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1、Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low-Carbon Development:Perspective from South-SouthCooperationChinas Policy Strategies for Green Low-Carbon Development:Perspective from South-SouthCooperationGeneva,2023 2023,United NationsThis work is available through open access,by complying with the Creative C
2、ommons licence created for intergovernmental organizations,at https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.The de
3、signations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers
4、 or boundaries.Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits.This publication has not been formally edited.United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Tr
5、ade and DevelopmentUNCTAD/GDS/2023/6eISBN:978-92-1-358611-2Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationiiiFOREWORDIn 2022,UNCTAD published the volume of“Chinas Structural Transformation:What can developing countries learn?“.The purpose of the vol
6、ume was to facilitate peer learning among countries in the Global South by sharing policy experiences.That publication examined diverse policy aspects including macroeconomic framework,trade,industrialization,digital transformation and debt management,shedding light on the factors contributing to Ch
7、inas economic transformation.Nevertheless,there exists another dimension of Chinas story.The rapid industrialization and urbanization have resulted in resources and environmental challenges for the country,which calls for the transformation of development strategies.Currently,China is the worlds lar
8、gest emitter but has committed to peak emission by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.Considering Chinas income level,economic structure,energy mix and the economic growth,achieving the goals poses significant challenges.What policy strategies can be implemented to achieve green low carbon tra
9、nsition while ensuring sustained economic growth for China?This“updated”volume,Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperation,adds some valuable insights to the ongoing discussions on this topical issue.It aims to make a substantial contribution to
10、 the current discourse on Chinas transition process,encompassing both economic and climate aspects.Furthermore,it will enhance the understanding of the binding constraints developing countries encounter at national level,and how to advance green structural transformation through proper policy strate
11、gies formulation.This publication is initiated and designed by UNCTAD,under the project of“Integrated Policy Strategies and Regional Policy Coordination for Resilient,Green and Transformative Development:Supporting Selected Asian BRI Partner Countries to Achieve 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda”f
12、unded by UNPDF Sub-Fund for SDG.Richard Kozul-WrightDirectorDivision on Globalization and Development StrategiesUnited Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentivChinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis publication was p
13、repared under the supervision of Richard Kozul-Wright,Director of the UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies.Dawei Wang(UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies)coordinated the research and collaborated on the drafting of the report text with external contribu
14、tors.Substantive comments were received from Igor Paunovic and Gl Unal,of the UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies.UNCTAD gratefully acknowledges the substantive contributions to the draft text from Jifeng Li and Xue Han(Development and Research Centre of the State Council of
15、China),Chengjun Zhou(Research Institute of the Peoples Bank of China),Xiaojiang Li(China Academy of Urban Planning),Li Li,Xiuli Xu and Feng Ba(China Agricultural University),Chenmin He(Zhejiang University of Technology),Pianpian Xiang(Beijing University of Technology),and Ji Chen and Xinyue Lin(Glob
16、al Institute of China International Capital Corporation).The insights and support from Kejun Jiang,Yongbo Zhang,Jian Zhai,and Yi Qin to the draft text are also acknowledged.The UNCTAD team thanks Rose Osindealabaster and Carter Dougherty for copy-editing and formatting the document,and Florence Hudr
17、y for administrative support.The research was conducted under the project“Integrated Policy Strategies and Regional Policy Coordination for Resilient,Green and Transformative Development:Supporting Selected Asian BRI Partners to Achieve 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda”,supported by the United Na
18、tions Peace and Development Trust Fund(2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Sub-Fund).Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationvTABLE OF CONTENTSChapter I.Greening Chinas development:background,constraints,and policy strategies.1A.Chinas ec
19、onomic rise and developmental challenges .1B.Chinas climate agenda and binding constraints.4C.Chinas policy strategies towards green low carbon development 8Chapter II.Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under the“30-60”targets.11A.Chinas urbanization process and resource and environmental
20、 impacts.11B.The challenges of carbon emission reductions in Chinas cities.13C.Vision for green and low-carbon urban development and the transformation of development approaches.16D.Policies and strategies towards green and low-carbon urban development.17Chapter III.Energy transition in China:policy
21、 perspectives.25A.Chinas energy trend and CO2 emission from 1990 to 2021.25B.Energy transition for the 30-60 targets.28C.Chinas Policies strategies for energy transition.32D.Conclusion .38Chapter IV.Promoting green transition in Chinas industrial sector.39A.Context setting .39B.Energy conservation a
22、s the main policy to limit environmental damage from industry.41C.Conclusion.49Chapter V.Policies and practices in advancing green agricultural development in China.53A.Taking climate challenges into Chinas agricultural agenda.53B.Climate adaptation in agriculture-bridging food security with climate
23、 agenda.54C.Climate mitigation in agriculture:transformation of carbon from source to sink .58D.Conclusion.64Chapter VI.Facilitating green transformation through macro policies in China.67A.Introduction.67B.The role of macro policies in addressing green transition.67C.An integrated approach to strat
24、egy development in China.69D.Monetary policy tools.75E.Conclusions .77Chapter VII.Brief introduction on Chinas green finance and policies.79A.Definition and institutional arrangements .79B.Green finance policies:Green credit.81References.86viChinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:
25、Perspective from South-South CooperationFIGURES&TABLES List of FiguresFigure 1.1 Real GDP growth rate:China and selected groupsFigure 1.2 Real GDP PC growth:China vs.the world averageFigure 1.3 CO2 emission from energy activities in ChinaFigure 1.4 Environmental kuznets curve(EKC)flatteningFigure 1.
26、5 Selected industrial product output index(1978=1)Figure 2.1 Trends in Chinas total population,urban population,and urbanization rateFigure 2.2 Carbon emissions diagram of 10 typical cities(million tons)Figure 2.3 Direct carbon emission composition of 10 cities based on CCG dataFigure 2.4 Household
27、electricity consumption in different countries(kWh/year)Figure 2.5 Composition of per capita carbon emissions in five typical communitiesFigure 2.6 Proportion of green building area in Chinas new urban buildings in those yearsFigure 2.7 2014-2021 Sales and ownership of Chinas new energy vehiclesFigu
28、re 3.1 Primary energy demand in China from 1990 to 2021Figure 3.2 Energy use by sectors,1995-2014Figure 3.3 Installed capacity of renewable energyFigure 3.4 CO2 emission in China and carbon intensity,1990-2020Figure 3.5 Primary energy demand in China,energy transition scenarioFigure 3.6 Power genera
29、tion scenarios for China,energy transition scenarioFigure 3.7 Installed capacity for power generation in ChinaFigure 3.8 CCS in power generation sectorFigure 3.9 Final energy demand in transport sector in ChinaFigure 3.10.Solar PV and wind capacity in the worldFigure 4.1.CO2 emissions by sector,1995
30、2020Figure 4.2 CO2 emissions intensity by industrial sector(19952020)Figure 5.1 GAD-Relevant Top-Level Comprehensive Policies in China(1978-2022)Figure 5.2 Composition of Chinas Agricultural GHGs as Carbon SourcesFigure 5.3 Chinas GHG Emission in Agriculture and Its National Share(1990-2018)Figure 5
31、.4 Agricultural Emission Reduction Policies in China(2005-2022)Figure 5.5 Policies Promoting Sequestration by SOC Sink in China(1984-2025)Figure 5.6 Potentiality of Chinas Carbon Neutral AgricultureFigure 5.7 Scenarios of GHG from agricultural activities in China(2020-2060)Figure 6.1 Chinas macroeco
32、nomic policy framework for environmental protection and climate changeFigure 6.2 China green tax systemFigure 6.3.Public expenditure on energy conservation and environmental protection(2012-2022)Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationviiList
33、 of TablesTable 2.1 List of the full-mode travel structures in key citiesTable 3.1 Newly installed capacity of solar PV and wind power in China and the world,GWTable 3.2 Key sectoral energy conservation policies in the 12th and 13th FYP periodTable 4.1.Major policy documents related to Chinas green
34、industrial development since 2021Table 4.2.Industry categories encouraged or restricted under green industrial developmentTable 5.1 Main Index of GAD for“14th Five-Year Plan”(2021-2025)Table 5.2 Chinas Agricultural Water Conservation Targets Outline by 2020Table 6.1.Main binding indicators in enviro
35、nmental protection and green developmentTable 6.2 Practical information on the current green taxationList of BoxesBox 4.1 Green manufacturing system establishment in ChinaBox 5.1 SOC Sequestration Experimental Center of Chunhua,Jiangsu,ChinaAppendicesAppendix 1:Table 4.3 Direct CO2 emissions by sect
36、or(19952020)Appendix 2.Table 4.4 CO2 emissions intensity by industrial sector(19952020)Chapter I-Greening Chinas development:background,constraints,and policy strategies1ChApTER I.GREENING ChINAS DEVELOpMENT:BACKGROUND,CONSTRAINTS,AND pOLICY STRATEGIESChinas transition to a green,low-carbon economy
37、is among the most essential elements needed to achieve the climate goals set down in the Paris Agreement.China has pledged it“will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”.1 Given the currently high emissions level in China and an economic struct
38、ure with significant share of industrial sector and fossil fuel consumption,it remains a formidable challenge to realize such steep emission reduction for the 30-60 goals,as we call them in this paper.Meanwhile,China remains a developing country with the population of 1.4 billion people and developm
39、ent challenges in economic growth,social development,and environmental protection(SCIO,2021a).In particular,the shock from the Covid-19 pandemic and cascading crises since 2020 have placed extra challenges to Chinese economy.Lifting the remaining Covid-19-related restrictions has helped sustain Chin
40、as economic recovery,which is expected to see an improvement this year.But China is also facing some persistent challenges such as financial stress,constrained consumer spending(UNCTAD,2023).Still,it must sustain strong economic growth and achieve the climate goals.Since about 2015,China has expedit
41、ed the process to transform its development strategies.Concepts such as High-Quality Development(HQD),New Development Paradigm(NDP),Eco-civilization,and others have been proposed and integrated in multiple economic policy documents,notably the ongoing 14th Five Year Plan,2035 Vision Outline and the
42、1+N Policy Framework for Carbon Neutrality.Together,they lay out the Chinese governments roadmap to promote green structural transformation in the country.This first chapter provides the overall context to understand Chinas green low-carbon development strategies as a prelude to a more detailed disc
43、ussion for some key policy areas.A.Chinas economic rise and developmental challenges 1.Structural transformation and economic growthWhether China has fully realized a structural transformation remains an open question(UNCTAD,2022),but theres little doubt that China has achieved remarkable economic g
44、rowth since 1978 when the country began the process of reform and opening up.Chinas economic rise is characterised by the growth of per capita income,increased economic complexity,an expanded manufacturing sector,upgrading of science and technology,and dynamic foreign trade and investment.The last f
45、our decades witnessed very rapid income growth of China.From 1979-2018,real GDP grew from USD 326.2 billion(in constant 2015 USD)to USD 16.3 trillion,expanding almost 42-fold.As figure 1.1 illustrates,in the last 4 decades,Chinas economy grew much faster than the rest of the world,though the gap has
