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1、Toulouse-13 June 2023Global Market Forecast 2023Worlds population by densitySource:CIESIN,SEDAC,Airbus GMF 2Air transport brings the worlds population centres togetherAirbus Global Market Forecast 2023Los Angeles-New York5 hoursNew York-London7 hoursTokyo-Los Angeles10 hoursBogota-Sao Paulo6 hoursCa
2、sablanca-Jeddah6 hoursParis-Beijing10 hoursAstana-Beijing5 hoursPerth-Sydney4 hoursMauritius-Delhi8 hoursAir transport has given us simpler and faster connectionsSource:BOAC Timetable 1957,Airbus GMF3 LondonIstanbulKarachiKolkataSingaporeSydneyDarwin202520 hours19575 days trip19526 weeks tripAirbus
3、Global Market Forecast 2023 Source:OAG(September data),Airbus GMF4Air transport connects more countries than ever,facilitating exchangesNew country pairs that have been created between 1999-2019:1,020 new worldwide country pairs(+33%)469 intra-regional(+30%)551 inter-continental(+36%)New additional
4、country pairs served by a non stop flight between 1999-2019Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023 Post-Covid capacity has recovered quickly as restrictions were lifted 5Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023Source OAG,Airbus GMF North AmericaLatin AmericaAfricaEurope&CISMiddle EastPRCAsia/Pacific(excl.PRC)I
5、ntl.Dom.100%102%101%Intl.Dom.100%114%92%100%Intl.Dom.112%104%Intl.Dom.100%112%104%Intl.Dom.100%101%90%Intl.Dom.100%126%41%Intl.Dom.100%101%81%WorldInternationalDomestic100%108%89%May 2023(Dom.)May 2023(Intl.)ASKs compared to 2019 level Air transport is a major contributor to GDP and Employment 6Airb
6、us Global Market Forecast 2023 North AmericaLatin AmericaAfricaEurope&CISMiddle EastAsia/PacificSource:ATAGs Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders,September 2020,Oxford Economics,Airbus GMF*Employment figures include direct,indirect,induced and tourism catalytic jobsContribution of air transport to regio
7、nal GDP 2018Contribution of air transport to Employment*2018World4.1%GDP$3.5 trillion 87.7M jobs 3.1%46.7M 5.0%8.7M 3.5%7.7M 4.4%13.5M 2.7%7.7M 7.6%3.4M Air transport is tightly linked to economic development and geographyAirbus Global Market Forecast 2023Source:IHS Markit,Sabre GDD,Airbus GMF72019
8、yearly trips per capita(bubble size proportional to country population)GDP per capita(Purchasing Power Parity$-2015)Source:IATA,ICAO,Airbus,EDGAR CO2 emissions,Airbus GMF*Note:commercial air transport direct share of total anthropogenic CO2 fossil emissions(excluding land use change)8Index base 100
9、in 1990Efficiency improvement has enabled democratisation of air travelCO2 emissions per RPK halved through technology and operational improvementsAir transport shareof CO2 emissions*Fuel burn per RPK-2.6%per yearFuel consumption 2.1%per yearRPKs4.8%per year90 gCO2 per passenger kilometre in 20194.5
10、 billion passengers carried in 2019 2019Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023Share CO2 emissions(%)GMF23 is an exploratory scenarioSource:Airbus GMF9 Now2050EXPLORATORY(forecast)NORMATIVE(backcast)From the current state of knowledgeFrom thedefined targetGMF 2023STEPS-Stated Policies ScenarioAPS-Announc
11、ed Pledges ScenarioSustainable Development Scenario-SDSNet Zero Emission-NZEAirbus Global Market Forecast 2023Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023Source:IHS Markit,Airbus GMF*Households with yearly income between$20,000 and$150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices10Underlying outlook for GDP,trade and p
12、opulation growthWorld GDP+2.5%CAGR 2019-2042World trade+2.9%CAGR 2019-2042Urbanisation+1.6 bnfrom 2019 to 2042World population+1.5 bnfrom 2019 to 2042Middle Class*+1.9 bnfrom 2019 to 2042GDP forecastSAF:penetration,emission reduction factor and prices Market-Based Measures:scope and pricesFuel effic
13、iencyTraffic growth scenario median at 3.6%CAGRSensitivities approach to deal with future uncertaintiesSource:Airbus GMF11Sensitivity on key driversPassenger traffic 2019-2042 CAGRNumber of traffic forecast scenariosPossible headwinds:Environmental regulations,energy availability,geopolitical instab
14、ility etcPossible tailwinds:More stable world order,further liberalisation,etcAirbus Global Market Forecast 2023 Modest growth in mature flowsAirbus Global Market Forecast 2023 Source:Airbus GMF12Top 20 traffic flows(RPK)Annual RPK(billions)CAGR 2019-2042(%)Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023 Source:
15、Airbus GMF13Top 20 traffic flows(RPK)and stronger growth in Asia and Middle East,led by India and PRCAnnual RPK(billions)CAGR 2019-2042(%)Stay(incl.2020-22 deliveries)Source:Airbus GMFNotes:Passenger aircraft above 100 seats&freighters with a payload above 10t14Number of aircraft22,880 aircraft in-s
16、ervice beginning of 2020:25%will stay in-service(including 2020-22 deliveries)75%will be replaced40,850 new deliveries 2023-2042:58%for growth42%for replacementGrowReplaceNew deliveriesAirbus Global Market Forecast 2023Demand for 40,850 new passenger&freighter aircraftDemand for 40,850 new passenger
17、&freighter aircraft over 2023-2042Source:Airbus GMFNote:Demand for passenger aircraft above 100 seats&freighters with a payload above 10t32,630 aircraft80%share of total new deliveries8,220 aircraft(inc.920 new-built freighters)20%share of total new deliveriesTypically Single-AisleTypically Widebody
18、Airbus Global Market Forecast 202315 40,850 new deliveries between 2023 and 2042 16Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023Source Airbus GMF Notes:Passenger aircraft(100 seats)&Freighters(10 tons payload)|Figures rounded to nearest 10 North AmericaLatin AmericaAfricaEurope&CISMiddle EastPRCAsia/Pacific(ex
19、cl.PRC)Typically Single AisleTypically WidebodyExpress air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo17World air cargo traffic+3.2%CAGR billion FTK2042520 billion FTK2019Expressboosted by e-commerce+4.9%CAGR 2019-2042 Express 25%General 83%General 75%Express 17%Source:IHS Markit,Seabur
20、y,IATA,Airbus GMFGeneral cargodominates the market+2.7%CAGR 2019-2042 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,230 aircraft by 204218Source:Airbus GMFNote:Freighters with a payload above 10tGrowNew-buildReplaceStay(incl.2020-2022 deliveries)Conversions3,230Airb
21、us Global Market Forecast 2023Number of freighter aircraftSource:Airbus GMFNote:Freighters with a payload above 10tAirbus Global Market Forecast 20231,020 aircraft890 aircraft600 aircraftSingle-Aisle(10t-40t)Mid-size Widebody(40t-80t)Large Widebody(80t)19Global demand for 2,510 freighters,over 2023-
22、2042 Airlines require the latest,most efficient and lowest-emission aircraftFleet modernisation:A strategic hedge against high energy costs75%of fleet not yet latest generation%of in-service fleet by aircraft generation13%25%5%202220192017Source:Cirium,Airbus GMFPassenger aircraft above 100 seats Ye
23、ar end|New generation:A220,A320neo Fam.,A330neo,A350,Emb-E2,737Max,787Freighter Single-AisleWidebodyBacklog:5,983 aircraftBacklog:520 aircraftBacklog:432 aircraftBacklog:187 aircraftBacklog:39 aircraftAirbus product line delivers 20-40%fuel burn reductionEnd of May 2023Latest generation aircraftOper
24、ationsSustainable Aviation FuelDisruptive technologyCO2 Offsetting&CaptureSource:Airbus GMF22Airbus is leading aviation decarbonisationActing on all levers2050+TodayContinuous incremental improvementExpanding upgrades/performance&trajectory optimisationMoving from 50 to 100%capability by 2030Develop
25、ing disruptive aerodynamics/airframe/propulsion/energySupporting CORSIA&carbon removalsFleet renewal/25%less CO2Services portfolio Up to 50%SAF capability Already 25%CO2 reduction compared to previous generation aircraft improving aircraft operational efficiency Albatross FelloFly eXtra Performance
26、Wing/ZEROe DACCS scale-up and advocacyLatest generation aircraftUp to 25%lower unit fuel and CO2 vs.previous generation-across the entire Airbus FamilyOnly 25%*of passenger in-service fleet are latest generation aircraftA350F will be the first latest generation freighter on the market*Passenger airc
27、raft above 100 seats End 2022/New generation:A220,A320neo Fam.,A330neo,A350,Emb-E2,737Max,787Operations&InfrastructuresIncreased efficiency of the current fleet,by up to 10%,with a range of solutionsUpgraded aircraft systemsOptimized flight trajectoriesDecarbonised on-ground operationsAir Traffic Ma
28、nagementSustainable Aviation Fuels Flying with 100%SAF reduces lifecycleCO2 emissions by around 80%All Airbus aircraft are already certified to 50%,certification up to 100%by end of decadeIndustrial uptake needed to increase SAFs availabilityCoalitions and partnerships signed to foster production of
29、 SAF Disruptive technologiesDevelopment,testing and maturity-based deployment of advanced technologiesAmbition to bring a zero emission aircraft to the market by 2035Hydrogen as a fuel for turbines,for electric motors via fuel cells and to produce SAFDeveloping advanced solutions for hydrogen or ker
30、osene fuelled aircraft(aerodynamics/airframe/propulsion/hybridization)Carbon removal optionsNature-based solutionsWidely used as offsets for compensation in voluntary and regulated markets Point-Source Carbon CaptureEmerging technology Competes with other industries Necessary as a transition solutio
31、n to develop synthetic fuels at scale Direct Air Carbon CaptureEmerging technology Enables credits from CO2 storage and CO2 as feedstock for synthetic fuelsCarbon credits from storage can only be used on voluntary markets or local carbon markets Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023Source:Airbus GMFTak
32、eaways29Passenger Traffic2019-2042 CAGRFreight Traffic2019-2042 CAGRFleet in service beginning of 2020 Fleet in service in 2042New deliveries 2023-20423.6%3.2%22,880 aircraft46,560 aircraft40,850 aircraft AIRBUS(Airbus S.A.S.,Airbus Operations S.A.S.,Airbus Operations GmbH,Airbus Operations LTD,Airb
33、us Operations SL,Airbus China LTD,Airbus(Tianjin)Final Assembly Company LTD,Airbus(Tianjin)Delivery Centre LTD).All rights reserved.Confidential and proprietary document.This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS.No intellectual property rights are granted by t
34、he delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content.This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S.This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied.The statement
35、s made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown,AIRBUS S.A.S.will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.AIRBUS,its logo,A220,A300,A310,A318,A319,A320,A321,A330,A340,A350,A380,A400M are registered trademarks.