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1、Solar exports from Chinaincrease by a thirdExports of solar panels from China increased by 34%in the first half of2023 compared to the same period last year.Published date:14th September 2023Lead author:Sam Hawkins1ContentsExecutive summaryAnalysisChinas module exports increase by a thirdHalf of Chi
2、nas solar exports shipped to EuropeEurope and Africa see the greatest growthManufacturing capacity steps upSupporting materialsMethodologyAcknowledgementsAboutThis report analyses Chinese customs data on exports of solar modulesalso called solarpanelsin the first half of 2023.It accompanies an open
3、dataset that will be updated monthly by Ember to track the capacityof solar modules exported from China to the rest of the world.2Executive SummarySolar boom continuesThe growth in solar exports from China is helping to meet growingdemand for clean,affordable power,driven by markets like Europe andS
4、outh Africa that are aiming to increase energy security.Solar power is expected to be the largest source of electricity capacity by 2027 and will bekey to rapidly reducing emissions across the power sector.Pathways aligned with limitingglobal heating to 1.5 degrees require a tripling of renewable ca
5、pacity by 2030,in which solaris expected to play the largest role.China has at least 80%of the global market share in solar manufacturing capacity,makingChinese exports an important dataset for tracking the clean energy transition.01Chinas solar exports riseIn the first half of 2023,exports of solar
6、 panels from China grew by 34%,with 114 GW shipped worldwide,compared to 85 GW in the same periodlast year.This is equivalent to the total installed solar panel capacity of theUnited States(113 GW).02Exports satisfy a surge in demandfrom EuropeMore than half of the solar modules exported from China
7、in the first half of2023 were destined for Europe(58%).The region has also seen the greatestabsolute growth worldwide,with exports of solar panels from China toEurope up 47%year-on-year.66 GW were shipped to Europe in the first halfof 2023,up from 44 GW in the same period last year.Brazil is the nex
8、tbiggest importer after Europe,receiving 9.5 GW of Chinese solar panelexports in the first six months of 2023,almost unchanged from theprevious year.303Africa sees the fastest growthAfrica was the region with the largest percentage growth(+187%),driven bylarge increases in South Africa,with the coun
9、try importing 3.4 GW(up from0.6 GW in H1-2022)as governments and citizens turned to rooftop solar asa way out of their energy crises.After Africa,the region with the nextfastest relative growth was the Middle East,up 64%(+2.4 GW)in the firsthalf of 2023 compared to the same period last year.Based on
10、 Chinese export data,2023 should see another big step up in installed solarcapacity worldwide.However,the gap between module exports and installed capacity isgrowing,with significant stocks of modules sitting in warehouses.Concerted policy effort isneeded to ensure that the installation and integrat
11、ion of solar PV can keep pace with modulesupply and match the acceleration needed for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by2030.“Solar growth is going through the roof.The world is racing to harness thischeap,clean and abundant source of energy to power the future economy.It is clear that glo
12、bal manufacturing capacity is currently not the limiting factorto achieving the required fivefold growth in solar power by 2030.We have enough solar panels,we just need to get busy installing them.Policiesshould focus on ensuring installation and grid integration can ramp up as fastas global module
13、supply.”Sam HawkinsData Lead,Ember4AnalysisA 34%increase in Chinas solarpanel exports meets growingglobal demandExports of solar panels from China grew by 34%in the first half of 2023,with the fastest growth in Europe and Africa.Chinas module exports increase by a thirdExports of solar modules from
14、China to the rest of the world have increased 34%year-on-year,growing from 85 GW in the first half of 2022 to 114 GW in the same period thisyear,which is almost as much as the total exported over the whole of 2021.This amount ofsolar panels would generate enough electricity to power Sweden and is eq
15、uivalent to thetotal installed solar panel capacity of the United States(113 GW).China currently produces around eight out of every ten solar panels,and the growth inChinese exports has global implications for the scale-up of clean power.5Half of Chinas solar exports shipped toEuropeThe data reveals
16、 that Europe accounted for 52.5%of the value of Chinas solar exports in thefirst half of 2023.Solar modules,which are fully assembled solar panels,accounted for 90%($23.8 bn)ofChinas total solar exports by value in the first half of 2023.Over the last 12 months,Chinaexported 111 GW of solar modules
17、to Europe,the same amount as the total installed PV6capacity of the United States.With a total over the last 12 months of 19 GW,Brazil is thelargest single destination for Chinas solar module exports outside of Europe.Solar cells,which are unassembled parts that make up solar panels,made up the rema
18、ining10%of Chinas solar exports by value($2.5 bn).The main export destinations for solar cellswere Trkiye(33%),India(17%),Cambodia(15%),Thailand(10%)and South Korea(4%).The remainder of the report analyses exports of assembled modules only.7Europe and Africa see the greatest growthEurope saw the lar
19、gest absolute growth in solar panels imported from China in the first halfof 2023 compared to the previous year,while Africa saw the largest percentage growth,driven by large increases in South Africa.Many parts of Asia,Latin America and the MiddleEast also saw significant growth.EuropeGrowth is con
20、centrated in Europe,where imports of solar panels from China are up 47%(+21GW),from 44 GW in the first half of 2022 to 66 GW in the same period this year.Onceinstalled,this new capacity could provide around 2%of Europes annual electricity demand,similar to the annual demand of Belgium,supporting the
21、 regions goals to increase energyindependence.However,stockpiles grew,with an estimated 40 GW of solar panels currently in warehouseswithin Europe,underlining the bottlenecks in installing and connecting solar panels.8Note:It is not possible to confirm from the export data which countries within Eur
22、ope arereceiving these panels since the majority are shipped to the Netherlands,which is a majorimport hub rather than the final destination for large volumes of solar panels.A number ofcountries within Europe have seen record additions of solar capacity in the first half of 2023.AfricaOutside of Eu
23、rope,South Africa was the country with the largest absolute increase inimported solar panels from China.Module exports to South Africa saw rapid growth in 2023,with 3.4 GW exported to the country in the first six months of 2023,an increase of 438%(+2.7 GW)compared to the same period last year(0.6 GW
24、).Frequent load-shedding has led citizens in South Africa to turn to rooftop solar,acceleratedby the introduction of short-term tax incentives.In the last 12 months,South Africa imported94 GW of solar panels from China,which would generate electricity equivalent to around 3%ofits annual demand.Mostl
25、y due to South Africas growth,Africas solar imports from China were up 187%(+3.7GW)year-on-year.As a result,it was the region with the fastest percentage growth in 2023so far and the second-largest absolute growth after Europe.Middle EastAfter Africa,the Middle East was the region with the next fast
26、est relative growth,with solarpanel exports from China up 64%(+2.4 GW)in the first half of 2023 compared to the sameperiod last year.Solar panel exports from China to Saudi Arabia grew more than sixfold from a low base in2022(0.4 GW)to reach 2.8 GW in the first half of 2023,driven by large-scale pro
27、jects.Module exports from China over the last 12 months now stand at 3.6 GW,and wouldgenerate 2%of Saudi Arabias annual electricity demand.Rapid growth in capacity must bemaintained if solar PV is to do the heavy lifting for the countrys target 50%share ofrenewables by 2030.The growth in solar panel
28、s exported from China to the United Arab Emirates is also notable.Exports increased by 33%to 1.4 GW in the first half of 2023 compared to 1.1 GW in the sameperiod last year,and the total over the past 12 months was 4.1 GW,equivalent to around 4%of annual electricity demand.This is broadly in line wi
29、th solar PV meeting most of thecountrys target of 30%clean power by 2030,but there is still room to increase ambition,given the growth rates achieved in other countries.Asia PacificThe only region to see fewer imports from China over the first half of 2023 compared to theprevious year was Asia,as In
30、dia turned to focus on growing domestic manufacturingcapacity.However,Pakistan is a notable exception,with rapid growth in imports in 2023 sofar.Many other importers remained steady,such as Australia and Japan.10Pakistan saw a rapid rise in 2023,with 3.8 GW exported to the country in the first six m
31、onthsof 2023,an increase of 86%(+1.8 GW)compared to the same period last year.Power pricesremain very high with frequent load shedding,and sales taxes on solar modules wereremoved in 2022 to encourage uptake.It is not yet clear whether these imports will translateinto installations within the countr
32、y:if they do,it will have a significant effect on thegeneration mix.The total capacity of panels exported to Pakistan over the last 12 months is5.2 GW,which would generate the equivalent of 5%of Pakistans annual electricity demand.India was the only country to see a large fall in imports from China.