46、 been narrowed in recent years notably from the Covid-19 pandemic shock.Since mid-1990s,for the periods of 1995-2000,2000-2005,2005-2010,2010-2015,2015-2020,the average real growth rate of China was 8.51%,9.80%,11.20%,7.86%and 5.97%respectively.For the world average,the rate in the same periods was
47、3.56%,3.21%,2.52%,2.97%,and 2.07%.1Xi Jinpings speech at the General Debate of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2021,http:/ accessed on 11th October 2023.2Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationFigure 1.1 Real GDP g
48、rowth rate:China and selected groups-10-5050369258042005200620072008200920000022Source:UNCTADStat.The rapid growth is also reflected by the increase of incom
49、e per capita.In 1979,Chinas real GDP per capita(USD 405)was only 6.8%of the world average(USD 5,942).It was even just 73%of the average of Least Developed Countries(LDCs)(USD 555).But since 2022,China has exceeded the world average in real GDP per capita which stood at USD 11,414,very close to the h
50、igh-income country threshold by World Bank standards.But compared to developed economies,China lags far behind,with 30%of their per capita income(UNCTADStat).Figure 1.2 Real GDP PC growth:China vs.the world average020004000600080001000012000ChinaWorld39512
51、0032005200720092001720192021Source:UNCTADStat.Chinas economic success has been driven by rapid industrialization,particularly in the manufacturing sector.China now accounts for over 31%of the world manufacturing value-added,while the figure was just 3.4%in 1979.In fact,since 2013,China al
52、one has accounted for about 62.5%of the combined manufacturing value-added of all 40 OECD members states.On the back of its rise as a manufacturing powerhouse,China has emerged as one of the worlds leading trading economies,particularly following its accession to the WTO in 2001.It is now the major
53、trading Chapter I-Greening Chinas development:background,constraints,and policy strategies3partner for over 140 economies,according to the Chinese Government.2 Chinas foreign trade has also become more complex.According to Harvard Growth Lab data,China ranked 46th in the Economic Complexity Index,wh
54、ich is based mainly on the structure of a countrys exports,in 1995;it rose to 18thin 2021.Driven by the industrial growth and growing share of international trade,China also managed to increase the domestic value-added content of its exports,became a major player in forming global value chains,and e
55、merged as one a global digital leader(UNCTAD,2022).(a)Progress on poverty reduction and social development challengesBenefiting from the rapid economic growth,China has been able to lift close to 800 million people out of poverty in the past four decades according to the USD 1.9 per day poverty line
56、,which accounted for about 75%of the worlds total poverty reduction headcount in the same period(DRC&WBG,2022).However,the country still faces many developmental challenges.Among them,rising income inequality is one of the most daunting ones,reflected by relatively high Gini Coefficient and signific
57、ant gap in per capita disposable income between rural and urban households(UNCTAD,2022).Furthermore,in social development,China still needs to improve the fairness and accessibility of basic health services,pre-school education inclusion,gender equality in education and employment,etc.(CIKD,2021).(b
58、)Resources demand,environmental concerns,and carbon emissionsRapid economic growth,industrialization and urbanization has been associated with huge demand for land,water,energy,minerals and other natural resources all of which cause raise environmental concerns.Chapter II of this study will present
59、an in-depth analysis of Chinas urbanization process and impacts.The number of cities in China has increased from 226 in 1981 to 687 in 2020,with expansion of urban built-up areas growing over seven-fold,from 7,438 km2 to 60,721 km2.By 2022,65%of Chinese people lived in urban area,while the rate in 1
60、981 was only 20%.Urbanization facilitated investment in industrial sector.Along with the expanded urban area,a significant number of development zones have also been established since the 1980s.As of 2021,there were 217 national economic and technological development zones,168 national high-tech ind
61、ustrial development zones and close to 2,000 provincial-level development zones across the country,with an approved area accounting for 14%of the land use in urban areas.Infrastructure investment grew very quickly to keep pace with urbanization.In 2020,the total length of urban water supply pipeline
62、 reached 1,005,000 km,which was 4.0 times of that in 2000.The length of natural gas pipeline was 849,300 km,which was 25.2 times of that in 2000.The inhabited dwellings space that are heated in cities was 9,833 million m2,which was 8.9 times that of 2000.Fast urbanization and expansion of energy int
63、ensive industries such as steel making,building materials,non-ferrous metals,and chemical products,among others,have led to enormous energy demand.In 1990s,the total primary energy consumption was 691million TOE3,then increased by 5-fold to 3,486 million toe in 2020.Chinas energy mix is dominated by
64、 fossil fuels,particularly coal,even as renewable energies have emerged.In 1990s,coal accounted for about 79%of energy use.The rate was 56.8%as of 2020.Chapter 3 of this book will present more detailed information and analysis.The large scale of energy use and coal-dominated mix result in soaring gr
65、eenhouse gas(GHG)emissions of China,which has made the country the world largest emitter since around 2006.Figure 1.3 shows the trend of Chinas total emission(in MtCO2/yr)and the GDP carbon intensity(emission per GDP in t CO2eq/kUSD/yr).It illustrates that China experienced a fast increase of total
66、emission alongside its economic rise,but the GDP carbon intensity also dropped significantly.2https:/ accessed on 25 September 2023.3TOE refers to“tonne of oil equivalent,”which is a unit of energy,defined as the amount of energy released by burning one tonne of crude oil.4Chinas Policy Strategies f
67、or Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationFigure 1.3 CO2 emission from energy activities in China14000.0012000.0010000.008000.006000.004000.002000.000.0025804200520062007200820092000
68、01920201.601.401.201.000.800.600.400.200.00C02 emissionEmission per GDPSource:EDGAR.B.Chinas climate agenda and binding constraints1.Key climate commitments and goalsThe climate crisis has become one of the worlds most serious challenges.According to the IPCC(2022),global mean surface temperature(GM
69、ST)for the decade 2011-2020 is 1.09C above the 1850-1900 period.If the current rate continues,global warming is likely to reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052.Earth had its hottest month on record in July 2023,being about 1.5C warmer than the pre-industrial average for 1850-1900.The UN Secretary-General
70、 Antonio Guterres has warned that“the era of global warming has ended”and“the era of global boiling has arrived”and underscored the need for global action on emissions,climate adaptation and climate finance the three pillars of the Paris Agreement.4As the worlds largest emitter,Chinas climate agenda
71、 is a key part of the international actions in response to climate change.Following the signature of Paris Agreement,China submitted to UNFCCC secretariat Enhanced Actions on Climate Change:Chinas Intended Nationally Determined Contributions in 2015 and updated version,Chinas Achievements,New Goals
72、and Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions in 2021.Further to these international commitments,China also released several policy documents to align the national economic agenda with climate goals.National leaders,notably President Xi Jinping,reaffirmed the countrys climate goals in various
73、 occasions such as UN General Assembly,G20 and BRICS Summits,and the Climate Ambition Summit.The documents abovementioned outline key targets of Chinas green low-carbon transition among which are:peaking CO2 emissions before 2030;achieving carbon neutrality before 2060;by 2030,lowering CO2 emissions
74、 per unit of GDP by over 65%from the 2005 level,increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%,increasing the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level,and bringing total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilo
75、watts;by 2060,increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to over 80%;4 https:/news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139162 Chapter I-Greening Chinas development:background,constraints,and policy strategies5 developing adaptation strategy to enhance the resilience of natural ecosy
76、stem and economy;strengthening institutions including government work mechanism,laws,regulations,and capacities;and engaging actively with international cooperation including supporting South-South cooperation and not to build new coal-fired power projects abroad.Many more detailed targets in variou
77、s economic industries or sectors,some of which will be discussed later in this study.Among all those targets and roadmaps,the most important overarching commitments are peaking emission and reaching carbon neutrality which is usually referred as the“30-60”or“dual carbon”goals in China.Since 2021,it
78、has become a buzzword and is widely discussed,helping raise the social awareness of the significance of the countrys green,low-carbon transition.Almost all leading universities in China have,in the last three years,established an academy aiming for strengthening science,technology and policy researc
79、h centred on the theme of carbon neutrality.Almost all ministries in the State Council have formulated action plans in their respective policy domains.Private sectors have also viewed the 30-60 goals as a game-changer for investment and market opportunities in China in the next few decades.Such high
80、 social awareness supports the governments policy strategies and actions,but also indicate that the country may face enormous challenges towards the goals that need revolutionary technology breakthroughs and application and extensive policy actions to guide the transition.2.The binding constraints f
81、or balancing economic growth and decarbonisationThe committed 30-60 targets will be a formidable challenge for China given its emission levels,development stage,and economic and energy structure.The first challenge is that,achieving the 30-60 targets will require probably the most drastic emission r
82、eduction in human history.According to the data included in Chinas National Communications to the UNFCCC(China,2004,2012,2017&2018),in 1994,its total GHG emissions was 3,649.5MtCO2,with the share of CO2 at 73.05%,CH4 at 19.73%and N2O at 7.22%.In 2005,2010 and 2014,the total emission increased to 7,4
83、67.09 MtCO2,10,544 MtCO2,and 12,301 MtCO2(without LULUCF).Including LULUCF,the number was 7,046.29,9,551 and 11,186 MtCO2.The EDGAR data(Figure 1-3)shows similar trend.From 1990 to 2020,the total CO2 emissions grew from 2,426 MtCO2 to 11,680 MtCO2,increasing about 3.8-fold within 3 decades.During th
84、is period,Chinas contribution to the world total emissions also increased from about 11%(1990)to 32%(2020)accordingly.Many studies have produced estimates of the levels and timelines for Chinese emissions to peak and the variance among them is not very large.Taking one as an example,Chen et al.,(202
85、2)estimated that China may reach its carbon peak without any exogenous shocks during 2021-2026 at 11.7-13.1 Gt with high probability(80%).If the peaking year is 2026,then China may take about 34 years to shift from peaking level to net zero emission,which would be very short compared to many advance
86、d economies.According to Levin&Rich(2017),emissions in the EU as a whole peaked by 1990;the EU aims to be carbon neutral by 2050,which means the timespan of transformation would be about 60 years.Given the level of Chinas emissions,the reduction curve will be much steeper.The second major challenge
87、is that such steep decline of emission will generate significant impacts on Chinas economy,positive and negative alike.China then must find a way to reach carbon neutrality but not at the expense of economic growth,given its economic and energy structure.Chinas emissions and its share of the global
88、total may have been driven by the expansion of Chinas economy.But China has a long way to go to catch up with the developed economies in terms of per capita income,advanced technologies,public health system,education,and all the other factors that allow a country to sustain economic growth.6Chinas P
89、olicy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationIf China maintains the current GDP per capital growth trend,which was an annual average of 5.49%from 2015-2022,Chinas GDP per capita would be slightly above USD 14,000 USD(at constant 2015 prices)by 2030.While
