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1、OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031OECDFAO Agricultural Outlook 20222031This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the Director-General of FAO.The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the M

2、embercountries of the OECD,or of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations or its members.The names of countries,maps and territories and territorial disclaimers used in this joint publication follow the practiceof FAO.Specific territorial disclaimers applicable to the OECDThis doc

3、ument,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Specific territorial disclaimers applicable to FAOThe designations emp

4、loyed and the presentation of material in the maps do not imply the expression of any opinionwhatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country,territory or sea area,orconcerning the delimitation of frontiers.Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border l

5、ines for which there maynot yet be full agreement.The position of the United Nations on the question of Jerusalem is contained in GeneralAssembly Resolution 181(II)of 29 November 1947,and subsequent resolutions of the General Assembly and theSecurity Council concerning this question.Please cite this

6、 publication as:OECD/FAO(2022),OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/f1b0b29c-en.ISBN 978-92-64-58870-7(print)ISBN 978-92-64-67537-7(pdf)ISBN 978-92-64-47372-0(HTML)ISBN 978-92-64-93536-5(epub)OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookISSN 1563-0447(print)ISSN 1999-

7、1142(online)FAOISBN 978-92-5-136313-3(print and pdf)Photo credits:Cover Original cover concept designed by Juan Luis Salazar.Adaptations by OECD.Corrigenda to publications may be found on line at:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.OECD/FAO 2022The use of this work,whether digital or print,

8、is governed by the Terms and Conditions to be found at https:/www.oecd.org/termsandconditions.3 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Foreword The Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)and the Food a

9、nd Agriculture Organization(FAO)of the United Nations.It brings together the commodity,policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national,regional and global agricultural comm

10、odity markets.The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.At the OECD,the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate:Marcel Adenuer,Annelies Deuss,Armelle Elasri(publication co-ordinator),Clara Frezal,Hu

11、bertus Gay(Outlook co-ordinator),Galle Gouarin,Lee Ann Jackson(Head of Division),Tatsuji Koizumi,Claude Nnert,Daniela Rodriguez Nio,and Grgoire Tallard of the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division,and for fish and seafood by Claire Delpeuch and Will Symes of the Agricultural Resources Policy Division

12、.The OECD Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by the visiting expert Eszter Palotai(Department for Environment,Food and Rural Affairs United Kingdom).The partial stochastic modelling builds on work by the Economics of Agriculture Unit of the European Commissions Joint Research Cen

13、tre.The organisation of meetings and publication preparation were provided by Carla Barisone,Caitlin Boros,Helia Mossavar-Rahmani and Michle Patterson.Wilfrid Legg provided language review for the publication.Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by Karine Lepr

14、on,Marc Regnier and Eric Espinasse.Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members

15、 of the Markets and Trade Division(EST)under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen(EST Division Director)and Josef Schmidhuber(EST Division Deputy Director),with the overall guidance of Mximo Torero(FAO Chief Economist)and by the Economic and Social Development Stream Management team.The core pro

16、jections team consisted of:Sergio Ren Araujo Enciso,Giulia Caddeo,Martina Guerra,Aikaterini Kavallari,Holger Matthey(Team Leader),Svetlana Mladenovic,and Irmak Yaka.For fish,the team consisted of Adrienne Egger,Pierre Charlebois and Stefania Vannuccini from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Division

17、.Advice on fishmeal and fish oil issues and historical data were provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation(IFFO).The section on cotton benefited from data and technical advice by Lorena Ruiz from the International Cotton Advisory Committee(ICAC).The section on bananas and ma

18、jor tropical fruits was contributed by Sabine Altendorf,Giuseppe Bonavita and Pascal Liu.Francesco Tubiello advised on greenhouse gas emissions.Commodity expertise was provided by ElMamoun Amrouk,Erin Collier,Shirley Mustafa,Fabio Palmeri,G.A.Upali Wickramasinghe,and Di Yang.Monika Tothova contribut

