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1、GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 GWEC.NETAssociate SponsorsSupporting SponsorLeading Sponsor 1GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023Foreword 2Executive Summary 6Part 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 13Part 2:Technology 41Market Status 2022 52Markets to Watch 59Market Outlook 2023-2
2、032 90Appendix 108Table of ContentsGlobal Wind Energy CouncilRue de Commerce 31 1000 Brussels,Belgium Lead Authors Rebecca Williams,Feng ZhaoContributors and editing by Ben Backwell,Joyce Lee,Amisha Patel,Maf Smith,Mark Hutchinson,Anjali Lathigara,Wanliang Liang,Esther Fang,Thoa Nguyen,Ben Hubbard,M
3、arcela Ruas,Ramon Fiestas,Wangari Muchiri,Liming Qiao,Thang Vinh Bui,Eunbyeol Jo,Nadia WeekesAdditional contributions SER Colombia Asociacin Energas Renovables,Associao Brasileira de Energia Elica e Novas Tecnologias(ABEElica),Japan Wind Power Association,Renewable Energy Institute Japan,Korea Wind
4、Energy Industry Association,China Wind Energy Association,South African Wind Energy Association SAWEA,Clean Energy Council(Australia),American Clean Power,Canadian Renewable Energy Association CanREAPublished28 August 2023Designlemonbox www.lemonbox.co.ukGLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCILGWEC.NETForeword 2R
5、ebecca WilliamsHead of Global Offshore Wind,Global Wind Energy CouncilThe 2023 Global Offshore Wind Report marks a new frontier in the global growth of offshore wind.Our analysis shows that over 380 GW of offshore wind capacity,across 32 markets,is predicted to be added in the next ten years.There a
6、re plans in place for offshore wind to provide large-scale,renewable energy in every continent in the world,save for Antarctica.This is excellent news for the planet and an increasing number of communities that want clean,reliable electricity to power lives,develop local economies and boost industri
7、al growth and jobs.For the 2023 edition,we are launching the report at the inaugural GWEC Asia Pacific Offshore Wind and Green Hydrogen Summit in Australia.This new,annual event recognises the huge offshore wind opportunity for the Asia Pacific(APAC)region.Indeed,our report shows that nearly half of
8、 all offshore wind installed worldwide in the next ten years will be in this region,from an ever-greater number of new offshore wind markets.As more countries in APAC pledge to work towards carbon neutrality,there is a growing demand for renewable energy sources,such as offshore wind.Whilst China co
9、ntinues to be the biggest single market in the region,we are forecasting capacity additions in an increasingly diversified set of markets.Our outlook shows more than 180 GW capacity of offshore wind project pipeline identified outside of China.This year alone,we have so far seen important breakthrou
10、ghs in several markets:Bangladesh announced plans for its first ever offshore wind project;Vietnam published the Power Development Plan 8,that sets an offshore wind target of 6 GW by 2030 and 7091.5 GW by 2050;South Korea granted over 20.8 GW of offshore wind electricity business licences(EBL)and is
11、 developing a dual-track system for offshore wind development;and the Philippines is moving towards its first Green Energy Procurement auction for offshore,which could be as early as next year;from humble offshore wind beginnings,Australia now has a pipeline of 50 GW of capacity,with the event host
12、city,Melbourne,in the state of Victoria,recognised as the epicentre of the Australian offshore wind industry.The central challenge governments and industry now face in this region is realising this potential.APAC is poised for growth but the market alone will not deliver in its current state.Achievi
13、ng the rollout of offshore wind at this scale in the APAC region will require unprecedented collaboration and cooperation between governments and industry.While the stage may be set for APAC growth,in both Europe and the US Welcome to the Global Offshore Wind Report 2023Achieving the rollout of offs
14、hore wind at this scale in the APAC region will require unprecedented collaboration and cooperation between governments and industry.GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022Foreword 3the industry is dealing with some acute growing pains.Challenges such as inflation,increased capital cost and the supply
15、 chain crunch have been brought into sharp relief in markets that have prioritised race-to-the-bottom pricing schemes.Meanwhile,offshore wind projects have been delayed or indefinitely stalled by inadequate and inefficient permitting and licensing rules.These factors have created uncertainty and hav
16、e forced developers to review the viability of their projects,in some cases even to stop developing.Such ineffective policies centred on a downward price competition and,where coupled with impractical and unattainable local content stipulations,will add to project costs and slow the pace of offshore
17、 wind deployment needed for the world to meet net zero.At the same time,GWEC analysis shows that by the mid-2020s there may be supply chain bottlenecks in every region of the world except China.Immediate investment and global cooperation will be needed to address these bottlenecks.Restrictive trade
18、and investment policies and calls to decouple from Chinas supply chain may risk delaying the global energy transition.The headwinds faced by the sector are symptomatic of policy and financing environments that are no longer fit for purpose as the world works towards a 1.5C pathway where wind generat
19、es one-fifth of the worlds electricity by 2030 and two-thirds by 2050.The UAE COP Presidency,IEA and IRENA are now leading countries to align behind the ambitious aim of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030,to around 11 TW ahead of COP28.This target would send a serious message that countries
20、are prepared to make sure their energy objectives are aligned with climate goals,providing the basis for policy action that could accelerate deployment of offshore wind power.The setting of this target,and the evidence of the headwinds faced by the sector,shows that the time has come to take a new,s
21、impler approach to policy for offshore wind.Such an approach should prioritise the delivery of large volumes of offshore wind,supported by incentive-based industrial policies to deliver the socio-economic benefits the world now expects from the industry.It is evident that scaling offshore wind will
22、require shared problem-solving to find effective policy solutions across the sector,including crucially how we scale the global supply chain.The key message here is that achieving the necessary growth in offshore wind energy production cannot rely on protectionist policies that isolate domestic mark
23、ets.Our message is clear:We need partnership,not protectionism.Collaborative efforts between industry and governments will be essential to addressing these challenges.The establishment of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance,a multi-stakeholder and diplomatically led initiative,signifies the industrys
24、commitment to public-private partnership.By working together,the industry and governments can create an environment that fosters innovation,investment and the development of a robust offshore wind supply chain.This approach is essential to meet the growing global demand for clean energy and make a s
25、ignificant positive impact on both the energy transition and environmental goals.GWEC analysis shows that by the mid-2020s there may be supply chain bottlenecks in every region of the world except ChinaSponsor 4The world is changing rapidly:last year was one of the most challenging in the energy sec
26、tor.While we were recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,different geopolitical movements,including a war in Europe that triggered an energy crisis,further increased the political willingness to accelerate renewables deployment as the right and only way forward.However,it is necessary
27、to act now to create the conditions required for this transition to happen.For several decades the wind industry has demonstrated its ability,flexibility and resilience to create wealth and a sustainable future for society.We should continue working together to overcome the short-term challenges and
28、 to deliver on these big ambitions.Thanks to the huge effort of all the actors,in the last 15 years offshore wind has proven it is able to deliver large amounts of green energy at a reasonable and affordable cost,becoming a key piece of decarbonisation plans worldwide.By the end of last year,the wor
29、ld had more than 60 GW of operational offshore wind capacity,with almost 9 GW installed in 2022 alone.This is the second-best annual deployment figure in offshore wind history and represents more than 10%of the total wind capacity installed in 2022.We expect offshore wind installations to continue i
30、ncreasing significantly in the near future.Despite current difficulties,such as supply chain constraints,inflation and high interest rates among others,we will probably see several projects being delivered between 2023 and 2025.To ensure we can continue delivering sustainable growth for the industry
31、 post-2025,the sector and policymakers should invest all their efforts today in paving the way for the decisions we need to take in the short term.Offshore wind energy is a capital-intensive solution that requires regulatory stability and long-term predictability in order to unlock the necessary inv
32、estment.Special attention should be paid to supply chain resilience and preparedness.Major investments in supply chain capabilities and equipment will be required to meet growth targets.This will bring massive positive returns in the economy but will only happen if suitable frameworks are in place t
33、o give the right long-term signals for these investments.If no action is taken,the supply chain will face serious disruptions from 2026,as this report outlines.Equal consideration should be given to attracting and developing talent already a key factor for delivering the overall objectives of the en
34、ergy transition.Being mindful of price and cost pressure on consumers and the supply chain,designing the right auction processes to award sites becomes paramount for achieving the sectors goals.We should question whether the Alvaro Martinez PalacioManaging Director,Offshore Wind,IberdrolaOffshore wi
35、nd energy is a capital-intensive solution that requires regulatory stability and long-term predictability in order to unlock the necessary investment.Delivering on the big ambitions of global offshore wind 5GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023uncapped negative bidding schemes currently running in s
36、ome countries will threaten offshore wind growth targets.These schemes impose significant additional costs on projects and heighten pressure on the supply chain,leading to higher electricity prices and increasing the risk of delaying project investment decisions.Facilitating onshore and offshore gri
37、d development,designing seabed allocation mechanisms that focus on project delivery and streamlining permitting processes are key enablers for deploying our ambitious goals.Recent market volatility also calls for price risk reduction in auctions,for example,through indexation to inflation and commod
38、ities,to ensure faster and timely construction of projects.At the same time,discussions should shift from cost to value by designing frameworks that promote solutions involving generators and offtakers.This will boost the advantages that offshore wind can offer by contributing to sustainable transfo
39、rmation of the economy.Over 20 years ago,Iberdrola anticipated that wind energy would be a key driver for future power systems.Since then,it has been committed to the wind sector and the energy transition.Fifteen years ago,the company entered the offshore wind market.We can now say that these were t
40、he right decisions.Thanks to its vision,by the end of 2022 Iberdrola had 1.4 GW of offshore wind capacity in operation,more than 3 GW under construction,an additional 14 GW of sites secured and more than 20 GW under development.More recently,Iberdrola decided to expand its onshore and offshore wind
41、activities to the Asia Pacific region and is currently developing offshore projects in Japan,Taiwan and Australia,bringing together its experience in other markets and its existing local footprint.We believe this region can become a key growth area for the offshore wind sector,and the authorities ar
