《Circana:2023年第一季度15类乳制品市场回顾报告(英文版)(28页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Circana:2023年第一季度15类乳制品市场回顾报告(英文版)(28页).pdf(28页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialDairy15 reviewJune 2023Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialCircana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential2Executive summaryAverage food&beverage inflation in Q1 2023 was 10.9%,but dairy inflatio
2、n hit 19.2%,driven by egg prices.Consumers look to private label for savings,with private label growth outpacing name brands in 13 of 15 dairy categories.Private label opportunities exist,especially as retailers focus on their own brands rather than continually taking price of name brand products.As
3、 inflations eases,expect brands to leverage promotions rather than reduce prices.Milk volume is declining as consumers turn to other beverages.Plant-based milks draw outsized attention for their relatively small contribution to the category.No/less oil is the fastest-growing dairy claim,driven by ma
4、rgarine/spreads;ultra pasteurized is a new entry into the top 10 claims as consumers look for longer product shelf life.Dairy can achieve growth by addressing U.S.adults consumption trends,including seeking more protein and avoiding sugar.While inflation has hit CPG hard,no category has seen prices
5、skyrocket like dairy.In this review,learn how the dairy industry is responding and where opportunities are for future growth.Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential3Q1 2023 food&beverage inflation is up nearly 11%but dairy inflation is up more than 19%Price inflation for bran
6、ded products by F&B segments for Q1 2023 vs.YA/Omni projected based on MULO pricingNote:Dollar-weighted average price(including base price and promotion)change across UPCs,based on releasable UPCs.Excludes any product mix effects.Source:IRI POS data ending 3/26/23.IRI Client Engagement2.7%3.8%4.2%6.
7、0%9.4%12.5%13.2%13.7%13.9%14.3%14.4%15.3%19.2%Fresh Meat&SeafoodProduceAlcoholProcessed MeatDeliIce Cream/FZDessertsSnacksShelf-StableMeals+IngredientsBakingBeveragesFrozen Meals+IngredientsBakeryDairyAvg F&B=10.9%CY 22 vs.YA8.5%9.6%3.7%14.0%10.4%10.7%12.4%13.0%13.1%13.2%15.3%13.9%15.5%Circana,Inc.a
8、nd Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential4Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialConsumers respond to rising grocery pricesRising grocery prices have consumers shopping differently for food.Nearly half of respondents indicate they are shopping at stores that offer low
9、er prices;many opt for private label.Q.How are you managing higher food costs?Base:Total Respondents 1001Source:Circana POS Data,MULOC-F&B including Perimeter,CPG Dollars,Volume,Price per Volume(week ends on a Sunday,5WE 2/12/2023);Circana/Omnibus Survey February 202349%42%41%36%32%31%22%20%9%Shop a
10、t food stores that offer lower prices(ex.Aldis)Buy more store brand/private label foods or beverages Only buy essential food items,no impulse purchases Use more coupons Buy less expensive cuts of meat Buy in bulk Make larger batches of meals to have leftovers Make more one-dish meals to use up the a
11、vailable foodNone of the aboveHow are You Managing Higher Food Prices?Food&beverage CPG performance5WE February 12,2023 vs.prior year$VolPPV+7.2%-3.8%+11.5%Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential5Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialHow dairy fares ac
12、ross the storeDespite continually increasing prices,dairy is the largest aisle and houses two of the top 15 growing aislesCircanaOmniMarketTotal U.S.MULO+C Total Store 52 Weeks Ending Apr 23,2023$78.7$69.9$61.5$39.5$37.4$37.3$33.6$33.3$32.3$32.0$30.6$27.0$24.6$23.6$23.5 DairyLiquorSnacksCarb Soft Dr
