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1、Hydrogen Insights 2023An update on the state of the global hydrogen economy,with a deep dive into North AmericaMay 20232Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyPublished in May 2023 by the Hydrogen Council.Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded fro
2、m our website:This report was authored by the Hydrogen Council in collaboration with McKinsey&Company.The authors of the report confirm that:1.There are no recommendations and/or any measures and/or trajectories within the report that could be interpreted as standards or as any other form of(suggest
3、ed)coordination between the participants of the study referred to within the report that would infringe the EU competition law;and2.It is not their intention that any such form of coordination will be adopted.Whilst the contents of the report and its abstract implications for the industry generally
4、can be discussed once they have been prepared,individual strategies remain proprietary,confidential,and the responsibility of each participant.Participants are reminded that,as part of the invariable practice of the Hydrogen Council and the EU competition law obligations to which membership activiti
5、es are subject,such strategic and confidential information must not be shared or coordinated including as part of this report.3Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyThe Hydrogen Council has 145 members and is a global CEO-led initiative with a united vision and long-term ambitio
6、n for hydrogen to foster the clean energy transitionHydrogen Insights is the Hydrogen Councils perspective on the hydrogen industrys evolution.It summarizes the current state of the global hydrogen sector and actual hydrogen deployment.The Hydrogen Council and McKinsey&Company co-author this publica
7、tion.It represents a collaborative effort to share an objective,holistic,and quantitative perspective on the status of the global hydrogen ecosystem.11 Detailed methodology described in Hydrogen Insights 2021Steering membersSupporting membersInvestors14Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKi
8、nsey&Company01Hydrogen momentum continues to accelerate,but investment decisions are lagging1,000 hydrogen project proposals announced globally,795 of which plan full or partial deployment by 2030USD 320 billion direct investments into hydrogen projects announced through 2030,of which USD 29 billion
9、 have passed the final investment decision(FID)38 Mt p.a.clean hydrogen supply announced globally 2030,less than 1 Mt p.a.deployed today5Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 1Hydrogen momentum is strong:more than 1,000 project proposals have been announced globallyGloba
10、lly,the industry has announced more than 1,000 large-scale project proposals as of the end of January 2023.Since the previous publication,2 more than 350 new proposals have been announced.Of the total,795 aim to be fully or partially commissioned through 2030 and represent total investments of USD 3
11、20 billion of direct investments into hydrogen value chains through 2030(up from USD 240 billion).Europe remains the global leader in hydrogen project proposals,with the highest total investments(USD 117 billion,35%of global investments)and highest absolute growth (USD 40 billion).Latin America and
12、North America follow Europe,each representing about 15%of announced investments.Growth in North America increased following the announcement of the IRA(see Section 03 of this publication).Giga-scale project proposals(over 1 GW of electrolysis for renewable hydrogen supply or more than 200,000 kt p.a
13、.of low-carbon hydrogen)account for 112 project proposals(requiring about USD 150 billion investment until 2030),nearly doubling from 61 eight months ago.Of these 112 proposals,91 are renewable and 21 are low-carbon hydrogen.Momentum is strong,and the industry is planning investments into clean hydr
14、ogen,yet much more needs to be done.To be on track to net zero in 2050,more than a doubling of announced investments is needed by 2030 and these need to be matured and deployed.2 Hydrogen Insights 2022 with data from May 2022;comparisons in this report are relative to this publication unless stated
15、otherwiseSource:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,20231.Focus on projects of 1 MW553Large-scale industrial use94Integrated H2 economy96Infrastructure projects191Mobility112Giga-scale productioninvestments required to develop projects announced through 2030Europe20222023AfricaChinaOceaniaLatin
16、AmericaJapan,South Korea,rest of AsiaMiddle EastNorth America684 in May 2022$320 B1,046 projects11918176Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 2The project funnel is growing across project stages,yet remains skewed toward announcementsTotal announced investment
17、s until 2030 have increased by 35%in the past eight months from USD 240 billion to USD 320 billion.All project maturity stages have grown by 30%to 40%yet remain heavily skewed toward early-stage projects:almost half of the projects are announced but have not yet entered the planning stage,received g
18、overnment funding,are in advanced planning,or have taken FID.Overall,investments in the committed category have accelerated.They grew only 10%from September 2021 to May 2022 and 30%from May 2022 until January 2023,and the first large-scale projects have achieved FID in the last months.While Europe l
19、eads on announcements,North America leads with committed investments(USD 10 billion).Europe(USD 7 billion),the Middle East(USD 5 billion),and China(USD 5 billion)follow,with growth in China being the highest at more than 200%.3 Important projects of common European interestFor developers to take FID
20、,securing offtake and potentially government funding is key.Most projects at or past FID have either captive offtake,i.e.,developed by companies with internal demand for hydrogen,or long-term offtake contracts.In terms of government funding,the largest schemes are IPCEI3 in Europe(EUR 10.6 billion g
21、ranted in the first two rounds),the production tax credits(45V),and credits for carbon capture and storage(45Q)in the US.In Japan and South Korea,funding has supported infrastructure buildout(e.g.,refueling stations,liquid hydrogen value chain in Japan),whereas hydrogen clusters have received govern
22、ment funding in China.Despite a positive trend,less than 10%of the USD 320 billion announced investments through 2030 are real committed capital.The industry is maturing in strained supply chains,labor shortage(e.g.,EPC),increasing inflation and interest rates,and lack of public support in many mark