42、e making great efforts to create suitable frameworks to promote the necessary investments.There is no doubt that offshore wind energy will play a key role in the decarbonisation of all sectors of the economy with its mature,cost-competitive and reliable energy.Collaboration is crucial to achieving t
43、he increase in pace of installations described in this report.The industry needs to keep working together with the support of GWEC to engage with governments and communities globally in creating an enabling environment to foster growth for the offshore wind sector.Sponsor 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7GWEC|GL
44、OBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023Executive SummaryMarket status Feeding 8.8 GW of new offshore wind into the grid 58%lower than the bumper year of 2021 still made 2022 the second highest year in history for offshore wind installations.The 8.8 GW of new installations brings the total global offshore win
45、d power capacity to 64.3 GW,showing year-on-year(YoY)growth of 16%and representing 7%of global cumulative offshore wind installations.China continued to lead global offshore wind development,although its new installations dropped to 5 GW from 21 GW in 2021 which was a record year driven by the end o
46、f the feed-in tariff(FiT).Two other markets reported new offshore wind installations in Asia-Pacific last year:Chinese Taiwan(1,175 MW)and Japan(84 MW).No intertidal(nearshore)wind projects achieved commercial operation in Vietnam in 2022.This was due to the absence of a ceiling price until January
47、2023 to be used by Vietnam Electricity(EVN)to negotiate PPAs with investors for their renewable projects.Europe connected the remaining 2.5 GW of capacity in 2022,with France and Italy each commissioning their first commercial offshore wind projects.Despite the rate of installations last year being
48、the lowest since 2016,Europes total offshore wind capacity reached 30 GW,46%of which is from the UK.With total installed offshore wind capacity reaching 34 GW in Asia-Pacific in 2022,Europe relinquished its title as the worlds largest offshore wind market.Nevertheless,Europe continues to lead the wa
49、y in floating wind.Norway commissioned 60 MW of floating wind capacity last year,bringing the regions total installations to 171 MW,equal to 91%of global installations,followed by Asia-Pacific(16.7 MW,or 9%of global market share).Outside Europe and Asia-Pacific,North America has 42 MW of offshore wi
50、nd in operation as of the end of last year,contributing 0.1%of total offshore wind installations.Market outlook The need to ensure secure and affordable energy supplies while meeting climate targets has propelled wind power development into a new phase of ever faster growth.Challenges such as inflat
51、ion,increased capital cost and a supply chain crunch have created uncertainty and forced developers to review the viability of their projects even,in some cases,to terminate their offtake contracts and stop developing projects expected to be built in the next five years.But the global offshore wind
52、market outlook in the medium and long term,from 2028,still looks promising.With a compound average annual growth rate(CAGR)of 31%to 2027 and 12%to 2032,new installations are expected to sail past the The Data:2022 was the offshore wind industrys second-best yearFeng ZhaoHead of Strategy and Market I
53、ntelligence,Global Wind Energy Council2022 the second highest year in history for offshore wind installations.GWEC.NET 8Executive Summarymilestones of 30 GW in 2026 and 50 GW by 2030.GWEC Market Intelligence expects that over 380 GW of new offshore wind capacity will be added over the next decade(20
54、23-2032),bringing total offshore wind capacity to 447 GW by the end of 2032.However,only one-third of this projected new volume will be added in 2023-2027,in part because challenging market conditions have pushed back offshore wind development in Europe and the US in the near term.Annual offshore wi
55、nd installation capacity is expected to quadruple in 2028 from 8.8 GW in 2022 and pass 60 GW in 2032,bringing its share of global new offshore wind installations from 11%in 2022 to 30%by 2032.Although the global floating offshore wind pipeline doubled in the past 12 months,topping 240 GW,GWEC Market
56、 Intelligence still predicts that floating offshore wind will not reach commercialisation until 2030.Taking into account the higher cost of floating wind energy,current challenging economic and financial conditions and expected supply chain bottlenecks in floating wind foundations and port facilitie
57、s,we have downgraded our global floating wind forecast to 10.9 GW by 2030,42%lower than the previous years projection.GWEC Market Intelligences near-term outlook(2023-2027)is primarily based on the existing global offshore project pipeline of projects under construction and in the different stages o
58、f development across the globe.Our medium-term outlook(2028-2032)reflects current declared national and regional targets.Given the energy system reform packages still underway in Europe and other regions in response to Russias invasion of Ukraine as well as calls for radical action on climate change
59、,it is highly likely that these targets will increase further.Our ten-year forecast could be revised upward next year as a result.However,the last 12 months saw a growing implementation gap between declared targets and the rate of annual installations.To accommodate an exponential growth in offshore
60、 wind installations and a consequent acceleration of the global energy transition,decisive action on leasing,permitting,market design,supply chain,infrastructure including grid and port facilities as well as regional collaboration remain of crucial importance.9GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023It
61、 is essential that the amount of seabed available for development is aligned with global long-term climate(and offshore wind)targets.Executive SummaryThe outlook for the offshore wind sector,as it seeks to fulfil its major role in electrifying and decarbonising energy systems,can best be described a
62、s exhilarating and challenging in equal measure.Global opportunities and challenges are manifold,but both are faced the pressure of time and scale in the fight against climate change.Under scenarios outlined by the worlds leading energy institutions,including the International Agency Energy(IEA)and
63、the International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA),achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 a commitment shared by a majority of countries and conglomerates will call for rapid and tremendous growth in offshore wind installed capacity.The IEAs latest roadmap requires offshore wind annual installations to g
64、row ninefold,from 8.8 GW in 2022 to 80 GW by 2030,with 70 GW to be deployed every year between 2031 and 2050.IRENA foresees nearly 500 GW of cumulative offshore wind installed capacity by 2030 in its latest 1.5C-compliant scenario,and nearly 2,500 GW by 2050.There is plenty of activity across market
65、s worldwide.New offshore wind installations are expected to sail past the milestones of 30 GW in 2026 and 50 GW by 2030.The sector will reach a compound average annual growth rate(CAGR)of 31%until 2027 and 12%up to the early 2030s.True acceleration for floating projects will not be seen before 2030.
66、Although the global floating offshore wind pipeline doubled in the past 12 months,topping 240 GW,GWEC Market Intelligence predicts that due to the higher cost of floating wind energy,current challenging economic and financial conditions,and supply chain bottlenecks in foundations and port facilities
67、 only 10.9 GW is likely to be built globally by 2030,which is 42%less than the previous years projection.Early success factorsA number of crucial elements have to fall into place if exponential offshore wind growth is to be achieved.This starts with the very beginning of the process,when seabed is l
68、eased to developers for offshore wind development.It is essential that the amount of seabed available for development is aligned with global long-term climate(and offshore wind)targets.A successful leasing model will facilitate collaboration between the public and private sectors from the get-go whi
69、le crucially working in harmony with wider priorities such as clean power production,economic growth,social value creation,job generation and energy security.Leasing frameworks should emphasise both the short-term and long-term impacts of leasing fees and allocation,so that revenues for governments
70、are not generated at the expense of energy costs for consumers or unsustainable pressure on supply chains.A dedicated leasing authority that takes the lead on managing stakeholder conflicts and maritime spatial planning(MSP)concerns will streamline processes and promote efficient operations.Before a
71、n offshore wind farm can be built,all the necessary permits need to be in place.These can take developers up to nine years to The Story:Accelerating Offshore Wind 10Executive Summaryobtain,as a global average,which can lock projects into outdated technology by the time construction begins.Fast-track
72、 procedures that limit maximum lead times for permitting and simplify the process are being introduced in the EU through the RePowerEU plan,in response to the energy crisis.The goal is for member states to commit to identifying renewable acceleration areas where permitting processes are streamlined
73、and shortened.Another important step forward would be wider adoption of the so-called one-stop-shop(OSS)approach already used in mature European markets like Denmark,the UK and the Netherlands guaranteeing not only shorter lead times for the consenting process but also a reduction in uncertainties a
74、nd delays.Creating social and economic valueDiscussions on energy policy and the security of supply are often bogged down by arguments focusing exclusively on costs.While the cost profile of offshore wind is already favourable in comparison with fossil fuels,pursuing the cheap angle is a dangerous a
75、pproach.Current market design and procurement often encourage a race to the bottom on wind pricing.This,coupled with inflationary pressures and auction price caps,has led to a squeeze on profitability for the wind industry that threatens the very ambitious installation goals it is being asked to del
76、iver.Offshore winds true benefits are best evaluated with a holistic socioeconomic lens.To this end,governments and the industry have to work together to review market design and offtake mechanisms to ensure a balance between the need for affordable energy,delivery of wider socioeconomic benefits,an
77、d a sustainable supply chain.When employing non-price criteria,including local content requirements,governments need to be aware of the bigger picture and avoid overly prescriptive requirements and restrictive trade practices that risk stifling investment.An incentive-based approach such as the long
78、-term investment and tax credits under the USAs Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)will give the industry confidence to overcome challenges and scale up.Another significant societal benefit that offshore wind brings is the creation of long-term highly skilled jobs.Already in 2022,the clean energy labour fo
79、rce outnumbered employees in the fossil fuel sector,according to the IEA.Local,sustainable opportunities for a diverse workforce will grow exponentially as offshore wind deployment surges.The grand challenge to connect wind farmsWidespread electrification of homes and businesses is reliant not only
80、on sufficient amounts of renewable energy but also on adequate grid connections.A common challenge for large offshore wind markets is how to scale up connections involving both the physical volume of offshore and onshore cables and the necessary infrastructure,while reducing wait times for connectio
81、ns.Earlier this year,Dutch state-owned transmission system operator TenneT awarded 11 contracts for North Sea offshore wind project connections for a combined value of$25 billion.Other similar projects are currently in the offtaking stage,but because the majority of larger projects are likely to be
82、located further offshore,grid connections risk becoming a major bottleneck.Energy islands,meshed grids,larger-capacity and superconductive cables are all being explored as 11GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023possible solutions.The bottom line remains that the fundamental building block of offshor
83、e wind is a reliable grid system.A fit-for-purpose supply chainEqually critical is the issue of equipment availability.Supply chains are stretched in many parts of the world.Starting in 2027,we expect Europes offshore wind turbine nacelle assembly capacity to struggle to cope with the growth expecte
84、d in Europe alone.In the US and APAC excluding China,it is imperative that announced investments in nacelle assembly quickly materialise as production capacity if demand towards the latter part of this decade is to be met.A delicate balance between demand and supply exists for key turbine components
85、 in 20232025,with gaps expected to emerge in the second half of this decade if no further investments are made.With China controlling more than 70%of the global market share for gearboxes,generators,slewing bearings,castings,forgings,towers and flanges,restrictive trade policies proposed by the EU a
86、nd the US are almost certain to create bottlenecks.The demand for large offshore wind turbine installation vessels(WTIVs)towards the end of the decade,coupled with a trained workforce with adequate operational knowhow,requires regional cooperation in the APAC region to ensure timely deployment.This
87、cooperation is especially crucial in new markets such as India,the Philippines,Australia and New Zealand.In the US,where Jones Act-compliant WTIVs will be needed,only one is under construction.Plans for new vessels will have to be executed in the next two years to deliver on the Biden Administration
88、s ambition of 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030.Meeting great expectationsOffshore wind is a fast-growing sector with a great future ahead and some big challenges to overcome.Floating offshore wind,in particular,is still very much in its infancy and faces a steep learning curve as it looks to scale up
89、from a handful of demonstration projects to gigawatt-scale developments.There is no limit to the contribution that offshore wind can make to the energy transition,nor is there any shortage of ambition on the part of the industry.The threat lies in the growing gap between stated targets and annual in
90、stallations and the even wider gap between the current pace of growth and 1.5C-compatible volumes of deployment.All of the elements outlined in this years Global Offshore Wind Report must come together to enable the sector to deliver on these great expectations.GWEC.NET 12The government of Denmark,I
91、RENA and GWEC founded the Global Offshore Wind Alliance(GOWA)in September 2022 to drive the uptake of offshore wind through political mobilisation and the creation of a global community of practice.GOWA aims to contribute to achieving a global offshore wind capacity of at least 380 GW by 2030 and 2,
92、000 GW by 2050,with 35 GW being deployed on average each year through the 2020s and a minimum of 70 GW annually from 2030.GOWA envisions offshore wind making a significant contribution to the energy transition and the achievement of the sustainable development goals through large-scale renewable pow
93、er generation benefiting regions,nations and critical sectors such as industry and transport.To benefit from the substantial potential and opportunities deriving from offshore wind,it is pivotal that governments,private-sector actors,international organisations and other relevant stakeholders work t
94、ogether to remove the barriers to scaling up investment and supply chains.GOWA is a multi-stakeholder,diplomatic and workstream-based initiative that has public-private partnership as its guiding principle.GOWA will work to:l Raise ambition crucially ambition for implementation for offshore wind amo
95、ngst governments and other public and private stakeholders.l Support the creation of policy frameworks and efficient offshore wind value chains to bring new and existing markets to maturity through,for example,the sharing of best practices and capacity building.l Create an international community of
96、 practice to drive action on offshore wind deployment as a key to achieving 1.5C pathways.l Work together as a multi-stakeholder group that supports the role offshore wind will play in a renewables-led energy transition.To support countries as they seek to develop offshore wind,GOWA will address the
97、 major building blocks for the sector,such as framework conditions,financial de-risking,system integration and economic benefits.These are all important drivers to reduce costs,ensure competitive market prices and create project pipelines at country and regional level.The Global Wind Energy Alliance
98、(GOWA)Australia Belgium Colombia DenmarkGermanyIreland JapanThe NetherlandsNorway Portugal Spain St Lucia State of VictoriaUKUSA At the time of writing,GOWA has 14 country members:GOWA will address the major building blocks for the sector,such as framework conditions,financial de-risking,system inte
99、gration and economic benefitsGOWA 13GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023PART 1:OFFSHORE WIND ENABLERSSupporting SponsorGWEC.NETOffshore wind flourishes in an environment with long-term system planning,where policies and regulations are aligned to deliver clear objectives.A lack of suitable project
100、sites has been cited as a major obstacle to the rapid scale-up of offshore wind.This underlines the importance of leasing,the process that determines how much seabed will be allocated to offshore wind development.The term leasing encompasses the contractual process of granting seabed rights for offs
101、hore wind development and operation.Leasing processes are overseen by the designated seabed authority.While approaches vary depending on the market,they are procedurally based on a framework that is adapted to national preferences.Leasing terminology varies between markets;leasing is also often refe
102、rred to as a concession.A well-executed leasing framework must ensure a steady pipeline of projects and aim to attract the participation of experienced actors(suppliers,investors,developers)to the market.These actors will bring valuable expertise,resources and extensive market knowledge to develop s
103、uccessful projects and be key facilitators in the global expansion of the offshore wind sector.GWEC finds that,when establishing a successful leasing framework,the incorporation of pragmatic Marine Spatial Planning(MSP)processes can significantly enhance an efficient rollout of offshore wind deploym
104、ent.Not only do MSP frameworks play a crucial role in managing marine spaces and resources;they can also address upstream environmental and social considerations ensuring a holistic approach to offshore activities,generating a sustainable blue economy.1 The early engagement of stakeholders in the MS
105、P process can mitigate potential future conflict and strike a balance between various sectoral priorities.2MSP can serve as a valuable tool for effective implementation of national climate targets,ensuring that the target setting process explicitly considers the requirements for scaling up ocean ene
106、rgy.By aligning MSP with climate objectives,countries can strategically plan and allocate seabed areas to support the growth of offshore wind whilst also remaining compatible with climate commitments.3 14Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersLeasingLegislating national climate targetsConduct pragmaticand pro
107、portional MSPEstablish leasing authorityDetermine leasing and revenue supportstructurePut in place relevantlegislationImplement first leasing competition123456Leasing framework milestones1.World Bank.2022.https:/documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0998702/pdf/IDU0afe34d600494f04ee009e8c0e
108、df0292c1a96.pdf2.IOC-UNESCO/European Commission,2022.https:/www.mspglobal2030.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/MSProadmap2022-2027.pdf3.IRENA and OEE.2023.https:/www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Mar/Scaling-up-investments-in-ocean-energy-technologiesGWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 15Leasing frame
109、work milestones:1.Raise the political priority of climate action by legislating national climate targets that account for offshore wind sector growth,e.g.,developing a national offshore wind strategy2.Conduct pragmatic and proportional MSP to designate suitable areas for development with high wind r
110、esource and management of potential stakeholder conflict3.Establish leasing authority4.Determine preferred approach to leasing and revenue support5.Put into place relevant legislation6.Implement first leasing competitionDifferences in approach Offshore wind markets have evolved to conform to two pri
111、mary frameworks:a centralised,one-stage approach,and a decentralised,two-stage approach.These frameworks are not rigidly followed,and the USA and Taiwan have adopted a hybrid framework.In the centralised framework,one process is used to secure the seabed lease and the power purchase arrangements.The
112、 government will conduct surveys to determine site feasibility,complete an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment(ESIA)and gain consent for project development.The government has the authority to specify wind farm sites and certain design elements.This approach has been adopted in Germany,Denmar
113、k and the Netherlands.In the decentralised framework,the government will use MSP to identify large areas within which to conduct the leasing rounds.The developer will then decide project siting,conduct site surveying and the ESIA,and gain project consent all of which incur extra cost.This approach h
114、as been used in the UK.Each model offers some advantages,depending on the desired goals of the leasing round.Under a centralised model,the government has more control over project planning but could expose developers to a higher degree of policy risk or interference.There is also a risk that governm
115、ents may not be adequately resourced to undertake the complex technical functions required to implement the centralised model successfully.Experienced developers may be better positioned to make informed decisions regarding project How leases are allocatedA designated body should be responsible for
116、the tender and award of seabed leases.In Denmark,for example,it is the Danish Energy Agency(DEA),while in the US it is the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management(BOEM).Leases are awarded through three main models:non-competitive,competitive,and open-door.Non-competitive leasing models can be employed for
117、 pilot projects and in emerging markets.The seabed authority can directly grant the lease to the developer through negotiation.Competitive leasing models,where developers bid in a competitive tender overseen by the seabed authority and the lease is awarded to the most suitable bidder,have been adopt
118、ed by some markets as they mature.The US,the Netherlands,the UK and Germany all use competitive leasing models.There are two further competitive bidding processes:competitive auction and competitive bilateral bidding.The open-door model allows developers to freely submit lease applications for desig
119、nated seabed areas at their discretion.This approach was pioneered by Denmark4 but has since been put on hold pending a review of EU law.The designated body is responsible for assessing the individual bids/applications from developers against a predetermined set of criteria that vary by market but t
120、ypically include financial elements such as highest seabed bid or lowest strike price.As more developers have entered the market,solely financial criteria are shifting to include more qualitative metrics.4.https:/ens.dk/en/our-responsibilities/wind-power/offshore-procedures-permitsGWEC.NET 16Offshor
121、e Wind Enablersdevelopment and the associated risk.A decentralised approach may be more appealing as developers are given the freedom to make more project decisions.When deciding on an approach,there is a constant balance to be struck between where the risk is placed and who is best placed to carry
122、this risk.Policy recommendations GWEC sees the urgent need for an alignment of the amount of seabed leased with long-term climate targets.For a Paris-compliant net zero by 2050 scenario,IRENA estimates that fixed and floating offshore wind must scale up from its current 64.3 GW capacity to 380 GW by
123、 2030 en route to 2 TW in 2050.Leasing must involve a collaborative effort between the public and private sectors.Early dialogue should aim to create a transparent and visible leasing framework,ensuring that the needs of the private sector and the abilities of the public sector are taken into accoun
