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1、SOLD $20.68 UPCOMING BOOKINGS Completed Jobs September 2018 The Online Platform Economy in 2018 Drivers, Workers, Sellers, and Lessors by JPMOrgan Chase Institute About the Institute The global economy has never been more complex, more interconnected, or faster moving. Yet economists, businesses, no

2、nprofit leaders, and policymakers have lacked access to real-time data and the analytic tools to provide a comprehensive perspective. The resultsmade painfully clear by the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermathhave been unrealized potential, inequitable growth, and preventable market failures. T

3、he JPMorgan Chase Institute is harnessing the scale and scope of one of the worlds leading firms to explain the global economy as it truly exists. Its mission is to help decision-makerspolicymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leadersappreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness

4、 of the global economic system and use better facts, timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chases unique proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and insights on the inner workings of th

5、e global economy, frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers. The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good. Acknowledgments We thank Kerry Zhang for superb research assistance and

6、for his thoughtful contributions to this work. We thank Chuin Siang Bu for thoughtful comments on the analysis. We are also grateful for the advice of Peter Ganong. We would also like to acknowledge the invaluable comments and advice of academic and policy experts, including Katharine Abraham, Dmitr

7、i Koustas, Jonathan Hall, Seth Harris, Mike Horrigan and his team at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Lawrence Katz, and Paul Oyer, as well as members of the Aspen Institute Future of Work Initiative. We are deeply grateful for their generosity of time, insight, and support. This effort would no

8、t have been possible without the critical support of our partners from the JPMorgan Chase Consumer MBO Partners, 2018). This is an order of magnitude larger than the narrower Online Platform Economy. As a result, some of the growth in the Online Platform Economy that we observe in this report may no

9、t reflect growth in the Gig Economy overall. Instead, it might reflect the migration of previously existing forms of contingent work onto online platforms. In fact, a recent survey of how Gig Economy workers are paid shows that an increasing share is being paid through software platforms rather than

10、 directly from customers (PYMNTS.COM, 2017). Although the Online Platform Economy is a subset of the Gig Economy, trends in this subset may not always show up in traditional measures of contingent work. For example, in the recent Contingent Worker Survey (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018), the fract

11、ion of workers reporting that their sole or main job was an alternative work arrangement declined from 10.7 percent in 2005 to 10.1 percent in 2017. As we recently argued, many Online Platform Economy participants could easily be excluded from that figure since they do not rely on platforms for thei

12、r main job (Farrell et al, 2018). Other administrative data sources, such as tax filings, indicate patterns of growth in contingent work which are more consistent with the growth trajectory of the Online Platform Economy documented in this report (Abraham et al, 2017; Jackson et al 2017). When mappi

13、ng trends in our administrative data to other measures, it is important to carefully consider the unit of analysis. Most survey respondents are asked to report on their own labor market experience, and only occasionally are they asked to report on family members experiences. Our sample is composed o

14、f bank accounts, which are generally shared among co-resident family members, though the number of distinct accounts and extent to which they are linked can vary by family. Bank accounts, aggregated up to the primary account user, are nonetheless more comparable to a tax unit in tax filing data. Acc

15、ordingly, we interpret our findings as a measure of participation among families rather than individuals. In addition, whereas measurement and analysis of these work arrangements is often restricted to the labor force (for example, Katz and Krueger, 2016), we include families regardless of their lab

16、or force status for two reasons. First, we do not observe whether family members consider themselves part of the labor force; and second, those traditionally considered to be out of the labor force (for example, students or retirees) might still participate as suppliers in the Online Platform Econom

17、y. 8 Findings Finding One The Online Platform Economy has continued to grow. Between 2013 and 2018, transportation platforms have grown to dominate in terms of both the number of participants and total transaction volume. Box 2: How the Online Platform Economy has Evolved For this report, we expande

18、d the JPMorgan Chase Institute Online Platform Economy dataset to include 128 platforms, more than triple the 42 platforms included in previous research. The original 42 platforms still account for the vast majority of transaction volume, but as Exhibit 1 indicates, the 86 expansion platforms have g

19、rown from accounting for less than 3 percent of total transaction volume in 2015 to over 5 percent in 2017. Fifty-one (63 percent) of the 86 new platforms represent marketplaces for non-transport workincluding home and office cleaning, repair services, landscaping, technology consultations, pet sitt

20、ing, tutoring, and many others. Out of 128 platforms, 70 (55 percent) of them are in the non-transport work sector. Emerging transport platforms, including new models for delivery and ridesharing, account for most of the rest of the expansion platforms. Thirty-six (28 percent) of the 128 platforms a

21、re in the transport sector. Leasing platforms, once used primarily for real estate, now allow suppliers to rent out their personal vehicles, equipment, and many other assets. Even selling platforms, where the Online Platform Economy had its beginning, are continuing to proliferate though at a slower

22、 pace. Aside from the growth in the number of platforms and array of goods and services on offer, there are also important ways in which this marketplace is evolving. First, whereas we had originally characterized these marketplaces as matching independent suppliers to individual consumers, we obser

23、ve that businesses are increasingly on the demand side of the Online Platform Economy. For example, restaurants and even major online retailers use transport platforms to source independent drivers for delivery of goods or merchandise to customers. Second, while a supposed value proposition of the O

24、nline Platform Economy remains the fact that participants are free to enter and leave the market when they want, some platforms facilitate relationships which may involve expectations of continued service over time. This is especially true in the non-transport work sector (for example, tele-therapy

25、platforms). Another characteristic that once distinguished the Online Platform Economy was that suppliers were paid for discrete tasks or products (piece work), whereas traditional employment usually involved paying for time (shift work). However, some of the non-transport work platforms now allow s

26、uppliers to provide shift work. As we show below, the non-transport work sector of the Online Platform Economy is still small in terms of both number of participants and total transaction volume. However, these trends illustrate ways in which contracts between independent workers and their customers

27、 are continuing to evolve as platforms emerge and innovate. Previous research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute focused on 42 companies which together dominated the Online Platform Economy by June 2016 (Farrell and Greig, 2016). For this study, informed by reviews of payment trends as well as a system

28、atic review of trends in the technology industry, we expanded the list of platforms to 128. As these markets have broadened, they have also evolved in important ways, which we describe in Box 2. Our sample comprises over 39 million de-identified families for whom we see evidence that a Chase checkin

29、g account functions as a primary financial tool, including 2.3 million distinct families who participated in the Online Platform Economy. See the Appendix for a detailed description of our sample and how it compares demographically with the nation. 9 THE ONLINE PLATFORM ECONOMY IN 2018: DRIVERS, WOR

30、KERS, SELLERS, AND LESSORS Findings Exhibit 1: The 42 platforms included in previous work accounted for the vast majority of total transaction volume Sector (examples) Number of Platforms Fraction of transaction volume accounted for by expansion platforms OriginalExpansionTotal201520162017 Transport

31、 (ride sharing, delivery, moving) 1323360.1%1.3%2.0% Non-transport work (telemedicine, dog walking, repairs) 19517047%52%62% Selling (hand crafted products, used books) 3473.1%5.9%6.8% Leasing (home sharing, parking space rental) 78152.1%3.0%3.2% TOTAL42861282.9%3.9%5.3% Source: JPMorgan Chase Insti

32、tute Third, as payment technologies have evolved to facilitate faster and more frequent payments at lower cost, platforms have been offering more ways for participants to be paid (PYMNTS.com, 2017; PYMNTS.com, 2018). These technologies may not be penetrating deeply into the Online Platform Economy y

33、et. We observe payments directly deposited into a Chase checking account, regardless of whether payment is made using the traditional Automated Clearing House (ACH) or any of the newer and faster alternatives. Over 98 percent of payments that we observe are cleared through ACH. Most of the rest arri

34、ve via wire transfer, and only a tiny fraction use newer technologies. However, a subset of new payment options could involve bypassing a bank account entirelyfor example, having money instantly credited to a prepaid debit card. To the extent that participants begin taking these latter payment alter

35、natives, we will undercount participation in the Online Platform Economy. Finally, the landscape of platforms is very dynamic. Among the original list of 42 platforms on our June 2016 list, 22 (52 percent) acquired other platforms; 10 (24 percent) were acquired by other companies; and 12 (29 percent

36、) have had more or less no change. Thus, just to follow the original 42 platforms in a consistent way over time required attention to new entrants that combined with platforms on our original list as a result of acquisition. Exhibits 2 and 3 illustrate the evolution of total transaction volume from

37、our 128 platforms into these checking accounts. In early 2013, the Online Platform Economy consisted almost entirely of a handful of platforms which consumers could use to sell goods to each other. In just five years, the transport sector has grown to dwarf the others, generating as much revenue as

38、the other three sectors combined. Total earnings on leasing platforms also grew over this period, though at a much slower pace. Although the non-transport work sector includes 55 percent of the platforms we tracked, it never generated more than 4.5 percent of total transaction volume. In fact, its s

39、hare of total transaction volume we observed declined since 2013. Exhibit 2: Total transaction volume in the transportation sector of the Online Platform Economy has grown to the level of all the other sectors combined Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute Total payments from all platforms (millions of d

40、ollars) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 LeasingAll sectorsALLTransportationNon-transport workSelling Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sept 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sept 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sept 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sept 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sept 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 10 THE ONLINE PLATFORM ECONOMY IN 2018: DRIVERS

41、, WORKERS, SELLERS, AND LESSORS Findings Exhibit 3: The share of the selling sector in Online Platform Economy transaction volume has fallen, and the share of the transport sector has grown Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute Fraction of total transaction volume 17.9% 21.7%21.5% 71.5% 24.8% 18.9% 4.3%

42、2.7% 3.6% 6.4% 50.8% 56.0% 2013 Q12015 Q32018 Q1 Quarter LeasingTransportationNon-transport workSelling Exhibit 4 tracks the evolution of the fraction of our sample generating income on platforms; this evolution echoes the patterns in total earnings. Participation has grown steadily by about 0.3 per

43、centage points per year over the past five years, from 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013 to 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2018. This growth is driven entirely by the expansion of the transport sector. The dominance of the transport sector in total transaction volume (Exhibit 2) mirrors

44、that in participation (Exhibit 3). In terms of year-on-year growth, comparing March 2018 with March 2017, we observe 15 percent more drivers, 37 percent more non-transport workers, 10 percent more lessors, and 6 percent fewer sellers. Exhibit 4: As of March 2018, 1.6 percent of sample families parti

45、cipated in the Online Platform Economy Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute Fraction of the sample generating income from platforms in each month 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% LeasingAll sectorsALLTransportationNon-transport workSelling Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sept 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun

46、14 Sept 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sept 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sept 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sept 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 11 THE ONLINE PLATFORM ECONOMY IN 2018: DRIVERS, WORKERS, SELLERS, AND LESSORS Findings One notable difference between the pictures presented by Exhibits 2 and 4 is that even though leasin

47、g platforms have grown to account for about 22 percent of total transaction volume (Exhibit 2), they account for less than 10 percent of participants (Exhibit 4). This foreshadows a pattern we report belowthe top earners on leasing platforms generate significantly higher earnings than participants i

48、n any other sector. Our own previous research as well as the work of others has documented that participants tend to enter and leave the Online Platform Economy at high frequency (Farrell and Greig, 2016; Mishel, 2018). In light of this dynamism, an alternative metric of participation is the share o

49、f accounts with any platform earnings during a year, rather than during a month. Exhibit 5 tracks this metric. As of the first quarter of 2018, 4.5 percent of our sample had earned platform income in the prior year. Exhibit 5: By the first quarter of 2018, over 4.5 percent of sample families had participated in the Online Platform Economy at least once in the past year. Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute Fraction of sample generating platform income 4.5% 1.6% Platform income in the past yearPlatform income in the current month 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Nov 13 Mar 14 Jul 14 Nov 14 Mar 15 J