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1、 2021Q3 1,314.03 35.96 91.44 126.00 6300 -35%- 30%- 25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2021/6/242021/7/82021/7/222021/8/52021/8/192021/9/22021/9/162021/9/302021/10/142021/10/282021/11/112021/11/252021/12/92021/12/23 300 棺 202123.64%20212019鴦 2021355.4120.8%11500232滮20253000衢踲 档 20202119壬2021棬20205.9229.416.62019
2、26%31%棬2022 19 2020 2021 2019202126.8939.1%201958.5%鷴仯2021棬2021141.371.733.6613.11.17.75202116121.439.9%1957.2%5.2201914.6%2022 K12 2021K12K9K12涼沢涨K9K9裬涨K12K122021 鷴 mNtNsQtNrNyQsQqMqRsOqN7N9R7NnPqQoMpNfQmMoPfQmMmQ9PoPpONZrQoRvPmPpO 3 . 5 . 8 2.1 . 8 2.2 . 10 2.3 19 . 15 K12 . 18 3.1 K12 . 18 3.2 K1
3、2 . 19 3.3 . 23 . 26 4 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 A . 6 4 . 7 5 . 7 6 2019-2021 . 9 7 2019-2021 . 9 8 2019-2021ADR/ . 11 9 2019-2021 OCC% . 12 10 2019-2021 RevPAR/ 12 11 2019-2020 . 13 12 2019-2020 . 13 13 2019-2021 . 13 14 2019-2020 . 14 15 2019-2020 . 14 16 2019-2020% . 14 17 2019-2020% . 14 18 2018-2021 . 16
4、19 2018-2021 . 17 20 A . 18 21 . 18 22 . 19 23 . 23 24/ . 24 25 2003-2020 IT . 25 26 2013-2022IT . 25 1 仯 . 20 2 . 21 3 . 22 5 20212021 1 1 12 13 23.64% 1 -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%豸 淿 Wind 10.05%18.99%24.38%0.95% 6 2 15.04%12 .44%0.95% 0.36%- 0.93%- 10.05%- 18.99%- 24.38%-30%-25%-20%-15%-1
5、0%-5%0%5%10%15%20% Wind 2021A 9.36%仦 300 6.91pct43.53%31.50pct73.67%50097.98pctK12K12 3 A -20%-15 %-10%-5%0%5%10%15%A 300 Wind 7 4 -50%-40 %-30%-20%-10%0%10%20% Wind 5 -100 %-80%-60%-40%-20 %0%20%40%60% 500 Wind 8 2.1 2021 355.4 120.8% 11 500 232 滮 2025 3000 衢踲 鲻2021355.4120.8%135.7+355.7%yoy132.0+1
6、92.2%yoy,887.82.0%513.184.5%130.8+1.4%yoy2021 14.7 +66.9%yoy 18 +61.6%yoy11 5002322022 9 6 2019-2021 -50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0204060800209720202020720209202032029 Wind 7 2019-2021 -50 %0%50%100%150%200%05002019
7、3209920203202052020720209202032029 Wind 20207 3 10 滮滮羳 2025 3000 1 2022 10%0-8000 衢 10 59滮塱裬()衣踲 2021495.0 40.9% 84.9 168.4% 11.7%40.2% 8 29200 2021 6 5 3 2.2 2020 21 19 壬2021 棬2020 5.9 229.4 16.6 2019 26% 31% 11 棬2022 ADR2021 2020 2019 RevPAR 2
8、021 Q2RevPAR20192019 91.4%99.6%2021 Q3鷴RevPARQ22020Q22019 70.9%82.3%2021 Q2Q3 ADR 2019 OCCRevPAR2019 8 2019-2021 ADR/ 050019Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 2 0 Q 2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 2 1 Q 2 21Q3 12 9 2019-2021 OCC% 02040608010019Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 10 2019-2021 RevPAR
9、/ 050Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 2 0 Q 2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 2020鵼塣2021棬202020195.9229.42021棬2020 16.6 201926%31%2021 789676560 2021棬60% 13 11 2019-2020 12 2019-2020 1 4 . 0 3 1 2 . 3 9 5 . 8 4 1 . 5 5 1 0 . 6 1 1 0 . 6 4 5 . 2 7 1 . 4 0 024681012141615 - 29 30 - 69 70 - 149 1
10、50 估2019 2020 284 543 564 371 218 469 510 336 0050060015 - 29 30 - 69 70 - 149 150 估2019 2020 , 13 2019-2021 02004006008000 2 0 1 9 Q 1 - 3 2 0 2 0 Q 1 - 3 2 0 2 1 0 Q 1 - 3 2021棬2020 229.4 207.221.62.82.36.121.32131717570 14 14 2019-2020 15 2019-2020 2 8 . 7 4 3 . 1 3 1 . 5 3
11、0 . 4 0 2 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 7 1 . 5 8 0 . 3 9 0552019 2020 1150 281 221 111 942 259 223 108 020040060080002019 2020 , 16 2019-2020% 17 2019-2020% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%15 - 29 30 - 69 70 - 149 150 估2019 2020 , 令 2021 83.5 19.2% 0.97 67.8%Re
12、vPAR 19 82.30%2021 棬 2021 47.3 32.15% 1.25 RevPAR1970.9% 15 20211291.3430921 2.3 19 2020 2021 2019 2021 26.89 39.1%201958.5%鷴仯2021棬2021 141.3 71.733.6613.11.17.752021 16 121.4 39.9% 19 57.2%5.2201914.6%2022 202120192020 21 19 202126.8939.1%201958.5%10.24247.1%8.4733.0%8.1818.3%2.3763.5% 2019 54.4% 8
13、79.68 17.5%20215.151.5%70.1%3890.614.7%59.9% 2021鷴仯2021棬2021 16 141.3 71.7 33.6613.11.17.753 2021202116121.439.9%1957.2%5.2201914.6% 2022 18 2018-2021 - 8 0 %- 6 0 %- 4 0 %- 2 0 %0%20%40%60%80%100%120%00708090100 Wind 17 19 2018-2021 - 3 0 0 %- 2 5 0 %- 2 0 0 %- 1 5 0 %- 1 0 0 %- 5 0 %0%-
14、 3 0- 2 0- 1 001020304050 Wind +顱2021 10.2 64.2% 4.3 223.4%2021 2019 80%+档 18 K12 3.1 K12 20212021 1112 13A9.36%仦 300 6.91pct 43.53% 31.50pct 73.67% 500 97.98pctK12 K12 K12K12A 20 A - 3 . 9 1 %- 3 7 . 3 4 %- 3 3 . 5 7 %- 2 6 . 8 4 %5 8 . 0 6 %7 . 6 9 %- 4 . 2 3 %- 6 0 %- 4 0 %- 2 0 %0%20%40%60%80% W
15、ind 21 - 5 5 . 7 0 %- 8 0 . 5 9 %- 6 7 . 5 7 %- 2 8 . 8 0 %- 4 4 . 2 2 %- 9 0 %- 8 0 %- 7 0 %- 6 0 %- 5 0 %- 4 0 %- 3 0 %- 2 0 %- 1 0 %0%K 1 2 K 1 2 Wind 19 22 - 7 7 . 8 6 %- 7 3 . 6 5 %- 7 9 . 0 7 % - 7 8 . 1 0 %- 1 5 . 1 9 %- 9 0 %- 8 0 %- 7 0 %- 6 0 %- 5 0 %- 4 0 %- 3 0 %- 2 0 %- 1 0 %0%K 1 2 K 1
16、 2 Wind 3.2 K12 2021K12K9K12涼沢涨K9K9裬涨 K12K122021 2021 5 14 7 24 1012 20 514 2018 壬淶沢涨沢沢涨 K9 1 仯 仯涨涨涨淶涨 档 涨淶涨棻 沢涨飬漰棻档淶涨İ 涨 , 顣淶 724 K12 K12 K9 裬 21 涨K12 2 1 3 飬 K 9 淶 沢 V IE 棬 棬 涨 塢塢档 濪1 1 2 3 漰 涨 10 12 20252035 22 3 + 廯 淶 滮廯滮滮衰 + + + 涨 缼2 0 2 5 躣裬 + 67顣12 20 佫顣76粿塱 4000 30%812塱36097%200 2
17、000 8 27 塱 23 3.3 15-45 廮 15-18 飻粿鼰飬18-21 翼IT 23 24 24/ IT IT IT IT 202097379IT177544IT壺IT仯 IT IT IT ITIT2022603 25 25 2003-2020IT 02 0 , 0 0 04 0 , 0 0 06 0 , 0 0 08 0 , 0 0 01 0 0 , 0 0 01 2 0 , 0 0 01 4 0 , 0 0 01 6 0 , 0 0 01 8 0 , 0 0 02 0 0 , 0 0 02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 IT Wind 26 2013-2022IT 83323754205006007002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022EIT IT IT202020214.9011.1% 0.64 361.2% 26 鷴 2022 2022 2022鸴 磬磬