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1、Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources,Energy and Sustainable DevelopmentDecember 2022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable DevelopmentSpecial Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryAnniversarySpecial EditionthThe ever-more-frequency of extreme weather events around

2、 the globe alerts us that climate change is not only an immediate threat,but also a long-term and deep-seated challenge for humanity.The most recent IPCC Sixth Assessment Report highlights that global warming triggered by human activities is causing extensive rapid changes in the atmosphere,oceans,c

3、ryosphere and biosphere,and climate change is already causing enormous damage and increasingly irreversible losses in the ecosystem.To achieve societal-wide sustainable development,humanity must carry out self-revolution,and unite together to actively address climate change.The Paris Agreement adopt

4、ed by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)in 2015 established the goal of Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C a

5、bove pre-industrial levels by the end of this century,clearly defining the collective global response to climate change.The long-term vision and institutional arrangements for the global response to climate change and the general direction of Preface I12022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Dev

6、elopment:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industrythe future green and low-carbon transition have been outlined in the Paris Agreement.On September 22,2020,President Xi Jinping solemnly announced at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly that China will scale up its Intend

7、ed National Determined Contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures,while striving to peak CO2 emissions by 2030,and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.This solemn commitment has greatly boosted global confidence in addressing climate change.However,we should also recognize that C

8、hinas industrial structure remains heavy,its energy structure largely relies on coal,its scientific and technological innovation capacity is insufficient,and there is only a short 30-year window from carbon peaking to neutrality,shorter than the average cycle of developed countries.Therefore,to achi

9、eve the double carbon goal brings huge challenges,we must implement systemic change in the economy and the society,and must balance between the four relationships of emission reduction and development,overview and specific,short and medium to long-term,government and market.It is necessary to recogn

10、ize that there is a dialectical relationship between carbon peak and carbon neutrality:“If one is fast,the other will follow fast,if one is low then the other will be easy,if one is slow then the other will be challenging.Recognizing that it must be viewed as a whole from a connected systematic poin

11、t of view and the establishment of a systemic and holistic view cannot be achieved without in-depth strategic and path-planning studies.The energy system is the key to green and low-carbon transformation.According to the research of Tsinghua Universitys Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable De

12、velopment,China needs to follow a long-term deep decarbonization transition path oriented by the 2C and 1.5C targets of the Paris Agreement.This means a fundamental change in our energy system from the current fossil energy share of about 85%gradually shifting to a non-fossil energy share of more th

13、an 80%by 2060.To this end,we should not only vigorously develop non-fossil energy,but also grasp the development of renewable energy and traditional fossil energy transition with a high degree of research and innovation.At the same time,the industrial sector,including steel,cement and other energy-i

14、ntensive industries,is the main target of the energy system.It is not only the main Preface2AnniversarySpecial Editionthsource of energy consumption but industrial production processes are also the main source of CO2 emissions.According to the 2014 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report,it is proj

15、ected that the total carbon emissions from the industrial sector in China amount to around 4.7 billion tons,accounting for 46%of the countrys total CO2 emissions.Evidently,the timing and peak scale of the industrial sector will play a significant role in the national carbon peaking,and the hard-to-a

16、bate industries and production processes will also directly affect the layout of achieving the carbon neutrality target,and the study of such a key sector is necessary and urgent.In view of this,Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development(The Joint Centr

17、e of Tsinghua-Rio Tinto)focuses on key issues in the low-carbon transition of industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals,to carry out continuous research work.This report is one of the Centres series of reports,Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development,released on the occasion of the

18、Centres 10th anniversary.The report focuses on carbon neutrality in the metal industry,and presents the research understanding from a multidisciplinary perspective on various issues such as policy action measures,capacity layout optimization,low-carbon technology assessment,and accounting method imp

19、rovement in the steel and non-ferrous metals industries.This will help readers understand the important issue of metal carbon neutrality in resources,energy and sustainable development in the global climate change landscape,and thus provide references for relevant policy formulation and action,as we

20、ll as a reference for policy formulation and implementation.Due to the limitation of capacity,there will be some inaccuracies and even errors in the book,and we warmly welcome readers feedback and criticism.Zheng Li President of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentTsinghua Uni

21、versity32022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryPrefaceClimate change is one of the biggest challenges facing society as a whole across the world.While there is broad consensus on the need to tackle climate change,there h

22、as yet to be sufficient action globally.At Rio Tinto,we believe we should play an integral and essential part in the climate change solution.In 2021,we put the low carbon transition at the heart of our business strategy and are focused on three key areas:Producing materials essential for the low-car

23、bon transition,including copper,low-carbon aluminium,battery minerals and high-quality iron ore.Reducing the carbon footprint of our operations by investing in low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy solutions including wind and solar.Partnering to reduce the carbon footprint of our value c

24、hains by increasing our R&D investment to speed up the development of products and technologies that will also enable our customers to decarbonise quicker.We announced an ambitious plan to achieve a 15%reduction in scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2025,50%reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050.To deliver

25、these targets,we will invest approximately$7.5 billion in capital between 2022 and 2030.Chinas commitment to bring its carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 gave new impetus to the Paris Agreement and action on climate change more broadly.The iron and steel indust

26、ry alone contributes around 8%of global greenhouse gas emissions,and 15%of Chinas total carbon emissions.To achieve net zero in Chinas metallurgical industry requires significant resources.With the scale of investment and innovation required,none of us can achieve our climate change goals alone.Part

27、nerships are critical.Rio Tinto is committed to Preface II4AnniversarySpecial Editionthworking with our strategic partners in business,industry and academia,investing and leveraging our insights from across the value chain to achieve technological breakthroughs.Ever since its establishment in 2012,t

28、he Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development has been actively promoting cooperative research with institutions at home and abroad,aiming to contribute wisdom and solutions to the sustainable development of resources and energy in China and in the worl

29、d.Over the past decade,Rio Tinto has been proud to support the research of the Centre to explore ways to respond to climate change,including improving environmental performance across the steel value chain.As we celebrate the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Centre,I hope we take this op

30、portunity to deepen friendship and mutual trust,expand exchanges and cooperation,and combine our strengths to bring together solutions to help address the steel industrys carbon footprint.In commemoration of the 10th anniversary,the book is a compilation of the leading works by Tsinghua scholars on

31、decarbonisation topics.Looking ahead,I wish the Centre even greater success in delivering impactful results informing both policy and industry,at home and abroad.I am confident the Centre will become a leading source of the knowledge and innovation that will help achieve Chinas climate goals and sol

32、ve the global challenges we all face.Alf Barrios Chief Commercial Officer and China Chairman Rio Tinto52022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry6Contents Preface I 1 Preface II 4 Abstract 10 Members of the Centres Flagship

33、 Project Team for 2020-2021 12 Chapter 1 Centres Decade Milestone 14 First Phase of Cooperation(2012-2017)16 Second Phase of Cooperation(2017-2020)18 Third Phase of Cooperation(2020-2025)22Chapter 2 Research Development of the Flagship Project Carbon Neutrality in Metal Indusrty 28 Comprehensive Top

34、ic:Systematic Analysis of Chinas Iron and Steel Low-Carbon Development Strategy 30 Topic 1:Regional Perspective of the Carbon Neutrality Strategy and Pathway for the Steel Industry 43 Topic 2:Demand Estimation and Plant-Level Low-carbon Transition Pathway towards Carbon Neutrality in Chinas Steel In

35、dustry 5878Contents Topic 3:Low-Carbon Technologies in the Steel Industry:Identification,Evaluation and Application Prospects 68 Topic 4:Improvement in GHG Emission Accounting Methodology for Steel under Multiple Constraints 75 Topic 5:Steel Industrys Low Carbon Development:International Trends and

36、National Policies 90 Topic 6:Study on the Potential of Online Detection Technology for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Steel Production 102 Topic 7:Carbon Neutral Pathway of Critical Non-Ferrous Metals for Energy Storage 113Chapter 3 Academic Achievements and Policy Contributions 126 1.Key A

37、cademic Papers Introduction 128 2.Academic views on policy issues 146 3.Industry perspectives on subjects of debate 1499AbstractThe development and utilization of resources and energy are the building blocks that support the development of human society,but also are the main cause of human-induced e

38、cological and environmental impacts.Confronted with the increasingly serious climate change globally,countries urgently need to join hands to promote a low-carbon transformation around the development and utilization of resources and energy,in order to achieve sustainable development of the global e

39、conomy and society.As a key country rich in resources and energy development and utilization,China has solemnly announced the development goal of striving to peak CO2 emissions by 2030,and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,which will have a strong impact on sustainable development of resources an

40、d energy.For example,it will promote large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy and the overall increase of electrification,and it will promote the development and application of extreme energy efficiency,recycling and major emission reduction technologies for metal production.In vi

41、ew of the complex issues of resource,energy and sustainability,Tsinghua University,based on the Low Carbon Energy Laboratory,integrated the research resources of several faculties and established the Joint Centre of Tsinghua-Rio Tinto jointly with Rio Tinto in 2012,organizing interdisciplinary resea

42、rch teams to carry out research around resource,energy and sustainability.At present,the Centre has successfully completed the first two phases of research collaboration,and published the Chinese monograph Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development and the English monograph Chinas Resources

43、,Energy and Sustainable Development:10AnniversarySpecial Editionth2020.In the third phase,the Centre launched the flagship project”Carbon Neutrality in the Metal Industry”,focusing on metals as a key element in the implementation of resource and energy systems.This year is the second year of the fla

44、gship project and the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Centre,we are pleased to prepare a Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy Study for the Metal Industry to review the development of the Centre and introduce the progress and research results of the Centre.This report mainly con

45、sists of three parts.The first part is a review of the decade of the development history of The Joint Centre of Tsinghua-Rio Tinto,and on the basis of revisiting the mission and vision of the Centre,it summarizes the cooperation directions and main research results of the three cooperation phases re

