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1、Real Estate MarketOutlook2023VIETNAMTurbulence amidst the RecoveryReal Estate Market Outlook2023CONTENTS01.COMMERCIAL MARKET02.INDUSTRIAL MARKET03.RESIDENTIAL MARKETVIETNAMSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Market performance has recovered after Covid-19 pandemicLimited supply in the CBD area0102Flight to
2、 quality03Economic headwindsFocus on wellness and sustainability 04052022 in ReviewVIETNAM COMMERCIAL MARKET Office MarketREAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2023CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.52022 SnapshotOffice MarketSupplyNLA(sqm)NLA(sqm)Asking Rent(*)US$/sqm/month(*)US$/sqm/monthVacancy Rate(
3、%)(%)GRADE AGRADE BUS$28.7+5.5%y-o-yUS$31.1+2.3%y-o-yGRADE A CBDGRADE AGRADE BGRADE A CBD1,626,048 sqm01 new Grade A:BRG Tower and 01 new Grade B:Epic Tower+27,000 sqmUS$14.5+4.0%y-o-yUS$45.9+7.4%y-o-yUS$62.9+6.6%y-o-yUS$26.0+2.2%y-o-y15.3%-4.1 ppt y-o-y11.2%+1.5 ppt y-o-y6.1%-6.6 ppt y-o-y1,491,169
4、sqm03 new Grade B:CMC Creative Space and Cobi Tower 1&2+41,382 sqmHanoiHCMCNote:(*)Asking rents and Vacancy rate of Grade A office in Hanoi with the introduction of TechnoParkTower would have been US$25.9 and 27.6%Asking rents are exclusive of VAT and Service ChargeSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.6VIET
5、NAM OFFICE MARKETAPAC OfficeRent TrackerCore locations/Grade A CBD in Hanoi and HCMC attract the highest rents and review higher than the pre-HCMCNote:Asking rents are exclusive of VAT and Service Charge.Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.$0$20$40$60$8020192022US$/sqm/month$-$20$40$60$8020192022US$/sqm/mo
6、nthAverage Rent-Grade AAverage Rent-Grade A CBDAdelaideRental Decline AcceleratingRents At Rental Growth AcceleratingRental Growth ModeratingRental Growth SlowingDelhi NCRTaipeiCanberraMumbaiSeoulBangalorePerthSydneyBangkokShanghaiGuangzhouTokyoKuala LumpurShenzhenCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CB
7、RE,Inc.VIETNAM OFFICE MARKETIT/TechHanoi:35%HCMC:27%Banking/Finance/InsuranceHanoi:15%HCMC:16%ManufacturingHanoi:9%HCMC:19%Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Active Tenant Group(40,000)(20,000)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,00020022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022HanoiHCMCRetail MarketREAL EST
8、ATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2023CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.9Vacancy Rate(%)(%)CBDNon-CBDUS$144+36.3%y-o-yPrime asset:Up to US$200-300Non-CBDUS$40+21.3%y-o-y4.8%-8.1 ppt y-o-y13.6%-3.2 ppt y-o-y6.2%+2.2 ppt y-o-y1,096,628 NLA sqm1 new project:Thiso Mall+35,000 NLA sqmNote:Asking rent is calcula
9、ted for ground floor and first floor,excluding VAT and service charge.Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.US$224+44.9%y-o-yPrime asset:Up to US$ SnapshotRetail Market101.Opening of VincomMega Mall Smart CityNam Tu Liem District,HNApril 20222.Opening of The ZeiPlazaNam Tu Liem District,HNDecember
10、 20223.Re-merchandising of VincomCenter Ba Trieu Tower 2Hai Ba Trung District,HNOctober 20224.Renovation of IPHCau Giay District,HN5.Soft opening ofThisoMallDistrict 2,HCMCNovember 20226.Renovation ofDiamond PlazaDistrict 1,HCMCDecember 20220102030511Retail sentiment turns positiveVIETNAM RETAIL MAR
11、KET Note:Figures may not add up to 100%because of rounding.Source:Asia Pacific Retail Flash Survey,CBRE Research,January 2023.Sales revenue forecast for 2023 over 2022CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.VietnamCommercialMarket Outlook 2023VIETNAM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATEWhat landlords must addre
12、ss?Long-term challenges require landlords to change their portfolios to meet a wide range of tenant wants and conditions.Inflation costInflation costSustainabilitySustainabilityEvolving Tenant NeedsEvolving Tenant NeedsDiminishing ReturnsDiminishing ReturnsCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.0
13、%10%20%30%40%$-$20$40$60$80200222023F2024FVacancy RateUS$/sqm/monthRent-Grade ARent-Grade A CBDRent-Grade BVacancy rate-Grade AVacancy rate-Grade A CBDVacancy rate-Grade BVacancy rate-Grade A With TNPHANOIHCMCHow will the office market perform?VIETNAM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE0%10%20%30%40%0
14、20406080200222023F2024FCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.15VIETNAM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATESource:2023 Asia Pacific Retail Flash Survey,CBRE Research,January 2023.Source:Asia Pacific Retail Flash Survey,CBRE Research,January 2023.CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.160%5%10%15
15、%20%25%30%0500300200222023F2024FAsking rent-CBDAsking rent-Non CBDVacancy rate-CBDVacancy rate-Non CBDHANOIHow will the retail market perform?US$/sqm/monthVacancy Rate17Opportunities:Occupier FocusCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.VIETNAM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATECBDMIDTOW
16、NSOUTHWESTRetailOfficeOffice&RetailCBD:Non-CBD:sqm295,100sqmTaisei Hanoi OfficeDiamond Park PlazaOFFICERETAILCBD:sqm261,00027 Ly Thai ToHeritage West Lake19RetailOfficeNORTHWESTCBDHCMC Commercial Supply Pipeline2023-2025Note:Thiso Mall(District 2,HCMC)held soft-opening in November 2022 and schedules
17、 their further launch in 2023.Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Images are taken from the Internet.63,768CBD:Non-CBD:197,314sqmOFFICENon-CBD:65,750109,900sqmVincom Center Grand ParkThe MettThe Nexus20Occupier FocusVIETNAM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATETop 3 Favoured Areas in HCMCAreas with the highest leasing en
18、quiries in 20221.1.1.1.2.2.3.3.CenterCenterSouthSouthCBDHanoi,Enquiries by Area18%48%32%CBDWestMidtownOthers48%19%13%11%9%CenterSouthWestEastNorthCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.2172,000.sqm of NLA in RetailNew leasing spaceby 2024 West of West Lake:45,500.sqm of NLA in OfficeRetailOfficeH
19、ospitalityHeritage West LakeExpected launch:2023Expected launch:2023Expected launch:2024Expected launch:2024Samsung R&DExp.Groundbreaking:2024Exp.Groundbreaking:2024CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.22The forming of residential The forming of residential cluster and recent booming cluster an
20、d recent booming developments of commercial developments of commercial projects in West of West Lake projects in West of West Lake are making this areaare making this area the new the new centrecentre of Hanoiof HanoiSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Images are taken from the Internet.LOTTE MALL HANOIarg
21、est R&D center in SEAOpened in December 202223Thu ThiemNUA:The New CBD in HCMC135,000.sqm of NLA in RetailNew leasing space by 2024 Thu Thiem area:84,700sqm of NLA in OfficeLotte Eco Smart CityNLA:35,000 sqm2 new Grade2 new Grade-A office projects to launch in 2023A office projects to launch in 2023
22、Thu Thu ThiemThiem is a potential highis a potential high-income urban area creating a massive income urban area creating a massive demand for shopping,dining,and entertainment in the East of HCMC.demand for shopping,dining,and entertainment in the East of HCMC.A large number ofA large number of pot
23、ential occupiers from the central area,connecting potential occupiers from the central area,connecting quickly with District 1 via Thu quickly with District 1 via Thu ThiemThiem 2 Bridge,which opened for traffic in 2 Bridge,which opened for traffic in April 2022.April 2022.The MettNLA:30,226 sqmExpe
24、cted completion in 2023CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.24Trends toWatchCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.25Office trendsOffice trendsGREEN BUILDINGSLong-term future-proofing is achievable by placing the workplace in a green building as demand for green credentials increases.HCMC:10
25、 projects have received green certificationHanoi:3 projects in Hanoi have received green certificationFLEX OFFICE SPACES REBOUNDA safe bet in uncertain time for HCMC office market.Will Hanoi market follow the trend?CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.26Retail trendsRetail trendsVIETNAM COMMERC
26、IAL REAL ESTATEPOP-UP STOREDue to limited supply expected to launch in CBD area in thecoming years,retailers seek space in non-CBD areas tolaunch pop-up stores while continue looking for primelocations.Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Images are taken from the Internet.Industrial MarketREAL ESTATE MARKE
27、T OUTLOOK 2023282022 in ReviewIndustrial land:Healthy leasingdemand01Continued interest fromglobal manufacturers,especially electronicsand energy sectors0203Slower global productionposed challenges for thedevelopment of local marketSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,I
28、nc.29Industrial LandCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.30VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Continued Interest from Global ManufacturersAnd also,other global manufacturersElectronics Electronics Manufacturers Manufacturers continued to diversify its production to VietnamQuanta reportedly to set up pla
29、nt inNorthern Vietnam December 28,2022LEGO starts construction of 1-billion-USD factory in Vietnam November 3,2022Source:Archived from respective newspapers,Feb 2023.Samsung,LG plan multi-billion-dollaradditional investment in Vietnam December 6,2022Clothing chain Uniqlo plans 2 stores,factory in Bi
30、nh Duong November 8,2022Hyundai inaugurates 100,000-car plantin Vietnam November 16,202231SON LALAO CAIHA GIANGTHANH HOAHOA BINHTUYENQUANGBAC KANCAO BANGLANG SONBAC GIANGHAIPHONGTHAI BINHBACNINHHANOIVINHPHUCHUNGYENNAM DINHQUANG NINH2022 Northern RegionAccumulated SupplyTier 1:10,300 ha +8%y-o-yTier
31、2:8,652 ha +9%y-o-yNet absorption Tier 1:518 ha 0%y-o-yTier 2:814 ha +35%y-o-y-200 400 600 800 1,00020212022Industrial Land(ha)Tier-1Tier-2Northern Region,Net absorptionIndustrial land Improving absorption in Tier 2 marketsVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET 32HCMCBINH DUONGDONG NAIBINH THUANBR-VTTAY NINHLAM
32、DONGDAK LAKGIA LAITIEN GIANGBEN TREDONG THAPVINH LONGSOC TRANGHAU GIANGAN GIANGVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Southern Region,Net absorptionIndustrial land Improving absorption in Tier 2 markets02004006008001,00020212022Industrial land(ha)Tier-1Tier-2330500300350Ha
33、noiHai PhongBac NinhHung Yen Hai DuongHo ChiMinhBinh Duong Dong NaiLong AnUS$/sqm/leasing termsLowHighAsking Rents,Industrial Land,2022VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Industrial landRentscontinued to grow in both regionsNorthern region:+4%-20%y-o-y$166Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.$120CBRE VIETNAM MARKET O
34、UTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.34Industrial land Notable large transactions recorded in Tier-2 markets in the NorthVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET ProvinceIndustryNationalityTier1/Tier2Size(ha)Bac GiangElectronicsTaiwanTier-250Thai BinhElectronicsTaiwanTier-240Thai BinhRBF OperatorVietnamTier-240Nghe AnElectronicsC
35、hinaTier-236Quang NinhAutomobile and ComponentsTaiwanTier-235Bac GiangWarehouse and RBF developerSingaporeTier-230Hung YenWarehouse and RBF developerThailandTier-126Vinh PhucMechanical/MetalTaiwanTier-225Nam DinhGarment and TextileHongkongTier-224Bac GiangElectrics bikeChinaTier-223Bac NinhLogistics
36、ChinaTier-120Quang NinhLPG+PolypropyleneVietnamTier-220Northern region,Notable transactions,Industrial landSouthern region,Notable transactions,Industrial landProvinceIndustryNationalityTier-1/Tier-2Size(ha)Binh DuongToy/PlasticsDenmarkTier-144Long AnWH&RBF DeveloperSingaporeTier-120 Long AnWH&RBF D
37、eveloperSingaporeTier-120 Long AnF&BUSATier-119Dong NaiWH&RBF DeveloperChinaTier-116Dong NaiWH&RBF DeveloperAustraliaTier-112HCMCSupermarket VietnamTier-112 Tay NinhAnimal feedThailandTier-26 Long AnPharmaceuticalVietnamTier-15 Long AnRetailVietnamTier-13.5 Ba Ria Vung TauLubricantGermanyTier-22 Don
38、g NaiGear partsGermanyTier-12 Long AnPharmaceuticalJapanTier-11CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.35Ready-built Factories and WarehousesCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.36-100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,00020212022sqmRBWRBFVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET RBF and RBW Strong absorption
39、in both regionsNorthern Region,RBF and RBW in Tier-1 marketsNorthern RegionTier 1 markets:Hanoi,Hai Phong,Bac Ninh,Hung Yen,Hai DuongSouthern RegionTier 1 markets:Ho Chi Minh City,Dong Nai,Binh Duong,Long AnSouthern Region,RBF and RBW in Tier-1 marketsNet AbsorptionRBW:+47%y-o-yRBF:+50%y-o-yNet Abso
40、rptionRBW:+59%y-o-yRBF:+81%y-o-ySource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,00020212022RBWRBFCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.37VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET RBF and RBWAmple new supply pressure occupancyNorthern Region,RBF and RBWSupply and Occupancy RatesNorthern RegionTier
41、1 markets:Hanoi,Hai Phong,Bac Ninh,Hung Yen,Hai DuongSouthern RegionTier 1 markets:Ho Chi Minh City,Dong Nai,Binh Duong,Long AnSouthern Region,RBF and RBW Supply and Occupancy Rates0%20%40%60%80%100%-1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000RBWRBFOccupancy(%)Accumulated supply(sqm)2021 Accum
42、ulated Supply2022 Accumulated Supply2021 Occupancy2022 OccupancySource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.0%20%40%60%80%100%-1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000RBWRBFOccupancy(%)Accumulated supply(sqm)CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.38024681012HanoiHung Yen Hai Duong Bac Ninh Hai PhongHCM
43、CDong NaiBinhDuongLong AnMin asking rentMax asking rentAsking Rents,RBW&RBF(*),2022VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET RBF and RBW Mild rental growth in 2023$4.8$4.7Average RentsSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Southern region:+0%-3%y-o-yCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.39RBF and RBW Solar-energy-linked
44、and electronics tenants are active,especially in the NorthVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022ProvinceIndustryNationalityTypeTier1/Tier2Size(sqm)Bac NinhE-commerceSingaporeBuilt-to-suit WHTier-160,000Hai PhongAutomobile and ComponentsVietnamRBWTier-138,000Thai NguyenFloor manufactu
45、ringChinaRBFTier-237,000Bac NinhMechanicalChinaRBFTier-125,000 Bac NinhElectronics(solar panel)ChinaRBFTier-122,500 Thai NguyenElectronicsChinaRBFTier-220,000 Hai PhongRoboticsChinaRBFTier-120,000Hai PhongElectronics(solar panel)ChinaRBFTier-117,000Hung YenF&BVietnamRBWTier-115,000Bac NinhElectronic
46、s(solar panel)HongkongRBFTier-112,400Hai PhongBatteryFranceRBFTier-112,000Hai DuongAutomobile and ComponentsIrelandRBFTier-111,600Northern region,Notable transactions,RBF and RBWProvinceIndustryNationalityTypeTier1/Tier2Size(sqm)Long An3PLJapan/VietnamBuilt-to-suit WHTier-134,000 Dong NaiHome applia
47、nceChinaRBFTier-133,000 Vinh Long e-commerceSingaporeBuilt-to-suit WHTier-229,000 Long AnExpressVietnamRBWTier-222,000 Dong NaiFootwearGermanyRBFTier-119,000 Long An3PLJapanBuilt-to-suit WHTier-118,500 Dong NaiElectricKoreaBuilt-to-suit factoryTier-115,000 Dong NaiFurniture fittingGermanyRBWTier-115
48、,000 Binh DuongLogisticsJapanRBWTier-113,000 Binh DuongFurnitureNetherlandRBFTier-113,000 Binh DuongPackagingUSARBFTier-110,000 Binh DuongLogisticsFranceRBWTier-110,000 Long AnLogisticsVietnamRBWTier-110,000 CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.40Risks and OpportunitiesCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLO
49、OK|2023 CBRE,Inc.41VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Vietnam bracing for headwindsVietnam bracing for headwindsWorld Bank makes big cut to its 2023 January 10,2023December 2,20226,000 workers worried about the factory closing,scarce orders November 8,2022More pain in store for workers as orders remain scarc
50、eDecember 25,2022Lack of orders,industrial production in January 2023 fell sharply January 30,2023January 4,2023Source:Archived from respective newspapers,Feb 2023.CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET But Vietnam Sustained the Position as Top Investment Destinations in
51、 APACSources:2023 Asia Pacific Investor Intention Survey,CBRE Researchwhile Hanoi was also named in top 10 as Vietnam continuedto benefit from its status as a China-plus One destination.End-users,developers and opportunistic investors are all Logistics/Industrial topped the preferred sector for inve
52、stment in 2023.43Players are still keen on expanding and entering in Vietnam marketVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Frasers allots BHT 5 billion for industrial sectorJanuary 11,2023Industrial amid Southeast Asia expansionsJanuary 13,2023Industrial estate firm WHA to invest BHT 50 billionover 5 yearsFebruar
53、y 02,2022Granted VSIP Can Tho Investment Registration Certificate,investment capital of nearly US$160 millionSource:Archived from respective newspapers,Feb 2023.CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.44Continuous infrastructure improvement supports a long-term outlook with more substantial commit
54、ment from the GovernmentSource:Vn.Express,CBRE Research,Feb 2023.The Prime Minister issued an orderto start the construction of theNorth-South Expressway Projectin the 2021-2025 period.January 1,2023It is expected that by 2025,more than 2,000 km of North-South Expresswaywill be completed;after 2030,
55、there will be more routes connecting the East and West,inter-regional.Source:VnExpressCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.45Northern region Infrastructure networks to facilitate expansion of the industrial marketTier-2 marketsNinh BinhHai PhongExpressway(2023 2026)Tier-1 marketsTier-2 marketsH
56、uu Nghi Chi Lang Expressway(2022 2026)Ring Road 4(2023 2026)Van Don Mong Cai Expressway(Completed in 2022)CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.46Southern region Improved connectivity within tier-1 and between tier-1 and tier-2 markets VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Source:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Image
57、s are taken from the Internet.Tier-1 marketsTier-2 marketsTier-2 marketsDau GiayPhan Thiet Expressway(Expected to be completed in 2023)HCMC-Trung Luong My Thuan Expressway(Completed in 2022)My ThuanCan ThoBac Lieu Expressway(Expected to be completed in 2023)Ring Road 3(2022-2025)DT 741 expansion(202
58、3-2025)Nhon Trach bridge(Expected to be completed in 2025)CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Market awaits positive impacts from Chinas reopening China reopening to impact Vietnam economy from mid-2023:economistsJanuary 16,2023VinacapitalDecember 30,2022Vietnam to co
59、operate with China to facilitate entry and goods transportation following reopening:Foreign ministrySource:General Statistics Office of Vietnam,Q4 2022.January 14,2023China BYD electric vehicle manufacturer builds components manufacturing factory in Vietnam and getting into Southeast Asia-500 1,000
60、1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,00020022Number of FDI projectsCapital(USD million)Total registered FDI(USD million)Implemented FDI(USD million)Number of newly registered projectsFDI to Vietnam,2019-2022Top newly registered FDI to Viet
61、nam in 2019Top newly registered FDI to Vietnam in 2019Hongkong ranked 2ndChina ranked 5th48MarketOutlookCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.0500300-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000200222023F2024F2025FUS$/sqm/remaining termIndustrial land(ha)Tier 1-Accumulated Sup
62、plyTier 2-Accumulated SupplyTier 1-Average asking rentsNorthern Region,Industrial Land,ForecastSouthern Vietnam,Industrial Land,ForecastVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Industrial LandSolid demand from manufacturers support rental growthLand prices:7-10%pa for tier 1 5-7%pa for tier 2New Supply(2023 2025F)
63、:9,800haNorthern RegionTier-1 markets:Hanoi,Hai Phong,Bac Ninh,Hung Yen,Hai DuongTier-2 markets:Quang Ninh,Vinh Phuc,Thai Binh,Ha Nam,Bac GiangSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Land prices:5-10%pa for tier 17-13%pa for tier 2New Supply(2023 2025F):3,700ha-50 100 150 200 250 300-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,00
64、0 50,000 60,000200222023F2024F2025FUS$/sqm/remaining termIndustrial land (ha)CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.500123456-2 4 6 8 10 023F 2024F 2025FAccumulated Supply(million sqm)Ready-built Warehouse(RBW)Ready-built Factory(RBF)Rental ratesVIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET RBW
65、 and RBFSlower rental growthSouthern RegionTier-1 markets:Ho Chi Minh City,Dong Nai,Binh Duong,Long AnNorthern RegionTier-1 markets:Hanoi,Hai Phong,Bac Ninh,Hung Yen,Hai DuongSource:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.010122021 2022 2023F2024F2025FUS$/sqm/monthAccumulated Supply(million sqm)Northern Re
66、gion,RBW and RBF,ForecastSouthern Vietnam,RBW and RBF,ForecastCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.51Market OutlookMarket OutlookSource:CBREResearch,Q4 2022.Images are taken from the Internet.Vietnam among top investment destinationsIntentions surveyin 2022.Sustained interest from foreign inves
67、torsDue to limited landbank in prime locations,it is expected to see more robust activities in secondary markets.Active secondary market in Tier-1 locationsTier-2 markets in the North drawattention from manufacturers andRBF developers.Industrial land in Tier-2 markets continued to gain traction,RBF
68、started to followGreenindustrialparksResidential MarketREAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2023CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.53VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSources:CBRE Research,Q4 20222022 in ReviewMULTIPLE HEADWINDS CONSTRAIN THE RECOVERYProperty prices skyrocket after record bids in Thu Thiem Inv
69、estigation into manipulationInvestigation into bond issuance Vietnam central bank continued tightening credit into real estateLimited-term condominium ownership proposed,creating mixed opinionsinterest rate hike in just one month Thu Thiem land auctions were withdrawnCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023
70、 CBRE,Inc.54VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET2022 in ReviewSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022SUPPLYSales rate slowed down in H2 2022.DEMAND Increasing primary prices due to a higher share of high-end products.The secondary market recorded a slowdown at year-end.PRICELeasing momentum has been improving.RENTAL MA
71、RKET55Supply&AbsorptionCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000Q1Q2Q3Q4200222022New LaunchSold UnitsHanoi CondominiumVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022Hanoi Condominium:New launch and Sold units,2019 20222022New
72、 launch:15,132 units-12%y-o-ySold units:16,585 units-2%y-o-y65%of sold 65%of sold units in H1 22units in H1 22The new launch at9-year low,sold units surpassed new supply volume57HCMC CondominiumThe new launch remained at modest level,allowing positive absorptionVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETHCMC Condomi
73、nium:New launch and Sold units,2019 20222022New launch:18,809 units28%y-o-ySold units:18,545 units 25%y-o-y94%of sold units in 9M 2294%of sold units in 9M 2293%of new launch in 9M 2293%of new launch in 9M 22Sources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.Landed Property Robust
74、 new supply in Hanoi from township projectsVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETLanded property,New launch in Hanoi and HCMC,2019 202202,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000H1H2200222022UnitsHanoiHCMC2022 SOLD RATESHanoi 60%HCMC 85%Sources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK
75、|2023 CBRE,Inc.59InventoryUnsold Stock concentrated on Mid-end segmentVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETHanoi Inventory,2022(accumulated)24%70%6%HCM Inventory,2022(accumulated)High-end and LuxuryMid-endAffordable42%28%28%Condo inventory:28,700 unitsCondo inventory:23,150 unitsLanded property inventory:721 u
76、nitsLanded inventory:9,300 unitsCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.60PricingCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.61Hanoi CondominiumPrimary prices continued to increase due to a higher share from the high-end segmentVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022Hanoi Condominium
77、,Primary prices,2019 2022Hanoi Average Primary Price:US$1,934psm+21.2%y-o-yShare of high-end&luxury 5%11%31%56%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00020022Primary Prices (US$psm)Luxury High-end Mid-end AffordableCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.62HCMC CondominiumPrimary prices
78、stayed flat with mid-end segment saw the highest price increaseVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022HCMC Condominium,Primary prices,2019 2022HCMC Average Primary Price:US$2,564psm+2.5%y-o-yShare of high-end&luxury 30%81%70%94%CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.63How develope
79、rs respond to current challengesVIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022Special sales policies to support sales performance:Developers offer up to 45%discount of original pricefor early payment amount settled by buyers01Voucher to buy other products(car,gold,supermarket,etc.).And Othe
80、r discounts on price.02Selected landed projects in Hanoi:Safe investment Buyer can choose to retain the unit or sell back todeveloper at a profit of up to 7.5%pa03CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.64VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSecondary PricePricing in secondary market adjusted slightlyHanoi:C
81、ondominium and Landed Property,Secondary prices,2019 2022Sources:CBRE Research,Q4 202202,0004,0006,0008,000Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q420022Secondary price(US$/sqm)Apartment-for-saleLanded Property-8%q-o-q-3%q-o-qHCMC:Condominium and Landed Property,Secondary prices,2019 20220%q-o-q-2
82、%q-o-qCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.65VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022(*)based on CBRE transactions record onlyBuyer Profile by Nationality,2020-2022Buyer Profile by Purpose,2020-2022Buyer Profile by Unit Type,%16%12%CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE
83、,Inc.66VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETRental marketRental yields recover in both citiesSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022.Notes:The rental yields are gross,surveyed on selected projects only3%4%5%6%7%8%20022Rental yieldsCBDMidtownTay HoWestSouthHanoi:Rental yields improve across locations The West
84、to recover to pre-Covid levelHCMC:Rental yields improve across locations The East witnessed highest growthCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.672023 Market DriversCredit PolicyLegal FrameworkProperty TaxRevised Land Law 01020304CREDIT POLICY2023 Market DriversMAY20222022AUG20222022FEB20232023F
85、EB20232023Tightening credit policy,real estate market Shortage of credit room due to real estatePrime Minister instructed SBV to loose on real estate creditBank simultaneously reduced interest rate,good news for real estate recovery?LEGAL FRAMEWORK2023 Market DriversBschstic9 lu,20 ththnh chnh dts c
86、hcho,khng thnhtrong cc quySEP20192019SEP20222022DEC20222022Legal issues making up 70%of difficulties real estate firms have to faceprocedure rescueReal estate is under the regulatory of 9 laws and 20 administrative procedures,which led to the overlap and inconsistency among regulations.REVISED LAND
87、LAW2023 Market Drivers LAND ACQUISITION LAND SPECULATION PROPERTY VALUATIONPROPERTY TAX 2023 Market Drivers House,land plot that owners do not use to live Property that is for rent or uninhabited Landplot that is received the LURC within 2 years but no construction started Non-agriculture land use t
88、ax;Apply registration fee when buying or receiving transfer from the second property.Proposal 1:Impose taxes on land and houses that owners do not useProposal 2:Increase the fee related to second homeCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.72Market OutlookCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.
89、73VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETHanoi 2023 Future SupplySources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022Townships continueto dominate new supply in HanoiTownship(8 projects,21,000 units)Standalone(7 projects,2,000 units)CBDMIDTOWNEASTNORTHSOUTHWESTMailand Hanoi CityEcoparkVinhomesOcean Park 3VinhomesSmart CityGrandeur Pal
90、ace Pham HungThe Reflection WestlakeCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.74VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETCondominium Future Projects focus on the East and the WestTownship(02 projects,2,000 units)Standalone(18 projects,7,000 units)NORTHSOUTHWESTEAST9X An SuongThe PriviaEco Smart CityFifaCityElysian
91、Celesta GoldThe Global CityHCMC 2023 Future SupplySources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022District 7Vinhomes Grand ParkDistrict 2Hoc Mon WardBinh Chanh WardBinh Tan DistrictDistrict 9Thu DucNha Be WardCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.75VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETCondominium Market OutlookHCMC Condomini
92、um,Forecasted Sold units,New Launch,and Primary PricesHanoi Condominium,Forecasted Sold units,New Launch,and Primary Prices(Units)(Units)(US$psm)(US$psm)Sources:CBRE Research,Q4 202201,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000200222023F2024F2025FC
93、BRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.76VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETLanded Property Market OutlookHCMC Landed Property,Forecasted Sold units,New Launch,and Secondary PricesHanoi Landed Property,Forecasted Sold units,New Launch,and Secondary PricesSources:CBRE Research,Q4 2022(Units)(US$psm)(Units)(
94、US$psm)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00005,00010,00015,00020,000200222023F2024FCBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.77VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKETBottom LineBottom Linefor 2023for 2023Bank Loan:Pressure on interest rates continues01Bonds:More actions requiredto ease the market0
95、2Developers to find new funding sources03M&A activities Time to restructure the portfolio and find more opportunities04CBRE VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK|2023 CBRE,Inc.78For more information regarding this presentation please contact:CBRE Vietnam Co.,Ltd.Research&ConsultingT:+84 28 3824 6125|+84 24 6288 63
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99、red in any way,transmitted to,copiedor distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE.Anyunauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited.CBRE will notbe liable for any loss,damage,cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person usingor relying on informationin this publication.