19、ed material and expertise to Box 1.1.Research assistance and database preparation were provided by David Bedford,Harout Dekermendjian,Annamaria Giusti,Grace Maria Karumathy,Yanyun Li,Lavinia Lucarelli,Emanuele Marocco,and Marco Milo.This edition also benefited from comments made by various colleague

20、s from FAO and member country institutions.The authors would like to thank Araceli Cardenas,Yongdong Fu,Jonathan Hallo,Jessica 4 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Mathewson,Kimberly Sullivan,and Ettore Vecchione for their invaluable assistance with publication and communication is

21、sues.Tracy Davids from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy(BFAP)led the drafting of the Regional Briefs.They were produced with generous support from the FAO Regional offices and national collaborators.Special thanks go to Mohammed Ahmed(RNE),Julio Berdegue(RLC),Cheng Fang(REU),Daniela Godoy

22、(RLC),Suffyan Koroma(RAF),Ahmad Mukhtar(RNE),Tamara Nanitashvili(RNE),Pablo Rabczuk(RLC)and David Dawe(RAP).Finally,information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee,International Dairy Federation,International Fertilizer Association,International Grains Council,Intern

23、ational Sugar Organization,Marine Ingredients Organisation(IFFO)and World Association of Beet and Cane Growers is gratefully acknowledged.The complete Agricultural Outlook,including the fully documented Outlook database that includes historical data and projections,can be accessed through the OECD-F

24、AO joint internet site:www.agri-outlook.org.The published Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 is available in the OECDs iLibrary and FAO Document Repository.5 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Table of contents Foreword.3 Abbreviations and acronyms.11 Executive Summary.17 1 Agricultura

25、l and food markets:Trends and prospects.20 Introduction.21 1.1.Macroeconomic and policy assumptions.28 1.2.Consumption.32 1.3.Production.45 1.4.Trade.58 1.5.Prices.68 1.6.Can Zero Hunger be achieved sustainably?.76 References.82 Notes.84 2 Regional briefs.85 2.1.Introduction.86 2.2.Regional Outlook:

26、Developed and East Asia.86 2.3.Regional outlook:South and Southeast Asia.95 2.4.Regional outlook:Sub Saharan Africa.102 2.5.Regional outlook:Near East and North Africa.111 2.6.Regional outlook:Europe and Central Asia.119 2.7.Regional outlook:North America.128 2.8.Regional outlook:Latin America and t

27、he Caribbean.137 References.145 Notes.147 3 Cereals.149 3.1.Projection highlights.150 3.2.Current market trends.152 3.3.Market projections.152 3.4.Risks and uncertainties.161 4 Oilseeds and oilseed products.163 4.1.Projection highlights.164 4.2.Current market trends.165 4.3.Market projections.166 4.

28、4.Risks and uncertainties.173 5 Sugar.175 5.1.Projection highlights.176 5.2.Current market trends.178 5.3.Market projections.178 6 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 5.4.Risks and uncertainties.187 Notes.188 6 Meat.189 6.1.Projection highlights.190 6.2.Current market trends.191 6.3

29、.Market projections.192 6.4.Risks and uncertainties.204 Notes.206 7 Dairy and dairy products.207 7.1.Projection highlights.208 7.2.Current market trends.210 7.3.Market projections.210 7.4.Risks and uncertainties.217 Note.218 8 Fish.219 8.1.Projections highlights.220 8.2.Current market trends.221 8.3

30、.Market projections.222 8.4.Production.225 8.5.Risks and uncertainties.230 Notes.231 9 Biofuels.232 9.1.Projection highlights.233 9.2.Current market trends.234 9.3.Market projections.235 9.4.Risks and uncertainties.241 Notes.243 10 Cotton.244 10.1.Projection highlights.245 10.2.Current market trends

31、.246 10.3.Market projections.247 10.4.Risks and uncertainties.253 Note.254 11 Other products.255 11.1.Roots and tubers.256 11.2.Pulses.258 11.3.Bananas and major tropical fruits.260 Note.263 Annex A.Glossary.264 Annex B.Methodology.268 Annex C.Statistical Annex.273 Tables Table 1.1.Relative change i