46、spectively,and looks forward to the future development direction.The second part focuses on the flagship project in the third phase of collaboration,outlines the general layout of the flagship project and the progress of each special study.The third section summarizes the main achievements of the Ce

47、ntre under the flagship project,including key academic papers,science-based policy briefings and science-based industry perspectives.This report was prepared by the Centres project team,with the research and preparation process guided by the Centres academic committee members,including Jiankun He,Zh

48、eng Li,Qiang Yao,Can Wang,Xiliang Zhang,and Zanji Wang,as well as the support of the Centres Steering Committee members,many colleagues from Rio Tinto,and faculty and students from Tsinghua University.112022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strat

49、egy for Metal IndustryMembers of the Centres Flagship Project Team for 2020-2021Academic Committee Director:Zheng LiAcademic Committee Members:Xiliang Zhang Zanji Wang Qiang Yao Can WangComprehensive Topic:Systematic Analysis of Chinas Iron and Steel Low-Carbon Development Strategy Linwei Ma Shansha

50、n Yang Honghua Yang Yuancheng Lin Ruipeng He Yuan YuanTopic 1:Regional Perspective of the Carbon Neutrality Strategy and Pathway for the Steel Industry Shiyan Chang Bing Li Sining Ma Lina Zhang Haohua Deng Chao Yang Topic 2:Demand Estimation and Plant-Level Low-carbon Transition Pathway towards Carb

51、on Neutrality in Chinas Steel Industry Wenjia Cai Xueqin Cui Zhao Liu Shihui Zhang Ruiyao Li Jin Li Canyang Xie 12AnniversarySpecial EditionthTopic 3:Low-Carbon Technologies in the Steel Industry:Identification,Evaluation and Application Prospects Xunmin Ou Lei Ren Jianzhe Liu Zeyu Chen Topic 4:Impr

52、ovement in GHG Emission Accounting Methodology for Steel under Multiple Constraints Jian Zhou Lingling Zhou Jie Zhang Junjun Shi Topic 5:Steel Industrys Low Carbon Development:International Trends and National Policies Jinxi Wu Xu Bai Nuo Ge Yongtao Wu Topic 6:Study on the Potential of Online Detect

53、ion Technology for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Steel Production Zhe Wang Zongyu Hou Weiran Song Shangyong Zhao Jiacen Liu Weilun Gu Yuzhou Song Jianxun Ji Topic 7:Carbon Neutral Pathway of Critical Non-Ferrous Metals for Energy Storage Han Hao Shilong Du Hao Dou Yunfeng Deng Xin Sun Deng

54、ye Xun132022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryChapter 1:Centres Decade Milestone14AnniversarySpecial EditionthVisionMissionStriving to become one of the most influential domestic and global think tanks through informed

55、insights and solutions to Chinas and the global sustainable development of resources and energy,contribute to the sustainable development of all humankind.Organizing an inter-disciplinary research team with key relevant departments to conduct research in energy resources and sustainable development,

56、actively promoting cooperative research opportunities with overseas and domestic institutions.Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development was established in 2012.It is a joint scientific research institution established by Tsinghua University and Rio Tin

57、to.With a track of indepth and practical collaboration in the last two phases(2012-2017 and 2017-2020,respectively),the Centre is entering the third phase of 2020-2025,with 2022 marking the 10th anniversary since the establishment of the Centre.The Centres mission is to consolidate relevant departme

58、nts across the university to conduct interdisciplinary research on energy resources and sustainable development,and actively promote joint research opportunities with domestic and international institutions,aiming to provide intelligent solutions to the sustainable development globally and in China

59、in resources and energy.While striving to become one of the most influential think tanks in China and around the world,contributing to the sustainable development of all humankind.152022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industr

60、yFirst Phase of Cooperation(2012-2017)11.The signing ceremony of the first phase of cooperation was held on July 2nd,2012.Chen Jining,then President of Tsinghua University,signed the contract on behalf of Tsinghua University.The director of the Centre was Professor Qiang Yao,and the main team leader

61、s consist of five professors,Zheng Li,Xiliang Zhang,Pengfei Du,Yongda Yu and Zanji Wang.Given the common interests of Tsinghua University and Rio Tinto in resources,energy and sustainability,in 2012,the joint research centre was established under the Tsinghua University Low-Carbon Energy Laboratory.

62、Where an interdisciplinary research team incorporating five department within Tsinghua University,including the Department of Energy and Power Engineering,Department of Electrical Engineering,Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,School of Environment,and School of Public Policy&Management,

63、organizes and researches on key topics in energy,mineral resources and sustainable development globally,with a special focus on China.16AnniversarySpecial Editionth22.During which,the Centre conducted 12 commissioned research projects,published approximately 50 papers,and one multidisciplinary acade

64、mic monograph Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development.With the support of Rio Tinto,the Centre also carried out a joint project with the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute,allowing for extensive large-scale research and exchange with domestic steel industry and

65、its corporates.In the first phase,the Centre trained three post-doctors,23 Ph.D.students and 18 master students;and held more than ten academic exchange activities.The Centre invited then CEO of Rio Tinto as a guest speaker at Tsinghua University,and held one related international conference.Based o

66、n the research results,two policy proposals were submitted to the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council of the Peoples Republic of China.172022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal

67、IndustrySecond Phase of Cooperation(2017-2020)11.The signing ceremony of the second phase of cooperation was held on November 24,2017.The director of the Steering Committee and academic committee of the second phase is Professor Jiankun He,the director of the Centre is Professor Zheng Li,the executi

68、ve director of the Centre is Linwei Ma,and the project leaders include Shiyan Chang,Jinxi Wu,Zongsang Lu,Guiping Zhu,Wenjia Cai,and Jian Zhou.18AnniversarySpecial Editionth2.A Memorandum of Understanding(MOU)was signed between China Baowu Steel Group(hereafter Baosteel),Tsinghua University and Rio T

69、into around future environmental cooperation on September 25,2019.Strengthening disciplinary research in cross-disciplinary and project management.More than ten academic webinars were held annually with participation of ten professors teams across seven different academic disciplines.2192022Chinas R

70、esources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry33.The Centre continued to strengthen bilateral exchanges and cooperation in the second phase of cooperation,with exchanges with and visits to Rio Tinto for more than ten times,and have also in

71、vited then CEO and then head of Corporate Relations of Rio Tinto,as guest lecturers at Tsinghua University.The second phase of cooperation focused closely in integrating academic research and industry practice.20AnniversarySpecial Editionth4.Under the results-oriented mechanism for annual project ap

72、plication and academic committee review,the Centre has achieved remarkable research results,with five policy proposals submitted and more than 20 academic papers published.The monograph,Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:2020 was published in January,2021.There are seven chapters on

73、 Chinas energy transition strategy in the context of addressing global climate change,low-carbon urbanization,urban carbon peaking,power system transition,water resources management,battery materials for electric vehicles and low carbon technologies for steel.4212022Chinas Resources,Energy and Susta

74、inable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryThird Phase of Cooperation(2020-2025)22AnniversarySpecial Editionth1.On November 23,2020,the Centre signed the third phase of cooperation,continuing and further strengthening the organizational and management structure

75、,forming a management model with the Steering Committee leading the development of the Centre,and the Academic Committee and the Advisory Committee alongside providing professional guidance,establishing a working model with the Director of the Centre as the main responsible body,supported by a dedic

76、ated project lead and a research team across relevant departments.The Director of the Steering Committee and the Academic Committee of the Centre is Professor Zheng Li,the Director of the Centre is Associate Professor Linwei Ma,the Deputy Director is Ms.Christine Yuan from Rio Tinto,and the project

77、leaders include Shiyan Chang,Wenjia Cai,Xunmin Ou,Jian Zhou,Jinxi Wu,Zhe Wang,Han Hao,Zongxiang Lu,Guiping Zhu,etc.1232022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry2.Jakob Stausholm,CEO of Rio Tinto,and Alf Barrios,Chief Commer

78、cial Officer and China Chairman of Rio Tinto,have participated in the meetings of the Centres steering committee and advisory committee to guide the development of the Centre.224AnniversarySpecial Editionth3.On December 17,2020,Tsinghua University,Rio Tinto and China Baowu jointly held a symposium o

79、n Chinas Steel Industry Low Carbon Development in Beijing.This symposium is the next step in advancing the partnership formed between Rio Tinto,China Baowu and Tsinghua University in 2019 to develop and implement new methods to reduce carbon emissions and improve environmental performance across the

80、 steel value chain.3252022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry4.On December 15,2021,the 2nd Chinas Steel Industry Low-carbon Goal and Pathway Symposium,jointly organized by Tsinghua University,Rio Tinto,and China Baowu,wa

81、s successfully held in Beijing.Based on the success of the first symposium held last year,the symposium aims to further congregate experts from academia and industry,share new ideas and solutions,discuss the pathways of Chinas steel green low-carbon transition,and help China achieve its carbon peak

82、target and carbon neutral vision with practical actions.426AnniversarySpecial Editionth5.In 2021,as the starting year of the third phase of cooperation,the Centre further strengthened its strategic objectives and operational management,formulated a five-year action plan around the Centres mission an

83、d vision,in the aspects of academic research,policy advice,cooperation and exchange,and management services,and has hired full-time researchers to facilitate all aspects of work in an orderly manner.Five-Year Plan of the Centre(2021-2025)AcademicResearchPolicyRecommendationsCooperation and Exchanges

84、Management ServicesFlagship ProjectsAcademicImpactPolicy InfluenceCooperation NetworkEffective ManagementEfficient platformMission,Vision,and Five-Year PlanClose Collaboration with Rio TintoDrafting Policy RecommendationsAnnual Steel SymposiumPapers and PublicityMonographsQuarterly Directors Meeting

85、+Annual Steering Committee MeetingProfessional team,information platform,project management,external communicationMonthly research visits(government,think tanks,relavant institutions),regular external guest lecturesAnnual International Exchange Visits(COP meetings,international think tanks)Advisory

