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1、 FU TU RE TR EN DS 20 23 Foreword The Solactive Research team is proud to present the fourth edition of our annual Future Trends report.In the first quarter of every year since 2020,we try to anticipate the megatrends that could significantly impact the world and ultimately drive business growth for
2、 current and future corporations.Our aim with this report is to look beyond the obvious and resist the urge to simply extrapolate current already clearly visible and understood trends,but to focus on the truly disruptive changes.Looking back at the history of engineering and business innovation,it i
3、s exceptional to see what can be achieved in a time horizon that spans multiple decades if there is sufficient urgency to find solutions.We therefore try to take the long view and focus on megatrends that will show their impact over the next 20 years rather than the next five.In a way,we are looking
4、 for those trends that are beginning today and that,when we look back in 20 years with the benefit of hindsight,will be the obvious choice for an early investment.Predicting the future is hard of course and we will certainly not get everything right.We do,however,want to offer the readers of this re
5、port a fresh perspective on potential future investment opportunities and to create the basis for the construction of many more innovative thematic index strategies to provide investment opportunities.We encourage you to get in touch with us to share and discuss your views,predictions,and ideas with
6、 us whether you agree or disagree with our take!Page 1 Future Trends 2023 DECARBONIZATION.2 FUTURE of ENERGY.7 FEEDING THE WORLD.13 HEALTHCARE 2.0.19 FUTURE MANUFACTURING.24 DIGITAL ME.28 SPACE ECONOMY.33 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.38 Page 2 Prosperity to Climate Emergency The industrial revolution bro
7、ught a significant degree of prosperity to the world.This fact is reflected by global GDP per capita(adjusted for cost of living across different countries and inflation)increasing from little over a thousand international dollars in 1820 to over 15,000 in 2018.1 Furthermore,the fruits of this econo
8、mic transformation were not just reaped by a limited group of people.According to Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas Jr.,this revolution generated a sustained growth in the living standards of the masses for the first time in history.2 However,industrialization also brought along one of todays greatest cha
9、llenges in the form of climate change.Even though the prospect of rising global temperatures due to increasing CO2 emissions was already reported over a century ago,few could have imagined the magnitude and scale of this problem in advance.3 Emissions of greenhouse gases(GHG)from human activities an
10、d their average lifetime in the atmosphere(which spans from a few weeks to thousands of years,depending on the type of GHG)have led to a degree of GHG atmospheric concentration responsible for approximately 1.1C of warming since the second half of the 19th century.4 5 6 This phenomenon is occurring
11、at an increasingly accelerated pace,which poses potentially catastrophic consequences for life on earth due to a myriad of interconnected factors stemming from a heating globe.Curbing rising emissions is one of societys existential goals.To limit the effects of global warming,a disproportional amoun
12、t of resources will need to be allocated to the development of economy-wide technological innovations.Lets dive into the challenges and opportunities around decarbonization.By Javier Almeida 260320380440-0.60.00.61.20020002020Global atmospheric CO2 concentration(rhs;ppm)and reb
13、ased land-ocean temperature index(lhs;C)Smoothed Land-Ocean Temperature IndexAtmospheric CO2 ConcentrationSource:NASA,NOAADECARBONIZATION Decarbonization Page 3 From Paris,with Love In light of this pressing issue,196 countries settled on the groundbreaking Paris Agreement at the 2015 United Nations
14、 Climate Change Conference(COP 21).The goal of this legally binding international treaty is to limit global warming to well below 2C,preferably 1.5C,compared to pre-industrial levels.Signatories have pledged to work on 5-year cycles of increasingly ambitious climate action in order to achieve this g
15、oal and communicate their intended climate reduction actions through their nationally determined contributions(NDCs).7 Given the causal relationship between higher GHG atmospheric concentration and a heating globe,the implicit goal of the Paris Agreement is to reach a global peaking of GHG emissions
16、 as soon as possible and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter,in order to achieve a balance between human made emissions and those absorbed by GHG sinks(such as forests)by 2050 or earlier thereby minimizing the potential harm climate change might generate.In other words,the treatys overarching g
17、oal is for the world to get to point in which there are net-zero emissions sooner rather than later.8 All Roads Must Lead to Net Zero The remaining space for action to achieve net-zero is significant and must be tackled urgently.According to the UN Environment Programmes 2022 Emissions Gap Report,un
18、changed current policies would lead to global warming of 2.8C over this century which would only be reduced by between 0.2 and 0.4C through the implementation of current nationally determined contributions.The same report specified that in order to limit global warming to 1.5C,global annual greenhou
19、se gas emissions must be reduced by 45%relative to projections under current policies in just eight years,and must continue to decline rapidly after 2030 to avoid exhausting our limited remaining atmospheric carbon budget.9 This sentiment is similar to that transmitted by the Center for Internationa
20、l Climate Research(CICERO).Based on their modeling and our current carbon budget,a path to limit global warming to 1.5C starting in 2023(assuming constant yearly emissions from 2019 until 2022 and no net-negative yearly emissions)would entail that emissions decline at an annual rate of just over 25%
21、until 2040 whereas that figure couldve been much lower,at around 4%,if our decarbonization path had begun at the start of the century.10 Although more attainable,the research from CICERO implies that limiting global warming to 2C would also be an extremely complex endeavor given our perilous startin
22、g point.In words of the 0%25%50%75%100%Current policiesNDCsNDCs withannounced NetZero targetsRange of global warming outcomes under different achieved scenarios over the course of the centurybelow 1.5C1.5-2C2-2.5C2.5-3C3-4Chigher than 4CSource:the United NationsDecarbonization Page 4 institute,“the
23、road to 2C is steep;the road to 1.5C is a cliff”.10 In a similar fashion,the International Energy Agencys 2022 World Energy Outlook highlighted that even though global clean energy investments would reach USD 2 trillion by 2030(a rise of more than 50%from todays investment levels),more than double t
24、hat amount will be needed by the same date in order for the world to get in track to net-zero emissions by 2050 despite the fact that natural gas demand will plateau by the end of the decade and that rising sales of electric vehicles will impair oil demand under a Stated Policies Scenario.11 Green T
25、ech,Sustainable Future?Given that a significant proportion of global emissions are linked to energy usage in industrial facilities,as well as in residential and commercial buildings,achieving net zero emissions before it is too late will require key developments in the power generation.Consequently,
26、a substantial amount of capital will be necessary to transform the global economy in a manner consistent with a Paris-aligned future.12 While a large portion of the required investments will be allocated to energy technologies already widely deployed,such as wind and solar farms,a significant share
27、of this capital must also be directed towards emerging or developing technologies.According to the International Energy Agencys net zero pathway by 2050 modeling,82%of the necessary technologies for achieving net zero by 2030 are currently available on the market.However,this figure represents only
28、50%of the technology required by 2050.13 Therefore,significant innovation efforts must occur in the upcoming decades to bring these emerging technologies to market in time.For more information on how the energy generation sector needs to be transformed,you can refer to our Future of Energy Future Tr
29、ends chapter.However,energy usage in industry and for building use represents only a portion of the bigger picture.Another major challenge in achieving net zero emissions is the decarbonization of the transport sector,which accounted for over 16%of global emissions in 2016.Despite electric vehicles
30、being among the flagship items in creating a greener world,only 10%of passenger vehicles sold in 2021 were electric.12 14 Modeled decarbonization path needed to limit global temperatures to 1.5 and 2C by start date(billion tons of CO2)00200020202040206020802100Decarbonization Decarbonizat
31、ion Starting Later1.5C00200020202040206020802100Decarbonization Starting LaterDecarbonization Starting Earlier2CSource:CICERO Decarbonization Page 5 Nonetheless,regulations enacted globally and significant investments in the EV industry have spurred innovation,leading to a projected incre
32、ase in the rate of electric vehicle adoption across the transportation sector in the coming years.Additionally,tightening emissions-linked regulations may continue to incentivize drivers to shift towards electric vehicles,while encouraging producers to increase their research and development efforts
33、 to meet consumer demand and regulatory requirements.For instance,BloombergNEF predicts that by 2040,more than 70%of new cars sold will be electric.This development is expected to be driven by rapid adoption rates in China,Europe,and the US.They also estimate that cumulative investments in global EV
34、 charging infrastructure could exceed USD 1 trillion by then to meet the demands of an increasingly electrified transportation system.Additionally,sustainable fuels such as green hydrogen could play a significant role in reducing the carbon footprint of heavy-duty vehicles and be used as a replaceme
35、nt for natural gas in heavy-emitting industries.14 15 Carbon Sequestration While reducing emissions globally is crucial to achieving net zero,capturing released carbon can also play a significant role in mitigating the devastating effects of global warming.Even though it may seem intuitive to many t
36、hat halting global deforestation is a silver bullet to achieve net zero,this view would only be partially true.Namely,tropical tree cover loss,which accounts for 96%of the worlds total permanent tree cover loss,contributed an average of 5.5 Gt of emissions between 2001 and 2021.Assuming that tropica
37、l trees were suddenly stopped to be cut down and were instead used to capture carbon,a hypothetical additional 11 Gt of carbon per year could be captured on a yearly basis,which is less than a third of the worlds estimated emissions in 2021.16 Therefore,carbon capture technologies should also be emb
38、raced in the fight against global warming,and major players are taking notice.For instance,Chevron,supported by Shell,Dow Chemical,and Ineos,among others,has proposed a USD 100 billion plan to capture CO2 emitted from their Houston plants and store it in the Gulf of Mexico seabed.Currently,over 300
39、new carbon capture projects are in various stages of development,with 200 expected to go online and capture a total of 220 Mt of CO2 by 2030.17 18 Industry useBuilding useTransportWaste3.2Chemical and cement production5.2Agriculture18.4Energy73.2Global emissions by sectorWasteChemical and cement pro
40、ductionAgricultureEnergySource:Our World in Data,Climate Watch,the World Resources InstituteDecarbonization Page 6 Conclusion The achievement of net zero by 2050 is an enormous task that requires joint global efforts in a multitude of economic and consumer-related areas.The combined impact of a gree
