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1、World Manufacturing Production Statistics for Quarter III 2020 Manufacturing bounces back after COVID-19 drop, but outlook uncertain Statistics for Quarter III 2020 World manufacturing growth in Quarter III 2020 World manufacturing production already registered an overall slowdown in 2019, which has
2、 been further exacerbated by the economic crisis triggered by COVID-19. In the fi rst half of 2020, the economic slump was severe but ex- pected given the lockdowns imposed around the world to contain the virus. In the third quar- ter of 2020, most economies showed signs of re- covery, albeit with a
3、n unclear future, as vari- ous industrialized countries were experiencing a second wave of coronavirus from October 2020 onwards. In the third quarter of 2020, global ma- nufacturing output declined by 1.1 per cent in a year-over-year comparison due to COVID-19 containment measures, following a sign
4、ifi cant drop of 11.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. Industrialized economies recorded a reduc- tion in manufacturing production of 5.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, after a contraction of 16.3 per cent in the previous quarter. China, the worlds largest manufacturer, was hit hard b
5、y the pandemic in the fi rst quarter of 2020, but the countrys manufacturing sector has been able to bounce back. According to sea- sonally adjusted index numbers, Chinas manu- facturing output increased by 8.2 per cent in a year-over-year comparison in the third quarter of 2020, following a growth
6、rate of 3.2 per cent in the second quarter. G G G G G G 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 QII 2019QIII 2019QIV 2019QI 2020QII 2020QIII 2020 G Dev. and EIE (excl. China) China Industrialized economies World Figure 1: Growth of world manufacturing output, percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previ
7、ous year Manufacturing production of developing and emerging industrial economies1(excluding China) registered a decline of 3.7 per cent and 22.0 per cent in output in the third and the se- cond quarters of 2020, respectively. 1Referred to in the rest of the report as ”Dev. and EIE”. UNIDO Statistic
8、s2 Statistics for Quarter III 2020 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 QI 2006 QI 2007 QI 2008 QI 2009 QI 2010 QI 2011 QI 2012 QI 2013 QI 2014 QI 2015 QI 2016 QI 2017 QI 2018 QI 2019 QI 2020 Figure 2: Growth of world manufacturing output in percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous year The curre
9、nt economic downturn is the fi rst of such magnitude since the fi nancial crisis of 2008/2009 (Figure 2). During that crisis, con- siderable reductions in production were recorded for four consecutive quarters, but exceptionally high increases in production were reported in subsequent quarters.It re
10、mains to be seen whether the current economic crisis will follow a similar recovery path. The most recent fi gures refl ect the global shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the incipient recovery. The challenges and un- certainties that dominated previous quarters, such as trade protectionist me
11、asures as well as uncertainty around Brexit, have clearly moved to the background.COVID-19 is still forc- ing governments around the world to intervene in their economies, especially as infection rates in many industrialized countries began to rise again from October 2020 onwards. The full im- pact
12、of the containment measures remains un- certain; moreover, a redistribution of global ma- nufacturing production towards industrialized economies might accelerate, as they seek to re- duce dependence on imports following years of outsourcing production activities abroad. UNIDO Statistics3 Statistics
13、 for Quarter III 2020 Findings by country group Industrialized economies Industrialized countries reported losses of 5.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 com- pared to 16.3 per cent in the previous quarter, during which containment measures were ap- plied. The contractions registered in the fi
14、rst quarter were mostly caused by prevailing trade and tariff uncertainties in commodity trading between the United States, China and the Euro- pean Union (EU). Detailed fi gures presented in this report provide further insights into diff erent industrialized regions. North Americas manufacturing ou
15、tput fell by 6.1 per cent in the third quarter and by 16.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 in a year- over-year comparison. This development is pri- marily linked to manufacturing activity in the United States, which dropped by 6.1 per cent and 15.6 per cent in the third and the second quarte
16、rs of 2020, respectively. The manufacturing output of East Asias industrialized economies decreased by 5.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, after already plunging by a signifi cant 13.0 per cent in the pre- vious quarter. Japans output, the largest man- ufacturer in this group, declined by 12.
17、5 per cent in the same period, after a decrease of 20.5 per cent in the previous quarter. However, Taiwan, Province of China and Singapore recorded in- creases of 5.9 per cent and 10.6 per cent, respec- tively, in the third quarter due to the positive performances of the computer and electronics as
18、well as the pharmaceuticals industries. North America East AsiaEurope QII 2019 QIII 2019 QIV 2019 QI 2020 QII 2020 QIII 2020 QII 2019 QIII 2019 QIV 2019 QI 2020 QII 2020 QIII 2020 20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0 Figure 3: Growth rates of manufacturing output of industrialized regions, percentage change co
19、mpared to the same period of the previous year The manufacturing production of Euro- pean industrialized economies fell by 5.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2020.The downward trend witnessed prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis had already aff ected export- UNIDO Statistics4 Statistics fo
20、r Quarter III 2020 oriented countries in particular, and is mainly attributable to ongoing trade frictions with the United States as well as the uncertainty related to the Brexit negotiations. Disaggregated data for Europes industri- alized economies show comparatively weaker manufacturing trends in
21、 eurozone countries in previous quarters. 20 15 10 5 0 QII 2019 QIII 2019 QIV 2019 QI 2020 QII 2020 QIII 2020 All industrialized Europe Eurozone Figure 4: Growth rates of manufacturing output in European industrialized economies, percentage change compared to the same period of the previous year Det
22、ailed data for the third quarter of 2020 indicate a signifi cant decline of manufacturing output in nearly all industrialized European eco- nomies, triggered predominantly by COVID- 19 containment measures (Figure 5).Coun- tries with the largest manufacturing sectors were among those worst aff ected
23、: Italys manufactu- ring output suff ered a decrease of 4.6 per cent, while Spains fell by 5.5 per cent, Frances by 7.3 per cent and Germanys by 10.2 per cent. United Kingdom Switzerland Sweden Spain Slovenia Slovakia Russian Federation Portugal Poland Norway Netherlands Malta Luxembourg Lithuania L
24、atvia Italy Ireland Hungary Germany France Finland Estonia Denmark Czechia Belgium Belarus Austria 1050 Figure 5: Growth rates of European industrialized countries, percentage change compared to previous year, quarter III 2020 Focusing on non-EU industrialized econo- mies, output in the United Kingd
25、om fell sharply by 8.8 per cent in the current quarter, following a drop of 23.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Uncertainties following the Brexit on 31 Jan- uary 2020 have clearly been pushed to the back- ground in the face of COVID-19. Switzerland also registered a signifi cant reduction in out
26、put, namely by 4.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 in a year-over-year comparison. It is unclear how severely and for how long industrialized countries will suff er from the pandemics impacts, considering that the lat- est health data are pointing to Europe and the United States as the centres
27、 of the coronavirus pandemic during winter 2020. UNIDO Statistics5 Statistics for Quarter III 2020 Developing and emerging industrial economies In accordance with UNIDO Statistics country grouping, China is presented separately from other country groups due to its size and the specifi c characterist
28、ics of its economy. Sus- tained high growth rates over the past several years have been rapidly transforming China into an industrialized economy. China The latest seasonally adjusted fi gures indi- cate that Chinas economy already reached and exceeded its pre-crisis level of manufacturing output du
29、ring the third quarter of 2020, with an increase in output of 8.2 per cent. This stands in contrast to the fi rst quarter of the year, when Chinas manufacturing output dropped consid- erably by 15.9 per cent. The majority of Chi- nese industries experienced growth in the cur- rent quarter, with only
30、 a few exceptions, such as wearing apparel (-6.7 per cent) and leather products (-9.1 per cent).Computer electron- ics (8.9 per cent), machinery (11.2 per cent), electrical equipment (15.8 per cent) and auto- mobiles (16.7 per cent) recorded high year-over- year output growth in the third quarter of
31、 2020. It remains uncertain, however, whether Chinas export-oriented economy will succeed in main- taining this high production level, given sub- dued demand around the world. Developing and emerging industrial eco- nomies (excluding China) The manufacturing output of developing and emerging industr
32、ial economies decreased by 3.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, fol- lowing a plunge of 22.0 per cent in the previous quarter. This groups growth performance was already sluggish at the end of 2019 after a steady decline in growth throughout 2018. G G G G G G G G G G G G 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 QII
33、2019QIII 2019QIV 2019QI 2020QII 2020QIII 2020 G G Dev. and EIE (incl. China) China Dev. and EIE (excl. China) Emerging industrial economies Figure 6: Growth of manufacturing output of developing and emerging industrial economies, percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous year As
34、ia and the Pacifi c reported in the third quarter of 2020 a drop in manufacturing output of 5.3 per cent, following a reduction of 23.3 per cent in the previous quarter, in a year-over-year comparison.The lower growth rates recorded from the end of 2018 onwards already marked a downward trend, follo
35、wing higher year-over-year UNIDO Statistics6 Statistics for Quarter III 2020 growth rates in previous quarters. A closer look at specifi c countries in this region reveals out- put reductions of varying degrees. For example, manufacturing output increased in Viet Nam by 2.6 per cent and in Pakistan
36、by 4.4 per cent, whereas it decreased in India by 6.8 per cent, by 8.1 per cent in both in Mongolia and Thailand and by 17.0 per cent in the Philippines. In the third quarter of 2020, Latin Amer- icas manufacturing output decreased by 4.0 per cent after a decline of 24.2 per cent in the pre- vious q
37、uarter on a year-over-year basis.This country group has been experiencing a sluggish economic development since the beginning of 2018. The regions two largest manufacturers, Mexico (-7.2 per cent) and Brazil (-0.4 per cent) witnessed reductions in manufacturing output of varying degrees, as did the
38、majority of the regions countries. Argentinas output dropped by 3.8 cent, while Costa Rica and Nicaragua al- ready registered output increases of 0.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively. Compared to the third quarter of 2019, growth estimates based on limited data avail- ability for African coun
39、tries indicate a decrease of manufacturing output by 4.0 per cent. In the previous quarter, output dropped by 15.0 per cent. While Senegals and Rwandas manufac- turing output increased by 2.7 per cent and 5.9 per cent, respectively, that of Nigeria, Tunisia and South Africa dropped by 2.6 per cent,
40、3.1 per cent and 8.4 per cent, respectively. The manufacturing output of other devel- oping economies experienced a year-over-year growth in manufacturing production by 3.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, while suff ering a drop of 17.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Turkey, the largest ma
41、nufacturer in this group, registered a signifi cant rise in output of 8.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, following a drop of 17.5 per cent in the previous quarter. The majority of countries in this group reported varying and mostly negative growth rates in ma- nufacturing production. For ins
42、tance, manufac- turing output in Greece dropped by 1.6 per cent, in Croatia by 2.3 per cent, in Romania by 4.6 per cent and in Ukraine by 8.5 per cent. UNIDO Statistics7 Statistics for Quarter III 2020 Findings by industry group The growth rates of industries grouped by technological intensity have
43、experienced a de- clining trend since the beginning of 2018. Figure 7 illustrates this reduction in growth over recent quarters as well as the severe plunge due to the COVID-19 crisis. The three groupings according to technological intensity saw decreases in out- put of at least fi ve per cent in th
44、e fi rst and of at least ten per cent in the second quarter of 2020. In the current quarter, medium high- and high- technology industries, in particular, seem to be recovering faster, whereas the remaining indus- tries continue to register higher decreases. An overall decline of such magnitude was l
45、ast ob- served during the fi nancial crisis in 2008/2009, where noticeable decreases of at least fi ve per cent for four consecutive quarters were recorded. The growth rate of manufacturing output of medium-technology industries has deterio- rated since the beginning of 2019, resulting in negative y
46、ear-over-year growth rates of 1.6 per cent in the third quarter and 12.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. The output of medium high- and high- technology industries increased slightly by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, after plummeting by 10.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. In add
47、ition to the COVID-19 pandemic, uncer- tainties related to rising trade restrictions with a major infl uence on consumer decisions and de- mand are responsible for the gradual slowdown since 2018. The manufacturing of machinery or motor vehicles has seen large reductions in out- put over the last qu
48、arters. On the other hand, the output of computers, electronics and optical products, electrical equipment as well as phar- maceuticals increased by 5.7 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively. G G G GG G G G G G G G 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 QII 2019QIII 2019QIV 2019QI 2020QII 202
49、0QIII 2020 G G Mediumhigh and hightechnology Mediumtechnology Lowtechnology Figure 7: Growth of manufacturing industries by technological intensity, percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous year Figure 8 presents detailed growth rates of various industries by country group. Giv
50、en the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, the production UNIDO Statistics8 Statistics for Quarter III 2020 of essential goods and supplies, such as food or pharmaceutical products, was less aff ected than other industries.In the third quarter of 2020, the production of basic pharmaceuti- cals and computer and