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1、IPSOS VIEWSFUTURE OF MOBILITYAutonomous driving and the impact on our lifeAUTHORSPeter OttoJohn KiserJack ChiuNovember 2022Two-thirds of consumers believe that it will be too expensive for them to personally own an AV.1 Experts assume that the prices for self-driving mode(Level 3-5)will be expensive

2、 and therefore it is likely that the first solutions will only be available on premium and luxury models in high-end segments.For private cars in the lower and midsize segments of volume or budget brands,there might not be high Automation implemented any time soon.But self-driving will not only be f

3、or wealthy consumers,who pay extra for the ownership,any consumer will have the chance to experience self-driving e.g.,when using robot taxis,autonomous public transport,or as ride hailing/car sharing offers.Plus,all consumers can experience semi-autonomous driving when riding or driving a recent ve

4、hicle with active ADAS(Advanced Driver Assistance Systems)with Emergency Braking,Adaptive Cruise Control or Lane Keeping Assistance.THE LIGHT IS GREEN FOR SELF-DRIVING Traffic can be extremely busy,chaotic,and overcrowded.In bad weather,car drivers must navigate their way around other motorists,pede

5、strians,bikers,and scooters.As a result,the AI development for autonomous driving is extremely complex,but driverless Autonomous Driving(Level 4-5)is technically possible today.In the streets of San Francisco,General Motors has started to offer Cruise taxi shuttles without human drivers and Googles

6、Waymo operates its robo taxis in downtown Phoenix,Arizona.In South-East Beijing,the so-called Beijing High-level Automated Driving Demonstration Area(BJHAD),driverless robo taxis both from Pony and Baidu are commercially in action on public roads.Also,in Guangzhou,Pony,WeRide and AutoX are operating

7、 as self-driving traditional taxis.AutoX launched a driverless robo taxi fleet with more than 1,000 AVs in five Chinese mega cities,as well as San Francisco.Since the end of the last century innovation labs have started to work on self-driving technology.As of the early 2000s the Automotive and Tech

8、 industry heavily invested in the development of Autonomous Driving(AD).Getting AI technology to be safe for both passengers and other traffic participants is far more complex and challenging than predicted.It was expected that the shift towards self-driving functions would have come earlier,but tod

9、ay the offer of semi-autonomous vehicles is still limited and there are very few examples of highly Autonomous Vehicles(AV)on the road.However,the transformation from traditional to self-driving cars is expected to come and it wont be a technical gadget.Once fully Autonomous Driving is here,it will

10、have a huge impact on our daily habits and routines.It will change our lives.THE TWO ROADS TOWARDS AUTONOMOUS DRIVING First,there will be individually owned autonomous vehicles(regardless,if purchased,leased,financed,or subscribed)and secondly,there will be shared mobility,so called Mobility as a Se

11、rvice(MaaS)which will happen autonomously without human drivers.Figure 1 Road towards ADSource:IpsosLEVELS OF AUTONOMYLevel 5:Full Automation Vehicle performs all driving functions under all conditions/no driver requiredLevel 4:High Automation Vehicle performs all driving tasks and monitors environm

12、ent under limited conditions/driver may still be required tointerveneLevel 3:Conditional Automation Vehicle monitors the environment and can perform driving tasks/driver is not required to remain constantly alert,but must be readyto take control with noticeLevel 2:Partial Automation (e.g.Tesla Autop

13、ilot)Level 1:Driver Assistance (available in most cars today)Level 0:No AutomationIndividually Owned Vehicles(IOV)L0-2L3L4L5Mobility as a Service(MaaS)Contribution:Volkswagen AG 3 FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWS2IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS D

14、RIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFEIn Europe,several fenced facilities(e.g.,at factory sides)have autonomous vehicles in regular use.There have been several announcements that self-driving robo shuttles on specific routes(e.g.,between airports and city centers)or in specific metropolitan districts cou

15、ld be launched in the coming years,predictions as early as 2025.42%2 of consumers expect fully autonomous vehicles that can handle all local roads and environmental conditions by 2025.Experts are more reserved and believe it might take a bit longer before L4/L5 Autonomous Vehicles(AVs)will be broadl

