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1、GLOBALReal AssetsReportQ320222Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTContentsPitchBook Data,Inc.John Gabbert Founder,CEONizar Tarhuni Senior Director,Institutional Research&EditorialDylan Cox,CFA Head of Private Markets ResearchInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisDataTJ Mei Data APublishingReport designed
2、 by Drew SandersPublished on December 12,2022Click here for PitchBooks report methodologies.Click here for PitchBooks private market glossary.Anikka Villegas Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable IJuliet Clemens Analyst,Fund SOverview3Infrastructure11Oil&gas181-year3-year5-year10-year15-year20-yearRea
3、l assets22.0%8.2%8.1%7.1%7.2%7.8%Infrastructure16.7%10.6%10.7%10.3%8.9%9.1%Oil&gas42.2%5.0%4.8%3.3%5.3%6.5%Other9.7%3.0%2.9%3.3%3.5%3.6%Real assets horizon IRRs*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022The accompanying Excel file contains additional charts and all underlying data for thi
4、s report.Download the XLS summary here.Note:This report includes real assets debt in the real assets fundraising and performance data,unlike other reports such as the Global Private Market Fundraising Report and the Global Fund Performance Report,in which private debt has its own section.As such,tot
5、als may differ from other recent reports.3Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOVERVIEWOverview$60.1$82.2$119.2$150.8$99.1$108.4$138.0$130.6$123.9$143.0$99.30222000022*Capital raised($B)Fund countReal assets fundraising activitySource:Pit
6、chBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,202220000212022*%of funds larger than predecessorStep-up64.9%65.2%72.1%64.8%61.7%64.4%62.9%58.5%56.5%72.3%87.5%42.9%43.5%44.3%38.6%25.0%48.5%37.2%30.3%11.6%66.7%87.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Median step-up from previous
7、real assets fund in fund familySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Anikka Villegas Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable InvestingIn the midst of a worsening inflationary environment,escalating interest rates from national banks,and an otherwise complex macroeconomic backdrop,real
8、 assets fundraising was robust in the first two quarters of 2022,but slowed in Q3.Still,this nearly puts just the YTD total in line with averages of the past decade,with three months remaining in the year at time of data pull.In the first three quarters of the year,real assets vehicles garnered$99.3
9、 billion in commitments,only$11.2 billion of which was raised in Q3.While Q3s numbers may drift upward as more funds raised are captured for the quarter,this activity still signifies a slowdown compared with previous quarters.LPs are feeling a pinch due to the macroeconomic headwinds of 2022,receivi
10、ng fewer distributions and experiencing the“denominator effect”;as such,they are slowing commitments throughout the private markets.The number of vehicles closed in 2022 will likely be in line with lows of the past decade,as the asset class raised only 67 funds in the first three quarters of the yea
11、r compared with an average of 190 in the previous 10 years.4Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOVERVIEWLarge amounts of committed capital among fewer funds mean large fund sizes.After a pandemic-induced dip,step-ups were higher than ever,at 66.7%for funds that closed in 2021.1 At present,66.8%of 2022s
12、 raised capital went to vehicles in the size bucket of$5 billion or more,and another 21.3%was committed to vehicles in the$1 billion to$5 billion bucket.Given this fact and the economic uncertainty of 2022,smaller,lesser-known funds received a smaller share of commitments as allocators found comfort
13、 in their existing managers with more established practices.First-time fundraising in 2022 has been decidedly lethargic,with only nine funds and$2.1 billion raised compared with a 10-year average of$12.1 billion raised across roughly 38 funds.Larger funds also may be partially responsible for the in
14、creased time to close for real assets funds.The median time to close climbed from 13.5 months in 2012 to 18.5 in 2017 and 19.6 as of Q3 2022,while median fund size rose from$214.0 million in 2012 to$277.3 million in 2017 and$495.1 million as of Q3 2022.Geographically,North American vehicles are also
15、 responsible for the bulk of capital raised,with 76.1%of commitments coming from that geography in the year through Q3 2022.The region is on track to raise more capital this year than any other geography on record.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20000212022*$5B+$1B-
16、$5B$500M-$1B$250M-$500M$100M-$250MUnder$100M050000212022*Top quartileMedianBottom quartileAverageShare of real assets fund capital raised by size bucketTime(months)to close real assets funds dispersionSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20
17、22Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20221:The Q3 2022 step-up is 87.7%,although this number is substantially inflated by the fact that our data capture process registers larger funds more quickly as we hear about them earlier.As such,the 2021 number is more reliable for analysis p
18、urposes.$7.7$7.3$22.3$17.2$14.5$14.3$6.1$2.9$12.3$15.9$2.284027332000202021 2022*Capital raised($B)Fund countReal assets first-time fundraising activitySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20225Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOVERVIEWInfra
19、structure funds accounted for 96.0%of capital raised in the first three quarters of 2022,with oil&gas making up 2.4%and funds in the“other”categorywhich includes timber,real assets&natural resources,metals&mining,and agriculturecoming in at 1.6%.Infrastructure vehicles also dominate the list of top
20、funds to close by size,and as such,discussion of these will be located within the infrastructure section of this report.While infrastructures massive fund sizes are partially responsible for this split,fund counts also show infrastructure as the clear and overwhelming fundraising leader in the asset
21、 class,with its steadfast track record of performance even more attractive in the face of a potential recession.As of Q3 2022,45 infrastructure funds had been raised;seven funds were raised in oil&gas and 15 in the“other”category.In oil&gas,the short-term boon of the energy crisis has not sufficient
22、ly assuaged investor fears around the long-term prospects of the space to reinvigorate fundraising.For funds in the“other”category,there are many nuanced and idiosyncratic fundraising drivers,but prolonged supply chain difficulties,labor shortages,and decreased consumer spending resulting in an anti
23、cipated cooldown period for production are all features impacting the immediate attractiveness of the space.20000212022*Top quartileMedianBottom quartileAverage$0$400$800$1,200$1,600$2,000Real assets fund capital raised($M)dispersionSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*
24、As of September 30,2022InfrastructureOil&gasOther0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20000212022*Share of real assets capital raised by typeSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$2000202021202
25、2*NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaRest ofworldReal assets capital raised($B)by regionSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20226Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOVERVIEWTaking a closer look at fundraising in the“other”bucket,with only$1.6 billion raised by 15 funds as of Q3,2022 is shaping up t
26、o be a slow year for commitments.Over the past decade,this category has averaged$8.8 billion across 35 vehicles in annual fundraising.At this rate,2022 will likely be the slowest fundraising year in the past 11 due to fewer and smaller funds being raised.Within this category,metals&mining and real a
27、ssets&natural resources have raised the most capital,with$1.0 billion across two funds and$572.0 million across four funds,respectively.Despite this,neither are tracking to meet historical fundraising averages.Agriculture,which has historically averaged more commitments than any other subcategory in
28、 the“other”bucket,will likely experience its lowest fundraising year in the past decade,with just one fund raised thus far.Timber,on the other hand,has raised eight funds with undisclosed sizes,which dont factor in to our committed capital numbers but do show up in our fund counts.Similar to most ot
29、her years,geographically,the majority of funds in the“other”category were raised in North America.InfrastructureOil&gasOther0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20000212022*Share of real assets fund count by typeSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022$1
30、1.9$7.8$11.0$9.5$5.6$7.2$13.7$8.3$3.8$9.7$1.646334934332934342833000202021 2022*Capital raised($B)Fund count“Other”fundraising activitySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$5B+$1B-$5B$500M-$1B$250M-$500M$100M-$250MUnder$100M2012
31、2000022*“Other”capital raised($B)by size bucketSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20227Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOVERVIEW$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14TimberReal assets&natural resourcesMetals&miningAgriculture2000021202
32、2*TimberReal assets&natural resourcesMetals&miningAgriculture20000212022*01020304050“Other”capital raised($B)by type“Other”fund count by typeSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Sprott Priva
33、te Resource Streaming and Royalty,a$701.0 million Canada-based metals&mining fund raised in the beginning of the year,was the largest fund to close in the“other”category this year.It provides structured financing solutions to mining companies globally and across a diversified set of commodities.2 Th
34、e second largest was Synergy Metals and Mining I,which operates in the same category but was raised in Dubai,at$315.0 million.Thus far,it has made nine investments across steel,auto components,mining,and power.3 The next-three-largest funds were real assets&natural resources funds coming out of Texa
35、s:Spicewood Mineral Partners at$250.0 million,NHRP Logos at$195.1 million,and North Hudson Production Partners at$127.0 million.While the Spicewood fund focuses on opportunistically buying various off-market minerals in US basins,the NHRP Logos and North Hudson Production Partners funds are focused
36、more on oil and natural gas production in the US.4,5FundInvestorFund size($M)Close date(2022)Fund typeLocationSprott Private Resource Streaming and RoyaltySprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust$701.0January 27Metals&miningToronto,CASynergy Metals and Mining ISynergy Capital$315.0February 15Metals&min
37、ingDubai,UAESpicewood Mineral PartnersSpicewood Mineral Partners$250.0June 6Real assets&natural resourcesDallas,USNHRP LogosNorth Hudson Resource Partners$195.1May 10Real assets&natural resourcesHouston,USNorth Hudson Production PartnersNorth Hudson Resource Partners$127.0February 3Real assets&natur
38、al resourcesHouston,USTop five“other”funds to close in 2022*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20222:“Sprott Private Resource Streaming and Royalty Fund Completes Final Closing,”Globe Newswire,Sprott Inc.,January 27,2022.3:“Synergy Fund,”Synergy Capital,n.d.,accessed November 15,20
39、22.4:“Spicewood Mineral Partners Closes on Initial Fund Totaling$250 Million in Capital Commitments,”Business Wire,Spicewood Mineral Partners,June 6,2022.5:“North Hudson Resource Partners Acquires LOGOS Resources,”Cision PR Newswire,North Hudson Resource Partners,June 2,2022.8Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASS
40、ETS REPORTOVERVIEWIn terms of performance,while our private market return data is delayed compared with that of the public markets,we do know that overall rolling one-year real assets performance continued to gradually improve through Q1 2022,notching its post-Global Financial Crisis(GFC)zenith of a