23、ets,all of which may slow deployment.By 2030,committed capital must increase more than twentyfold to track a net-zero scenario.For this to result in clean hydrogen deployment,the resources and equipment must be available to ensure deployment of clean hydrogen supply projects,prevent infrastructure b
24、ottlenecks,and enable hydrogen-ready end-user plants.1.Front-end engineering designDirect hydrogen investments until 2030,$BSource:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,2023 MayAnnouncedPlanning stageAdvanced planningCommittedFeasibility studiesFEED1 studiesFID,under construction,operationalJan202
25、22023MayJan20222023MayJan20222023MayJan29372920222023investment growth in 8 months+35%of investments focus on supply65%22$320 Btotal announced investments$170 Bmature investmentsEnd use and offtakeInfrastructureProduction and supply7Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&Comp
26、anyExhibit 3Europe,North America,and the Far East have the largest number of projects with committed capitalThe geographic perspective on the project funnel indicates that regions with high energy demand and early focus on hydrogen as a decarbonization vector(e.g.,Europe,China,and North America)have
27、 advanced more projects to FID.In regions expected to export clean hydrogen and its derivatives(e.g.,Latin America,Australia,Middle East,Africa)with limited local demand,projects tend to be larger and in earlier stages of development(feasibility or FEED studies).Few of these projects have passed FID
28、,and many are developed in phases,potentially due to the lower risk of deploying a smaller project or limited current market size for clean hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives(e.g.,ammonia,methanol).The average investment size of a project that has passed FID is about USD 100 million on average,wherea
29、s projects in the early stage(i.e.,announced)require about USD 600 million investment on average,4 showcasing the growing scale of hydrogen projects.4 Total announced investment volumes divided by number of projects in each investment stage(project counted by earliest maturity stage,e.g.,a project w
30、ith phase 1 in FEED and phase 2 in Announced will be counted as FEED)1.For multiphase projects,phase 1 decides the project maturitySource:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,2023260 projects announcedPreliminary studies or press announcement stage172 projects in feasibility studies83 projects in
31、 FEED studies280 projects committedFID taken,under construction or operationalprojects without specified COD or COD post-2030(not shown)projects with full or partial commissioning(COD)by 2030+254728036287861Large-scale industrial useIntegrated H2 economyInfrastructur
32、e projectsMobilityGiga-scale production8Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 4Announced production volumes increased by more than 40%to 38 Mt p.a.,reaching half the volume needed in 2030 to be on track to net zeroCompanies have announced 38 Mt p.a.clean hydrogen product
33、ion plans globally for 2030 across low-carbon and renewable hydrogen(up from 26 Mt p.a.),of which about half is in the planning stage or has committed capital.More than two-thirds of the 38 Mt p.a.are renewable hydrogen(about 25 Mt p.a.),and the remainder is low-carbon(about 13 Mt p.a.).Of the 12 Mt
34、 p.a.supply projects added in the past eight months,about 10 Mt p.a.are renewable hydrogen driven by the high growth in announcements in renewables-rich regions(e.g.,Africa,Middle East).The data also reveals that developing and deploying projects can take longer than initially estimated by developer
35、s.For instance,as of October 2021,the industry had announced a cumulative deployment of nearly 6 GW electrolysis by the end of 2022(equivalent to about 0.7 Mt p.a.5 renewable hydrogen supply),while actual deployment as of January 2023 stands at only 700 MW.The next three to five years represent a si
36、gnificant scale-up challenge:nearly 3 Mt p.a.of capacity has passed FID(of which only 0.8 Mt p.a.is operational)and should be deployed in the coming years,predominantly in North America(about 70%of volumes),followed by Asia-Pacific (about 15%,most of which is in China)and the Middle East(8%).In 2030
37、,38 Mt p.a.is roughly half what is needed to be on track to a net-zero scenario6(75 Mt p.a.in 2030).Closing this gap is challenging,as renewable hydrogen projects are struggling with slow permitting,supply of electrolyzers,solar panels,wind turbines,and EPC capacity constraints.Low-carbon hydrogen p
38、rojects also face challenges;large-scale infrastructure for carbon capture,transportation,and storage must be built,which requires permitting(often complex and lengthy)as well as significant capital and labor.5 Assuming 70%load factor and 67%efficiency(lower heating value)6 Detailed in the Hydrogen
39、for Net Zero publication (November 2021)Cumulative production capacity announced,Mt p.a.1.Preliminary studies or at press announcement stage2.Feasibility studies or at front-end engineering and design stage3.Final investment decision has been made,under construction,commissioned or operationalSource
40、:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,2023Announced as of Jan 2023May 2022EoY 2021EoY 2020EoY 2019Announced1Low-carbon hydrogenRenewable hydrogenPlanning2Committed3Announced1Planning2Committed338202022728292030share of capacity in top 3 markets(Europe,North America,Latin America)70%add
41、itional capacity(low-carbon and renewable)announced for post-2030+16 Mt9Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 5Europe is the largest in terms of announced supply,followed by the Americas and OceaniaAnnounced supply of clean hydrogen is a global phenomenon,and each region
42、 shows growth in announced supply.Particularly the African continent has announced significant new capacity(more than 200%),as has the Middle East,where announced volumes more than doubled.Yet,Europe and North America remain the largest markets for announced hydrogen supply,with 13 Mt p.a.and 9 Mt p
43、.a.,respectively.Notably,North America has the largest volumes in 2025,with 2.8 Mt p.a.announced,of which 70%is low-carbon hydrogen.Despite Europes clear position as leading on announced volumes,this is not reflected in the maturity of the project funnel,of which only 5%are committed volumes.Other r
