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1、GWEC.NETCapturing economic opportunities from wind power in developing economiesReport March 2023Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies2Disclaimer Copyright February 2023This document contains forward-looking statements.These statements are based on current vi

2、ews,expectations,assumptions and information of GWEC and the Authors.GWEC,the Authors and their employees and representatives do not guarantee the accuracy of the data or conclusions of this work.They are not responsible for any adverse effects,loss or damage in any way resulting from this work.Perm

3、issions and UsageThis work is subject to copyright.Its content,including text and graphics,may be reproduced in part for non-commercial purposes,with full attribution.AttributionCapturing economic opportunities from wind power in developing economies.Global Wind Energy Council.2023.AuthorsThis repor

4、t was commissioned by the Global Wind Energy Council and authored by BVG Associates.The lead authors of this report were George Hodgkinson and Patrick Browne of BVG Associates.AcknowledgmentsThis report was edited by Reshmi Ladwa and Joyce Lee of the Global Wind Energy Council.We are grateful to the

5、 following individuals and organisations for their input to this report:Argentina:CEA(Camara Eolica Argentina)Colombia:SER(Colombia Asociacin energas renovables)Egypt:Infinity Power Indonesia:UPC Renewables Morocco:SGREImage creditsGWEC.NET3ForewordThe window of opportunity to accelerate wind energy

6、 for a more resilient and sustainable future is closing fast.We now less than seven years from 2030,a key moment on the energy transition journey.Three years ago,as widespread lockdowns caused a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions,the wind industry joined climate scientists and concerned civil so

7、ciety groups to warn governments that without decisive action to phase out fossil fuels,emissions would quickly rebound to pre-pandemic levels.Post pandemic,in February 2022 the Russian invasion of Ukraine added another layer to the energy challenge,forcing energy security to the front of policymake

8、rs minds.The twin crises of climate change and energy security were now joined together by their shared solution.As we enter 2023,we are seeing coal powered generation reaching a record peak,natural gas prices at all-time highs andas predicted emissions rebounding alongside economic recovery.This co

9、mes at a time when wind energy has never been more price competitive.There are reasons to be optimistic however,as the policy environment evolves to enable the development in both emerged and emerging economies.This report looks at five countries where a strong policy environment can deliver enormou

10、s benefits for the local economy as well as delivering tangible benefits for local communities.Wind energy delivers wide-ranging benefits,from job creations to saving water.That makes wind energy particularly beneficial for developing economies addressing the phase out of fossil fuels alongside econ

11、omic growth,a growing demand for electricity and the challenge of energy security.Wind projects have shown a significant cost reduction in established markets over the past twenty years.This report shows how support from government,through policy certainty and government commitment,can help new indu

12、stries avoid the risk of higher potential costs.Wind energy also has the benefit of being predictable,as there are no fuel costs once installed so governments can benefit from that stability.This report looks at five countries Argentina,Colombia,Egypt,Indonesia,and Morocco that have significant and

13、largely untapped wind resource potential.The report aims to demonstrate the huge socioeconomic benefits that wind energy development can deliver alongside the positive environmental outcomes.This report identifies three common hurdles for policymakers trying to accelerate the deployment of wind ener

14、gy and outlines how to overcome those challenges.The wind industry has demonstrated its pivotal role in supporting thriving local economies through skilled jobs creation and the maintaining of critical infrastructure while dramatically contributing to reducing carbon emissions and delivering clean,a

15、ffordable and secure energy.GWEC will continue to collaborate with governments to ensure that the world is well equipped to harness the full socioeconomic benefits of the energy transition.GWEC.NET5Contents1.Introduction 132.General barriers to wind energy deployment 15Country study:Argentina 20Curr

16、ent situation 20Case study-PEPE III wind project 24Recommendations for wind acceleration 25Project pipeline scenarios 25Impacts analysis 27Country study:Colombia 30Current situation 30Case study La Guajira wind farm 34Recommendations for wind acceleration 35Project pipeline scenarios 36Impacts analy

17、sis 37Country study:Egypt 40Current situation 40Case study West Bakr Wind Farm 43Recommendations for wind acceleration 44Project pipeline scenarios 44Impacts analysis 46Country study:Indonesia 50Current situation 50Case study Sidrap Wind Farm 54Recommendations for wind acceleration 55Project pipelin

18、e scenarios 55Impacts analysis 56Country study:Morocco 60Case study Midelt wind project 63Recommendations for wind acceleration 64Project pipeline scenarios 64Impacts analysis 65Conclusion 70Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies6List of figuresFigure 1 Countr

19、ies examined in this study.17Figure 2 Argentina electricity energy mix by source.21Figure 3 Forecast of installed capacity in Argentina in the two scenarios.26Figure 4 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Argentina.27Figure 5 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in A

20、rgentina.27Figure 6 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Argentina.28Figure 7 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Argentina.28Figure 8 Colombia electricity energy mix by source.31Figure 9 Forecast of installed capacity in Colombia in the two scena

21、rios.36Figure 10 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Colombia.37Figure 11 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in Colombia.37Figure 12 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Colombia.38Figure 13 Gross value added created in the wind accelerat

22、ion scenario in Colombia.38Figure 14 Egypt electricity energy mix by source.41Figure 15 Forecast of installed capacity in Egypt in the two scenarios.45Figure 16 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Egypt.46Figure 17 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in Egypt.47Fig

23、ure 18 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Egypt.47Figure 19 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Egypt.48Figure 20 Indonesia electricity energy mix by source.51Figure 21 Forecast of installed capacity in Indonesia in the two scenarios.55Figure 22

24、 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Indonesia.56GWEC.NET7List of TablesFigure 23 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in Indonesia.56Figure 24 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Indonesia.57Figure 25 Gross value added created in the wind

25、 acceleration scenario in Indonesia.57Figure 26 Moroccos electricity energy mix by source.61Figure 27 Forecast of installed capacity in Morocco in the two scenarios.65Figure 28 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Morocco.67Figure 29 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scena

26、rio in Morocco.67Figure 30 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Morocco.67Figure 31 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Morocco.67Table 1 Summary of wind growth impacts in business-as-usual scenario versus wind acceleration scenario for 2023-2027

27、12Table 2 Argentina targets.21Table 3 Forecast of installed capacity in Argentina in the two scenarios.26Table 4 Colombia targets.31Table 5 Forecast of installed capacity in Colombia in the two scenarios.36Table 6 Egypt targets.41Table 7 Forecast of installed capacity in Egypt in the two scenarios.4

28、5Table 8 Indonesia targets.51Table 9 Forecast of installed capacity in Indonesia in the two scenarios.55Table 10 Morocco targets.61Table 11 Forecast of installed capacity in Morocco in the two scenarios.65Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies8GlossaryABEElica

29、Associao Brasileira de Energia ElicaANEELNational Electric Energy Agency(Brazil)BAUBusiness as usualBNDESNational Bank for Economic and Social Development(Brazil)COP2626th Conference of the PartiesCO2eCarbon dioxide equivalentCPPACorporate power purchase agreementEPEEnergy Research Office(Brazil)ESK

30、OMElectricity Supply Commission(South Africa)EVOSSEnergy virtual one stop shopFTEFull time equivalentGDPGross domestic productGHGGreenhouse gasesGRSGreen recovery scenarioGVAGross value addedGWECGlobal Wind Energy CouncilIEAInternational Energy Agency IPPIndependent power producerIRENAInternational

31、Renewable Energy AgencyMMEMinistry of Mines and Energy(Brazil)NDCNationally determined contributionNERSANational Energy Regulator of South Africa PDETen-Year Energy Expansion Plan(Brazil)PPAPower purchase agreementPROINFAIncentive Program for Alternative Sources of Electric Energy(Brazil)SAWEASouth

32、African Wind Energy AssociationUNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeGWEC.NET9EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCapturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies10An increasing number of countries are recognising the key role of wind energy in supporting a global cle

33、an energy transition,in energy security,and achieving stable energy prices.The urgency to scale up clean power generation and shift away from unabated coal power were key elements of the Glasgow Climate Pact,endorsed at COP26 summit in November 2021 by the nearly 200 countries signed up to the Paris

34、 Agreement.This was further cemented at the COP27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh,held in November 2022.Renewable energy is a component of the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)for most of the Parties to the Paris Agreement,and more than 100 Parties have a quantified clean power target within their

35、 NDCs.To reach our shared global goal of limiting temperature rise by the end of the century to 1.5C,the volume of annual wind energy installations must scale up roughly four times over the next decade.This is a huge challenge which will require shared vision and collaboration between governments,in

36、dustry,and society.Given the urgency of the energy transition,it is vital that the deployment of wind energy does not face unnecessary delays due to resolvable challenges,such as bureaucratic permitting procedures and market barriers to investment.The resources and coordination required for this sca

37、le of action have been stretched over the last few years,due to the COVID-19 pandemic and recent commodity price increases.This challenge is particularly acute in developing economies,where public spending and policy response have focused on short-term protections of society and economy.As countries

38、 learn to manage the difficulties of the pandemic and economic activity returns,it is time to undertake the actions which will benefit society and economy in the long term.Wind energy can play a vital role in improving a countrys energy There is a growing mismatch between energy transition ambitions

39、,net zero targets and market realities,however.Accelerated deployment of renewable energy,and particularly large-scale sources of clean power like wind and solar energy,are needed worldwide to limit the most harmful impacts of climate change.GWEC.NET11security and increasing its energy independence.

