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1、 EN 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the future Foresight 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the future European Commission Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Directorate A Policy Development and Coordination Unit A.2 Research&Innovation Strategy Contact Nikolaos Kastrinos
2、 E-mail nikolaos.kastrinosec.europa.eu RTD-PUBLICATIONSec.europa.eu European Commission B-1049 Brussels Manuscript completed in May 2019 re-edition November 2019 This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors,and the Commission cannot be
3、 held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.More information on the European Union is available on the internet(http:/europa.eu).Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use,which might be made o
4、f the following information.The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2019 PDF ISBN 978-92-76-13045-1 doi:10.2777/563770 KI-01-19-886-EN-N
5、 European Union,2019.Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU(OJ L 330,14.12.2011,p.39).For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the EU copyright,permission must be
6、sought directly from the copyright holders.Cover page image:Lonely#46246900,ag visuell#16440826,Sean Gladwell#6018533,LwRedStorm#3348265,2011;kras99#43746830,2012.Source:F.EUROPEAN COMMISSION 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the future The Radical Innovation Breakthrough Inquirer Authors Phi
7、line Warnke,Kerstin Cuhls,Ulrich Schmoch,Lea Daniel Fraunhofer ISI Liviu Andreescu,Bianca Dragomir,Radu Gheorghiu,Catalina Baboschi,Adrian Curaj Institutul de Prospectiv Marjukka Parkkinen,Osmo Kuusi University of Turku 2019 Directorate-General for Research and Innovation EN 2 Acknowledgements Our s
8、pecial thanks go to the foresight team of DG RTD,Nikolaos Kastrinos and Nathalie Vercruysse.They organized the workshops in Brussels,contributed to reports and workshop agendas,and supported the project with a lot of patience until the very end.The following collaborators have greatly contributed to
9、 the drafting of technological briefs that are presented in this report:Enache Vlad,Ungureanu Irina,Burinaru Tiberiu,Ilian Virgil,Vieru Vlad,Brabete Valentin,Cojocaru Ovidiu,Chihaia Viorel,Chiriac Alexandru,Tudorie George,Mitarca Monica,Popa Octavian,Ungureanu Viorel,Cosmescu Codruta,Matei Lilia,Sim
10、a Maria.We express our sincere appreciation to the distinguished panel of interviewees who shared their expertise and time to discuss Global Value Networks in fall 2017:Andr Alvarim,Anzori Barkalaja,Martin Bristol,Jennifer Cassingena Harper,Zoya Damianova,Tea Danilov,Martin Fatun,Patrick Garda,Anne
11、Guichard,Eric Hauet,Jozef Herko,Lars Klver,Sofi Kurki,Ira Van Keulen,Emmanuel Koukios,Alois Krtil,Jan Lesinsky,Tnis Mets,Katrien Mondt,Lszl Monostori,Michael Nentwich,Juan Carlos Paraj,Melanie Peters,Roberto Poli,Robert Redhammer,Ramojus Reimeris,Mari Rell,Anna Sacio-Szymaska,Rbert imoni,Peter De Sm
12、edt,Peter Stanovnik,Amos Taylor,Arnold Ubelis,Anders Vestergaard Jensen and Karl Westberg.In addition,we express our gratitude to Jurgita Petrauskien and Eugenijus Butkus for a discussion on the topic.A special“thank you”is given to the PhD Panel that filled in the survey on Global Value Networks an
13、d Radical Innovation Breakthroughs in spring 2018 under severe time pressure:Ernest Aigner,Divya Balakrishnan,Robert Emprechtinger,Laura Hille,Jan Janoec,Anton Jansson,Nikolaos Korakas,Ilya Kuzovkin,Daniel Alsina Leal,Ashish Rauniyar,Adrian Sima,Jaroslaw Skowronski,Amos Taylor,Fabiana Troisi,Irina U
14、ngureanu,Marjolein van der Waal.We are very thankful for the active contributions of the participants in our workshops in Brussels.The speakers of our workshop on Global Value Networks were Barbara Haering,E-Concept AG,Ezio Andreta,Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche,Adrian Curaj,Institul de Prospect
15、iva,Michael Keenan,OECD,Osmo Kuusi,Finland Futures,Andrea Renda,Center for European Policy Studies,Keith Smith,Imperial College London,and the Member of the Committee of the Future of the Parliament of Finland Ville Vhmki.Active groupwork participants were:Michele Acciaro,Khne Logistics University,A
16、manda Allertop Sorensen,Copenhagen EU Office,Antonio Alvarenga,ALVA RC,Carlos Alvarez-Pereira,Innaxis Foundation&Research Institute,Maria Boile,Hellenic Institute for transport,Michael Carus,Nova-Institute for Ecology&Innovation,Tea Danilov,Foresight Center,Dianne Dredge,Aalborg University,Charles F
17、eatherstone,Government Office for Science,Siliva Ganzerla,EUROCITIES,Kenisha Garnett,Cranfield University,Christian Grunwald,Z-Punkt Foresight Company,Olli Hietanen,University of Turku,Pierfrancesco Moretti,Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche,Augusta Maria Paci,Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche,Aape
18、 Pohjavirta,Funzi,Ramojus Reimeris,Research&Higher Education Monitoring and Analysis,Sybille Vandenhove,Bridging for Sustainability SPRL,Barend Van der Meulen,Rathenau Institute,Bosjan Vasle,Governmental Institute of Macroeconomics Analysis,Catherine 3 Whitelegg,German Federal Ministry for Education
19、 and Research,Alfred Wust,EAWAG,Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic S&T as our external guests;and from EU institutions Thomas Arnold,DG RTD,Olivier Chassagne,DG GROW,Nuno Eca Guimaraes,DG JUST,Elisabeta Florescu,JRC,Artur Furtado,DG SANTE,Laszlo Helmle,DG RTD,Ilona Lelonek Husting,DG GROW,Cristina M
20、arolda,DG MOVE,Elena Montani,DG ENV,Eamonn Noonan,Europan Parliament Research Service,Daniele Rechard,Europan Parliament Research Service,David Rios Morentin,DG HOME,Frank Smit,DG RTD,Vincent Viaud,European,Environment Agency.During the final RIBRI workshop,we discussed vividly with Thomas Arnold(RT
21、D),Laure Baillargeon(GROW),Florence Buchholze(AGRI),Olivier Chassagne(GROW),Fabrizio Colimberti(RTD),Phebe Dudek(RTD),Elizabeth Florescu(JRC),Jessica Giraldi(JRC),Georgios Kastrinos(RTD),Katerina Kokesova(RTD),Raphaela Kotsch(RTD),Carla Santos,Harald Stieber(JUST),Eckhard Stormer(JRC),Szekacs Szabol
22、cs(GROW),Luigi Vitiello(GROW)and Jyri Ylkanen(GROW).Thank you for the additional input!4 FOREWORD Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe are ambitious EU research and innovation programmes aiming at strengthening science,technology and innovation,fostering European industrial competiveness,and helping to a
23、chieve the Sustainable Development Goals.These ambitions will require a step-change in breakthrough innovation in Europe.The proposal for the European Innovation Council is at the heart of our ambitions for breakthrough innovations.But it is not alone.Breakthrough innovations are needed to boost the
24、 quality of our science as well as to address the many challenges faced by people today,individually as well as collectively.Our Horizon Scanning for Radical Innovation Breakthroughs is part of the preparation for Horizon Europes implementation.A massive automated survey of recent scientific and tec
25、hnical literature filtered through panels of experts has been combined with reviews of important recent foresight projects worldwide.The results have been screened for their potential impact on future global value creation,and assessed in terms of current maturity,long-term diffusion potential and r
26、elative strength of the EU in research and innovation.This report“100 radical innovation breakthroughs for the future”captures the most potentially impactful results.It provides a strategic resource to all those concerned with decisions on science,technology and innovation.For example,in EU research
27、 and innovation policy planning we need to understand the potential of breakthroughs as enablers or barriers to sustainability transitions.Such transitions involve interactions and potential synergies between different policies of the Union.The collection of radical innovation breakthroughs can crea
28、te common references between different policies and facilitate interactions.With the publication of this report,we hope to also contribute to national and regional strategies,be they on research and innovation priorities or on smart specialization.To improve the lives of people,our reflection about
29、the future should be inspired by the goals of sustainability in order to stretch the boundaries of what is feasible in function of what is desirable for people.Radical innovation breakthroughs are aspirational and inspirational.Scanning the horizon to identify them is a growing part of policy intell
30、igence.Jean-Eric PAQUET Director General for Research and Innovation European Commission 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 10 1 Introduction 18 2 Overview methodology 19 3 How to read the report 20 4 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs(RIBs)in technology 21 4.1 Group 1.Artificial Intelligence and R
31、obots 27 4.2 Group 2.Human-Machine Interaction&Biomimetics 79 4.3 Group 3.Electronics&Computing 97 4.4 Group 4.Biohybrids 125 4.5 Group 5.Biomedicine 141 4.6 Group 6.Printing&Materials 173 4.7 Group 7.Breaking Ressource Boundaries 198 4.8 Group 8.Energy 222 5 Radical Social Innovation Breakthroughs(
32、RSBs)254 6 Analysis of the Radical Innovation Breakthroughs 281 6.1 Social Innovation Breakthroughs(RSBs)281 6.2 Technology Innovation Breakthroughs(RIBs)281 7 The Global Value Networks 296 8 Drawing things together relationship between RIBs and GVNs 320 9 Conclusions 324 6 Radical Innovation Breakt
33、hroughs(RIBs)2D Materials 3D Printing of Food 3D Printing of Glass 3D Printing of Large Objects 4D Printing Airborne Wind Turbine Aluminium-based Energy Antibiotic Susceptibility Testing Artificial Intelligence Artificial Photosynthesis Artificial Synapse/Brain Asteroid Mining Augmented Reality Auto
34、mated Indoor Farming Biodegradable Sensors Bioelectronics Bioinformatics Bioluminescence Bionics(medicine)Bioplastic Bioprinting(of human parts)Blockchain Brain Functional Mapping Brain Machine Interface(BMI)Carbon Capture and Sequestration Carbon Nanotubes Chatbots Computational Creativity Computin
35、g Memory Control of Gene Expression Desalination Driverless Drug Delivery Emotion Recognition Energy Harvesting Epigenetic Change Technologies Exoskeleton Flexible Electronics 7 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs(RIBs)Flying Car Gene editing Gene Therapy Genomic Vaccines Geoengineering and Climate Eng
36、ineering Graphene Transistors High-precision Clock Harvesting Methane Hydrate Holograms Humanoids Hydrogels Hydrogen Fuel Hyperloop Hyperspectral Imaging Lab-On-A-Chip Marine and Tidal Power Technologies Metamaterials Microbial Fuel Cells Microbiome Molecular Recognition Molten Salt Reactor Nano-LED
