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1、Buying into betterThe future of the consumer industryIntroductionStatesman,scientist,and philosopher Sir Francis Bacon pioneered the scientific method in the early 17th century.Bacon emphasized the inductive methodhumans hypothesizing,testing,and honing theories by scrutinizing,measuring,and experim
2、enting.His emphasis on empirical observation and experimentation has been a driving force in the scientific revolution for the past 500 years.1 Recently,however,there have been a series of breakthroughs that are catapulting humanity beyond the scientific revolution.A recent study tested an artificia
3、l intelligence(AI)approach called“deep learning”for the ability to identify glaucoma in aging patients by analyzing retinal images.2 The AI approach not only outperformed trained ophthalmologists in detecting glaucoma,but it also surprised researchers as it used the images to accurately identify pat
4、ients biological sex,a relationship that was previously unknown to the ophthalmologists.3 This was significant because the AI approach made this discovery without the need for a human first to hypothesize.While it may seem minor,this step-change has the potential to unleash significant disruption in
5、 health,science,and humanity.But this breakthrough isnt limited to scientific discovery.The scientific method is also a managerial method used by most organizations to make critical strategic and operational decisions.This innovation places all businesses on the precipice of a dramatic technology-fu
6、eled change.Buying into better|The future of the consumer industry 2IntroductionStatesman,scientist,and philosopher Sir Francis Bacon pioneered the scientific method in the early 17th century.Bacon emphasized the inductive methodhumans hypothesizing,testing,and honing theories by scrutinizing,measur
7、ing,and experimenting.His emphasis on empirical observation and experimentation has been a driving force in the scientific revolution for the past 500 years.1 Recently,however,there have been a series of breakthroughs that are catapulting humanity beyond the scientific revolution.A recent study test
8、ed an artificial intelligence(AI)approach called“deep learning”for its ability to identify glaucoma in aging patients by analyzing retinal images.2 The AI approach not only outperformed trained ophthalmologists in detecting glaucoma but also surprised researchers.It used the images to accurately ide
9、ntify patients biological sex,a relationship that was previously unknown to the ophthalmologists.3 This discovery was significant because the AI approach didnt require a human first to hypothesize it.While it may seem minor,this step-change has the potential to unleash significant disruption in heal
10、th,science,and humanity.But this breakthrough isnt limited to scientific discovery.The scientific method is also a managerial method used by most organizations to make critical strategic and operational decisions.This innovation places all businesses on the precipice of a dramatic technology-fueled
11、change.3Buying into better|The future of the consumer industry Change is a staple of humanity,and nowhere is the velocity of change more evident than in the consumer industry,which has seen decades of dramatic transformation.But what this chronicle of change may obscure is that along with the breakt
12、hrough described above,a broad set of forces have placed the industry on the verge of an even more momentous paradigm.Simply put,the industry faces a once-in-a-century economic,social,and technological transition.To add complexity,this is happening against a backdrop of significant challenges,such a
13、s accelerated climate change,growing economic inequality,declining trust,increasing polarization,and worsening global financial conditions.Not only do companies need to navigate this once-in-a-century transition,but they must do it to address critical issues for society and the planet more broadly.T
14、he forces driving transition have implications for consumer companies across all three primary business dimensions:markets,models,and mechanics.Todays empowered consumers are using their dollars to effect the change they want to see in the world.At the same time,facing monumental transitions,compani
15、es are choosing to extend their mission beyond shareholder value to encompass broader ecological and societal issues.Together,theyre buying into better.At Deloitte,we believe that the future isnt something to be predicted,but instead created.Forward-thinking organizations should act with agency and
16、alter decisions concerning markets,models,and mechanics to be a valued brand of tomorrow.Ultimately,we will all need to buy into better.MarketsHow businesses execute workHow businesses employ laborHow businesses make strategic and operational decisionsWhat is soldWho it is being sold toWhat products
