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1、5 trends for 2023Embracing chaos,taking chargeIBM Institute for Business Value|Research Brief2IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disruptedThe chaos of the 2020s has pushed leaders to act quickly and decisively.It has accelerated innovation
2、and forced organizations to transform in ways that didnt previously seem possible.And those that didnt adapt have now fallen behind.1 In 2023,rapid response is the new baseline.Uncertainty is expected and complexity is compounding.As threats materialize on multiple fronts,organizations must reduce t
3、he time from insight to action.Leaders need precise intelligence to dodge obstacles as they appearand obstacles will be legion.To prepare,executives must try to predict the future.Is a global recession around the corner?Will extreme weather events continue to wreak widespread havoc?Will geopolitical
4、 conflicts coolor will battles move to entirely new fronts?How and where threats appear,as well as where they overlap,will have far-reaching implications for global businesses.Deliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate cust
5、omer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsAs disruption drives change on virtually every front,leaders have to keep thei
6、r heads up.For example,its unclear how long the war in Ukraine will continue to disrupt supply chains,talent pools,and business operations.But as organizations grapple with the consequences,they must also navigate increasing cost pressures caused by inflation.In October 2022,the International Moneta
7、ry Fund(IMF)forecast that global inflation would peak at 9.5%in the third quarter of 2022and some economists fear that price surges could have staying power.2 At the same time,companies are striving to achieve aggressive sustain-ability targets that require collaboration across aisles and ecosystems
8、.In 2022,global CEOs named sustainability as the top challenge their organizations are expected to face over the next two to three yearsrising from sixth place in 2021.3 Plus,purpose-driven consumers,who prioritize products and brands that align with their values,now represent the largest shopper se
9、gment(44%).4As disruption drives change on virtually every front,leaders have to keep their heads up.They must respond to threats strategically and pick their battles wisely.To help executives set the right priorities,the IBM Institute for Business Value(IBV)has identified five key trends that we be
10、lieve will influence the business landscape in 2023and the top opportunities that can help organizations forge ahead in the face of volatility.3IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeTalent shortages and salary pressures cripple growthHiring managers have thei
11、r work cut out for them in 2023.Employers worldwide are struggling to fill open positions,with 85 million jobs expected to go unfilled by 2030.Korn Ferry estimates that this labor shortfall could translate to roughly$8.5 trillion in unrealized annual revenues in the same timeframe.5In September 2022
12、,there were 10.7 million job openings in the USnearly twice the number of Americans seeking work.6 Job vacancy rates have more than doubled since 2020 in both the EU area and Singapore,and theyve increased 41%in Australia year-over-year.7 This broad inability to fill roles is limiting growth opportu
13、nities and intensifying the effects of inflation.8The skills shortage is also driving up salary demands as talent investments stagnate.IBV research found a 56%likelihood that employees would say salary was more important than any other employee engagement factor in 2022.9 And 38%of Chief Supply Chai
14、n Officers(CSCOs)say wage inflation has caused significantsupplychain disruptions in the past two years.10 However,2023 US salary budgets are expected to increase by just 4%roughly half the 2022 rate of inflation.11 Flexibility is also a top priority for 2023,as more than one in three(35%)employees
15、say they would not apply for a job that doesnt offer the ability to work remotely at least part-time(see Figure 1).12 Two-thirds want to partner with employers to define their work arrangements Yet,77%of companies that currently offer hybrid work arrangements plan to change their policies in 2023.40
16、%said they will require employees to work from an office four days a week and 13%plan to bring employees back full-time.13 As worker needs shiftand many organizations resist changeemployee loyalty is also diminishing.In the US,employee engagement dropped to 61%in 2022,continuing the downward trend s
17、een in 2021.14 Globally,IBV research found that 69%of employees said the work they do is more important than the employer they work for and roughly half(52%)worked for their last employer only four years or less.15Source:IBM Institute for Business Value Global Survey of 16,349 employees,March 2022.1
18、Deliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are ex
19、panding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsFIGURE 1Remote controlFlexibility is a top priority for talent in 2023.35%of employees say they would not apply for a job that doesnt offer the ability to work remotely at least part-time.5010004IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing
20、 chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberat
21、tack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsClose the talent gapTo attract the right people and enable profitable growth,employers must find a way to meet evolving employee demandswithout breaking the bank.Here are three ways companies can reshape their talent strategies to sta
22、nd out from the competition in 2023.Personalize hybrid work.Partner with employees to design and define hybrid work models that accommodate unique needs.Allow individuals to customize arrangements and adopt technology that enables secure remote work.Expand your reach and mine for“hidden talent.”Shar
23、e skills and resources with ecosystem partners and outsource workstreams that partners can manage more efficiently.Mine internal operational and employee data to discover untapped skills and talent in your existing workforce.Search for talent with the right skills rather than the right degree.Innova
24、te to create value for employees.While organizations cant always increase pay,they can help employees improve their quality of life and save time and money in a variety of ways.Explore avenues to reduce employee expenses,such as offering personalized work arrangements,to reduce childcare and commuti
25、ng costs.2315IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilienc
26、e4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsPrivacy and personalization complicate customer relationshipsSource:“Consumers want it all,”IBM Institute for Business Value,February 2022.2The futuristic visions
27、 of innovators rarely translate to reality wholesale.They get some things right,but how technology changes our lives is decided by the crowd.The failure of Google Glass is a case in point.16 While smart glasses have been a sci-fi staple since the 1980s,a unique combination of privacy and aesthetic c
28、oncerns stymied Googles attempt to make this vision a reality.And nearly a decade later,companies are still struggling to hit the mark.But theres a lot to gain by getting immersive technology right.The roughly$40 billion metaverse market is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 39%between 20
29、22 and 2030.17 To make the most of this opportunity,organizations need to offer cutting-edge experiences that capture the imagination and build lasting customer relationships by successfully addressing safety and privacy concerns.Security is critical as the customer experience becomes more immersive
30、 and shopping activities extend across different digital platforms.In 2022,Cisco found that 43%of consumers say they are unable to protect their personal datawith a lack of data transparency being the top cause.Four in five of these individuals say they cant figure out what companies are doing with
31、their data.Overall,37%of consumers have switched brands to protect their privacy.That number jumps to 68%in India,43%in China,and 47%in Mexico.18Leaders also need to be able to distinguish between a passing fad and the next big thing.Making smart bets that can drive sustainable growth starts with un
32、derstanding what consumers want from the products they buy and the brands they support.For example,customers want their shopping and purchasing experiences to flow seamlessly between physical and digital spaces.Hybrid shopping,where people use both digital and physical channels,is now the fastest gr
33、owing shopping method,and its the primary shopping method for more than one in four(27%)global consumers,according to IBV research.That number jumps to 37%for Gen Z and 38%for Millennialsand will likely continue to rise (see Figure 2).19FIGURE 2The future is hybridMore than 1 in 3 younger consumers
34、prefer to shop using both physical and digital channels.38%37%27%All consumersMillennialsGen ZsHybrid shopping is their primary method of buying6IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple gro
35、wth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsWin over the crowdCompanies ne
36、ed to prioritize digital-first products and immersive customer experiences to outpace the competitionbut leaders must understand consumer priorities to make the right investments.Here are three ways leaders can boost demand for their brand in 2023.Draw deliberate distinctions between customer segmen
37、ts.Differentiate between customers focused on purpose,price,and performance,and explicitly target those that best align with the companys offerings and values.Roll out offerings that give these consumers more of what they want most.Deploy AI and automation to drive efficiency and deliver rapid,data-
38、driven insights at scale.Offer experiences that are both unique and intuitive.Cut through the noise by offering easy-to-use features that enrich the customer journey.Identify and prioritize the technical capabilities necessary to support and orchestrate an immersive,connected,and secure customer exp
39、erience.Earn customers trust.Anticipate and embrace a world where customers take greater ownership over their data.Recognize that people face a tradeoff between privacy and person-alization,and theyll seek companies that help them strike the right balance.Clearly define a strategy for data security,
40、privacy,and recovery,and let customers opt out of sharing personal information.2317IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeA confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilienceSource:“The resilient digital supply chain,”IBM Institute for Business Va
41、lue and Celonis,April 2022.Deliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.