41、n shift in energy,transport,and industry,coupled with increased emissions sequestration,may bring us closer to this goal.However,solving one of humanitys greatest challenges,climate change,requires many pieces to fall into place.Nevertheless,with increasing attention and resources devoted to this en
42、deavor,there is still a way forward for humanity to achieve significant breakthroughs over the upcoming years and decades so that we can remain on a Paris-aligned path.References 1 Maddison Project Database 2020(rug.nl)2 Robert Lucas Jr.,Lectures on Economic Growth,2004.3 Popular Mechanics,Page 341
43、March,1912,1912.4 Climate change widespread,rapid,and intensifying(ipcc.ch)5 Global Temperature(climate.nasa.gov)6 Climate Change Indicators:Greenhouse Gases(epa.gov)7 The Paris Agreement(unfccc.int)8 Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)(unfccc.int)9 Emissions Gap Report 2022(unep.org)10 Its ge
44、tting harder and harder to limit ourselves to 2C(folk.universitetetioslo.no)11 World Energy Outlook 2022(iea.org)12 Emissions by Sector(ourworldindata.org)13 Net Zero by 2050(iea.org)14 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022()15 The US plan to Become the Worlds Cleantech Superpower()16 Greenhouse Gas Fluxes
45、from Forests(research.wri.org)17 Put up or shut up:can Big Oil prove the case for carbon capture?()18 Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(iea.org)Decarbonization Page 7 The Road to Net Zero Emissions Long story short,we need to reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050 in order to limit the global tempera
46、ture rise to only 1.5 C and hopefully avoid catastrophic environmental consequences that may end human civilization as we know it(“no”pressure).In this context,decarbonizing energy would be a top priority,as the global energy sector accounts for about 73%of global CO2 emissions each year including t
47、he transport sector,or about 57%of global CO2 annual emissions excluding transport.1 Fortunately,the green energy transformation is currently gaining a lot of momentum:cost-efficient ecosystems are developing,and new technologies are emerging.Most importantly,consumer attitude has already embraced t
48、he necessity for a low-carbon future,guiding companies to offer an increasing variety of environmentally-friendly products or services ranging from green electricity to electric vehicles.Where the public leads,policymakers eventually follow.Consequently,decarbonization is now receiving crucial polit
49、ical support that would have seemed unimaginable a decade ago.Status Quo,Policies,and Outlook Right now,about 80%of the global energy mix is generated with fossil fuels like oil,gas,and coal,the remainder 20%being generated by nuclear and renewables such as solar,wind,or hydro.2 However,the year 202
50、2 marks a timeframe when major policies supporting clean energy were announced all over the world.China published its 14th Five-Year Plan in June,setting a bold target of 33%of electricity from renewables by 2025.The U.S.introduced the Inflation Reduction Act in August,intensifying support for renew
51、ables over the next ten years through tax incentives and other measures.In May,the E.U.increased its renewable energy target to 45%of the total energy mix by 2030 as part of its REPowerEU Plan implying an additional 1,236 GW of renewable capacity to be constructed.India also announced new targets fo
52、r 2030,which include 500GW of non-fossil fuel energy alongside a 50%renewable share of its total power mix.Meanwhile,Japans Green Transformation program provides funding for clean hydrogen,ammonia,and nuclear,whereas Korea also pledged to increase the share of nuclear and renewables in its energy mi
53、x.FUTURE of ENERGY Humanitys consumption of energy is currently the main contributor to global emissions.In this light,the green transformation of energy production represents the main step towards Net Zero by 2050.Lets take a closer look at what the future(of green energy)holds.By Emanuel Cozmanciu
54、c Future of Energy Page 8 Solar The production of electricity currently accounts for about 31%of the worlds annual greenhouse gases emissions,representing the single largest contributor to global CO2 emissions.2 In this light,decarbonizing electricity production by transitioning to solar or wind has
55、 long been on the radar of consumers and utility companies alike.Consequently,solar and wind are relatively mature sectors already,as they began to see widescale adoption more than ten years ago,reaching economies of scale that caused costs to plummet spectacularly,to the point that solar and wind c
56、urrently represent the cheapest form of electricity in most areas of the globe.2 3 In the year 2000,global solar capacity was a mere 0,125 GW.By 2018,solar energy capacity rose spectacularly all the way to 485 GW.4 By 2027,global solar generation is expected to more than triple,growing by 1,500 GW a
57、nd becoming the worlds largest source of electricity,surpassing even coal and natural gas on a global level.3 Breaking down manufacturing capacity,China is projected to be a world leader and supply about 50%of the global demand by 2030,with the U.S.following closely behind due to its Inflation Reduc
58、tion Act,and the E.U.just behind the U.S.3 On the other hand,concentrated solar(which functions like a giant magnifying glass that focuses sunlight on a narrow point to generate high heat)is expected to take a back seat and lose market share in the face of solar PV,as higher costs are implied by the
59、 complex maintenance required by heating salt to thousands of degrees.Wind In terms of energy generation capacity,wind power is expected to come in second after solar PV by the end of the decade,despite currently generating more power than solar PV.2 Namely,wind energy capacity rose from 0.017 GW in
60、 the year 2000 all the way to 564 GW in 2018,giving wind power a head-start compared to solar.3 On the other hand,wind power capacity is only expected to double within the next five years.2 Only 20%of this new capacity will be attributed to offshore wind farms,whereas onshore wind farms are projecte
61、d to create almost 600 GW of clean energy by 2027.3 Europe is likely to fall behind the US and China in terms of production and installation of wind turbines,as Chinas provincial policies support faster expansion and the U.S.becomes a bigger market for wind energy according to IEA projections.2 Othe
62、r than noise and risks for birds,the disadvantages of wind turbines(vs.solar panels)are mainly related to higher operating costs,as wind turbines have moving parts that not only require regular maintenance but also wear out and need replacing over time.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%200
63、02220242026Solar PVWindHydropowerBioenergyCoalNatural GasSource:IEA,Renewables 2022 Report Future of Energy Page 9 Energy Storage While solar and wind offer highly enticing incentives such low costs,economies of scale,and safety(there is no risk that a wind farm will blow up),there is one big elepha
64、nt in the room:wind and solar are variable in output,i.e.,its not always sunny or windy.Consequently,investments into large-scale energy storage solutions are an absolute must if solar and wind are to become our main source of power:renewables need to generate excess power during favorable condition
65、s and store it for later use.Currently,lithium-ion batteries represent the go-to solution for storing excess renewable energy.However,despite plummeting costs,lithium-ion batteries are still too expensive for gird-scale applications;a further cost reduction of 10 x to 20 x would be required.Furtherm
66、ore,there is a projected shortage of lithium and other minerals required for battery production over the next 15 years.5 Finally,most of these materials currently come from China a situation posing some geopolitical risk that may negate the energy security provided by generating renewable energy at
67、home.Consequently,several alternative energy storage technologies are now in various stages of development,such as different types of batteries that are not lithium-ion(i.e.,solid-state,aluminum,or sodium batteries,among others).On the other side of the spectrum are water batteries(a.k.a.pump-storag
68、e more on this later),gravity-batteries,or fly-wheels.While definitely viable and promising,most of these alternative energy storage methods are yet to be been proven at scale.As a result,they are currently too expensive for widescale adoption.Hydrogen&Derived Fuels Hydrogen,on the other side,offers
69、 exceptional energy storage properties.Unlike lithium-ion batteries,which degrade over time even when not in use,hydrogen can be stored in tanks indefinitely.Furthermore,it can be transported through pipelines just like natural gas,or shipped across the world in pressurized tanks much like liquefied
70、 natural gas in fact,existing natural gas infrastructure can be converted to handle hydrogen instead.Best of all,hydrogen is highly versatile:it can be used in fuel cells to generate electricity(taking the role of a battery)or it can be combusted just like gasoline or diesel emitting nothing more th
71、an water vapor either way.The largest critique to hydrogen is that its production is highly energy intensive,giving rise to arguments that the excess electricity required for hydrogen production would be better allocated to more energy efficient processes like charging batteries.Yet,solar and wind p
72、roduction capabilities are expected to exceed requirements by around 75%opening the door to green hydrogen production via electrolysis.2 5.05.0-liter 444bhp V8liter 444bhp V8 Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine by Toyota&Yamaha.emits only water vaporemits only water vapor Future of Energy Page 10 Fu
73、rthermore,not even the biggest critics of hydrogen can get around the fact that not everything can be electrified.Shipping or aviation,for example,are notoriously difficult to electrify,as batteries are simply too heavy for such applications:packing enough of them to cross an ocean would imply so mu
74、ch weight that no ship could float and no plane could fly.The steel industry(which is responsible for 7%of global CO2 emissions 1)would be another perfect example:the first step in steel production is the removal of oxygen from iron ore currently achieved by using fossil fuels to react with the oxyg
75、en and form CO2.Hydrogen can be used to react with the oxygen instead,forming no other byproduct than H20.Other applications range from home use(replacing natural gas for heating or cooking)to space travel(hydrogen can be used as a carbon-free rocket fuel that can also be created directly in space u
76、sing ice and solar energy).In this light,hydrogen can be produced anywhere with no other inputs than(green)electricity and water,offering an option for countries to achieve energy sovereignty and reduce geopolitical risk.Consequently,due to energy security concerns,high fuel prices,and climate conce
77、rns,hydrogen is currently experiencing unprecedented political and private support.Several policies and targets introduced in 25 countries are expected to expand the global renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen production by 50 GW over the next five years which is 100 times the current capacity.6
78、 By 2030,clean hydrogen production is projected to reach 30 million tons per year.2 Regarding electrolyzes for hydrogen production,the IEA projects excess capacity of all announced projects in 2030 to be about 50%.2 Finally,hydrogen would be a required input in the production of alternative fuels su
79、ch as ammonia or synthetic fuels(e-fuels).Should these fuels become widely adopted,hydrogen production would be ramped up either way.For instance,ammonia(NH3)is produced by combining hydrogen with nitrogen extracted directly from the atmosphere,and offers more enticing properties as an energy carrie
80、r or a storage medium,as it requires less compression or cooling to be stored making it a highly attractive option for decarbonizing the shipping industry.Synthetic fuels(e-fuels)are produced by combining hydrogen with carbon extracted from the atmosphere with CCUS technology,and offer the convenien
81、t possibility to be directly used in our existing internal combustion engines.Nuclear Nuclear power has been the largest source of carbon-free electricity in developed economies,accounting for almost 20%of their power mix.7 Globally,nuclear accounts for about 10%of the total electricity supply(413 G
82、W)and is the second largest source of carbon-free electricity(after hydroelectricity),avoiding about 1.5 gigatons of CO2 emissions each year 8 which is more than Japans entire annual emissions.9 However,nuclear power is on the decline,as more and more existing plants are being deactivated and disman
83、tled due to negative public opinion and large up-front costs that make faster-to-install alternatives like gas or renewables more attractive.Despite solar and winds meteoric rise in the last few years,the global share of clean electricity today(36%)is still the same as it was 20 years ago due to an
84、increasing number of nuclear plants shutting down.8 Future of Energy Page 11 So,does nuclear still have a future in our modern world?Well,the IEA recommends that it should,arguing that the already ambitious transition to clean energy would be much more difficult without nuclear power 8,for two reaso
85、ns.First,nuclear power provides baseline load capacity,which would be a valued complement to the output variability of solar and wind power,reducing the need for expensive energy storage solutions.Second,it would actually be about USD 1.6 trillion cheaper to extend the life of existing nuclear plant
86、s instead of offsetting nuclear capacity with new solar and wind infrastructure,as fuel and operating costs for nuclear are relatively low once the initial building cost has been incurred.8 In this light,China will build 150 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years which is more than the 126 nucl
87、ear reactors built worldwide since 1987.Finally,several studies reveal that nuclear power is actually the second safest form of power per unit of electricity generated second safest after solar PVs and safer than wind power,surprisingly even when accounting for all nuclear disasters in history.1011
88、NASA itself goes as far as estimating that nuclear power has actually saved 1.84 million lives so far by displacing other,more harmful forms of electricity like coal.11 However,nuclear power will still have to overcome one of its biggest hurdles even if public opinion becomes favorable:the high upfr
89、ont costs and long lead-times to build new capacity.In this light,the ongoing development of next generation installations is focused on small,standardized,container sized,modular reactors.Still,we understand that nuclear is a controversial topic luckily,hydroelectricity offers a good alternative.Hy
90、dro&Ocean Hydroelectricity is currently the worlds largest source of renewable electricity,providing about one sixth of the worlds energy needs,and generating more power than all other sources of renewable energy combined,including solar PV,wind,bioenergy,and geothermal.12 Furthermore,hydroelectric
91、plants offer much needed flexibility and security of our power grids as a valuable complement to the variability of solar and wind the combined capacity of all our existing reservoirs account for almost half of the E.U.s annual energy demand,and about 2,200 x the energy storage capacity of all batte
92、ries on the planet.Hence,in our pursuit of Net Zero targets,hydroelectricity capacity is projected to grow by about 17%(230 GW)until 2030,attracting about half a trillion dollars in investments by the end of the decade.12 More specifically,pump-storage or water-batteries(the pumping of water into an
93、 elevated reservoir using excess renewable power,to be subsequently released in turbines and generate electricity when needed)capacity is expected to grow by about 7%per year until 2030,and is projected to far outweigh the energy storage capacity of all batteries,even accounting for those in EVs.12
94、On the other hand,pump-storage solutions are much larger in scale and much more capital intensive,therefore being seen as more risky investments than battery storage projects.Finally,in the case of traditional hydroelectric dams,there are big environmental concerns,as blocking a river can have signi
95、ficant negative effects on local wildlife.Moreover,local villages and towns also frown upon such projects.Future of Energy Page 12 In this light,there has been a recent push to harness the energy of the oceans,in the form of tidal energy and wave energy;various projects are in different stages of de
96、velopment,with several governments offering incentives and grants.However,ocean energy is yet to be proven at scale,and is therefore not expected to play a major role within the upcoming decade.Bioenergy Biofuels are technically carbon neutral,as the CO2 they release upon combustion is the same CO2
97、that plants(used in the production of biofuels)captured from the atmosphere during their growth stage.Furthermore,biofuels can directly be used in our existing combustion engines and could offer a carbon-neutral alternative to sectors that are hard to electrify,such as shipping or aviation,until oth
98、er technologies like hydrogen take over.Hence,biofuel production is expected to grow by around 16%per year until 2030.13 Currently,the vast majority of biofuel production uses sugar cane,corn,or soybeans called conventional feedstocks.The biggest arguments against biofuels are the required land usag
99、e,the associated environmental impact,and the potential negative effects on food security.In this light,there is an ongoing push for advanced feedstocks:waste biomass,residues,and dedicated non-food crops that can be grown on otherwise unusable land.Thus,there are several international initiatives t
100、o fund environmentally-friendly biofuel production:The BioFuture Platform Initiative,IEAs Bioenergy Technological Program,the Global Bioenergy Partnership,and the Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition.References 1 Climate Watch,The World Resources Institute,2020.2 IEA(International Energy Agency),World
101、 Energy Outlook 2022.3 IEA(International Energy Agency),Renewables 2022.4 IEA(International Energy Agency),World Energy Outlook 2021.5 LU Leven University,Metals for Clean Energy:Pathways to Solving Europes Raw Materials Challenge,2022.6 IEA(International Energy Agency),Global Hydrogen Review,2022.7
102、 IEA(International Energy Agency),Nuclear,2022.8 IEA(International Energy Agency),Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System,2019.9 WorldOMeter,CO2 Emissions by Country”.10 Our World In Data,“Nuclear”,2018.11 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute,“Prevented Mor
103、tality and GHG Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power”,2013.12 IEA(International Energy Agency),“Hydropower Special Market Report”,2021.13 IEA(International Energy Agency),“Biofuels”,2022.Future of Energy Page 13 The Challenges Humanity Faces Food and water are fundamental human needs
104、,yet millions of people around the world still lack access to sufficient,safe,and nutritious food or water.Hunger,thirst,and malnutrition continue to be major challenges,particularly in developing countries where poverty,conflicts,and climate change can all contribute to food and water insecurity.In
105、 addition to the lack of food,there is also the issue of unequal distribution,where some regions of the world produce more than enough food while others struggle to meet their basic needs.This inequality is exacerbated by economic and political factors that limit access to food and water for vulnera
106、ble populations.However,there is hope.Advances in technology have the potential to transform the way we produce,distribute,and access food and water,and can help to address the challenge of feeding a growing population.Technologies such as precision agriculture,wastewater treatment,desalination,vert
107、ical farming,biotechnology,digital platforms,robotics,and automation can all contribute to a more sustainable and efficient food system,reducing waste,increasing yields,and improving the availability of food and water to those who need it most.In this way,technology can be a powerful tool for addres
108、sing the persistent problems of food insecurity and inequality.Moreover,the United Nations have considered these two problems when they laid out the 17 Sustainable Development Goals(SDG)in 2015.SDG 2 defines the goal of ending hunger,achieving food security and improved nutrition,and promoting susta
109、inable agriculture.Additionally,SDG 6 aims to ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.The following graph displays the share of the population per country that lack access to safe water and are undernourished.The horizontal axis shows the share of population wi
110、thout safe water access and the vertical axis the share of undernourished population.The size of the individual bubbles shows the gross domestic product and the red color identifies the 50%of countries that have a higher forecasted population growth from 2019 to 2050.The global community has committ
111、ed to ensure that everyone has access to enough food and water,which is essential for a healthy and sustainable world.As long as people lack access it will lead to malnutrition,illness,and many deaths.In addition to the humanitarian implications,there are also economic and social FEEDING THE WORLD T
112、he United Nations predicts that by 2050 there will be nearly 10 billion people on the planet,which will require an immense increase in food production and a more sustainable management of limited resources like water.Meeting this challenge will require innovative approaches and technologies.By Tobia
113、s Hardt Feeding the World Page 14 impacts of food and water insecurity,including decreased productivity,increased healthcare costs,and the potential for conflicts over resources.Addressing these challenges and striving for universal access to food and water can help to promote health,stability,and p
114、rosperity for all people,while also protecting the natural environment and ensuring the long-term sustainability of our planet.There are several factors that will even increase the difficulties we face today.First,the global population continues to grow and so does the demand for food.This puts addi
115、tional pressure on the food production and distribution systems,as more and more people need to be fed with limited resources.Furthermore,climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the global food production.Rising temperatures,more frequently occurring droughts,floods,and overall mo
116、re extreme weather events pose immense risks to the agricultural productivity,potentially reducing yields and imposing food restrictions in the already more vulnerable regions.Additionally,many required resources for a stable supply of food are scarce and distributed unequally.The limited availabili
117、ty of resources such as arable land,water,and energy limits the production of food.Moreover,many regions of the world face challenges in terms of soil quality and access to inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides.Further,many food systems are not designed efficiently.These inefficient food systems
118、 lead to waste and distribution problems,with food often being lost during production,transportation,and storage.Lastly,political instability and conflicts disrupt food production and distribution systems,leading to supply shortages.0%10%20%30%40%50%0%20%40%60%80%100%Share of Undernourished Populati
