《亚太经合组织(APEC):2022年APEC国家能源供需展望报告(第八版)-第二卷(英文版)(690页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《亚太经合组织(APEC):2022年APEC国家能源供需展望报告(第八版)-第二卷(英文版)(690页).pdf(690页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition 2022Volume 2Produced by:Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre(APERC)Inui Building,Kachidoki 11F,1-13-1 KachidokiChuo-ku,Tokyo 104-0054,JAPANTelephone:(81)3 5144 8551Fax:(81)3 5144 8555Email:masteraperc.or.jpWebsite:https:/aperc.or.jpFor:APEC Secretaria
2、t35 Heng Mui Keng Terrace,Singapore 119616Telephone:(65)68 919 600Fax:(65)68 919 690Email:infoapec.orgWebsite:https:/www.apec.orgAPEC#222-RE-01.10ISBN 978-981-18-5500-9 2022 APEC SecretariatAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|3The first APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook was p
3、ublished in 1998,when the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre(APERC)was just two years old.Since then,the Outlook has evolved to present data and analysis through periods of unprecedented growth and rapid change in the energy sector of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)region.Today,the glob
4、al energy sector is undergoing a rapid transformation while trying to balance security,affordability,and sustainability.The APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition highlights the reality that energy choices made in the APEC region will have impacts on energy security and the environment on
5、 the global level.The primary aim of this Outlook is to support APEC economies in achieving individual and collective energy objectives.It explores potential impacts of energy policies,technologies,and economics on future energy systems.The Outlook is also intended to serve as a point of reference f
6、or those wishing to become more informed about recent and potential future energy trends in the APEC region.The report includes two volumes:Volume 1 presents key trends and insights for the APEC region.Volume 2 presents an outlook for each of the 21 APEC economies.We undertook extensive analysis of
7、two scenarios to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead for the diverse energy systems of APEC economies.The Reference scenario(REF)illustrates the pathway that APEC is currently on,which includes the aspirational APEC energy goals of reducing energy intensity and doubling the share of re
8、newables in the energy system.There is growing momentum both globally and within APEC to further decarbonise energy systems towards net zero carbon emissions or carbon neutrality.To assist stakeholders,APERC developed a hypothetical pathway,the Carbon Neutrality scenario(CN),that illustrates ways fo
9、r APEC economies to simultaneously meet their development and decar-bonisation goals,while identifying challenges along the way.Our modelling analysis was completed before March 2022.The current disruptions in inter-national energy markets,including the impact of the Ukraine Crisis,are not considere
10、d in this edition of the Outlook.Analysis on those issues will be our future task in the next edition of the Outlook.Like the APEC energy systems,the Outlook is constantly evolving.The 8th Edition relies more heavily on visuals and emphasizes key messages,recognizing the need for dense and actionabl
11、e insights.The Outlook 8th Edition returns to using data submitted by APEC economies to the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis to form the basis of modelling and statistical analysis.This edition is the product of over three years of planning,intensive work,and collabora-tion by the APERC rese
12、arch team,under the leadership of Dr.David Wogan and Mr.Glen Sweetnam,and with contributions from experts across the 21 APEC economies and globally.It is my pleasure to present this edition of the Outlook.Dr.Kazutomo IRIEPresident,APERCForeword 4|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol
13、.2The development of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition would not have been possible without the contributions of many individuals and organisations within APECs 21 economies and globally.We would like to thank those whose support made this edition possible,particularly those who
14、participated in the APERC Annual Conference and those individuals and organisations below.We are grateful to The Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry,Japan,who sponsored our work and provided the primary funding for this project.We would also like to express our appreciation to members of the APEC
15、 Secretariat,APEC Energy Working Group(EWG),APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis(EGEDA),APERC Advisory Board,along with numerous government officials for their helpful information and comments throughout the development process of this report.OUTLOOK COORDINATORDavid Wogan,PhDLEAD AUTHORS 1
16、 Introduction:David Wogan Yu-Hsuan Wu;2 Energy Demand:Manuel Antonio Heredia Munoz(buildings)Mathew Horne(summary,industry)Hugh Marshall-Tate(transport)Finbar Maunsell(transport);3 Energy Supply:Christopher Doleman(summary,crude oil and NGLs,refined products)Phung Quoc Huy(coal)Diego Rivera Rivota(n
17、atural gas)Asmayati Ab Manan(natural gas)Ruengsak Thitiratsakul(refined products)Eri Nurcahyanto(liquid and solid biofuels)Ario Jati(liquid and solid biofuels)Manuel Antonio Heredia Munoz(Hydrogen);4 Power:Alexander Izhbuldin;5 APEC Goals:Nabih Matussin;6 CO2 Emissions:Nabih Matussin(CO2 emissions)M
18、athew Horne(carbon capture technologies)Finbar Maunsell(electric vehicles)Reiko Chiyoya(nuclear power);7Energy Security:Emily Medina Glen Sweetnam Thanan Marukatat;Annex:Phawida Jongsuwanwattana 1 Australia:Mathew Horne;2 Brunei Darussalam:Nabih Matussin;3 Canada:Christopher Doleman;4 Chile:Victor M
19、artinez Manuel Antonio Heredia Munoz;5 China:Xin Liu Reiko Chiyoya;6 Hong Kong,China:Asmayati Ab Manan;7 Indonesia:Eri Nurcahyanto Ario Jati;8 Japan:Nobuhiro Sawamura Reiko Chiyoya;9 Korea:Jeongdu Kim;10 Malaysia:Asmayati Ab Manan;11 Mexico:Diego Rivera Rivota Manuel Antonio Heredia Munoz Emily Medi
20、na;12 New Zealand:Hugh Marshall-Tate Mathew Horne;13 Papua New Guinea:Hugh Marshall-Tate Finbar Maunsell;14 Peru:Manuel Antonio Heredia Munoz;15 Philippines:Nabih Matussin;16 Russia:Alexander Izhbuldin;17 Singapore:Christopher Doleman;18 Chinese Taipei:Jeongdu Kim Yu-Hsuan Wu;19 Thailand:Ruengsak Th
21、itiratsakul Thanan Marukatat Phawida Jongsuwanwattana;20 United States:David Wogan Glen Sweetnam;21 Viet Nam:Phung Quoc HuyMODELLINGDavid Wogan(lead)Manuel Antonio Heredia Munoz(buildings)Zaharin Zulkifli(buildings)Mathew Horne(industry)Hugh Marshall-Tate(transport)Diego Rivera Rivota(agriculture an
22、d others)Gigih Udi Atmo(power and heat)Victor Martinez(power and heat)Ruengsak Thitiratsakul(refining)Christopher Doleman(supply and trade)Mathew Horne(data and visualisations)OTHER CONTRIBUTORSMunehisa Yamashiro James Kendell Edito Barcelona Elvira Torres Gelindon Risa Pancho Xin Liu Jun Fang Gigih
23、 Udi Atmo Zaharin Zulkifli Nobuhiro Sawamura Fifi Indarwati Alexey Kabalinskiy Nguyen Linh Dan Junseon Mun Yiyi Ju Fang-Chia LeeGRAPHICS AND LAYOUTDavid Wogan Mathew Horne Asmayati Ab Manan Urban ConnectionsThe Outlook is an independent study of APERC and does not necessarily feature the views or po
24、licies of APEC member economies.AcknowledgementsAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|5ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORTYoshihiro Hatano Takako Hannon Yukiko Koyanagi Siuning Lai Tomoyo Kukimoto Eri Osanai Mitsunori Yokoyama Masakazu TachikawaAPERC ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERSAllan Fogwill(Petroleu
25、m Technology Alliance Canada)Zhou Dadi(Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission)Sanjayan Velautham(National Energy University)Tatsuya Terasawa(Institute of Energy Economics,Japan)Chun-taek Rim(Korea Energy Economics Institute)Cary Neal Bloyd(Pacific Northwest National Lab
26、oratory)Nan Zhou(Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)Takato Ojimi(Former APERC President)Tatiana Mitrova(Columbia University)Kulyos Audomvongseree(Energy Research Institute,Chulalongkorn University)Nuki Agya Utama(ASEAN Centre for Energy)Wayne Calder(Department of Industry,Science,Energy and Resou
27、rces,Australia)EXTERNAL EXPERTSFormer APERC Senior Vice President:James Kendell;Former EWG Lead Shepherd:Jyuung-Shiauu Chern;Institute of Energy Economics,Japan:Masakazu Toyoda Naoko Doi Shigeru Suehiro Akira Yanagisawa Yujhi Matsuo Takahiko Tagami Kenji Kimura Seiya Endo Yoshikazu Kobayshi Yukari Y
28、amashita;Agora Energiewende:Tharinya Supassa;Aramco:Xin He;Asian Development Bank Institute:Dina Azhgaliyeva;ASEAN Centre for Energy:Beni Suryadi;Atlantic Council:Phyllis Yoshida;BP:Jorge Blazquez Will Zimmern Michael Cohen;Canon Institute for Global Studies:Taishi Sugiyama;Center for Strategic and
29、International Studies:Jane Nakano;Chalmers University of Technology:Sonia Yeh David Daniels;ChemePD:Joseph Powell;ClimateWorks Foundation:Rebecca Dell;Columbia University:Anne-Sophie Corbeau Melissa C.Lott;Edison Electric Institute:Lawrence Jones;Enzen Australia:Ian McLeod;EPRINC:Ivan Sandrea(truste
30、e);Global CCS Institute:Dominic Rassool Eric Williams;HINICIO:Hans Kulenkampff;IEA:Laura Cozzi;IEF:Joseph McMonigle;IRENA:Ricardo Gorini Nicholas Wagner;Java Bali Dispatch Center:Suroso Isnandar;King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center:Adam Sieminski Axel Pierru;King Abdullah University o
31、f Science and Technology:David R.Pugh;Korea Energy Economics Institute:Yongsung Cho;KTH Royal Institute of Technology:Will Usher;Kyoto University:Shinichiro Fujimori Keiichi Ishihara;Loughborough University:Mark Howells;Majura Energy:Douglas Cooke;Melentiev Energy Systems Institute:Sergei Popov;Mini
32、stry of Energy and Natural Resources,Malaysia:Sandrea Hazrey Tomyang;The National Bureau of Asian Research:Clara Gillespie Ashley Johnson;Newcastle University:Janusz Bialek;POSCO Research Institute:Yoon Ghi Ahn;Princeton University:June Park;Rice University:Michelle Michot-Foss Peter Hartley Ken Med
33、lock,III;Rocky Mountain Institute:Rizky Fauzianto;The Stimson Center:Courtney Weatherby;Stony Brook University:Gang He;Sumitomo Chemical:Bunro Shiozawa;United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific:Matthew Wittenstein;University of Dundee:Jennifer Considine;The University of
34、 Texas at Austin:Benjamin D.Leibowicz;The University of Tokyo:Masahiro Sugiyama;Temple University:Frederic Murphy;Wilson Center:Jim Slutz;Former Senior Researcher at APERC:Juan Roberto Lozano-MayaECONOMY EXPERTSAustralia:Thomas Willcock Wayne Calder Allison Ball Michael Nelson;Brunei Darussalam:Izma
35、 Rahem Zukhairri bin Abdul Zani Siti Nur Asyiqin binti Abdul Khalid;Canada:Matthew Hansen Michael Nadew Bryce van Sluys Amro Tonbol Christine Martel-Fleming Melanie Vien-Walker Glasha Obrrekht Robin White Khodeu Thuo Zhagnin Kossa Kevin Palmer-Wilson Thomas Dandres Gavin Cook;Chile:Charlotte Petier
36、Carlos Mancilla Carlos Toro Ruben Mancilla;China:Liu Chang Wang Yanhong;Hong Kong,China:Kei Ming Barry Chu Hok Yin Arthur Lee Kim Kong Mak Man Chit Jovian Cheung Sin Man Becky Chim;Indonesia:Saleh Abdurrahman Havidh Nazif Pramudya Catur Budi Kurniadi;Japan:Tetsurou Ito Daisuke Hayamizu;Korea:You Kim
37、 Jinyeong Han Yeon Lee Daeun Yoon Semin Kim Byunguk Kang Sooil Kim Doyoung Choi Woongtae Chung Yujeong Seo Bohye Lee Taeheon Kim Sooin Kim;Malaysia:Muhamad Izham Abd Shukor;Mexico:Fuentes Velvet Rosemberg;New Zealand:Kam Szeto Daniel Griffiths Bertrand Ngai Jessica Escaip;Papua New Guinea:Idau Kopi
38、Jason Paniu Alfred Rungol Warea Undi Vore Vere;Peru:Luis Vilchez;Philippines:Diana Christine L.Gabito Michael O.Sinocruz;Russia:Parvina Kamolova;Singapore:T Deebagar Lucious Tan Agnes Koh Regina Lee;Chinese Taipei:Chuang Ming Chih;Thailand:Twarath Sutabutr Weerawat Chantanakome Nuwong Chollacoop Ati
39、t Tippichai Ruengsak Thitiratsakul Weerin Wangjiraniran Nitida Nakapreecha Jakapong Pongthanaisawan;United States:Ariadne BenAissa Ron Cherry;Viet Nam:Pham Quynh Mai Vu Lien Huong Nguyen Anh Tuan Nguyen Hoang Anh 6|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2Table of ContentsForeword 3Int
40、roduction 7APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition 8Scenarios in the 8th Edition 9Components of the APEC energy system 101.Australia 112.Brunei Darussalam 453.Canada 754.Chile 1095.China 1416.Hong Kong,China 1737.Indonesia 2058.Japan 2379.Korea 26910.Malaysia 30311.Mexico 33512.New Zealand
41、 36713.Papua New Guinea 40114.Peru 42715.The Philippines 45916.Russia 49317.Singapore 52318.Chinese Taipei 55519.Thailand 58720.United States 62121.Viet Nam 653Annex 687Introduction 8|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2Introduction TPublished since 1998,the APEC Energy Demand and
42、 Supply Outlook provides objective and rigorous analysis of potential future energy demand and supply for the 21 APEC member economies.The Outlook presents progress on two APEC EWG energy-related goals and key opportunities and barriers for policymakers.TThe Outlook 8th Edition contains two volumes.