17、 or services create valueModelsHow materials and capabilities are sourcedWhat new models create valueHow businesses organize and configureMechanicsBuying into better|The future of the consumer industry 4Through an extensive,yearlong effort studying the future of the consumer industry,we have identif
18、ied six forces that are critical to understanding the next decade of change:The changing consumer,becoming more diverse and transforming across multiple dimensions An evolving society and culture,with consumers breaking free of traditional anchors Exponential xTech,with advancements in infotech and
19、a broad set of technologies,including biotech and material science,that will make progress of the past decade pale by comparison Radical industry upheaval,with the dynamics shaping the industry increasing in pace and intensity Extreme climate change and its economic impact,which will put pressure on
20、 the consumer industry to transform itself Shifting economics,policy,and power that are taking a hard pivot,becoming increasingly uncertain,and requiring a more flexible approach to managementThese six forces are converging to pressure forward-thinking companies into leveraging new markets,models,an
21、d mechanics to thrive.Complicating matters,executives must do more than thriveat least,in the traditional sense of the word.The mindset of executives in the next decade should expand beyond its current focus on increasing shareholder value to one that incorporates new dimensions of society and the p
22、lanet.Charting a successful course will take clarity,vision,and courage.The six forces shaping the industry Change is a staple of humanity,and nowhere is the velocity of change more evident than in the consumer industry.5Buying into better|The future of the consumer industry Buying into better|The f
23、uture of the consumer industry The changing consumerAn evolving society and cultureRadical industryupheavalShifting economics,policy,and powerExponentialxTechExtreme climatechangeThe icons representing the six forces were created using text prompts and generative AI imagining the output.5Buying into
24、 better|The future of the consumer industry 6Over the past 20 years,the consumer industry has experienced a dramatic increase in customer empowerment in terms of choice and accessibility.The coming decade will see an exponential surge in personal choice and an accelerated shift from a traditional su
25、pply-driven model to one that is demand-driven.Radically expanded optionality for consumers means achieving relevancy and suitability at the individual level are the new competitive battleground.While suitability speaks to the relevancy of products or servicesmeaning an increase in localized,persona
26、lized,or even customized offeringsit doesnt stop there.With expanded optionality also comes greater complexity.The shift to greater customer choice will continue to be accompanied by an increase in new channels,brands,service models,and formats to meet increasingly diverse consumer demands.Consumer
27、companies built in a time of mass production,mass distribution,and mass marketing must recognize a shift from mass to micro,and acknowledge they are not optimally built for these new requirements.The six forces signal an evolution of what goods and services will capture an increasing share of consum
28、ers wallets and drive company growth.For example,the coming decade will likely see dramatic growth of digital goods and services.In defining digital goods and services we are not referring to digital access to physical goods and services.We are talking about actual digital goods and services,or hybr
29、id offerings where physical products come with digital features or subscriptions(e.g.,to a digital mental health service,home fitness subscription,new weapons for an in-game character,digital video and content,personal finance app,non-fungible tokens).This area of consumer spending will likely grow
30、disproportionately and displace spending on traditional physical categories as a percentage of the consumer wallet.Industry implications:Markets,models,and mechanics Digital goods and servicesDeloitte estimates that in the United States,2.9%of the consumer wallet is now spent on digital goods and se
31、rvices,a category that is primed to grow dramatically.6 By comparison,apparel constituted 3.8%of the consumer wallet during the same period.Spending on digital goods and services is much higher for the younger consumer,reaching as high as 3.2%for Gen Z.To harness the opportunities brought on by the
32、six forces of change and boldly lead their organizations through the next decade,executives will need to understand the implications of the forces along three dimensions of business:markets,models,and mechanics.Digital goods and services are already material and rapidly growing in specific sectors.T