33、Module exports to Indiadeclined by 76%(-7.5 GW)year-on-year,down from 9.8 GW in the first half of 2022 to 2.3 GWin the same period this year.This followed the imposition of tariffs as India shifts away fromimports to focus on building and utilising domestic manufacturing capacity.Indias domesticsola
34、r module manufacturing capacity has stepped up.There has also been a rise in thenumber of Chinese cells,which are then assembled locally into solar panels,with India nowthe second largest destination for exported solar cells after Trkiye.11Latin AmericaLatin America is just behind Asia as the third-
35、largest export market for Chinese solar panels.It has a growing appetite for solar panels from China,with imports up 18%(+2.3 GW)in thefirst half of 2023 compared to the same period last year.Exports to Brazilthe second largest market after Europewere steady,with 9.5 GWimported in the first half of
36、2023 compared to 9.4 GW in the same period last year.Over thelast 12 months,Brazil has imported 18.6 GW of panels,which would generate electricityequivalent to 4%of the countrys annual demand.In the region,Chile and Colombia are seeing the most rapid growth.Exports to Chileincreased by 70%(+0.9 GW)f
37、rom 1.3 GW in the first six months of 2022 to 2.2 GW in thesame period this year.Over the past 12 months,exports to Chile totalled 3.4 GW,whichwould generate electricity equivalent to 6%of the countrys electricity demand.Exports toColombia also saw rapid growth,from 0.5 GW in the first half of 2022,
38、to 1.2 GW in the sameperiod this year,an increase of 135%(+0.7 GW).Over the last 12 months,exports toColombia totalled 2 GW,which would generate electricity equivalent to around 3.5%of thecountrys electricity demand.Manufacturing capacity steps upIn 2022,global solar PV manufacturing capacity increa
39、sed by over 70%to reach almost 450GW,according to the IEA.Global solar PV manufacturing capacity is expected to doubleagain and reach almost 1000 GW capacity per year in 2024.Most of the growth is still inChina,although 70 GW/year of capacity will come online spread across the United States,Europe,I
40、ndia and other countries in Asia.12Chinas solar manufacturing capacity is expected to almost double in the next year,from 504GW/year at the end of 2022 to 931 GW/year at the end of 2023.Europe is aiming for 30GW/year of manufacturing capacity by 2025.In the United States,the Inflation Reduction Acth
41、as spurred investments of 85 GW/year of solar panel manufacturing capacity.India aims toincrease manufacturing capacity to 110 GW/year by 2026.A 1.5 degree aligned pathway requires a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030,which isalready possible to achieve with 1000 GW/year of supply expected by 20
42、24.It is clear thatglobal manufacturing capacity is currently not the limiting factor.However,the gap between solar module exports and installed PV capacity is widening.In part,this gap may reflect an underestimation of installed rooftop capacity,or lags incollecting accurate numbers for total insta
43、lled capacity.Yet it also clearly reflects a build-upof module stocks in warehouses as a result of the challenges of accelerating solarinstallation and grid integration.13ConclusionSolar is boomingGlobal solar manufacturing capacity is not a barrier to the fivefoldincrease in solar deployment needed
44、 for 1.5C pathways,and policiesmust now focus on removing bottlenecks to installation.Solar demand in 2023 is booming:the latest data shows there may be 50%more installed in2023 than there was in 2022.And there is enough global manufacturing capacity comingonline to make sure that it can continue to
45、 do so.Nowhere is this more true than in China.There were 154%more solar panels installed in thefirst half of 2023,compared to the same period in 2022.By comparison,Chinas solar panelexports rose 34%in the same period.Chinas solar manufacturing capacity is expected toalmost double in the next year.T
46、his has resulted in a large reduction in the price of solarpanels,which have fallen by 25%since the start of the year.Imports of Chinese solar panels will continue to be important to the global electricitytransition in the short term.Much of Europes demand for solar power is being met by China,but t
47、his reliance will be reduced as the region increases manufacturing capacity.The US hasalready cut Chinese imports to near-zero,and the Inflation Reduction Act has spurredinvestments in solar panel manufacturing capacity.India has relaxed its import duty to partlyresume Chinese solar imports,whilst i
48、ncreasing manufacturing capacity to becomeself-sufficient.But there are signs that deployment is not keeping pace with supply of solar panels,with anincrease in imported solar panels left in warehouses,which is especially visible in Europe.This is caused by installation delays arising from skills sh
49、ortages,permitting and gridintegration.This is holding back the transition,and creating pent-up demand.In order to put the world on track for 1.5 degrees,global renewable capacity will need totriple by 2030.There will be enough supply of solar panels to make sure this happens.Government policies nee
50、d to focus on how to maximise deployment,to make sure thepent-up demand for solar is unleashed.14Supporting MaterialsMethodologySummaryWe have taken Chinese customs data of solar module exports by country by month,andconverted the value in dollars into a megawatt capacity,using a monthly solar modul
51、e spotprice.Export DataEmbers China solar export dataset provides the following information:Export amount in weight(kg)Export amount in US dollars(USD)Export amount in quantity(number of items)Average photovoltaic module price(USD)Calculated capacity(MW)Data is sourced from the General Administratio
52、n of Customs of the Peoples Republic ofChina(GACC):Data is available from 2017 to present.Prior to 2022,assembled and non-assembled cells were not disaggregated intoseparate commodity codes.Prior to 2022,the commodity code used is 85414020(Solar cells).From 2022 and onwards,the commodity code used i
53、s 85414300(Photovoltaic cellsassembled in modules or made up into panels).From 2022 and onwards the code 85414200(Photovoltaic cells not assembled inmodules or made up into panels)is excluded from this dataset.In 2022,unassembled modules accounted for 8.7%of total photovoltaic cell exports by value.
54、15Module PriceAverage monthly PV module prices are sourced from InfoLink Consulting Group.For thisdataset,only the overseas market price for assembled modules is used.All prices publishedfor a given month are averaged,and prices are interpolated for missing months.The monthlyPV module price is inclu
55、ded in the data download.Capacity CalculationThe capacity(MW)of the solar exports in this dataset is not reported by GACC.We calculatecapacity from the export value in US dollars(from the raw GACC customs data)and theaverage monthly PV module prices described above.This capacity value is indicative-
56、in reality modules will be traded at different pricesdepending on the destination,the module technology etc.It is a useful metric to comparetrends over time and between countries but it should not be taken as exact.Release ScheduleGACC releases the monthly solar export data with a one month lag(exce
57、pt for January andFebruary data,which are released together in March).The GACC release is usually available on the 20th of the month,and this dataset is updatedshortly afterwards.CaveatsGACC data records the first country solar cells and modules are exported to,which may notbe the final destination.
58、This is particularly evident for exports to the Netherlands which is amajor import hub for European countries.For example,in 2022,44 GW of solar moduleswere exported to the Netherlands compared to an estimated 4GW of new solar capacityinstalled within the Netherlands.The same may be true for other c
59、ountries acting as importhubs for neighbouring countries,and country data should be used with caution.16AcknowledgementsCover photoWorkers produce solar photovoltaic modules for export on the production line of a newenergy workshop in Haian,Jiangsu province,China.Credit:Sipa US/Alamy Stock Photo Ember,2023Published under a Creative Commons ShareAlike Attribution Licence(CC BY-SA 4.0).You are actively encouragedto share and adapt the report,but you must credit the authors and title,and you must share any material youcreate under the same licence.