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1、05 April 2023Allianz ResearchPhoto by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplashindustrial revolution The green Investment pathways to decarbonize the industrial sector in Europe 12Cement industry and other non-metallic minerals08The options for the net-zero race 04The starting point15Chemicals18Iron,steel and alumin
2、um 21Aluminum industry and other non-ferrous metals 24Foundries27Pulp and paper 30Food,drink and tobacco Allianz Research The industrial sector is responsible for roughly one quarter of global greenhouse-gas(GHG)emissions.A mix of measures,including energy-efficiency improvements,using hydrogen and
3、biomass as feedstock or fuel,producing heat through electric means and adopting carbon-capture technologies,can reduce the sectors carbon dioxide emissions to almost zero.To decarbonize the industry sector globally will require cumulative investments of EUR2.7trn until 2050.Of this,the EU needs 8%or
4、 EUR210bn,and half of this for electrification investments alone.The rest is almost equally split between hydrogen use,innovative production processes and new technologies.Additionally,at EUR330bn until 2050,the EU industrys total investment needs for carbon capture and storage(CCS)are almost 60%hig
5、her than the investments in all other industry decarbonization measures combined.To meet these needs,the EU28 countries need to invest EUR3bn per year between 2020 and 2030,and EUR9bn annually from 2030 to 2050,when technologies will be ready for full-scale deployment.The pulp&paper industry require
6、s the largest overall investments EUR 78.4bn until 2050 followed by iron&steel(EUR55.4bn)and cement(EUR37.6bn).These investments would cut emissions by 265 MtCO2(-92%),which yields an average abatement investment of EUR790 per tCO2.In this context,governments should use the instruments at their disp
7、osal(e.g.subsidies,carbon taxes)to effectively align sector pathways with overarching net-zero transition goals.2SummaryExecutiveMarkus ZimmerSenior Economist ESGArne HolzhausenHead of Insurance,Wealth and Trend RPatrick HoffmannResearch FellowAnand PamarResearch AStefan LandauResearch A05 April 202
8、33Figure 1:Investment needs in the industry sector to achieve net-zero emissions in the EU28Sources:IndustryPLAN,Allianz Research.Note:BAT refers to best available technologies.Includes EU+UK.See Appendix for decomposition of investments by country.What does it take to limit global warming to 1.5C?C
9、heck out our five sector pathways already published:The great green renovation:buildings sector transition pathwayA Carbon farming:A transition path for agriculture&forestryThe EU utility transition:A pathway powered by solar and windJostle the colossal fossil:A path to the energy sector transitionT
10、ransport in a zero carbon EU:Pathways and opportunities020406080050Billlion EUROthersPaper and pulpNon-metallic mineralsNon-ferrous metalsIron and steelFoundriesChemicalsAllianz ResearchOver the past few decades,the industry sector has made significant progress towards reducing its emissi
11、ons and improving energy efficiency.By 2010,European industry alone had reduced its emissions by-29%,and by-39%by 2020 compared to 1990 levels.Despite intense international competition,European industry has managed to adjust its business practices and models to align with the continents climate and
12、energy goals,all while maintaining a viable economic approach.4The starting pointNonetheless,the sector is still responsible for 650Mt of CO2 emissions with CO2 accounting for over 90%of direct GHG emissions from industry in 2020.The cement,iron and steel and chemicals sectors(see Figure 2)are the l
13、argest contributors to CO2 emissions and industrial energy consumption:The three sectors generated three-quarters of industrial emissions in the EU-28 in 2020.Photo by Sol on Unsplash EEA(2021).Data viewer on greenhouse gas emissions and removals05 April 20235Sources:Eurostat,Allianz Research(exclud
14、ing emissions from refineries).Figure 2:EU-28 industrial CO2 emissions in 2020Iron&steel22%Aluminum,non-ferrous metals2%Chemicals22%Pulp,paper5%Food,beverages,tobacco9%Cement&non-metallic minerals28%Textiles1%Basic pharmaceuticals1%Rubber&plastic products2%Fabricated metal2%Electrical equipment,elec
15、tronics,optics1%Other machinery&equipment1%Motor vehicles2%Other manufacturing2%Other12%To add to this,all three sectors also produce sizeable process emissions,ranging from 25%to 50%(see Figure 3).This matters because industrial process emissions are particularly hard to abate.As a consequence,even
16、 in the net-zero transition scenario,only three-quarters of these emissions are expected to be avoided in the EU.In contrast,other industrial sectors such as food and tobacco;paper,pulp,and print and nonferrous metals,generate mainly indirect and direct emissions(Figure 3),with the former resulting