37、s Nanowires Neuromorphic Chip Neuroscience of Creativity and Imagination Optoelectronics Plant Communication Plastic-Eating Bugs Precision Farming Quantum Computers Quantum Cryptography Regenerative Medicine Reprogrammed Human Cells Self-healing Materials Smart Tattoos Smart Windows Soft Robot Speec
38、h Recognition 8 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs(RIBs)Spintronics Splitting Carbon Dioxide Swarm Intelligence for undertaking practical tasks Targeting Cell Death Pathways Technologies for Disaster Preparedness Thermoelectric Paint Touchless Gesture Recognition Underwater Living Warfare Drones Waste
39、water Nutrient Recovery Water Splitting Radical Social Innovation Breakthroughs(RSBs)Access/Commons-Based Economy Alternative Currencies Basic Income Body 2.0 and the Quantified Self Car-free City Collaborative Innovation Spaces Gamification Life Caching Local Food Circles New Journalist Networks Ow
40、ning and Sharing Health Data Read/Write Culture:diversifying information gatekeepers Reinventing Education Global Value Networks(GVNs)Carbon retention for climate change mitigation Decent and meaningful life for elderly people Enabling mechanisms for self-organising communities Global Capacity for S
41、ocial Innovation 9 Global Value Networks(GVNs)Human and social security Individualised manufacturing close to the customer Peer to peer based consumption decisions Planning and infrastructure for liveable human settlements Pro-active health and self-care approaches Remote interaction with people and
42、 machines Security network against military and criminal attacks Smart transport Space as a global commons Sustainable energy solutions Sustainable food for all Sustainable housing Sustainable tourism Sustainable use of materials Sustainable use of water systems and resources User data markets Valid
43、 information and knowledge co-creation Virtual citizen interaction for entertainment,art and culture 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides insights on 100 emerging developments that may exert a strong impact on global value creation and offer important solutions to societal needs.We identified t
44、his set of emerging developments through a carefully designed procedure that combined machine learning algorithms and human evaluation.After successive waves of selection and refinement,the resulting 100 emerging topics were subjected to several assessment procedures,including expert consultation an
45、d analysis of related patents and publications.Having analysed the potential importance of each of these innovations for Europe,their current maturity and the relative strength of Europe in related R&D,we can make some general policy recommendations that follow.However,it is important to note that o
46、ur recommendations are based on the extremes of the distributions,and thus not all RIBs are named under the recommendations.Yet,the totality of the set of Radical Innovation Breakthrough(RIBs)and Radical Societal Breakthrough(RSBs)descriptions and their recent progress directions constitute an impor
47、tant collection of intelligence material that can inform strategic planning in research and innovation policy,industry and enterprise policy,and local development policy.Policy recommendations:1.Position Europe strategically for the forthcoming AI wave Artificial Intelligence is a cluster of innovat
48、ions that will have huge impact on the future world economy and society.The EU should position itself strategically vis-a-vis these innovations.The following RIBs are either directly contributing to AI by providing new software or hardware solutions or by tailoring AI approaches for specific applica
49、tions:Artificial intelligence(advanced deep learning algorithms)Computational creativity Artificial synapse/brain Brain functional mapping Computing memory Neuromorphic chip Chatbots Speech recognition Emotion recognition Touchless gesture recognition Swarm intelligence Driverless Flying Car Humanoi
50、ds Precision farming Automated indoor farming 11 Emotion recognition Emotion recognition has been traditionally applying advanced image processing algorithms to images(or videos)of the human face.But recent developments have extended the field to include other means of gauging emotions(text analysis
51、,tone of voice,heartbeat and breathing patterns,etc.),and even extending them to other species.Applications cover areas like marketing(detecting minute,subconscious reactions to advertising or products),smart devices that adapt to our mood,and law enforcement(improved lie detectors).In some of these
52、 areas,such as chatbots,Europe is already strong.These strengths should be fully exploited.In other areas,especially computing memory,capacities in Europe are weak and therefore efforts should be stepped up.At the same time,consolidating the application pathways emerging from the surge of innovation
53、s in algorithms and hardware in sectors like mobility,health,education and food seems at least as important as fostering the further emergence of newly upcoming innovations.Especially for Europe,it will be vital to pursue trajectories that unlock the potential of these technologies to support better
54、 solutions,which meet the needs of its citizens.2.Fast emerging innovations According to our results,there are 45 technologies(listed in table 7)that are currently at a low level of maturity,but are expected to develop fast and find important use in the coming 20 years.Among these,seven RIBs are esp
55、ecially fast moving:Neuromorphic chip Biodegradable sensors Hyperspectral imaging Warfare drones Harvesting methane hydrate Thermoelectric paint Neuroscience of creativity and imagination 4D printing Neuromorphic chip Neuromorphic chips are modelled on biological brains.They are less flexible and po
56、werful than the best general-purpose chips,but highly efficient for specialized tasks.Neuromorphic chips can boost the development of AI based systems for specific purposes such as object recognition,voice and gesture recognition,emotion analytics,health analytics or robot motion,and moderate their
57、power consumption.In some of the 45 fast moving technologies,Europes capacities show weaknesses:12 4D printing Bioluminescence Automated indoor farming Water splitting Computing memory Molten salt reactors Graphene transistors Energy harvesting Hyperloop 4D printing 4D printing adds an additional el
58、ement of time to 3D printing/additive manufacturing.4D-printed objects can change shape or self-assemble over time if exposed to a stimulus heat,light,water,magnetic field or other form of energy that activates the process of change.Among the ground-breaking applications expected are drug devices re
59、acting to heat changes of the body,shape memory materials allowing solar panels to auto-rotate towards the sun,and self-repairing infrastructures.Energy harvesting Converting energy from the environment into usable electricity involves an ever-expanding set of techniques that draw energy from the su
60、n,the wind,natural heat,and the movement and chemistry of human bodies.Combining solar cells and fibre-based triboelectric nanogenerators,scientists have developed a“hybrid-power textile”that generates electricity from both sunshine and flapping in the wind.In other such technologies Europe holds a
61、leading position:Harvesting methane hydrate Underwater living Bioplastics 3D printing of food Lab-on-a-chip Chatbots Quantum cryptography Marine and tidal power technologies Interestingly in the field of quantum cryptography,the EU leads in terms of patents,but China is taking the leadership in publ
62、ications.13 Bioplastics Bioplastics use as a source of carbon renewable natural feedstock such as e.g.corn,rice,potatoes,palm fibre,tapioca,wheat fibres,wood cellulose and bagasse.Depending on their chemical composition bioplastics may or may not be biodegradable.Research efforts focus on bioplastic
63、s solutions with substantially reduced environmental footprint.Applications include different industries like food and beverage packaging,health care,textiles,agriculture,automotive or electronics.Lab-on-a-chip A lab-on-a-chip(LOC)integrates laboratory functions into a single device of small dimensi
64、ons.Lab-on-a-chip promises better and faster diagnostics,especially in areas with poor healthcare infrastructure,a more active role of patients in monitoring their own health,as well as enabling citizens to engage in environmental monitoring.In the following fast moving areas,Europes capacities are
65、strong but not world leading:Speech recognition Neuromorphic chip Flexible electronics Gene editing Exoskeleton Swarm intelligence Blockchain Biodegradable sensors Hyperspectral imaging Biodegradable sensors Biodegradable sensors can be used as medical implants for temporary in-body sensing,drug del
66、ivery,tissue engineering,microfluidics,for tracking food and environmental sensing,whilst contributing to alleviating the problem of mounting electronic waste.Fast moving areas hold a lot of promise for important applications and positive economic impacts but also involve the potential for controver
67、sy and serious unintended social and environmental consequences.They include,for example,gene editing,warfare drones,harvesting methane hydrate and molten salt reactors,which are already controversial.3.Nourish capacities in highly speculative areas The expectation of an increasing rate of change an
68、d uncertainty of techno-economic patterns means that radical innovations can unfold very fast.Therefore,we should not ignore capacities in highly speculative areas such as:14 Neuromorphic chip Neuroscience of creativity and imagination Plant communication Spintronics Bioelectronics Aluminium-based e
69、nergy Airborne wind turbine Artificial Photosynthesis 4D Printing Asteroid mining Thermoelectric paint Artificial synapse/brain Flying car Bioelectronics Bioelectronics is the use of biological materials and architectures inspired by biological systems to design and build information processing mach
70、inery and related devices.Researchers hope to develop bio-inspired materials(e.g.capable of self-assembly or self-repair)and bio-inspired hardware architectures(e.g.massive parallelism)to be used in new sensors,actuators and information processing systems that are smaller,work faster/better and requ
71、ire less power.In the first eight RIBs of this list,Europe has promising capacities.In the other five(indicated in italics)its position is unclear or weak.To maintain and further advance the European position as a pioneering actor in newly emerging technologies it is important to create spaces where
72、 also highly speculative ideas with yet unclear perspectives find support and nourishment.This seems especially relevant for the three RIBs on this list that may contribute to the high impact AI cluster,namely neuromorphic chip,artificial synapse/brain and neuroscience of creativity and imagination.
