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1、JANUARY|2021Population Growth and Its Underlying FactorsPercentPopulationGrowthBirths Minus DeathsNetImmigration Projected0.50 0.5 1.0 1.520082002820332038204320482053The Demographic Outlook:2023 to 2053JANUARY|2023At a GlanceThe size of the U.S.population,as well as its age and sex compo
2、sition,affects the economy and the federal budget.For example,the size of the population ages 25 to 54affects the number of people employed;likewise,the size of the population age 65or older affects the number of beneficiaries of federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare.In this report,t
3、he Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections,which underlie the agencys baseline budget projections and economic forecast that will be published later this year.Population.In CBOs projections,the Social Security area populationthe relevant population for calculating Social Sec
4、urity payroll taxes and benefits and the measure of population used in this reportincreases from 336million people in 2023 to 373million people in 2053.As growth of the population age 65or older outpaces growth of younger age groups,the population is projected to continue to become older.Population
5、Growth.Population growth is generally projected to slow between 2023 and 2053,averaging 0.3percent per year over that period.That growth will be increasingly driven by immigration as fertility rates remain below the rate that would be required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absenc
6、e of immigration.Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population.The civilian noninstitutionalized population grows from 266million people in 2023 to 301million people in 2053,in CBOs projections,expanding by 0.4percent per year,on average.That measure,which CBO uses to project the size of the labor force,
7、is composed of people age 16or older.The subgroup of people ages 25 to 54(adults in their prime working years)grows at an average annual rate of 0.2percent over that periodmore slowly than in recent decades.(Over the past 40years,the civilian noninstitutionalized population as a whole grew at a rate
8、 of 1.1percent,and the prime working-age population grew at a rate of 0.9percent.)Changes Since Last Year.The population is projected to be larger(by 0.8percent in 2052,the final year of the projections that CBO released last year)and to grow slightly faster,on average,in this years projections,for
9、two main reasons.First,net immigration is projected to be higher,boosting the size and growth of the working-age population over the 20232053 period.Second,mortality rates for people age 65or older are projected to be lower over the first two decades of the projection period;that decline stems from
10、fewer deaths in 2022due to COVID-19infections than CBO previously projected.CBOs projections of the rates of fertility,mortality,and net immigration are uncertain.Small differences between CBOs projections of those rates and actual outcomes could compound over many years and significantly alter demo
11、graphic outcomes by the end of the projection period.www.cbo.gov/publication/58612ContentsThe Size and Age Composition of the Population 2Components of Total Population Growth 3Fertility 3Mortality 4Net Immigration 5Population Used to Project the Labor Force 6Changes to CBOs Population Projections S
12、ince Last Year 7Changes to Projected Fertility Rates 8Changes to Projected Mortality Rates 9Changes to Projected Net Immigration 10Changes Since Last Year in the Population Projections CBO Uses to Estimate the Size of the Labor Force 11About This Document 13Correction 14Notes and DefinitionsIn this
13、report,population refers to the Social Security area population,which includes all residents of the 50states and of the District of Columbia,as well as civilian residents of U.S.territories.It also includes federal civilian employees and members of the U.S.armed forces living abroad and their depend
14、ents,U.S.citizens living abroad,and noncitizens living abroad who are eligible for Social Security benefits on the basis of their earnings while in the United States.The Congressional Budget Offices estimate of the Social Security area population on January 1 of a given year is based on the populati
15、on on January1 of the previous year and the projected numbers of people who are born in or immigrate to the United States and who die in or emigrate from the United States during that year.The civilian noninstitutionalized population includes individuals who are 16years of age or older.It excludes m
16、embers of the armed forces on active duty and people in penal or mental institutions or in homes for the elderly or infirm.The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman would have if,in each year of her life,she experienced the birth rates observed or assumed for th
17、at year and if she survived her entire childbearing period(ages 14 through 49).CBO uses the term foreign-born people without legal status to refer to foreign-born people who entered the United States illegally or who entered legally with a temporary status and then remained after that legal status e
