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1、 EUR 31807 EN 2 0 2 4 Early stage technologies in the field of Energy Eulaerts,O.,Grabowska,M.,Bergamini,M.ISSN 1831-9424 CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY OBSERVATORY rvice.It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process.The contents of this publication do not necess
2、arily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission.Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publica
3、tion for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services,users should contact the referenced source.The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal s
4、tatus of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Contact information Name:Eulaerts Olivier Address:European Commission 1049 Brussels-Belgium Email:olivier.eulaertsec.europa.eu EU Science Hub https:/joint-research-centre.e
5、c.europa.eu JRC135619 EUR 31807 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-68-11357-8 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/711 KJ-NA-31-807-EN-N Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2024 European Union,2024 The reuse policy of the European Commission documents is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of
6、12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents(OJ L 330,14.12.2011,p.39).Unless otherwise noted,the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International(CC BY 4.0)licence(https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).This means that reuse is allowed pro
7、vided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated.How to cite this report:Eulaerts,O.D.,Grabowska,M.and Bergamini,M.,Early stage technologies in the field of Energy,Publications Office of the European Union,Luxembourg,2024,doi:10.2760/711,JRC135619.i Contents Abstract.1 Executive Summa
8、ry.2 Foreword on the Clean Energy Technology Observatory.4 Acknowledgements.5 1.Introduction.6 1.1 Technology foresight.6 1.2 Methodology.7 2.Description of the Weak signals related to Energy.15 2.1 Weak signals related to Batteries.15 2.2 Weak signals related to Biomass.22 2.3 Weak signals related
9、to Carbon Capture,Utilisation and Storage.22 2.4 Weak signals related to District Heating.23 2.5 Weak signals related to Energy Storage.25 2.6 Weak signals related to Geothermal.33 2.7 Weak signals related to Ocean Energy.34 2.8 Weak signals related to Photovoltaics.34 2.9 Weak signals related to Re
10、newable Fuels.38 2.10 Weak signals related to Smart Grid.40 2.11 Weak signals related to Solar Fuels.42 2.12 Weak signals related to Wind Energy.44 2.13 Miscellaneous weak signals.45 3.Discussion.49 4.Conclusions.56 5.List of acronyms.57 5.Annexes.58 Annex 1:List of weak signals with search query.58
11、 Annex 2:List of all raw weak signals reconstructed in TIM Technology.63 Annex 3-RTA by country for weak signals(by CETO categories).82 1 Abstract Within the context of the Clean Energy Technology Observatory,77 emerging technologies related to Energy have been detected using a hybrid approach that
12、combines text mining with expert knowledge.The report provides a concise description of these 77 technologies,including key indicators.Furthermore,the report includes a short analysis outlining the involvement of public and private entities,patenting activity,and the relative performance of major ec
13、onomies(EU,US,CN,KR,JP)in these emerging technologies.2 Executive Summary Detecting and understanding emerging technologies enables policymakers to make informed decisions about regulation,funding allocation,and strategic planning.Such foresight activity allows them to create a policy framework that
14、 is conducive to the development and widespread adoption of these technologies.Considering the potential of certain technologies to significally alter the economic landscape and disrupt markets,establishing a sound regulatory evironment is crucial as it can support the creation of new business and j
15、ob opportunities,and drive economic growth and competitiveness in the global market.It is equally important for policymakers to anticipate and address the broader implications of these technologies,including ethical considerations,societal impact,environmental sustainability,and public health and sa
16、fety concerns.Additionally,emerging technologies carry significant implications for national and EU security technological sovereignty.By addressing these complex challenges from the onset,policymakers can strike a balance that promotes technological advancement while ensuring the welfare and securi
17、ty of society.For the present exercise,a process that integrates the JRC TIM Technology software with expert knowledge was used.This approach involves the use of customized text mining and keyword extraction techniques,as well as novelty indicators,to identify technology weak signals from two docume
18、nt corpuses:the Scopus database of scientific publications from Elsevier and the Patstat database of patents from the European Patent Office,both from 1996 onwards.Throughout the process,expert knowledge was leveraged to enhance the recall of relevant documents related to the identified technologies
19、 and validate the list of potential weak signals.As a result of this process,77 early stage technologies related to the field of Energy have been detected and are presented in this report.Environmental considerations and the transition to renewable energy sources appear to drive the development of m
20、ost of the identified early stage technologies as many of these directly relate to energy storage and to photovoltaics.The analysis reveals that public research organisations play a crucial role in fundamental research on these early stage technologies,as evidenced by their prominent contribution to
21、 scholarly publications.As these technologies mature and progress towards the patenting phase,the engagement of private companies increases,as reflected by their larger share of patent filings.When it comes to specialization,the revealed technological advantage(RTA)index1 indicates that Europe is mo
22、re specialized in areas such as carbon capture,sequestration and utilization,district heating and wind energy,compared to other major economies.At the same time,European organisations are less focused on R&D in technologies related to batteries,geothermal energy,solar fuels,energy storage and smart
23、grids,as evidenced by fewer patents and scientific publications,and lower RTA index values.In contrast,China and South Korea emerge as frontrunners in most of these technologies,whereas Japan and,surprisingly,the US,do not show high levels of specialisation in any category.A dashboard has been set u
24、p in TIM Technology to allow further exploration of the 77 early stage technologies2.1 This index is adapted from the OECD definition of the RTA and gives an indication of the relative specialisation of a country in a weak signal.See point 5 page 13 for more details.2 http:/www.timanalytics.eu/TimTe
25、chPublic2/dashboard/index.jsp#/space/s2185?ds=298852 3 4 Foreword on the Clean Energy Technology Observatory The European Commission set up the Clean Energy Technology Observatory(CETO)in 2022 to help address the complexity and multi-faced character of the transition to a climate-neutral society in
26、e policies create a necessity to tackle related challenges in a comprehensive manner,recognizing the important role for advanced technologies/innovation in the process.CETO is a joint initiative of the European Commission Joint Research Centre(JRC),who run the observatory,and Directorate Generals Re
27、search and Innovation(R&I)and Energy(ENER)on the policy side.Its overall objectives are to:-monitor the EU research and innovation activities on clean energy technologies needed for the delivery of the European Green Deal -assess the competitiveness of the EU clean energy sector and its positioning
28、in the global energy market -build on:existing Commission studies,relevant information/knowledge in Commission services/agencies,the Low Carbon Energy Observatory(2015-2020)-publish reports on the Strategic Energy Technology Plan(SET-Plan)online platform CETO provides a repository of techno-and soci
29、o-economic data on the most relevant technologies and their integration in the energy system.It targets in particular the status and outlook for innovative solutions as well as the sustainable market uptake of both mature and inventive technologies.The progress reports on competitiveness of clean en
30、ergy technologies.It also supports the implementation and development of EU research and innovation policy.The observatory produces a series of annual reports addressing the following themes:-Clean Energy Technology Status,Value Chains and Market:covering advanced biofuels,batteries,bioenergy,carbon
31、 capture utilisation and storage,concentrated solar power and heat,geothermal heat and power,heat pumps,hydropower&pumped hydropower storage,novel electricity and heat storage technologies,ocean energy,photovoltaics,renewable fuels of non-biological origin(other),renewable hydrogen,solar fuels(direc
32、t)and wind(offshore and onshore).-Clean Energy Technology System Integration:building-related technologies,digital infrastructure for smart energy system,industrial and district heat&cold management,standalone systems,transmission and distribution technologies,smart cities and innovative energy carr
33、iers and supply for transport.-Foresight for Future Clean Energy Technologies using Weak Signal Analysis-Clean Energy Outlooks:Analysis and Critical Review-System Modelling for Clean Energy Technology Scenarios-Overall Strategic Analysis of Clean Energy Technology Sector More details are available o
34、n the CETO web pages 5 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the following JRC colleagues for their contribution to the report.In no particular order:Nicolae Scarlat,Marco Buffi,Anatoli Chatzipanagi,Juan Carlos Roca Reina,Anca Itul,Jonathan Volt,Emanuele Quaranta,Charles Macmillan,Nigel T
35、aylor.Authors Olivier Eulaerts,Marcelina Grabowska,Michela Bergamini.6 1.Introduction 1.1 Technology foresight Technology foresight plays a crucial role in identifying new emerging technologies that have the potential to reshape or disrupt society and markets.In an era marked by accelerating technol
36、ogical change and hyperconnectivity,early awareness of disrupting technologies and of new scientific breakthroughs is of strategic importance for the timely development of innovation policies aimed at promoting both a stable business environment and a safe,secure society for citizens3,4,5.Early tech
37、nology awareness is especially relevant in the context of Energy and Climate policies,the effective design and implementation of which might be disrupted by shifts in the technological frontier6.Proactively shaping policies not only guides and frames the development of emerging technologies but can