90、in 1990,when EU peaked its emission,its GDP per capital was USD 22,615 USD(at constant 2015 prices).Therefore,China may hit peak emissions at much lower income per capita level than developed economies.Figure 1.4 may,to some extent,illustrate the possible trend through Environmental Kuznets Curve(EK
91、C).Figure 1.4 Environmental kuznets curve(EKC)flattening05,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Carbon emission per capita(t)GDP per capita($)USUSUKUKCanadaCanadaGermanyJapanKoreaKoreaChinaChinaNote:Contributed by Ji Chen,Xinyue Lin,Xiaojiang Li,and Yi Qin with data from Word Bank and G
92、lobal Carbon project(2022)This measures CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry.GDp per capita is expressed in international-$at 2011 prices.Chinas growth in the past decades has featured the growth of secondary sector and export of manufactured goods.In 2022,the industrial sector accounted abo
93、ut 33%of value added in Chinas economy including 27.7%from the manufacturing sector,with very rapid expansion of some emissions-intensive products,including steel,cement,glass,non-ferrous metals,ammonia,and ethylene etc,as shown in Figure 1.4.With the expansion of the industrial sector,China became
94、the leading exporter of manufactured goods.In 2001,Chinas share in global merchandise trade and manufacture goods exports was 4.3%and 5.1%,which increased to 14.5%and 21%in 2022.As of 2022,92.6%of Chinas goods exports are manufactured products.A dynamic industrial sector,plus rapid urbanization,infr
95、astructure construction,transportation,and other factors have made China the largest consumer of energy in the world.And its energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels,notably coal(56.8%of primary energy demand in 2022),which is higher than world average.After 2013,China saw the decreased consump
96、tion of coal for three years,but then an uptick from 2017.According to the Third National Communication of China to the UNFCCC,energy use(78.6%)and industrial process(12.3%)are the main sources of emissions,accounting for over 90%of the total GHGs.Chapter I-Greening Chinas development:background,con
97、straints,and policy strategies7Figure 1.5 Selected industrial product output index(1978=1)0500Chemical FiberMotor VehiclePaperCoalCrude OilNatural GasElectricityPig IronSteelSteel ProductsCementMachine Tools52005200720092001720192021Note:Contributed by Chenmin he bas
98、ed on the data from Chinese National Statistical Bureau.The third challenge is that though China has progressed very fast in developing renewable energies in recent years,controlling fossil fuel especially coal while meeting the massive energy demand supporting the economic growth will require enorm
99、ous investment and innovation to support the low carbon transition of its economic and energy system.Financing and technologies are the two common challenges for developing countries in delivering on their climate goal including China.Advancing transition,mitigating the negative economic impacts,and
100、 ensuring the just process all need massive investment.A study conducted by Tsinghua University(2020)estimated that the cumulative investment demand for the transition of energy,industrial,construction and transportation sectors would be about RMB 175 trillion(roughly USD 25 trillion)from 2020-2050.
101、Another study conducted by NDRC estimated the annual investment needs for 2030 carbon peaking purpose is about RMB 3.1-3.6 trillion,but the current gap might be as high as RMB 2.5 trillion annually.On the other hand,China also needs to further boost the development and application of green technolog
102、ies that are essential for decarbonisation,an area where developed countries have much greater advantages.China indeed leads in many green technologies such as solar PV,hydrogen,electronic vehicle,etc,but is still facing constraints in developing and deploying some key green technologies.For example
103、,Chinas Ministry of Industry and Information Technology identifies several key low-carbon technologies in industrial sector that need further R&D,including energy storage,hydrogen energy,CCUS(carbon capture,use,and storage),etc.In China Vision 2035,released in 2021,China outlined plans to bring over
104、all output and per capita income to a“new stage”.But it will also have to control fossil fuel energy and carbon intensive sectors,which currently take quite large share in its economy,to meet the 30-60 goals.China therefore needs to find the right balance of the dual goals of economic development an
105、d climate protection,the central theme of this volume.8Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationC.Chinas policy strategies towards green low carbon developmentChinese efforts in highlighting environmental sustainability in its development stra
106、tegies can be traced back to the 1980s and a subsequent scaling up in 1990s(CSIO,1996).China participated in the Rio Conference and issued the countrys 21st Century Agenda.But the economic growth targets outweighed environmental concern in 1990s and early 2000s as analysed in Chapter II.Since 2015,w
107、hen participating in the Paris Agreement and then later committing the 30-60 targets,China has adjusted economic policy strategies to achieve the dual goals of sustained economic growth and a green,low-carbon transition.As a guiding principle,Chinas green low-carbon development strategy could be con
108、sidered as an integral part of the conceptual High Quality Development framework,which aims to promote“innovative,coordinated,green,opening and shared”development.Specifically for the green low-carbon transition,China has formulated quite comprehensive policy framework that is mainly composed of“Top
109、-level design”and sectoral level action points.Such policy framework is broadly described as the“1+N”policy framework in China.The“1”refers to overarching policy document that sets the guiding principles for all policies towards Chinas peaking and neutrality targets.The“N”stands for a collection of
110、complementary policy documents that aim to reduce carbon emissions and facilitate the transition to a green economy in various sectors.To mobilize the resources to safeguard the transition process,China has also recalibrated its macroeconomic policy framework,in part by building the green financing
111、system.1.Mainstreaming green low-carbon transition in national economic policy making through“Top-level design”Following the pledge that is contained in both Chinas NDCs and Presidents speeches in the UN General Assembly,China issued two key documents:Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communi
112、st Party of China and the State Council on Completely,Accurately,and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept to Well Implement the Work of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality(the Opinion)and Action Plan for Peaking Carbon Emissions before 2030.Together,they constitute the most impo
113、rtant top-level assessments of Chinese policy.The Opinion identifies 5 principles,10 key targets,and 35 policy areas as the main direction for action;the Opinion does not contain any situation analysis or action-oriented policies.But as a top-level policy document,the Opinion demonstrates the clear
114、political willingness of the Chinese central government in advancing a green,low-carbon transition to reach the 30-60 goals,which will help to mobilize public awareness and urge coordinated actions across the government system.Unlike many other large economies with federal political system,in which
115、local governments have more autonomy,Chinas policy making is mostly a top-down process,so the Opinion is essential to bringing the green,low-carbon development concept into the mainstream.In addition to the Opinion,Chinas State Council sent a notice to all Ministries and provincial governments reque
116、sting them to implement the Action Plan(AP).The AP highlights the top 10 areas for action to reach peak and then lower carbon emission levels.It covers 43 tasks in energy transition,industrial development,urban and rural construction,and other areas.For example,the AP highlights important steps in s
117、everal emission-intensive sectors such as steel,non-ferrous metals,construction materials,and petrochemical industries,as well as building a green manufacturing system.The AP also include the dimension of international cooperation and institutional and capacity development,including strengthening So
118、uth-South Cooperation,improving the carbon emission statistical system and building a strict monitoring and evaluation system.Chapter I-Greening Chinas development:background,constraints,and policy strategies9Compared with the Opinion,the AP focuses on the actions that can be undertaken for the 2030
119、 target of peaking carbon emissions.Under this plan,prior to 2030,the priority is to improve energy conservation and efficiency so as to reduce the carbon intensity in this period,a step that may pave the way for controlling the total emission to net zero by 2060.But in July 2023,China went further
120、with a policy entitled“dual control of carbon emissions.”This policy uses both the total emissions and GDP carbon intensity as the binding indicator to assess the local government performance.After the release of the AP,local governments across China have all put forward local action plans to reduce
121、 carbon emissions by 2030 in their respective jurisdictions.Various Ministries have also formulated multiple APs in various policy areas.For example,in July 2022,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(MIIT),National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),and Ministry of Ecology and Environ
122、ment(MEE)jointly published the Implementation Programme of Peaking Carbon Emissions in Industrial Sector that proposed detailed tasks for 17 Ministries(or national level agencies)and all provincial governments.2.Low-carbon transition strategies in 4 key action areasThough green development is a cros
123、s-cutting issue that involves many dimensions,this volume focuses on exploring Chinas policies in promoting a low-carbon economy.Chinas actions target 4 key areas:energy,industry,urban and rural construction,and transportation.Energy use is the single largest source of emission.China experienced soa
124、ring energy demand in the past three decades,but growth has slowed since 2013.For the periods of 1990-2000,2000-2010 and 2010-2020,the average annual growth rate was 4.06%,9.39%and 3.28%respectively.By 2020,Chinas energy mix was dominated by coal(56.8%),followed by oil(18.9%),natural gas(8.4%)and ot
125、hers(15.9%)including renewables and nuclear.Chinas energy transition strategy involves three main approaches.From the demand side,the country is pursuing energy conservation and electrification.From supply side,the country has set a target to reduce the fossil fuel consumption and develop renewables
126、.Finally,China is pursuing energy security with measures that include diversifying supply and building strong smart grid.China has become a global leader and largest investor in renewable energies,which would help the country downsize its total emissions.Since 2015 China has been the worlds largest
127、consumer of modern renewable energy.In 2022,the newly installed renewable capacity reached 152 GW,about 52%of the world total(295 GW according to IRENA).Such trend will keep going in the next few years.IEA(2022)estimates that China is to invest almost half of new global renewable power capacity over
128、 2022-2027.Energy transition is also the main component for Chinas strategy in building a green,low-carbon transportation system.In this area,China is focusing on two areas:improving renewable energy use in transportation sector and electrification and building a more efficient and systemic transpor
129、tation system.In industrial sector,on top of the Opinion and Action Plan,Chinas Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(MIIT)has published Green Development Plan in Industrial Sector during the 14th Five Year Plan,which also highlight three aspects,namely adjusting industrial structure and l
130、ayout,improving energy efficiency,developing circular economy and improving green manufacturing systems.Specifically,the Plan states that China will establish a roadmap to peak emission for the four highest emissions-intense industries:steel,petrochemicals,nonferrous metals,and building materials.Un
131、like developed economies,where household contributes the largest emission in urban area,industrial processes are the main source of emission in Chinas cities.Therefore,in terms of green low carbon transition in urban area,China might see the decreasing emission from industry sectors,with the adjustm