17、mostly from centrally produced electricity and the latter mostly from heat generation.These are more or less“automatically”reduced by decarbonizing energy and heat generation.For example,nearly 55%of CO2 emissions in these sectors result from the use of centrally produced electricity,primarily from
18、natural gas and coal for low-and medium-temperature heat demand.Allianz Research6Figure 3:Global CO2 emissions in different industries by emission source(in GtCo2/yr)Figure 4 illustrates the gargantuan task of bringing the industry in line with the net-zero path:By 2050,emissions must be reduced by
19、92%,with some sectors even generating negative emissions,i.e.capturing more CO2 emissions than they produce.The figure compares the Network for Greening the Financial System(NGFS)projections with the European Commission(EC)assessment for the EU Green Deal.The two sources use different definitions fo
20、r the boundaries of the sectors shown,as well as for the allocation of process emissions and energy emissions.As a result,the sectoral emissions differ and the NGFS baseline is slightly higher since the Other Industries category is broader.The trend for following a 1.5C path is similar in both asses
21、sments and net emissions in 2050 are comparable as well,though NGFS explicitly reports negative emissions.Figure 5 shows the development of the final energy use in the industrial sectors in different scenarios.While the relative composition between industries is not expected to change dramatically,c
22、ement,steel and chemicals are expected to have lower energy-saving potential than the other industries.By 2050,final energy demand in the Current Policies scenario is expected to increase by+14%relative to the 2020 baseline,while it is projec-ted to decrease by-35%in the Net Zero 2050 scenario.2.90.
23、10.10.30.10.10.11.11.30.30.30.50.83.620.90.7Cement,other non-metallicmineralsIron andsteelChemicalsOtherindustries(incl.con-struction)GtCO2 per yearProcess emissionsIndirect,machine driveand other emissionsHigh-temperature heat(500C)Medium-temperatureheat(100-500C)Low-temperature heat(Carbon capture
24、 and utilization/storage at cement plants(36%;1370 Mt CO2)-Efficiency in design and constructions(22%;840 Mt CO2):Client brief to designers to enable optimization Design optimization Construction site efficiencies Re-use and lifetime extension-Efficiency in concrete production(11%,430Mt CO2):Optimiz
25、ed mix design Optimization of constituents Continue to industrialize manufacturing Quality control-Savings in cement and binders(9%;350 Mt CO2):80%of concretes carbon footprint comes from cement Portland clinker cement substitution Alternatives to Portland clinker cements(use industrial byproducts s
26、uch as iron slag and coal fly ash)-CO2 sink:recarbonation(6%;240 Mt CO2):Natural uptake of CO2 in concrete=a carbon sink Savings in energy emissions-Decarbonization of electricity(5%;190Mt CO2):Decarbonization of electricity used at both cement plants and in concrete production-Savings in clinker pr
27、oduction(11%410 Mt CO2):Thermal efficiency Savings from waste fuels(“alternative fuels”)Use of decarbonated raw materials Use of hydrogen as fuel05 April 202337Fleiter et al.(2019)(EC&DG Climate Action(2020).Industrial Innovation:Pathways to deep decarbonisation of Industry)quantify the emission red
28、uction potentials in the EU for various industries in differing decarbonization scenarios.A partial implementation and combination of these measures can achieve an efficient decarbonization.IndustryPLAN as a tool can analyze partial implementations and combinations of measures and evaluate them vers
29、us their emission reductions and costs.Cement potential:A more ambitious switch to low-carbon fuels such as biomass and maximum improvements in energy efficiency result in a-16%reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to 2015.A large-scale implementation of CCS can achieve a reduction of-81%.The use
30、of synthetic methane and low-carbon cement types that replace Portland cement allows for a reduction of about-50%by 2050,but significant process emissions remain due to the continued use of low-carbon cement types that emit CO2.A-62%reduction is possible by using biomass as the primary energy source
31、 and introducing material efficiency and recycling improvements in the construction industry,resulting in lower cement demand and production-related emissions.An ambitious switch to electricity combined with low-carbon cement types could result in a-45%reduction in emissions.A mix of measures that i
32、nvolves the use of electric furnaces for glass melting,low-carbon cements and material efficiency and recycling improvements,could result in a-56%reduction.If that mix is complemented by using synthetic methane in the gas grid and CCS for remaining conventional clinker and lime furnaces,this would r
