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1、Trend report 2023by VTT Business Intelligence02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousVTTs trend report 2023 featuresglobal megatrends&industry disruptingtechnologiesVTTs 2023 trend report covers some of the major development patterns of the macroenvironment,by presenting sevenglobal megatrends of today.Our
2、specialists in Business Intelligence have also picked out three areas where excitingtechnology-driven changes are now made:mobility,health and material technologies.Beside these,the report highlightsseven cross-sectoral,disruptive technologies that touch countless of industries and areas of life.The
3、 themes have been selected and scanned by going through hundreds of information sources,and by sparring and evaluating them with VTTs strategic partners Swanlake Strategy and Frost&Sullivan.VTT Technical Research Centre of FinlandEveliina JutilaKrista KovanenJarmo VuorinenSonja Martikainen02/05/2023
4、VTT beyond the obvious1Report contentsGLOBAL MEGATRENDS1Unpredictable,multi-polar world2Challenged democracy3Shifting demographics4Profound sustainability5Accelerated energy transition6Digitally enhanced economies 7New societal normsTECHNOLOGY TRENDS*Currently trending,selected impactful technologie
5、s Transformative trendsA.Mobility technologiesB.Health technologiesC.Material technologiesHighlighted disruptive technologiesA.Human-like artificial intelligenceB.Cyber security technologiesC.3D printingD.Metaverse&new realitiesE.Quantum computingF.HydrogenG.Carbon capture02/05/2023VTT beyond the ob
6、vious2Executive summary&areas for action02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious3Executive summaryVTT has systematically done trend reports for years.What has changed from the previous report?Trend report 20221 Unpredictable&Regionalised World Economy2 Unstable multi-polar world3 Confident superpower China
7、challenges USA4 Demographic changes:world growing old5 Towards sustainable world6 Digitally connected world7 Energy transition8 Time and place independent work9 Disruptive living and society10 Technological disruptionsTrend report 20231Unpredictable multi-polar world2Challenged democracy3Shifting de
8、mographics4Profound sustainability5Accelerated energy transition6Digitally enhanced economies7New societal normsNEWTransformative trends+Highlighted disruptive technologies Change from 2022 to 2023Global pandemics,inflation and geopolitical tensions emphasise that there is uncertainty at all fronts.
9、Democracy is something we continuously need to rediscover and protect.The shifts in demographics create opportunities.Health technologies added as a new section.The Zero Concept World will transform economics.Material technologies added as a new section.The peak for fossil fuels demand is in sight M
10、obility technologies added as a new section.Digital transition affects all parts of the society,the future is defined by real-time connectivity.The boundaries that define our lives are shifting radically,people increasingly live in separate realities.Highlighted areas with exciting technology-driven
11、 changes,selected cross-sectoral technology advancements.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious4Act on each of the megatrendsTrend report 20231Unpredictable multi-polar worldDecentralised global supply chains are digitally integrated:advance geopolitical positions through technology.Reshape alliances:self
12、-sufficiency and availability of critical raw materials are determining the trajectory.2Challenged democracyCreate new opportunities with digital platforms.Take into account the transfer of investments and intellectual property,the access to foreign markets,possible boycotts and protectionist domest
13、ic agendas.3Shifting demographicsUnderstand Gen Z which is bypassing as the largest market,with new values and interests:mental health,empowering work cultures,social justice,gender-fluid concepts,conscious brands,distrust beyond politics.4Profound sustainabilityGrasp the opportunities of the Zero C
14、oncept World.Be prepared for the growing complexity of sustainability:ESG-action&reporting are increasingly expected and required from all organisations.5Accelerated energy transitionInvest in future energy systems that are a combination of clean electricity and hydrogen.End-use sectors are increasi
15、ngly electrified,while cleaner(synthetic)fuels are adopted in areas where electrification is difficult.6Digitally enhanced economiesInvest in real-time connectivity:the nature of innovations is changing towards customer experience,while intangible resources become crucial for growth.7New societal no
16、rmsConsider behavioural analytics that form central part of todays business environment:technologies with long-term disruption potential emphasise both human and planetary-impact.NEWTransformative trends+Highlighted disruptive technologies Create scenarios to envision how disruptive technologies imp
17、act on your business,create your preferred future and think of the next best actions to tap into opportunities.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious5Global megatrends1.Unpredictable,multi-polar world2.Challenged democracy3.Shifting demographics4.Profound sustainability5.Accelerated energy transition6.Dig
18、itally enhanced economies7.New societal norms02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious61.Unpredictable,multi-polar worldWith global pandemics,inflation and geopolitical tension,uncertainty in everything is rising.Protectionism is growing as disrupted trade,energy&food crises,and weakening of the global co-op
19、eration underline self-reliance and existence of hardgeopolitics.Worlds multi-polarity increases while individual countries strive for economic clout.Tactical alliances&partnershipschange trade paradigms and create spheres of influence.The geography of production and distribution has started to chan
20、geradically,as regionalism tries to supplant globalism:reshoring and nearshoring are increasing when long-distance links aresevered or disturbed.The risk landscape for businesses is now more complex than ever.Things to considerThe extremely high level of public debt could lead to an economic crisis&
21、social unrest.Geopolitical tension increases risk aversion among many investors.Nationalism&protectionism can undermine EUs unity and ability to act.Asia is expected to continue leading the global market growth.Take actionDecentralised global supply chains are digitally integrated by technology:tech
22、nological frontrunners advance their geopolitical positions.Self-sufficiency&availability of critical raw materials are determining the trajectory.Reshaped alliances are gaining momentum.Key themes:shifting geopolitics,nearshoring,protectionism,regionalism,fragmenting co-operation&tactical alignment
23、s,self-sufficiency,critical resources,VUCA,(cyber)warfare,decoupling,inequality,interconnectedness of global crises.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:VTT Material Bank72.Challenged democracyAs social and environmental challenges build up,the trust in democracy is being tested.Restriction of in
24、dividual rights during the COVID-19 pandemic,political instability,abuse of power,and the hampered decision making in modern-day VUCA-worlds have all raised questions about legitimacy and functionality of liberal open societies.With populist interventions becoming more frequent and democratic proces
25、ses weakening,pluralistic civil society is striving to make its voice heard.Things to consider39%of the global population today live in Non-Free countries(highest since 1997):more countries are developing towards authoritarianism than democracy.Only in 20%of countries there is electoral democracy,ci
26、tizens are equal before the law and the actions of the executive are constrained by the legislative and the courts.Growing inequalities intensify challenges for democracy locally and sustainability globally.Take actionGlobal governance chaos&multitude of divergent political ideologies keep rising.Di
27、gital platforms are creating new opportunities for influencing,and power abuse.Changing social systems require companies to take into account the transfer of investments&intellectual property,the access to foreign markets,possible boycotts and protectionist domestic agendas.Key themes:battle of soci
28、al systems,endangered human rights&equality,information warfare,humanitarianism,weakening of international organisations,democratic short-sightedness,(social)media provocation,rogue states.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:Unsplash83.Shifting demographicsThe worlds population growth continues,
29、but the pace is slowing down.The 8 billion mark was met mid-November 2022.Despite a decline in overall fertility and mortality,as well as increased emigration,population trends vary greatly around the world.Many of the worlds 46 least developed countries are projected to double their population by 2
30、050,while high-income countries may be solely growing through international migration.The amplified concentration of the working age population creates opportunities for enhanced economic growth.Things to considerIndia has already surpassed China as the most populous country.Sub-Saharan Africa may c
31、ontribute over 50%the global population growth through 2050.The share and number of over 65-year-olds is increasing globally,with women outnumbering men at older ages.Generation Alpha(2010-2024)is expected to be the largest generation yet.Take actionUnderstand Gen Z that is taking over as decision-m
32、akers and largest market,with new values and interests:conscious brands,empowering work cultures,social justice,mental health,gender-fluid concepts.Contribute to the social safety net:Europe is estimated to have the largest aging population in the world.Anticipate the unforeseen shortage&competition
33、 on workforce.Key themes:multi-diversity,changing workforce composition,responsible migration,social security,universal health care&long-term care systems,wealth differences,demographic dividend,human capital,sustainability,data collection,urbanisation,mega cities,heterogenous society,complex needs.
34、02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:Unsplash94.Profound sustainabilityClimate change keeps having fast-growing socioeconomic impacts on natural capital,liveability,food systems,physical assets,and infrastructure services.The swift biodiversity loss,climate issues and exploding waste all endanger
35、 growth and stress the need for fundamental sustainability of the society.Initiatives for sustainability have skyrocketed in the past decade,but achieving the needed global,collective climate goals has fallen short:tackling climate change requires major business,economic and social changes.Things to
36、 considerEnvironmental issues exacerbate systems-level disruption to customers,investors,and communities:over 50%of the global GDP is directly dependent on nature.More than 90%of all materials extracted are wasted:the world is only 8.6%circular.Take actionSustainabilitys complexity is growing:consis
37、tent,comparable and transparent ESG-action&reporting are increasingly expected,and required,from all organisations.The Zero Concept World will be one of the biggest economic transformations ever:innovative sustainability technologies&business models are developed across industries.Social enterprises
38、 with environmental preservation&customer satisfaction symbiosis are rising.Key themes:low-emission clean energy,circular&sharing economy,digitally optimised(material)efficiency,new&alternative resources,W2E,water&food management,Re-everything,Finlands forest economy,carbon-tech,electrification of e
39、verything.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:Unsplash105.Accelerated energy transitionClimate change mitigation depends on effective emissions reduction and electrification of the society,both requiring huge amounts of clean energy.The ongoing global energy crisis has reshaped the world energy
40、order,and for the first time ever the peak for fossil fuels demand is in sight.With the vulnerable energy markets,more sustainable,secure,low-priced andefficient energy options are actively sought after.Long-term structural changes are made,as US Inflation Reduction Act,RePowerEU,and Japans Green Tr
41、ansformation(GX)program show example of.Yet,stronger policies to drive the crucial investments are still needed.Things to considerIn Finland electricity consumption is expected to double by 2030,triple by 2040.“High point for global emissions is reached in 2025”(IEA 10/2022).Adoption of digital tech
42、nologies within the total power sector will increase and accelerate intelligent,flexible energy management,but also engage energy users as part of the dynamic energy systems.Take actionEnd-use sectors are increasingly electrified,while cleaner(synthetic)fuels are adopted in areas where electrificati
43、on is difficult.Future energy systems will be a combination of clean electricity and hydrogen.Key themes:renewables,hydrogen,advanced biofuels,power-to-liquids,system integration,geo-energy,innovative storage,adequacy of minerals,electrified society infrastructure(i.e.smart district heating,modular
44、nuclear power plants,microgrids).02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:Unsplash116.Digitally enhanced economiesGlobalisation,rapid technological development and connectivity keep driving digitalisation across the world.Combined,convergent and interdependent technologies are now utilised across ind
45、ustries,and the rising interconnectivity is speeding up disruption.New environments,markets and business models keep on emerging.Digital transition affects all parts of the society and is progressively shaking the very foundations of cyber security:data collection reaches almost all aspects of the m
46、odern life,and data management is becoming ever more important.Things to considerDisruptive digital economy technologies could deliver additional global economic activity of about USD 13 trillion by 2030.Countries are increasingly prioritising high performance digital infrastructures:the EU is inves
47、ting billions in digitisation and digital economy.Digital infrastructures create several new opportunities&threats:enhanced use of resources,faster development and economic growth,also inequality and high energy demand.Take actionThe nature of innovations is changing towards customer experience,whil
48、e intangible resources become crucial for growth:the future is defined by real-time connectivity.Key themes:smart cities,digital&autonomous material development,e-government,Internet of Things,generative-AI,machine learning,open-source tech,quantum computing,cyber security,connectivity(5G/6G),Big Da
49、ta,blockchain,Industry 5.0,robotics,fintech,networks&clouds,zero latency.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:Unsplash127.New societal normsThe boundaries that define our lives are shifting radically,and people are increasingly living in separate realities.The progress of technology is changing w
50、ork,leisure,retirement and lifelong learning.Work has become increasingly time-place independent,while remote practices have created new business models.The importance of digital capabilities is growing exponentially:smart homes,clothes,wearables,services and experiences,virtuality and automation al
51、l illustrate todays connected living,nature and society.Things to considerConsumption&value chains are changing:conspicuous consumption is increasingly questioned,broad spectrum of business models drive on customer engagement.Reshaped role of paid work:new approaches to talent and workplace impact u
52、rban economies,transportation&consumer spending.Old gender assumptions&stereotypes are fading:women manage 70%of the global consumer trade,minority empowerment is increasingly important.Take actionBehavioural analytics&design form a central part of todays business environment.Technologies with long-
53、term disruption potential emphasise both the human and planetary-impact.Key themes:flexible employment,human clouds,AI,Metaverse,VR/AR/MR/XR,deepfakes,autonomous&integrated mobility,eHealth,eCommerce,digital-physical services,remote product development,sharing economy,3D/4D printing,virtual cultures
54、,behaviour analytics,personalisation communality,she-economies,LGBTQIA+,transhumanism,wearables,crypto currencies.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousPicture:Unsplash13Transformative trendsIn the section below we cover three examples of areas that are rapidly transforming due to technological advancemen
55、ts and the megatrends drive.Each of the following snapshots includes a short description of the transformative megatrends,as well as examples of the recent disruptive developments.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious14A.Mobility technologies Transformative megatrendsThe transition pace from fossil-fuel-
56、based automotive powertrains to low-or zero-emission powertrains is increasing rapidly.Manufacturers are exploring alternative energy sources(e.g.hydrogen)for overall economic sustainability.Faster transitions are a major economic goal for several countries to achieve a cleaner and safer environment
57、 as soon as possible.Todays major technology trends in mobility and transport include electrification,automation,connectivity,and as-a-service.Mobility trendsAutonomous vehicles,robotaxis,delivery robots,glydwaysWireless electric vehicle charging and electric roadsElectrification of heavy-duty road
58、and off-highway vehiclesFleet platooningBiofuels and fuel cellsMicromobility for hyperlocal delivery and urban e-scootersMobility-as-a-serviceUrban rail trafficMaritime shipping trendsAutonomous and electric shipsPort automation,digital portsSustainability including alternative fuelsAviation trendsA
59、utonomous robots and dronesElectric aircrafts and helicoptersFlying taxis,electric vertical take-off and landing(eVTOL)aircraftsSmart airports,self-service and biometricsSupersonic aircraft technologiesSustainable aviation fuel(SAF)Digitalisation of mobility industryUtilisation of data and learning
60、modelsVehicle-to-vehicle communicationsDigital TwinsCyber security02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious15B.Health technologiesTransformative megatrendsCOVID-19 accelerated various health technologies,especially in relation to mobile health,health equity,healthcare resilience and sustainability.The rapidl
61、y evolving digital&e-health is both a consequence of and a driver for consumers remote care preferences.In response to the growing healthcare challenges,the focus areas of the sector today include preparedness,equal&accessible care,digitalupskilling,healthcare costs&staffing,and medical innovation.H
62、ealthcare trendsMobile&Telehealth:virtual primary care,health communitiesPoint-of-Care diagnosticsInternet of Medical Things:data management,(multi)wireless interfaces.Personalised Health:precision medicine,connected patientEdge wearables with internal processorsRobotics:transportation materials&equ
63、ipment,diagnostics,operationArtificial Intelligence:medical imagery(early warning signs),analytical care(detecting&treating),clerical work(medical record keeping)Drug discovery&diagnostics trendsAI in pattern recognition&outcome predictionDNA sequencing&synthesis,next-gen gene therapiesCell therapy
64、2.0,biometrics&bioinformaticsGenomics&genome engineeringmRNA medicines&therapeuticsNano-and biomaterials&sensors(non-invasive testing)Wellness trendsSmart equipment,wellness platforms&appsWearables for physical&mental health monitoringBehavioural healthPersonalised supplementsAt-home testing kitsWel
65、lness metaverse,gamified exerciseRetail healthcare(blood tests,vaccinations,check-ups)02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious16C.Material technologiesTransformative megatrendsThe need for new,sustainable materials keeps growing along with the increasing waste and emissions,and the lack of raw materials.Pro
66、ducers and constructors are now focusing on reducing material usage and losses,incorporating sustainable alternatives to their new and existing outputs,and complying with the ever stricter regulation of materials.Scale-up of sustainable materials is vital,and the pressure for large-scale industrial
67、production&cost effectiveness is growing:real impact is made only if the old,unsustainable ways of production are replaced.Materials industry trendsSustainability&circularityFeedstock innovation,critical raw material recoveryLimitation of energy,water&raw materials,energy storageLightweighting,durab
68、ilitySmart,functional&responsive materialsAdditive manufacturing,advanced compositesMaterial informatics&digitisationMaterials management 4.0Key materialsBiomaterials&biomimicryIndustrial sidestreams&by-products(Organic)waste materialsAlternative materials(sand,CO2negative concrete)NanomaterialsGrap
69、hene&2D materialsMaterial technology trendsAI for material exploration&developmentDigital twins for design iterations3D printing(i.e.mycelium)Synthetic biologyNanotechnologySurface engineeringPolymerisationCarbon capture and storage(CCUS)02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious17Highlighted disruptive techn
70、ologiesIn this final section of the report we highlight a few of the most disruptive technologies that touch countless industries and areas of life.Some of these technologies already have a central part in our everyday living,while others are just about to change the norms.Each of the pages below in
71、cludes a short description of the disruptive phenomena,a few application examples and a future outlook for the technologies.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious18A.Human-like AIPhenomena:Artificial Intelligence(AI)can be defined as the ability of machines to mimic and simulate the human problem-solving
72、and decision-making capabilities.Today AI is demonstrated particularly in intelligent computer systems and machine learning,but there is an increasing attempt to make AI present human-like,general intelligence.This would mean for AI to construct&continue a train of thought,maintain&leverage long-ter
73、mmemory,learn from feedback,and even develop a conscience.Applications&use-case examplesExpert systems,machine vision&reactive machinesNatural language processing,voice&image recognition(Generative AI)Deep learning&decision-making(programming,science,art,games)DeepMinds AI-programs can save 30%of th
74、e energy used to cool-down data centres,diagnose eye diseases like the greatest doctors,and predict complex 3D shapes of proteins.Metas game-playing AI makes and breaks alliances like a human.OpenAIs open-source Point-E paves the way for AI-breakthroughs with tools that produce 3D models in seconds.
75、Earlier the company has broken headlines with its AI image generator DALL-E and the intelligent chatbot ChatGPT that recently even co-authored a research article.Segments most impactedInformation technology,data securityHealthcare,diagnosis,therapeutics,virtual assistants,precision medicine,wearable
76、s.Marketing,customer interaction,tailored processesTransport,automated fleets,traffic securityIndustry maintenance,energy efficiency,automationFinance,insurance,fraud detection,algorithmic tradingFuture outlookAccording to McKinsey(2022)the adoption of AI has more than doubled since 2017,with compan
77、ies extending their AI capabilities and investments.The potential contribution of AI to the global economy has been estimated to reach USD 15.7 trillion by 2030.Despite the economic downturn and massive layoffs in tech companies,there has been no signs of AI winter:the fields research continues to t
78、ake big leaps,while the pressure keeps growing.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious19B.Cyber security technologiesPhenomena:Cyber security is the process of protecting internet-connected systems from cyber attacks.The advances in technologies including cloud computing,the internet of things(IoT)and arti
79、ficial intelligence(AI)have increased the threat of cyber attacks and other internet-based threats.Furthermore,the shift to remote and hybrid work as well as spread of IoT devices has increased the importance of cyber security.Applications&use-case examplesAI and automation programs enable faster id
80、entification and containment of data breaches,resulting in an average of USD 3 million savings in costs for organisations using these tools,according to IBM.Emerging cyber security solutions include cyber security training platforms and authentication solutions such as passwordless logins.Remote and
81、 hybrid work has also brough opportunities for companies,such as Talon Cyber Security,which has developed an enterprise browser to enable secure work regardless of location,device type or operating system.Metaverse is facing multiple security challenges including user authentication,privacy,network
82、security,ransomware and financial fraud.Segments most impactedDefence and intelligenceBanking,Financial Services and Institutions(BFSI)Telecommunication and ITGovernmentHealthcareRetail and eCommerceIoT verticals:Health care,Smart homes&Consumers,Infrastructure&Cities,Transport&Urban mobility,Indust
83、rial systems&SensorsFuture outlookThe global cyber security market is expected to reach USD 266 billion in 2027 with a CARG of 8.9%between 2023 and 2027.Drivers:adoption of cloud-based solutions and wireless communication,increased targeted cyber attacks.Restrains:Lack of budget and expertise.02/05/
84、2023VTT beyond the obvious20C.3D printingPhenomena:3D printing,or additive manufacturing(AM),is the process of making a 3D object from a digital model by depositing successive layers of material in different shapes.Many different materials including organic,ceramic,polymeric and metallic materials a
85、re used in industrial manufacturing and creating prototypes.In addition,3D bioprinting,which is a relatively new technology,has huge potential to benefit several industries including personalised medicine,drug discovery and cosmetics.Applications&use-case examplesConcept modelling and rapid prototyp
86、ing as well as pilot production of low-volume components,especially with complex geometries,light components and spare parts.For example,BMW uses AM components in its iX5,which is a sports activity vehicle powered by hydrogen fuel cellsand Saab has used AM to repair damaged Gripen fighter jets.Chile
87、an Copper3D designed a face mask made from antimicrobial copper-based filament in the middle of the COVID-19 crisis.Polish 3D printing company Sygnis provided printers and raw material to Ukraine to print protective equipment,tourniquets and drones.Bioprinting and bio-ink:UPMs GrowInks offer hydroge
88、ls,which mimic the in vivo environment and CELLINK provides tools for researchers to develop alternatives to animal models and 3D printed organs.Segments most impactedAutomotiveIndustrial manufacturingConsumer productsAerospace and DefenceMedical and DentalConstruction and ArchitectureBioprinting:Pe
89、rsonalised medicine,cell cultured food,drug discovery,regenerative medicine,cosmeticsFuture outlookBy 2027,the global AM market will generate USD 37.25 billion in revenue with a 20.4%CARG between 2021-2026.Drivers include AM&supply chains,flexibility,demand driven production,mass customisation,novel
90、 materials including metals and sustainable materials and applications in nuclear and space.The main challenge is the inability to compete on cost with traditional manufacturing on economies on scale.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious21D.Metaverse&new realitiesPhenomena:Metaverse is often described as
91、 the next iteration of the Internet.As a shared platform,an immersive,persistent,3D virtual space,it gives people the opportunity to experience life in ways not necessarily possible in the physical world.Technologies such as augmented reality(AR)glasses and virtual reality(VR)headsets are considered
92、 the precursors or primary interfaces to access the virtual worlds,however the future Metaverse-solutions remains to be seen.Applications&use-case examplesSelling goods&services that only exist digitally(i.e.non-fungible tokens)Arranging concerts and other events in virtual universesAR and digital t
93、wins are for operational improvementBrand presence in VR settings(Hyundai)and own Metaverses(Disney).Decentraland(2020):first blockchain-powered place in the metaverse.The 3D virtual world enables users to buy,create&explore NFT-based plots of land through its own cryptocurrency.Sandbox(2021):platfo
94、rm that allows users to purchase land,collect cryptocurrency tokens,and participate in play-to-earn games.Nvidia Omniverse:platform for developing,creating and operating 3D pipelines and metaverse applications.Segments most impactedOnline experiences,games,services&entertainmenteCommerce,branding&di
95、gital marketingConnectivity,social networks&-media,content creationVirtual work&meetings,data managementHealthcare&rehabilitationEducation,training,testing&inspectionFuture outlookGen Z is expected to be Metaverses primary audience,but many of its future use-cases are still unknown.Valuations of the
96、 Metaverse market vary distinctively,yet showing the huge potential for disruption.Metaverse may be USD 800 billion market,next tech platform(Bloomberg Intelligence 2021)Goldman Sachs Sees the Metaverse as USD 8 Trillion Opportunity(2022)Despite the optimistic projections,various views have been pre
97、sented as to why Metaverse would likely fail.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious22E.Quantum computingPhenomena:By using the laws of quantum mechanics,quantum computing is producing exponentially high performance of calculations and solving problems significantly fast,beyond todays computers.Because of
98、this,quantum computers are expected to disrupt breakthroughs in various industries,and help us overcome some of the biggest challenges of today.Applications&use-case examplesComplex problem-solving&calculationOptimisation&simulation(digital twins)Risk modelling,defence,finite difference analysisD-Wa
99、ve is selling quantum-annealed computer for USD 20 million.IBM,IonQ,and Rigetti are selling small prototypesCurrently,one of the main business areas for quantum computers lies in the growth of cloud-based quantum services(by Google,Microsoft,Alibaba,recently Amazon).The Quantum as a Service(QaaS)clo
100、uds give customers access to quantum computing through online platforms.Developing more effective and easier ways of programming noisy quantum devices is another focus area of quantum businesses today.Segments most impactedEnergy management,net-zero,logistics optimisationHealthcare,drug development,
101、predictive modelsFinance,market projections,probability analysisMaterial&chemical compound discoveryFuture outlookFunding of quantum technology start-ups was more than doubled from 2020 to USD 1.4 billion in 2021.Estimations for global quantum computing market are educated guesses at best.Some of th
102、e leading industry commentators estimate the markets size to rise between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion by 2025,McKinsey(2022)projecting the market to reach nearly USD 700 billion in 2035.Despite the massive disruption potential,quantum computers are also expected to pose many threats and cyber se
103、curity risks,even break all existing data encryption.It is still unclear when the technology will reach commercial-scale,but i.e.GlobalData predicts it to be by 2027.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious23F.HydrogenPhenomena:Urbanisation,electrification,asset autonomy,and increasing digitalisation&sustai
104、nability are accelerating investments in low-carbon technologies,mainly hydrogen.Especially the emission-free,electrolysis-based green hydrogen is in high demand,as industries and the power sector rush to decarbonise.The transition to green hydrogen has been advanced by the 70%increase in the natura
105、l gas-based blue and grey hydrogen production costs by the Russo-Ukrainian War,but many of the hydrogen projects still remain in their pilot stages.Applications&use-case examplesPower to gas(P2G),renewables integration,grid balancingDecarbonisation of industrial sectors,substitution of fossil fuelsA
106、mmonia as a carrier for hydrogenMore than 50%of the total hydrogen consumption in EU,EFTA,and UK take place in Germany,Poland,Netherlands&Spain.Around dozen electrolyser demonstration projects are investigating the use of nuclear power for H2 production.NASAs spaceships fuelled with hydrogen create
107、water for the astronauts to drink.Segments most impactedEnergy production,transport,long-term storage,fuelsIndustrial production,especially steel and chemicalsFuture outlookIn the next 5-10 years,hydrogen industry will see massive transformation on regulatory frameworks,technological innovations&dec
108、arbonisation,which will drive the market.The global demand for hydrogen is projected to more than double by 2030.The market for green hydrogen is expected to reach USD 89 billion by 2030(CAGR of 51%from 2021).Despite the capital intensity of blue hydrogen in terms of CO capturing,it is expected to d
109、ominate for the next 8-10 years.In 2020,99.3%of hydrogen was produced by polluting methods.The global installed electrolyser capacity could reach 54 GW by 2030.PEM electrolysers are expected to witness a higher growth-rate than alkaline electrolysers.It is expected that the decarbonisation with hydr
110、ogen will require over USD 15 trillion 2022-2050.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious24G.Carbon capturePhenomena:Carbon capture refers to a variety of technologies that capture CO2from diverse large point sources,power plants and industrial facilities,or directly from the atmosphere.Carbon capture,utili
111、sation and storage(CCUS)technologies allow to use the captured CO2on-site,inject it into deep geological formations for permanent storage,or compress and transport it for various application areas.These technologies enable to use carbon as a productive feedstock but also provide the foundation for n
112、egative emissions through carbon removal.Applications&use-case examplesIndustrial processes(emission cuts)Power generation&storageProduction(i.e.cement,iron,steel,chemicals)Fuel transformation(i.e.clean aviation fuels)The biggest carbon capture systems today include pre-combustion,oxy-fuel combustio
113、n and post-combustion capture.Today there are 30 CCS-projects in operation,and 164 in development or under construction,North America leading the deployment.In 2022 the CO2capture capacity of all facilities under development increased by 44%,with 61 new facilities added to the pipeline.Segments most
114、 impactedEnergy production,transport&storageManufacturing,emission cuts,CO2as a feedstockConstruction,zero-emission building aggregatesFuture outlookThe deployment of CCUS-technologies has not yet lived up to its promises,but its momentum has grown strong.The global market for CCUS is expected to gr
115、ow from USD 2.6 billion in 2021 to USD 5.2 billion by 2026(CAGR of 15.0%),with European CCUS technologies growing at 24.5%.Carbon capture can play a critical role in sustainable transformation but according to McKinsey(2022),the global CCUS uptake would need to grow 120 times by 2050,to achieve the
116、net-zero commitments.To enhance CCUS adoption,its energy consumption and costs must still be decreased,efficiency to be technologically improved,and CO2 storages time-and cost effectiveness to be demonstrated.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious25Disclaimer02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious26DisclaimerThe
117、 themes covered in this report present some of the major development patterns of the macroenvironment and a few trending technologies,selected and scanned by VTT Business Intelligence with Swanlake Strategy and Frost&Sullivan.The methodology behind the report includes reviewing and analysing hundred
118、s of information sources and reports,using both open source and subscribed material.The report does not list all the impactful trends of today,leaving out various exciting topics regarding food,energy,biotech,blockchain,connectivity,the Internet of Things and Industry 5.0.As opinions on technology a
119、re often polarised,and the separation of hype from real impact can be tricky,we have also tried to challenge some of the technologies future perspectives.We hope you find our selected themes attention-grabbing and challenge our views.The megatrends presented have been chosen by reviewing different r
120、eports from,i.e.GlobalData,McKinsey,Sitra and Frost&Sullivan,and by combining views on the dominating global powers.Please note the Western perspective of this report and the fact that megatrends can be defined differently in other parts of the world.In the transformative trends-section,we have sele
121、cted three examples of areas where exciting technology-driven changes have been made.These sectors have been chosen in consideration of VTTs areas of interest.The highlighted disruptive technologies point out a few transformative,cross-sectoral technology advancements.In this section,we have partly
122、differed from the VTTs larger areas of focus and presented technologies that are not necessarily connected to any specific industry.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious27Read more02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious28Read more:Global megatrends1.Unpredictable,multi-polar worldModern Diplomacy,2022:A“Multipo
123、lar World”:A Transformation in the Global System.Read 02/2023.International IDEA,2022:Global Democracy Weakens in 2022.Read 02/2023.2.Challenged democracyFreedom House,2022:The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule.Read 02/2023.VTT Trend Report 20223.Shifting demographicsUnited Nations,Department o
124、f Economic and Social Affairs,2022:World Population Prospects 2022.Read 02/2023.Finances Online,2022:8 Generation Z Trends&Predictions for 2022/2023A Look Into Whats Next.Read 02/2023.Exploding Topics,2023:7 Key Gen Z Trends for 2023.Read 02/2023.McCrindle,2022:The worlds population has reached 8 bi
125、llion.Read 02/2023.The Future Of Commerce,2022.Welcome to Generation Alpha:Definition,stats,predictions.Read 02/2023.Bloomberg,2023:Indias Population Has Already Overtaken Chinas,Analysts Estimate.Read 02/2023.Anadolu Ajans,2022:Europe has largest aging population in world.Read 02/2023.World Economi
126、c Forum,2022:Heres what the EU population could look like by 2100.Read 02/2023.4.Profound sustainabilityDeloitte,2021:Key regulations in the area of sustainable development.Read 02/2023.The World Counts,2023.Environmental Degradation Facts.Read 02/2023.Daily Mail,2021:Humans are using 73%more natura
127、l resources than the Earth produces in a year-with wealthy nations living out of their means fueling the problem.Read 02/2023.Circularity Gap,2022:Five Years of the Circularity Gap Report.Read 02/2023.Strategy+Business,2022:The race to keep pace with investor expectations on ESG.Read 02/2023.5.Accel
128、erated energy transitionIRENA,2022:Global Hydrogen Trade to Meet the 1.5C Climate Goal:Green Hydrogen Cost and Potential.Read 02/2023.Fingrid,2022:Fingrid and Gasgrid Finland request feedback from stakeholders on the draft scenarios of their joint project.Read 02/2023.IRENA,2022:A Quarter of Global
129、Hydrogen Set for Trading by 2050.Read 02/2023.IEA,2022:World Energy Outlook 2022 shows the global energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure future.Read 02/2023.Fingrid,2022:Self-Sufficient in Emission-Free Electricity.Read 02/2023.6.Digitally enhanced economiesA
130、ndritz,2022:Digitalization as a Megatrend.Read 02/2023.EIB,2022:Connecting the world.Read 02/2023.OECD,2022:Driving long-term recovery and economic growth by building a trusted,sustainable,and inclusive digital future.Read 02/2023.7.New societal normsEuromonitor International,2022:Megatrends:Diversi
131、ty and Inclusion.Read 02/2023.VTT Trend Report 202202/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious29Read more:Technology trends Transformative trendsA.Mobility technologiesForbes,2022:The Future Trends In Mobility And Transportation.Read 02/2023.Bernard Marr&Co.,2022:The 3 Biggest Future Trends In Transportation A
132、nd Mobility.Read 02/2023.StartUs Insights,2022:Top 8 Electric Mobility Trends&Innovations in 2023.Read 02/2023.EV Magazine,2022:Top 10 global e-mobility trends and developments in 2022.Read 02/2023.ID Tech Ex,2022:Six Future Mobility Trends from IDTechEx Research.Read 02/2023.QOCO Systems,2022:Top 5
133、 Innovations And Trends In Aviation In 2022.Read 02/2023.Techaeris,2022:Seven rising technology trends in the aviation industry.Read 02/2023.GreatWorkLife,2022:8 Technology Trends For The Aviation Industry To Focus On In 2022.Read 02/2023.Inbound Logistics,2022:Wave of the Future:5 Maritime Shipping
134、 Trends.Read 02/2023.Synergixs Technologies,2022:Top 4 Leading Maritime Trends in 2022 2023.Read 02/2023.Maritime Fairtrade,2022:6 Forthcoming Innovation&Trends In Shipping Industry.Read 02/2023.Military+Aerospace Electronics,2022:Seven emerging technological trends shaping aviation in 2022.Read 02/
135、2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Growth Opportunities in Global Fuel Cell Transit and Coach Buses.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Trend Opportunity ProfilesFuture of Mobility.Read 02/2023.B.Health technologiesPhilips,2023:10 healthcare technology trends for 2023.Read 02/2023.McKinsey&Company,2022:McKinsey
136、insights on cell and gene therapy.Read 02/2023.aviNews,2021:Current trends in vaccine development.Read 02/2023.Deloitte,2022:2022 Global Health Care Outlook.Read 02/2023.Shopify,2022:A$1.5 Trillion Opportunity:The Future of the Health and Wellness Industry.Read 02/2023.Healthcare Transformers,2022:T
137、op 10 healthcare trends expected to take 2023 by storm.Read 02/2023.Forbes,2022:The Top 5 Healthcare Trends In 2023.Read 02/2023.C.Material technologiesMinna Takala,2022:Innovative Material Trends 2022+.Read 02/2023.The Future Materials Bank,2022:Materials.Read 02/2023.StartUs Insights,2022:Top 10 M
138、aterials Industry Trends&Innovations in 2023.Read 02/2023.02/05/2023VTT beyond the obvious30Read more:Technology trends02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousHighlighted disruptive technologiesA.Human-like artificial intelligenceTechTarget,2022:artificial intelligence(AI).Read 02/2023.Emeritus,2022:Example
139、s of Artificial Intelligence(AI)in 7 Industries.Read 02/2023.MIT News,2022:Does this artificial intelligence think like a human?Read 02/2023.PwC,2022:PwCs Global Artificial Intelligence Study:Exploiting the AI Revolution.Read 02/2023.McKinsey&Company,2022:The state of AI in 2022and a half decade in
140、review.Read 02/2023.IBM,2022:What is artificial intelligence(AI)?Read 02/2023.Get Smarter,2022:The Future of AI:5 Industries That Will Be Most Affected.Read 02/2023.Physics World,2022:Experts debate the possible paths to human-like AI.Read 02/2023.MIT Technology Review,2023:The economy is down,but A
141、I is hot.Where do we go from here?Read 02/2023.B.Cyber security technologiesMarkets and Markets,2023:Cyber security market.Read 02/2023.Forbes,2022:The Top Five Cybersecurity Trends In 2023.Read 02/2023.Deloitte,2022:Cyber risk in an Internet of Things world.Read 02/2023.Cision PR Newswire,2022:Worl
142、dwide Multi-Factor Authentication Industry to 2027-by Component,Authentication Model Type,Organization Size,Industry and Region.Read 02/2023.Forbes,2023:Cybersecurity Trends To Look Out For In 2023.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Growth Opportunities in Cybersecurity Training Platforms,Vulnerabilit
143、y Management,Threat Detection,Remediation and Authentication Solutions.Read 02/2023.BCC Research,2022:Cybersecurity:Technologies and Global Markets.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Insights for CISOs on Metaverse Security.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Growth Opportunities in Cloud Security,Data S
144、ecurity,EDR Security,Identity and Access Management,Network Security,Vulnerability Detection and Security Compliance.Read 02/2023.C.3D printingForbes,2022:Putting 3D Printers To Work In Ukraines War Zone.Read 02/2023.StartUs Insights,2022:Top 10 Additive Manufacturing Trends&Innovations in 2023.Read
145、 02/2023.3D,2022:BMW Begins Production of Hydrogen-Powered iX5 Vehicle with 3D Printed Parts.Read 02/2023.BBC Research,2022:Advanced Materials for 3D Printing:Technologies and Global Markets.Read 02/2023.BCC Research,2022:3D Printed Medical Devices.Read 02/2023.BCC Research,2022:Additive Manufacturi
146、ng in Powder Metallurgy:Global Markets.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Global Additive Manufacturing Growth Opportunities.Read 02/2023.31Read more:Technology trends02/05/2023VTT beyond the obviousD.Metaverse&new realitiesTechTarget,2022:What is the metaverse?An explanation and in-depth guide.Read 0
147、2/2023.TechTarget,2022:10 real-world use cases of the metaverse,plus examples.Read 02/2023.Inside Telecom,2022:Why Most Projects in the Metaverse Will Fail.Read 02/2023.AI News,2023:Bill Gates calls AI quite revolutionary but is less sure about the metaverse.Read 02/2023.Bitcoin,2022:Goldman Sachs S
148、ees the Metaverse as$8 Trillion Opportunity.Read 02/2023.Fanbytes,2022:7 Metaverse Examples to Inspire Your Brand.Read 02/2023.Crowdcreate,2022:Top Companies Building in the Metaverse.Read 02/2023.Bloomberg,2021:Metaverse may be$800 billion market,next tech platform.Read 02/2023.E.Quantum computingW
149、orld Economic Forum,2022:Organizations should make these 3 changes now to protect against the quantum computing threat.Read 02/2023.McKinsey&Company,2022:How quantum computing could change the world.Read 02/2023.McKinsey&Company,2021:Quantum computing use cases are getting realwhat you need to know.
150、Read 02/2023.The Digital Speaker,2022:How quantum computing will change the world.Read 02/2023Dataconomy,2022:Quantum computing turns into accessible services with the cloud-based quantum computers.Read 02/2023.Techopedia,2022:Quantum as a Service.Read 02/2023.CB Insights,2021:How Quantum Computing
151、Will Transform These 9 Industries.Read 02/2023.GlobalData Disruptor,2023:Quantum Computing.Read 02/2023.F.Hydrogen Hydrogen Europe,2022:Clean Hydrogen Monitor 2022.Read 02/2023.Medium,Phystech Ventures,2022:Hydrogen Technology Outlook:Current Trends and Forecasts.Read 02/2023.Globuc,2022:Too big to
152、fail:five hydrogen trends to watch in 2022.Read 02/2023.GlobeNewswire,2022:Green Hydrogen Market Size,Share&Trends Analysis Report By Technology,By Application,By Distribution Channel,By Region And Segment Forecasts,2022 2030.Read 02/2023.GlobeNewswire,2022:Green Hydrogen Market Size,Share&Trends An
153、alysis Report By Technology,By Application,By Distribution Channel,By Region And Segment Forecasts,2022 2030.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Global Non-battery Energy Storage(NBES)Growth Opportunities.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,Oct 2022:Growth Opportunities in Hydrogen as a Commercial Aviation Fue
154、.Read 02/2023.Frost&Sullivan,2022:Growth Opportunities for Breakthrough Innovations in High-temperature Electrolysis Technology.Read 02/2023.G.Carbon captureIEA,2022:Carbon capture,utilisation and storage.Read 02/2023.IEA,2022:CCUS technology innovation.Read 02/2023.IEA,2023:Energy Technology Perspe
155、ctives 2023.Read 02/2023.Global CCS Institute,2022:Building momentum as we shift into a phase of action.Read 02/2023.IEA,2019:Transforming Industry through CCUS.Read 02/2023.McKinsey&Company,2022:Scaling the CCUS industry to achieve net-zero emissions.Read 02/2023.BCC Research,2022:Carbon Capture,Utilization&Storage Technologies.Read 02/2023.32 Eveliina Jutila,Krista Kovanen,Jarmo Vuorinen,Sonja Martikainenand Kaj Mntyln.nvtt.fitel.+358 20 722 111DOI:10.32040/2023.VTT-TrendReport