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1、Cross Currents:全球海上风电市场面临供应链困境,中国海上风电供应链将扮演何种角色王宇凡 研究顾问 全球海上风电2023年10月17日Cross Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电工程装备论坛Wood Mackenzie全球风电市场展望:Q3 2023全球累计风电装机容量将在10年后来到2.4TWSource:Wood MackenzieCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电工程装备论坛Source:Wood MackenzieWood Mackenzie全球海上风电市场展望:Q3 2023到2030年,全球年新增海上风电装机量将增加4倍以上Cross
2、Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电工程装备论坛Wood Mackenzie海上风电基准预测 vs 2030 政府目标(除中国大陆市场)若要实现2030年政府目标,最后五年海上风电装机量则需要大幅增加供应链所需的投资:Wood Mackenzie基准预测 vs 政府目标$109 bn$27 bnInvestments to meet 2030 targetsInvestments to meet base caseSource:Wood MackenzieCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电工程装备论坛全球海上风电全球海上风电市场供应链面市场供应链面临的挑战临的挑战
3、中国将扮演何中国将扮演何种角色种角色12全球海上风电市场供应链面临的挑战全球海上风电全球海上风电市场供应链面市场供应链面临的挑战临的挑战中国将扮演何中国将扮演何种角色种角色12全球海上风电市场供应链面临的挑战Source:Wood Mackenzie达成2030年政府目标所需投资 vs Wood Mackenzie基准预测所需投资若要实现2030年的政府目标,需要对海上风电供应链进行超过1,000亿美元的投资。Installation$48 bn$13.4 bnFoundation$18 bn$5.0 bnBlades$21 bn$4.0 bnNacelleInvestments requir
4、ed to meet Woodmacs base caseInvestments required to governments 2030 targetsTower$3.5 bn$17 bn$1.0 bn$4 bn全球海上风电市场供应链面临的挑战Source:Wood Mackenzie国外关键海上风电供应链企业息税折旧摊销前利润率自2015年后,国外海上风电供应链利润空间受到挤压全球海上风电市场供应链面临的挑战Source:Wood Mackenzie已公布海上风电订单的交付年份近两年,行业已迅速成为卖方市场这对于海上风电项目这对于海上风电项目意味着什么?意味着什么?1.早期承诺2.应急能力
5、有限3.供应商影响力全球海上风电市场供应链面临的挑战Source:Wood Mackenzie到2030年前的供应能力缺口以及满足需求峰值所需的投资部分现有的供应链容量正在被市场淘汰,加剧了产能扩张难度供应能力缺口Installation(vessel years)Nacelle(no.nacelles)Foundation(k tonnes primary steel)Blades(no.blades)Tower(no.sections)中国将扮演何种角色全球海上风电全球海上风电市场供应链面市场供应链面临的挑战临的挑战中国将扮演何中国将扮演何种角色种角色12中国将扮演何种角色继国内海上风电新
6、增装机量大幅下降后,中国的出口需求有所增加中国海上风电平均单机容量中国海上风电年新增并网容量Note:*Only capacity grid-connected by YE 2022 includedSource:Wood Mackenzie中国大陆与全球其他区域海上风电机组已投运时间*中国将扮演何种角色Source:Wood Mackenzie中国供应商的快速升级给行业和政策制定者提出来难题西方供应链对中国供应商的观点政策制定者对中国供应商相互矛盾的观点开发商对中国供应商相互矛盾的观点Tier 3Tier 2Tier 1“Developers should not order Chinese
7、 turbines or foundations”“Tier 1 suppliers should not source sub-components from China”Tier 1 sources subcomponents from ChinaTier 2 sources subcomponents from ChinaTier 3 sources subcomponents from ChinaLocal contentRenewable targetsLocal contentTargets,deadlines,marginsCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电
8、工程装备论坛Cross Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电工程装备论坛Our supply chain Engine Rooms provide comprehensive coverage of market orders,fabrication centers,and vessel capabilities across the global offshore wind value chain.Offshore wind supply chain and technologyEngine room coverageNote:The data is extracted from Q
9、1 2023.Source:Wood MackenzieIncluded in the engine roomsTable of contents and definitions Table of contents and definitions explaining the methodologyOrders tables Orders tables breakdown of historical and future orders by facilityDemand tables Demand tables breakdown of WoodMacs forecast beyond the
10、 MW through metrics such as tonnes,or vessel days per year.Supply tables Supply tables Installation&manufacturing capacity with the capabilities of each vessel or facilityUtilisationUtilisation a breakdown of vessel or facility utilisationSupply&Demand dashboards Supply&Demand dashboards detailed on
11、 the following slideThe granularity of the offshore wind service allows you to zoom in on one of the 2,750+2,750+turbine and foundation installations orders across the 450+450+vessels announced in the marketCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上风电工程装备论坛Our Engine room datasets allow you to quickly get an overvi
12、ew of the supply and demand balances across the key components while also giving you direct access to the underlying assumptions and the ability to tailor the output.Offshore wind engine roomsIllustrative supply and demand output from the Engine room datasetsNote:The data is extracted from Q1 2023.S
13、ource:Wood MackenzieDemand is analysed at the project-levelDemandSupplySupply is analysed at the facility or vessel-levelSupply by vessel or facilityDemand by project专注于技术、政策等重塑能源发展格局的行业动态伍德麦肯兹电力与可再生能源研究供应链技术、系统与运营市场动态综合电力市场展望全球转型风电风电供应链风电技术、系统与运营全球风电市场海上风电全球光伏市场美国集中式光伏美国分布式光伏全球储能市场Grid Edge电动汽车光伏技术
14、、系统与运营光伏供应链储能技术、系统与运营储能供应链北美拉美欧洲亚太实时市场数据和电价预测PowerRT,EPSI能源转型服务氢能CCUS碳排放离网光伏储能Grid Edge电动汽车These materials,including any updates to them,are published by and remain subject to the copyright of the Wood Mackenzie group(Wood Mackenzie),or its third-party licensors(“Licensors”)as relevant,and are made
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