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1、United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Coffee:World Markets and Trade Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription,click here to register:https:/ December 2022 India:Worlds Fifth-Largest Robusta Coffee Producer Indias Robusta coffee is fo
2、recast to increase 170,000 bags(60 kilograms)to 4.9 million in 2022/23 on continued yield gains and has been the worlds fifth-largest producer for several years after Vietnam,Brazil,Indonesia,and Uganda.Indias Arabica output is expected to total just 1.3 million bags,placing it behind 11 other produ
3、cers.Green coffee beans are expected to account for two-thirds of exports and soluble coffee one-third.Nearly half of total exports are destined for the European Union followed by Russia,Turkey,and Jordan.Karnataka accounts for over 50 percent of Indias coffee area,followed by Andhra Pradesh and Ker
4、ala.Collectively,these states account for 90 percent of planted area and 95 percent of production.Although total area is nearly evenly balanced between Arabica and Robusta coffee,Karnataka is tilted towards Robusta,Andhra Pradesh is primarily Arabica,and Kerala is predominantly Robusta.Total coffee
5、area expanded 13 percent in the last 10 years to 475,000 hectares to satisfy overseas demand,with most Arabica gains occurring in Andhra Pradesh and Robusta growth in Karnataka.During this same period at the national level,Arabica yields dropped by one-third due to pest and disease issues while Robu
6、sta yields steadily grew.Coffee production in India is labor-intensive because hilly terrain limits the use of mechanical harvesters.The industry provides direct employment to over 700,000 plantation workers and an additional 1.3 million downstream workers.However,rising off-farm employment opportun
7、ities have resulted in labor shortages during the harvest.As a result,labor costs have escalated and now account for more than 60 percent of total production costs.In response,growers have reduced the number of permanent laborers and utilized seasonal workers.Grower profit margins are also under pre
8、ssure from rising fertilizer,pesticide,and fuel costs.Worlds Top Robusta Producers Includes India-10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23Million 60 Kilogram Bags Other IndiaUgandaIndonesiaBrazilVietnam 2022/23 Coffee Overview World coffee production for 202
9、2/23 is forecast to rebound 6.6 million bags from the previous year to 172.8 million due primarily to Brazils Arabica crop entering the on-year of the biennial production cycle.Global consumption is expected to rise 800,000 bags to 167.9 million,with the largest gains in the European Union,the Unite
10、d States,and Brazil.World coffee bean exports are forecast 3.0 million bags lower to 116.1 million as losses in Brazil,Vietnam,and India more than offset gains in Honduras and Colombia.Ending stocks are expected 1.5 million bags higher to 34.1 million.Against this backdrop of an improving supply sit
11、uation,coffee prices as measured by the International Coffee Organization(ICO)monthly composite price index have dropped over 25 percent since February 2022.http:/www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp Vietnam production is forecast at 30.2 million bags,down 1.4 million from last years record harvest due to
12、reduced yields.Cultivated area is forecast unchanged from last year,with over 95 percent of total output remaining as Robusta.The rainy season started earlier than previous years which supported good flowering and cherry development.Wetter-than-normal conditions reduced irrigation needs and costs.Ho
13、wever,fertilizer prices skyrocketed as much as 70 percent in the last year.Farmers responded by reducing fertilizer use which is expected to lower yields and output from the previous year.Bean exports are forecast to decline 1.5 million bags to 24.5 million on lower available supplies,and ending sto
14、cks are expected to slip 200,000 bags to 3.1 million bags.-20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1802016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23Million 60 Kilogram BagsWorld Production Gains Driven by BrazilOtherBrazil-5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 452016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23Million 60 K
15、ilogram BagsCausing World Ending Stocks to RiseEnding StocksForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 December 2022Global Market Analysis Brazil Arabica output is forecast to rebound 3.4 million bags to 39.8 million.The majority of producing areas are in the on-year of the biennial production cycle,result
