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1、 Oliver Wyman2Delivery Decarbonization PathwayThis report is the result of an independent study led by Oliver Wyman.It was conducted over a 12-week period and commissioned by Amazon.The methodology has been defined by Oliver Wyman independently of Amazon.The analysis,conclusions,and projections are
2、those of Oliver Wyman only.The analysis is based on official statistics up to 2021(unless stated otherwise)and publicly available information.The study does not use any private information from Amazon or other retailers or transport operators.Consumer behavior data is based on proprietary surveys co
3、nducted by Oliver Wyman in 2022 across Europe(France,Germany,United Kingdom,Sweden,Italy,Spain).QUALIFICATIONS,ASSUMPTIONS,AND LIMITING CONDITIONSOliver Wyman shall not have any liability to any third party in respect of this report or any actions taken,or decisions made as a consequence of the resu
4、lts,advice or recommendations set forth herein.The opinions expressed herein are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the date hereof.Information furnished by others,upon which all or portions of this report are based,is believed to be reliable but has not been verified.No warranty is
5、given as to the accuracy of such information.Public information and industry and statistical data are from sources Oliver Wyman deems to be reliable;however,Oliver Wyman makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and has accepted the information without further ve
6、rification.No responsibility is taken for changes in market conditions or laws,or regulations and no obligation is assumed to revise this report to reflect changes,events or conditions,which occur subsequent to the date hereof.Oliver Wyman3Delivery Decarbonization PathwayCONTENTS1.Introduction 52.Cu
7、stomer standpoint:Faster delivery,more delivery options,more attention to the environment 72.1.Consumer expectations and behavior 82.2.Evolution of delivery options 133.Study methodology 163.1.Study objectives 173.2.Geographic scope 183.3.End-to-end delivery scope 183.4.Delivery models 203.5.Emissio
8、n types 233.6.Modelling approach 244.Emissions from delivery models:Scale and country energy mix matter more than speed 264.1.Emissions in the base-case configuration 274.2.Emissions from delivery models 284.3.Delivery emissions by country and city size 424.4.Sensitivity to other factors 504.5.Scali
9、ng impact on delivery models 58 Oliver Wyman4Delivery Decarbonization Pathway5.Decarbonization pathway:30%reduction by 2030,then 60%reduction at full potential with known technologies 655.1.Decarbonization estimation methodology 665.2.Parcel-delivery decarbonization roadmap 695.3.Step 1:Best practic
10、es 2023 745.4.Step 2:Mid-term decarbonization 2030 milestone 775.5.Step 3:Long-term full decarbonization 825.6.Zoom-in:decarbonization potential by delivery model 845.7.Zoom-in:decarbonization potential by country 865.8.Conclusion 90Appendix A:Glossary 91Appendix B:Methodology 92Emissions drivers 92
11、Bridge with previous study 95Appendix C:Country-specific data 97France 97United Kingdom 100Germany 103Sweden 106Spain 109Italy 112 Oliver Wyman5Delivery Decarbonization Pathway1.INTRODUCTION1 Oliver Wyman,“Is E-commerce Good for Europe?”The breadth of products offered through e-commerce has expanded
12、,and more categories are now available online,from a greater number of vendors around the globe.Online and offline shopping are more closely integrated,and secondhand goods are increasingly popular.More delivery options are available,and related services such as tracking and rerouting are becoming s
13、tandard.This growing diversity offers customers more opportunity and choice to find what they want.But it also makes it increasingly difficult for both shoppers and retailers to understand the environmental impact of online purchases and,more specifically,of delivery.Our previous study1 of e-commerc
14、e,published in 2021,highlighted that in Europe,the environmental impact of e-commerce is positive:Online shopping in Europe generates an average of between 1.5 and 2.9 times less greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions than offline shopping.The study also demonstrated that emissions from both types of shopping
15、 vary significantly by product type,country,and more importantly customers locations and purchasing behavior.The objective of this study is to go to a further level of granularity and focus on delivery emissions to compare the emissions from various delivery models,to identify the main drivers,and t
16、o determine how delivery-related emissions of CO2 equivalent(CO2e)can be further reduced.Does home delivery generate higher emissions than pickup-point delivery(PUDO:pick up,drop off)?Does faster delivery result in higher emissions?How can the best technologies available today help reduce delivery e
17、missions?What would it take to reach a 30%reduction in emissions per parcel by 2030 compared to the 2019 level?Several major parcel operators have committed to at least matching the EU Green Deal target of being climate-neutral by 2050.Among them,the sustainability leaders are aiming to reach net ze
18、ro by 2040,10 years earlier.Most initiatives address the entire value chain,encompassing renewable energy sourcing and production,carbon-neutral buildings,carbon-neutral packaging,and zero-emissions transport and complementing these measures with carbon offsetting.Oliver Wyman6Delivery Decarbonizati
19、on PathwayTo substantially reduce delivery-related emissions,resources and efforts will need to be focused on the levers with the greatest impact,and multiple complex solutions will have to be navigated.This calls for a comprehensive assessment of the emissions generated by todays delivery modes and
20、 an understanding of possible trajectories to decarbonize these modes.This new study focuses on six countries,which together account for over 60%of European online sales:France,Germany,Italy,Spain,Sweden,and the United Kingdom.It is based on an analysis of official statistics,our proprietary CO2e im
21、pact model,data made public by delivery operators and confirmed through interviews,and consumer surveys conducted in 2022.Oliver Wyman7Delivery Decarbonization Pathway2.CUSTOMER STANDPOINT:FASTER DELIVERY,MORE DELIVERY OPTIONS,MORE ATTENTION TO THE ENVIRONMENT Oliver Wyman8Delivery Decarbonization P
22、athway2.1.CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORHome delivery remains the preferred option to receive an article purchased online:More than 60%of e-shoppers say they favor it.Home delivery remains the most favored option for receiving an item purchased online,preferred by 60%of younger customers(18 to 2
23、4 years old),70-75%of customers between 25 and 64 years old,and up to 76%of those over 65.2 The COVID-19 pandemic helped to establish either fully remote or hybrid remote-onsite working patterns for part of the population,making it convenient for them to receive articles at home.However,out-of-home
24、delivery options are spreading rapidly.They bring more flexibility than home delivery and are usually cheaper up to 50%.Out-of-home delivery includes collecting goods from a retail store,from a partner store,and from a locker.The acceleration of customer-to-customer(C2C)marketplaces over the past tw
25、o years has helped to increase share for this option.Out-of-home delivery is particularly well developed in the Nordics:A pickup-point delivery option is offered by 73%of e-stores in Northern Europe vs just 36%of e-stores in Southern Europe.3 Overall,the number of lockers and pickup points in Europe
26、 increased by 36%from 2020 to 2021.4Fast delivery(up to two days)is an important decision factor for 45%of e-shoppers,especially very frequent buyers(72%).Next-day delivery is offered by 70%of the largest European e-stores.A survey conducted by Oliver Wyman in 2022 confirms the importance of deliver
27、y speed:45%of European e-shoppers consider speed as critical,very important,or important(see Exhibit 1).2 Retail Economics x MetaPack,“Ecommerce Delivery Benchmark Report 2022”3 Ecommerce Europe,“2021 European E-commerce Report”4“Out of Home Delivery in Europe 2022,”Last Mile Experts Oliver Wyman9De
28、livery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 1:Importance of delivery speed“How important is speed of delivery to you in your purchasing decision?To order the product,it must be delivered:”Six countries average9%Very frequent buyerFrequent buyerOpportunistic buyerLarge cityAverage sized cityRural cityFranc
29、eUnited KingdomGermanyItaly Critical:On same dayVery Important:The next day12%13%27%23%28%33%18%10%27%14%32%29%31%20%10%9%24%5%21%27%23%Sweden8%18%34%32%Spain 28%14%26%19%13%21%26%23%19%11%8%10%26%22%34%34%28%22%11%6%25%24%23%15%13%24%7%13%26%31%38%19%7%34%33%15%4%4%Important:Within 2 daysNeutral:Wi
30、thin 3 to 4 daysNot important:I favor price over speed8%Source:Oliver Wyman e-shopper survey October 2022 6,204 responses55 Online shopping frequency by consumer category:Very frequent:=once/week.Frequent.=1 time/month.Opportunistic:1 time/month.Same-or next-day delivery is a must for 22%of e-shoppe
31、rs,and 9%say same-day delivery is critical.However,price is more important than speed for 27%of shoppers.People who often make e-purchases value speed:72%of very frequent buyers and 52%of frequent buyers say it is an important factor(at least within two days for delivery)in their purchasing decision
32、s.But only 30%of opportunistic buyers think speed is important,and 32%of opportunistic buyers favor price over speed.Just 10%of very frequent and 14%of frequent e-shoppers favor price over speed.Oliver Wyman10Delivery Decarbonization PathwayCustomers living in big cities consider delivery speed more
33、 important than those in rural areas(51%compared to 39%).However,34%of people in rural areas do not consider delivery speed important and rather value price,compared with 25%for customers in big cities.French and German customers are broadly aligned with the European average.UK and Italian e-shopper
34、s value delivery speed more than the European average:53%in both countries rate it as between critical and important,compared to the average of 45%.Swedish buyers place more importance on price than the European average:32%of Swedes say it is more important than speed,while the European average is 2
35、7%.Furthermore,Swedish buyers do not value speed as much as the average:34%rated it as between critical and important,compared to the European average of 45%.From a retailers point of view,speed is reported to be a strong loyalty and conversion driver.In most mature e-commerce countries in Western E
36、urope(France,the United Kingdom,Benelux,and Germany),the share of e-stores that offer next-day delivery has risen to 45%,which compares with an average 32%in the EU27.6 Next-day delivery is offered by 70%of the largest e-stores(those with more than 200 million visits a year).Around 30%of e-shoppers
37、say they consider the environmental impact of their purchases,either systematically or in most cases,and 87%of all e-shoppers are keen to change their habits if this can reduce their environmental impact.Their preferred actions are,in order:grouping orders(26%),favoring national shipment(16%),walkin
38、g to a PUDO location(16%),and choosing an environmentally friendly merchant(16%).Last of all,13%would favor a delayed delivery if it could reduce delivery emissions.6“2021 European E-commerce Report,”Ecommerce Europe Oliver Wyman11Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 2:Environmental consideration
39、s when shopping online“Do you consider the environmental impact of your purchase when shopping online?”14%17%15%15%24%15%Very frequent buyer14%18%14%11%27%17%Frequent buyer12%18%18%11%26%14%Opportunistic buyer13%19%16%17%22%13%Large city15%17%14%14%25%14%14%16%16%15%24%15%Rural city12%17%15%18%22%15
40、%Environmentally considerateEnvironmentally neutralSystematicallyIn most casesOccassionalyRarelyDont consider it when purchasingDont believe there is a difference17%12%11%22%27%10%13%24%18%16%20%9%16%20%16%20%17%11%16%8%12%10%28%26%13%16%18%15%22%17%8%20%16%11%31%14%FranceUnited KingdomGermanyItaly
41、SwedenSpain Six countries averageAverage sized citySource:Oliver Wyman e-shopper survey October 2022 5,264 respondentsOn average,31%of buyers systematically or in most cases consider the impact of their online purchases on the environment.Very frequent e-shoppers pay comparable attention to the envi
42、ronmental impact of their purchases(32%consider the environment)as do opportunistic shoppers(32%consider the environment).E-shoppers consider the environment slightly more in France(37%of respondents)and Germany(36%).The lowest shares of e-shoppers that consider the environment are in the UK(28%)and
43、 Spain(24%).The figures do not appear to reflect any specific correlation with the maturity of e-commerce in these countries.Online customers level of environmental awareness seems to have increased in recent years.In France,for example,30%of e-shopper respondents to Oliver Wymans 2019 survey said t
44、hat they considered the environment,compared to 37%responding this way in the 2022 survey.Oliver Wyman12Delivery Decarbonization PathwayWhen asked about what habit they would change,if it had a positive impact on the environment,respondents answered with the following order of preferences:grouping o
45、rders(26%),favoring local shipments(16%),buying from merchants or websites showing clear sustainability-related actions(16%),and walking to a pickup delivery point(16%).Only 13%would favor delayed delivery if it helped protect the environment.Only a minority of customers(13%on average)would not chan
46、ge their habits.Grouping orders means that a consumer decides to place two or more orders together.For example,instead of placing one order at the beginning of the week and another at the end,they might place them both at the end.Accepting delays means that a consumer orders an item and chooses a sl
47、ower delivery option for example,delivery in two or more days instead of one-to-two days.French(21%),UK(20%),and German(19%)customers would favor local shipments to reduce their environmental impact,compared with between 10%and 16%for the other three countries.Italian(17%),Spanish(19%),and Swedish(1
48、9%)customers would generally look for environmentally friendly merchants,compared with 11%to 15%for the other countries.The share of respondents who would accept delays to reduce the impact of their order is significantly higher in Germany(25%)than the European average(13%)this is possibly explained
49、 by the predominance of next-day delivery in the country.Exhibit 3:Actions envisaged by e-shoppers to reduce environmental impact of their purchase,by geography“What habit would you accept to change to reduce the environmental impact of your online purchase?”Group orderLocal shipmentsEnvironmentally
50、 friendly merchantWalk to pickupAccept DelaysNoneAverage26%16%16%16%13%13%27%10%17%22%11%13%24%21%14%17%14%9%22%19%11%10%25%13%32%10%19%16%10%13%21%16%19%17%12%15%29%20%15%13%7%15%Source:Oliver Wyman e-shopper surveys 2022 4,818 respondents Oliver Wyman13Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 4:Act
51、ions envisaged by e-shoppers to reduce environmental impact of their purchase,by consumer category“What habit would you accept to change to reduce the environmental impact of your online purchase?”Very frequent26%16%16%15%13%14%Frequent25%16%17%17%13%13%Opportunistic21%17%16%16%12%18%Group orderLoca
52、l shipmentsEnvironmentally friendly merchantWalk to pickupAccept DelaysNoneSource:Oliver Wyman e-shopper surveys 2022 4,818 respondentsVery frequent(26%)and frequent(25%)buyers prefer to group their orders more than do opportunistic e-shoppers(21%).Comparable shares of very frequent(14%)and frequent
53、(13%)shoppers are not inclined to change their purchasing habits.Opportunistic buyers(18%)are less open to altering their habits to reduce their environmental impact.Overall,the actions most favored by e-shoppers seem to be those that are most effective in reducing GHG emissions,as demonstrated in t
54、he next section of this report.2.2.EVOLUTION OF DELIVERY OPTIONSOn average,more than 60%of e-shoppers say they favor home delivery.Home delivery accounts for more than 80%of parcel deliveries in five of the six countries studied.Home delivery is the most common model,with a share of volumes ranging
55、from 80%out of total e-commerce parcel deliveries in France to 90%in Spain.Sweden is the exception,as out of home delivery account for up to 60%of deliveries.Delivery lead time shows more variation across studies countries.Countries with the highest e-commerce penetration also show the highest share
56、 of deliveries in less than two days.Oliver Wyman14Delivery Decarbonization PathwayIn Germany and in the UK,fast delivery(in between 24 hours and 48 hours)is the predominant industry offer.In France,the standard delivery lead time is two days or more(officially for 50%of parcels in transport volumes
57、).Delivery in less than two days accounts for about 40%to 45%of the total,when including express(less than 24-hour)and deferred(less than 48-hour)delivery and standard delivery that actually arrives in less than 48 hours.Fast e-commerce parcel deliveries(less than 48-hour)have doubled over five year
58、s as a share of the total,from about 15%to some 30%.In Spain and Italy,standard delivery times are mostly a minimum of two days.Next-day delivery accounts for around 10%to 15%and is mostly available in large urban areas.The differences in delivery standards among countries reflect the mix of transpo
59、rt operators service levels addressing multiple e-commerce operators.They are also related to country geographical specificities.Greater distances imply longer travel times and make next-day delivery harder.Oliver Wyman15Delivery Decarbonization Pathway Oliver Wyman16Delivery Decarbonization Pathway
60、3.STUDY METHODOLOGY Oliver Wyman17Delivery Decarbonization Pathway3.1.STUDY OBJECTIVESThis study has been conducted independently of Amazon.The analysis,conclusions,and projections are those of Oliver Wyman only.This study assesses the greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions of various e-commerce delivery opti
61、ons across countries in Europe.Greenhouse gases include CO2,CH4,N2O,CF4,CHF3,and SF6.Emissions are measured as CO2 equivalent,abbreviated as CO2e.CO2e indicates the number of metric tons of CO2 emissions with the same global warming potential as one metric ton of another greenhouse gas(such as CH4 o
62、r N2O).Other pollution externalities,such as noise and emissions of particulate matter,are not considered.The study analyzes GHG emissions for a 1 kg parcel7 delivered by 11 different models.Emissions are calculated for the journey from factory to final destination,and they exclude production of the
63、 parcel content.Four types of emission drivers(transport,building,packaging,and IT)are estimated for six European countries(France,UK,Germany,Italy,Spain,and Sweden).For each country,two cities of different scale are analyzed,to evaluate the main differences in emissions for large and average-size c
64、ities.CO2e per delivery model is first evaluated using current levels of building emissions and the emissions levels of the most common diesel vehicles.As a second step,decarbonization solutions are considered,such as alternatives to diesel and low-emissions buildings.We then consider the potential
65、impact of delivery models,following the example of operators leading the deployment of these solutions in 2022.And,in a what-if scenario,we consider the potential impact of decarbonization solutions likely to be available by 2030.This is based on the ambitions officially communicated by major delive
66、ry operators.The approach is explained in greater detail in the following sections.7 Simplifiedparcelweightwithintheaveragee-commerceparcelrangeof1to2kgper parcel Oliver Wyman18Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 5:Study frameworkITScenarioCountryCityDeliverymodelEmissiontypeBase configuration Q
67、uick commerce,Ship fromstoreNominal Case(Most observed case inEurope)Large city(e.g.,Paris,London,Munich)Average city(e.g.,Essen,Zaragoza,Padua)Best practices 2023Mid-term decarbonization2030 milestoneLong-term full decarbonizationTransportBuildingPackagingInternational delivery by air,European cros
68、s-border by roadNational Standard,National NextDay,Suburban Distribution Center,National Standard,MicrostationPUDO,LockerSource:Oliver Wyman analysis3.2.GEOGRAPHIC SCOPEThe study looks at six Western European countries(France,the United Kingdom,Germany,Sweden,Spain,and Italy),which account for 60%or
69、 more of Europes total e-commerce revenues.The countries differ in many respects that make them useful for understanding the evolution of e-commerce delivery as e-commerce penetration grows.Besides different average delivery speeds and the home versus out-of-home split discussed in the previous sect
70、ion,these countries display varying degrees of e-commerce maturity.In 2021,e-commerce ranged from 9%of total retail sales in Italy to 27%in the UK.In addition,geographical constraints and the countries energy mixes also have a large impact.Two cities of different sizes were selected for each country
71、 to capture the differences in scale,last mile configuration,and delivery model for large and average-sized cities in that country.Large cities(such as Paris,London,Munich,Stockholm,Barcelona,and Milan)usually have more than one million inhabitants.The average-sized cities were selected to be repres
72、entative of the majority of a countrys cities.As far as possible,cities were chosen that are outside the area of influence of a larger city or a major national logistics hub.These cities include Padua in Italy and Bristol in the UK,and their populations range from 100,000 to 700,000,depending on the
73、 countrys demographics.Rural towns and villages(with fewer than 20,000 inhabitants)were not considered within the scope of the study.Oliver Wyman19Delivery Decarbonization Pathway3.3.END-TO-END DELIVERY SCOPEThe study aims to estimate the end-to-end emissions generated by the delivery of one parcel
74、from the manufacturers warehouse to the final destination.It outlines assumptions based on typical delivery scenarios.For cases including an out-of-home delivery location,the consumer pickup segment is also included in the analysis.A parcels journey can be divided into three macro-steps.These do not
75、 include additional steps that may be covered by a parcel in the case of a return or a missed first attempt at delivery.Cases such as these are discussed in the section on sensitivity.The actual steps covered by a parcel differ according to the delivery model and are detailed in the following sectio
76、n.Sourcing from vendorThe finished item is transported by sea from the manufacturers warehouse to the vendors,after which it travels by road(or by air)to a retailer distribution center.The manufacturers warehouse is sometimes located in Asia,in which case,the finished product travels by ship to a Eu
77、ropean harbor or by air to a European airport.The harbor/airport-to-vendor warehouse step is covered by road.The final connection to the retailer distribution center is also covered by road.LinehaulThe linehaul segment usually covers the journey from the retailer distribution center to a station clo
78、se to the destination city.For some delivery models,the closest linehaul facility to the customer may be in a city center.Linehaul intermediate steps vary by delivery model(see following section).In the traditional configuration,the parcel is transported from the distribution center to one or two so
79、rting centers(hubs)and then to the station.Last mileMost frequently,the parcel departs for the last part of its journey from a station outside the city.The last mile is generally structured as a combination of an approaching distance,to reach a delivery area in the city,and a delivery milk run.If th
80、e departure for the last mile is already within the city,the approaching distance may be negligible.For each journey,the approaching distance will be covered twice:from the station to the city center and back again,so that the vehicle can prepare for another trip(not necessarily on the same day).The
81、 milk run is a multi-stop trip to deliver parcels to several delivery points.In this study,the milk run distance is modeled through two parameters,which may vary according to delivery model and city:the number of stops per journey and the distance between stops.Oliver Wyman20Delivery Decarbonization
82、 PathwayExhibit 6:The three macro-steps of deliveryExplanatory flowSourcing from vendorLinehaulLast mileVendorwarehouseManufacturerwarehouse(out-of-scope)RetailerdistributioncenterHubHubConsumerStationSea TransportSemi-trailer 40 TVanSource:Oliver Wyman Analysis3.4.DELIVERY MODELSThe study models GH
83、G emissions for the major delivery models used by European operators in order to identify the major drivers of CO2e emissions from e-commerce delivery.These models are mainly differentiated by delivery speed,product storage location at the time of the order,and last mile configuration.Standard posta
84、l services are compared to international models,express courier services,suburban distribution center models,store-based models,out-of-home delivery models,and national standard models with micro-station solutions.In practice,the various models can be mixed and sometimes share the same flow in opera
85、tor activities(especially for the last mile).For the purposes of this study,they have been analyzed as separate flows to ensure better visibility and comparison for single-delivery models.Eight delivery models are analyzed,two of which each include two service options:International delivery by air f
86、or a product from Asia:air transport from Asia in 10 days or more;delivery through postal service.It is injected into national standard flow after the air transport Europe cross-border by road for a product from Europe:cross-border road transport,delivery through postal service within three or four
87、days National standard for a product in a warehouse in the same country as the consumer at time of order:standard parcel service from regional or national storage location;delivery within two or three days(with variations by country)National next-day for a product in a warehouse in the same country
88、as the consumer at time of order:express parcel delivery service from regional or national storage location;delivery on the next day or within 24 to 48 hours Suburban distribution center for a product in a warehouse within 50 or 100 km of the consumer:postal or express-service delivery by van within
89、 one or two days of the order Oliver Wyman21Delivery Decarbonization Pathway National standard with micro-station for a product in a warehouse in the same country as the consumer at time of order:standard parcel delivery service within two or three days,via an urban micro-station or depot for delive
90、ry with a low-or zero-emission vehicle.(This is a last mile alternative to fully motorized delivery,which relies on urban micro-hubs to switch to cargo bikes for the last leg of delivery,up to a distance of 2 km.)Out-of-home for a product in a warehouse in the same country as the consumer at the tim
91、e of order,delivery within two or three days:PUDO(pickup,drop off):standard parcel delivery to an urban,out-of-home pickup-drop-off location that is part of a specialized PUDO network Locker:standard parcel delivery to an urban lockable storage box for collection by the customer Store-based for a pr
92、oduct in a proximity store in the same city as the consumer at the time of order:Ship from store:delivery from a retail store to a nearby location within one day of the order from a bike/cargo delivery service Quick commerce:delivery by bike within 30 minutes of the order from a quick commerce opera
93、torAll models use sea transport to move the parcel from the manufacturer warehouse to the vendor warehouse,apart from International delivery by air that moves the parcel via air(see Exhibit 7).Oliver Wyman22Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 7:Delivery model flow characterizationSea transportAi
94、r transportVanPrivate carSemi-trailer 40 TStraight truck 7.5 TInternational delivery by air:10 daysVendor WHRetailer DCAirport WHAirport WHSame as national standard(starting from Hub)Manufacturer WH(out-of-scope)National Standard/National Next Day/European cross-border by road:1-4 daysVendor WHRetai
95、ler DCHubHubConsumerStationManufacturer WH(out-of-scope)Suburban Distribution Center:1-2 daysVendor WHSuburban DCConsumerStationManufacturer WH(out-of-scope)National standard with microstation:2-3 days(or National Next day with microstation:1-2 days)Vendor WHRetailer DCHubHubConsumerStationMicrostat
96、ionManufacturer WH(out-of-scope)Out of home models(PUDO/Locker):2-3 daysVendor WHRetailer DCHubHubConsumerStationPUDO/LockerManufacturer WH(out-of-scope)Store-based models(quick commerce/ship from store):Few hours Same dayVendor WHRetailer DCRegional DCConsumerStore/DarkstoreManufacturer WH(out-of-s
97、cope)Source:Oliver WymanFlows at country level may vary.See Appendix for further details.Oliver Wyman23Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 8:Linehaul and last mile assumptions by delivery modelAssumptionLinehaulLast mile(km)Approaching distance(km)StopsDistance between stops(km)Parcel/stopParcel
98、/journeyInternational delivery by air9,000 km with airplane50-7015-2080-1000.2-0.41.2-1.6100-160Europe cross-border by road1,000 km with semi-trailer(40T)50-7015-2080-1000.2-0.41.2-1.6100-160National Standard300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T)50-7015-2080-1000.2-0.41.2-1.6100-160National Next Day300-4
99、00 km with semi-trailer(40T)50-7015-2080-1000.2-0.41.2-1.6100-160Suburban Distribution Center300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T)50-7015-2080-1000.2-0.41.2-1.6100-160Standard with Microstation300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T)25-50-80-1000.2-0.41.2-1.6100-160Standard PUDO300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T
100、)40-7015-2010-151.0-2.040400-600Standard Locker300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T)40-7015-2010-151.0-2.050500-750Quick commerce300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T)2-1111Ship from store300-400 km with semi-trailer(40T)2-1111Source:Oliver WymanLinehaul and last mile assumptions do not reflect averages,but
101、the range of situations observed among operators.Variables are adjusted for each country studied.It is notable that last mile distances are generally lower for the suburban model than in the national model since the suburban model consists of being closer to the customer.Oliver Wyman24Delivery Decar
102、bonization Pathway3.5.EMISSION TYPESCO2e emissions are estimated for a generic non-food product weighing 1 kilogram,such as a pair of shoes.No differentiation by product category was considered.Store emissions in the ship-from-store delivery model are based on a large store selling fashion products.
103、Estimates of darkstore(used in the quick commerce model)emissions are based on grocery store emissions.Four sources of GHG emissions were modeled to assess the environmental impact of e-commerce:TransportVehicle emissions cover the distance from the manufacturer warehouse to the last mile.Vehicle ty
104、pes and distances are differentiated by delivery model,country,and city size.This includes emissions from maritime or air transport to move the parcel from the manufacturer warehouse to the vendor warehouse.BuildingThe energy consumption of buildings is based on their number and type.This is convert
105、ed to CO2e using each countrys residual mix factor that is,the emissions from the production of energy for its power grid.The residual mix factor depends on the proportion of electricity generated from various sources,such as coal,gas,nuclear power,and renewables.PackagingThe quantity and material o
106、f packaging are converted into CO2e.Primary and secondary packaging(such as packaging used to send goods on pallets from a vendor to a warehouse)are assumed to be the same for all delivery models.Information technology(IT)Data-center and computer-network emissions are generated from online ordering.
107、They include energy used to manage inventory.These emissions are differentiated depending on a countrys residual mix factor.Emissions from vehicle production,building construction and server manufacturing are not included in the study scope.Oliver Wyman25Delivery Decarbonization Pathway3.6.MODELLING
108、 APPROACHCO2e emissions are modeled to ensure comparability among delivery models and countries.Key modeling steps are summarized in Exhibit 9.Exhibit 9:Modelling approachABCDEMapping of a parcel typical journey for each delivery option based on real life case from the main playersFlowmappingCollect
109、ion of data from official sources on main drivers of emissions differentiated per country and cityInput datacollectionAdjustments and standardizationof parametersto ensure comparability across delivery options and countryInputnormalizationConsidered a scaling potential and set of constraints of each
110、 delivery option and its impact on overall emissionsScalingDevelopment of what-if scenarios to assess potential decarbonization impact today and by 2030DecarbonizationSource:Oliver WymanA.FLOW MAPPINGThe flows of each delivery model were mapped in each of the six countries to ensure a clear understa
111、nding of steps and distances as well as of the number and types of buildings the parcel passes through up to the final delivery.Flows were mapped by examining the real flows at major logistics operators and triangulating these using official sources and actual driving distances.Further information o
112、n flow mapping is detailed in Appendix B.B.INPUT DATA COLLECTIONConsumer behavior surveyConsumer expectations and behavior were analyzed using the results of a survey conducted by Oliver Wyman in October 2022 in the six European countries(France,Germany,the UK,Sweden,Italy,and Spain).The survey anal
113、yzed in detail consumer preferences for delivery speed,environmental awareness,and preferred delivery mode.Operator InterviewsThe study used the expertise of 20 delivery operators executives active in the six European countries.No private data was used,but flow mapping and key parameters were valida
114、ted through interviews.These include data on the last mile for different delivery models and countries,such as the number of stops and distance between stops.Expert interviews were combined with internal Oliver Wyman logistics expertise to ensure comparability among countries.Oliver Wyman26Delivery
115、Decarbonization PathwayData points from official sourcesThe study refers to market studies and reports from accredited sources to stabilize three cases:base,scaling,and decarbonization.Examples of sources used include the European Commission,Euromonitor,and logistics operators(public information).C.