73、The neuromorphic chip also deserves special attention because in spite of its low maturity expectations on its widespread use in 2038 are very high.4.Review enabling frameworks for mature technologies Some of the Radical Innovation Breakthroughs identified are quite mature-they have been known for a
74、 while,and are quite established in terms of R&D and patenting.At the same time,they have a great deal of unexploited growth potential in the perspective of 2038.Their technological maturity places them at the junction between research and innovation policy and industry policy concerns.These RIBs ar
75、e especially located in the area of nanotechnology(nano-LEDs,nanowires,carbon nanotubes),but also hydrogels and holograms fall into this category.Their further development is not so much a matter of research and innovation policy but more a subject for industry policy or other policies concerned wit
76、h the respective domains.It may be worthwhile checking whether appropriate regulatory frameworks and complementary social innovations are in place for successful and beneficial exploitation of these RIBs.Another question is whether an industry policy is needed to foster the European position in the
77、weaker mature areas such as carbon-nanotubes,nanowires and hydrogels.15 Hydrogels Hydrogels are natural or synthetic polymeric networks capable of holding large amounts of water that can replicate the dynamic signalling involved in biological processes,such as cell/tissue development.In the near fut
78、ure,hydrogels will provide the basis for first-aid kits and innovative drug development concepts.In the longer term we can imagine curative soft robots performing surgeries at microscopic and sub-microscopic levels,and hydrogels in mobile phone screens sensing environmental pollutants and informing
79、an app.5.Understanding and harnessing the waves of change In the results of our study,we see two distinct but interwoven waves of change.The first is the wave of information and communication technologies,which is still unfolding amidst important technological social innovations and concerns.The sec
80、ond wave is far less clear in its technological scope and is also shaped by substantially broader demand factors,such as the political and social imperatives associated with the UN Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).We expect the value creating structures and processes of the future to be significa
81、ntly shaped by the SDGs,often seeking to speed up positive technological transformations and to control negative externalities.The search for newly upcoming innovations in the SDG related arenas should be intensified.Interlinkages of environmental and health technologies with the ICT wave,and in par
82、ticular the AI cluster,should be systematically explored in order to exploit synergies and avoid conflicts.To sum up,European strength in science,technology and industry is necessary to ensure that Europe is competitive and able to achieve its objectives for its future.To be competitive,Europe needs
83、 to maximise the value and productivity of its investments in R&I,and this requires appropriate intelligence and coordination between relevant policies and strategies at EU,national and regional levels.We hope that the RIBRI study will nudge Europes authorities to further develop their intelligence
84、efforts,to identify key innovations of the future and to debate their usefulness and possible trajectories with maximum benefit for its citizens.The following picture summarizes the results of all 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs:16 Figure 1:Overview RIB Assessment 17 18 1 Introduction This stud
85、y set out to identify Radical Innovation Breakthroughs potentially important cross-cutting,disruptive innovations-that could be usefully considered in the development and implementation of:European Union Research and Innovation policy,especially in the implementation of Horizon Europe,European Union
86、 policies that are supported by the framework programme(e.g.security,environment,agriculture,health,etc.see Article 179 TFEU)and relevant strategies at national and regional level,including smart specialization.Radical Innovation Breakthroughs are not instant.They result from cumulative processes of
87、 multiple inventions and innovations,and their diffusion and adaptation to different circumstances.Their key characteristics are(a)an unusually high impact potential and(b)the potential to disrupt technical,economic and social structures.This study searched for future Radical Innovation Breakthrough
88、s in literature associated with the continuous efforts of people and society to innovate in technology such as peer reviewed journals from a range of S&T disciplines and platforms sharing cutting-edge S&T news.In this sense,most of the RIBs identified are technological innovations.People often draw
89、a distinction between technological and social innovations.New movements in society create knowledge about how to do things differently,often emphasizing behavioural aspects rather than the role of technical artefacts.This does not mean that technology does not play a role in social innovations.The
90、continuous effort for social innovation and improvement is part and parcel of human societies,but it is not organized in the same way as the effort for technological innovation.When searching for social innovations in literature,we came across trends that are already well diffused and established.Ho
91、wever,some of them contradict fundamental elements of social norms and systems and have thus considerable disruption potential,whilst opening up possibilities to solve important problems plaguing contemporary societies.The way in which technological and social innovations will combine to shape futur
92、e industries and sociotechnical regimes can be a matter of considerable uncertainty and speculation.We see so much disruptive potential around us that we are confident that the industries,sectors and value-chains of the future will not be like the ones of today.In order to evaluate the potential imp
93、act of future innovations,we considered a number of future global value creating structures,which we termed Global Value Networks,following the approach of the Finnish Radical Technology Inquirer(RTI).1 These structures represent a mixture of expectations(how things will be),wishes(how things should
94、 be)and appreciations of how things are.In each case,the defining characteristic is a network that is associated with a function for which there 1 Linturi,Risto,Osmo Kuusi and Toni Ahlqvist(2014)100 Opportunities for Finland and the World,the Radical Technology Inquirer(RTI),the English edition http
95、s:/www.eduskunta.fi/FI/tietoaeduskunnasta/julkaisut/Documents/tuvj_11+2014.pdf 19 is a global need,and therefore an actual or potential global market.We believe that the needs underpinning each GVN are significant and will be even more significant in the future.Thus,collectively,our GVNs are likely
96、to represent an important part of the global economy in 20 years time.2 Overview methodology The approach of this study is based on a methodology that was first developed in the context of the Finnish Radical Technology Inquirer(RTI).2 The first step was to create descriptions of future GVNs from a
97、European perspective.This was carried out through a set of interviews with 35 experts from 22 different European countries,aiming to adapt and enhance the GVN descriptions of the Finnish study to reflect an EU level appreciation of importance.The results were discussed at a workshop with experts and
98、 EU policy-makers,and were refined accordingly.In parallel,and independently from the effort to describe the GVNs,a large set of potential technological innovations was identified through a procedure that combined machine learning algorithms and human evaluation.After successive waves of refinement,
99、a list of 100 emerging topics has resulted.This iterative process,which is described in depth in section 4,is visualized in Figure 2.Figure 2:Process of RIB Selection Simultaneously,a set of potentially disruptive social innovations were identified through a meta-analysis of existing mapping exercis
100、es.3 2 Linturi,Risto,Osmo Kuusi and Toni Ahlqvist(2014)100 Opportunities for Finland and the World,the Radical Technology Inquirer(RTI),the English edition https:/www.eduskunta.fi/FI/tietoaeduskunnasta/julkaisut/Documents/tuvj_11+2014.pdf 3 The EU Projects CASI http:/www.casi2020.eu/and TEPSIE http:
101、/www.tepsie.eu/,OBSERVE https:/www.horizon-observatory.eu and the German BMBF Foresight II https:/www.zukunft-verstehen.de/application/files/4114/9001/1268/Social_Changes_2030_Band_103.pdf 20 The resulting technological and social innovations were then submitted to further assessments based on:1)A c
102、onsultation of experts from Europe and beyond,in addition to a panel of PhD students specialised in the RIB areas;(for details see Part II,section 1.3)2)An analysis of the patents and publications;(for details see Part II,section 1.5)By combining the outcomes of these elements,we formed three key in
103、dicators for each technological RIB and three for each societal practice RIB.Table 1 provides an overview of the sources behind each indicator.The details on the calculation of the indicators are provided in the Final Report,Part II,section 1.7(maturity),section 1.8(EU position),section 1.9(likeliho
104、od).In addition,we analysed the relationship between RIBs and GVNs.In the Final Report,Part II,chapter 2,we describe the outcomes of this analysis,which allows some conclusions to be drawn in regards to the impact of the RIBs on future value creation and societal needs.Table 1:Forming of the RIBRI i
105、ndicators Indicators RIBs Sources Likelihood of reaching market or significant use by 2038 Online expert consultation PhD panel assessment Current Maturity Scientometric Analysis(Level and Dynamics of Publications&Patents)European Position in R&I Expert Consultation,Scientometric Analysis(position o
106、f EU in Publications&Patents)Likelihood of significant expansion in Europe(RSB only)Expert consultation Likelihood of significant expansion globally(RSB only)Expert consultation 3 How to read the report Chapter 4 presents the important technological RIBs that form the main body of this study.For pre
107、sentation purposes,they have been clustered in thematic groups.Most RIBs are combinations of different elements,which form various directions of potential development.These are also described under each RIB.Chapter 5 presents the 13 emerging important societal practices or“Radical Social Innovation
108、Breakthroughs(RSBs)”that we identified.These practices have implications for the emergence of future value networks,as well as for 21 the direction of technological innovations,and can be supported or counteracted by policy.Chapter 6 presents the analysis of the societal and technological RIBs.In pa
109、rticular,we assess their likelihood of significant future use,their current maturity and Europes position in providing policy conclusions and recommendations,which are presented in the concluding chapter.Chapter 7 presents the 23 descriptions of Global Value Networks(GVNs)used to assess the future i
110、mportance of the innovations identified.We consider these to be possible future scenarios for important future global value creating structures.While we made considerable effort to create independent scenarios,there are at least two elements strongly present in many of the scenarios.One is the need
111、for sustainability and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.The other is the effects of information technology in general,and the combined effects of ubiquitous networks,data and artificial intelligence.We think that these are fundamental characteristics of how value will be created in
112、 the future and that they will combine in paradigmatic configurations such as those described by our GVNs.Finally,in chapter 8,we attempt a birds eye view on all these elements of possible future techno-economic paradigms and venture into some overarching observations.We conclude with chapter 9.The
113、final report consists of two parts.Part I gives an overview of the findings and describes the Radical Innovation Breakthroughs in detail.In Part II,we give full details on the individual methodological elements such as the components of the online expert consultation and the approach to scientometri
114、c analysis.Readers wishing to go deeper into the findings can refer to the raw results from the consultation,the scientometric analysis and the impact assessment in Part II.4 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs(RIBs)in technology In the following sections,we report the identified RIBs in eight thematic
115、 groups.The groups emerged from an automatic clustering based on a semantic analysis of the RIB texts.For each RIB,we first show a graph with the values the RIB achieved in the assessments we carried out.Then,the text presents first an overall description of the RIB followed by the more specific dir
116、ections where the sources claimed recent progress.The meaning of the indicators is as follows:Likelihood to reach the market or significant use by 2038:This indicator characterises the expectation of experts regarding the future development of this RIB over the next twenty years.For the social innov
117、ations,this indicator was replaced by Likelihood of significant expansion of this practice in Europe/the world.Maturity:This indicator describes the current status of the emerging technology.Low maturity(1)indicates first proof of concept or even first speculations,and very high maturity(5)suggests
118、that a technology is already applied in first products.The assessment rests on the review of related patents and publications.Low maturity has 22 also been assigned in cases where there is already a high level of patents but,a recent steep rise in publications and patents,suggests that important new
119、 directions may emerge.We did not apply this indicator to the social innovations.European Position:This indicator captures the strength of Europes current capability in research and innovation with regards to a technological RIB.Its assessment is based partly on expert assessment from the consultati
120、on and partly on the EUs share in patents and publications.We did not apply this indicator to the social innovations Table 1:Overview Technology RIBs(alphabetical order)RIB Name Group 2D Materials Printing&Materials 3D Printing of Food Printing&Materials 3D Printing of Glass Printing&Materials 3D Pr
121、inting of Large Objects Printing&Materials 4D Printing Printing&Materials Airborne Wind Turbine Energy Aluminium-based Energy Energy Antibiotic Susceptibility Testing Biomedicine Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence and Robots Artificial Photosynthesis Energy Artificial Synapse/Brain Huma
122、n-Machine Interaction&Biomimetics Asteroid Mining Breaking Resource Boundaries Augmented Reality Artificial Intelligence and Robots Automated Indoor Farming Artificial Intelligence and Robots Biodegradable Sensors Biohybrids Bioelectronics Biohybrids Bioinformatics Biohybrids Bioluminescence Energy
123、Bionics(medicine)Human-Machine Interaction&Biomimetics Bioplastic Breaking Resource Boundaries Bioprinting(of human parts)Biomedicine Blockchain Artificial Intelligence and Robots Brain Functional Mapping Human-Machine Interaction&Biomimetics Brain Machine Interface(BMI)Human-Machine Interaction&Bio