44、egions have a significantly higher share of mature volumes.Of the total announced supply in China,about 40%is committed,while in North America,the share is 20%.The low announced volumes in China particularly could be due to fewer companies announcing their plans or different public support schemes.I
45、n North America,more than 70%of the capacity announced is low-carbon hydrogen,which,in many cases,is lower cost for the end user.Developers in the US have received tax credits to capture and store CO2(45Q credit in place before the IRA).Further,low-carbon hydrogen is less capital intense at about US
46、D 2.5 to USD 3.5 billion per Mt capacity versus USD 4.5 to USD 7 billion per Mt capacity for renewable hydrogen.This could explain the higher maturity of the project pipeline in North America.Source:US 45Q federal tax creditClean hydrogen volumes announced,Mt p.a.Source:Project&Investment tracker,as
47、 of Jan 31,20234.53.925.612.3654553570%announced electrolysis capacity by 2030 in Europe,the largest global region80 GW23220202272829203011Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 7More investments are needed along the hydrogen value chain to close an
48、investment gap of USD 380 billion by 2030Growth in total announced investments(from USD 240 billion to USD 320 billion)and projects passing FID(from USD 22 billion to USD 29 billion)is positive.However,more is needed regarding new project proposals and in ensuring existing proposals are matured towa
49、rds FID.The total investment gap stands at USD 380 billion until 2030 to be on a net-zero trajectory by then,assuming all announced project proposals of USD 320 billion are deployed until then.The largest gap is within hydrogen infrastructure and end use at about USD 135 billion each,about two-third
50、s of needed investments,followed by supply(USD 110 billion).The investment gap(about 30%)in clean hydrogen supply is lower than the gap in announced hydrogen volumes(about 50%of the needed 75 Mt p.a.in 2030),likely driven by relatively less announced investments in low-carbon hydrogen that require l
51、ess capital per Mt p.a.capacity.The investment gap is notably higher when considering investments at FID or beyond at more than 95%across the value chain,as only USD 29 billion of the needed USD 700 billion is committed capital.Not all projects,even in advanced planning stages,will reach FID and be
52、built.For instance,in early renewable energy project development,the typical success rate of a project funnel was about 10%to 20%from initial development to commissioning.7 The implication is that the industry needs to develop significantly more project proposals to enable the needed deployment.If i
53、nvestments of USD 700 billion are to be deployed until 2030,they likely need to pass FID before 2027 or 2028,given the time needed to build the projects.7 The funnel success rate will have varied by developer,and the estimated figures are a result of interviews with industry expertsinvestment gap in
54、 supply$110 Binvestment gap in infrastructure$135 Binvestment gap in end use applications$135 BAnnounced and required direct investments into hydrogen until 2030,$BSource:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,2023,McKinseyEnd use and offtakeInfrastructureAnnounced direct investmentsInvestment gapT
55、otal need in line with a net-zero trajectoryProduction and supply70038032012Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&Company02Clean hydrogen deployment steadily continues800 kt p.a.operational clean hydrogen supply capacity today,less than 1%of the gray hydrogen market today700 MW electro
56、lysis capacity deployed by the end of 2022,with about 9 GW having passed FID globally1,070 hydrogen refueling stations deployed globally,with more than 50%growth year-on-year13Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 8Deployment is steadily growing across the value chain;ho
57、wever,acceleration is needed to be on track to net zero Supply:About 800 kt p.a.clean hydrogen supply is operational globally,up from about 700 kt p.a.About 740 kt p.a.are low-carbon hydrogen(primarily in North America),and the remainder is renewable.In addition to this volume,about 2 Mt p.a.has pas
58、sed FID,of which more than half is low-carbon hydrogen.Infrastructure:Infrastructure deployment is progressing and is critical to ensuring(low-cost)clean hydrogen supply matches the demand.Committed investments in hydrogen infrastructure have grown from about USD 5 billion to about USD 7 billion,of
59、which more than three-quarters are in Asia.Hydrogen end use:Committed investments into hydrogen end uses increased by about USD 0.5 billion,with the most growth in North America.Within mobility,cumulative FCEV sales now stand at about 80,000 vehicles,up 30%,representing annual sales of about 17,000
60、vehicles in 2022 less than 1%of global vehicle sales.Vehicle OEMs have announced more than 130 FCEV models expected to be assembled in 2023,of which the majority consists of commercial vehicles(trucks,buses)in China.Manufacturing capacity:Electrolyzers and fuel cell manufacturers are readying for sc
61、aling up.According to OEM statements,growth in electrolyzer manufacturing capacity has reached nearly 9 GW,a growth of 150%.For fuel cell manufacturing,the total global capacity stated by OEMs stands at 12 GW,with Japan and South Korea as the largest supply markets.electrolysis capacity operational
62、2022 EoY,equivalent to 90 kt p.a.H2.300 MW installed in Chinaclean hydrogen capacity has passed FID(incl.0.8 Mt operational),majority of which is in North America700 MW3 Mt p.a.low-carbon hydrogen capacity operational in 2022(EoY),up from 640 kt p.a.in previous publicationelectrolysis capacity at FI
63、D4 GW in China,2 GW in the Middle East,1.5 GW in US and Europe740 kt p.a.9 GWfuel cell vehicles on the road,+30%in 2022ammonia terminals already in place-38 export and 88 import terminals globally80,000120fuel cell mfg.capacity today according to OEMs.+1 GWelectrolysis mfg.capacity according to OEM
64、announcements.+5.3 GW12 GW9 GWhydrogen refueling station deployment:300+in China,200 in South Korea,270 in Europe,160 in Japanfuel cell vehicle models to be assembled by OEMs in 20231,700130SupplyTransmissionManufacturing capacityEnd useSource:Hydrogen Council;McKinsey14Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hyd
65、rogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 9170 MW electrolysis was deployed in 2022,bringing the total to 700 MW,with majority of the capacity added in ChinaDeployment of electrolysis capacity grew 30%by the end of the year in 2022 versus 2021,reaching 700 MW(up from 530 MW).The installed capacity equal