32、n global wheat prices:Scenarios with Aglink-Cosimo for marketing year 2022/23 25 Table 2.1.Regional Indicators:Developed and East Asia 94 Table 2.2.Regional Indicators:South and Southeast Asia 101 Table 2.3.Regional indicators:Sub Saharan Africa 110 7 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO

33、2022 Table 2.4.Regional indicators:Near East and Northern Africa 118 Table 2.5.Regional indicators:Europe and Central Asia 127 Table 2.6.Regional indicators:North America 136 Table 2.7.Regional Indicators:Latin America and Caribbean Region 143 Table 3.1.Rice per capita consumption 154 Table 6.1.Tren

34、ds in meat off-take ratios in selected countries 197 Table 6.2.Trends in non-ruminant Feed Conversion Ratios in selected countries 198 Table 9.1.Biofuel production ranking and major feedstock 236 Table 10.1.Sustainable and organic cotton production 251 Figures Figure 1.1.Market conditions for key co

35、mmodities 26 Figure 1.2.World population growth 28 Figure 1.3.Per capita income 30 Figure 1.4.Average annual GDP growth rates 30 Figure 1.5.Global use of major commodities 33 Figure 1.6.Annual growth in demand for key commodity groups 34 Figure 1.7.Regional contributions to food demand growth,2012-2

36、1 and 2022-31 35 Figure 1.8.Per capita calorie availability of the main food groups,by country income group 36 Figure 1.9.Global change in Indicators of the triple challenge:Sugar and fat scenario 38 Figure 1.10.Per capita protein availability,by country income group 39 Figure 1.11.Annual change in

37、feed use and livestock production,2022-2031 40 Figure 1.12.Structure of feed use,by country income group 41 Figure 1.13.Changes in biofuel consumption in key regions 43 Figure 1.14.Share of biofuel and other industrial uses in total use of agricultural commodities 43 Figure 1.15.Trends in global agr

38、icultural production 46 Figure 1.16.Sources of growth in crop production,2022 to 2031 47 Figure 1.17.Change in projected yields for selected crops and countries,2022 to 2031 48 Figure 1.18.Natural gas price vs.crude oil price,2014-16=100 49 Figure 1.19.Recent trends in fertiliser prices 49 Figure 1.

39、20.Change in agricultural land use 2019-21 to 2031 51 Figure 1.21.Change in cropland use,main crops,2019-21 to 2031 51 Figure 1.22.Global livestock and fish production on a protein basis 52 Figure 1.23.Global meat production in carcass weight equivalent 53 Figure 1.24.Changes in inventories of dairy

40、 herds and yields,2022 to 2031 54 Figure 1.25.Regional fish production 55 Figure 1.26.Direct GHG emission from crop and livestock production,by activity 56 Figure 1.27.Annual change in agricultural production and direct GHG emissions,2022 to 2031 57 Figure 1.28.Growth in trade volumes,by commodity 5

41、9 Figure 1.29.Share of production traded,by commodity 60 Figure 1.30.Net trade by region,in constant value 62 Figure 1.31.Trade as a share of total production and consumption by region,in calorie equivalents 64 Figure 1.32.Dispersion of freight rates by cargo and exporter over the long term(January

42、2007 December 2021)67 Figure 1.33.Share of freight rate in the cost and freight price,by commodity(January 2007 December 2021)67 Figure 1.34.Long-term evolution of commodity prices,in real terms 69 Figure 1.35.FAO Food Price Index 69 Figure 1.36.Medium-term evolution of crop-based commodity prices,i

43、n real terms 71 Figure 1.37.Cereals price ratios 71 Figure 1.38.Biofuel price ratios 72 Figure 1.39.Medium-term evolution of animal-based commodity prices,in real terms 72 Figure 1.40.Meat to feed price ratios 73 Figure 1.41.Dairy price ratios 74 Figure 1.42.Baseline and stochastic intervals for sel

