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1、REPORTCBRE RESEARCHJULY 20232023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions SurveyIntelligent Investment2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportCBREs 2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey reveals positive investor sentiment
2、 despite rising interest rates,less credit availability and the potential for a recession.As a subset of the overall 2023 Global Investor Intentions Survey,conducted in late 2022,this report reveals expectations of investors specifically targeting multifamily investment and,comparatively,the expecta
3、tions of investors in all other property types.Multifamily fundamentals are expected to remain stable this year,suggesting that any potential price declines will be the lowest of any commercial real estate sector.Thats why,multifamily assets are the top acquisition target of investors for the first
4、time in the Global Investor Intentions Surveys seven-year history.Introduction3CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportKey FindingsSector PreferenceMultifamily is the primary sector target for 30%of survey respondents this year,up fr
5、om 23%in 2022.Industrial&Logistics fell to the second most preferred asset type this year,favored by 23%of survey respondents versus 42%last year.Location PreferencesGlobal gateway markets were most preferred by Europe,Middle East and Africa(EMEA)and Asia-Pacific(APAC)respondents.Tokyo topped the li
6、st for APAC,while London took the top spot in EMEA.U.S.Sun Belt markets again dominated investor preferences in the Americas,largely due to their strong fundamentals.While Dallas/Ft.Worth and Austin maintained the top spots for the Americas,two new marketsMiami/South Florida and Raleigh-Durhamentere
7、d the top five.Pricing&StrategyApproximately half of survey respondents expect to see small or no price discounts for multifamily assets this year.While 44%expect mid-to-large discounts,this is the lowest percentage of any other asset type.21%of multifamily investors expect to increase their allocat
8、ion to real estate,while only 14%expect to allocate less.The majority expect no change from 2022.50%of multifamily investors view high-risk(e.g.,opportunistic,distressed and debt)as the most attractive investment strategy in 2023.This was more than both office(40%)and industrial (45%)investor groups
9、.Multifamily Sector AlternativesStudent Living maintained the top spot over Seniors Housing as the most preferred multifamily alternative.Build-to-Rent/Single-Family Rental Housing(BTR/SFR)was the overwhelming top choice(68%)for respondents from the Americas.4CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent
10、Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportGlobal Multifamily Investment Falls Slightly in 2022Global multifamily investment volume totaled$365 billion in 2022,down by 23%from 2021 but 38%higher than pre-pandemic 2019.The U.S.,which accounts for roughly 80%of total global mul
11、tifamily investment activity annually,had a 16%year-over-year drop in 2022 due to rising interest rates.Multifamily investment volume in EMEA fell by 45%year-over-year to$67.2 billion in 2022 due to higher cost of capital and the war in Ukraine.While both the Americas and APAC still had sizeable inc
12、reases over their pre-pandemic 2019 totals(58%and 35%,respectively),EMEA had a 9%decline.Figure 1:Global Multifamily Investment0500300350400450500200002020212022US$BillionsAmericasEMEAAPACSource:CBRE Research,MSCI Real Assets,Q2 2023.5CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CB
13、RE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportCapital Deployment by RegionCross-border multifamily investment remains limited,though there were some regional shifts in 2022.While cross-border deployment from the U.S.stayed relatively the same,Canadas allocatio
14、n to the U.S.dropped in 2022.United StatesCanadaEMEAAPACFigure 2:Regional Capital Deployment for Multifamily Investment This is largely because Canadian investment in U.S.multifamily declined by 62%,while investment within its own borders only dropped 16%.Similarly,APAC investment in the U.S.dropped
15、 by 65%,while investment in its own region grew by 9%.APAC capital deployment in EMEA also increased substantially.As such,most changes in the global composition of multifamily investment were the result of less cross-border investment in the U.S.96%4%United States34%57%7%2%Canada7%0%89%4%EMEA6%45%4
16、9%APACSource:CBRE Research,MSCI Real Assets,Q2 2023.6CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportMost Investors Favor Home RegionsSeventy-two percent of respondents expect to invest in their region of origin in 2023,while 16%are targetin
17、g North Americadown from 24%in 2022.Approximately 6%of respondents expect to invest in Europe,up from barely 1%in 2022.The remainder are primarily targeting developed and emerging Asia.Figure 3:Which region will you primarily target for cross-border multifamily real estate investment in 2023?72.4%16
18、.3%6.4%3.1%1.5%0.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%No plans for cross-border investmentNorth AmericaEuropeDeveloped AsiaSoutheast Asia&IndiaPacificSource:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions S
19、urvey|ReportMost InvestorsFavor Home RegionsSurvey respondents from APAC overwhelmingly picked Tokyo as the top market for multifamily investment.Singapore tied with Shanghai for the second spot.Shanghai fell to 9%this year from 18%in 2022,while Singapore rose to 9%from 5%.Figure 4:Which are the mos
20、t attractive cities for multifamily investment in 2023?Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.Dallas/Ft.Worth 36%Austin 32%Nashville 25%Raleigh-Durham 24%Miami/S.Florida 31%Tokyo 31%Shanghai 9%Singapore 9%Hong Kong SAR 6%Sydney 7%Paris 29%London 38%Berlin 28%Amsterdam 26%Madr
21、id 17%Thirty-eight percent of EMEA respondents favor London this year,up from 26%last year.Paris also moved above Berlin with 29%,up from 21%in 2022.Amsterdam climbed one spot to fourth with 26%,while Madrid supplanted Munich for the fifth spot with 17%.U.S.Sun Belt markets were again the most favor
22、ed by Americas respondents,led by Dallas/Ft.Worth with 36%(unchanged from 2022).Austin came in second,up by 1 percentage point to 32%this year.Phoenix,which had tied with Austin in 2022,fell out of the top 5 completely and was replaced by Miami/South Florida.Nashville with 25%and Raleigh-Durham with
23、 24%rounded out the top five.8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportMultifamily Most Favored Property Sector for 2023Multifamily was the most preferred property type by 30%of survey respondents this year,up from 23%in 2022 and ecli
24、psing industrial&logistics at 28%.By region,multifamily was favored by 37%of Americas,25%of EMEA and 22%of APAC investors versus respective totals of 25%,23%and 14%last year.Figure 5:Which mainstream property type will you primarily target for investment in 2023?Source:Global Investor Intentions Sur
25、vey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.Multifamily30%Industrial&Logistics 28%Office19%Hotels/Resorts 10%Retail 8%Other5%GlobalMultifamily 37%Industrial&Logistics 28%Office11%Hotels/Resorts 12%Retail 9%Other3%AmericasMultifamily 25%Industrial&Logistics 23%Office 29%Hotels/Resorts 8%Retail 8%Other7%EMEAMultifamily
26、22%Industrial&Logistics 39%Office 24%Hotels/Resorts 5%Retail4%Other6%APAC9CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportMultifamily Only Property Type with Increased Global Preference The drop in preference for industrial&logistics assets
27、to 28%of survey respondents from 42%in 2022 paved the way for multifamily to take the top spot globally for the first time in this surveys seven-year history.Office saw a slight decline to 19%,while retail returned to pre-pandemic levels at 8%.Hotels/resorts increased in preference by 10%of survey r
28、espondents this year from 3%in 2022.Figure 6:Preferred Property Sector as Primary Investment Target30%28%19%10%8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%MultifamilyIndustrial&LogisticsOfficeHotels/ResortsRetail20020202120222023Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023Note:EMEA no
29、t included in 2020 data.10CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportInvestors Maintain Preferences for Multifamily AlternativesFavored by 23%of survey respondents,student living retained the top spot globally for multifamily sector alt
30、ernatives.Seniors housing was second with 17%,followed by affordable housing with 16%.BTR/SFR was an option given only to survey respondents in the Americas and was the overwhelming top choice(68%)for multifamily alternatives.Figure 7:Are you pursuing investments in any of the following alternative
31、sectors in 2023?30%25%20%15%10%5%0StudentLivingSeniorsHousingAffordableHousingBTR/SFRHousingManufacturedHousing2002120222023Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023Note:Multiple choices allowed.EMEA not included in 2020 data.Build-to-Rent/SFR and Mfd Housing were onl
32、y available to Americas respondents.Affordable Housing was only available to Americas and EMEA respondents.11CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportMost Multifamily Investors Expect Small-to-Mid DiscountsSeventy-four percent of surv
33、ey respondents expect to see small-to-mid discounts for multifamily assets this year.Only 6%expect large discounts and 16%expect no discounts at all.And while a small slice of the overall survey,multifamily also achieved the highest rate(5%)of respondents who were willing to bid above asking price.O
34、verall,just over half(51%)of investors expect multifamily to have either a small discount or no discount at all in 2023.Figure 8:Compared to the peak in Q1 2022,what are your 2023 pricing expectations across different sectors?6%10%11%16%19%30%42%39%40%40%41%43%39%36%35%28%30%29%25%21%13%16%19%15%13%
35、11%9%7%5%3%3%0%20%40%60%80%100%MultifamilyIndustrial&LogisticsHotelHigh Street RetailClass A Office(stabilized)Shopping MallClass A Office(value add)Large discount(30%+)Mid discount(10-30%)Small discount(lessthan 10%)No discountWilling to bid aboveasking priceSource:Global Investor Intentions Survey
36、,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.12CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportRising Interest Rates of Most ConcernNearly 70%of survey respondents cited rising interest rates as the primary challenge to commercial real estate investment this year
37、.Credit availability and the potential for a recession each were cited as top concerns by 50%of respondents.Inflation was a top concern for 31%.Only 15%of respondents cited the potential for declining multifamily market fundamentals as a top concern.Geopolitical issues and expiring eviction moratori
38、ums also scored relatively low.Figure 9:What are the major challenges facing real estate investment in 2023?(Multifamily Investors Only)Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.68%45%44%31%28%25%24%15%15%5%5%3%2%2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Rising interest ratesShift in credit a
39、vailability and loan termsFear of a recessionHigher and/or more persistent inflationOther central bank policy(e.g.,too aggressive/not aggressive enough with interest rate hikes orquantitative tightening)Mismatch in buyer and seller expectationsUncertainty of future property valuations(e.g.,shift in
40、cap rates)Declining fundamentalsUncertain geopolitical landscape(e.g.,Ukraine,geopolitical tension in East Asia)Fiscal policy(e.g.,aggressive tax cuts,stimulus that drives inflation)Other policy risk:rent control,eviction moratoriumsImpact of currency fluctuationsOtherLack of suitable productsquanti
41、tative tightening)13CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportCapital Allocations Largely UnchangedSixty-four percent of survey respondents expect to have the same allocation to real estate as they did last year.Twenty-one percent expe
42、ct an increased allocation,while only 14%expected a lower one.Across the regions,APAC had the most multifamily investor respondents(37%)who expected to increase their overall allocation to real estate.EMEA was the only region to have a greater number of respondents(26%)expecting a decrease in their
43、allocation vs.those expecting an increase(21%).Figure 10:Overall,how do you expect your allocation to real estate will change in 2023?(Multifamily Investors Only)Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.6%15%64%11%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Large increaseSmall increaseRemain a
44、bout the sameSmall decreaseLarge decreaseGlobalAmericasEMEAAPAC14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportHigher Risk Strategies in 2023Among the major commercial real estate sectors,multifamily had the most survey respondents(50%)fav
45、oring high-risk opportunistic,distressed and debt investment strategies.Only 8%viewed core strategies as the most attractive,which is much less than more risk-averse office investors(14%).This shows that the multifamily sector has the lowest risk-adjusted profile for investment in 2023,which makes r
46、iskier strategies more attractive overall.Figure 11:What type of strategy do you believe will be the most attractive for your organization in 2023?Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.14%18%28%19%13%8%10%18%27%24%12%9%8%20%23%24%14%12%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%CoreCore plusValue-a
47、ddOpportunisticDistressed assets&non-performing loansDebt strategiesOfficeIndustrialMultifamily15CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportWidespread Adoption of ESG PrinciplesNearly 60%of multifamily investor respondents said they wil
48、l continue to adopt environmental,social and governance(ESG)criteria in making investment decisions this year.Another 20%said they were unlikely to do so in the current climate.Multifamily investors largely appear less concerned with adoption of ESG criteria than investors in other asset types.Figur
49、e 12:To what extent has the current geopolitical and macroeconomic climate impacted your adoption of Environment,Social and Governance(ESG)criteria in your investment decisions?Source:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.70%15%6%9%66%13%7%13%59%13%8%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%We
50、 will continue to adopt ESG criteria inall our decisions.We had previously adopted ESG criteriabut will reconsider the scope based on thecurrent landscape.We were planning on adopting ESGcriteria but the current landscape hasdelayed our schedule.We are unlikely to actively plan and adoptESG criteria
51、 in the near to medium termgiven the current climate.OfficeIndustrialMultifamily16CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey|ReportWho Took Part in Our SurveyCBREs 2023 Global Multifamily Investor Intentions Survey was derived from our broade
52、r 2023 Global Investor Intentions Survey of nearly 1,400 commercial real estate investors,400 of whom specified the residential/multifamily sector as their primary target.The survey was conducted in late 2022.Figure 13:Percentage of Survey Respondent TypesSource:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBR
53、E Research,Q2 2023.Figure 14:Percentage of Respondents by AUMSource:Global Investor Intentions Survey,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.Insurance Company 5%Pension Fund 2%Bank 2%SovereignWealth Fund 1%Other 5%REIT 6%Developer/Owner/Operator 33%High Net Worth 7%Private Equity Fund 13%Real Estate Fund 26%$50 B$25
54、 B$50 B$10 B$25 B$5 B$10 B Copyright 2023.All rights reserved.This report has been prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they ar
55、e subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies,many of which are beyond CBREs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have different opinions,projections and analyses,and actua
56、l market conditions in the future may cause CBREs current views to later be incorrect.CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CB
57、REs securities or of the performance of any other companys securities.You should not purchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all cla
58、ims against CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,completeness,adequacy or your use of the information herein.Benjamin PipernosSenior Research AnalystGlobal Investor Thought LTravis DeeseAssociate DirectorMultifamily RResearch LeadershipRichard BarkhamGlobal Chief Economist&Head of Americas RHenry Chin,Ph.D.Global Head of Investor Thought Leadership&Head of Research,Asia P.hkContactsMatt VanceAmericas Head of Multifamily RDarin MellottSenior DirectorCapital Markets RJennet Siebrits UK Head of R