124、mimetics Carbon Capture and Sequestration Breaking Resource Boundaries Carbon Nanotubes Electronics&Computing Chatbots Artificial Intelligence and Robots Computational Creativity Artificial Intelligence and Robots Computing Memory Electronics&Computing Control of Gene Expression Biomedicine Desalina
125、tion Breaking Resource Boundaries Driverless Artificial Intelligence and Robots Drug Delivery Biomedicine 23 RIB Name Group Emotion Recognition Human-Machine Interaction&Biomimetics Energy Harvesting Energy Epigenetic Change Technologies Biomedicine Exoskeleton Artificial Intelligence and Robots Fle
126、xible Electronics Electronics&Computing Flying Car Artificial Intelligence and Robots Gene editing Biomedicine Gene Therapy Biomedicine Genomic Vaccines Biomedicine Geoengineering and Climate Engineering Breaking Resource Boundaries Graphene Transistors Electronics&Computing High-precision Clock Ele
127、ctronics&Computing Harvesting Methane Hydrate Energy Holograms Artificial Intelligence and Robots Humanoids Artificial Intelligence and Robots Hydrogels Printing&Materials Hydrogen Fuel Energy Hyperloop Breaking Resource Boundaries Hyperspectral Imaging Artificial Intelligence and Robots Lab-On-A-Ch
128、ip Biohybrids Marine and Tidal Power Technologies Energy Metamaterials Printing&Materials Microbial Fuel Cells Energy Microbiome Biomedicine Molecular Recognition Biohybrids Molten Salt Reactor Energy Nano-LEDs Electronics&Computing Nanowires Electronics&Computing Neuromorphic Chip Human-Machine Int
129、eraction&Biomimetics Neuroscience of Creativity and Imagination Artificial Intelligence and Robots Optoelectronics Electronics&Computing Plant Communication Biohybrids Plastic-Eating Bugs Breaking Resource Boundaries Precision Farming Artificial Intelligence and Robots Quantum Computers Electronics&
130、Computing Quantum Cryptography Electronics&Computing Regenerative Medicine Biomedicine Reprogrammed Human Cells Biomedicine Self-healing Materials Printing&Materials Smart Tattoos Human-Machine Interaction&Biomimetics Smart Windows Energy Soft Robot Artificial Intelligence and Robots Speech Recognit
131、ion Artificial Intelligence and Robots Spintronics Electronics&Computing Splitting Carbon Dioxide Breaking Resource Boundaries Swarm Intelligence for undertaking practical tasks Artificial Intelligence and Robots 24 RIB Name Group Targeting Cell Death Pathways Biomedicine Technologies for Disaster P
132、reparedness Breaking Resource Boundaries Thermoelectric Paint Energy Touchless Gesture Recognition Artificial Intelligence and Robots Underwater Living Breaking Resource Boundaries Warfare Drones Artificial Intelligence and Robots Wastewater Nutrient Recovery Breaking Resource Boundaries Water Split
133、ting Energy Most of the 100 RIBs and RSBs are collections or baskets of related developments.Since the RIBs were assembled primarily based on news reports,which usually describe one single piece of technology,the main challenge was to group the right technologies under the appropriate headings(the R
134、IB title).Generally,two broad approaches were used for this grouping:RIBs consist of developments related to each other in terms of either the science and technology they are based on(e.g.hydrogels)or in terms of the goals they serve(e.g.drug delivery).One consequence is that a piece of technology o
135、ccasionally features in two or more RIBs.For example,hydrogels have a dedicated RIB due to the number of diverse solutions using this type of material,but also appear in the context of efforts to build soft robots or to improve the delivery of therapeutic substances(For more details on designing the
136、 RIBs,see Part II,section 1.2.).In drafting the RIBs,experts worked,mostly with tech news reports.Since we make no claims as to the originality of the description of these technologies,we have cited our sources copiously.Where we felt it was necessary we also placed text between inverted commas.25 2
137、6 27 4.1 Group 1.Artificial Intelligence and Robots 4.1.1 Augmented Reality Figure 2:RIB Score of Augmented Reality Augmented Reality(AR)means overlaying computer generated imagery(or even sound)on our perception of the real world.From a technological perspective,augmented reality is a big challenge
138、 as it implies using a complex suite of sensors that can track the user position and points of attention and a good understand of the 3D environment.Currently,the mobile phone acts like a window through which the user can see the world with virtual objects overlaid on top of it,but augmented reality
139、 goggles allow the user to see the world through a transparent display that does not redraw the world.Such goggles are expensive and cumbersome but iterative development is improving them every few years.Recent progress directions Synchronization with the physical world The cornerstone of performing
140、 AR is the way the virtual projection integrates with the real world.It may sound simple,but it is not easy to completely overlap the human sensory system.Eyes must be tracked to compensate for their movement.4 The world must be scanned in 3D in order to synchronize5 the virtual world with it.Some c
141、ompanies are using special cameras for this6,but others are focusing on using commodity smartphone cameras to accomplish the same task while sacrificing performance.7 The device must also track people moving through the world.8 While people tracking augmented reality with facial recognition is contr
142、oversial from a social perspective,the technology continues to be improved in this direction and police are already deploying it.9 4 https:/www.theengineer.co.uk/sensor-tracks-eye-movements-in-real-time-to-enhance-virtual-reality 5 https:/ 6 https:/ 7 http:/www.3ders.org/articles/20161215-korean-gov
143、ernment-announces-affordable-3d-video-capture-technology-for-smartphones.html 8 http:/www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4001734/The-Shazam-faces-World-s-facial-recognition-smartphones-identify-faces-person-print-TV.html 9 http:/ 012345Current MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant u
144、se by2038 28 Live instructions The most promising professional application for augmented reality are interactive manuals giving live instructions to people working directly with a machine.In order to enable such applications,the AR device must be able to pick up objects from the world and turn them
145、into virtual objects in real time.10 Instructions can then be projected in relation to these virtual simulacrums.Car companies are already exploring the concept,but the most novel research is happening in the field dealing with the most complex machines of all:human medicine.Doctors are using augmen
146、ted reality to better guide them during surgery11,and it is hoped that this will drastically reduce the time spent in the operating room.Therapy Improving the health of long-term sufferers is a welcome application for any new technology.AR has already proven that it can help people with sensory issu
147、es such as phantom limb patients.12 This is successfully replacing bulky mirror systems that did not even work for all cases.Another application is to complement the missing sensory processing of autistic children13 by directly showing them hints of what they should do depending on the social contex
148、t.Recuperation protocols can be improved by showing patients virtual live models of their own movements14 allowing them to self-correct.Displays Forming an image very close to the eye is not an easy task.While some researchers try to miniaturize conventional very high-resolution displays15,others ar
149、e focusing on guiding and projecting the light rays16 in such a way that a clear image is built inside the eye.Since human eyes have many imperfections,such projection technologies can also be used to improve vision.17 Augmented reality with sound hile most AR solutions generate visual output,a prot
150、otype pair of glasses incorporating focused speakers enables different apps to trigger specific audio cues in relation to the objects in the estimated direction of the sight.18 10 http:/www.3ders.org/articles/20170728-purdue-scientists-developing-surfnet-ai-system-that-turns-2d-images-into-3d-models
151、.html 11 https:/www.theengineer.co.uk/augmented-reality-guides-surgeons-during-spine-cranial-and-trauma-surgery 12 http:/ http:/www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4900402/Google-Glass-app-tell-autistic-children-say.html 14 https:/www.theengineer.co.uk/ultrasound-augmented-tongue-speech-therapy
152、15 http:/www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4543270/Get-ready-MegaHD-Experts-reveal-technique-screens.html 16 http:/ 17 http:/ 18 https:/ 29 Long-term perspectives The ultimate goal of the currently competing technological solutions is to have an unobtrusive device that seamlessly overlays the
153、virtual world on top of the users natural senses.This device may be a pair of glasses,contact lenses or even a cybernetic implant to beam the virtual world directly into our nerves.While such devices are still far,companies are cautiously investing in this direction.For productivity,instead of being
154、 tied down to a PC monitor,a whole wall could serve as a desktop workspace.Teleconferencing would be as easy as looking across the table to the virtual representation of your colleague.For people working on site,plans for modifications would be overlaid directly in the room.No need to fumble with a
155、manual when augmented reality can show you how to fix an engine by highlighting the components that need intervention.The advertising industry is taking particular interest in augmented reality seeing it as both an opportunity and a threat.There is a great benefit to showing people personalized ads
156、in the real world,but those same people might want to install an augmented reality ad-blocker and stop seeing any billboards at all.Gaming is another great fit for the technology.No longer would computer games be tied to the living room.We have already seen a glimpse of this with the Pokemon Go mobi
157、le app.That game only implemented rudimentary augmented reality but the features garnered a large number of players.With seamless AR,every human would see his or her personalized version of the world.Imagine all what you see in your field of vision is translated into your language,or personalized si
158、gns that point you to your airplane seat,or the colour of the sky changing to fit your mood,or virtual pets following you everywhere.However,with everyone seeing things their own way there is no telling how society would change.4.1.2 Automated Indoor Farming Figure 3:RIB Score of Automated indoor fa
159、rming There are a number of reasons to move farming indoors.In areas with high radioactivity such as those experiencing the aftermath of nuclear disasters,there are fears that traditionally grown produce could contain radioactive fallout.In other areas,a desert environment,lacking in water resources
160、 or other geographical factors,may pose challenges for growing vegetables.In 012345Current MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 30 such cases,factory farming,which is mostly indoors,may be viable and scalable.Recent progress direction Fully automated farming process Japanese
161、 companies are advancing fast in robotic indoor farming that is stable in any climate condition.More than 200 plant factories in Japan are capable of harvesting 20,000 heads of lettuce daily.19 Their lettuce is grown hydroponically,in a nutrient-rich gelatinous substance in a sterile environment in
162、vertical stacks under LED lights.One example is Spread,a company running“a giant factory farm that grows lettuce”in Kameoka,Kyoto Prefecture and another one at the plant factory at Kansai Science City.20 The so-called vertical farms allow for a highly efficient use of water.At the same time,automati
163、on of outdoor farming is also progressing quickly.Guided by artificial intelligence systems,machines carry out classical farming tasks such as raising seedlings,replanting and harvesting but also animal husbandry.Techno farming in extreme conditions The concept of indoor factory farm is now being ex
164、ported to the Middle East,where the desert environment,lack of water resources and other geographical factors pose challenges for growing vegetables.Long-term perspectives Some people think that,in the long run,agriculture could become fully automatized,first in areas with a lack of human workers an
165、d extreme conditions and then around the globe.This could have disruptive impacts areas in like food culture,sustainability,social fabric and,last but not least,employment.19 https:/www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2017/03/10/food/indoor-farms-next-step-evolution-agriculture/#.Wp8CCE0m52s 20 https:/www.jap
166、antimes.co.jp/life/2017/03/10/food/indoor-farms-next-step-evolution-agriculture/#.Wp8CCE0m52s 31 4.1.3 Blockchain Figure 4:RIB Score of Blockchain The blockchain is a technology that allows people who do not know each other to organize a network to keep trusted records.Once recorded on a blockchain
167、a piece of information cannot be changed.The most common application is that of a“distributed ledger”that keeps track of transactions.This solves,among others,the problem of double spending digital money(or other information).Using the blockchain,digital data can have an owner recognized by everyone
168、 in the network.The blockchain is also the technology at the core of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.The way this network functions is a matter of debate and different implementations have sparked new ideas and development directions outside the original scope of the concept.At its core,a blockchain i
169、s a data structure consisting of a linked list that is cryptographically secured so that its elements cannot be altered after they have been set.Unfortunately,it also comes with a cost,as the energy consumption for Bitcoin mining is estimated to be comparable to that of Ireland and increasing.21 Rec
170、ent progress directions Trust and notarization As data registered on the blockchain is immutable,data(“hashes”)in any document can be stored there and verified at any point in the future.This is bringing considerable disruption to the field of notarization by removing the human intervention from the
171、 loop and providing anonymity.22 Companies are interested in storing the data about their product in immutable databases.23 This way they will be able to reliably trace any information about their 21 https:/ https:/ 23 https:/ MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 32 products
172、 when queried.24 This has the potential to improve operations considerably and reduce the legal burden considerably.Smart contracts Code that transacts the digital assets is being made to be self-executing by registering it on the specific blockchain itself.25 This means that any transaction that re
173、quired escrow can now use a smart contract instead.Furthermore,any money processing operation(exchanging currency,routing or even gambling)can be implemented as a smart contract.In practice,every member of the blockchain network gets a readable copy of the code.26 The validating nodes of the blockch
174、ain network then execute the stored code when the prerequisite conditions are met.Transactions executed by smart contracts need to be done in cryptocurrency(Bitcoin,Ethereum and so on).It is hoped that this use case of cryptocurrencies will further legitimize their existence in the financial sector.
175、Private corporate blockchain networks Not all networks have to be public and as such business and IT companies are investing considerable resources in developing private blockchain networks27,28 that can be deployed as easily as cloud infrastructure29,30 for any need a company might have.These priva
176、te blockchains could be used for storing data,certification or even some tightly controlled form of cryptocurrency.Proof of Stake Protocol Currently,the main method for mining is“proof of work”,in which the miners competition involves a process of generating signatures repeatedly until one guesses c
177、orrectly a random number,the consumption of energy being immense.31 An alternative method called“proof of stake”,which select validators based in part on the size of their respective monetary deposits(their stake)is currently under review to be adopted by Ethereum,one of the leading cryptocurrency n
178、etwork.32 Long-term perspectives A blockchain-enabled world without central controlling authorities might happen through decentralized networks,providing a neutral and fair result to 24 http:/ https:/ https:/ 27 http:/ https:/ 29 https:/ https:/ 31 https:/ https:/ all possible transactions.Presently
179、,companies are seeing blockchain technology as an opportunity to increase traceability in their own business.Perfect immutable records can be kept without any hassle or risk of contamination.They can be verified at any time by anyone on the network.This can be used to boost the transparency of an en
180、deavour.As such,the blockchain is accepted by public groups and private companies as a future infrastructure for honest business.Most if not all leading companies in technology are interested in deploying blockchain implementations relevant to their fields.4.1.4 Chatbots Figure 5:RIB Score of Chatbo
181、ts Chatbots,short for“chatting robots”,are computer programs which conduct real-time conversations with humans,via written text or live audio.Designing a chatting machine that would be as adept at conversations as an ordinary person has fuelled computer scientists imagination and ambition ever since
182、 1950,when British mathematician Alain Turing framed that challenge as a famous benchmark for artificial intelligence.Until recently,software research around chatting programs only progressed at a slow pace and did not yield notable results.During the last years,however,significant software and hard
183、ware advances in natural language processing,machine learning,and cloud computing have given rise to a host of widely available chatbots,employed for personalized(albeit still limited)conversations.Some chatbots are standalone applications.Others are integrated in messenger applications,social platf
184、orms and larger IT ecosystems,on a range of digital devices.While many chatbots are aimed at assisting with specific tasks(such as placing shopping orders or finding out the weather forecast),the range of chatbot capabilities and uses is quickly expanding,spanning areas such as banking,telecom and e
185、ntertainment.Recent progress directions Unscripted,AI-powered chatbots Traditionally,chatbots have followed a set of predefined rules and scripts,looking for certain words and providing predefined answers to predefined questions.This paradigm has often led to an underwhelming user experience.Newer c
186、hatbots are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies(such as 012345Current MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 34 Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning),allowing them to be more flexible in terms of user input and blurring the line between chatbots and vir
187、tual assistants like Siri,Cortana or Google Assistant.Machine learning techniques(and,in particular,Deep Learning models)enable the automatic training of chatbots,mitigating the issue of question variants.Businesses can program AI-powered chatbots to pull information from a trove of available data a
188、nd self-improve over time:the more they are used,the more they are learning and the better they are getting.The end result is that an unscripted chatbot has fewer limitations:it is far more likely to understand a question and to provide a helpful answer when a response does not fit a narrow script.E
189、ven when a chatbot is unsure about what the user exactly asked,it can attempt to offer multiple options rather than defaulting to the standard(and dreaded)response:“I dont know”.33 Technology reuse and integration with major platforms Most major high-tech players have invested significant resources
190、in the development of chatbots and virtual assistants.Having developed competing technologies,the big consumer-facing IT companies have integrated chatbots and virtual assistants in their messaging platforms and ecosystems.Besides deploying chatbot services directly to end users,the companies have a
191、lso opened up their conversational technologies to outside developers.In April 2016,Facebook announced support for chatbots in its very popular Messenger system34,leading to a flurry of Messenger chatbots launched by third parties(jumping from 30,000 to 100,000 within a single year),alongside notabl
192、e hype.One can use dedicated chatbots to book an appointment or to order a Uber ride,directly in the Messenger platform.35 Googles 2016 Allo,a smart instant messaging app,allows people to chat directly with Google Assistant and receive,for example,restaurant or movie suggestions.Besides integrating
193、Cortana,the AI assistant,into its core products,Microsoft launched Bot Framework,a set of programming tools for chatbot developers,in early 2016.Over 130,000 developers have since registered for the service.Microsofts two chatbots for Chinese and Japanese users,Xiaoice and Rinna,launched in 2014 and
194、 2015,have been used by millions as information providers but also for interaction at a personal and emotional level,perhaps in part due to techno-cultural proclivities.Apple and Amazon are also pushing further the development of their own smart assistants,SIRI and Alexa,which embed chat functions.I
195、n April 2017,Amazon made Amazon Lex a set of conversation tools also used by Alexa generally available to other companies.In Europe,Telia,Scandinavias largest operator of mobile,fixed and broadband services,announced in the summer of 2018 the launch of A Conservational Engagement(ACE).This customer
196、relations platform adds the 33 http:/www.information- 34 There were 1.2 billion registered users in mid-2016(https:/ https:/ 35 latest AI technologies to a pre-existing chatbot ecosystem already in use elsewhere on the continent(such as by electricity giant E.ON).36 Enterprise and Customer Service A
197、pplications Chatbots are increasingly used for customer care across a spectrum of fields,including commerce,banking and telecom.In customer service,the focus is on solving a customer query,rather than on personalization and good conversational skills.Generally,chatbots are complementing and assistin
198、g customer service representatives(CSR)in order to reduce workload,rather than replace the latter.They are mostly used to handle routine questions,retrieve information from technical databases,and redirect calls or inquiries.The financial sector is increasingly testing and deploying chatbots.While l
199、egacy banks seek to supplement their core products,a number of fintech startups have built chatbots as core products.Supported transactions include balance checking,bill paying and money transfers,such as the daily transfer of small amounts into savings(microsaving).37 While traditional banks are so
200、mewhat slower to adapt,they do not sit still either.In Scandinavia,banking giants SEB,Swedbank and Nordea have introduced Aida,Nina,and Nova,respectively,in 2018,after several years of internal tests.These AI-powered assistants have emotion-sensing and other state-of-the-art capabilities.38 Across t
201、he oceans,Australian giant NAB has developed a virtual banking assistant powered by AI which is able to answer more than 200 common questions relating to business banking accounts,with 13,000 variants,extracted from real-life customer enquiries.When the bot cannot answer a question,a human banker ta
202、kes over.39 In early 2017,a survey undertaken in Australia suggested consumers were warming to bots,although 56%still preferred to interact with a human.40 Long-term perspectives While a general-purpose chatbot on par with humans is not expected in the foreseeable future,chatbots will likely evolve
203、and enter the mainstream,as they are getting progressively better at understanding and responding to user questions and commands.As chatbots get smarter and smart assistants get chattier,the line between chatbots and smart assistants will further blur.The future of chatbots(as well as virtual assist
204、ants)is linked to the future of Artificial Intelligence.Assuming continued advances in AI algorithms and chips(and,particularly,in NLP),AI powered chatbots will get better and better at understanding the intent behind a humans question,as well as at providing meaningful answers in a variety of conve
205、rsational scenarios.Future chatbots could lead to rich conversational user interfaces,allowing users to 36 https:/ http:/ 38 https:/ 39 https:/.au/article/626835/nab-taps-power-ai-chatbots-business-customer-service 40 https:/.au/article/619915/report-aussies-happy-talking-chatbots 36 naturally inter
206、act with a trove of devices(including computers,smartphones,robots,smart homes)rather than using all kinds of graphical interfaces and applications.4.1.5 Computational Creativity Figure 6:RIB Score of Computational Creativity Computers are now capable of producing output that is(almost)indistinguish
207、able from human works.41 They use software,which assesses information,identifies a gap and then uses the best elements at its disposal to create something brand new.In other words,computers are not randomly mixing existing data;instead,they use scientific methodologies and,by merging existing featur
208、es,produce creative results.Recent progress direction Computers are capable of creating original art,ideas and solutions that look as much human-generated as the work appearing at major art fairs or coming out of well-established think tanks.The semi-autonomous AI systems producing these works are s
209、upported by human designers.They are programmed by humans,but identify new avenues,new solutions,and new ideas by having no preconceived limitations and by using massive amounts of processing power.Alongside Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing,as well as computational perception and con
210、textual awareness42,Computational Creativity is an integral part of finding solutions.“The AI can explore a space,identify things that are potentially interesting,and then present them to a designer to follow up on.“43 Some machines can also teach themselves-a special AI(AutoML)can now pick out spec
211、ific objects in images better than any other computer vision 41 https:/ 42 http:/ https:/ MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 37 system.44 This is an AI form effectively created by another AI,training only on rules and large swaths of data.In some domains,“ignorance of trad
212、ition and precedent is a clear weakness for an AI system“45,but in finding new designs it represents“a strength that could unlock new creativity.Moreover,it could help managers and designers lower the cost of producing new strategies and products“.46 Long-term perspectives Creativity through AI will
213、 play an ever-increasing role in the future,augmenting humans in their quests and problem solving,besides the automation of menial tasks.The next frontier is using increasingly sophisticated machine-learning techniques to design entirely new kinds of objects or strategies that have,to date,evaded th
214、e human imagination.4.1.6 Driverless Figure 7:RIB Score of Driverless For a long time,the driver was thought to be indispensable for any type of vehicle.While an autopilot that can handle long monotonous sections without obstacles was considered standard for water and air vehicles,no solution was av
215、ailable for land vehicles.Autopilots also failed completely when encountering even small disruptive elements.Thus,the driver remained central to the operation of any vehicle.Even fiction did not stray from this idea too much,as most visions of the future lacked any truly self-driving vehicles.This a
216、ll changed when the DARPA grand challenge proved that driverless vehicles were not only possible,but within our grasp.Surprisingly,self-driving technology was not descended from autopilot systems.Instead,it was an extension of autonomous robotics research.For decades,roboticists had developed many a
217、lgorithms for autonomous robots without much thought of practical applications outside the lab.Blue-sky research into small(person-sized)robots,which could roam around on their own,turned out to be relatively easy to scale up.Turning a traditional car into a self-driving car 44 http:/ https:/ https:
218、/ 012345Current MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 38 boiled down to equipping it with enough sensors and computers to essentially turn it into a large autonomous robot.The winners of the DARPA grand challenge were not perfect.In fact,their performance was amusing sometime
219、s.However,they proved to the world that it could be done.Suddenly everyone could envision a world where the driver is not a mandatory part of any moving vehicle.The world braced for the inevitable appearance of self-driving cars and the extinction of driving as a requirement(or even a job)but the re
220、volution has been reluctant to make itself felt.It turns out that all the sensors and computers needed to make a car self-driving are very expensive.Not only that,but they are very fragile.Nobody wants to equip a car with electronics worth many times more than the car itself and replace the failing
221、ones in a few weeks.Furthermore,real world behaviour of human drivers appears to be hard to anticipate as it varies wildly from day to day and region to region.This set of problems refocused research on creating self-driving vehicles with fewer,cheaper sensors and making the vehicles themselves capa
222、ble of learning.These efforts are intertwined,as the most efficient way of making a self-adjusting system with few sensors is by making it capable of learning.Unfortunately,this brings us into uncharted territory.“Robodrivers”resulting from learning algorithms are not fully understood even by their
223、designers.Some experts are quick to raise the alarm and deem them unpredictable.Questions have arisen about how self-driving vehicles would handle ethical dilemmas.Although much safer than human drivers,such vehicles might accidentally injure or kill someone.Engineers believe this is a non-issue bec
224、ause systems prefer inaction to making moral choices,but critics are not convinced.Despite the criticism,industry is moving ahead.Every major company involved in vehicles(land,sea,air or any other kind)is investing significant resources to bring this technology comfortably to market.While the public
225、 deployment of the technology will not be as sudden as originally thought,it will slowly start to change things.The long-term effects are still undetermined.As the transportation industry changes,it usually induces significant change in all other fields connected to it.Recent progress directions New
226、-generation sensors Since one of the main obstacles to wide availability of driverless technologies is the relative cost and complexity of sensors,a lot of effort goes into finding new ways to perceive the world.Modulated electromagnetic waves are already omnipresent in our world so maybe they can a
227、lso be used to guide47 driverless vehicles.The general idea would be to cover the blind spots and imperfections of GPS and other traditional navigation signals so that fast moving driverless signals do not have to always rely on them.Instead of building a perfect representation of the environment in
228、 the computer memory,several companies are trying to train the computer to think using more limited data.Car companies will try to outfit regular cars 47 http:/ 39 with enough sensors to build a rough understanding of the driving environment48 and then train a computer49 to link the environment to w
229、hat the human driver is doing.Even the“traditional”LIDAR(laser radar)is being augmented50 in order to see through foliage and bad weather.Some are looking to replace LIDAR completely with special cameras51 that capture“light fields”.These light feed cameras operate passively and absorb so much infor
230、mation about the light rays entering them that a computer can reconstruct the 3D environment the camera films.Another novel approach involves turning the sensors inward to allow driverless vehicles to sense themselves and predict breakdowns.52 Man-machine synergy From an interface design point of vi
231、ew,driverless vehicles are unexpectedly complicated.If the vehicle is expected to carry humans,it must communicate with them in an intuitive and clear way.This means outfitting the vehicle with internal sensors53 dedicated to passenger analysis.The problem is compounded if there is a fall back syste
232、m allowing a human driver to take control of the vehicle.Direct brain interfaces have been explored as a solution54 allowing the human to direct the vehicle while the vehicle can monitor the mental state of occupant.Even if it is not expected to carry humans,a driverless vehicle must be able to inte
233、ract with humans it may encounter in the environment.To this end,algorithms are being developed that can analyse humans instantly55 in order to understand their movement and intent.Legislation Many developers see legislation as an obstacle to the development of driverless vehicles,but many jurisdict
234、ions have proven to be supportive rather than disruptive.When it comes to land vehicles,it has been decided that the definition of driver is outdated56,as it does not describe who may be in control of the car.California,with its many tech companies,has gone a step further by allowing driverless cars
235、 to operate without any human inside57,while making the owner of the vehicle responsible for the actions of the computer in control of the vehicle.48 http:/ 49 https:/ 50 https:/www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-06/tos-stf062717.php 51 https:/ 52 https:/ http:/ 54 http:/ https:/www.eurekalert.org
236、/pub_releases/2017-07/cmu-act070617.php 56 http:/robohub.org/nhtsa-redefines-driver-of-self-driving-car/57 http:/robohub.org/california-proposes-driverless-car-rules/40 The high seas continue to enjoy a special status even in this new age.There is currently no legislation governing autonomous ships5
237、8 and companies are eager to take advantage of this.Connectivity When a vehicle is continuously moving through a landscape at high-speed,connectivity becomes a true problem.Traditional data connections become hard to maintain and the driverless vehicle cannot broadcast or receive the data it needs.S
238、tate of the art telecom infrastructure is being developed with this in mind.59 The complete opposite approach is to have many autonomous vehicles communicate with each other60 to create a mesh network.In this way,only a few vehicles at a time would be able to relay all the data to the outside world.
239、Of course,the last resort is to develop a vehicle that can operate completely autonomously61,but even such a vehicle would benefit from a means to connect reliably to the internet if needed.As for the occupants,turning the vehicle itself into a communication hub62 would mean the devices inside will
240、connect to it using standard protocols,while the special antennas of the vehicle handle outside connections.Long-term perspectives The concentrated effort to create fully autonomous driverless vehicles continues.However,despite the transnational resources devoted to developing the technology,the vis
241、ion is not as clear as many originally thought.The promise of having wide scale deployment of completely autonomous driverless vehicles by 2020 is unlikely to be realised.Instead,companies are focusing on creating almost-autonomous vehicles that can safely let a human take control during unforeseen
242、situations.This might be an attractive option,but several groups have pointed out that people will slowly be deskilled by self-driving systems.As a consequence,humans might not be able to react better than a computer.In the commercial sector it is precisely this conundrum that is keeping jobs modera
243、tely secure.Professional drivers are still expected to perform better than computers.One can envision a future in which self-driving vehicles handle most of the tasks while human drivers are available to step in whenever needed.In the long term,once completely self-driving vehicles become the norm,s
244、ociety will start to experience paradigm shifts.Workers will be able to use the time usually wasted on commuting.Private car ownership might not be attractive to many people anymore.Transportation is set to become a commodity regardless if it is by land,air or sea.Businesses owners envision many pos
245、sibilities.Food trucks may roam the city serving food by app.Innovative package delivery systems would combine trucks and drones to 58 https:/ http:/ http:/ https:/ 62 http:/ deliver shopping without human intervention.Fully unmanned container ships that are impossible for pirates to attack may beco
246、me a reality.Some are even looking to flying driverless cars as a possibility.The impact on the broader society is likely to be major,and most likely impossibly to fathom at this point.At the least,urban infrastructure will adapt to better-fit self-driving vehicles.Plans include roads dedicated to s
247、elf-driving,zero signal intersections,or even subterranean tunnel networks in which no human would be allowed to drive.The real-estate market will also be amongst the first to react to such changes,but the direction of change is not well understood.The question many are asking is how will housing pr
248、ices be impacted if its easier to commute.One scenario is that easy accessibility for the suburbs will drive up prices by drastically raising demand.Another possible scenario is that increased accessibility to more land will mean supply of suburban space will outstrip demand,leading to a sharp drop
249、in housing prices.It is truly hard to pinpoint an industry that will not be affected by ubiquitous driverless vehicles.As such,it is tempting to prepare legislation in advance in an effort to safeguard against radical changes.However,this might hamper development.Overregulated societies will miss ou
250、t on the massive growth technology brings.To avoid stagnation,governments of many countries have chosen to support companies in this sector and ensure a harmonious evolution of legislation alongside technology.4.1.7 Exoskeleton Figure 8:RIB Score of Exoskeleton An exoskeleton is an external,artifici
251、al structure designed to be worn in order to compensate or enhance natural(i.e.biological)physical abilities.It is built using robotics and biomechatronics and consists of a wearable device that works in tandem with the user.Being placed on the persons body and acting as an augmenting amplifier,it r
252、einforces or restores human mechanical performance.Materials for building exoskeletons can be rigid,such as(light)metals,plastics or carbon fibre,or the framework can made out of elastic and soft components.“Exoskeletons can be powered and equipped with sensors and 012345Current MaturityEuropean Pos
253、itionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 42 actuators,or they can be passive(non-powered)”.63 Depending on the intended use,exoskeletons“can cover the entire body,just the upper or lower extremities,or even a specific body segment such as the ankle or the hip.”64 Recent progress directions Medical
254、applications One of the main fields of applications is in the medical field,where exoskeletons are used to help restore patients limb movement.For example,by exercising in an exoskeleton linked to a brain-computer interface,paralyzed patients were able to regain partial movement and muscle control.6
255、5 Scientists discovered that an exoskeleton“could restore multiple sclerosis patients balance and some of their walking capability.”66 In addition,it seems that an exoskeleton may help children with cerebral palsy overcome crouch gait.67 For the elderly,a waist-down exoskeleton learns the wearers st
256、ride and can detect and counteract the loss of balance.68 Other“proofs of concept”include:a wearable robotic leg with natural knee movement69,and regular fabric coated with an electroactive material that acts as muscle fibres and could be incorporated into clothes.70 Military applications While Sci-
257、Fi fans and video game players are excited to see“full body armor suits”looking like those in Star Wars71 or Iron Man72,for now they are far from useful military devices.On the other hand,it seems that something that could be really used on the battlefield is an exo-suit“with pulleys and gears desig
258、ned to reduce the musculoskeletal stress typically experienced by soldiers.”73 Industrial applications Physical stress,fatigue and the danger of injury also affect civil workers.Companies are beginning to explore the benefits of exoskeletons for 63 https:/ https:/ https:/ 66 https:/ https:/ https:/
259、https:/www.theengineer.co.uk/wearable-exoskeleton-mimics-human-knee/70 https:/phys.org/news/2017-01-muscles-power.html 71 https:/ https:/defensemaven.io/warriormaven/land/special-ops-advances-iron-man-suit-2018-ER6wHPJ9WUq_PJaBOyI0Kg/73 http:/ example a spring-loaded vest designed to reduce shoulder
260、 injury.74 A team of researchers developed a modular exoskeleton for heavy physical work that comes with three components:one supports the back of a man,another the shoulders,another his legs.Tests have shown it reduces the load on back muscles by up to 60%.75 Also promising is a passive,non-powered
261、 exoskeleton that transfers the weight of heavy tools to the ground,helping relieve workers fatigue.76 Ford employees in 15 plants globally who perform repetitive overhead tasks now have assistance from an upper body exoskeleton,which provides lift assistance from five pounds to 15 pounds per arm.77
262、 Long-term perspectives The most mature applications of exoskeletons seem to be medical:they will help patients recover from paralysis,multiple sclerosis,cerebral palsy and other debilitating conditions.Gradually the exoskeletons could become widely used by the elderly.New industrial equipment could
263、 become closer to exoskeletons,increasing the integration of human decision and body action.Military full-body armours,however,are very challenging because of their power problem:they need a lot of power,and thus huge batteries78 which are inconvenient on the battlefield.In the near future,we will p
264、robably see only light military exo-suits that offer modest assistance/support.4.1.8 Hyperspectral Imaging Figure 9:RIB Score of Hyperspectral imaging“Hyperspectral Imaging(HSI)is one of these powerful analytical imaging tools based on the detection of both spatial and spectral information within a
265、single data set,referred to as a HSI cube.Originally conceived for remote 74 https:/ 75 http:/cwt.top/en/news/1274/modular-exoskeleton-for-heavy-physical-labor 76 http:/www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4444224/The-Iron-Man-arm-workers-superhuman-strength.html 77 https:/ 78 http:/ MaturityEuro
266、pean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 44 sensing,HSI has impacted fields as diverse as food inspection and forensics.The power of HSI lies in the ability to determine the chemical composition of a sample based on characteristic spectral signatures.“79“The goal of hyperspectral imaging is
267、 to obtain the spectrum for each pixel in the image of a scene,with the purpose of finding objects,identifying materials,or detecting processes.“80 Hyperspectral imaging holds promise for use in fields ranging from security and defence to environmental monitoring and agriculture.Conventional imaging
268、 techniques,such as digital photography,capture images across only three wavelengths of light,from blue to green to red.Hyperspectral imaging creates images across hundreds of wavelengths.These images can be used to determine the materials found in whatever scene was imaged sort of like spectroscopy
269、 done at a distance.“81 79 https:/ 80 https:/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperspectral_imaging#cite_note-Chang2003-1 81 https:/ 45 Recent progress direction Medical Hyperspectral imaging is an attractive technique in medical treatment and diagnosis thanks to its non-contact and minimally invasive nature.S
270、earching for cancer tumours,researchers obtained a very good correlation between the real positions of the tumours seen by clinicians and the automatic predictions made by a hyperspectral imaging system.82 Hyperspectral imaging could also improve in vitro fertilization(IVF)success rates,by providing
271、 a more objective assessment of the health of early-stage embryos.83 Researchers tested an SRDA-based(Spectrally Resolved Detector Array)HSI camera for fluorescence imaging,well suited for use in an endoscopy suite or operating theatre.SRDAs are extremely compact,robust,and“have the potential to be
272、produced at very low cost.“84“Early applications of snapshot SRDA have shown promise in neurosurgery and ophthalmology.“85 Food Quality“Fruit quality represents a combination of properties and attributes that determine the suitability of the fruit to be eaten as fresh or stored for a reasonable peri
273、od without deterioration and confer a value regarding consumers satisfaction.“86 Until now,internal qualities such as firmness,soluble solids content,and acidity could only be measured using destructive,time-consuming and inefficient methods.Scientists have demonstrated that hyperspectral imaging,co
274、mbined with image processing algorithms,is a fast and non-invasive method to accurately predict the quality attributes of kiwifruits.87 Using a combination of digital imaging,spectroscopy and machine learning,food companies can take a picture of food,analyse the unique spectral reflections of the li
275、ght,and determine nutritional content,fat and protein content and freshness level.With this automated and non-invasive technique,researchers hope to improve the quality and freshness of food available and reduce food waste.Systems that can work with beef,white fish,bananas and avocados are already a
276、vailable.88 Mining With known sources of some essential metals facing depletion within the next few decades,there is more pressure on pursuing alternatives to existing mining exploration technologies.Hyperspectral imaging makes use of the fact 82 http:/optics.org/news/9/1/14 83 http:/optics.org/news
277、/8/8/43 84 https:/ 85 https:/ 86 https:/ 87 https:/ 88 https:/thespoon.tech/impactvision-raises-1-3m-to-combat-food-waste-with-hyperspectral-imaging 46 that all objects possess a unique spectral fingerprint based on the wavelengths of visible and invisible light that they absorb and reflect.“89 Some
278、 companies approach mineral discovery using high resolution hyperspectral imaging and machine learning.90 Recycling Conventional vision systems often fail to sort items that have similar colours or appearances.In these cases,hyperspectral data combined with spatial pattern recognition algorithms can
279、 detect a wide range of materials,patterns,coatings,defects and contaminants.Hyperspectral vision systems generate data for quality control and also transmit information to robotic actuators,enabling automated picking and sorting of commodities.91 For example,a new generation of multispectral and hy
280、perspectral cameras are capable of increasing the purity of many recycled materials to close to 100%.92 Security A company developed a“standoff hyperspectral imaging technology and analytical software to detect explosive,narcotic or chemical residues that may have transferred to a particular item(su
281、ch as a vehicle or backpack)during illicit activity like bomb-making or drug smuggling.“93 New Hardware&Software Since the data gathered by a HSI system is richer than a regular colour image,we cannot interpret it by simply looking at the pixels.Interpreting the images involves sophisticated machine
282、 learning algorithms.Researchers have“developed an algorithm that can quickly and accurately reconstruct hyperspectral images using less data“.94The capturing instrument uses“compressive measurements”to mix spatial and wavelength data,and the combination of algorithm and hardware makes it possible t
283、o acquire hyperspectral images in less time and to store those images using less memory.95 Another team has integrated graphene into a CMOS integrated circuit,then“combined it with quantum dots to create an array of photodetectors,producing a high resolution image sensor.When used as a digital camer
284、a this device is able to sense UV,visible and infrared light at the same time.The development of this monolithic CMOS-based image sensor represents a milestone for low-cost,high-resolution broadband and hyperspectral imaging systems.“96 89 https:/ 90 https:/ 91 https:/ 92 https:/www.vision- 93http:/
285、 94 https:/ 95 https:/ 96 https:/ 47“In a new study,researchers used 3D printing and low-cost parts to create an inexpensive(700 USD)hyperspectral imager that is light enough to use on-board drones.They offer a recipe for creating these imagers,which could make the traditionally expensive analytical
286、 technique more widely accessible.“97 Long-term perspectives Despite the clear advantage of providing more detailed data than conventional imaging systems,hyperspectral imaging is still in its infancy.There are a few limitations for hyperspectral machine vision applications.A critical factor is spee