116、INPUT NORMALIZATIONThe input gathered through consumer surveys,expert interviews,and official data sources was normalized so that scenarios are applicable to the entire scope of the study.Normalization is applied to linehaul and last mile distances and parameters to represent average cases and to av
117、oid specificities related to real-life mapped cases.For example,where the mapped case was a city that was relatively spread out compared to other cities of similar size,distances were lowered to make the case applicable to other cities in the same size range.D.SCALINGEmissions calculations are done
118、based on the observed level of each countrys e-commerce maturity.However,the relevance of various solutions may evolve as volumes grow or as operators gain scale.The scaling section addresses the relevance of deploying the various models on a national scale.The first elements of comparison are the d
119、ifferences observed between mid-sized and large cities.The second elements of comparison are the differences between countries where a given model is at scale and those where it still has low penetration(for example,out-of-home delivery in Sweden compared to Italy).In addition,the replication of a m
120、odel at national level can have an impact beyond transportation and building usage,such as social acceptance and additional costs that have not been factored.See the Scaling section for more details.E.DECARBONIZATIONThree decarbonization scenarios were modeled using different assumptions:best practi
121、ces today,criteria to reduce emissions 30%by 2030,and full effort to reach full decarbonization.See the Decarbonization section for more details.Oliver Wyman27Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.EMISSIONS FROM DELIVERY MODELS:SCALE AND COUNTRY ENERGY MIX MATTER MORE THAN SPEED Oliver Wyman28Delivery D
122、ecarbonization PathwayTo offer customers a quick delivery lead time,retailers often need to move the goods as close as possible to the end delivery point which can be a slow,large-scale operation.For example,a next-day delivery is often executed most easily from a local warehouse,where an item has b
123、een stored for a few months after six or eight weeks of transportation by road and sea.In contrast,a parcel sent from Asia to Europe by air and delivered in 10 days might be perceived by the end consumer as lengthy,while from the operators point of view this model is the fastest.In general,a lack of
124、 scale increases delivery emissions more than faster delivery.In our discussion below,speed is defined from a consumer perspective.4.1.EMISSIONS IN THE BASE-CASE CONFIGURATIONOur analysis shows that delivering a single,1 kg parcel through a countrys most common postal system in two days or more gene
125、rates on average 1,075 gCO2e.The base configuration that is,the infrastructure and equipment on which this study is based reflects todays most common delivery organization.This involves the use of diesel-powered vehicles and conventional buildings with little or no specific low-emissions features.Co
126、nsidering a typical delivery run,the base configuration for a national standard delivery to a large European city is based on the variables that are most commonly observed in delivery-flow mapping in Europe.It is not a mathematical average as such,because the flow data collected might contain outlyi
127、ng specificities that have been normalized,and no weighting of cities has been applied.As a reference for all comparisons below,an average e-commerce parcel of 1 kg delivered through a standard postal service from a national warehouse has been used.This generates 1,075 gCO2e.In this case,transport e
128、missions account for 29%of total emissions,mainly driven by last mile emissions(17%of the total).Building emissions account for 28%of the total,mainly driven by emissions from retailer distribution centers,which generate 73%of building emissions.Packaging emissions(31%)are not differentiated across
129、delivery modes it has been assumed that differences in packaging requirements are minor.Packaging emissions have been calculated considering that,for a 1 kg parcel,packaging weights between 20%and 25%of total parcel weight.Oliver Wyman29Delivery Decarbonization PathwayFor smaller items(250 to 350 g)
130、,our previous study showed packaging emissions ranging between 10%and 30%of total emissions(for an average product),and between 15%and 40%for a fashion item.Packaging emissions include manufacturing and are considered constant in value across studied countries.The proportion of packaging emissions o
131、ut of total delivery emissions varies by item type,weight of shipped item and country of delivery.Emission contributions would be different if manufacturing were taken into account for both transportation and packaging.IT emissions contribute 11%of total emissions per parcel.Variations will be mostl
132、y reflecting countries energy mix differences.4.2.EMISSIONS FROM DELIVERY MODELSDelivery speed by itself does not drive emissions.When ranking delivery options by lead time emissions form a U-curve the fastest and slowest options have the highest emissions.Different delivery models were compared to
133、understand the key emissions drivers.The results show that the best way to minimize emissions per parcel is not to reduce delivery speed but to use the largest possible vehicles in the linehaul and maximize their load as far as possible.The second most important factor influencing emissions is the s
134、ize and location of buildings hubs,delivery stations,and pickup points.When ranking delivery options by lead time for the consumer,between ordering and delivery,emissions form a U-curve the fastest and slowest options have the highest emissions(see Exhibit 10).The slowest option(International delive
135、ry in 10 days or more)is the one with the highest emissions(6 times higher than national delivery).In large cities,deliveries within 1 to 4 days show emissions ranging between 10%(out of home,suburban distribution center,micro-station)and+15%(European by road)compared to national standard delivery.S
136、ame day options can generate up to 3-4 times more emissions than national standard.Oliver Wyman30Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 10:Base case Emissions by delivery model(gCO2e/parcel)International delivery by air1,2453,1154,0366,392Europe cross-borderby road1,075National standard1,075Nationa
137、l next day1,011Suburban distribution centerStandard PUDOStandard lockerQuick commerceShipfrom storeDelta vs National standard+360-650%+15%N/A+0-15%-5%-10%-10-+5%-10-+5%+200%+50-330%Standardwithmicrostation,9787,9851,2304,617International modelsHome delivery modelsOut-of-home modelsStore-b
138、ased modelsTransportSensitivity rangeXBuildingPackagingLead time(Days)ITNational standard level103-42-31-21-21-22-30-11,6111.National standard(2-3 days)or National next day(1-2)with microstationSource:Oliver WymanThe chart below highlights how emissions for different delivery models are driven by di
139、fferent emission types.Specifically,international delivery generates significantly higher transport emissions,at 5,607 gCO2e compared to 314 gCO2e for national standard delivery.Ship-from-store delivery generates higher building emissions,at 3,351 gCO2e compared to 304 gCO2e for national standard de
140、livery.Other delivery models are broadly aligned,and emissions by type have the same order of magnitude.Oliver Wyman31Delivery Decarbonization PathwayWhen looking only at emissions generated by transport operators(from linehaul and last mile transportation,as well as their operation of hubs,stations
141、,and micro-stations),out-of-home delivery appears to generate 50%lower emissions than national standard.This is not misleading in large cities,where most consumers walk to collect their parcels.The operation of additional buildings for a micro-station model(which reduces transport-operator emissions
142、 by 40%)seems to be more than compensated for by the reduction in transport-related emissions.Last,store-based delivery reduces transport-operator emissions by 50%but this is misleading,as the impact of the emissions related to the store itself accounts for most of the impact.Exhibit 11:Base case Tr
143、ansport versus building emissions by delivery option(gCO2e/parcel)5,65001,0002,0003,0004,000TrBuilding Internationalby airQuick Commerce EU by roadNext DaySuburban DCNational StandardPUDOLockerMicro-stationShip from Store 200250300350400450150TransportSource:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman32Delivery Decar
144、bonization Pathway Oliver Wyman33Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.2.1.INTERNATIONAL DELIVERY BY AIRInternational delivery by air in 10 days from an e-commerce warehouse in Asia to a consumer in Europe generates emissions six times higher than national standard delivery(6,392 gCO2e)due to the higher
145、 emissions generated by air transportation.However,it is the slowest model from a consumer perspective(a lead time of 10 days)and also the one with highest emissions.The linehaul covered by intercontinental air cargo results in emissions of 5,607 gCO2e,far higher than the linehaul in the national st
146、andard model,because air transportation emissions are 0.6 gCO2e per parcel per km,six times higher than those of road transport,which are 0.1 to 0.2 gCO2e per parcel per km.These linehaul emissions contribute to total emissions for international delivery 495%higher than for national standard.Buildin
147、g emissions are slightly higher than for national standard(23 gCO2e more),because of the need for additional warehouses at the departure and destination airports(35 gCO2e each).Emissions vary depending on the share of full freighter(dedicated freight aircraft)and belly freight(parcels traveling on p
148、assenger aircraft)flights.A 50-50 mix is assumed as the reference case.But,if flights are 100%full freighter,emissions per parcel decline to 4,978 gCO2e.If they are 100%belly freight,emissions rise to 7,985 gCO2e.When an item is shipped by air cargo from another European country(a 1,000 km linehaul
149、rather than an intercontinental distance),total emissions are 1,660 gCO2e.That is 54%higher than the national standard model,mostly because of transport emissions,which are 876 gCO2e.Exhibit 12:Base case Emissions for international delivery by air versus national standard(gCO2e/parcel)International
150、delivery by airNational standard3373275,6076,3921,0753373043141201207,9854,978Sensitivity rangeTransportBuildingPackagingITSource:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman34Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 13:Base case Emissions for European cross-border by road versus national standard(gCO2e/parcel)Europe c
151、ross-border by road1,245National standard43041203373141,075TransportBuildingPackagingITSource:Oliver Wyman4.2.2.EUROPEAN CROSS-BORDER BY ROADDelivery between European countries is generally carried out by road and takes one or two days longer than national standard delivery.It also genera
152、tes 1,245 gCO2e,which is 15%to 20%higher than national standard delivery,due to a longer linehaul.Delivering a parcel between European countries by road emits 16%more CO2e than national standard delivery.The total linehaul distance for the average cross-border case is in the range of 1,000 km,compar
153、ed with 350 km for national standard delivery.(Emissions for 100 km in a fully loaded heavy truck range from 10 gCO2e to 20 gCO2e per parcel,depending on the unladen factor of the return leg.)Cross-border flows between warehouses or cross-border gateways are densified,but due to lower volumes,lineha
154、ul tractions are assumed to be carried out with semi-trailers(50 cubic meters)that can hold up to 1,000 parcels.At higher volumes,which the largest retailers can achieve on the busiest connections between countries,larger vehicles can be used,and the gap between European cross-border delivery by roa
155、d and the national standard case is reduced to between 5%and 10%.Building emissions for both models are assumed to be comparable for the largest retailers,as parcels are expected to be transferred directly from one retailers warehouse to anothers.An additional stop in a building acting as a cross-bo
156、rder gateway can be considered if an express operator is managing the cross-border leg.This is most likely for the smallest retailers and adds 10 to 30 gCO2e,or 2%of the total,due to additional emissions from buildings.Oliver Wyman35Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.2.3.NATIONAL NEXT DAYAt scale,as
157、is the case today for most large urban areas,emissions for next-day delivery(from a national warehouse)can be as low as for standard delivery(more than two days)at 1,075 gCO2e.The situation is different in average-sized cities,where national next-day delivery can generate emissions between 20%and 30
158、%higher than national standard delivery,mostly because light vehicles are used for the linehaul.At scale,as is the case in most large European cities,national next-day delivery generates overall emissions comparable to national standard delivery.Parcels take the same journey in both models and use t
159、he same vehicles and buildings.The key difference is the cut-off time(the latest time cargo may be delivered to a terminal for loading on a scheduled truck),which means that next-day delivery has to work with shorter sorting-time windows.This constraint is assumed to have a limited impact on GHG emi
160、ssions but only so long as the volumes sorted are high enough to saturate the sorting center and trucks.Exhibit 14:Base case Emissions for national next day versus national standard(gCO2e/parcel)1,592Sensitivity rangeNational next day(large cities)1,075National next day 30%van(average cities)1203373
161、0433469 1,2301,075TransportBuildingPackagingITNational standard1,110Source:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman36Delivery Decarbonization PathwayHowever,in some periods(for example,due to seasonal variations or in order to connect low-density regions),volumes may not be enough to fill a t
162、ruck while still respecting the cut-off time for next-day delivery.In this case,semi-trailers are replaced by smaller vehicles(rigid trucks or vans),which leads to higher emissions per parcel.Van load is set at a maximum of 300 parcels,while a semi-trailer can accommodate an average of 2,750 parcels
163、 per traction.Based on our observations,leading operators rarely report more than 10%to 15%of total linehaul flows being carried out with lighter vehicles.Assuming that 30%of linehaul flows to small and average-sized cities are covered by vans,emissions go up by 14%compared to national standard deli
164、very a rise of 155 gCO2e,bringing overall emissions to 1,230 gCO2e per parcel.The 30%share of vans in linehaul to small and average-sized cities is estimated as follows.Overall van usage in linehaul is about 20%(including all operators,not only leading ones).But almost no vans are used for large cit
165、ies(which represent on average 25%to 30%of the population of the countries in the study.In average cities(70%to 75%of the total population),vans account for up to 30%of linehaul.This configuration a 30%share of vans in linehaul has been defined as the reference case for comparison across delivery mo
166、des.However,for a small city that can only be reached by van(that is 100%vans,rather than the average share of 30%),emissions are 48%higher(1,592 gCO2e)than for national standard delivery.That is the upper bound of the graph shown above.If linehaul moves are done with a single trailer(1,500 parcels
167、per move instead of the reference 2,750),next-day delivery generates 3%higher emissions(1,110 gCO2e)than the national standard model.These differences are related to the scale of operations more than to their speed.Smaller express operators that offer 24-to 48-hour delivery will in most cases manage
168、 lower volumes than the leading incumbent.Large operators are often slower than smaller express operators in countries where next-day delivery is not standard.Flows are modeled here on the assumption that operators do not mix standard and next-day flows.However,some operators do mix these,depending
169、on their scale and positioning.When mixing flow types,next-day deliveries also benefit from the scale effect of standard deliveries.(See the Sensitivity section for further details.)The national next-day delivery case analyzed in this section focuses on the most common destinations.It excludes islan
170、ds and remote locations,for which both national standard and next-day delivery will use some air transportation.(See Sensitivity section.)Oliver Wyman37Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.2.4.SUBURBAN DISTRIBUTION CENTER MODELSuburban distribution centers within 100 km of a large city can reduce emiss
171、ions by between 5%and 10%compared to the national standard model,because they reduce the number of buildings a parcel has to pass through on its journey.Deliveries are still carried out the day after an order in this model.Exhibit 15:Base case Emissions for suburban model versus national standard(gC
172、O2e/parcel)Suburban DC1,011National standard83041203373141,075TransportBuildingPackagingITSource:Oliver WymanIn this model,parcels are injected directly into the destination sorting center or even into a delivery station for online retailers with sufficient volumes and sorting capabilitie
173、s.Delivery directly from a warehouse located near a large city the suburban distribution center configuration generates emissions 7%lower than national standard delivery,as the proximity of the distribution center enables the operator to skip a sorting hub.Moving a distribution center inside a city(
174、which is only possible in limited cases due to spatial constraints)reduces emissions even further by 22%(237 gCO2e less)compared to the national standard model.This is due to the lower number of buildings required along the chain:By avoiding sorting hubs and delivery stations,two buildings can be us
175、ed instead of five.Urban distribution centers can even enable the use of carbon-free last mile solutions,such as e-bikes and cargo bikes,which are practical for distances of up to 2 km.Oliver Wyman38Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.2.5.NATIONAL STANDARD WITH MICRO-STATIONThe use of urban micro-stat
176、ions can result in total emissions of 968 gCO2e,up to 10%below those for national standard delivery,due to a decarbonized last mile when this is covered by cargo bikes.Exhibit 16:Base case Emissions for national standard with microstation versus national standard(gCO2e/parcel)Microstation968National
177、 standard93041203373141,075TransportBuildingPackagingITSource:Oliver WymanThe incorporation of micro-stations into the national standard model can reduce emissions by 11%,or 107 gCO2e.The use of micro-stations adds emissions from operating them(17 gCO2e).But it enables the last mile to be
178、 largely and,in most cases,fully decarbonized by using cargo bikes.In this case,transport emissions fall by 40%compared with the national standard model.The micro-station model exists today as a last mile delivery model for postal and express-parcel operators.It also can be combined with a suburban
179、distribution center.In the bar chart above,it is assumed for simplicity to be part of a national standard flow.In the highest density areas,some operators manage to organize last mile dispatch in a similar way to the micro-station model but with no additional buildings.Vans approach the distribution
180、 area and transfer bags of parcels(for example,five bags each containing 20 parcels)to walking or biking delivery operators on the sidewalk.However,it might be a challenge to scale such a model outside high-density areas,due to the extra workforce required(that is,bike drivers as well as van drivers
181、).When possible,reducing the number of buildings a parcel has to pass through on its journey can decrease emissions and accelerate delivery.Oliver Wyman39Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.2.6.OUT-OF-HOME DELIVERY MODELSThe impact of out-of-home deliveries depends on city size.In large cities,emissio
182、ns are around 10%lower than for home national standard delivery.Out-of-home only generates more emissions(5%to 10%higher)than national standard in the same city,when share of consumers driving to pick up is more than 40-45%(for 2 km trip).Exhibit 17:Base case Emissions from out-of-home versus nation
183、al standard(gCO2e/parcel)Transport-excluding Consumer pick-upBuildingPackagingITTransport-Consumer pick-upPUDO(large cities)PUDO(average cities)Locker(large cities)Locker(average cities)Nationalstandard 07337337304333721,0119659821,0281,0751,060166316631,0
184、42Sensitivity rangeSource:Oliver WymanOut-of-home models generate emissions around 10%lower than the national standard model.Pickup-drop-off delivery(PUDO)reduces emissions by 10%(110 gCO2e)compared to national standard thanks to a more productive last mile,with four or five times the number of parc
185、els delivered per journey.This more than offsets the 8 gCO2e emissions generated by the PUDO itself,which come from the part of the store dedicated to PUDO services,such as temporary storage of the parcel.Locker delivery achieves similar results:9%(93 gCO2e)lower emissions than national standard del
186、ivery.The 33 gCO2e of additional emissions generated by lockers(due to their electricity consumption)are more than offset by higher last mile productivity,as five or six times as many parcels are delivered per journey.(Lockers are assumed to be indoors.Outdoor lockers may have higher emissions than
187、indoor due to their electric power needs.)Oliver Wyman40Delivery Decarbonization PathwayThe total distance of the last mile the approaching distance followed by the milk run is in line with national standard distances,in the range of 40 km to 70 km.But the distances between stops are longer(1 km or
188、2 km between convenience stores),and there are fewer stops(usually 10 to 15).The productivity of the last mile for out-of-home delivery is greater:In dense urban areas,an average of between 40 and 50 parcels are dropped per stop.That means a van can deliver a total of 400 to 600 parcels in a day,com
189、pared to 100 in the national standard model.Productivity varies greatly among operators:Some are up to twice as productive as others.Notably,operators that carry out dedicated PUDO runs are more productive than those that add PUDO as a stop on a non-specialized run.The density of the network also ha
190、s a strong impact.Large networks with many drop-off points are more convenient for customers but lead to fewer parcels being dropped per stop.An additional distance of 1 km between stops results in additional emissions of 10 gCO2e or so over the last mile.Parcels that are below average size also hel
191、p to improve last mile productivity in the out-of-home model,since a more smaller parcels can be dropped off.The impact of out-of-home delivery depends on city size:the smaller the city,the more consumers drive to pick up their parcels.In large cities,emissions from the e-shoppers trip to pick up a
192、parcel are marginal.They account for 2%(16 gCO2e)of the total emissions in the PUDO and locker models.This estimate assumes that an average of one parcel in 10(11%)in an out-of-home delivery model in a large city is collected by a private car journey just for that purpose(that is,not stopping by the
193、 pickup point on the way to another destination)and that customers walk(or use a car on the way to another destination)to collect the rest of the deliveries.It also assumes an average distance of 1 km traveled to collect the parcel.In average cities,the share of customers driving specifically to col
194、lect a parcel from a PUDO point is higher,at 20%to 30%(leading to 1,011 gCO2e per parcel for PUDO and 1,028 gCO2e per parcel for lockers)for a 2 km distance.Emissions go up to 1,060 gCO2e per parcel when the customer pickup distance is 3 km.In rural areas,the share of customers driving specifically
195、to collect a parcel increases to between 30%and 40%,generating emissions of up to 1,302 gCO2e per parcel(21%higher than national standard)with an average distance of 6 km.Oliver Wyman41Delivery Decarbonization PathwayEmissions from the PUDO building are accounted for in terms of the space parcels ta
196、ke up in a brick-and-mortar retail store.Typically,1 to 2 square meters of store space corresponds to a storage capacity of up to 80 parcels.A lockers emissions are calculated by assessing its emissions per square meter(about 170 kgCO2)based on a 2-square-meter locker,as well as its productivity(5,0
197、00 parcels per square meter per year).Emissions from manufacturing the locker are not taken into account here.(See Section 4.3 for the scaling impact.)4.2.7.STORE-BASED MODELSQuick-commerce deliveries(less than one hour)generate emissions 150%to 200%above national standard delivery because of buildi
198、ng emissions.Similarly,Ship-from-store same-day delivery generates emissions three to four times as high as national standard delivery.Exhibit 18:Base case Emissions for store-based models versus national standard model(gCO2e/parcel)4,0361,0753,1154,6171,611Quick commerceShip from storeNational Stan
199、dard2,452479337641201201203,3514Sensitivity rangeTransportBuildingPackagingITSource:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman42Delivery Decarbonization PathwayQuick commerceQuick-commerce deliveries ship goods from darkstores,which are brick-and-mortar locations closed to visitors.Darkstores allow more s
200、pace for store inventory and the opportunity to quickly and accurately fulfill orders.Orders are delivered in less than one hour.A fully dedicated picking process coupled with high inventory density enables 30%lower emissions per item than regular stores.But emissions from the darkstore(1,973 gCO2e,
201、representing 80%of the 2,452 gCO2e total of quick-commerce building emissions)are still much higher than those of a warehouse.Even assuming fully decarbonized delivery by bike and more-sustainable paper-bag packaging(64 gCO2e compared to 337 gCO2e for standard parcel packaging),emissions from quick
202、commerce are around three times higher than those in the national standard delivery model.Darkstores,as considered here,are usually located in dense urban areas on available commercial premises,such as the ground floor of a residential building.We assume a surface area of 400 square meters,though th
203、ey can be up to 800 square meters.A darkstores building efficiency and emissions can be considered to be the same as those of a conventional brick-and-mortar grocery store.But its productivity(rotation of items per square meter)is three or four times greater:The quick commerce model focuses on fast-
204、rotating items,and its pick-and-pack process targets preparation times of between two and five minutes.Exhibit 19:Darkstore productivity assumptionsSize(sqm)Average departure/h(#departure)Average parcel/departure(#parcel)Average operating hour/day(h)40010113Source:Oliver WymanShip from storeThe refe
205、rence setup assumes that 10%of the store surface is dedicated to e-commerce and that this has the same productivity as a darkstore.This percentage is reported to be the maximum e-commerce share that a retail store can cope with operationally.The most common ship-from-store delivery setup generates t
206、hree times the emissions of national standard delivery.However,there are strong variations depending on the store organization.Emissions can be 150%less or 15%more than the reference store case.Compared with national standard delivery,they can range from 50%more to four or five times as much.Oliver
207、Wyman43Delivery Decarbonization PathwayIn the reference case,ship-from-store delivery generates emissions of 4,036 gCO2e,which are 275%more than the national standard model.This high level is due to store-specific emissions(2,905 gCO2e),which are offset by only a very small amount from a partially d
208、ecarbonized last mile(which is assumed to be 50%by e-bike and 50%by motorbike).Under an alternative assumption,no store surface is dedicated to e-commerce,and staff pick items from shelves used for brick-and-mortar sales.In this case,emissions go up to 4,617 gCO2e,329%higher than those of national s
209、tandard delivery,because it is assumed that there are fewer items per square meter.However,if goods are picked and packed in the warehouse and then sent to a store before last mile delivery,emissions are then 1,611 gCO2e 50%higher than for the national standard model.That difference results from dif
210、ferences in the buildings and the last mile of delivery.But,if the parcel is collected by the consumer(that is,not delivered),then emissions are expected to converge toward those of the PUDO model.4.3.DELIVERY EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY AND CITY SIZEEmissions levels for the delivery models vary across Eur
211、ope.For national standard delivery,they range from 30%higher than the average to 40%lower.But the emissions rankings of the various models are similar within the six countries.Emissions from national standard postal delivery in big cities are relatively high in Germany(1,462 gCO2e)and Italy(1,330 gC
212、O2e),similar to the base configuration in Spain(1,130 gCO2e)and relatively low in the UK(976 gCO2e),Sweden(742 gCO2e),and France(676 gCO2e).The variations are due to differences in distances traveled,and national residual mix factors(which impact building emissions).The emissions ranking of delivery
213、 models is consistent in the six countries.The international cross-border and store-based models generate emissions between 50%and 800%higher than the national standard references.Micro-station and out-of-home deliveries generate emissions between 10%and 20%lower.Oliver Wyman44Delivery Decarbonizati
214、on PathwayExhibit 20:Emissions for selected delivery models versus national standard,by country(gCO2e/parcel,%)National standard ParisAix en ProvenceLondonBristolMunichEssenStockholmKarlstadBarcelonaZaragozaMilanPadova6768429761,1921,4621,5227421,1221,1301,0481,3301,543National Next Day(%vs.National
215、 Standard)Suburban DC(%vs.National Standard)Standard PUDO(%vs.National Standard)0%22%0%7%2%27%N/AN/A0%25%0%8%-2%-3%-6%-5%-8%-8%-1%-1%-4%-5%-10%-9%-12%-11%-8%-8%-8%-2%-28%-47%-13%-1%-5%-11%Note:As an example,for an average-sized French city,national standard delivery emissions are 842 gCO2e per parce
216、l.National next-day emissions are 22%higher than national standard(1,028 gCO2e per parcel),while suburban distribution-center emissions are 3%lower(818 gCO2e per parcel).Standard PUDO emissions are 11%lower than national standard(750 gCO2e per parcel).Source:Oliver WymanExhibit 21:Overall emissions
217、across delivery options by country(gCO2e/parcel)CityInternational delivery by airEurope cross-border by roadNational StandardNational Next DaySuburban DCStandard with MicrostationStandard PUDOStandard LockerQuick commerceShip from storeParis6,3408636766766652976Aix en Provence 6,4871,0178
218、421,,025London6,6461,,9232,699Bristol6,8581,3771,1921,2761,137-1,0991,1261,9912,750Munich6,7891,6191,4621,4981,3441,4151,3471,3844,5195,857Essen6,8521,6861,5221,9331,405-1,4931,5084,5005,819Stockholm5,56037-Karlstad5,9571,2761,129-1,-
219、Barcelona7,1131,2871,1301,1301,,3754,143Zaragoza7,0311,2041,0481,314999-1,0401,0543,3824,131Milan6,8551,6681,3301,3301,193-1,2571,2903,7235,414Padova7,0631,8781,5431,6641,404-1,3691,4213,7705,452 Source:Oliver WymanHighest emissionsLowest emissions Oliver Wyman45Delivery Decarbonization P
220、athwayIntercontinental delivery by air was modeled using an average linehaul covered by air of 9,000 km(from a manufacturers warehouse in Southeast Asia).It was then adjusted for each of the six countries for example,10,100 km to Spain and 8,200 km to Sweden.The same approach was followed for Europe
221、 cross-border by road:A reference distance of 1,000 km(from a manufacturers warehouse in Eastern Europe)was adjusted for each country.Intercontinental delivery by air(from Asia)generates the highest emissions in all six countries,an average of five to seven times the emissions of national standard d
222、elivery for large cities and four to six times for average cities.Europe cross-border by road delivery generates average emissions 10%to 30%higher than national standard delivery for large and average cities.National next-day delivery generates emissions equal to national standard for large cities.T
223、he only exception is Munich,where national next-day seems to generate emissions 2%higher due to a less efficient last mile.Last mile efficiency in Munich for national next-day delivery is reported to be up to 25%lower than for national standard(that is,25%fewer parcels are delivered per journey),dri
224、ving emissions per parcel up.This exception has not been analyzed in depth,but it might be due to the citys relatively low population density:Munich has 1.4 million inhabitants,compared to more than 2 million in Paris(7 million if considering the Greater Paris Area)and about 9 million in London.Due
225、to its lower efficiency in average-sized cities,next-day delivery generates emissions 25%to 30%higher than national standard delivery.National next-day is not considered in Sweden,since the national standard model there is already a next-day model.The suburban distribution center model generates up
226、to 10%lower emissions than the national standard in all countries.By design,the distribution center is close to the final destination,so intermediate buildings are skipped,avoiding emissions of up to 114 gCO2e.There are marginal variations among countries.Micro-station delivery mostly generates emis
227、sions 5%to 20%lower than national standard delivery in all six countries.In Sweden,emissions from the micro-station model are 22%lower because of a decarbonized last mile covered by cargo bike,which saves 161 gCO2e.(The national standard last mile appears to be 50%less productive in Sweden than in o
228、ther countries due to lower volumes.)Out-of-home delivery models generate up to 12%lower emissions than the national standard model due to higher last mile productivity an average of three or four times as many parcels delivered per journey.Variations in this figure among cities result from differen
229、t densities of pickup points in those cities relative to the last mile density of national standard delivery.Sweden has the most developed out-of-home models of the six countries:10 to 12 times the number of parcels are delivered per journey as in the national standard Oliver Wyman46Delivery Decarbo
230、nization Pathwaymodel,and out-of-home emissions are 25%to 50%lower than the national standard model(for both large and average-sized cities).In contrast,Spain has a lower penetration of PUDO(7.3 units for 10,000 inhabitants compared to 10.8 in Sweden),and only 2.5 times as many parcels are delivered
231、 per journey in an average-sized city as in the national standard model.The emissions of out-of-home models in Spain are comparable to those of the national standard model.In conclusion,when the product is stored in a warehouse located in the country of consumption at the time of the purchase,the va
232、rious delivery models(fast or standard,home or out-of-home)are relatively similar in terms of CO2e emissions(between 10%lower and 15%higher than national standard).Delivery models for which the product is abroad at the time of the purchase,or in the country of consumption but not stored in a nationa
233、l warehouse(for example,stored in a store),are less efficient from an environmental standpoint.Further details of the main differences in emissions by delivery model and by countries and cities are provided in the following sections.Despite differences in absolute values,the emissions rankings of th
234、e various models are similar within the six countries analyzed.Oliver Wyman47Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.3.1.RESULTS BY COUNTRY AND COMPARISON OF THE RESPECTIVE EMISSIONS DRIVERSThere are three main causes of emissions differences in all six countries analyzed:the residual mix factor;average l
235、inehaul distance,and average last mile distance.The emissions rankings of the delivery models are consistent in the six countries.Exhibit 22:Emissions from buildings versus transport in countries for national standard delivery(gCO2e/parcel)Slide 25GermanyNational STD 1,462National STD 1,330National
236、STD 1,130National STD 976National STD 676Delivery model(excluding International and Store-based models)National STD 7420050060070000500600BuildingTransportNote:The exhibit above shows,for example,that regardless of delivery model,Germany and Italy have structurally higher build
237、ings emissions(400 to 600 gCO2e),while buildings emissions in France and Sweden are significantly lower than in other countries(20 to 50 gCO2e).Spain has transport emissions structurally higher than those in other countries(up to 400 gCO2e),while the UKs transport emissions are slightly lower than t
238、hose in other countries(as low as 150 gCO2e).Source:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman48Delivery Decarbonization PathwayThere are three main drivers of emissions differences in all six countries analyzed:residual mix factor that is,the emissions from the production of energy for a countrys power grid which r
239、anges from 23 gCO2e/kWh to 589 gCO2e/kWh;average linehaul distance,which ranges from 160 km to 580 km;and average last mile distance,which ranges from 40 km to 90 km.Residual mix factorThe carbon efficiency of electric power sources significantly impacts building emissions.Building emissions in coun
240、tries with more-efficient energy sources(such as renewables,nuclear)are as low as a fifth of those in countries with less-efficient sources(such as fossil fuels).France and Sweden have the lowest residual mix factors,leading to building emissions of 36 gCO2e and 26 gCO2e respectively.Germany and Ita
241、ly have the least efficient mixes,leading to building emissions of 581 gCO2e and 497 gCO2e respectively.Linehaul lengthIt is not surprising that countries with longer linehaul distances generally have higher emissions.The UK has the shortest linehauls(120 km on average,generating 15 gCO2e in transpo
242、rt emissions),while Spain has the longest(560 km,generating 59 gCO2e in transport emissions)Last mile distanceCountries generally have similar last mile distances,of between 50 km and 60 km round-trip.However,some cases analyzed in Spain have a longer last mile average,around 90 km roundtrip,because
243、 stations are generally located farther away from city centers.(This is especially true for the Madrid area because of the cost of land,according to leading operators).Country-specific emissions per vehicle have been used to reflect local driving conditions and fleet age.The differences among parcel
244、 operators are expected to be minor.4.3.2.RESULTS BY CITY SIZE AND COMPARISON OF THE RESPECTIVE EMISSIONS DRIVERSNational next-day delivery generates emissions between 20%and 30%higher than national standard delivery,mostly because this model uses light vehicles for linehaul.As volumes and scale gro
245、w,linehaul transport is expected to be densified,reducing the gap.Oliver Wyman49Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 23:Emissions for selected delivery models in large cities versus national standard delivery,by country(gCO2e/parcel,%)Large city6769761,4627421,1301,3308421,1921,5221,1291,0481,543
246、Average city(%vs.large city)National Standard National Next DayStandard PUDO25%22%4%-7%16%Large city6769761,498-1,1301,3301,0281,2761,933-1,3141,664Average city(%vs.large city)52%52%31%29%16%25%Large city 5928971,3475371,3141,6647501,0991,4936021,0401,369Average city(%vs.large city)27%22%11%12%6%9%S
