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1、1Cushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsHONG KONGOFFICE,RETAIL&RESIDENTIAL MARKETSQ3 2023Cushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets2Cushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets3OVERALL RENTS REMAINED UNDER
2、PRESSUREHong Kong East and Kowloon West witnessed most notable quarterly declineSubmarketsApr 19(Peak)Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q-o-Q YTD 2023 ForecastPrime Central$165.2$108.9$106.3$105.2$102.5$101.6-0.9%-4.4%-6 -4%Greater Central$138.5$94.7$92.0$90.7$88.6$87.3-1.5%-5.1%-6 -4%Wanchai/Causeway Bay$78
3、.6$54.5$52.8$52.3$52.1$51.2-1.7%-3.0%-4 -2%Hong Kong East$56.3$46.0$44.3$43.3$41.4$40.4-2.4%-8.6%-9 -7%Hong Kong South$36.3$29.2$28.2$27.9$28.1$28.1-0.2%-0.6%-2 0%Greater Tsimshatsui$68.2$47.6$46.3$45.5$44.5$43.6-2.0%-5.8%-7 -5%Kowloon East$36.9$29.3$28.1$27.4$26.8$26.3-2.0%-6.4%-8 -6%Kowloon West$4
4、4.2$33.9$32.9$32.9$32.6$31.9-2.2%-3.3%-4 -2%All Districts Average$75.9$53.9$52.0$51.2$50.0$49.1-1.7%-5.5%-7 -5%Unit:Net effective rent,HK$/sf/monthPrime Central:12 prime office buildings in Greater CentralGreater Central:Admiralty,Central and Sheung Wan including Prime CentralHong Kong East:North Po
5、int,Quarry Bay and Tai Koo ShingHong Kong South:Wong Chuk Hang and Pok Fu LamGreater Tsimshatsui:Tsimshatsui,Tsimshatsui East,Hung Hom and Kowloon StationKowloon East:Kwun Tong,Ngau Tau Kok,Kowloon Bay and Kai TakKowloon West:Kowloon Tong,Mongkok,Cheung Sha Wan,Kwai Chung and Tsuen WanNote:Rents are
6、 based on NFA,exclusive of air conditioning&management fees,and gov.ratesSource:Cushman&Wakefield ResearchNote:Data as of Sept 20234550556065707580Social UnrestApr 2019(Peak):$75.9Sep 2023:$49.1Diff:-35.3%Q3 2023$49.1Net Effective Rent,HK$psf/mOverall Hong Kong Grade A Office RentsCushman&Wakefield|
7、Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets4NET ABSORPTION FELL FURTHERGreater Central is the only submarket witnessed positive net absorption,supported by flight-to-quality and upgrading demandSubmarkets20022Q1 23Q2 23Q3 232023 YTDGreater Central-427,700-507,60010,400-224,400
8、-119,600-107,60027,100-200,100Wanchai/Causeway Bay-187,100-429,500-261,700181,300-63,70026,200-44,800-82,400Hong Kong East195,700-279,400-241,500105,400-123,30057,300-62,200-128,200Hong Kong South11,100-82,400-20,80046,90013,500-20,000-1,700-8,300Greater Tsimshatsui149,300-532,200-152,50037,400-88,8
9、00-186,700-24,500-300,000Kowloon East645,700-334,000-59,3001,500140,7006,300-37,900109,000Kowloon West3,500-130,000146,800102,400-6,90051,900-82,000-36,900Overall390,500-2,295,200-578,700250,600-248,200-172,700-225,900-646,800Note:Data as of Sept 2023Y-o-Y ComparisonQ-o-Q ComparisonSource:Cushman&Wa
10、kefield Research0.4-2.3-0.60.3-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.6-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.520022Q1 23Q2 23Q3 232023 YTDAbsorption(million sf,NFA)Greater CentralWanchai/Causeway BayHong Kong EastHong Kong SouthGreater TsimshatsuiKowloon EastKowloon WestOverallYTD ComparisonCushman&Wakefield|Q3 20
11、23 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets5AVAILABILITY RATE UP 40 BASIS POINTSMainly driven by non-core submarkets,as some sizable office space being returned to the market0510152025GreaterCentralWanchai/Causeway BayHong KongEastHong KongSouthGreaterTsimshatsuiKowloonEastKowloonWestAvailabi
12、lity(%)Q4 20 Q3 23SubmarketsQ4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Greater Central10.9%12.0%11.6%11.0%10.6%10.5%10.9%11.6%12.1%12.8%13.5%13.4%Wanchai/Causeway Bay12.9%14.4%15.5%16.3%15.5%14.4%14.4%14.4%13.6%14.3%14.0%14.5%Hong Kong East8.4%10.1%10.0%11.0%11.2%12.2%13.8%16.6%16.8