66、s about 90 kt p.a.of renewable hydrogen supply8 or about 10%of installed clean hydrogen production capacity globally.Deployment is lagging:more than 200 GW electrolysis capacity is needed by 2030 to track net zero in 2050 more than 200 times the capacity installed today.The slow deployment may be du
67、e to lacking government support and offtake commitments(i.e.,willingness to pay a green premium),constraints in supply chains,increased cost of deploying projects,EPC capacity,or potentially lengthy permitting processes for projects.Today,the largest deployed capacity is in China(about 300 MW),follo
68、wed by Europe(about 180 MW).Notably,the growth appears to be slower from 2021 to 2022.Growth in 2021 was largely driven by one large project in China,accounting for 150 MW out of the 230 MW growth from 2020 to 2021.The share of alkaline,PEM,and other electrolyzer technologies has been relatively sta
69、ble in the past two years,with alkaline electrolysis technology accounting for about 60%,followed by PEM(about 30%).Within China,the largest market,most of the deployed electrolysis capacity is alkaline technology,whereas the share of PEM technology is higher in Europe and North America.8 Assuming r
70、enewable energy supply,70%load factor,and 67%efficiency(lower heating value)AlkalineTechnologyPEMOther/unknownGlobal cumulative installed electrolysis capacity,MW(EoY)Source:IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2021 and 2022;Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,20231.Growth from 2020 to 2021 driven by 150
71、MW Ningxia Project;the currently largest operational electrolyzer30080180140Rest of worldEuropeChinaNorth America2040300530170015Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 103 Mt p.a.clean hydrogen capacity has passed FID,with North America and China leadingAbout 2
72、.1 Mt p.a.clean hydrogen has passed FID in addition to the 800 kt p.a.operational capacity,of which about 1.1 Mt p.a.is low-carbon hydrogen,and the remaining 1 Mt p.a.is renewable.Since the previous publication,the volumes of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen have grown notably,with about 0.4 Mt p.a
73、.of each technology having passed FID.All low-carbon hydrogen volumes at or past FID are in North America,whereas renewable hydrogen is more geographically dispersed;China is the largest market at 35%share of volumes,followed by the Middle East and North America with about 20%of volumes each.Althoug
74、h being the largest in announced supply,with 13 Mt p.a.announced until 2030,Europe accounts for less than 5%of committed supply capacity.This may be driven by a lack of transparency on regulatory framework and subsidies,as well as high energy prices following the war in Ukraine.Committed1 production
75、 capacity until 2030,%Source:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,20231.Final investment decision has been made,under construction,or operational5%8%17%70%100 MW)already committedMiddle East and AfricaCommitted production capacity driven by giga-scale renewable hydrogen project in Saudi ArabiaEur
76、opeRenewable hydrogen accounts for close to all committed production capacity(95%)in Europe,with industry feedstock sectors(e.g.,refining)driving demandLatin AmericaSignificant project pipeline,but yet to commit to large-scale projects16Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhi
77、bit 11Hydrogen refueling infrastructure deployment is accelerating,particularly in Asian marketsMore than 1,070 hydrogen refueling stations are now operational globally,with deployment growing more than 50%from the end of 2021 to 2022.Most of these stations are located in Asia,i.e.,China,Japan,and S
78、outh Korea as the largest markets(more than 650 in total),followed by Europe(about 280)and North America(about 120).The majority of new stations in the past year have been deployed in China and South Korea,with more than 200 stations added in China and nearly 100 in South Korea.In contrast,deploymen
79、t in Europe and Japan appears to be slowing,with less than 50 new stations deployed in Europe and less than 10 in Japan.Japan has had a relatively good station coverage,with about 160 stations deployed.In Europe,the coverage varies significantly by country(e.g.,Germany has the highest number of stat
80、ions).Currently,most stations deployed are relatively small,with less than 500 kg per day dispensing capacity sufficient to refuel up to 100 passenger vehicles with a 5 kg capacity tank.In the future,deployment needs to accelerate overall,and stations need to be larger to enable growth in the deploy
81、ment of large commercial vehicles,such as heavy-duty trucks that could need more than 50 kg of hydrogen per refueling or ten times more than a car.Europe and Middle EastAsia-PacificAmericaCosta Rica1USACanadaIcelandUnited KingdomLatviaNorwaySwedenItalySpainFranceAustriaGermanyBelgiumCzechRepublicSwi
82、tzerlandCroatiaNetherlandsDenmarkMalaysiaSaudi ArabiaChinaIndiaTaiwanAustraliaSouth KoreaJapan458880300567371125Total number of HRS in operationSource:h2stations.org,as of stations in Asia-Pacific650stations in America116stations in Europe and Middle East276690 2020 2021 202254
83、51,070+55%+25%17Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&Company03Hydrogen in North America:Industry tailwinds and what it could take to realize the opportunityUSD 46 billion investment announced in hydrogen projects by 2030Up to USD 3/kg H2 incentives for clean hydrogen production18Hydro
84、gen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 12North America has high-quality energy resources for clean hydrogen productionThe US and Canada combined are the second-largest consumers of hydrogen in the world,with 15 Mt p.a.demand today,accounting for approximately 17%of total globa
85、l hydrogen demand.Todays hydrogen demand in North America is driven almost entirely by the chemical and refining industries,all of which are met by gray hydrogen.However,abundant wind and solar,along with low-cost natural gas and sequestration resources,position North America as a region with high p
86、otential to produce both renewable and low-carbon hydrogen at low cost.With these resources,North America could be a major region for clean hydrogen,with sizeable domestic demand and the potential to export hydrogen.Potential implications for 20509 are as follows:North America is expected to be amon
87、g the top regions globally for hydrogen production,achieving average renewable hydrogen production costs of USD 1.1 per kg.20%of energy demand in North America could be provided by hydrogen,more than half of which could be used in sectors such as road transportation,synthetic fuel production,and che