41、 22.0%one-year horizon IRR.Beneath this aggregate metric,infrastructure,oil&gas,and other real assets funds experienced very different headwinds and tailwinds,and,as a result,performance.Infrastructure hit a post-GFC high,with a 16.7%return.Inflation puts both upward and downward pressure on infrast
42、ructure returns,weighing out such that the asset class is widely considered an inflation hedge,especially as some types of infrastructure benefit from inflation once an asset has been acquired.In addition,for older projects using long-term financing with fixed rates,counter-inflationary policies are
43、 not yet dampening returns as much as in other asset classes such as PE and VC.The FTSE Nareit Infrastructure index may offer some clues around the direction of future performancealthough it experienced a few drops in 2022,it is up from 2017.Given this and other tailwinds,the outlook is positive for
44、 infrastructure through the rest of the year.Oil&gas returns,which are heavily correlated with oil&gas prices,remained aloft but appeared to be normalizing slightly,at 42.2%after a high of 45.9%in Q4 2021.Still,given that prices have remained elevated later in the year,the trend of strong performanc
45、e will likely continue.The S&P GSCI Energy Index spiked to a high in June 2022 and has been decreasing since,but it is still significantly up from 2017,influenced predominantly by the EU energy crisis and resulting global energy price impacts.Oil&gas funds from vintages that are likely mostly invest
46、ed,typically those older than five years,have benefited from the sustained high energy prices this year,but ones with dry powder are buying into a potential top.As such,it will be interesting to watch performance metrics as oil&gas funds with more recent vintages put their capital to work in the com
47、ing years.-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2000182019 2020 2021 2022*Real assetsInfrastructureOil&gasOther real assetsReal assets rolling one-year horizon IRRs by strategySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022-100%-50%0%50%100%150%DecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJu
48、nSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepAlerian Midstream EnergyAlerian Natural GasFTSE Nareit Data CentersFTSE Nareit TimberFTSE Nareit Infrastructure2022*202182017Returns for select real assets indexes by sectorSource:Morningstar|Geography:Global*As of September 30,20229Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS R
49、EPORTOVERVIEWThe one-year IRR for funds in the“other”category as of Q1 2022 was much more modest,at 9.7%.Nonetheless,this return was in line with highs of the past five years and much higher than the five-year and 10-year IRRs of 2.9%and 3.3%,respectively.Spot prices and producer price index data of
50、fer additional insight into the asset class past and future performance.Across a variety of commodities,there was a stark increase in spot prices for most commodities from November 2021 through March 2022.Iron&steel,aluminum,gold,and copper were on a clear downward trajectory from March through Sept
51、ember,although all but aluminum are still up to some extent from 2017.For many of these metals,demand is tied to construction,aerospace,transportation,and engineering activity.With the housing market cooling in 2022 and recessionary fears making corporate decision-making more conservative,this kind
52、of behavior from spot prices throughout the year makes sense.Plus,precious and industrial metals are both negatively impacted by the strength of the dollar,which puts downward pressure on prices because it makes commodities relatively more expensive.Heightened inflation rates,which make trading meta
53、ls costlier for those who trade with borrowed money,thereby reducing demand,creates the same effect.60%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%1-year3-year5-year10-year15-year18-year20-yearReal assetsInfrastructureOil&gasOtherDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSep202182017-80%-60%
54、-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Brent Crude(Spot)Lumber(PPI)Iron and Steel(Spot)Iron Ore Mining(PPI)Aluminum(Spot)Gold(Spot)Copper(Spot)Coal(PPI)2022*Real assets horizon IRRs by type*Price changes for select commodities(rebased to 2017)Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Source:FRED|G
55、eography:Global*As of September 30,20226:“Whats Driving Prices Down in the Metals Market?”NPR,Adrian Ma,July 22,2022.10Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOVERVIEWDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSep2022*202182017-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%S&P 500 EnergyS&P GSCIGSC
56、I EnergyGSCI AgricultureGSCI Precious MetalsGSCI Industrial MetalsGSCI LivestockPrice changes for select commodity indexes(rebased to 2017)Source:Morningstar|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022We also utilize producer price indexes(PPIs)to track coal,iron ore,and lumber.Coals PPI was down from
57、2017 until January 2022,when it began an aggressive climb that continued through July 2022 and held fairly steady through September.The EU experienced some energy supply issues beginning in 2021,and with the energy crisis in full swing midway through the year,coal experienced a prolonged surge in de
58、mand.7 Iron ore experienced a sharp increase in May 2022 and sustained a five-year high through September.Lumbers PPI was quite volatile from Q2 2020 through Q3 2022,hitting two extreme highs in May 2021 and March 2022 but plummeting to more normal levels in-between.It is still up from 2017 as of Se
59、ptember 2022 but is subject to the same construction-related demand dynamics as other building materials.8 While not a producer price index,the GSCI Agriculture Index is also at a high,and seemingly increasing as of September 2022,despite supply chain bottlenecks and increased costs of production.Wi