16、y offered and can be used everywhere both on highways,cities and in rural areas.Fully autonomous driving functions are expected to be available in many areas from 2030 onwards.There are enterprises in some regions which will be the first to move towards autonomous driving.Companies in the USA(especi

17、ally in California)and in China are pushing towards self-driving.Some smaller city states are expected to launch self-driving faster than others.European and Japanese car manufacturers are also investing a lot in autonomous,thus there will be specific self-driving pilot areas,but its likely it will

18、take a while before autonomous transport will be possible on a large scale.India,Brazil,and the rest of the world including all the developing markets will have to wait for fully autonomous driving.Nevertheless,in a couple of decades we very likely could live in a world where self-driving is availab

19、le everywhere around the globe.Long-haul truck driving might soon become a profession of the past.Automated truck driving will lead towards lower logistical costs,which should result in lower consumer prices.THE COMMERCIAL POWER OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING Companies which are transporting goods are intere

20、sted in the use of AD.Long-haul truck driving might soon become a profession of the past.Automated truck driving will lead towards lower logistical costs,which should result in lower consumer prices.In the USA,Germany,and other countries there are already autonomous trucks on the road and implementa

21、tion of self-driving commercial vehicles on highways are predicted for daily use by the middle of this century.In addition,the last-mile delivery will benefit from AD.The AD delivery pod concept for example,allows consumers to pick-up their package in front of their house.Walmart or UBER Eats in col

22、laboration with Nuro are offering AD food delivery where consumers can pick up their order from an AD vehicle at the sidewalk.Of course,the transportation of people will be a main application for AD.Public transport,taxi offer,ride-hailing(like Didi,Uber or Lyft)and location-to-location shuttles at

23、airports,sporting events,concerts,city centers or other occasions will be the first using autonomous driving.When this happens,the job description of bus and taxi driver will significantly change,a transition period will occur where they will be on board for ensuring safety protocols.Large enterpris

24、es with many sales reps or technical support will also use AD vehicles to increase the productivity of their staff while driving.There will be commercial applications beyond transportation where self-driving is imminent,if not already in operation.AD tractors or mowing machines are used in the agric

25、ultural industry for seeding and harvesting.Lawn care machines in parks or at golf courses will be autonomous.For waste collection,AD garbage trucks could be used.Street cleaning can be done fully autonomously,for instance due to COVID there were concepts for self-driving air disinfection vehicles.A

26、nd the more established AD functions get,the more services are expected to include autonomous driving into their offers.Contribution:Zoox,Inc.5 FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWS4IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFEPer

27、sonally owned cars are parked,or stationary,for 95%of the time.But Robo Taxis or other shared mobility vehicles would always be on the move.As soon as one passenger ends their AD ride,a new passenger is picked up and heading to the next destination.This means AVs will need to park much less and wont

28、 block so many parking lots.Parking spaces could be transformed into green areas.Less traffic and greener cities will significantly increase quality of living for urban residents.HOW AD CAN REVOLUTIONIZE OUR TIME MANAGEMENT When traveling in self-driving cars there is no need to watch the traffic an

29、ymore,the passenger can do whatever they want they could increase their productivity,by mobile working in the vehicle,participating in video conferences or doing online shopping.Extra time while traveling autonomously could be used for relaxation and wellbeing or sleeping.Consumers can choose betwee

30、n being entertained(by streaming services)or they can use the extra time for communication with others via video conference or playing with children during the trip.A significant AD advantage would be for commuters,who spend hours in the car each day with limited productivity.Consider this thought p

31、iece:A commuter today brings his/her children to school(30 min)and travels to the office(45 min),including parking the car nearby(10 min).After work he/she heads to the grocery store to buy food(30 min)and then drives home(35min).They spend 2.5 hours in the car on a normal working day.All those in-c

32、ar hours could be spent carrying out other tasks.Children,without driving licenses,could take an AD shuttle to school,and the time spent commuting to the office could become mobile working,all while the food is delivered autonomously to your doorstep.Self-Driving vehicles will not only make our time

33、 traveling more comfortable and/or productive,it also will impact time-management and change all our in-home habits.Autonomous vehicles could soon lead to a large disruption to our daily routines.THE CONSUMER BENEFITS OF AD DEMOCRATIZE MOBILITY The worlds population is ageing,and the number of perso