88、micals.20%of global hydrogen could be produced in North America almost all pure hydrogen produced in the US could be consumed locally;however,hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol could be exported globally.With both sequestration resources and abundant renewables,the North American hydr
89、ogen supply mix is expected to be roughly a 50:50 split between renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production.9 Based on Global Hydrogen Flows perspective from October 2022,updated to incorporate the impact of the IRASource:McKinsey Hydrogen Insights and Power Solutions;Energy Insights Global Emissio
90、n and Subsurface Database;McKinsey CCS Hub Explorer Tool;EPA FLIGHTtotal consumption of gray H2Current gray H2 demand locationTotal H2 consumption in the area,Mt p.a.15 Mt p.a.of H2 is consumed by refineries60%of total global H2 demand17%3.59.50.61.2Solar and wind resources for renewable hydrogenNat
91、ural gas and carbon sequestration resources for low-carbon hydrogenBoth19Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyClean hydrogen momentum in North America continues,with 170 clean hydrogen projects announced across the continentThe industry has announced a total of 170 hydrogen pro
92、jects in North America as of the end of January 2023,accounting for approximately 15%of total announced projects globally.In the past eight months,about 70 new projects were announced.Of the 170 total projects,135 aim to be fully or partially commissioned by 2030,representing USD 46 billion of annou
93、nced direct investment in hydrogen value chains.Of the 135 projects proposed by 2030,more than 40%have reached a final investment decision(FID),are under construction,or are operational,and 25%are undergoing feasibility and FEED studies.The number of announced projects through 2030 has grown by 60%i
94、n the past eight months,while the share of projects at each level of project maturity has stayed consistent,indicating an even distribution of growth across the project funnel.Large-scale projects for industrial offtakers account for more than half of the announced projects.Out of 106 large-scale in
95、dustrial projects announced,86 are planning full or partial commissioning by 2030 19 projects are undergoing feasibility or FEED studies,and 35 projects have passed FID.There are eight giga-scale projects announced.Of these eight,five are undergoing feasibility and FEED studies and one is at the FID
96、 stage.Three out of eight giga-scale projects are on renewable hydrogen supply with intended use in sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)or for the transportation sector.Out of a total of 175 announced projects,134 projects have disclosed their intended offtake sector.Road transport is the offtaker for 40
97、projects,followed by ammonia(34 projects),and power/blending into gas grid(25 projects).Exhibit 13of total announced projects globallyGiga-scaleproductionIndustry(e.g.,refining,steel)TransportIntegrated H2 economyInfrastructure projects16%investment required to develop projects announced until 2030$
98、46 Bannounced projects511Announced H2 projects in North AmericaNumber of projects announcedSource:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,202320Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyMore than half of announced investments in North America are still in early stagesAnno
99、unced hydrogen projects in North America through 2030 amount to total direct investments of USD 46 billion,up from USD 29 billion in the previous publication.Along the value chain,most investments are focused on clean hydrogen supply,accounting for more than three-quarters of investments,followed by
100、 end use(about 15%)and infrastructure(about 5%).The investment gap in midstream and end use has increased after the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)as the incentives focus on hydrogen production.Committed investments(projects already at FID or beyond)account for 20%of investments in North America compar
101、ed to only 7%for the rest of the world.This could be due to the fact that almost three-quarters of North American projects are low-carbon projects,compared to 20%across the rest of the world.The value chain for low-carbon hydrogen production is more mature than for renewables,and the projects tend t
102、o be larger.Additionally,the deployment process is faster when retrofitting existing steam methane reforming(SMR)facilities.The past eight months have seen an increase of more than 50%in total announced investments.Almost half of the investments in North America are considered mature(either in the p
103、lanning stage or already committed),having grown by about 20%in the past eight months to USD 20 billion.Estimated investments in projects in an early announcement stage(i.e.,before the detailed planning and engineering stage)have more than doubled,from USD 12 billion to USD 25 billion.This is likely
104、 driven by the passage of the IRA in August 2022,spurring new announcements that are still in relatively early stages.As momentum around project announcements accelerates,challenges to deploying at scale remain for and in some cases are exacerbated by the rapidly growing hydrogen industry.Key potent
105、ial challenges will be explored in the coming pages.Exhibit 14investment growth in the past 8 months+55%growth in“mature”investments in the past 8 months+20%of investments focus on supply80%981112259North America direct hydrogen investments through 2030,$BSource:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan
106、31,2023MayAnnouncedPlanningCommittedFeasibility or FEED studiesFID,under construction,operationalJan20222023MayJan20222023MayJan20222023$20 Bmature investments$46 Bannounced investmentsEnd use and offtakeInfrastructureProduction and supply21Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&Company
107、Announced renewable hydrogen momentum has accelerated since the passage of the IRA Companies have announced projects that would produce up to 9.3 Mt p.a.of clean hydrogen capacity by 2030 in North America,an increase of about 3.8 Mt over the last eight months.Though more than 70%of the announced cap
108、acity is from low-carbon hydrogen,renewable hydrogen capacity has grown by 2.5 times since May 2022.This could,in part,be due to the IRA production tax credit(PTC),which scales based on the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced,favoring renewable hydrogen production.Since 2021,the total announce
