《世界贸易组织(WTO):2022年12月20国集团农业市场信息月度报告(英文版)(18页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《世界贸易组织(WTO):2022年12月20国集团农业市场信息月度报告(英文版)(18页).pdf(18页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、MarketMonitorNo.104 December 2022ContentsFeature article:Is Speculation Driving CommodityPrice Volatility?2World supply-demand outlook3Crop monitor5Policy developments8International prices11Futures markets13Market indicators14Fertilizer outlook16Ocean freight markets17Explanatory notes18WHEATMAIZERI
2、CESOYBEANSMarkets at a glanceEasingNeutralTighteningFROMPREVIOUSFORECASTSFROMPREVIOUSSEASONWith northern hemisphere grain and oilseedcrops largely harvested,and the Black SeaGrain Initiative extended for another 120days,market attention is shifting to grow-ing conditions in the southern hemisphere.T
3、he third consecutive year of La Nia hasprolonged drought conditions in Argentina,resulting in sharply reduced wheat produc-tion prospects relative to last year.By con-trast,La Nia has resulted in abnormally wetconditionsinAustralia,whichexpectsabove-average wheat yields;however,concerns re-main over
4、 the quality of the crop,whichcould impact prices for milling wheat.Plant-ing progress for South American maize andsoybeans are on pace,but it is still too earlyto tell whether yields will return to more nor-mal levels after last years drought-reducedproduction.The Market Monitor is a product of the
5、 Agricultural Market Information System(AMIS).It covers international markets for wheat,maize,riceand soybeans,giving a synopsis of major market developments and the policy and other market drivers behind them.The analysis is a collectiveassessment of the market situation and outlook by the ten inte
6、rnational organizations and entities that form the AMIS Secretariat.2AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Feature articleIs Speculation Driving Commodity Price Volatility?The debate whether speculation is driving food pricevolatility has come back to the forefront.Especially forlow-income countrie
7、s,such volatility in prices can in-crease food security risks,thus calling for a thorough in-vestigation of the role of speculation on food markets.Tothis end,AMIS organized a public webinar with a groupofexpertsincommodityfuturesmarkets,coveringawiderange of perspectives.Speculation is most frequen
8、tly associated with invest-ment operations in commodity futures markets,whichare used by agricultural producers and buyers for hedg-ing purposes.By agreeing on a future price of a com-modity,the price risk of these market participants(com-mercials)can be transferred to investors(financials),who buy
9、and sell futures contracts in anticipation of mak-ingaprofit,addingliquiditytothemarket.Thisbuyingandselling of futures contracts with the objective of makinga profit rather than reducing risks related to the physicalexchange of the commodity can be referred to as spec-ulation.In order to determine
10、whether speculation is indeed dis-torting food prices,it is important to consider that com-modity futures markets can play their function as a pricerisk management tool only if they reflect the underlyingvalue of the cash price,which is periodically guaranteedby the fact that futures contracts can b
11、e physically deliv-ered.Although used for only a very limited share of thetotal positions held in futures exchanges,this possibilityfor a physical delivery allows market participants to takeadvantage of any price discrepancy between cash andfutures price and ensures price convergence when con-tracts
12、 expire.The literature usually identifies three ways in which spec-ulation may destabilize markets:For one,speculative ac-tivities such as trend following(a market strategy basedon buying when the price of commodity futures goes upand selling when the prices go down)may cause futuresprices to regula
13、rly overshoot or undershoot the level ofthe underlying cash price.Although the literature is farfrom conclusive about the depth or frequency of this typeof phenomenon,there is broad agreement that any ef-fects would usually be short-lived.In a second category,speculation is suspected to causefutures
14、 prices to periodically diverge from fundamentalvalues in a more substantial way.In this context,activi-ties of commodity index funds are viewed as a potentialdriver as they hold large long(i.e.buying)positions thatcan move the entire market.While the hypothesis of theexistence of such a phenomenon
15、raises legitimate con-cerns,the bulk of the evidence in the literature suggeststhat in practice these funds have little to no impact oncommodity futures prices.The last concern is about a potential manipulation dur-ing the delivery of a futures contract,usually coined as acorner.In these cases,a man
16、ipulator tries to gathera position to be delivered that is large enough to causea divergence between cash and futures prices.Deliv-ery manipulation is arguably the most concerning formin which speculation can impact markets as it breaks thevery core function of commodity futures as a risk man-agemen
17、t tool.To avoid it,market regulators such as theCommodity Futures Trading Commission in the UnitedStates use instruments such as position limits,which seta maximum number of contracts that can be held fornon-hedging purposes.While opinions on the exact impact of speculation mightdiffer,it is usually
18、 regarded as indispensable to ensurethe smooth functioning of futures markets.Allowing anadequate level of speculation for liquidity purposes with-out destabilizing markets is a delicate affair.By providinginformation on supply,demand and prices,commodityexchanges,market regulators and even initiati
19、ves suchas AMIS all have a role to play to promote fair and or-derly markets.Yet,even with fully transparent food mar-kets,there might be instances when prices will be excep-tionally volatile,and these require the urgent attention ofpolicy makers in view of the detrimental impact that thesesituation
20、s might have on food security.Is Speculation Driving Commodity PriceVolatility?Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war,agricultural fu-tures market prices have been highly volatile,with lev-els not seen since the food price spikes in 2007/08and 2010/11.Some believe that market speculatorsand managed m
21、oney funds are to blame,by dis-torting market prices and thus hampering means bywhich producers,merchants and other hedgers caneffectivelymanagepricerisks.Thisseminarexaminedthe role of speculation in markets and discussed theimpact of speculation in previous periods of high foodprices,and the role
22、it plays in current markets.AMIS Webinar-Is Speculation Driving CommodityPrice Volatility?AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20223World supply-demand outlookWheatFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.778.2641.3783.8645.4781.1642.77
23、79.4642.5782.7644.7781.6644.7791.9653.9Supply1070.2802.91077.5805.11074.2801.81070.1789.01059.0779.21059.8795.61071.1800.9Utiliz.773.2630.4775.0636.3774.7636.0793.8645.8791.2647.2780.6639.7785.5644.4Trade195.7186.0193.7185.7194.0186.0205.1195.5206.6197.1196.7186.8192.8184.4Stocks293.0159.1299.6158.3
24、300.1158.8276.3134.6267.8123.5279.2145.9285.6148.1I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SMaizeFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.1212.3939.71167.5892.51163.6888.61217.5944.91168.4894.41218.8946.31167.9894.9Supply1498.51071.81473.01039.21470
25、.41036.51510.31032.01476.1992.91497.51030.61452.6991.5Utiliz.1199.4907.51185.6889.21185.7889.31202.6911.61175.3880.31212.7911.61190.5885.3Trade181.9159.8180.2161.2182.3163.3193.0171.1183.5165.5179.2156.7172.3153.3Stocks306.8148.0288.6133.2286.0130.6307.798.5300.894.6284.796.5262.187.1I NM I L L I O
26、NT O N N E SRiceFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.525.6379.8512.6367.4512.8367.7515.1366.1503.7356.7516.0366.9507.8361.5Supply719.4470.5709.5463.7709.9464.2703.0437.5686.8426.8698.1442.0688.0436.0Utiliz.521.9369.9518.3371.4519.