60、th such a combination of diverse asset types falling into the“other”bucket,is difficult to say how performance numbers will play out in the rest of the year.7:“Global Coal Production To Grow by a Marginal 0.9%in 2022,”Mining Technology,Elli Karampela,September 13,2022.8:“Lumber Prices Plunge 12%To N
61、ew 2022 Lows as Wood Inventories Start to Pile Up,”Insider,Matthew Fox,June 1,2022.11Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTUREInfrastructure20000212022*Capital raised($B)Fund count$31.9$42.0$83.1$97.4$77.4$80.9$106.0$106.8$107.7$130.7$95.477966133101
62、1379545Infrastructure fundraising activitySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$20002020212022*$5B+$1B-$5B$500M-$1B$250M-$500M$100M-$250MUnder$100MInfrastructure capital raised($B)by size bucketSource:PitchBook|Geography:Glob
63、al*As of September 30,2022Anikka Villegas Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable InvestingInfrastructure is sometimes regarded as a haven for investors in times of volatility,inflation,and recession,with its ability to continue providing moderate but consistent returns seen as far more valuable in the
64、face of macroeconomic uncertainty.Despite this,infrastructure still experiences some of the headwinds associated with those challenges,as not all strategies are equally well-equipped to surmount them.In Q3 2022,infrastructure fundraising was slowing from the feverish tempo of previous quarters.In Q1
65、,$47.1 billion was raised across 21 vehicles;in Q2,$37.3 billion was raised among 11 vehicles;and in Q3,$10.9 billion was raised among 13.While Q2 and Q3s fund counts will continue growing as we receive more information around the closing of smaller funds in those quarters,it is likely the quarter-t
66、o-quarter drop in commitments will remain.Despite this,robust activity in the first half of the year means that infrastructure funds will likely see a year-end raised capital metric in line with historical averages.99:In addition,our fund and commitment counts do not include open-ended funds or thos
67、e not in traditional PE-style structures,of which there are several with noteworthy AUM,including Blackstones Infrastructure Partners(BIP)Fund,with$25.8 billion in assets as of September 30,2022.12Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTUREAs large fund sizes are necessary to complete capital-in
68、tensive infrastructure projects,the asset class already tends toward experienced managers,as emerging managers have a difficult time raising a fund large enough to be relevant in the space.Thus far,the years strong fundraising numbers have been driven by increasingly massive funds,namely in the fund
69、 size bucket of$5 billion or more.These,predictably,are raised by large,seasoned fund managers with an abundance of resources at their fingertips.While one of the top five funds of the year was a first-time fund,it was raised by Brookfield,a well-known,highly regarded,and extremely experienced manag
70、er.Even though as of Q3 2022,infrastructure had seen only five mega-fundsfewer than in 2021 and 2019the amount of money in mega-funds was higher.At the close of Q3,$66.3 billion had closed in funds sized$5 billion or more;for 2019 and 2021,these numbers were$57.6 billion and$55.3 billion,respectivel
71、y.With such large funds,we may see infrastructure take-private activity intensify as private infrastructure fund investors swoop in to take advantage of relatively cheaper assets in the wake of the public market downturns of 2022.Several enormous take-privates took place in 2021 and 2022,making this
72、 strategy a more well-trodden path for GPs looking to put large sums of dry powder to work.10 Certainly,there is capital waiting to be deployedinfrastructure dry powder was still high at the close of Q3 2022,at$287.6 billion,and sitting predominantly in recent vintages.At the quarters close,59.8%of
73、dry powder 20000212022*$5B+$1B-$5B$500M-$1B$250M-$500M$100M-$250MUnder$100M020406080100120140Infrastructure fund count by size bucketSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,202210:This trend was discussed in our previous Real Assets Report.was from funds
74、 in the size bucket of$5 billion or more,and another 29.8%of it was in funds in the$1 billion to$5 billion size bucket.So,as we can expect to see continued robust investment activity for several more years at least,investors will likely continue to put this capital to work via massive investments of
75、 various kinds and using various strategies.$82.7$107.2$158.2$212.3$220.8$222.6$268.8$275.6$333.0$335.2$0$50$100$150$200$250$300$350$4002000021Cumulative overhang$287.62022*20222020152014Overhang by vintageInfrastructure dry powder($B)Source:Pit
76、chBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,202213Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTUREFundInvestorFund size($M)Close date(2022)Fund typeFund step-upLocationKKR Global Infrastructure Investors IVKKR$16,709.0March 15Core2.3xNew York,USBrookfield Global TransitionBrookfield Asset Management$1
77、5,000.0June 22OpportunisticN/AToronto,CAISQ Global Infrastructure IIII Squared Capital$15,000.0April 7Value-added2.1xMiami,USStonepeak Infrastructure IVStonepeak Infrastructure Partners$14,000.0February 2Value-added1.9xNew York,USInfravia European VInfraVia Capital Partners$5,608.0March 10Infrastruc
78、ture2.4xParis,FRMacquarie Asia-Pacific Infrastructure 3Macquarie Asset Management$4,200.0May 31Core1.3xSingaporeCI Energy Transition ICopenhagen Infrastructure Partners$3,033.0September 1CoreN/ACopenhagen,DKApollo Infrastructure Opportunities IIApollo Global Management$2,542.0January 6Opportunistic2
79、.8xNew York,USARDIAN Americas Infrastructure VArdian$2,100.0September 8Core2.6xParis,FRICG Infrastructure Equity 1Intermediate Capital Group$1,653.0March 28OpportunisticN/ALondon,UKMirova Energy Transition 5Mirova$1,599.0September 21OpportunisticN/AParis,FRSDC Digital Infrastructure Opportunity IIIS
80、DC Capital Partners$1,500.0March 31Opportunistic2.0 xNew York,USTiger Infrastructure Partners IIITiger Infrastructure Partners$1,250.0April 25Opportunistic4.1xNew York,USHull Street Energy Partners IIHull Street Energy$1,125.0March 30Core3.0 xBethesda,USKeppel Data Centre IIKeppel$1,100.0January 21G
81、reenfield1.1xSingaporeTop 15 infrastructure funds to close in 2022*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022In terms of the largest infrastructure funds to close in 2022,KKR Global Infrastructure Investors IV at$16.7 billion,Brookfield Global Transition at$15.0 billion,ISQ Global Inf
82、rastructure III at$15.0 billion,and Stonepeak Infrastructure IV at$14.0 billion made the top of the list.Like these funds,the rest of the top 15 were a mix of core,opportunistic,and value-added strategies,with one unspecified and one greenfield.Among the largest funds to close in the first three qua
83、rters of the year,there was a concentration of vehicles investing across three main sectors.The first is the energy transition and sustainable infrastructure,with the vast majority of the list planning on some form of investment in clean energy,climate change,or decarbonization.The second is digital
84、 infrastructure,with communications,data centers,and fiber optic networks highlighted as an investment sector among many of the top 15.The last is transportation infrastructure,which showed up several times on its own,and several times with a sustainability lensfor example,in sustainable aviation fu
85、el,electric mobility,and low-carbonmobility.14Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTURE20000212022*$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140DebtValue-addedOpportunisticGreenfieldCoreInfrastructure0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20000212022*De
86、btValue-addedOpportunisticGreenfieldCoreInfrastructureInfrastructure capital raised($B)by typeShare of infrastructure capital raised by typeSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Slicing by strategy,most infrastructure commit
87、ments raised in the year through Q3 were made to core,opportunistic,or value-added funds,with a somewhat even distribution among the three,at$29.1 billion,$26.2 billion,and$30.9 billion,respectively.Core fund commitments as of Q3 are comparable to the average of the decade prior and are on track to
88、meet the trend of recent highs.In contrast,opportunistic and value-add commitments are already far above both their five-year and 10-year averages.It is interesting to see fundraising unfold in this way,as it shows that even as investors gravitate toward the security of infrastructures fundamentals,
89、risk appetite varies considerably.GPs and LPs are weighing risk versus performance opportunity,with core strategies on the lower end of the risk spectrum but more heavily impacted by interest rates.As for the other fund types,unspecified“Infrastructure”raised$7.4 billion in the year through Q3,green
90、field funds received$1.1 billion,and debt funds raised$0.6 billion.If trends continue,unspecified infrastructure funds and debt funds will have commitments far below five-and 10-year averages,but greenfield fund commitments will be middling.North American infrastructure funds dominated the fundraisi
91、ng scene in 2022 more than in any other previous year,with$72.0 billion raised across 25 vehicles in the year through Q3,already eclipsing commitments from the region in any full year.European fundraising hit a lull in 2022,at$17.4 billion raised across 15 funds,far below historical averages.Asian f
92、undraising was also slow,at$5.8 billion raised across four funds,but not quite as far behind compared with historical trends.Rest-of-world commitments are minuscule at$100.0 million from one fund,with this year likely to be its lowest on record.This geographic split is likely attributable to several
93、 causes.First,the US has been experiencing higher inflation than the eurozone and other advanced economies,thus making inflation-hedging asset classes relatively more attractive.11 In addition,there has been an advantageous government spending and regulatory environment in the US,which has stimulate
94、d GP interest in the geography.Lastly,2022s geopolitical tensions in Europe will likely offer more tailwinds to future fundraising,although they are not being felt much now.11:“Global Inflation Tracker Q3 2022:Inflation May Have Peaked but Energy Prices Continue To Cause Headwinds,”Euromonitor Inter
95、national,Justinas Liuima,September 13,2022.15Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTURE$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$20002020212022*NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaRest ofworld$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$20002020212022*NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaRest ofwor
96、ld20000212022*NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaRest ofworld0204060800Infrastructure capital raised($B)by regionInfrastructure fund count by regionSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022On the
97、regulatory side,the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed in November 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)passed in August 2022 offer fundraising tailwinds to North American infrastructure funds.One year after its passage,the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law has funded key projects in every state,w
98、ith resources dedicated to strengthening bridges,seaports,airports,and other trade and transportation hubs.12 Private funds stand to benefit from public-private partnerships(PPPs)as local and state governments are both short staffed and being squeezed on wages.Contract work becomes more appetizing w