119、on Share of Population without Safe Water AccessFast growing countriesSlow growing countriesCentral AfricanRepublicChadDem.Rep.of CongoWorldSource:World Health Organization,UNICEF,the World Bank and FAO Share of population that is undernourished(y-axis),lacks safe water access(x-axis),and GDP per ca
120、pita(bubble size)per countryFeeding the World Page 15 How To Tackle Food Scarcity Facing these complex challenges requires a multi-faceted approach.Among these approaches are the promotion of sustainable agriculture,a reduction of wasted food,an increase in market access,and investments in research
121、and development.Sustainable agriculture is characterized by environmentally and economically sustainable farming practices.This includes crop rotations,integrated pest management,and conservation tillage.The latter system results in significantly less soil erosion due to wind and water by maintainin
122、g plant residues on at least 30%of the soil surface.According to the United Nations around 14%of the worlds food is wasted even before reaching the retail level.1 Another 17%are lost at later stages.While 11%are wasted by households,5%are lost in the food service industry,and 2%in retail.2 The waste
123、 amounts to nearly a third of the globally produced food for human consumption.As of 2020,roughly 2.4 billion people,or more than 30%of the worlds population were moderately or severely food-insecure.Considering that all these people are lacking sufficient access to food,demonstrates the importance
124、of managing the produced food more economically.Moreover,an increase in market access could improve the overall situation.Many small farmers in developing markets struggle to get their products to market.Improving transportation infrastructure,providing training in business skills,and supporting coo
125、peratives and farmer associations could improve livelihoods.Finally,technological advances will play a major role in securing the capability of feeding the world population.Therefore,it is inevitable to invest in research and development of agricultural technologies.Some of the most promising techno
126、logies for tackling the nutritional challenges humanity faces are precision agriculture,vertical farming,advances in biotechnology,and digital platforms.Precision agriculture is a technology that uses sensors,GPS mapping,and other tools to precisely target crop inputs such as water and fertilizer,re
127、ducing waste and improving yields.While these technologies are already used by large commercial farmers,there is the potential to scale and making them accessible to smaller farmers,but also in developing countries,where access to inputs and resources is more limited.The precision farming market is
128、expected to increase from USD 8.5 bn in 2022 to USD 15.6 bn by 2030,at a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 7.9%.3 Vertical farming involves growing crops in vertically stacked layers,using artificial light,and controlled environmental conditions like Source:United Nations,UNEP,and FAO 69%31%Consum
129、ed and Wasted FoodConsumedWasted before RetailWasted by HouseholdWasted by Food ServiceIndustryWasted by RetailFeeding the World Page 16 temperature and humidity.This technology has the potential to produce high yields of fresh,nutritious food in urban areas,reducing transportation costs and increas
130、ing access to fresh produce.With the worlds population increasingly living in cities,vertical farming can help to address the problem of food deserts,where there is limited access to fresh produce.The vertical farming market is projected to grow from USD 6.9 bn in 2023 to USD 24.9 bn in 2030 with a
131、CAGR of 20.1%.4 Advances in biotechnology can help to improve the nutritional quality and yield of crops,making them more resilient to pests,diseases,and other environmental stresses.Genetic modification can help to create crops that are drought-resistant,flood-resistant,and can grow in poor soil co
132、nditions.Technologically enhanced nutritional profiles,like increased levels of protein or vitamins,reduce the amount of required food.One example is the so-called golden rice which has been genetically modified to contain higher levels of-carotin,and therefore helps to battle the shortage of dietar
133、y vitamin A,which is a major issue in emerging countries.The project has received the 2015 Patents for Humanity Award,granted by the US Patent and Trademark Office.Today it is backed by the Bill-and-Melinda-Gates-Foundation.5 Digital platforms can help improving the efficiency of food systems,reduci
134、ng waste,and increasing the overall access to food.Platforms such as farm-to-plate can help to connect farmers with consumers,reducing the necessity for middlemen in the food supply chain and increasing the farmers profit margins.Moreover,access to information on pricing,weather patterns,and other f
135、actors potentially influencing the yield,promotes food security.Other platforms can help to reduce food waste by connecting surplus food with organizations that distribute it to people in need and therefore create more equitable food systems that are more efficient than ever.Water Prerequisite for L
136、ife The challenges of providing water and food to the global population are interconnected,but there are some key differences.The major challenge of providing sufficient food is agricultural productivity.With a growing population,as displayed in the following graph,6 and increasing demand for food,t
137、here is a need to produce more food on less land and with fewer resources.This requires the already discussed agricultural technologies and practices that can increase yields,improve soil quality,and reduce waste.In contrast,the challenge of providing clean and fresh water is more directly related t
138、o water scarcity and contamination.Many regions of the world,particularly in developing countries,lack sufficient infrastructure to provide access to clean water,which can lead to the spread of water-borne diseases and other health problems.Additionally,climate change has an exacerbating effect on w
139、ater scarcity,with droughts and water shortages becoming more common.Despite the differences,addressing the challenges of food and water insecurity requires a holistic and integrated approach that recognizes the interconnections.This includes implementing sustainable agriculture practices that also
140、conserve water resources,improving water management,and distribution systems.Feeding the World Page 17 Nevertheless,there are several important technologies that will help to address the problem of water scarcity and pollution like water filtration and purification,desalination,water conservation,an
141、d water harvesting technologies.Moreover,wastewater treatment is an essential component of water resource management.Each of these technologies has a significant role to play in addressing the problem of water scarcity and pollution.The most important technology for a particular region depends on lo
142、cal factors,such as the availability of water resources,the level of pollution,and the state of the water infrastructure.Water filtration and purification technologies are essential in ensuring access to safe and clean drinking water.The global home water filtration unit market was valued at USD 10.
143、9 bn in 2021.Until 2030 it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.5%.7 About 71%of the earths surface is covered by water.Almost all of it 96.5%is salt water.8 Desalination technologies are used to make these resources drinkable.The global market for water desalination equipment was valued at USD 15.5
144、bn in 2022 but is expected to expand by a CAGR of 9.4%until 2030.9 Because polluted wastewater can have severely adverse effects on nature,wastewater treatment plays a significant role in preserving nature and creating a sustainable water economy.The global wastewater treatment services market was e
145、stimated to be worth USD 53 bn in 2021.Its CAGR is projected to be around 6.2%until 2026,resulting in a market size of over USD 71.6 bn.10 Final Thoughts Lastly,there are emerging technologies that connect the two discussed issues at hand,trying to solve them simultaneously.One prominent example is
146、aquaponic system.The term is derived from aquaculture,growing fish in a closed environment,and hydroponics,the concept of growing plants in a soil-less environment.11 This closed-loop system,has been gaining popularity in recent years as a sustainable and efficient way to produce both fish and veget
147、ables,especially in urban areas where land and water resources are limited.However,it is still a relatively niche technology and is not yet widely spread on a global scale.As more research and development is conducted,and economies of scale realized,it has the potential to play a significant role in
148、 meeting the challenge of providing enough food and water to the global population.12 Overall,these technologies are not a silver bullet,and their success will depend on a range of factors,including their affordability,scalability,and social acceptance.However,they all hold the potential to changing
149、 the way we feed the world lastingly.Source:United Nations 678902085Global Population 2022-2085 in BillionsFeeding the World Page 18 References 1 The State of Food and Agriculture 2019 Moving Forward on Food Loss and Waste Reduction(fao.org)2 UNEP Food Waste Index Report 2021(unep.org)3 P
150、recision Farming Market by Technology,Offering,Application,and Region(2022-2030)()4 Vertical Farming Market Analysis by Structure,By Component,By Growing Mechanism,By Crop Category,and Segment Forecasts,2023 2030()5 Nutritious Rice and Cassava Aim to Help Millions Fight Malnutrition(gatesfoundation.
151、org)6 Global Issues Our growing population(un.org)7 Home Water Filtration Unit Market Size,Share&Trends Analysis Report By Product,By Region,And Segment Forecasts,2022-2030()8 How much Water is on Earth?(Spaceplace.nasa.gov)9 Water Desalination Equipment Market Size,Share&Trends Analysis Report By T
152、echnology,By Source,By Application,By Region,And Segment Forecasts,2023 2030()10 Wastewater Treatment Services Market by Service Type,End-User,Industrial End-User and Region Global Forecast to 2026()11 What Is The Aquaponics System Definition,Benefits,Weaknesses(youmatter.world)12 Small-scale aquapo
153、nic food production Integrated fish and plant farming(fao.org)Feeding the World Page 19 Biotech&Multi-Omics Biotechnology exploits biological processes and utilizes these to develop new technologies.In medicine these technologies are,for instance,used to design novel drugs or treatments.One of the m
154、ost promising fields in biotechnology goes under the name“omics”.Omics is the science of understanding the interactions between biological molecules and an organism such as the human system,viruses,or bacteria.Among others,it includes the study of an organisms entire genome(genomics),the study of RN
155、A(transcriptomics),the study of proteins(proteomics),and the study of metabolites(metabolomics).The most prominent example of a widespread usage of the omics is the global COVID-19 pandemic.From the initial identification of the virus itself by the usage of RNA sequencing,over the verification of an
156、 infection by PCR methods,to the development of mRNA-based vaccines,omics had a significant impact on tackling the global pandemic.A study by Commonwealth Fund estimates that in the U.S.alone more than 3 million deaths were prevented by COVID-19 vaccines.1 The vast majority of these doses were based
157、 on mRNA.Compared to typical vaccine development times of 10 to 15 years,the mRNA-based vaccine took only a year to be developed and produced.The technology,however,is not limited to being used against viruses like COVID,the flu,or even HIV.Cancer immunotherapy based on an mRNA vaccine is currently
158、in clinical trials.For that purpose,tissues samples are extracted that are then used to develop an individualized cancer vaccine within a couple of weeks.These personalized vaccines could teach the patients immune system how it can distinguish cancer cells from others and trigger an immune response.
159、Another example is the fight against cardiovascular diseases exploiting multi-omics.Using CRISPR/Cas9,researchers were able to successfully edit a certain gene PCSK9,a cholesterol regulator.By mutating those genes,cholesterol levels can be significantly lowered,and the risk of a heart attack can be
160、reduced by as much as 90%.3 While tests are still done on animals,the final product would be a one-time HEALTHCARE 2.0 Healthcare is changing at a rapid pace.Through recent advancements,we start to understand the complex interactions inside our body,the development and targeted treatment of diseases
161、,and the prevention of those altogether.Lets dive into the future of healthcare.By Daniel Wendelberger More than 95%of vaccine doses administered in the U.S.are mRNA-based2 18 million hospitalizations and 3 million deaths prevented by COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S.1 More than 95%of vaccine doses admi
162、nistered in the U.S.are mRNA-based2 18 million hospitalizations and 3 million deaths prevented by COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S.1 Healthcare 2.0 Page 20 vaccine that would boost life expectancies substantially.Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of deaths globally,representing 32%of global
163、deaths.85%of these deaths are due to heart attacks and strokes.4 The foundation of these developments is built upon a process that lets researchers understand the structure of,for instance,our DNA.This process is called sequencing as it enables us to understand the order(or sequence)of the individua
164、l building blocks that make up a DNA molecule,for example.The costs of sequencing went down significantly over the last 20 years.According to the National Human Genome Research Institute,the cost of sequencing a single human genome went down from USD 100 million in 2001 to less than USD 1,000 in 202
165、1.5 With decreasing costs,researchers are able to gather more data and have quicker development cycles for new treatments.As mentioned above,the rapid development of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines is a result of this increased efficiency saving millions of lives.Instead of using one-size-fits-all trea
166、tments,many“omics-treatments”will be personalized for each patient taking her individual genetic profile into consideration.Personalized treatments lower the risk of side effects,are more cost-efficient,and increase the likelihood of a successful therapy.For example,by sequencing a newborns genome,c
167、ritical conditions that would otherwise not be found could be detected early on and therapies could be started before the effects of the condition occur potentially even decades ahead.The Newborn Genomes Programme in England aims at sequencing the genomes of over 100,000 newborns.6 This effort will
168、help researchers to identify rare diseases in babies and develop new approaches to prevent serious medical problems.A lot of costs,pain,and suffering can be avoided and thereby make the life of even our smallest ones better.Source:National Human Genome Research Institute$100$1,000$10,000$100,000$1,0
169、00,000$10,000,000$100,000,000200019Cost per GenomeCost per GenomeMoores LawHealthcare 2.0 Page 21 Big data techniques,enormous computing power,and the application of machine learning algorithms build the foundation of these developments.However,we really are only at the start o
170、f making sense of the human body.Multi-omics,i.e.,the combination of different fields of omics,will enable us to get a multi-dimensional view of the human body.Imagine going from an SD screen to a 4k screen.Being able to zoom in and out and additionally switch between different levels of the human o
171、rganism enables researchers to get a much clearer picture and develop a better understanding of the complex interactions in any living being.Big data techniques and machine learning will play crucial roles in making sense of all these data and assist in identifying relationships between the genome,R
172、NA,and proteins,for instance.Eventually,multi-omics will change the way we treat,cure,and most importantly prevent diseases.By having a holistic view on a person,we will be able to understand each ones risk of getting certain diseases and hopefully be able to prevent those.Digitalization of Healthca
173、re E-health aims to digitalize the entire healthcare system from the detection of a disease to the doctor visit and remote surgeries.While some of these ideas are still in their infancy,others are already used by millions.Wearables monitor health parameters continuously and help us manage our health
174、.They can,for instance,be used by practitioners to monitor patients remotely,allowing for early detection of potential health issues and thus leading to interventions before more serious complications arise.This is also relevant for the growing number of older people in society.There are,for example
175、,watch-like pieces of wearable technology that track the activity of the wearer by incorporating gesture patterns,among other data such as location.For example,if a repetitive“eating”motion is not detected when expected,a caretaker is notified.Wearables generally gather large amounts of data.Thanks
176、to todays computing power,big data approaches,and the application of machine learning that data can be processed and analyzed.This will help researchers,similarly to the application in multi-omics,identify previously unknown patterns and generate new insights into the prevention and treatment of dis
177、eases.For instance,by measuring changes in the respiratory rate through a wristband,researchers found that it is possible to predict a potential COVID-19 infection in some cases even two days before any symptoms occurred.7 There are also devices that can detect serious conditions like atrial fibrill
178、ation by continuously monitoring a persons heart rate and giving the wearer a warning when she should get herself checked.Different Layers of Multi-Omics Healthcare 2.0 Page 22 From to 2016 to 2022 the number of connected wearables more than tripled to 1.1 billion active devices in 2022.8 Compared t
179、o almost seven billion active smartphones,there is still substantial room for adaption and growth in the wearables market.Ultimately,wearables will lead to predicting medical problems before any symptoms develop and hence generate valuable time to prevent any serious issues and thereby save costs fo
180、r both patients as well as the healthcare system.Seeing a doctor early enough can make a significant difference.Going to see a doctor,however,is often a burdensome process,especially in remote areas.First,you actually need to find a doctor who still has the capacity to see you.Second,you typically m
181、ust wait for several days if not weeks until your appointment.And third,you physically need to go there,which often takes a lot of time.No matter how mild symptoms might be or how sure you already are of what you need you will spend significant time and energy on seeing a doctor.Telemedicine promise
182、s to disrupt this entire process.To get a doctors appointment you quickly fill out a questionnaire describing your symptoms,book a slot that suits you,and talk to a doctor in the next couple of minutes or hours.It is not only more convenient,but you also dont run the risk of catching another virus o
183、r infecting others while sitting in the waiting room.Telemedicine promises easier access to healthcare,enhanced efficiency,and lower costs all leading to better outcomes for patients,practitioners,and society as a whole.The usage of telemedicine services skyrocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic.Acco
184、rding to a study by McKinsey,the usage of telehealth services increased significantly at the beginning of the pandemic and then settled at a level 38x higher than before COVID-19.9 Even though this growth path flattened since then,telemedicine is still very much a future trend,and the pandemic was l
185、ike a huge proof-of-concept.Enabling access to healthcare for people in remote areas or people who cannot simply visit a doctor anymore is a market that has substantial growth opportunities.Additionally,through shifting demographics,we will sooner or later run into issues taking care of our elderly.
186、Remote solutions will play crucial roles in the future.Lastly,reducing frictions when it comes to the exchange of your health data between doctors and/or devices is essential and a logical advancement.All around the world there are efforts to introduce electronic health records enabling the patient
187、to manage their data on their own and share them with practitioners,researchers,or apps whenever they want.Going from one doctor to another often leads to a“loss”of data and the patient not being able to share information on previous treatments and protocols.Electronic health records provide patient
188、s and practitioners a complete view and allow them to make better decisions and lead to better outcomes.Long-term,we are moving towards an interoperable healthcare system where the patient has full data sovereignty and all her practitioners,devices,insurers,clinics,care personnel,and pharmacies can
189、easily communicate with each other and get access to the data they need to make optimal decisions.Healthcare 2.0 Page 23 Closing Thoughts The impact of the future of healthcare will be enormous.Multi-Omics will allow us to get a holistic understanding of the human body.This will lead to personalized
190、 and targeted treatments that increase efficiency and reduce negative side-effects.Also,by having a better understanding of how humans and diseases work,researchers will be able to make predictions on potential issues that might only arise later in life.Combined with continuous monitoring through we
191、arables,the market for preventive care will grow massively.In cases where a doctor visit is unavoidable it will become a seamless experience through the use of telemedicine and a fully interoperable healthcare system,leading to higher efficiencies and better outcomes for everyone.References 1 Two Ye
192、ars of U.S.COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths(commonwealthfund.org)2 COVID-19 Vaccinations administered in the US by Company()3 In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates 4 Cardiovascular diseases(who.int)5 DNA Sequencing Costs(g
193、enome.gov)6 Newborn Genomes Programme(genomicsengland.co.uk)7 Analyzing changes in respiratory rate to predict the risk of COVID-19 infection 8 Global connected wearable devices 2016-2022 ()9 Telehealth:A quarter-trillion-dollar post-COVID-19 reality?()Healthcare 2.0 Page 24 Introduction When we loo
194、k at growth trends,it is often the technology sector that gets the most attention.It is,however,our belief that especially the next couple of decades will see fundamental changes in more traditional industrial processes and with change or more specifically,with the need for change comes innovation.T
195、he current drivers that accelerate this need for change are manifold.On one side,the Paris agreement and the global pledge to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 pose an enormous challenge for industry,especially where a lot of energy is required.A net zero industry will require innovation,new t
196、echnological approaches,and,in some areas,a complete re-thinking of business models,supply chains,and production processes.On the other side,the geopolitical turmoil that has massively intensified with the conflict in Ukraine in 2022 is increasingly challenging the idea of globally optimized product
197、ion and globalization itself.Terms like near-shoring and re-shoring are now commonly found in governmental and corporate strategy papers across the globe.This too,will require substantial changes to how industry operates today.Furthermore,the increasingly prominent armed conflicts are pushing the de
198、fense industry very much into the spotlight yet again.And this covers more than just traditional producers of tanks and guns the battlefield is expanding rapidly into the cyberspace,and technologies as diverse as artificial intelligence or laser technology are becoming more and more strategically re
199、levant.In this chapter,we will try to look into each of these areas and try to identify some of the potential benefactors and players in helping shape the industry of the future.De-Globalization or Production Re-Shoring Only a few years back,prior to a global pandemic and war in Europe,global indust
200、rial production was largely following a center of excellence type of model,in which specific parts of the most relevant production chains were heavily concentrated in one place,where know-how,resources,and workforce were most optimally suited to deliver this specific service or component at the lowe
201、st possible cost.Following decades of relatively high levels of peacefulness in the main industrial nations of the world,this FUTURE MANUFACTURING The Future of Industry and Manufacturing how will technology change the way goods are produced and delivered in the future?By Konrad Sippel Future Manufa
202、cturing Page 25 has allowed substantial growth in international trade.1 This development has,for example,led to a country as small as Taiwan producing roughly 50%of the worlds microchips.2 But starting with Donald Trumps“America First“policy,the first cracks started to appear in this model.Since the
203、n,we have seen government incentives for local industrial production.One area in which this trend is already visible is Mexico.As the United States and Canada include“local”production in Mexico into their incentives for re-shoring services from Asia,Mexico aims to increase its U.S.bound production b
204、y USD 35 billion according to the Inter-American Development Bank.3 Yet,incentives aside,local production is inevitably less efficient and more cost intensive than that of the previous globally optimized model.As companies strive to maintain their operating margins while dealing with this increase i
205、n cost,the attention shifts to improvements of production processes.Areas in which innovation in automation and robotics may have stalled due to the availability of cheap labor in other parts of the world are now scrambling to find automation solutions to streamline labor intensive production proces
206、ses in an on-shore setting.An interesting potential growth field in this context could be the industrial scale use of 3D printing.While the first 3D printers that caused the original hype around this technology were never built or intended for large scale industrial production,there are now a number
207、 of companies developing the necessary ingredients from hardware,to printing materials and necessary software to push the technology to large scale industrial adoption.4 Coupled with increasing costs of global transportation due to de-carbonization efforts along with the discussed trend towards prod
208、uction re-shoring,there may well be room for a next generation of 3D printing applications and this time the technology may just be ready to scale.The Next Arms Race:Critical Technologies of Tomorrow Innovations and technological advances will change our view on strategic and geopolitically relevant
209、 industries over the coming decades.In the past,strategic industries have focused on themes like weapons manufacturing,power,natural resources,as well as core infrastructure.In an increasingly digital and connected world,these remain relevant however,an entirely new set of strategic technologies is
210、now emerging.For example,almost all relevant industries are expanding their use of cloud computing and AI driven services using the cost effective and highly scalable SaaS(Software as a Service)model.The necessary infrastructure,technology,and ultimately know-how are highly concentrated in a few lar
211、ge providers the so called hyperscalers.With the exception of Alibaba in China,all three remaining providers of large scale cloud services are based in the United States.This dependency and lack of autonomy in a critical technology field has prompted the EUs Priority technologies for the US departme
212、nt of defense AI Directed Energy Biotechnology Hypersonics Autonomy Space Cybersecurity 5G FNC 3 Microelectronics Quantum Science AI Directed Energy Biotechnology Hypersonics Autonomy Space Cybersecurity 5G FNC 3 Microelectronics Quantum Science Future Manufacturing Page 26 Gaia-X initiative to crea
213、te European sovereignty in the space of cloud,big data,and AI technologies.The potential use of these modern technologies in a military context also requires governments worldwide to ensure sufficient investment and know-how within their own geopolitical influence sphere to remain competitive on the
214、 battlefield of the future.Of course,relevant strategic assets are by no means limited to the above case of AI and big data.There are a number of potentially critical and relevant technologies and industries that might well become critical strategic assets.New World,New Industry:Will we also need ne
215、w Infrastructure?Finally,this new net-zero world with a transformed industrial production value chain and 100%renewable energy production will also require a substantially changed infrastructure.Starting with the(already)obvious,it is clear that the electrification of transportation alone will requi
216、re an entirely new alternative infrastructure to be established.The electric vehicle charging infrastructure we see today is merely a drop in the ocean compared to what will be required in infrastructure by the year 2050.Imagine a set of EV fast charging stations wherever you see a gas station today
217、 and more,with the majority of inner-city parking spots being equipped with some form of charging infrastructure.An even larger infrastructural change is required in order to sustain the carbon free energy generation of the future.The most established forms of renewable energy creation namely Solar
218、and Wind energy creation have all seen spectacular growth in the last decade and will continue to grow rapidly on the path to a net zero future(click here for our paper on Solar,and here for our paper on Wind Energy).However,these technologies and their widespread use require new energy infrastructu
219、re.Today,31%of energy demand is attributed to electricity generation a number expected to grow to at least 51%by 2030,following the electrification of many sectors(such as cars or home heating going electric).Therefore,massive investments into energy transmission infrastructure are expected to follo
220、w in the wake of renewables expansion.Furthermore,current power transmission technology isnt very efficient,losing a lot of electricity over hundreds of kilometers of cables a considerable issue given that solar or wind farms are not typically close to the end point of use in major cities,but rather
221、 in more remote areas where land is much cheaper.Specialized direct current lines represent a relatively new entry in the energy infrastructure arena,offering high efficiency and minimal losses over large distances.Currently,only two countries operate such cables:Brazil(two cables)and China(25 cable
222、s).Going electric implies that such cables will see an explosion in demand.Large amounts of energy from suitable locations for wind turbines will need to be transferred on high powered grid lines across entire continents in order to ensure energy coverage everywhere.Those grids will also have to ope
223、rate in a significantly smarter way giving way to the formation of a new business area in the space of Smart Grids.Industrial production based entirely on renewable energy sources also faces the issue that,unlike with fossil fuels,the energy production is not Future Manufacturing Page 27 constant as
224、 it is dependent on environmental factors such as sunshine hours and wind speeds.In order to guarantee a continuous supply of energy for industrial production,large scale energy storage solutions are needed.So large scale,in fact,that lithium-ion based batteries likely will not suffice and other tec
225、hnological solutions will have to be found or further developed,opening up a whole field of new business growth in the area of energy storage especially since there is a projected shortage of lithium and other minerals required for battery production over the next 15 years.5 Concurrently,several alt
226、ernative energy storage technologies are now in various stages of development,such as different types of batteries that are not lithium-ion(i.e.,solid-state,aluminum,or sodium batteries,among others).On the other side of the spectrum,there are water batteries(a.k.a.pump storage),gravity batteries,or
227、 flywheels more on these in the Future of Energy chapter of this report.References 1 Trade and Globalization-Our World in Data 2 Semiconductor Manufacturing by Country 2023()3 Mexicos nearshoring potential likely to grow as alignment with US increases|S&P Global()4 Three Areas Holding Back The$10.6B
228、 3D Printing Industry()5 LU Leven University,Metals for Clean Energy:Pathways to Solving Europes Raw Materials Challenge,2022.Future Manufacturing Page 28 Cyborgs with Online Superpowers When we think about Digitalization today,we may think of replacing paper-based workflows with digital ones:airpla
229、ne boarding passes on mobile phones,cashless payments,or online shopping.And indeed,in the past couple of decades,the phenomenal digitalization of our surroundings has given rise to enormous economic growth and entire industries.While such digitalization will certainly continue,driving more growth i
230、n the process,its not what we consider a Future Trend.Instead,what we are talking about is the digitization of ourselves.In 2016,Elon Musk said that we are in effect already Cyborgs by way of enhancing our powers with online abilities like instant knowledge or communication.We even have digital vers
231、ions of ourselves.1 With close to 100%of adults now owning a smartphone,2 that powerful extension of our own abilities is already in our pockets.In the same interview,Musk views a symbiotic merge of humans and digital intelligence as the solution to surviving a world dominated by ultra-powerful AI s
232、ystems.1 In this part of our Future Trends report we take a closer look at the different aspects of personal digitalization and the business opportunities that arise from an increased acceptance of digitalization.Of course,in a rapidly developing field like this it is hard to exactly predict how it
233、will develop,however,our goal with this paper is to explore the most promising fields of development as we see them today.Status Quo:Where Are We Now?The year 2022 has been a breakthrough year for the public perception of artificial intelligence(AI):with the release of ChatGPT,the general public is
234、now getting a comprehensible glimpse of the capabilities that AI systems can develop given sufficient data and computing resources for training.With the AI race now firmly kicked-off,we can expect substantially faster developments in this field in the years to come which we cover in our dedicated ch
235、apter on AI within this report.The development in AI does have a major impact on the digital me,as it may well accelerate not only public acceptance,but also the speed at which new personal digitalization tools are developed.We are about to explore how we will consume and interact with these increas
236、ingly powerful digital tools leading us to a new self-definition in an at least partially digital space driven by machine-human interaction and its influence on our self-description and self-perceptions into a new“digital me”.3 This digital-me is defined by the increasing symbiosis of people and mac
237、hines.Other than in already heavily regulated areas of DIGITAL ME As digital technology slowly begins to merge with humans,entirely new businesses will emerge while others face transformative disruption through this new technology.By Konrad Sippel Digital Me Page 29 full autonomy(such as self-drivin
238、g cars for example),the advantage of personal digitization is that there remains an element of human control.In this field,we use digital tools and helpers to enhance our own capabilities,but(at least for now)we remain the ultimate decision maker and hence also a corrective element in case the AI fa
239、ils us.After all,we would(hopefully)stop short of driving off a cliff just because Google maps tells us to head that way.On the other hand,the concept of having a map,geolocator,and compass right in your phone is certainly more convenient than handling a clunky map.But why stop there?Wouldnt it be e
240、ven better to have that information“displayed”right in front of you?It could well be that the smartphone is merely a bridge technology until augmented reality technology fully embeds with our bodies and brains the needed software and technology are already under development today.Like with AI,there
241、will be many ethical questions and discussions ahead as to how to use and regulate these and other technologies.But there is undoubtedly huge potential unfolding in this space.So,lets get into it.Metaverse One already fairly developed example of how machine-human interactions change and how these ch
242、anges in turn affect the human-human communication is the concept of the Metaverse.Driven by new and increasingly affordable virtual reality technology,the Metaverse offers a new dimension to the interaction with digital content.After the first hype around the re-naming of Facebook to Meta and the m
243、ovie“Ready Player One”has evaporated,we find ourselves on the other side of the first hill on the typical hype curve.Source:How the Metaverse is Making Money|Statista Even so,we continue to believe that the technologies and applications developed in this area continue to retain a huge growth potenti
244、al,as we are about to argue with help from ChatGPT.The number one projected use case in 2030 according to data from Statista will be e-commerce.What does that mean?Virtual and augmented reality can radically change the experience of shopping online.Lets fast-forward technological development a littl
245、e bit and assume that everyone has access to an easy-to-use and comfortable to wear VR or AR headset.Browsing stores and wares,while changing colors,lighting,or the entire backdrop could be as realistic as being in the store itself but way more convenient as it can be done from the comfort of your l
246、iving room.This procedure could be the next frontier of online shopping,in which even the things that you really want to see or feel before buying today can be experienced online(think cars or furniture)just like todays internet and online retailers like Amazon have ushered in a new dimension for sh
247、opping when the current(commonly denominated as Web 2.0)internet became broadly accessible.This new dimension has also led to exponential growth in online Digital Me Page 30 shopping.We can easily imagine that a virtual reality-based 3D version of the internet can kick-off another growth period for
248、e-commerce.Other markets such as education and trainings(think pilot training or practicing complex and risky surgery operations)will begin to expand as the hardware inevitably becomes cheaper and easier to use,reducing entry barriers and creating incentives for trainings to be switched from reality
249、 into virtual settings.And then there is gaming,of course.Todays gaming applications are merely scratching the surface of what type of experiences could be offered once the technology develops further.The Metaverse opportunity as described by ChatGPT Device to Brain Connectivity Now,lets take it one
250、 step further.What if we didnt actually need a smartphone or computer screen anymore and if there was no need for a VR/AR headset whether clunky or not?What if we could push the data we want to see directly into our brains or our consciousness?After all,what we currently see is ultimately based on d
251、ata collected by a sensor(the retina in our eyes),which is then passed on to our brains in order to generate the image we ultimately believe to be seeing.So,in a way,looking at a screen is a little bit like holding your smartphone screen in front of the camera on a video call to share your favorite
252、photo with another person that you are video chatting with.In that setting,it of course makes much more sense to just share your screen,right?Companies like Neuralink are working on so called Brain-Computer-Interface(BCI)technology with the aim to develop a link between a human and a computer that d
253、oesnt require interface equipment like a mouse,keyboard,or even a monitor.If this technology is successfully developed,the potential use cases are mind-blowing think everything we said about the Metaverse,but on steroids.Clearly this technology is in the early stages and security,ethical,and legal q
254、uestions are far from sufficiently answered.Neuralinks 2022 application for testing the technology on humans in the US was duly rejected by the FDA citing safety reasons.4 But while Neuralink is probably the most famous example,it is not alone.There are a host of other companies that are working on
255、various use cases based on the general idea of BCI technology from tools that measure brain waves in order to trigger complementary measures(such as playing the right type of music)to enhance cognitive powers to companies focused on providing solutions for medical patients with neurodegenerative dis
256、eases or are paralyzed as the result of spinal cord injuries.5 The Metaverse is not just a game,but a platform for innovation and creativity that can impact the way we interact with each other and our physical world.It offers endless possibilities for entertainment,socializing,and commerce.With the
257、Metaverse,we can create digital representations of ourselves and interact with others in a virtual world.We can attend virtual conferences,go to virtual concerts,and even try on virtual clothing.The Metaverse is already attracting significant investments,with Facebook investing$10 billion in buildin
258、g the Metaverse and companies like Roblox and Epic Games already generating substantial revenue from virtual goods and experiences.Digital Me Page 31 Robotics While not directly digitalizing us,the increasing number of robots that support our daily lives,whether at the workplace or at home,will sign
259、ificantly alter our interactions with the world around us.Robots are already everywhere we look acting more or less hidden from plain views,especially if we include software automation that is omnipresent in smartphones,for example,providing unprecedented levels of convenience in everyday tasks from
260、 taking photos to typing down meeting notes or emails.Using automation around us also transforms the way we act as humans.For example,digital assistants are increasingly taking over the task of writing by hand such as for shopping lists or notes for other family members.Much easier to just ask the d
261、igital assistant of your choice,that is probably permanently listening to you from a smart device somewhere in the room anyway to just add it to your digital shopping list or drop a quick message to someone elses phone.So,in a way,thanks to Robotics around us,we are able to increasingly digitize our
262、 actions and interactions and hence become more digital ourselves.Another aspect of robotics that could have a major impact on how we live and work is the application of exoskeletons.According to markets and markets,the exoskeleton market is projected to grow with close to 40%per year to reach 3.7 b
263、illion US Dollar in 2028 with most of that growth coming from China,Japan and India.6 Small numbers for now,but certainly a market to watch,especially in combination with advances in brain interface technology.Wearables&Personalized Digital Medicine Another form of personal digitization is taking pl
264、ace through ever increasing data collection in form of multiple sensors integrated into wearable devices such as watches,fitness trackers,or even rings.Continuing innovation in this space means that the type of measurements that sensors can make increases massively while at the same time,size,batter
265、y consumption,and most importantly production costs shrink rapidly.This means that the gadgets containing these sensors are becoming more and more affordable and feasible to wear.According to Statista,the number of connected wearable devices worldwide has more than tripled from 2016 to 2022,with ove
266、r 1.1 billion devices in use in 2022.7 If you compare that to over seven billion mobile device users,then this offers some glimpse of the potential growth that could lie ahead here as that technology reaches higher acceptance with users.But the potential doesnt stop there.Diabetics can already measu
267、re their insulin levels with an implanted 0.8 cm long sensor combined with a patch on the skin that transmits the data to an app on their smartphone.This does not only provide a massive improvement in comfort vs.previous methods,that required poking a finger to draw a small amount of blood Digital M
268、e Page 32 but it also allows for permanent monitoring and emergency alerts in cases of potential shocks when the user is not alert such as when sleeping.For now,these applications are limited to concrete medical applications but its not hard to foresee a future in which more and more medical data wi
269、ll be collected on the go by every day users just like pretty much every smart watch now records their owners heart rate 24/7.Coupled with the respective analytics software on the phone,some providers are already offering the option of providing a detailed report on the data for use of medical profe
270、ssionals.Similar to the massive increase in available of data driven by connected devices as part of the so-called internet-of-things,the rise of medical sensors will give rise to unprecedented potential for AI-driven analytics.If this can be coupled with real medical diagnosis data,the idea of perm
271、anent medical supervision and ultra-early detection of diseases is no pipe dream and has potential to completely transform the processes in the healthcare industry.References 1 Elon Musk:Were already cyborgs-The Verge 2 Smartphones Have Turned Us into Cyborgs 3 The Digital Self.Impact of Digitalisat
272、ion on Personal Identity Civil Resilience 4 U.S.regulators rejected Elon Musks bid to test brain chips in humans()5 Top Neuralink Alternatives,Competitors()6 Exoskeleton Market Size,Industry Report,Growth Drivers,Trends,Analysis,2032()7 Global connected wearable devices 2016-2022|Statista Digital Me
273、 Page 33 The Final Frontier The space industry is currently experiencing explosive growth and has the potential to become the fastest growing industry on the planet.Spearheaded by private space companies like SpaceX(alongside Blue Origin,Virgin Galactic,and others),the commercialization of space is
274、becoming increasingly economically-feasible due to technological innovations and plummeting launch costs.The idea of permanent bases or even colonies on the moon or Mars sounds less and less like science fiction,and more like plain fact,instead.In the meantime,the global space industry is expected t
275、o grow from USD 350 billion in 2020 to USD 1.4 trillion no later than 2040 1 2 3 Mind you,thats sooner than our Net Zero targets.If we manage to pull it off,the industrialization of space could be akin to the industrial revolution of the 19th century,opening the door to a cascade of further technolo
276、gical advancements in many different fields such as medical science,communication infrastructure,hypersonic travel,space tourism,and even asteroid mining which has the potential to permanently solve the problem of scarce resources like lithium,rare-earth metals,or other minerals needed to propel hum
277、anity to the next(carbon-free)level.Rockets Go Up,Costs Go Down Previously an exclusive,unreachable playground for governments alone,the ultimate frontier is now being tamed by private initiatives that do what businesses do best:optimize efficiency,minimize costs,and ultimately maximize profits.Back
278、 in 2011,when NASA was still flying routine missions to low-earth orbit,the cost to launch payload into orbit was about USD 65,000 per kg mind you,NASAs space shuttle was meant to be(semi)reusable in an effort to reduce costs.In the meantime,Russias Soyuz rockets became cheaper and more efficient,to
279、 the point that costs fell to about USD 18,000 per kg of payload launched into orbit.Enter,SpaceX the company whose innovative approach of making the rocket booster entirely reusable translated into costs plummeting to about USD 2,600 per kg.As a result,NASA itself now hires SpaceX,a private company
280、,to launch payloads into orbit.In contrast,whereas NASAs space shuttle was reusable,the booster stages were not resulting in high costs per launch(think of throwing away half of your car after every journey).SpaceXs rocket booster delivers its payload then returns while spending only fuel.SPACE ECON
281、OMY We cant talk about the future and ignore humanitys ultimate economic frontier:space.Nearly half a century after humans were last on the moon,interest for commercializing space is starting to grow as technological advancements and falling launch costs make such thoughts more viable than ever.Are
282、we about to witness the industrialization of space?By Emanuel Cozmanciuc Space Economy Page 34 A New Space Race Some have predicted that the worlds first trillionaire could emerge from the space industry,given the potential for commercialization and industrialization of space.One thing we can count
283、on is that such promise of riches will compel humans to try and the space industry does indeed offer momentous opportunities for investors,involving a wide area of activities:satellite communication,space tourism,asteroid mining,and scientific research.Furthermore,the space industry has the potentia
284、l to solve some of the worlds most pressing problems,such as climate change and resource depletion,by providing access to new sources of energy and raw materials.As such,the space industry is likely to attract significant investment in the coming years,as investors seek to capitalize on these opport
285、unities and drive innovation in the sector.And its not only the private sector,but governments too that are incentivized to support the private space industry by way of funding or providing know-how(e.g.,NASA expertise).In other words,billions are already flowing in from both the private and public
286、sectors.Furthermore,the space industry is becoming ever-more investable,with several IPOs expected in the near future:SpaceX,Blue Origin,and Rocket Lab.The space industry not only is essential to help us better understand our place in the universe,but also provides opportunities for scientific resea
287、rch and further technological development that is infeasible on Earth.For example,microgravity reduces sedimentation and eliminates the effects of buoyancy,making it easier to combine different substances or achieve certain chemical reactions.As another example,the semiconductor industry may stand t
288、o gain from production processes in low Earth orbit,as spaces vacuum could facilitate thin-layering techniques for semiconductor manufacturing by reducing or eliminating gasses during production.Within the pharmaceutical industry,the higher levels of radiation in space(650 x stronger)affect gene exp
289、ression and may yield new insights in predicting diseases.Source:World Economic Forum,Space Tech Analytics Top 10 Countries in the Space Sector(as of 2021)Space Economy Page 35 First Stop:Moon Colony While Mars colonies seem to be getting all the limelight,the logical first step would actually be to
290、 establish a permanent,semi self-sufficient base on the Moon thankfully,going to the moon is far easier than going to Mars.Why bother with a moon base first?Because it would open the gateway for everything else.First,the moon could act as a fuel station:the moon has lots of ice under the surface,whi
291、ch could be turned into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis powered by solar panels.There you go:water to drink and grow food,oxygen to breathe,hydrogen as a rocket fuel,and oxygen again as an oxidizer for the rocket fuel.Establishing a refueling station on the moon would make further travel to ast
292、eroids or to Mars much,much cheaper and easier.Even with SpaceXs low launch costs,it would still cost prohibitively much for asteroid mining to be profitable if we have to first launch the needed rocket fuel from Earth into orbit.Second,the Moons lower gravity and lack of atmosphere makes it exponen
293、tially easier for rockets to achieve orbit and travel to other destinations in the solar system.Furthermore,the Moon is rich in various other resources that could be used to support human settlement.This would reduce the need to transport these resources from Earth and make space exploration more su
294、stainable in the long run.Establishing a colony on the Moon could also serve as a testbed for technologies and techniques that could be used for more ambitious missions to other destinations in the solar system.Source:Haver Analytics,Morgan Stanley Research Forecasts Global Space Economy Projections
295、(USD,thousands)$0$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000$1,000,00020018e2019e2020e2021e2022e2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e2031e2032e2033e2034e2035e2036e2037e2038e2039e2040eGlobal Space Economy Projections(USD,thousands)Consumer TVConsumer RadioConsumer BroadbandFixed Satellite Services
296、Mobile Satellite ServicesEarth Observation ServicesGround EquipmentSatellite ManufacturingSatellite LaunchNon Satellite IndustrySecond Order ImpactsSpace Economy Page 36 For example,living and working on the Moon would provide valuable experience in managing life support systems,dealing with radiati
297、on exposure,and conducting scientific research in a harsh environment.Asteroid Mining:A New Gold Rush With refueling infrastructure on the Moon in place,mining asteroids would become a relative breeze.While the idea of asteroid mining is not new,recent advances in space technology and the emergence
298、of private space companies have made it a more realistic possibility,which we may even experience in our lifetimes.As the name suggests,asteroid mining is all about extracting valuable resources such as water,(precious)metals,and minerals from asteroids.Most importantly,certain resources that are ve
299、ry scarce and expensive on Earth are abundant on asteroids.As the costs to launch spacecrafts keeps falling,the prospects for economically viable asteroid mining keep increasing.The day when traveling to an asteroid becomes cheaper than buying precious metals on Earth is the day when we will see the
300、 first asteroid exploitation companies.Therefore,the global market for asteroid mining could be worth trillions of dollars in the coming decades.However,it is important to note that the feasibility and profitability of asteroid mining will depend on several factors,including the availability of reso
301、urces,the cost of mining and transporting materials back to Earth or other destinations,and the regulatory and legal frameworks that govern space activities.Several private space companies(such as Planetary Resources or Deep Space Industries)are already exploring the feasibility of asteroid mining a
302、nd have proposed various business models for extracting and utilizing resources from asteroids.Some companies are focusing on mining water from asteroids to support future human space exploration,while others are looking at extracting valuable metals and minerals for use in manufacturing and industr
303、y.Overall,while asteroid mining remains a speculative industry with many technical and economic challenges to overcome,it could potentially provide a significant source of valuable resources in the future.The timeline for when asteroid mining will be feasible on a large scale remains uncertain and w
304、ill depend on continued advances in space technology and the development of new business models for exploiting resources in space.Space Tourism Space tourism is an emerging sector in the space industry,its role in the overall space economy remaining to be seen.However,it does have the potential to p
305、lay a substantial role in the future of space exploration and commerce.In recent years,several private companies(SpaceX,Virgin Galactic,Blue Origin,and more)have been developing space tourism offerings such as suborbital and orbital spaceflights,space hotels,and lunar tourism.While in its infancy,sp
306、ace tourism could potentially become a major industry in the next decade.According to some estimates,the global space tourism market could Space Economy Page 37 be worth billions of dollars by 2030,driven by demand from wealthy individuals,scientific researchers,and government agencies.Space tourism
307、 could also have broader implications for the space industry by helping to drive innovation,increase public interest in space exploration,and create new opportunities for collaboration between the public and private sectors.However,there are also significant challenges facing the space tourism indus
308、try,including high costs,technical and safety risks,and regulatory hurdles.As with the other future trends in this report,it remains to be seen how quickly the space tourism industry will mature and whether it will ultimately play a major or minor role in the overall space economy.Closing Thoughts F
309、or thousands of years,humans have gazed into the night sky and wondered about our place among the stars.Given recent advancements driving down launch costs,a true space economy in which people fly to orbit just like we fly across oceans today is beginning to sound less and less like science fiction
310、and more like plain fact.Space exploration has historically been a driver for technological breakthroughs,with spin-off technologies ranging from medical devices to consumer electronics.In the upcoming decades,we might start seeing new tech that today would seem unrealistic and even silly all due to
311、 new production processes enabled by microgravity or lack of atmosphere.With the advent of 100%reusable rockets and potentially with the help of refueling infrastructure directly in space within the next few decades we may start seeing precious metals,rare minerals,and other(hilariously)expensive ma
312、terials available for comparatively low prices.Finally,we might witness the creation of a space-to-space economy:goods produced in space sold in space(e.g.,rocket fuel or even the rockets themselves).Until that point,however,it is worth considering how precious,yet delicate,mother Earth is to our en
313、tire existence.Before we can diversify and colonize other worlds,we would be wise to cherish our own.References 1 Morgan Stanley:Investing In Space 2 Space Industry to reach$1 trillion by 2040 3 Bank of America expects the space industry to reach$1.4 trillion within a decade Page 38 New AI applicati
314、ons such as ChatGTP demonstrate what AI is already capable of and have pushed its popularity a lot recently.In fact,AI is already playing a crucial role in many industries and this role will become ever more important over the next decades.While the potential benefits of AI are vast,the rapid pace o
315、f change also brings risks and challenges for many companies.As AI continues to advance,many businesses may find themselves struggling to keep up with the latest technological developments or may fail to see the potential impact of AI on their industry until its too late.The uproar caused by the rel
316、ease of ChatGPT was probably just the beginning and showed how quickly new AI tools can take over tasks that were long considered impossible to automate.Even companies that are already developing and utilize their own AI applications,and thus may have had an advantage over their competitors up to no
317、w,can quickly lose this advantage again as soon as a new,more powerful AI system becomes available that makes the old solutions obsolete.While it is very hard to evaluate which companies will benefit the most from exploiting AI,there are certain industries that build the foundation of the“AI movemen
318、t”.Companies that engage in fundamental research to build new AI algorithms and applications will be able to provide their products and services to a variety of industries.On the other hand,companies that produce the underlying infrastructure to effectively use AI will be in a very similar spot.Towa
319、rds new Frontiers Firms that are active in fundamental AI research are working on developing new algorithms and models that can improve the performance of existing AI systems or even come up with entirely new approaches.These algorithms and models may be designed for specific applications,such as im
320、age recognition or natural language processing,or they may be more general-purpose.AlphaFold,for instance,is an example of a very specific application of AI.By utilizing neural networks,AlphaFold tries to predict the structure of proteins a problem that is very hard to solve.Over the last 60 years r
321、esearchers were able to identify the structures of around 170,000 proteins.In 2021,AlphaFold released its first results,including predictions of 350,000 protein structures.As of now,their database includes ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Artificial intelligence(AI)is poised to revolutionize almost every ind
322、ustry in the years ahead,reshaping the way we live and work.As AI continues to evolve,companies that are actively engaged in AI research and infrastructure development will be at the forefront of this technological revolution.By Hannes Urban Artificial Intelligence Page 39 more than 200 million stru
323、ctures that is all proteins found on Earth so far.Over the course of just five years,the team behind AlphaFold was able to revolutionize biology.Another example of an AI tool that took the world by storm goes under the name“DALL-E”.It creates images given any prompt that a user types in no matter ho
324、w ridiculous the query might be(see picture).The ability of these algorithms to generate really any image got researchers thinking.A team from the University of Washington developed an algorithm very similar to DALL-E and trained it on a database of protein structures(RoseTTAFold a very similar appr
325、oach to AlphaFold)1.The results are astounding.By prompting the algorithm with specific needs for the proteins design,the AI gives back images of entirely new proteins that have never been seen in nature.For instance,they told the AI to generate a protein that binds to the COVID-19 virus.The AI came
326、 back with a protein that targets the virus spike proteins and thereby disabling the virus to penetrate the hosts cells.These still very early studies show the massive potential that AI has and illustrate the importance of fundamental research.Another focus for many companies is the development of A
327、I systems that can learn from data more efficiently and effectively.This includes developing new approaches to data preprocessing,feature selection,and model optimization.Other areas of research include developing new architectures for neural networks,exploring new methods for unsupervised learning,
328、and developing more advanced techniques for reinforcement learning.These firms may be focused on developing new tools and frameworks that can help make AI more accessible and easier to use.For example,they may be working on developing new programming languages,libraries,and other tools that can simp
329、lify the development and deployment of AI systems.One of the most prominent examples of such efforts is Tensorflow a open-source library for machine learning projects that enables users to entirely develop ML models from scratch and deploy them as live products.Since its initial release in 2015 the
330、library,developed by the Google Brain team,became one of the most used libraries in the context of AI.Overall,firms that are active in fundamental AI research are focused on pushing the boundaries of what is possible with AI,and developing new techniques,algorithms,and tools that can improve the per
331、formance and capabilities of AI systems.DALL-E picture of a stock market index in Van Gogh style Artificial Intelligence Page 40 AI Infrastructure Companies that are active in AI infrastructure are focused on building the tools and technologies that enable the development and deployment of AI models
332、 and applications.This includes hardware,software,and services that support the storage,processing,and analysis of large volumes of data.One key area of focus for AI infrastructure companies is developing hardware optimized for AI workloads.This includes specialized chips such as graphics processing
333、 units(GPUs)and application-specific integrated circuits(ASICs)that can perform complex calculations and neural network training more efficiently than traditional CPUs.According to Gartner,the market of chips used for AI will double over the next four years2.This will mainly be driven as running huge models requires tens of thousands of chips in order to keep training and response times acceptable