86、Board Closed-Door WorkshopsAcademic Committee and Academic Salon5272022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryAnniversarySpecial EditionthTo promote the interdisciplinary research collaboration,The Joint Centre of Tsinghua-R

87、io Tinto organized professors from the five departments including the Department of Energy and Power Engineering,the Department of Automotive Engineering,the Department of Earth System Science,the School of Social Sciences,the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,the Institute of Energy,En

88、vironment and Economy of Tsinghua University and other institutions to conducting research on the steel industry chain from the international,regional,and corporates perspectives,covering topics such as emission accounting and monitoring,low-carbon technology and other pressing topics.Eight research

89、 reports are summarized in this part to present the research progress of the flagship project Carbon Neutrality in the Metal Industry.Chapter 2:Research Development of the Flagship Project Carbon Neutrality in Metal Indusrty292022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on

90、Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry1.Research BackgroundSteel is one of the most vital basic raw materials in todays society,widely adopted in various sectors of the national economy,such as construction,infrastructure and manufacturing.As the worlds largest steel producer and consumer,Chi

91、nas crude steel production have ranked first in the world for 26 consecutive years since 1996,with crude steel production reaching 1.04 billion tons in 2021,accounting for 52.9%of the worlds total output.Chinas steel industry today is dominated by the blast furnace steelmaking process,resulting in i

92、ts high dependence on resources such as iron ore and coal.The steel industry is the largest source of carbon emission in the manufacturing sector in China.In the short term,the steel industry is a typical resource-and energy-intensive industry,which will remain as a challenge for the carbon Comprehe

93、nsive Topic:Systematic Analysis of Chinas Iron and Steel Low-Carbon Development Strategy30AnniversarySpecial Editionthneutrality in China.As a result,the decarbonization of the steel industry will have a direct impact on the national carbon neutrality target,and the technological barriers of deep de

94、carbonization in the steel industry will also make it one of the bottlenecks to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China,it is significant to accelerate the low-carbon transition of the steel industry.The development of the stee

95、l industry is related to economic development,social governance,the utilization of energy and resource.Thus,its crucial to conduct a deep analysis of the key issues during the low-carbon transition,and systematically analyze the correlation of key factors in order to make a scientific plan of low-ca

96、rbon development pathway.2.Research MethodsTo thoroughly analyze the low-carbon transition of steel industry,this study refers to the ESGO(Energy System-Sustainability-Governance-Operation)framework proposed by Ma et al.on energy transition,1 further emphasizing and revealing the position and role o

97、f the metal system(M)in this framework,and proposes the M-ESGO analysis framework(as shown in Figure 2-1).This framework points out 5 key issues to analyze the steel low-carbon transition including:1)Recognize the constraints of sustainability and how changes in the energy system affect carbon emiss

98、ions(S-E process);2)Identify key metal sectors that affect energy consumption and carbon emissions,and reveal the characteristics of the physical system(E-M process);3)Understand the economic/market drivers of metal production and consumption(M-O process);1.Zhang C.,Yang,H.,Zhao Y.,Ma L.,Larson E.,G

99、reig C.Realizing Ambitions:A framework for iteratively assessing and communicating national decarbonization progress.iScience.2022;25:103695.312022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry4)Sort out available emission reductio

100、n technologies and measures for the market and decision makers,and put forward policy recommendations(O-G process);5)Evaluate the effect of relevant policies on sustainability(G-S process).Figure 2-1 The M-ESGO FrameworkGuided by the M-ESGO framework,the specific research contents and methods of the

101、 comprehensive topic are as follows:1)First,based on energy allocation and the carbon emission allocation methods,trace the flow of Chinas energy-related carbon emission from energy sources to final services,and then identify the metal sectors especially the steel industry is the main source of ener

102、gy consumption and carbon emissions.2)To further understand the physical characteristics of steel systems,the material flow analysis method is applied to trace the flow of steel in China from raw iron ore to end-use products.In order to identify the driving force of steel production and consumption,

103、the extended input-output method is used to calculate the embodied steel of production activities in various economic sectors,further analyzing impact of national economic models on steel consumption;32AnniversarySpecial Editionth3)After obtaining a comprehensive understanding on the characteristics

104、 of the steel physical system and the driving forces of its production and consumption,the next step is to sort out the low-carbon technologies and policy measures available for the steel industry.The framework of the technology roadmap methodology is used,combined with the literature review.Finally

105、,evaluated key actions for the domestic and international steel industry low-carbon development from three dimensions including supply,demand and policy;4)Based on the analysis mentioned above,provide feasible policy recommendations for the low-carbon development of Chinas steel industry.3.Key findi

106、ngs and policy recommendations(1)Traceability of Chinas energy and related carbon emission flows in 2020In this study,we firstly draw the Sankey diagram of Chinas exergy allocation in 2020 based on the energy allocation method,as shown in Figure 2-2.The figure shows the primary energy consumption re

107、sponsibility of each link in the energy system.The distribution of energy flow from left to right goes through five stages:energy sources,intermediate conversion,end-use conversion devices,passive systems,and final services.The color of each flow represents the type of energy,as shown in the legend

108、on the right,while the width of each flow represents the amount of the energy consumption responsibility,in EJ(1018J).The specific method and the detailed description of each stage can be found in the work of Yang et al.(2015)2.This study updates relevant data,which is mainly derived from the 2021 C

109、hina Energy Statistics Yearbook and“2021 China Energy Data”.Based on Figure 2-2,the Sankey Diagram of Chinas Energy-Related Carbon Flow Allocation in 2020 is further plotted by introducing carbon emission factors,as shown in Figure 2-3.The 2.Yang H,Ma L,Li Z.A Method for Analyzing Energy-Related Car

110、bon Emissions and the Structural Changes:A Case Study of China from 2005 to 2015.ENERGIES,2020,13(8):2076.332022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industryframework of the Carbon flow allocation Sankey diagramFlow Allocation San

111、key is basically consistent with that of the energy allocation Sankey diagram.Energy Allocation Sankey.The colors of different flows indicate the carbon responsibility from different energy types,as shown in the legend on the right side of the figure.The unit is ten million tons carbon element,and t

112、he drawing method is the same as above.According to Figures 2-2 and 2-3,the characteristics of Chinas energy flow and energy-related carbon emissions in 2020 are concluded as follows:1)Coal still dominates Chinas energy supply and consumption,accounting for 52.1%of primary energy supply,and up to 74

113、.2%of energy-related carbon emissions;2)From the perspective of the intermediate conversion,primary energy is mainly used as fuel and power generation,accounting for 44.6%and 41.7%respectively,and contributing 41.0%and 39.1%of energy-related carbon emissions,respectively.3)From the perspective of pa

114、ssive systems,the factory system accounts for the largest energy consumption and carbon emissions,with 65%of energy consumption and 67.9%of total carbon emissions(6.27 billion tons of CO2),of which the steel and chemical industries are the largest carbon emitters,accounting for 32.6%and 22.4%of the

115、industrial carbon emissions in 2020,respectively,while the metal industry(steel and non-ferrous metals)accounts for 41.8%.The building system accounts for 24%of energy consumption and 20.9%of carbon emissions.While in the transportation system,the biggest contributor is cars(accounting for 42.8%of c

116、arbon emissions from transportation);4)As for the final services,structural materials account for the key demand,taking up 52.6%of the energy consumption responsibility in 2020 and contributing 54.3%of the carbon emission(5.02 billion tons CO2).Thermal comfort,sustenance,passenger transportation,fre

117、ight transportation,lighting,hygiene and communication respectively account for 13.0%,8.2%,7.1%,6.2%,5.9%,3.8%and 3.2%in the final service energy consumption.It can be found that there is a strong demand for structural materials in China in 2020,which has led to huge energy consumption and carbon em

118、issions in the metal sector,of which the steel 34AnniversarySpecial Editionthindustry is a key contributor.The steel sector accounts for 22.1%of total carbon emissions,including both direct and indirect emissions.Therefore,the low-carbon development of the steel industry is a major challenge for Chi

119、na to achieve carbon neutrality target.(2)Relationship between Chinas steel production,steel consumption and economic developmentThis part aims to systematically reveal the relationship between Chinas steel production,steel consumption and economic development by establishing a wholistic view of ste

120、el flows from the steel production side to the steel consumption side.As shown in Figure 2-4,a Sankey diagram is introduced to show the iron flow in Chinas steel industry in 2018.On the left,the flow of steel in the steel production side is displayed,and on the right,the steel footprint on the steel

121、 material consumption side is displayed.The entire process from iron ore smelting,crude steel production,steel processing,to steel flow in the downstream economic sector,to final demand(gross fixed capital formation,final consumption,and net exports)is comprehensively displayed in the Sankey diagram

122、.The colors of the flow represent different kinds of steel flows,the width of the flow represents the scale of steel flow,and the white vertical lines separate the different steel production and consumption processes.By analyzing Chinas steel flow from consumption to production,from right to left in

123、 the Sankey diagram,several key understandings can be revealed as follows:1)Investment rather than consumption dominated the use of steel in China,driving 75.1%of Chinas steel production in 2018,of which 50.4%was driven by the fixed capital formation in buildings and 24.3%in infrastructure.2)Althoug

124、h the direct import and export volume of Chinas steel products was not large,a considerable part of the steel was embedded in iron-containing end-use products and exported,accounting for 13%of the total steel consumption,which was the second largest driver.3)There was no direct steel consumption in

125、the service industry,but it stimulated 6.8%of Chinas total steel consumption in the form of embodied steel.352022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry4)The construction industry(including buildings and infrastructure)shoul

126、d be the current focus for improving material efficiency,as 58.6%of Chinas domestic steel production is for construction.5)The large amounts of long-products consumed by construction lowered the overall loss fraction of steel fabrication in China(5.7%),but this did not mean advanced manufacturing ef

127、ficiency,and the loss fraction of some steel products is still high(such as clad and coated products,which were 19.3%).6)The historical development path and the limitation of scrap resources have made the BF-BOF route dominate Chinas steel production(accounting for more than 90%).And the emissions p

128、er ton of steel(about 1.7 tons of CO2/t crude steel)of this long-process steel production route are significantly higher than those of the waste electric furnace short-process production route(about 0.6 tons of CO2/t crude steel3).Figure 2-2 Sankey Diagram of Energy Distribution in Chinas Centire St

129、ream in 2020(unit:EJ)3.Lin Y,Yang H,Ma L,et al.Low-Carbon Development for the Iron and Steel Industry in China and the World:Status Quo,Future Vision,and Key Actions.SUSTAINABILITY,2021,13(22).36AnniversarySpecial Editionth Figure 2-3 Sankey Diagram of the Distribution of Energy-related Carbon Flows

130、 in China in 2020(unit:10mil tons)Figure 2-4 Steel Flow Sankey Diagram from Production Side to ConsumptionSide in Chinas Steel Industry,2018 372022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry(3)A review of the global steel indust

131、rys low-carbon development technology roadmapOver the past century,the increase in steel consumption has supported the development of economies around the world.Today,under the commitment of carbon neutrality,the low-carbon transition of the steel industry,a typical emission-intensive and hard-to-ab

132、ate sector,has attracted much attention around the world.This part aims to provide an overview of the low-carbon development technology roadmap of several major steel-producing countries in the world(Table 2-1),to guide policymaking in China.Table2-1 Overview of the Low-Carbon Development Technology

133、 Roadmap of the Steel Industry in the Worlds Major Steel-Producing Countries 3.Status QuoVisionKey ActionsJapanThe third largest steel-producing country;15%of the countrys CO2 emissionsAiming to realize carbon-neutrality by 2050Promotion of COURSE50 project and the ferro coke technologies plus CCUS

134、in the blast furnaceDevelopment of super innovative technologies such as hydro-based iron-makingRecovery of low-to medium-temperature waste heatUse of biomassExpanded use of scrapKoreaThe sixth largest steel-producing country;20%of the countrys CO2 emissionsFollowing the NDC target of carbon neutral

135、ity by 2050Applying new,future technologies,like hydrogen and CCUSImproving energy efficiencyIncreasing the use of low-carbon fuelsReducing F-gas from industrial processesBring forward circular economy38AnniversarySpecial EditionthGermanyThe seventh largest steel-producing country;10%of the countrys

136、 CO2 emissionsTowards climate neutrality by 2050Using hydrogen replacing coke to reduce iron oreMaking further use of carbon within the industrial value networkApplying the carbon capture and storage for unavoidable emissions Increasing the Scrap/EAF route productionThe table above summarizes the lo

137、w-carbon development technology roadmap of the steel industry in Japan,South Korea and Germany.It is evident that the current low-carbon development measures available for the steel industry can be mainly classified into the following four parts:1.Fully improving energy efficiency.The improvement of

138、 energy efficiency is the fastest measure for the steel industry to obtain benefits in the short term,including technical improvement,process optimization,waste heat and waste energy recovery,intelligent management and control;2.Accelerating the transition to electric furnace steelmaking.The CO2 emi

139、ssion per ton crude steel in the electric furnace route is lower,if zero-carbon electricity can be accessed in the future,the steel industry is expected to achieve decarbonization;3.Promoting the circular economy and promote the effective use of steel.In the future,with the development of the econom

140、y,the demand for steel will continue to increase,but the promotion of circular economy strategies can reduce steel production while meeting demand,thereby reducing carbon dioxide emissions.The main measures include more recycling of steel,longer lifetime of steel products,more intensive use of steel

141、,lightweight design;4.Developing innovative steelmaking technologies,such as hydrogen steelmaking and CCUS technology.These innovative steelmaking technologies are expected to achieve true and deep decarbonization of the steel industry,even zero-carbon steel.However,these technologies are still deve

142、loped in the early stage,and require continuous R&D investment to promote the development.392022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry(4)Policy recommendations for the low-carbon development of Chinas steel industryIn view

143、of the main characteristics and existing problems of the steel industry,this part provides some suggestions on the low-carbon development of the steel industry in China:1)Actively guide and control the steel demand.Steel demand is a fundamental issue in China,which is mainly driven by large-scale in

144、vestment in fixed assets,including housing and infrastructure construction.Previously,most studies have underestimated Chinas steel demand.This results from the less attention on the fixed capital investment on steel demand.Therefore,the key to controlling steel demand is to guide and control the pa

145、ce and speed of fixed asset investment,also the key to high-quality development.To avoid the waste of investment and curb over-construction,we must actively guide and control the steel demand,rather than passively respond.2)Formulating the low-carbon development technology roadmap of Chinas steel in

146、dustry as soon as possible.In the near term,the most realistic means of low-carbon development of steel production is energy efficiency improvement,with acceptable costs and few negative effects.However,energy efficiency improvement should not be achieved by repeated construction(e.g.capacity replac

147、ement),otherwise it may not be enough to make ends meet.In the medium term,the most promising way is scrap recycling.Which requires the guide of the recycling of societal scrap,especially scrap embedded in long lifetime houses.This also requires the active use of scrap resources globally.In the long

148、 term,the decarbonization of the remaining steel production needs to be realized through major low-carbon technologies,such as hydrogen steelmaking,CCUS,and biomass substitution.However,at present,these technologies are not mature enough,and it is necessary to continue to invest in the research and

149、development.Overall,low-carbon development of the steel industry requires a series of strategies,including the demand-side that is strongly correlated with fixed asset investment,the supply-side that is closely related to technological development,and the scrap recycling that connect supply and dema

150、nd.Low-carbon development of Chinas steel industry is only plausible with the coordination of both supply and demand.Therefore,the current policy must effectively strengthen the 40AnniversarySpecial Editionthcoordination of the demand side and the development of a large circular economy that connect

151、s the supply and demand side.Otherwise,it is difficult to fundamentally and systematically solve problems if only focusing on the production-side,and it is difficult to achieve economic development and low-carbon development goals at the same time.In order to promote the implementation of the above

152、measures,policy recommendations are made as follows:1)Effectively strengthen the monitoring and management of investment and construction of fixed assets,and ensure that the steel can be effectively used and recovered.Give consideration to the introduction of indicators of related steel consumption

153、or carbon emissions in fixed asset investment for statistical monitoring,such as the introduction of the indicator of steel consumption and steel stocks into economic indicators,the early introduction of carbon labels for steel products,etc.,to avoid duplicate construction and over-construction;2)Cr

154、eate an independent and comprehensive scrap recycling system as soon as possible.It is very important to grasp the recycling of scrap resources in the world and China as a strategic emerging industry and a major low-carbon industry,rather than as a traditional industry,and to give necessary support

155、as soon as possible;3)Support and encourage the steel industry to extensively carry out the research and development and the application of energy efficiency improvements and major low-carbon technologies.It should be combined with industry integration to promote the popularization of high standards

156、 of energy consumption and high research and development levels in the whole industry,resolve the co-existing issue of advanced and backward in low-carbon development,and coordinate scientific and technological policy support for technologies in different stages.4.Research prospectsIn the next phase

157、 of the study,further analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Chinas steel industry can be conducted.It is also expected to establish a model to dynamically analyze steel production,consumption and carbon emissions,and to assess the future impact of different mitigation measures.I

158、n addition,this study will further integrate the outcomes of other 412022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industrytopics and provide policy recommendations.It is necessary to cooperate with the industry,promote the implementat

159、ion of relevant policies and measures,and accelerate the application of research outcomes.5.Members of the Research TeamNAMETITLE/PROJECT ROLEAFFILIATIONLinwei MaTenure Associate Professor/Director of the CentreDepartment of Energy and Power Engineering/The Joint Centre of Tsinghua-Rio TintoShanshan

160、 YangSenior Engineer,Head of ResearchThe Joint Centre of Tsinghua-Rio TintoHonghua YangPhD StudentDepartment of Energy and Power EngineeringYuancheng LinPhD StudentDepartment of Energy and Power EngineeringRuipeng HePhD StudentDepartment of Energy and Power EngineeringYuan YuanPhD StudentDepartment

161、of Energy and Power Engineering42AnniversarySpecial Editionth1.Research BackgroundRegional and Industrial transition pathways have significant impacts on the achieving of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets nationally.The steel industry is not only an important pillar industry to support th

162、e development of the national economy,but also a major carbon emitter.The target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will reshape the overall development and spatial layout of the steel industry.At the same time,the spatial layout characteristics of the steel industry will also affect the region

163、al decarbonization pathways,in turn affecting the national carbon neutrality pathways.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the strategy and pathways of the steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality from a regional perspective.The spatial layout of the steel industry changed greatly in hi

164、story,roughly grouping into three Topic 1:Regional Perspective of the Carbon Neutrality Strategy and Pathway for the Steel Industry432022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industrydifferent stages.In the second half of the eight

165、eenth century and the beginning of the nineteenth century,due to the high fuel consumption per unit of product,steel mills were mostly located in fuel production areas.In the second half of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century,with the reduction of the proportion of coal

166、 and coke consumed in pig iron smelting and the increase in the mining of poor iron ore,the iron and steel industry clearly shifted towards the distribution of iron ore bases.Since the fifties and sixties of the twentieth century,the emergence of large(marine)transport ships has gradually reduced th

167、e cost of bulk commodity transportation,and the layout of the steel industry to the coast or to major consumption places has gradually become the mainstream trend.Under the overall goal of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,what factors will affect the spatial layout of Chinas steel indu

168、stry?What will be the characteristics of the spatial layout of the steel industry?Based on this,how to better layout and optimize the allocation of regional resources,to better achieve the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goal,is the main question that this study will explore.2.Research Me

169、thodsIn the study,the relevant policies of the regional layout of the steel industry were reviewed,critical factors affecting the spatial layout were identified,and the suitability assessment of key technologies in different provinces was conducted.On this basis,the overall trend of the regional lay

170、out of key technologies of the steel industry and the spatiotemporal evolution of energy consumption and carbon emission of the steel industry are simulated,which can provide scientific support to the decision-making of the steel industry toward the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality(Figure 2-5).4

171、4AnniversarySpecial Editionth Figure 2-5 Research methods3.Key findings and policy recommendations(1)Policies related to the regional layout of the iron and steel industryTo align with high-quality economic and social development,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,the National Devel

172、opment and Reform Commission,and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment have issued a number of policies to guide the structural adjustment and industrial transfer of the steel industry(Table 2-2).These policies include restraint policies such as capacity replacement and environmental constraints,a

173、s well as incentive policies to guide industrial transfer and industrial restructuring.In general,the current policies encourage industry transfer to align with local conditions,including local environmental capacity,resource and energy endowments,industrial foundation,market size,and logistics capa

174、city.452022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryTable 2-2 Policies related to the layout of the steel industryAreaYearDepartmentPolicy TitleContentProduction Capacity replacement2021Ministry of Industry and Information Tec

175、hnologySteel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation MeasuresClarify what kinds of iron and steel projects construction must implement capacity replacement;define the categories that can be used for capacity replacement;clarify the method of capacity approvalIndustrial structure adjustment2019N

176、ational Development and Reform CommissionGuidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment(2019 version)13 items for steel encouragement,21 items for steel restriction,and 36 items for steel eliminationIndustry transfer2018Ministry of Industry and Information TechnologyGuidance Catalogue for In

177、dustrial Development and Technology Transfer(2018)Propose guiding direction for the steel industry in the northeast,east,central,and west regions2021 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Ministry of Science and Technology and Ministry of Natural ResourcesThe Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for

178、the Development of Raw Materials IndustryGuide the rational layout of the raw materials industry,optimize the layout of new production capacity,and promote the development of standardized clusters.46AnniversarySpecial Editionth2022Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Development and Refor

179、m Commission,Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentGuidance on Promoting High Quality Development of Steel IndustryEncourage key regions to improve the phaseout standards.Encourage the regions that have the environmental capacity,energy consumption indicators,market demand,resources,and energy security

180、 to undertake the transfer of production capacity.Environmental constraints2019Five ministries including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Development and Reform Commission,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emission in the Iro

181、n and Steel IndustryNewly built(including relocated)steel projects nationwide should,in principle,reach ultra-low emission levels.For existing steel enterprises,by the end of 2025,the transformation of ultra-low emissions of steel enterprises in key regions will be achieved,and the country will stri

182、ve to complete the transformation of more than 80%of its production capacity.2019Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentNotice on Good Assessment and Monitoring of Ultra-low Emission of Iron and Steel EnterprisesNew requirements for the certification and acceptance of ultra-low emission levels.472022Chi

183、nas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry2019Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentGuidance on Strengthening Emergency Emission Reduction Measures in Response to Heavy Pollution WeatherCarry out performance grading of key industries

184、 and revise and improve them by year.Implementing the differentiated production suspension and restriction.2018State CouncilThe Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky DefenseThe focus area was expanded from“2+26”cities in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to the Yangtze River Delta and Fenwei

185、Plain.2021National Development and Reform CommissionProgram to Improve the Control of Energy Consumption Intensity and the Total VolumeFurther strengthen the guidance of double control of energy consumption2021National Development and Reform CommissionSeveral Opinions on Strict Energy Efficiency Con

186、straints to Promote Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Key AreasBy 2025,through the implementation of energy-saving and carbon-reducing actions,the proportion of production capacity reaching the benchmark level in the iron and steel industry will exceed 30%.By 2030,the benchmark levels of e

187、nergy efficiency will be further improved.2022National Development and Reform CommissionImplementation Guide for Energy-saving and Carbon-reducing Transformation and Upgrading in Key Areas of High Energy-Consuming Industries(2022 Edition)Proposed specific goals and directions for energy-saving and c

188、arbon-reducing transformation and upgrading.48AnniversarySpecial Editionth(2)Main Factors Affecting Steel Industry Spatial Layout To achieve carbon neutrality,in addition to reducing the demand of the steel product,carbon neutrality can also be achieved through process reengineering,fuel substitutio

189、n and other methods.The spatial layout of the steel industry is closely related to the choice of carbon neutrality path of steel.Six factors affecting the spatial layout of the steel industry have been analyzed in detail below.1)Industrial foundation China has formed a steel industry layout with Bei

190、jing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China as the main hotspots of steel enterprises.Hebei,Jiangsu,and Shandong are the top three provinces in Chinas steel production,with a total crude steel output of 450 million tons in 2020,accounting for 42%of the countrys total output(Figure 2-8

191、a).From the perspective of iron ore resource sources(Figure 2-8b)and industrial chain maturity,these provinces have a good industrial foundation and will remain the main regions for Chinas steel industry layout in the future.According to some predictive studies,Chinas crude steel production will lik

192、ely drop from the current one billion tons to 300-600 million tons by 2060,a decrease of 40%to 70%.It indicated that many Chinese steel plants will retire early in the future.Therefore,where the steel mills will retire early will become a major concern.From the perspective of the technical level,the

193、 penetration of leading-level equipment is lower in Hebei,Jiangsu,and Shandong provinces than the national average,given the large base(Figure 2-6,Figure 2-7).Thus,it is expected that under stricter energy consumption and carbon emission policies,the scale of capacity decommissioning in these provin

194、ces will be larger.492022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry Figure 2-6 Capacity of Ironmaking Blast Furnaces in Enterprises by technology level Figure 2-7 Capacity of Converters by scale2)Scrap steel resourcesAt present

195、,Chinas steel industry is dominated by blast furnace technology,accounting for about 90%.To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,Chinas steel industry needs to carry out process optimization and innovation.Compared with long-process steelmaking,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of short-p

196、rocess steelmaking can be significantly reduced.Data show that electric furnace steel accounts for 70%in the United States,and 25%in Japan,while Chinas electric furnace steel accounts for only 10%.At present,Chinas electric furnace steelmaking capacity is mainly distributed in Jiangsu,Guangdong,Shan

197、dong,Hubei,Yunnan,Fujian,Sichuan and other provinces,with the electric arc furnace production capacity in long-50AnniversarySpecial Editionthprocess enterprises as the mainstay.The development of Chinas electric furnace steel will go through three stages:First,the initial stage of bottoming out,by 2

198、025,the proportion of electric furnace steel in China will account for 15%-20%in steel production;The second is the stage of rapid growth,by 2035,Chinas electric furnace steel will increase from 20%to 30%;Third,the stage of adapting and balancing,electric furnace steel continues to adapt to the mark

199、et,resources,environment,technology,power and other conditions at that time,gradually reaching a new balance,by 2050,the proportion of electric furnace steel will likely increase to 40%or higher.The main raw material of electric furnace steelmaking is scrap steel resources,and the layout of scrap st

200、eel resources will greatly affect the production layout of electric furnace steel in China.Scrap resources include self-produced scrap,processed scrap,depreciated scrap and net imported scrap.Self-produced scrap is mainly concentrated in the main steel-producing areas;processing scrap is mainly foun

201、d in the developed areas of the machinery manufacturing industry;depreciated scrap is concentrated in economically developed areas.Considering the import of recycled steel raw materials,the coastal areas have advantages.At present,more than 80%of the countrys scrap steel resources are distributed in

202、 Northeast China(Liaoning),North China(Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi),East China(Shanghai,Jiangsu,Shandong,Zhejiang),Central China(Henan,Hubei),Sichuan,Guangdong and other provinces and cities with relatively concentrated and densely populated industrial and mining enterprises(Figure 2-8c).3)Green el

203、ectricity and green hydrogen resourcesThe current energy cost accounts for about 20%-40%of the total cost of steel production(World Steel Association,2021)1,and the energy cost is mainly in coke production.With the promotion of electric furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy technology in the f

204、uture,energy costs will be mainly reflected in the cost of electricity or hydrogen energy consumption,so the distribution of green power and green hydrogen resources in the medium and long term will have a greater impact on the distribution of the newly built steel plants.The new electric furnace st

205、eelmaking capacity will likely be 1.World Steel Association.2021.Energy use in the steel industry.https:/worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/Fact-sheet-Energy-use-in-the-steel-industry.pdf.512022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal

206、Industrymore distributed in the area where the large renewable energy generation base is located.According to Wang et al.(2022)2 and the National Energy Administration(2020)3,Chinas onshore wind power resources are mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,and Xinjiang;Offshore wind power re

207、sources are mainly distributed in Guangdong,Zhejiang,and Shandong;Centralized photovoltaic resources are mainly distributed in Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,and Qinghai;and Hydropower resources are mainly distributed in Sichuan and Yunnan(Figure 2-8d,Figure 2-8e).Hydrogen metallurgy is an important and re

208、volutionary technology for the steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality.It is expected that after 2030,Chinas hydrogen-direct reduced iron-electric furnace steelmaking technology will begin to be promoted and applied on a large scale,and the proportion of hydrogen-based steel may reach 16%in 2050

209、4,and by 2060,the proportion of hydrogen-based steel may reach 25%-50%5,6.At present,Chinas hydrogen energy industry is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other regions,the production mode is mainly fossil fuels(especia

210、lly coal)hydrogen production,and the hydrogen energy currently used in the steel industry is mainly from coke oven hydrogen production.In the future,with the further strengthening of carbon emission reduction target constraints,the large-scale promotion of hydrogen metallurgy technology may be carri

211、ed out simultaneously with the large-scale application of renewable energy hydrogen production.According to Huang and Liu(2020)7,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Shandong,Hebei,Gansu,and other provinces will be the regions with the most potential for renewable energy 2.Wang,Y.and Q.Chao,et al.2022.Assessment

212、 of wind and photovoltaic power potential in China.Carbon Neutrality 1(1).3.Department of New and Renewable Energy,National Energy Administration Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission.2020.Renewable Energy Databook 20204.Zhang Zhen,Du Xianjun.2021.Study on carbon reduc

213、tion economy of hydrogen metallurgy under the carbon neutral target.Price Theory and Practice.65-68.5.IEA.2021.An energy sector roadmap to carbon neutrality in China.https:/www.iea.org/reports/an-energysector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-china.6.Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Develop

214、ment,Tsinghua University.2022.Comprehensive Report on Chinas 2035 and Medium-and Long-term Low-carbon Development Strategy towards Carbon Neutrality.7.Huang,Y.S.and S.J.Liu.2020.Chinese Green Hydrogen Production Potential Development:A Provincial Case Study.IEEE ACCESS 8:.52AnniversaryS

215、pecial Editionthhydrogen production;At the same time,considering the technological advances of offshore wind,the potential of renewable energy hydrogen production in some eastern coastal regions such as Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shanghai,and Shandong will likely increase significantly by 2030.4)Carbon stora

216、ge potentialBy 2060,the majority of the remaining long-process steel smelting equipment will need to be equipped with carbon capture and storage devices,and the long-process steelmaking capacity of the steel industry will be more concentrated in areas with carbon sequestration capacity.According to

217、the analysis results of Wei et al.(2021)8,based on the source-sink matching method,low-cost crude steel enterprises are mainly distributed in and near the Bohai Bay,Junggar District,Jianghan,Ordos and other basins(Figure 2-8f).Where there is a concentrated number of crude steels with a high CO2 emis

218、sion and suitable conditions for storage(storage capacity and injection).5)Market demandSteel demand is closely related to industries such as construction,machinery,automobiles,energy,home appliances and shipbuilding,and largely echoing the process of industrialization and urbanization of different

219、regions.The production layout of Chinas steel industry has long shown the characteristics of north heavy and south light(Figure 2-8g),and a large number of domestic steel products are sold from the north to the south.At present,large steel enterprises such as Angang Iron and Steel,Bengang and Shouga

220、ng in Northeast and North China regard East China and Zhongnan as key domestic steel sales areas(China Iron and Steel Association,20219).Looking forward to 2035,China will basically achieve socialist modernization,urbanization rate will reach a new high,basically achieve new industrialization and ur

221、banization,under the carbon peak,carbon neutrality goal constraints for various industries,steel consumption will go into a downward range.By 2060,affected by product iteration,non-metallic material substitution,and other factors,Chinas traditional steel industry will undergo unpredictable changes,s

222、teel 8.Wei et al.2021.CCUS Assessment of carbon reduction potential of crude steel production in China.Chinese Environmental Science,41(12):5866-58749.China Iron and Steel Association.2021.China Steel Industry Development Report.Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press.532022Chinas Resources,Energy and

223、Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industryconsumption will be significantly lower than 2035,and it is expected that crude steel consumption will drop to about 350 to 800 million tons in 206010.6)Environment capacity Environmental factors such as air quali

224、ty are the main factors affecting the layout of Chinas steel industry in the near and medium term,and will continue to play an important role in the future.Chinas steel industry is densely distributed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions,which are also the most polluted areas

225、 in China.Steel companies in these regions are facing more stringent pressure on backward steel production capacity.Figure 2-8 Main influencing factors by province11 10.LI J.,XIE C.,CAI W.,WANG C.2022.Low Carbon Development Pathway of Chinas Iron and Steel Industry under the Vision of Carbon Neutral

226、ityConsensus and Uncertainty.Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,14(01):48-53.11.Source:Steel production is quoted from the National Bureau of Statistics;Iron ore production is quoted from China Business Intelligence Network;Steel consumption and scrap resource generation are provided by the

227、 authors of the paper;Renewable electricity development potential includes hydropower,wind power and photovoltaics,which quoted from the National Energy Administration(2020)and Wang et al.(2022);Matched CCS potential quoted from Wei et al(2021).a.Crude steel production（2020）b.Iron ore production(202

228、0)c.Scrap steel(2020)d.Hydropower potentiale.Wind and centralized solar power potentialf.Matched CCS potentialg.Steel consumption(2020)54AnniversarySpecial Editionth(3)Projection of the trend of the regional layout of the steel industryA suitability assessment was conducted based on TOPSIS(Technique

229、 for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)method.It is found that the Hebei and Shandong will face a relatively strict withdrawal scale in steel production capacity.The capacity may be transferred from these overly concentrated areas in the form of electric furnace short process and h

230、ydrogen metallurgy to the southwest,northwest and south China coastal areas.It is projected that by 2060,the dominant technology will be electric furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy in northwest China,and that will be electric furnace steelmaking in southwest China.CCS technology will accoun

231、t for a relatively high proportion in the eastern and northeast regions(Figure 2-9).Figure 2-9 Proportion of steel industry technology in 2060 by region(4)Policy recommendationsFirst,the state guides the industrial layout of the steel industry in an orderly manner based on the industrial foundation,

232、scrap steel resources,green power and green hydrogen energy guarantee,carbon storage potential,market demand,and environmental capacity.Second,each region formulates a low-carbon transformation path for the steel industry considering its own characteristics and local conditions.The eastern region sh

233、ould strengthen the reduction of the steel industry and take multiple measures to promote the low-carbon transformation 552022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industryof the steel industry through process reengineering,fuel su

234、bstitution,and raw material substitution.The central region is limited to regional market capacity and resource and energy support,and the steel industry is laid out in accordance with the market-oriented trend.Relying on their own renewable energy resources and carbon sequestration potential,the so

235、uthwest and northwest regions give priority to undertaking the transfer of production capacity in other regions in the form of electric furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy to meet the regional market demand.Third,encourage cross-regional steel capacity replacement,and the cross-regional capa

236、city replacement policy is tilted towards electric furnace steelmaking,hydrogen metallurgy,and steel production with CCS projects.4.Research ProspectsFurther resource and technology evaluation of low-carbon steel transformation in the subregion needs to be carried out,including the sub-regional scra

237、p steel resources and the sub-regional application potential of low-carbon/carbon-negative technologies such as electric furnace steelmaking,hydrogen metallurgy,and CCS.In terms of CCS evaluation of the steel industry,considering the layout of Chinas inland carbon sequestration potential and the ste

238、el industry,there will be a mismatch in the spatial distribution in some regions(for example,Guangdong has limited inland carbon sequestration potential,while the steel industry is more developed),which will strengthen the evaluation of offshore carbon sequestration potential in the eastern coastal

239、areas.In order to further refine the composition of low-carbon/carbon-negative technologies and energy consumption in the steel industry in the subregion.56AnniversarySpecial Editionth5.Members of the Research TeamNameTitle/Team RoleAffiliation1Chang ShiyanAssociate ProfessorInstitute of Energy,Envi

240、ronment and Economy&Tsinghua Rio Tinto Centre,Tsinghua University2LI BingSenior Engineer/Director of the CentreLow-carbon development centre,China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute3Ma SiningPhD candidateInstitute of Energy,Environment and Economics,Tsinghua University4Zhang Lina

241、EngineerLow-carbon Development Center,China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute5Deng HaohuaEngineerDepartment of Metallurgy,China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute6Yang ChaoUndergraduate studentDepartment of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University572022Chinas

242、Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry1.Research BackgroundIn the context of Chinas carbon peaking and carbon neutrality pledge,the common consensus among academia and industry is that the steel industry should undertake deep deca

243、rbonization to synergistically achieve the setout climate and environmental goals.For the carbon peaking,the characteristics and external policy landscape of the steel industry both require controlled production capacity.Looking at the internal characteristics,Chinas future steel demand generally se

244、es a downward trend,with many studies suggest that Chinas crude steel production will peak by 2025 and then enter a phase of steady decline;second,the production process mainly based on long-process blast furnaces(BF)gradually upgrade to advanced processes such as short-process electric furnaces(EF)

245、and hydrogen steelmaking;third,the average operating life of existing facilities are relatively short,policies are needed to promote their early retirement.In order Topic 2:Demand Estimation and Plant-Level Low-carbon Transition Pathway towards Carbon Neutrality in Chinas Steel Industry58Anniversary

246、Special Editionthto achieve economic transition,environmental protection and low carbon goals,China has issued a series of policy documents since 2013 requiring the steel industry to reduce excess and backward production capacity.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the early retirement of carbon-in

247、tensive capacities in the steel industry through policy measures.However,the existing studies have paid less attention to the issue of integrating efficiency and equity factors into a scientifically-designed retirement strategy of carbon-intensive capacity.The capacity retirement strategy needs to p

248、ay attention to both its potential environmental benefits to maximize the policy benefits and the economic and employment impacts of capacity retirement on each province to achieve an equitable low-carbon transition in the steel industry among regions.2.Research MethodsThis study aims to propose a r

249、etirement strategy for the carbon-intensive capacities(meaning BFs)while balancing policy effectiveness and impacts on regional equity,combining top-down demand forecasting with bottom-up comprehensive performance assessment of BF capacity to identify the scale and roadmap of the retirement in a car

250、bon-neutral scenario.The specific research contents and methods of this topic are as follows(as shown in Figure 2-10).1)Predict the actual demand for steel in China based on stock-based and consumption-side dynamic material flow analysis,including:the scale of capacity,the amount of available scrap

251、resources and recycling rate,and the share of EF steel production from 2020 to 2060.2)Build a holistic database of Chinese iron and steel production facilities by matching multiple data sources,validation and accounting,and calculate the Carbon-Water-Health Comprehensive Performance Index(CPI)of BFs

252、 based on their carbon emissions,water consumption and air pollutant emissions with different index weights.3)Combining the two above,we propose a performance-based retirement strategy for BF capacity in Chinas iron and steel industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period based on CPI rankings.59202

253、2Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry4)Considering an equitable distribution of inter-provincial capacity retirement burden,after allocating proportion of the retirement capacity to each province,the trade-off between env

254、ironmental benefits and distributional impacts of capacity retirement is explored,followed with a proposed optimized capacity retirement strategy to improve benefits and equity.Figure 2-10 Topic 2 Research Roadmap3.Key Findings and Policy Recommendations(1)Capacity distribution and environmental per

255、formance of Chinas steel industryFigure 2-11 shows the regional distribution and environmental impact of the current capacity(BF and EF)in Chinas steel industry.As seen from the figure,the current steel capacity is concentrated in northern China provinces such as Hebei,Tianjin and Shandong.The SO2,N

256、Ox,PM,CO2 emissions and water consumption per unit of crude steel output vary widely,with the ranges of 0.12-1.04kg SO2/ton steel,0.26-1.64kg NOx/ton steel,0.08-1.39kg PM/ton steel,1.01-2.95t CO2/ton steel and 1.03-5.87t water/ton steel,respectively.60AnniversarySpecial Editionth Figure 2-11 Regiona

257、l Distribution and Environmental Impact of Active CapacityFigure 2-12 shows the CPI of BFs considering carbon-water-health impacts.As shown in the figure,the BFs with poor performance(i.e.,higher in the CPI)are mainly located in western and northern China provinces,and the BFs with good integrated p

258、erformance(i.e.,lower in the CPI)are often found in southern China provinces.Figure 2-12 China BF Comprehensive Performance Index(Carbon-Water-Health Weighting Equally)612022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry1)Chinas Cr

259、ude Steel Demand and the Proportion of Electric Furnace Steel between 2020-2060Chinas crude steel demand and production will see continuous decline,while the proportion of EFs will see continuous increase.Crude steel production will gradually decline from 1,064 million tons in 2020 to 977,730 and 61

260、2 million tons by 2030,2050 and 2060,respectively.While the proportion of EF steel will gradually rise from 10.3%in 2020 to 19.9%,41%and 53.2%by 2030,2050 and 2060(as shown in Figure 2-13 shown).Figure 2-13 Chinas Crude Steel Production and Electric Furnace Steel Ratio Forecast from 2020 to 20602)Co

261、mprehensive Performance Index-based Retirement Strategy for Chinas Steel Blast Furnace Capacity and its Impacts during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period Considering different scenarios of existing capacity retirement and replacement,China needs to retire 98-286 million tons of BF capacity(192 million t

262、ons on average)in the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Under the scenario of retiring 192 million tons of BF capacity,the CPI-based retirement strategy indicates that BF capacity to be retired is concentrated in Hebei(82.48 million tons),Tianjin(24.27 million tons),Shanghai(20.9 million tons),Sichuan(18.2

263、8 million tons),Shandong(16.2 million tons),and Xinjiang(14.75 million tons)Provinces(as shown in Figure 2-14).BF capacity early retirement will result in multifaceted benefits including carbon emission reduction,air pollutant emission reduction and health co-benefits,and water stress relief.However

264、,different retirement strategies vary in environmental benefits.Traditional capacity retirement 62AnniversarySpecial Editionthstrategies are generally based on either the year of operation(i.e.,prioritizing the retirement of those with longer years of operation)or the size of capacity(i.e.,prioritiz

265、ing the retirement of those with smaller capacity).In this study,we calculate the scale of capacity retirement and environmental benefits under the above two traditional strategies and compare them with the proposed CPI-based strategy.The results show that the environmental benefits of the CPI-based

266、 strategy are generally better than the traditional operating year-based or capacity-based retirement strategy,given the retirement scale,as shown in Figure 2-15.Figure 2-15 Improvement in Carbon-Water-Health Benefits for Different Retirement Scale under CPI-based Retirement Strategy Against Traditi

267、onal StrategiesFigure 2-14 The Scale of BF Capacity Retirement by Province under ComprehensivePerformance Index-based Strategy632022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry3)Incorporating Provincial Equity into the Optimizati

268、on of BF Capacity Retirement StrategyAlthough the CPI-based capacity retirement strategy is very likely to outperform the traditional strategies in terms of environmental benefits,the strategy allocates a significant proportion of capacity to be retired to a few provinces,exacerbating inter-provinci

269、al equity in terms of capacity retirement responsibilities compared with the traditional schemes.Figure 2-16 shows the Gini Coefficient7 of capacity retirement under the three retirement strategies,and the results show that the Gini Coefficient of the CPI-based strategy is higher than those of the t

270、raditional strategies given the retirement scale.Figure 2-16 Inter-Provincial Inequity(Expressed as Gini Coefficients)in Capacity Retirement for the Three Retirement Strategies at Different ScalesIn order to improve the inter-provincial equity,we propose that a certain proportion of the total capaci

271、ty to be retired can be allocated to each province(proportionally to its total capacity),applying the CPI-based strategy,while the rest of the capacity to be retired is still selected nationwide.The results are shown in Figure 2-17.When the proportion exceeds 50%,the improved 7.Gini coefficient(rang

272、e:0-1)was originally used to quantitatively depict the equity of income or wealth distribution.The higher the Gini Coefficient value,the unfairer the income or wealth distribution.In this study,the Gini coefficient of BF retirement is used to evaluate the equity of the distribution of capacity retir

273、ement among provinces i.e.The higher the Gini Coefficient value,the unfairer the distribution of capacity retirement among provinces.64AnniversarySpecial Editionthscheme outperforms the traditional strategies and original CPI-based strategy(i.e.proportion=0)in terms of both environmental benefits an

274、d inter-provincial equity,and can achieve a win-win situation of both benefits and equity,as shown in the gray area of Figure 2-17.Figure 2-17 Improvement in Environmental Benefits and Equity Given a Proportion of Capacity to be Proportionally Allocated to Each Province(green line and dots)under the

275、 CPI-based Strategy(192 Million Tons Capacity to be Retired)4)Policy Recommendations for Low-Carbon Transition of Chinas Steel IndustryFirst,promote the optimization of BF capacity and promote the deployment of EF to synergistically strengthen pollution and carbon emission reduction and enhance the

276、overall benefits of early carbon peaking in Chinas steel industry.Since the twenty-first century,Chinas rapid social and economic development has triggered significant increase in steel demand in construction,transportation and machinery sectors,giving rise to the expansion of a large number of stee

277、l enterprises,resulting in excess production capacity,this has seriously undermined the sustainable development of the steel industry.In response,China has introduced a series of initiatives to phase out excess capacity,by eliminating a number of technically inferior and emission-intensive capacity

278、in order to raise the capacity utilization rate to a healthy level.However,recent years have seen a slow-down in Chinas urbanization,per capita steel stock increase,and steel demand increase.In addition,Chinas BF-dominated steel production structure remains pollution,energy and carbon-intensive.The

279、cleaner,energy-efficient and low-carbon EF capacity accounts for only 10%,far below that of developed regions and countries such as Europe and the United States.Main limiting factor is 652022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal In

280、dustrythe limited supply of scrap resources,but as China enters a slower development stage and optimizes the scrap recycling system,the supply of scrap resources will increase.In order to synergistically achieve pollution control and climate targets,it is necessary for China to introduce combined in

281、centive-based and mandatory measures to promote the adjustment of BF capacity and the development of EF capacity.Specifically,China should strictly limit the growth of BF capacity,actively replace BF with EF,and promulgate a policy package including carbon market coverage expansion to the steel indu

282、stry and transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control.Secondly,support the innovation and R&D of deep decarbonization technologies such as hydrogen metallurgy,CCS and biochar steelmaking,and analyze the spatial layout of deep decarbonization technologies.The current decarbon

283、ization actions for Chinas steel industry are mainly focused on capacity management,energy efficiency improvement and EF development.However,towards the long-term goal of carbon neutrality,achieving near-zero emissions in the steel industry still requires the large-scale application of deep decarbon

284、ization technologies such as hydrogen metallurgy,CCUS and biochar steelmaking.Therefore,it is necessary to advance the innovation and deployment of these technologies.On the one hand,encourage the R&D and piloting of key technologies through incentive policy instruments to promote collaborative inno

285、vation between industry and academia and strengthen the role of enterprises in technology innovation.On the other hand,conduct systematic analysis of the multidimensional socioeconomic,ecological and environmental impacts of the large-scale application of different deep decarbonization technologies,

286、taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of resource endowment,in order to identify the prioritized areas for the deployment of decarbonization technologies in the iron and steel industry and promote disruptive decarbonization technologies from pilot demonstrations to large-scale application.4.