124、t.A leasing framework that is attractive to developers will engage the participation of experienced actors(suppliers,investors,developers)that bring valuable expertise,resources and extensive market knowledge to develop successful projects and be key facilitators in the global expansion of the offsh
125、ore wind sector.Choosing a leasing model requires careful deliberation on the short-term and long-term consequences associated with leasing fees and allocation.Leasing frameworks should emphasise comprehensive lease term evaluations.An uncapped competitive auction,for example,may increase short-term
126、 revenues for the government but can increase the cost of energy to consumers and cause financial pressures for supply chain stability.Leasing terms should take into account coherent government priorities.Development of the offshore wind sector can encourage economic growth,create jobs and enhance e
127、nergy security.Having an open dialogue between stakeholders can ensure that leasing frameworks function in harmony with these wider priorities.As part of a successful leasing process,GWEC recommends the integration of pragmatic and proportional MSP to aid the achievement of an efficient rollout of o
128、ffshore wind deployment by mitigating environmental and social concerns through better interaction with stakeholders;implementing national climate targets;and designating sites with the best wind resources.The establishment of a dedicated leasing authority to proactively address any stakeholder mana
129、gement issues in the marine space is essential.Creating a specialised body that grants consent and manages conflict ensures an efficient operation and can streamline the process.GWEC recommends the integration of pragmatic and proportional MSP to aid the achievement of an efficient rollout of offsho
130、re windGWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 17Globally,offshore wind projects typically take up to nine years to move from the early development stage to full commissioning.The bulk of this time is spent in the permitting and consenting stage,with timelines extending even further when there are bar
131、riers or delays in the permitting process.Generally,once permitted,large-scale offshore wind projects can be constructed very quickly typically in two years,depending on the project size.6Elongated permitting timeframes can result in projects reaching the construction stage with outdated technology
132、in their plans,including wind turbine models that are no longer manufactured at optimal scale.If a developer applies to modify the original project design in order to use newer technology,it runs the risk of further delays.Done right,effective permitting regimes can unlock significant amounts of off
133、shore wind capacity,enabling it to contribute to economic growth,as well as to the provision of large-scale,homegrown clean electricity.Holistic approaches to permitting can also help capture benefits and opportunities related to biodiversity and nature conservation,ensuring the wind industry contin
134、ues to lead in delivering positive socioeconomic outcomes for all communities.One way to reduce maximum lead times to permit offshore wind is through fast-track procedures.The European Commission has introduced the RePowerEU plan in response to the energy crisis,which calls for renewable energy proj
135、ects permitting to be“drastically accelerated”.To that end,member states will design dedicated“renewable acceleration areas”with shortened and simplified permitting processes.Land,sea or inland waters areas would be chosen because they are particularly suitable for specific renewable energy technolo
136、gies and present lower risks for the environment.Protected areas should be avoided,for example.For renewable acceleration areas,the EU Council and European Parliament came to a provisional agreement on 30 March 2023 allowing three years for Permitting6.Joint Statement by the Global Wind Energy Counc
137、il and the Global Solar Council on the Occasion of the G20 Investment Forum on Energy Transition(2022)https:/ Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 18GWEC.NET 18offshore projects and two years for onshore projects,including environmental impact assessments.In designated“renewable acceleration areas”
138、,the deadlines are reduced by one year and,in principle,no environmental impact assessment is required.In duly justified extraordinary circumstances,the period may be extended by up to six months.To reduce lead times for offshore permitting,countries are exploring more innovative and newer supportin
139、g schemes.The UK has been exerting efforts to shorten the permitting time.Announced in June 2023,the Offshore Wind Environmental Improvement Package(OWEIP)aims to support the accelerated deployment of offshore wind by reducing consenting time from up to four years to one year.The concept of a One-St
140、op-Shop(OSS)a single contact point for a smooth and administratively lean process from consenting through to decommissioning has long been used in mature European markets like Denmark,the UK and the Netherlands.The OSS for project permitting not only speeds up the consenting process,but also reduces
141、 uncertainties and delays.Long-term planning,alongside a stable and supportive policy framework,has been fundamental to the success of Danish offshore wind development.The Danish Energy Agency(DEA)runs offshore wind tenders through an open-door-procedure.7 The project developer takes the initiative
142、to establish an offshore wind farm.The first step is for the project developer to submit an application for a license to carry out preliminary investigations in the given area.The application must,as a minimum,include a description of the project,the anticipated scope of the preliminary investigatio
143、ns,the size and number of turbines,and the limits of the projects geographical siting.In an open-door project,the developer is responsible for covering the costs of connecting the grid to land.As part of the OSS concept,the DEA initiates a hearing of other government bodies to clarify whether there
144、are other major public interests that could block the project before processing an application.Based on the result of the hearing,the DEA decides whether the area in the application can be developed,and in the event of a positive decision,it issues an approval for the applicant to carry out prelimin
145、ary investigations,including an ESIA.Electricity produced by offshore wind farms under the open-door-procedure will receive a price premium of 25 re/kWh($0.36/kWh)on top of the market price the same as onshore wind.If the market price added to the subsidy exceeds 58 re/kWh the subsidy will be reduce
146、d accordingly.While the open-door policy has created great opportunities for developers in acquiring offshore wind projects,the Danish government decided in June 2023 to suspend projects under this scheme,fearing it may breach EU rules.The countrys new marine plan will not allocate space for future
147、offshore wind farms under the open-door scheme,effectively shelving the majority of projects.A total of 33 projects were under assessment as part of the scheme.Nine of the pending open-door projects had previously been assessed as approved,however the remaining 24 will be denied a preliminary invest
148、igation permit.Case study:Denmarks open-door policy 7.https:/ens.dk/en/our-responsibilities/wind-power/offshore-procedures-permitsPart 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 19GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 19In December 2021,Spain published a Roadmap for the developmen
149、t of offshore wind and marine energy in Spain,which lays the foundations for a state-level framework for the orderly deployment of offshore renewables that highlights three key elements:spatial planning,grid connection and business model.The roadmap promotes the use of marine spatial planning(MSP)to
150、 catalyse permitting activities.It also supports coordinating the access and connection framework and new grid management models and adapting the administrative framework for the permitting of offshore renewable installations.In June 2022,the Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Ch
151、allenge(MITECO)launched a public consultation on the design of the regulatory framework for offshore wind and marine energy facilities.The aim of the consultation was to engage,from day one,public and private agents,the wind and offshore energy sector and the other sectors that use the sea for their
152、 activities,including fishing,aquaculture and navigation.Spains Maritime Spatial Planning,approved in March 2023 through Royal Decree 150/2023,identifies the most suitable marine areas for the future development of offshore wind farms at the same time as integrating general interest planning objecti
153、ves,horizontal multi-sectoral objectives and seeking sectoral convergences and synergies.This complex MSP exercise was achieved through a highly participatory process.All the ministerial departments with sectoral responsibilities in the marine environment,the coastal Autonomous Regions,representativ
154、es of all involved sectors and civil society contributed.The process resulted in the use of MSP(POEM by its Spanish acronym)as a zoning instrument,identifying the most suitable areas for the development of offshore wind energy based on technical and environmental feasibility.Additionally,future elec
155、trical evacuation electricity exports from the offshore wind farms through coastal evacuation nodes in the vicinity of the relevant areas have been considered in the Electricity Transmission Network(ETN)plans for 2021-2026 and will be covered in more detail in the next ETN planning cycle.Case study:
156、Spains use of MSP Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 20Costa Rica does not have a dedicated one-stop shop for processing offshore wind projects but has developed a similar platform for energy projects of national interest,known as the Ventanilla nica de Inversin(VUI),or single investment window.B
157、usinesses can use the digital VUI to submit their application,request a construction permit and submit environmental assessments,among others.The platform has drastically reduced the processing time for permits from 406 to approximately 3545 days.Costa Rica has committed to leveraging this platform
158、for offshore wind projects and will be engaging with relevant stakeholders and investors in the near future.Case study:A single contact point in Costa Rica 20In Denmark,the Act on Promotion of Renewable Energy defines the rules,requirements and procedures for issuing licences for offshore wind devel
159、opment.According to the Act,the Danish Energy Agency(DEA)has the mandate to both plan and issue permits for offshore wind projects within territorial waters and Denmarks Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ).The permit compiles information from all relevant authorities,with the DEA championing the project th
160、rough the permitting process.DEA prepares and grants the required licences through an iterative process involving contributions from other authorities in order to mitigate conflicting interests.Once the concession is granted,the DEA remains a single point of contact for developers requiring assistan
161、ce on issues related to the granted licenses and procedures.Learning from European best practices,other countries are now starting to adopt this approach.In 2022,Brazil introduced an OSS system through an information portal that manages offshore areas used for power generation.Similarly,8.https:/www
162、.evoss.ph/Home/About#:text=The%20Energy%20Virtual%20One%20Stop,involved%20in%20the%20approval%20process.21GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 21GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022In the Netherlands,the upcoming permit that will be granted for the 4 GW offshore wind project IJmuiden Ver will incl
163、ude criteria to stimulate circularity and international responsible business conduct.The Netherlands is drafting a legislative amendment to include these criteria in future permits for offshore wind farms.The criteria for responsible business conduct will align with UN principles for human rights an
164、d business and OECD guidelines for multinational enterprises suggesting that companies perform human rights and environmental due diligence for their international activities,including in their supply chain.Companies are urged to take action in multi-stakeholder cooperation to prevent or mitigate ri
165、sks,implement a complaint mechanism and report publicly on their due diligence processes.For circularity,the criteria will be in line with the EUs Sustainable Product Initiative,enabling governments to introduce product requirements concerning recyclability,reusability,lifetime extension,phasing out
166、 of hazardous substances and the level of secondary and renewable resources used when manufacturing new products.The European Commission is working on introducing legislation and regulations for responsible business conduct and circularity.The Netherlands is anticipating this legislation by already
167、including these criteria in its offshore wind permits.Case study:Innovative permitting scheme in the Netherlandsthe Philippines issued an executive order in 2021 to implement the Energy Virtual One-Stop Shop(EVOSS)8,an online platform to coordinate data and information for energy project application
168、s.In Vietnam,an OSS model has been proposed,grounded in the National Steering Committee on Marine Economic Development established in 2020,chaired by the prime minister.South Koreas National Assembly has been discussing since May 2021 a proposed OSS Bill to make progress on the current system,which
169、requires offshore wind developers to spend up to ten years or longer consulting 29 pieces of law across ten ministries.However,this Bill remained in draft form due to the fishing communitys concerns and opposition.Two new OSS bills were proposed in February 2023 by the ruling Peoples Power Party(PPP
170、)and the Democratic Party(DP).They outline the governments intent to move to a centralised system but are lacking sufficient information and clarity regarding site selection and allocation of offshore wind projects.GWEC hopes that the South Korean government will soon come up with suitable schemes t
171、o ensure the co-existence of offshore wind farms and fishery and enhance the clarity of the two Bills.Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 22Growing Pains:The status of the wind industry in 2023Major western OEMs in the wind sector have faced a profitability crunch over the last few years,causing t
172、hem to retrench and selectively withdraw from smaller or slower-moving markets.Amid these challenges,they are raising their prices.This is due,in large part,to recent spikes in commodity prices,general inflation across the entire supply chain,high logistics costs and higher interest rates implemente
173、d by central banks to combat higher inflation,together with the realisation that participating in slow-developing markets can tie up crucial human and financial capital with insufficient returns.On the project development side,developers are high grading development efforts and withdrawing from cert
174、ain countries or projects,or even opting out of markets and auctions where they perceive an imbalance in risk versus reward as in recent announcements regarding rsteds withdrawal from Vietnam,Vattenfall Boreas projects in the UK,and the US Avangrid development.There is a massive pool of global and l
175、ocal capital,increasingly driven by climate finance and ESG initiatives,ready to deploy into the offshore wind sector but at the same time there is a lack of properly structured,fully permitted and de-risked projects with viable offtakers.There are many reasons for this lack of bankable projects,but
176、 permitting bottlenecks and inadequate grid infrastructure are at the top of the list.As they seek to combat climate change,countries,regions,companies and financial institutions around the world are setting aggressive net zero and energy transition targets.If business profitability and stability ar
177、e not present in the wind sector,however,these targets will become increasingly unlikely to be met.GWEC believes that the industry is experiencing the growing pains of a large,high capital cost infrastructure that experienced over a decade of heated market growth rather than a real crisis.It is wort
178、h considering a few factors that have led us to this stage,and what other industries have done in the past to manage similar challenges.The industry is still comparatively young All other major,high capital cost infrastructure sectors energy,petrochemicals,mining,ports and others are relatively matu
179、re at 100+years old and therefore benefit from a fairly clear understanding of the needs of the industry by politicians,policymakers and regulators,as well as by the industry players themselves.Regulation&Market DesignGWEC believes that the industry is experiencing the growing pains of a large,high
180、capital cost infrastructure that experienced over a decade of heated market growth rather than a real crisis.23GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023Those sectors have also lived through significant volatility in the past.For example,West Texas crude oil prices have ranged between$17 and$120 per barr
181、el over the last eight years.How do these industries manage within such volatile pricing structures similar to what the wind industry is now facing in terms of supply chain inputs and critical materials?They do several things:l They expect volatility and build those expectations into everything they
182、 do across their value chain through hedging,risk sharing in offtake contracts,supply chain resilience and diversification,sophisticated commodities market monitoring and hedging,and so forth.l Contracts with buyers are often negotiated such that higher prices can be paid to ensure less volatility,a
183、nd/or with price caps and price floors to protect buyers and sellers,respectively.The terms of these contracts swing substantially depending on market conditions(buyers market vs sellers market),but there are almost always elements of risk-sharing between buyers and sellers.While the recent price vo
184、latility may not have been any different from previous periods of volatility,it is the first time that the modern wind industry has been subjected to such volatile conditions.The post-COVID demand surge that caused global logistics and supply chain disruptions was remarkable,and the subsequent invas
185、ion of Ukraine by Russia caused massive disruptions in the global gas market,as well as grain and other markets.Further global logistics bottlenecks made this a“perfect storm”that few,if any,could have predicted.The impacts were devastating globally,especially in emerging markets which are less able
186、 to absorb higher costs for everything from grain to gas.The impact on a young wind industry of such massive disruptions was unpredictable.But the response from the industry was very predictable:pull out of markets and/or projects that are not profitable,rationalise supply chains,increase prices.Thi
187、s is an understandable contraction after a decade of breakneck market growth.As noted in a recent Financial Times article,“developers willingness to get out of unprofitable projects is a sign of discipline as the industry matures but may slow down the pace of the rollout.”However,the world now needs
188、 massive investments in wind to meet net zero commitments and slow climate change.How can the industry work with others to secure an offshore wind project pipeline that can support net zero and other climate targets?And what can we do to move the industry forward onto a more sustainable path where t
189、he industry is supported in accelerating the energy transition,compensated at a reasonable level,and contributing to the public good in numerous ways?Where the industry is today:The industry is comparatively young.As it emerges from global crises,such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine invasio
190、n,it has been significantly impacted by low profitability and challenging markets.As such,it is disciplining itself and Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 24withdrawing from markets and projects that are not attractive or profitable enough.The industry is also examining how it approaches the issu
191、e of ever bigger turbines with the need for economies of scale,and other ways to build in more efficiencies in the value chain.Where it needs to go:Massive amounts of investment are required to meet various net zero and other climate targets.Based on the current projected trajectory of wind installa
192、tions,it is unlikely that many targets will be met.What can be done:There are some conditions that are needed for any large,high capital cost industry to thrive.Key to this is the role of government:Where can it be supportive and productive?When is it best to leave decisions and investments to the p
193、rivate sector?Predictability and visibility:This is critical for any industry,as businesses will invest in supply chains and develop projects when they know there is going to be a relatively constant flow of projects.Reasonable returns:In any industry,businesses want to make reasonable returns for t
194、heir shareholders.They will also expect higher returns when risks are higher,hence a balanced approach to risk-sharing is essential to ensure affordability.There is always a tension between investors,who want reasonable returns,and governments,who desire low prices through approaches like reverse au
195、ctions and energy security(it is uncertain whether auctions deliver this).Compromises will need to be made.Clear route to market for projects:Is it possible to get the necessary business licences and project permits in a reasonable amount of time?Is it clear which permits are required and who can pr
196、ovide them?Are monetisation options through auctions,corporate PPAs or other means clear?Is grid planning advanced enough to provide clarity on when the grid will be ready to connect a project?Consideration of these questions can help create a clear route to market.Essential infrastructure and workf
197、orce:Offshore wind needs grids,ports,transport corridors and supply chain facilities,as well as a skilled and trained workforce to build,operate and maintain wind farms.If these are not available,are there implementation plans with reasonable support and planning from government?Do the plans include
198、 options for private investors to provide the capital?Bankable offtake mechanisms:Are the offtakers be they utilities,corporates or others able to provide viable offtake mechanisms/contracts/PPAs such that the projects can access international finance without undue risk of default,counterparty risk,
199、curtailment and other risks?Tax and other incentives:If governments want to encourage wind and other renewables and storage technologies to meet net zero and other commitments,they may need to provide concrete incentives to attract investments.Think of the USAs Inflation Reduction Act and other ince
200、ntive mechanisms.The role of REPowerEU can also be considered.What happens if every country unrolls an IRA-size industrial policy package?Will it potentially introduce a disincentive for public and private actors to coordinate rather than compete for resources and supply chain investments?This is an
201、 ongoing debate,and while GWEC does not have all the answers today,our approach is to encourage Part 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 25GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023collaboration.Given the public good nature of wind energy and its crucial contributions to a just energy transition,GWEC encourages gov
202、ernments to work together and focus more on incentive-based approaches to fostering market growth rather than prescriptive policies,strict local content requirements and other policies that may inhibit collaboration.Collaboration across the board between industry and government,OEMs and developers,g
203、overnments across and within regions,within supply chains will increase common understanding,build trust,encourage technology transfer and the efficient flow of resources.It will also harmonise approaches to market development,risk-sharing in the value chain and investment protocol.All of these outc
204、omes will help to advance the growth of offshore wind at the pace and scale required to meet net zero commitments and deliver the global energy transition.Moving from cost to valueOffshore wind is a scalable,affordable and commercially available energy technology.With tremendous capacity to produce
205、power,offshore wind has significant potential to rapidly displace fossil fuels,delivering economic growth and bolstering energy security.After a decade of cost reductions,offshore wind is at an inflection point with a highly competitive levelised cost of electricity(LCOE)that is$3/MWh below that of