33、he potential widespread adoption of augmented reality or virtual reality and the growth in connected health and wellness over the next decade will only accelerate what are already significant growth opportunities.As impacts(or externalities)of businesses on society and the planet become more apparen
34、t,the importance of corporate responsibility will shift from what today is often treated as a regulatory matter to one of a clear value proposition in the market.For example,as ecological damage accelerates,and the impact on the individual and the economy becomes tangible,consumers are likely to see
35、k products and services that contribute to reversing this trend.Further,trust,privacy,equity,and advocacy will also become essential to the consumer and capital markets.Companies can no longer stand on the sidelines:As younger generations,who place a higher priority on these corporate values,4 matur
36、e and take on a more significant economic role in the market,expectations on companies as leaders and citizens will grow,and leading companies will need to engage in this changing role.MarketsBuying into better|The future of the consumer industry 7To thrive in the future,the consumer industry will c
37、ontinue accelerating convergence with other industry segments.For example,the continued acceleration of the infotech and biotech revolutions has the potential to create massive market upheaval and opportunity.As the population ages,health care is likely to converge and increasingly become a consumer
38、 market,shifting from treatment-related spending toward well-being-focused spending.Discretionary dollars will progressively fund this shift.By 2033,we expect well-being-focused spending will eclipse traditional treatment-related expenses,growing from a$700 million market in 2019 to a$3.5 trillion m
39、arket by 2033.5 Additionally,advances in food production methods,consumer tech,battery capacity,and material science will drive the reengineering of old products and the development of new markets,products,and services.Meanwhile,the next decade will see a seismic shift in the supply chain.Consumer o
40、rganizations that today depend on physical supply chains may need to introduce and develop a supply chain for digital goods and services.The move from mass to micro implies a potentially broader,more complex assortment flowing through the traditional supply chain.Meanwhile,organizations may need to
41、diversify sourcing to increase agility and resiliency and address mounting geopolitical and disruption risks.Finally,the coming decade will likely see increased automation,robotics,drones,and other more efficient ways to address last-mile issues.Delivering on the complexity that accompanies these in
42、novations more efficiently while continuing to face margin pressure will be a critical success factor.Together,these new requirements demand a rethinking of how organizations build,operate,and source their supply chain.The emergence and growth of capability-as-a-service coupled with the advancement
43、of digital technologies (e.g.,natural processing language,robotics,AI)will also drive the reconfiguration of an industry that largely owns its capabilities,technology,and infrastructure today.The industrys fast pivot to cloud computing speaks to the shift.Very few traditional consumer companies are
44、building data centers;instead,they are looking to third-party service providers and ecosystem partners.The choice to leverage a third-party service provider and adopt disruptive enabling digital has democratized capabilities that enable greater agility and reduce barriers to entry.This democratizati
45、on is apparent in small and midsize consumer companies that can improve their speed to market by abandoning the physical limitations created by traditional do-it-yourself models.The coming decade will likely see increased automation,robotics,drones,and other more efficient ways to address last-mile
46、issues.ModelsBuying into better|The future of the consumer industry 8A healthy economy needs a healthy job market,and a healthy industry requires a healthy,well-trained,agile workforce.Executing what amounts to a potentially more complex,costly operating model requires a different approach to value-
47、chain execution.A good deal of decision-making and operations that today are human-driven will be displaced in the next decade,ushering in the age of AI and automation.Automation will rapidly move from displacing physical duties to addressing more cognitive and creative tasks.These technology and an
48、alytics capabilities will enable greater precision,granularity,efficiency,and effectiveness of operations and customer experiences and will connect consumer companies closer to real-time customer demand signals.On the back of this move to automation will be an increase in visible workforce extremes.
