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1、AIRMONITOR 2023POWERED BY GLOBAL BUSINESS CONSULTINGGBT Travel Services UK Limited(GBT UK)and its authorised sublicensees(including Ovation Travel Group and Egencia)use certain trademarks and service marks of American Express Company or its subsidiaries(American Express)in the American Express Globa
2、l Business Travel and American Express Meetings&Events brands and in connection with its business for permitted uses only under a limited licence from American Express(Licensed Marks).The Licensed Marks are trademarks or service marks of,and the property of,American Express.GBT UK is a subsidiary of
3、 Global Business Travel Group,Inc.(NYSE:GBTG).American Express holds a minority interest in GBTG,which operates as a separate company from American Express.2022 GBT Travel Services UK Limited.AIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 202323Welcome To generate Air Monitor 2023,the Amex GBT data science team used t
4、he Prophet algorithm for time series modeling to combine historical transaction data with International Air Transport Association(IATA)booking demand and capacity constraints,macroeconomic variables including per capita GDP,and key inputs such as the price of oil.The challenge of skewed data posed b
5、y global travel disruption during 2020-2021 was solved by generating synthetic data for that period.This was based on historical travel patterns and validated by GBC subject matter experts who applied their domain expertise to adjust the projected demand and pricing values.To account for changes in
6、foreign exchange rates,projections are based on the local currency for the country in question.GBC subject matter experts across the globe verified that the modeled forecasts aligned with their local knowledge.The statements contained in this document,other than statements of historical fact,constit
7、ute forward-looking information and are based on estimates and forecasts that reflect the views,assumptions,expectations,and opinions of Amex GBT as of the date of publication,all of which are subject to change.While the pricing indications contained in Air Monitor 2023 have been prepared with all d
8、ue care and the information contained in this report is believed accurate at time of preparation,any estimates,assumptions,expectations or forecasts should be regarded as preliminary and for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as being necessarily indicative of future results.Me
9、thodologyAir Monitor 2023 sets out to forecast prices on key air routes across the business and economy cabins.Forecasting is always difficult.Forecasting air prices after two years of disruption and volatility is even more of a challenge,one that is compounded by the uncertain outlook for the world
10、 economy.Business travel is coming back fast but its looking very different to anything weve known before.1Travel patterns are shifting.Prices are on the move.Organizations are getting to grips with new ways of working and the growing challenge of sustainability.And all of this is happening against
11、a background of global economic uncertainty.2At Global Business Consulting(GBC)we aim to go beyond travel to help clients anticipate change and build strategies that will help them adapt and thrive.We created Air Monitor 2023 to give you the expert insights you need to navigate this new landscape an
12、d build a robust air program that delivers for your organization and your travelers.Alongside price forecasts for the worlds key business travel air routes,Air Monitor 2023 explores the factors that drive price movements and the trends that are reshaping our industry and our roles as travel professi
13、onals.A report like Air Monitor 2023 can only tell you so much,to understand how youll be flying next year and beyond,get in touch with the GBC Air practice line to gain from their in-depth insights and expertise.Julie Avenel Vice President,Global Business Consulting American Express Global Business
14、 Travel (Amex GBT)Prophet AlgorithmGBT Data LakeIATAMacroeconomic dataAIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 202345NORTH AMERICASOUTH AMERICACARIBBEANCENTRAL AMERICAAFRICAEUROPEMIDDLE EASTASIAAUSTRALIANEW ZEALAND4.4%7.8%3.4%2.9%4.2%3.7%3.7%3.6%9.0%4.2%2.3%5.8%7.4%5.7%3.7%3.7%7.3%2.1%6.0%5.5%5.2%5.4%6.2%20.0%7.