40、This has been highlighted by Russias invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,following which many countries have examined their own balance between energy imports and exports.Countries reliant on fossil fuel imports are vulnerable to sudden changes in trade agreements and volatile international pricing

41、 markets.Wind energy offers a secure,reliable and affordable long term source of clean power generation.Wind energy also provides a boost to economic activity.Wind energy projects generate significant amounts of capital expenditure and create jobs and other economic benefits for local economies thro

42、ugh their construction and operation.The opportunities in developing economiesThere is a growing body of evidence which shows that wind energy can help governments accelerate a green economic growth,and form a bedrock for sustainable economic growth in the future.The benefits of wind energy are wide

43、-ranging and expand beyond clean power generation.They include sustainable job creation,public health cost savings which would be spent redressing the impacts of fossil fuel generation,water consumption savings which would otherwise be used for thermal generation,and a significant capital injection

44、in a local value chain.The sector is particularly attractive for developing economies which need to phase out fossil fuels while maintaining economic growth,meeting fast-growing electricity demand,safeguarding energy security and prices.To decarbonise power,transport and heating is expected to signi

45、ficantly increase electricity demand.For example,the UK has legally committed to achieve net-zero in 2050 and it is expected to have about the same end user demand then as it has now.To achieve net-zero it will require 3 times as much energy supplied in the form of electricity than it is now.Almost

46、all wind projects installed between 2023 to 2027 will still be generating in 2050 and contributing to achieving net-zero.Wind energy has achieved significant cost reduction and technological excellence over the past two decades,establishing it as a proven and market-ready alternative to fossil fuels

47、.While costs might initially be higher in developing economies where the wind industry is new due to factors such as less experienced personnel,start-up costs,initial investment uncertainty and lack of established supply chain these costs can quickly reduce with government commitment,policy certaint

48、y and market forces.Wind energy has no fuel costs so once installed its costs remain stable and predictable.This report reflects a study of wind energy potential in developing economies around the world over the next five years,2023-2027,with the aim to highlight the vast and largely unexploited soc

49、ioeconomic and environmental opportunities attached to wind energy.Accelerated deployment of wind projects will not only support climate action,but help countries to realise a range of benefits from job creation to cleaner air.The study identifies three common barriers facing wind energy deployment

50、in developing economies and provides recommendations on how these barriers can be overcome.Five developing economies in particular were selected as country studies:Argentina,Colombia,Egypt,Indonesia,and Morocco.These were selected because they have significant and still largely untapped wind energy

51、resource.Findings of the study:upsides of accelerated wind deployment in a wind acceleration scenarioThe findings of this study,summarised in Table 1 below,show that a wind acceleration scenario of wind deployment from 2023-2027 would realise tremendous socioeconomic benefits for each country.For de

52、veloping economies facing the difficult balance of ensuring economic growth while maintaining energy security and resilience,investment in the wind sector offers a pathway to a robust and sustainable recovery.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies12Table 1 Sum

53、mary of wind growth impacts in business-as-usual scenario versus wind acceleration scenario for 2023-2027.Country2023-2027New wind installations(MW)FTE jobs created over wind farm lifetimes(jobs)Gross value added to economy over wind farm lifetimes($)Homes powered by clean energy annually from 2027(

54、homes)Tons of carbon emissions saved over wind farm lifetimes(tons)Litres of water saved annually from 2027(litres)ArgentinaBAU1,500112,0003.3 billion1.7 million71 million12 millionWind Acceleration1,965176,0004.7 billion2.2 million93 million16 millionPotential Upside46564,0001 billion 0.5 million21

55、 million4 million%increase31%57%45%30%30%31%ColombiaBAU2,700191,0004.9 billion5.5 million233 million15.5 millionWind Acceleration3,900339,0008.1 billion7.8 million336 million22.5 millionPotential Upside1,200148,0003 billion 2.3 million103 million7 million%increase44%77%65%43%44%44%EgyptBAU2,602242,0

56、003.5 billion6.5 million225 million21 millionWind Acceleration3,758406,0005.6 billion9.2 million326 million31 millionPotential Upside1,158164,0002.1 billion 2.8 million101 million10 million%increase45%68%60%43%45%45%IndonesiaBAU45034,0001.2 billion1 million23 million2.6 millionWind Acceleration56551

57、,0001.6 billion1.2 million29 million3.2 millionPotential Upside11517,000400 million 0.2 million6 million0.7 million%increase26%50%36%24%26%26%MoroccoBAU1,50099,0002.1 billion4.7 million77 million8.6 millionWind Acceleration2,138174,0003.4 billion6.6 million110 million12.3 millionPotential Upside6387

58、5,0001.3 billion 1.9 million12.3 million3.7 million%increase43%76%63%40%42%43%GWEC.NET13While this report includes only five country studies,similar socioeconomic benefits can be achieved by other countries.A previous report in early 2022 studied this for Brazil,India,Mexico,South Africa and The Phi

59、lippines,published by GWEC in February 2022.The study analysed international experience of the onshore wind industry and found that typically a 1 GW/year installation rate over 5 years could unlock nearly 157,000 new jobs and$13.8 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over wind farms l

60、ifetime,among other benefits.Recommendations to support wind growth in developing economiesIn the course of the study and conversations with industry and investment experts around the world(see the Methodology in Appendix A),several barriers to wind energy deployment were identified that are common

61、to developing economies.The most significant common barriers are a lack of clear policy commitment,insufficient transmission system infrastructure,limited investment in grid upgrade and expansion,and complex regulatory frameworks.Addressing these barriers proactively,in coordination with the wind en

62、ergy industry and other relevant stakeholders,can support accelerated deployment of wind energy and a wind acceleration in developing economies.Policy commitment:provide clarity and ambition for wind energyLack of policy commitment to consistently promote and enable wind energy is a barrier to wind

63、energy deployment common to many developing economies.In many countries,governments remain committed to conventional fossil fuel-based electricity generation,particularly if it is a good source of foreign investment.Even in countries where the government is positive towards renewable energy,there ca

64、n be a lack of enabling policy frameworks and regulation to adequately support investment in wind energy and other renewables.Invest to expand transmission system infrastructureWind energy projects rely on land availability,wind resource,and grid connection points.This means that projects cant alway

65、s be developed in areas where the grid is well developed.This is particularly an issue for multi-island nations like Indonesia,in which the countrys best wind resources can be found on sparsely populated islands.In many countries,development of transmission system infrastructure is coordinated by a

66、separate organisation to that for the development and planning for electricity generation.In other countries the governance of the transmission system and generation is split into regions.This fragmentation can lead to the transmission system not being efficiently developed in the optimal areas or a

67、t the necessary time for connecting wind energy projects,which can delay the deployment of new capacity,raise investment risk and hamper efforts to meet targets.Greater public and private investment in secure,smart and flexible grids which enable ever-larger shares of renewable energy is necessary t

68、o meet the urgent pace of the energy transition.Simplify permitting frameworks for renewable energyToo many countries are unable to leverage the enormous interest from investors to deploy wind energy projects due to inefficient permitting schemes.Frameworks for leasing,permitting,and power procureme

69、nt can be overly complex and bureaucratic,which can delay wind energy deployment if projects cannot obtain the necessary permits and approvals in a sensible timeframe.These processes can cover spatial planning,environmental and social impact assessment,planning authorisation,grid connection,and lega

70、l challenges to project proposals.In many countries,developers must submit documents and applications to multiple national and local agencies.A lack of clarity on procedures and timelines and poor coordination between agencies and jurisdictions leads to delays,uncertainty,and inefficiencies.Capturin

71、g green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies14Based on industry experience to date,a country which installs 1 GW of onshore wind energy capacity per year from 2023 to 2027 could unlock a range of socioeconomic and environmental benefits*:The resulting 5 GW of wind energy:A

72、total of 130,000 jobs during the development,construction,and installation phase of the wind farms 28.8 million litres of water saved annually from 2026 US$12.5 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farmsPower 4.9 million homes with clean energy per year f

73、rom 2026 12,000 local jobs annually during the 25-year operations and maintenance phase of the wind farms 240 million metric tons of carbon emissions equivalent saved of carbon emissions over the lifetime of the wind farms Mitigates 240 million metric tons of CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the w

74、ind farms,which is the equivalent of:83.5 million return flights from New York to Sharm el-Sheikh Taking 53 million internal combustion engine cars off the road for one yearPlanting and maintaining 6.4 million trees for 10 years*Assuming a cost of 2 million/MW,and 25 years of operation.Assumes all m

75、ajor components are sourced in country,except for the turbine,where we assume only blades and towers manufactured locally.One job is defined as full-time employment for one person for one calendar year.GWEC.NET15Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies16An incre

76、asing number of countries have set wind energy targets in the coming decades,recognising wind energys key role in supporting a clean energy transition and achieving Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)and net zero targets under the Paris Agreement.The importance of energy security has also been

77、 brought into sharp focus in light of February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.It is widely acknowledged that wind energy can play a key role in improving a countrys energy security,increasing self-reliance and providing a sustainable,reliable and affordable source of clean electricity generation i

78、ndependent of future fossil fuel prices and their associated uncertainty.Also in many countries,onshore wind power is the cheapest form of electrical energy.The development of wind energy also can be a major boost to economic activity forming a bedrock for sustainable economic growth.This is particu

79、larly critical given the current global energy crisis and volatility of energy markets around the world.The International Energy Agencys(IEA)recent World Energy Outlook 20221 asserts that current events are a reminder of the vulnerabilities of the current global energy system,and will fast-track str

80、uctural change towards the clean energy transition.This report provides a:Study of wind energy potential in five developing economies around the world over the next five years,with the aim to highlight the vast and largely unexploited socioeconomic,energy security-related,and environmental opportuni

81、ties attached to wind energy.Discussion of the common barriers facing wind energy deployment in developing economies,and Recommendations on how these barriers can be overcome.1 International Energy Agency,World Energy Outlook 2022,October 2022,available online at:https:/ report examines five develop

82、ing economies,as shown in Figure 1.These countries were selected because they face particular socio-political and economic challenges which threaten to slow down the clean energy transition,as well as for having significant and still largely untapped wind energy resource.A previous report in early 2

83、022 provided likewise for Brazil,India,Mexico,South Africa and The Philippines.2 Since then the relative economics of wind power has increased further,making the transition to wind more cost effective.2 GWEC,Capturing Green Recovery Opportunities from Wind Power in Developing Economies,Feb 2022,avai

84、lable online at:https:/ on offshore windGiven the five-year horizon and the countries selected for study,only onshore wind capacity and no offshore wind capacity has been included into the analysis of the countries discussed.While offshore wind makes up zero or a small proportion of the wind capacit

85、y in each of the countries discussed,all of the countries have significant offshore wind potential which could be realised in the coming decades.This is particularly the case for Argentina.Many of the broader recommendations made in this document are relevant for offshore wind.1.IntroductionGWEC.NET

86、17Figure 1 Countries examined in this study.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies18While the benefits of wind energy are great and numerous,there are a number of barriers to sector development which are common to the five countries selected for this study,as

87、well as many developing economies around the world.Lack of clear policy commitmentLack of policy commitment to consistently promote and enable wind energy is a barrier to wind energy deployment common to many developing economies.In many countries,governments remain committed to conventional fossil

88、fuel-based electricity generation,particularly if it is a good source of foreign investment.Even in countries where the government is positive towards renewable energy,there can be a lack of enabling policy frameworks and regulation to adequately support investment in wind energy and other renewable

89、s.A clear route to market is needed to decrease investment risk and cost of capital for developers.Similarly,long-term ambitions for wind energy ease pressures on local investment in a supply chain.Governments must increase wind power ambition and reflect this in updated NDCs and targets,comprehensi

90、ve national climate strategies,and short-and long-term energy plans.The Glasgow Climate Pact called upon all Parties to COP to submit updated and strengthened NDCs by COP27.Beyond NDCs,national visions or policies should include concrete wind energy capacity or generation targets,with a clear,detail

91、ed timeline and a roadmap to achieve installation volumes.Insufficient transmission system infrastructure and investmentWind energy projects rely on land availability,wind resource,and grid connection points.This means that projects cant always be developed in areas where the grid is well developed.

92、This is particularly an issue for multi-island nations,in which the countrys best wind resources can be found on sparsely populated islands.In many countries,development of transmission system infrastructure is coordinated by a separate organisation to that for the development and planning for elect

93、ricity generation.In other countries the governance of the transmission system and generation is split into regions.This fragmentation can lead to the transmission system not being efficiently developed in the optimal areas or at the necessary time for connecting wind energy projects,which can delay

94、 the deployment of new capacity,raise investment risk and hamper efforts to meet targets.Greater public and private investment in secure,smart and flexible grids which enable ever-larger shares of renewable energy is necessary to meet the urgent pace of the energy transition.Forward-planning of tran

95、smission network expansion and investment in developing the network should be accelerated to increase the potential sites developers will consider for wind projects,as well as to avoid delays and grid congestion in the future.Through pooling expertise among system operators,regulators and utilities,

96、public authorities can undertake long-term forward-planning on grid expansion and reinforcement,electrification of transport,as well as creating regional markets for power export and trading.2.General barriers to wind energy deploymentGWEC.NET19Complex permitting frameworks Too many countries are un

97、able to leverage the enormous interest from investors to deploy wind energy projects due to inefficient permitting schemes.Frameworks for leasing,permitting,and power procurement can be overly complex and bureaucratic,which can delay wind energy deployment if projects cannot obtain the necessary per

98、mits and approvals in a sensible timeframe.These processes can cover spatial planning,environmental and social impact assessment,planning authorisation,grid connection,and legal challenges to project proposals.In many countries,developers must submit documents and applications to multiple national a

99、nd local agencies.A lack of clarity on procedures and timelines and poor coordination between agencies and jurisdictions leads to delays,uncertainty,and inefficiencies.For onshore wind projects,permitting can take more than 8 years in Spain,Italy,Greece,Sweden,Belgium(Flanders)and Croatia,including

100、the time taken by any legal challenges,according to WindEurope.In Japan it can take up to 5 years to complete the complex environmental impact assessment process.Policymakers must ensure that bureaucracy and red tape are not obstructions to achieving energy and climate goals.Lack of a consistent,cle

101、ar permitting process adds risk for investors and developers and adversely impacts industry confidence in a country.Frameworks related to permitting,leasing,and auctions should be simplified to increase wind energy deployment.Consider establishing a single agency,or one-stop shop,to manage and coord

102、inate all documentation and applications to greatly help simplify processes.Strong coordination between different framework administrators is key.This includes administrators of leasing,permitting,revenue support,and other frameworks,and ministries responsible for energy and environment.This ensures

103、 that processes fit well together,and that each can cater for the volumes of projects progressing.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies20Current situationArgentina has some of the best wind resources in the world,with high wind speeds and extremely high poten

104、tial capacity factors of up to 70%,as well as large amounts of open space for wind farm development.The largest contributors to Argentinas electricity mix are currently natural gas and hydropower.On average,Argentina produces 500,000 barrels per day(bpd)of oil,of which around 20%is exported.Despite

105、this,Argentina is a net importer of fossil fuels.Inflation in Argentina has been rising for several years and is forecast to average 98%for the year 2023,causing economic uncertainty.These macroeconomic conditions,as well as turbulent financial markets,dampen investor confidence.Appetite for investm

106、ent is still present,however,due to Argentinas huge technical potential and growing energy demand.The move to renewable energy will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels for power generation and the rising costs associated with natural gas and oil,as well as unleash international investor confidence

107、 in the growing renewables sector.Argentina currently has 3,300 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC to install around 300 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.Under an accelerated transition scenario,if barriers to policy frameworks,transmission

108、infrastructure and permitting schemes were resolved,Argentina could install 31%more onshore wind energy capacity in the next five years.Energy mix and targetsArgentina ratified the Paris agreement on the 21st of September 2016.It has an NDC to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.It has set the g

109、oal of not exceeding the net emission of 349 MtCO2e in 2030,which is a 19%reduction compared to peak levels set in 2007.In 2015,the Government passed Law 27.191,which sets a non-hydro renewable energy target of 20%by 2025 with the potential of 25%by 2030.Of this,65%will be wind power.Relevant target

110、s are shown in Table 2.COUNTRY STUDY ArgentinaArgentina currently has 3,300 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC to install around 300 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.GWEC.NET21With increased focus these targets are realistic,as wind energy h

111、as been steadily increasing as a proportion of the total mix over the past five years.Continuation of this progress depends on the state of the local economy,however.Table 2 Argentina targets.Parameter2030 targetReduction of emissions intensity compared to 2007 levels(NDC as of November 2021)19%Shar

112、e of non-fossil fuel sources(non-hydro)in installed electricity capacity mix20%(2025)Share of wind power in installed electricity capacity mix13%Argentinas electricity energy mix and dependence on natural gas and oil is shown in Figure 2.In 2020(most recent data available),the share of non-hydro ren

113、ewables was 7.4%of the total mix.Figure 2 Argentina electricity energy mix by source.040801201602000%20%40%60%80%100%02005201020152020Electricty generated(TWh)Share of electricity mixSource:IEACoalOilNatural gasBiofuelsNuclearHydroWindSolar PVTotalCapturing green recovery opportunities fr

114、om wind power in developing economies22Economic stimulus and laws for clean energyVital to wind development in Argentina is Law 27.191(2015),which established a framework for renewable energy development.Central to this was the creation of the Renewable Energy Trust Fund(FODER)which is used to provi

115、de payment guarantees and project finance to renewable energy developers.This law grants multiple tax incentives to wind developers.These include:Accelerated depreciation of assets VAT refunds on pre-COD purchases Tax deduction of all financial expenses Extension of income tax loss credits to 10 yea

116、rs,and 20%tax credit available to local independent power producers that achieve 30%local content.The Ministry of Energy and Mines(MINEM)sets energy sector policies and oversees their implementation.The local wholesale market,Mercado Electrico Mayorista(MEM)is administered by state utility CAMMESA w

117、hich is owned by MINEM(20%)and private sector companies(80%).To reduce the production of GHG associated with its energy generation,the Government created the RenovAr program in 2016,which aims to increase the development of renewable energy projects through competitive auctions and to establish 20-y

118、ear power purchase agreements(PPAs)between renewables projects and CAMMESA.This programme seeks to increase the bankability of projects through a few measures:Payment and liquidity guarantee from FODER Provision of dispatch priority to renewables projects,and Issue of PPA tariffs in$USD that are pay

119、able in ARS.Since its launch in 2016,the RenovAr program has awarded 244 renewable energy projects,achieving 6.3 GW of installed capacity throughout its auction rounds of which 74%has been wind.In response to recent political and economic uncertainty that saw several large-scale projects fail to rea

120、ch financial close,and in a bid to better utilise Argentinas medium voltage grid network,Round 3 of the RenovAr aimed at incentivising small-scale decentralised projects up to 10 MW in capacity.GWEC.NET23Current barriers to wind energyGrid development A programme of expansion across the countrys hig

121、h voltage and medium voltage grid networks is urgently required to support the planned expansion of wind energy.Though proposals have been brought forward by regulators,substantial progress in this area has been slow,mostly due to embedded government bureaucracy and lack of government focus.Investme

122、nt environmentInflation in Argentina for 2022 averaged approximately 75%and has been over 40%since 2019.This has created an unstable environment for investors.Developers have been able to help account for these inflationary pressures through contracting strategies,but problems are compounded by fore

123、ign exchange limitations that are enforced as a legacy of recent financial instability.These limitations prevent investment dollars from being expatriated outside Argentina to preserve the financial strength of the Argentine Peso,and severely dampen investor appetite in the region as any profits or

124、revenue cannot be converted to other currencies.This restricts the amount of foreign investment in the country,the financing options available to developers,and the extent to which equipment can be purchased overseas.It has limited involvement in the market to smaller national power providers and li

125、mits the scope for private overseas investment in critical high-voltage network upgrades needed to accommodate future growth.Changes to auction eligibilityLarge wind projects(larger than 10 MW)were excluded from the latest round of the RenovAr programme,which is targeted at small scale de-centralise

126、d generation projects.Wind projects are less attractive at this scale as economies of scale during maintenance are not possible.Although large scale wind projects can still find a route to market via the MATER framework,which seeks to incentives corporate PPAs between developers and large users of p

127、ower with average demand more than 0.3 MW,the rate of project development under this framework has historically been slow.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies24Case study PEPE III wind project 3 Pampa Energa,Pampa Energa Wind Farm III(PEPE III),available onl

128、ine at:https:/ Vestas,New 106 MW order extends Vestas Argentinean leadership,May 2018,available online at:https:/ 5 Cmara Elica Argentina,Activity,available online at:https:/.ar/?page_id=6076 The PEPE III wind project is the twin to its predecessor PEPE II,located off 3 km from the City of Bahia Bla

129、nca,a province of Buenos Aires.This project was commissioned in 2019 and came into operation in 2020.As of 2021 both PEPE II and III are authorised under the International Renewable Energy Certificates(IREC)standard.As of 2020,the installed capacity can generate 243GWh of clean power.3 This generati

130、on comes from the 53 MW of capacity produced by 14 wind turbines procured from Vestas.4While the job creation from this exact project is not entirely clear,there has been significant value created,reflected in investment in the wind industry of approximately$4.6 billion since 2016.Argentina being La

131、tin Americas second largest producer of wind this is a positive signal that a significant work force will be required.PEPE III is one of many projects in nine provinces in Argentina which have collectively contributed towards the mitigations of over 5.8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.5GWEC

132、.NET25Recommendations for wind acceleration Allow the expatriation of the revenue and profit of wind projects in dollars.This will greatly improve investor appetite as the chances of wind projects succeeding will not be tied down directly to the local economy.Incentivise the next round of the RenovA

133、r programme to allow for small and medium sized decentralised projects(up to 50 MW).This will continue the best use of Argentinas medium voltage grid network,while increasing the capacity of most projects slightly to further accelerate wind capacity and encourage the shift to a high voltage network.

134、Larger projects will also increase the need and incentive to develop a skills base in Argentina.Improve wind industry visibility by establishing an auction pipeline with at least a 34 year timeframe.This will allow developers time to prepare their bids,increase investor certainty and increase compet

135、ition in the market by de-risking the market for smaller developers.A longer-term auction framework can also support more efficient coordination with grid planning.Increase coordination between strategic grid development and future energy generation plans,to streamline future grid connection plannin

136、g for wind energy projects.The planning timelines for grid connection should be aligned with the implementation of grid augmentation,as well as the shift from the current medium voltage grid to high voltage.Construction of additional substations should be prioritised to ensure that renewable energy

137、can be integrated across different regions of the country.Project pipeline scenarios The methodology for these scenario forecasts is in Appendix A.In the business-as-usual scenario we forecast that almost 1.5 GW of wind capacity will be installed between 2023 and 2027.If wind is accelerated and barr

138、iers are removed,we forecast a fast acceleration of wind capacity from Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies262025 which would result in almost 2 GW being installed between 2023 and 2027 a potential upside of 500 MW.The greatest difference is seen in 2027,and

139、 this trend is expected continue past 2027.0.00.20.40.620232024202520262027Capacity installed(GW)Year of installationBusiness as usualWind accelerationFigure 3 Forecast of installed capacity in Argentina in the two scenarios.Table 3 Forecast of installed capacity in Argentina in the two scenarios.Ne

140、w wind installed capacity(MW)20232024202520262027Business as usual300300300300300Wind acceleration3003Figure 3 shows the forecast pipeline in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.Table 3 shows the forecast installed capacity in MW in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.GWEC.NET27di

141、fferent segments of an onshore wind farm can be found in the Appendix B.In the wind acceleration scenario,50,000 direct and indirect FTE job years are created from wind energy in Argentina between 2023 and 2027 in the development,construction,and installation phase.In addition,5,000 annual direct an

142、d indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 5 shows the annual FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply chain category.There is a potential upside of 64,000 new FTE jobs created in a wind 8.4 9.3 11.5 14.4 12.8 -20 40 60

143、80-5 10 15 2020232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thousands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulativeFigure 4 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Argentina.Impacts analysisIn the business-as-

144、usual scenario,41,000 direct and indirect FTE job years are created by wind energy in Argentina between 2023 and 2027 in the development,construction,and installation phase.In addition,2,900 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in OMS,which continue for the lifetime of the wind farms

145、.Figure 4 shows the annual FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario by supply chain category.Examples of occupations across -20 40 60 80-5 10 15 2020232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thousands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstall

146、ation and commissioningO&MCumulative8.4 9.3 11.5 14.4 12.8 Figure 5 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in Argentina.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies28acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.$1.9 billion direct and indir

147、ect gross value added is created from wind energy in Argentina between 2023 and 2027 in the business-as-usual scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 6 shows the GVA created in the business-as-usual scenario by supply chain category.$2.4 billion direct and indirect gross value added is c

148、reated from wind energy in Argentina between 2023 and 2027 in the wind acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 7 shows the GVA created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply chain category,with a difference of$500 million from the BAU scenario.20232024202520262027Develo

149、pment and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 -1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0-0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Aunual GVA($billions)Cumulative GVA years($billions)20232024202520262027Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissi

150、oningO&MCumulative 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 Aunual GVA($billions)Cumulative GVA years($billions)Figure 6 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Argentina.Figure 7 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Argentina.GWEC.NET29Impa

151、cts created in Argentina in the business as usual scenario Impacts created in Argentina in the green recovery scenario A total of 112,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$3.3 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms6,570 GWh e

152、lectricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 1.7 million homes powered with clean energy per year 1.8 million electric vehicles powered annually from 202771 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:15.5 million cars of the road

153、 21.2 million return flights from Buenos Aires to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 1.9 million trees for 10 years12 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generationA total of 176,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the win

154、d farmsUS$4.7 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms8,600 GWh electricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 2.2 million homes powered with clean energy per year 2.3 million electric vehicles powered annually from 202793 million tonnes o

155、f carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:20.2 million cars of the road 27.6 million return flights from Buenos Aires to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 2.5 million trees for 10 years16 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would oth

156、erwise be used for thermal power generationCapturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies30Current situationColombia has started to develop an onshore wind industry,with substantial policy frameworks and regulations,and a project pipeline for wind projects of over 2 G

157、W.Colombia has large regions of both untapped onshore and offshore wind potential.Despite government efforts,Colombia is still a large greenhouse gases(GHG)emitter.The largest contributions to emissions come from the transport sector at 41%,with the industrial sector following behind at 28%and elect

158、ricity and heating at 10%.With an energy mix that heavily relies on hydropower,the system is vulnerable to El Nio weather patterns with drier years causing the country to utilise more fossil fuel combustion for power generation.More renewables in the energy mix will provide greater energy security a

159、nd less reliance on fossil fuels in drier years.In mid-2022 a new political party came into power with environmental issues at the centre of its campaign and is likely to boost Colombias renewable ambitions further.The public and private sector are working collaboratively to make Colombia a leader i

160、n wind power in Latin American markets.Additionally,Colombia has begun enacting policies outlined in its offshore wind and hydrogen roadmaps6,7,signalling political ambition.Colombia currently has 23 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC to install around 300-800 MW per year

161、under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.Under an accelerated transition scenario,if barriers to policy frameworks,transmission infrastructure and permitting schemes were resolved,Colombia could install 44%more onshore wind energy capacity in the next five years.Energy mix and targetsCol

162、ombia ratified the Paris agreement on 12 July 2018,and announced its NDC in December 2020 to reduce emissions 51%by 2030 compared to the 2014 levels.This represents a 6 The World Bank,Colombia Offshore Wind Roadmap,2022,available online at:https:/www.minenergia.gov.co/documents/5859/Colombia_Offshor

163、e_Wind_Roadmap_VE_compressed.pdf 7 Inter-American Development Bank,Colombia Hydrogen Roadmap,2021,available online at:https:/www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/colombia-hydrogen-roadmap COUNTRY STUDY ColombiaColombia currently has 23 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC to in

164、stall around 300-800 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.GWEC.NET31maximum of country emissions of 169.44 MtCO2eq in 2030.It has the goal to reach net zero by 2050.Other relevant targets are shown in Table 4.Colombias targets are realistic.The new government installed in

165、 2022 will likely ensure these targets maintain a Table 4 Colombia targets.Parameter2030 targetLevel of deforestation Zero deforestationReduction of emissions intensity compared to 2014 levels(NDC as of November 2021)51%Share of non-fossil fuel sources in installed electricity capacity mix70%0204060

166、801000%20%40%60%80%100%Electricty generated(TWh)Share of electricity mixSource:IEACoalOilNatural gasHydroBiofuelsWindSolar PVTotalFigure 8 Colombia electricity energy mix by source.priority,and the country already has a strong track record of expanding renewables generation,mostly via hydropower.Alt

167、ernative renewable energy should continue to however,to diversify the electricity mix and thus help increase energy security.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies32Colombia established an overarching legal framework for the development of onshore wind energy

168、in 2014(Law 1517/2014).This has been continually updated and amended in the years since,and grants multiple tax incentives to developers,and is in force until 2051.Incentives include:Exclusion of sales tax on goods and services Exemption of import tariffs The right to discount up to 50%of total inve

169、stment values from tax revenues over the first 15 years of a projects operational lifetime,and Tax recovery is supported by an accelerated depreciation mechanism,which allows annual depreciation of up to 33.3%to be applied to assets.This allows developers reduce their tax burden.Decree 570 of 2018 e

170、stablished the Ministry of Mines and Energy as the authority responsible for regulating,planning co-ordinating and monitoring the development of wind energy.This includes defining target volumes,as well as developing competitive allocation schemes and the assessment criteria that will be used to dev

171、elop wind projects.Despite being the largest coal producer in Latin America,only 5%of the total electricity was generated from coal in 2021,as shown in Figure 8.Colombias electricity energy mix has remained remarkably constant over the past two decades,with the proportion of renewables(dominated by

172、hydropower)gradually increasing from 76.4%in 1990 to 76.6%in 2021.Of this,wind comprised 0.1%of the electricity mix in 2021.Economic stimulus and laws for clean energyThe Sustainable and Inclusive Reactivation and Growth Policy(PRCSI),a recovery plan for a just energy transition,was launched in 2020

173、.This focuses on developing Colombias energy infrastructure for better integration of renewables and inter-region connectivity.Additionally,Law 2169/2021,passed in 2021,is inspired by Colombias NDC targets and establishes a goal of reducing Colombias Greenhouse gas emissions by 51%against a 2014 ref

174、erence.GWEC.NET33Auctions are run by Colombias Mining and Energy Planning Unit(UPME),a technical unit within the Ministry.Colombia has hosted three stand-alone technology neutral auctions since 2019.The first was unsuccessful,as stringent prequalification requirements were not met.These requirements

175、 were dropped for subsequent rounds,which were more successful as a result.An additional key reason for the success of subsequent rounds was the enaction of a 10%mandatory renewable energy target in the 2019 National Plan of Development.Renewables auctions have adopted a design that matches pre-qual

176、ified buyers and sellers to determine long term PPAs.Current barriers to wind energyLack of auction visibilityColombia has hosted two successful auctions,but these have been issued on an ad-hoc basis.This lack of certainty over the timing and size of future rounds hampers the ability of market playe

177、rs to make long term plans,providing a barrier to supply chain participation and growth.Market schemes have been implemented to encourage the development of corporate PPAs,but volumes are still small.Social and environmental licencingThe social and environmental licencing process in Colombia is supp

178、osed to take 110 working days for a project,plus the additional time to deal with any problems encountered during the evaluation of paperwork.Environmental permitting has been a source of significant delay for wind energy projects however,with delays of multiple months.A problematic part of the proc

179、ess is the need for infrastructure developers to establish free,prior,informed consent with indigenous and ethnic groups as a fundamental part of the environmental and social licencing process.This is managed by the Directorate of Prior Consultation and requires significant resources of development

180、teams that struggle to manage multiple applications in tandem.Developers are eager to meet prior consent requirements projects but would like to see clearer regulation to streamline the process and limit development risk.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies3

181、4Grid development One of the least developed areas of the energy transmission system is in the wind-rich region of La Guajira.The lack of transmission development means wind farms struggle to begin operations due to lack of grid connection point availability.The Colombian energy sector is structured

182、 and overseen by the Ministry of Mines and Energy,which can intervene to help with expansion of the energy network to remote areas of the country.Case study La Guajira wind farm8 Vestas,Vestas enters new market with an order in Colombia,September 20,available online at:https:/ La Guajira,Colombias f

183、irst wind farm after a 17-year hiatus,came online in January 2022.The Colombian multinational Elecnor and energy generator Isagen formed a partnership to develop this wind farm.This partnership between an electricity utility and an operations and maintenance company can be valuable when looking at s

184、ynergies for collaboration along the value chain.Vestas was commissioned to supply 10 turbines,which together can generate up to 20 MW of clean energy for the region.8This project alone created over 50 jobs and generated in the region of$75,000 million pesos.As this project is one of 14 in the pipel

185、ine,more jobs and further investment can be expected in the region.In 2022,Colombia experienced a record high of investment million in renewable energy investment in the region of$800 million pesos,the positive effects of which will be felt throughout the local economy.GWEC.NET35Recommendations for

186、wind acceleration Improve wind industry visibility by establishing an auction pipeline with a 34 year timeframe at least.This will allow developers time to prepare their bids and increase investor certainty.In addition to the further encouragement of corporate PPAs,this will increase competition in

187、the market by de-risking the market for smaller developers.Simplify the permitting,environmental and social licencing process,especially to streamline the process for achieving informed consent with indigenous and ethnic groups.Expanding the number of staff at the Directorate of Prior Consultation w

188、ill also allow the faster processing of applications.Increase government spending commitments directed at grid modernisation and expansion to promote a reliable operation and prevent bottlenecks,especially in the La Guajira region,and to help futureproof the system for further low-cost wind addition

189、s.Failure to adapt market design to the needs of the future energy system may result in higher long-term costs,higher electricity prices for consumers and systematic integration challenges for clean energy.Continue to strengthen the dialogue between the government and renewable energy stakeholders,i

190、ncluding investors in the sector,IPPs and civil society organisations representing community,especially ingenious groups,interests.Limited channels for dialogue can make it challenging to assess investment risk in wind projects,particularly in an environment of policy variability and new institution

191、al frameworks.Establishing a semi-permanent forum for dialogue and consultation between the government,industry and wider stakeholders would allow for more effective responses and contributions to policy changes.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies36Project

192、pipeline scenarios The methodology for these scenario forecasts is in Appendix A.In the business-as-usual scenario we forecast that 2.7 GW of wind capacity will be installed between 2023 and 2027.If wind is accelerated and barriers are removed,almost 4 GW of wind capacity will be installed between 2

193、023 and 2027 an upside of over 1 Table 5 Forecast of installed capacity in Colombia in the two scenarios.New wind installed capacity(MW)20232024202520262027Business as usual800600500300500Wind acceleration8407208005404202520262027Capacity installed(GW)Year of installationBusiness as usual

194、Wind acceleration0.00.51.01.5Figure 9 Forecast of installed capacity in Colombia in the two scenarios.GW of more wind energy installed over the five-year period.The greatest difference is seen in 2027,and this trend is expected continue past 2027.Figure 9 shows the forecast pipeline in the two scena

195、rios between 2023 and 2027.Table 5 shows the forecast installed capacity in MW in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.GWEC.NET37Impacts analysisIn the business-as-usual scenario,68,000 direct and indirect FTE job years are created by wind energy in Colombia between 2023 and 2027 2023202420252026

196、2027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thousands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative-20 40 60 80 100 120 140-5 10 15 20 25 3023.6 21.2 24.6 17.3 24.3 20232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thou

197、sands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative22.5 17.7 15.4 9.6 12.2 -20 40 60 80 100 120 140-5 10 15 20 25 30Figure 10 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Colombia.Figure 11 FTE years created in the wind acceleration sc

198、enario in Colombia.in the development,construction,and installation phase.In addition,4,800 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 10 shows the annual FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario by supply chain ca

199、tegory.Examples of occupations across different segments of an onshore wind farm can be found in the Appendix B.In the wind acceleration scenario,92,500 direct and indirect FTE job years are created from wind energy in Colombia between 2023 and 2027 in the development,construction,and installation p

200、hase.In addition 9,500 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 11 shows the annual FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply chain category.There is a potential upside of 148,000 new FTE jobs created in

201、 a wind acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.$2.6 billion direct and indirect gross value added is created from wind energy in Colombia between 2023 and 2027 in the business-as-usual scenario over the lifetime of the wind Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in

202、 developing economies38Figure 13 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Colombia.Figure 12 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Colombia.20232024202520262027Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCum

203、ulative0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 -1 2 3 4 5 6-0.5 1.0 1.5Aunual GVA($billions)Cumulative GVA years($billions)20232024202520262027Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 -1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0-0.5 1.0 1.5Aunual GVA($billions)

204、Cumulative GVA years($billions)farms.Figure 12 shows the GVA created in the business-as-usual scenario by supply chain category.$3.7 billion direct and indirect GVA is created from wind energy in Colombia between 2023 and 2027 in the wind acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.Fig

205、ure 13 shows the GVA created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply chain category.The potential upside in the wind acceleration scenario is$1.1 billion direct and indirect GVA.GWEC.NET39Impacts created in Colombia in the business as usual scenarioImpacts created in Colombia in the wind acceler

206、ation scenarioA total of 191,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$4.9 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms8,300 GWh electricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 5.5 million homes powered with clean energy p

207、er year 2.3 million electric vehicles powered annually from 2027233 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:51 million cars of the road 80 million return flights from Bogot to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 6 million trees for 10 y

208、ears15.5 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generationA total of 339,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$8.1 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms12,000 GWh ele

209、ctricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 7.8 million homes powered with clean energy per year 3.3 million electric vehicles powered annually from 2027336 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:73 million cars of the road 11

210、5 million return flights from Bogot to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 8.8 million trees for 10 years22.5 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generationCapturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies

211、40Current situationAs country host of COP27 in late 2022,governments worldwide will be looking to Egypt to demonstrate leadership and initiative on climate change,including wind power acceleration and progress towards its NDCs,most recently updated in July 2022.Egypt is currently responsible for ove

212、r one-third of Africas total natural gas consumption,and has a predicted increase in emissions of 50%from 2022 levels by 2030.The government is committed to renewable energy expansion however,to ensure the countrys continuous energy security and stability of energy supply.Egypt has a long history wi

213、th wind energy,having first developed projects in the early 1990s.Its wind industry was boosted through the World Bank and foreign government support in 2014,with Denmark and Japan providing wind turbines and expertise.Egypt has a large wind energy potential,with high wind speeds along the Red Sea c

214、oast and the Gulf of Suez.Its wind capacity is expected to reach 7 GW by the end of 2022 making it an important contributor to its electricity energy mix.Egypt currently has 1,700 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC to install around 250-700 MW per year under a business-as-

215、usual scenario between 2023 to 2027.Under an accelerated transition scenario,if barriers to policy frameworks,transmission infrastructure and permitting schemes are resolved,Egypt could install 45%more onshore wind energy capacity in the next five years.Energy mix and targetsThe Paris agreement was

216、ratified by Egypt on 29 June 2017,with targets of net GHG emission reductions of 22%by 2022 and 42%by 2035 conditional on international support,though these vary by sector.Egypt has a target of wind making up 14%of the electricity mix by 2035.Relevant targets are shown in Table 6.It is uncertain whe

217、ther Egypt will meet these targets,in particular the target of 14%share of wind capacity in the electricity mix by 2035.A sharp increase of focus and resource in expanding wind capacity will be COUNTRY STUDYEgyptEgypt currently has 1,700 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC

218、to install around 250-700 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario between 2023 to 2027.GWEC.NET41required by government agencies and the private sector.The share of fossil fuels in the electricity energy mix has increased over the past two decades,rising from 05000%20%40%60%80%100%

219、Electricity generated(TWh)Share of electricity mixSource:IEANatural gasHydroWindSolar PVTotalTable 14 Egypt electricity energy mix by source.Table 6 Egypt targets.Egypt 2030 targetsReduction of emissions intensity compared to BAU scenario(NDC as of July 2022)33%(in power generation,transmission and

220、distribution)Share of non-fossil fuel sources in installed electricity capacity mix42%(2035)Share of wind capacity in electricity mix14%(2035)around 77%in 1990 to 88%in 2020.Natural gas use has increased sharply since 2015,replacing oil.Meanwhile,the use of renewable energy sources including hydro h

221、as stayed relatively constant in this timeframe.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies42Economic stimulus and laws for clean energyLaw 203,introduced in 2014 and assisted by the World Bank,has helped encourage private investment in renewables.There remains con

222、cerns from foreign investors however,due to the slow and bureaucratic nature of the permitting process.The General Authority for Freezones and Investment(GAFI)issues so-called“golden licenses”.These are single-approval licenses that allow some investors to secure a single document that covers land a

223、llocation,building licencing,and operations.Projects eligible for these licences must remain compliant with the usual regulatory requirements but the process spares developers from having to seek individual approvals from different entities.Renewable energy projects are eligible for these projects,a

224、s are green hydrogen and desalination projects.Eligibility requirements for projects seeking GAFI licenses include:A 50%local content quota An ability to export 50%of output from the project,and A reliance on financing from foreign funders and investors.Current barriers to wind energyBankabilityWind

225、 developers in Egypt have expressed concern that the Government tariffs to support wind projects continue to reduce when global wind energy supply chain costs are rising,making the economics of new projects challenging.Energy over-supplyPeak electricity demand in Egypt stands at around 30 GW,however

226、 there is currently 60 GW of generation capacity operational in the country,the majority of which is from dispatchable sources like gas and hydro that can be switched off and on according to market demand.The Government has moved to prioritise the development of renewable energy projects by cancelli

227、ng the development of non-renewable power plants,however,there is no urgent supply need for the country to increase the size of its intermittent renewables generation capability,which limits incentives for developers and investors.GWEC.NET43Lack of competition in offtake marketThe Egyptian energy se

228、ctor is largely a single-buyer market.The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company(EEHC)owns almost all transmission and distribution assets.Meanwhile,the state-owned company Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company(EETC)executes power purchase agreements with public and private generation companies,an

229、d sells power to the nine main distribution companies in Egypt.Egyptian legislation does not allow private offtake agreements for projects over 20 MW,which means the larger and more economic wind projects can struggle to find a route to market.The government has taken steps to liberalise its energy

230、sector,but progress has been slow.Case study West Bakr Wind Farm9 SGRE,Egypt:Wind brings clean energy,growth and hope,November 2020,available online at:https:/ The West Bakr Wind Farm is located 30 km away from the historically oil producing town of Ras Ghareb,Egypt.The areas high wind speeds give t

231、he wind farm the potential to produce of 262 MW of energy.Project installation started in 2020 and commercial operation began 2021,an impressive one-year turnaround for construction.Turbines were supplied by Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy(SGRE).Lekela Power completed the PPA with the Egyptian Elect

232、ricity Transmission Company and the New and Renewable Energy Authority(NREA)in February 2019.The project created opportunities for local employment and boosted socio-economic activity in the Ras Ghareb and surrounding areas.During construction peak,up to 550 people were employed,with over 25%of the

233、wind farm being constructed by those from the local region.9 In regions where an oil industry once thrived,clean energy jobs have been created,providing a significant boost to the local economy.The West Bakr Wind Farm mitigates 550 MT of CO2 emissions annually and produces 1000 GWh of clean energy p

234、er year to the region.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies44Recommendations for wind acceleration The Government should continue to increase or at least maintain the level of tariffs that support wind energy.This will improve investor confidence that Egypt h

235、as the correct economic conditions for continuing to increase wind capacity in the country.Accelerate the electrification of transport and industry,and interconnections between neighbouring countries.This will further increase electricity demand as well as the means to export electricity,and so incr

236、ease the incentive to increase renewables capacity,which requires more urgency.Allow private offtake agreements for larger wind projects.This will increase the possible route to markets for projects over 20 MW and increase investor confidence and incentives to develop wind capacity.Larger projects w

237、ill also allow for a greater amount of the wind energy supply chain to be set up in the country,creating further jobs and local investment.Project pipeline scenarios The methodology for these scenario forecasts is in Appendix A.In the business-as-usual scenario we forecast that 2.6 GW of wind capaci

238、ty will be installed between 2023 and 2027.If wind is accelerated and barriers are removed,we forecast a fast acceleration of wind capacity from 2025 which would result in almost 4 GW being installed between 2023 and 2027 a potential upside of over 1 GW.The greatest difference is seen in 2027,and th

239、is trend is expected continue past 2027.GWEC.NET45Figure 15 shows the forecast pipeline in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.20232024202520262027Capacity installed(GW)Year of installationBusiness as usualWind acceleration0.00.51.01.5Table 15 Forecast of installed capacity in Egypt in the two s

240、cenarios.Table 7 shows the forecast installed capacity in MW in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.Table 7 Forecast of installed capacity in Egypt in the two scenarios.New wind installed capacity(MW)20232024202520262027Business as usual250250700700700Wind acceleration26327591010501260Capturing

241、green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies46scenario by supply chain category.Examples of occupations across different segments of an onshore wind farm can be found in the Appendix B.In the wind acceleration scenario,96,000 direct and indirect FTE job years are created from

242、 wind energy in Egypt between 2023 and 2027 in the development,construction,and installation phase.In addition,12,000 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.20232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Tho

243、usands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400 10 20 30 40 507.88.123.624.418.8Table 16 FTE years created in the business-as-usual scenario in Egypt.Impacts analysisIn the business-as-usual scenario,70,500 direct

244、 and indirect FTE job years are created by wind energy in Egypt between 2023 and 2027 in the development,construction,and installation phase.In addition,6,700 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 16 shows the annual FTE

245、 years created in the business-as-usual GWEC.NET4720232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thousands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative8.2 8.9 30.6 36.7 33.8 -20 40 60 80 100 120 140-10 20 30 40 502023202420

246、2520262027Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 -1 2 3-0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Aunual GVA($billions)Cumulative GVA years($billions)Table 17 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in Egypt.Table 18 Gross value a

247、dded created in the business-as-usual scenario in Egypt.Figure 17 shows the annual FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply chain category.There is a potential upside of 164,000 new FTE jobs created in a wind acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.$1.7 billion

248、 direct and indirect gross value added is created from wind energy in Egypt between 2023 and 2027 in the business-as-usual scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 18 shows the GVA created in the business-as-usual scenario by supply chain category.Capturing green recovery opportunities fr

249、om wind power in developing economies48$2.3 billion direct and indirect gross value added is created from wind energy in Egypt between 2023 and 2027 in the wind acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind 20232024202520262027Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallati

250、on and commissioningO&MCumulative0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 -1.0 2.0 3.0-0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Aunual GVA($billions)Cumulative GVA years($billions)Table 19 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Egypt.farms.Figure 19 shows the GVA created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply cha

251、in category,with a difference of$600 million in GVA over the forecast period.GWEC.NET49Impacts created in Egypt in the business as usual scenarioImpacts created in Egypt in the wind acceleration scenarioA total of 242,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$3.5 billion gross

252、value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms11,400 GWh electricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 6.5 million homes powered with clean energy per year 3 million electric vehicles powered annually from 2027225 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved dur

253、ing the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:49 million cars of the road 2 billion return flights from Cairo to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 6 million trees for 10 years21 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generatio

254、nA total of 406,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$5.6 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms16,500 GWh electricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 9.2 million homes powered with clean energy per year 4.5

255、million electric vehicles powered annually from 2027326 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:71 million cars of the road 3 billion return flights from Cairo to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 8.6 million trees for 10 years31 mill

256、ion litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generationCapturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies50COUNTRY STUDY:IndonesiaCurrent situationHome to the fourth-largest population in the world,Indonesia is a large contr

257、ibutor of GHG emissions,with coal being its biggest energy export as well as accounting for over 50%of its electricity mix.This contrasts its stated Paris Agreement commitments,which outline a long-term strategy of peak GHG emissions by 2030 and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.Indonesia c

258、onsists of several large land masses and islands.As a result,an interconnected national grid system would be challenging.This,combined with the best wind resources located away from large population centres,makes it difficult to accelerate wind deployment.Renewables expansion is necessary,however,fo

259、r energy security.In addition to coal export dependency,Indonesia currently imports a large amount of its oil,and so is vulnerable to volatile market prices.To partly address energy security,the National Economic Recovery(PEN)program ringfenced 3.5%of its budget for support of renewables.This has be

260、en overshadowed by the continued expansion of fossil fuel use,missing an opportunity for wind acceleration and boosting Indonesias reliance on fossil fuels imports.Indonesia aims to meet a large share of its climate commitments through emission reductions,primarily by reducing deforestation levels.T

261、his is expected to contribute to almost 60%of the emissions reductions necessary to meet both conditional and unconditional NDC targets.Indonesia currently has 150 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC to install about 75-100 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario fro

262、m 2023 to 2027.Under an accelerated transition scenario,if barriers to policy frameworks,transmission infrastructure and permitting schemes were resolved,Indonesia could install 26%more onshore wind energy capacity in the next five years.Energy mix and targetsIndonesia ratified the Paris Agreement o

263、n 23 April 2016 through Law No.16/2016,with the target goals of 23%renewables by 2025 and 31%by 2050.It aims to be carbon neutral by 2060,although this is not ratified through any legislation or executive motions.Indonesia currently has 150 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GW

264、EC to install about 75-100 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.GWEC.NET51Indonesia aims to meet a large share of its commitments through emission reductions by reducing deforestation levels.This is expected to contribute to almost 60%of the emissions reductions necessary

265、 to meet both conditional and unconditional NDC targets.Relevant targets are shown in Table 8.Indonesias renewables target is realistic if the rate of renewables expansion increases or remains on course.The 2030 wind target is Table 8 Indonesia targets.Parameter2030 targetReduction of emissions inte

266、nsity compared to BAU scenario(NDC as of September 2022)32%unconditional 43%conditionalShare of non-fossil fuel sources in installed electricity capacity mix23%(2025)Wind capacity in electricity mix1.8 GW07000%20%40%60%80%100%02005201020152020Electricty generated(TWh)Share of e

267、lectricity mixSource:IEACoalOilNatural gasHydroGeothermalBiofuelsWindSolar PVTotalTable 20 Indonesia electricity energy mix by source.unlikely to be met,however,as an extremely large increase in installed capacity is required in a short amount of time.Even if the renewables target is met,the past re

268、cent expansion of the use of coal is concerning and will partly counteract any progress made on renewables,even with a recently announced moratorium on coal.Indonesias electricity energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels,which have increased over the past two decades.The use of renewables has increas

269、ed at a steady rate,but just behind the rate needed to maintain its share of the energy mix as shown in Figure 20.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies52Economic stimulus and laws for clean energyLaw 112 of 2022 seeks to address perceived bottlenecks in the d

270、evelopment of renewables and provide a framework for the procurement of renewable energy.It allows state-owned electricity company PLN to sign offtake agreements up to 30 years in length with generators of selected projects.Potential projects are initially screened to ensure they meet minimum admini

271、strative,technical and financial requirements.Then projects are bid in an auction with a pre-defined ceiling price adjusted by locational factors for projects connecting in different regions of the country.The ceiling price for proposed extensions of existing projects is capped at 70%of the original

272、 project price.PLNs procurement quotas are set by the Minister of Energy and Resources.These quotas use the Governments Electric Business Plan(RUPTL),which sets out Indonesias future electricity capacity and network development plans up to 2030,as the main guideline for procurement.Law 112 also mand

273、ates that no new coal fired power plants can be built in the country and sets out a framework for the early retirement of coal assets.Domestic and international funding is available to support the early retirement of coal power assets via a Clean Energy Fund that can support the development of renew

274、ables projects.Renewable energy projects are also eligible for other forms of government support including import duty exemptions,land availability guarantees,and land and building tax facilities.Current barriers to wind energyInadequate project screeningThere are currently doubts about the delivera

275、bility of the 600 MW of wind energy capacity that PLN has committed to.This is because projects can currently secure offtake deals without having to demonstrate permitting,feasibility or sufficient wind resource.They merely need to be led by entities that meet financial,technical and administrative

276、criteria.This,combined with a lack of penalties for non-delivery,has led to projects that are not credible or GWEC.NET53robust securing offtake agreements.This presents a challenge to Indonesias ability to hit its renewable energy targets and potentially damages trust in the wind industry.Grid plann

277、ingGrid planning in Indonesia is complicated by the nature of the countrys archipelagic geography.This means having a centralised grid is extremely difficult and not practical,making grid planning uniquely difficult in Indonesia comparted to other countries in this study.An opportunity from this wou

278、ld be to implement smaller decentralised micro grids with wind energy as a key generator.This allows for the reliance on fossil fuel generators to be negated and increase energy security within these isolated regions.Government will While the Indonesian Government publicly supports the expansion of

279、renewables,there has been a reluctance to meaningfully invest in wind energy to date due to several factors:Continued focus on fossil fuels,particularly coal production,which is a large source of income for the state Reliance on reducing deforestation as a means to meet climate goals,and Lack of cer

280、tainty on optimal locations for wind projects.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies54Case study Sidrap Wind FarmIndonesia currently has just one utility scale wind farm project,Sidrap wind farm,which came online in March 2018.The 75 MW project comprises of 30

281、 SGRE turbines rated at 2.5 MW which provides power to the Sulawesi PLN grid in South Sulawesi.The Sidrap project was developed in partnership between UPC Renewables and AC Energy Holding,a subsidiary of Ayala Corporation based in the Philippines.This project received funding from the U.S Overseas P

282、rivate Investment Corporation and was completed on time and on budget.The project is in a windy area of the Sidrap region that has a large onshore wind energy potential.10 UPC Renewables,Project details Sidrap Wind Farm,2018,available online at:https:/ ACEN Renewables,Sidrap Wind,2021,available onli

283、ne at:https:/ Wind Farm has been well received by the local community which is supportive of the growth of wind energy in the region.Jobs have been created as a result of the wind farm being built,in both project development and construction sectors.A majority of these jobs have been occupied by the

284、 local people from the Sidrap region.10As of 2021 the renewable energy output of the wind farm had positively contributed towards a reduction in annual emissions of 129,460 MT CO2e.11 GWEC.NET55Recommendations for wind acceleration Broaden pre-qualification criteria to cover project viability.A more

285、 comprehensive set of pre-qualification criteria for participation in procurement rounds would help ensure that Indonesia has a more viable pipeline of projects.These criteria should include metrics related to resource analysis,permitting status,stakeholder engagement status,site control,and procure

286、ment,transportation,and logistics plans.Commission a government-funded study to establish the optimal locations for wind energy projects and ringfence the selected locations for wind development only.This will increase investor confidence as it will signal the government is making a commitment on wi

287、nd energy.It will also give project developers greater amount of time to plan and develop projects as the locations are known further in advance.Increase government spending commitments directed at grid modernisation and expansion to promote a reliable operation and prevent bottlenecks.This is espec

288、ially the case of Indonesia,an island nation,and will help futureproof the system for further low-cost wind additions.Promote diversification of the energy mix and competitive procurement processes to ensure low-cost renewable energy supply to meet decarbonisation commitments.This includes establish

289、ing priority dispatch for renewable energy generation on the grid.Project pipeline scenarios The methodology for these scenario forecasts is in Appendix A.In the business-as-usual scenario we forecast that about 450 MW of wind capacity will be installed between 2023 and 2027.If wind is accelerated a

290、nd barriers are removed,we forecast about 550 MW being installed between 2023 and 2027.The greatest difference is seen in 2027,and this trend is expected continue past 2027.Figure 21 shows the forecast pipeline in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.Table 9 shows the forecast installed capacity

291、in MW in the two scenarios between 2023 and 2027.20232024202520262027Capacity installed(GW)Year of installationBusiness as usualWind acceleration0.00.10.2Figure 21 Forecast of installed capacity in indonesia in the two scenarios.Table 9 Forecast of installed capacity in Indonesia in the two scenario

292、s.New wind installed capacity(MW)20232024202520262027Business as usual75Wind acceleration750Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies56Impacts analysisIn the business-as-usual scenario,8,300 direct and indirect FTE job years are created by w

293、ind energy in the Indonesia between 2023 and 2027 in the development,construction,and installation phase.In addition,950 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 22 shows the annual FTE years created in the business-as-usua

294、l scenario by supply chain category.Examples of occupations across different segments of an onshore wind farm can be found in the Appendix B.In the wind acceleration scenario,10,100 direct and indirect FTE job years are created from wind energy in the Indonesia between 2023 and 2027 in the developme

295、nt,construction,and installation phase.In addition,1,500 annual direct and indirect FTE job years are created in O&M,which continues for the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 23 shows the annual FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario by supply chain Figure 22 FTE years created in the bu

296、siness-as-usual scenario in Indonesia.Figure 23 FTE years created in the wind acceleration scenario in Indonesia.20232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thousands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative1.8 2.5 2

297、.7 2.1 2.2 -5 10 15-1 2 3 4 520232024202520262027Aunual FTE years(Thousands)Cumulative FTE years(Thousands)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative1.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.5 -5 10 15-1 2 3 4 5GWEC.NET57Aunual GVA($millions)Cumulative GVA($millions

298、)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and commissioningO&MCumulative0 200 400 600 800 1,0000 100 200 300133 179 180 136 122 20232024202520262027Aunual GVA($millions)Cumulative GVA($millions)Development and project managementTurbineBalance of plantInstallation and com

299、missioningO&MCumulative20232024202520262027133 188 216 190 195 0 200 400 600 800 1,0000 100 200 300Figure 24 Gross value added created in the business-as-usual scenario in Indonesia.Figure 25 Gross value added created in the wind acceleration scenario in Indonesia.category,with a potential upside of

300、 17,000 new jobs created compared to the BAU scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.$700 million direct and indirect gross value added is created from wind energy in the Indonesia between 2023 and 2027 in the business-as-usual scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 24 shows the GV

301、A created in the business-as-usual scenario by supply chain category.$850 million direct and indirect gross value added is created from wind energy in the Indonesia between 2023 and 2027 in the wind acceleration scenario over the lifetime of the wind farms.Figure 25 shows the GVA created in the wind

302、 acceleration scenario by supply chain category,with a difference of$150 million compared to the BAU scenario.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies58Impacts created in Indonesia in the business as usual scenarioImpacts created in Indonesia in the wind acceler

303、ation scenarioA total of 34,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$1.2 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms1,400 GWh electricity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 1 million homes powered with clean energy per

304、year 0.4 million electric vehicles powered annually from 202723 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:5 million cars of the road 7.6 million return flights from Jakarta to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 0.6 million trees for 10 y

305、ears2.6 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generationA total of 51,000 FTE job years created over the lifetime of the wind farmsUS$1.6 billion gross value added(GVA)to national economies over the lifetime of the wind farms1,700 GWh electr

306、icity produced per year from 2027,which is the same as 1.2 million homes powered with clean energy per year 0.5 million electric vehicles powered annually from 202729 million tonnes of carbon emissions saved during the lifetime of the wind farm,which is the same as:6 million cars of the road 9.5 mil

307、lion return flights from Jakarta to Sharm el-Sheikh Planting and maintaining 0.8 million trees for 10 years3.3 million litres of water saved annually from 2027 which would otherwise be used for thermal power generationGWEC.NET59Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing eco

308、nomies60Morocco hosted COP22 in 2016 and has since launched further reforms to develop its renewable energy sector.This involves a target of producing over half of its energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030,up from around 15%today.As a developing country with low per capita emissions,Mor

309、occo is already implementing measures to achieve its updated 2021 NDC targets.Morocco remains largely dependent on the international energy market,as it imports more than 90%of its energy needs.Achieving energy security has been a top priority for Morocco over the last decade,and current high gas pr

310、ices have greatly increased national energy costs,underscoring the need for Morocco to adopt a more self-sufficient energy policy.The Government of Morocco seeks to increase security of supply by reducing dependence on energy imports,including through the expansion of renewable sources for electrici

311、ty production.Morocco has excellent wind resources,and currently has one of the largest onshore wind fleets on the African continent,after South Africa and Egypt.Installed capacity is forecast to reach 5 GW by 2035,supported by aggressive renewable energy targets.Morocco currently has 1,512 MW of in

312、stalled onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC Market Intelligence to install about 200-510 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.Under an accelerated transition scenario,if barriers to policy frameworks,transmission infrastructure and permitting schemes were resolv

313、ed,Morocco could install 43%more onshore wind energy capacity in the next five years.Energy mix and targetsMorocco ratified the Paris Agreement on the 21 September 2016.It passed the Climate Change Policy of Morocco in 2019,which has the aim to add 10 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030,of which

314、 4.2 GW will be wind and 4.5 GW solar.Further plans aim to have 80%of the energy supplied by renewable energy by 2050.Relevant 2030 targets are shown in Table 10.Morocco hit its 2020 target of achieving 42%renewable energy by 2020 and a 10%growth in renewables out to 2030 seems reasonable.Wind COUNT

315、RY STUDY MoroccoMorocco currently has 1,512 MW of installed onshore wind capacity,and is forecast by GWEC Market Intelligence to install about 200-510 MW per year under a business-as-usual scenario from 2023 to 2027.GWEC.NET61capacity targets may prove more challenging.Morocco was unable to meet its

316、 2020 target for wind energy of 2 GW,though capacity expanded continually up to then,as can be seen in Figure 26.Figure 26 shows Moroccos electricity energy mix is highly fossil fuel dependant,though the share of renewables has been steadily increasing over the past decade.The continued expansion of

317、 coal in recent Table 10 Morocco targets.Parameter2030 targetReduction of emissions intensity compared to BAU scenario(NDC as of July 2021)29%unconditional 45%conditionalShare of non-fossil fuel sources in installed electricity capacity mix52%Wind capacity in electricity mix4.3 GW09182736450%20%40%6

318、0%80%100%Electricity generated(TWh)Share of electricity mixSource:IEACoalOilNatural gasHydroWindSolar PVSolar thermalTotalFigure 26 Moroccos electricity energy mix by source.Capturing green recovery opportunities from wind power in developing economies62years threatens to undo any progress made in r

319、enewables expansion.Economic stimulus and laws for clean energyLaw 345/68(1968)granted Moroccos National Electricity Office monopoly control over energy generators and limited self-generation by industrial sites to 10 MW of capacity,but an amendment in 2008 aimed at encouraging wind energy expansion

320、 raised this cap to 50 MW.Law 13.09/2009 establishes the core mechanism for the production and commercialisation of renewable energy.It allows independent producers to sell electricity from renewable energy projects to the national market,or private consumers connected to the medium and high voltage

321、 grids.Law 57.09/2009 created the National Agency for Solar Energy to manage and promote the solar sector.The remit of this body changed in 2016 when it became the Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy(MASEN).It is responsible for the development of international investments in renewable energy projects

322、as Morocco looks to liberalise its renewable energy market.Energy project development was previously dominated by the Moroccan National Office for Electricity and Potable Water(ONEE).Wind projects in Morocco are largely financed by project finance mechanisms.There are well-developed capital markets

323、in Morocco,primarily local banks.National subsidiaries of international outfits have also supported the development of wind projects.State-backed multilateral climate and development funds,such as the Climate Investment Fund and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,have also backed p

324、rojects in addition to participation from private equity funds.The authorisation process for wind projects is run by The Ministry of Energy,Mines and Sustainable Development(MEM).Developers are able to secure the right to operate projects for 25 years with the option of securing a 25-year extension.

325、Provisional permits enabling construction to commence are released following a technical review.MEM awards final permits after checking installations conform with the provisional consent terms.GWEC.NET63Current barriers to wind energyGrid legislationNew grid codes detailing the technical requirement

326、s for connecting to the grid have been published by MASEN.Turbine suppliers are struggling to meet some of these requirements which is complicating the project development process and delaying projects.New costs for grid usage have been introduced which increase the selling price of electricity for

327、independent power producers,making their projects less competitive against those led by ONEE.Competition with solarLaws currently do not allow wind and solar projects to share grid connection points.Hybrid wind and solar projects are also not allowed.This increases competition for space between deve

328、lopers and reduces the opportunities for cost reductions that co-development of dual technology projects would enable.Offtake mechanismsThe Moroccan Governments tendering of renewables projects to the private sector has been slow.The current legal framework for PPAs puts the obligation solely on pri

329、vate producers to identify companies to enter into agreements with,rather than the government acting as an intermediary.This adds a time constraint and is challenging for developers and means wind projects can struggle to enter PPAs.Case study Midelt wind projectThe 210MW Midelt onshore wind project

330、 came online in 2020.The project came online quickly,with construction starting in 2018 and commercial operation beginning in 2020.SGRE supplied 50 turbines each with a rating of 4.2MW.12This project is the result of a joint venture between Enel Green Power and Nareva.The Midelt wind farm is one of

331、the first in a project pipeline known as Projet olien Intgr,secured by both companies after they were successfully awarded an international tender.13The socioeconomic benefits of the wind farm have been experienced by the local community,with the 12 Power Technology,Midelt Wind Farm,Morocco,Dec 2021

332、,available online at:https:/www.power- Enel Green Power,Midelt,Enel Green Powers best sustainable building site,Oct 2019,available online at:https:/ project employing 500 people,of which 250 came from local communities.Providing local jobs has generated job security and economic growth in the site a

333、rea.In excess of 2000 hours were spent on training workers along the value chain,including in quality,as well as health and safety.Local businesses and communities are also able to benefit from the external benefits facilitated by the investment brought by the project,including the refurbishment of local infrastructure like roads and bridges.The electricity generated from the wind farm offsets 326