109、d production capacity has grown 1.5 times faster in North America compared to the rest of the world.Further acceleration is expected in the coming years as many developers await the announcement of the IRA implementation regulations before finalizing investment decisions.3.7 Mt p.a.of announced clea
110、n hydrogen production capacity has not yet reached detailed planning stages,whereas 3.6 Mt p.a.is in planning stages undergoing feasibility or FEED studies,and 2 Mt p.a.(about 20%of total announced capacity)has passed FID,is under construction,or operational.North America accounts for 25%of the tota
111、l announced clean hydrogen supply volumes globally,with the highest volume of announced production capacity in Europe(about 13 Mt p.a.).North America accounts for the largest volume of announced low-carbon hydrogen production capacity in the world(about 55%of total low-carbon hydrogen capacity),whil
112、e Europe has the largest volume of announced renewable hydrogen production capacity(8.7 Mt p.a.,accounting for 35%).Exhibit 15Planning2Committed3Announced1North America clean hydrogen production capacity announced by 2030,Mt p.a.Source:Project&Investment tracker,as of Jan 31,20231.Preliminary studie
113、s or at press announcement stage2.Feasibility studies or at FEED stage3.Final investment decision has been made,under construction,commissioned,or operationalshare of announced low-carbon H2 capacity in North America compared to 20%in the rest of the worldRenewableLow-carbonRenewableLow-carbonRenewa
114、bleOctober 2021May 2022January 2023Low-carbon70%announced renewable H2 capacity growth in the past 8 months3.5x1.00.10.11.00.91.20.40.20.11.61.92.51.11.10.21.82.50.322Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyThe IRA could help significantly accelerate clean hydrogen in the USThe IR
115、A was signed into law in August 2022,with the goal of lowering US carbon emissions by the end of this decade.Over USD 400 billion of funding in climate spending has been budgeted toward the energy industry,environmental justice,cleantech manufacturing,land and agriculture,and transportation,with the
116、 energy industry receiving the biggest share.The IRA is expected to have broad and significant impacts on existing energy transition sectors such as renewables,batteries,and existing nuclear power,as well as on earlier-stage sectors such as carbon capture,clean hydrogen,and other low-carbon fuels(e.
117、g.,SAF).Hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives could benefit from the IRA through a mix of incentives such as the extension and expansion of solar and wind power incentives,the introduction of a tax credit for hydrogen production,the expansion of tax credits for carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCU
118、S),and incentives for SAF and other clean fuels.As of the time of publication,many key details on how the legislation will be implemented have not yet been released from the IRS.The IRA hydrogen production tax credit is calculated based on the carbon intensity of the hydrogen.To capture the full USD
119、 3 per kg credit,the carbon intensity of produced hydrogen must be lower than 0.45 tons of CO2 per ton of hydrogen.Renewable hydrogen powered by renewable power can get the full USD 3.0 per kg;low-carbon hydrogen would require carbon sequestration to below 4 tons of CO2 per ton of hydrogen to receiv
120、e the minimum credit of USD 0.6 per kg with variation based on upstream emissions.Renewable hydrogen could benefit from the IRAs renewable PTC in addition to the hydrogen PTC.Low-carbon hydrogen could instead benefit from expanded 45Q incentives for CCUS;however,the 45V hydrogen PTC and 45Q are not
121、stackable,i.e.,a low-carbon hydrogen project cannot receive both.Exhibit 16Key IRA provisions for hydrogen and hydrogen derivativesDetails of the hydrogen PTC1,2 Hydrogen PTC/45V:Low-carbon hydrogen cannot be eligible for both carbon capture 45Q credit and hydrogen 45V up to$3/kg H2Disclaimer:Intend
122、ed to provide insight based on currently available information for consideration and not specific adviceWho will qualify?Projects that emit 4 tCO2/tH2(with max$3/kg credit available to facilities 0.45 tCO2/tH2)Projects that are based in the US Greenfield projects put into service before 2033 Facilit
123、ies that do not claim 45Q or clean fuel tax creditsWhat questions remain?Can producers power with grid electricity with RECs to reduce CI?What is CI calculation methodology and validation process?Are there further details on rules related to prevailing wage rate and apprenticeship requirements?Can C
124、CUS and clean fuels credits at separate facilities be stacked(e.g.,can H2 Co.sell to SAF Co.and each claim H2 and SAF credits,respectively)?How will credits work?Based on the full lifecycle,GHG emissions calculated with GREET model3 Eligible for 10 years from the COD date,with 5 years of direct pay,
125、5 years of tax credits Can be stacked with renewable PTC No cap on the credit programCCUS 45Q credit4:DAC:Point source:utilized-sequestered$130-180/tCO2$60-85/tCO2Clean fuels:up to$1/gal baseup to$1.75/gal for SAFRenewable PTC2:$26/MWhSource:US Inflation Reduction Act of 20221.DoE has up to 1 year t
126、o establish final rule making2.Projects that do not pay prevailing wage and apprenticeship lose 80%of credit value3.0.45 tCO2/tH2=$3/kg;0.45 1.5=$1/kg;1.5 2.5=$0.75/kg;2.5 4=$0.6/kg4.Low-carbon hydrogen can receive the 45Q credit regardless of carbon intensity of the hydrogen23Hydrogen Insights May
127、2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyWith the IRA,renewable hydrogen could become cost competitive soonerThe IRA will improve renewable and low-carbon hydrogen economics in the coming years.The IRAs hydrogen production tax credit of up to USD 3 per kg hydrogen for the first ten years of a projects o
128、perations reduces the levelized cost of hydrogen for clean hydrogen by USD 0.5 to 1.8 per kg in the US over the lifetime of the project.The renewable PTC could potentially decrease the cost further by up to USD 0.80 per kg of hydrogen.As the market is rapidly evolving,these numbers are likely to shi
129、ft quickly in the coming years.Many factors that vary by project will impact LCOH.For example,exact value capture is likely situationally dependent based on value chain control points.For example,if electrolyzer demand from announced projects outstrips manufacturing capacity,there would be a shortag