15、6%12.0%5.6%9.8%19.4%4.7%18.8%5.5%11.3%12.2%5.2%2.6%Air price forecasts for 2023 versus 2022 for the business and economy class cabins.Business cabinEconomy cabinIntra-regionalPrice forecasts for the worlds key business travel air routesAIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 202367Aviation trends and analysis T
16、he worlds carriers are emerging from one of the most challenging periods in their history.According to IATA,global aviation is expected to lose$9.7 billion in 2022,on top of combined losses of nearly$180 billion in 2020 2021.3 Some airlines now expect to end 2022 in profit;as the world continues to
17、reopen they should see an overall return to profitability in 2023.4 However,aviation will face headwinds as it sets about rebuilding its position and this will create challenges for corporate travel.In this section,GBC Air practice line consultants identify key obstacles on the road to recovery and
18、explain what these could mean for air prices and corporate travel budgets.We also explore some of the high-level trends reshaping aviation and corporate travel.IMPACT OF INFLATIONWhile airlines face higher costs for every input,fuel impacts airlines more than many other industry sectors,typically ac
19、counting for 20%-40%of total input costs.5 As of October 2022,jet fuel was$155.77 per barrel;64.7%more expensive than a year previously.6 The US Energy Information Administration forecasts that prices for both crude and refined oil products will fall in the first half of 2023;however,the environment
20、 remains volatile with tight supply.7 Fuel prices will likely still be higher in 2023 than they were in 2019.Hedging strategies vary between carriers,but even those partially or mostly hedged in 2022 will face increased fuel costs in 2023 as their hedges catch up with the current price.AIRLINE CAPAC
21、ITYOver the last two years,carriers responded to the rapid return of leisure demand by pivoting capacity from traditional business hubs to leisure-oriented destinations.13 As business demand continues to recover,airlines will likely put more capacity on business routes.In turn,this should mean busin
22、ess travelers have a greater choice of flight and seat options.At time of writing,capacity and schedule remain below 2019 levels.14 As demand for travel has risen,carriers have been in a strong position to both raise fares and deploy more restrictive inventory management strategies.By limiting the a
23、vailability of cheaper booking classes,carriers can push travelers into higher fare categories than they might have previously used(see box below).Looking to 2023,global airline capacity in terms of available seat miles(ASM)is expected to recover to 92%of 2019 levels.However,the recovery is uneven.I
24、n North America,(defined as intra-North America capacity),airline capacity is forecast to reach 107%of 2019 levels in Q1 2023.Meanwhile intra-EU capacity trails a little at 95%of 2019 levels;capacity in Asia is expected to reach 91%of 2019 levels in Q1 2023.15To retain margin,carriers will likely co
25、ntinue to carefully manage capacity to stay in tandem with rising supply.TRAVELERS PUSHED TO HIGHER PRICED INVENTORY16 2022(July September)versus 2019.US point of sale.LABOR SHORTAGESAirline and airport labor shortages were a significant factor in reduced capacity during 2022.8 Complex staff onboard
26、ing processes,which include in-depth security screening and training,are some of the reasons why air has not been able to return to full operational capacity as quickly as other sectors.Pilot shortages are severe with US airlines estimated to have 8000 empty cockpit seats.9 In response,some carriers
27、 have even set up their own pilot-training schools;as well as providing trained pilots,Uniteds Aviate Academy aims to help people from underrepresented communities start a career in flying.10 Supply chain challenges at the major aircraft manufacturers,where deliveries of new frames have slowed or be
28、en delayed,have exacerbated the overall picture.These challenges are expected to persist through much of 2023.11 The airport experience should improve,however.In a sign that airports are beginning to resolve staffing problems,Heathrow announced in October that it would lift its capacity caps.12 LOS
29、ANGELES-NEW YORK(Business)LONDON-NEW YORK(Business)NEW YORK-PARIS(Business)+16%$1,008+11%$2,760+33%$2,560GBC analysis has identified a shift to(significantly)more expensive fare categories as carriers tighten inventory.The graph shows the increase in the percentage of travelers buying higher priced
30、inventory and the average price difference over lower fare categories.Higher priced inventory is defined as the top 2 fare classes in the business class cabin,typically J and C class on most airlines.AIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 202389SUSTAINABILITYFlying is one of the key drivers of concern about th
31、e impact of travel on the environment.20 The sector has set ambitious decarbonization targets;in 2021,IATA pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.21 Aviation has achieved significant operational efficiencies resulting in a 55%improvement in fuel burn per passenger km since 1990.22 Over t
32、he coming decades,a combination of technologies such as hydrogen battery or hydrogen combustion aircraft could transform aviation into a zero-carbon/climate-neutral system.23 Looking to the short to medium term,sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)has emerged as the most promising decarbonization pathway f
33、or aviation.24 Compared with conventional jet fuel derived from fossil fuels,SAF has the potential to cut lifecycle emissions from aviation by up to 80%.25 However,today it represents less than 0.1%of aviation fuel used due to the lack of supply.26 In 2022,Amex GBT launched a SAF pilot program with
34、Shell Aviation aimed at driving up SAF production.27 Companies that sign up for the program gain access to Avelia,a blockchain-powered book-and-claim platform developed by Shell and Accenture.Book-and-claim allows travelers to pay for SAF,and claim the benefits,even if SAF is not available at their
35、departure airport.SAF will instead be fed into another aircraft in an airport where available.DISTRIBUTION AND CONTENT DISCRIMINATION2022 has not been the breakthrough year for New Distribution Capability(NDC)corporate bookings made with the XML-based standard remain at less than 1%of the total corp
36、orate air sector overall.28 In 2023,expect to see more airlines use NDC to launch bundled services to corporate clients including American Airlines and Air France-KLM.29 30To help drive NDC adoption and promote NDC standardization in the industry,Amex GBT has developed a minimum marketable product(M