27、0371.8519.9363.5517.8362.8518.0364.8514.7363.3Trade54.448.752.948.452.948.455.049.353.048.051.446.448.845.8Stocks197.196.5193.492.4194.093.0183.170.1169.061.2180.172.2173.269.7I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SSoybeanFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 De
28、c9 Nov17 NovProd.355.4339.0392.4373.0394.6375.1355.6339.2390.5372.1352.2335.8386.7367.2Supply406.0366.1433.4394.9435.4397.0455.6408.1485.2435.0406.8359.4430.9381.6Utiliz.369.1256.7380.6264.7380.5264.6363.2255.9380.2263.6362.5254.2378.1263.9Trade154.462.8167.168.6167.168.6154.062.5169.171.1155.064.21
29、65.469.1Stocks40.821.848.227.249.728.794.762.9102.270.744.314.452.921.5I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SWHEAT2022 production still forecast to reach a record level,up0.4 percent year-on-year,but lowered slightly this month on reducedproduction prospects in Argentina due to prolonged dry conditions.Utiliza
30、tion in 2022/23 headed for a marginal expansion from the2021/22 level with growth in food consumption offsetting a foreseendecline in feed use of wheat,mostly in China.Trade in 2022/23(July/June)forecast to slightly decline from the2021/22 level and virtually unchanged m/m with higher expectedshipme
31、nts for Australia and the Russian Federation offsetting lowersales anticipated for Argentina and the EU.Stocks(ending in 2023)nearly stable m/m and forecast to rise by 2.4percent above opening levels,with most of the expected buildupconcentrated in China and the Russian Federation.MAIZE2022 producti
32、on lowered slightly m/m,largely due to adownward revision in Ukraine reflecting war-related disruptions,bringingthe global forecast down to 4.0 percent below last years output.Utilization 2022/23 forecast unchanged m/m and still pointing to a 1.1percent decline compared to the 2021/22 level,underpin
33、ned by lowerfeed use and,to a lesser extent,industrial use.Trade in 2022/23(July/June)now forecast near the 2021/22 levelfollowing an upward revision this month mostly reflecting strong exportpace from Brazil and Paraguay,and robust purchases by the EU.Stocks(ending in 2023)lowered this month,mostly
34、 in Ukraine onaccount of lower production prospects,and now forecast to fall 6.8percent below opening levels.RICEproduction in 2022 still seen falling 2.4 percent below the 2021all-time high,despite some small upward revisions for a few countries.Utilization in 2022/23 raised somewhat,as slightly hi
35、gher non-food useforecasts for China and upgrades to food intake namely in theDemocratic Republic of the Congo and Malaysia outweigh a smalldownward revision for India.Trade in 2023 unchanged m/m,but now forecast to fall 2.8 percentbelow a revised forecast for 2022.Stocks(2022/23 carry-out)raised sl
36、ightly following upgrades namely forthe EU,Senegal and Venezuela.As a result,global reserves are nowpredicted to fall 1.6 percent below their record opening level to thesecond highest volume on record.SOYBEAN2022/23 production lifted marginally on higherforecasts for Brazil and the US,while the prol
37、onged dryness in Argentinacontinues to be of concern.Utilization in 2022/23 broadly stable m/m,with a higher crush forecastfor the US offset by lower consumption projections mostly in India.Trade in 2022/23(Oct/Sep)virtually unchanged,confirming an 8 percentrecovery in global soybean shipments after
38、 contracting for twoconsecutive seasons.Stocks(2022/23 carry-out)raised slightly,mainly reflecting upwardrevisions for Brazil and the US thanks to their higher productionprospects.+iWorld BalancesData shown in the second rows refer to world aggregates without China;world trade data refer to exports;
39、and world trade without China excludes exports to China.To review and compare data,by country and commodity,across three main sources,go to https:/app.amis-outlook.org/#/market-database/compare-sourcesEstimates and forecasts may differ across sources for many reasons,including different methodologie
40、s.For more information see Explanatory notes on the lastpage of this report.4AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022World supply-demand outlookRevisions(FAO-AMIS)to 2022/23 forecasts since the previous reportProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocksProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocksProduction
41、ImportsUtilizationExportsStocksProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocks-2-38992139--112-64--585900-71750-2903-127--112--5100-100-2000-100-1500-50-30-50--20027700271500--14-700-2-100
42、-46-38-18-20-249-500--100-17500-1254-1000--142-1000-32-68--22--89-3039200-50-50-500-426-5-5-10-10-1000500--15-15-1500--100-21-61110-30-30--50300250-60-50-10-189-4000-4000-1336---635--15092890-
43、340-550-123-117-10WHEATMAIZERICESOYBEANSWORLDTotal AMISArgentinaAustraliaBrazilCanadaChina MainlandEgyptEUIndiaIndonesiaJapanKazakhstanMexicoNigeriaPhilippinesRep.of KoreaRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaThailandTrkiyeUkraineUKUSViet NamIn thousand tonnes+iNoteOnly significant changes(of more tha
44、n 1 000 tonnes)are displayed in the table.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20225Crop monitorCrop conditions in AMIS countriesCrop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of 28 November.Crop conditions over the main growingareas for wheat,maize,rice,and soybean are based o
45、n a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earthobservation data.Only crops that are in other-than-favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbolConditions at a glanceWheatIn the southern hemisphere,harvesting is picking up speedwith exceptional yields in
46、 Australia and poor yields in Ar-gentina.In the northern hemisphere,winter wheat is undermixed conditions going into winter dormancy.MaizeIn the northern hemisphere,harvesting is wrapping up withoverall mixed conditions,while in India,sowing of the Rabicrop is beginning.In the southern hemisphere,so
47、wing con-tinues in Argentina,Brazil and South Africa.RiceIn China,harvesting of late rice is wrapping up while India istransitioning from Kharif rice to Rabi rice.In Southeast Asia,wet-season rice harvesting is at its peak in northern coun-tries while Indonesia wraps up dry-season rice harvesting.So
48、ybeansIn the northern hemisphere,harvesting is wrapping up inCanada,India and Ukraine.In the southern hemisphere,sowing is beginning in Argentina under dryness,while pro-gressing in Brazil under favourable conditions.La Nia and Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ConditionsThe El Nio-Southern Oscillation(E
49、NSO)is currently in the LaNia phase.La Nia conditions will likely continue into early2023(76 percent chance for December to February and 59 per-cent chance for January to March),according to the IRI/CPC.Neutral ENSO conditions are likely after that.NegativeIndianOceanDipole(IOD)conditionsweakeneddur
50、ingNovember,and neutral IOD conditions are forecast for Decem-ber,signifying the end of the negative IOD event.Persistent La Nia conditions since late 2020 have producedhigh-impact,multi-year droughts in eastern East Africa,south-ern South America,Central and Southern Asia,and southernNorth America.