43、Volume 1 covers APEC-wide trends beginning with a look at aggregate energy demand in Chapter 2.TElectricity generation and power capacity are reported in Chapter 3.TNew in this edition,energy supply is presented by fuel(Chapter 4),enabling a convenient resource of major energy carriers.TThe APEC ene
44、rgy intensity and modern renewables share doubling goals are assessed in Chapter 5.Progress on the energy intensity goal is reported for final energy and energy supply.TChapter 6 reports projected CO2 emissions,including a breakdown by components.Three technologies(CCS,electric vehicles,and nuclear)
45、are highlighted to showcase their potential,risks,and uncertainties in future energy mixes.TFinally,several conventional and nascent energy security themes are presented for oil,natural gas,and electricity(Chapter 7).TVolume 2 provides demand and supply projections for all 21 APEC economies.TImporta
46、nt updates have been made for the Outlook 8th Edition.First,historical data is now provided by the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis(EGEDA),a workstream of the APEC Energy Working Group.TThis historical data provides the foundation for the projections and analysis.Historical energy balance da
47、ta is shown for the years 2000 through 2018.TThe base year is 2018 with projections continuing until 2050.TThe energy units have been changed from million tonnes of oil equivalent(MTOE)to petajoules(PJ).Electricity generation is still reported in terawatt-hours(TWh),and power capacity is provided in
48、 gigawatts(GW).TDetailed tables are provided along with this report.APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th EditionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|9Introduction TThe APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition contains two scenarios.The hypothetical pathways presented
49、 in the Outlook are intended to provide reference material to support APEC member economies in navigating the uncertain energy system landscape.TGiven the large uncertaintyabout the future,the two scenarios are intended toillus-tratehow assumptions and trends shapeenergy supply and demand.TThe Refer
50、encescenario(REF)is a pathwaywhere existing trends in technologydevelop-ment and deployment,and policyframeworks continue in a similar manner.TOn the demand side,energy efficiency and fuel economy standards continue to improvegradually.Electric vehicles become increasingly prominent in the transport
51、 sector.Gradualimprovements in energyefficiency and fuel switching occur in industry,and in the powersector,fuel switching from coal to gas andtowards renewables accelerates.Global demand for oil,gas,andcoal remains robust,offering an exportmarket for APEC energy producers.TThe Carbon Neutrality sce
52、nario(CN)outlines a potential pathway whereenergy effi-ciency,fuel switching,andtechnological advancement leads to a significant reduction inCO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustionout to 2050.TTechnology maturity and commercialavailability are key assumptions in CN.Hydrogen supply chainsblue and g
53、reenare assumed to be available at scale from 2030 to serve end-use applications in buildings,industry,and transport.While technically possible,hydrogenconsumption by the power sector is notconsidered.TThere is a small uptake of CCS use in industry and hydrogen production in REF.CCS becomes far more
54、 commercially viable in CN and is utilised in greaterquantities by industry,power,hydrogen production,and own use sectors from the 2030s.TCN is intended to illustrate the magnitude of CO2 emissions reductionspossible in the context of the assumptionsmade about technology diffusion,costs,andglobal tr
55、ends.TCN can be used to quantify the magnitude of remaining CO2 emissions that would requirefurther action from policymakers,industryparticipants,and researchers.ScenariosReference(REF)Carbon Neutrality(CN)DefinitionRecent trends and current policiesInvestigates hypothetical decarbonisation pathways
56、 for the energy sector of each APEC economy to attain carbon neutrality.PurposeProvides a baseline for comparison with the Carbon Neutrality scenario.Explores additional energy sector transformations that could support decarbonisation objectives.Key assumptionsCurrent polices;trends in energy effici
57、ency,and renewable energy deployment;and initial steps towards decarbonisation are included.Decarbonisation measures and timeframes are based on the unique characteristics,policy objectives,and starting points of each economy.Increased levels of energy efficiency,behavioral changes,fuel switching,an
58、d CCUS deployment are implemented.CO2 removal technologies are not investigated.LimitationsAssumes that recent trends,including relevant decarbonisation measures,are not altered.Does not consider non-energy impacts on CO2 emissions(for example,land-use change,non-combustion of fuels)or CO2 removal(f
59、or example,direct air capture).Note:Key assumptions are available on the next page.Scenarios in the 8th Edition 10|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2IntroductionComponents of the APEC energy systemProductionDomestic production of coal,natural gas,oil,and NGLs.BuildingsActivities
60、 in the residential and services sub-sectors:lighting,heating,cooling,and cooking.IndustryActivities in the iron&steel,chemicals,aluminium,non-metallics,mining,pulp&paper,and non-specified sub-sectors.Power and heatProduction of electricity and heat using fossil fuel,renewable,and nuclear technologi
61、es.HydrogenProduction using fossil fuels and renewablesRefiningProduction of refined productsTransportPassenger and freight activities in the road,rail,marine,and air modes.Agriculture and othersAgricultural,own use,non-specified,and other activities.Non-energyUse of feedstocks to produce non-energy
62、 goods such as fertilizers and plastics.Energy TradeImports and exports of coal,natural gas,oil,refined products,and hydrogen.SupplyDemandTransformation1.Australia 12|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaDemand TAustralias population growth and output/activity growth is
63、mostly offset by improvements in energy efficiency in REF,with energy consumption only marginally higher in 2050 rela-tive to its pre-COVID peak.Energy demand falls by one-quarter in CN due to widespread electrification and greater levels of energy efficiency.TElectricity accounts for almost half of
64、 all end-use energy demand in 2050 in CN.Refined products see a very large decline,displaced mostly by electricity,particularly in the trans-port sector.TThe development of unconventional gas fields in Queensland to supply markets in Asia has coincided with significant domestic natural gas price inc
65、reases in the 2010s.Electricity is now the most economic fuel choice for many end-use applications in most regions in Australia,which limits domestic gas consumption growth in both scenarios.TTransport is the largest energy consuming sector in Australia,accounting for over 40%of all end-use energy d
66、emand before the pandemic.In CN,greater fuel efficiency,electrifi-cation,and hybridisation leads to gasoline falling 80%,and diesel falling two-thirds,out to 2050.Supply TAustralia is a large energy exporter,producing more than three times the level of energy that it consumes.TAlmost 90%of Australia
67、s current coal production is exported.Metallurgical coal will become relatively more important for Australia in both scenarios due to diminishing global prospects for thermal coal.TRenewables almost triple in Australias energy supply over the projection period in REF.This growth is exceeded in CN,wi
68、th renewables growing almost five-fold and accounting for over half of Australias energy supply in 2050.TDevelopment of unconventional gas resources in the Surat and Bowen basins has been the basis for LNG export terminals in Gladstone,Queensland.Additional export-driven production in Western Austra
69、lia and the Northern Territory has seen natural gas produc-tion increase from below 2 000 PJ in 2010 to almost 5 000 PJ before the pandemic.Natural gas production and exports are expected to maintain current levels in REF,while declining by a quarter in CN.Power TElectricity generation is projected
70、to increase by almost a third in REF and by almost three-quarters in CN,owing to widespread electrification in almost all areas of the economy.TThe installed capacity of Australias power sector undergoes transformational change in both scenarios.The growth of solar,wind,and storage continues at a ra
71、pid pace,with total capacity increasing by two-and-a-half times in REF and by almost three-and-a-half times in CN.TDomestic natural gas supply is likely to remain difficult to secure at competitive prices,meaning that natural gas generation does not increase in either scenario.However,natural gas re
72、mains an important fuel to meet the challenge of variable renewable gener-ation.CCS technology is incorporated in CN to maintain this role while meeting emissions reductions goals.TAustralian residential rooftop solar has posted world-beating growth over the last decade and will continue to grow str
73、ongly in both scenarios.TThere is a slightly faster phase-out of coal in CN,with the last remaining coal-fired power plant closing in the 2040s.CO2 emissions TIn REF,the continued phase-out of domestic coal-fired power plants and rise of renewable generation capacity will see power sector CO2 emissi
74、ons decline by two-thirds to 2050.Power sector emissions reductions are 90%in CN,with transport,industry,and own use sectors contributing to significant additional reductions.TEnergy sector CO2 emissions in 2050 of just under 80 million tonnes will need to be offset by the non-energy sectors to achi
75、eve carbon neutrality.Hydrogen TThe market for hydrogen advances rapidly in CN,with multiple industry and transport use cases fueling robust global trade.Australian hydrogen production from natural gas with CCS and from electrolysis grows to over 300 PJ by 2050,supporting exports of 200 PJ.Highlight
76、sAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|131.Australia TAustralia has abundant natural resources,a highly-skilled populace,and one of the highest standards of living in APEC.TAustralias GDP and emissions per capita are double the per capita values for the APEC region.TAustralias ener
77、gy exports were only exceeded by Russia and the US in 2018.The rapid growth in east coast LNG exports in recent years has seen Australia surpass Qatar to become the largest global LNG exporter.However,Russia and the US still export far greater volumes of natural gas from pipelines and LNG capacity o
78、f their own.TCoal is extremely abundant in Australia,with most production of thermal coal and metal-lurgical coal exported to Asia.There will continue to be a role for coal to feed Australian coal-fired power plants,though that role is diminishing with a fleet that is nearing the end of its lifecycl
79、e.TOil deposits are relatively scarce in Australia and the small amount of annual production is largely exported.Domestic refineries are typically configured to process light-sweet blends of crude rather than the heavy-sour extracted locally.Closure of two of the remaining four refineries in Austral
80、ia in 2021 means that Australias fuel security will be more reliant on securing refined products imports rather than crude oil imports.TAustralia is home to the largest reserves of recoverable uranium in the world.Domestic use cases do not currently exist,though the industry has potential to establi
81、sh itself should nuclear power see a resurgence to assist with meeting emissions reduction goals.TAustralia has a very large land mass combined with a relatively small population.Yet Australia has one of the highest urbanisation rates in the world.Most people live in the south-east corner and on the
82、 east coast.Large portions of the rest of the continent are classified as desert with scarce water resources that are effectively uninhabitable.Table 1-1.Economy statistics,20182018APEC shareAPEC rankingPopulation250.9%14GDP1 2621.8%11TPES5 3601.6%10Production17 2315.1%6Imports2 2291.8%11Exports13 9
83、2913%3Electricity generation2611.5%10Heat production0.00.0%-CO2 emissions3761.8%9Notes:Population(millions),GDP(billion 2018 USD PPP),energy(PJ),electricity(TWh),CO2(million tonnes).Table 1-2.Energy resourcesProved reservesYears of productionShare of world reservesAPEC ranking(reserves)Coal2 650 000
84、31514.0%3Natural gas86 000171.3%4Oil14 600140.1%9Uranium1 692 70025527.5%1Notes:Coal,natural gas,and oil(PJ)in 2020 from BP.Uranium(tonnes)recoverable at 130 USD kgU at end of 2019 from OECD.See Appendix for conversion to other units.About Australia 14|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Editi
85、on,Vol.21.Australia TAustralias updated NDC:Australia announced a commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 in October 2021 as part of the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties in Glasgow(COP26).The commitment relies primarily on tech-nological innovation supported by a
86、 technology investment roadmap rather than direct emissions policies.TCoal and natural gas exports:Coal and natural gas are the second and third largest exports for Australia(behind iron ore).While there is no direct government involvement in the extraction of these commodities,both state and federa
87、l governments derive royalties and tax receipts from these activities.Despite building momentum for global decarbonisa-tion,demand for Australias coal and gas resources is almost certain to persist for multiple decades.There are no policies constraining Australian supply of these commodities on the
88、basis that a forced reduction in Australian production will be offset by production from other global suppliers.TNet-zero emissions:The technology investment roadmap that underpins Australias updated NDC and net-zero commitment prioritises clean hydrogen,electricity storage,low emissions steel and a
89、luminium,carbon capture and storage,soil carbon sequestra-tion,and ultra low-cost solar.These priorities will be reviewed and updated annually with advice from an expert group of science,business,technology,and government leaders.TDomestic emissions projections have Australia meeting its 2030 NDC:Th
90、e Australian government has consistently overestimated its projected emissions trajectory for over a decade.These overestimates have meant that Australia was projected to fall short of its NDC of a 26%to 28%emissions reduction by 2030 relative to 2005.By updating economic activity forecasts,technolo
91、gy assumptions,and including new government policies,Australias 2021 projections show that there will be a 30%to 35%reduction by 2030.This new calculation does not rely on overachievement from the first commitment of the Kyoto Protocol(20082012),which had been previously cited as a way for Australia
92、 to meet its NDC.TNational Energy Productivity Plan and relationship with emissions trajectory trends:The consistently lower-than-projected emissions trajectory of the last decade has been largely due to the decline in coal-fired power generation.This decline is mostly due to the rapid rise in rooft
93、op solar,as well as the increasing pace in rollout of both utility-scale solar and wind.The suite of energy demand side policies,such as those under the umbrella of the National Energy Productivity Plan 20152030,have played a relatively small role in reducing energy consumption and emissions.Impleme
94、ntation of such policies will become more important in reducing emissions as the gains from the coal-fired power phase-out slow.TIncreased reliance on refined products imports:Large distances between Australias population centres is one of the reasons why transport is the largest energy-consuming se
95、ctor.Gasoline and diesel remain the most important fuel sources for this sector,with much of this supply reliant on imports.This reliance increased in 2021 following the decom-missioning of two of Australias four remaining refineries.The Australian government has made commitments to support the rema
96、ining two refineries,Lytton in Queensland and Geelong in Victoria,to operate until at least 2027.The refinery closures mean additional imports of refined products have supplanted imports of crude oil for refining in fuel secu-rity considerations.TEnergy security:Australia has been non-compliant with
97、 the IEA 90 days of oil stock requirement since 2012.The federal government signed an agreement with the US in 2020 to lease a portion of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a commitment to return Australia to compliance by 2026.Note:Policy context and notable developments are current as o
98、f October 2021.Energy policy context and recent developmentsAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|151.Australia TIn the lead-up to finalising the modelling for this version of the Outlook,many econo-mies in APEC(and throughout the world)have made commitments to achieving carbon neu
99、trality.TAustralias whole-of-economy plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 was made on the eve of COP26 Glasgow.The commitment is reliant on technological innovation rather than emissions policies.TFor the modelling in this report,the Reference scenario(REF)and the Carbon Neutrality scenario(CN
100、)were developed prior to Australias net-zero commitment.TThe REF and CN are reliant on the same GDP and population projections.However,CN incorporates some adjustments,such as increased material efficiency in industry(less production required to deliver the same output).TIn REF,developments in energ
101、y efficiency and fuel switching mostly follow the historical trends of recent decades.For CN,more optimistic assumptions are imposed,driven by either explicit or implicit policy intervention.TOn the supply side,production of energy commodities accounts for the evolving domestic and APEC energy deman
102、d.Assumptions for the rest of the world,are simplified and top-down(rather than more bottom-up assumptions for APEC economies).TThe CN involves assumptions that lead to positive CO2 emissions in 2050 for the Australian energy sector.It is beyond the scope of this report to model the non-energy secto
103、rs,such as land use,land-use change,and forestry.However,the implicit assumption is that the other sectors will deliver negative emissions,and thus deliver a carbon-neutral outcome.TThe CN makes explicit assumptions that trace a trajectory for energy and CO2 emissions out to 2050.The assumptions del
104、iver one credible path for Australia to meet decarbonisa-tion ambitions while maintaining economic prosperity.The ultimate path Australia takes is almost certain to differ from the one that is laid out by the modelling,and there are many possible paths for Australia to take.Table 1-3.ScenariosRefere
105、nce(REF)Carbon Neutrality(CN)DefinitionRecent trends and current policiesInvestigates hypothetical decarbonisation pathways for the energy sector of each APEC economy to attain carbon neutrality.PurposeProvides a baseline for comparison with the Carbon Neutrality scenario.Explores additional energy
106、sector transformations that could support decarbonisation objectives.Key assumptionsCurrent polices;trends in energy efficiency,and renewable energy deployment;and initial steps towards decarbonisation are included.Decarbonisation measures and timeframes are based on the unique characteristics,polic
107、y objectives,and starting points of each economy.Increased levels of energy efficiency,behavioral changes,fuel switching,and CCUS deployment are implemented.CO2 removal technologies are not investigated.LimitationsAssumes that recent trends,including relevant decarbonisation measures,are not altered
108、.Does not consider non-energy impacts on CO2 emissions(for example,land-use change,non-combustion of fuels)or CO2 removal(for example,direct air capture).Note:Key assumptions are available on the next page.Scenarios in the 8th Edition 16|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.Austr
109、aliaTable 1-4.Key assumptions for the Reference and Carbon Neutrality scenariosReferenceCarbon NeutralityGeneral REF incorporates recent trends and in-place policies and does not assume that aggressive action will be taken to meet global emissions reduction goals.CN incorporates bottom-up changes fr
110、om all sectors to deliver lower levels of energy intensity and carbon intensity.Buildings Improvements in appliance energy efficiency through labelling and other measures.Commercial Building Disclosure Program promotes energy efficiency in commercial buildings.More stringent energy efficiency standa
111、rds for new buildings and improved retrofits lead to higher energy savings in buildings.Much higher levels of electrification than in REF,particularly for heating.Very large increase of solar energy in water heating.Industry Small uptake of CCS and hydrogen in heavy industries closer to the end of t
112、he modelling period.Some fuel switching to biomass,natural gas and electricity.Historic level of improvements in energy efficiency and electrification continues.Greater uptake of hydrogen and CCS than in REF for heavy industries.Higher levels of electrification,energy efficiency,and fuel switching a
113、way from fossil fuels.Technological change sees less production of steel,cement,and chemicals to achieve the same level of final products(material efficiency).Increase in critical minerals mining.Transport Strong population growth fuels demand growth but this is offset by continued improvements in f
114、uel efficiency.EV sales grow rapidly;60%share of passenger vehicle sales by 2035.Heavy truck battery EVs and fuel cell EVs sales grow to 30%and 10%of sales.Improved fuel efficiency and hybridisation.Power Thermal coal/lignite capacity is slowly retired out to 2050 and there are no new coal-fired pow
115、er plants.Snowy Hydro 2.0 begins operating with two GW of capacity in 2025.Offshore wind development is relatively conservative Sun Cable electricity exports begin in 2028,though development is driven by Singapores climate ambitions,rather than Australias.Natural gas with CCS technology is adopted s
116、o that natural gas still plays a transition role while Australia meets ambitious emissions reductions goals.Slightly faster coal phase-out in the latter half of the projection than in REF.Supply Gas production is constrained by the high costs of coal-seam gas.LNG import terminals come online in 2027
117、.LNG exports are constrained near current levels due to cost and competition from lower-cost producers.Coal export markets are determined by APERC demand trends.Domestic demand for natural gas is partially met by falling natural gas exports.Green hydrogen projects are promoted,with demand for Austra
118、lias hydrogen exports predominantly from Japan and Korea(global hydrogen demand calculations are based on the IEA global development scenario for 2019 to 2070).As in REF,the two remaining refineries are assumed to continue operating through the projection period for fuel security reasons.Climate CO2
119、 emissions trajectory is not consistent with Australias NDC of a 26%to 28%reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 relative to 2005.Achieves CO2 emissions reductions that are close to what will be required for Australias NDC in 2030 and 2050.Positive emissions in 2050 are assumed to be offset b
120、y non-energy sectors.Notes:The base year is 2018.Projections begin in 2018.Macro-economic assumptions are constant across scenarios.Historical energy balances are from EGEDA submissions for 2018(published June 2021).Key assumptions for AustraliaAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2
121、|171.AustraliaMacroeconomic backdrop TAustralias population has grown from 19 million at the turn of the century to almost 26 million in 2021.TThis population growth is higher than most other developed economies and is driven primarily by a large migration program,rather than a high natural birth ra
122、te.TCOVID-19 has seen population growth slow,though federal and state level governments are planning to increase migration significantly once borders begin to open in a post-pan-demic world.TPopulation growth to 2050 is assumed to be at the upper bound of the UN DESA 2019 estimates,reaching over 35
123、million people.This projection lands on the lower end of domestic projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics,that estimate population to be between 34 and 41 million people in 2050,depending largely on the size of Australias migrant intake.TRelatively high population growth provides signif
124、icant support to GDP growth,which is assumed to more than double from the 2020 COVID-19 trough to over USD 2.8 trillion on a purchase power parity(PPP)basis in 2050.TAustralia has per capita GDP of over USD 50 000 on a PPP basis in 2018,placing it sixth in APEC.Before COVID,median real household inc
125、ome had plateaued since the Global Financial Crisis,with the significant rise in real GDP matched by a similarly large growth in population.TAustralias sovereign debt levels have increased markedly in response to the COVID pandemic to now be at 93%of GDP.A relatively small portion of the COVID-19 st
126、imulus is flowing directly into the energy sector with the federal government providing subsidies to oil refineries and providing grants to assist with building additional diesel storage.Notes:Historical GDP data from World Bank WDI.GDP projections from OECD and internal analysis.COVID-19 impact on
127、GDP is incorporated in the 2020-2025 timeframe based on IMF projections(May 2021).Figure 1-1.GDP in billion 2018 USD PPP,2000-2050Figure 1-2.Population in millions,2000-2050Notes:Historical population data from World Bank WDI.Projections from UN DESA 2019 Population Prospectus.0 500 1 000 1 500 2 00
128、0 2 500 3 0002000200402050Projection 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 402000200402050Projection 18|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaEnd-use energy demand TRefined products(oil)dominate end-use energy demand in Australia largely due to the prominence of the
129、 transport sector.TWhile most people live in urban areas,the distance between cities requires a large consumption of energy to move people,goods,and resources between the different population centres.TPopulation and GDP growth does not lead to significant additional energy consumption in REF out to
130、2050,as energy efficiency and electrification temper energy demand from most fuel sources.TThe CN sees a significant reduction in energy demand,falling by 26%to 2050 from the pre-COVID peak.TElectricity grows substantially in CN,accounting for almost half of all end-use energy demand in 2050.Oil and
131、 gas see a very large decline,displaced by electricity,particularly in the transport sector.Energy efficiency improvements also contribute to the decline.TSmall amounts of hydrogen adoption takes place in REF.End-use hydrogen adoption occurs earlier and at a faster rate in CN,reaching almost 85 PJ i
132、n 2050.The transport sector accounts for most of this consumption.There is less capacity for industry to incorporate hydrogen given that many heavy industry pursuits have been offshored in recent decades.It is unlikely that these industrial pursuits can be resurrected.TThe CN sees a large increase i
133、n demand for liquid biofuels by aviation applications in the transport sector.Biomass consumption by the industry sector remains robust,albeit at a lower level than in REF.In contrast,biomass consumption by the buildings sector falls away,mostly displaced by electricity.TOil was the fuel most impact
134、ed by the COVID-19 pandemic,with demand falling by 10%in 2020,due to the large decrease in transport activity.The fall in consumption of all other fuels was typically less than 5%.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Includes non-energy.Figure 1-3.Energy demand in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-4.Energy dem
135、and in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Includes non-energy.0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 0002000200402050OthersElectricityHydrogenBiomassOther renewablesGasOilCoalProjection 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 0002000200402050OthersElectr
136、icityHydrogenBiomassOther renewablesGasOilCoalProjectionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|191.AustraliaEnd-use energy demand by sector TAustralias population growth and output/activity growth is mostly offset by improvements in energy efficiency in REF,with energy consumption o
137、nly marginally higher in 2050 rela-tive to the pre-COVID peak.TRelative consumption by the energy sectors remains consistent through the outlook to 2050 in REF.In contrast,the large decrease in transport demand in CN means that industry becomes just as prominent in energy consumption as the transpor
138、t sector in 2050.Both sectors account for almost two-thirds of end-use energy consumption at the end of the projection period.TIn CN,transport sector energy consumption falls by more than 40%out to 2050.Greater efficiency,driven primarily by electrification of the light vehicle fleet,accounts for mu
139、ch of this decline.Energy consumption falls by between 10%and 20%in the buildings,industry,agriculture,and non-energy sectors.TFor buildings,the persistence of the existing stock,and an already high share of electricity,limits energy use reductions in CN.TIndustry sector energy consumption in CN is
140、four-fifths of REF levels in 2050.There is a large increase in critical minerals mining activity in CN,but much of this increase in activity is offset by energy efficiency gains.All other industry subsectors consume less energy due to material efficiency(in heavy industry)and energy efficiency impro
141、vements.TAgricultural energy consumption has grown by almost two-thirds in the last two decades due to significant growth in agricultural output that supplies both domestic and interna-tional markets.Growth slows in the REF projection period due to greater levels of energy efficiency that partially
142、offsets growth in output.Agriculture energy consumption increases by 15%out to 2050 in REF.TIn CN,greater levels of energy efficiency see agricultural energy consumption fall by 20%out to 2050.Diesel and other oil product consumption falls by 40%due to significant electrification.Electricity consump
143、tion by agricultural activities almost quadruples over the projection period.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Includes non-energy.Figure 1-5.Energy demand by sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-6.Energy demand by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Includes non-energy.0 500
144、1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 0002000200402050Non-specifiedNon-energyAgricultureBuildingsTransportIndustryProjection 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 0002000200402050Non-specifiedNon-energyAgricultureBuildingsTransportIndustryProjection 20|APEC Energy Demand
145、and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaBuildings energy demand TAustralia is not subject to the cold weather climatic extremes that are characteristic of APEC economies such as Canada,China,Japan,Korea,Russia,and the US.However,there is still significant climatic variability in the places th
146、at Australians live that necessi-tates both heating and cooling,depending on the location.TSouthern regions in Australia have historically relied on cheap conventional gas from the Gippsland and Ottaway Basin to meet domestic heating demand in winter.Declining gas production from these legacy basins
147、 has led to greater reliance on unconventional gas fields in Queensland at higher prices.Electricity is now the most economic fuel choice for heating in most regions in Australia,which places a ceiling on the growth in gas demand in both scenarios.TElectricity is projected to account for over 70%of
148、buildings energy consumption in CN in 2050.Whereas the share of gas falls by almost half over the projection period,with electricity taking most of its share.TSolar water heaters comprise most other renewables and grow by almost 60%in REF.This level of growth is dwarfed in CN,with other renewables g
149、rowing five-fold over the course of the projection period.Solar water heaters complement rooftop solar PV due to their assumed continuing advantage at delivering lowest-cost water heating.TCOVID-19 saw a decline in energy consumption in 2020 due to lockdowns that forced many commercial businesses to
150、 close or reduce operating hours.Reduced commercial buildings energy consumption was partly counteracted by an increase in residential energy consumption,due to increased time spent at home for many Australians.TIn CN,buildings energy consumption is 15%lower than REF by the end of the projec-tion pe
151、riod.LPG and diesel fall to very low levels,with batteries(electricity)increasingly providing back-up energy,supported by higher levels of grid connectivity and off-grid solutions.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-7.Buildings energy demand in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-8.Buildings energy demand i
152、n CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 9002000200402050ElectricityBiomassOther renewablesGasOilCoalProjection 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 9002000200402050ElectricityBiomassOther renewablesGasOilCoalProjectionAPEC Energy Demand and
153、 Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|211.AustraliaIndustry energy demand TAustralian manufacturing is in a multi-decade decline in terms of contribution to GDP and level of employment.Mining is the most prominent counterpoint to this trend,with demand from China fueling a commodities boom in Australia
154、through the 2000s and most of the 2010s.Mining and resource extraction of energy and non-energy commodities is likely to remain elevated,though there is limited capacity for continued growth.Even with the boom,minerals mining only accounted for one-fifth of industrial energy consumption in 2018.TDes
155、pite the fall in manufacturing,industrial energy consumption has remained relatively stable in the two decades prior to the COVID pandemic.TLNG exports have linked Australias east coast gas market with international markets for gas.Price increases have contributed to difficulties for some industrial
156、 natural gas users being able to secure long-term gas supply contracts.Continued tight natural gas markets are assumed to place a ceiling on industrial gas consumption for the projection period.TWhile there is likely to be a reduction in natural gas intensive industries,there is an assumed pivot to
157、higher value-add manufacturing industries that are more reliant on elec-tricity rather than primary energy fuels.This trend is assumed to be more prominent in CN,with electricity accounting for almost half of the total industrial energy demand in 2050.Electricity consumption is slightly less than a
158、third in REF.TElectrification occurs in most of the non-heavy industry subsectors.Mining is particularly influential in reducing diesel consumption,with refined products falling by 36%,mostly in favour of electricity in CN.Coal mining is expected to fall significantly in CN(as shown in the supply se
159、ction and captured by own use).However,these falls are likely to be offset by increased mining of critical minerals(captured in industry).TCoal consumption is prominent in heavy industry subsectors such as steel and cement production.Material and energy efficiency improvements,electrification,and sw
160、itching to hydrogen and biomass for certain processes sees coal consumption fall by almost two-thirds in CN.Note:Energy commodity(coal,oil,and gas)mining energy consumption is captured within own use.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Non-energy is not shown.Figure 1-9.Industry energy demand in REF,2
161、000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-10.Industry energy demand in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Non-energy is not shown.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 2002000200402050OthersElectricityHydrogenBiomassGasOilCoalProjection 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 2002000200402050OthersElectricity
162、HydrogenBiomassGasOilCoalProjection 22|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaTransport energy demand TTransport is the largest energy consuming sector in Australia,accounting for over 40%of all end-use energy demand before the COVID pandemic.TDiesel consumption has increa
163、sed significantly since 2000 and is now at similar levels to gasoline.This growth has been tied to growing consumer preference for diesel vehicles,increasing road freight transport,and increasing rail freight that has accompanied the resources boom of the 2000s and 2010s.TThe impact of COVID was mos
164、t pronounced for the aviation sector,with jet fuel consump-tion almost halving in 2020.In contrast,diesel demand remained robust in 2020 due to its importance in maintaining freight and mining operations.A decrease in passenger trips resulting from lockdowns had the largest impact on gasoline consum
165、ption and meant that diesel became the most prominent transport fuel for the first time.TAustralia has typically relied on vehicle efficiency standards from international jurisdictions rather than instituting standards of its own.This has meant that the Australian market exhibits fuel efficiency tha
166、t is below the frontier of advanced APEC economies such as Japan and Korea.TElectric vehicle sales grow rapidly in CN,reaching a 60%share of passenger vehicle sales,and 40%share of heavy truck sales(battery electric and fuel-cell electric),by 2035.By 2050,all vehicle sales are battery electric or fu
167、el cell electric.TIn CN,greater fuel efficiency and electrification combine to lead to gasoline consumption falling by almost 80%,and diesel falling by almost two-thirds out to 2050.TJet fuel falls by over 80%in CN,supplanted by biojet fuel,and hydrogen applications for aviation.Sources:EGEDA,APERC
168、analysis.Note:Excludes international transport demand.Figure 1-11.Transport energy demand in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-12.Transport energy demand in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Excludes international transport demand.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600200020040
169、2050OtherHydrogenRenewablesElectricityJet fuelGasLPGGasolineDieselProjection 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 6002000200402050OtherHydrogenRenewablesElectricityJet fuelGasLPGGasolineDieselProjectionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|231.AustraliaElectricity gener
170、ation TElectricity generation is projected to increase by almost a third in REF and by almost three-quarters in CN,owing to widespread electrification reaching almost all areas of the economy.TCoal(including lignite)has historically been the most important source of electricity gener-ation for Austr
171、alia.Its relative prominence diminishes steadily throughout REF,with only a small amount of coal generation remaining in the 2040s.TBoth coal and lignite still provide important baseload generation in the first two decades of CN,though their use tails off faster,reaching zero generation with the clo
172、sure of the last remaining coal-fired power plants in the 2040s.TAustralian residential rooftop solar has posted world-leading growth over the last decade and will continue to grow strongly in both scenarios,even without the policy support it received in the 2000s and 2010s.TUtility scale solar surp