130、e of electrolyzers allowing OEMs to extract higher margins,which would drive up the cost of hydrogen as produced.Retrofitting existing SMR plants with carbon capture and sequestration could make low-carbon hydrogen cost competitive with gray hydrogen today.Many low-carbon hydrogen producers are purs
131、uing the 45Q,as opposed to 45V,to capture value from IRA incentives as they await clarity on how carbon emissions will be calculated for the 45V PTC.IRA incentives could make clean hydrogen economic for many offtakers five to ten years earlier:Heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell trucks could reach breakev
132、en with new diesel vehicles in the next several years.Conventional hydrogen uses today(e.g.,ammonia production,refineries)could become competitive within coming years in most parts of the country.If IRA credits can be combined(hydrogen PTC,carbon credits,and clean fuels credits),the IRA could help t
133、he US government on its path towards achieving a target of 3 billion gallons of SAF equivalent to 10%of the USs jet fuel consumption.However,beyond the pure economics,many end users continue to face challenges that prevent them from transitioning to clean hydrogen such as a lack of midstream infrast
134、ructure for cost-effective hydrogen delivery and the need to shift their operations for example,for hydrogen trucking.Depending on how the provisions are implemented,the IRAs 45V,45D(renewable),and 45Q incentives could make the US among the most competitive production region for clean hydrogen.Globa
135、l hydrogen trade dynamics could be significantly altered,though this will depend on evolving policy.Other countries are likely to pass policies in response to the IRA.Canada has instituted policies that could accelerate Canadas competitiveness as a hydrogen-producing region,including an investment t
136、ax credit(ITC)of 15%to 40%for hydrogen production varying based on the hydrogens carbon intensity,a CCUS ITC of 50%applicable to CCS equipment and cleantech ITC of 30%for clean electricity generation systems(e.g.,solar,hydro,nuclear,and wind).The majority of these credits begin to be phased out by 2
137、035.These incentives would complement Canadas existing carbon pricing and credit systems.Exhibit 17Source:US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022;Canada,Budget 202324Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 182022Total renewable deployed today304020502022242620282309001,7002,900
138、1.Global hydrogen flow model adjusted based on IRA impact2.Assuming each new factory requires 3 years to reach peak performance for missing production;assuming electrolyzer purchasing happens 2 years ahead of COD3.This electrolyzer capacity is to meet the demand for operational electrolysis 2 years
139、laterAccelerate renewable deploymentScale up electrolyzer manufacturing capacityEstimated required renewables deployment in US,1 GW US electrolyzer manufacturing capacity2GW/yearRenewables for H2 productionAdditional production capacity likely required to meet 2030 renewable H2 demand for net zero 2
140、0501Publicly announced capacityRenewables for net zero,excluding renewables needed for H2SupplyStandardize and accelerate permitting processes,e.g.,for renewables,class VI wells,electrolyzersDevelop industry standards,e.g.,hydrogen safety standard and transfer protocolsCreate a finan-cing blueprintR
141、etain and reskill workforce To enable infrastructure scale-up:150300650Cumulative US electrolyzer to be procured,3 GW525Significant production scale-up is required to bring the cost down and enable the shift to clean hydrogen productionDespite regulatory momentum,producing clean hydrogen
142、is more expensive today than it was two years ago in the US,which is potentially driven by an increase in national average PPA(power purchase agreements)prices from USD 27 per MWh in 2020 to USD 45 per MWh in 2022,EPC capacity shortages and increasing labor costs by up to 20%,as well as a two-to fou
143、rfold increase in gas price.For costs to decrease in the coming years and a sustainable,competitive clean hydrogen ecosystem to develop,further value chain scale-up is required.Renewable hydrogen is projected to account for about one-third of the total hydrogen production in the US by 2030 and incre
144、ase to half of the production by 2050.10 Enabling this would require a significant liftoff on both renewable deployment and electrolyzer manufacturing capacity,among others:Meeting the US goal of a net-zero grid by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050 is estimated to require reaching 900 GW of renewa
145、bles in 2030 which is only achievable at four times the current renewable installation rate.Potential challenges for scaling the renewable industry would prevail,with or without hydrogen,since the renewable capacity required for hydrogen production accounts for 15%to 20%of total renewables needed in
146、 2030 and 2050,respectively.Nevertheless,hydrogen producers can strategically plan for their renewable power.For example,they could benefit from co-locating with renewable projects struggling to connect to the electricity grid making use of otherwise stranded renewables.Also,large hydrogen producers
147、 can unlock scale benefits,potentially via partnerships with renewable producers,to secure volumes.Total electrolyzer manufacturing capacity announced in the US in 2028 is 8 GW across 10 From Global Hydrogen Flows perspective from October 2022,updated to incorporate the impact of the IRA5 OEMs.To me
148、et the required renewable hydrogen demand for net zero in 2030,14 GW of additional electrolyzer production capacity is estimated to be required by 2028.The gap between the demand and announced capacity has led to a short-term supply shortage while the manufacturing capacity scales up.Since the IRA c
149、urrently does not require domestically manufactured electrolyzers,part of electrolyzer demand will likely be imported.However,a global electrolyzer shortage is not unlikely if renewable hydrogen projects accelerate.Increasing electrolysis capacity necessitates scale-up of electrolyzer manufacturing,
150、maturity of supply chains,and development and enforcement of industry standards for hydrogen safety and transportation.In addition,enabling production scale-up likely requires:1.A skilled workforce for manufacturing and EPCs that can install electrolyzers,renewables,and low-carbon hydrogen productio
151、n equipment(e.g.,CCUS).Workforce development could be accelerated by targeted training programs and facilitating job transitions from adjacent industries (e.g.,from fossil-fuel-based sectors).2.Standardization and acceleration of permitting processes,e.g.,for renewables,electrolyzers,class VI wells