34、ns aged 80 years or over is projected to triple by 2050.3 A major worry for the elderly is loss of mobility.4 Autonomous Driving therefore will be a significant benefit to elderly people keeping or winning back their level of mobility and freedom.Foremost,disabled people with a visual impairment or

35、lacking eyesight who rely on the support of others for transportation,will become more independent.People without driving licenses or who have less experience will get a new freedom to travel where and when they want.SAFER MOBILITY In addition to the gained freedom,traveling will get safer especiall

36、y for elderly people with physical challenges,less experienced drivers,and therefore for everybody else.According to the World Health Organization,there are about 1.3 million deaths due to traffic accidents in the world every year,and more than two people die in traffic accidents every minute on ave

37、rage.Although the growth rate of accidents is relatively slow compared with the rapid increase of mobility,the number of occurrences cannot be ignored,and reduction of accidents will benefit everybody.Today the media is reporting mainly about accidents that are happening with the involvement of driv

38、erless cars.There is nearly no coverage about all the crashes which could have been avoided by using Advanced Driver Assistance Systems(ADAS)or other semi-automated features.To get a significant boost in trial and acceptance of AD,manufacturers need to address consumer worries around safety.Most con

39、sumers arent comfortable giving up the control of driving without knowing the vehicle is safe,but if they can be shown and convinced of its safety they may convert to AD on more journeys.The driver or consumer wants to activate AD when they feel safe based on the conditions and the type of drive it

40、is.Another way of convincing consumers of AD safety will be when it becomes more ubiquitous in commercial applications.Publicly available self-driving transportation experiences will be advantageous to get general consumers exposed and comfortable with the technology.LESS TRAFFIC JAMS,MORE HOSPITABL

41、E CITIES AVs are fully connected and therefore continuously communicate with the environment.Vehicles communicate with vehicles(V2V),with pedestrians(V2P),the infrastructure(V2I),the network(V2N)or with the whole environment(V2X)to achieve anticipatory driving and avoid abrupt maneuvers.Therefore,se

42、lf-driving cars could improve the overall traffic flow by up to 35%5 and reduce traffic jams,especially in metropolitan areas.There would be less wasted time and passengers would suffer a lot less in congestion.Self-Driving vehicles will not onlytraveling more comfortable and/or productive,it also w

43、ill impact time-managementand change all our in-home habits.Contribution:Nuro7 FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWS6IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE EXPERIENCE IS KING In the coming years more consumers will have the

44、 chance to experience semi-autonomous features.For the industry,it is promising to see that consumers who have experienced semi-autonomous vehicles have a higher consideration for buying fully autonomous vehicles,compared to those who have no experience.Consideration AD WILL LEAD TO NEW CONCEPTS AND

45、 CHANGE OUR HABITS There will be further aspects and habits of peoples daily lives that will change.Drinking and driving is strictly prohibited,but in the future drinking while in a car can become common.AD shuttles can turn into mobile bar lounges and express restaurants where you can spend time wi

46、th friends while travelling.Perhaps entertainment groups could offer mobile cinemas or AD gaming pods we already see early concepts of this with Audi Holoride.As drivers become users and passengers without the need to stay alert,sleeping while traveling will be the new normal.With such a change in h

47、abits,this could change the hotel business and lead towards AD overnight accommodations with sleep&ride services.Maybe Marriott will decide to offer mobile beds for travelers?AVs could be in constant motion while the AV owner is working at home or in the office.Owners of autonomous vehicles can earn

48、 passive income by providing autonomous rides to others or by delivering goods without their involvement.Many new mobility concepts could become reality.GAUGING THE INTEREST OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING Many tech enterprises and OEMs in the USA are pushing towards self-driving.However,this doesnt mean that

49、 American consumers are excited about AVs.Today,new car owners in the USA,Japan and Germany are not seriously considering fully autonomous vehicles.But in contrast,the Chinese are far more interested in self-driving vehicles.Overall,Western consumers generally tend to be more reserved,while the Chin

50、ese are more accepting.Therefore,it is not surprising that Chinese consumers are far more open towards new technologies and more interested in self-driving vehicles.The higher consideration in China and Brazil might also arise from a desire to escape the challenges of particularly high traffic densi

51、ty.Consideration6 EDUCATION AND EXPOSURE ARE KEY Within the last two years,there were a lot of Battery Electric Vehicles(BEV)launched with significant media coverage and advertisements while there was less communication about AVs.We see that the interest and consideration of BEVs is significantly hi

52、gher and has been continuously rising over the last two years,while the attitudes towards vehicles with full autonomous mode remained unchanged.Compared with 2020 and 2021,there was no significant movement in the overall interest in self-driving cars.It will be interesting to see if the Automotive a

53、nd Tech industry will be able to positively boost the opinions towards AVs in the coming years,as more and more models will be in the market which offer at least semi-autonomous driving(Level 2-3).USA31%20%49%Germany33%21%46%Japan25%31%34%Brazil51%30%18%China51%27%14%Would considerNeutralWould not c

54、onsiderPositive sentiment towards vehicles with Full Autonomous Mode7 202046%202145%202245%AD Driving ExperienceAD Riding ExperienceNon-AD Experience66%55%28%The amount of experience further correlates with country specific consideration levels both in the USA(25%)and Germany(34%),the experience8 of

55、 driving or riding a car with semi-autonomous features is significantly lower than in China(43%).89IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWSLikely to consider AVs38%Not likely to consider

56、AVs35%More likely 18-41(Gen Y/Z)56%More likely 58-74(Boomer)43%Skews slightly male54%Skews slightly female55%Likely to have children at home69%Unlikely to have children at home63%More likely to commute to work83%One third do not commute29%Live in a major metropolitan city57%Live in rural area/suburb

57、s53%Experienced in Semi-autonomous driving/riding50%Unexperienced in Semi-autnomous driving/riding87%WHICH CONSUMERS ARE MOST EXCITED ABOUT AD?Societies can benefit from autonomous driving,yet the level of consideration is different by age group.ConsiderationIt is also not a surprise that those who

58、are considering AD see themselves as early adopters.I am an early adopter of cutting-edge technologyGen Y/Z(18-41)51%Gen X(42-57)35%Boomers(58-74)24%Likely AD ConsidererNeutralUnlikley AD Considerer74%39%22%And those who have the biggest personal advantages through AD,like commuters,show a higher co

59、nsideration.Only 19%of the non-commuters state that they would consider buying a Fully Autonomous vehicle,while the interest from commuters is far higher(44%).Comparing AV-Considerers and Non-Considerers leads to two opposed consumer types.Those who are interested in autonomous driving are younger c

60、ommuters,living with children in metropolitan areas,while those people who are not interested are more likely to be from the Boomer generation,living in suburbs or rural areas as empty nesters without children in their household and less need to commute into the office.Figure 2 AV consideration prof

61、ileSource:IpsosOwners of autonomous vehicles can earn passive income by providing autonomous rides to others or bydelivering goods without their involvement.Contribution:Zoox,Inc.11 FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWS10IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOU

62、S DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE THE ROAD TO AD:MANEUVERING THROUGH THE BARRIERS The Automotive and Tech industry is investing a lot of resources and money into the development of connected and autonomous vehicles.If the industry wants to make Autonomous Vehicles a real success through transform

63、ing mobility,the interest in AVs across all age groups and customer segments must grow.It is not just about increasing awareness,as most consumers are already aware about AD technologies.Over 80%of consumers in all markets are aware of AD technology only in Japan(39%)do they state they have never he

64、ard about fully autonomous driving.Its more about educating the consumers to better understand the advantages both personal and for the society overall.Trust in the technology is also paramount.There is a lot of communication needed to overcome the fears about this innovation and digitalizing mobili

65、ty.There are many aspects Auto-Tech must take into consideration when discussing autonomous driving.Especially safety concerns,which are seen as an issue across all age groups when thinking about driving fully autonomous.Concerned about my own safety in AD64%Gen Y/Z(18-41)65%Gen X(42-57)72%Boomers(5

66、8-74)64%Gen Y/Z(18-41)64%Gen X(42-57)74%Boomers(58-74)There is a fear of car crashes due to bugs in AI or hacking while traveling.There will be data security and privacy concerns too and the need to answer the question:“who is owning my personal information?”,like mobility patterns of passengers or

67、video footage of others.There will also be a fear of loss of autonomy of when and where to drive.Not necessarily the scenario of potential mobility lockdowns,but the risks of black box mobility not being able to choose the preferred route.Consumers might be skeptical as to whether there are more adv

68、antages over disadvantages.Several new safety features became mandatory over the years,for instance having to wear a seatbelt at all times.What if autonomous driving features will be compulsory in the years to come?Younger families who own a car and use their trunk as a mobile storage space for a ba

69、by stroller might not have enough money to buy a car with self-driving functions and will be forced towards AD shared mobility.A lot of AD benefits are claimed(higher safety,less traffic,nicer and more hospitable cities,more spare time,and democratized autonomy)but before those benefits can be achie

70、ved trust must be gained.Both in the innovative technology itself as well in the ethics and standards of AD usage.Concerned about the safety of others(motorists,pedestrians,cyclists)Trust in the technology is also paramount.There is a lot of communication needed to overcome the fears about this inno

71、vation and digitalizing mobility.Contribution:AutoX 13 FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWS12IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE REFERENCES 1.Ipsos Mobility Navigator/Q15.Please indicate your level of agreement with eac

72、h of the following statements regarding fully autonomous vehicles.Autonomous vehicles will be too expensive for me2.Ipsos Mobility Navigator/Q14.When do you expect to start seeing fully autonomous vehicles that can handle all roads and environmental conditions in your country?3.United Nations,https:

73、/www.un.org/en/global-issues/ageing4.Ipsos-The Future of ageing,UK,20195.University of Cambridge,2019,https:/ Mobility Navigator/Q13.When shopping for your next new vehicle,how likely are you to consider purchasing one with Full Autonomous Mode if it were available?7.Ipsos Mobility Navigator/Q12.Bas

74、ed on the definition that was provided and what you know about this feature,what is your overall opinion of Full-Autonomous Mode?8.Ipsos Mobility Navigator/Q19.Which of the following best describes your experience using semi-autonomous features?This Ipsos View is based on Consumer Insights which wer

75、e collected in the Ipsos Mobility Navigator Study in USA,China,Germany,Japan,and Brazil.1,000 new car owner were interviewed in each country(USA n=2,000)in June and July 2022.In addition,25 expert interviews were conducted with internal and external experts(at Car Manufacturers,Automotive Suppliers&

76、Tech companies,as well Universities(professors&scientific staff)in USA,China and in Europe.For more information,please contact FutureM THE FUTURE OF AD:THE JOURNEY AHEAD Experts assume AD technology will be ready,launched and continuously improved over the coming years.For the next two decades,low m

77、arket shares of highly/fully autonomous vehicles(Level 4/5)are expected,but we will see Robo Taxis and self-driving transportation of people and goods and other new concepts first.There will be more semi and highly automated vehicles arriving in the premium and luxury segments and becoming more prom

78、inent on the roads.Plus,all consumers can be exposed to semi-autonomous experiences made possible by using active Advanced Driver Assistance Systems(ADAS)features in the latest vehicles on the road today.Trial and experience of these vehicles and features will help consumers get over the fear hurdle

79、 and trust vehicles to handle more drives over time.In addition to solving all the technical AI questions within the complex environment,it is equally important to ensure that the industry is taking the consumers on the journey towards autonomous.Without any increased consumer consideration in AVs,t

80、he Return on Investment might take longer than expected.Communicating,show-casing trials,and proving the benefits of Autonomous Driving will be key.A lot of AD benefits are claimed(higher safety,less traffic,nicer and more hospitable cities,more spare time,and democratized autonomy)but before those

81、benefits can be achieved trust must be gained.Contribution:Nuro 1415IPSOS VIEWS|FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE FUTURE OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND THE IMPACT ON OUR LIFE|IPSOS VIEWSAUTHORSPeter Otto,Chief Client Director,Ipsos Global Client OrganisationJohn Kiser,Executive Vice President of Automotive&Mobility,Ipsos in the USJack Chiu,Head of Auto&NEV Sector,Ipsos ChinaFUTURE OF MOBILITYAutonomous driving and the impact on our lifeThe Ipsos Views white papers are produced by the Ipsos Knowledge CIpsos