37、MP)for NDC connections with all airlines and distribution partners.IATA has adopted a version of the MMP as their template for developing corporate servicing standards for airlines.Based on customer feedback and experience from testing multiple NDC solutions,the MMP sets out the minimum standard req
38、uired from any NDC solution to satisfy the unique and specific requirements of a managed travel program.These include the ability to shop,book,ticket,reissue,re-shop,refund,and provide reporting.Carriers that have not implemented viable NDC connections may well introduce surcharges on existing EDIFA
39、CT-based content delivered through the GDSs and online booking tools,and/or restrict the range of content and fares they make available in those channels.Program managers and stakeholders should continue to challenge airlines that restrict content and/or impose additional costs for booking in certai
40、n channels.Questions to ask a carrier about its distribution approach include:will it improve traveler experience?will it generate more program savings?will it improve servicing and support for travelers?TRAVELER EXPERIENCEThe rapid pace of international travel recovery since Q2 2022 appears to have
41、 caught global aviation on the hop.31 Suddenly busy airports were beset by staffing shortages,cancellations,schedule changes,and industrial action.For travelers,it meant longer queues,inconvenience,and uncertainty.32 Travel management companies(TMCs)such as Amex GBT introduced solutions to help trav
42、elers manage flight disruptions while giving travel managers insights into the impact of disruptions on their travel programs.33 Looking forward,traveler experience should improve significantly as airports and airlines rehire and train employees;however,as noted in the Labor shortages trend,this won
43、t happen overnight.Recent investments by airlines and airports in biometric and digital processes can contribute to an improving traveler experience by making the journey through the airport as seamless and touchless as possible.34Aviation trends and analysis continued:FOREIGN EXCHANGE(FOREX)EFFECTT
44、he appreciation and depreciation of currencies can create a forex effect that significantly impacts air programs in ways that may not be immediately apparent.Companies reporting travel cost in dollars may see flat average ticket prices(ATP)on routes out of Europe.In fact,ATP could be significantly h
45、igher with the price rise masked because of the strength of the dollar;for example,the dollar appreciated 13%versus the euro during 2022.17 The forex effect can be particularly strong in emerging regions such as South America.18 YQ(FUEL SURCHARGES)Carrier-imposed fuel surcharges(sometimes referred t
46、o as YQ or YR surcharges)are another source of additional cost which can go unnoticed.Since March 2022,the YQ/YR surcharges on a roundtrip business class ticket from New York to London have increased by$500 to$1,700.These surcharges together with the myriad government,airport,and other miscellaneous
47、 surcharges can add more than$2,000 for a roundtrip business class ticket on the New York London route.19 Airlines do not typically report YQ/YR surcharges in the quarterly business review,meaning corporates cannot easily see all the money they are giving to the carrier.AIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 2
48、0231011CHANGING WORK ENVIRONMENTCompanies and employees alike have embraced distributed work models,such as hybrid,where employees work from home for at least one day a week.35 Shifting work patterns have caused companies to assess the number and size of their office locations;according to Gartners
49、CFO survey,72%of organizations planned to reduce their organizations real estate footprint by the end of 2022.36To help support collaboration and build culture,companies are increasing internal travel.The American Express Global Meetings and Events(M&E)Forecast finds that internal meetings will be t
50、he fastest growing category across every global region in 2023,with the majority(66%)of these in-person events requiring air travel.37Aviation trends and analysis continued:THE NEW CONTRACTING LANDSCAPEAs airlines prioritize the return to profitability,a number of key suppliers are pivoting towards
51、premium leisure.38 During contract renewals GBC is seeing carriers hardening their negotiation posture.For example,airlines are increasingly looking at a clients 2022 spend and volume,rather than 2019,as the baseline in negotiations.This is resulting in lower discounts.Additionally,several airlines
52、have also begun to include traveler engagement initiatives such as online booking tool(OBT)messaging and banner placements or frequent flyer program(FFP)penetration growth as part of the contract;a sign that airlines are looking to strengthen their relationship with the traveler.Identify your optima
53、l contracting approach.As you rebuild your air program,its important to understand which contracting approach can provide the best value and mix mitigation.This could mean rolling(dynamic)sourcing,traditional full program sourcing or a combination of the two.Given the pace of marketplace development
54、 today,ongoing program management is critical for keeping your program current.Build a clear supplier segmentation and commodity strategy.As noted,airlines are adopting a firmer posture on contracting and may offer less generous discounts than previously.In order to maintain your program and achieve
55、 your program objectives,you need to be more strategic about how you manage your supplier relationships.Carry out a review of your suppliers to understand your dependency on each airline.Which carriers are critical to your program?You should build your strategy around these suppliers.Do you want a p
56、artnership or just a transactional relationship?Building a partnership with key air suppliers brings rewards in terms of discounts and traveler experience but be aware that carriers may increasingly require you to take tangible steps to support the partnership.Previously,an airline may merely have a
57、sked you to support its traveler engagement initiatives.Now,it is likely that the carrier will require you to,for example,allow its promotional messages onto your OBT.Figure out what you are prepared to offer the airline as a quid pro quo and be prepared to act on your commitment or accept lower dis
58、counts.Ask the airline to recognize your true spend.Your true spend with an airline can include the air fare,YQ/YR fuel surcharges plus traveler spend on ancillaries like Wi-Fi,excess baggage,etc.Airlines typically recognise only a portion of this spend.When it comes to renegotiations you should ins
59、ist the airline includes fuel surcharges as an integral part of your spend.Take a step back when designing your sourcing strategy.If you rely on 2022 as the baseline to design and source your program,be aware that key data may be missing because of the relatively slow recovery in some regions.As a r
60、esult,your travelers could end up flying without discounts in 2023.If you have to use 2022 data,also factor in 2019 data and anticipated demand to plan your negotiations.Get on the front foot.At a time of volatility and change,it can be tempting to sit on the side lines and wait for certainty.This i
61、s unlikely to arrive any time soon.Dont wait for the airlines to come to you;be proactive in engaging your strategic partners to discuss the best way forward.Keep a close watch on your evolving travel patterns;be ready to adjust as necessary.How will hybrid working impact your program?As people adop
62、t new working arrangements your organizational footprint and travel patterns are likely to change,which has the potential to make your travel program more complex.As research by Amex M&E indicates(see The changing work environment trend),more remote-based employees could mean more internal meetings
63、requiring air travel.Do you have the right contract coverage to meet these emerging organizational and traveler needs?Start your decarbonization journey.Air accounts for around 90%of CO2 emissions from business travel;to help your organization achieve its decarbonization targets,you will need to loo
64、k at the air program sooner rather than later to ask where you can drive emission reductions.39 GBC has developed 5 Steps to Reduce Emissions from Business Travel to help you get started on this journey while continuing to travel to achieve business objectives.For insight and advice to optimize your
65、 air program strategy,get in touch with the GBC air practice line.Air program strategiesGBC consultants offer considerations to help corporate travel managers and buyers negotiate the evolving contracting landscape and build a strong air program.14725836Looking to the short to medium term,sustainabl
66、e aviation fuel(SAF)has emerged as the most promising decarbonization pathway for aviation.AIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 20231213North AmericaRegional overviewNorth America has led the global aviation recovery.In July 2022,American Airlines and United Airlines reported their first profits since the st
67、art of the global travel disruption off the back of strengthening demand and higher fares.40 Three months later with the release of their Q3 earnings,American Airlines,Delta Airlines and United Airlines reported combined net income after tax in excess of$2.1bn.41 Air Canada could also report positiv
68、e quarterly operating margin,helped by robust demand for travel through the summer.42 Despite modest growth expectations for the region,North American carriers are optimistic that people want to fly;the Q3 earnings statements for United Airlines,Delta Air Lines,American Airlines,and Air Canada all i
69、ncluded statements of confidence about the continuing demand for travel.43 While the effects of labor shortages could linger through the first half of 2023,airline capacity continues to recover in the region and is currently expected to exceed 2019 levels in Q1 2023(see country sections,below).44 Gi
70、ven this,and following significant prices increases in 2022,fare rises in the competitive North America air sector are likely to be of smaller degree than those forecast for Europe and Asia Pacific.45 That said,airline capacity recovery at regional airports has been slower than at larger hubs.Travel
71、ers using regional airports are likely to continue to experience fewer booking options and possibly higher prices in 2023.46 KEY ROUTE FORECASTSBusinessEconomyIntra-regionalNorth America3.4%2.9%North America toAsia6.1%9.5%Caribbean2.3%5.8%Central America3.7%3.6%Europe3.0%2.4%South America4.2%6.4%CAN
72、ADACanada has been slower to unwind travel restrictions than its neighbor to the south,only finally removing border and travel restrictions in October 2022.47 In July,IATA had criticised the fact that the measures were still in place,saying that they were“partly responsible for the ongoing delays an
73、d disruption affecting air travelers across Canada.”48Airline capacity in Canada is expected to recover to 97%of 2019 ASM levels in Q1 2023.However,this is driven by low-cost carriers;for Air Canada,WestJet,and Porter Airlines combined capacity recovery in Q1 2023 is expected to reach only 82%of 201
74、9 levels.49New carriers most recently Canada Jetlines periodically emerge to offer a challenge to Air Canada and WestJet.50 However,with their largely domestic focus and low-cost models,these carriers may be unlikely to meet the needs of corporate travelers.UNITED STATES2022 has seen demand return a
75、nd prices rise;according to the US Consumer Price Index(CPI),airfares were rising twice as fast as general inflation as a result of high oil prices,workforce shortages and reduced airline capacity.51 Price rises should moderate in 2023 as more capacity becomes available.GBC modeling for the Air Moni
76、tor forecasts prices on North Atlantic air flows to increase by 2.9%in business class as around 14.5 million seats on this route come onstream.52 On US Asia air flows,GBC is forecasting increases of 6.7%for the business class cabin as pent-up demand returns to reopening Asian destinations.As noted a
77、bove,airline capacity to regional airports is recovering slowly:in the US,this is compounded by a pilot shortage which has particularly impacted regional airlines.53 In July,JetBlue Airways announced its attention to buy Spirit Airlines,a move that would make it the fifth biggest carrier in the US.5
78、4 This is unlikely to impact air travelers in the short to medium term;the deal has still to be approved by regulators and combining operations could take several years.Despite modest growth expectations for the region,North American carriers are optimistic that people want to fly.AIR MONITOR 2023AI
79、R MONITOR 20231415EuropeKEY ROUTE FORECASTSBusinessEconomyIntra-regionalEurope6.0%5.5%Europe toAfrica4.9%2.6%Asia7.8%9.8%Caribbean7.4%5.7%Middle East7.5%2.0%North America4.6%5.0%FRANCEFrance has experienced significant price increases versus 2019,driven by sustained demand and carrier price and fuel
80、 surcharge increases.59 Traveler preference for more flexible(and more expensive)tickets has also pushed up the cost of flying.With modest GDP growth forecast and capacity expected to increase by around 10%on key business routes,such as France North America,carriers may have limited scope to raise p
81、rices.60 61 GBC forecasts business class fares to increase 6.3%in 2023 across air flows into and out of France.In April 2022,France introduced a ban on domestic flights where an alternative rail journey under two and a half hours is available.This could impact 12%of flights.62 Amex GBT clients have
82、adapted their travel policies and guidelines for air to rail substitution.GERMANYGermanys national flag carrier Lufthansa reported a 23%yield increase in its Q3 2022 results and is optimistic about high yields continuing into the first quarter of 2023.According to the carriers Q3 results statement,c
83、apacity discipline is central to its strategy.63 64Price increases should be moderate relative to other countries in Europe;Germany has not seen demand recover as strongly as France and the UK.Concerns about the impact of rising energy prices on Germanys manufacturing economy could put downwards pre
84、ssure on prices.65 GBC forecasts business class prices to increase 4.1%in 2023 across blended airflows into and out of Germany.While Germany has discussed banning domestic flying,the country currently relies on encouragement to support the modal shift from air to rail;Deutsche Bahns Zug zum Flug tic
85、ket provides a simple way to use the train instead of the plane for short-haul journeys to international flight hubs.66 NETHERLANDSGBC forecasts business class fares to rise 8.1%across air flows to and from the Netherlands.The price rise will largely be driven by ongoing reduced capacity out of Amst
86、erdams Schiphol airport.Schiphol experienced significant staff shortages through 2022 resulting in long queues for travelers and flight cancellations.In October,the airport announced that it would continue to limit daily passenger numbers until at least March 2023.67 The Netherlands will increase ai
87、r passenger tax from January 1,2023.68 SPAINIberia,Spains national carrier,saw demand and capacity recover strongly through 2022.The airline is positioning for growth with extensive fleet renewal and the addition of new routes from Madrid including Washington Dulles and Dallas-Fort Worth.69 IAG,Iber
88、ias parent company,renewed its bid to acquire Air Europa by taking a 20%stake in the airline.70 This move should further strengthen and expand Iberias Madrid Barajas hub and open up new growth opportunities on transatlantic and Asia routes.Inflation in Spain peaked at 10.8%in July 2022 and is expect
89、ed to moderate into next year.71 Nonetheless,the return of demand combined with limited competition and capacity discipline means that GBC forecasts business class fares to and from Spain to increase 10.5%in 2023.UNITED KINGDOMAs travel restrictions eased in the first months of 2022,UK aviation dema
90、nd rapidly returned;Q2 numbers more than doubled versus Q1 and the number of flights increased 63%.72 Returning demand has put pressure on UK airports.In response,London Heathrow introduced a cap on passenger numbers which lasted through to the end of October.73Competition has been concentrating on
91、the London Heathrow New York John F.Kennedy International Airport(JFK)route as British Airways(BA)ended its London City JFK services and Virgin stopped flying into Newark Liberty International Airport to focus on JFK.With overall demand continuing to exceed capacity,GBC forecasts business price fare
92、s to increase 5.3%in 2023 across air flows to and from the UK.Europe will see fares rise on key business travel air flows driven by high fuel prices and reduced capacityRegional overviewEuropes growth prospects have been dampened by surging energy prices resulting from the war in Ukraine and high in
93、flation.These factors have reduced household incomes,depressed manufacturing and put pressure on company balance sheets.55 The IMF has downgraded its growth forecast for the euro area to 0.5%down from 3.1%in 2022 with downturns predicted for Germany and Italy.56 Despite this economic context,Europe
94、will see fares rise on key business travel air flows driven by high fuel prices,reduced capacity,and national carriers strong footprints within their home countries.The forex effect is a factor here:as long as the euro and sterling remain weak relative to the dollar,prices will face upwards pressure
95、.In February 2022,Russia closed its airspace to the airlines from the EU and the UK.57 Flights have had to be rerouted or cancelled;the most heavily impacted regions air flows are Europe-Asia and Asia-North America.58 AIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 20231617AsiaRegional overviewAsia has often lagged the
96、 rest of the world on removing travel restrictions;while Singapore began reopening as early as April 2022,Hong Kong only relaxed its hotel quarantine for international arrivals in September.74 75On the basis that economies continue to open through 2023,the IMF is relatively bullish on the regions gr
97、owth prospects and forecasts GDP growth for Emerging and Developing Asia at 4.9%.76 The closure of Russian airspace means that flights to and from North America and Europe to Asia Pacific may need to reroute,extending journey times and increasing costs.For example,a flight from Tokyo to London which
98、 now has to head east over the North Pacific,Alaska,Canada,and Greenland has to add 2.4 hours of flight time and is likely to burn around 5,600 gallons more fuel,a 20%increase.77 KEY ROUTE FORECASTSBusinessEconomyIntra-regionalAsia5.2%5.4%Asia toAustralia6.2%5.1%Europe7.3%14.5%North America4.6%10.3%
99、CHINAAir Monitor 2023 does not contain price forecasts for China;sporadic lockdowns across the country have made the situation too fluid to forecast.China has maintained strict travel restrictions on international arrivals since March 2020.While recently repeating its commitment to stringent health
100、management protocols,China announced a limited easing of its rules for inbound international travelers in November 2022.78 In what appears a further move to restore travel,several major Chinese airlines including the big three of Air China,China Eastern,China Southern have announced plans for the re
101、sumption of international flights.79 INDIAThe Indian economy is performing relatively strongly with 7%growth expected for full year 2022.80 For 2023,the IMF forecasts that GDP growth will moderate to 6.1%.81 Continuing economic expansion should generate demand,putting upwards pressure on air prices.