152、for CO2 injections,facility retrofits/modifications,and pipelines.Today,permitting process can take multiple years.Adequate dedicated staff for handling permit requests and guiding the permit processes,as well as standardization of processes across agencies and jurisdictions could help decrease the
153、process time.3.A financial blueprint for investors could decrease risk and accelerate deployment.This could include education for investors and lenders on hydrogen project economics,risks,regulations,and offtake dynamics,as well as financial models for hydrogen projects ideally supported by assumpti
154、ons and proof points from deployed hydrogen projects.25Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyExhibit 19Midstream infrastructure to transport hydrogen does not exist at scale todayLarge-scale,cost-effective transport of hydrogen could require a hydrogen pipeline network complemen
155、ted by trucking-based transport for distributed end uses(e.g.,hydrogen refueling stations).With only 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines in place today,the US hydrogen industry would rely on truck-based delivery despite higher unit costs for new uses outside of industrial clusters where hydrogen pipel
156、ines currently exist.Trucking could add more than USD 1 per kg to the cost of delivered hydrogen compared to pipeline delivery(cost range will vary based on distance,capacity,equipment utilization,and hydrogen form,e.g.,gaseous versus liquid).Projections show 60%of US hydrogen production will flow t
157、hrough pipelines in 2050.11 However,there are only 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines in the US today(primarily concentrated in major industrial clusters in the Gulf Coast and California)in contrast to 500,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines to move natural gas from producing regions to d
158、emand centers across the country.Building the long-term network to connect potential hydrogen clusters with approximately ten north-south pipelines and five east-west pipelines could require an estimated USD 100 billion.Investments of only USD 3 billion in hydrogen infrastructure projects until 2030
159、 have been announced in North America so far.A rapid ramp-up is needed to enable a pipeline network.Pipelines to distribute hydrogen could be developed from:1.Retrofitting the existing natural gas 11 From Global Hydrogen Flows reportpipeline,which could require both infrastructure upgrades to enable
160、 the existing natural gas pipeline to accommodate hydrogen molecules,and the phasing out of existing natural gas transport in order to use the pipelines for hydrogen.The US unlike Europe does not have many places with parallel natural gas pipelines running the same routes,making pipeline retrofits a
161、 less viable option for most of the US as compared to Europe.2.Building new pipelines may be more feasible than retrofits in the US.However,new pipelines face their own potential challenges primarily permitting.Interstate pipelines complicate the process of obtaining rights of way,making permitting
162、a multi-year process.In the meantime,producers are developing alternatives such as co-location of end uses and production facilities and trucking for hydrogen distribution,particularly to smaller end uses like refueling stations and small industrials:Producers,offtakers,and transporters can coordina
163、te to aggregate and connect regional supply and demand.The US Department of Energys hydrogen hub funding is mobilizing these efforts across the country.Adding twin pipelines to existing natural gas pipelines could accelerate the process in some cases by utilizing existing pipelines right of way.Inte
164、ragency and interjurisdiction coordination to streamline the permitting process and create consistency across regions could help to reduce timelines.Source:National Renewable Energy Laboratory;Energy Information AdministrationInfraH2 production unitH2 pipelineNatural gas pipelinemiles of existing tr
165、ansmission natural gas pipelines500,000miles of existing H2 pipelines1,600Aggregate regional demandRetrofit natural gas pipelinesAdd twin lines to existing natural gas pipelinesStreamline permittingTo help enable infrastructure scale-up:26Hydrogen Insights May 2023Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&CompanyTh
166、e IRA helps kickstart the US hydrogen ecosystem,however,demand uptake is likely needed for a sustainable ecosystem beyond IRASecuring committed offtake at scale is essential for a sustainable hydrogen ecosystem.Today,investments in production outpace offtake,and many offtakers are hesitant to sign l
167、ong-term contracts.In part,this is because costs could still be a potential challenge once the IRA sunsets after 2032.Despite continued technology innovation,scale-up,and maturity of manufacturing and supply chains,without the IRA incentives,renewable hydrogen is still expected to be more expensive
168、than gray hydrogen.In addition,offtakers hesitate to commit to clean hydrogen contracts without certainty of reliable,long-term supply.To accelerate demand uptake,the industry likely needs mechanisms that give offtakers certainty about the availability and affordability of clean hydrogen over time.F
169、or example,contracts could mitigate risks for offtakers,and policies could support a liquid market to help create certainty for both suppliers and offtakers.An example of this is H2Global in Germany a support scheme created by the government to support producers and offtakers by bridging the differe
170、nce between the cost of clean production and the market price with public funding.Though the cost for clean hydrogen would not be competitive with gray,to stay on track for the USs decarbonization goals,a shift toward clean hydrogen and its derivatives is likely needed.Codes,standards,and regulation
171、s that require emissions reductions and incentives that reward lower carbon intensity products and services could create long-term demand for clean hydrogen.With lower cost achieved for renewable hydrogen in the next ten years,stemming from the scale-up and maturity of manufacturing and supply chain
172、s,clean hydrogen could become a viable decarbonization option for many sectors.Exhibit 20End useMotivate decarbonization potentially with regulations,standards,or incentivesFacilitate certainty of available and affordable supplyTo help accelerate demand:Source:Bundesministerium fr Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz