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1、01The U.S.Economic OutlookOlu SonolaHead of U.S.Regional Economics2Mild Recession Still on the Table?Source:Fitch Ratings,BEA,BLS,FEDFalls in GDP mostly in Q4 2023 as consumer spending responds to more aggressive Fed tightening.Labor market strength and excess savings have underpinned consumer spend
2、ing.Labor market will moderately cool in 2H2023.Boost from excess savings will fade from Q42023Tighter credit conditions will increase downside risk.Forecast Summary Avg(%)20232024GDP Growth2.15.92.11.00.8Consumption2.58.32.81.00.8Investment3.37.4-0.2-1.61.7Net Trade-0.5-1.7-0.60.3-0.
3、5Inflation(end of period)2.57.06.53.72.7Unemployment Rate5.15.43.64.15.2Interest Rate(end of period)1.220.254.505.504.003Core GDP Growth Underpinned by Consumer SpendingSource:Fitch Ratings,BEAConsumer spending was solid in 1Q23.Eight straight quarters of decline in residential investment.Relatively
4、 flat business spending in 1Q23.4Inflation-Headline Cooling,Core Services StickySource:BLSDescription(Weight)2023:052023:04 2023:03 2023:02 2023:01 2022:12 2022:11 2022:10 2022:09 2022:08 2022:07 2022:06 2022:052022:042022:03 2022:02 2022:01 2021:12 2021:112021:10 2021:09 2021:08 2021:07 2021:06 202
5、1:05 2021:04 2021:03All items(100.0)4.0 4.9 5.0 6.0 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.5 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.8 6.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.2 2.6 Energy(7.0)(11.7)(5.1)(6.4)5.2 8.7 7.3 13.1 17.6 19.8 23.8 32.9 41.6 34.6 30.3 32.0 25.6 27.0 29.3 33.3 30.0 24.8 25.0 23.8 24.5 28.5 25.1 13.2 Food(13.4)6.
6、7 7.7 8.5 9.5 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 10.9 10.4 10.1 9.4 8.8 7.9 7.0 6.3 6.1 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.5 Core CPI-All Goods and Services(79.6)5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.0 1.6 Core Goods-All(21.3)2.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.4
7、2.1 3.7 5.1 6.6 7.1 7.0 7.2 8.5 9.7 11.7 12.3 11.7 10.7 9.4 8.4 7.3 7.7 8.5 8.7 6.5 4.4 1.7 Core Services-All(58.2)6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.1 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.5 1.6 Shelter-All(34.6)8.0 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.0
8、4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.7 Core Services ex Shelter-All(23.7)4.6 5.1 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.5 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 YoY%ChangeCategory DescriptionWeightYoYMoMHeadline CPICPI-All items 1004.00.1Energy Energy6.9-11.7-3.6Food Foo
9、d13.46.70.2Core Core CPI-All Goods and Services79.75.30.4Core Goods Core Goods-All21.42.00.6Core Goods Household furnishings and operations4.44.1-0.4Core Goods Apparel2.63.50.3Core Goods Transportation commodities less motor fuel7.80.11.5Core Goods Medical care commodities1.54.40.6Core Goods Recreat
10、ion commodities2.32.70.0Core Goods Education and communication commodities0.9-6.9-0.2Core Goods Alcoholic beverages0.84.80.5Core Goods Other goods1.26.60.6Core Services 579Core Services-All58.36.60.4Shelter Shelter-All34.78.00.6Shelter Rent of shelter7.68.70.5Shelter Lodging away from home1.23.41.8S
11、helter Owners equivalent rent of residences25.58.00.5Shelter Tenants and Household Insurance0.41.60.1Core Services Ex-shelter Core Services Ex.Shelter-All23.64.60.2Core Services Ex-shelter Medical care services6.4-0.1-0.1Core Services Ex-shelter Transportation services5.910.20.8Core Services Ex-shel
12、ter Recreation services3.15.8-0.1Core Services Ex-shelter Education and communication services4.82.8-0.2Core Services Ex-shelter Water and sewer and trash collection serv.1.56.70.02023:May5Core Services What is the Downward Path?Shelter inflation is still close to peak,downward trajectory looks clea
13、r.Wage inflation looks to have peaked,downward path is uncertain tied to the strength of the labor market.6Dis-inflation Will Continue During 2H23YoY inflation expected to be below 3.5%by year end.Core services inflation will be sticky,but gradually decline.No rate cuts expected in 2023.Two more 25b
14、ps hike to come.July and September/November.7What is Driving the Strength of the Consumer?Labor market is still playing catch-up to economic growth.Industries with chronic labor shortages in 2021&2022 have been playing catch-up.Job growth in interest rate sensitive sectors have slowed,not sharply de
