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1、EMERGING MARKETS AND US INVESTMENT REPORT CONTENTSMARKET REVIEW 4CULT WINES PERFORMANCE 6MARKET OUTLOOK 7 US 8 Australia 9 South America 10 Spain 12 Germany 13CULT WINES INVESTMENT VIEW 14SELECT NEW RELEASES TABLE 15CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM3KEY POINTS:Through the end of August,the Liv-ex Rest o
2、f World 60 and California 50 indices have returned 10.7%and 10.5%respectively,two of the top three performing regions in 2021.Our outlook remains strong,particularly for EM regions such as Chile and Argentina where quality is hitting new heights.California wines continue to display amazing quality,b
3、ut the recent rally could ease as prices are high.New releases in September could create new opportunities with several releases coming via La Place de Bordeaux,boosting global awareness.Relative value versus traditional European regions is a key driver of EMs growth potential.Therefore,an active,an
4、alytical approach can uncover the best opportunities in different markets.CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM4This potential is on display in 2021.A strong August lifted the Liv-ex Rest of World 60(ROW60 the ten most recently physical vintages for six wines from Australia,Portugal,Spain and the US)to a 10
5、.7%year-to-date return,the top mark among Liv-exs regional indices so far in 2021.MARKET REVIEWMARKET REVIEWThe ongoing expansion of the global fine wine market means the emerging markets(EM)and US regions offer some of the best opportunities to access great wines with compelling investment potentia
6、l.Many areas of EM are enjoying a surge in interest from wine lovers,investors and international wine publications alike.Therefore,this less-established market segment can deliver some of the strongest growth rates.Source:Liv-ex as of 31 August 2021FIGURE 1 Outpacing the fine wine marketLiv-ex regio
7、nal indices year-to-date returns0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%8.23%Liv-ex 10006.62%Bordeaux 50010.56%Burgundy 15010.07%Champagne 505.43%Italy 1007.52%Rhone 10010.74%ROW 6010.54%California 50Return%This rise has been driven by a rebound of some top-shelf US wines including Ridges Monte Bello a
8、s well as Screaming Eagle and Dominus.Overall,the Liv-ex California 50 index(last 10 physical vintages across five of the most traded brands)has returned 10.5%year-to-date,second only to the ROW60 and Burgundy.EM regions and the more established US market performance draws from both the improving qu
9、ality as well as the relative value compared to traditional old world regions.However,previous to the 2021 rally,the ROW60(Figure 2)experienced a period of subdued performance from mid-2018 into 2020.In the wake of rapid gains in 2016 and 2017,some EM wines no longer offered the same degree of relat
10、ive value compared to the traditional old world wine regions.Hence,the more established French regions led the initial rally when the wider fine wine market began its rebound from the initial COVID-19 downturn in May 2020.CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM595.0105.0115.0125.0135.0145.0155.0Aug-16Feb-17Au
11、g-17Feb-18Aug-18Feb-19Aug-19Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Index level rebased at 100 on 31 Aug 2021Rest of World 60(Incl.US)Liv-ex 100Liv-ex 1000California 50FIGURE 2 Strong gains follow temporary slowdownLiv-ex ROW60 and California 50 index performance August 2016 August 2021Source:Liv-ex as of 31 August
12、 2021MARKET REVIEWAdditionally,EM regions have had to contend with external headwinds in the form of tariffs.As part of a much-publicized trade war with the US,China implemented tariffs on US wine imports in 2019(54%since December 2019).More recently,China slapped tariffs on Australian wine imports
13、in late 2020(ranging from 116%to 218%).These headwinds temporarily slowed EM and US price growth but once the relative value and macro backdrop improved,EM and US performance caught up in a big way and now sit at all-time highs.TRADE SHARE GROWTHIt is no secret the fine wine market has diversified s
14、ubstantially in recent years beyond the core Bordeaux and Burgundy regions thanks to improved technology widening distribution of fine wine globally.The unique conditions created by the COVID-19 pandemic may have accelerated this trend over the past year,benefitting many EM regions.The Rest of World
15、(excl US)trade share(by value)was below 1%at the beginning of the decade but its monthly average had climbed to 5.9%in 2020.Even though the trade share has eased some this year,this is partly down to the surge in demand for French regions following the end of the US tariffs on many European wines.1.