49、Its estimated that in the coming decade,45 million jobs7 in the United States will vanish via automation.At one end of the spectrum,we will likely continue to have certain jobs and skills in incredibly high-demand fields(e.g.,data science,technology,material science,biotech,automation technologies),
50、but at the other extreme will be jobs that are permanently displaced.Though,well likely see the emergence of new job categories as well,sometimes called new collar jobs.Failure to address this potential outcome could have serious consequences,as these arent just workers,they are customers.A healthy
51、economy needs a healthy job market,and a healthy industry requires a healthy,well-trained,agile workforce.Over the past 10 years,consumer spending has grown by 3.7%CAGR;8 yet our analysis of the average growth of a broad collection of traditional consumer companies fails to meet that benchmark.While
52、 there is growth in the market,spending is shifting to different types of organizations and categories(e.g.,technology platforms,consumer tech,services,consumer health care,digital natives).The same is true for EBITDA,where the same collection of companies fails to meet the S&P500 benchmark.9The mec
53、hanics of financial health in the industry are worsening.There is financial strength;however,new categories,competitors,and markets signal the industrys new centers of financial gravity.In the coming decade,consumer companies will need to evaluate their financial mechanics as consumer spending conti
54、nues to shift to address skyrocketing nondiscretionary costs(e.g.,housing,health care,education)and from traditional consumer categories to new and emerging areas.MechanicsBuying into better|The future of the consumer industry 9The good news is that we are not powerless we have agency.Human beings a
55、re not merely passive beneficiaries of the future but can actively create their future world through their actions.That is not to say they have all the tools needed to navigate the paradigm shift consumer companies will experience in the coming decade.Consumer industry executives need information,cl
56、arity,and expertise to harness the opportunities to match up with the broad,rapidly advancing,converging forces.At Deloitte,we believe the future isnt something to be predicted but instead created.The future isnt preordained but is constructed choice by choice.We have the influence,agency,and power
57、to choose where we are going and to shape the future for the better.What future do we wantand more importantly,what future do we have the courage to forge?Recognizing,monitoring,and assessing the six forces and using that information for effective scenario planning against an ever-changing landscape
58、 will be critical.The future will require companies to understand the implications and will compel continued examination of markets,models,and mechanics as they chart their paths to Buying into better.Agency and choiceWe have influence,agency,and power to choose where we are going and to shape the f
59、uture for the better.Buying into better|The future of the consumer industry 10The authors want to thank their colleagues Gabriella Boros,Jenna Bresadola,Ren Bromage,Anna Conger,Eamonn Kelly,Shrey Maheshwari,Martha McCoy,Diptoroop Mukherjee,Stephen Rogers,Office for the Future team,and other Deloitte
60、 Consumer Industry professionals who provided input,analysis,insights,and perspectives in the development of this research.AcknowledgmentsAuthorsKasey LobaughPrincipalChief Futurist|US Consumer Industry Deloitte Consulting LLP+1 816 802 Anthony WaelterVice ChairUS Consumer Industry LeaderDeloitte LL
61、P+1 312 486 Cole OmanSenior Manager Office for the futureDeloitte LLP+1 212 436 Alisa LocricchioSenior ManagerDeloitte Consulting LLP+1 917 859 Buying into better|The future of the consumer industry 11Endnotes1.Famous Scientists,“Francis Bacon,”accessed December 15,2022.2.Daniele M.S.Barros et al.,“
62、Machine learning applied to retinal image processing for glaucoma detection:Review and perspective,”BioMedical Engineering OnLine 19,no.20(2020).3.Edward Korot et al.,“Predicting sex from retinal fundus photographs using automated deep learning,”Scientific Reports 11,no.10286(2021).4.Deloitte,Deloit
63、te Global 2022 Gen Z and Millennial Survey:Striving for balance,advocating for change,2022.5.Kulleni Gebreyes et al.,“Breaking the cost curve,”Deloitte Insights,2021.6.Deloitte analysis based on our proprietary Global State of the Consumer Tracker.7.World Economic Forum,The future of jobs report 202
64、0,October 2020.8.Bureau of Economic Analysis,“Data tools,”accessed December 15,2022.9.Macrotrends,“S&P Global EBITDA 20102022|SPGI,”accessed December 15,2022.This publication contains general information only and Deloitte is not,by means of this publication,rendering accounting,business,financial,in
65、vestment,legal,tax,or other professional advice or services.This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services,nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business.Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your bus
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