15、clining.Strong labor market has boosted labor income.8What is Driving the Strength of the Consumer?Consumers continue to spend down pandemic excess savings.Down 60%from peak levels now$900b(5%of consumer spending).Some will never be spent in the near term.Top 1%hold approximately 30%.9What is Drivin
16、g the Strength of the Consumer?Volatility in motor vehicles and parts have been driving goods spending trend.Very strong spending on motor vehicles and parts is likely not sustainable.Services spending still not as strong as expected.Credit tightening may play a role in durables goods spending going
17、 forward.10Moderately tighter standards on consumer credit.Tighter standards on business loans.Very tight standards on CRE.Lending Standards are Tightening Across all Loan Types11Business investment and consumer spending(to a lesser extent)will likely be affected.Tightening Cycles Generally Lead Eco
18、nomic Cycles12For now,no evidence of systemic risk based on broad measures of systemic risk.U.S.National Financial Conditions Index:Comprehensive weekly update on US financial conditions.Incorporates money markets,debt and equity markets.Traditional and shadow banking systems.No Long-Lasting Evidenc
19、e of Banking Stress13No evidence of a credit crunch.Loan growth continues trend of steady deceleration.Still above pre-pandemic average.No Evidence of a Credit Crunch14Wrap-upMild recession still on the horizon.Strong labor market and consumer spending has offset other weaknesses.Headline inflation
20、will continue to decline.Core inflation remains sticky.Terminal rate is likely 5.75%.Pull back in lending is likely.a)Estimates from academic studies on impact of 1%decline in bank lending on real GDP varies.Ranges from 0.1%to 0.5%decline in real GDP-average is 0.2%.15Global State of Banks Christoph
21、er Wolfe,Managing DirectorNorth American Banks16Selected DM Bank Sector Outlooks COUNTRYSECTOR OUTLOOKCanadaDeterioratingUnited StatesDeterioratingAustraliaDeterioratingFranceNeutralUnited KingdomDeterioratingGermanyDeterioratingJapanNeutralItalyDeterioratingHong KongNeutralSingaporeImproving17Globa
22、l Bank,Insurance,and NBFI Ratings Actions Snapshot April 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Insurance(19)NBFIs(41)Banks(81)No change to ratingor Outlook/WatchUpgradeOutlook revised to Positive or placed on RWPOutlook revised to StableOutlook revised to Negative or placed on RWNDowngradeOutlook re
23、vised to Evolving or placed on RWERWP:Rating Watch Positive;RWN:Rating Watch Negative;RWE:Rating Watch EvolvingaIDR used for banks and NBFIs,combination of IDR and IFS for insurance groupsSource:Fitch RatingsGlobal Financial Institutions:Rating Actions by Sector(141reviewed groups or entities;Action
24、s taken between 1 and30 April2023,excluding new ratings)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%APAC(25)EMEA(58)Latin America(13)North America(45)No change to ratingor Outlook/WatchUpgradeOutlook revised to Positive or placed on RWPOutlook revised to StableOutlook revised to Negative or placed on RWNDowngr
25、adeOutlook revised to Evolving or placed on RWEaIDR used for banks and NBFIs,combination of IDR and IFS for insurance groupsSource:Fitch RatingsGlobal FinancialInstitutions:Rating Actions by Region(141 reviewed groups or entities;Actions taken between 1 and 30 April 2023,excluding new ratings)18Desp
26、ite Headlines,Global Bank Rating Activity Still Tilted Towards Affirmations051015202530MEANorth AmericaWestern EuropeCEE/CIS+Latin AmericaDM APACEM APACOutlook revised to Evolving or placed on RWEDowngradeOutlook revised to Negative or placed on RWNOutlook revised to StableOutlook revised to Positiv
27、e or placed on RWPUpgradeNo change to IDR or Outlook/Watcha Atotal of 81 actions,excluding new ratingsSource:Fitch RatingsGlobal Banks April 2023 IDR Actions by Region(Number of rating actions in April 2023a)19Although Negative Rating Actions on the Rise0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%MEANorth Amer