287、d,which is limited by the large data volumes inherent in hyperspectral data.Speed limitations have only recently been overcome for real-world applications,and research and development are still required to make this technology widely installed.Cost and a means to interpret the information have been
288、other major barriers to adoption of hyperspectral imaging,but coupling state-of-the-art hyperspectral imaging engines with classification and machine-learning algorithms promise to solve these problems.4.1.9 Speech Recognition Figure 10:RIB Score of Speech Recognition Speech recognition is the field
289、 that develops methodologies and technologies enabling computers to recognize spoken language and to translate it into text.It is also known as“automatic speech recognition”(ASR),“computer speech recognition”,or just“speech to text”(STT).Although not new-the first commercially successful speech reco
290、gnition technologies date from the 1990s-,recent increases in computing power and the development of new algorithms have made possible spectacular advances in recent years.Currently,several drivers push speech recognition forward:the fast growing field of home and personal“intelligent assistants”;th
291、e extended use of smartphones/computers in cars(connected and autonomous vehicles);a greater demand for speech-based biometric systems for multi-factor 97 https:/phys.org/news/2018-02-lightweight-hyperspectral-imagers-sophisticated-imaging.html 012345Current MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsig
292、nificant use by 2038 48 authentication;and the miniaturization-driven need for an input method requiring less space than keyboard or touch.“Since 2014,there has been a lot of research interest in“end-to-end”automatic speech recognition.Traditional phonetic-based approaches required separate componen
293、ts and training for the pronunciation,acoustic and language model,while end-to-end models jointly learn all the components of the speech recognizer”98,thus simplifying the training and deployment processes.Recent progress directions Dedicated chipsets and algorithms Researchers have built a low-powe
294、r specialized chip for automatic speech recognition,drawing 100 times less power than the multi-purpose chips in mobile phones.99 A new voice processor supports stereo-AEC(acoustic echo cancellation)and far-field linear microphone arrays.It has been designed for developers working in the growing voi
295、ce-enabled smart TV,sound bar,set-top box and digital media adapter markets.Commands are accurately captured from across the room for processing by a cloud-based speech recognition system,even in complex acoustic environments.100 Researchers have found that childrens speech pitch and behaviour are v
296、astly different from those of adults.They have developed special datasets and algorithms for speech recognition technology targeted at children.101 Latent Sequence Decompositions(LSD),a framework in which the decomposition of sequences into constituent parts is learnt during model training,was propo
297、sed by Carnegie Mellon University,MIT and Google Brain to directly emit sub-word units which are more natural than English characters.102 The University of Oxford and Google DeepMind extended LAS to“Watch,Listen,Attend and Spell”(WLAS)to handle lip reading,and it surpasses human-level performance.10
298、3 Systems and devices An ASR that listens in to air controllers radio conversations and suggests instructions for pilots has been developed.The number of incorrect commands was reduced to a fourth of the original figure.104 A deep neural network speaker recognition engine running in the background o
299、f other tasks can perform voice matching using short utterances and identify customers more efficiently before they are connected with a human 98 https:/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_recognition 99 http:/news.mit.edu/2017/low-power-chip-speech-recognition-electronics-0213 100 https:/ 101 https:/ http
300、s:/arxiv.org/abs/1610.03035 103 https:/arxiv.org/abs/1611.05358 104 https:/www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-03/su-cl030717.php 49 representative.This can reduce call times by up to 55 seconds,and call centre operations costs by up to$1 per call.105 Some automakers will ship in 2019 vehicles with
301、 a voice-powered virtual assistant with built in artificial intelligence.The AI voice assistant will leverage the connectivity in the car combined with voice recognition software and will tap into calendars,mapping platforms,and other services to both respond to and anticipate users needs.It will be
302、 able to remind the driver,for instance,of an upcoming meeting,and could suggest when to depart for it based on traffic conditions.The AI assistant will also respond to voice queries about things like weather or messaging,and even control factors in the car such as the heating systems or door locks,
303、giving the driver safe and hands-free control over many parts of the vehicle.106 Long-term perspectives Speech recognition and conversational platforms are expected to be one of the top 10 strategic technology trends for 2018.Systems are increasingly capable of answering various questions of users,i
304、n different contexts(from“Hows the weather?”to“What is the difference in features between coffee machine A and B”)ComScore projects that“50%of all searches will be voice searches by 2020.”107 In the longer term,the shift will be more profound as voice will become an invisible interface that allows u
305、s to interact with the intelligent,connected devices around us.As AI and Natural Language Processing become more sophisticated,devices will be able to learn about their users and then anticipate intent,even if not explicit in a persons voice command.In this world characterized by“ambient intelligenc
306、e”,a simple utterance like“its movie time”will elicit various responses from smart devices in the house dimming the lights,turning off the music,locking the door,turning on Netflix,etc.108 One barrier is the lack of accuracy in speech and voice recognition systems in noisy and harsh working environm
307、ents,but recent advances are making strides in overcoming this shortcoming.105 http:/ 106 http:/ 107 https:/www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/just-say-it-future-search-voice-personal-digital-assistants/1392459 108 http:/ 4.1.10 Swarm Intelligence for undertaking practical tasks Figure 11:RIB Score of S
308、warm Intelligence for undertaking practical tasks Swarm intelligence refers to the collective behaviour of various objects,each performing a number of simple functions and interacting with others in the process.Like insects or a flock of birds,information systems designed based on this principle man
309、age processes in a decentralised way,through self-organising operation of all their elements.Such systems development prospects are connected with application in driverless cars,energy grids with distributed energy sources,search and rescue robots.109 Swarm intelligence and swarm robotics explore th
310、e design of a system where a desired collective behaviour emerges from the local interactions among large numbers of relatively simple physical agents and between the agents and the environment.Recent progress directions The Swarm-Organ project The Swarm-Organ project110 studies“how systems containi
311、ng large numbers of autonomous,but relatively simple agents could collectively organise themselves into complex spatial arrangements,despite each agent having only local awareness”;or how a fleet of small,cheap robots is able to coordinate and will transform into a variety of different shapes and si
312、zes.111 The Swarm-Organ project is funded by the EUs research programme on Future and Emerging Technologies(FET).Unmanned Aerial Vehicles A recent report by Canadas Security Intelligence Service112 shows that the Chinese defence industry has achieved significant advances in swarm intelligence.In Jun
313、e 2017,the China Electronics Technology Corporation 109 https:/issek.hse.ru/en/news/204251974.html 110 http:/www.swarm-organ.eu/,accessed 17/9/2018 111 http:/www.fetfx.eu/story/harnessing-power-swarms/112 https:/ 012345Current MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood of significantuse by 2038 51(CETC)dem
314、onstrated progress by testing 119 fixed-wing UAVs(unmanned aerial vehicles),almost doubling the previous record of 67.113 In one exhibit,Chinas Military Museum depicts a UAV swarm combat system with swarms used for reconnaissance,jamming,and a swarm assault targeting an aircraft carrier.Long-term pe
315、rspectives The military is very much interested in swarm intelligence,especially for vehicles of any kinds114,but other applications are imaginable.The investments are already high,so that further improvements and new applications can be expected in the medium term.4.1.11 Warfare Drones Figure 12:RI
316、B Score of Warfare drones The word“drone”has come to define any kind of vehicle(air,land or sea)that is mostly controlled by autopilot algorithms computing how the necessary controls need to be tweaked in order to carry out an operators orders.While the operator may assume direct remote control of t
317、he drone,algorithms have evolved to cover almost any situation the drone may encounter,making the device a favourite in the warfare domain.A trained soldier is hard to replace,but s/he may direct ten identical drones rolling off the assembly.This has radically changed the face of war.The relative ea
318、se of deploying drones has shifted the intervention policy of major governments.Meanwhile,the people facing the remote-controlled guns have grown resentful,as drones can descend on peaceful areas with no warning.Surgical strikes have proven to be problematic since the targets might be chosen in a ru
319、sh based on uncertain information.Because of this,research has been focusing on improving information-gathering capabilities and on making drones even more precise.One eventual target is to create miniaturized drones that can identify and strike individuals.Of course,this type of tiny superweapon is
320、 stirring up controversy,so a number of groups are developing anti-drone technology and defensive drones.113 https:/jamestown.org/program/swarms-war-chinese-advances-swarm-intelligence/114 https:/www.military- MaturityEuropean PositionLikelihood ofsignificant use by 2038 52 Recent progress direction
321、s Sensing the world Drones have to navigate the world on their own therefore special attention is being devoted to their sensing abilities.All drones operate by building an internal map,based on sensor data,to allow their algorithms to make decisions,from navigation to weapon deployment and mission
322、parameters.Incredible advances have been made in the field to allow drones to use a single consumer camera to build their internal map.115 Extensive progress has been made in the field of sensors that can analyse a substance from a distance by using multi-wavelength laser.116 These sensors are being
323、 developed especially for drones and can reliably detect explosives providing critical mission data.Combine drone and wing-born flight A prototype drone system developed by DARPA uses fully-autonomous drones that in flight transition to wing-borne flight at medium altitude.The system can be used as
324、a surveillance and striking capability for ships with a greater range as a traditional helicopter.117 Intelligence In order to allow drones to accomplish more and more complicated tasks on their own,they must be endowed with the ability to not only perceive the world,but also to understand it.Resear
325、chers are developing techniques to use the fuzzy data provided by telephoto lenses to make drones reliably discriminate between armed combatants and civilians.118 Once drones get close,they should be able to identify their targets with a high degree of accuracy.This can mean facial recognition,but o
326、ther biometric data can be used,including gait and behaviour patterns.119 As drones are supposed to execute surgical strikes,their target identification and discrimination abilities are amongst the most important functions.We can expect this domain of research to affect all drones regardless of size
327、 or specific purpose.Fuel autonomy To accomplish longer and longer missions,drones require energy autonomy beyond what standard sources,like batteries and kerosene,provide.This is why researchers have started to create lighter fuel cells that can be used in 115 https:/ https:/ 117 https:/ 118 https:
328、/ 119 https:/ 53 drones120 and are investigating ways to quickly recharge them121 with abundant elements such as hydrogen.There is also research into drones using bio-matter to recharge.122 The hope is that the drones could use whatever bio-matter is encountered in the field in order to power themse
329、lves and successfully carry out long-term missions without depending on resupply from base.Micro drones Size is a special consideration in warfare drones.Microdrones are smaller than a person and their applications are completely unique,as are the requirements imposed on them.Roboinsects123 are an e
330、xtreme case,being developed to accomplish reconnaissance missions in urban environments without detection.One day they might even carry small explosives in order to target a specific device(like a laptop)or person.Of course,insects can only carry micro payloads,so drones the size of small animals ar
331、e also being developed.To navigate the extreme height differences found in urban environments,DARPA has made a jumping chassis.124 And if the mission requires no stealth and speed is essential,a slightly larger drone can be used to map out large areas in minutes.125 While they are conspicuous,such d
332、rones could work in swarms and allow an operator to completely dominate an indoor space.Microdrones are a peculiar area of research built from organic components.126 Cells and organs are harvested127 from living creatures and become integral parts of the drone.The idea is that these biodrones could
333、be deployed in swarms that biodegrade harmlessly into the environment after they have accomplished their mission.Defence against drones Of course,there are drones specifically made to be stealthy,hard to see and invisible to radar.Considerable effort is being devoted to creating defensive systems against drones.One avenue of research is using the on-board cameras of drones to detect and track othe