18、xpired;generally,such people are not authorized to work in the United States.Foreign-born people without legal status also include beneficiaries under Temporary Protected Status,beneficiaries under policies whereby the executive branch does not seek their immediate deportation(such as Deferred Actio
19、n for Childhood Arrivals),and people who are paroled and allowed into the country while awaiting deportation proceedings in immigration courts.Many of those people are authorized to work in the United States.Life expectancy is the amount of time that a person in a given year would expect to survive
20、on the basis of that years mortality rates for people of various ages,sometimes referred to as period life expectancy.(Cohort life expectancy,by contrast,incorporates projected changes in mortality rates and better reflects a persons actual life expectancy.)The mortality rate adjusted for age and se
21、x represents the rate that would be observed if the projected mortality rates by age and sex occurred in a population that had the same age and sex composition as the population in a reference year.For its reference population,CBO uses the population in 2010(the latest year for which the necessary d
22、ecennial census data were available when the projections in this report were made).The population projections in this report reflect developments through September30,2022.When comparing the current projections with previously published values,CBO analyzes differences for the years spanned by the pro
23、jections that were previously published.All figures in this report are CBOs projections using data from the Social Security Administration.The underlying data for those figures,as well as supplemental population projections,are posted along with the report on CBOs website(www.cbo.gov/publication/586
24、12#data).CBO has corrected this report since its original publication.The correction is listed at the end.The Demographic Outlook:2023 to 2053The size of the U.S.population,as well as its age and sex composition,affects the economy and the federal budget.For example,the number of people who are empl
25、oyed depends on the size of the working-age population,and the number of beneficiaries of federal programs(including Social Security and Medicare)depends on the size of the elderly population.To project the population in future years,the Congressional Budget Office starts with the most recent availa
26、ble historical data and then projects rates of fertility,mortality,and net immigration.The population as it is defined in this report is the relevant population for calculating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits,known as the Social Security area population.In CBOs projections,the population
27、increases from 336million people in 2023 to 373million people in 2053,growing by 0.3percent per year,on average,about one-third the pace experienced from 1983 to 2022(0.8percent).Over the next decade,immigration accounts for about three-quarters of the overall increase in the size of the population,
28、and the greater number of births than deaths accounts for the remaining one-quarter.After 2033,population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration,which accounts for all population growth beginning in 2042.CBOs projections of the population over the 20232053 period are highly uncertain,espec
29、ially in later years.If rates of fertility,mortality,or net immigration were higher or lower than in the agencys projections,then the resulting population would differ from the amounts shown here.The effects would be larger in later years of the projection period than in the earlier years because di
30、fferences in those rates compound in each year of the period.Demographic Factors That Determine Population GrowthPercentPopulationGrowthBirths Minus DeathsNetImmigration Projected0.50 0.5 1.0 1.520082002820332038204320482053By 2042,with the aging of the population,deaths exceed births in
31、CBOs projections.As a result,population growth after that point is driven entirely by immigration.2THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053 JANUARy 2023The Size and Age Composition of the PopulationThe population is projected to become older,on average,over the 20232053 period.In CBOs projections,the sh
32、are of people age 65or older rises as growth of that group outpaces growth of younger age groups.Population,by Age GroupMillions of People Projected05003003504001983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 Projected1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 Projected05003003504001983 1
33、993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 Projected1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053Total65 or Older55 to 6425 to 5424 or YoungerIn the agencys projections,the number of people ages 25 to 54,which partially determines the number of people employed,grows more slowly than the number of people age 65 or
34、older,who are less likely to work and who are generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare.Population Age 65 or Older as a Share of the Population Ages 25 to 64Percent Projected098332023203320432053The percentage of people age 65 or older relative to the number of people
35、 ages 25 to 64 is projected to rise from 34 percent in 2023 to 46 percent in 2053.3JANUARy 2023 THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053Components of Total Population GrowthPopulation growth is determined by births,deaths,and net immigration.In CBOs projections,fertility rates remain low,mortality rates
36、 generally continue to decline,and immigration becomes an increasingly important part of overall population growth.FertilityCBO projects fertility on the basis of its assessment of historical trends and other factors.For the 20years before the 20072009recession,the total fertility rate was 2.02child
37、ren per woman,on average.After peaking at 2.12in 2007,the rate generally fell,largely because of lower fertility rates among women age 24or younger.1 The rate equaled 1.64births per woman in 2020 and rose slightly to 1.66in 2021(the most recent year for which data were available when the projections
38、 were made).In CBOs projections,the total fertility rate remains at 1.66births per woman through 2023 and then rises as fertility rates among women ages 30 to 49increase.By 2030,the fertility rate is projected to be 1.75births per woman,where it remains through 2053.That rate is below the replacemen
39、t rate of 2.1births per womanthe fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration.Two key sources of uncertainty affect CBOs projections of fertility.First,if trends in fertility,such as the rising age of mothers and the delay of childbearing,differed
40、from CBOs projections,then the agencys projections of overall fertility rates and the age distribution of mothers would change.Second,significant uncertainty remains about the long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic on fertility rates.Fertility RatesBirths per Woman Projected00.51.01.52.02.519
41、8332023203320432053Total Fertility RateRate for Women Ages 30 to 49Rate for Women Ages 14 to 29In CBOs projections,fertility rates rise for women of relatively older childbearing ages and fall for women of relatively younger childbearing ages.That pattern is consistent with the trends of
42、delayed childbearing and rising average age of mothers.4THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053 JANUARy 2023MortalityUntil recently,mortality rates in the United States have generally declined(meaning that life expectancy has generally risen)since at least the early 20th century.For the most part,morta
43、lity rates have decreased more quickly for younger people than for older people.In recent years,though,the rate of decline has slowed,and mortality rates have increased for some groups,particularly younger people.For people ages 15 to 44,those increases have been driven primarily by deaths from suic
44、ide and drug overdoses(particularly opioids).2As a result of rising mortality rates,life expectancy at birth declined between 2015 and 2017,the first decreases in that metric since 1993.3 After increasing slightly from 2018 to 2019,life expectancy fell again in 2020,largely because of increases in m
45、ortality from COVID-19,unintentional injuries(including drug overdoses),heart disease,homicide,and diabetes.4 CBO projects mortality rates on the basis of its assessment of historical trends and then accounts for the effects of COVID-19.To account for recent trends in the rate of decline in mortalit
46、y,CBO projects that those rates will decrease from 2020 to 2024at roughly the same average rate as they did between 2010 and 2019.After 2024,mortality rates are projected to return to longer-term trends,declining at the average pace experienced between 1950 and 2019.The agency incorporated the effec
47、ts of COVID-19on mortality rates through 2043by increasing those rates for older people,who are more likely to die from that illness.Because projected mortality rates decline from 2023 to 2053,life expectancies at birth and at age 65 are projected to increase from 77.8years and 18.9years in 2023 to
48、82.3years and 21.8years,respectively,in 2053.The evolving effects of the pandemic on mortality are a significant source of uncertainty in CBOs projections of mortality rates.Changes in the total number of deaths from COVID-19or their age composition could affect outcomes significantly.Mortality Rate
49、,Adjusted for Age and Sex Deaths per 100,000 People Projected3005007009001,1001,3001,50033200432053In CBOs estimate,mortality rates increase in 2020 and 2021largely among people age 65 or olderbecause of additional deaths attributable to COVID-19.After 2021,mortality
50、 rates decline but remain higher through 2043 than they would have been in the absence of COVID-19.CBO has corrected this page since the report was originally published.The correction is listed at the end.5JANUARy 2023 THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053Net ImmigrationTo develop its projections of
51、net immigration(the number of people who enter the United States in a given year minus the number who leave in that year),CBO groups people into three categories:lawful permanent residents,who are authorized to work,responsible for paying taxes,and eligible for most federal programs;foreign-born peo
52、ple without legal status,who are generally not eligible for federal programs;and legal temporary residents,whose eligibility for federal programs is limited.For the first two decades of the projection period(from 2023 to 2043),CBOs estimates of net immigration are based on the agencys economic proje
53、ctions and assessment of recent trends.For each year of the third decade(2044 to 2053),net immigration is projected to grow at roughly the same rate as overall population growth in the previous year0.2percent per year,on average.Between 2000 and 2006,net immigration averaged 1.5million people per ye
54、ar.It decreased considerably during the 20072009recession and remained low through 2019,averaging 1.0million people per year.In 2020,net immigration declined further,to 350,000people,in CBOs assessment,because of increased travel restrictions related to the pandemic and the U.S.governments reduced c
55、apacity to process visas.Annual net immigration to the United States is projected to average 1.1million people per year over the 20232053 period.The net number of new lawful permanent residents increases from an average of 820,000 people per year in the first decade to 860,000people per year in the
56、third decade.Net immigration of foreign-born people without legal status averages 220,000people per year in the first decade,falling to 180,000people per year in the third decade.Net immigration of legal temporary residents is projected to average 80,000people per year over the period.CBOs projectio
57、ns of net immigration are subject to several key sources of uncertainty.For example,changing conditions in immigrants countries of origin,future domestic legislation,and the evolving effects of the pandemic could affect outcomes significantly.Net Immigration,by Legal StatusThousands of People Projec
58、ted-750-7501,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502003200432053TotalForeign-Born People Without Legal StatusLegal Temporary ResidentsLawful Permanent ResidentsAs the effects of the pandemic wane and economic conditions in the United States improve,net immigration is projected to rise
59、 and stabilize over the 20232053 period.6THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053 JANUARy 2023Population Used to Project the Labor ForceTo estimate the size of the labor force,CBO uses the civilian noninstitutionalized population.That measure comprises people age 16or older who are not in penal or menta
60、l institutions or in homes for the elderly or infirm or on active duty in the armed forces.To project the civilian noninstitutionalized population,CBO uses the historical ratio of the Social Security area population to the civilian noninstitutionalized population,by sex and age group.In CBOs project
61、ions,the civilian noninstitutionalized population rises from 266million in 2023 to 301million in 2053,or at an average rate of 0.4percent per year.The number of people age 65or older grows at an average annual rate of 1.2percent,which is faster than the rate for people ages 25 to 54(an increase of 0
62、.2percent per year).The number of people ages 16 to 24remains essentially unchanged,on average,over the projection period.Uncertainty in projections of the civilian noninstitutionalized population stems from uncertainty in the flows of the underlying variables.If the rates of fertility,mortality,and
63、 net immigration diverged from those in CBOs projections,then measures of the population used to project the labor force would differ as well.Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population,by Age GroupMillions of People Projected05003003501983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 Projected1983 19
64、93 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 Projected05003003501983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 Projected1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053Total65 or Older55 to 6425 to 5416 to 24People ages 25 to 54(adults of prime working age)are most likely to participate in the labor force.Growth in
65、the number of people in that age group from 2023 to 2053 is projected to be slower than it was from 1983 to 2022.CBO projects that over the 20232053 period,73 million people,on average,will be age 65 or older,and thus generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare and less likely to work.That n
66、umber is about twice the average number of people in that group from 1983 to 2022.7JANUARy 2023 THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053Changes to CBOs Population Projections Since Last YearChanges to projected rates of fertility,mortality,and net immigration mean that CBO now anticipates that the popul
67、ation will be larger and grow slightly faster,on average,than the agency projected last year.In 2052(the final year covered in last years report),the population is projected to be 0.8percent larger(comprising 3.1million more people)in this years projections.Upward revisions to the size of the popula
68、tion ages 25 to 54stemming from higher projected net immigrationaccount for 41percent of the overall increase in the annual population estimates from 2023 to 2052.Changes to the number of people age 24or younger,ages 55 to 64,and age 65or older account for 41percent,4percent,and 14percent,respective
69、ly,of the overall increase.Those changes are the result of slightly higher rates of fertility and lower rates of mortality from COVID-19(relative to the rates in last years projections)and the effect of a larger population that is subject to those fertility and mortality rates.Population in CBOs 202
70、2 and 2023 Projections,by Age GroupMillions of People050028203320382043204820532022202324 or Younger65 or Older55 to 6425 to 54Increased net immigration means that there will be more people ages 25 to 54 in each year from 2023 to 2052 than in CBOs projections last year.Lower mortality rat
71、es(reflecting revised estimates of the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19)mean that there will be slightly more people age 65 or older,on average,over the 20232052 period than the agency projected last year.8THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053 JANUARy 2023Changes to Projected Fertility Rates
72、The total fertility rate after 2022 is projected to be just slightly higher,on average,than CBO anticipated last year.Because the population is now projected to be larger in most years of the 30-year period than CBO projected last year,the number of births is expected to riseby 40,000per year from 2
73、023 to 2032 and 50,000per year from 2043 to 2052,on average.Each of those amounts represents an increase of 1.2percent relative to last years projections of the annual number of births.CBO revised its projections of fertility in this years report in response to the Supreme Courts decision in Dobbs v
74、.Jackson Womens Health Organization,which held that the U.S.Constitution does not confer a right to abortion,returning greater authority to regulate abortion to individual states.5 In CBOs assessment,reduced access to abortion resulting from states regulations will result in more births;other factor
75、s,however,such as changes to the way in which people access abortion services and changes in sexual behavior and contraception use,will largely offset that increase.Fertility Rates in CBOs 2022 and 2023 ProjectionsBirths per Woman00.51.01.52.02023202820332038204320482053Rate for Women Ages 30 to 49T
76、otal Fertility Rate20232022Rate for Women Ages 14 to 29Consistent with the agencys projections last year,CBOs projections for this year reflect higher rates of fertility for older mothers and lower rates of fertility for younger mothers over the 20232053 period.9JANUARy 2023 THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:
77、2023 TO 2053Changes to Projected Mortality RatesBecause of downward revisions to the projected number of deaths attributable to COVID-19,CBO currently projects 20,000(or 0.7percent)fewer deaths per year,on average,from 2023 to 2032 than it projected last year.By the end of the second decade,though,m
78、ortality rates generally return to previously projected levels.Largely because the population is bigger in this years projections than it was in last years,the number of deaths is now projected to increase by 40,000(or 1.1percent)per year,on average,from 2033 to 2052.Life expectancies at birth and a
79、t age 65 are projected to average 78.8 and 19.5years,respectively,from 2023 to 2032.Those projections are essentially unchanged from the agencys estimates last year(78.9 and 19.3years).For the third decade of the period(2043 to 2052),average life expectancies at birth and at age 65 are 81.8years and
80、 21.5years in CBOs projectionsbasically identical to those from last year(81.9 and 21.4years,respectively).Mortality Rates in CBOs 2022 and 2023 Projections,Adjusted for Age and SexDeaths per 100,000 People02004006008001,000202320282033203820432048205320222023Through 2041,the mortality rate is lower
81、 in CBOs current projections than in last years because the agency reduced its projections of deaths attributable to COVID-19.Starting in 2042,technical changes result in a slightly higher projected mortality rate in this years estimates.10THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053 JANUARy 2023Changes to
82、Projected Net Immigration In CBOs assessment,the easing of pandemic-related travel restrictions and improved visa-processing capabilities boosted net immigration by 600,000people in 2022relative to last years projected amount,largely because of increased net immigration of foreign-born people withou
83、t legal status.Compared with last years projections,annual net immigration is higher by 140,000people(or 15.1percent),on average,from 2023 to 2032 and by 20,000people(or 1.5percent),on average,from 2033 to 2052.As a result,the net immigration rate is projected to be 3.1per 1,000people over the entir
84、e 20232052period,slightly higher than last years projected net immigration rate of 3.0per 1,000people.Net Immigration in CBOs 2022 and 2023 ProjectionsThousands of People02505007501,0001,2501,500202320282033203820432048205320222023CBOs current projection of net immigration over the 20232052 period i
85、s slightly higher than its projection last year because of updated information on historical immigration and economic conditions.11JANUARy 2023 THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053Changes Since Last Year in the Population Projections CBO Uses to Estimate the Size of the Labor Force In CBOs current p
86、rojections,the civilian noninstitutionalized population(the measure CBO uses to estimate the size of the labor force)is projected to be 0.7percent larger(equaling 2.0million more people)in 2052 than the agency projected last year.From 2023 to 2052,CBOs projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized
87、 population ages 25 to 54 is larger by 1.1million people(or 0.9percent)per year,and the population ages 16 to 24 is larger by 380,000people(or 1.0percent)per year,on average,than in the agencys projections last year.Those differences stem mostly from revisions to CBOs projections of net immigration
88、and,to a lesser extent,changes to CBOs projections of fertility.The agencys projections of the average annual population ages 55 to 64 and age 65or older are slightly higher than last year,by 150,000people(or 0.3percent)and 40,000people(or 0.1percent),respectively.Those differences mainly result fro
89、m reduced mortality attributable to COVID-19 and changes to the agencys projections of net immigration.Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population in CBOs 2022 and 2023 Projections,by Age GroupMillions of People050028203320382043204820532022202316 to 2465 or Older55 to 6425 to 54In this year
90、s projections,the largest changes since last year are in the number of people ages 25 to 54,who are likely to be in the labor force.Those revisions stem mostly from increased net immigration.12THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK:2023 TO 2053 JANUARy 20231.Michelle J.K.Osterman and others,“Births:Final Data for
91、2020,”National Vital Statistics Reports,vol.70,no.17(National Center for Health Statistics,February 2022),https:/ more information about the opioid crisis and recent federal legislation in response to it,see Congressional Budget Office,The Opioid Crisis and Recent Federal Policy Responses(September
92、2022),www.cbo.gov/publication/58221.3.Sherry L.Murphy and others,“Mortality in the United States,2017,”NCHS Data Brief,no.328(National Center for Health Statistics,November 2018),https:/ L.Murphy and others,“Mortality in the United States,2020,”NCHS Data Brief,no.427(National Center for Health Stati
93、stics,December 2021),https:/ v.Jackson Womens Health Organization,No.19-1392,597 U.S._(2022).About This DocumentThis volume is one of a series of reports on the state of the budget and the economy that the Congressional Budget Office issues each year.In keeping with CBOs mandate to provide objective
94、,impartial analysis,the report makes no recommendations.Daniel Crown prepared the report with guidance from Molly Dahl and Julie Topoleski.LucyYuan fact-checked the report.Stuart Hammond,Nianyi Hong,Sarah Masi,Rachel Matthews,and DavidRafferty contributed to the analysis in this report.Christina Haw
95、ley Anthony,ElizabethCoveDelisle,Stuart Hammond,Joseph Kile,John McClelland,Noah Meyerson,SamanthaRiley,and Emily Stern provided comments on an earlier draft.Comments on CBOs analysis of the projected effect on fertility of the Supreme Courts decision in Dobbs v.Jackson Womens Health Organization we
96、re provided by John Fisher(Lozier Institute),JoshuaGoldstein(University of California,Berkeley),Ronald Lee(University of California,Berkeley),Caitlin Myers(Middlebury College),and James Studnicki(Lozier Institute).Caitlin Myers also provided assistance with CBOs modeling of the impact of that decisi
97、on.The assistance of external reviewers implies no responsibility for the final product;that responsibility rests solely with CBO.Mark Doms,Jeffrey Kling,and Robert Sunshine reviewed the report.Christine Bogusz edited it,and R.L.Rebach created the graphics and prepared the text for publication.The r
98、eport is available at www.cbo.gov/publication/58612.CBO seeks feedback to make its work as useful as possible.Please send comments to communicationscbo.gov.Phillip L.SwagelDirectorJanuary 2023CorrectionThe Congressional Budget Office has corrected this report since its original publication.Both the PDF and online versions were corrected,but for ease of reference,this list indicates the location of the correction in the PDF.The following change was made on January 26,2023.Page 4:In the fourth paragraph of text,“2022”was changed to“2023.”