28、ica Latin AmericaEMAPACCEE/CIS+WesternEuropeDMAPACOutlook StablePositive Outlook/WatchNegative Outlook/WatchEvolving Outlook/WatchBanks:Significant Increase in Negative Outlooks and Watches in North America in April2023At end-April 2023(575groups or entitiesa)a Only banks with VRs,one bank per banki
29、ng group per country;excluding CCCand CC IDRs not associated with an Outlook or Watch Source:Fitch Ratings050100150WesternEuropeMEALatin AmericaDMAPACCEE/CIS+North AmericaEMAPACOutlook StablePositive Outlook/WatchNegative Outlook/WatchEvolving Outlook/Watcha Only banks with VRs,one bank per banking
30、group per country;excluding CCC and CC IDR not associated with an Outlook or Watch Source:Fitch Ratings(Number ofrated groups)Banks:Significant Increase in Negative Outlooks and Watches in North America in 1Q23At end-April 2023(575groups or entitiesa)20U.S.Banks Regime Change Christopher Wolfe,Manag
31、ing DirectorNorth American BanksSector Outlook:DeterioratingU.S.Banks 122U.S.Bank Sector Outlook:Deteriorating557948020222023 YTD%U.S.Banks-Rating OutlooksNegative Outlook/WatchStablePositive Outlook/WatchSource:Fitch Ratings.As of 5/9/2023024681012AA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB
32、-BB+BB(No.)Fitch Rated US Banks-Ratings DistributionSource:Fitch Ratings.As of May 2023.0.00.51.01.52.02.502468002120222023 YTD(x)(No.)U.S.Banks-Rating ChangesUpgradesDowngradeDowngrades/UpgradesSource:Fitch RatingsNote:First Republic,downgraded 3 successive times in 2023,is co
33、unted as one rating change.Downgrades to Upgrades YTD in 2023 is 5:0.-60-40-20020YE 2020YE 2021YE 2022May-23%U.S.Banks-Net Outlook BalanceSource:Fitch Ratings.23Fitch U.S.Bank Rating Actions Since March 2023PriorCurrentIssuerIDR/VROutlookIDR/VROutlookSignature BankBBB+/bbb+NegativeD/fWithdrawnFirst
34、Republic BankA-/a-StableD/fWithdrawnWestern Alliance BancorporationBBB+/bbb+StableBBB-/bbb-NegativePacWest BancorpBBB-/bbb-StableBB+/bb+RWNUMB Financial CorporationA/aStableA/aNegativeEast West Bancorp,IncBBB/bbbPositiveBBB/bbbStableFirst Horizon CorporationBBB/bbbRWPBBB/bbbStableTrustmark Corporati
35、onBBB+/bbb+NegativeBBB/bbbStableBankUnited,Inc.BBB/bbbStableBBB/bbbNegativeCommunity Bank System,Inc.A-/a-StableA-/a-NegativeSource:Fitch Ratings,IDR Issuer Default Rating,VR Viability Rating,RWP Rating Watch Positive,RWN Rating Watch Negative242023 Key Fundamental Expectations Reflect Deterioration
36、 vs.20222023 Fitch Expectations(vs.2022)Base CaseCommentsNet Charge-offsNet charge-offs are expected to rise for both consumer and commercial loans as the U.S.economy continues to slow,with the pace of deterioration dependent on the magnitude of a recession.Credit losses will likely lag deterioratio
37、n in the economy.Loan Loss ProvisionLoan loss provision will continue to be driven upward by loan growth and deteriorating economic conditions,and should move higher in advance of loan losses.Net Interest IncomeExpected to grow next year,albeit the pace moderating from 2022,based on growth in loans
38、and NIM expansion(albeit both less than 2022)and loan/securities portfolio mix shift.Non-Interest IncomeWhile 2022 provides a favorable comparison given sharp declines in investment banking fees and mortgage gain on sale income,a modest recession next year and higher interest rates should prevent me
39、aningful growth.Operating ExpensesWhile headcount reductions are expected in investment banking businesses,operating expenses should continue to be elevated due to inflation and continuation of technology investments.Operating ProfitabilityAlthough highly dependent on the occurrence of and depth of
40、a potential recession,the expectation is that higher loan loss provisions will exceed revenue growth and result in lower profitabality relative to 2022.Loan GrowthAfter a very strong year for loan growth in 2022,the expectation is that loan growth will moderate as the effects of the Feds tightening
41、monetary policy result in slowing economic growth and banks tighten their underwriting standards.Deposit GrowthThe effects of the Feds tightening of monetary policy including quantitative tightening is expected to result in higher outflows and net shrinkage in bank deposits as customers redeploy exc
42、ess cash into higher yielding securities.CapitalizationU.S.banks risk-based capital ratios are expected to remain relatively stable next year as loan growth and share buybacks moderate commensurate with a potential decline in earnings.Higher stress capital buffers and GSIB surcharges should drive in