206、coal and$18/MWh below that of gas.9 This means that the rate of price reductions that we have seen is likely to slow.Despite this,the cost profile of electricity generated from wind energy versus electricity generation from fossil fuels remains favourable it has been for some time and will continue
207、to be.Because the offshore wind supply chain is subjected to the fluctuation of commodity prices globally,fluctuations in the cost of wind have to reflect the underlying cost of capital,commodity costs for steel,copper and other materials,and logistics costs.The past two years have shown the world h
208、ow volatile the commodity markets are during a global crisis.By embedding market and regulatory imbalances that favour projects with the lowest bids,governments across the world have encouraged a race to the bottom on wind pricing.This,combined with inflationary pressures,has exacerbated the squeeze
209、 on profitability for the wind industry.Limited profitability has in turn led to underinvestment in manufacturing capacity globally,creating the likelihood of supply chain bottlenecks post-2026.10 To meet the increasing offshore wind ambitions globally,massive investments are needed to build up the
210、offshore wind supply chain and deploy offshore wind projects at the pace and scale needed to achieve the 380 GW of cumulative capacity by 2030 projected under IRENAs 1.5C scenario.11 To restore and build a healthy offshore wind industry,governments and industry must ensure a balance between the need
211、 for affordable energy,delivery of wider socioeconomic benefits and a sustainable supply chain.Several countries are trying to capture greater socioeconomic value by 9.2H 2022 Levelized Cost of Electricity Update(BNEF)https:/ Wind Report 2023(GWEC,2023)11.Scaled-up Investments and Enabling Framework
212、s Will Unlock Offshore Renewables Potential(IRENA,2023)Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 26including non-price criteria(NPC)in project selection.12 NPC can be broadly categorised into four groups13:1.Environmental/Ecological-sustainable practice in construction,operation and decommissioning2.Tec
213、hnological/Innovation-adopting new technologies or integrating different technologies to increase project efficiency and provide additional value creation3.Supply Chain Development-developing skills and manufacturing capabilities4.Other Benefits to Communities such as,enhancing local community engag
214、ement and welfare through various initiativesThe inclusion of NPC presents both opportunities and challenges for wind industry stakeholders.It has to be carefully considered and integrated considering the stage of development of different offshore wind markets.It also sits alongside incentive mechan
215、isms that can enable different stakeholders to introduce and implement NPC.Governments are under pressure and grappling to introduce and implement NPCs that are effective and balance the needs of local and international stakeholders.Developers are faced with a double-edged sword when navigating the
216、increasingly complex bidding processes incorporating NPCs that have proliferated in many jurisdictions.Supply chain actors enjoy advantages in their home markets but are faced with steep competition in emerging markets with unrealistic Local Content Requirements(LCRs)a form of NPCs often favoured by
217、 governments as a measure that they claim can help develop domestic manufacturing capacity,create local jobs and encourage technological innovation.Australia,Germany,Ghana,Japan,Oman,the UK and Taiwan only implemented onshore and offshore LCRs in 2015.14 In Japan,LCRs accounted for 40 out of 120 pro
218、ject feasibility evaluation points in the first offshore tender round in 2020.They included having a track record of engagement with key stakeholders and impact on local and national employment and manufacturing.In Taiwan,the LCRs are even more stringent:developers participating in the round 3 aucti
219、on must locally procure 26 key development items for at least 60%of the projects proposed capacity.When implementing LCRs,governments have choices.They can use incentives or preferential treatment for domestic suppliers,or they can reserve procurement of Sustainable practice in construction,opertaio
220、n and decommissioningEnvironmental EcologicalTechnological InnovationAdopting new technologies or integrating different technologies to increase project efficiency and provide additional value creationSupply Chain DevelopmentDeveloping skills and manufacturing capabilitiesOther Benefits to Communiti
221、esEnhance local community engagement and welfare throughvarious initiativesFour main categories of non-price criteriaGovernments are under pressure and grappling to introduce and implement NPCs that are effective and balance the needs of local and international stakeholders.12.https:/www.weforum.org
222、/projects/system-value13.Leasing Report 1Q 2023(Westwood Global Energy Group,2023)14.Overcoming Barriers to International Investment in Clean Energy(OECD)https:/doi.org/10.1787/9789264227064-enPart 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 27GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023certain goods or services for them.GWE
223、C advises against prescriptive localisation requirements or restrictive trade practices.This often leads to price increases and disruption.Instead,we ask for flexibility that can build on national and regional competitive advantages,giving OEMs and the supply chain more flexibility in optimising the
224、ir production.An incentive-based approach will give the industry the confidence to overcome challenges and scale up.For example,the introduction of the IRA in the US,which aims to drive domestic manufacturing capability,regional transmission plans and investment,is heralding a new era in the interna
225、tional race for offshore wind.The beneficial changes to the tax credit available,when implemented successfully,will create a robust domestic supply chain to enable project development in the long term.Most importantly,early markets looking to introduce LCRs need a clear implementation pathway and an
226、 adequate support mechanism from government.If introduced,NPCs should be harmonised on a regional level,transparent,measurable and verifiable without inflating costs or artificially foreclosing competition.LCRs should be:l Clear and objective to identify the right project without being discriminator
227、y against any group of stakeholders.l Transparent and measurable to avoid introducing additional administrative processes and complex bidding activities.l Reasonable and practical to build on current industry capabilities without further inflating costs or delaying project development.It is imperati
228、ve that any NPCs selected can be fulfilled in the near term without leading to further delay in project development.As a market develops,NPCs can become more ambitious over time.15Most importantly,early markets looking to introduce LCRs need a clear implementation pathway and an adequate support mec
229、hanism from government.15.Auction Design for Wind Energy-from cost to value(Vestas,2023)Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 28Challenges in the global offshore wind supply chainConsensus on developing offshore wind to address the unprecedented twin challenges of ensuring secure and affordable ener
230、gy supplies and meeting climate targets has never been stronger.Both the IEA and IRENA have mapped out pathways to net zero by 2050 where offshore wind together with other regional energy sources such as onshore wind and solar PV need to scale up dramatically to deliver the required deep emission re
231、ductions.The IEAs roadmap requires offshore wind annual installations to grow nine-fold,from the 8.8 GW installed in 2022 to 80 GW by 2030 and thereafter 70 GW up to 2050.IRENA foresees more than 2,000 GW of offshore wind installed capacity by 2050 in its 1.5C scenario,nearly one-quarter of total wi
232、nd power capacity required at that time.Regional&International Supply Chain Development1.01.33.42.34.54.46.26.121.0548.820152011GWEC reported annual installationGWEC reported total installationAnnual wind installation required under IEAs Net Zero by 2050 RoadmapTotal installations require
233、d by IRENA 1.5oC scenarioGWEC projected annual installation in 2030GWEC predicted total installation20202025002004006008000Total offshore installationAnnual offshore installation000708090100Closing the offshore wind gap by 2050Source:GWEC Market Intelligen
234、ce,IEA Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap(May 2021),IRENA WETO 1.5C Pathway(June 2021)Part 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 29GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023What is the expected offshore wind demand in this decade?Although less than 9 GW of new offshore wind capacity was commissioned worldwide in 2022,the globa
235、l offshore wind market is projected to bounce back in 2023.We expect stable growth to continue in Europe and China this decade while huge offshore wind potential will be unveiled in emerging markets from North America to the Asia-Pacific region.With a compound average annual growth rate of 25%,GWEC
236、Market Intelligence forecasts new installations to sail past the 30 GW milestone in 2026 and 50 GW in 2030.Although expected annual growth rate in 2030 is still 32%lower than what is required by then for the Paris-compliant 1.5C pathway,GWEC believes a total of 328 GW of offshore wind capacity will
237、be built by end of 2030,helping the wind industry to bring total global wind installation from todays 1 TW to 2 TW by the end of this decade.Is the supply chain ready to feed growth?Turbine nacellesAccording to a GWEC Market Intelligence survey in Q1 2023,163 GW of nacelle production capacity is ava
238、ilable globally in 2023.At first glance,the wind industry appears to have enough nacelle assembly capacity to meet projected global demand.However,bottlenecks are likely to emerge from the middle of this decade if a separate benchmark is applied for offshore wind,especially at a regional level.Compa
239、red with onshore wind,the supply chain for offshore wind turbines is more concentrated,because more than 99%of offshore wind installations are currently located in Europe and APAC.Worldwide,there are 30 turbine assembly plants currently in operation,with another 55 facilities either under constructi
240、on or in the planning stage.China has more than 20 nacelle assembly facilities in operation and another 47 under construction.With turbine nacelle production capacity of 16 GW per year,the country accounts for 58%of the global market share,making it by far the worlds largest offshore turbine nacelle
241、 manufacturing hub.Excluding China,the APAC region has an offshore turbine nacelle capacity of 1.9 GW,mainly located in the Taiwan area and South Korea.Europe is the worlds second largest offshore wind turbine nacelle production base.With assembly facilities mainly located in Denmark,Germany and Fra
242、nce,the region can The supply chain for offshore wind turbines is more concentrated,because more than 99%of offshore wind installations are currently located in Europe and APAC.Table 1.Overview of global wind turbine nacelle facilities China Europe IndiaUSA LATAMAsia Pacific Africa&METotalTotal numb
243、er of nacelle assembly facilities(offshore)20(1)50 004030Number of announced nacelle assembly facilities(offshore)4710 304055*Facilities owned by western turbine OEMsSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,February 2023Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 30Expected offshore turbine nacelle capacity excl.C
244、hina,202415,200MWOffshore turbine nacelle capacity in China,202316,000MWOffshore turbine nacelle capacity excl.China,2023North America 0%Europe 83%(9,500)Europe 76%(11,500)China(CN OEMs)94%(15,000)APAC excl.China 17%(1,900)North America 0%11,400MWAPAC excl.China 24%(3,700)China(non CN OEMs)6%(1,000)
245、Offshore wind demand and supply benchmark,20232030(MW)Demand vs supply analysis 2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eEurope59598046526400China80005000500015000APAC excl.China426953256503055356995North America533955233535354500450
246、045004500LATAM00000001350Global57463082833564407554550054245Source:GWEC Market Intelligence,February 2023roll out 9.5 GW of offshore wind turbine nacelles per year at present,which we anticipate reaching 11.5 GW next year when a new nacelle facility comes into operation in Eastern Europe.
247、North America currently does not have offshore nacelle facilities in operation,although nacelle investment plans were announced in Q1 2023 by the three leading western turbine OEMs:Vestas,Siemens Gamesa and GE for New York and New Jersey.The same is true of LATAM,Africa&the Middle East.Looking at th
248、e demand and supply profile for this decade,our benchmark results show more challenges for offshore wind than for onshore wind.GWEC Market Intelligence does not see any problems arising in the near term,given that European OEMs are able to share spare offshore nacelle assembly capacity with emerging
249、 markets in APAC and North America in 20232024.However,the situation is going to change.Starting in 2026,we expect Europes existing offshore turbine Source:GWEC Market Intelligence,July 2023Part 1:Offshore Wind Enablersl Sufficient l Potential bottleneck 31GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023nacell
250、e assembly capacity to no longer be able to support growth outside of Europe.In fact,we expect that from 2027 Europes offshore wind turbine nacelle assembly capacity will struggle to cope with the growth expected in Europe alone.Existing capacity needs to double in order to meet the projected demand
251、 for this region in 2030.Looking at APAC(excluding China),although offshore turbine nacelle capacity is likely to increase to 3.7 GW after expansion work is completed at one of the existing facilities in the Taiwan area in 2024,it will still be insufficient to meet demand in this region from 2027/20
252、28.Given estimates indicating that demand for offshore wind turbines in this region will reach 7 GW in 2030,it is imperative that the investment plans announced by western OEMs in partnership with Japanese and Korean firms materialise in time.In the US,considering local content requirements(LCRs),as
253、sociated tax credits and incentives under the IRA and the two-year lead time needed to build a new offshore wind nacelle production facility from scratch,it is of the utmost urgency that GE Renewable Energy,SGRE and Vestas turn their investment plans into concrete action.There are no plans for offsh
254、ore wind projects to be built in LATAM until the latter part of this decade.However,early investment is needed to avoid bottlenecks.This is especially true of Brazil,where environmental investigation licences linked to 71 offshore wind projects,totalling more than 170 GW,had been filed by the end of
255、 2022,according to the countrys Ministry of Mines and Energy.In addition to offshore wind turbine nacelles,we find a similar supply chain situation for offshore wind turbine key components.There is a delicate balance between supply and demand in 20232025,but a gap is expected to occur from the secon
256、d half of this decade if no further investment is made.As China controls the global supply chain for gearboxes,generators,slewing bearings,castings,forgings,towers and flanges with a market share of more than 70%,restrictive trade policies such as those proposed by the EU and the US look certain to
257、create bottlenecks.Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Vessels(WTIVs)According to GWEC Market Intelligences Global Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Vessels(WTIVs)database,updated in July 2023,China and Europe operate the majority of jack-up and heavy-lift vessels used for offshore wind turbine inst
258、allation.Based on current supply chain conditions and market dynamics,we expect no bottlenecks in meeting the global demand for offshore WTIVs up to 2026.Following an offshore wind installation rush in China driven by the feed-in-tariff cut-off in 2021,new installations slowed down in 2022 and we do
259、 not expect to see 2021-level installations(15 GW)again until 2026.We believe that current Chinese WTIV supply chain availability is well-positioned to accommodate the projected domestic offshore wind growth in the near term.At the same time,we believe that Chinese EPC contractors will continue to u
260、se Chinese WTIVs to support nearshore wind turbine installation in Vietnam.In Europe,the current WTIV supply chain can cope with demand,given that annual offshore wind installations are relatively flat and unlikely to reach the 10 GW level until 2026 which also explains why European vessel operators
261、 are able to release their jack-up and heavy lift vessels over the next two years to support demand from emerging markets in GWEC.NET 32Asia mainly the Taiwan area and Japan and the US.Looking at the 20272030 supply chain situation,GWEC Market Intelligence does not expect WTIV supply chain constrain
262、ts in China.We saw in 2021 how quickly the country can mobilise vessels across the world and build vessels to support astonishing annual growth.Although the average turbine size in China has reached 7.4 MW and turbines with power ratings greater than 10 MW will soon become the prevailing product,we
263、believe the local industry can handle the challenge.In June 2023,Chinese developer CTG installed in Fujian the worlds largest offshore wind turbine,Goldwinds GW252-16 MW,with its newly built WTIV Bai He Tan.As of June 2023,27 offshore WTIVs are under construction in Chinese shipyards,of which 20 are
264、 tailor-made jack-up vessels and seven are purpose-built heavy lift vessels.In addition,local shipyards such as COSCO,CIMC Raffles and CMHI won the majority of WTIV orders placed in the past three years by large European vessel operators,namely Cadeler,Jan De Nul,Seaway 7 ASA,Van Oord and Havfram.Nu
265、mber of wind turbine installation vessels in 2023Source:GWEC Market Intelligence Global Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Vessel Database,July 2023 182205457Jack-up(Europe)Jack-up(China)Heavy lift(Europe)Heavy lift(China)Jack-up(Asia ex.China)Heavy lift(Asia ex.China)Jack-up(North Americ
266、a)Heavy lift(North America)In operationUnder-Construction/planned007080Source:GWEC Market Intelligence Global Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Vessel Database,July 2023 Part 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 33GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023JapanWith Blue Wind a new WTIV delivered in March
267、 2023 four operational jack-up vessels and three heavy lift vessels are available in Japan as of H1 2023,but two of the jack-up vessels are too small to handle todays large offshore turbine.However,four tailor-made WTIVs are to be delivered in the near future:a CP16001,a self-propelled jack-up WTIV,
268、due to be delivered to Penta-Ocean Construction in 2023;a jack-up barge to be delivered to Obayashi Corporation and Toa Construction SEP in 2023;the upgraded Sea Challenger,expected to be reflagged and delivered to Penta-Ocean and DEME Offshore Joint Venture in 2025;a jack-up barge,DKK 107,planned b
269、y Daiichi Kensetsu Kiko but without a delivery date.Japan has released an offshore wind vision with 10 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 3045 GW by 2040.The past two years saw MoUs or partnerships being signed between NYK and Van Oord,Penta-Ocean and DEME Offshore,Fred.Olsen Ocean and Shimizu Corporat
270、ion,and Shimizu and Heerema Marine Contractors.As of today,European operators including Jan De Nul,Fred.Olsen Windcarrier,Seajacks(now Eneti),Heerema,Seaway 7,Van Oord and Sapura Energy have chartered their vessels to support offshore wind project construction work in Japan.Since construction for th
271、ose large-scale projects is not expected to accelerate until 2027/2028,if the new vessels in the pipeline are delivered on time,no bottlenecks are likely to occur in Japan during the forecast period.In fact,local WTIVs from Japan could be used to support project work in other APAC markets.South Kore
272、aTwo jack-up WTIVs,Hyundai Challenger 1 and Hyundai Frontier,and the heavy lift vessel KMMB 1500 were identified for offshore wind installation in South Korea.Hyundai Challenger 1,owned by Hyundai Engineering&Steel Industries,installed the wind turbines at the 30 MW Tamra Offshore wind project and 6
273、0 MW South-West Offshore wind project Phase 1.Hyundai Frontier,a tailor-made WTIV capable of installing turbines with power ratings greater than 10 MW,is now ready to carry out practical installation and demonstration work.KMMB 1500,a tailor-made heavy lift vessel delivered two years ago,has already
274、 installed a 4.3 MW Unison wind turbine at the Gunsan Demonstration project.The 100 MW Jeju Hamlin offshore wind project,the 400 MW South West Phase 2 and the 300 MW Sinan offshore wind project phase 1 are also included in its execution pipeline.At present,only one jack-up WTIV called Hyundai Steel
275、is under construction.Supported by government funding,it was originally scheduled to be delivered in 2021 but the exact delivery date is now unclear.Since only small-and medium-sized fixed-bottom offshore wind projects are expected to be built in South Korea before 2027,no shortages are likely to oc
276、cur.After that date,the vessel supply chain situation for this country will depend on how quickly the GW-level wind projects in the pipeline are installed and what kind of installation method will be used the majority of the expected additions in the next ten years are from floating wind.If the curr
277、ent mainstream floating wind installation approach,built and towed,is used,South Korea is capable of supporting other markets in the region.If new WTIVs are needed to cope with growth in the 2030s,we believe they can be built locally as South Korea has the advantage of high R&D intensity in shipbuil
278、ding.In fact,Korean industrial conglomerates including Samsung,Hyundai and Daewoo(DSME)have already built offshore wind installation vessels for themselves and their European clients.Taiwan(China)No locally built operational offshore WTIV was available in the Taiwan area before this summer,which mea
279、ns that the projects currently in operation and under construction rely on European WTIVs.European operators including Seajacks(now Eneti),Jan De Nul and Heerema,supported project installation at three demonstration offshore wind projects in Taiwan before 2022.Four projects,totalling 2.5 GW,16 are u
280、nder construction in the Taiwan area.European heavy lift vessels Javelin,Sapura 3500,Aegir,Bokalift 1 and 2 and jack-up WTIVs vessels including Brave Tern,Bold Tern,Seajacks Zaratan and Seajacks Scylla are carrying out the foundation and turbine installation work.In June 2023,CSBC-DEME Wind Engineer
281、ing Co,a joint venture between CSBC Corp,Taiwan and Europe-based DEME,officially launched its first tailor-made heavy lift vessel,Green Jade,with a main crane ttlifting capacity of up to 4,000 tonnes.The vessel has already been booked for installation work at the 1 GW Hai Long 2 and 3 and the 300 MW
282、 Zhong Neng projects.As European operators are capable of sharing their vessels with APAC in the near term,and with Green Jade having joined the European fleet,no bottleneck is expected in the Taiwanese offshore wind market in 20232025.However,if the WTIVs currently supporting installation work in t
283、he Taiwan area need to sail back to Europe to support the expected strong growth in installations,there will be a shortage in the vessel supply chain from 2026.Green Jade alone cannot cover the expected demand of 1.5 GW per year on average between 2026 and 2035.Is new vessel investment needed to sup
284、port the growth?Will project developers just mobilise vessels from Japan and South Korea to fill the gap?Based on past cooperation in foundations and cables between Taiwan and South Korea,regional cooperation is probably the best solution to the challenge.VietnamNo real offshore wind project has bee
285、n built in Vietnam as all projects installed in the waters so far are nearshore(intertidal)projects.The majority of EPC contractors for the 21 Vietnamese nearshore/intertidal projects that fully or partially reached their COD in 2021 came from China,although local EPC contractor Sigma Engineering JS
286、C and Dubai-based SEPCOIII International also won project installation work.Due to the soft seabed conditions for those intertidal projects,heavy lift vessels and converted barges(barge+crawler crane)are used in Vietnam.With real offshore wind projects expected to be built from 2028,however,tailor-m
287、ade WTIVs will be needed.As of H1 2023,Vietnam does not have tailor-made WTIV in operation,but considering the strong cooperation that took place between China and Vietnam during the installation rush in 2021,we believe that Chinese WTIVs operators will continue to support demand from Vietnam for th
288、e medium and long term.Whether the local Vietnamese offshore wind industry needs to build its own WTIVs will depend on how the target of 6 GW of offshore wind by 2030,included in the recently passed PDP8,is rolled out,as well as on the general availability of WTIVs in the region by the middle of thi
289、s decade.Vessel Availability APAC-Country Cards 16.These projects are Yunlin Offshore Wind Project,Greater Changhua 1&2a project,Changfang and Xidao project and Formosa II.Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWEC.NET 34To accommodate the growing demand for vessels that are capable of handling large offshor
290、e wind turbines with power ratings greater than 12 MW and hub heights of more than 150m,European vessel operators started upgrading existing WTIVs and placing orders for next-generation WTIVs in the past couple of years.However,based on our latest market growth projection,we foresee a likely shortag