173、asses rooftop generation in the 2030s in REF.In CN,the inclusion of the Sun Cable project,which will export electricity to Singapore,drives utility solar past rooftop solar in 2028.TDomestic natural gas supply is likely to remain difficult to secure at a sufficiently low price,meaning that natural g
174、as-fired power plants do not increase their current levels of generation in either scenario.However,natural gas remains an important fuel to meet the challenge of variable renewable generation.CCS technology is incorporated in CN for this role to be maintained while meeting emissions reductions goal
175、s.TAustralias electricity markets remain disparate,with most generation occurring in the North Electricity Market(NEM),which covers the south-east and east coast of the conti-nent.There are smaller electricity grids that service the western and northern parts of the continent.The Sun Cable project i
176、s assumed to be an isolated infrastructure project that will not be able to serve any part of the domestic market.TRenewable sources,storage and gas with CCS account for 95%of the generation in CN in 2050,showcasing the extent to which the power sector can decarbonise in Australia.Sources:EGEDA,APER
177、C analysis.Figure 1-13.Electricity generation in REF,2000-2050(TWh)Figure 1-14.Electricity generation in CN,2000-2050(TWh)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5002000200402050OtherStorageGeothermalBioSolarWindHydroGasOilLigniteProjectionCoal 0 50 100 150 200 2
178、50 300 350 400 450 5002000200402050OtherStorageGeothermalBioSolarWindHydroGas CCSGasOilLigniteCoalProjection 24|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaGeneration capacity TThe installed capacity of Australias power sector undergoes transformational change in bot
179、h scenarios.The growth of solar,wind,and storage continues at an incredible pace,with total capacity increasing by two-and-a-half times in REF and by almost three-and-a-half times in CN.TBoth solar and wind capacity increase by a factor of more than 11 in CN,while storage capacity increases more tha
180、n 50-fold.TThe Australian Energy Market Operator(AEMO)has identified four significant offshore wind zones off the coast of NSW,Victoria,and Tasmania,with all being close to ports that could serve as major hydrogen export hubs.Renewable capacity for hydrogen production(via electrolysis)is additional
181、to the capacity shown here and discussed in the hydrogen slide later in the chapter.TBoth scenarios consider a relatively conservative trajectory for the development of AEMO-identified wind zones.Actual wind capacity to 2030 is already shaping up to be closer to CN results than REF due to the rapid
182、pace of approval of Australian wind projects.TThe Sun Cable project increases Australias solar capacity by 20 GW in 2028 in CN,with this capacity accounting for over one-quarter of Australias solar capacity in 2030,and almost one-fifth by 2050.The large contribution of the Sun Cable project means th
183、at the solar capacity delivering power for domestic consumption is lower than what is indicated on the chart.This is because the Sun Cable project only delivers power to Singapore.TThe challenge of variable renewable energy is partly met by the 2025 expansion of the Snowy Hydro scheme,legacy coal-fi
184、red power plants in REF,and a very large build out of battery storage capacity at both the utility and household level,particularly in CN.Natural gas capacity,including with CCS technology in CN,also remains to ensure generation at times of highest need.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-15.Gener
185、ation capacity in REF,2018-2050(GW)Figure 1-16.Generation capacity in CN,2018-2050(GW)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 50 100 150 200 250200402050OtherStorageBioSolarWindHydroGasOilCoal 0 50 100 150 200 250200402050OtherStorageBioSolarWindHydroGas CCSGasOilCoalAPEC Energy Demand
186、and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|251.AustraliaFuel consumption by the power sector TDespite announcements of early closures of the Eraring,Bayswater,and Loy Yang plants,coal(including lignite)remains the most prominent fuel consumed by the Australian power sector through to the 2040s in REF,and
187、the 2030s,in CN.TNatural gas is truly a transition fuel for the Australian power sector in both scenarios.Strong growth in renewables and retirements of aging coal plants result in gas maintaining a similar level of consumption through the entire projection period for both scenarios.In CN,natural ga
188、s consumption is only marginally lower,though decarbonisation is achieved with the building and deployment of natural gas generation with CCS technology.TThe large increase in solar radiation consumption in CN occurs in 2028,when the Sun Cable is assumed to begin operating.THydrogen production is no
189、t modelled as part of the power sector.Electrolysis from renewable sources will contribute to even more renewable electricity generation,but it is assumed to be from standalone systems,separate from the main grids.TOnly four coal-fired power plants incorporate supercritical technology in Australia.T
190、hese plants were completed in the 2000s in Queensland and consume almost 10%less coal per MWh than the many subcritical coal-fired power plants that were constructed in the 1960s through to the 1990s.There are currently no ultra-supercritical or advanced ultra-supercrit-ical coal-fired power plants
191、in Australia.The much higher costs of these plants negatively impacts their economic viability.TMost gas-fired power plants in Australia are open cycle gas turbines.These units will be important in providing peaking and ancillary services,as coal phase-outs and renewable deployments accelerate in bo
192、th scenarios.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Non-fossil fuels are estimated using conversion factors from primary electricity.Figure 1-17.Fuel consumption by the power sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-18.Fuel consumption by the power sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:N
193、on-fossil fuels are estimated using conversion factors from primary electricity.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 4002000200402050CoalLigniteOilGasHydroSolarWindBiomassGeothermalOther renewablesProjection 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400CoalLigniteOilGasHydroSolarWindBiomassGeothermalOth
194、er renewablesOtherProjection2000200402050 26|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaEnergy supply in the Reference scenario TAustralia is one of the largest energy exporters in the world,and currently produces more than three times the level of energy that it co
195、nsumes.TOn an energy content basis,coal accounted for 70%of Australias energy production in 2018.Thermal coal(and lignite),used primarily in coal-fired power plants,accounted for just over half this production,while metal-lurgical coal,used as a key input for steel production,accounts for the remain
196、der.TAlmost 90%of Australias current coal production is exported,with near equal quantities of thermal coal and metallurgical coal on an energy content basis.Given that metallurgical coal trades at a price premium,it currently provides more of an economic contribution to Australias GDP.TWith diminis
197、hing prospects for thermal coal in REF,metallurgical coal will become relatively more important for Australia,accounting for 60%of Australias total coal exports in 2050.Most of the decline in coal production and exports is due to declines in demand for thermal coal use in export markets.TNatural gas
198、 production has increased markedly in the 2010s due to the development of conventional and unconventional gas resources in the east,north,and west of the continent.Development of unconventional resources in the Surat and Bowen basins are noteworthy,with these basins supplying LNG export terminals in
199、 Gladstone,Queensland.When combined with additional export destined production in Western Australia and the Northern Territory,natural gas production has increased from below 2 000 PJ in 2010 to almost 5 000 PJ before the pandemic.TNatural gas production and exports are expected to main-tain current
200、 levels for the rest of the projection period.Current levels of production are reliant on exploration,appraisal,and commercialisation of additional basins out to 2050.TImports of refined products will displace imports of crude oil following the closure of two of the four remaining oil refineries in
201、Australia in 2021.The remaining two refineries are expected to continue operating to apportion energy security risks between crude oil and refined products.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Exports appear as negative.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-19.Total energy
202、supply in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-21.Net energy trade in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-20.Energy production in REF,2000-2050(PJ)0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 00020002003020402050Other fuelsRenewablesGasOilCoal-16 000-14 000-12 000-10 000-8 000-6 000-4 000-2 000 0 2 000 4 000200020102018
203、2020203020402050RenewablesGasRefined productsCrude oil&NGLCoalTrade balance 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 0002000200402050Other fuelsRenewablesGasOilCoalProjectionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|271.Australia TRenewables almost tri
204、ple in Australias energy supply over the projection period in REF.This growth is exceeded significantly in CN,with renewables growing almost five-fold and accounting for over half of Australias energy supply in 2050.Most of this growth is via solar and wind electricity generation.TThe trend of decli
205、ning thermal coal production and exports in REF is even more pronounced in CN,with falls of almost 90%.Although metallurgical coal demand is robust in REF,the rise of alternative steel production techniques in CN begin to see a decline in Australias metallurgical coal production in response to dimin
206、ishing global demand.However,Australias metallurgical coal production in 2050 is still more than half of the peak production output before the pandemic.TElectricity and hydrogen are energy carriers and do not show in primary energy supply unless there is some form of trade component.Australia is ass
207、umed to become a large exporter of both electricity and hydrogen in CN.Electricity exports are via the Sun Cable project,assumed to begin operating in the late 2020s.Hydrogen exports begin to ramp up from the late 2020s as well,produced by natural gas with CCS technology and electrolysis.These expor
208、ts are expected to reach over 200 PJ in 2050.TNatural gas production and LNG exports remain more robust than coal in CN,though there is a reduction,with production and exports equal to three-quarters of REF values in 2050.TRefined products imports decline more rapidly in CN due to declining domestic
209、 demand,most notably from the transport sector.TAlthough electricity and hydrogen exports begin in CN,their impact is relatively small and unable to offset the much larger decline of coal and gas exports.Australias CN trade balance is only 60%of the balance in REF in 2050.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysi
210、s.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Exports appear as negative.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-22.Total energy supply in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-24.Net energy trade in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-23.Energy production in CN,2000-2050(PJ)-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 0002000201020182020
211、203020402050Other fuelsHydrogenElectricityRenewablesGasOilCoal-16 000-14 000-12 000-10 000-8 000-6 000-4 000-2 000 0 2 000 4 00020002003020402050HydrogenElectricityRenewablesGasRefined productsCrude oil&NGLCoalTrade balance 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 0
212、002000200402050Other fuelsRenewablesGasOilCoalProjectionEnergy supply in the Carbon Neutrality scenario 28|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaCoal in the Reference scenario TThe power sector consumes an overwhelming majority of coal in Australia.Peak consump
213、-tion by the power sector was over 2 000 PJ in 2009,with this having fallen to 1 500 PJ just before the pandemic.The decade-long decline is set to continue in REF as the remaining coal-fired power plants in NSW,Victoria,Queensland,and Western Australia reach the end of their operational lifetimes.TT
214、here is assumed to be no new coal-fired power plants built in either scenario,due to the rapidly increasing capacity of alternative generation technologies such as solar and wind.Increased pumped hydro capacity in the mid-2020s will also facilitate the coal power phase out.TCoal-fired power plant ut
215、ilisation rates have been falling with the rise of variable renewable generation.This fall in utilisation is contributing to deteriorating economics for coal-fired power,which is likely to accelerate the inevitable phase-out.TMultiple Australian industrial subsectors continue to rely on thermal coal
216、 for processes that require consistent heating properties.The demand by these subsectors remains rela-tively small,though is more robust than demand from the power sector given that there are fewer viable substitutes.TProduction of coal is assumed to have peaked prior to the COVID pandemic,and grad-
217、ually tapers to 2050,falling by one-third.Almost 95%of coal production is exported in 2050,reflecting the rapid decline in coal consumption by domestic applications.TThe markets for Australian coal exports will almost exclusively be in Asia,with metallur-gical coal accounting for 60%of all coal expo
218、rts in 2050,which is up from less than 50%currently.Thermal coal production declines will be in response to reducing global demand for thermal coal by the global power sector.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-25.Coal consumption by sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-26.Coal production,imports,a
219、nd exports in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 5002000200402050HydrogenPowerOwn use and lossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportBuildingsIndustryProjection-15 000-10 000-5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 00020002003020402050Stock changeExportsImportsP
220、roductionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|291.AustraliaCoal in the Carbon Neutrality scenario TPower sector consumption of coal in CN follows a similar trajectory to REF in the 2020s.However,there is an accelerated timeline of coal-fired power plant closures from the 2030s onw
221、ard due to assumed policy intervention combined with a more rapid rise in renewables and storage capacity additions.The last coal-fired power plant is expected to cease operating in the late 2040s.TIndustrial consumption of coal is less robust in CN.Electrification,other fuel switching,and changes i
222、n industry subsector composition means that industrial consumption falls by two-thirds to 2050.TThe decline in global markets for thermal coal is assumed to be even more pronounced in CN,with Australias thermal coal production and exports falling by almost 90%to 2050.TGlobal metallurgical coal deman
223、d begins to be displaced by alternative virgin steel production technologies incorporating hydrogen.Metal scrap recycling rates also increase to allow electric arc furnaces to displace even more metallurgical coal.Even so,metallur-gical coal demand remains,with Australia continuing to supply global
224、markets.Australias exports of metallurgical coal in 2050 are projected to be slightly more than half of what they were at their peak.TCCS technologies are assumed to contribute to bolstering global demand for metallur-gical coal-based steel production in the face of aggressive emissions abatement.Th
225、e rise of this technology will provide support for Australian production of metallurgical coal.TOver 98%of Australias coal production in CN is exported in 2050.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-27.Coal consumption by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-28.Coal production,imports,and exports in CN
226、,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 5002000200402050HydrogenPowerOwn use and lossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportBuildingsIndustryProjection-15 000-10 000-5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 00020002003020402050Stock changeExportsImportsProduction 30|APEC
227、 Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaNatural gas in the Reference scenario TNatural gas is consumed by almost all energy sectors in the Australian economy,with total consumption increasing by 80%since the turn of the century.Much of this growth is due to significant gas-fire
228、d power capacity additions,and the large volumes of own use required to liquefy natural gas for Australias LNG export industry.TUnconventional production from the Surat and Bowen basins that underpinned the invest-ment in east coast LNG export capacity has been lower than was originally forecast.In
229、response,LNG exporters have been compelled to source substantial volumes of gas from other domestic producers.TDeclining southern production and gas demand by Australias LNG exporters has placed upward pressure on wholesale gas prices in recent years,making it more difficult for domestic consumers t
230、o secure long-term supply.Uncertainty of supply at a competitive price places a ceiling on growth of domestic gas consumption out to 2050.TThe Australian Domestics Gas Security Mechanism(ADGSM)was instituted to ease supply issues by empowering the federal resources minister to limit LNG exports in t
231、he face of a domestic supply shortfall.The ADGSM has yet to be exercised and medium-to long-term supply uncertainty remains.TTo ease supply tensions,there are plans for multiple east coast LNG import terminals.Both scenarios assume that some of these projects begin to alleviate supply pressure by th
232、e late 2020s.However,these projects are unlikely to deliver low prices.TWhile unconventional natural gas production out of Queensland has been lower than forecast,Australian production has still managed to increase by a factor of 2.5 since 2010.Production and exports are assumed to maintain current
233、levels for most of the projection period.This will be reliant on exploration,appraisal,and commercialisation of new basins.Multiple LNG export facilities will also require refurbishment during the mid-2030s.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-29.Natural gas consumption by sector in REF,2000-2050(P
234、J)Figure 1-30.Natural gas production,imports,and exports in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 8002000200402050HydrogenPowerOwn use and lossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportAgricultureBuildingsIndustryProjection-5 000-4 000-3 000-2 0
235、00-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 00020002003020402050Stock changeBunkersExportsImportsProductionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|311.AustraliaNatural gas in the Carbon Neutrality scenario TNatural gas consumption is typically lower in CN for almost all ene
236、rgy sectors.Power sector consumption is more volatile due to an increased role in meeting the challenge of greater variable renewable generation.That role is heightened due to a faster phase out of coal-fired generation.TReduced natural gas consumption in many of the other consuming sectors is due t
237、o improved energy efficiency and fuel switching,particularly to electricity.Such switching has already started to occur with the higher domestic prices filtering through to most parts of the economy since the mid-2010s.TThe hydrogen sector begins to become a large natural gas consumer from the late
238、2020s.Steam methane reforming with CCS hydrogen production grows rapidly.However,by the mid-2040s,electrolysis accounts for almost all additional hydrogen production,and so natural gas consumption for hydrogen does not continue to grow.TAustralias natural gas production in CN declines slowly from cu
239、rrent levels in response to lower global demand for natural gas.Natural gas production in 2050 is 30%lower than the current peak,with a similar forecast decline for exports.TNatural gas pipeline imports from the East Timor Joint Petroleum Development Area have been liquefied in Darwin before being e
240、xported to Asia since 2005.These imports are expected to cease in 2022,following exhaustion of the Bayu Undan offshore gas field.There is likely to be development of additional gas resources in the Northern Territory to make-up for this forecast shortfall.TIn both scenarios,the west and east natural
241、 gas markets remain separated with only a small pipeline linking the Northern Territory to the east coast.Easing the current supply issues is less of a priority in CN due to lower consumption.However,east coast import terminals are still assumed to play a role,becoming operational in the 2020s.Sourc
242、es:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-31.Natural gas consumption by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-32.Natural gas production,imports,and exports in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 8002000200402050HydrogenPowerOwn use and lossesNon-sp
243、ecifiedNon-energyTransportAgricultureBuildingsIndustryProjection-5 000-4 000-3 000-2 000-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 00020002003020402050Stock changeBunkersExportsImportsProduction 32|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaCrude oil and NGLs in the R
244、eference scenario TAustralian crude oil production is modest in comparison to Australias coal and natural gas production,due to far smaller reserves.Bass Strait production(southern Australia)is mostly refined by Victorian refineries due to proximity and ease of transport via pipeline.The bulk of oth
245、er production,such as from the Northern Carnarvon and Roebuck basins in Western Australia,is closer to Asian markets and of a quality that is not suitable for Australian refineries.TIn 2021,two of the four remaining Australian refineries,Altona in Victoria and Kwinana in Western Australia,announced
246、that they would be ceasing operations.This has roughly halved demand for crude oil for Australian refineries,accelerating the decline of the previous two decades.TThe Australian government has announced support measures to ensure that the Lytton refinery in Queensland and Geelong refinery in Victori
247、a continue to operate until at least 2027.TEnergy security is a consideration for the two remaining Australian refineries to continue operating.However,both refineries rely on a large quantity of imported crude oil to meet their required processing capabilities.This means that Australia is still vul
248、nerable from an energy security standpoint with challenges of supply of crude oil supplanted by chal-lenges of supply of petroleum products.TIn both scenarios,the two remaining refineries are assumed to continue operating until 2050.Production and exports are also assumed to maintain levels in place
249、 following the refinery closure announcements of 2021.Imports are assumed to maintain levels that are sufficient to supply the two remaining refineries.TPart of the fall in crude oil production from established fields has been offset by an increase in NGL production that is tied to the exploitation
250、of liquids-rich offshore reserves.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-33.Crude oil and NGLs consumption by sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-34.Crude oil and NGLs production,imports,and exports in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800200020
251、0402050RefiningProjection-1 000-500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 00020002003020402050Stock changeExportsImportsProductionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|331.AustraliaCrude oil and NGLs in the Carbon Neutrality scenario TIn CN,demand for crude oil by t
252、he two remaining Australian oil refineries is assumed to be almost the same as in REF.TWhile demand for refined products decreases rapidly in CN,domestic refinery output remains significantly below this demand for the entire projection period.This means that there is an economic case for two operati
253、onal domestic refineries in Australia out to 2050,even in a scenario with rapid decarbonisation of the energy sectors.TImporting higher-cost,premium light-sweet blends,places Australias refineries at an economic disadvantage relative to international competition.However,this additional cost may be j
254、ustifiable in the context of fuel security.TConstant domestic refinery output means that Australias import dependence for transport fuels declines throughout the outlook period;domestic refining satisfies more and more of domestic demand out to 2050.TIn CN,production of crude oil and NGLs in 2050 fa
255、lls to slightly more than half of the production that occurs in REF.Imports remain about the same between the two scenarios,owing to the almost identical refinery consumption.TExports of crude oil in CN are only 40%of what they are in REF due to the rapid move away from refined products that takes p
256、lace in order to meet emission abatement goals.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-35.Crude oil and NGLs consumption by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-36.Crude oil and NGLs production,imports,and exports in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
257、1 8002000200402050RefiningProjection-1 000-500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 00020002003020402050Stock changeExportsImportsProduction 34|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaRefined products in the Reference scenario TOutside the transport sector,
258、minerals mining(a subsector of industry)consumes the largest amount of diesel,with this consumption having tracked the commodities boom of the 2000s and early 2010s.Agriculture is also a large user of diesel,and the non-energy sector consumes a significant portion of refined products as a feedstock.
259、TIn REF,growth in population and output/activity is tempered by improvements in energy efficiency and some fuel switching.This translates to similar levels of refined products consumption out to 2050.TDemand for refined products is assumed to have peaked in Australia prior to the COVID pandemic.The
260、most visible impact on refined products consumption is in the transport sector,with consumption falling by 12%in 2020.Bunkers supply,which captures demand from international aviation and maritime applications,also shows a very large decrease.Other consumption sectors were less impacted due to activi
261、ties largely continuing under lockdown conditions.TImports of refined products have grown significantly since 2000 due to steady growth in consumption and a diminishing domestic refining fleet.There were eight Australian refin-eries at the turn of the millennium,though with the most recent closure a
262、nnouncements from Kwinana(Western Australia)and Altona(Victoria)in 2021,only two remain.Imports of refined products as a proportion of supply have increased from 10%in 2000 to over 70%in 2021.TThe two remaining domestic refineries(Geelong and Lytton)are assumed to continue operating for the remainde
263、r of the projection period.However,import dependency will be close to 100%given that exports and bunkers(international aviation and maritime)will offset the domestic refining output.TAustralia has been non-compliant with the IEA 90 days of oil stock requirement since 2012.The federal government sign
264、ed an agreement with the US in 2020 to lease a portion of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a commitment to return Australia to compliance by 2026.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-37.Refined products consumption by sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-38.Refined products production,i
265、mports,and exports in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 5002000200402050PowerOwn use and lossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportAgricultureBuildingsIndustryProjection-500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 00020002003020402050Stock changeBunker
266、sExportsImportsDomestic refiningAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|351.AustraliaRefined products in the Carbon Neutrality scenario TConsumption of refined products falls by two-thirds to 2050 in CN.The transport sector contributes most of the heavy lifting via electrification an
267、d fuel efficiency improvements,with consumption falling by almost three-quarters.For buildings,refined products consumption falls by 90%,albeit from a lower base,with significant switching away from LPG and diesel generators.Agriculture and the industry sector achieve more modest reductions of 40%,w
268、ith electrification of mining activities playing a leading role for industry.TThe initial post-COVID rebound is similar in both scenarios,though improved energy efficiency performance in CN,including accelerated electrification in road transport appli-cations,means that refined products consumption
269、begins to fall dramatically away from the REF trajectory.TThe two remaining oil refineries are expected to continue to operate for the entire projec-tion period as part of a diverse fuel security strategy.With rapidly falling consumption patterns in CN,the Australian refineries meet a much larger pr
270、oportion of demand;refinery output is equal to almost two-thirds of domestic consumption in 2050.A similar quantity of imports are required due to continued small export quantities and to supply bunkers for international aviation and marine demand.TCompliance with meeting the IEAs requirement to hol
271、d 90 days of daily net imports will remain a similar challenge for Australia in CN in the short-term.However,sustained lower consumption levels will mean that it will be easier for Australia to comply in the medium-to long-term,without needing to resort to leasing offshore storages or implementing t
272、icketing arrangements.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-39.Refined products consumption by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-40.Refined products production,imports,and exports in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 5002000200402050PowerOwn use and l
273、ossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportAgricultureBuildingsIndustryProjection-500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 00020002003020402050Stock changeBunkersExportsImportsDomestic refining 36|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaHydrogen in the Reference scenario TH
274、ydrogen is currently produced by refineries for use as a feedstock in hydrocracking and hydroprocessing of oil and refinery products in both the refining and upgrading process.However,this Outlook only models the production and consumption of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the end-use sectors.THyd
275、rogen is an emerging energy carrier with an uncertain future in the global and Australian energy system.Like most emerging energy carriers,its integration depends on the successful development of multiple hydrogen applications on the demand side in concert with an economic development of hydrogen su
276、pply.Parallel development of export markets could also help achieve scale and reduce costs on the supply side.TIn REF,there is a small take-up of hydrogen by heavy trucking.There is also a very small amount of use cases that begin to incorporate hydrogen as an energy source and fuel in the chemicals
277、 industry subsector.This small amount of demand is met by a domestic hydrogen industry,that is almost exclusively produced by electrolysis.TThe purpose of the inclusion of hydrogen in REF is to reflect the reality that hydrogen use cases are likely to eventuate,but the limited developments fail to g
278、ain meaningful trac-tion.In REF,there is not a large global market for hydrogen that would support large-scale hydrogen export activities out of Australia.Note:Hydrogen as an industrial feedstock is not considered.Figure 1-41.Hydrogen consumption by sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-42.Hydrogen pr
279、oduction,imports,and exports in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Notes:Hydrogen as an industrial feedstock is not considered.Exports are produced from steam methane reformation with CCS(blue)or electrolyser processes(green).0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90200422050TransportIndustry 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3
280、50 400200402050ElectrolysisCoal gasification CCSAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|371.AustraliaHydrogen in the Carbon Neutrality scenario TIn contrast to REF,the market for hydrogen advances rapidly in CN,with multiple global industry and transport use cases fueling
281、robust global trade.Japan also incorporates hydrogen consumption in buildings applications.TFor Australia,hydrogen transport demand grows to almost 80PJ,with applications in heavy trucking,aviation,and maritime activities.Industrial hydrogen applications are less available for Australia due to the s
282、ignificant offshoring of heavy industry activities through the latter half of the twentieth century and through the 2000s.Nevertheless,hydrogen begins to be incorporated in Australias chemicals and steel industry subsectors from the late 2020s.TWhile domestic consumption use cases remain modest,Aust
283、ralian hydrogen production grows to over 300 PJ by 2050,supporting an export market of 200 PJ.The production also supports additional demand from international aviation and shipping(captured by bunkers)of 40 PJ.THydrogen production from steam methane reforming with CCS initially grows at a faster ra
284、te than electrolysis from the mid-2020s.But growth in electrolysis production acceler-ates,so that it accounts for over 70%of Australias hydrogen production in 2050.TThe Australian Government has recently announced over AUD 1.5 billion of support for a clean hydrogen industry.Investments are for cle
285、an hydrogen industrial hubs,electrolyser projects,and multiple knowledge sharing and collaboration initiatives with other econo-mies.This level of support will be pivotal in facilitating an outcome such as the one that occurs in CN.Note:Hydrogen as an industrial feedstock is not considered.Figure 1-
286、43.Hydrogen consumption by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-44.Hydrogen production,imports,and exports in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Notes:Hydrogen as an industrial feedstock is not considered.Exports are produced from steam methane reformation with CCS(blue)or electrolyser processes(green).0 10 20 30 40 50
287、60 70 80 90200422050TransportIndustry-300-200-100 0 100 200 300 400200402050BunkersExportsElectrolysisCoal gasification CCSSteam methane reforming CCS 38|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaBioenergy in the Reference scenario TConsumption of solid
288、and liquid renewables maintains a similar level in Australia through the projection period,though the sectoral composition of that consumption shifts signifi-cantly.Biomass used by the power sector falls close to zero by 2050.Biomass used in the buildings sector falls as well,but only by half,due to
289、 certain remote regions being unable to switch to other fuel sources.The buildings biomass switching that does occur is mostly to electricity.TIn contrast to declining use of biomass in the power sector and buildings,the industrial sector uses an increasing amount of biomass,displacing a small amoun
290、t of fossil fuels in certain subsectors such as food and beverages and non-metallic minerals production.Industry accounts for over 80%of the consumption of these renewables by 2050.TSupply of these solid and liquid renewables used in the different energy consuming sectors is exclusively from domesti
291、c production sources.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Solid and liquid renewables includes biomass,biogas,and biofuels.Figure 1-45.Bioenergy consumption by sector in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-46.Bioenergy production,imports,and exports in REF,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 50 100 150 2
292、00 2502000200402050PowerOwn use and lossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportAgricultureBuildingsIndustryProjection 0 50 100 150 200 25020002003020402050Stock changeBunkersExportsImportsProductionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|391.AustraliaBioenergy in the
293、 Carbon Neutrality scenario TTotal consumption of solid and liquid renewables is slightly lower in CN.Biomass consumption by the power sector similarly falls close to zero.There is also a large decline in buildings sector consumption,which falls by 60%.TUnlike in REF,biomass consumption in the indus
294、try sector declines by a small amount out to 2050.This is due to the increased role for electricity and hydrogen in CN that out-compete many of the applications for biomass.TThe big change in consumption patterns in this scenario is from the rise of biojet and biogasoline fuels used by the aviation
295、sector.Consumption of these fuels increases from zero in the mid-2020s to almost 40 PJ in 2050.By 2050,the transport sector accounts for a quarter of the total consumption.TTo complement the rise in domestic aviation demand for biofuels,over 55 PJ of biojet fuel is consumed by international aviation
296、 demand,as captured by bunkers.TImports meet the entirety of demand for these aviation biofuels given that the two remaining Australian refineries do not have capacity to produce these fuels.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Solid and liquid renewables includes biomass,biogas,and biofuels.Figure 1-4
297、7.Bioenergy consumption by sector in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Figure 1-48.Bioenergy production,imports,and exports in CN,2000-2050(PJ)Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 50 100 150 200 2502000200402050PowerOwn use and lossesNon-specifiedNon-energyTransportAgricultureBuildingsIndustryProjection-100-50 0
298、 50 100 150 200 25020002003020402050Stock changeBunkersExportsImportsProduction 40|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaEnergy intensity and modern renewables share TAustralias final energy intensity has improved by 30%over the previous two decades,supported b
299、y strong GDP growth,a continued move to a more service-intensive economy,and improvement in physical energy efficiency in all sectors.TFinal energy intensity is expected to improve by over 60%for the period of 2005 to 2050 in REF,and by over 70%in CN.TAustralias share of modern renewables in its ene
300、rgy mix has recently increased to more than 10%following a rapid rise in household rooftop solar,and increasing utility scale renewable generation,over the last decade.TModern renewables growth is expected to continue recent historical trends and reach almost a quarter of Australias energy mix by 20
301、50 in REF.This growth is supported by the continued build-out of wind and solar capacity,which is rapidly displacing fossil fuel generation.TIn CN,modern renewables trace a meteoric rise,accounting for over 50%of Australias energy mix in 2050.This rapid rise is mostly facilitated by rapid electrific
302、ation of the trans-port sector,with electrification in all other sectors playing a role as well.TTo emphasise the importance of electrification,renewable generation accounts for two-thirds of all generation in REF,and over 80%of the generation in CN.TThe rise of liquid biofuels and hydrogen also pla
303、y a role in displacing fossil fuels in multiple sectors,which improves the share of modern renewables in the energy mix.Note:Additional calculations for final energy intensity and modern renewables share are available in the supporting dataset.Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Excludes non-energy.Fi
304、gure 1-49.Final energy intensity in REF and CN(2005=100)Figure 1-50.Modern renewables share in REF and CN,2000-2050Sources:EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Modern renewables includes direct consumption of renewables in end-use demand sectors(excluding non-energy and biomass in some sectors)and the share of
305、 electricity produced by renewable sources.0 20 40 60 80 100 2020203020402050ReferenceCarbon NeutralityProjection0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2000200402050ReferenceCarbon NeutralityProjectionAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|411.AustraliaGross CO2 emissions TAustra
306、lias CO2 emissions have maintained a high plateau for most of the last decade.A slight decline in the mid-2010s coincided with a price on carbon from 2012 to 2014.TAustralias power sector has been decarbonising over the most recent decade,with CO2 emissions declining 13%in the face of 6%higher gener
307、ation.All other sectors have posted an increase in CO2 emissions of between 10%to 20%for the same decade.TIn REF,the continued phase-out of domestic coal-fired power plants and rise of renewable generation will see power sector CO2 emissions decline by two-thirds.This large reduction in CO2 emission
308、s is eclipsed in CN,with a decline of over 90%.TTransport sector CO2 emissions decline by just under 10%in REF and by almost three quarters in CN,due to wide-scale electrification,greater fuel efficiency,behavioural change(less transport activity),and the rise of biofuels and hydrogen.TThere is a si
309、gnificant amount of own use CO2 emissions attached to LNG.This is projected to decline by over 90%in CN due to CCS,efficiency improvements,and lower levels of liquefaction.The buildings sector is projected to see emissions reductions of almost two-thirds to 2050 due to electrification and energy eff
310、iciency.Industry sector CO2 emissions decline by almost half,assisted by material and energy efficiency,CCS,and electrification.TAustralias current NDC is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26%to 28%from the 2005 level by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.CO2 emissions decline by 25%b
311、etween 2005 and 2030 in CN.While these reductions are close to Australias 2030 target,the two emissions frameworks are not directly comparable.TAustralias recently released whole-of-economy plan to achieve net-zero emissions relies on negative emissions from non-energy sectors.This is consistent wit
312、h the CN,which shows energy sector CO2 emissions in 2050 of almost 80 million tonnes.Other sectors are assumed to deliver negative emissions to balance out this remainder.Sources:UNFCCC,EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Excludes non-energy,land-use,and methane emissions.Figure 1-51.Gross CO2 emissions in RE
313、F,2000-2050(million tonnes)Figure 1-52.Change in gross CO2 emissions,2000-2050(million tonnes)Sources:UNFCCC,EGEDA,APERC analysis.Note:Excludes non-energy,land-use,and methane emissions.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 4502000200402050Non-specifiedAgricultureBuildingsTransportIndustryOwn
314、usePowerProjection 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 4502000200402050Non-specifiedAgricultureBuildingsTransportIndustryOwn usePowerReferenceCarbon NeutralityProjection 42|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.21.AustraliaComponents of CO2 emissions TAustralia emitted 383 mi
315、llion tonnes of CO2 in 2018,which amounted to less than 2%of total APEC emissions.While these CO2 emissions were relatively small,Australia has high emissions per capita,placing at number three out of the 21 APEC economies.TGiven the assumptions about Australias population and GDP growth,emissions w
316、ould more than double to over 850 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050,holding all else equal.TIn REF,all else does not remain equal,and improvements in energy intensity and emis-sions intensity instead reduce projected emissions to 250 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050.Energy intensity accounts for 78%of this
317、 reduction while CO2 emissions intensity accounts for the remaining 22%.TIn CN,energy intensity emissions reductions are 26%greater than in REF and emissions intensity reductions in CN are 33%greater.These additional improvements mean that 2050 energy sector CO2 emissions are only one-fifth of what
318、they were in 2018.TPositive energy sector CO2 emissions in CN will need to be countered by negative emis-sions in other sectors for Australia to achieve net-zero ambitions.The challenge will be even greater when including process emissions and all other greenhouse gases in the calculation.However,th
319、ese challenges are not insurmountable.The CN is only one of many plausible paths for Australia to prosper while also meeting the goal of reducing emissions in line with its international commitments.Note:The above charts are a representation of the Kaya identity which is CO2 emissions=Population*GDP
320、Population *Energy supplyGDP*CO2 emissionsEnergy supply.Sources:UNFCCC,EGEDA,APERC analysis.Figure 1-53.CO2 emissions components in REF,2018 and 2050(million tonnes)Figure 1-54.CO2 emissions components in CN,2018 and 2050(million tonnes)Sources:UNFCCC,EGEDA,APERC analysis.0 100 200 300 400 500 600 7
321、00 800 900 1 000Emissions 2018PopulationGDP per capitaEnergy intensityEmissions intensityEmissions 2050 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000Emissions 2018PopulationGDP per capitaEnergy intensityEmissions intensityEmissions 2050APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.2|431.Austra
322、liaAustralian Bureau of Statistics.https:/www.abs.gov.au/Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.https:/www.accc.gov.au/Australian Energy Market Commission.https:/www.aemc.gov.au/Australian Energy Market Operator.https:/.au/Australian Energy Regulator.https:/www.aer.gov.au/Australias National
323、 Energy Analytics Research Program.https:/near.csiro.au/Australias Nationally Determined Contribution.https:/www.industry.gov.au/news/affirming-australias-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-targetAustralian Renewable Energy Agency.https:/arena.gov.au/Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisat
324、ion.https:/www.csiro.au/Clean Energy Finance Corporation.https:/.au/Clean Energy Regulator.http:/www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Department of Industry,Science,Energy and Resources.https:/www.industry.gov.au/Energy.gov.au.https:/www.energy.gov.au/OSeMOSYS.http:/www.osemosys.org/ReserveCable.Bank of
325、Australia.https:/www.rba.gov.au/Sun.https:/suncable.sg/The Treasury.https:/treasury.gov.au/Additional information2.Brunei Darussalam 46|APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition,Vol.22.Brunei DarussalamDemand TNatural gas is set to account for the largest share of energy demand in the Refere
326、nce(REF)and Carbon Neutrality(CN)scenarios(2018-2050).Growth in gas demand is largely driven by the non-energy sector,where significant volume of gas is used as a feedstock for domestic production of methanol in Brunei Methanol Company(BMC)and of fertilisers in Brunei Fertilizer Industries(BFI).TEle
327、ctricity demand in the industry sector is expected to be dominant in both scenarios,driven by developments in the chemicals subsector,particularly Hengyi Industries and BFI.In CN,fuel switching within the sector leads to a small amount of hydrogen consumption.TElectric vehicles are expected to penet
328、rate the domestic market in both scenarios in Bruneis transport sector.REF sees a contribution of 11%of the total demand share in the transport sector in 2050,while CN sees a significant 41%share of EVs in 2050.A small number of fuel-cell vehicles(FCVs)is expected to be on the market as well in REF
329、and CN.Supply TOil and gas continue to fuel Bruneis energy supply in both REF and CN.TThe production target of 350 000 BOE per day of oil and gas by 2025 is achievable.However,production and trade trends decline due to maturing fields and regional decline in demand for oil and gas in both REF and CN
330、.TCoal is a part of Bruneis energy supply mix in both scenarios through imports,providing electricity for the operation of the Hengyi Industries refinery and petrochemical complexes(first phase and second phase).The substantial refining capacity of these complexes requires imports of crude oil as fe
331、edstock in addition to local crude sources.Power TSolar PV is set to eclipse gas-fired power plants by 2050 in both scenarios,accounting for over 50%of the total share of installed capacity.THowever,natural gas continues to be integral in providing baseload on-grid electricity generation.TCoal is ex
332、pected to be utilised to provide off-grid electricity for Hengyi Industries.CO2 emissions TCO2 emissions increase 50%in REF(2018-2050).TGas remains the largest source of CO2 emissions but declines from 74%to 51%(2018-2050)in REF.TThe introduction of coal increases the overall carbon content in Brune
333、is energy supply in 2050 above 2018 levels,thus increasing the emissions intensity in REF.TCoal becomes the second largest share of CO2 emissions in 2050(31%)in REF.TIn CN,CO2 emissions peak by 2030.By 2050,CO2 emissions are 37%lower than 2018.TThe CO2 emissions reduction between CN and REF(54%)is largely due to the gradual phase-out of coal.TIn the transport sector,electrification of vehicles and