102、Meanwhile,the weakness of the rupee versus the dollar has amplified the effects of rising fuel prices,putting further cost pressure on carriers.82In a busy period for corporate activity,2022 saw Tata complete its purchase of Air India from the Indian government;the industrial group intends to make s
103、ignificant investments to upgrade Air Indias customer proposition.83 Tata has been in talks with Singapore Airlines about merging Vistara the carrier jointly owned by Tata and Singapore Airlines with Air India.84 GBC forecasts business class fares to increase 11.7%in 2023 across air flows to and fro
104、m India.JAPANJapan has operated the strictest border controls of any country in the G7 group of the worlds largest economies,only reopening its borders to independent visitors in October 2022.85 GDP expansion is expected to be moderate,with the IMF forecasting 1.6%growth for the 2023.86 As demand re
105、turns to an aviation sector facing the same fuel cost,staffing and capacity issues experienced globally,GBC forecasts fares to increase by 3.5%in the business class cabin across air flows to and from Japan.SINGAPOREOne of the first mainstream destinations in Asia to reopen its borders in April 2022,
106、Singapore quickly won back visitors.Changi Airport reported in October 2022 that travel was recovering faster than expected;it was hoping to reach 80%of 2019 traffic volume by 2023.87 The rapid return of demand spurred significant price increases;in May,a return trip to London with Singapore Airline
107、s was reported to have risen by 80%.88 In November,the carrier posted its highest-ever half-year operating profit as demand continued to surge.89 GBC forecasts business price fares to increase 8.6%in 2023 across air flows to and from Singapore.Singapores drive for sustainable aviationSingapore has s
108、et out to become a regional and global leader in the production and uptake of SAF.By the end of 2023,Singapore will host a SAF production facility capable of producing 1 million tonnes of the fuel per year.90 In July,Singapore Airlines began selling SAF credits as part of a pilot with the Civil Avia
109、tion Authority of Singapore(CAAS)and global investment company Temasek to advance the use of SAF in Singapore.91 Asia Pacific has often lagged the rest of the world on removing travel restrictionsAIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 20231819AustraliaRegional overviewAfter almost two years of stringent travel
110、 restrictions,Australia began welcoming back international visitors in February 2022.92 Travel recovered rapidly;by June,domestic passengers had reached 97%of 2019 levels.Fares increased significantly as carriers reduced capacity to manage staff shortages and jet fuel costs rose to record levels.93
111、In the seven months following since May 2022,Qantas announced fare rises on five occasions.94 Buoyed by record commodity prices,Australias economy is forecast to grow 3.25%in financial year 2022 2023,even after the Australian Treasury has downgraded the countrys GDP growth forecast.95 Sustained grow
112、th should generate demand,putting upwards pressure on prices.Qantas anticipates international capacity will return to pre-pandemic levels around the middle of 2023,amid“strong robust demand”as borders reopen.96 KEY ROUTE FORECASTSBusinessEconomyAustraliaDomestic19.4%4.7%Australia toAsia6.1%24.9%New
113、Zealand19.8%5.3%Buoyed by record commodity prices,Australias economy is forecast to grow.AIR MONITOR 2023AIR MONITOR 20232021References1 Amex GBT transaction recovery had reached 76%of 2019 levels by October 2022.American Express Global Business Travel Reports Q3 2022 Financial Results and Reiterate
114、s Full-Year 2022 Guidance.November 10,2022.2 World Economic Outlook.International Monetary Fund(IMF).October 2022.3 Travel Recovery Rebuilding Airline Profitability-Resilient Industry Cuts Losses to$9.7 billion.International Air Transport Association(IATA).20 June 2022.4 IATA.Ibid.5 How Much Does It
115、 Cost To Fuel A Commercial Airliner?Simple Flying.September 11,2022.6 Jet Fuel Price Monitor.IATA.Accessed October 11,2022.7 Short-term Energy Outlook.US Energy Information Adminis-tration.September 7,2022.8 Why are so many flights being canceled?Aviation analysts say its due to airlines inability t
116、o plan amid a tight labor market.Business Insider.July 23,2022.9 The U.S.has a pilot shortage heres how airlines are trying to fix it.CNBC.September 13,2022.10 Uniteds New Pilot School Readies Its First Class for a More Inclusive Cockpit.Skift.May 2,2022.11 Boeing expects supply chain problems to la
117、st through most of 2023.Reuters.June 22,2022.12 London Heathrow Airport Scraps Passenger Cap.Simple Flying.October 26,2022.13 Air travel is back for tourists,but not for business travelers.Quartz.August 9,2022.14 At time of writing,global international capacity was 24%below where it was at the same
118、period in 2019.Covid-19 Air Travel Recovery.OAG.Access October 13,2022.15 Diio Traffic and Fares.January-June 2023.Accessed November 18,2022.16 Amex GBT transaction data.17 How Countries Should Respond to the Strong Dollar.IMF Blog.International Monetary Fund(IMF).October 14,2022.18 Three ways a str
119、ong dollar impacts emerging markets.World Bank Blogs.August 4,2022.19 Amex GBT transaction data.20 Air travel produces about 40 percent of the travel and tourism industrys emissions.The Travel Industrys Impact on the Earth.Travel Pulse.April 22,2022.21 Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050.International
120、 Air Transport Association(IATA).Press release.October 4,2021.22 Operational efficiencies arising from aerodynamic improvements associated with retrofitting winglets or reduced engine taxiing-have resulted in a 55%improvement in fuel burn per passenger km since 1990.Net zero 2050:operational and inf
121、rastructure improvements.Fact sheet.IATA.June 2022.23 Hydrogen-powered aviation.Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking(European Union).Accessed October 17,2022.24 Our Commitment to Fly Net Zero by 2050.IATA.25 What is SAF?Fact sheet.IATA.Accessed October 17,2022.26 Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible.Missio
122、n Possible Partnership.July 2022.27 Amex GBT urges companies to join landmark sustainable aviation fuel pilot program.Press release.Amex GBT.June 29,2022.28 IATA:Of Every 200 Indirect Airline Bookings,Less Than One Uses NDC For Corporate Travel.The Company Dime.June 30,2022.29 American Airlines to e
123、xpand NDC fares through GDS deals.Business Travel News Europe.October 25,2022.30 Air France-KLM further postpones GDS surcharge for TMCs.Business Travel News Europe.September 21,2022.31 International Travel Drives May Air Traffic Recovery.IATA.July 7,2022.32 How Europe Became the Epicenter for This
124、Summers Travel Chaos.Bloomberg.July 1,2022.33 American Express Global Business Travel counters travel chaos with new disruption management solutions.Amex GBT news release.August 14,2022.34 Biometrics at the Airport:Why the Travelspheres Future is Digital.Insights.OAG.March 31,2022.35 McKinseys Ameri
125、can Opportunity Survey found 58%of Americans have the opportunity to work from home at least one day a week.87%of respondents will take advantage of the opportunity to work flexibly when it available.Americans are embracing flexible workand they want more of it.McKinsey.June 23,2022.36 Gartner CFO S
126、urvey Reveals Real Estate and Finance Functions Most Likely to Face Cuts Within a Year.Gartner.August 4,2022.37 2023 Global Meetings and Events Forecast.American Express Meetings&Events.October 2022.38 American Airlines to Boost Premium Seats by 60 Percent on Soaring Demand.Skift.October 20,2022.Abo
127、ut Amex GBT Global Business ConsultingGlobal Business Consulting(GBC)is the consulting arm of Amex GBT.Our global team of professionals works with clients to help them navigate the constantly evolving global travel industry.The GBC Air practice line provides unrivalled insight,marketplace knowledge,
128、and strategic management for our clients air program,helping them build and maintain a program that is aligned with their business objectives and needs.We work with the client to define the program strategy,identifying what they need to achieve from their air program.We then help them put in place t
129、he optimum framework and negotiation strategy,with the right airlines and policies,to engage travelers and align behavior with the program.Our ongoing program management means the client can fully realize the benefits of the contracts that we help them negotiate and keep their program current,based
130、on marketplace dynamics and the evolving needs of your business.To learn more about the GBC air practice line get in touch.About American Express Global Business TravelAmerican Express Global Business Travel(Amex GBT)is the worlds leading B2B travel platform,providing software and services to manage
131、 travel,expenses,and meetings and events for companies of all sizes.We have built the most valuable marketplace in B2B travel to deliver unrivalled choice,value,and experiences.With travel professionals in more than 140 countries,our customers and travelers enjoy the powerful backing of American Exp
132、ress Global Business Travel.Visit for more information about Amex GBT,and follow amexgbt on Twitter,LinkedIn,and Instagram.AcknowledgmentsAIR MONITOR 202322 2022 GBT Travel Services UK Limited.39 Analysis:Corporate business travel carbon budgets loom for airlines.Reuters.October 11,2021.40 American
133、and United airlines return to profitability.CNN.July 21,2022.41 Q3 results for North American carries.United Airlines;Delta Airlines;American Airlines;Air Canada.42 Air Canada Reports Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results.October 20,2022.43 World Economic Outlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.44 Amex GBT tra