132、ent of industrial structure and slowing infrastructure development,but the increasing emission from household sectors like residential space heating,city transportation,and other facilities.Like industrial sector,Chinas State Council also issued a policy document on advancing green development in ur
133、ban and rural construction,in which green buildings,strengthening systemic infrastructure,green construction,and green lifestyle have been identified as key measures to transform the structure of urban and rural development.10Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from
134、 South-South Cooperation3.Macroeconomic policy framework and green financing systemGreen,low-carbon development requires a thorough transformation of economic systems,including ways of both production and consumption.So,advancing this transformation calls for appropriate macroeconomic policies from
135、government.Furthermore,the initial costs of implementing green,low-carbon transition practices and technologies can be high,and many countries face limited domestic financial resources.(UNCTAD,2023b).Though China has relatively large fiscal space comparing to other economies(UNCTAD,2023a),financing
136、gap remains a big challenge.Since 1978,China has successfully managed its structural transformation process through proactive macroeconomic management to maintain economic stability,mobilize financial resources,manage its capital account,and promote investment,trade and industrial upgrading(Feng,Li&
137、Wu,2019).This experience may,in the end,help equip the Chinese government to formulate the right macroeconomic policy framework for green development.Against the backdrop of climate change and the 30-60 targets,Chinas macroeconomic policy may perform two key functions.Firstly,climate change and asso
138、ciated extreme weather or disaster may cause serious damages and shock to the economy.Macroeconomic policy should help to support economic stability from climate-related shocks and build more resilient economy.Secondly,macroeconomic economic policy should be able to mobilize resources and encourage
139、investment to facilitate the transition.China has adjusted its macroeconomic policy framework for the green,low-carbon transition with various tools in both fiscal and monetary policies(see,Chapter V).China has also established a national level green financial system.At institutional level,Chinas gr
140、een financial system includes established green finance standards and environmental information disclosure mechanism,through policies like Green Bond Endorsed Projects Catalogue,and Environmental Equity Financing Instruments,Guidelines to Establish the Green Financial System,Guidelines onEnvironment
141、al Information DisclosureforFinancial Institutions etc.In practice,Chinas green financing system includes pillars such as macroprudential policies,monetary policies,and green finance policies that covers bond,insurance,investment funds,and national emission trading markets.Thanks to the advancement
142、of green financing system,China is one of the largest green financing markets.By 2020,the balance of national green credit was RMB 11.95 trillion,and in a single year,2020,RMB 258 billion has been issued by domestic entities.In terms of green funds,as of 2020,there were 80 green-themed public funds
143、in Chinas capital market,with a total scale of RMB 169.4 billion.This volume presents an analysis on several key pillars of Chinas policy strategies in advancing green,low-carbon development.Chapter II analyses the challenges of reaching 30-60 targets in cities and discuss how to transform city deve
144、lopment and urban planning in China.Chapter III focuses on the energy transition,which is essential in addressing climate change.Both chapter II and chapter III also include some analysis on transportation sector.Chapter IV highlights Chinas policies in advancing green development of its industrial
145、sector.Chapter V explains Chinas policies in building resilient agriculture through adaptation and mitigation practices.Chapter VI examines Chinas macroeconomic policy framework against the backdrop of the 30-60 targets.Chapter VII introduce Chinas green financing system and related policies and lat
146、est development.Chapter II-Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under the“30-60”target11ChApTER II.ChINAS GREEN AND LOW-CARBON URBAN DEVELOpMENT UNDER ThE“30-60”TARGETSA.Chinas urbanization process and resource and environmental impacts1.Chinas urbanization processWith the onset of reforms
147、in China,in the late 1970s,a 40-year process of rapid urbanization was set in motion,with the urban population surging from 170 million in 1978 to 900 million in 2020,and the urbanization rate going up from 17.9%to 63.9%.5Figure 2.1 Trends in Chinas total population,urban population,and urbanization
148、 rate0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%020040060080000628200020022004200620082001620182020Total population(10000 persons)Urban population(10000 persons)Urbanization rate(%)Source:China Statistical Yearbook,National Bureau
149、 of Statistics.Notes:The charts drawn by the by research group.From the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s China witnessed rapid progress in industrialization.This was driven by its fast economic growth and industrialization process resulting in fully-implemented urban reform with urbanization rate surging
150、from 29.0%in 1995 to 57.3%in 2015.At the same time,a government assessment and evaluation system has been established,as well as a tax,fiscal and financial system.This encourages growth and municipal government competition,while leading the socio-economic advancement to follow a pattern of high ener
151、gy consumption,high consumption,and high emissions.From mid to late 2010s,Chinas urbanization has slowed down,amid slowed population growth and other factors such as decreased working-age population.5 Source:China Statistical Yearbook.If not specifically indicated,all data in the article are from na
152、tional and provincial statistical yearbooks,as well as studies and calculations by the research group.12Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperation2.Resource and environmental impacts of rapid urbanizationWhile the 40-year urbanization and rapid
153、 urban development boosted economic growth in China,it has placed significant and enormous demand pressure on resources and environment,as summarized below:(a)Development of urban construction land China experienced a seven-fold increase in urban built-up areas from 7,440 km2 to 60,720 km2 between t
154、he years 1981 and 2020.According to the 2019 National Land Survey,the total area of Chinas urban,rural,industrial and mining land was 353,000 km2-an increase of 104,300 km2 compared with that in 2000.However,frequent imbalances also emerged in the utilization of construction land,especially in the i
155、ndustrial land and the high plot ratio of residential land.(b)Industrial parks and industrial development The past four decades saw a rapid increase of construction of tens of thousands of industrial parks at all levels.In 2018,552 national-level development zones and 1,991 provincial-level developm
156、ent zones nationwide were established,in addition to an approved area in the zones of 18,200 km2 representing 14%of Chinas urban industrial and mining land.6 Similarly,more municipal(prefectural)development zones and industrial parks were dotted in rural industrial lands,causing high energy consumpt
157、ion and emissions in numerous farmlands.This resulted in bare-bone utilization and severe waste.(c)Urban housing constructionSince 2000,Chinas average new residence in urban and rural areas each year has exceeded 180 million square meters,with approximately 110 million square meters of urban residen
158、ce built annually.As of 2020,the per capita living area of urban households in China had reached 36.5 square meters.7 The rapid increase of housing construction has improved the living quality of urban and rural residents.This has also resulted in increased development of construction land and consu
159、mption of building materials.(d)Urban municipal infrastructure and transportation construction Urban infrastructure and transportation construction are also key drivers of resource consumption and carbon emissions for building materials.In 2020,there was a marked increase in the urban water supply p
160、ipelines(reached 1,005,000 km,4.0 times that of 2000);the natural gas pipelines(reached 849,300 km,25.2 times that of 2000);and in the urban heating area(which reached 9,833 million m2,8.9 times that of 2000).86 Source:Review Announcement Catalogue of China Development Zones(2018 Edition)7Based on t
161、he 7th census8 Source:2020 Statistical Yearbook of Urban-Rural Construction,and 2020 Statistical Yearbook of Urban ConstructionChapter II-Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under the“30-60”target13B.The challenges of carbon emission reductions in Chinas cities1.High and rising total carbo
162、n emissions increasing energy consumption and carbon emissionsAccording to recent research(Liu,2023),Chinas total carbon emissions were approximately 11 GtCO2e in 2022,representing 28.87%of global carbon emissions,9 with a per capita carbon emission of 7.8 tons.For city area,As Chinas urban carbon e
163、mission statistics is not available,this chapter features ten cities10for analysis and is based on two different sources of monitoring data for urban carbon emission.From Figures 2.2,it can be noted that significant differences exist in carbon emissions,even among those more developed places,which h
164、as a bearing on their economy and industrial structures.The emission growth has been slowing down since 2010 particularly after 2015.11Figure 2.2 Carbon emissions diagram of 10 typical cities(million tons)0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.020002000420052006200720082009200016
165、201720182019ChongqingShanghaiBeijingShenzhenTianjinNanjingSuzhouGuangzhouXianHangzhouNote:Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets.129Source:China Emission Accounts and Datasets(CEADs)10Ten cities are Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,and Chongqing(four municipalities directly under the central government in Ch
166、ina),and Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta region,as well as Nanjing,Hangzhou and Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta region,together with Xian in the west.All these 10 cities are relatively economic prosperous ones.11Note:Chinas regional statistics are based on administrative divisions,
167、so this is the scope of the“cities”in this paper,i.e.,the administrative region of prefectural-level cities.However,unlike the United States and other countries,there are still a large number of non-urbanized areas in China,even within the prefectural-level city boundaries,and it is the municipal bo
168、undaries of prefectural cities that are really more comparable to the Metropolitan Statistical Area of the United States.12“Carbon Emission List of 290 Chinese Cities”of China Emission Accounts and Datasets(CEADs).https:/ Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-Sout
169、h Cooperation2.Urban living sector is difficult to achieve carbon emission peak by 2030 Recent research,the 2020 Emissions Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP),13confirms that the current household consumption of greenhouse gas emissions,accounts for about two-thirds of the g
170、lobal total emissions.This is based on the consumption-based accounting method of greenhouse gas emissions.Chinas urban carbon emissions,in contrast,are mainly from the industry and fixed assets investment(figure 2.3).Based on the structure of carbon emissions in the ten cities,the industrial sector
171、 accounts for 40-90%,while those in urban life,transportation and service industries,account for a relatively smaller part.This is because the economy of most of Chinas major cities are manufacturing-oriented,with 30-50%share in the GDP.Whether the dual carbon strategy in cities can be delivered,the
172、refore,depends on transformation of economic structure,energy mix and GDP energy intensity.Figure 2.3 Direct carbon emission composition of 10 cities based on CCG data0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%ChongqingShanghaiBeijingShenzhenTianjinNanjingSuzhouGuangzhouXianHangzhouTransportationDomesticIn
173、dustrialService SectorArgricultureSource:Based on the“China City Carbon Dioxide Emissions Dataset”(2020)of the China City Greenhouse Gas Working Group.Over the past twenty years,the per capita living energy consumption in these ten cities has increased by two to three times.However,compared to the d
174、eveloped countries(2,000-3,000kWh/person/year),the per capita living energy consumption in these ten cities,were only one-third to one-fourth of that of EU countries.According to International Energy Agency(IEA)14,Chinas level of household energy consumption of urban and rural residents remains low.