51、The forecast continuation of La Nia for sev-eral more months raises concerns about continued dry condi-tions in these areas.Recovery from severe drought can be alengthy process,in which several seasons of improved precipi-tation may be needed to replenish reservoirs and groundwater.Source:UCSB Clima
52、te Hazards Center6AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Crop monitorSummaries by cropWheatIn Australia,conditions are exceptional in most areas,despiteongoing flooding in parts of eastern Australia.Harvesting iswell underway in northern and western cropping regions.InArgentina,yields are poor in mo
53、st areas due do drought asharvesting is wrapping up in the north and beginning in themain producing areas,many plots have been used as forage.Inthe EU,conditions are generally favourable,albeit with delayedsowing in the southern countries due to low soil moisture lev-els.In the UK,conditions are fav
54、ourable.In Trkiye,sowing iswrapping up under dry conditions in the west.In Ukraine,con-ditions are generally favourable,albeit with persistent drynessin Odessa and disruptions/security concerns in the southernand eastern regions due to the ongoing war.In the RussianFederation,sowing is wrapping up u
55、nder generally favourableconditions except for dryness in the southern Caucasus.InChina,winter wheat is under favourable conditions with amplesoil moisture.In India,sowing is beginning in the northern andcentral states.In the US,dry conditions across the Great Plainsfrom South Dakota to Texas contin
56、ues to be a concern goinginto winter.In Canada,winter wheat sowing is complete andunder favourable conditions going into winter dormancy.MaizeIn the US,harvesting is wrapping up in the north under ex-ceptional conditions in Michigan and Wisconsin.In Canada,harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional
57、 conditions in On-tario.In Mexico,harvesting is ongoing for the spring-summerseason(larger season)under favourable conditions.In the EU,harvesting is wrapping up with below-average yields acrossmost of western and southern Europe due to droughts andheatwaves.In Ukraine,harvesting slowly continues wi
58、th justover half the crop collected so far,so many crops will likely beharvested in during the winter or early spring.In India,sowingof the Rabi crop is beginning under favourable conditions.InBrazil,sowing of the spring-planted crop(smaller)is continuingunder favourable conditions with a slight red
59、uction in the totalsown area expected compared to last year.In Argentina,sow-ing of the early-planted crop(typically larger season)continuesat a slow pace due to dryness.Recent rains have improvedconditions in some areas,but much of the intended sown areawill likely shift to the later-planted crop(t
60、ypically smaller season)in hopes of better soil moisture conditions.In South Africa,ample rainfall since mid-October has supported sowing andearly development.ExceptionalWatchOut-of-SeasonFavourablePoorNo DataWetDryExtreme EventConflictHotCoolDelayed-OnsetSocio-EconomicConditionsDrivers+iPie chart d
61、escriptionEach slice represents a countrys share of total AMIS production(5-year average),with the main producing countries(95 percent of production)shown individuallyand the remaining 5 percent grouped into the Other AMIS Countries category.Sections within each country are weighted by the sub-natio
62、nal production statistics(5-year average)of the respective country and account for multiple cropping seasons(i.e.spring and winter wheat).The late vegetative to reproductive crop growthstages are generally the most sensitive periods for crop development.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20227Crop m
63、onitorRiceIn China,harvesting is wrapping up for late rice under mixedconditions due to persistent extreme heat and dry weatherduring the fertility period in the Yangtze River Basin.In India,harvesting of the Kharif crop is wrapping up in the southern andeastern states,while sowing is beginning for
64、the Rabi crop.InIndonesia,harvesting of dry-season rice is wrapping up whilethe sowing of wet-season rice continues,albeit at a slower pacethan last year.In Viet Nam,harvesting of wet-season rice isongoing in the north.In the south,harvesting continues for theother wet-season rice(autumn-winter rice
65、 and seasonal rice),while sowing of dry-season rice begins in the Mekong Delta.In Thailand,harvesting of wet-season rice is ongoing undermixed conditions due to flooding in October that caused ex-tensive damage in the Northeastern region.In the Philippines,wet-season rice is harvesting under mixed c
66、onditions as thepassage of multiple tropical cyclones caused severe damageto crops in parts of Luzon and some parts of Visayas and Min-danao.In Brazil,sowing is wrapping up with a reduction in thetotal sown area.SoybeansIn Canada,harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional condi-tions in Ontario,Man
67、itoba,and Quebec.In Ukraine,harvestingis wrapping up under generally favourable conditions outsideof the occupied territories.In India,harvesting is wrapping upin the major producing states under favourable conditions.InBrazil,sowing is progressing under favourable conditions de-spite earlier delays
68、 due to adverse weather.An increase in totalsown area is expected compared to last year.In Argentina,sowing is beginning in the main producing areas of BuenosAires,Entre Ros,Santa Fe and Crdoba,as recent rains im-proved soil moisture conditions.However,the lack of surfacesoil moisture might impact t
69、he sowing progress,with southernSanta Fe and northern Buenos Aires being the most affectedregions.Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countriescan be found in the GEOGLAM Early Warning Crop Mon-itor,published 28 November.ExceptionalWatchOut-of-SeasonFavourablePoorNo DataWetDryExtreme EventCon
70、flictHotCoolDelayed-OnsetSocio-EconomicConditionsDrivers+iSources and disclaimersThe Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners(in alphabetical order):Argentina(Buenos Aires Grains Exchange,INTA),Asia Rice Countries(AFSIS,ASEAN+3&Asia RiCE),Australia(ABAR
71、ES&CSIRO),Brazil(CONAB&INPE),Canada(AAFC),China(CAS),EU(EC JRC MARS),Indonesia(LAPAN&MOA),International(CIMMYT,FAO,IFPRI&IRRI),Japan(JAXA),Mexico(SIAP),Russian Federation(IKI),South Africa(ARC&GeoTerraImage&SANSA),Thailand(GISTDA&OAE),Ukraine(NASU-NSAU&UHMC),USA(NASA,UMD,USGS-FEWS NET,USDA(FAS,NASS)
72、,Viet Nam(VAST&VIMHEMARD).The findings and conclusions in this joint multiagency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts,and do not necessarily reflect those of theindividual agencies represented by these experts.More detailed information on the GEOGLAM crop assessments is availabl
73、e at https:/cropmonitor.org.8AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Policy developmentsWheatIn the aftermath of a major drought,on 1 November Ar-gentina authorized delays in the exportation of wheat to sta-bilize domestic supplies,allowing companies to reschedulecontracted wheat exports without incu
74、rring the applicable 15percent fine.On 27 November,the Ministry of Supply and Internal Tradeof Egypt,in coordination with the Egyptian Commodity Ex-change(EGX)added wheat to the list of traded commodi-ties.In the wake of the war on Ukraine,the measure is ex-pected to spur market orientation in wheat
