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1、2023 Presidents Forum2023年世界年世界联盟会议主席论坛Zhou Jun周峻Rotating Chairman of Industrial Truck Institution,CCMA中国工程机械工业协会工业车辆分会 轮值主席Director,General Manager of Anhui Heli Co.,Ltd.安徽合力股份有限公司 董事 总经理Oct 27,2023 Kyoto,Japan日本 京都 2023年10月27日A.The Trend of Chinas Economy in Recent Years近年来中国经济走势近年来中国经济走势B.Current
2、 Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China 当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状C.Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势CONTENTS 目目 录录The Trend of Chinas Economy in Recent Years近近/年年/来来/中中/国国/经经/济济/走走/势势PART ASource:National Bureau of Statistics of China
3、 中国国家统计局 In recent years,Chinas economy has entereda stage of high-quality development,withcontinuous growth in total volume andmaintaining tremendous resilience andpotential.The Chinas GDP reached 121trillion yuan in 2022.In the first half of 2023,GDP grew by 5.5%year-on-year,and theannual GDP grow
4、th rate is expected to bearound 5.6%.近年来,中国经济进入高质量发展阶段,总量连续跃升,并保持巨大韧性和潜力。2022年实现国内生产总值121万亿元,2023年上半年GDP同比增长5.5%,全年预计GDP增长率为5.6%左右。1.Chinas GDP and GDP Growth Rate(2013-2023H1)2013-2023年上半年中国国内生产总值及同比增长率 In recent years,the level of innovation-drivendevelopment in China has accelerated,and newdriver
5、s of innovation-driven development havebeen gathering momentum.In 2021,the CIIreached 264.6(compared to 100 in 2005),with ayear-on-year increase of 8.0%,maintaining agrowth trend for 16 consecutive years.In 2022,China ranked first among 36 middle-and high-income economies in the global innovation in
6、dex.近年来,中国创新发展水平加速提升,创新发展新动能加速聚集。2021年中国创新指数达到264.6(以2005年为100),同比增长8.0%,连续16年保持增长态势。2022年全球创新指数排名位居36个中高收入经济体之首。2.China Innovation Index(CII)and sub-sector index(2012-2021)2012-2021年中国创新指数及分领域指数Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China 中国国家统计局Source:China Academy of Information and Communicatio
7、ns Technology 中国信息通信研究院 In recent years,the vitality of Chinas digitaleconomy has been continuously released,becoming an important engine for Chinasstable growth and transformation.In 2022,thescale of Chinas digital economy reached 50.2trillion yuan,accounting for 41.5%of GDP.Itis expected that the
8、scale of Chinas digitaleconomy will exceed 60 trillion yuan in 2025,accounting for more than 50%of GDP.近年来,中国数字经济发展活力持续释放,成为中国稳增长促转型的重要引擎。2022年中国数字经济规模达50.2万亿元,占GDP比重为41.5%。预计到2025年中国数字经济规模将超60万亿元,占GDP的比重也将超50%。3.The Scale of Chinas Digital Economy and its Share of GDP(2012-2022)2012-2022年中国数字经济规模及其
9、占GDP比重 China has firmly prioritized eco-environmentalconservation and green development,promoted thecomprehensive green transformation of economic andsocial development.In recent years,the scale of Chinasgreen trade has continued to grow,and its proportion inthe total global green trade has been inc
10、reasing year byyear.High-tech,high-value-added and green products,which are now typically represented by“Three New Things”:Electric vehicles,photovoltaic products,lithium batteries,are now taking the lead of export growth.In 2022,Chinas exports of electric vehicles,photovoltaic products and lithium
11、batteries increased by 131.8%,67.8%and 86.7%year-on-year,respectively.4.Chinas share of global green trade has increased by 2.3%in the past 10 years 10年间中国绿色贸易规模全球占比提升2.3个百分点中国坚定不移走生态优先、绿色发展之路,积极推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型。近年来,中国绿色贸易规模持续增长,在全球绿色贸易总额中的占比呈逐年扩大趋势。以电、光、锂“新三样”即电动汽车、光伏产品、锂电池的出口为代表,中国高技术、高附加值、引领绿色转型的产品
12、成为出口新增长点。2022年,电动汽车、光伏产品、锂电池出口分别同比增长131.8%、67.8%、86.7%。The Chinas economy has strong resilience,great potential,andabundant vitality,the long-term sound fundamentals havecreated favorable conditions for long-term employmentstability,while innovation and entrepreneurship also providestrong momentum,a
13、nd new employment growth opportunitycontinue to emerge.In 2022,12.06 million new jobs were created across the country,exceeding the target of 11 million new jobs expected at the beginning of the year,showing that employment situation remains stable.5.Chinas Registered Urban Unemployment Rate(2013-20