175、Hence,the demand for daily consumption will continue to increase sharply as their income and consumption capacity increase,which would present extra challenges for Chinas efforts to reduce carbon emissions.13UNEP,2022.Emissions Gap Report 2022.https:/www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-20221
176、4International Energy Agency,2021.An energy sector roadmap to carbon neutrality in China.Available at:https:/www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-china?language=zhChapter II-Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under the“30-60”target15Figure 2.4 Household ele
177、ctricity consumption in different countries(kWh/year)1 0051 3241 7202 1802 6142 6462 8793 1273 1303 6584 1694 4564 7494 8574 9004 3445 9196 7548 91411 15611 30502 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 000The PhilippinesIndonesiaChinaSouth AfricaItalyRussiaGermanyNetherlandsThe United KingdomSpainMalaysiaJapanI
178、relandHong KongFranceAustraliaNew ZealandSwedenThe United States of America CanadaIndiaSource:Enerdata via World Energy Council15A special policy study conducted between 2019 and 2020,on Major Green Technology Innovation and Its Implementation Mechanism of China Council for International Cooperation
179、 on Environment and Development(CCICED)assessed the carbon emissions in urban life and at community level for five types of communities in three mega-cities of Shanghai,Chongqing,and Shenzhen,as well as a smaller city of Jiangshan.16 Initial first-hand data calculated residential energy consumption,
180、transportation energy consumption,municipal energy consumption,and carbon footprint of daily life and diet in the five communities(Figure 2.5),which demonstrated a low carbon emission from Chinas urban living consumption which accounted for one-third to one-fourth of those in EU countries.Additional
181、ly,there was a significant difference in per capita carbon emissions among communities,which was related to differences in corresponding income levels,living conditions,family form,age structure and among other factors.Figure 2.5 Composition of per capita carbon emissions in five typical communities
182、-0.500.511.522.5SH ShiboSH Jing Jiang YuanSZ He YiJS Dong TangCQ Hong Yu PoResidentalTransportationMunicipalFoodGreeningSource:Special policy study Major Green Technology Innovation and Its Implementation Mechanism of CCICED.15 https:/ an invited advisor to CCICED,the author led a two-phase special
183、policy study(SPS)on green urban development in 2019 and 2020,which was jointly completed by the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design(CAUPD),the World Economic Forum(WEF),and the German Environment Agency(UBA).The SPS was released to the international community in September 2020 by CCICED,toget
184、her with the United Nations Development Program(UNDP)and the United Nations Environment Program(UNEP),and some of its key policy recommendations were included in the CCICEDs policy recommendations to the State Council of China.16Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective f
185、rom South-South CooperationAchieving the target of 30-60 in Chinese cities remains challenging,considering the intricate interplay between socio-economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions.Additionally,the structure of energy consumption and carbon emission in Chinese cities,the sta
186、ndard of living and consumption patterns of urban residents and the projected increase in demand further complicates this task.C.Vision for green and low-carbon urban development and the transformation of development approachesThe rapid economic growth in China has resulted in an expansionary urban
187、development path that has put greater pressure on resources and environment.Cities in China need to promote the transformation of urban development through comprehensive policy measures in order to realize the 30-60 goal in urban areas.The CCICED(2020)report proposed a vision for green urban develop
188、ment in China:promoting green production and lifestyle as mainstream values in society;building beautiful,green,prosperous cities;low-carbon and energy-saving,recycling-oriented,equitable and inclusive,safe and healthy.To realize this vision,China needs to adopt more comprehensive policies and measu
189、res in the urban sector,to promote the transformation of urban development and overcome the lock-in effect of the traditional development model,through the promotion of green production and lifestyles,including conservation and reduction of the use of public resources and energy,recycling of product
190、ion and construction methods,responsible consumption and use behavior,and harmless decomposition and recycling of waste.17Overall,China has been promoting the transformation of urban development in three areas:1.Legal and institutional development Currently,China is initiating legislative work relat
191、ed to the low-carbon development strategy for urban and rural construction.At the same time,some cities are trying to develop local regulations for urban carbon reduction.Moreover,China is in the process of formulating and revising a standardized system for urban green and low-carbon development.Acc
192、ording to relevant studies18 China has cumulatively formulated and revised more than 3,000 standards related to green development.For urban green development,a series of standards have been promulgated,such as the Standard for Calculating Carbon Emissions from Buildings and the Evaluation Standard f
193、or Green Ecological Urban Areas.2.Green development-oriented planning systemIn 2015,the central government put forward the general requirement of improving the spatial planning system-scientifically and rationally laying out and regulating production space,living space and ecological space.Subsequen
194、tly,in 2018,the central government established a new spatial planning system for the national territory,which integrated urban-rural and land planning.This approach prioritizes natural resources management and urban development with stricter controls in place.This institutional reform is a significa
195、nt step towards sustainable city development.This new territorial spatial planning emphasizes more integrated planning and control of the whole area and all elements including delineating rigid urban growth boundaries and farmland protection boundaries-which play an obvious role in curbing the blind
196、 17Li Xiaojiang,Dominic Waughray et al.202118State Council Information Office,2023.Chinas Green Development in the New Era.Available at:https:/ II-Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under the“30-60”target17expansion of cities,the disorderly growth of urban and rural construction land and
197、the over-occupation of farmland.In the new territorial spatial planning,the new concepts of green and low-carbon development,energy transition,ecological security,and the use of natural solutions to optimize spatial layout to cope with climate change and reduce carbon emissions have become the new c
198、ontent of urban planning.In addition,the new planning system requires environmental impact assessment of territorial spatial planning,to minimize the negative impact of planning on the environment.3.Research,development,and promotion of green technologiesThe development of applicable,efficient and l
199、ow-cost green technologies and products in response to urban needs is necessary for the realization of the 30-60 goal.This will not only promote the growth of green and low-carbon industries but also contribute to economic revitalization,creating a mutually beneficial situation for both the 30-60 st
200、rategy and the economy.D.Policies and strategies towards green and low-carbon urban developmentTo advance green low-carbon urban development,China has now formulated and made progress in the implementation of a series of specific policies and strategies.1.More stringent control of resource and energ
201、y(a)Strict control of the growth of construction landIn 2008,China introduced strictest land conservation system to effectively regulate the expansion of construction land.This,along with the adherence to the strictest farmland protection system,formed the two strictest land management systems,namel
202、y:Outline of the 13th Five-year Plan for Land and Resources in 2016,issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources of the Peoples Republic of China,proposing to protect the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land;and Implementation of the dual control policy over the total amount and intensity of co
203、nstruction land.China has achieved a 40.85%reduction in construction land use area per unit GDP,resulting in ownership of 1.865 billion mu of arable land by 2020.The development method of incremental expansion has been phased out,with the increasingly stringent land resource management policies,whic
204、h have pressed urban governments to pay more attention to utilization of untreated wastes and organic renewal.(b)Shifting from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions Chinas goals of controlling the total amount of primary energy consumption and cutting energy consumpt
205、ion per unit GDP are proposed for the first time in the 11th Five-year Plan(FYP)of 2006.In 2011,the reduction rate of carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP was included as a binding indicator in the Outline of the 12th Five-year Plan,and carbon emission control goals were classified and determined f
206、or assessment.During the National Conference on Ecological Environmental Protection in July 2023,a central policy was introduced to progressively transition the binding indicator of dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions.This entails incorporating both the overall car
207、bon emissions and carbon emissions per unit of GDP,into the binding indicator utilized for evaluating assess local governments.18Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperation2.Promoting the utilization of the existing stock of buildings and spaces
208、 with organic renewalAt the urban level,the demarcation of urban growth boundaries presses urban development to shift from incremental expansion to utilization of untreated wastes and organic renewal.Beijing Urban Master Plan,for instance,requires the reduction in construction land as well as popula
209、tion density in the downtown area.In Shenzhen,however,secondary development of industrial land has been made according to the needs of industrial transformation,and high-rise-building-based industry has been employed to improve the utilization rate of industrial land.19 The city of Shanghai,on the o