16、ing in higher production potential for the upcoming crop;however,this quantity is well below recent on-year crops that peaked at nearly 50 million bags.Arabica trees in many growing regions continued to recover from severe frosts in June and July 2021 as well as high temperatures and below-average r
17、ainfall that prevailed until September 2021.The Robusta harvest is forecast to continue expanding to reach a record 22.8 million bags,up 1.1 million,as favorable weather conditions and good crop management aided fruit settings and development in the main growing region of Espirito Santo.A marginal i
18、ncrease in harvested area also supports the expected gains.The combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast up 4.5 million bags to 62.6 million.Output gains are expected to rebuild stocks,resulting in bean exports dropping 2.6 million bags to 33.0 million.Colombia Arabica coffee production is fo
19、recast up 800,000 bags to 12.6 million bags on improving growing conditions.Last years output was hampered by excessive rains and cloud cover that disrupted the flowering process.Bean exports,mostly to the United States and European Union,are forecast 500,000 bags higher to 11.5 million bags on incr
20、eased supplies.Indonesia production is forecast to rise nearly 800,000 bags to 11.4 million.Robusta output is expected to reach 10.0 million bags on favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java where approximately 75 percent is grown.The main harvest season in south
21、ern Sumatra began on time in March and ended in July 2022.Arabica production is also expected to rise slightly to 1.4 million bags.Bean exports are forecast to gain 300,000 bags to 6.6 million on increased supplies.European Union imports are forecast down 2.1 million bags to 44.5 million and account
22、 for 40 percent of the worlds coffee bean imports.Top suppliers include Brazil(40 percent),Vietnam(20 percent),Uganda(8 percent),and Honduras(7 percent).Ending stocks are expected to drop 1.0 million bags to 13.0 million to support a modest increase in consumption.The United States imports the secon
23、d-largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast down 500,000 bags to 24.8 million.Top suppliers include Brazil(30 percent),Colombia(19 percent),Vietnam(10 percent),and Honduras(7 percent).Ending stocks are forecast down slightly to 6.1 million bags.Brazils On-Year Arabica Output Gains Forecast Belo
24、w Recent Peaks,Robusta to Reach Record05540455055 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23Million 60 Kilogram Bags Arabica RobustaOn-YearOn-YearOn-YearOn-YearForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 December 2022Global Market Analysis Revised 2021/22 World production is lowered
25、1.0 million bags from the June 2022 estimate to 166.2 million.Colombia is 1.2 million bags lower to 11.8 million due to excessive rain and cloud cover which lowered yields.Honduras is revised 600,000 bags lower to 4.8 million as leaf rust lowered yields more than expected.India is raised 400,000 bag
26、s to 5.9 million due to greater area harvested.Cote dIvoire is up 300,000 bags to 1.1 million bags due to higher yields.World bean exports are revised up 1.8 million bags to 119.1 million.Brazil is up 1.6 million bags to 35.6 million as logistical bottlenecks slowed trade less than was previously ex
27、pected.India is raised 1.1 million bags to 4.9 million on higher-than-anticipated stocks drawdown as well as improved output.Honduras is lowered 600,000 bags to 4.6 million on reduced exportable supplies.Colombia is down 800,000 bags to 11.0 million on reduced exportable supplies.World bean imports
28、are revised up 4.3 million bags to 117.0 million.European Union is raised 1.6 million bags to 46.6 million on a higher build-up of stocks.China is up 400,000 bags to 1.7 million bags on rising consumption.Colombia is 400,000 bags higher to 2.0 million on stronger shipments from Peru and Honduras.Wor
29、ld ending stocks are revised down 100,000 bags to 32.6 million.European Union is up 1.2 million bags to 14.0 million.The United States is up 200,000 bags to 6.4 million bags.Brazil is down 1.7 million bags to 500,000.The next release of this publication will be on June 22,2023.For additional informa
30、tion,please contact Tony Halstead(202-720-4620,Tony.Halsteadusda.gov).The Coffee:World Markets and Trade circular is based on reports from FAS Overseas Posts and on available secondary information.The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at:https:/gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.