38、also catalyze the generation of new knowledge and markets7 and increase EU technological sovereignty.In the context of Energy and Climate policies,it will help to achieve decarbonization goals and to establish a sustainable and resilient energy future for the EU.To no surprise,forward-looking initia
39、tives have increasingly played a pivotal role in policy-making processes since the 1990s8.Among other methods,technology foresight has gained substantial momentum and now holds a central position in supporting policy-making mechanisms,particularly in areas heavily impacted by the rapid evolution of
40、new technologies and innovations.Many techniques can be applied to perfom technology foresight,from interactive and creative processes involving scientists,technologists,futurologists,or other experts,to sophisticated data analytics processes.In the last decades,there has been growing interest among
41、 academics in the identification of emerging technologies through the use of data9.Bibliometrics techniques are often used in that context as they enable researchers to explore,organize and analyse large amounts of 10.These techniques apply mathematical and statistical methods to scientific publicat
42、ions,books and other media11 and are used extensively in the quest for detecting emerging technologies12,13.Other scientometric approaches use for example patent databases to detect the emergence and maturation of technologies14,15,text mining of online news articles from the Web16,network 3 Bakhtin
43、,P.,Saritas,O.,Chulok,A.et al.Trend monitoring for linking science and strategy Scientometrics 111,20592075(2017).4 Martin,B.R.,Technology Analysis&Strategic Management,Volume 7,Issue 2,1 January 1995,Pages 139-168,Foresight in Science and Technology.5 Henry Small,Kevin W.Boyack,Richard Klavans,Iden
44、tifying emerging topics in science and technology,Research Policy,Volume 43,Issue 8,2014,Pages 1450-1467.6 OECD,Energy and Climate Policy:Bending the Technological Trajectory,OECD Studies on Environmental Innovation,OECD Publishing(2012)7 Martin,B.R.(1995).Foresight in science and technology.Technol
45、ogy Analysis and Strategic Management,7(2),139168.8 I.Miles,The development of technology foresight:a review,Technol.Forecast.Soc.Change,77(9)(2010),pp.1448-1456.9 Rotolo,D.,Hicks,D.,&Martin,B.R.(2015).What is an emerging technology?.Research policy,44(10),1827-1843.10 M.J.Norton,Introductory concep
46、ts in information science;Information Today Inc.,for the American Society for Information Science,Medford,NJ:2000,v,127,3 pp.11 Pritchard A.,Statistical bibliography or bibliometrics?,Journal of Documentation,25(4)(1969),pp.348-349 12 John Mingers,Loet Leydesdorff;A review of theory and practice in
47、scientometrics,European Journal of Operational Research,Volume 246,Issue 1,2015,Pages 1-19.13 Abercrombie,R.K.,Udoeyop,A.W.&Schlicher,B.G.A study of scientometric methods to identify emerging technologies via modeling of milestones.Scientometrics 91,327342(2012).14 Changyong Lee,Ohjin Kwon,Myeongjun
48、g Kim,Daeil Kwon,Early identification of emerging technologies:A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators,Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Volume 127,2018,Pages 291-303.15 Liu,S.J.,&Shyu,J.(1997).Strategic planning for technology development with patent analysis.Internat
49、ional journal of technology management,13(5-6),661-680.16 Janghyeok Yoon,Detecting weak signals for long-term business opportunities using text mining of Web news,Expert Systems with Applications,Volume 39,Issue 16,2012,p.12543-12550.7 analysis17,18,the use of information extracted from the internet
50、19,other alternative data sources like social media20,or mixed approaches bining citations indicators and count of online clicks on scientific publications platforms to determine the prominence of scientific topics21,22.The JRC initiated the development of an in-house quantitative process for techno
51、logy foresight in 201823,24,25.This data-driven approach is designed to identify early signs of emerging technologies and scientific developments(often called weak signals26)using a mix of text mining techniques and scientometric indicators derived from a corpus of peer-reviewed scientific publicati
52、ons,patents and EU R&D projects27,28,29.Methods to extract weak signals and predict the emergence of new technologies based on text mining techniques remain subject of ongoing exploration within the academic community,for example with some recent attempts at developing predictive models of emergence
53、 based on the analysis of keywords occurence over time30.1.2 Methodology 1.2.1 Data Two sets of data have been used to detect early stage technologies:scientific publications(Scopus database of scientific publications from Elsevier31 dating 01/1996 to 04/2023)and patents(Spring 2023 edition of Patst
54、at32 from the European Patent Office).The underlying assumption is that promising technological developments in a specific domain are typically accompanied by a noticeable surge in the number of scientific publications or patents fillings(as illustrated in Figure 1).When signals are reconstructed in
55、 TIM Technology(see below),a third database is used in addition to Scopus and Patstat:Cordis33,the repository of EU funded R&D projects and activities.17 Huang,L.,Chen,X.,Ni,X.,Liu,J.,Cao,X.,&Wang,C.(2021).Tracking the dynamics of co-word networks for emerging topic identification.Technological Fore
56、casting and Social Change,170,120944.18 Fefie Dotsika,Andrew Watkins,Identifying potentially disruptive trends by means of keyword network analysis,Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Volume 119,2017,p.114-127,ISSN 0040-1625,19 Dirk Thorleuchter,Dirk Van den Poel,Weak signal identification w
57、ith semantic web mining,Expert Systems with Applications,Volume 40,Issue 12,2013,Pages 4978-4985,SSN 0957-4174.20 X.Zhou et al.,Identifying and Assessing Innovation Pathways for Emerging Technologies:A Hybrid Approach Based on Text Mining and Altmetrics,in IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management
58、,vol.68,no.5,pp.1360-1371,Oct.2021.21 https:/joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2018-06/fta2018-paper-b3-rota.pdf 22 Alan L.Porter,Denise Chiavetta,Nils C.Newman,Measuring tech emergence:A contest,Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Volume 159,2020.23 Eulaerts O.,Joanny G.,Giral
59、di J.,Fragkiskos S.,Perani S.,Weak signals in Science and Technologies-2019 Report,EUR 29900 EN,Publications Office of the European Union,Luxembourg,ISBN 978-92-76-12386-6.24 Eulaerts O.,Joanny G.,Perani S.,Weak signals in Science and Technologies 2019-Analysis and recommendations,EUR 30061 EN,Publi
60、cations Office of the European Union,Luxembourg.25 Eulaerts et al,Weak signals in Science and Technologies Weak signals in 2020,EUR 30714 EN,Publications Office of the European Union,Luxembourg.26 Mari Holopainen,Marja Toivonen,Weak signals:Ansoff today,Futures,Volume 44,Issue 3,2012,Pages 198-205,2
61、7 G.Joanny,S.Perani,O.Eulaerts,Detection of disruptive technologies by automated identification of weak signals in technology development.Proceedings of the ISSI,International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics(2019),pp.2644-2645.28 A.Moro,E.Boelman,G.Joanny,J.L.Garcia,A bibliometric-based
62、technique to identify emerging photovoltaic technologies in a comparative assessment with expert review,Renewable Energy,123(2018),pp.407-416 29 A.Moro,G.Joanny,C.Moretti,Emerging technologies in the renewable energy sector:a comparison of expert review with a text mining software,Futures,117(2020).
63、30 Taehyun Ha,Heyoung Yang,Sungwha Hong,Automated weak signal detection and prediction using keyword network clustering and graph convolutional network,Futures,Volume 152,2023.31 https:/ 32 https:/www.epo.org/fr/searching-for-patents/business/patstat#:text=PATSTAT%20vous%20aide%20%C3%A0%20effectuer,
64、juridiques%20en%20mati%C3%A8re%20de%20brevets.&text=PATSTAT%20contient%20des%20donn%C3%A9es%20brevets,grands%20pays%20industriels%20et%20d%C3%A9velopp%C3%A9s.33 https:/cordis.europa.eu/fr 8 1.2.2 TIM Technology The software used for the present exercise,created and developed by the JRC,is an advance
65、d monitoring system called TIM Technology.This system integrates science,technology and innovation data from several data sources including Scopus,PATSTAT and Cordis.This platform is designed to track the development of both established and emerging technologies,using semantic analysis,robust data m
66、ining,and sophisticated data visualization techniques.TIM Technology assesses activity levels,such as R&D articles and patents,and uncovers collaboration patterns and technological evolution.It has the capability to track the progression of keywords over time and across different domains.Additionall
67、y,TIM employs network analysis to detect events related to technology change by identifying,clustering,and visualizing intricate relationships and connections among topics,institutions,and countries or regions.1.2.3 Detection of raw weak signals The detection of weak signals relies on a text-mining
68、generated dictionary of multi-words concepts which is built using the corpus of scientific publications and patent documents retrieved from Scopus and Patstat respectively.Single and compound words as well as acronyms are extracted from the title,abstract and keyword fields in the reference corpus.T
69、o capture the most recent vocabulary used in scientific publications,documents from the last seven years(2016-04/2023)of the Scopus database(12 million scientific publications)are used to compile the dictionary.The extracted words are subsequently processed to group instances of the same concept,rem
70、ove inconsistencies such as spelling or wording variations,rank the concepts by relevance using a modified TFIDF34 method,and store them in the dictionary.For the present exercise,the resulting dictionary was composed of around 8 millions concepts.A similar process is applied to the corpus of patent
71、s,using the last 5 years of Patstat to build the dictionary.This dictionary is used to build document collections through two complementary processes.In the first one,referred to as the all keywords from the dictionnary are used in individual search queries to build collections of documents that are
72、 then ranked and selected according to various indicators.In the second process,referred to as the targeted targeted searches are made directly in TIM Technology to build specific collections of documents that are then explored through various functionalities.Signals detected through these two proce
73、sses are then reconstructed in TIM technology35 for final validation.1.2.3.1 process Each keyword contained in the above described dictionary is used in an automated semantic query process that builds an equivalent number of document collections.Each query retrieves scientific publications,patents,a
74、nd EU-funded projects dating from 01/1996 to 04/202336.A custom-built indicator called activeness is then used to rank the datasets obtained by the automated query process.This indicator is defined as the ratio between the number of documents retrieved for a certain period and the total number of do
75、cuments retrieved for the full period 34 Term Frequency,Inverse Document Frequency is a measure of importance of a word/concept to a document in a collection or corpus,adjusted for the fact that some concepts appear more frequently.For each of these concepts,the Inverse Document Frequency(IDF)is cal
76、culated:IDF=log(number of documents with the concept/total number of documents)The idea behind the IDF calculation is that more weight is given to the terms that are rarer.In TIM Technology,a ranking is then calculated as follow:Ranking=frequency x IDF x mod_field where frequency is the number of ti
77、mes the concept appears in the dataset and mod_field is a modifier that gives more or less weight to the terms depending on where they are found(title,abstract or keyword).In this specific case,the modifier is calculated as follows:Title:1 Abstract:0.5 Keyword:2 This is made so that the more“importa
78、nt”words are attributed a higher rank.35 https:/knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/text-mining/tim_technology_editor_en 36 Detecting weak signals implies looking into the past to verify novelty.9 01/1996-04/202337.A high activeness score means that a high percentage of the documents in the dataset have b
79、een published during the selected period.Activeness indicators covering different periods are used to detect raw weak signals in Scopus and Patstat38.The underlying assumption is that datasets of scientific articles or patents with a high activeness score are related to emerging topics in science or
80、 emerging technologies.used to isolate raw weak signals on specific topics.This indicator is defined as the percentage of documents in which a specific text value appears in specific fields,such as title,abstract,journal categories,Cooperative Patent Classification(CPC)codes.The coverage indicator t
81、hus allows to prioritize raw weak signals that exhibit a certain threshold of relevance,as determined by the occurrence of selected keywords.For instance,in a scenario where the focus is on advancements in photovoltaic technology,the coverage indicator can be calibrated to highlight only those signa
82、ls where at least 50%of the documents feature the term photovoltaic within their titles.The outcome of the large process consists of lists of document collections ordered by activeness,which serve as the raw data to identify raw weak signals.Figure 1:Typical shape of a weak signal on a graph#documen
83、ts(Y-axis)Vs years(X-axis).The graphic shows the The sudden increase of the number of scientific articles over the last years indicates emergence.Source:TIM Technology,search query:topic:(s scheme heterojunction2)1.2.3.2 Targeted process In this process,targeted semantic searches are made in TIM Tec
84、hnology to collect a maximum of documents for each specific topic.The selection of potential raw weak signals is made by analysing lists of extracted keywords ranked by activeness 2020-2023,for each of the datasets.Some of the specific topics covered by CETO have also been used directly for weak sig
85、nals detection(see Tables 1 and 2 below).Various types of keywords are available in TIM Technology and can be used to detect weak signals.Author keywords,but also keywords calculated with the following algorithms:automatic KW,KPminer,37 For example,the indicator activeness2020-2022 corresponds to th
86、e ratio#documents published during the period 2020-2022/#documents published during the period 1996-2022 38 An activeness indicator for patent is usually slightly shifted to the past to account for the 18 months grace period inherent to the patent process e.g.activeness 18-20 will be used for analys
87、is made in 2021 10 TextRank,PositionRank,Yake,Rake39,40,41,42,43,44,45.The selection of potential raw weak signals is made by evaluating the activeness indicator for the various keywords,for each of the targeted semantic search.The implementation of sophisticated keywords extraction algorithms like
88、KPminer,Textrank,Position Rank,Yake and Rake,allowed to reduce the noise in the lists of calculated keywords(e.g.stop words,ambiguous words,jargons pecific words,fluff words,filler phrases,misspelings).In particular,the TextRank and PositionRank methods significantly decrease the level of noise,whic
89、h facilitates the analysis and selection of potential weak signals.The outcome of the targeted process consists in lists of keywords ordered by activeness,which are then reconstructed in TIM Technology and reviewed by analysts to isolate raw weak signals.1.2.3.3 Additional focused searches To furthe
90、r detect potential raw signals,several additional targeted searches have also been made for some subtopics that have been detected during the analysis of the potential raw weak signals obtained by the two processes e.g.solid-state batteries or termochemical energy storage(table 3).The lists of keywo
91、rds are then reviewed using the activeness indicator to detect the most novel concepts for each document collection,and each potential weak signal is reconstructed in TIM Technology for further analysis and validation.1.2.3.4 Processes and searches The three tables below list the searches and type o
92、f processes that have been used to build the initial set of 280 raw weak signals(see annex 1 for this list).Emerging technologies suggested by JRC experts have also been added to the list of potential raw weak signals.39“Emerging technologies in the renewable energy sector:A comparison of expert rev
93、iew with a text mining software”,Alberto Moro,Geraldine Joanny,Christian Moretti;Futures Volume 117,2020,102511,ISSN 0016-3287.40 “PositionRank:An Unsupervised Approach to Keyphrase Extraction from Scholarly Documents,Corina Florescu and Cornelia Caragea,Computer Science and Engineering,University o
94、f North Texas,USA.”https:/www.cs.uic.edu/cornelia/papers/acl17.pdf 41“Bringing Order into Texts”,Rada Mihalcea and Paul Tarau,Department of Computer Science,University of North Texas https:/ 42“Biased TextRank:Unsupervised Graph-Based Content Extraction”,Ashkan Kazemi,Veronica Perez-Rosas,Rada Mihal
95、cea,Department of Computer Science&Engineering,University of Michigan,Ann Arbor”-https:/arxiv.org/abs/2011.01026 43 “KP-Miner:A keyphrase extraction system for English and Arabic documents”,Samhaa R.El-Beltagy a,Ahmed Rafea”-Information Systems,Volume 34,Issue 1,March 2009,Pages 132-144 44 “YAKE!Key
96、word extraction from single documents using multiple local features”.Ricardo Campos,Vtor Mangaravite,Arian Pasquali,Alpio Jorge,Clia Nunes,Adam Jatowt Information Sciences 509(2020)pages 257289 45 “Automatic Keyword Extraction from Individual Documents.Text Mining:Applications and Theory.1”;Rose,Stu
97、art&Engel,Dave&Cramer,Nick&Cowley,Wendy.(2010):-20.10.1002/9780470689646.ch1.11 Table 1:Processes and searches used for detecting raw weak signals using scientific publications.Table 2:Processes and searches used for detecting raw weak signals using patents.12 Table 3:search queries for subtopics.1.
98、2.3.5 Reconstruction of raw weak signals in TIM Technology To arrive at the final selection of weak signals,new sets of documents are created for each of the 280 promising raw weak signals in the TIM Technology system which,in addition to scientific publications and patents,also contains EU R&D gran
99、ts.This phase involves extensive manual work as well as expert validation to maximize the recall of relevant documents.This involves optimising the search queries to increase the recall of documents by e.g.including synonyms and alternative wording that are commonly used within the field,and to furt
100、her validate the list of signals by analysing the documents they contain.Because of the semantic nature of the process,it may be that what was initially identified as a weak signal appears in reality to be a strong signal(e.g.a well-established trend or a long-known issue).For example,a new term or
101、semantic concept can appear in the context of a technology after a few years,creating the appearance of novelty although the technology itself is not new.False positives can also include typographical errors or references to specific conference names.Domain knowledge can be used to enrich the search
102、 queries for a particular scientific area or policy field.For the present exercise,experts from JRC have been consulted to improve the search queries.1.2.3.6 Selection of the Weak Signals After careful revision and improvement of the queries for the 280 raw weak signals,the selection of weak signals
103、 has been made using two criteria:-raw weak signals with activeness2020-2023 between 70%and 100%have been automatically considered as weak signals.-raw weak signals activeness2020-2023 between 50%and 70%but with a strong increase of the number of scientific publications over the last three years hav
104、e been added to the list of weak signals as well.As a result,77 weak signals were selected and are presented in this report.They are listed in Table 4 below,grouped by CETO categories.13 1.2.3.7 Description of the Weak Signals Chapter 2 of this report presents the 77 weak signals detected.In additio
105、n to a short description,five visualisations are provided for each signal:1.A time series of the documents behind each weak signal,including 6 document types:scientific articles,book chapter,conference proceedings,patents,EU projects,review papers.The colour coding is the same for all weak signals.F
106、igure 2 2.Top 5 Organisations worldwide,based on the number of documents(minimum 2 documents).3.Top 5 organisations in EU(27 Member States),based on the number of documents.4.Share of public institutions(universities,governmental organisations and research centres)and of private entities(companies,f
107、undations).5.Revealed Technological Advantage(RTA),adapted to weak signals,for the United States,Japan,China,Korea,and the EU(27 Member States).This index is adapted from the OECD definition of the RTA46 and gives an indication of the relative specialisation of a country in a weak signal.It is based
108、 to zero when the country holds no scientific publications in a given weak signal,is equal to 1 when specialisation is observed.46 OECD(2023),OECD Science,Technology and Industry Outlook:Revealed technology advantage in selected fields,OECD Science,Technology and R&D Statistics(database),https:/doi.
109、org/10.1787/data-00673-en 14 Table 4:List of weak signals(with the value for activeness 2020-2023).15 2.Description of the weak signals related to Energy 2.1 Weak signals related to Batteries Zinc CO2 batteries These batteries operate on the principles of electrochemical reactions involving zinc as
110、the anode material and carbon dioxide as the cathode material.They have gained attention for their potential advantages:high energy density,abundance and low cost materials,low environmental impact,long life cycle,carbon capture,high safety;scalability,fast charging/discharging,ease to integration t
111、o the grid,versatility for applications ranging from portable electronics to stationary energy storage.Still at laboratory stage,Zinc CO2 batteries might become a sustainable energy storage solution for the future.Quasi-solid-state Li-metal batteries This type of battery is an advanced Li-ion batter
112、y technology that incorporates a solid or gel-like electrolyte material,to replace or enhance the traditional liquid electrolyte found in conventional Li-ion batteries.These batteries offer several advantages due to their unique design:enhanced safety,high energy density,longer life cycle,a wide ope
113、rating temperature range,a reduced risk of dendrite formation,improved fast charging,flexibility in their design,and use of more environmentally friendly materials.There are still challenges to address related to manufacturing scalability,cost reduction,and further improving their performance and sa
114、fety.16 Aqueous Zinc batteries These use a water-based electrolyte and offer several advantages that make them attractive for various applications.They are safer compared to other chemistries and are cost-effective(zinc is abundant and relatively low-cost).They have the potential for high energy den
115、sity,a low self-discharge rate and can endure many rapid charge/discharge cycles.Their durability,long cycle life,and ability to withstand harsh conditions make them suitable for remote and off-grid applications(telecommunications towers,remote sensors).Finally,they are considered environmentally fr
116、iendly due to their water-based electrolyte and the high recyclability of zinc.Various aqueous zinc batteries are being investigated e.g.zinc-nickel batteries,zinc-iron batteries,zinc-manganese batteries,zinc-air batteries,zinc-silver batteries,zinc-chlorine flow batteries,zinc-Manganese dioxide flo
117、w batteries,zinc-cerium batteries.Potassium metal batteries They use potassium as the anode material and are interesting for energy storage applications due to:potential for high energy density,abundant and low-cost material(potassium),high charge and discharge rates for rapid energy transfer and hi
118、gh-power performance,low self-discharge rate,increased safety compared to other types of batteries,and finally,potassium is a more environmentally friendly material compared to some other metals used in batteries,such as lithium or cobalt.Research is ongoing to avoid the formation of dendrites,incre
119、ase electrolyte compatibility,and optimize production costs.As the technology matures,it has the potential to become a competitive energy storage solution for various industries and applications.17 Flexible zinc-ion batteries They are a promising energy storage technology for various applications,pa
120、rticularly those requiring flexibility,lightweight design,and safe operation.These batteries are indeed lightweight and can conform to various shapes and sizes without compromising their performance,which is particularly valuable for applications like wearable electronics where traditional rigid bat
121、teries are impractical.They are also safer and have a lower environmental impact than some other battery chemistries,such as lithium-ion batteries.As zinc is affordable and relatively abundant,zinc-ion batteries are also cost-effective.This is still an emerging battery type,which requires research t
122、o optimise their performance (notably to improve the energy density)and explore new applications.Human-robot collaboration in battery recycling This involves assisting humans with robotic systems to enhance the recycling process of batteries.This collaboration offers various advantages:increased saf
123、ety(robots can handle hazardous materials),improved efficiency(continuous,precise robotic work),better quality control,and the ability to collect and analyse data.Robots bring flexibility,scalability,and adaptability to recycling operations,and they help reduce the environmental impact of batteries
124、by recovering valuable materials.Additionally,they address labour shortages,ensuring that recycling facilities can operate effectively even with limited human resources.Small molecule organic cathode This type of cathode material used in batteries consists of relatively simple organic molecules with
125、 low molecular weights.These offer several advantages in battery applications.They provide high energy density(allowing them to store a significant amount of energy)and can be lightweight and flexible,which makes them particularly suitable for applications like portable electronics and electric vehi
126、cles.Additionally,they support fast charge and discharge rates,are customizable,environmentally friendly,and cost-effective.However,they also face challenges when it comes to their long-term stability and research and development are ongoing to address this.18 Zinc Graphite battery These batteries o
127、ffer several advantages particularly in specific applications.They have a low production cost,a long shelf life and because they contain non-toxic materials they can easily be disposed of regular household waste.However,zinc-graphite batteries also have limitations,including lower capacity and perfo
128、rmance compared to more advanced battery technologies like alkaline,nickel-metal hydride(NiMH),and lithium-ion(Li-ion)batteries.Therefore,while zinc-graphite batteries offer advantages in terms of cost and simplicity,additional R&D is needed to make them suitable for high-drain or demanding applicat
129、ions.Retired batteries This refers to batteries that are no longer suitable for their original intended purpose.They have typically undergone numerous charge/discharge cycles and have reduced capacity and overall performance.Their residual capacity makes them nonetheless potentially adequate for les
130、s demanding applications,such as energy storage for stationary systems.Recycling and proper disposal of retired batteries are essential to mitigate environmental impacts and recover valuable materials like lithium,cobalt,and nickel.Recycling can also help reduce the demand for new raw materials and
131、promote sustainability in the battery industry.Dendrite-free lithium-ion batteries Getting rid of dendrite formation is one of the important quests in the development of lithium-ion batteries.Dendrite-free batteries will be safer,more reliable and have an extended lifetime.Dendrites are tiny needle-
132、like structures that can form on the electrodes of certain types of batteries,particularly lithium-ion.Recent efforts in battery research focus on preventing dendrite formation through the use of e.g.advanced materials or improved battery designs.The absence of dendrites would significantly reduce t
133、he risk of short circuits and thermal runaway,making batteries much safer,particularly in applications like electric vehicles and consumer electronics.19 Multi-ion batteries A promising type of rechargeable battery that utilises the movement and storage of multiple types of ions,extending beyond tra
134、ditional lithium-ion batteries.Their advantages include a higher energy density,faster charging and discharging rates,and a reduced risk of lithium dendrite formation.They also use materials that are both abundant and ecologically responsible.Their characteristics make them suitable for a variety of
135、 applications,including electric vehicles,renewable energy storage,and grid-scale energy storage.Lithium-Carbon Dioxide batteries An experimental battery technology with several potential advantages:high energy density,the use CO2 from the atmosphere,showing therefore potential for carbon capture an
136、d utilization.Li-CO2 batteries can offer a long cycle life(many charge/discharge)and can be used in various applications,from storing intermittent renewable energy to powering portable electronics and electric vehicles.Li-CO2 batteries are still in the R&D phase,and many technical challenges need to
137、 be addressed before they can be widely adopted(e.g.improving CO2 reduction,ensuring safety in practical applications).Dual-ion batteries A specific type of multi-ion battery technology that uses two different types of ions(usually lithium and one other).These batteries offer several advantages:pote
138、ntially higher energy density and faster charging/discharging rates,improved cycle life,and reduced environmental impact through the use of eco-friendly materials.They also tend to generate less heat during operation and mitigate issues such as lithium dendrite formation,enhancing overall safety.Dua
139、l-ion batteries are still in the R&D phase,and their wide adoption may take some time.20 Aluminium-sulphur batteries Experimental rechargeable battery systems that offer several potential advantages like a high energy density,relying on the use of abundant and sustainable materials(aluminium and sul
140、phur),environmental friendliness due the use of non-toxic and non-flammable components,potential contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions,long cycle life and fast charging/discharging capabilities,and the potential to operate efficiently at high temperatures.However,R&D is still ongoing to
141、 address issues like cathode degradation and more suitable electrolytes.Zinc-air batteries This type of battery is under development for its various advantages:high energy density,cost-effectiveness and eco-friendliness(zinc is both non-toxic and cheap),long shelf-lie,safety,reliable voltage output
142、throughout the discharge cycle(stable power supply).Non-rechargeable zinc-air batteries find use in various applications,including hearing aids,medical devices,remote sensors,and backup power systems.Researchers are actively exploring the development of rechargeable variants,a promising advancement
143、that would extend their lifespan and reduce waste.Another concern is the limited cycle life in certain designs and the gradual consumption of the zinc anode,fostering research efforts to optimize the technology and expand its applications.Magnesium-sulphur batteries These are a type of rechargeable
144、battery that utilizes magnesium as the anode and sulphur as the cathode,with an electrolyte facilitating ion movement.They have a potential for high energy density,low cost,and environmental friendliness,as magnesium is abundant and non-toxic,and sulphur is also readily available.During discharge,ma
145、gnesium ions migrate from the anode to the cathode,reacting with sulphur to form magnesium sulphide,releasing energy.Rechargeability is achieved by reversing this process.Although still in the R&D phase,the Mg-S battery might become of interest for energy storage applications.21 Lithium argyrodite A
146、 solid-state electrolyte material under investigation for advanced lithium-ion batteries,known for its potential to enhance battery safety and performance.This material conducts lithium ions as a solid-state material,reducing the risk of flammability and thermal issues associated with liquid electro
147、lytes.It can support higher energy density,potentially enabling the use of lithium metal anodes and extending cycle life.Practical implementation is still in the research and development phase,with challenges related to scalability,cost,and electrode interface to be overcome before commercial adopti
148、on.Organic flow batteries This type of flow battery uses organic molecules dissolved in an electrolyte solution to store electrical energy,offering distinct advantages over traditional solid-state batteries.They use two separate tanks for the electrolyte solution,with the energy stored and released
149、by reversible redox reactions in the organic molecules.Organic flow batteries are scalable,adaptable(variety of organic molecules),safe,and environment-friendly.They find applications in e.g.grid-scale energy storage,renewable energy integration,backup power systems,or load shifting within electric
150、grids.Ongoing research focuses on enhancing their energy density and cost-effectiveness to make them more competitive in various energy storage applications.22 2.2 Weak signals related to Biomass Chemical looping gasification This process is used to convert biomass,coal,or natural gas,into high puri
151、ty syngas for the production of clean energy,chemicals,or fuels.When biomass is used,it not only provides a cleaner way to produce syngas but also has the potential to be carbon-neutral when the carbon emissions are captured and stored.The use of biomass in chemical looping gasification aligns with
152、the goals of reducing carbon emissions,promoting sustainable energy production,and minimizing the environmental impact associated with energy and fuel production.It is a promising technology for a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.2.3 Weak signals related to Carbon Capture,Utilisation and S
153、torage Blue hydrogen Name given to hydrogen produced by natural gas through a process called steam methane reforming.The primary advantage of blue H2 is its potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions compared to grey hydrogen.By capturing and storing CO2 emissions,blue hydrogen production pr
154、ocesses can achieve a much lower carbon footprint,making it an attractive option for industries seeking to decarbonize.Ongoing research efforts focus on making its production more efficient and sustainable while continuing to reduce its carbon footprint(it still relies on natural gas,a finite fossil
155、 resource).The future of blue hydrogen depends on the effective implementation of carbon capture and storage technologies and the availability of suitable storage sites.23 Deep eutectic solvents for Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage This emerging and promising class of materials can be used as
156、absorbents to capture CO2 from flue gas emissions of industrial processes,such as power plants,cement plants,and refineries.The solvents chemically react with CO2,effectively removing it from the exhaust gases.They can also be used in post-combustion carbon capture technologies,where they are used i
157、n contactor columns or packed beds to capture CO2.Deep eutectic solvents require low energy input,have a high CO2 absorption capacity,and have low volatility hence low solvent loss and minimized emissions to the atmosphere.Their properties such as viscosity,density,and polarity,can be adjusted to su
158、it specific conditions to allow not only CO2 capture but also the capture of other industrial gases.They have a low environmental impact and can be regenerated and reused for multiple capture cycles,reducing the overall cost of capture.Practical implementation in large-scale industrial settings may
159、require further refinement and cost reduction.However,the potential of deep eutectic solvent for more sustainable and energy-efficient carbon capture solutions makes them an exciting area of development in CCUS.2.4 Weak signals related to District Heating 5th-Generation District Heating These system
160、s promise to provide efficient,sustainable,and environmentally friendly heating and cooling solutions for urban and rural areas They are characterized by several key features and technologies that differentiate them from earlier generations:low-temperature heat sources,energy efficiency by using adv
161、anced heat exchangers and heat pumps,smart control systems,integration of various heat sources(including renewable sources),storage of excess heat produced during low demand periods,low environmental impact by using renewable and waste heat sources.These systems are cost effective,flexible and scala
162、ble,making them adaptable to different geographical areas and varying energy demands.24 Digital twin for district heating In the field of district heating,a digital twin is a virtual representation of the entire district heating system(physical infrastructure,components,and processes).They are used
163、for a variety of purposes:to enhance the efficiency,reliability,and sustainability of district heating systems(simulation,predictive maintenance,real-time monitoring,demand forecasting,load balancing,etc.).Digital twins play a crucial role in optimizing district heating systems by improving their pe
164、rformance,reducing energy consumption,and enhancing their resilience and sustainability.They are a valuable tool for operators and engineers,helping to meet the increasing demands for efficient and environmentally friendly heating solutions.Urban building energy In the context of district heating,th
165、is refers to the energy needs of buildings within an urban area or city that are supplied with heat or hot water through a district heating system.District heating systems provide centralized heating to multiple buildings within a specific geographic area,typically a city or urban district,through a
166、 network of pipes that distribute hot water or steam from a central heat source,such as a power plant or a dedicated heat generation facility.The concept of urban building energy in the context of district heating is significant for urban planning,energy management,and sustainability efforts in citi
167、es.By optimizing district heating systems and improving the energy efficiency of urban buildings,it is possible to reduce energy consumption,lower greenhouse gas emissions,and enhance the overall sustainability of urban environments.25 2.5 Weak signals related to Energy Storage Zinc Hybrid Supercapa
168、citor This advanced energy storage technology combines the characteristics of a supercapacitor and those of a battery,using zinc-based materials,harnessing the strengths of both to provide high-capacity and high-power energy storage solutions.They have long life cycles,can be charged and discharged
169、rapidly,can operate in a wide temperature range,and are using safe and non-toxic zinc-based materials.In addition,zinc is abundant and environmentally friendly.Recycling options for zinc-based materials are well-established,contributing to the sustainability of zinc hybrid supercapacitors.They can b
170、e used in a wide range of applications,including electric vehicles,renewable energy storage,consumer electronics,and industrial equipment,supplementing or replacing batteries.R&D is ongoing to increase their energy density which is still lower than that of traditional lithium-ion batteries,limiting
171、their use for long-term energy storage.Polyetherimide,a new plastic for energy storage applications This high-performance thermoplastic polymer shows several advantages when used in energy storage applications,particularly in the context of electrochemical energy storage devices like batteries and s
172、upercapacitors.PEI exhibits excellent thermal stability,allowing it to withstand elevated temperatures without degradation,and is highly resistant to a wide range of chemicals,including acids,bases,and organic solvents,making it compatible with various electrolyte solutions and additives.In addition
173、,they have high mechanical strength and maintain their dimensional stability and are excellent electrical insulator,ensuring safe operation of energy storage devices.Their unique properties make them suitable for energy storage applications in aerospace or health.26 Potassium hybrid capacitor This i
174、s an emerging energy storage device that combines features of a traditional capacitor with potassium ions as the charge carriers.Potassium hybrid capacitors are suited for applications where higher energy storage capacity is more important than quick discharge/charge,and where longer cycle life,and
175、safety(they are non-flammable and with a low risk of thermal runaway)are critical.Potassium-based electrolytes are also more environmentally friendly and easier to recycle than materials used in some other energy storage devices.Aqueous hybrid supercapacitors These are advanced energy storage device
176、s combining aqueous electrolyte-based supercapacitors with battery-like electrodes.They typically have one electrode acting as a supercapacitor electrode and another electrode as a battery electrode.This allows aqueous hybrid supercapacitors to store more energy than conventional supercapacitors.The
177、y offer several advantages,making them attractive for various energy storage applications(high power density,long life cycle,fast charging,safety,low cost,reduced self-discharge,to name but a few).R&D is ongoing to increase their energy density to make them suitable for long term storage solutions.M
178、Xene supercapacitors MXenes are two-dimensional nanomaterials with a layered structure,often derived from transition metal carbides,nitrides,or carbonitrides.When used in supercapacitors,they offer several advantages:high energy and power density,rapid charging and discharging,they can endure thousa
179、nds of charge/discharge cycles without significant degradation and demonstrate good stability and low self-discharging over a wide range of operating conditions.They are produced using abundant/non-toxic materials,making them more environmentally friendly than other nanomaterials.They are safe,flexi
180、ble and lightweight and suitable for applications like portable electronics,electric vehicles,grid energy storage,renewable energy systems.27 Potassium Hybrid Supercapacitor This is an emerging energy storage device that combines features of a supercapacitor with potassium ions as charge carriers.Th
181、is technology offers high power density allowing quick energy release,quick charging and high-power performance,in addition to a wide temperature operating range,scalability,and potential for energy harvesting.Potassium-based electrolytes are also more environmentally friendly and easier to recycle
182、than materials used in some other energy storage devices.Electrochromic energy storage These devices can change their optical properties in response to voltage variations,combining energy storage and light modulation capabilities.They dynamically control the amount of sunlight or artificial light en
183、tering a space,saving energy by reducing the need for lighting and heating/cooling.They do not store energy in the traditional sense but they modulate the transmission of light and heat,which has energy-saving effects in building and environmental applications.They can be integrated into smart build
184、ing control systems and use renewable energy sources,enhancing the overall energy efficiency and sustainability of buildings.Hydrogen storage in aquifers Underground storage of H2 within geological formations known as aquifers offers several advantages:extensive storage capacity,allowing for the acc
185、umulation of substantial hydrogen quantities to meet varying energy demands;release of stored H2 during peak demand periods or energy shortages,contributing to grid stability and reliability;utilisation of existing natural infrastructure;decentralization of storage,reducing the requirement for long-
186、distance transportation;low environmental impact when managed responsibly;suitable for long-term energy storage needs.Challenges:the selection of suitable storage sites,infrastructure development,safety protocols,and cost-effectiveness,all of which require ongoing research and development efforts.(S
187、ee also Hydrogen geological storage in others).28 Shared energy storage This refers to a system where multiple users or entities collectively use a centralised energy storage facility or network.One of the advantages is to enable participants to divide initial investment and operational expenses,mak
188、ing energy storage more financially viable.It also optimizes energy use by efficiently balancing energy supply and demand among participants.When connected to a grid,shared energy storage can help with peak shaving and voltage regulation,enhancing grid stability,and facilitate the integration of ren
189、ewable energy sources by storing surplus energy during peak production periods.In case of power outages,it can provide backup power to ensure uninterrupted operations.Additionally,shared energy storage contributes to environmental sustainability by promoting efficient energy use and reducing relianc
190、e on fossil fuels.These systems are scalable,accommodating the needs of a growing number of users,including users without grid access.Some challenges remain for effective management and coordination among participants,like for example ownership models,user agreements,and grid integration.Hydrogen ge
191、ological storage Also known as underground H2 storage or H2 cavern storage,it is a method of storing H2 gas in geological formations below the Earths surface.This solution is particularly adapted to large-scale and seasonal energy storage.Geological formations are stable and can provide long-term st
192、orage solutions with high safety.When H2 is produced using renewable energy sources or through carbon capture and utilization techniques,hydrogen geological storage can be a low-carbon or even zero-carbon energy storage solution.It also leverages existing underground infrastructure,saving costs and
193、repurposing infrastructure for a clean energy future.See also Hydrogen storage in aquifers.29 Energy storage with compressed CO2 This technology uses compressed CO2 to store excess energy,which is advantageous because it can store large quantities of energy,respond rapidly to energy demand,and is en
194、ergy-efficient,especially when waste heat is harnessed.It contributes to reducing greenhouse gases emissions by using surplus renewable energy for compression,supports grid stability,and can be tailored to various applications.Additionally,compressed CO2 energy storage can have a long cycle life(man
195、y charge/discharge)and can potentially use existing infrastructure for CO2 storage,making it a versatile and environmentally compatible energy storage solution.Metal Organic Framework Supercapacitor MOF supercapacitors are a type of energy storage device that combines the high surface area and tunea
196、ble properties of metal-organic frameworks with supercapacitor technology.Their advantages include their ability to store a large amount of electrical charge due to MOFs high surface area,tuneable properties that allow optimisation for specific applications,enhanced energy storage capabilities,impro
197、ved cycling stability for longer device lifespan,and environmental friendliness as MOFs are indeed often made from abundant materials.They have potential applications in renewable energy systems and other high-power applications.Challenges such as their long term stability in the presence of electro
198、lytes or the scalability of production are being addressed in ongoing research.30 Cloud energy storage This new type of energy storage business model aims to address the high costs associated with traditional energy storage facilities.It is inspired by the sharing economy and utilises cloud-based pl
199、atforms to aggregate distributed energy storage resources.It involves the use of a shared pool of grid-scale energy storage resources that provide storage services to consumers.By leveraging the cloud,cloud energy storage can reduce the investment and operation while still meeting the requirements o
200、f consumers.This innovative approach has the potential to make energy storage more affordable and accessible,supporting the integration of renewable power and decarbonizing power systems.It also has the potential to connect different types of energy systems,such as district heating and natural gas s
201、ystems,making it a versatile solution.Nano-encapsulated phase change materials NEPCMs are innovative materials where phase change materials are encapsulated within tiny nanoscale polymer capsules.They use the thermodynamics of phase change to store energy under the form of latent heat:when the tempe
202、rature increases,they change phases(typically from solid to liquid)and absorb energy(endothermic process).The reverse phase change takes place when the environment cools down,releasing the energy that was stored(exothermic process).NEPCMs can therefore be used to regulate temperatures and store ener
203、gy.These materials will find various applications,including efficient thermal energy storage,indoor temperature regulation through building materials and textiles,safeguarding perishable goods in the cold chain industry,and enhancing energy efficiency in heating,ventilation,and air conditioning syst
204、ems.31 Aqueous supercapacitors In these energy storage devices,electrolytes based on water(usually water mixed with ternary salts or metal hydroxides)are used.Like in traditional supercapacitors,the storage of energy is realised through electrostatic charge separation at the interface between the el
205、ectrolyte and an electrode.They offer several advantages compared to traditional supercapacitors.They are safer and more environmentally friendly due to the absence of flammable or toxic materials.They also tend to have a wider operating voltage range,leading to increased energy storage capacity.The
206、y are more cost-effective and simpler to manufacture compared to their non-aqueous counterparts,which contributes to their practicality for mass production.These characteristics,together with their durability,make them suitable for energy storage in renewable energy systems,electric vehicles,and var
207、ious portable electronic devices.Liquid organic hydrogen carrier This signal relates to chemical compounds used for storing and transporting H2 in a liquid form,serving as an alternative to traditional hydrogen storage methods like high-pressure gas cylinders or cryogenic liquid hydrogen.Common exam
208、ples of LOHCs include dibenzyltoluene,methylcyclohexane,or decalin.These compounds absorb H2 gas under mild conditions and release it when needed,making them a reversible storage solution.Absorbed H2 can be safely transported as a stable liquid,which is typically non-toxic and non-flammable,reducing
209、 safety risks.The desorption process releases H2 for various applications like power generation and fuel cells.LOHCs offer advantages such as safety,high energy density,ease of handling,and the ability to decouple hydrogen production and utilisation,promoting the use of hydrogen as a clean energy ca
210、rrier.32 Metal foam phase change materials for energy storage This innovative approach to energy storage combines metal foams with phase change materials to create efficient and versatile energy storage systems.Phase Change Materials are substances that absorb and release large amounts of thermal en
211、ergy during phase transitions(usually solid-liquid)at a specific temperature.PCM are adsorbed or encapsulated within the structure of a metal foam,a highly porous materials with a three-dimensional network of interconnected metal structures.Combining these two materials brings some advantages:high t
212、hermal conductivity of metal foam allow for efficient heat transfer;PCM have a high energy storage capacity per unit volume;reduced heat loss during energy storage;suitable for temperature regulation in various applications,including building HVAC systems and solar energy storage;long cycle life whi
213、ch makes them suitable for long-term energy storage;high energy density in a compact form,making them suitable for applications with space limitations;possibility for storage of thermal energy generated by renewable sources like solar and wind.Overall,these materials show potential to become efficie
214、nt solution for thermal energy storage and applications in the building,industrial,and renewable energy sectors.Shell and Tube Energy Storage This energy storage system consists of a large outer shell and a series of interconnected tubes inside this shell,containing a heat transfer fluid(water or a
215、specialized fluid).The system operates by circulating a heat transfer fluid through the tubes:thermal energy is stored within the system during charging phases and transferred to a secondary fluid which is then used for heating or cooling applications.Shell and tube thermal energy storage systems ar
216、e known for their efficient thermal energy storage capabilities and their reliability and scalability.They are ideal for applications that require decentralized energy storage and precise temperature control,such as district heating and cooling systems.33 2.6 Weak signals related to Geothermal Hybri
217、d Nano fluids in geothermal applications This weak signal involves the dispersion of nanoparticles(metal oxides like alumina,copper oxide)or carbon-based materials(e.g.,carbon nanotubes,graphene),into the working fluids used in geothermal heat exchangers or heat transfer systems.This enhances therma
218、l conductivity,improves heat transfer,reduces fouling and scaling,enhances thermal stability,and requires less pumping power.The properties of hybrid nano fluids can be tailored to meet specific requirements for different geothermal applications.Their practical implementation in geothermal systems r
219、equires further R&D and careful consideration of factors such as nanoparticle stability,potential impact on the environment,and cost-effectiveness.Medium deep geothermal energy This refers to geothermal energy resources at moderate depths,typically reservoirs at 1,500 meters to 3,000 meters below su
220、rface,and characterized by moderate to high temperatures(150C to 300C).Energy is harnessed through drilling of deep wells and injection of fluids to capture heat.The resulting steam/hot water is used for generating electricity,district heating,and industrial processes.Medium deep geothermal energy i
221、s considered relatively environmentally friendly because it produces little to no greenhouse gas emissions and has a minimal environmental footprint.Though medium deep geothermal energy has some advantages,it has a high initial drilling and exploration costs.Deep borehole heat exchange Is a geotherm
222、al technology that involves drilling deep boreholes into the Earths crust to extract or store heat,making it an interesting solution for sustainable and efficient heating and cooling.The process is suitable for a wide range of applications,even in urban areas with limited space,and is grid-independe
223、nt,making it an option for off-grid locations.With a long lifecycle and minimal maintenance requirements,the deep borehole heat exchange process contributes to sustainable building practices and the global shift towards clean energy sources.34 2.7 Weak signals related to Ocean Energy Triboelectric n
224、anogenerator in ocean energy These devices convert mechanical energy into electrical energy through the triboelectric effect.In the context of ocean energy,they are used to harness the mechanical energy generated by ocean waves,currents,and motion for various applications.They can also capture energ
225、y from salinity gradients when freshwater and seawater meet.Integrated into wave energy conversion systems,they capture the motion and vibrations from waves to produce electricity for offshore sensors,on-board electronics,communication systems,and navigation equipment,or to power autonomous underwat
226、er vehicles or underwater sensor networks that monitor ocean conditions,marine life,and detect events like tsunamis.These devices are compact and lightweight and can operate in harsh and remote ocean conditions,making them a promising technology for harnessing ocean energy.2.8 Weak signals related t
227、o Photovoltaics Agrivoltaics This sustainable agricultural practice involves the co-location of solar photovoltaic panels with agricultural crops or other types of land use.Solar panels are installed above crops or within agricultural fields,maximising land usage by allowing both solar energy genera
228、tion and crop cultivation on the same land.Solar panels also provide shade for crops,reducing heat stress and water evaporation.Integrating solar panels with agriculture can lead to more efficient use of land,water,and other resources,contributing to sustainability.Technological advances and optimiz
229、ation are ongoing to make agrivoltaics systems more efficient,cost-effective,and adaptable to various agricultural practices and crops.35 Indoor organic photovoltaics A special type of solar cells designed to generate electricity in indoor lighting conditions.They have a high efficiency under low li
230、ght conditions and can harvest light over a broad spectrum.They are cheap to produce,have a low environmental impact and are lightweight,flexible,and resistant.They can be customized to facilitate their integration in buildings and buildings materials(e.g.windows)and are well-suited for powering int
231、ernet of things devices,sensors,and other wearable electronics.Bifacial perovskite solar cells They offer some advantages compared to traditional bifacial solar panels,primarily due to the unique characteristics of perovskite materials:higher power conversion,thinner and more lightweight materials t
232、han silicon-based solar cells(making them suitable for flexible and lightweight applications like portable solar chargers and building-integrated photovoltaics),lower energy payback time,integration in tandem solar cell,potential for low-cost production.Challenges remain related to their stability,l
233、ongevity,and commercial scalability,but their unique characteristics and potential for higher efficiency make them a promising option for future solar energy applications.Tin perovskite solar cells A type of photovoltaic cell using tin-based perovskite materials as the light-absorbing layer.While th
234、ey can be manufactured using inexpensive materials and processes,these cells nevertheless exhibit high light-absorption efficiency and have a higher tolerance to defects and impurities than other perovskite materials.These solar cells can be fabricated as thin films,making them suitable for applicat
235、ions where film flexibility is required(e.g.integration in buildings,windows,roofing,or for portable electronics,electric vehicles,satellites),and they can also be used in tandem solar cell configurations to improve efficiency.Compared to more traditional lead-perovskite,they are less toxic and ther
236、efore more environmentally friendly.36 Perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells A type of solar cell that combines perovskite and silicon materials to enhance efficiency by combining the strengths of both materials to capture a broader spectrum of sunlight.Tandem solar cells benefit from the stability
237、and durability of silicon while retaining the cost-effective manufacturing techniques of perovskite.They have a higher energy production density and can be tailored for specific applications.Their long-term stability and scalability still need to be improved before they can become commercially mains
238、tream.Vehicle Integrated Photovoltaics This refers to the integration of solar panels into various parts of a vehicle to generate electricity from sunlight,reducing reliance of vehicles on fossil fuels and lowering greenhouse gas emissions.Solar panels on a vehicle could charge the on-board battery,
239、increasing the electric range of electric and hybrid vehicles and reducing fuel consumption.Energy Independence of the vehicles could be improved,for example in the case of power consumption when a vehicle is parked or idle,or when batteries are depleted,enabling functions like battery conditioning,
240、pre-cooling or pre-heating,and powering auxiliary equipment.The battery lifespan could be increased,as integrated PV would help maintain a higher state of charge.Offshore solar power Installing solar panels on bodies of water(oceans,lakes,reservoirs)allows to convert solar energy into electricity.Th
241、is approach conserves land resources in densely populated areas,efficiently uses water bodies,and benefits from the cooling effect of water,enhancing solar panel efficiency.Offshore solar power is scalable,reliable,and can be combined with other renewable energy sources for integrated energy solutio
242、ns.R&D is ongoing to improve mooring and anchoring systems,and address environmental considerations and potential detrimental impacts on ecosystems.Its an emerging technology with great potential to contribute to sustainable energy generation.37 Hydrovoltaics This concept is a variant of offshore so
243、lar power and simply combines solar photovoltaic panels with hydropower systems,typically floating on bodies of water.The primary advantage is to use the already existing hydropower infrastructure.Additional advantages are:increased efficiency of the solar panels to generate electricity(direct sun e
244、xposure+exposure to sun reflection on water),space efficiency as it optimizes land use,a cooling effect that preserves solar panel efficiency,reduced water evaporation,a smaller land footprint,and low installation costs.These advantages make hydrovoltaics an attractive and sustainable option for ele
245、ctricity generation,particularly in regions with abundant water resources and existing hydropower infrastructure.Ternary organic photovoltaics This type of solar cell makes use of three different active components,typically two different electron-donating organic semiconductors and one electron-acce
246、pting organic semiconductor,creating a ternary blend.This approach improves the efficiency and stability of organic solar cells by enhancing light absorption,charge generation,and charge transport.Ternary OPVs can be tuned to meet specific efficiency and stability requirements and they are suitable
247、for a wide range of applications and device architectures(e.g.integration in tandem devices).While ternary organic photovoltaics offer several advantages,they also face some challenges,such as sub-optimal material combinations,rather low stability,and issues for scaling up production.Ongoing researc
248、h in this field aims to further improve the efficiency and commercial viability for practical applications.38 2.9 Weak signals related to Renewable Fuels Sustainable ammonia Produced through environmental friendly methods(e.g.sustainable reactants,integration of CCUS,renewable energy source),sustain
249、able ammonia(NH3)is a promising clean energy carrier and energy storage product.Its advantages as clean energy carrier capabilities,hydrogen storage solution,and carbon-free agriculture enabler make it an important focus of research and development efforts towards addressing global sustainability ch
250、allenges.Sustainable NH3 is also considered as a potential fuel for various transportation means e.g.heavy-duty trucks,in industrial processes,ships or trains.Low-temperature direct ammonia fuel cells A promising technology that efficiently converts ammonia into electricity at low temperatures(below
251、 100C).It offers advantages such as high energy density,clean and carbon-free energy production,reduced heat management complexity.Ammonia is an abundant fuel source and a clean-burning fuel that does not produce carbon dioxide during combustion.These cells find applications in backup power systems,
252、portable electronics,distributed energy generation,transportation,remote and off-grid power supply,clean propulsion systems for ships and submarines,agricultural equipment,renewable energy storage,hydrogen production,environmental monitoring,and wearable technologies.Ongoing research aims to enhance
253、 their efficiency and commercial viability for broader adoption.39 Sustainable aviation fuels Several types of sustainable fuels are under development and testing for the aviation sector(e.g.hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids,synthetic paraffinic kerosene,fuels derived from alcohol,waste,algae or
254、 biomass),with the primary goal of reducing the carbon footprint of the aviation industry.They can be used as direct replacements for conventional aviation fuels without requiring modifications to aircraft engines or infrastructure.These fuels play a crucial role in the aviation industrys efforts to
255、 reduce its environmental impact and promote more sustainable air travel by decreasing carbon emissions.Direct seawater electrolysis A process that uses electricity to split seawater into hydrogen and oxygen.It has recently gained interest as a method for producing H2,and it offers several advantage
256、s:abundant raw material,lower environmental impact by using renewable energy,high purity of the H2 produced,simultaneous production of O2,solution for storage of energy,integration with renewable energy sources and grid systems,applications in marine environments,potential for carbon capture.Direct
257、seawater electrolysis faces some challenges such as energy efficiency,materials durability,and competitiveness compared to other methods.40 2.10 Weak signals related to Smart Grid Blockchain for smart grid Blockchain technology offers several advantages for smart grids.First,it helps integrating dis
258、tributed energy resources(solar panels,wind turbines)by enabling peer-to-peer energy trading without intermediaries,promoting efficient energy use and supports the development of microgrids.It improves grid resilience by decentralizing control/coordination of grid assets,making the grid less vulnera
259、ble to failures and cyberattacks.It also facilitates billing/settlement processes by automating transactions.It provides secure and tamper-resistant data storage,which is vital for maintaining data integrity and security during operations,reducing the risk of manipulation or fraud.It also fosters in
260、teroperability among grid components and stakeholders,and enhance grid management through real-time visibility of operations and quick anomaly detection.Electricity theft detection Data analytics can identify irregular consumption patterns,potentially indicative of theft.The goal is to prevent unaut
261、horized consumption of electrical power within a smart grid distribution network to reduce revenue losses for utility companies.The overall stability and reliability of the grid are both improved by preventing unauthorized overloads that could strain the system.It enhances safety by mitigating hazar
262、ds associated with unauthorized electricity connections.Electricity theft detection contributes to better energy management,supporting energy conservation and sustainability goals while maintaining the financial health of utility companies.41 Edge computing for smart grid This involves the processin
263、g and analysing of data locally,near its source,within the electrical distribution network.This approach enables real-time data analysis,reduces data transmission latency,enhances grid reliability,and supports localized control and decision-making,making it crucial for optimizing grid operations and
264、 facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources.Blockchain for smart grid can complement edge computing for example to secure and ensure integrity of data generated and processed at the edge.Machine learning for smart grids Involves the use of AI tools and data analytics techniques to
265、enhance operations and efficiency of smart grids.It plays a critical role in predicting electricity demand,optimizing load balancing,integrating renewable energy sources,detecting energy theft,identifying faults,and ensuring the optimal operation of grid components.Machine learning also supports pre
266、dictive maintenance,grid resilience,cybersecurity,and customer engagement by analysing the vast quantity of data generated by sensors and meters.Harnessing the power of machine learning can improve the reliability of smart grids,reduce costs,and better accommodate renewable energy production.Interne
267、t of Things for smart grids The integration of IoT devices into smart grids allows real-time monitoring and data collection about operating conditions of various grid components,which give operators a comprehensive view of the grids status at any time,reducing time for intervention(e.g.fault detecti
268、on,cyber-attack),improving reliability and reducing downtime.Data on energy consumption patterns can be collected to optimise load management and distribution,leading to more efficiency and helping reduce peak demand.It also engages consumers as they actively participate in managing their energy pro
269、duction/consumption through using smart meters and home automation,increasing energy efficiency and cost savings.Overall,IoT devices make smart grids more efficient,reliable,and adaptable to changing energy needs,benefiting both utility companies and consumers.42 2.11 Weak signals related to Solar F
270、uels Covalent organic framework for solar fuel production COF are promising catalysts for various applications,including the production of solar fuels.With a high surface area,they allow efficient light absorption and catalytic reactions in solar fuel production processes.Their properties can be tun
271、ed to optimize their performance for specific solar fuel production reactions.They are stable materials,able to withstand harsh conditions often associated to photochemical reactions and their catalytic activity facilitates key reactions like water splitting or CO2 reduction,essential for solar fuel
272、 production.COFs are a relatively new class of materials,promising further gains in efficiency in solar fuel production.S-scheme and Z-scheme heterojunctions Both S-scheme and Z-scheme heterojunctions are explored in the field of photocatalysis for their potential in harnessing solar energy to drive
273、 chemical reactions,such as water splitting for hydrogen production or pollutant degradation.The terms S-scheme and Z-scheme refer to the two different mechanisms by which charge carriers(electrons and holes)are transferred between different semiconductors in the heterojunctions.The design and optim
274、ization of such heterojunctions play a crucial role in enhancing the overall efficiency of these processes.S-scheme heterojunction In an S-scheme heterojunction,the charge carriers(electrons and holes)are transferred sequentially between the two semiconductor materials.One semiconductor absorbs ligh
275、t and generates electrons and holes.The electrons are then transferred to the other semiconductor,where they participate in redox reactions.The term S comes from the sequential nature of the charge transfer process.S-scheme heterojunctions can be used in various photocatalytic applications(e.g.water
276、 splitting,pollutant degradation)and can be tailored to specific requirements.They have a high efficiency and require less materials,which makes them greener and cost-effective photocatalysis technologies for a sustainable future.43 Z-scheme heterojunction catalyst This specialized type of catalyst
277、mimics the natural photosynthetic process found in plants and algae.Two different semiconductor materials with distinct bandgap energies are combined to create the heterojunction.Each material is responsible for specific reactions,similar to the two photosystems in natural photosynthesis.One of the
278、primary applications of Z-scheme heterojunction catalysts is the production of solar fuels,in particular the generation of hydrogen gas from water splitting.They can also be employed in carbon dioxide reduction,where solar energy is used to convert CO2 into organic compounds,such as hydrocarbons.CO2
279、 reduction to produce solar fuels Photoelectrochemical(PEC)and Photocatalytic reduction of CO2 both make use of solar energy to convert CO2 into valuable chemicals.Yet,they differ in their mechanisms.While PEC systems involve photoelectrodes and the separation of electron-hole pairs in the semicondu
280、ctor for electrochemical conversion,photocatalytic systems use photocatalysts dispersed in a solution or attached to a surface to promote photochemical reduction.That being said,they are related processes and their detection as weak signals shows the importance given by the research community to cap
281、ture and utilize CO2 in industrial processes.Photocatalytic CO2 reduction to produce solar fuels The process makes use of photocatalysts to convert carbon dioxide into useful chemicals or fuels using sunlight or other sources of light as energy source.It is a promising technology for addressing clim
282、ate change by reducing CO2 emissions and producing renewable solar fuels.Solar light is the driver of the chemical reactions,which makes it a sustainable and environmentally friendly way to mitigate CO2 emissions and create valuable energy resources.The solar fuels generated through this process can
283、 be stored and used for various applications,including electricity generation or as a substitute for fossil fuels.This technology has the potential to play a significant role in achieving a carbon-neutral or carbon-negative energy system.However,there are still challenges to overcome,such as improvi
284、ng the efficiency of the photocatalysts,developing scalable systems,and optimizing the overall process for practical use.44 Photoelectrochemical CO2 reduction This process relies on solar energy to convert CO2 into valuable chemical compounds.It involves a photoelectrochemical cell(semiconductor mat
285、erial),an electrolyte solution containing CO2,and sunlight.The process offers a promising way to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions,a major contributor to climate change.By using renewable energy to convert CO2 into useful products,it can help reduce the concentration of this greenhouse gas in the at
286、mosphere.Valuable chemical compounds that can be used in various industrial processes are produced(carbon monoxide,formic acid,methane,etc.).PEC-CO2 reduction can also potentially be used to store excess solar energy by converting it into chemical energy,which can be later used.Research is ongoing t
287、o increase the efficiency of CO2 conversion,the development of more robust catalysts,and the long-term stability of photoelectrochemical cells.2.12 Weak signals related to Wind Energy Wake steering A strategy used in wind energy management where the yaw of wind turbines is intentionally adjusted to
288、redirect the wake generated by upstream turbines away from downstream turbines in a wind farm.Research on wake steering seeks to maximize the energy production and efficiency of wind farms by minimizing the negative impact of wake interference on downstream turbines.Wake steering also contributes to
289、 the integration of wind energy into the electrical grid,by making it more reliable and predictable.Ongoing research involves the development of advanced control algorithms and monitoring systems to optimize the wake steering process,taking into account the complex fluid dynamics of wakes.Ultimately
290、,wake steering research is critical for improving the competitiveness and sustainability of wind farms(increased energy production without additional turbines).US US 45 Fast frequency support in wind turbines This refers to the combination of technologies needed to quickly adapt the functioning of w
291、ind turbines to fluctuations in the grid frequency.Control algorithms and sensor systems continuously monitor grid frequency and turbine performance which allows wind turbines to respond to variations in the grid frequency by adjusting the pitch of the blades(to capture more wind)or by changing the
292、generator output(to balance supply and demand).These mechanisms maintain the stability of the grid,enhance the integration of renewable energy sources,and prevents power outages and disturbances.2.13 Miscellaneous weak signals Interfacial solar evaporation This process harnesses solar energy to evap
293、orate a liquid at the interface between two materials.Applications are in water purification,desalination,and the concentration of brine solutions.Interfacial solar evaporation is energy efficient,environmentally friendly,has low operating costs,and is scalable and versatile.It is also a process tha
294、t shows high resilience in remote areas and has high potential for solar-driven desalination,holding great promises for addressing global water and energy challenges.Hemispherical solar distiller This device is used to produce pure freshwater using solar energy through distillation.The primary advan
295、tage of hemispherical solar distillers is their low-cost and sustainable purification and desalination of water(contaminants,salt and microorganisms are removed).They are ideal for remote and off-grid locations(low maintenance is needed),or for providing emergency water supply,and can be designed in
296、 various sizes to meet specific needs.Some limitations still remain,like lower water production rates compared to other water purification methods and the obvious dependence on sunlight.46 Islanded microgrid cluster A network of interconnected microgrids operating independently from the main electri
297、cal grid,forming a self-contained resilient energy system.Each microgrid within the cluster generates,distributes,and stores electricity autonomously,incorporating renewable energy sources and energy storage technologies.In the event of a grid outage,individual microgrids can continue supplying powe
298、r,ensuring uninterrupted energy supply for critical facilities and communities.The cluster allows sharing of excess energy,optimizing utilization and balancing energy loads.These clusters are particularly valuable for facilities like hospitals and emergency response centres,and represent a promising
299、 solution to enhance energy security and mitigate the impact of grid disruptions e.g.in the case of natural disasters.Energy injustice This concept highlights the unequal distribution of benefits and burdens related to energy production,distribution,and consumption,particularly affecting marginalize
300、d communities.This issue has gained prominence recently due to several factors:marginalized communities are experiencing a disproportionate share of the negative impacts of energy-related activities(pollution,habitat destruction)leading to adverse health effects;disparities in access to affordable,r
301、eliable,and clean energy resources have been recognized,with an impact on education,healthcare,and economic opportunities;the impacts of climate change disproportionately affect vulnerable populations.Policy making in the field of Energy often excludes marginalized communities,leading to projects an
302、d policies that do not consider their needs and concerns.The transition to cleaner energy sources can also pose challenges,such as economic hardships in regions where coal mines and power plants are closing,necessitating just transition strategies to support affected workers and communities.47 Lacus
303、trine shale oils These hydrocarbons are found in shale rock formations in ancient freshwater lake environments.They are one of the unconventional oil and gas resources that shows increased production in recent years,mainly due to advancements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.Although
304、they have economical and strategic significance,the extraction of shale oils is associated with environmental and social concerns,such as water usage and contamination,greenhouse gas emissions,and land use.It is a topic of significant debate and regulatory scrutiny.The development of new greener tec
305、hnologies and methods for extracting shale oils is ongoing(e.g.innovations in drilling,reservoir stimulation,and well construction techniques).Levelized cost of Energy This well-known metric is used to assess and compare the lifetime costs of different energy generation methods,taking into account f
306、actors such as the initial investment,the operational and maintenance costs,and the expected energy output over the lifetime of the facility.It provides a standardized metric for evaluating the economic performance of different energy technologies.Three signals related to LCOE have been detected:Lev
307、elized cost of hydrogen This metric is specifically used to assess the cost of producing hydrogen over the lifetime of hydrogen production facilities.It helps hydrogen stakeholders(industry,policymakers,investors)make informed decisions about the feasibility and economic viability of hydrogen projec
308、ts.48 Levelized cost of storage The LCOE metric has also been used recently to assess the cost of energy storage over the lifetime of a storage system(expressed in).Levelized cost of heat Similarly,LCOE metric has been used to assess and compare the cost of delivering heat from various sources and t
309、echnologies over the entire lifecycle of heating systems,It allows comparing the cost-effectiveness of different heating technologies and fuel sources,helping to make informed decisions when selecting heating options for various applications,such as residential heating,industrial processes,or distri
310、ct heating systems.This analysis can be particularly important in the context of energy policy and investment decisions to promote efficient and cost-effective heating solutions.49 3.Discussion Scientific and technological fields Environmental considerations and the transition to renewable energy so
311、urces underpins the development of most of the early stage technologies listed in this report.37%(8.823 out of 23.945)of the scientific publications describing the weak signals are published in scientific journals classified Figure 3).Figure 3:for the weak signals,by decreasing value.Many of the 77
312、early stage technologies detected build on scientific fields related to materials,as it can clearly be observed in Table 5.About 40%of the scientific publications underpinning the weak signals relate to material science,condensed matter physics,and material chemistry.The table also confirms that env
313、ironmental considerations drive the development of early stage technologies in the field of energy.Table 5:top 10 journal categories(ASJC)for scientific publications.Looking at the top CPC classes for patents confirms this observation(Table 6),with 64,5%of the patents classified in the CPC class Y02
314、E,which is the class used to flag technological inventions related to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions caused by the generation,transmission or distribution of energy.50%of the patents retrieved for the 77 early stage technologies relate to batteries.0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.008
315、0.0090.00100.001 4 7 528349525558679%Scientific Publications in EnvWeak signals50 Table 6:top 10 CPC classes for patents Out of the 77 early stage technologies reported,about half of them relate to energy storage,with 18 signals directly related to batteries.Looking
316、at the other early stage technologies,we can see that the area of photovoltaics accounts for 10 of them.This focus on energy storage technologies is most likely related to the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources.These sources of energy are characterized by intermittent output and subject
317、to natural fluctuations.To ensure a stable and reliable energy supply,they require effective storage solutions that store energy when the production exceeds demand and release energy during high-demand periods.The decentralization of energy production also calls for the integration of technologies t
318、o store energy locally.Other factors like the electrification of mobility,the search for alternatives to lithium-based batteries,or the fight against climate change are also contributing to the ongoing intensive R&D efforts to develop new energy storage technologies.Revealed technological advantage
319、Looking at the average revealed technological advantage(RTA)per category(Table 7),it can be observed that Europe shows high RTA index values for early technologies in areas such as Carbon Capture,Sequestration and Utilization,District heating and wind energy.However,RTA is lower for early stage tech
320、nologies related to batteries,geothermal energy,solar fuels,energy storage technologies and smart grids,indicating no specialization.China and South Korea have very strong RTAs in most categories,whereas Japan,and surprisingly the US,do not show high levels of specialization for many of the technolo
321、gies.51 Table 7:average RTA per category of weak signal(biomass and ocean energy were not considered(only one WS)Table 8 shows the number of weak signals within each CETO category that have an RTA higher than one standard deviation above the mean value for the category,indicating strong specializati
322、on.From clearly display heterogeneity in their specialization patterns.While China and,to some extent,Korea seem to focus on technologies related to Batteries,Energy Storage and Photovoltaics,the EU specializes in the development of technologies related to District Heating.Table 8:number of weak sig
323、nals with significant RTAs per country and category.Public and private actors Public research institutions play a prominent role in the development of early stage technologies,before the commercialization phase.This is illustrated by Figure 4 showing the proportion of universities(among all organisa
324、tions)involved in each of the weak signal.CETO categoriesCNEUJPKRUSBatteries3.030.590.721.320.58Geothermal2.290.560.080.760.14Photovoltaics1.581.041.573.690.51Solar fuels2.500.411.213.040.57CCUS0.871.700.231.160.69District heating0.452.540.150.070.67Energy storage2.350.590.402.090.57Renewable fuel1.
325、281.110.901.681.14Smart grid1.270.690.311.300.63Wind energy0.811.740.640.271.87Other2.140.430.000.160.40RTA52 Figure 4:proportion of universities among organisations involved in the weak signals Patenting activity Not surprisingly,most of the weak signals display a very low number of associated pate
326、nts,reflecting the early stage of development of these technologies.At the same time,some of these early stage technologies have already entered the patenting phase,as illustrated in Figure 5,which depicts the percentage of patents among all the documents collected for each of the emerging technolog
327、y.This percentage is relatively high for some of the early stage technologies(see Table 9).Figure 5:percentage of patents retrieved for each of the weak signal.53 Table 9:Early stage technologies with%patent in the documents retrieved above 20%.A correlation between the number of patents filed and t
328、he number of private actors in each weak signal can be observed(Figure 6).As technologies demonstrate commercial potential,the engagment of companies in patenting activity rises concurrently.Figure 6:correlation between the number of patents filed for each weak signal and the number of private actor
329、s(companies and fundations),for weak signals with%patents 10%.Public funding Governmental and public funding agencies are already supporting the development of most of the 77 emerging technologies reported here.Metadata from scientific literature(sourced from Scopus)allows identifying the principal
330、funding bodies for these technologies.Table 10 shows the top 10 funding agencies mentioned in the funding section of scientific publications for the 12 different categories.It appears that the European Union,through diverse funding mechanisms like Horizon 2020 or the European Regional Development Fu
331、nd,is actively funding the emerging technologies related to Biomass,CCUS,Wind Energy,Smart Grid,Renewable Fuels,and Photovoltaics.Weak signals%patentsPV-offshore solar power73Geothermal-medium deep geothermal ener73energy storage-cloud energy storage50Batteries-retired batteries49energy storage-shar
332、ed energy storage40PV-hydrovoltaics35Batteries-flexible Zinc ion32energy storage-compressed C0225energy storage-polyetherimide24batteries-Al suflur batteries24batteries-Organic Flow21Batteries-K hybrid supercapacitor2054 Table 10:top 10 funding agencies per category 55 The alignment of financial sup
333、port with the Revealed Technological Advantages(RTAs)is evident for Biomass,CCUS,and Wind Energy.However,this is not the case for technologies in the categories Smart Grids,Photovoltaics and Renewable Fuels,which do not display any strong relative specialization despite receiving significant public funding from EU mechanisms.Public funding by European Institutions in Batteries,Energy Storage,and O