14、22)2013-2022年中国城镇登记失业率 中国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足,长期向好的基本面为就业长期稳定创造了良好条件,同时创新创业也提供强大动能,新的就业增长点不断涌现。2022年,全国城镇新增就业1206万人,超额完成1100万人的全年目标任务,就业形势总体保持稳定。Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China 中国国家统计局 The Chinas PMI increased for the fourth consecutivemonth in September to 50.2%,with an increase of0.5%from t
15、he previous month.Sub-indexes such asproduction,new orders also rose month on month,indicating a positive recovery in market supply anddemand,and the momentum of economic recoverywill be further consolidated.9月份中国制造业采购经理指数为50.2%,较上月上升0.5个百分点,连续4个月上升。生产、新订单等分类指数也环比上升,市场供需回升向好,向后经济向好回升势头将进一步巩固。6.China
16、 Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)(2022.09-2023.09)2022年9月-2023年9月中国采购经理指数Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China 中国国家统计局 The Chinas Warehousing Index in Septemberwas 53.5%,maintaining an expansion range foreight consecutive months.Sub-indexes such asnew orders,business volume have rebounded,indi
17、cating that the demand for warehousingbusiness continues to pick up.The industry isexpected to maintain a stable and positive trend.9月份中国仓储指数为53.5%,连续8个月保持在扩张区间,新订单、业务量等指数均有回升,仓储业务需求持续回暖,行业将继续保持平稳向好运行态势。7.Chinas Warehousing Index (2022.09-2023.09)2022年9月-2023年9月中国仓储指数Source:China Logistics Informati
18、on Center 中国物流信息中心 As an important foundation for the connection ofsupply and demand in the industrial chain of thenational economy and the circulation of physicalgoods,the scale of Chinas logistics demand hascontinued to grow steadily in recent years.In2022,the total amount of social logistics in t
19、hecountry will reach 347.6 trillion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.Among them,industrial logistics demandcontributes more than 70%to the total growth ofsocial logistics,playing the role of“ballast stone”.It is expected that the scale of Chinas logisticsmarket will maintain rapid growth in the
20、futureand promote vigorous development to Chinasindustrial vehicle industry.8.The Scale of Chinas Social Logistics and its Growth Rate(2012-2022)2012-2022年中国社会物流总额及同比增长率Source:National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),PRC 中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会作为国民经济产业链供需衔接和实体商品流通的重要基础,近年来中国物流需求规模持续稳定增长。2022年全国社会物
21、流总额实现347.6万亿元,同比增长3.4%。其中,工业物流需求对社会物流总额增长贡献率超过70%,发挥了“压舱石”作用。预计向后中国物流市场规模将保持较快增长,同步带动工业车辆行业蓬勃发展。Current Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China当当/前前/中中/国国/工工/业业/车车/辆辆/行行/业业/发发/展展/现现/状状PART BIn recent years,the overall scale of Chinas industrialvehicle market has grown rapidly.In 2021,thein
22、dustrys sales volume exceeded 1 million units forthe first time.In 2022,the domestic market was in anadjustment period and the export market growthrate narrowed,causing industrys sales volumedecreased by 4.68%year-on-year to 1.048 millionunits.In the first half of 2023,the industry trendturned from
23、decreasing to increasing,with a year-on-year increase of 5.82%.近年来,中国工业车辆市场总体规模快速增长。2021年行业销量首破100万台大关,2022年国内市场处于调整期,出口市场涨幅收窄,行业销量同比下降4.68%至104.8万台。2023年上半年行业趋势由降转升,同比增长5.82%。1.Chinas Sales Volume of Industrial Trucks(2013-2023H1)2013-2023年上半年中国工业车辆销量Source:WITSIn recent years,the electrification o
24、f Chinasindustrial vehicle market has continued toadvance,and the electrification rate of productshas further increased from less than 30%in2013 to 64%in 2022.The competitiveness ofproducts represented by lithium batteryforklifts(a type of new energy)and light andelectric storage vehicles has been s
25、ignificantlyimproved.近年来,中国工业车辆市场电动化进程持续推进,产品电动化率由2013年的不足30%进一步提升至2022年的64%。以新能源锂电池叉车、轻小型电动仓储搬运车为代表的车型竞争力明显提升,电动叉车尤其是新能源产品的出口竞争力提升迅速。2.Proportion of Electric Truck vs.IC Truck in China(2013-2023H1)2013-2023年上半年中国市场电动车与内燃车比例变化情况Source:WITSIn recent years,Chinas warehousing industry hascontinued to r
26、un well,and the penetration rate ofwarehousing vehicles has continued to increase,accounting for 51%in 2022 from 17%in 2013.Withthe continuous acceleration of Chinas urbanizationprocess and the vigorous development of e-commerce,the demand for warehousing and logistics industryremains high.This will
27、 further expand and deepen theapplication of warehousing vehicles and accelerate thetransformation towards digitalization and intelligence.近年来,中国仓储行业持续良好运行,仓储车辆渗透率不断提升,占比由2013年的17%提升至2022年的51%。随着中国城市化进程的不断加快和电子商务的蓬勃发展,仓储物流行业需求旺盛,仓储车辆应用将进一步拓展深化,并向数字化智能化方向加速变革。3.Proportion of CB Truck vs.WH Truck in C
28、hina(2013-2023H1)2013-2023年上半年中国市场平衡重车与仓储车比例变化情况Source:WITS4.Sales of Five Types of Industrial Trucks in China(2020-2023H1)2013-2023年上半年中国工业车辆市场各类车型销售情况Source:WITSIn recent years,Chinas industrial vehicle market hasalso developed more evenly in terms of structurallevel.The proportion of electric cou
29、nterbalancedvehicles exceeds 25%.The sales volume of light andsmall electric storage vehicles market beyondexpectation.The scale of internal combustion vehiclesmarket remains high,in which the competitiveness ofhigh-end products in the incremental market issignificant.近年来,中国工业车辆市场在结构层次方面发展也更加均衡。平衡重车
30、辆中电动应用比例超过了25%;轻小型电动仓储车市场销量超预期增长;内燃车辆存量市场仍具规模,增量市场高端内燃产品竞争力优势显著。Source:WITS5.The Proportion of Chinas Industrial Vehicle Sales to World Sales(2013 vs.2022)2013-2022年中国工业车辆销量占世界销量比重变化情况 After 70 years of technology precipitation and market expansion,Chinas industrial vehicle industry has become more
31、profound intechnology innovation,more abundant in product range,more vital in industry market.At present,there are more than 100 industrialvehicle manufacturing enterprises,domestic and foreign-funded enterprises share industry resources to build a benign ecology.Theindustry sales volume has ranked
32、first in the world for 14 consecutive years,and more than half of the worlds total sales in 2022 comesfrom China.经过70年的技术沉淀与市场拓展,中国工业车辆技术创新更加深刻,产品种类更加丰富,市场活力不断提升。目前中国工业车辆制造企业超100家,内外资企业共享行业资源共建良性生态,行业销量连续14年位居世界第一,2022年世界总销量中超一半来自中国。Development Trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China未未/来来/中中/国
33、国/工工/业业/车车/辆辆/行行/业业/发发/展展/趋趋/势势PART 3After more than 40 years of rapid development,the foundation of Chinasmanufacturing industry from large to strong has become more solid.经过40多年的快速发展,中国制造业由大到强的基础更加坚实。The national industrial policy of“support the development of Specialized and Sophisticated enterpr
34、ises,and promote the high-end,intelligent and green development of the manufacturing industry”has pointed out the direction and provided fundamental guidance for accelerating the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.“支持专精特新企业发展,推动制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展”的 中 国 国家产业政策,为加快推进制造业高质量发展指明了方向、提供了
35、根本遵循。In the future,Chinas industrial vehicle industry will focus on the aspect of high-end,intelligent and green,continuously improve development advantages,innovatedevelopment momentum,optimize development ecology.未来,中国工业车辆行业将聚焦高端化、智能化、绿色化方向,不断提升发展优势、创新发展动能、优化发展生态。1.Targeting high-end,intelligent,a
36、nd green technologies,the industry will accelerate its progress from“quantity improvement”to“quality leap”以高端化、智能化、绿色化为发展关键词,加速从“量的提升”向“质的飞跃”迈进Industrial vehicle demand from manufacturing and logistics industries accounted for nearly 60%in 20222022年制造业和物流业工业车辆需求占比近60%Since the beginning of this year
37、,Chinas nationaleconomy has continued to recover and positive factorshave been accumulating.It is expected that the Chinas industrial vehicle industry will usher in a new round of growth in the short term due to the recovery of the manufacturing and logistics industries.今年以来,中国国民经济运行延续恢复向好态势,积极因素不断累
38、积,短期有望随制造业、物流业景气复苏迎来新一轮增长。2.With the deepening of economic recovery and the long-term trend of“machine replacement”,the industrys growth is stronger than cyclicality景气复苏深化叠加长期“机器换人”确定趋势,行业成长性强于周期性Source:CITA 中国工业车辆分会;National Bureau of Statistics of China 中国国家统计局Manufacturing IndustryLogistics Indus
39、try2.With the deepening of economic recovery and the long-term trend of“machine replacement”,the industrys growth is stronger than cyclicality景气复苏深化叠加长期“机器换人”确定趋势,行业成长性强于周期性Source:Zeping Macro 泽平宏观The speed of population aging in China is constantly accelerating中国人口老龄化速度加快 Chinas population has been
40、 negative growth since 2022,which will accelerate an aging society.“Machinesubstitution”is a long-term driving force for theindustry to transform and upgrade,which is also adefinite trend that will further accelerate the industry tomove towards automation,intelligence and high-end.中国人口自2022年开始负增长,社会
41、老龄化加速到来,“机器换人”是推动行业转型升级的长期驱动力,也是确定性趋势,将进一步加速行业向自动化、智能化、高端化方向迈进。The population:Aged 65 or older(10000 people)Proportion in the total population(%)“Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”.Under the dual-carbon goal,the industry actively practices the concept of greenhigh-quality develop
42、ment,unswervingly takes the professional development path of Eco-first,green and low-carbon,vigorously promotesapplication of electric new energy products and green transformation of the social economy.It is expected that in the next five years,thecategory and number of new energy-powered industrial
43、 vehicles will grow explosively,and the electrification rate is expected to exceed 80%.“绿水青山就是金山银山”。双碳目标下,行业积极践行绿色高质量发展理念,坚定不移走生态优先、绿色低碳的专业化发展道路,大力推进电动新能源产品应用,促进社会经济全面绿色转型。预计未来5年,新能源动力工业车辆的品类和数量将呈现爆发式增长,行业电动化率有望超过80%。3.Aiming at the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,the industry will accele
44、rate the green and low-carbon transformation,and the application of green products will be more extensive瞄准“双碳”目标,行业加速推进绿色低碳转型,绿色产品应用更加广泛Source:VCG 视觉中国With the rapid development and application of new generation information technologies such as cloud computing,Internet of Things,newgeneration mobil
45、e communication(5G),artificial intelligence(AI),and digital twins,enterprises closely focusing on the main industry of industrialvehicles and the smart logistics industry,accelerate the pace of intelligent factory construction,increase resource investment in the intelligentlogistics sector,plan to b
46、uild an industrial vehicle Internet platform with growth,provide first-class digital supply chain solutions based on verticalmarkets,promote the deep integration of informatization and industrialization,and accelerate the comprehensive transformation of digitalization.随着云计算、物联网、新一代移动通信(5G)、人工智能(AI)、
47、数字孪生等新一代信息技术快速发展并转入应用,紧紧围绕工业车辆主业、智慧物流产业,加快智能工厂建设步伐,加大智能物流板块资源投入,规划打造具有成长性的工业车辆互联网平台,提供一流的基于垂直市场的数字化供应链解决方案,促进信息化和工业化的深度结合,加快数字化全面转型。4.Deepen the integration of new-generation information technology and manufacturing industry,accelerate digital transformation and upgrading深化新一代信息技术与制造业融合发展,加快数字化转型升级步
48、伐5.Accelerate the construction of“software and hardware integration”intelligent logistics solutions,moving from“Internet of Things”to“Intelligent Logistics”加快打造“软硬件一体化”智能物流整体解决方案,从“万物互联”迈向“智慧物流”As the industrial system changes from“equipment-centered industry”to“software-defined industry”,the compre
49、hensive innovation of“software and hardware integration”will shape new competitive advantages.In the future,the trend of intelligent,digital and systematicindustry will be further accelerated,and“product intelligence”will be fully integrated into the“overall solution of automated logistics”,anddiffe
50、rent industries,different ecosystems and different customers will move from customized“solutions”to standardized“intelligent logistics”.随着工业体系从“以装备为核心的工业”向“软件定义的工业”转变,“软硬件一体化”的全面创新将塑造新的竞争优势。未来行业智能化、数字化、系统化趋势将进一步加快,“单机智能”全面融入“自动化物流整体解决方案”,不同行业、不同生态、不同客户将从定制化“解决方案”向标准化“智慧物流”迈进。With the transformation
51、of the global economy to low-carbon,technological and healthy development,enterprises have a deeper understandingof the connotation of sustainable development,integrated the concept of sustainable development into the construction of governance structureand business management activities,explored th
52、e construction of ESG management and practice system with Chinese characteristics,andexpanded the new situation of sustainable development of the industry with joint construction,co-governance and sharing.随着全球经济向更低碳、科技、健康发展转型,企业对可持续发展内涵的理解更加深刻,纷纷把可持续发展理念融入治理架构建设和经营管理活动,探索构建具有中国特色的ESG管理与实践体系,以共建、共治、共享拓展行业可持续发展新局面。6.The concept of sustainable development has gained popularity,and the industry is moving towards a new journey towards being more sustainable可持续发展理念更加深入人心,行业共赴绿色可持续发展新征程THANK YOU谢 谢