31、aspx.Please visit https:/www.fas.usda.gov/data/coffee-world-markets-and-trade to view archived reports.PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available online at:https:/www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Coffee website at:https:/www.fas.usda.gov/commodit
32、ies/coffee for additional data and analysis.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 December 2022Global Market AnalysisApril-MarchJuly-JuneOctober-SeptemberAngolaBrazilCameroonBoliviaCubaCentral African RepublicBurundiDominican RepublicColombiaEcuadorHaitiCongo(Kinshasa)IndonesiaPhilippinesCosta RicaMad
33、agascarTanzaniaCote dIvoirePapua New GuineaEl SalvadorPeruEthiopiaRwandaGhanaGuatemalaGuineaHondurasIndiaJamaicaKenyaLaosLiberiaMalawiMalaysiaMexicoNicaraguaNigeriaPanamaSierra LeoneThailandTogoUgandaUnited StatesVenezuelaVietnamYemenNon-producing countries are on an October-September marketing year
34、.Marketing Years for Producing CountriesForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 December 2022Global Market AnalysisCoffee SummaryThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2018/192019/202020/212021/22Jun2022/23Dec2022/23 Arabica Productionnone49,700 Brazil42,00049,70036,40041,50039,80013,870 Colombia14,10013,40011,80013,
35、00012,6007,350 Ethiopia7,4757,6008,1508,2508,2507,100 Honduras5,2006,5004,8006,0006,0004,390 Peru3,9253,3694,2004,2004,2003,520 Guatemala3,5153,8103,7003,6003,6003,100 Mexico3,1503,0003,6503,3003,3002,900 Nicaragua2,6752,5502,6802,6802,6801,925 China2,0001,8001,7002,0001,8001,250 Costa Rica1,4661,47
36、21,2751,3651,3651,200 Indonesia1,2501,3001,2801,3501,3501,583 India1,4501,6501,1701,3201,3201,064 Vietnam1,1009501,1001,1001,0201,050 Uganda1,025730950900900850 Kenya7506508507008004,124 Other3,8653,5963,6993,7393,689104,976 Total94,946102,07787,40495,00492,674Robusta Productionnone29,336 Vietnam30,
37、20028,05030,48029,80029,20016,800 Brazil18,50020,20021,70022,80022,8009,400 Indonesia9,4509,4009,30010,00010,0003,600 Uganda4,4505,9005,3005,7505,7503,742 India3,5173,9174,7504,4204,9202,100 Malaysia1,9002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000 Cote dIvoire1,7759101,1258001,050650 Thailand700600650700700450 Mexico
38、550530540545545600 Tanzania6006505505255252,302 Other2,4922,4072,3752,6062,58670,980 Total74,13474,56478,77079,94680,076Productionnone66,500 Brazil60,50069,90058,10064,30062,60030,400 Vietnam31,30029,00031,58030,90030,22013,870 Colombia14,10013,40011,80013,00012,60010,600 Indonesia10,70010,70010,580
39、11,35011,3507,350 Ethiopia7,4757,6008,1508,2508,2504,650 Uganda5,4756,6306,2506,6506,6505,325 India4,9675,5675,9205,7406,2407,100 Honduras5,2006,5004,8006,0006,0004,390 Peru3,9253,3694,2004,2004,2003,550 Mexico3,7003,5304,1903,8453,8453,770 Guatemala3,6453,9303,8303,7303,7302,950 Nicaragua2,7552,650
40、2,7802,8002,7802,100 Malaysia1,9002,0002,0002,0002,0001,925 China2,0001,8001,7002,0001,8001,250 Costa Rica1,4661,4721,2751,3651,3651,300 Tanzania1,2501,3501,2001,1501,1502,000 Cote dIvoire1,7759101,1258001,050850 Kenya750650850700800965 Papua New Guinea825700750800750650 Thailand700600650700700654 E
41、l Salvador5575585 Venezuela550480500500500375 Laos440485465485485425 Philippines450425450475475450 Cameroon4754003754504501,972 Other2,2472,0532,0492,1852,185175,956 Total169,080176,641166,174174,950172,750Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),Apr
42、il(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.To access a complete dataset for each country,please visit:http:/apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspxForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 December 2022Global Market AnalysisCoffee Summary,
43、ContinuedThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2018/192019/202020/212021/22Jun2022/23Dec2022/23 Bean Exportsnone37,379 Brazil36,19041,68935,57635,00033,00025,618 Vietnam24,52622,45026,00025,00024,50012,400 Colombia11,77011,50011,00011,80011,5004,907 Indonesia6,0966,4666,3196,5006,6004,450 Uganda5,3506,5146,1206,
44、5206,5206,910 Honduras4,9006,0104,6005,6005,6004,174 Ethiopia4,1354,6754,8004,7254,7253,936 India3,3993,8184,9203,9204,1704,293 Peru3,7203,3264,0654,1004,1003,600 Guatemala3,2113,6753,4003,4003,40013,606 Other13,08811,00812,30211,64511,945121,273 Total116,385121,131119,102118,210116,060Roast and Gro
45、und Exportsnone1,806 European Union2,2752,4002,5902,0002,0001,350 Switzerland1,5601,8701,8601,8001,800550 Vietnam550550600600650315 Colombia2250222 Mexico206252 China3 Indonesia565643505024 Brazil263254454540 Panama40303030305 Costa Rica0 Other,
46、390 Total4,9675,4875,7005,0125,132Soluble Exportsnone4,023 Brazil4,0403,9544,0554,0003,6003,125 Malaysia3,0002,7802,9753,0003,0002,150 Vietnam2,2502,3002,4002,5002,5001,838 India1,7821,9702,3102,0502,0501,160 European Union1,2151,4602,0501,5001,5001,200 Indonesia1,0001,3501,0501,1001,100943 Mexico94
47、58651,0501,1001,100900 Colombia1,0251,0101,1001,0001,000730 Thailand9058859901,0001,000410 Ecuador3704754 Other68769374362775217,227 Total17,21917,74219,13618,34218,067Exportsnone41,426 Brazil40,25645,67539,68539,04536,64528,318 Vietnam27,32625,30029,00028,10027,65013,615 Colombia13,00512
48、,75512,36513,00012,7506,150 Indonesia7,1527,8727,4127,6507,7504,450 Uganda5,3506,5146,1206,5206,5205,778 India5,1855,7947,2405,9756,2256,910 Honduras4,9006,0104,6005,6005,6004,174 Ethiopia4,1354,6754,8004,7254,7254,293 Peru3,7203,3264,0654,1004,1002,966 European Union3,4903,8604,6403,5003,50024,810
49、Other24,05222,57924,01123,34923,794142,890 Total138,571144,360143,938141,564139,259Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.Roasted coffee was convert
50、ed to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of roasted coffee by 1.19.Soluble coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of soluble coffee by 2.6.For each non-producing country,the trade balance between imports and exports is used in order to avoid doub
51、le-counting for these figures.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 December 2022Global Market AnalysisCoffee Summary,ContinuedThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2018/192019/202020/212021/22Jun2022/23Dec2022/23 Bean Importsnone45,890 European Union44,46043,87546,57546,00044,50027,150 United States23,90024,33525
52、,22525,50024,7507,370 Japan6,5506,5206,8006,9006,5003,070 Russia3,1803,3903,4002,8003,5002,810 Switzerland3,0303,4503,4003,4003,4002,480 Korea,South2,6602,6353,0152,7503,0003,135 Canada2,8352,8602,9402,9002,8003,175 United Kingdom2,6402,2702,7252,6002,7002,300 Algeria2,0002,2002,0502,0002,000975 Col
53、ombia8451,6702,0401,7001,90018,721 Other17,48317,90218,81218,00518,835117,076 Total109,583111,107116,982114,555113,885Roast and Ground Importsnone650 United Kingdom585580580600600370 United States360605580600600350 Canada480475550500525360 Ukraine450460450300450290 Korea,South320360390350400475 Russ
54、ia430460305350350250 China260309350300300165 Australia200205200200200150 Saudi Arabia0200500 Vietnam300200200200200720 Other7457829637878974,280 Total4,3204,6364,7784,3874,722Soluble Importsnone5,500 Philippines5,0005,5005,7005,5005,8001,400 Canada1,5151,6601,8401,7001,8001,525 China1,775
55、1,8202,1701,8001,800500 United States8005851,2351,0001,300983 Indonesia7667560 Japan630530500700500360 South Africa34751,400 Russia1,0400365 Ukraine400330425300400260 Argentina33752,942 Other3,9463,3993,9583,7163,76616,095 Total16,46715,64517,75316,76617,3
56、96Importsnone45,890 European Union44,46043,87546,57546,00044,50028,020 United States25,06025,52527,04027,10026,6508,320 Japan7,2907,1507,4157,7007,1006,100 Philippines5,6706,1806,5406,2006,5004,885 Canada4,8304,9955,3305,1005,1254,945 Russia4,6254,1654,0553,5504,2502,625 China2,9353,8044,1853,1003,8
57、003,875 United Kingdom3,8052,9553,9853,4503,6002,770 Korea,South2,9802,9953,4053,1003,4002,810 Switzerland3,0303,4503,4003,4003,40027,211 Other25,68526,29427,58327,00827,678137,451 Total130,370131,388139,513135,708136,003Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia)
58、,April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.Roasted coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of roasted coffee by 1.19.Soluble coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net w
59、eight of soluble coffee by 2.6.For each non-producing country,the trade balance between imports and exports is used in order to avoid double-counting for these figures.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 December 2022Global Market AnalysisCoffee Summary,ContinuedThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2018/192019/
60、202020/212021/22Jun2022/23Dec2022/23 Domestic Consumptionnone42,092 European Union40,26441,28641,70242,90042,00027,162 United States26,04925,93726,72326,80026,96823,200 Brazil22,99422,28022,34022,45022,4506,125 Philippines6,1206,6057,1906,7757,0757,897 Japan7,6107,3547,2107,9337,0004,885 Canada4,830
61、4,9955,3305,1005,1253,000 China3,6004,2004,8004,2004,8004,300 Indonesia4,9004,4504,7504,8004,7704,945 Russia4,6254,1654,0553,5504,2503,875 United Kingdom3,8052,9553,9853,4503,6003,193 Ethiopia3,1403,0003,3753,5003,5002,770 Korea,South2,9802,9953,4053,1003,4002,940 Vietnam3,1003,1003,2003,3003,3002,5
62、80 Mexico2,6202,5892,7122,7002,7002,040 Australia1,9602,0552,3052,2002,2001,925 Colombia1,7752,0802,1452,1502,1102,340 Algeria2,0402,2402,0902,0502,0501,460 Switzerland1,4701,5801,5401,6001,6001,205 Turkey1,2151,1651,2851,3001,3501,250 India1,1701,1801,2301,2351,320980 Saudi Arabia1,0401,2001,1851,3
63、001,3001,145 Ukraine1,2701,2351,2758501,250845 Morocco7950735 Argentina859789905850850800 Serbia80583573585085011,696 Other10,82510,74610,73111,14711,177165,385 Total161,776161,896167,183167,040167,945Ending Stocksnone14,332 European Union15,03813,76714,00012,36713,0007,352 United States6
64、,4026,0236,3786,5406,1005,056 Brazil2,3734,3905405,1114,120556 Vietnam2,1303,2803,2103,5153,0553,217 Japan2,8972,6932,8982,2002,9982,419 Indonesia2,2981,6691,0721,024937552 Colombia8521,23575048559593 China2981,0310 Tanzania280504480506506800 Philippines8008006005005002,436 Other2,8582,62
65、11,6501,7391,71637,123 Total36,22637,99932,56534,70434,114Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 December 2022Global Market Analysis