287、Research OutlookIn the next phase of research,we propose to conduct study on the optimal regional layout of steel production capacity based on carbon and environmental constraints.Specifically,in the context of carbon neutrality,disruptive zero-carbon steelmaking technologies see a wide range of 66A

288、nniversarySpecial Editionthapplication prospects,providing new momentum to the development of the steel industry.Include hydrogen-based steelmaking,CCUS,and biochar steelmaking.However,the development of these technologies depends on key spatial elements such as wind and solar potential,land and bio

289、mass resources,and carbon capture and storage locations.Future steel capacity replacement and construction should incorporate the above factors,so as to optimize the spatial layout picture of Chinas steel industry.5.Members of the Research TeamNAMETITLEAFFILIATIONWenjia CaiAssociate professorDepartm

290、ent of Earth System Science,Tsinghua UniversityXueqin CuiPostdoctoralDepartment of Earth System Science,Tsinghua UniversityZhao LiuPostdoctoralDepartment of Earth System Science,Tsinghua UniversityShihui ZhangPostdoctoralDepartment of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University Ruiyao LiPhD studentDepa

291、rtment of Earth System Science,Tsinghua UniversityJin LiPhD studentSchool of Environment,Tsinghua UniversityCangyang XieMaster studentSchool of Environment,Tsinghua University672022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry1.Re

292、search Background1)Carbon emission reduction in the steel industry is crucial to achieving the double carbon goal.As an energy-intensive industry,the steel industry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions,and the carbon reduction or even de-carbonization of the industry is crucial to achi

293、eving the double carbon goal.2)The steel industry needs to thoroughly explore low and zero carbon technology pathways.The current technological innovation in Chinas steel industry to promote the realization of double carbon goal is confronted with three challenges:the difficult to reverse long-estab

294、lished coal-coke production method in the steel industry in the short term;the significant reduction in Topic 3:Low-Carbon Technologies in the Steel Industry:Identification,Evaluation and Application Prospects68AnniversarySpecial Editionthenergy consumption in Chinas steel industry,leaving little ro

295、om for further improvement;the policy of restricting production capacity in Chinas steel industry makes it difficult to meet the requirements of high-quality economic development.3)There is an urgent need to judge the maturity,application potential and effectiveness of the technology selected.Techno

296、logical innovation often comes with risks,and steel companies must carefully evaluate and weigh various technology options from a full industry chain perspective.For policy makers,develop a deep understanding into steel carbon-neutral related technologies to form a concise and comprehensive developm

297、ent picture will help in formulating policies that meet the needs of the industry.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the maturity of low-carbon technologies,analyze the effects of their application,and use it to design a roadmap for technological innovation development.2.Research MethodsThe key r

298、esearch revolves around is the evaluation of major emission reduction technology innovations in each link of the whole steel industry chain,corresponding to the following research ideas:first,identifying the major technology innovation options in the steel industry by means of literature research an

299、d enterprise research;second,assessing the maturity of low-carbon technologies and the performance of carbon reduction costs and green premiums by combining the academic progress and industry status quo;Thirdly,establish life cycle analysis database for the steel industry and build relevant analysis

300、 model to assess the feasibility and benefits of each technology application.As shown in Figure 2-18,the following studies were conducted based on the existing hydrogen energy life cycle analysis and steel carbon reduction technology research:1)Identify technologically innovative solutions and track

301、 enterprises technological progresses.This part mainly adopts the methods of literature research and enterprise research.On the 692022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industryone hand,fully identifying and summarizing the exis

302、ting technical solutions in the steel industry(mainly hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS),focuses on investigating various technical parameters and organizing and analyzing data and information;on the other hand,follow up and establish the technical progress of major international and domestic steel enter

303、prises(e.g.ArcelorMittal,Baowu,etc.)and steel abatement technology supply companies(e.g.Tenova-HYL,MIDREX).2)Build life cycle analysis database and model for technology assessment.This section focuses on the metallurgical database required to analyze the smelting process by relying on the whole life

304、 cycle analysis method and establishing a matching life cycle analysis model for steel metallurgy to measure and analyze the carbon footprint of different technology routes.The metallurgical database includes the consumption and generation of main materials,auxiliary materials,by-products and their

305、end-use status and the substituted raw materials as well as their own life-cycle energy consumption status,as well as the detailed framework of smelting equipment/processes and process fuel types and consumption.3)Conducting cluster analysis of enterprises and abatement technologies,analyzing techno

306、logy application and scenarios.This section combines the results of steel industry research and technology evaluation,based on plant-level data mining and combing,and further conducting clustering analysis of enterprises/technologies;Then,design and evaluate the technology strategy from the perspect

307、ive of the enterprise,and identify the advantage utilization scenarios of each technology from the perspective of technology.4)In-depth integration of Chinas status-quo,establish technology development roadmap,and formulate policy recommendations.Based on the first three parts of the study,we will c

308、onsider the socio-economic development of China,the status-quo of steel enterprises as well as the technology assessment results,consider the risk of industry development and the cost of low carbon technology application,and formulate a technology development roadmap for the industry.70AnniversarySp

309、ecial Editionth Figure 2-18 Content Framework and Technology Roadmap3.Key Findings and Policy Recommendations1)Life cycle carbon emission analysis of different processes of steel productionAs shown in Figure 2-19,the GHG emissions of conventional steelmaking technologies(blast furnace-converter,blas

310、t furnace-converter hydrogenated,scrap/iron electric arc furnace,pure scrap electric arc furnace),hydrogenated/pure hydrogen direct reduced iron(DRI)technologies and fossil fuel DRI(coke oven gas-based DRI,coal-based DRI,Natural gas DRI designed by MIDREX,natural gas DRI designed by ENEFARM)that can

311、 be used as a transition technology were analyzed for GHG emissions.712022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal IndustryThe hydrogenation/pure hydrogen direct reduction iron technology is subdivided into three technology subcategor

312、ies:all-hydrogen smelting(using hydrogen as reductant and fuel),partial hydrogen smelting(using hydrogen as reductant only),and natural gas DRI hydrogenation.The results of the whole life cycle analysis show that the main greenhouse gases(containing CO2,N2O and CH4)emitted by the pure hydrogen DRI r

313、oute are comparable to the current scrap-electric arc furnace route,and that DRI as an intermediate product has the potential to be inter-substituted with scrap in electric furnaces.However,if the required reaction heat for the pure hydrogen DRI route is supplied by fossil fuels,the full life-cycle

314、carbon emissions of this route are similar to those of the fossil fuel DRI route.Figure 2-19 Life cycle GHG emission results(a)Emissions(b)Share of emissions by stage72AnniversarySpecial Editionth2)Analysis of the prospects and impacts of hydrogen metallurgy through scenariosScenarios with different

315、 levels of future scrap recycling are set up to analyze the potential of hydrogen energy steelmaking technology to reduce emissions in the Chinese steel industry.Preliminary results show that the interaction between future scrap recycling and steel demand will determine the development potential of

316、DRI.In a combined scenario where scrap recycling is more desirable and crude steel demand will decline,the amount of crude steel produced by ironmaking using direct reduction technology in China is expected to reach a level of 100 to 200 million tons in the decade from 2050 to 2060.3)It is recommend

317、ed that the deployment of key common technologies for low-carbon development in the steel industry should be accelerated in the research and development process.It is recommended to increase investment in research and development of basic,forward-looking and key common technologies.Targeted and focu

318、sed organizations should be promoted to facilitate the research and development of low-carbon and zero-carbon ironmaking technologies and industrialization application work.Especially for the disruptive and revolutionary process technology represented by hydrogen metallurgy and carbon utilization te

319、chnology represented by CCUS,carrying out systematic research on the whole process and the whole industry chain around the basic theory,process route,equipment manufacturing and system integration is needed to overcome the technical barriers in low-carbon steel production.4.Research OutlookIn the ne

320、xt phase,both micro-detailed and macro-comprehensive studies will be conducted on the cost of abatement and green premium of low-carbon technologies for steel.Micro focus on individual technology lines,macro focus on industry-wide technology strategy,including research on technology penetration,inve

321、stment scale,technological progress,etc.732022Chinas Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry5.Members of the Research TeamNAMETITLEAFFILIATIONXunmin OuAssociate ProfessorInstitute of Energy and Environmental Economics,Tsinghua Univ

322、ersity Lei RenPhD studentInstitute of Energy and Environmental Economics,Tsinghua University Jianzhe Liu Master studentInstitute of Energy and Environmental Economics,Tsinghua University Zeyu ChenMaster studentInstitute of Energy and Environmental Economics,Tsinghua University74AnniversarySpecial Ed

323、itionth1.Research BackgroundChinas steel producers face the multiple challenge of preparing for accounting methodologies such as MRV for domestic carbon market pilots and national carbon markets and other international carbon emissions accounting methods.As of the end of April of 2022,six steel indu

324、stry tailored accounting requirements(methodologies,guidelines,etc.)have been issued by various Chinese government bodies.In the meantime,the EU carbon market and the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism have also issued accounting requirements for the steel industry.This topic aims to analyze the

325、domestic carbon market and international carbon accounting requirements for the steel industry,and suggest directions for future improvements in the steel guidelines.Topic 4:Improvement in GHG Emission Accounting Methodology for Steel under Multiple Constraints752022Chinas Resources,Energy and Susta

326、inable Development:Special Report on Carbon Neutrality Strategy for Metal Industry2.Research MethodsResearch will be conducted on the GHG accounting methodologies for the steel industry in the carbon market,sorting out issues and trends.With additional research on the EU carbon market,the progress o

327、f the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and the requirements of accounting for steel producers.Investigating the production process and process characteristics of major steel producers in China,implementing interactive and visual computing procedures through the LEAP(Long Term Energy Alternative

328、 Planning System)model to improve the capacity building of carbon emission accounting for steel producers in China.Figure 2-20 Technology Roadmap76AnniversarySpecial Editionth3.Key Findings and Policy Recommendations1)Comparative Analysis of Domestic Steel Industry Accounting RequirementsChinas stee

329、l industry carbon emission accounting requirements analyzed in this study include:the GHG Emission Accounting Methodology and Reporting Guidelines for Chinas Iron and Steel Producers issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the national standard Requirements of the GHG emission A

330、ccounting and Reporting-Part 5:Iron and Steel Production Enterprise;the annual publication Supplementary Data Sheet on GHG Emission Reporting for Iron and Steel Producers(hereinafter referred to as the respective annual Supplementary Data Sheet)issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment;the a

331、ccounting guidelines for local carbon markets pilots,Methodology for Accounting and Reporting Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Iron and Steel Industry in Shanghai(Trial Implementation)and Guidelines for Reporting Carbon Dioxide Emission Information for Iron and Steel Enterprises in Guangdong Province

332、(revised in 2022).This section provides a comparative analysis of the above accounting methodologies,leading to the following conclusions:Relatively uniform steel production accounting methods.The emission factor method and the material balance method are commonly used.The emission factor method is

333、generally used for fossil fuel combustion and net purchased electricity and heat emissions,while the material balance method is generally used for carbon containing raw material input and output.There are existing theoretical and practical basis for emissions accounting by steel processes.Each guideline specifies the processes to be considered for iron and steel production,with the Shanghai guidel