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1、Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020 The decline of traditional advertising mediums continues, with printed newspapers and magazines forecast at -7.1% and -6.3% respectively in 2020. However, TV and radio are expected to make a modest recovery at 0.6% and 1.7% respectively. Voice assistants and ad
2、dressable TV are breathing new life into traditional media. Online video is expected to grow at 14.6% in 2020. Mobile is set to overtake TV ad spend share in 2020. Global ad spend growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2020, amounting to US$615.4 billion. However, ad spend is expected to decline in some key
3、markets in 2020 including Germany, Spain and Italy, reflecting economic trends in those countries. China and India are on different paths in terms of ad spend growth, forecast at 5.6% and 10.9% respectively. Latin America is growing rapidly driven by digital ad spend. Global digital ad spend growth
4、is forecast at 10.5% in 2020, amounting to US$276 billion. Top ad spend trends in 2020 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 2.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020 Against a backdrop of long-running trends shaping ad spendthe increasing power of digital, the rise of mobilethere are a number of ways in wh
5、ich 2020 looks set to be different. Lets take a look at the key ad spend trends this year from both a market and a media perspective. Whats new in 2020? Market outlook: Events drive ad spend globally Global ad spend growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2020, amounting to US$615.4 billion, propelled by a nu
6、mber of key sporting and political events such as the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics 2020, UEFA European Football Championships and the US Presidential elections. The US elections alone are estimated to attract as much as $10 billion in additional ad spend. Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20203. T
7、he cold winds of recession? The global outlook sees ad spend continuing to grow, but forecasts across many markets have been revised down since our previous forecasts in June 2019 (see Figure 1), indicating caution as global economic forecasts reach their lowest level in ten years. The Asia-Pacific
8、(APAC) region has been revised down by -0.7%, despite still being the fastest-growing economic region in the world. Meanwhile, the UKstill forecast to grow at 6% in 2020has been revised down by -0.6% following a sluggish year economically and continued Brexit uncertainty. A number of western Europea
9、n markets (e.g. Italy, Germany and Spain) have not only been revised down but are predicted to experience decline in overall ad spend growth both in 2020 and in 2021. Spain and Germany both lowered their 2020 economic forecasts. Political deadlock and international trade tensions continue to affect
10、Spain, and Germanys export-reliant economy only narrowly avoided recession in the third quarter of 2019 due to, in part, a falling global demand for capital goods. In Italy, advertising spend made global headlines when it put into full force a national ban on gambling advertising in July 2019. The b
11、an is predicted to cost advertising and sponsorship stakeholders between 150-200 million in revenues per year. The UK has been revised down by -0.6% following a sluggish year economically and continued Brexit uncertainty.” “ Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20204. Markets2019a*2020f2021f Global2.6
12、(3.6)3.9 (4.1)3.3 N. America3.2 (3.2)3.8 (3.7)2.8 USA3.1 (3.1)3.8 (3.6)2.8 Canada5.4 (5.3)5.5 (5.7)3.9 W. Europe2.2 (2.8)2.6 (3.1)2.4 UK6.1 (6.3)6.0 (6.6)6.3 Germany-1.1 (0.4)-1.5 (0.5)-1.2 France5.0 (3.6)5.1 (3.0)4.5 Italy-1.6 (-1.6)-0.1 (0.6)-0.6 Spain-1.0 (0.5)-1.3 (0.4)-1.6 C 150 million of its
13、daily users are in China. Video platforms, like TikTok, not only demonstrate the increasing popularity of social media, but also of online video. Global online video ad spend is forecast to grow at 14.6% in 2020. Take YouTube. The platform counted 2 billion monthly active users in 2019, a 5% increas
14、e on the previous year. Again, developing regions drive significant growth. For example, Latin America expects online video ad spend to grow at 37.9% this year. 15.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020 The decline of traditional advertising Digitals takeover has come at the price of traditional adv
15、ertising mediums, many of which have experienced consistently declining growth. For example, printed newspapers and magazines are forecast to decline in 2020 by -7.1% and -6.3% respectively. Global newspaper ad spend in 2020 is forecast at US$37.9 billion. Its total ad spend is expected to decline b
16、y more than half (-50.9%) from its 2010 forecast. Out of the key markets surveyed, China is set to experience the greatest decline at -25% this year. Meanwhile, in the US, over 2,000 newspapers have closed since 2004. With US adults now more likely to get their news from social media than print news
17、paper, a resurgence in print ad spend seems unlikely. Despite being expected to increase 0.6% in 2020, TV ad spend growth has been stagnating during recent years as increasing numbers of consumers turn to online platforms (e.g. YouTube) and streaming services (e.g. Netflix) for their entertainment.
18、According to OfCom, four out of ten UK viewers now say that online video services are their main way of watching television and film. Innovations, such as addressable TV, may support modest growth, but for now, television has yet to turn around its steady decline. 16.Global Ad Spend Forecasts Januar
19、y 2020 As we look ahead to a new decade, some of our leading thinkers share their ideas on the future of ad spend in 2030. Tia Castagno, Head of Innovation, Vizeum “In 2030, media in many countries will be accessed entirely through digital (incorporating TV, radio and OOH). As such, digital as a cat
20、egory may disappear altogether. New categories such as experiential will be an extension of OOH and command a large proportion of ad spend.” Dan Calladine, Head of Media Futures, Carat “Ad spend will still be growing in 2030, but there will be less strict distinctions between different categories, a
21、s almost everything will be on a screen of some sort (even Out-Of-Home). The large ecosystems will be even more dominant than now, but there will also be lots of local independent media owners, serving important niches.” Looking ahead to 2030 17.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020 Michael Komasin
22、ski, President EMEA, Merkle “In 2030 almost everything will be automated on an impression-by- impression, lifetime value attribution model and with bespoke creative that is based on the persons need and the advertisers objective. AI will accumulate an understanding of each consumer and serve relevan
23、t, personalised content. This will sit at the core of the value exchange meaning consumers will become more valuable as they increasingly see the benefit of sharing more of their data. Where brands and advertising will fall down is in failing to balance the agenda and respect the boundariesjust like
24、 in human relationships.” Sanjay Nazerali, Chief Strategy Officer, dentsu x “In 2030, we will have achieved the Holy Grail of measuring marketing. We will understand how diverse channels and content interrelate to produce business outcomes. We will have redeveloped organisational structures to remov
25、e the unhelpful silos and metrics that exist between disciplines. In doing this, we will deliver seamless experiences which delight consumers and reward brands. Ad spend will almost certainly increase, as the value of advertising becomes clearer.” 18.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020 Nick Halas
26、, Global Head of Strategy, Posterscope “The overarching theme of ad spend in 2030 will be fragmentation across an ever-expanding canvas. Chaotic and challenging for clients to navigate, but alsodue to the continued digitisation of media infrastructure and consumer connectivityCMOs will be able to le
27、arn and pinpoint with much greater precision how investment is driving results. The big question for me is whether that will drive long-term media investment, or whether brands will focus on micro media investments across a myriad of platforms.” 19.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020 About Dentsu
28、 Aegis Network Part of Dentsu Group, Dentsu Aegis Network is made up of ten global network brandsCarat, Dentsu, dentsu X, iProspect, Isobar, mcgarrybowen, Merkle, MKTG, Posterscope and Vizeum and supported by its specialist/multi-market brands. Dentsu Aegis Network is Innovating the Way Brands Are B
29、uilt for its clients through its best-in-class expertise and capabilities in media, digital and creative communications services. Offering a distinctive and innovative range of products and services, Dentsu Aegis Network is headquartered in London and operates in 145 countries worldwide with more th
30、an 47,000 dedicated specialists. For further information please contact Tim Cooper Global Head of Strategic Communications Tim.C Methodology Advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data collated from around Dentsu Aegis Networks brands and based on our local market expertise. We use a bo
31、ttom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 59 markets covering the Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Rest of World by medium: Television, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, Cinema, Out-of-Home and Digital Media. The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency comm
32、ission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. For global and regional figures, we convert the figures centrally into USD with the average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced bi-annually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following year.