42、Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsFIGURE 3Smarter resilience Companies are automating growing business ecosystems.CSCOs expect to integrate32%of their intelligent workflows with ecosystem partners by 2030.3What does it take to weather a storm that seems like it
43、 will never end?Flexibility,ingenuity,and a wide-reaching partner network.Companies leaned on these capabilities heavily in 2022,as geopolitical conflicts,labor shortages,and natural disasters created scarcity across sectors.Businesses had to get creative to secure access to products and materialsfr
44、om semiconductors to medications to milkthat were in perpetual short supply.In 2023,leaders expect supply chain breakdowns to continue to threaten business continuity.IBV research revealed that,in the next two to three years,global CSCOs say they expect macroeconomic and environmental factors to be
45、the top external forces impacting their organizations.20Natural disasters,for instance,have forced leaders to rethink their supply chain models.The US alone has seen an average of 19 billion-dollar disasters per year for the past three years,up from an average of roughly three per year in the 1980s.
46、21 These extreme weather events can wipe out key links in supply chains,potentially crippling the companies that rely on them.The same holds true for geopolitical disruption.In 2022,the war in Ukraine pushed companies around the world to reconsider their partner ecosystems.One in three CSCOs say the
47、yve started working with suppliers in new countries orregionsover the last three yearsand we expect that number to continue to rise.22 They plan to automate these growing business ecosystems,as well.Overall,CSCOs expect to integrate 32%of their intelligent workflows with ecosystem partners by 2030(s
48、ee Figure 3).23Many business leaders are also reshaping their supply chains to mitigate the growing threat of climate change.Nearly 50%of CSCOs anticipate sustainability initiatives will substantially change theirsupplychainmodels over the next two to three years.24 Across the C-suite,38%of executiv
49、es expect to change suppliers and vendors based on their sustainability profiles,and 32%plan to transform sourcing practices toward low emissions,pollution,and waste in the next three years.25 8IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.
50、Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart
51、with the essentialsBuild a change-ready supply chainCompanies are focused on increasing agility and resilience as they navigate a perfect storm of threatsbut added pressures also present promising opportunities.Here are three ways leaders can position their supply chains for success in 2023.Gain fas
52、ter insights with intelligent workflows.Automation can introduce greater predictability,flexibility,and insights into operations and decision-making.Integrating AI can also help organizations monitor quality,track performance,and generate more accurate forecasts in almost real time.Design for busine
53、ss continuity.Technologies such as 3D printing,intelligent robotics,and open source hardware can give leaders more control.They can infuse resiliency into the supply chain and help organizations adapt faster to changeif they have talent with the right skills in place.Adopt sustainable supply chain m
54、odels.Articulate simple,transparent metrics and collaborate across business ecosystems to define common standards and terminology.Work with partners to track and report progress for consumers,board members,and investors.2319IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking cha
55、rgeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are
56、 expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsSustainability strategies must be impactfuland realistic Businesses need to make big strides to hit new sustainability targets in 2023.As more stringent regulations come into effect,organizations will need to measure their environmental impact clearly
57、 and accurately to manage compliance.The EUs new Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive(CSRD)will require 50,000 companies to disclose more detailed information about their environmental footprint,and its rules will take effect between 2024 and 2028.26 Mandatory reporting for the Task Force on
58、 Climate-Related Financial Disclosures(TFCD)in the UK and the Security Exchange Commission(SEC)in the US will add to compliance complexity.Stakeholders will also continue to demand that leaders set targets that stretch beyond the minimum requirements.As companies map out wide-reaching plans to achie
59、ve net-zero emissions and other ambitious goals,roughly half of CEOs say they feel direct pressure from ecosystem partners,board members,and investors to improve sustainability outcomes.27 However,the good environmental intentions of many organizations have yet to be realized.In a recent IBV survey
60、covering manufacturing-oriented industries,86%of executives said their organizations have a sustainability strategy in place,but only 35%had acted on that strategy(see Figure 4).Only one in three had integrated sustainability objectives and metrics into business processes.28 Likewise,CEOs cited uncl
61、ear ROI and economic benefits(57%)and a lack of insights from data(44%)as their greatest challenges to achieving their sustainability objectives.29 As sustainability becomes a central component of transformation efforts,leaders will need mature tech to help them track and advance their strategic pri
62、orities.In fact,42%of CIOs say sustainability is an area within their organization where technology can have the biggest impact over the next three years.30 And transformation trailblazersorganizations that have success-fully integrated sustainability into their digital transformationhave seen their
63、 revenues grow faster than their peers.31 Source:“Sustainability as a transformation catalyst,”IBM Institute for Business Value,January 2022.FIGURE 4More talk than actionFew organizations have taken steps to realize sustainability goals.86%of executives said their organizations have a sustainability
64、 strategy in place,but only 35%had acted on that strategy.4Consumers are willing to reward companies that make meaningful progress,as well.Recent IBV research found that roughly half(49%)of consumers globally say they paid an average premium of 59%for products branded as sustainable or socially resp
65、onsible as part of their last purchase.Even 4 out of 10(43%)consumers in the lower income bracket say theyve paid this type of premium.32 Purpose-driven consumers are also great brand ambassadors.58%have recently introduced friends and family to a new brand or retailer.3310IBM Institute for Business
66、 Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be
67、impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsMake a meaningful impactAs the atmosphere warms,plastics proliferate,and extinctions eliminate more species each year,leaders must look beyond emissions reduction and think more holistically about the
68、organizations overall impact on the environment.Here are three ways companies can create strategies to preserve the planetand boost the bottom linein 2023.Make sustainability central to business strategy.Stakeholders are looking for less talk and more action.Use operational structures,including comp
69、ensation packages,enterprise change management programs,and active employee engagement initiatives to encourage transformation.Work with ecosystem partners and suppliers to adopt sustainable practices.Communicate clear sustainability goals.Define an actionable message with detailed priorities to dep
70、ict the enterprise-wide transformation potential of sustainability.Consistently broadcast that message to leadership,stakeholders,partners,and consumers.Align objectives with ecosystem partners and across silos to identify opportunities and resolve issues more effectively.Find ways to drive profitab
71、ility through sustainability.Digital transformation and sustainability transformation should complement each other.Define sustainability measures and use data,technology,and standardized metrics to advance sustainability goals through daily operations.Increase visibility to manage costs and environm
72、ental impact in tandem.23111IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands cont
73、inued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsCyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyEncryption codes,which are very difficult to crack,serve as the backbone of the cyber economy.But w
74、hat would happen if that backbone were broken?By 2030,quantum computers could be capable of cracking public security protections.And it may take between 5 and 10 years to replace most current public key systems.34 To limit their risk exposure,companies need to explore new approaches to cybersecurity
75、.Yet,they must also focus their resources on the imminent threats they face today.Data breaches are now more expensive and impactful than ever.The average cost of a data breach in the United States in 2022 was$9.44 million,which is more than double the global average of$4.35 million.And highly regul
76、ated industries incur nearly one-quarter(24%)of breach costs more than two years after the incident.35A proliferation of connected devices and services has also expanded attack surfaces.Experts predict the number of active Internet of Things(IoT)devices will grow to 14.4 billion by the end of 2022,r
77、eflecting an 18%year-over-year growth rate.36 The number of vulnerabil-ities related to IoT devices grew 16%in 2022 alone,compared to a growth rate of only 0.4%for all vulnerabilities.37The risks posed by security gaps and new attack vectors are being compounded by a cyber skills shortage.Globally,o
78、rganizations faced a cybersecurity workforce gap of 3.4 million people in 2022.38 More than half(54%)of executives say a lack of talent is one of the greatest obstacles to their organizations cyber resilience.39 Security AI and automation can address both capacity and specialization challenges.40Yet
79、,the future of cybersecurity isnt all about risk mitigation.While evolving technology opens the door to a variety of new threats,it also paves new avenues for growth.In fact,two in three executives now view cybersecurity primarily as a revenue enabler,rather than a cost center (see Figure 5).41Sourc
80、e:“Prosper in the cyber economy,”IBM Institute for Business Value,November 2022.FIGURE 5Flip the equationLeaders are shifting their perspective on cybersecurity.2 in 3executives view cybersecurity primarily as a revenue enabler,rather than a cost center.512IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends fo
81、r 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A confluence of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and rea
82、listic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsRaise the shieldsTo protect their organizations from evolving threats while also positioning them for growth,leaders need to take a more proactive approach to cybersecurity.Here are three ways organizations can think d
83、ifferently to improve their cyber resilience in 2023.Prepare for complex cyber risks.Integrate cybersecurity across internal silos and the broader ecosystem.Consider working with a partner to share responsibility for security program governance by emphasizing shared value and collective resilience.E
84、nhance cybersecurity with AI and automation.Leverage AI technologies in security operations to optimize cost-performance improvements.The combination of AI and automation can improve incident discovery and response times by enabling better security controls and improving threat detection and respons
85、e performance.Invest in and equip your cyber workforce.Recognize and nurture your cybersecurity workforce as a highly valuable asset.Stimulate skills development by creating opportunities for growth.Use AI and automation so cybersecurity analysts can shift their focus to what really matters:addressi
86、ng more complex problems that require human judgement to solve.23113IBM Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeDeliberation is disrupted1.Talent shortages and salary pressures cripple growth2.Privacy and personalization complicate customer relationships3.A conflue
87、nce of supply chain threats demands continued resilience4.Sustainability strategies should be impactful and realistic 5.Cyberattack surfaces are expanding exponentiallyStart with the essentialsStart with the essentialsDisentangling complexities can confound even the most skilled and savvy executives
88、.With so much in disarray,it can be difficult for leaders to decide where to begin.Prioritize the work that best aligns with business strategyand will deliver measurable results.Invest in the skills and capabilities that are central to achieving key objectives and engage with partners that can offer
89、 support in key areas.Its also time to re-evaluate the organizations changing sense of mission and make sure everyone agrees on what matters most.Focus on what can be controlledand take confident and purposeful strides forward.In an uncertain environment,success is based on dynamic factors,such as c
90、ollaboration,innovation,and adaptability.This requires turning insights into outcomes,convictions into capabilities,and chaos into control.In 2023,successful leaders will use a combination of technology and human ingenuity to seize the opportunities ahead.IBM Institute for Business ValueThe IBM Inst
91、itute for Business Value(IBV)delivers trusted,technology-based business insights by combining expertise from industry thinkers,leading academics,and subject matter experts with global research and performance data.The IBV thought leadership portfolio includes research deep dives,benchmarking and per
92、formance comparisons,and data visualizations that support business decision making across regions,industries,and technologies.For more informationFollow IBMIBV on Twitter,and to receive the latest insights by email,visit Institute for Business Value5 trends for 2023:Embracing chaos,taking chargeNote
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105、 22 Bounds,Matthew and Bob Murphy.“Smart procurement made smarter:Five ways digital intelligence drives value.”IBM Institute for Business Value.September 2022.https:/ibm.co/smart-procurement Copyright IBM Corporation 2022IBM Corporation New Orchard Road Armonk,NY 10504Produced in the United States o
106、f America|December 2022IBM,the IBM logo, and Watson are trademarks of International Business Machines Corp.,registered in many jurisdictions worldwide.Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other companies.A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the web at“Copyright a
107、nd trademark information”at: document is current as of the initial date of publication and may be changed by IBM at any time.Not all offerings are available in every country in which IBM operates.THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED“AS IS”WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY,EXPRESS OR IMPLIED,INCLUDING WIT
108、HOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF NON-INFRINGEMENT.IBM products are warranted according to the terms and conditions of the agreements under which they are provided.This report is intended for general guidance only.It is not inten
109、ded to be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional judgment.IBM shall not be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any organization or person who relies on this publication.The data used in this report may be derived from third-party sources and IBM does not inde
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