13、%18.1%17.5%18.1%Hong Kong South11.7%14.1%17.8%16.1%15.4%14.8%14.5%18.7%18.7%18.1%18.9%19.0%Greater Tsimshatsui12.0%13.6%14.5%13.4%13.5%13.0%13.4%13.4%13.1%14.0%15.9%16.1%Kowloon East16.0%17.4%18.3%16.7%16.5%16.2%16.4%22.1%24.6%23.8%23.8%24.0%Kowloon West17.5%17.2%15.2%15.1%13.6%17.1%15.0%16.5%16.8%1
14、6.9%15.7%17.7%Overall Availability*12.6%14.0%14.4%13.9%13.6%13.6%13.8%16.1%16.7%17.1%17.3%17.7%Source:Cushman&Wakefield ResearchNote:Availability includes confirmed leasing stock that is currently vacant or becoming vacant over the next 12 monthsNote:Data as of Sept 2023Cushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hon
15、g Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets6NEW LEASING TRANSACTIONS IN GREATER CENTRALProportion of PRC companies has been expanded to over one-third in 2023 YTD2022 New Leasing Deals(By NFA sf)2021 New Leasing Deals(By NFA sf)17%17%66%22%29%49%Source:The above proportion is based on count of area
16、;excluded unknown tenants in the analysis2023 YTD New Leasing Deals(By NFA sf)36%16%48%Note:YTD indicates up until Sept 2023Total leased floor area:380,700 sfTotal leased floor area:607,100 sfTotal leased floor area:709,200 sfCushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets7
17、Harbourside HQ75,300 sfOne Taikoo Place19,900 sfNEW LETTING DEMAND FROM DIVERSE INDUSTRIESTMT,consumer products,banking&finance,public sector and professional services all recorded double digit shares%Proportion of New Leasing Transactions by NFA sfOne Exchange Square14,200 sfTMTConsumer Products/Ma
18、nufacturingPublic SectorBanking&FinanceProfessional ServicesQ3 2023New Leasing TransactionsHong Kong SouthDah Sing Financial Centre15,200 sfKowloon WestTwo Pacific Place18,700 sfSource:Cushman&Wakefield ResearchManulife Place27,800 sfManulife Place21,000 sfThe Millennity-Twr 1 33,000 sfMillennium Ci
19、ty 1 9,700 sfTMT21%Consumer Products/Manufacturing18%Banking&Finance18%Public Sector13%Professional Services11%Medical/Health/Beauty8%Real Estate/Flex Space7%Others4%51%20%16%7%3%Total leased floor area:810,600 sfGreater Tsimshatsui2%1%The Quayside Twr 1&273,100 sfMillennium City 1 8,000 sfPlatform
20、TechnologiesCushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets8NEW LETTINGS IMPROVED IN Q3Representing 40%q-o-q and 21%y-o-y increase,respectively Source:Cushman&Wakefield Research000 NFA sq ft745 702 672 703 640 581 811 0500600700800900Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q
21、1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Quarterly New Lettings(by NFA sq ft)21%y-o-y40%q-o-qOffice Market Q3 Review and Outlook12345Overall net absorption dropped further south at 225,900 sf in Q3;Greater Central outperformed as the only submarket with positive net absorptionMNC occupiers are increasingly committed to
22、incorporating ESG elements when considering relocation options,whilst majority of tenants tend to opt for lease renewals for cost-saving purposeWithin Greater Central,mainland Chinese firms are becoming more active,accounting for 36%of the Q3 new lettings in the submarket(vs.17%in 2022 FY)Key Takeaw
23、aysGlobal economic uncertainties and high availability rate(17.7%)to further weigh on rental performance,we expect overall office rents to fall by-5 to-7%in 2023Q3 2023 new letting transactions reached 811k sf NFA,up 40%q-o-q;Kowloon East remained attractive to occupiers with several large-sized dea
24、ls concluded10Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsCushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets11RETAIL SALES CONTINUED TO REBOUNDJewellery&Watches and drug stores leading market recovery as tourists gradually return to the cityRetail
25、Sales(HK$Bn)Jan Aug200222023Y-o-Y Jewellery&Watches50.08 19.00 25.08 24.88 40.58 63.1%Fashion&Accessories39.48 20.29 25.65 22.99 33.72 46.7%Medicines&Cosmetics32.16 15.02 14.95 15.35 21.55 40.3%Food,Alcohol&Tobacco28.79 24.81 24.06 24.18 25.03 3.5%Supermarkets35.71 40.02 35.75 36.64 34.35
26、-6.2%Total305.09 212.87 230.15 226.70 270.52 19.3%00Jewellery&WatchesFashion&AccessoriesMedicines&CosmeticsFood,Alcohol&TobaccoSupermarketsHK$BnRetail Sales(Jan Aug,2019-2023)200222023Source:Hong Kong Census&Statistics Department;Cushman&Wakefield ResearchCushman&Wakefield|Q3 2
27、023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets12HIGH STREET RENTS CONTINUED TO PICK UP ACROSS DISTRICTSAll districts recorded mild rental growth q-o-q02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000HKD psf pm(saleable)Causeway BayCentralTsimshatsuiMongkokYuen LongTuen MunDistricts20022Q1
28、2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q-o-Q YTD 2023 FYForecastCauseway Bay$1,520$870$831$764$783$805$8151.2%6.6%5 7%Tsimshatsui$1,448$944$900$851$860$872$8861.6%4.1%6 8%Central$667$384$376$366$378$392$3991.9%9.1%8 10%Mongkok$491$331$332$323$333$341$3471.9%7.4%6 8%Yuen Long$352$271$278$271$277$285$2901.8%7.1%6 8%Tuen M
29、un$263$207$211$207$211$217$2211.7%6.8%5 7%Social UnrestCOVID-19Relaxation of Inbound TravelSource:The Land Registry;Market Info;Cushman&Wakefield ResearchCushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets13VACANCY STABILISED IN MOST SUBMARKETSThe pace of recovery in Hong Kong
30、Island is faster than KowloonDistricts20022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Causeway Bay2.6%13.1%7.9%7.9%7.9%5.3%5.3%Central10.0%18.3%9.9%11.3%9.9%7.0%8.5%Tsimshatsui3.6%17.9%13.1%16.7%15.5%13.1%11.9%Mongkok12.7%23.6%14.5%12.7%10.9%10.9%10.9%0510152025Vacancy Rate(%)Causeway BayCentralTsimshatsuiMong
31、kokSocial UnrestCOVID-19Relaxation of Inbound TravelSource:The Land Registry;Market Info;Cushman&Wakefield ResearchCushman&Wakefield|Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets14F&B RENTS EDGED UP MILDLY OVER THE QUARTERF&B operators remained cautious as more local spendings are shifted
32、to the nearby GBA cities during weekends and holidaysForecast020406080520253035Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23Restaurant Receipts(HKD Billion)HKD psf pm(saleable)Chinese Restaurant(LHS)Non-Chinese Restaurants (LHS)Fast F
33、ood Shops(LHS)Bars(LHS)Other Eating&Drinking Places(LHS)Causeway Bay(RHS)Central(RHS)Tsim Sha Tsui(RHS)Mongkok(RHS)Social UnrestCOVID-19Districts20022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q-o-Q YTD 2023 FYForecastCauseway Bay$75.1$50.6$51.8$51.5$53.2$54.6$54.80.4%6.5%5 7%Central$100.3$68.1$69.9$67.9$69.5$
34、71.2$71.30.1%5.0%4 6%Tsimshatsui$82.1$55.0$56.4$56.5$58.0$59.5$59.70.4%5.6%4 6%Mongkok$65.0$44.3$45.5$45.6$46.9$48.2$48.40.4%6.0%5 7%Source:The Land Registry;Market Info;Cushman&Wakefield ResearchRelaxation of Inbound Travel15Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsN
35、ET OUTFLOW TRAFFIC HAS BEEN RECORDED SINCE BORDER REOPENINGExpected to continue for the coming 6 monthsSource:Cushman&Wakefield Research,Immigration DepartmentVisitor Arrivals vs Hong Kong Resident Departures(2023,Monthly)497,905 1,461,094 2,452,921 2,892,436 2,828,573 2,748,697 3,588,909 4,077,984
36、2,771,982 1,657,6153,607,8725,326,4366,357,7235,743,3426,032,1686,810,7937,161,1866,310,186-8,000,000-6,000,000-4,000,000-2,000,000-2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepNo.of Arrivals/DeparturesTotal Visitor ArrivalsHK Resident DeparturesNet Inflow/OutflowHK-Mainland border re-ope
37、ning16Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsMAINLAND F&B BRANDS ENTERING HONG KONG MARKET Taking advantage of the relatively attractive rents to open new storesFestival Walk,AIRSIDE&New Town Plaza Opening soonNew Mandarin Plaza,TsimshatsuiOpened in Q3 2023Sino Chee
38、r Plaza,Jordan Opened in Q3 2023104 Soy Street,MongkokOpened in Q1 2023New Town Plaza,Shatin Opening soonNorth Point,Wanchai&Sai Wan Since Q1 2023World Trade Centre,Causeway Bay Opened in Q3 2023The Wai,Tai Wai Opening soonMongkok,Shum Shui Po&Tsuen Wan Since Q2 2023World Trade Centre,Causeway Bay O
39、pened in Q1 2023Mongkok,Causeway Bay,Central&Ngau Tau Kok Since Q2 2023Specialty-restaurant chainsBeverage chains17Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsCUSTOMERS ARE LOOKING FOR MORE“RETAILTAINMENT”ELEMENTSExperiential retail is essential to cater for the changing
40、 shoppers demandRetail Market Review and OutlookKey Takeaways1Competition from nearby mainland cities in the GBA has diverted away some local spendings,hindering the pace of recovery in the Hong Kong retail market2Mall operators should improve tenant mix and experiential retail elements to attract f
41、ootfall,while the government could line up more major sports and recreational events to keep up Hong Kongs tourist market competitiveness3Jewelry&watch brands further expanded on main streets in Q3,with the support of growing demand4Q3 high street rents recorded low single-digit q-o-q growth across
42、districts.We expect full-year high street rent to increase 5-10%in 20235Mainland Chinese F&B brands are getting more active in expanding into Hong Kong19Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Markets20Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential Market
43、sRESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS CONTINUED TO COOL DOWNMarket sentiment has been dampened by the yet-to-peak interest rates and slower-than-expected economic recoverySource:Land Registry;Cushman&Wakefield ResearchMonth2003200020202120222023Y-o-YChangeJan6,1874,4886,4122,0453,2865,2704
44、,5432,7624,5624,2753,051-29%Feb3,6493,1596,0271,8074,0795,4824,0893,5726,1252,9124,28247%Mar4,5503,1414,3292,3695,8564,2635,2313,8707,4442,8696,690133%Apr5,3734,7814,5494,4947,0606,6467,8224,1027,3253,8974,58318%May4,1305,2705,1684,5865,7325,5228,2085,9847,0846,2024,003-35%Jun4,8335,9605,7764,6206,1
45、006,7134,6276,9877,5914,8263,613-25%Jul6,5257,7925,3934,2433,5156,0914,8056,1337,5793,6713,065-17%Aug6,5596,2123,8965,8214,0144,8224,0844,3585,5464,1373,247-22%Sep5,6325,9584,2637,8265,6293,5003,4475,0245,8443,8752,862-26%Oct9,3606,1893,3006,6015,2894,2434,0014,9514,6433,148-Nov7,8114,8482,8266,7395
46、,6942,6355,7566,0705,4092,731-Dec6,9676,0094,0433,5505,3372,0603,1846,0675,1452,507-Total71,57663,80755,98254,70161,59157,24759,79759,88074,29745,050-Jan-Sep47,43846,76145,81337,81145,27148,30946,85642,79259,10036,66435,396-3%Q3 23 vs.Q2 23(-25%QoQ)Q3 23 vs.Q3 22(-21%YoY)21Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023
47、Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsTOTAL RESIDENTIAL S&PS HISTORICAL COMPARISONlLess than 9,200 cases in Q3,a quarterly decrease of 25%,or an annual drop of 21%10,788 16,768 6,221 13,221 15,015 13,863 10,204 18,131 10,056 14,023 16,011 15,493 13,700 18,892 18,881 20,657 17,073 22,000 14,
48、925 12,199 19,962 13,552 17,890 13,158 14,413 12,336 15,515 18,969 11,683 9,174 17,046 10,169 16,890 16,320 8,938 12,941 17,088 15,197 8,386 -10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000200020202120222023YEARQ1Q2Q3Q4No.of Residential S&PsYearNote:S&Ps:Sales&Purchase
49、AgreementsSource:Land Registry;Cushman&Wakefield Research22Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsBOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SALES DROPPED IN Q3Developers to sell their inventories with competitive pricing strategy9641,89801,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000Primary
50、SalesSecondary SalesNov 2016AVDBreakdown of Residential Sales(%)2022Jan-Sep 2023Primary Sales23%25%Secondary Sales77%75%Notes:AVD is short for Ad Valorem Stamp DutyJun 2019 Social UnrestJan 2020 COVID-19Source:Land Registry;Cushman&Wakefield ResearchNo.of Residential S&Ps23Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023
51、Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsHOME PRICES DROPPED FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH BY 4.2%Residential rents exhibited a more stable trend whilst price volatility emergedSource:Rating&Valuation Department;Cushman&Wakefield Research0500300350400450Rental IndexPrice IndexAug
52、 23*339.2Dec 22334.7*Preliminary figure from Rating&Valuation Department as of Aug 2023Price Peak(Sep 21)398.1Overall MarketAll classes(RVD)Price Changes(%)Aug 2023*YTD+1.3%Y-o-Y-7.9%From Sep 21(Historical Peak)-14.8%Index(Jan 1999=100)Rental Peak(Aug 19)200.1Aug 23*185.4Rental Changes(%)Aug 2023*YT
53、D+5.6%Y-o-Y+3.3%From Aug 19(Historical Peak)-7.3%24Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsMASS MARKET RESIDENTIAL PRICEThe price at City One Shatin(Phase 4)continued to slide,down 14.1%q-o-q05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Source:Cushman&WakefieldPeak(Sep 21)19,800Dec
54、2214,000City One ShatinMass Market(2-bedroom)Residential Price Changes(%)Sep 2023Q-o-Q-14.1%YTD0.0%Y-o-Y-18.1%From Sep-21(Historical Peak)-29.3%HKD psf(Saleable)Sep 2314,00025Cushman&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsMIDDLE MARKET RESIDENTIAL PRICEPrices at Taikoo Shin
55、g(Kao Shan Terrace)dropped further with-8.8%q-o-qSource:Cushman&Wakefield05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Residential Price Changes(%)Sep 2023Q-o-Q-8.8%YTD-2.5%Y-o-Y-16.6%From Jun-19(Historical Peak)-31.0%Taikoo ShingMiddle Market($8-20M)HKD psf(Saleable)Peak(Jun 19)22,600Sep 2315,600Dec 2216,00026Cush
56、man&Wakefield Q3 2023 Hong Kong Office,Retail and Residential MarketsLUXURY MARKET RESIDENTIAL PRICEPrices at Residence Bel-Air(Phase 2)dropped 4.8%q-o-qHKD psf(Saleable)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Peak(Jun 19)30,900Sep 2326,000Residential Price Changes(%)Sep 2023Q-o-Q-4.8%YTD-0.8%Y-o-
57、Y-7.1%From Jun-19(Historical Peak)-15.9%Residence Bel-AirLuxury Market($20M)Dec 2226,200Source:Cushman&Wakefield12345Number of residential S&Ps in Q3 2023 dropped 25%q-o-q and 21%y-o-y to less than 9,200 units We expect more price volatility in Q4 amid rising interest rate,home prices are forecasted
58、 to adjust 0-5%in 2023According to our C&W residential price index,small-to-medium home price dropped by around 5%q-o-q in Q3With interest rates showing no signs of falling,Hong Kong residential market continued to slow in Q3Full-year residential transaction volume is expected to drop 0-5%annually t
59、o circa 43,000 to 45,000 units Residential Market Review&OutlookKey TakeawaysLOREM IPSUM DOLOR SIT AMET CONSECTETURJOHN DOEQ&A SessionJohn SiuManaging DirectorHead of Project and Occupier Services,Hong KongRosanna TangExecutive DirectorHead of Research,Hong KongEdgar LaiSenior DirectorValuation and Advisory Services,Hong KongKevin LamExecutive DirectorHead of Retail Services,Hong Kong