75、 markets,stabi-lize prices,and increase supply chain stakeholders abilityto make informed plans,investment and planting decisionsbased on real time trading operations,seasonality conditionsand current price data.With immediate effect,GASC startedcontributing wheat to mills through the EGX platform t
76、wice aweek.MaizeOn 8 November,the Ministry of Agriculture in Argentina is-sued Circular SSMA 05/2022 which increases the maize ex-port quota for the 2022/23 campaign to 20 million tonnescompared to 10 million tonnes previously.RiceOn 4 November,Australia and Vietnam initiated theMekong Delta Sustain
77、able Rice Value Chain Project,a 4-yearpartnership that aims to connect Vietnamese smallholderrice-growing communities to high-value markets.New re-search will be launched by the University of Queensland todevelop disease-resistant rice varieties suitable for tropicalconditions.On 17 November,in view
78、 of persisting critical shortages inEgypt,rice was declared a strategic commodity with imme-diate effect for a three-month period(Prime Ministers Decreeno.4148 of 2022,published in Official Gazette no.46).Toprevent concealment,hoarding and speculation by produc-ers,suppliers,distributors,or sellers,
79、domestic rice market-ing was brought under stricter competition and disclosure re-quirements,subject to the application of fines and penalties.By 27 November,all stakeholders were to notify the compe-tent directorates of supply and internal trade of the purposeof storage;quality(thin or broad grain)
80、and quantity of ricekept in storage;packaging and shelf-life details;disclosure ofany company contracts/agreements.The deadline was sub-sequently extended twice to 4 December and 25 December2022.On 18 November,the Ministry of Supply and Internal Tradein Egypt capped the sale price of fine white rice
81、(less than 3percent broken)in luxury packing at EGY 18(USD 0.74)perkilogram(Cabinet Resolution no.89 of 2022,published inOfficial Gazette no.46).To improve the availability of domes-tic supplies of paddy rice,Ministerial Resolution No.109 of2022 simultaneously required all farmers and owners of agri
82、-cultural holdings to provide approximately 25 percent of allharvested rice to the competent supply and internaltrade au-thorities during the August-December 2022 supply season,which was recently extended until 15 January 2023.Failureto comply could mean farmers would not be eligible to re-ceive sub
83、sidized fertilizers and pesticides,and possibly notallowed to plant rice in the following year.On 29 November,the Department of Commerce in Indialifted the ban on exports of organic non-basmati rice includ-ing broken rice(Notification No.45/2015-2020.See also theOctober 2022 issue of the AMIS Market
84、 Monitor).On 15 November,Thailand approved a budget of THB 81billion(USD 2.2 billion)to implement its Rice Price GuaranteeScheme during fiscal year 2022-23,of which THB 18.7 billion(USD 515 million)will take the form of direct payments;THB7.5 billion(USD 207 million)will be used to stabilize prices;
85、and THB 55 billion(USD 1.5 billion)to reduce farmers inputcosts and improve rice quality.SoybeansAfter implementing an initial preferential exchange rate atARS 200 per dollar measure in September,Argentina in-troduced a preferential exchange rate on the exportation ofsoybeans and soybean products at
86、 ARS 230 per dollar,ef-fective from 28 November until 31 December 2022(see alsothe October 2022 issue of the AMIS Market Monitor).BiofuelsOn 21 November,the Ministry of Mines and Energy in Brazilmaintained the mandatory blend ratio of biodiesel in dieselat 10 percent for the next 4 months.The blendi
87、ng mandatecould,however,increase to 15 percent in April 2023,follow-ing the National Energy Policy Council decision,subject tothe approval of the upcoming government in January 2023.On 15 November,Thailand authorized a 2-month extensionof the diesel tax break in order to lower energy costs.Policy de
88、velopmentsAMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20229Policy developmentsOn 11 November,the Department for International Trade inthe UK revoked import tariffs on renewable fuels from theUS and Canada.The Trade Remedies Authority indicatedthe removal of the levy on hydrotreated vegetable oil will beappli
89、ed retroactively from 30 January 2021.FertilizersOn 9 November,the EU unveiled plans to improve the avail-ability and affordability of fertilizers within the EU and abroad.Fertilizer businesses would be given priority for unhinderedaccess to natural gas in the case of rationing.In addition tofunds r
90、aised from measures like the cap on the market rev-enues of certain electricity generators,an amount of EUR450 million(USD 450 million)will be expedited from its agri-cultural reserve as part of the temporary crisis frameworkamendment to help farmers offset high input costs.The EUis championing fert
91、ilizer trade transparency and will launcha market observatory in 2023 to share data on production,use,prices and trade.On 11 November,the Ministry of Industry and Trade in theRussian Federation set the rate of export duty on all typesof fertilizers at 23.5 percent and the cut-off price at USD450 per
92、 tonne.On 28 November,the Russian Federation in-creased the export quota for nitrogen fertilizers by 750 000tonnes until the end of December 2022 to preserve pro-duction volumes and prevent overstocking of warehouses.In particular,the quota for urea exports was increased by400 000 tonnes;the export
93、quota for ammonium nitrate-by200 000 tonnes;and that for urea-ammonium nitrate mixture-by 150 000 tonnes.On 2 November,the Department of Fertilizers in India ap-proved a proposal to introduce a Nutrient Based Subsidy forvarious nutrients such as nitrogen(INR 98.02-USD 1.2),phosphorus,(INR 98.02-USD
94、1.2),potash(INR 23.65-USD 0.3)and sulphur(INR 6.12-USD 0.1)for the Rabi sea-son starting 1 October 2022 to 31 March 2023.The totalamount of approved subsidies was INR 518.7 billion(USD6.4 billion),which includes support for indigenous fertilizersthrough freight subsidies.Across the boardExport restr
95、ictionsOn 1 November,the Minister of Economy in Indonesia ex-tended the waiver on the application of the export levy onpalm oil until the end of 2022 provided the reference pricedid not exceed USD 800 per tonne(see also the September2022 issue of the AMIS Market Monitor).On 15 November,the reference
96、 price reached USD 826.58 per tonne.Conse-quently,the export levy was reinstated at USD 85 per tonne.At the same time,the export tax was raised from USD 18 pertonne to USD 33 per tonne.Food securityOn 1 November,India exempted with immediate effect allwholesalers and large chain retailers from compl
97、ying withthe Stock Limit Order that was enacted on 8 October 2021.Spiking domestic and international prices of edible oils andoilseeds had caused significant hoarding of soybean seeds.In view of recent price declines,wholesalers and large retail-ers in all states and territories have now entire disc
98、retion toset stocks of edible oil and oilseeds of all brands and varietiesat levels they deem appropriate.On 8 November,the National Food Agency(NFA)in Indone-sia began implementing Presidential Regulation No.125(24October 2022)to establish government food reserves andfulfil up to 5 percent of domes
99、tic consumption needs for 11staple commodities.The new rules also seek to ensure ad-equate food supplies to low-income communities in caseof shortages,price spikes,natural disasters,supply chaindisruptions,and other emergencies.Food reserves will beconstituted through the purchase of domestic produc
100、tion atspecific reference purchase prices(HAP)or government pur-chase prices(HPP)set by NFA.Several institutions are in-volved in preparing technical procedures,including the Min-istry of Finance;Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs);State-Owned Bank Association;and agricultural SOEs.Un-der the
101、supervision of the State Logistics Agency(BULOG),a first phase will focus on laying out detailed technical regu-lations on the planning,procurement and distribution targetsfor national and regional stocks of rice,maize and soybeans.On 24 November,as part international humanitarian assis-tance,Ukrain
102、e issued a government decree allocating UAH900 million(USD 24.5 million)to the Ministry of Internal Af-fairs for the purchase of wheat and maize supplies to Sudan,Yemen,Kenya and Nigeria.Climate changeOn 11 November,the European Commission,Parliamentand Council provisionally agreed to increase the E
103、Us targetfor net carbon removals by natural sinks to 310 million tonnesof CO2 equivalent by 2030.New regulations on the LandUse,Land Use Change and Forestry(LULUCF)are set toenhance the quality of monitoring,reporting and verificationof emissions and removals,using more accurate and pre-cise data mo
104、nitoring,including remote sensing.Under the10AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Policy developmentsLIFE programme,financial support will also be made avail-able to allow EU member States to expand their carbon sinksthrough sustainable land management and upgraded strate-gic plans as part of the
105、Common Agricultural Policy(CAP).+iNoteOnly AMIS participants are marked in bold.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202211International pricesM/MY/YGOI311.1+0.5%+9.9%Wheat300.2-2.9%-1.1%Maize314.4-2.0%+12.8%Rice183.1+1.8%+10.3%Soybeans308.0+2.6%+18.2%International Grains Council(IGC)Grains andOilseed
106、s Index(GOI)and GOI sub-IndicesNov 2022Average*Change*Jan 2000=100,derived from daily export quotationsWheatNovember saw mixed price trends across key origins,asconcerns about unfavourable weather in Argentina and theUS contrasted with worries about global demand amid poorworld economic conditions.T
107、he Russian Federations tempo-rary withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative initially pro-pelled prices higher but values declined thereafter,as the mid-November extension of the deal eased supply fears.Despitesub-optimal growing conditions for domestic winter crops,USprices fell on disappointi
108、ng export demand.EU offers(France)also receded amid stiff competition from Black Sea origins,al-beit a steady pace of loadings and renewed buying by Chinaoffered support.In contrast,quotations in the Russian Feder-ation firmed against the backdrop of accelerating shipments,although with prices terme
109、d nominal at times.MaizeA softer tone prevailed in world maize markets during Novem-ber,with the IGC sub-Index dropping by an average of 2 per-cent.There was a pullback in spot US prices,which turnedlower on a seasonal increase in supplies and some improve-ment in Mississippi River logistics.With ge
110、nerally tepid overseasdemand,concerns about competitiveness also featured.Quo-tations in Argentina drifted lower,but with market activity rathersubdued.Deep sea prices in Ukraine were poorly defined.De-spite the confirmed extension of the shipping corridor agree-ment,fresh business was limited,partl
111、y on concerns aboutshipping delays.In Brazil,old crop values firmed on a strongpace of shipments,which included the loading of a first vesseldestined for China.RiceDespite harvesting pressure in several key exporters,averageinternational rice prices were higher m/m.Thai export offers ad-vanced on cu
112、rrency movements and ideas of stronger demandfrom Indonesia,where the state grain buyer received approval toimport up to 500 000 tonnes over the coming months to replen-ish reserves.Vietnamese quotes were supported by prospectsof sales to Indonesia,and as tight spot availabilities under-pinned.In Pa
113、kistan,values advanced on slow new crop arrivalsand ongoing uncertainty over the impact of heavy floods onproduction,while Indian prices ticked higher amid steady salesto regular buyers.SoybeansWith gains at all origins,average soybean values advancedby 3 percent m/m in November,tied to supportive f
114、undamen-tals and external influences.Although worries about Chinesedemand persisted,US quotations were buoyed by firmer ex-port demand and solid local processing,while gains in soyaproduct prices and outside markets underpinned at times.Thisoutweighed pressure from improving logistics and outlooks f
115、orlarge South American supplies.Cautious farmer selling and ru-mours of a more stringent biodiesel blending mandate buoyedprices in Brazil despite an anticipated record harvest,while of-fers in Argentina were nominally firmer.At that origin,supportfrom building crop worries was countered by pressure
116、 from in-creased farmer sales,which followed the re-introduction of thesoy-dollar programme.GOIWheatMaizeRiceSoybeans2021 November283.2303.4278.7165.9260.5December285.6297.8283.1163.9269.22022 January294.5288.4294.2166.8288.9February315.4295.4310.4167.8323.0March353.4353.6369.7169.6344.0April349.635
117、4.8358.9171.6336.0May352.6375.3347.9177.3334.3June343.3353.8335.7177.0334.1July308.2302.5299.7174.3306.3August309.4292.8306.7174.1313.0September306.4299.9307.4179.5303.3October309.6309.2320.7179.9300.2November311.1300.2314.4183.1308.0IGC commodity price indices(.January 2000=100.)Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22F
118、eb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 222336380GOIWheatMaizeRiceSoybeansIGC commodity price indices12AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022International pricesSelected export prices,currencies and indicesJFM A MJJASO ND0202220202021JFM A MJJASO ND
119、0202220202021JFM A MJJASO ND3603874202021JFM A MJJASO ND300347393720202220202021Daily quotations of selected export prices(USD/tonnes,2020-2022)WHEAT(US No.2 H.R.W.)MAIZE(US No.2 Yellow)RICE(Thai 100%B)SOYBEANS(US No.2 Yellow)Wheat(US No.2,HRW)28-Nov406444376-8.6%+8.0%Maize(US No.2,Yellow
120、)30-Nov321357323-10.0%-0.5%Rice(Thai 100%B)28-Nov437418390+4.5%+12.1%Soybeans(US No.2,Yellow)25-Nov598614485-2.6%+23.3%Daily quotations of selected export pricesEffective dateQuotationMonth agoYear ago%changeM/M%changeY/YUSD/tonneArgentinaARS162.1-6.1%-38.2%AustraliaAUD1.53.8%-9.5%BrazilBRL5.3-0.4%5
121、.3%CanadaCAD1.31.9%-6.5%ChinaCNY7.20.3%-10.9%EgyptEGP24.4-17.1%-35.7%EUEUR1.03.7%-10.5%IndiaINR81.60.8%-8.7%IndonesiaIDR15661.2-1.5%-8.9%JapanJPY142.03.6%-19.7%KazakhstanKZT463.81.8%-6.9%Rep.of KoreaKRW1354.35.3%-12.6%MexicoMXN19.42.8%7.4%NigeriaNGN441.1-1.4%-7.0%PhilippinesPHP57.42.2%-12.4%Russian
122、Fed.RUB60.21.5%20.7%Saudi ArabiaSAR3.80.0%-0.2%South AfricaZAR17.53.7%-11.0%ThailandTHB36.34.4%-8.9%TrkiyeTRY18.6-0.1%-41.9%UKGBP0.93.9%-12.7%UkraineUAH36.80.1%-27.9%Viet NamVND24810.9-2.0%-8.6%AMIS countries currencies against US DollarAMISCountriesCurrencyNov 2022AverageMonthlyChangeAnnualChangeFA