33、esult in an-86%reduction by 2050.Across all scenarios,the cement and lime production industries pose significant challenges to decarbonization,with low-carbon cement diffusion and material efficiency and recycling improvements in the construction industry being critical factors in reducing emissions
34、.Chemicals potential:The application of the best available technologies(BAT)in the chemical industry can achieve a-15%emission reduction by 2050 through energy efficiency improvements and increased biomass use.Employing innovative strategies can lower emissions further.The use of carbon capture and
35、storage(CCS)in all major processes can achieve a-90%reduction in emissions,including the negative emissions from biomass.The large-scale use of synthetic methane and a switch to hydrogen-based processes in ethylene and methanol production can reduce emissions up to-77%.A comprehensive deployment of
36、biomass and ambitious improvements in material efficiency and circular economy,resulting in lower demand for energy-intensive products and can reduced emissions by-63%.Emission cuts of about-70%can be achieved by using hydrogen-based processes in combination with switching to the direct use of elect
37、ricity for process heat generation.The challenges for decarbonizing the chemical industry are feedstocks,process emissions and the high share of natural gas,but hydrogen may play a key role in the industrys decarbonization.Iron and steel potential:Implementing the best available technologies in the
38、iron and steel industry could already result in a-51%reduction in emissions.This reduction is primarily due to the shift from oxygen steel to electric steel,accounting for 67%of total crude steel production in 2050.Replacing 88%of the oxygen steel production route with direct reduction based on hydr
39、ogen(DR H2+EAF)reduces emissions up to-88%.Replacing oxygen steel by electrolysis steel is assumed to be available after 2030.A reduction of-69%can then be achieved with increasing material efficiency and the innovative use of electric steel for high-quality products,increasing the share of electric
40、 steel to 77%in total crude steel production by 2050.Further replacing oxygen steel with alternative routes and additionally using synthetic methane to replace the remaining natural gas use achieves a reduction of-96%.Ultimately,the decarbonization of the iron and steel industry largely depends on t
41、he quick adoption of innovative CO2-free steel production routes that utilize either hydrogen or electricity.Furthermore,the implementation of scrap-based steel production,taking advantage of the expected future increase in scrap availability,has enormous potential for mitigation.Pulp and paper pote
42、ntial:For the pulp and paper industry,the strict application of best available technology could achieve a-11%reduction by 2050 compared to 1990 by leveraging energy-efficiency improvements.By adopting carbon capture and storage(CCS)technology,the industry could achieve nearly-100%GHG emissions reduc
43、tion,even if only about half of the paper mills combine bioenergy with CO2 capture installations(BECCS).This high rate of reduction is attributed to the capture of CO2 emissions from biomass results in negative emissions.Other measures include using electric steam boilers,replacing natural gas with
44、synthetic methane,and phasing out coal-fired boilers and steam engines before their end-of-life after 2040.Given sufficient carbon prices,decarbonization through biomass and electricity usage could provide an additional business model for paper mills have access to carbon storage sites and are equip
45、ped with CCS:they have the potential to generate negative emissions through BECCS,which could compensate for process-related emissions in other industries.Appendix:Industry emission-reduction potentialAllianz Research38IEA(2022A).Electrification,IEA,Paris.Available at:https:/www.iea.org/reports/elec
46、trification IEA(2022B).Pulp and Paper,IEA,Paris.Available at:https:/www.iea.org/reports/pulp-and-paper IPCC(2022A).IPCC Report,AR6 Working Group 3 Chapter 11(2022).https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter11.pdf MPP(2022A).Steel,MPP(September 2022).Explorer:https:/das
47、h-mpp.plotly.host/mpp-steel-net-zero-explorer/global_regional_lens.Model:https:/ MPP(2022B).Aluminium,MPP(September 2022).Explorer:https:/dash-mpp.plotly.host/aluminium-net-zero-explorer/.Report:https:/missionpossiblepartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Making-1.5-Aligned-Aluminium-possible.pd
48、f.Model:https:/ MPP(2022C).Ammonia,MPP(September 2022).Explorer:https:/dash-mpp.plotly.host/mpp-ammonia-net-zero-explorer/.Report:https:/missionpossiblepartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Making-1.5-Aligned-Ammonia-possible.pdf Johannsen,R.M.(Ophavsperson),Mathiesen,B.V.(Ophavsperson)(14 feb.
49、2023).IndustryPLAN.VBN.IndustryPLAN_V1(.xlsm).10.5278/5fbe12d0-ab4b-4b13-8b33-5c82b527d294Johannsen,R.M.,Mathiesen,B.V.,Kermeli,K.,Crijns Graus,W.,&stergaard,P.A.(2023).Exploring pathways to 100%renewable energy in European industry.Energy,268,126687.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.126687Materi
50、al Economics(2019).Industrial Transformation 2050-Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry.https:/ European Commission.EU Reference Scenario 2020.Available at:EU Reference Scenario 2020(europa.eu)IEA(2014).Application of Industrial Heat Pumps.Available at:annex-xiii-part-a.pdf(iea-indus
51、try.org)ETC(2022).Carbon Capture,Utilisation and Storage in the Energy Transition:Vital but Limited.Available at:energy-transition.orgReferences:05 April 202339ALLIANZ RESEARCHteamOurAllianz Research40Chief Economist Allianz SELudovic SAna Boataana.boataallianz-Andreas JArne HHead of Economic Resear
52、ch Allianz TradeHead of Insurance,Wealth&Trend ResearchAllianz SEHead of Macroeconomic&Capital Markets ResearchAllianz SE Franoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huangallianz-Manfred StamerSenior Economist for Middle East&Emerging Europemanfred.stamerallianz-Luca MonetaSenior Econom
53、ist for Africa&Middle Eastluca.monetaallianz-Macroeconomic ResearchMaxime LemerleLead Advisor,Insolvency Research maxime.lemerleallianz-Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathanallianz-Aurlien DuthoitSenior Sector Advisor,B2C aurelien.duthoitallianz-Corporate ResearchMichaela GrimmSenio
54、r Economist,Demography&Social PKathrin StoffelEconomist,Insurance&WPatricia Pelayo-RomeroEconomist,Insurance&ESGpatricia.pelayo-Insurance,Wealth and Trends ResearchEric BarthalonHead of Capital Markets RPablo Espinosa UrielInvestment Strategist,Emerging Markets&Alternative Assetspablo.espinosa-Capit
55、al Markets ResearchRoberta FortesSenior Economist for Ibero-Latamroberta.fortesallianz-Markus ZimmerSenior Economist,ESGJordi Basco CarreraLead Investment Strategistjordi.basco_Maria LatorreSector Advisor,B2Bmaria.latorreallianz-Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for US&Francemaxime.darmetall
56、ianz-Maddalena MartiniSenior Economist for Italy&GJasmin GrschlSenior Economist for E05 April 202341Recent PublicationsDiscover all our publications on our websites:Allianz Research and Allianz Trade Economic Research29/03/2023|Everything everywhere all at once24/03/2023|Swiss shotgun wedding Whats
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61、carry on 09/12/2022|The economics of war,(and its aftermath)08/12/2022|Eurozone:Old lessons for a new world01/12/2022|House of cards?Perspectives on European housing30/11/2022|ESG from confusion to action24/11/2022|Europe:How big will the interest rate shock be in 2023?23/11/2022|Black Friday for co
62、nsumers,bleak Friday for retailers?18/11/2022|Financial globalization:moving towards a polarized system?15/11/2022|Africas journey to net zero:USD7trn just for energy10/11/2022|Fixed income is back09/11/2022|US midterms:Republicans are back,(fiscal)policy impasses too04/11/2022|EU fiscal rules quo v
63、adis?03/11/2022|Picking up contagion in equity and commodity marketsAllianz Research42Forward looking statementsThe statements contained herein may include prospects,statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on managements current views and assumptions and
64、 involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.Actual results,performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.Such deviations may arise due to,without limitation,(i)changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation
65、,particularly in the Allianz Groups core business and core markets,(ii)per-formance of financial markets(particularly market volatility,liquidity and credit events),(iii)frequency and severity of insured loss events,including from natural catastrophes,and the development of loss expenses,(iv)mortali
66、ty and morbidity levels and trends,(v)per-sistency levels,(vi)particularly in the banking business,the extent of credit defaults,(vii)interest rate levels,(viii)curren-cy exchange rates including the EUR/USD exchange rate,(ix)changes in laws and regulations,including tax regulations,(x)the impact of
67、 acquisitions,including related integration issues,and reorganization measures,and(xi)general compet-itive factors,in each case on a local,regional,national and/or global basis.Many of these factors No duty to updateThe company assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking state
68、ment cont-ained herein,save for any information required to be disclosed by law.may be more likely to occur,or more pronounced,as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.About Allianz ResearchAllianz Research comprises Allianz Group Economic Research and the Economic Research departm
69、ent of Allianz Trade.Allianz Group Economic Researchhttps:/ 28|80802 Munich|GAllianz Trade Economic Researchhttp:/www.allianz- Place des Saisons|92048 Paris-La-Dfense Cedex|Franceresearchallianz-Director of Publication Ludovic Subran,Chief EconomistAllianz SEPhone+49 89 3800 7859allianzallianzallianz-tradeallianz-trade