16、0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%20021(YTD)%of total Liv-ex fine wine tradeROW-Average monthly trade shareUS-Average monthly trade shareFIGURE 3 Strong trade sharesAverage monthly percentage of Liv-ex fine wine trade by valueCULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM6CULT WINES PERFORMANCECULT WINES PERF
17、ORMANCEFIGURE 4 Active approach leads to strong returnsCW EM and US performance vs Liv-ex ROW60 index,31 July 2018 31 July 2021 1yr 3yr 5yr Since inception*CW EM*1.5%7.5%41.4%59.0%CW USA 2.0%3.0%27.0%76.6%Liv-ex ROW60 6.9%2.6%31.9%44.4%*CW EM includes wines from Australia,Chile and Spain *CW began t
18、racking EM and US data on 31 Oct 2013Source:Pricing data from Liv-ex,analysis by Cult Wines Ltd as of 31 July 2021Cult Wines selections from both US and leading EM regions have produced strong price appreciation over most time frames since we started tracking returns across these regions(31 October
19、2013).Backed by strong qualitative and quantitative research,we select individual producers and wines from both US and leading EM regions to maximise performance within wider market trends.This top-down/bottom-up approach helped us maintain healthy growth in mid-2020 even when the ROW60 was broadly
20、flat.Conditions remain in place for long-term trade share growth.Many regions are producing more consistent high-quality wines which creates a positive feedback loop of critical praise and international recognition and demand.New investments in EM wineries from leading names in the global industry a
21、re also aiding both quality as well as recognition.Our constant push to find new corners of the global market that are poised for price growth allows us to realise gains from market segments outside the Liv-ex indices.Most notably,our wine picks from Chile rose substantially over the past three year
22、s on the back of increased global recognition of the regions improving quality.CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM72.6%7.4%44.1%18.2%3.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%Liv-ex ROW 60CW AustraliaCW ChileCW SpainCW USASource:Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 July 2021FIGURE 5 Chile cham
23、pions CWs performanceCWs 3-year return percentage by countryAmid a strong backdrop overall for fine wine,we hold a positive long-term outlook for EM and US markets.The ongoing diversification and expansion of the global fine wine market will help drive growth.Many EM wines were late to join the ongo
24、ing global fine wine rally,meaning we think the near-term price growth should continue and could produce some of the stronger returns in the coming months.However,the diversity of EM means a deeper analysis looking at individual countries,vintages and wines is the best approach.In recent years,a num
25、ber of EM and US producers are gaining in notoriety on the back of more widespread distribution via La Place de Bordeaux-the historic system used to distribute the wines of Bordeaux globally.Initiatives such as these highlight the growing recognition of these world-class wines and should only help b
26、oost global demand.September will feature several new releases from across the EM and US world.The exciting wines from the 2018 and 2019 vintages(see list at end)will be instrumental in generating near-term demand.Similar to the Bordeaux En Primeur season,the releases can create opportunities for ar
27、bitrage by seeking out the best relative value opportunities among the new wines and back vintages.CULT WINES PERFORMANCEMARKET OUTLOOKCULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM8MARKET OUTLOOKFIGURE 6 US wines 5-year growth ratesSelect US wines CAGR all vintages performance 31 July 2016 31 July 2021Despite a pos
28、itive long-term view for the US,we exercise a degree of caution in the short-term following a strong 2021 so far.When prices at the top of the market become too stretched after a period of strong gains,temporary mixed performance can follow.The gradual expansion of the market over time will bring in
29、creased choice,but it is not yet as deep as traditional French or Italian regions.An active approach is important to identify the best times to invest and most attractive wines.Several new releases from the 2018 vintage and future 2019 releases look like a new high-quality California wave with a bev
30、y of impressive critic scores,including a perfect 100 points(Wine Advocate)for 2018 Vrit La Muse and 2018 Dalla Valle Maya.“Napa Valley experienced two stunning back-to-back vintages in 2018 and 2019 the likes of which I have never seen The 2018s are refined and vibrant,while the young 2019s have a
31、bit more depth and energy.”-Vinous Antonio Galloni.FAVOURABLE MARKET TRENDS SHOULD SUSTAIN LONG-TERM GROWTH NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK IS MIXED FOLLOWING PERIOD OF STRONG GAINS.ATTENTION FOCUSSED ON HIGH-SCORING NEW RELEASESThe US market,dominated by California wines,should maintain a favourable long-term tr
32、ajectory due to:OUTSTANDING QUALITY Liv-ex reported that critics have awarded more perfect 100-point scores to California wines than any other global fine wine region so far in 2021 (50 as of 28 July).This generates more market attention on these specific wines,which spills over to other wines and v
33、intages from the region.DIVERSIFICATIONThe regional market is diversifying to new California sub-regions as well as some high-quality Oregon Pinot Noirs.DOMESTIC DEMANDUS-based demand has accounted for over half of the total trade share by value in 2021 compared with just single percentage points tw
34、o years ago,according to Liv-ex data.This should add a stabilising influence by protecting against changes in foreign tariff regimes as well as shifts in FX rates.REGIONAL BREAKDOWN USACAGR=Compound annual growth rate Source:Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 July 20216.90%6.90%9.10%12.10%6.40%0.00%2
35、.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%Screaming Eagle(US)Opus One(US)Harlan Estate(US)Ridge,California Cabernet Sauvignon Monte Bello(US)Dominus(US)CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM9MARKET OUTLOOKREGIONAL BREAKDOWN AUSTRALIA CHINAS TARIFFS ON AUSTRALIAN WINE IMPORTS FORM AN ONGOING HURDLE RECENT SLOWDOWN
36、 COULD OPEN UP RELATIVE VALUE OPPORTUNITIES OVER THE LONG-TERMThe Australian fine wine market is experiencing a challenging period and price direction has been mixed over the past year.Australian wine has had to contend with Chinese tariffs since late 2020.Since the end of November when Chinese tari
37、ffs were implemented,CW Australia returns have been broadly flat whereas theyd posted a 9.1%return in the preceding 12-months.As China formed Australias largest export market for wine,Australias trade share by value has also declined.Looking ahead,the Chinese tariffs are set for a five-year period.H
38、owever,the current climate could create opportunities to access high-quality Australian wines through an active approach.Figure 7 shows Australian wines long-term returns still look appealing even with the recent woes.As the rally in other areas of fine wine outpaces Australia,wines here will become
39、 more attractive on a relative value basis.FIGURE 6 Australia wines 5-year growth ratesSelect Australia wines CAGR all vintages performance 31 July 2016 31 July 2021Source:Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 July 20214.07%4.70%9.20%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%Torbreck,The L
40、aird (Australia)Penfolds,Grange (Australia)Henschke,Hill of Grace (Australia)CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM10MARKET OUTLOOK IMPROVING QUALITY AND INCREASED ATTENTION SHOULD SUSTAIN SOUTH AMERICAN WINE RENAISSANCE NEW RELEASES COULD ADD NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ARBITRAGE WITHIN DEVELOPING MARKETWe think
41、the future for South America is bright thanks to a steady rise in quality,increased attention from wine critics,and improvements in technology that support wider access.The rise in quality is not based on one strong vintage but consistent efforts and investments from several producers to perfect the
42、ir craft and deliver world-class wines to the global market.FIGURE 8 South American wines 5-year growth ratesSelect Argentinean and Chilean wines CAGR all vintages performance 31 July 2016 31 July 2021REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SOUTH AMERICAThe 2019 Sea is a standout among the exciting new Chilean releases
43、with the fresh,vibrant wine receiving 98-point Wine Advocate(WA)score.The 96-point(WA)2018 Clos Apalta has also turned heads at recent tastings.Argentinas new wines feature an excellent 2018 Cheval des Andes(no WA score yet)and a 96-point(WA)2018 Nicolas Catena Zapata,a producer seeking to revive th
44、e classic style of Bordeaux wines in the new world.Source:Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 July 20213.01%3.05%6.90%7.23%12.50%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%2.26%Cheval Blanc&Terrazas de Los Andes,Cheval des Andes(Argentina)Familia Zuccardi,Uco Valley Paraje Altamira Finca Piedra Infini
45、ta(Argentina)Casa Lapostolle,Clos Apalta(Chile)Vina Don Melchor,Cabernet Sauvignon(Chile)Rothschild&Concha Y Toro,Almaviva(Chile)Mondavi&Chadwick,Sena(Chile)CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM11MARKET OUTLOOKEven after the strong recent gains,South American wines still offer excellent value compared to gl
46、obal peers.Figure 10 below compares the most popular searched for wines on Wine Searcher for three regions known for Bordeaux-style blends.Chiles relative value is clear to see.Even with inferior average critic scores(but trending higher),we think the prices can go much higher.Bordeaux=2012 Ch Mouto
47、n Rothschild,2018 Ch Lafite Rothschild,2018 Ch Margaux;Chile=2014 Sena,2016 Clos Apalta,2017 Vina Almaviva;US=2012 J Phelps Insignia,2014 Dominus Christian Moueix,2014 Opus One,2016 Harlan Estate.FIGURE 9 Critic scores trending higherWine Advocate scores of select South America winesFIGURE 10 Chile
48、still offers good valuePrice and critic score comparison of most-searched winesSource:W as of 16 August 2021Wine Advocate ScoreVinedo ChadwickClos ApaltaAlmavivaMondavi SenaCheval des Andes98969797+9099798992001720182019VintageSource:Wine Advocate as of 31 August 202
49、196.393.395.591.592.092.593.093.594.094.595.095.596.096.597.00.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0BordeauxChileUSAverage critic scoreAverage price per bottleCULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM12MARKET OUTLOOKREGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPAIN EXPANDING REGIONAL MARKET IS ADDING NEW NAMES INTO THE INVESTMENT SPHEREThe S
50、panish wine investment market is led by names such as Vega Sicilia and Pingus.Up-and-coming Spanish producers,including Remirez de Ganuza and many names from the high-quality Priorat region,are adding new sources of growth.FIGURE 11 Spanish wines 5-year growth ratesSelect Spanish wines CAGR all vint
51、ages performance 31 July 2016 31 July 2021Source:Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 July 20210.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%2.30%3.50%5.18%Pingus(Spain)Vega Sicilia,Unico(Spain)Remirez de Ganuza,Reserva(Spain)Excitement came to the Spanish market with the news that a new wine called YJAR from Tel
52、mo Rodriguez,one of Spains finest wine makers,will become the first Rioja wine to be sold via La Place de Bordeaux.With a Wine Advocate score of 96 points and just 7,000 bottles produced,the inaugural 2017 vintage should pull in strong demand that should help its future appreciation potential.We thi
53、nk the Spanish market can continue to grow.The suspension of the US import tariffs earlier this year should add support to the outlook as many Spanish wines had been subjected to the levy.CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM13MARKET OUTLOOKREGIONAL BREAKDOWN GERMANY EXCELLENT 2018 AND 2019 VINTAGES ARE PRO
54、PELLING GERMAN WINES INTO THE MAINSTREAMEarlier this year,Cult Wines delved into a region on the rise.Amazing quality German Riesling and Sptbugunder(Pinot Noir)wines continue to grow in popularity with global investment markets,led by iconic names such as Egon Muller,Schloss Johannisberg,Weingut Ke
55、ller among several others.In July,Liv-ex reported Germany made up 19%of the trade by value of the Rest of World category,up from just 2.2%in 2019.We think German wines will continue to pull in a wider audience.Growing popularity among US buyers could accelerate following the repeal of US tariffs ear
56、lier this year.CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM14CULT WINES INVESTMENT VIEWCULT WINES INVESTMENT VIEWEM OVERWEIGHT TACTICAL ALLOCATIONWe recommend an overweight stance to EM wines.The ongoing expansion and diversification of the global fine wine trade should underpin continued long-term growth of these
57、 more speculative regions of fine wine.EM was late to join the current rally in global fine wine markets following a period of underperformance in 2020.Therefore,we think it could outperform the wider fine wine market in the coming months as the rebound continues.US UNDERWEIGHT TACTICAL ALLOCATIONAl
58、though we expect US wines to post long-term growth,we currently recommend an underweight tactical allocation in favour of EM regions and other old world wines enjoying strong 2021 growth.California wines have delivered strong returns so far this year as well,but price appreciation in the concentrate
59、d market could ease as buyers look for value elsewhere.However,highly anticipated new releases(see following page)form a key area of focus for long-term growth.CULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM15SELECT NEW RELEASESUSAVintageScoreOpus one201898pts(WA)Vrit la joie201898pts(WA)Vrit la muse2018100pts(WA)Vri
60、t le desir201897+Pts(WA)Joseph phelps insignia201897+Pts(WA)Joseph phelps cabernet sauvignon201892+Pts(WA)Inglenook rubicon cabernet sauvignon201894pts(WA)Dalla valle maya2018100pts(WA)“Both vintages(2018 and yet-to-be released 2019)are a triumph at Opus One and a testament to the subtle changes tha
61、t Silacci and his team have been conducting in the vineyards and winery over the last 15+years.Bravo!”Lisa Perrotti-Brown,Wine Advocate“The fine tannins frame the wine perfectly.Really long and focused.Seamless.Elegance with power.This will age incredibly well,but already so gorgeous to try.”James S
62、uckling“The intensity and complexity of aromas and flavors all waltzing in captivating harmonycannot fail to make your head spin in the best possible way.Electrifying!”Lisa Perrotti-Brown,Wine Advocate“It may require just a little more time to come around than the La Joie and La Muse,and then I susp
63、ect this beauty is going to reward the patient.”Lisa Perrotti-Brown,Wine Advocate“One of the best Insignias ever.Alive and changing all the time.”James Suckling“Medium-bodied,the palate is as intense as it is elegant.”Lisa Perrotti-Brown,Wine Advocate“The full-bodied palate has tons of juicy black f
64、ruit layers,supported by fine-grained tannins and oodles of freshness,finishing long and fragrant.”Lisa Perrotti-Brown,Wine Advocate“As cerebral as it is downright hedonic,this Maya is simply jaw-dropping.”Lisa Perrotti-Brown,Wine AdvocateSELECT NEW RELEASESCULT WINES|WINEINVESTMENT.COM16Emerging Ma
65、rketsCountryVintageScoreAlmavivaChile201995+pts(WA)Vinedo ChadwickChile201997pts(WA)SeaChile201998pts(WA)Clos ApaltaChile201896pts(WA)Cheval des AndesArgentina201898pts(JS)Nicolas Catena ZapataArgentina201896pts(WA)Penfolds Bin 169Australia201896pts(WA)“2019 was a good year for Carmenere,which suffe
66、rs in extremely warm years like 2017,but in moderately warm years like 2019,the variety displays that herbal character and has good density.”Luis Gutirrez,Wine Advocate“I was truly impressed by this vintage,especially because of its elegance and freshness.”Luis Gutirrez,Wine Advocate“Its long,clean,
67、defined and super tasty.I feel this wine is getting better and better by the vintage.”Luis Gutirrez,Wine Advocate“Its showy,heady,hedonistic,aromatic,full-bodied and lush”Luis Gutirrez,Wine Advocate“Very long and structured,yet controlled and in balance.This will be a great wine indeed.”James Suckli
68、ng“balanced and harmoniousaims to revive the style of Bordeaux before phylloxera,from massal selection of ungrafted vines.”Luis Gutirrez,Wine Advocate“Ideally,it needs a few years in the cellar to show its best,with potential longevity of two decades or more.”Luis Gutirrez,Wine Advocate SELECT NEW R
69、ELEASESSELECT NEW RELEASESUK OFFICEThe Clockwork Building,45 Beavor Lane,London W6 9ART:+44(0)207 1000 950 E:SINGAPORE OFFICE9 Battery Road,#09-01 MYP Centre,Singapore 049910T:+65 6909 8170 E:HONG KONG OFFICE1001B 2,Kinwick Centre,32 Hollywood Road,Central,Hong KongT:+852 2818 0899 E:Co.Reg No.6350591US OFFICESuite 1116,200 Park Avenue SouthNew York,NY,10003 T:+(914)491 8417 E:CANADA OFFICE110 Cumberland StreetSuite 333Toronto,Ontario,M5R 3V5T:1 855 808 CULT(2858)E:CHINA OFFICE2441 CITIC Square,1168 Nanjing West Road,Shanghai 200041T:+86 21 6085 3559 E: