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1、Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making thei
2、r investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.For a list of authors,please see overleaf.This 20th ed
3、ition of our annual review of top assets in global oil and gas production signals a turning point in the oil&gas capex cycle,as higher returns and a renewed sense of urgency around security of supply bring the industry back to growth.We highlight five key themes of change:1)Investment growth:we expe
4、ct oil&gas activity to compound at+9%pa growth(+13/24%for deepwater and LNG)by 2025,with a 2.4x increase of investmentdecisions from the trough.The industry currently has 70 giant projects underdevelopment,25%more than in 2020,but still 35%below the 2014 level.2)Production growth:despite higher inve
5、stment,production growth remainselusive.We expect non-OPEC ex-shale to remain broadly flat in the coming years andshale to slow down and peak by 2026-27,leading to a call on OPEC of 1.6 mn blsd by2025.3)Profitability:consolidation and higher hurdle rates continue to support strong profitability,with
6、 IRR 15%in LNG and 20%in oil for this years new projects.4)Shrinking reserves:oil reserve life keeps shrinking to 23 years,a 56%reduction over the past decade,as exploration disappoints and focus shifts to short-cycle,short-life developments.Investment delays since 2014 will cost 10 mn blsd of oil p
7、roduction equivalent to Saudis annual production by 2024,while we do not expect material LNG growth to materialise until 2026.5)Steepening cost curve:the Top Projects cost curve has become smaller andsteeper,with incentive pricing for oil at$80/bl and LNG at$11/mcf.EQUITYRESEARCH|27 June,2023|04:11A
8、M CESTTop Projects 2023Back to growthNoteNote:The following is a redacted version of the original report published on 27 June 2023 78 pgs.Michele Della Vigna,CFA+39 02 8022-Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE-Milan branchNeil Mehta+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCNikhil Bhandari+65 6889-Goldman Sachs(Singapo
9、re)PteBruno Amorim,CFA+55 11 3371-Goldman Sachs do BrasilCTVM S.A.AUTHORSUmang Choudhary+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCYulia Bocharnikova+971 4 214-Goldman Sachs InternationalAti Modak+1 212 902-9365 Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCHenry Meyer+61 2 9321-8932HGoldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdThe authors would like
10、 to thank Anastasia Shalaeva for her contribution.Top Projects in 18 charts Exhibit 1:Seven years of energy under-investment have pushed the oil industry to more than halve its resource life since 2014.Top Projects reserve l ife,by year of report and breakeven Exhibit 2:.as postponements of investme
11、nt decisions will likely lead to c.10 mn bl/d of lost oil production by 2024-25.Top Projects l ost LNG,offshore and onshore oil production from l ong-cycl e devel opments in kboe/d;Top Projects 2023 vs Top Projects 2014 expectations Exhibit 3:.leading to a dramatic steepening of the oil cost curve.T
12、op Projects oil cost curve for pre-pl ateau projects through the years 055002000020202120222023EProduction(mn b/d)Reserve life(years)Producing15%Top Projects I RR by year of FI D spl it by winzone-1,2001,6002,00020014201
13、52000222023E2024E2025E2026EUnconventional liquids production yoy growth(kb/d)BakkenEagle FordMidlandDelawareSTACKSCOOPNiobraraPowder River BasinShale yoy growth0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%200020004200520062007200820092000019
14、2020202120222023E2024EHerfindahl IndexDeepwaterUS shale oilCanada heavy oilNorth Sea0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20002000420052006200720082009200000222023ETop Projects IRR by year of FIDOffshore oilLNGSource:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment ResearchSour
15、ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment ResearchSource:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research27 June 2023 5Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023Top Projects 2023:PM Summary Thi s 20th edi ti on of our annual revi ew of top assets i n global oi l and gas producti on si gnals a turni ng poi nt i n the oi l
16、&gas capex cycle,as hi gher returns and a renewed sense of urgency around securi ty of supply bri ng the i ndustry back to growth.Oil&gas activity has declined at a compounded 7%from 2014 to 2021,and we now expect it to return to 9%pa growth,wi th LNG and deepwater compoundi ng at+24/13%pa respecti
17、vely over the next three years.We hi ghli ght five key themes of change,that we analyse i n detai l i n thi s report:1)Investment growth;2)Producti on growth;3)Profitabi li ty;4)Shri nki ng reserves;5)Steepeni ng cost curve.We expect primary energy capex to grow 48%by 2027 to$1.9 trn(from$1.3 trn in
18、 2022)We beli eve that the energy i ndustry has been under-i nvesti ng si nce the peak of 2014,wi th i nvestments i n tradi ti onal energy(oi l,gas upstream)falli ng 50%i n 2020 from the peak and dri vi ng an 18%reducti on i n global pri mary energy i nvestments,from$1.3trn i n 2014 to$1trn i n 2020
19、.A number of oi l and gas project i nvestment deci si ons have been delayed si nce 2014,translati ng i nto 10 mn bl/d of lost oi l producti on by 2024-25 equi valent to Saudi Arabi as annual producti on and 3 mn boe/d of lost LNG producti on more than Qatar,on our esti mates.The focus has shi fted i
20、 n recent years to energy sustai nabi li ty,but the overall growth of the i nvestments i n renewables has not been suffici ent to compensate for the abrupt drop i n i nvestments i n the tradi ti onal energy space,gi ven the smaller scale and hi gher capi tal i ntensi ty per uni t of energy output.Th
21、e average capex i ntensi ty of low carbon energy developments i s c.2x that of hydrocarbons,further enhanci ng the need for energy capex;we esti mate the need for an i ncremental$1.5trn pa capex by 2032.We expect the annual pace of i nvestment deci si ons i n long-cycle oi l&gas mega-projects to exc
22、eed$150 bn pa by 2024,almost 3.0 x the level of the trough i n 2020,dri ven by a strong recovery i n LNG and deepwater,dri vi ng a return of double-di gi t oi l&gas capex growth for the first ti me i n a decade.27 June 2023 6Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023Exhibit 19:Primary energy capex fell over th
23、e past decade,but we expect it to grow 48%by 2027.Primary energy suppl y capex spl it by source(US$bn)and renewabl es share as a%of total (%)Exhibit 20:.with the renewed focus on energy security re-igniting oil&gas commitments Top Projects capex sanctioned by year,spl it by winzone(excl.Russia)0%10%
24、20%30%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500200000222023E2024E2025E2026E2027EClean energy as a%of total Energy investments(US$bn)Oil&gas-upstreamOil&gas-downstreamCoal-mining&infraBiofuelsCoal&gas-powerNuclearRenewablesNetworks%share of renewablesFuel suppl
25、yPower supply050030020002000420052006200720082009200000222023E2024E2025ETotal capex(US$bn)Traditional(incl.exploitation)Heavy OilGasDeepwaterLNGSource:IEA WEI(historical s),Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment ResearchSource:Gol dman Sac
26、hs Gl obal Investment Research27 June 2023 7Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023Shrinking reserves:Concerns over stranded assets push oil resource life to more than halve since 2014 The strong focus on de-carboni zati on and concerns around stranded assets have led to a curtai lment of oi l&gas capex and
27、 an i ncrease i n the hurdle rate for oi l mega-projects from 10%to 15-20%over the past five years.Accordi ng to our analysi s,the resource li fe of Top Projects(recoverable resources/producti on)fell to 23 years from 50 years i n 2014,a halvi ng si nce the end of the 2004-14 super-cycle.Yet the eco
28、nomi cs are much healthi er,wi th c.70%of the undeveloped resources profitable at a Brent pri ce US$70/bl vs.only 25%i n 2014 on our esti mates.In our vi ew,thi s provi des the i ndustry wi th a strong i ncenti ve to bri ng back projects and acti vi ty,wi th i mprovi ng returns and lower Scope 1&2 e
29、mi ssi ons than the current producti on base.Exhibit 21:Almost a decade of energy under-investment has pushed the oil industry to halve its resource life since 2014.Top Projects reserve l ife,by year of report and breakeven Exhibit 22:.with the last five years seeing negative resource revisions whic
30、h marks the end of the great resource expansion of 2009-16 Total l iquids reserves discovered/accessed by year,based on Top Projects 055002000020202120222023EProduction(mn b/d)Reserve life(years)Producing$30$30-$40$40-$50$50-$60$60-$70$70-$80$80
31、+Production(RHS)-45-35-25-15-559992000200042005200620072008200920000022Liquids reserves(bnboe)Shale accessConventional exploration Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research27 J
32、une 2023 8Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023Steepening cost curve:The Top Projects oil cost curve is steepening for the sixth consecutive year Followi ng a decade of resource expansi on that ended i n 2017,thi s years Top Projects edi ti on shows an ongoi ng steepeni ng of the cost curve.Thi s i s dri
33、ven by project delays,capex and opex i nflati on and hi gher taxes.Another dri ver of capi tal effici ency i n the past 5 years has been the i ncreasi ng cost of capi tal for hydrocarbon projects.We esti mate that the hurdle rate for gi ant long-cycle oi l developments has ri sen from 10%i n the 200
34、4-14 cycle,to 15-20%i n recent years.If we apply thi s hi gher cost of capi tal across the Top projects cost curve,the margi nal i ncenti ve pri ce(the 75th percenti le of the cost curve)i s no longer$70/bl,but$80/bl(at 15%hurdle rates)and up to$100/bl(at 20%hurdle rates).Exhibit 23:The oil cost cur
35、ve is steepening for the sixth consecutive year.Top Projects oil cost curve for pre-pl ateau projects through the years Exhibit 24:.as ESG-led higher cost of capital for long-cycle oil developments pushes the incentive price to$80/bl+Top Projects oil cost curve for pre-pl ateau projects at different
36、 costs of capital 0020208010012005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000Breakeven(US$/bl)Cumulative peak oil production(kboe/d)2009200005%cost of capital020406080018020005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000Breakeven(US$/b
37、l)Cumulative peak oil production(kboe/d)$70/bl$80/bl$101/bl75%percentile Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research27 June 2023 9Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023The end of non-OPEC growth:I nvestment revival is not sufficient to push non-OPEC b
38、ack into production growth Our Top Projects bottom-up analysi s suggests that we have entered a structural phase of anaemi c non-OPEC growth,dri ven both by a thi nner pi peli ne of mega-project deli veri es and slower US shale growth.Mega-projects deli very has substanti ally slowed from 2021,seven
39、 years after peak oi l pri ces,as i t di d i n 1987(seven years after the 1980 oi l pri ce peak),as the i ndustry exhausts the development pi peli ne to whi ch i t commi tted i n the supercycle years.We esti mate that the long-cycle developments wi ll only add an average of c700 kbl/d pa over the ne
40、xt five years,whi ch i s barely suffici ent to counter decli ne rates,but not to deli ver net producti on growth,on our esti mates.The downcycle has also accelerated the transformati on of shale i nto a more concentrated(through consoli dati on),cash generati ve(through better logi sti cs,i nfrastru
41、cture,data usage,effici ency,conti guous acreage and scale)and lower growth i ndustry(fewer players targeti ng growth,whi le mature basi ns plateau or decli ne).In 2022 US shale reached i ts local peak wi th the producti on growth recovered from the shale decelerati on observed i n previ ous years.W
42、e saw strong recovery i n shale producti on i n 2022 whi ch we expect to conti nue i n 2023,before moderati ng i n 2024-26.Exhibit 25:The industry re-focus towards brownfield developments is leading to a normalization of decline rates from the elevated levels of 2018-21.YoY oil production change fro
43、m 3rd year post production start of Top Projects fiel ds Exhibit 26:.while project delivery remains challenging Del ivery vs GS estimates on 3yr forward non-OPEC,ex-shal e production-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%2009200000222023E2024E2025Eyoy oil production change f
44、rom 3rd year post production startDeepwaterTraditional-20%-23%-13%-16%-11%-6%2%-13%-14%-10%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Top 330(2011)Top 360(2012)Top 380(2013)Top 400(2014)Top 420(2015)Top 440(2016)Top 2017(2017)Top 2018(2018)Top 2019(2019)Top 2020(2020)Delivery vs GS estimates on 3-yr forward basis(non-O
45、PEC,ex.shale)Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research27 June 2023 0Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023We expect a call on incremental OPEC production as large as 1.6 mn bl/d by 2025,reducing OPEC spare capacity despite the Saudi and UAE capacity
46、 expansions Based on the GS demand base case,we esti mate a call on i ncremental OPEC producti on as large as 1.6 mn bl/d by 2025,from 2022.OPEC,i n li ne wi th the rest of the i ndustry,has made mi ni mal commi tments to i ncremental capaci ty growth over the past seven years and thi s shows i n a
47、small pi peli ne of growth developments.We beli eve thi s wi ll start to change i n 2024,wi th Saudi s planned capaci ty expansi on and the accelerati on of UAE growth plans.Exhibit 27:We expect a tightening oil market,with a c.1.6 mn bl/d incremental call on OPEC by 2025.Key drivers of suppl y grow
48、th from 2022 to 2025E Exhibit 28:.reducing OPEC spare capacity despite the Saudi and UAE capacity expansions OPEC projects yoy oil production growth(kbl/d)99.9 103.9(1.8)2.1 0.7 1.5 1.680859095100105110GlobalSupply2022Net non-OPEC+geological base declineLong-cycle TopProjectsadditionUS shaleaddition
49、-TopProjectsBiofuelsandprocessinggainsImpliedcallon OPEC+2025EDemand GS basecase-50005001,0001,5002,000200000222023E2024E2025E2026E2027EOPEC Projects crude oil yoy growth(kbpd)Saudi ArabiaUAEIraqIranKuwaitNigeriaAngolaAlgeriaCongoEquatorialGabonLibyaVenezu
50、elaNet yoy growth Source:IEA Oil Market Report,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research27 June 2023 Gol dman SachsTop Projects 2023The LNG market should see material volume growth only starting in 2025,mostly from Qatar and North America 2022-23 we
51、re record years for the number of announced LNG projects and LNG FIDs taken,wi th several new projects i n our Top Projects database:Sabi ne Pass LNG expansi on(20 mtpa capaci ty),Corpus Chri sti Trai ns 8&9 expansi on(3 mtpa),Altami ra LNG(4.2 mtpa).Our analysi s suggests that the lack of LNG i nve
52、stments i n 2014-17 and the persi stent delays i n project sancti ons wi ll keep the LNG market ti ght unti l 2025-26 wi th LNG producti on growth of only c.15 Mtpa i n 2023-24E,vs.20-40 Mtpa i n 2017-22,leavi ng a potenti al LNG supply gap before the next wave of LNG projects comes onstream from 20
53、25E,wi th a major role for Qatar and North Ameri ca LNG exports.The ti ghtness i n the gas market that was observed i n 2022 di ssi pated i n 2023 dri ven by warm wi nter,ample i nventori es and laggi ng Chi na and European i ndustri al demand,and whi le taki ng longer-than-expected,our economi sts
54、expect sequenti al recovery i n Chi na acti vi ty and gas demand throughout the year dri vi ng balances ti ghtly goi ng i nto next wi nter.The aut hors of t his report would like t o t hank Anast asia Shalaeva for her significant cont ribut ion t o t his report.Exhibit 29:The LNG market has a tighte
55、ning window in 2023-24E,before new supply comes in 2025-26E.Annual increase in LNG production and capacity in mtpa Exhibit 30:.driven by Qatar and the North America LNG vol ume additions in mtpa by devel opment status 00200000222023E2024E2025E20
56、26E2027EmtpaCapacity additionProduction growth055404550200000222023E2024E2025E2026E2027ELNG capacity addition(mtpa)USAustraliaMozambiqueSenegalNigeriaQatarPapua New GuineaCanadaOthersRussiaSource:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment ResearchSource:
57、Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research27 June 2023 Discl osure Appendix Reg AC We,Mi chele Della Vi gna,CFA,Yuli a Bocharni kova,Nei l Mehta,Umang Choudhary,Ni khi l Bhandari,Ati Modak,Henry Meyer and Bruno Amori m,CFA,hereby certi fy that all of the vi ews expressed i n thi s report accurately
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62、rd-looki ng sales growth,EBITDA growth and EPS growth(for financi al stocks,only EPS and sales growth),wi th a hi gher percenti le i ndi cati ng a hi gher growth company.Financial Returns i s based on a stocks forward-looki ng ROE,ROCE and CROCI(for financi al stocks,only ROE),wi th a hi gher percen
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136、estment deci si ons that are i nconsi stent wi th the recommendati ons or vi ews expressed i n thi s research.27 June 2023 76Gol dman SachsThe analysts named i n thi s report may have from ti me to ti me di scussed wi th our cli ents,i ncludi ng Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders,or may di scuss
137、 i n thi s report,tradi ng strategi es that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term i mpact on the market pri ce of the equi ty securi ti es di scussed i n thi s report,whi ch i mpact may be di recti onally counter to the analysts publi shed pri ce target expectati ons for such stock
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