291、e in Europe towards the end of this decade,unless investment in new WTIVs is made before 2026/2027 assuming a lead time of three years for delivering a new WTIV.This expected bottleneck also means that offshore wind markets in APAC that are heavily reliant on European vessels need to find a solution
292、 for the future.Large offshore WTIVs are very expensive and require a skilled workforce and specific knowhow.This means that regional cooperation for vessels in APAC is vital to ensure offshore wind deployment wont get delayed,especially in new markets such as India,the Philippines,Australia and New
293、 Zealand.In the US,where only one tailor-made Jones Act compliant WTIV is currently under construction,plans for new WTIVs will have to be executed in the next two years if the Biden Administrations target of 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030 is to be met.How to build a competitive and sustainable offs
294、hore wind supply chain to cope with growthThe global wind industry has seen increased supply chain vulnerability since the US-China trade war.The situation got worse when a geographically concentrated global wind supply chain had to deal with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and then the crisis b
295、rought by Russias invasion of Ukraine.Inflation and restrictive trade policies have been among the key challenges facing the global wind industry in the past 18 months,pushing offshore wind development back instead of forward.With the Earth entering an era of“global boiling”,urgent efforts must be m
296、ade to enable exponential growth in offshore wind installations.Holistically,we need global cooperation and regional collaboration,as well as alignment Part 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 35GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023between governments,industries,trade and financial bodies to build a resilient
297、global supply chain that can deliver on the climate change goals.Lessons learnt in the past few years have shown that securing supply chain security for renewables is crucial for preventing from similar failures in the future.But restrictive trade policies should not be pursued as they can put the g
298、lobal energy transition at risk.Radical trade policies such as decoupling from Chinas supply chain should be reconsidered and replaced with a more realistic approach such as China plus one.Thanks to technological innovation,the offshore wind industry has made great progress in the past decade and th
299、e LCOE of utility-scale offshore wind has fallen by more than 70%.However,the past two years have been extremely difficult,with turbine OEMs incurring significant losses due to challenging market conditions.Size does matter,but a non-stop race in offshore wind turbine size is not healthy or sustaina
300、ble,as it requires turbine OEMs to continue making huge R&D investments during a period when they are suffering losses.The short product cycle makes manufacturing economically unfeasible due to high production costs,and insufficient time for the supply chain to develop economies of scale.OEMs also r
301、isk the substantial upfront investments required for vessels and infrastructure.The wind industry has reached a point where it is unable to risk any more losses just at the same time as our climate has reached the point where we cannot afford any delays in the energy transition.For this reason,devel
302、opers,turbine OEMs and policymakers all need to work together to build an economic,resilient and sustainable supply chain.Regional collaboration on the supply chainOffshore wind is poised for significant growth in the APAC region:China has dominated the numbers so far,but Japan,Korea,Taiwan(China)an
303、d Vietnam are now active offshore wind markets,and newcomers like Australia,New Zealand,India and the Philippines are looking to move forward with their ambitions.Our APAC forecast shows this growth out to 2032,with project pipelines in a much wider set of markets than ever before.However,with incre
304、ased appetite for offshore wind comes increasing demand for key supply chain components.As other regional offshore wind markets grow,new markets in APAC will need to look carefully at how to support and grow offshore wind,nurturing the supply chain but not imposing growth-hampering local content req
305、uirements.In this years Global Wind Report and Global Offshore Wind Report,we have explored the potential supply chain challenges around key offshore wind components.To reiterate our findings,by 2026 we see potential bottlenecks in every region of the world except for China.In the APAC region,supply
306、 chain growth through regional collaboration will be essential for realising the 250 GW of offshore wind project pipelines that was identified at the end of June 2023.The newer APAC markets can take some key learnings from Europes experience in working out how to balance building market confidence a
307、nd helping domestic players GWEC.NET 36There is no shortage of steel in the world.Yet for the rapidly growing wind energy sector it is possible that bottlenecks and supply constraints will exist in the coming years unless the sector is flexible on some of its ideal sourcing requirements.Wind is a fa
308、st growing but relatively small part of total steel plate demandThe wind energy sector is a key driver of demand growth for steel plate,by far its fastest growing end use worldwide.The sectors steel need could double by the end of the decade.However,the absolute scale of wind demand for steel plate
309、is dwarfed by other end uses,especially construction.When putting wind into the context of total reversing mill plate demand,the sector looks small.On the surface,there seems to be plenty of steel plate in the world that could serve the wind energy industry.Why then would there be any concern over s
310、upply chain bottlenecks and shortages?But its not just about total steel plateThe challenge for the wind energy supply chain comes not because steel is scarce it is not but because of the way that the industry ideally requires several sub-areas of steel to all intersect.We can illustrate this in qua
311、litative terms with the following Venn diagram:The steel required in wind is the result of overlaps of several sub-areasSteel grades for wind are undemanding but dimensions for offshore are nicheThe chemical specification,or grade,of much of the steel used by the wind sector is relatively undemandin
312、g and most mills would be able to make it.Where wind becomes a more demanding customer is on product dimensions.In the more extreme cases,especially for offshore,the demand can be for plates of up to 150mm thick.The most common plate thickness in general demand is 10-60mm and so,even without extendi
313、ng all the way to 150mm,the requirements for wind tend towards the thicker end of mill product ranges.There is a relatively small pool of suppliers able to meet all the product needs of the offshore wind energy industry.Materials origins have risen up the agendaOver 60%of the worlds reversing mill p
314、late is produced in China,which is also the worlds biggest exporter of the product.But the US is leading efforts to diversify or de-risk away from China.And China has shown recently in gallium and germanium that it is prepared to act to restrict its exports.Sourcing decisions made in such an environ
315、ment are complex but it may be that what looks like a wide range of possible suppliers is reduced in practice to a smaller number of acceptable origins.Renewables are a key demand source of low emission steelWeighted average Scope 1 emissions from the worlds plate mills is 2.2 tCO2/t.The steel indus
316、try is working hard on its decarbonisation.Results at scale are likely to take years,yet the wind energy industry is growing rapidly right now.It may not be possible for all developers to access low emission steel for several years to come.Find out more here:http:/ study:The wind industry cannot yet
317、 have it all in steelChina 52%(93.8)Other Asia 23%(42.2)Europe 10%(19)Other 8%(14.3)Americas 7%(12.9)182.4Reversing mill capacity,Mt/y,2023Data:CRUSteel grades and dimensions needed for windDesired supply origins(e.g.is high exposure to China OK?)Low emission steelIs this sufficient forwind or will
318、there be bottlenecksData:CRUPart 1:Offshore Wind Enablers 37GWEC|GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023manage external challenges such as the supply of critical materials,while also growing a supply chain but avoiding burdensome local content requirements that add costs,skew investment decisions and slow
319、down the pace of offshore wind deployment.These important European initiatives sit alongside other European programmes such as the European Critical Raw Materials Act and the European Commissions Green Deal Industrial Plan,published in February 2023.This is the level of political commitment and coop
320、eration that is necessary to accelerate offshore wind growth.Significant effort is also required to build the necessary infrastructure to underpin the rollout of offshore wind.WindEurope estimates that by 2030 Europe alone will need to invest 8.5 billion in its port infrastructure a significant chal
321、lenge,given that investments must be in place ahead of demand.Europe also faces challenges in the readiness of its supply chain and the profitability of a sector hit by rising commodity and supply chain costs.There are recognised capacity shortages in terms of OEM production and vessels,which are co
322、vered in the previous section of this report.But if these can be overcome,the political imperative created should help to underpin investor confidence in supply chain growth.Initiatives like the NSEC,bringing together the countries around the North Sea,are a good model for other regions to follow.Th
323、ey offer the following benefits that other regions can learn from:1.Raising ambition.Working together helps instil confidence across different countries that ambitious targets can be achieved.2.Allowing cooperation on shared challenges.For example,in Europe efforts are being made to build out meshed
324、 grid systems to facilitate more efficient cross-border transmission system.173.Enabling larger companies active in the supply chain to look at how to supply growing demand.In Europe this has resulted in blade,nacelle,tower,foundation,cable and other manufacturing facilities developing around the No
325、rth Sea market over time.Case Study:European collaboration on offshore wind Since early 2022,as the impact the Ukraine war on energy prices became clear,politicians and energy sector stakeholders across Europe have been looking at options for reducing dependency on volatile global markets and Russia
326、n gas.While Europe has been a growth market for renewables,this was against a backdrop of growing energy integration and reliance on Russia as a source of fossil fuels.At short notice,Europe had to focus on diversification and home-grown energy sources.This switch has brought greater focus to offsho
327、re wind already one of Europes big growth areas.To support acceleration,European countries have put in place practical programmes to underpin offshore wind deployment across the region,especially in the North Sea and the big offshore wind markets clustered around it.May 2022 saw the signing of the E
328、sbjerg Declaration,with Belgium,Germany,Denmark and the Netherlands raising offshore wind commitments to deliver 65 GW of offshore wind by 2030.The nine nations which make up Europes North Seas Energy Cooperation(NSEC)agreement met in Dublin in September 2022 to agree a programme of measures to supp
329、ort achievement of 76 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030,rising to 193 GW by 2040 and at least 300 GW by 2050.This raised ambition of the NSEC contrasts with the EUs 2020 targets of 60 GW by 2030 and 300 GW by 2050 across the whole of the bloc.In response to the Esbjerg Declaration,major European po
330、rts have come together to look at how they can collaborate to deliver the additional offshore wind capacity required.The ports of Esbjerg(Denmark),Oostende(Belgium),Groningen Seaports/Eemshaven(Netherlands),Niedersachsen Port/Cuxhaven(Germany),Nantes-Saint Nazaire(France)and Humber(UK)are working to
331、gether to see how they can support each other to grow offshore wind activity.17.Meshed grids the next frontier in leveraging the potential of offshore wind https:/windeurope.org/newsroom/news/meshed-grids-the-next-frontier-in-leveraging-the-potential-of-offshore-wind/Part 1:Offshore Wind EnablersGWE
332、C.NET 38At a national level,we are seeing activity focusing on national strengths and cooperation.Countries across Europe have reciprocal trade and partnership arrangements,with trade delegations moving between markets and sharing knowledge.Countries are increasingly focused on their specific capabi
333、lities and strengths,rather than seeking to win all aspects of the offshore wind value chain.In other markets,it will be particularly important to look at port infrastructure requirements,as well as to map where there are associated skills such as shipbuilding,fabrication,electronics and engineering excellence.Areas of potential cooperation in the APAC region could include:1.Offshore wind deployme