99、hen governments have difficulty hiring employees due to a tight labor force and lengthy approvals process.The IRA is impactful on the tax incentive front for renewables infrastructure and battery storage.For new technologies,support of research&development through the IRA can make a huge difference,
100、providing infrastructure opportunities in the future.Both pieces of regulation also create the perception that local governments will be more receptive to infrastructure projects,thus reducing the uncertainty associated with bureaucratic red tape.In addition,the IRAs programs and incentives will per
101、sist regardless of the macroeconomic landscape,which has instilled more confidence in clean energy for more risk-averse investors.13On the geopolitical side,the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting energy crisis in Europe should,in theory,stimulate European fundraising in coming quarters.There is ample
102、opportunity,particularly in energy infrastructure,as a result of the need to stabilize energy supply.Further,while there was a question of whether the energy crisis would result in a long-term revival of fossil fuels investment,it has become obvious that the transition to clean energy has been forti
103、fied and acceleratedrather than enervatedby it.14 As such,there will likely be both medium-term and long-term opportunity in sustainable energy infrastructure.However,in the short term,it seems that the uncertainty associated with the war has contributed to the lull in European infrastructure fundra
104、ising.In coming quarters,we will be able to evaluate whether it has resulted in longer times to close or has,in fact,prevented fundraising overall.Additionally,some funds raised in North America can still invest internationally,so it may be that funds domiciled in the US and Canada are less visibly
105、taking advantage of the opportunity in Europe.12:“One Year Later:The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is Delivering for American Workers and Families,”Steny Hoyer,November 15,2022.13:“KGHG Q3 Update:Inflation Reduction Act and Energy Independence Drive the Energy Transition,”Krane Shares,Roger Mortimer
106、,November 7,2022.14:Ibid.16Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTUREBesides those already discussed,other important forces are at play,including the global supply chain.The disruptions of 2021 have created a domino effect that continues to impact logistics;while shipping costs are lower now th
107、an at the peak numbers of 2021,they are still far above historical averages.15 Similarly,the vessel lineup at North American ports is easing but remains far above pre-pandemic levels.16 Although continued high demand should,in theory,benefit assets such as ports,railroads,and toll roads,there are fa
108、ctors limiting the ability of some of them to meet it.One such factor is the tight labor market and related ongoing disputes with union workers at major ports and railways in the US,which could result in further congestion.17 While inability to meet demand may limit the boost to returns that those a
109、ssets could be experiencing,with historically high volumes,returns are unlikely to take a hit as a result.High fuel costs,which affect most freight types,are another factor to consider though,as they can eat into profit margins.In terms of recent private fund returns,infrastructures one-year perform
110、ance,at 16.7%,hit a post-GFC zenith in Q1 2022.This return is considerably higher than the five-year and 10-year IRRs of 10.7%and 10.3%,respectively.Plus,in the context of the IRR drops felt by other asset classes such as PE and VC,it is not only attractive,but clearly accomplishing what investors i
111、n the space had hoped.18 While inflation comes with both headwinds and tailwinds for infrastructure,it seems that,overall,the macroeconomic environment has either supported or failed to hamper returns in 2021 and early 2022.Headwinds due to inflation are frequently tied to increased cost of capital
112、and heightened development and operating costs.However,for established infrastructure assets with long-term financing using fixed rates,these headwinds may not yet have hit.For greenfield projects or those involving major renovation or repositioning,they are more likely to be impactful,although oper
113、ating costs still tend to be relatively low across infrastructure asset types.Furthermore,inflation can benefit infrastructure returns,with the asset class often experiencing inelastic demand,which results in strong pricing power,or cash flows indexed to inflation.Looking ahead,a few data points sug
114、gest what future infrastructure returns may look like.In Q1 2022,the FTSE Nareit Infrastructure Index had a short fall from its five-year high at the end of 2021,but it recovered slightly,with milder fluctuations from March through July 2022.While it experienced another short drop in September,it is
115、 still up 59.4%from 2017,which bodes well for the space.The FTSE Nareit Data Centers Index moved with the Infrastructure Index,although it was overall closer to 2017 numbers than the Infrastructure Index,up 22.1%from the 2017 baseline.Digital infrastructure,including data centers,has been experienci
116、ng greater investor interest post-pandemic,which highlighted how integral to business and economic continuity the sector has become.Public funding has also been benefiting the sector,with funds at the local,state,and federal levels in the US aiming to help improve broadband infrastructure.For more t
117、raditional assets such as ports,railroads,and toll roads,reduced consumer demand resulting from recessionary concerns may dampen freight activity but likely will not dramatically harm outcomes for related assets.Data on the YoY change in monthly total equivalent unit volume going through the Port of
118、 Los Angeles,the largest port in the US,shows this metric decreasing since May 2022.19 Given many ports were operating at or near capacity in 2021,it is unsurprising that YoY changes have been negative for much of the year.Plus,the year is still expected to close out with near-record numbers for the
119、 port.The producer price index for freight services also showed that truck freight seemingly began to normalize in May 2022,with air freight following suit in June,and water freight showing signs of doing the same in August.Rail freight continued to climb into September.Despite movement toward more
120、normal levels,water,truck,and air freight remained far above historical norms,only a few percentage points below five-year highs from earlier in 2022.15:“The State of the Supply Chain in 2022?A Lot Like 2021,”Marketplace,Lily Jamali,August 2,2022.16:“Ocean Freight Market Update,”DHL,December 2022.17
121、:“Freight Rails Q3 Dominated by Labor Contract Uncertainties,Service Issues,”Freight Waves,Joanna Marsh,October 11,2022.18:For more on the performance of other asset classes,check out our most recent Global Fund Performance Report.19:”Container Statistics,”The Port of Los Angeles,n.d.,accessed Novem
122、ber 15,2022.17Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTINFRASTRUCTUREDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSep2022*202182017-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%YoY change in Port of Los Angeles monthly TEU volumeSource:Port of Los Angeles|Geography:US*As of September 30,2022DecMar
123、JunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSep2022*202182017-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Air freightWater freightTruck freightRail freightProducer price index for select transportation servicesSource:FRED,US Bureau of Labor Statistics|Geography:US*As of September 30,202218Q3 2022 GLOBAL R
124、EAL ASSETS REPORTOIL&GASOil&gas20000212022*Capital raised($B)Fund count$16.3$32.4$25.2$44.0$16.0$20.3$18.3$15.5$12.4$2.7$2.334425355333135292387Oil&gas fundraising activitySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Juliet Clemens Analyst,Fund Strategies
125、Thus far in 2022,private oil&gas funds raised$2.3 billion across seven vehicles.Since fundraising highs in 2015 when private oil&gas funds raised$44.0 billion across 55 vehicles,the space has seen waning interest,with precipitous drops in both fund value and count.This was seen most recently between
126、 2020,when fundraising value was at$12.4 billion across 23 funds,and 2021,which had respective numbers at just$2.7 billion across eight funds.Oil&gas funds have seen declining interest over the last decade due to generally low performance in the sector;rolling one-year horizon IRRs were negative as
127、recently as Q4 2020,when oil&gas funds generated a-19.7%return.In addition,many GPs are in various stages in the shift to noncarbon energy,often at the insistence of LPs.This has shifted demand from oil&gas assets to energy infrastructure investments;the average number of oil&gas fundraises between
128、Q1 2017 and Q3 2022 hovers around just six fundraises per quarter.Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war,however,are forcing countries in Europe to confront their immediate energy needs going into the winter,particularly after the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline,which occurred at the tail end
129、of Q3 2022.In addition,in October 2022,the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)announced that it would slash production of oil by 2 million barrels per day;20 this took effect in November,thereby increasing upward pressure on pricing.It has become clear that while there is a need
130、for the energy transition away from fossil fuels,it cannot happen quickly enough to relieve the current pressures.While such market conditions may benefit those already invested in the space,they are likely insufficient to draw new investors,given the volatility of commodities and the uncertainty of
131、 how the energy transition will impact such assets over the long life of a private fund.Politics also heavily influences the short-term future of oil&gas,as OPEC aligned itself with Russia through its production cuts,and in August,Russia approached several Asian countries to discuss long-term oil co
132、ntracts at steep discounts amid a push from the US to cap prices of its crude.21 These geopolitical tensions and the overall uncertainty in oil&gas pricing are likely deterring investors from the space.20:“What Opecs 2 Million-barrel Cut Could Mean for U.S.Gas Prices,”Axios,Ben German,October 5,2022
133、.21:“Russia Sends More Energy to Asia as Europe Cuts Back,”AP News,September 6,2022.19Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOIL&GASThere is a heavy correlation between oil&gas prices and oil&gas fund returns.Oil prices have been on the rise since April 21,2020,when Brent crude prices hit a nadir of just$
134、9.12 per barrel,which corresponded to a Q2 2020 rolling one-year return of-28.8%.22 Comparatively,with the West Texas Intermediate(WTI)crude oil price at$94.45 per barrel in Q1 2022,the rolling one-year IRR figure for private oil&gas funds was at 42.2%,making private oil&gas the standout performer a
135、mong the real asset sectors.As recently as October 31,the Alerian MLP ETF,which consists of publicly traded stocks with underlying assets in transportation,storage,and processing of energy commodities,was up 35.3%YTDa stark contrast to the-17.7%YTD figure of the S&P 500an impressive return profile,w
136、hich may draw modest attention from investors going into 2023.23So far in 2022,seven funds,all out of North America,have completed final closes,raising a total of$2.3 billion and making 2022 the second consecutive year in which private oil&gas funds were raised exclusively out of Canada or the US.In
137、 fact,no private oil&gas funds have been raised outside North America or Europe since 2017.Unusually,but indicative of the small universe of oil&gas funds,one of the largest vehicles to close in 2022 was a co-investment vehicle,Cibolo Energy Co-investment V,which closed on$102.5 million.With that ve
138、hicle off and running,it appears Cibolo is also in market-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q320000212022*Oil&gas one-year IRR(left axis)Change in WTI oil price(right axis)Oil&gas rolling one-year IRR and
139、change in WTI oil priceSource:PitchBook,FRED|Geography:Global*Oil&gas one-year IRR as of March 31,2022;WTI oil price as of September 30,202220000212022*20000212022*$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45North AmericaEuropeAsiaMiddle EastOceaniaA
140、fricaRest of worldOil&gas capital raised($B)by regionSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,202222:“Brent Crude Oil Prices 10 Year Daily Chart,”Macro Trends,n.d.,accessed November 15,2022.23:“October 2022,”AJO Vista,October 31,2022.with two more funds,making this Houston-based asset ma
141、nager quite an active player in the space.20Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOIL&GASThe median fund size among the vehicles was$200.0 million.The largest vehicle to close was Carnelian Energy Capital IV,which closed on$975.0 million in April 2022.Both Lex Energy Partners V,which closed on$200.0 mill
142、ion,and Carnelian Energy Capital IV had modest step-ups to their latest funds,at 1.7x and 1.2x,respectively.However,two funds also experienced step-downs:Lime Rock Resources V,which raised 0.7x of the commitments of its previous fund,and Waterous Energy II,which raised 0.3x of the commitments of its
143、 prior vehicle.Several prominent oil&gas funds are currently looking to fundraise over$1 billion,which could provide a significant boost to fundraising in Q4 2022 or early 2023 should they successfully reach a final close.Through September 30,2022,private oil&gas funds had$25.8 billion in dry powder
144、 at their disposal,the lowest figure seen since 2006,when funds had$23.9 billion to spend,and far below the peak of$88.1 billion in 2015.These low dry powder figures and a presumed similar decline in attention from generalist funds resulted in a decline in PE deal count for the industry between 2021
145、 and numbers tallied so far in 2022,which stood at 327 and 177,respectively.However,2022 PE deal value may match that of 2021s$56.7 billion,as 2022 deal value came in at$42.1 billion by the end of Q3.A bright spot for oil&gas was M&A activity:Deal value for oil&gas M&A transactions in 2022 through Q
146、3 stood at$205.2 billion across 440 deals,surpassing Top quartileMedianBottom quartileAverage$0$200$400$600$800$1,0002000212022*Oil&gas capital raised($M)dispersionSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022$72.3$75.2$105.9$86.6$54.8$110.8$87.7$64.4$50.5$56.7$42.1
147、487503598433454632720002020212022*Deal value($B)Deal count$290.1$274.1$326.2$229.1$252.4$319.3$323.5$265.0$115.1$174.5$205.21,0511,0811,302975929897854020000212022*Deal value($B)Deal countOil&gas PE deal activity
148、Oil&gas M&A activitySource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of September 30,2022the deal values of both 2020 and 2021.The 2022 figures are driven primarily by the Q2 merger of BHP Petroleum with Woodside in Australia.The deal activity that we rep
149、ort on may not be part of private fund activity,as this deal was not,but it is indicative of the health of deal activity in the space.2424:“Merger Completion and in Specie Distribution,”BHP,June 1,2022.21Q3 2022 GLOBAL REAL ASSETS REPORTOIL&GAS-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%200152016
150、2002020212022*Oil&gas quarterly horizon IRRsSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Given current market conditions,private oil&gas,particularly the funds substantially invested prior to the uptick in oil prices,will likely continue to see strong performance in 2023,especiall
151、y if oil prices remain high or trend higher.However,it will be important to watch for updates in international actions that may put downward pressure on oil pricing.For example,in mid-October,President Biden authorized the sale of 15 million additional barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Res
152、erve(SPR),thus completing the initiative to work with the International Energy Agency(IEA)in releasing 180 million barrels to lower pricing for consumers that the administration announced in the spring.25 This international,cooperative initiative suggests that,should oil&gas prices trend too highly,
153、nations may continue to step in to rebalance market conditions in favor of consumers,which may pose a limiting factor to fund returns.Adding to the complexity of factors that may influence oil&gas pricing,in June 2022,the EU implemented its sixth package of sanctions on seaborne imports of Russian c
154、rude oil,which took effect on December 5,as well as on petroleum imports in early February 2023.26Another development to watch for in the United States is the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels(NOPEC)Act,which was reintroduced in Congress in response to OPECs announcement to slash oil production
155、.27 The legislation is designed to allow OPEC and its national oil companies to be sued under US antitrust law,and while it has been introduced to Congress several times since 2000 without much success,this will be worth following in the coming months.Should there be a downtrend reversal in oil pric
156、ing,the outsized advantage that oil&gas investors gained during higher prices will deteriorate,so it is important to keep an eye out for upwardor downwardprice movements in 2023.25:“FACT SHEET:President Biden to Announce New Actions to Strengthen U.S.Energy Security,Encourage Production,and Bring Do
157、wn Costs,”The White House,October 18,2022.26:“European Union Imposes Partial Ban on Russian Oil,”Center for Strategic&International Studies,Ben Cahill,June 8,2022.27:“Explainer:What Is Nopec,the U.S.Bill to Pressure the OPEC+Oil Group?,”Reuters,Timothy Gardner,October 5,2022.Additional researchCOPYR
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