123、O Food Price IndexNov 2021-Nov 2022Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 2255Nominal Broad Dollar IndexNov 2021-Nov 2022Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 225130AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 D
124、ecember 202213Futures marketsMarkets were bearish in November for grains,but thedownward potential seems limited.Soybean futures arestill bullishContinuing concerns over the congested US waterwaysystem have kept US wheat forward curves in contangoDespite a consistent decline in November,volatilityme
125、asures remain in the upper historical rangeMovement in managed money suggest a declininginterest of financial investros in agricultural futuresMONTHLY PRICE TRENDOverall market sentimentFutures pricesOver the past month,a bearish undertone developed on grainfutures markets with the price of wheat an
126、d maize down be-tween 2 and 5 percent in both US and European markets com-pared to October.The renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiativehas taken away some uncertainty,especially in wheat,whereprices have reached their lowest level of the year.However,the potential to decline further seems floored b
127、y low carry-overstocks,which would not be able to cushion many adverse mar-ket developments.US wheat crop conditions for South Amer-ican maize are closely monitored in this regard as are signs ofany loosening of the lockdown restrictions in China,which mightincrease demand for grains.For its part,so
128、ybean futures displayed a much firmer tone inNovember,increasing by about 4 percent m/m in view of strongdemand and concerns about South American yields.Despiterecent spells of dryness,maize and soybean production in Brazilare still expected to reach a record,which should help rebuildsome carry-over
129、 stocks.Volumes&volatilityVolumes were up this month compared to October for wheaton CBOT and Euronext as well as for the CBOT maize con-tract,by 23,35 and 39 percent,respectively.This rebound involume supports the narrative of a seasonally high hedging de-mand at this time of the year for grain exp
130、orters.Interestingly,on two days in November,more wheat contracts were tradedon Euronext compared to the CBOT,illustrating the currentlyvivid wheat exporting activity in Europe and the rather tepidtrading activity in the US in view of the countrys still loggedbarge system.By contrast,volumes were do
131、wn by 39 percenton the CBOT for soybean contracts in November,in a contextof steadily declining participation from managed money over themonth.Historical volatility and implied volatility for wheat showed asteady decline in November;both measures are now back tolevels last seen in January 2022,possi
132、bly because geopoliticalrisks are less of a driving force in grain markets as compared tothe February-May 2022 period.The situation nevertheless re-mains highly volatile with a level of implied volatility in wheat thatis higher than the average observed over the past ten years.Bycontrast,implied vol
133、atility for maize and soybean,while initiallyhigh after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine,has fallen back torelatively normal levels.Forward curvesIn Chicago,wheat futures contracts showed a steepening con-tango in November,indicating that the concerns over logisticalbottlenecks are still far from
134、resolved.The front month wheat fu-tures might decline further until US wheat becomes competitivefor exports,while prices far out on the curve entail higher carrycosts and storage needs.Both maize and soybean forward curves have flattened inNovember.Interestingly,new crop futures prices(with contract
135、months dated after Q3 2023)display a lower level than old cropfutures prices in maize and soybean,suggesting that marketparticipants currently expect fewer tensions next year for thesecommodities.Euronext wheat still shows a steep backwarda-tion,i.e.a higher price on the front months of the curve re
136、flectingthe still vivid level of activity of European exporters.Investment flowsOver the last month,managed money long positions in CBOTmaize and soybean were trimmed,showing that speculativemarket participants remain in risk-off mode.In the same vein,managed money participants were net sellers of w
137、heat andreached their lowest net short position on CBOT wheat sinceMay 2019.Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat3 149.8+23.2%-17.8%Maize140.3-18.1%-24.8%Euronext futures volumes and price evolutionAverage daily volume(1000 tonnes)Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat328.7-3.4%-2.2%Maize314.5-5.1%+13.3%Prices(USD/t)Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat
138、15 724.3+35.1%-15.1%Maize42 161.6+39.0%-10.5%Soybean21 781.4-38.8%-3.0%CME futures volumes and prices evolutionAverage daily volume(1000 tonnes)Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat302.7-5.2%+1.2%Maize263.3-2.3%+16.3%Soybean529.9+4.2%+16.0%Prices(USD/t)14AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Market indicatorsDaily q
139、uotations from leading exchanges-nearby futuresNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22250300350400450500550USD per tonneNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22200250300350400450500USD per tonneNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22250300350400450500USD per tonneNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul
140、22Sep 22Nov 2230040050060070080090010001100USD per tonneWheatMaizeEU(France-NYSE Euronext)Milling WheatUSA(KCBT)Hard Red WheatSouth Africa(Safex)WheatEU(NYSE Liffe)USA(CBOT)South Africa(Safex)YellowChina(DCE)RiceSoybeanUSA(CBOT)Rough RiceChina(ZCE)Milled RiceUSA(CBOT)China(Dalian)Argentina(MATba)Bra
141、zil(BMF)CFTC commitments of tradersMajor categories net length as percentage of open interest*Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Long(bought)Short(sold)Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Long(bought)Short(sold)WheatMaizeComm
142、ercialsSwap PositionsManaged MoneyCommercialsSwap PositionsManaged MoneyNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Long(bought)Short(sold)Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Long(bought)Short(sold)RiceSoybeanCommercialsSwap Positions
143、Managed MoneyCommercialsSwap PositionsManaged Money*Disaggregated futures only.Though not all positions are reflected in the charts,total long positions always equal total short positions.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202215Market indicatorsForward curves260280300320340360EUR per tonneDec 22Jan
144、 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24200220240260280300320340360EUR per tonneNov 22Dec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 2
145、4Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 2429-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2229-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-22700750800850900950USD cent per bushelDec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24520560600640680720USD cent p
146、er bushelDec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 2429-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2229-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2214161820USD per hundredweightNov 22Dec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug
147、23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24014501500USD cent per bushelNov 22Dec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 2429-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2229-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-22Euronext wheat(EBM)Euronext maize(EMA)CBOT wheatCBOT maizeCBO
148、T riceCBOT soybeanHistorical and implied volatilitiesNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22020406080100120Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 2200708090100Historical Volatility(30 days)Implied Volatility(Daily)WheatMaizeRough riceSoybeansWheatMaizeRough riceSoybeans+iAMIS market i
149、ndicatorsSeveral of the indicators covered in this report are updated regularly on the AMIS website.These,as well as other market indicators,can be found at:http:/www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring/indicators/.For more information about forward curves see the feature article in No.75 February AMIS
150、 MarketMonitor 2020.16AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Fertilizer outlook0200400600800016001800USD per tonneNov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Ammonia-US Gulf NOLAAmmonia-Western EuropeUrea-US Gulf NOLAUrea-Black Sea PrillAmmonia and urea(s
151、pot prices)020040060080001600USD per tonne2.23.34.45.56.67.78.89.911.0USD per MMBtuNov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Ammonia averageUrea averageNatural gas(right axis)Ammonia average,urea average and natural gas(spot prices)0500600700
152、8009001000USD per tonneNov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22DAP-US Gulf NOLADAP-BalticPotash-US Gulf NOLAPotash-BalticPotash and phosphate(spot prices)Fertilizer prices continued their downward trend in November,but remain high relative to historical levels.T
153、he supply outlookimproved as nitrogen fertilizer production restarted in Europeand fertilizer exports from the Black Sea might see fewer re-strictions in the coming months after the extension of the BlackSea Grain Initiative.Natural gas prices decreased in November,with relativelylow demand for heat
154、ing during most of the month in theNorthern Hemisphere.Inventories,particularly in Europe andAsia,remain well-stocked.Ammonia prices were down in November.Plants continuedto resume production as lower natural gas prices made pro-duction economically viable.Despite the continued disruptionof Russian
155、ammonia exports due to the war in Ukraine,globalsupplies of ammonia seem sufficient.Countries who previ-ously relied on ammonia imports from the Black Sea havefound other suppliers,and exports from China have beensteadily increasing.Lower industrial demand due to the globaleconomic slowdown also put
156、 downward pressure on prices.Urea prices decreased in November,but in view of theirstill high levels there is concern that farmers might be forgo-ing purchases.Import demand began to slacken in Europe,which sent urea producers to search for other markets-par-ticularly from North Africa.A large India
157、n tender in Novemberdoes not seem to have had a significant impact on prices.DAP prices decreased in November in an overall calm mar-ket environment.The U.S.phosphate export market had aslow month,and Chinese exports were reported to be downsubstantially compared to a year ago.On the importer side,d
158、emand was down in India as DAP purchases concluded forthe season and in Brazil due in part to the devaluation of thecountrys currency.Potash prices decreased further in November as global sup-plies seem sufficient despite sanctions still reducing exportsfrom Belarus.Imports in China were about the s
159、ame as lastyear with Canada being the largest supplier.Trading in Brazilwas limited in November due to lower demand and highstockpiles while inventories in India remain low.Ammonia-US Gulf NOLA1044.0-1.6+1.41402.2 907.0Ammonia-Western Europe1171.952.4-7.4+29.31611.0 1088.3Ammonia avg.across regions1
160、081.822.0-3.9+20.41416.9 997.9Urea-US Gulf519.110.6-12.1-34.0823.1486.9Urea-Black Sea516.22.5-2.9-42.7890.0488.7Urea avg.across regions563.711.9-11.9-35.0888.8563.7DAP-US Gulf665.625.6-8.2-8.4954.0665.6DAP-Baltic678.81.4-5.6-1.2898.5678.8Potash-Baltic-215.0195.0Potash-US Gulf NOLA528.86.0-7.3-22.079
161、9.5528.8Natural gas5.31.0-6.1+5.28.83.7Nov-22averageNov-22std.dev.%changelast month*%changelast year*12 monthhigh12-monthlowAll prices shown are in US dollarsSource:Own elaboration based on Bloomberg*Estimated using available weekly data to date.+iChart and tables descriptionAmmonia and urea:Overvie
162、w of nitrogen-based fertilizer weekly prices(averaged by month)in the US Gulf,Western Europe and Black Sea.Potash&phos-phate:Overview of phosphate and potassium-based fertilizer weekly prices(averaged by month)in the US Gulf,Baltic and Vancouver.Ammonia&urea aver-ages:Monthly average prices from amm
163、onias US Gulf NOLA,Middle East,Black Sea and Western Europe were averaged to obtain ammonia average prices;monthly average prices from ureas US Gulf NOLA,US Gulf Prill,Middle East Prill,Black Sea Prill and Mediterranean were averaged to obtain Urea Average prices.Natural gas:Henry Hub Natural Gas Sp
164、ot Price from ICE up to December 2017 and from Bloomberg(BGAP)from January 2018 onwards.Prices are intradayprices averaged by month.Natural gas is used as major input to produce nitrogen-based fertilizers.DAP:Diammonium PhosphatAMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202217Ocean freight marketsDry bulk f
165、reight market developmentsBaltic Dry Index(BDI)1299.0-28.4%-53.3%sub-indices:Capesize1398.6-33.9%-62.2%Panamax1607.4-23.2%-43.4%Supramax1214.5-26.6%-48.9%Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI)784.8-20.3%-52.2%Nov-22averageChangeM/MY/YSource:Baltic Exchange,IGC.Base period for BDI:4 January 1985=1000;for BHSI:
166、23 May 2006=1000;for GOFI:1 January 2013=100IGC Grains and Oilseeds FreightIndex(GOFI)153.9-11.6%-28.7%sub-Indices:Argentina200.5-10.7%-27.5%Australia99.3-17.7%-23.5%Brazil197.1-14.1%-28.5%Black Sea168.0-7.2%-31.3%Canada117.1-8.8%-32.0%Europe131.2-8.6%-33.2%US121.5-11.5%-26.9%Nov-22averageChangeM/MY
167、/YNov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22-100-50050GOFIBDIBDI and IGC GOFINov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22-3003060ArgentinaAustraliaBrazilSelected IGC GOFI sub-indicesWith surplus vessel supply and limited charterer
168、 demand insome regions,freight rates across the dry bulk complex aver-aged sharply lower month-on-month in November.After themonthly drop,the benchmark Baltic Dry Index(BDI)wasjust one-half of its year ago level.While the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative wastermed positive for the freight
169、 market,broader uncertaintyabout global economic prospects and seaborne trade con-tinued to weigh on market sentiment.This was highlighted bydisappointing October trade data for China which showedthat soyabean imports were the smallest for that particularcalendar month in eight years.However,more re
170、cent pur-chasesandreportsfromtradersindicatedthatarrivalsshouldpick-up given the need to rebuild supplies.Participants also welcomed recent news of Chinas easing ofsome COVID-19-related restrictions,which prompted spec-ulationaboutapotentialupturnindemandforbulkcommodi-ties.Still,average Capesize ea
171、rnings fell by one-third,withongoing demand seen as insufficient to absorb available ton-nage.Panamax rates declined by around one-quarter,with initiallosses tied to lacklustre minerals demand in the Atlantic.Ample vessel supplies in Asia pressured Supramax rates,asdid slow trading at the US Gulf,wh
172、ere cargo movement wasconstrained by complicated river logistics.Handysize ratesalso posted steep losses on reduced enquiry levels in theMediterranean and rising bulker availability in South Americaand Asia.With average bunker prices only slightly softer month-on-month,the 12 percent average monthly
173、 drop in the IGCGrains and Oilseeds Freight Index(GOFI)was chiefly at-tributed to reduced vessel hire prices,notably on routes outof Australia.+iSource:International Grains CouncilBaltic Dry Index(BDI):A benchmark indicator issued daily by the Baltic Exchange,providing assessed costs of moving raw m
174、aterials on ocean going vessels.Comprises sub-Indices for three segments:Capesize,Panamax and Supramax.The Baltic Handysize Index excluded from the BDI from 1 March 2018.IGCGrains and Oilseeds Freight Index(GOFI):A trade-weighted composite measure of ocean freight costs for grains and oilseeds,issue
175、d daily by the InternationalGrains Council.Includes sub-Indices for seven main origins(Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Black Sea,Canada,the EU and the USA).Constructed based on nominalHSS(heavy grains,soybeans,sorghum)voyage rates on selected major routes.Capesize:Vessels with deadweight tonnage(DWT)abov
176、e 80,000 DWT,primarilytransportingcoal,ironoreandotherheavyrawmaterialsonlong-haulroutes.Panamax:Carrierswithcapacityof60,000-80,000DWT,mostlygearedtotransportingcoal,grains,oilseeds and other bulks,including sugar and cement.Supramax/Handysize:Ships with capacity below 60,000 DWT,accounting for the
177、 majority ofthe worlds ocean-going vessels and able to transport a wide variety of cargos,including grains and oilseeds.18AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Explanatory noteThe notions of tightening and easing used in the summary ta-ble of Markets at a glance reflect judgmental views that takein
178、to account market fundamentals,inter-alia price developmentsand short-term trends in demand and supply,especially changesin stocks.All totals(aggregates)are computed from unrounded data.Worldsupply and demand estimates/forecasts are based on the latestdata published by FAO,IGC and USDA.For the forme
179、r,they alsotake into account information provided by AMIS focal points(hencethe notion FAO-AMIS).World estimates and forecasts producedby the three sources may vary due to several reasons,such as vary-ing release dates and different methodologies used in constructingcommodity balances.Specifically:P
180、RODUCTION:Wheat production data from all three sources re-fer to production occurring in the first year of the marketing seasonshown(e.g.crops harvested in 2016 are allocated to the 2016/17marketing season).Maize and rice production data for FAO-AMISrefertocropsharvestedduringthefirstyearofthemarket
181、ingseason(e.g.2016 for the 2016/17 marketing season)in both the northernand southern hemisphere.Rice production data for FAO-AMIS alsoinclude northern hemisphere production from secondary crops har-vested in the second year of the marketing season(e.g.2017 forthe 2016/17 marketing season).By contras
182、t,rice and maize datafor USDA and IGC encompass production in the northern hemi-sphere occurring during the first year of the season(e.g.2016 forthe 2016/17 marketing season),as well as crops harvested in thesouthern hemisphere during the second year of the season(e.g.2017 for the 2016/17 marketing
183、season).For soybeans,the latterapproach is used by all three sources.SUPPLY:Defined as production plus opening stocks by all threesources.UTILIZATION:For all three sources,wheat,maize and rice utiliza-tion includes food,feed and other uses(namely,seeds,industrialuses and post-harvest losses).For soy
184、beans,it comprises crush,food and other uses.However,for all AMIS commodities,the usecategories may be grouped differently across sources and may alsoinclude residual values.TRADE:Data refer to exports.For wheat and maize,trade is re-ported on a July/June basis,except for USDA maize trade esti-mates
185、,which are reported on an October/September basis.Wheattrade data from all three sources includes wheat flour in wheat grainequivalent,while the USDA also considers wheat products.For rice,trade covers shipments from January to December of the secondyear of the respective marketing season.For soybea
186、ns,trade is re-ported on an October/September basis by FAO-AMIS and the IGC,while USDA data are based on local marketing years except for Ar-gentina and Brazil which are reported on an October/Septemberbasis.Trade between European Union member states is excluded.STOCKS:In general,world stocks of AMI
187、S crops refer to the sum ofcarry-overs at the close of each countrys national marketing year.For soybeans,stock levels reported by the USDA are based on lo-cal marketing years,except for Argentina and Brazil,which are ad-justed to October/September.For maize and rice,global estimatesmay vary across
188、sources because of differences in the allocation ofproduction in southern hemisphere countries.For more information on AMIS Supply and Demand,please viewAMIS Supply and Demand Balances Manual.AMIS-GEOGLAM Crop CalendarSelected leading producers*WHEATJFMAMJJASONDChina(18%)springPlantingcHarvestwinter
189、cccHarvestPlantingEU(17%)winterccHarvestPlantingIndia(14%)winterccHarvestPlantingRussian Fed.(12%)springPlantingccHarvestwintercccHarvestPlantingUS(6%)springccHarvestPlantingwinterccHarvestPlantingMAIZEJFMAMJJASONDUS(30%)PlantingcccHarvestChina(24%)northPlantingccHarvestsouthPlantingccHarvestBrazil(
190、10%)1st cropccHarvestPlantingc2nd cropPlantingcccHarvestArgentina(5%)HarvestPlantingccEU(5%)PlantingcccHarvestRICEJFMAMJJASONDChina(28%)intermediary cropPlantingcccHarvestlate cropPlantingccHarvestearly cropPlantingccHarvestIndia(24%)kharifPlantingccHarvestrabicHarvestIndonesia(7%)main JavaccHarvest
191、Plantingsecond JavaPlantingcccHarvestViet Nam(5%)winter-springccHarvestPlantingsummer/autumnPlantingccHarvestwinterPlantingccHarvestThailand(4%)main seasonPlantingcHarvestcsecond seasonPlantingcccHarvestSOYBEANSJFMAMJJASONDBrazil(39%)ccHarvestPlantingcUS(30%)PlantingcccHarvestArgentina(12%)cccHarves
192、tPlantingChina(5%)PlantingccHarvestIndia(3%)PlantingccHarvest*Percentages refer to the global share of production accordingto the latest AMIS-FAO estimates available for the most recent seasonPlanting(peak)Harvest(peak)PlantingHarvestcWeather conditions in thisperiod are critical for yieldsGrowing p
193、eriodFor more information on AMIS Supply andDemand,please view AMIS Supply and De-mand Balance ManualMain sourcesBloomberg,CFTC,CME Group,FAO,GEOGLAM,IFPRI,IGC,OECD,Reuters,USDA,US Federal Reserve,WTO2023 AMIS Market Monitor release datesFebruary 2,March 2,April 6,May 4,June 1,July6,September 7,October 5,November 2,December 7Contacts and SubscriptionsAMIS Secretariat Email:AMIS-Secretariatfao.orgDownload the AMIS Market Monitor or sign up for a freee-mail suscription at:www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring