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1、10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023Colliers|2023 U.S.Research ReportIntroductionThe U.S.industrial market continued to post strong fundamentals in 2022 and closed the year with positive gains in occupancy,rental rates and construction activity.Core markets across the country have thr
2、ived during this time,building and absorbing millions of square feet of industrial real estate.2023 looks to be another healthy year,despite concerns of moderated industrial activity.While a cooling off period is expected,significant opportunities remain for both investors and occupiers of industria
3、l space.The emerging industrial markets across the country covered in this report provide yield opportunities for investors and expansion opportunities for occupiers.In this report,we will analyze the 10 markets best poised to benefit from this growth,share each areas labor and population demographi
4、cs,discuss logistics advantages,give an insiders perspective on what makes these markets tick and forecast industrial fundamentals for the coming year.Amanda OrtizColliersNational DirectorIndustrial Services|U.S.Stephanie RodriguezColliersNational DirectorIndustrial Services|U.S.2|10 Emerging U.S.In
5、dustrial Markets to Watch in 2023|IntroductionTable of Contents4 Austin8 Charleston12 Las Vegas16 Memphis20 Raleigh-Durham24 Reno-Sparks 28 Richmond32 Salt Lake City36 Savannah40 Stockton/Central ValleyColliers U.S.Research Report|3TexasAustinAustin Matches Record Development with Unprecedented Dema
6、nd4|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|AustinChase ClancyVice President,Austin“Austin remains squarely in the middle of an unprecedented industrial boom,with significant tenant demand supporting extraordinary levels of speculative development.Riding a wave of new,large-scale manufac
7、turing operations and considerable population growth,Austin is well poised for another year of record-breaking deliveries and healthy demand.”Key Strengths:The adage“strength in numbers”is no truer than in Austin,TX,where rampant population growth continues to fuel record industrial demand.In fact,G
8、eorgetown,TX,and Leander,TX both in the greater Austin metro were the two fastest-growing cities in the country in 2022,at a 10.5%and 10.1%annualized rate,respectively.Further,no other city in the country with a population of more than 50,000 grew by more than 10%.One key driver of the industrial de
9、mand and population growth is the citys manufacturing sector,where contracts related to Teslas new“GigaTexas”automotive manufacturing facility and Samsungs new semiconductor factory are abundant.As a result,ancillary manufacturers,suppliers,and third-party logistics(3PLs)are all chasing a piece of t
10、he manufacturing pie.Major Logistics Drivers:Population Growth,Major ManufacturingAustin has long served as a final destination for goods and has largely acted as an inbound supply market,with final-mile deliveries supported by major distribution centers in nearby Dallas and Houston.As such,the Aust
11、in industrial market continues to align along the inbound supply routes from these two major markets.As the market continues to mature,new highway logistics routes are being used,including the SH 130 toll road that runs north-to-south in east Austin,connecting Georgetown,TX,all the way to San Antoni
12、o.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34250 miles25,961,827 7,389,751 50 miles2,759,877 807,655 100 miles6,468,436 1,914,647 Average Warehouse Worker Hourly Wage:$16.30 Colliers U.S.Research Report|5VacancySupply began to outweigh demand in recent quarters for industrial product.Vacancy rem
13、ains relatively tight in all size ranges in the Austin market.In the fourth quarter of 2022,the warehouse/distribution space vacancy rate measured 5.7%and 5%in flex spaces.The overall vacancy rate was 5.5%for the Austin industrial market at the end of 2022,moderately higher than the third quarters 4
14、.3%.The rise in vacancy is partly attributed to new completed industrial space,as supply chain issues settle and developers press on.AbsorptionOccupancy gains of 3.3 million square feet in 2022 were down nearly 50%from the 6.2 million square feet in 2021.The outlook for 2023 is mixed,as the market m
15、ay have some quarters of negative absorption given the sheer volume of supply under construction(and many more projects in planning).This new product should be absorbed in an appropriate time frame;however,the extreme levels of pre-leasing will wane,and the market will return to equilibrium.Developm
16、entDespite uncertainty in the debt and equity markets,developers continued to push forward on new projects,delivering 5.1 million square feet of industrial product,with another four million square feet under construction.Though tenant demand and pre-leasing remained strong,tenants of every size stil
17、l face constrained space availability.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityThe average industrial asking rate of$12.98 per square foot at the end of 2022 was 21%higher year-over-year,following a 31.9%year-over-year increase in 2021.Tight vacancy and high demand have driven rents significantly higher over the l
18、ast two years;however,given the competition for tenants,rent growth will moderate as submarkets recalibrate to the new supply landscape.Investment sales were also scarce in 2022,as is typical in the Austin market,and are forecasted to stay slow,as inflation remains high and capital costs continue to
19、 rise.6|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|AustinHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent201233,832,26811.1%1,057,901 20,000 20,000$5.26 201333,976,9237.5%1,369,349 144,655 424,680
20、$5.66 201434,720,4978.1%484,103 743,574 755,595$6.03 201535,657,8185.2%1,869,703 937,321 1,680,025$6.60 201637,347,4034.9%1,719,107 1,689,585 1,077,084$7.92 201738,544,7197.8%36,427 1,197,316 1,385,953$8.67 201840,112,2428.7%1,043,931 1,545,523 600,568$9.08 201940,728,1829.1%427,503 615,940 568,385$
21、8.86 202041,687,0468.2%1,207,701 958,864 5,255,640$9.45 202146,486,9943.7%6,541,282 4,799,948 4,192,301$11.15 202251,468,7825.3%3,945,995 4,981,788 12,402,491$13.55 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999 SF3.2%
22、2.5%$12.86$13.72 25,000-49,999 SF3.5%3.4%$13.39$13.71 50,000-74,999 SF3.3%1.3%$11.34$12.00 75,000-99,999 SF6.3%6.0%$11.24$17.47 100,000-249,999 SF3.8%10.7%$8.65$12.00 250,000-499,999 SFN/AN/AN/AN/A500,000+SFN/AN/AN/AN/AColliers U.S.Research Report|7South CarolinaCharlestonInfrastructure Investments
23、Drive Market to Record Year8|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|CharlestonMark Erickson,SIORVice President,Charleston“The Charleston market had an incredible year in 2022,and 2023 is anticipated to be even stronger as the next wave of development begins to deliver.Rental growth will
24、 likely slow with more supply,but demand does not appear to be abating and is driven by a combination of 3PLs,manufacturers,and retailers shifting from“just in time”to“just in case”inventory strategies.Further,substantial capital has been invested throughout the Southeast in the automotive sector to
25、 accommodate the shift from internal combustion to electric vehicles.Charleston has Volvo and Mercedes manufacturing facilities and Redwood Materials,a lithium-ion battery recycler that just announced plans for a$3.5 billion plant.It is also the principal port of entry for BMWs manufacturing plant i
26、n Spartanburg,200 miles to the northwest.”Key Strengths:The Charleston industrial market is driven by five factors:1)The Port of Charleston,now 52 feet deep,allows the largest vessels to access the harbor.The port also has invested heavily in a new terminal that opened in 2021 as well as new infrast
27、ructure to move more cargo efficiently.2)The State of South Carolina is investing billions of dollars to remove transportation bottlenecks in the interstate system to efficiently move goods from the port to their destination.3)The Southeast has attracted an influx of capital investment for the elect
28、ric vehicle market.Charleston is home to two OEM automotive manufacturers(Volvo and Mercedes)and a new lithium-ion battery recycling facility.4)The metropolitan areas population is growing much faster than the U.S.average rate and is attracting a disproportionate share of college-educated young adul
29、ts.5)The region has a nearly unlimited supply of developable land along Interstate 26.Major Logistics Drivers:South Carolina PortsThe Port of Charleston has five regional terminals and two inland ports in Greer(Greenville-Spartanburg)and Dillon,South Carolina.The port is at the eastern terminus of I
30、nterstate 26,about halfway between Miami and New York,making it ideal for reaching two-thirds of the U.S.population within a days drive.The port,recently deepened to 52 feet,is the deepest on the U.S.s East Coast.A new container terminal also opened in 2021,creating sufficient capacity for the next
31、several decades.The port is known as one of the nations most innovative and productive,with continual improvements to the infrastructure,allowing more efficient movements each year.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34250 miles20,895,788 5,564,342 50 miles908,054 242,772 100 miles2,378,497
32、 626,699 Average Warehouse Worker Hourly Wage:$15.78 Colliers U.S.Research Report|9VacancyOver the past year,the overall industrial vacancy rate fell 243 basis points,to a historical low of 1.9%for 2022.The rate may temporarily increase in 2023 if new speculative developments deliver simultaneously;
33、however,demand remains strong enough to absorb the new buildings within a few quarters.AbsorptionOccupancy gains of 4.6 million square feet in 2022 were down nearly 50%from 8.7 million square feet in 2021.Absorption in Charleston was still deemed exceptional,considering the low vacancy in the relati
34、vely small market where industrial inventory totals 62.2 million square feet.DevelopmentAt year-end,9.2 million square feet of industrial buildings were under construction in the Charleston market,with much of the development near the Jedburg and Ridgeville interchanges on Interstate 26.Developers c
35、ontinue to target Charleston for new construction due to the limited availability of space near its growing seaport.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityAs vacancy reached historical lows in Charleston,industrial asking rents continued to grow.Overall rental rates are expected to increase as new quality develo
36、pments are added and demand continues rising.Investment sales slowed in the last half of 2022,with the average price for Class A product between$110 and$150 per square foot.10|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|CharlestonHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Va
37、cancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 36,711,837 10.2%572,222 199,495 201,118$3.79 2013 37,042,934 12.1%(422,867)331,097 481,520$3.71 2014 37,556,154 10.4%1,080,486 513,220 616,927$3.86 2015 39,456,904 8.6%2,438,534 1,900,750 1,633,300$4.41 2016 41,280
38、,600 5.8%2,813,323 1,823,696 911,100$4.56 2017 42,944,896 9.7%(123,170)1,664,296 3,669,873$4.93 2018 46,459,377 10.3%2,906,332 3,514,481 2,954,173$4.68 2019 49,473,312 10.4%2,653,386 3,013,935 1,790,388$5.47 2020 51,229,200 9.4%2,077,791 1,755,888 1,886,160$6.86 2021 57,052,360 9.4%7,976,678 5,823,1
39、60 5,261,888$7.31 2022 61,390,132 1.4%6,162,525 4,337,772 10,501,716$9.09 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999 SF13.4%3.5%$10.40$12.00 25,000-49,999 SF7.4%3.4%$10.84$12.84 50,000-74,999 SF3.8%2.2%$7.50$8.50 7
40、5,000-99,999 SF2.7%0.4%$7.51$8.50 100,000-249,999 SF8.6%1.7%$6.85$8.05 250,000-499,999 SF15.0%0.1%$5.57$10.00 500,000+SF9.1%1.5%$9.60$10.12 Colliers U.S.Research Report|11NevadaLas VegasSouthern Nevada Industrial Development Intensifies12|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Las Vegas
41、Jerry Doty,SIORSenior Vice President,Las Vegas“Despite a slowdown in investment and land sales over the last six to eight months,the Las Vegas industrial market continues to thrive,with record-setting lease rates and all-time low vacancy.There is a push from companies expanding or relocating to the
42、market,as Las Vegas has become a strategic West Coast distribution hub.”Key Strengths:Southern Nevada offers a competitive tax structure and a friendly business climate,as well as excellent access to interstates and highways,including the new I-10 linking Las Vegas with Phoenix,AZ,and making it a li
43、nk in the Canamex corridor.Furthermore,the areas proximity to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,the Union Pacific railroad,and other major trade routes like Interstate 40 and the BNSF Railroad make Southern Nevada an ideal place for a Western distribution facility.And the Valleys population of
44、 2.3 million hosts close to 40 million visitors most years.Major Logistics Driver:Las Vegas“Strip”The leading logistics drivers in Southern Nevada are the areas rapidly expanding population and the nexus of I-10,I-15,and US93/95 in the Valley.The Las Vegas resort corridor is a key destination for th
45、e Valleys logistics infrastructure,with close to 40 million visitors a year.As developable industrial land comes off the market,developers are now looking north to Apex and south to the El Dorado Valley and Jean.250 miles26,126,734 7,535,098 50 miles2,332,079 636,659 100 miles2,532,349 674,168 2023
46、Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34Average Warehouse Worker Hourly Wage:$18.65 Colliers U.S.Research Report|13VacancyVacancy decreased to 1.6%in the fourth quarter of 2022,down from 2.3%one year ago,indicating a clear lack of supply in the area while demand remains high.However,at year-end th
47、e Valley had its first quarterly vacancy increase in more than two years,up over an all-time low of 1.3%in the third quarter.AbsorptionIndustrial net absorption totaled 7.4 million square feet in 2022,down from the record-shattering year of 2021 but still one of the highest net absorption figures in
48、 a decade.E-commerce-driven logistics continues to be very important to the Valley,but demand by light manufacturing firms is also rising.DevelopmentIndustrial deliveries of 6.5 million square feet in 2022 were nearly all new supply in the form of warehouse/distribution space,and the lions share was
49、 in the North Las Vegas market.Another 7.1 million square feet of industrial space was under construction at the end of 2022,a record for the Valley.Development has primarily occurred near the Las Vegas Speedway but is now moving further north and south.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityOverall industrial a
50、sking rental rates increased significantly at the end of 2022,to$14.40 per square foot,24%higher year-over-year.The meteoric rise in asking rents is likely curbing the markets appetite for space and impacting businesses facing economic headwinds,ranging from interest rate hikes to predictions of a r
51、ecession in 2023.14|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Las VegasHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 110,459,355 14.7%770,133 196,129 533,442$5.84 2013 111,121,797 12.0%3,6
52、66,421 662,442 610,142$6.26 2014 112,217,366 8.8%4,483,885 815,569 708,705$6.71 2015 113,570,298 5.8%4,607,309 1,364,178 2,064,602$7.62 2016 116,790,435 5.9%3,007,060 3,273,777 3,866,685$7.99 2017 123,324,165 4.5%7,787,519 6,533,730 2,557,701$8.10 2018 128,064,442 3.7%5,561,047 3,709,720 5,432,911$8
53、.55 2019 133,465,783 4.1%4,752,451 5,351,044 5,523,893$8.91 2020 141,583,412 6.2%4,720,716 6,947,393 1,665,322$8.32 2021 147,984,169 2.3%11,861,778 6,184,508 5,997,338$9.79 2022 154,481,911 1.6%7,443,956 6,497,742 7,060,158$14.37 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate
54、 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202215,000-24,999 SF3.1%2.6%$12.17$14.21 25,000-49,999 SF3.7%2.2%$11.54$13.71 50,000-74,999 SF2.0%2.3%$12.25$15.04 75,000-99,999 SF3.2%1.8%$15.59$13.52 100,000-249,999 SF2.6%1.5%$10.81$13.77 250,000-499,999 SF3.2%0.7%$10.73$30.00 500,000+SF0.2%0.2%$10.50$21.3
55、4 Colliers U.S.Research Report|15TennesseeMemphisMemphis Entices Top Developers While Location and Infrastructure Drive the Market 16|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|MemphisTim MashburnSenior Vice President and Principal,Memphis“In 2022,Memphis continued with strong absorption of
56、 12.5 million square feet,proving the market is hitting on all cylinders.Strong occupancy gains continued a three-year run,totaling 38.3 million square feet.Memphis finished 2022 with 7.5 million square feet of new Class A deals and 2.7 million square feet of Class B of more than 100,000 square feet
57、.Five million square feet,or eight total Class A transactions,each topped 400,000 square feet or greater.Given the Memphis markets three-year absorption total,it is also bolstered by 11 national developers building approximately 9.7 million square feet.With continued user growth and the impact of Fo
58、rd Blue Oval City in Western Tennessee,Memphis is poised for growth in advanced manufacturing and logistics.”Key Strengths:The Memphis regional market is centrally located in the U.S.and offers superior operational value and flexibility,specializing in the ability to take products to market and move
59、 raw materials.With an integrated transportation system of road infrastructure,rail mainlines,river ports,and the second-busiest cargo airport in the world,over 27,000 companies have operations in Memphis,including over 400 trucking companies.Millions of square feet of industrial space are under con
60、struction,and the Memphis metro pairs competitively priced lease rates with top-line product quality.Major Logistics Driver:Memphis International AirportMemphis International Airport is recognized as the busiest cargo airport in North America and the second busiest in the world.In 2022,MEM handled a
61、pproximately 8.91 billion pounds of cargo.Due to its popularity for passengers(4.36 million in 2022)and logistics professionals alike,the airport has an estimated annual economic impact of$28.6 billion.According to the University of Memphis,it affects 34%of the citys jobs.With its headquarters in Me
62、mphis,FedEx represents roughly 99%of the airports total cargo and handles more than 180,000 packages every hour at its World Hub at the airport.Being near this hub is key for e-commerce distribution and will continue to draw occupiers to the region for the foreseeable future.The International Port o
63、f Memphis is the second-largest inland port on the shallow draft portion of the Mississippi River and the fifth-largest inland port in the United States.The port is vital to feeding product to Memphis extensive rail network.In fact,Memphis is the third-largest rail center in the U.S.after Chicago an
64、d St.Louis,home to nine fully operational rail yards,with a total current container capacity of more than two million annual lifts.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34Average Warehouse Worker Hourly Wage:$14.74 250 miles17,244,593 4,508,479 50 miles1,441,199 392,296 100 miles2,596,525 695
65、,243 Colliers U.S.Research Report|17VacancyVacancy remained low in 2022,ending at 6.1%,compared to 6.3%in 2021 and 12.2%a decade prior,in 2012.Industrial product under 50,000 square feet and over 250,000 square feet has the lowest vacancy rates for the market.New construction added 8.1 million squar
66、e feet of speculative inventory to the market,with 38%leased at the start of 2023.Class A big-box vacancy in 2022 was 6.9%,with only nine fully vacant buildings available for lease.AbsorptionOccupancy gains totaled 12.5 million square feet at the end of 2022,compared to 14.8 million square feet at t
67、he end of 2021.Market activity remained strong throughout 2022,with deals from national users looking for expansion,relocation,and consolidation.Total market deal size over 100,000 square feet totaled 21.8 million square feet in 69 transactions.Renewals took 33 of the 69 deals,or 9.1 million square
68、feet,while Class A product continued to tighten with 17 new leases totaling 7.3 million square feet.With a high interest from users looking for all blocks of space and developers completing 13 projects by the fall of 2023,Memphis momentum should keep absorption in the black for the coming year.Devel
69、opmentTop national developers continue to move dirt across the Memphis metro area,with 9.6 million square feet underway and another 20 million square feet proposed in four submarkets.New construction in 2023 is expected to deliver over 6.3 million square feet of speculative product between the first
70、 and third quarters of 2023.Big-box,Class A speculative product over 500,000 square feet will deliver five options in 2023 across Southeast,DeSoto County,and Marshall County.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityRental rates are expected to move upward much more slowly in 2023 than the aggressive rate increase
71、in 2022.Slower growth is the forecast for 2023,with proposed construction on pause and just under six million square feet of vacant speculative construction delivering by the third quarter.Nevertheless,Memphis is a market mover with enough happening behind the scenes to make 2023 a top-five sales ye
72、ar for the market.Total investment sales continued steadily,at$924 million for 18.9 million square feet.New Class A cap rates led the market into the 5.7%range.18|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|MemphisHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet Ab
73、sorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 229,478,584 12.2%738,322 1,892,952 1,219,892$2.63 2013 232,772,838 11.3%4,941,822 2,842,098 1,471,232$2.68 2014 236,449,949 11.4%3,013,930 2,622,032 2,204,040$2.81 2015 239,017,515 8.5%9,151,117 2,758,932 1,781,513$2.84 2016 242,6
74、27,506 7.4%6,079,235 3,940,053 2,988,796$3.02 2017 246,349,077 7.0%4,007,478 3,167,531 4,923,984$3.13 2018 252,852,015 6.1%6,895,367 6,617,324 2,097,877$3.16 2019 255,310,278 6.0%4,441,175 3,110,806 9,078,831$3.14 2020 265,202,536 7.7%11,259,499 10,594,383 11,810,198$3.06 2021 279,106,697 6.3%14,753
75、,326 14,684,377 10,185,630$3.80 2022 287,576,505 6.1%11,997,183 8,389,685 9,586,724$4.34 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202215,000-24,999 SF3.8%1.4%$8.88$8.08 25,000-49,999 SF5.5%4.0%$6.06$6.93 50,000-74,999 SF6.7%5.7%$5
76、.68$5.79 75,000-99,999 SF7.9%4.2%$3.47$3.83 100,000-249,999 SF5.2%4.6%$3.84$4.57 250,000-499,999 SF5.8%5.2%$3.98$4.30 500,000+SF8.2%8.1%$3.31$3.80 Colliers U.S.Research Report|19North CarolinaRaleigh-DurhamThe Triangle Industrial Market Looks to Break Records20|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to
77、Watch in 2023|Raleigh-DurhamLang Williams,SIORSenior Vice President,Raleigh-Durham“The Raleigh-Durham industrial market positions itself well going into 2023.Vacancy remains at record-breaking lows,and new industrial product continues to attract interest from a variety of diverse tenants.Large devel
78、opments continue to be announced,and many projects are expected to deliver in the near future.The growth can be attributed to the expansion of the Triangle region,which is quickly developing each year.Leasing remains competitive,and Raleigh-Durham looks to stay resilient throughout 2023.”Key Strengt
79、hs:The continued growth of Raleigh-Durhams industrial market can be attributed to the regions consistent population growth and,therefore,increase in skilled labor.As people migrate to the Triangle,companies in need of warehouse space follow for distribution and manufacturing.This consistent demand h
80、as led to many developments across the region,notably in submarkets such as Johnston County or the I-40/I-85 corridor,which connects Raleigh-Durham to Greensboro.Moreover,with e-commerce companies,among other industrial sectors,needing distribution warehouses and the vacancy rate falling to historic
81、al lows,the demand for warehouse product doesnt show signs of slowing.Major Logistics Driver:Population Growth and Interstate HubAs Raleigh-Durham continues to grow,it can support larger distribution facilities and attract manufacturing plants.Some examples include Wolfspeed,which plans to develop a
82、 more than one-million-square-foot facility to make silicon carbide wafers for semiconductor chips,and VinFast,a Vietnamese carmaker that has chosen Raleigh-Durham as its first U.S.location.Raleigh-Durham also sits at the intersection of interstates I-40 and I-85,a quick drive to the growing Port of
83、 Wilmington and Richmond,respectively.As more companies take root in Raleigh-Durham,the region becomes more attractive,and its consistent growth points toward it becoming an industrial hub for the Southeast in the future.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34Average Warehouse Worker Hourly
84、Wage:$15.95 250 miles26,126,734 7,535,098 50 miles2,332,079 636,659 100 miles2,532,349 674,168 Colliers U.S.Research Report|21VacancyOverall,the vacancy rate remained stable in 2022 at 3.5%,as absorption increased along with deliveries.While many developments will deliver in 2023,demand is strong en
85、ough to avoid a significant jump in vacancy.AbsorptionDirect net absorption totaled 2.1 million square feet in 2022,maintaining the upward trend set in recent years.Many developments delivered pre-leased,contributing to this number,and high absorption is expected again in 2023.DevelopmentRaleigh-Dur
86、ham received just over two million square feet of deliveries in 2022,with 85%warehouse and distribution product.Under-construction volume also increased,to 1.9 million square feet at the end of the year.Many projects are expected to deliver in 2023.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityThe average industrial re
87、ntal rate rose 4.4%in 2022 to$11.89 per square foot.Sales volume and price per square foot also increased for the fifth consecutive year,with higher sales volume for Raleigh-Durham.Rents are expected to increase slightly in 2023 due to new projects that will deliver throughout the year.22|10 Emergin
88、g U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Raleigh-DurhamHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 60,758,059 10.8%906,210 386,000 20,850$5.76 2013 60,887,615 9.8%866,419 129,556 191,990$6.28 201
89、4 61,079,605 9.0%546,695 191,990 75,599$5.72 2015 61,372,884 6.7%1,467,687 293,279 1,134,227$6.48 2016 62,434,211 6.4%1,182,129 1,061,327 864,100$7.38 2017 63,298,311 7.0%457,119 864,100 789,445$8.17 2018 64,056,576 4.6%2,068,010 723,265 2,823,886$8.45 2019 64,472,556 3.6%1,060,544 415,980 4,216,725
90、$9.30 2020 68,917,436 4.2%3,887,228 4,444,880 982,584$10.06 2021 70,166,297 3.5%1,705,670 1,248,861 1,364,102$11.39 2022 72,166,819 3.5%2,107,673 2,000,522 1,877,037$11.89 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999
91、 SF2.6%2.6%$13.44$14.88 25,000-49,999 SF3.4%3.2%$12.99$17.25 50,000-74,999 SF1.6%5.3%$10.41$17.34 75,000-99,999 SF7.6%4.7%$14.17$17.45 100,000-249,999 SF4.7%3.1%$11.71$7.39 250,000-499,999 SF2.3%5.2%$4.44$4.95 500,000+SF1.2%0.0%N/A N/A Colliers U.S.Research Report|23NevadaReno-Sparks Northern Nevada
92、,An Emerging Secondary Market24|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Reno-Sparks Chris Fairchild,SIOR,CCIMSenior Vice President,Reno-Sparks“Reno-Sparks continues to be a rapid growth market despite a clear shortage of easily developable land.Industrial tenant activity in the market is
93、 very strong and pacing,if not exceeding,industrial development.Despite a healthy pipeline of new construction,a lack of available inventory makes Northern Nevada a competitive marketplace.”250 miles16,801,626 4,609,462 50 miles741,363 193,104 100 miles1,921,573 467,520 Average Warehouse Worker Hour
94、ly Wage:$16.89 Key Strengths:The overall health and impressive growth of the Northern Nevada industrial market has solidified the areas reputation for best-in-class warehouse,distribution,fulfillment,and manufacturing.The area continues to benefit from its strategic location serving over 60 million
95、people in seven Western states within a days drive.No longer limited to warehousing and distribution,Northern Nevada is attracting a continued influx of high-tech manufacturing and processing companies.Nevada,with the only operating lithium mine in North America,is also home to associated companies
96、such as Tesla/Panasonic,Lithium America,Redwood Materials,Nanotech Energy,and many others.Federal financial assistance in exploration and lithium mining will only push Nevadas explosive growth in the renewable energy field.In the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center,Fulcrum Biofuels has just brought its pil
97、ot plant on line,a state-of-the-art facility that will convert household waste into jet fuel.Major Logistics Drivers:West Coast Distribution HubStill at the center of the map for West Coast distribution,Reno continues to benefit from easy access to the California market.A friendly tax climate,afford
98、able energy,ample water,and an excellent quality of life will continue to attract new tenants and relocation from challenged markets.At the heart of the Reno-Sparks industrial market,the intersection of Interstate 80 east-west and US 395/580 north-south provide distribution access to the entire West
99、 Coast.BNSF connects the market to 32,500 miles of rail track,and the Reno/Tahoe International Airport offers access to 12 airlines serving more than 22 non-stop destinations with approximately 130 daily departures.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34Colliers U.S.Research Report|25Vacancy
100、After a record-low rate of 0.6%in the middle of 2022,vacancy began to float back up as new deliveries relieved some continued tenant demand.Though vacancy ticked up to 1.5%at the end of the year,much of the empty space is in a few buildings.Renos industrial market remains one of the tightest in the
101、nation,with space constraints within large warehouse and distribution buildings.AbsorptionOccupancy gains reached 6.7 million square feet in 2022.Some large industrial deals were signed during the year as Redwood Materials moved into an 815,000-square-foot space in Fernley and signed a lease for ano
102、ther 670,000 square feet in TRIC,WebstaurantStores took down 693,000 square feet in TRIC,and Solaris occupied a nearly 375,000-square-foot space in Sparks.Demand for industrial space was high throughout 2022,and a general lack of available inventory made securing space difficult for some tenants.Dev
103、elopmentIn Northern Nevadas industrial market an incredible 7.4 million square feet of warehouse,distribution,manufacturing,and flex space delivered in 2022.Renos industrial pipeline has 6.6 million square feet of industrial product under construction and another eight million square feet in the ear
104、ly planning stages.However,funding for these planned projects will largely depend on capital trends this year.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityContinued tenant demand and scarce availability pushed average direct asking rates up 44.6%year-over-year,to$11.83 per square foot.With potential slowdowns in const
105、ruction,rents are expected to continue to climb in 2023.Investment also slowed dramatically in 2022,with$348 million in annual sales,after$1.1 billion in 2021.26|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Reno-Sparks Historical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNe
106、t AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 75,326,356 10.2%1,197,571 622,271 N/A$3.96 2013 75,326,356 9.3%680,310 N/A 534,800$3.96 2014 76,638,166 7.4%2,633,347 1,311,810 4,634,636$4.20 2015 80,904,302 9.2%1,957,307 3,705,286 7,439,172$4.20 2016 86,573,867 9.7%6,156,37
107、3 4,836,012 4,424,452$4.56 2017 87,328,319 7.2%3,714,429 2,361,257 4,867,763$4.92 2018 89,666,090 7.0%2,159,309 2,434,964 5,865,316$4.80 2019 96,539,526 7.3%3,249,172 3,487,904 2,822,779$5.04 2020 98,947,363 4.4%5,401,894 2,393,934 2,373,820$6.12 2021 101,958,911 1.1%5,716,821 1,914,513 5,836,454$8.
108、16 2022 110,890,774 1.4%6,733,546 7,408,534 6,375,554$9.84 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999 SF1.3%21.2%$12.12$16.80 25,000-49,999 SF1.2%1.4%$10.65$15.00 50,000-74,999 SF1.0%1.1%$9.33$13.20 75,000-99,999 S
109、F2.4%1.5%$6.96$11.40 100,000-249,999 SF1.9%1.5%$8.91$10.20 250,000-499,999 SF1.4%1.5%$5.91$8.64 500,000+SF2.6%1.5%$4.89$8.04 Colliers U.S.Research Report|27VirginiaRichmondRichmond Positions as a Regional Distribution Hub28|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|RichmondMatt Anderson,SI
110、ORExecutive Vice President,Richmond“Market fundamentals have remained extremely healthy due to steady user demand and limited availability of sites ready for development.Therefore,as long as demand remains stable,healthy rent growth is forecasted to continue through 2023.”Average Warehouse Worker Ho
111、urly Wage:$15.88 Key Strengths Between its Mid-Atlantic location,port terminal expansions,access to I-95,and the availability of labor,Richmond is well positioned as an East Coast emerging logistics hub.The market provides two-day parcel service up and down the East Coast,is in the northernmost righ
112、t-to-work state,and caters to a variety of users ranging from e-commerce to food and beverage manufacturing.Retailers continued the momentum,bringing more than one-third of the total leasing to the market in 2022,especially in new construction buildings.On the economic development front,LEGO Group a
113、nnounced a$1 billion investment to open its first LEGO manufacturing facility in the United States in the Richmond market.At full buildout,it will be 1.7 million square feet and bring nearly 1,800 jobs.Major Logistics Driver:Port of Virginia and Central Virginia LocationRichmonds location is near th
114、e center of the Commonwealth of Virginia,and its proximity to the Port of Virginia puts it in a prime position as a burgeoning logistics hub and place of intermodal transport.The Richmond Marine Terminal along I-95 and the James River provides dual cargo transportation service.Richmonds location nea
115、r the center of the East Coast and access to major arterials results in a two-day drive to reach 50%of the US population.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34250 miles39,886,836 10,444,013 50 miles1,660,764 437,414 100 miles8,418,604 2,317,170 Colliers U.S.Research Report|29VacancyVacancy
116、has maintained sub-3%levels over the past 24 months and is projected to gradually decrease as new product continues to lease up.Fifty percent of leases signed in the fourth quarter of 2022 were pre-leases.With elevated construction and leasing velocity levels,vacancy will steadily continue to fall.A
117、bsorptionOccupancy gains reached record levels over the last year with 7.3 million square feet absorbed,6%of existing inventory,and 2.7 million square feet absorbed during the fourth quarter alone.With solid leasing,both new and existing product continues to benefit from buoyant demand throughout th
118、e market.DevelopmentIndustrial development throughout the market remains strong,with 5.7 million square feet under construction at the end of 2022.Of this,nearly 3.2 million square feet is speculative projects,and the rest are build-to-suit.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityDriven by stable leasing and with
119、 limited blocks of space,asking rents climbed over 23%,to$6.71 in the past 12 months,as new high-quality product is continuously added.Investment sales volume has increased at a record rate,along with per-square-foot price.Last years more than$727 million in industrial sales volume was more than dou
120、ble the five-year average.30|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|RichmondHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 105,564,437 8.8%2,422,734 2,157,240 538,302$3.86 2013 106,263,1
121、17 6.9%2,533,190 538,302 1,440,992$3.92 2014 105,501,807 6.2%1,171,396 404,200 1,549,452$4.01 2015 107,231,949 5.6%2,021,829 1,447,452 1,758,800$3.82 2016 110,805,821 4.8%1,932,033 1,554,000 1,357,333$4.75 2017 110,761,659 3.4%2,111,382 1,393,376 1,415,885$4.91 2018 111,197,982 3.4%1,624,240 1,697,8
122、85 867,070$5.06 2019 110,603,146 3.0%1,650,808 1,259,580 1,578,937$5.11 2020 111,011,100 3.4%1,599,318 2,050,117 1,167,919$5.10 2021 117,374,873 2.5%1,867,590 1,019,919 8,146,353$5.92 2022 123,648,630 2.7%7,282,454 7,692,660 5,700,370$6.77 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Va
123、cancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999 SF1.3%3.9%$7.62$6.92 25,000-49,999 SF1.7%2.1%$7.80$8.23 50,000-74,999 SF2.0%1.1%$6.46$6.77 75,000-99,999 SF3.2%2.7%$7.93$9.15 100,000-249,999 SF3.1%2.6%$6.30$7.32 250,000-499,999 SF5.5%3.5%$5.09$6.01 500,000+SF1.4%3.1%$4.20$5.76 Co
124、lliers U.S.Research Report|31UtahSalt Lake CitySalt Lake Showing Signs of Resilience and Optimism for Continued Growth 32|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Salt Lake CityRandy Atkin,CCIM Vice President,Salt Lake City“Due to its location at the Crossroads of the West,the Salt Lake C
125、ity industrial market has attracted explosive growth in the logistics,e-commerce,and manufacturing sectors.It boasts excellent highway,rail,and air access.”2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34250 miles4,298,392 1,279,833 50 miles2,695,138 821,822 100 miles3,034,730 927,535 Average Warehou
126、se Worker Hourly Wage:$16.44 Key Strengths:Utahs economic fundamentals are still strong,and Salt Lake City continues to attract institutional clients for viable options to develop new industrial product.Owners and developers invest in Utah for modern industrial facilities,low unemployment,and an edu
127、cated and diverse workforce.Utahs manufacturing industry represents approximately a third of all U.S.industrial users,and Utah was listed as the 10th-best state for manufacturing.Overall,manufacturing supports one-fifth of all Utah jobs and one-quarter of Utahs total GDP and earnings,solidifying the
128、 Salt Lake City area as a prime location for industrial activity.Another 2.6 million square feet of industrial construction completed during the fourth quarter,adding to the years 10.7 million square feet of absorption in Salt Lake County.Vacancy rates are inching upward,which allows industrial tena
129、nts to find more available options.Major Logistics Drivers:Salt Lake combines rail,a remodeled airport,major highway infrastructure,and a possible inland port on the wayThe Salt Lake Valley is at the intersection of two major highways,I-15,a main thoroughfare between Mexico and Canada,and I-80,which
130、 connects the West Coast to the Central United States.Its infrastructure and central location allow distribution companies to service nearly all major cities west of the Mississippi River in less than 18 hours.Its the first rail intersection between all major West Coast seaports and is the home of t
131、he Utah Inland Port Authority(UIPA).The area boasts an expansive road and rail infrastructure,a new airport,a new 850,000-square-foot UPS regional processing facility,and numerous industrial parks.A possible inland port is on the way,and Utah is now considered the“Crossroads to the West”and only a d
132、ays drive from the Los Angeles port.Colliers U.S.Research Report|33VacancyStrong development in the Salt Lake City market led to overall vacancy in the area rising 94 basis points year-over-year to 2.65%at the end of 2022.It is expected to continue to rise,however,as projects in the industrial pipel
133、ine finish in 2023.AbsorptionOccupancy gains more than doubled year-over-year and reached 25 million square feet in 2022.Walmart opened its new fulfillment center totaling more than one million square feet to support its growing e-commerce business,in line with retailers across the U.S.striving to c
134、apture a greater market share of profitable e-commerce.Overall,the outlook for 2023 is optimistic,although fading demand could hinder the robust leasing in the area.DevelopmentIndustrial product under construction totaled 14.5 million square feet at the end of 2022;however,new groundbreakings will s
135、low in 2023 due to economic uncertainty and steep construction costs.The NorthWest submarket remains the most active one in the Salt Lake City region and continues to lead in big-box construction and absorption.The South West submarket also continues to draw new industrial tenants looking to expand
136、or relocate to Salt Lake City.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityIndustrial asking rates increased 17%year-over-year,to an overall average asking rate of$9.84 per square foot.As demand continues for modern industrial warehouse/distribution space,rates are expected to rise further as new product is completed.
137、34|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Salt Lake CityHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 114,680,037 8.8%701,251 850,000 1,537,000$4.44 2013 118,246,575 7.9%4,507,588 1,280
138、,601 1,423,000$4.68 2014 118,082,779 7.0%772,672 2,562,735 2,562,735$5.28 2015 137,099,887 6.3%1,947,131 2,584,500 1,600,000$5.40 2016 138,306,792 5.1%1,967,069 1,813,793 2,041,600$5.64 2017 138,986,843 4.3%3,970,641 1,732,633 4,354,883$5.88 2018 123,479,292 4.0%3,013,185 4,516,387 3,450,962$5.76 20
139、19 124,954,740 3.6%3,484,665 3,760,115 5,930,181$5.88 2020 130,671,915 4.1%5,124,512 6,223,251 8,900,388$6.36 2021 135,311,243 2.2%9,414,574 8,946,855 13,219,547$8.41 2022 144,407,887 3.2%8,278,588 14,548,193 9,493,617$9.84 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022A
140、sking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 20225,001-20,0000.5%4.7%$8.76$10.92 20,001-50,000 SF2.2%1.7%$7.80$10.56 50,001-100,000 SF2.2%1.6%$7.20$9.36 Over 100k SF2.6%4.7%$7.08$8.88 Colliers U.S.Research Report|35GeorgiaSavannahSavannah Industrial Market Continues a Strong Growth Trajectory36|10 Emerging U.
141、S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|SavannahHilary ShipleyPrincipal,Savannah“2022 was a banner year for Savannah and its industrial market,with record absorption and construction deliveries and continued vacancy of less than 1%.This year will feel different because of rising interest rates and con
142、sumer spending habits due to inflation,but the absorption rate so far in 2023 is strong,and Savannah is expected to continue to outperform other port markets.”250 miles25,348,157 6,813,192 50 miles823,309 242,458 100 miles2,246,595 620,838 Average Warehouse Worker Hourly Wage:$15.06 Key Strengths:Wh
143、ile inflation and a shift in consumer spending toward services such as restaurants and travel have affected the total U.S.container trade,the Port of Savannah continues to outperform the national market.The local industrial real estate market is still thriving and is the top growth market in the U.S
144、.in terms of net absorption as a percentage of total inventory(16.7%).The port is moving container volumes now that it did not expect to reach until 2025,and,as a result,spurs strong demand for warehouse space,and vacancy rates remain below 1%.All the significant investments in local infrastructure,
145、both on-and off-port,and the availability of well-located sites for more development,will continue to pay off for Savannah.And the effects of the$5.54 billion Hyundai electric vehicle plant now under construction are just beginning to be felt.Major Logistics Driver:Georgia Ports AuthorityThe primary
146、 driver of the Savannah market remains the Georgia Ports Authority,as the Port of Savannah continues to rank as one of the nations fastest growing and most efficient deep-water ports,with two modern,deep-water terminals:Garden City Terminal and Ocean Terminal.In the 2022 fiscal year,the Port of Sava
147、nnah was named the third-busiest container gateway in the U.S.,at 5.89 million TEUs.The Authority plans to renovate Berth 1 at Garden City Terminal to handle more than 16,000 TEU vessels,expand the 90-acre Garden City Terminal West,and transition Ocean Terminal to an all-container facility.This will
148、 allow the Port of Savannah to increase annual capacity from six million to 7.5 million TEUs in 2023,and to nine million by 2025.2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34Colliers U.S.Research Report|37VacancyOverall vacancy fell below 2%in 2022,ending at 1.1%,down 143 basis points from the 2.5
149、%during the same period in 2021.The high occupancy rate is matched by record levels of new development delivered.AbsorptionOverall net absorption climbed to 17 million square feet in 2022,more than double that in 2021,and a record year for the market.Total absorption,as a percentage of existing inve
150、ntory,was 16.7%,ranking Savannah the top growth market in the U.S.DevelopmentSavannah continues to achieve record-breaking development,with 33 buildings totaling more than 19 million square feet under construction.Seven are build-to-suits totaling 4.7 million square feet,and 26 are spec buildings to
151、taling 14.4 million square feet.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityOverall rental rates are expected to increase as new quality developments are added and demand continues rising.Rental rates increased nearly 20%year-over-year,which will be tough to beat in 2023.Investment sales,however,are sure to be affect
152、ed by headwinds from rising interest rates and shifts in consumer spending.Year-end trades were 100 basis points higher than in 2021 at a 4.8%capitalization rate.38|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|SavannahHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet
153、 AbsorptionConstruction CompletionsUnder ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 44,421,300 11.8%1,057,623 295,000 -$3.75 2013 45,302,300 9.0%1,522,659 881,000 450,000$3.75 2014 45,312,300 5.5%1,630,440 10,000 1,013,400$3.95 2015 46,463,950 3.0%2,187,716 1,151,650 3,163,650$3.95 2016 49,742,650 2.4%3,334,66
154、0 3,278,700 5,168,700$4.05 2017 55,459,719 3.0%5,487,334 5,717,069 5,078,792$4.18 2018 60,617,478 3.1%4,348,445 5,157,759 9,222,774$4.25 2019 71,875,992 3.8%9,266,103 11,258,514 5,983,554$4.45 2020 77,524,949 4.9%4,624,788 5,648,957 7,742,997$4.86 2021 84,118,736 2.3%8,320,780 6,593,787 16,984,522$5
155、.10 2022 99,847,587 0.9%16,718,660 15,728,851 19,247,428$6.00 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999 SF0.2%1.1%$9.88$12.00 25,000-49,999 SF2.1%0.3%$6.43$10.00 50,000-74,999 SF1.1%0.0%$6.06$10.00 75,000-99,999 S
156、F4.3%0.0%$5.81$8.75 100,000-249,999 SF0.0%0.0%$5.44$7.75 250,000-499,999 SF1.5%1.3%$4.94$6.50 500,000+SF3.9%1.4%$4.33$6.00 Colliers U.S.Research Report|39CaliforniaStockton/Central ValleyThe Central Valley is Quickly Becoming the Inland Empire of Northern California40|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Mark
157、ets to Watch in 2023|Stockton/Central ValleyMike Goldstein,SIORExecutive Managing Director,Stockton/Central Valley“The Tracy,Lathrop,Manteca,Stockton,Lodi,and Patterson submarkets are Northern Californias most active and dynamic big-box logistics markets.The labor,location,and logistics are unmatche
158、d in the region.”Key Strengths:The market benefits from major arterials I-5,Hwy 99,I-580&I-205,connecting with the entire West Coast within one transit day.Multiple ports within 60 miles include the Port of Oakland,Port of Stockton,and Port of Sacramento.As well as ports,San Joaquin County benefits
159、from numerous regional and international airports within an hours drive.Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe Rail Roads both have intermodal facilities within the county.With e-commerce and fulfillment companies rapidly expanding during the COVID-19 pandemic,institutions continue to develo
160、p large,quality high-cube warehouse distribution facilities with excellent locations and the space needed for growth.Major Logistics Driver:Port of Stockton The San Joaquin County/Central Valley submarkets benefit from a range of transportation and logistics drivers,including multiple ports within 6
161、0 miles,Union Pacific and BNSF Intermodal Facilities,numerous regional and international airports,and an Interstate network that reaches the entire West Coast,from Canada down to Mexico.The Port of Stockton is the largest inland port in California,its 4,000 acres featuring more than 7.5 million squa
162、re feet of warehouse space.250 miles17,877,171 4,945,365 50 miles5,165,291 1,429,336 100 miles13,159,793 3,589,830 2023 Total PopulationTotal PopulationAges:18-34Average Warehouse Worker Hourly Wage:$18.49 Colliers U.S.Research Report|41VacancyThe overall vacancy rate for industrial product in San J
163、oaquin County increased 70 basis points year-over-year,to 6%at the end of 2022.Vacancy could rise further in 2023 if new speculative developments deliver vacant,yet occupier demand should absorb the new space reasonably quickly.AbsorptionOccupancy gains of 8.8 million square feet in San Joaquin Coun
164、ty were 23%lower year-over-year.Net absorption on average since 2016 has been 8.6 million square feet per year,compared to a 5.2-million-square foot average from 20092013.Major brands,including Williams-Sonoma,Amazon,Costco,and Lowes,moved into the Stockton/Central Valley market in 2022.DevelopmentS
165、ince 2016,when speculative development in the county re-emerged,total inventory has grown by 30%,to more than 130 million square feet in 2022.A total of 4.7 million square feet of quality high-cube warehouse facilities were delivered throughout the year,with another seven million square feet in the
166、pipeline.Rental Rate&Sales ActivityLease rates have quickly increased,driven by strong demand and a lack of quality space that meets modern users requirements.Due to the rapid growth of lease rates,most landlords will not quote asking rates in the market without an RFP.The institutional growth in th
167、e region has transformed ownership from mom-and-pop to mostly corporate and institutional throughout the market.42|10 Emerging U.S.Industrial Markets to Watch in 2023|Stockton/Central ValleyHistorical Data(Buildings 10k sf+)Existing InventoryOverall Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionConstruction Completions
168、Under ConstructionAsking NNN Rent2012 94,049,012 13.2%1,435,521 29,095 1,017,353$4.68 2013 95,615,825 11.5%2,433,526 1,547,353 1,839,910$4.32 2014 97,772,885 8.3%4,852,042 1,900,060 1,412,371$4.32 2015 98,997,556 8.0%1,619,666 1,481,671 2,366,633$4.68 2016 102,017,749 6.0%4,867,008 3,020,193 3,865,3
169、47$5.52 2017 105,883,721 4.8%4,864,386 3,865,972 7,653,996$6.24 2018 113,993,460 5.2%7,209,014 8,109,739 6,469,278$6.00 2019 119,915,140 6.9%3,629,562 5,500,587 4,028,007$7.08 2020 120,436,752 7.9%4,674,543 5,304,982 4,313,445$6.48 2021 125,105,383 6.0%6,489,702 3,194,588 5,020,591$7.56 2022 129,790
170、,142 6.0%5,662,430 4,684,759 6,989,156$8.40 Year-Over-Year ComparisonOverall Vacancy Rate 2021Overall Vacancy Rate 2022Asking NNN Rent 2021Asking NNN Rent 202210,000-24,999 SF2.1%4.4%$9.00$10.20 25,000-49,999 SF4.6%4.0%$8.40$9.84 50,000-74,999 SF1.8%1.7%$8.16$9.60 75,000-99,999 SF2.3%5.4%$7.80$9.60
171、100,000-249,999 SF5.3%6.1%$7.44$8.88 250,000-499,999 SF8.5%7.8%$6.96$8.16 500,000+SF6.2%6.1%$6.48$6.96 Colliers U.S.Research Report|This document/email has been prepared by Colliers for advertising and general information only.Colliers makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,ex
172、pressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the infor-mation.Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warra
173、nties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and/or its licensor(s).2023.All rights reserved.This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement.Principal ContactStephanie RodriguezNational DirectorIndustrial Services|U.S.+1 305 359