247、ource:Oliver WymanThe main differentiation factors for emissions at the city level are volumes,last mile productivity,and consumer pickup behavior.In average-sized cities,volumes for national next-day delivery are lower than in large cities,so lighter vehicles are used to meet the delivery promise.A
248、s a result,average-sized cities have emissions 10%to 30%higher than large cities in this model.Last mile delivery is generally less efficient in average-sized cities due to a lower density of delivery points and a lower number of parcels delivered in a single run:80,versus 110 in large cities.The la
249、st mile also is an average of 8 km longer than in a large city,and emissions are therefore 20%to 30%higher.Emissions in average-sized cities are higher,especially for delivery models covered by van,such as national standard delivery.Customers use cars to pick up 22%to 29%of e-commerce orders in aver
250、age-sized cities,but just 11%to 15%do so in large cities.The average distance to the collection point is 1 km in large and 2 km in average-sized cities.Consequently,emissions for the out-of-home model are usually 10%to 20%higher in average-sized cities.Oliver Wyman50Delivery Decarbonization Pathway
251、Oliver Wyman51Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.4.SENSITIVITY TO OTHER FACTORSSensitivity analysis shows a range of variation in emissions estimates for the base configuration of minus 15%to plus 15%for most delivery models.Notable exceptions are national next-day delivery,for which emissions can be
252、 22%lower or 51%higher depending on the share of vans used to cover linehaul;and out-of-home models,in which pickups by car can raise emissions by up to 50%.Various factors may cause GHG emissions to diverge from the base configuration.These include local conditions and differences in the performanc
253、e and organization of operators.To confirm that the base case is representative,several configurations were tested(see Exhibit 24).Exhibit 24:Sensitivity analyses overview and expected impactParameterBase ConfigurationVariation rangeImpact on overall emissionsNon factored emission driversReturns0%Re
254、turn rate assumed to range between 5-25%+1%+11%Delivery success rate100%Successful delivery at first attempt between 85-97.5%The rest assumed in two attempts+1%+4%Seasonality-Vehicle to cover linehaul depending on volumesFull semi 50%semi/50%van+5%+15%Sunday truck ban0%Sunday truck ban switching 15%
255、of linehaul to vans+0%+10%By delivery optionNational Next Day%van in linehaul70%semi/30%vanVehicle to cover linehaul depending on volumesFull semi Full van-17%+47%air in linehaul100%by roadShare of air transport out of total Next Day deliveries 5%-15%The rest assumed by road+0%+4%Out-of-HomeConsumer
256、%pick-up trip by car16-29%depending on countryCar to cover consumer pick-up 10-100%The rest assumed with low/no emissions(e.g.,public transport,walk)-10%+50%Consumer pick-up car trip purpose11-29%depending on countryTotal car trip/Specifically to collect item+0%+13%Store-based%motorbike in last mile
257、50%motorbike/50%e-bikeVehicle to cover last mile depending distanceFull motorbike/Full e-bike-12%+12%Source:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman52Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.4.1.NON-FACTORED EMISSIONS DRIVERSReturns,delivery success rate,seasonality,and Sunday truck bans are not factored into the base co
258、nfiguration,as they apply to the various delivery models to similar extents.ReturnsEmissions generated by customers returns of goods are not factored into the base configuration.It has been assumed that return rates vary according to country or category but not according to delivery model.When an it
259、em is returned,the parcel travels back to a distribution center,generating additional transport and building emissions.On average,across all categories and geographies,a return rate of 5%to 10%can be considered as representative and would lead to between 1%and 5%higher CO2e emissions in the base con
260、figuration.Exhibit 25:The impact of return rates on emissions in the six countries studied(gCO2e/parcel,%)Change to 12-coloum and change colorsNational Standard(gCO2e/parcel)6769761,4627421,1301,330Return Rate(and consequent%increase vs National Standard emissions)5%10%15%20%25%Most likely return ra
261、te for a fashion item by country as per Oliver Wyman 2020 Consumer Survey+1%+2%+2%+1%+2%+2%+2%+3%+4%+2%+3%+4%+3%+5%+7%+3%+5%+6%+4%+6%+9%+4%+7%+8%+6%+8%+11%+5%+9%+10%Source:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman53Delivery Decarbonization PathwayFor fashion items,a box of shoes is used as a reference,and the retur
262、n rate is assumed to be higher than for other categories(based on Oliver Wymans 2020 Consumer Survey).The rate is around 15%in France,Spain,and Italy,leading to increases in emissions of between 3%and 7%.In Germany,the return rate is higher,at around 20%,resulting in an increase in emissions of 9%.E
263、ven though Sweden has the highest return rate of the six countries(25%),the resulting increase in emissions is just 5%,because of the low residual mix factor,which limits the additional emissions coming from buildings used twice in the event of a return.Delivery success rateThe delivery success rate
264、 on the first attempt has been assumed to be 100%in the base configuration.However,the rate might differ by delivery model:It could be nearly 100%for out-of-home models and closer to 95%for home-delivery models.Applying these rates would only confirm the already identified advantages of out-of-home
265、models.When a first delivery attempt is missed,the parcel is returned to a station and then run through a second last mile leg for another attempt,increasing both transport and building emissions.Better forecasting and improved delivery procedures(such as systematic calls from drivers and delivery p
266、rogramming)are expected to become standard,reducing the delivery failure rate.Lowering the delivery success rate from 100%to 85%would add 1%to 5%to emissions in the base configuration,with minor differences between delivery models.Exhibit 26:The impact of delivery success rates on emissions in the s
267、ix countries studied(gCO2e/parcel,%)Change to 12-coloum and change colors6769761,4627421,1301,330+1%+0%+0%+1%+1%+0%+1%+1%+1%+2%+1%+1%+2%+1%+1%+2%+2%+1%+2%+2%+1%+3%+2%+1%+3%+2%+2%+4%+3%+2%+3%+3%+2%+5%+3%+2%Delivery success rate(and consequent%increase vs.National Standard emissions)97.5%95%92.5%90%87
268、.5%85%National Standard(gCO2e/parcel)Source:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman54Delivery Decarbonization PathwaySeasonalityThe seasonality of volumes is not directly factored into the base configuration,on the assumption that all operators and delivery models will face similar variations.During peak times,hi
269、gher volumes would lead to the use of heavier vehicles and would lower emissions per parcel.Building productivity also would improve.Sunday truck banA Sunday truck ban is not factored into the base configuration,as it is expected to apply to all operators that operate on Sundays and to all delivery
270、modes in a country.Factoring in a ban would be equivalent to switching 15%of linehaul volume to vans or rigid trucks.Restrictions apply fully in France,where they add between 10%and 15%to emissions in the large-city case;Germany,where they add between 12%and 17%;and Italy,where they add 8%to 12%.Res
271、trictions apply partially in Spain,around Madrid and Barcelona,but not in Sweden.4.4.2.SENSITIVITIES BY DELIVERY OPTIONUse of vans in linehaulIn the base configuration,linehaul emissions for next-day delivery in an average-sized city are estimated based on the assumption that 70%of deliveries are ca
272、rried out by 40-ton semi-trailer and 30%by van.This conservative assumption is based on the average share of vans in the six countries in linehaul transport for the national next-day model.Based on our observations of five of the countries under study,this share varies significantly among operators.
273、(Sweden was not tested,as the standard configuration there is already national next-day.)Non-express operators,which still offer a small share of next-day delivery,may use vans for between 5%and 10%of linehaul.Scaled express operators,with van flows focused on sub-scaled routes in average-sized citi
274、es,can use a 10%to 20%share of vans.The share of linehaul by van can go up to 100%in average-sized cities,when all routes to and from the city are sub-scale.Switching to a full-van model can increase overall emissions by up to 40%.Oliver Wyman55Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 27:National Nex
275、t Day%of vans in linehaul(gCO2e/parcel)Average cityReference case%of van(and consequent impact versus reference case emissions)CountryNational StandardNational Next Day(70 semi/30 van)Full van10 semi/90 van20 semi/80 van50 semi/50 van80 semi/20 van90 semi/10 vanFull semi1 2,750Full semi1 1,5008421,0
276、28+42%+36%+30%+12%-6%-12%-18%-14%1,1921,276+15%+13%+11%+4%-2%-4%-7%-5%1,5221,933+21%+18%+15%+6%-3%-6%-9%-7%1,0481,314+47%+40%+34%+13%-7%-14%-20%-17%1,5431,664+17%+15%+12%+5%-2%-5%-7%-5%1.Semi 40T in the analysis contain 2,750 parcels(see Methodology section).The additional“Full semi”case assumes 1,5
277、00 parcels due to lower volumes in average cities.Source:Oliver WymanAs operators or parcel volumes scale up,so that volumes to average-sized cities reach the scale of those to a large city,emissions could be reduced by 10%to 20%in a full-semi-trailer scenario.In more detail,the semi-trailer configu
278、ration used as a reference(with 2,750 parcels per move)is actually a weighted average of two possible operational setups:One is a single semi-trailer carrying up to 1,500 parcels per move;the other is two swap bodies that together carry up to 4,000 parcels per move.With a single semi-trailer per mov
279、e,overall emissions would be 5%to 15%lower than in the reference case of 70%semi-trailer and 30%van.A full double-swap-body configuration would reduce overall emissions by 1%,thanks to a 31%reduction in linehaul emissions.In conclusion,the share of vans to cover linehaul is affected by volumes and c
280、an significantly impact overall emissions.When higher volumes allow the use of a semi-trailer 40 t along the entire linehaul,emissions converge towards the national standard level(from 5%lower to 15%higher).As volumes decrease,the share of vans increases and can drive emissions up by between 20%and
281、40%(in a full-van scenario)compared to the reference case(of 70%semi-trailer 40 t and 30%van).Use of air transport in linehaulBoth national standard and national next-day deliveries may require air transport in specific cases for example,when a parcel has to be delivered to an island.These can be ma
282、rginal:For example,Corsica has less than 1%of the population of France.Or they can be substantial:The combined populations of Sicily and Sardinia are around 12%of the Italian population.Oliver Wyman56Delivery Decarbonization PathwayVolumes shipped to islands were not considered when evaluating emiss
283、ions in the base configuration.If these volumes were included,overall emissions would increase,depending on the air cargo share of total volumes,as air cargo emissions are between three and six times higher than those of road transport.Exhibit 28:Impact of increasing share of air in%compared to Nati
284、onal Next Day%of airCountryNational Next Day(gCO2e/parcel)5%10%15%676+1%+3%+4%976+0%+0%+1%1,438+0%+0%+1%1,130+1%+2%+3%1,330+0%+0%+0%Source:Oliver WymanWhen the share of flows covered by air transport is 5%,the overall increase in emissions ranges between 0%and 1%,depending on the country.When the sh
285、are increases to 15%,emissions rise by between 1%and 4%.France and Spain are the most affected countries,with 3-4%increases,because they have relatively high transport emissions compared to building emissions,as well as long linehauls.Short-haul air flows out of total next-day volumes are reported t
286、o be marginal 1%to 5%at the European level.Most air-related emissions are due to medium-and long-haul flights,in other words cross-border flows.Variation in rate of car use for out-of-home pickupThe share of order pickups carried out by car was collected from consumer surveys and used to model the b
287、ase configuration.The results varied according to the size and location of cities(see Exhibit 30).But in most cases,out-of-home delivery appears to produce comparable or lower emissions than national standard in the same average-sized city.Oliver Wyman57Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 29:Imp
288、act of trips made by car for consumer pickup(gCO2e/parcel,%)Change to 12-coloum and change colorsNational StandardCurrentPUDO8421,1921,5221,0481,543+1%+0%+0%+1%+0%10%-18%-16%-6%-4%-16%by car(car trip specifically to collect item)impactAverage CityLower emissions compared to National StandardHigher e
289、missions compared to National StandardAverage city case using 2 km tripAverage city case using 3 km trip(instead of 2 km as in reference case)National Standard threshold-15%-14%-4%-1%-15%15%-13%-12%-3%+1%-13%20%25%-10%-10%-1%+4%-12%30%-7%-7%+1%+7%-10%35%-4%-5%+3%+9%-8%40%-1%-3%+5%+12%-7%45%+1%-1%+7%
290、+15%-5%100%+33%+24%+27%+44%+12%Source:Oliver Wyman Customer survey 2022The share of pickup trips made by car(the motorization rate)for large cities is low mostly below 15%.As a consequence,emissions from out-of-home delivery models are lower than national standard delivery in most large European cit
291、ies(between 0%and 11%lower),with an average customer pickup distance of 2 km.The PUDO model still generates lower emissions than national standard delivery in France(4%lower),the UK(3%lower),and Italy(8%lower),even when applying a 3 km distance for customer pickup.The gap in Germany and Spain is sma
292、ll:respectively 3%and+1%compared to national standard in the same city(see Exhibit 29).Out-of-home purpose of consumer pickup car tripThe base configuration for out-of-home pickup analyzes cases in which customers who drive to collect their item are doing so specifically to make the pickup.It does n
293、ot include customers who are driving anyway for other purposes and happen to make a pickup on the way.In this base configuration case,the share of motorization usually ranges between 10%and 15%and leads to PUDO emissions that are 10%to 15%lower than national standard delivery(see Exhibit 30).Oliver
294、Wyman58Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 30:Changes in emissions when more types of car trip are counted(gCO2e/parcel,%)National standard City sizeLargeAverageLargeAverageLargeAverageLargeAverageLargeAverage6768429761,1921,4621,5221,1301,0481,3301,5435927508971,0991,3471,4939811,0401,2571,3696
295、288509851,1841,3841,6009971,1191,2971,492PUDO(car only to pick-up)vs.National Standardvs.National StandardPUDO(total car trip)-12%-11%-8%-8%-8%-2%-13%-1%-5%-11%-7%+1%+1%-1%-5%+5%-12%+7%-2%-3%Source:Oliver Wyman Customer survey 2022If emissions are considered for all customers who are driving on a tr
296、ip that features a pickup(and not only those driving specifically to make a pickup),the rate of motorization increases to between 25%and 45%,leading to higher emissions in all cases.Emissions from out-of-home models then become higher than home(national standard)emissions for average-sized cities in
297、 France(1%higher),Germany(5%higher),and Spain(7%higher).In conclusion,there is not much doubt about the benefits of PUDO in large cities(more than one million inhabitants)with 1.2 to 1.6 parcels per drop and a 10%to 15%motorization rate.Nor is there much doubt for average-sized cities with fewer tha
298、n 1.2 parcels per drop and a motorization rate of 20%to 30%.But for smaller cities(with fewer than 200,000 inhabitants and a motorization rate of 20%to 30%),emissions from out-of-home delivery are closer to those for national standard delivery.Ship from store impact of using a motorbike over the las
299、t mileLast mile delivery in the ship-from-store model is assumed to be carried out 50%by motorbike and 50%by e-bike in the base configuration.Depending on the type of parcel and distance from the delivery point,the last mile can be fully covered either by motorbike or e-bike.The 50-50 split in the b
300、ase case means that the resulting difference in emissions is symmetric:In the full motorbike case,emissions rise by between 3%and 12%,depending on the country;and in the full e-bike case,emissions fall by between 3%and 12%.Oliver Wyman59Delivery Decarbonization PathwayExhibit 31:Variations in emissi
301、ons with changes in the share of motorbike and e-bike use compared to reference case(gCO2e/parcel,%)Reference case%motorbike versus%e-bikeCountryShip from store(50%motorbike/50%e-bike)Full motorbike75%motorbike/25%e-bike25%motorbike/75%e-bikeFull e-bike97612%6%-6%-12%2,6996%3%-3%-6%5,8573%1%-1%-3%4,
302、1434%2%-2%-4%5,4143%1%-1%-3%Source:Oliver WymanFrance is an outlier,with 12%differences compared to the reference case.Even if its transport emissions grow or shrink in line with those of other countries(that is,an increase or decrease of 45%due to changes over the last mile),these transport emissio
303、ns are a greater proportion of total delivery emissions:30%,compared to the six-country average of 13%.This is due to the countrys significantly lower residual mix factor.(The ship-from-store model was not modeled for Sweden,as no real cases were identified.)4.5.SCALING IMPACT ON DELIVERY MODELSMost
304、 delivery models can benefit from scale.An exception is the suburban distribution center model,which is considered suitable only for large operators or large cities.Each delivery model can be scaled up for a number of reasons:when volumes grow because of additional e-commerce sales,when the solution
305、 is deployed on a larger geographical scale,or when it is used by more operators.However,the benefits of scaling are not systematic.Volumes can be high enough to saturate a solution locally(such as for a large city),but it might not make sense to replicate this solution at a national level for a lar
306、ger set of cities.The reasons can be social or technical,or they can be linked to costs or indirect effects,such as a need for extra inventory that might cause additional indirect emissions.This section addresses the potential impacts of scaling.Oliver Wyman60Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.5.1.SC
307、ALING OVERVIEWThe key conclusions on scale benefits are as follows:Next-day delivery can be deployed extensively.As volumes grow,emissions approach the same level as national standard delivery.Suburban distribution center models are only applicable to large cities(or to dense clusters of average-siz
308、ed cities)and to high-rotation products at scale.Deploying suburban distribution center models to service average-sized cities can lead to higher emissions(up to 95%)due to the need for extra inventory to service multiple distribution centers instead of one at the national level.The micro-station mo
309、del achieves marginal reductions in emissions from scaling.The model is technically only suitable for dense urban areas.Out-of-home delivery could achieve a marginal reduction in emissions by improving the network density(thereby reducing the share of consumer pickups by car).The solution is not rel
310、evant for smaller towns or rural areas(fewer than 20,000 inhabitants),because a larger share of customers there collect parcels by car.Quick commerce and ship-from-store benefit from scale but will still generate emissions two or three times as high as national standard delivery.Exhibit 32:Total emi
311、ssions by delivery model:comparison of nominal and scaled cases(gCO2e/parcel)National standardNational next day=Suburban DCStandard with microstationStandard PUDOStandard lockerQuick commerceShip from store4,0363,1152,1003,59689681,0111,0751,0751,3111,900900Scaling impactTotal emissionsDe
312、livery modelPositive impact(lower emissions at scale)Negative impact(higher emissions at scale)Nominal caseAt scaleNeutral impact(same emissions at scale)+Source:Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman61Delivery Decarbonization Pathway4.5.2.SCALING ENABLERS OR CONSTRAINTSThis section focuses on the benefits of sc
313、aling logistics operations transport and related buildings assuming that other economic or social constraints are lifted.However,although the costs of the models are not considered here as a limitation,they will be considered when comparing models,as a solution might not be viable in the long term i
314、f it is too costly.The social acceptance of various delivery solutions is also not considered here:Some models could increase local traffic,for example,which can be noisy and unpleasant even if the model generates lower emissions.Most delivery models are expected to be more expensive than the nation
315、al standard.But out-of-home delivery through PUDO and lockers seems both economically and environmentally more efficient.The suburban distribution-center model is expected to be expensive due to the cost of real estate.It also could lead to a requirement for extra inventory if the center is not righ
316、tsized for high-runner products.Models such as micro-station and quick commerce that depend on bikes and walkers might face issues of local acceptance due to the nuisance they cause.Other constraints on significant growth in scale are expected to include operational space and employee recruitment.4.
317、5.3.DETAILED SCALING ANALYSIS BY DELIVERY MODELNational next dayNext-day delivery is already at scale for routes serving large cities.What is already the case for large cities is likely to become increasingly true for smaller cities.Today,vans and small trucks are used when volumes are not high enou
318、gh for average-sized cities.No technical constraints hinder the scaling of this model,as supply chains are similar for the main destinations.The constraints on sorting-time windows to reach even the most distant destinations the next day are considered to be manageable with earlier cut-off times.The
319、 current emissions gap between express next-day and standard delivery in average-sized cities is 22%.This is expected to decrease,as standard(postal)operators adapt to parcel-only delivery.In mature markets,standard postal operators are already technically capable of delivering the next day to large
320、 cities.However,they cannot guarantee the same quality of service as dedicated next-day(express)operators,and their service is not called“next-day,”even if delivery does take place the next day in large urban areas.Mature countries such as Sweden,where 15%of total retail sales are e-commerce,are alr
321、eady in such a configuration that is,next-day is the new standard.The current gap in parcels per inhabitant between large and average-sized cities is around 30%.At scale,as average e-commerce penetration in Western Europe rises to 20%in 2026 from its current level of around 15%(that is,a rise in sal
322、es volume of at least 25%),the gap between next-day and standard delivery should be largely eroded.Oliver Wyman62Delivery Decarbonization PathwaySuburban distribution centerThe suburban distribution center model is considered to be only scalable for high-runner items(an average of 20%of total invent
323、ory)in large or conglomerate cities.When the model is expanded to national scale,other factors need to be taken into account,such as deployment constraints,economic limitations,and more importantly the need for additional inventory.The model has to factor in high real estate costs,for example,200 pe
324、r square meter per year in suburban Paris compared to less than 100 per square meter per year outside the suburban area.The model is scalable only for large logistics operators that can guarantee minimum volumes that justify the use of an urban or suburban distribution center.(For example,a retailer
325、 in Germany needs 10 to 15 fulfillment centers to serve the top 10 German cities.)Increasing the number of distribution centers from one(national)to two(one national and one urban or suburban)requires an increase of about 40%in inventory to maintain an appropriate level of safety stock.This is based
326、 on the inventory Square Root Law:9 For every additional building or layer introduced into the supply chain,safety stock needs to increase to compensate for a decline in the reliability of the supply chain in its entirety.This increased inventory causes additional emissions,because producing an item
327、 generates approximately 10 times the emissions of transporting the item along the supply chain.As a consequence,scaling the suburban model may lead to emissions that are twice as high on average.Looking forward,this model is expected to remain viable for large cities and high-runner products.In ave
328、rage-sized cities,the negative impact of extra inventory cannot be overcome,even in a scenario of full last mile decarbonization.National standard delivery with micro-stationsThe micro-station model is scalable in dense urban areas in large cities.Scaling does not make the model more efficient beyon
329、d local saturation,which is expected to lead to a 12%reduction in emissions compared to the national standard model.Even though land availability may be a constraint,a small number of micro-stations would be enough to cover the area of a large city.In Paris,for example,10 to 15 micro-stations per op
330、erator would be sufficient.Micro-stations need an extra runner on top of a driver,which raises costs.Based on empirical observations of micro-station network development,each micro-station is usually deployed to serve at least 150,000 or 200,000 inhabitants.Micro-stations sometimes face public resis
331、tance due to their impact on the urban environment and traffic.9“A Reappraisal of the Square Root Law,”International Journal of Physical Distribution&Logistics Management Oliver Wyman63Delivery Decarbonization PathwayThe manufacture of cargo bikes would increase emissions marginally(0.97 gCO2e per p
332、arcel,assuming a lifetime of 10 years).10 But non-CO2e externalities(such as particulate matter and traffic)will keep this model relevant even when most deliveries have been electrified.Out-of-home deliveryOut-of-home models are highly relevant long-term solutions for large and average-sized cities
333、but not for small,rural areas,where network density is low,and more customers must drive to pick up their parcels.Emissions at scale would be 5%to 7%lower than for national standard delivery.Locker manufacturing emissions are negligible:Assuming a lifetime of 10 years,they generate 12 gCO2e,or 1.5%of total scaled emissions for the model.The model is at scale in large cities with low motorization a