210、ther hand,formulated its local legislation to never widen 64 roads in the old urban area,with a proposed requirement that buildings of over 50 years cannot,in principle,be demolished.20At the neighbourhood level,in line with national policies,the urban renovation featuring large-scale demolition and
211、 reconstruction has been stopped,with the requirement that building demolition in renewal areas should not exceed 30 per cent.In the heart of the historic district of Beijing,expropriation and demolition activities have been completely halted.Instead,an organic renewal approach has been adopted,enco
212、uraging voluntary participation from residents.This method aims to enhance the living standards of the indigenous population,foster social symbiosis and integration,and invigorate the vitality of the esteemed citys heritage.Many large and medium-sized cities,however,have also seen difficulties in pr
213、oviding substantial financial support for extensive large-scale organic renewal.Consequently,there is a lack of institutional and policy support for the comprehensive implementation of urban utilization of untreated wastes and organic renewal.Additionally,it is crucial to undertake reforms and innov
214、ations in the tax,fiscal and financial systems.3.Green building and building energy efficiency retrofits(a)Promotion of green buildings The utilization of energy and the consequent discharge of carbon are pivotal determinants in the domain of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions.China has w
215、itnessed green building and building energy efficiency in the construction industry since the 2000s.The first national standard assessment standard for green building was issued in 2006,with the inception of 100 Green Building Demonstration Projects and 100 Low Energy Building Demonstration Projects
216、 in 2007.Subsequently,in 2008,Regulation on Energy Conservation in Civil Buildings was promulgated.These documents and demonstrations served as the impetus for the initial implementation of green building and building energy conservation programmes.In 2016,the Central government proposed the nationa
217、l building policy of affordability,cost-effectiveness,green and aesthetics,followed by the national Standard for Building Carbon Emission Calculation(BB-T51366-2019),issued in 2019.According to Implementation Plan for Carbon Peaking in Urban-rural Construction issued in 2022,green building standard
218、shall be implemented for all new urban buildings by 2025,and star-rated green buildings shall account for 30%of all buildings.The government has actively advocated for green buildings,resulting in substantial increase from 4 million m2 in 2012 to 2 billion m2 in 2021.21 The proportion of new green b
219、uildings nationwide has consequently exceeded 90%.Overall,however,the proportion of top star-rated green buildings was not very high.19Shenzhen Pilot Reform Program for Quality Industrial Space Supply深圳市优质产业空间供给试点改革方案,2021;Implementation Program for Approval of Shenzhen“Industry to Buildings”Project
220、s深圳市“工业上楼”项目审批实施方案,202320Several Opinions on the Planning and Management of Roads(Streets and Alleys)for Landscape Protection in the City of Shanghai关于本市风貌保护道路(街巷)规划管理的若干意见,200721CCTV,Chinas new building“greening”has exceeded 90 percent,https:/ II-Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under
221、the“30-60”target19Figure 2.6 Proportion of green building area in Chinas new urban buildings in those years202120%27%42%56%84%77%20202001620150%10%40%30%50%70%60%20%80%90%65%Source:The white paper Chinas green development in the new era22(b)Accelerating energy-efficiency in buildings Most
222、 buildings completed in China prior to the year 2000 have poor insulation performance,demonstrated in the energy consumption through windows,consuming 2-3 times more energy and the exterior walls and roofs consuming 3-5 times more energy than those in developed countries.During the winter season,the
223、 heating energy consumption in the northern part of the country accounts for 36%of the total building energy consumption nationwide.The average heating energy consumption per unit area is equivalent to 20kg/m2 of standard coal,which is 2-4 times that of Europe under the same latitude conditions.23Ch
224、ina commenced pilot project for building heating metering since the 1980s,aimed at reducing energy consumption through metering and charging methods.In the 2000s,Beijing,Shenzhen and other first-tier cities began to have energy consumption metering and monitoring platforms in government buildings an
225、d large public buildings for less heating and air-conditioning(AC)energy consumption.Additionally,since the 2010s,big cities in the north represented by the capital city,have begun energy-saving renovation of existing buildings.The refurbishment of external walls and roofs,coupled with the insulatio
226、n of doors and windows,has significantly reduced the consumption of heating and AC energy,as well as carbon emissions.This has resulted in improved user experience and a reduction in living expenses for the residents.Based on calculations,Chinas recently constructed and refurbished buildings have th
227、e potential to significantly reduce energy consumption by nearly 300 million tons of standard coal,reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 740 million tons as of the end of 2019,thus slowing down the growth rate of total building energy consumption.2422The white paper Chinas green development in the new
228、era by the State Council Information Office of the Peoples Republic of China,Jan.2023.23Zhang Tengfei,2023:Analysis of the energy-saving transformation situation of Chinas existing residential buildings J.Sichuan Building Materials,1-3.24Peoples Daily,improving energy efficiency of buildings,promoti
229、ng low carbon development,https:/ Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperation4.Green construction and green building materials(a)Promotion of prefabricated buildings The carbon emissions from building materials and construction processes account for ab
230、out 30%of the total carbon footprint throughout the entire lifecycle of buildings.In China,most buildings and municipal facilities are constructed on-site,exacerbating the issue of energy consumption and carbon emissions.In 2015,the country initiated the promotion of prefabricated buildings and in 2
231、017,the Action Plan of Prefabricated Buildings for the 13th Five-year Plan Period was released.Subsequently,a catalogue of experience promotion for prefabricated buildings was issued in 2022 emphasizing factory-based production and prefabricated construction of building components.According to Imple
232、mentation Plan for Carbon Peaking in Urban-rural Construction,prefabricated buildings shall account for 40%of the floor area of new buildings that year by 2025.By 2021,the floor area of new prefabricated buildings nationwide had reached nearly 740 million m2,an increase of 18%compared with the previ
233、ous year.25Some municipal governments have subsidized the incremental costs of prefabricated buildings and incorporated these costs into government investment budgets and other incentives.The efficacy of energy-saving and carbon reduction in the current prefabricated buildings continues to be a subj
234、ect of controversy within the business and academic communities.Furthermore,the effectiveness of factory-based production and prefabricated construction still require further evaluation and practical verification.(b)Advancements in the development of green building materialsThe building material sce
235、ne has consistently served as a focal point of energy consumption and carbon emissions,resulting in a cumulative carbon emission of 1.65 billion tons nationwide in 2020.Given that carbon emissions from cement production account for about 70%within the building material industry,the Implementation Pl
236、an for Carbon Peaking in the Building Material Industry mandates the reduction of energy consumption and carbon emission intensity in key products such as cement,glass and ceramics.As China undergoes substantial transformations in its economic structure,there will be a continued reduction in the sca
237、le of construction for transportation and municipal infrastructure.Consequently,the demand for cement will also experience a substantial decline.Related studies26 confirm that the reduction in cement production will account for 69%of the carbon abatement within the cement industry.The primary techno
238、logical paths to achieving carbon neutrality in the cement industry encompass the utilization of low-carbon cement to reduce carbon emissions,enhancing energy efficiency to minimize carbon output,adopting alternative energy sources to mitigate carbon emissions,implementing carbon sequestration techn
239、iques to reduce carbon footprint and various other methods.According to a technical roadmap for carbon reduction in the cement industry published by a professional organization27 the primary measures to be implemented prior to 2030 include enhancing energy efficiency and discontinuing inefficient pr
240、oduction capacity.Additionally,complete utilization of alternative fuels is targeted to be achieved by 2040.Since the majority of current cement kilns are expected to reach the end of their operational lifespan by approximately 2050,the potential for fuel substitution through the utilization of elec
241、tricity and hydrogen energy is anticipated.25A list of experience promotion for prefabricated buildings(Batch 1)26China Building Materials Academy,Pilot Demonstration Study on Carbon Neutralization Path and Collaborative Disposal in Chinas Cement Industry27 IbidChapter II-Chinas green and low-carbon
242、 urban development under the“30-60”target215.Green transportation and electric vehicles(a)Low-carbon passenger transportation structure in urban areas Chinas urban built-up areas have a population density of over 10,000 people/km2,facilitating public transportation and cycling.Rail transit in big ci
243、ties has thrived in the past decade,with electric bicycles replacing the more traditional versions.This has largely suppressed the trend of excessive reliance on cars for motorization and overall maintained,a transportation structure of more green transportation and relatively low-carbon development
244、.The table 2.1 below provides a summary of the mode of travel structures in the main cities.Table 2.1 List of the full-mode travel structures in key citiesCityYearTravel Structures(%)WalkBicycleElectric bicycleBusRail transitCarOtherTotalBeijing202031.215.511.714.724.32.6.915.915.4243.910
245、0Shanghai202124.217.39.221.422.45.5100201524.615.914.81819.77100Changsha201834.12.68.918.84.625.75.3100200935.83.215.723011.211.1100Shijiazhuang20202516.5235.42.623.54100198633.957.805.1003.2100Wuhan202042.24.113.612.16.619.12.3100Hangzhou201923.15.222.712.84.826.84.6100Xiamen202026.92.219123.72214.