134、nsaction data.45 Based on a snapshot of airline capacity ASM.Diio Traffic and Fares.January-June 2023.Accessed November 14,2022.46 Capacity recovery for the bottom 1/3 of North America origins and destinations(O&Ds)is at 87%for Q1 2023 compared with 103%for the top 2/3 O&Ds.47 Government of Canada t
135、o remove COVID-19 border and travel measures effective October 1.Public Health Agency of Canada.September 26,2022.48 Canadian Government Urgently Needs to Remove COVID-19 Travel Restrictions.July 15,2022.IATA.49 Based on a snapshot of airline capacity ASM.Diio Traffic and Fares.January-June 2023.Acc
136、essed November 18,2022.50 Canada Jetlines,the latest airline to enter a crowded field,set to take off.CBC.September 22.2022.51 Why Airfares Have Risen Five Times Faster Than The Overall Inflation Rate.Forbes.October 14,2022.52 Diio Traffic and Fares.January-September 2023.Accessed November 14,2022.5
137、3 A severe pilot shortage in the U.S.leaves airlines scrambling for solutions.CNBC.May 15,2022.54 JetBlue to buy Spirit for$3.8 billion in push to become the fifth-largest US carrier.CNBC.July 28,2022.55 Energy crisis chips away at Europes industrial might.Reuters.November 2,2022.56 World Economic O
138、utlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.57 Russia retaliates with airspace closure for 36 countries.DW Deutsche Welle.February 28,2022.58 The impact of the war in Ukraine on the aviation industry.IATA Fact Sheet.March 25,2022.59 Air France-KLM To Raise Ticket Prices Following Fuel Rate Spike.Simple Flying.Marc
139、h 19,2022.60 Diio Traffic and Fares.January-September 2023.Accessed November 14,2022.61 World Economic Outlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.62 France bans domestic flights in a bid to reduce carbon emissions.Airport Technology.September 6,2022.63 Third Quarter 2022 Results.Lufthansa Group.October 27,2022.6
140、4 Lufthansa CEO Sees Opportunities in Blended Travel Coming to Europe.Airline Weekly.October 27,2022.65 World Economic Outlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.66 How Short-Haul Flight Bans Are Transforming European Travel.Conde Nast Traveler.January 6,2022.67 Schiphol airport:More flights to be cancelled as p
141、assenger caps extended until March 2023.Euronews.October 10,2022.68 Dutch Government raises flight tax to almost 30 euros per ticket from 2023.Aviation24.be.September 7,2022.69 X Iberia CEO Says Now Is the Time to Invest and Expand.Airline Weekly.June 3,2022.70 IAG Becomes Air Europas Second-Largest
142、 Shareholder With 20%Stake.Simple Flying.August 16,2022.71 Economic forecast for Spain.European Commission.Accessed November 25,2022.72 2022 quarter two flight data.UK Civil Aviation Authority.August 17,2022.73 London Heathrow Airport Scraps Passenger Cap.Simple Flying.October 26,2022.74 Singapore t
143、o relax Covid entry rules from 1 April.Business Travel News Europe.March 24,2022.75 Hong Kong relaxes COVID rules for inbound tour groups.Reuters.November 7,2022.76 World Economic Outlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.77 Flights are taking huge detours around Russian air space.Heres what that means for the
144、climate crisis.CNN.March 24,2022.78 China scraps Covid flight bans,cuts quarantine for inbound travelers.CNN.November 11,2022.79 Flight Prices Are Falling As Chinese Airlines Resume Interna-tional Routes.Simple Flying.October 19,2022.References continued:80 Moodys cuts 2022 growth forecast for India
145、 to 7%.The Economic Times.November 11,2022.81 World Economic Outlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.82 Weak rupee add to desi globetrotters woes as costs spike on top of already sky-high airfares.Times of India.July 20,2022.83 Air India returns to Tata:Everything you need to know about this handover.The Econ
146、omic Times.January 27,2022.84 Tata Group in talks with Singapore Airlines to merge Vistara,Air India:Report.Hindustan Times.September 27,2022.85 Why Japan has been taking incremental steps to reopen its borders.The Japan Times.September 22,2022.86 World Economic Outlook.IMF.October 2022.Ibid.87 Sing
147、apore Changi Airport hopes to reach 80%of 2019 traffic levels by 2023.Aerotime Hub.October 4,2022.88 Airfares surge as Spore fully opens border,and pent-up travel demand spurs bookings.The Straits Times.May 14,2022.89 Whats next for SIA shares?IG Group.November 8,2022.90 How Singapore is Working To
148、Be A South East Asia SAF Hub.Aviation Week.February 28,2022.91 Singapore Airlines To Launch Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credits.Simple Flying.June 10,2022.92 Australia ends travel ban for fully vaccinated visitors.The Independent.March 03,2022.93 Domestic airfares rise as airlines cut flights to ease
149、pressure on industry.Australian Competition and Consumer Commis-sion.September 07,2022.94 Qantas issued Public Structural Fare Change announcements in June,July,August,September,and October 2022.95 Australia to cut economic growth forecasts on lower consumer spending.Reuters,October 24,2022.96 Qantas forecasts full international recovery by mid-2023.Flight Global.June 19,2022.