43、creases in GTUBs capital ratios.Funding and LiquidityLoan to deposit ratios are expected to increase further next year and net outflows of bank deposits could lead to a higher reliance by some banks on less stable brokered deposits and wholesale funding sources.Source:Fitch Ratings.Floods and Drough
44、tsRegime Change:Monetary Policy226QT The Fed Giveth,the Fed Taketh Away0306090120150180Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24(USDbn)UST maturities(incl.T bills)Monthly SOMA UST maturity capSource:Fitch Ratings,Fe
45、d UST Monthly Maturities andFedUSTRun-Off Path 67891234Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24(USDtrn)(USDtrn)Currency(LHS)Reverse repo(LHS)Bank reserves(LHS)Total(RHS)Source:Fitch Ratings,Fed Fe
46、d Balance Sheet Projection and Selected Components0.51.01.52.02.53.03.5Jan 23Apr 23Jul 23Oct 23Jan 24Apr 24Jul 24Oct 24(USDtrn)Baseline-RRP FlatRRP+USD50bn/month until Dec 2023RRP-USD50bn/month until Dec 2023Source:Fitch Ratings,Fed Scenariosfor U.S.Commercial Bank Reserves Held at Fed 0500010000150
47、002000025000Jan 73Jan 79Jan 85Jan 91Jan 97Jan 03Jan 09Jan 15Jan 21(USDbn)SecuritiesLoansCashOther assetsSource:Fitch Ratings,Fed(H.8),HaverU.S.Commercial Banks Assets by Type Feast to FamineRegime Change:Funding&Liquidity328Money Market Funds Were Beneficiary of March Bank Turmoil;Industry Deposits
48、Stabilizing Although Deposit Betas Accelerating0.001.002.003.004.005.006.0002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000U.S.Domestic Chartered Bank Deposits and PricingDeposits-(LHS)Avg.Interest Bearing Deposit Costs-(RHS)Fed Funds Rate-(RHS)29Deposits at Mostly Digital Banks Growing-20-100102
49、0304050AXPDFSUSBCOFSYFALLYJPMHBANPNCTFCMTBKEYBACWFCFITBCCFGRF(%)Digital Banks Gaining Deposit ShareQoQYoYQoQ-Quarter over Quarter,annualized.YoY-Year over YearSource:Fitch Ratings.Where are the CracksRegime Change:Asset Quality431Bank Asset Quality Expected to“Normalize”as Credit Conditions Tighten6
50、.411.56.83.712.10.71.41.61.40.72.23.93.82.63.31.01.82.31.90.702468101214C&I LoansResidential MortgageCredit CardOther ConsumerCommercial Real Estate%Delinquency Rates Unsustainably Below Historical Averages*HighLowAverageCurrent(4Q22)*period between 1Q91 and 4Q22Source:Federal Reserve and Fitch Rati
51、ngs32Loan Loss Reserves and Asset Quality Issues on the Upswing0.00.51.01.52.02.53.04Q223Q222Q221Q224Q213Q212Q211Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q19(%)Reserve Coverage Ticks Up in 4Q22U.S.Banks Median Loss Reserve to LoansSource:Fitch Ratings0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.0005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000
52、30,00035,00040,00045,00050,0001Q234Q223Q222Q221Q224Q213Q212Q211Q214Q203Q20($Mil.)U.S.Bank Credit Performance Nonaccrual Loans(LHS)Median Credit Card Net Chargeoff Rate(RHS)aMedian Net Chargeoff Rate(RHS)aIncludes BAC,C,COF,DFS,JPM,PNC,USB,WFC Source:Fitch Ratings33CRE in Focus with Office in the Spo
53、tlight;Primarily a“Small Bank”Concern427534700213Q22U.S.Bank CRE as a Percent of Total Capital$100 bil.%11.326.932.518.15.60.24.79.730.155.500055Bank Assets$250 Bil.U.S.Bank CRE as a Percent of Total AssetsCRE Loans%of Tota
54、l Assets(LHS)Share of Industry Assets(RHS)%34Canadian Banks:Feeling the SqueezeMark Narron,Sr.DirectorNorth American Banks35Headwinds:Material But ManageableRising provisions and expenses coincide with slowing revenue growthBanks maintain 2023 provision guidanceNotable non-repeating charges Loan-to-
55、deposit ratios have normalized but liquidity buffers are largerAll-bank deposits continue to grow36Capital through the SVB LensLevels of loss absorption are stable If marked for unrealized losses,solvency remains adequateHigh liquidity will prevent crystallization of losses37Credit Quality:Live Stre
56、ss TestVariable rate mortgages continue to perform The shock for fixed-rate borrowers will not fully hit until 2025-2026DSIB mortgages amortizing 30 years increased to 20%of outstanding balances at 1Q23Path for rates and unemployment is unclearCRE provisions have increased but losses remain lowLow o
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