246、3100Taiyuan20222611.921.59.71.318.511.1100Source:Annual reports of urban transportation development for Beijing,Shanghai,and Wuhan;Collected project data for other cities.(b)Making great efforts to develop urban rail transportation and public busesGiving Priority to public transportation,promoting t
247、he comprehensive development of transit metropolises,and actively fostering green travel,are crucial measures for Chinas transportation system to effectively implement the 30-60 strategy.In 2021,China witnessed the operation of 709,400 buses,transportation of 48.9 billion passengers via buses and el
248、ectric buses throughout the year,290 urban rail lines with 23.7 billion passengers all the year round.28 Since 1997,when Beijing witnessed its inaugural bus lane,more than 1,300 bus lanes had been opened in 230 cities nationwide by 2004.During the past decade,most gasoline-powered buses in cities ha
249、ve gone electric,thereby reducing the carbon emissions associated with public transportation and contributing to a greener development.The urban rail transit costs as high as 500-1,000 million yuan/km,while the financial subsidy for daily operations reaches up to 10-30 million yuan/km annually.This
250、has resulted in an augmented financial burden on local governments.To this end,the Central government has made numerous interventions over the construction of rail transit and has issued regulatory policies since the 1990s.This is particularly evident in densely populated cities in China,while rail
251、transit has proven to be highly advantageous in addressing urban transportation requirements.28Source:National Bureau of Statistics22Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperation(c)Promotion of the use of bicycles and e-bikesIn the past decade,Chi
252、na has borne witness to how bicycles were replaced by electric ones.A comprehensive examination of literature reveals that the present utilization of manual and electric two-wheeled vehicles in China has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 10,000 tons.This translates to a conservation of app
253、roximately 6.6 million litres of gasoline.29China has acquired a substantial quantity of over 300 million electric bicycles,30 which function as a prevalent mode of transportation for not only the vast Chinese population,but also extend beyond its borders.Given their competitive nature,as environmen
254、tally friendly means of transportation,electric bicycles should be regarded as the most important carriers in both urban and rural areas of China,particularly as the primary energy sources have transitioned towards sustainable alternatives.(d)Bicycle and electric bike sharing for the last mile users
255、By the end of 2020,bike-sharing was in operation in more than 360 cities in China,with a total of 19.45 million vehicles deployed and an average daily order volume exceeding 45.7 million units.31Chinas bicycle sharing system constitutes paid rental of incremental supply,rather than shared use of exi
256、sting resources.It has facilitated short-distance travel and feeder services and is a preferred option for residents to travel the last mile.Defining shared bicycles as environmentally friendly and low carbon is,however,challenging due to the substantial resource investment and low utilization.32Chi
257、nas possession of over 8 million shared electric bicycles,effectively reduces carbon emissions by 1.64 million tons annually.33 Case studies have shown that each shared electric bike can effectively substitute 3-4 private motor vehicles,while remaining economically viable for operators and financial
258、ly accessible to users.(e)Development of electric vehicles Electric vehicles,especially electric cars,have long been a pivotal industry receiving substantial support from the government.By 2021,the ownership of new energy vehicles(NEVs),dominated by electric cars,had surged to 7.8 million,accounting
259、 for about 50%of the global aggregate.Moreover,China is home to 508,900 new energy buses,accounting for 71.7%of the total number of buses,along with 2,078,000 new energy taxis.34 As buses and taxis are frequently and extensively used electric buses play a significant role in mitigating carbon emissi
260、ons.29China Bicycle Association,2022 research report on the green travel index of two-wheel bicycles30Qianzhan Industry Research Institute,2020.Research on the development status and investment prospects of Chinas electric bicycle industry.31 Department of Transportation October 22,2022 Press Confer
261、ence,http:/ times/day on average,Source:traffic survey data from the Transportation Branch of CAUPD33Aurora Industry Research Institute and Xian Jiaotong University,Low Carbon Travel Makes Life Better-Social Value Report of Shared Motorcycle34The white paper Chinas green development in the new era b
262、y the State Council Information Office of the Peoples Republic of China,Jan.2023.Chapter II-Chinas green and low-carbon urban development under the“30-60”target23Figure 2.7 2014-2021 Sales and ownership of Chinas new energy vehicles2000202021NEV ownership224291.3153.4260.8380.2
263、492784NEV sales7.533.150.777.7125.6120.6136.7352.400500600700800900Number of vehicles(10,000)Source:The white paper Chinas green development in the new eraElectric vehicles are privileged to receive municipal government support for total volume control,traffic restrictions and other urban
264、 transportation policies.However,controversies exist regarding their full lifecycle carbon reduction effect,the legitimacy of fiscal subsidies and financial support,and lax regulations.Some industry experts have raised concerns regarding Chinas stagnant NEV technology,excessive NEV production capaci
265、ty,and the potential loss of competitiveness due to the withdrawal of supportive policies.6.Green municipal infrastructure and solid waste management(a)Promotion of water environment governance in urban areasOver the last decade,China has focused on mitigating urban water pollution by treating black
266、 and odorous water,resulting in significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from untreated sewage.Such treatment encompasses a range of comprehensive measures,including sewage collection,river closure,construction of sewage treatment plants,reduction of wastewater volume and organic matter con
267、tent and utilization of wetlands and ground ecosystems for purification,among other strategies.Moreover,the Central government provides annual financial subsidies of over 1 billion yuan to treat black and odorous water bodies,motivating urban management.Chinas issuance of the Three-year Action Plan
268、for Improving the Quality and Efficiency of Urban Sewage Treatment in 2019 resulted in a 10%increase in centralized collection rate of domestic sewage in urban areas by 2022,as compared to 2018.In 2022,the country introduced the Implementation Plan for Harmless Treatment and Resource-oriented Utiliz
269、ation of Sludge,mandating all cities to establish a sludge treatment system that is both harmless and resource-oriented by 2025.So far,China has achieved a sludge treatment rate exceeding 90%with a focus on resource-oriented utilization,resulting in a harmless outcome.(b)The development of sponge ci
270、tyIn 2015 China experienced a significant surge in the construction of sponge cities.These cities,functioning as an ecological concept and green infrastructure,serve to safeguard water resources,restore ecosystem,replenish over-exploited groundwater,and alleviate the burden of drainage and flood pre
271、vention works.The Central government has allocated approximately 100 billion yuan in financial resources to construct sponge cities.This initiative commenced in 2015 and involved conducting pilot demonstrations in 100 24Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South
272、-South Cooperationcities across the country.Additionally,the government-imposed regulations on rainwater runoff control in these pilot cities.These efforts can better leverage the synergistic effects of water safety,ecology and environment in the construction of sponge cities.(c)Garbage classificati
273、on and resource-oriented utilization Since 2015,the Central government has prioritized garbage disposal by advocating garbage classification.Pilot demonstrations of domestic waste classification have been conducted in 46 cities,resulting in the establishment of a comprehensive system for classificat
274、ion,collection,transportation,and treatment.Pilot demonstrations of domestic waste classification have been conducted in 46 cities,resulting in the establishment of a comprehensive system for classification,collection,transportation,and treatment.Furthermore,the Central government calls for improvem
275、ent of waste treatment capacity in urban areas.From 2016 to 2020,the domestic waste treatment capacity in urban China increased by 510,000 tons,while the harmless treatment rate of domestic waste reached 99.2%.Consequently,the waste treatment structure should be optimized by replacing the landfill t
276、reatment of an emission rate of about three times higher with domestic waste incineration plants of low carbon emissions to achieve 45%higher waste incineration rate.35It is also imperative to address the issue of untreated waste and substandard treatment facilities.Renovation is necessary,along wit
277、h the implementation of classified garbage treatment and anaerobic digestion of kitchen waste,to produce biomass energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.China aims to establish a management and utilization system for urban construction waste to address the significant amount generated by its rapi
278、d urban development and demolition-construction model.The country targets a resource-oriented utilization of 250 million tons/year by 2025 for less carbon emissions.35 Source:Development Plan for Domestic Waste Classification and Treatment Facilities in Urban Areas during the 14th Five-year Plan Per
279、iodChapter III-Energy transition in China:policy perspectives25ChApTER III.ENERGY TRANSITION IN ChINA:pOLICY pERSpECTIVESEnergy transition plays a key role in Chinas climate agenda,particularly in its strategy for achieving carbon neutrality,to build an ecologically sustainable society in China.Prio
280、r to establishing the 30-60 targets,China released the Energy Revolution Strategy,created to promote energy conservation and renewable energy development.After committing the 30-60 targets,China conceived a comprehensive policy framework to promote the energy transition.This chapter aims to take sto
281、ck of the energy transition so far in China,explore the energy policy in the country,and analyze the policy directions.A.Chinas energy trend and CO2 emission from 1990 to 20211.Energy consumption trend In 1990,the total primary energy consumption in China was 691 million tonnes of oil equivalent(mto
282、e),and 1029mtoe in 2000,2525mtoe in 2010,and 3486mtoe in 2020(see Figure 1).The most rapid increase occurred in the period from 2000 to 2010,with the annual growth rate of 9.39%.Growth was 4.06%annually from 1990 to 2000 and 3.28%from 2010 to 2020.The driving force for this rapid increase in primary
283、 energy consumption from 1995 to 2014 was the rapid increase in the production of energy-intensive products,including steel,cement,glass,aluminum,copper,zinc and lead,ammonia,ethylene,and other products.Figure 3.2 presents the energy use by sectors from 1995 to 2014.Energy intensive products sectors
284、 account for 69.6%of increased energy use from 1995 to 2014,including mining sectors energy demand.And they also account for around 70%of newly increase electricity demand in the same period(NSB,2017).From figure 3.1,we can see that the energy mix experiences few significant changes before 2010.Poli
285、cy support for renewable energy from 2010,the development of renewable energy such as solar PV and wind,started to effect some change,especially after 2020 when all newly installed solar PV and wind power plants had lower cost than existing coal fired power plants.In 1990,the energy mix is coal 76.2
286、%,oil 16.6%,natural gas 2.1%,and others(including renewable energy and nuclear)5.1%.By 2020,the contribution of the“other”category36 had tripled,but coal still dominated energy use,being the largest resource at relatively low cost.Coal consumption in the energy mix has plateaued since 2013 when the
287、Action Plan on Air Quality Control was released,as controlling coal use is one of the top measures to improve air quality(SC,2013).After that,there were several strong policies to control coal use in China,including Energy Revolution Strategy announced in 2014.A move towards wind and solar power(NSB
288、,2022)also helped drive change.With the policy support and technology progress,Chinas solar PV and wind power development leads the world today.Figure 3 presents the installed capacity and power generation from renewable energy(NEA,2022).After 2013 both wind and solar started to be developed in rapi
289、d way,especially solar PV from 2016.After 2016,annual newly increased capacity for solar and wind power accounts for nearly 40%newly installed capacity worldwide and made China a global leader in developing solar and wind power(see Table 1).By 2021,power generation from solar and wind accounted for
290、12.1%of total power generation,while it was 3.9%in 2015,and 1.2%in 2010,with capacity of 49.5TWh in 2010,233.8TWh in 2015,and 981.5TWh in 2021.36Other energy includes renewable energy,and nuclear energy.26Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperat
291、ionAfter 2018,Chinas newly installed capacity of solar PV accounted for more than 40%of globally installed capacity and reached 392GW.Wind power generated 370GW(NEA,2023),or 37%of global capacity.In 2023,there has been an additional spike in solar installation;by August 2023,new capacity exceeded 10
292、0GW.The use of nuclear power continues to rise.China has deployed third-and fourth-generation nuclear power technologies and has emphasized security to assuage potential public concerns.Installed capacity of nuclear in 2010 reached 10.82GW,27.17GW in 2015,and 53.26GW in 2021.After 2018,new construct
293、ion brought 6 units online annually,and then reached 10 units in 2022 with a total capacity of 12GW.Figure 3.1 Primary energy demand in China from 1990 to 20200200025003000350040004020022004200620082001620182020MtoeOtherNature GasOilCoalSource:NSB 2022 Tab
294、le 3.1 Newly installed capacity of solar PV and wind power in China and the world,GWSolar PVWindChinaworldChinaworld201844.310420.651201930.111025.761202048.25317555.9102202287.423037.677.6Source:REN21Chapter III-Energy transition in China:policy perspectives27Figure 3.2 Energy use by sec
295、tors,20000300004000050000600007000080000Agriculture,Forestry,Animal Husbandry,Fishery and Water Mining and Quarrying Mining and Washing of Coal Extraction of Petroleum and Natural Gas Mining and Processing of Ferrous Metal Ores Mining and Processing of Non-Ferrous Metal Ores Mining an
296、d Processing of Nonmetal Ores Mining of Other Ores Processing of Food from Agricultural Products Manufacture of Foods Manufacture of Liquor,Beverages and Refned Tea Manufacture of Tobacco Manufacture of Textile Manufacture of Textile,Wearing Apparel and Accessories Manufacture of Leather,Fur,Feather
297、 and Related Processing of Timber,Manufacture of Manufacture of Furniture Manufacture of Paper and Paper Products Printing and Reproduction of Recording Media Manufacture of Articles for Culture,Education,Arts and Processing of Petroleum,Coking and Processing of Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials
298、 and Chemical Manufacture of Medicines Manufacture of Chemical Fibers Manufacture of Rubber and Plastics Products Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals Smelting and Pressing of Non-ferrous Metals Manufacture of Metal Products Manufacture of General Purp
299、ose Machinery Manufacture of Special Purpose Machinery Manufacture of Automobiles Manufacture of Railway,Ship,Aerospace and Other Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and Apparatus Manufacture of Computers,Communication and Manufacture of Measuring Instruments and Machinery Other Manufacture Utilizat
300、ion of Waste Resources Electric Power,Gas and Water Production and Supply Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power Production and Supply of Gas Production and Supply of WaterConstructionTransport,Storage and PostWholesale,Retail Trade and Hotel,RestaurantsOthersResidential Consumption1
301、9952000200520102014Source:NSB,2017Figure 3.3 Installed capacity of renewable energy0050060070080090020001720182019GWNuclearBiomassSolarWindHydroSource:NEA,202228Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South Cooperation2.CO2 em
302、issionFigure 3.4 presents the CO2 emission in China.Chinas CO2 emissions have increased rapidly since 2000,concurrent with fast growth of economy.After 2013,the rapid growth trend of CO2 emissions slowed as China imposed strict controls on air pollution.Chinas carbon intensity has decreased rapidly
303、to 48.4%,beyond than Chinas commitment in the Copenhagen agreement.After Chinas announcement of its 30-60 targets,Chinas carbon intensity continued to decrease,by 4.6%from 2020 to 2022,even though Chinas economy development faced big challenge during the COVID19 period.Figure 3.4 CO2 emission in Chi
304、na and carbon intensity,00008000600040002000002005201020152020Mt-CO2OtherNatural gasOilCoalSource:IEA,2022B.Energy transition for the 30-60 targets1.OverviewChinas energy usage accounts for around 85%of total CO2 emission,therefore the transition pathway of energy in China
305、is crucial for the 30-60 targets implementation.According to some available domestic studies(Zhang et al,2022;Qin et al,2021;Wang et al,2022;Jiang et al,2018;),meeting the carbon neutrality target before 2060 will require a significant increase of renewable energy as part of the countrys primary ene
306、rgy consumption.Most the studies show the share of non-fossil fuel energy could account for more than 75%in total primary energy demand in China by 2050.And renewable energy dominates this category of energy in the transition,with the share between 43 and 81%by 2050,depending on a studys assumptions
307、.2.Energy transitions scenario in China under the 30-60 targetsBy shifting from fossil to non-fossil fuels,Chinas energy supply could play an important role in cutting CO2 emissions deeply in the future.Recent IPCC reports outline a rapid transition in energy systems around the world and in China.By
308、 2050,renewable energy and nuclear will dominate energy supply(IPCC,2022).This story will be the same in China(Zhang et al,2022;Wang et l,2022;Jiang et al,2021;Xiao and Jiang,2018).Chapter III-Energy transition in China:policy perspectives29Figure 6 shows the primary energy demand in China based on
309、IPAC results(Jiang et al,2021;Jiang et al,2020).The IPAC model is an integrated assessment model to analyze energy transition in the world and in China,starting in the early 1990s,with many publications(Jiang et al,1999;Jiang et al,2006;Jiang et al,2013;Jiang et al,2016;Jiang et al,2018).Figure 3.6.
310、presents power generation in the energy transition scenarios that could reach the 30-60 targets.Because of the transition in power generation,which could be zero emission by 2050,other sectors will use more electricity for their own carbon neutrality transition,promoting electrification in end-use s
311、ectors.As a result,power generation would increase to more than 14000TWh by 2050,with per capita 10320kWh.The energy sector transition will have to be significant for the attainment of the climate goals.Figure 3.5 Primary energy demand in China,energy transition scenario200020052002520302
312、03520402050MtceBio-DieselEthanolBiomass PowerSolarWindNuclearHydroNature GasOilCoal00400050006000Source:Jiang,2022.Figure 3.6 Power generation scenarios for China,energy transition scenario0200040006000800040001600018000TWh20002005200252030203520402050BioSolarWindNul
313、cearHydroNature GasOil fredCoal fredSource:Jiang et al,2021.30Chinas Policy Strategies for Green Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationFigure 3.7 show the installed capacity in power generation sector in China in an energy transition scenario.China will massively expand sola
314、r and wind power,which could enable new manufacturing sectors.In this scenario,renewable energy and nuclear would generate 87%of total power generation;wind power would account for 21%,solar 16.6%,hydro 14%,biomass 7.6%,nuclear power 28%in 2050.(These numbers are 3.3%,0.7%,17.7%,0.3%and 3%in 2015 re
315、spectively.)Coal fired power would account for 5.3%,and natural gas fired power for 7.1%in 2050;they were 71%and 3%in 2015(Figure 8).This is a significant transition in 35 years.Since the life span for fossil fuel-fired power plants is normally more than 35 years,to see this transition by 2050,chang
316、es in energy and power generation need to be made right now.Fossil fuel power generation will have to use carbon capture and storage(CCS)technologies to make their emission as low as possible.By 2050 nearly all of coal fired power and natural gas fired power would be equipped with CCS(see Figure 9).
317、Biomass energy with CCS is a crucial option for a low(or negative)emission scenario in the power generation sector by 2050.By 2050 installed capacity for biomass will be 250GW and equipped with CCS.Biomass for power generation will mainly come from firewood with planted trees.Total biomass demand wi
318、ll be 420 mtce(mega tonnes of coal equivalent),with power generation efficiency 32%with CCS.Figure 3.7 Installed capacity for power generation in China2000200520025203020352040205010MWBiomassSolarWindNuclearHydroNature GasOilCoal00300000400000500000600000700000Source:Jiang et a
319、l,2021Chapter III-Energy transition in China:policy perspectives31Figure 3.8 CCS in power generation sector0050060020030203020402050GWBiomassNGCCIGCC-Fuel CellUSCSCSource:Jiang et al,20213.High share of electricity use in end-use sectors With the transition in energy and power
320、generation,it is possible for power sector to be net zero emission by 2050,or even achieve negative emissions from power generation after 2050.Using electricity to replace fossil fuels in end-use sectors will be a significant option for carbon neutrality in these sectors.An energy transition in the
321、power generation sector would promote the electrification process.In the energy transition scenario for the 30-60 targets,the share of electricity in final energy use would increase from 23.3%in 2015 to 58%in 2050.The transition to electrification could appear in transport,building and industry sect
322、ors.All three will be discussed in this section.In the transportation sector,with the rapid development of electric vehicles,the trend toward electrification in China is clear.Electric locomotives would promote the energy transition in the railway system.Figure 10 presents the final energy use in tr
323、ansport in China;electricity increased its share from 2.1%in 2015 to 38.6%in 2050.Based on previous studies on the electric car industry,significant technological progress will lead to a large increase in market share in 2025.In this scenario analysis,cars will be mainly electric or fuel cell cars.H
324、eavy duty vehicle such as buses and trucks will electric vehicles and fuel cell based.Ships or other water vessels will be green hydrogen-based or use liquid fuel from green hydrogen such as ammonia,methanol,or be fuel cell driven.Airplanes could use hydrogen as energy,but this step might not be ful
325、ly realized by 2050.Bio-fuel will be used for air transport.Small electric airplanes could also play important role in future air transport.Since electric cars are much more efficient than gasoline or diesel cars,liquid fuel demand will decrease sharply after 2030.32Chinas Policy Strategies for Gree
326、n Low Carbon Development:Perspective from South-South CooperationFigure 3.9 Final energy demand in transport sector in China20002005200252030203520402050MtceBiofuelHydrogenElectricityN.GasPetroleum00500600Source:Jiang et al,2021In Chinas residential sector,carbon neutrality wil
327、l entail reducing fossil fuel.Cooking could be mostly from electricity by using new technologies available now,to make traditional Chinese dishes with similar quality as with gas ranges and cooking ovens.However,space heating has been very big challenge because of large demand in both urban and rura
328、l area.Key options for reducing energy from space heaters includes using heat pumps,promoting ultra-low energy use building,and other measures.Heat pumps could be installed on large scale,including air source heat pumps.But in cities it is still difficult to install heat pumps due to the high densit
329、y of high-rise buildings.However,100%electricity use in rural areas is possible because heat pumps work well in low-rise buildings,and more renewable energy could be generated on site.In all cases,highly energy efficient buildings are a must.By using all these options,share of electricity could incr
330、ease from 26.3%in 2015 to 70%in 2050.In the industry sector,the shift from heavy industry to light industry presents a favorable opportunity for promoting electrification,because more electric motor-based manufacturing processes dominate in light industry.Fossil fuel use for industrial processes suc
331、h as in cement manufacture will fall due to decreased of output of energy-intensive products.Some industry process,such as steelmaking,will increase in importance.Steel output from electric arc furnaces will dominate as recycled steel becomes 68%of steel output by 2050;it was 18%in 2015.In the meant
332、ime,hydrogen-based processes could also enter widespread use in steelmaking,petrochemical production,and non-ferrous production processes,which also relies on an electricity-based hydrogen manufacturing process(Xiang et al,2023).Share of electricity in final energy use in industry sector could incre
333、ase from 24.9%in 2015 to 48.7%in 2050.C.Chinas Policies strategies for energy transitionEnergy security,resource conservation,and environmental protection have all been part of Chinas energy policies,in the context of its development strategies,since1990.Energy policy is normally driven by the central government,which also plays a key role in energy supply and consumption.Before the 30-60 targets