13、inksFresh FruitFresh VegetablesCOS BakeryCandyRfg MeatsSS MealsSports/Energy DrinksFz MealsWaterBakingCoffee/Tea24.5%16.8%13.9%13.8%13.8%13.6%13.4%13.3%12.3%12.2%12.2%12.2%11.9%11.7%11.7%Rfg DoughDairyCookies&CrackersFz Fruits&VegetablesFresh ChickenFresh BakeryEthnicCarb Soft DrinksSS BreakfastSpor
14、ts/Energy DrinksFz SnacksNon-Fruit DrinksSS MealsCOS BakeryCondiments&SaucesTop 15 Edible Aisles$sales(B)Top 15 Growing Edible Aisles%$sales$%Chg vs YA16.8%2.0%11.5%13.3%2.3%4.7%11.7%11.4%4.6%11.9%12.2%9.4%11.1%10.7%8.6%Unit%Chg vs YA-2.8%-0.9%-2.4%-2.3%-1.3%-3.5%-3.6%-2.8%-3.0%-3.3%0.6%-5.9%-5.2%-2
15、.8%-4.3%Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential6All categories are seeing strong dollar growth with high inflationBut volume sales are down in nearly all categoriesCircanaOmniMarketTotal U.S.MULO+C 52 Weeks Ending Apr 23,2023(Total Milk incl.Plant-Based)$18,509$17,328$9,114$8
16、,056$7,898$5,881$4,401$3,445$2,670$1,826$1,726$1,662$1,618$1,222$1,117 Total MilkNatural CheeseYogurtIce Cream/SherbetFz NoveltiesCreams/CreamersButter/Butter BlendsProcessed CheeseCream CheeseRfg Whipped ToppingMargarine/SpreadsRfg DipsSour CreamCottage CheeseRfg DessertsTop Categories Dairy15$sale
17、s(MM)$vs.YAVol.vs.YA8.5%-3.3%8.2%-0.7%12.7%-1.6%7.7%-2.8%10.2%-2.7%16.1%0.1%25.6%-1.4%7.5%-3.3%22.2%0.3%21.7%4.1%29.0%-3.3%8.9%-1.8%17.3%-1.3%15.1%-1.9%7.0%-4.8%11.4%-2.6%Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential7Dairy white milk is the largest and fastest growing sub-categoryT
18、his is bolstered by higher prices and value-added and private label growthCircanaOmniMarketTotal U.S.MULO+C 52 Weeks Ending Apr 23,2023Top Categories Dairy15$sales(MM)$vs YAVol.vs.YA9.1%-2.7%12.3%-1.6%11.0%0.1%7.7%-3.2%9.7%0.0%16.5%1.2%7.0%-1.0%27.2%-1.8%7.6%-0.3%12.2%-1.2%29.0%-3.3%1.0%-10.6%8.9%-1
19、.8%17.3%-1.3%4.3%-7.0%$14,127$7,916$7,343$7,128$6,624$4,453$4,399$3,971$3,126$1,961$1,726$1,719$1,662$1,618$1,573 Rfg White MilkRfg YogurtFz NoveltiesIce CreamNatural Chs ShreddedRfg Coffee CreamerNatural Chs ChunksRfg ButterNatural Chs SlicesProcessed Chs SlicesMargarine/SpreadsRfg Flavored MilkRfg
20、 DipsSour CreamRfg Almond Milk11.4%-2.6%Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential8Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialMany of the top growing dairy categories are getting a boost from private labelTop Growing Categories Dairy15$sales (MM)Top Growing Pr
21、ivate Label Dairy Categories Dairy15$sales (MM)$1,446$1,315$1,030$898$814$734$575$485$388$326$240$238$160$137$73Total MilkNatural CheeseRfg YogurtButter/Butter BlendsCream/CreamerFz NoveltiesIce Cream/SherbetCream CheeseMargarine/SpreadsRfg Whipped ToppingsProcessed CheeseSour CreamCottage CheeseRfg
22、 DipsRfg Desserts$843$519$504$226$186$166$130$128PL Rfg White MilkPL Rfg ButterPL Natural Chs ShreddedPL Non-Aerosol Whipped ToppingPL Ice CreamPL Natural Chs SlicesPL Rfg YogurtPL Rfg Coffee Creamer+$8.859Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential9Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L
23、.P.|Proprietary and confidentialPrivate label growth is outpacing brands in 13 of 15 dairy categories This is reversing the 2022 trend when brands were dominantCircanaOmniMarketTotal U.S.MULO+C 52 Weeks Ending Apr 23,2023Dairy15 Branded vs.PL$ShareDairy15 Branded vs.PL$%Change vs.YA54%64%72%79%97%49
24、%51%83%73%43%92%74%86%80%89%46%36%28%21%3%51%49%17%27%57%8%26%14%20%11%Butter/Butter BlendsCottage CheeseCream CheeseCreams/CreamersMargarine/SpreadsTotal MilkNatural CheeseProcessed CheeseSour CreamRfg Whipped ToppingsYogurtRfg DipsRfg DessertsIce Cream/SherbetFz NoveltiesBrandedPrivate Label19.0%1
25、0.8%18.4%13.7%28.6%6.4%5.1%5.2%13.7%11.3%12.0%6.7%7.4%6.1%10.3%34.3%23.4%32.9%25.8%43.4%10.5%11.6%20.0%28.2%30.8%21.5%15.8%4.6%14.5%10.1%Butter/Butter BlendsCottage CheeseCream CheeseCream/CreamerMargarine/SpreadsTotal MilkNatural CheeseProcessed CheeseSour CreamRfg Whipped ToppingsYogurtRfg DipsRfg
26、 DessertsIce Cream/SherbetFz NoveltiesBrandedPrivate LabelCircana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential10Walmart will promote its own-label productsas a more affordable option to name brands that continue to raise priceshttps:/ organic milk:$3.98 vs.$6.4932-oz creamer:$3.98 vs.$4.6
27、9Walmarts great value vs.name brand Name brands may not be done taking price,but with cardboard and transportation costs declining,Walmart warns suppliers it doesnt wantto see brand prices rising.Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential11Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Propr
28、ietary and confidentialDairy15 dollar growth is driven by increasing trips and dollars per trip The percentage of households buying are flat after recent declinesCircanaOmniConsumerScanPanel,Total US All Outlet,Latest 52 weeks ending Apr 23,2023,NBD Dol AppliedDollar sales$91.0B+11.9%HH buying99.2%|
29、0.0 pts98.4%|-0.1 ptsBuyers127.1M+0.6%Dollar per buyer$715.8+11.2%Trips per buyer68.4+0.9 tripsDollar per trip$10.46+9.8%2x+Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential12Dairy15 over indexes to larger HHs,income$100K,HH age 35-44 and HHs with childrenCircanaOmniConsumerScanPanel,T
30、otal US All Outlet,Latest 52 weeks ending Apr 23,2023,CohortsDollar indexGenerationGen Z:HH born 1997and After64Millennials:HH born 1981-9698Gen X:HH born 1965-80104Boomers:HH born 1946-64102Retirees&Seniors:HH born b4 194689IncomeIncome$100K113ChildrenChild None92Child 1+119HispanicNon Hispanic/Unk
31、nown95Acculturated Hispanic101CohortsDollar indexHH size1 Person HH672 Person HH1033 Person HH1124 Person HH1205+Person HH129HH head ageHH Age 18-2466HH Age 25-3489HH Age 35-44110HH Age 45-54104HH Age 55-64103HH Age 65+98HH raceRace White109Race African American67Race Asian78Race Other/Unknown881201
32、10 to 12080 to 9080Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential13No/less oil is the fastest growing claim,driven by the margarine/spreads category Ultra pasteurized is a new entry into the top 10 claimsNotable declining claims include antioxidant-1.6%,non-dairy-4.9%and fiber-31.9%
33、CircanaOmniMarketTotal U.S.MULO+C 52 Weeks Ending Apr 23,2023$Sales$Growth+40.2%$273M$Sales$Growth+22.8%$1,432M$Sales$Growth+22.8%$999M$Sales$Growth+18.8%$999M$Sales$Growth+18.6%$444M$Sales$Growth+17.2%$3,743M$Sales$Growth+15.9%$5,831M$Sales$Growth+15.3%$937M$Sales$Growth+14.6%$4,500M$Sales$Growth+1
34、4.0%$1,152MNo/Low CholesterolAnimal ClaimsHumanely RaisedAnimal ClaimsGrass Fed DietNo/Low Trans FatNo/Less OilDigestion ClaimsPrebiotic/ProbioticNo PreservativesUltra PasteurizedNo/Reduced LactoseCircana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential14Milk volume has been declining Plant-b
35、ased is a mature sub-category,but its still too small to offset dairy declinesSource:Circana OmniMarket Total U.S.MULO+C Calendar Years 2017-2022 Eq Volume5 YR CAGRPlant-based+6.9%Total milk-2.4%Dairy milk-3.2%10%of TotalCircana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential15Consumers have
36、 not abandoned beveragesSource:Circana OmniMarket Total U.S.MULO+C Calendar Years 2017-2022 Eq VolumeConsumers have not abandoned dairyExtended shelf-life(ESL)Rfg tea/coffeeSports/energy-4.9%+5.8%+4.0%Natural cheeseCream/creamerCream cheese+3.5%+4.7%+3.1%5 YR CAGR5 YR CAGRCircana,Inc.and Circana Gro
37、up,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential16There are growth pockets in dairy milk with successful claimsSource:Circana OmniMarket Total U.S.MULO+C Calendar Years 2017-2022 Eq VolumeLactose freeProteinNo/low sugar+16.1%+10.0%+9.3%But the pockets are small2022%of TotalLactose free+6.1%Protein+2.5%No/low su
38、gar+1.5%5 YR CAGRCircana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential17Value-added dairy milk is growing but not offsetting traditional volume declinesSource:Circana OmniMarket Total U.S.MULO+C Calendar Years 2017-2022 Eq VolumeBut is propping up overall dairy milk in dollarsValue addedTo
39、tal dairy milkTraditional-4.0%5 YR CAGRDollars5 YR CAGRVolume28%Of dollars16%Of volume-2.4%+2.7%Value added+6.1%Total dairy milk+2.2%Traditional+0.9%Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential18Extended shelf-life/ultra pasteurized dairy milk is growing but not offsetting HTST vo
40、lume declinesSource:Circana OmniMarket Total U.S.MULO+C Calendar Years 2017-2022 Eq VolumeBut is propping up overall dairy milk in dollarsExtended shelf-life(ESL)Total dairy milkHigh-temperature,short-time(HTST)-4.0%5 YR CAGRDollars5 YR CAGRVolume24%Of dollars13%Of volume-2.4%+4.8%Consumers are attr
41、acted to the longer shelf-life of ESL and UP products.ESLTotal dairy milkHTST+1.0%+2.2%+7.0%Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential19Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialThe disruption of meals shifting to home continuesSources:Circana/National Eating
42、 Trends,CREST;quarterly dataNote:Chart references the trend in meals tab in the annual Eating Patterns in America data tables,which is intended to create a comprehensive view of consumption by combining NETand CRESTviews.17%17%16%15%12%14%14%15%15%15%15%13%14%14%14%83%83%84%85%88%86%86%85%85%85%85%8
43、7%86%86%86%3 MEJun19 3 MESep19 3 MEDec19 3 MEMar20 3 MEJun20 3 MESep20 3 MEDec20 3 MEMar21 3 MEJun21 3 MESep21 3 MEDec213 MEMar223 MEJun223 MESep223 MEDec22Quarterly Share of OccasionsCOVID-19Percent consumed in homePercent consumed away from homeCircana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and co
44、nfidentialCircana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential20Milk share in-home versus away from homeMilk is rarely consumed away from homeSource:Circana/National Eating Trendsand CREST;Year Ending Dec.2022Foodservice excl retail,6%Retail/Home,94%Share of Milk Drinkings by Source20Circa
45、na,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential21Beverage consumption increased in 2022Source:Circana/National Eating Trendsand CREST,years ending DecemberAway from home:Total beverages excluding tap waterIn-home:Sourced from retail/home9 billionEquates to roughly 28 more beverage drinkin
46、gs=Annual drinkings per capita including a beverageIn-home and away from home1,44520211,4732022Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialCircana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential22Plant-based milks are more reliant on host foodsSourced from retail/homeSource
47、:Circana/National Eating Trends,Percent of Eatings,2YE Dec 2022 52%48%70%30%Of dairy milk is consumed as an end dish(glass of milk)Of non-dairy milk is consumed as an end dish(glass of milk)Of dairy milk is consumed as an ingredient to a host foodOf non-dairy milk is consumed as an ingredient to a h
48、ost foodHost foods for dairy milkHost food for non-dairy milk55%Cold cereal18%Coffee5%Hot cereal3%Tea2%Pancakes,waffles,fr toast44%Cold cereal25%Coffee10%Hot cereal4%Protein/nutrition drink4%Fruit smoothie22Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialCircana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L
49、.P.|Proprietary and confidentialAdults seek more nutritional benefits in their dietProtein is the top substance consumers say they want to increase in their dietsSource:Circana/Health Aspirations&Behavioral Tracking Service,Year Ending Dec.2022Percent of Adults Seeking More in Their Diets
50、021243340CalciumOmega-3 Fatty AcidsPlant-based foodsOrganic foodsProbioticsAntioxidantsWhole foods/unprocessedWhole grainsFiberProtein23Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialWhat adults are avoiding in their dietOnly 1 in 10 adults avoid dairy compared to half who avoid suga
51、rsSource:Circana/Health Aspirations&Behavioral Tracking Service,Year Ending Dec.2022Percent of Adults Avoiding in Their Diets42626273549DairyBio-engineered foodsGenetically modified/GMOsCaffeineCaloriesPreservativesSaturated FatsCarbohydratesCholesterolSalt/SodiumSugar24Circana,Inc.and Ci
52、rcana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential25Dairy milk consumption by consumer needDairy milk is less appealing to consumers seeking protein or avoiding sugarsSource:Circana/National Eating Trends,Year Ending Dec.2022Adults 18+onlyAnnual dairy milk drinkings per capita(adults only)IntentYesNoSeek
53、ing more protein130140Avoiding sugars131140Avoiding dairy87141Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidential26Circana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialWhat to expect for dairyExtreme inflation in dairy moderates in 2023 but still likely to be the highest in the
54、store.CPG and dairy are insulated more than discretionary categories.PL to follow dairy commodity markets down but slower than in previous years as retailers stretch margins to insulate from future challenging times.Brands which took numerous price increases in 2021-2022 will be reluctant to take de
55、creases in 2023,choosing instead to deal back margin in promotions.Promotions were expected to return in 2021 following a dry 2020 but didnt materialize.Expect 2023 to be the year of promotion.Consumer behavior shifts continue to value channels,higher PL acceptance and buying value sizes but also sm
56、aller sizes with lower absolute price points.PL acceptance in dairy will continue to be strong as consumers see many categories as commodities where PL is equal to or better than branded products.Brands can win with effective differentiation,innovation,clear benefit/claims communication and winning
57、pricing and promotion strategies.Help retailers win the supply chain battle by providing consistent and reliable supply.Optimize shelf assortment by ensuring fastest moving items have ample facings.Continue to monitor external factors influencing consumer demand in the new(ab)normal.Return to 2019 n
58、ormalcy unlikely in coming years.Complete view of spending and consumption takes on an increased importance as constrained consumer shifts in spending impacts consumption behavior.Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialCircana,Inc.and CircanaGroup,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialCircana can help.Plus,registered users get new thought leadership from Circanas research,data and analytics experts.Click herehere to subscribe,oremail us at .Want to learn more?27Circana,Inc.and Circana Group,L.P.|Proprietary and confidentialThank youJohn CrawfordCircana John.C