44、ected international reference prices 75 Figure 1.43.Average per capita availability of main food groups(calorie equivalent),by country income group 77 Figure 1.44.Key results of the scenario analysis 79 Figure 1.45.Average yields for selected crops 79 Figure 1.46.Growth in global livestock productio

45、n and animal numbers 80 Figure 2.1.China a major driver of growth in agriculture and fish output in the Developed and East Asia region 91 Figure 2.2.Change in area harvested and land use in Developed and East Asia 92 8 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 2.3.Livestock product

46、ion in Developed and East Asia 92 Figure 2.4.Demand for key commodities,food availability and agricultural trade balances in Developed and East Asia 93 Figure 2.5.Slowing growth of agriculture and fish output in South and Southeast Asia region 98 Figure 2.6.Change in area harvested and land use in S

47、outh and Southeast Asia 99 Figure 2.7.Livestock production in South and Southeast Asia 99 Figure 2.8.Demand for key commodities,food availability and agricultural trade balances in South and Southeast Asia 100 Figure 2.9.Per capita net value of agriculture and fish production in Sub Saharan Africa 1

48、07 Figure 2.10.Fertiliser application per hectare of land used for crop production is low in Sub Saharan Africa,2017-19 average 107 Figure 2.11.Change in area harvested and land use in Sub Saharan Africa 108 Figure 2.12.Livestock production in Sub Saharan Africa 108 Figure 2.13.Demand for key commod

49、ities,food availability and agricultural trade balance in Sub Saharan Africa 109 Figure 2.14.Value of net food imports per capita in Near East and North Africa(including processed products)115 Figure 2.15.Self-sufficiency ratios for selected commodities in Near East and North Africa 115 Figure 2.16.

50、Change in area harvested and land use in Near East and North Africa 116 Figure 2.17.Livestock production in Near East and North Africa 116 Figure 2.18.Demand for key commodities,food availability and agricultural trade balance in Near East and North Africa 117 Figure 2.19.Net exports of agriculture

51、and fish products from Europe and Central Asia(including processed products)124 Figure 2.20.Change in area harvested and land use in Europe and Central Asia 125 Figure 2.21.Livestock production in Europe and Central Asia 125 Figure 2.22.Demand for key commodities,food availability and agricultural t

52、rade balance in Europe and Central Asia 126 Figure 2.23.Calories used in food,feed and other use in North America 132 Figure 2.24.Trends in export market shares of selected commodities of North America 133 Figure 2.25.Change in area harvested and land use in North America 134 Figure 2.26.Livestock p

53、roduction in North America 134 Figure 2.27.Demand for key commodities,food availability and agricultural trade balances in North America 135 Figure 2.28.Trends in export market shares of the Latin America and the Caribbean 140 Figure 2.29.Change in area harvested and land use in Latin America and th

54、e Caribbean 141 Figure 2.30.Livestock production in Latin America and the Caribbean 141 Figure 2.31.Demand for key commodies and food availability in Latin America and the Caribbean 142 Figure 3.1.Cereal net trade by continent 151 Figure 3.2.Global cereal demand concentration in 2031 153 Figure 3.3.

55、Global cereal use 153 Figure 3.4.Regional contribution of growth in cereal production,2019-21 to 2031 155 Figure 3.5.Global cereal production concentration in 2031 156 Figure 3.6.World cereal stocks and stocks-to-use ratios 157 Figure 3.7.Trade as a percentage of production and consumption 158 Figur

56、e 3.8.Global cereal trade concentration in 2031 159 Figure 3.9.World cereal prices 160 Figure 3.10.Real world maize price(left pane)and FAO food price index(right pane)162 Figure 4.1.Protein meal and vegetable oil production by type 164 Figure 4.2.Per capita food availability of vegetable oil in sel

57、ected countries 166 Figure 4.3.Share of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production 167 Figure 4.4.Average annual growth in protein meal consumption and animal production(2022-31)168 Figure 4.5.Oilseed crush by country or region 170 Figure 4.6.Oilseed production by region 171 Figure 4.7.Share of exp

58、orts in total production of oilseeds and oilseed products for the top three exporting countries 172 Figure 4.8.Exports of oilseeds and oilseed products by region 172 Figure 4.9.Evolution of world oilseed prices 173 Figure 5.1.Supply and demand of caloric sweeteners in main regions 177 Figure 5.2.Per

59、 capita consumption of caloric sweeteners 179 Figure 5.3.Carbohydrate consumption per capita and by type,in the different regions 180 Figure 5.4.World production of sugar crops classified according to their sub-product 182 Figure 5.5.Sugar production classified by traditional crops 183 Figure 5.6.Ra

60、w and white sugar imports for major countries and regions 185 Figure 5.7.Raw and white sugar exports for major countries and regions 185 9 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 5.8.Evolution of world sugar prices 186 Figure 6.1.Growth in meat production and per capita consumpti

61、on on a protein basis,2019-2021 to 2031 190 Figure 6.2.Change in Gross Domestic Product(GDP)and change in meat consumption.193 Figure 6.3.Meat consumption per capita:Continued rise of poultry,pig meat and fall of beef 194 Figure 6.4.Growth of meat production by region and meat type 195 Figure 6.5.Me

62、at GHG emissions intensity per regions 200 Figure 6.6.Major sources of methane average 2008-17 vs average 2000-09 201 Figure 6.7.Meat trade in value is dominated by beef and veal,but increasingly by poultry in quantity 202 Figure 6.8.World reference prices for meat-rising in nominal,but falling in r

63、eal terms 203 Figure 6.9.FAO Food Price Index for meat and its ratio to feed prices 204 Figure 7.1.Per capita consumption of processed and fresh dairy products in milk solids 208 Figure 7.2.Annual changes in inventories of dairy herd and yields between 2021 and 2031 212 Figure 7.3.Milk production an

64、d yield in selected countries and regions 213 Figure 7.4.Exports of dairy products by region 214 Figure 7.5.Imports of dairy products by region 215 Figure 7.6.Dairy product prices,2001-2031 216 Figure 8.1.Aquaculture to continue leading the growth in production 221 Figure 8.2.Growth in total and per

65、 capita food fish consumption 223 Figure 8.3.Feed consumption by type in the aquaculture sector 225 Figure 8.4.Growth in world aquaculture production by species 226 Figure 8.5.Exports of fish for human consumption 228 Figure 8.6.World Fish Prices 229 Figure 9.1.Biofuel demand trends in major regions

66、 233 Figure 9.2.Development of the world ethanol consumption 235 Figure 9.3.Development of the world biodiesel consumption 236 Figure 9.4.World biofuel production from traditional and advanced feedstocks 237 Figure 9.5.Biofuel trade dominated by a few global players 240 Figure 9.6.The evolution of b

67、iofuel prices and biofuel feedstock prices 241 Figure 10.1.Global players in cotton markets in 2031 246 Figure 10.2.Historical trends in consumption of textile fibres 247 Figure 10.3.Cotton mill consumption by region 248 Figure 10.4.World cotton production,consumption,and stocks 249 Figure 10.5.Cott

68、on yields and area harvested in major producing countries 250 Figure 10.6.Cotton exports in Sub-Saharan Africa 252 Figure 10.7.World cotton prices 252 Figure 11.1.Global players in roots and tubers markets in 2031 258 Figure 11.2.Per capita food consumption of Pulses per continent 260 Figure 11.3.Ma

69、jor Tropical Fruits:Global aggregate export volumes,2012-21 262 Boxes Box 1.1.Russias war against Ukraine 22 Box 1.2.Potential impact of dietary changes on the triple challenge facing food systems 37 Box 1.3.Rising input prices are raising concern for global food security 48 Box 1.4.Maritime transpo

70、rtation costs in the grains and oilseeds sector 66 Box 3.1.The role of Chinas net-feed-deficit for international grain markets 161 Box 6.1.Productivity change in the meat sector 197 Box 9.1.Biofuels at a glance 236 Box 9.2.Sustainable Aviation fuel(SAF)242 10 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 O

71、ECD/FAO 2022 https:/ FAO on:https:/ for the 12 at the bottom of the tables or graphs inthis book.To download the matching Excelspreadsheet,just typethe link into your Internet browser or click on the link from the digitalversion.This book has.A service that delivers Excelfiles fromthe printed page!F

72、ollow OECD Publications on:https:/ OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Abbreviations and acronyms AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AFOLU Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land Use AMIS Agricultural Market Information System ASF African Swine Fever B30 Alternative diesel fuel

73、consisting of regular petroleum diesel(70%)blended with biodiesel(30%)bln Billion bln L Billion litres bln t Billion metric tonnes BRICS Emerging economies of Brazil,Russian Federation,India,China and South Africa BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy CAP Common Agricultural Policy(European Union)CET

74、A Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement CIF Cost,insurance and freight COP21 21st Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change CPI Consumer Price Index CPTPP Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership c.v.Coefficient of v

75、ariation c.w.e.Carcass weight equivalent DDGs Dried Distillers Grains dw Dry weight dwt Dressed carcass weight EBA Everything-But-Arms Initiative(European Union)EISA Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007(United States)El Nio Climatic condition associated with the temperature of major sea curr

76、ents EPA US Environmental Protection Agency EPAs Economic Partnership Agreements ERS Economic Research Service of the US Department for Agriculture ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific est Estimate EU European Union(excludes the United Kingdom)EVs Electric Vehicles FAO Food

77、and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FDI Foreign Direct Investment FFV Flex-fuel Vehicles FOB Free on board(export price)FTA Free Trade Agreement g grams GDP Gross domestic product 12 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 GHG Greenhouse gas GIEWS Global Information and E

78、arly Warning System on Food and Agriculture GM Genetically modified GMO Genetically modified organism GSSE General Services Support Estimate GtCO2-eq Giga tons of CO2 equivalents ha Hectares HFCS High fructose corn syrup HORECA Hotel,restaurant and catering HSS Heavy grains,sorghum and soybeans ICAC

79、 International Cotton Advisory Committee IEA International Energy Agency IFA International Fertilizer Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IGC International Grains Council ILUC Indirect Land Use Change IMF International M

80、onetary Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISO International Sugar Organization IUU Illegal,unreported and unregulated(fishing)kg Kilogrammes kha Thousand hectares kt Thousand metric tonnes LAC Latin America and the Caribbean lb Pound(weight)LDCs Least Developed Countries LULUCF Lan

81、d use,land use change and forestry lw Live weight MBM Meat and bone meal MDER Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement MERCOSUR Mercado Comn del Sur/Common Market of South America Mha Million hectares Mn Million Mn L Million litres MPS Market Price Support Mt Million metric tonnes Mt CO2-eq Million metric

82、 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NENA Near East and North Africa NGO Non-governmental organization OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OIE World Organisation for Animal Health OLS Ordinary Least Squares p.a.Per annum PCE Private c

83、onsumption expenditure PoU Prevalence of undernourishment PPP Purchasing power parity PSA Partial stochastic analysis 13 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 PSE Producer Support Estimate R&D Research and development RECC Riz Economie Changement Climatique RED Renewable Energy Direct

84、ive(European Union)RFS/RFS2 Renewable Fuels Standard in the United States,part of the Energy Policy Act RTA Regional Trade Agreements r.t.c.Ready to cook r.w.e.Retail weight equivalent SAF Sustainable aviation fuel SDG Sustainable Development Goals SDG2 Sustainable Development Goal 2(zero hunger)SMP

85、 Skim milk powder SPS Sanitary and Phyto sanitary measures(WTO agreement)SSA Sub-Saharan Africa t Metric tonnes t/ha Metric tonnes/hectare TFP Total factor productivity tq Tel quel basis(sugar)TRQ Tariff rate quota UCO Used cooking oil UK United Kingdom UN The United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Co

86、nference on Trade and Development UNICEF United Nations Childrens Fund US United States USDA United States Department of Agriculture USMCA United StatesCanadaMexico Agreement WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization WMP Whole milk powder WTO World Trade Organization 14 OECD-FAO AGRICUL

87、TURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Currencies ARS Argentinean peso AUD Australian dollars BRL Brazilian real CAD Canadian dollar CLP Chilean peso CNY Chinese yuan renminbi EGP Egyptian pound EUR Euro(Europe)GDP British pound sterling IDR Indonesian rupiah INR Indian rupee JPY Japanese yen KRW Kore

88、an won MXN Mexican peso MYR Malaysian ringgit NZD New Zealand dollar PKR Pakistani rupee RUB Russian ruble SAR Saudi riyal THB Thai baht UAH Ukrainian grivna USD US dollar ZAR South African rand 15 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Summary table for country grouping in the Statist

89、ical Annex Region Category Countries North America Developed Canada,United States Latin America Developing Antigua and Barbuda,Argentina,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bolivia(Plurinational State of),Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,Cuba,Dominica,Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador,Grenada,Guatemala,Guy

90、ana,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Mexico,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Puerto Rico,Saint Kitts and Nevis,Saint Lucia,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,Suriname,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay,Venezuela(Bolivarian Republic of)Europe Developed Albania,Andorra,Belarus,Bosnia and Herzegovina,European Union1,Faroe

91、Islands,Iceland,Monaco,Montenegro,Norway,Republic of Moldova,Russian Federation,San Marino,Serbia,Serbia and Montenegro,Switzerland,Republic of North Macedonia,Ukraine,United Kingdom Africa Developed South Africa Developing Algeria,Angola,Benin,Botswana,Burkina Faso,Burundi,Cabo Verde,Cameroon,Centr

92、al African Republic,Chad,Comoros,Congo,Cte dIvoire,Democratic Republic of the Congo,Djibouti,Egypt,Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea,Eswatini,Ethiopia,Gabon,Gambia,Ghana,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Kenya,Lesotho,Liberia,Libya,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Rwan

93、da,Sao Tome and Principe,Senegal,Seychelles,Sierra-Leone,Somalia,South Sudan,Sudan,Togo,Tunisia,Uganda,United Republic of Tanzania,Western Sahara,Zambia,Zimbabwe Asia Developed Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Israel,Japan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan Developing Afghanistan,Bah

94、rain,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Hong Kong China,Macao China,The Peoples Republic of China,Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea,India,Indonesia,Iran(Islamic Republic of),Iraq,Jordan,Kuwait,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Lebanon,Malaysia,Maldives,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,Occupied Pale

95、stinian Territory,Oman,Pakistan,Philippines,Qatar,Korea,Saudi Arabia,Singapore,Sri Lanka,Syrian Arab Republic,Chinese Taipei,Thailand,Timor-Leste,Trkiye,United Arab Emirates,Viet Nam,Yemen Oceania Developed Australia,New Zealand Developing American Samoa,Cook Islands,Fiji,French Polynesia,Guam,Kirib

96、ati,Marshall-Islands,Micronesia(Federated States of),Nauru,New Caledonia,Niue,Palau,Papua New Guinea,Samoa,Solomon Islands,Tokelau,Tonga,Tuvalu,Vanuatu,Wallis and Futuna Islands LDC2 Afghanistan,Angola,Bangladesh,Benin,Bhutan,Burkina Faso,Burundi,Cambodia,Central African Republic,Chad,Comoros,Democr

97、atic Republic of the Congo,Djibouti,Eritrea,Gambia,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mozambique,Myanmar,Nepal,Niger,Rwanda,Sao Tome and Principe,Senegal,Sierra Leone,Somalia,South Sudan,Sudan,Timor-Leste,Togo,Uganda,United Republic

98、 of Tanzania,Zambia BRICS Brazil,The Peoples Republic of China,India,Russian Federation,South Africa 1.Refers to all current European Member states except the United Kingdom.2.Least Developed Countries(LDC)are a subgroup of developing countries.Source:FAO,http:/www.fao.org/faostat/en/#definitions.16

99、 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Summary table for regional grouping of countries Region Sub-region Countries Latin America and Caribbean Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Mexico,Paraguay,Peru South and Central America and the Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,

100、Bolivia(Plurinational State of),Costa Rica,Cuba,Dominica,Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador Grenada,Guatemala,Guyana,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Nicaragua,Panama,Puerto Rico,Saint Kitts and Nevis,Saint Lucia,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,Suriname,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay,Venezuela(Bolivarian Re

101、public of)North America Canada,United States Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia,Nigeria,South Africa Africa Least Developed Angola,Benin,Burkina Faso,Burundi,Central African Republic,Chad,Comoros,Democratic Republic of the Congo,Djibouti,Eritrea,Gambia,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi

102、,Mali,Mozambique,Niger,Rwanda,Sao Tome and Principe,Senegal,Sierra Leone,Somalia,South Sudan,Togo,Uganda,United Republic of Tanzania,Zambia Other Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana,Cabo Verde,Cameroon,Congo,Cte dIvoire,Equatorial Guinea,Eswatini,Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Mauritius,Namibia,Seychelles,Western Sahara

103、,Zimbabwe Europe and Central Asia European Union(Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden),Israel,Kazakhstan,Norway,R

104、ussian Federation,Switzerland,Trkiye,Ukraine,United Kingdom Eastern Europe Albania,Andorra,Belarus,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Faroe Islands,Iceland,Monaco,Montenegro,Republic of Moldova,San Marino,Serbia,Serbia and Montenegro,Republic of North Macedonia Central Asia Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kyrgyzstan

105、,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan Near East and North Africa Egypt,Saudi Arabia North Africa Least Developed Mauritania,Sudan,Sudan(former)Other North Africa Algeria,Libya,Morocco,Tunisia Other Western Asia Bahrain,Iraq,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Occupied Palestinian Territory,Oman,Qatar,Syrian Arab Re

106、public,United Arab Emirates,Yemen Asia Pacific Developed and East Asia Australia,China,Japan,New Zealand,Korea South and Southeast Asia India,Indonesia,Iran(Islamic Republic of),Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,Thailand,Viet Nam South and Southeast Asia -Asia Least Developed Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhut

107、an,Myanmar,Cambodia,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Nepal,Timor-Leste South and Southeast Asia -Other Developing Asia Brunei Darussalam,Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea,Hong Kong China,Macao China,Maldives,Federated States of Mongolia,Singapore,Sri Lanka,Chinese Taipei South and Southeast Asia -

108、Oceania American Samoa,Cook Islands,Fiji,French Polynesia,Guam,Kiribati,Marshall Islands,Micronesia,Nauru,New Caledonia,Niue,Palau,Papua New Guinea,Samoa,Solomon Islands,Tokelau,Tonga,Tuvalu,Vanuatu,Wallis and Futuna Islands 17 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Executive Summary T

109、he OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 provides a consensus-based assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national,regional,and global levels,and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning.The report is a collaborative effor

110、t between the OECD and FAO,prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations.It highlights fundamental economic and social trends driving the global agri-food sector assuming no major changes to weather conditions or policies.In this years Outlook,a scenario was ru

111、n to assess the level of productivity growth required to achieve the UNs Sustainable Development Goal 2(SDG-2)on Zero Hunger as well as a considerable reduction in agricultural greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions by 2030.Current international prices are high for most agricultural commodities due to the rec

112、overy in demand following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply and trade disruptions,which have been exacerbated by the Russian Federations(hereafter“Russia”)war against Ukraine(hereinafter referred to as“war”).The war is already having considerable impact on agricultural a

113、nd input markets,especially for grains and oilseeds,for which Russia and Ukraine are key exporters.The Outlook projections account for reduced production prospects in Ukraine,and reduced export availabilities from both Ukraine and Russia,in the marketing year 2022/23.The macroeconomic environment ov

114、er the next 10 years is also particularly uncertain.While the global economy is expected to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic,the war adds further uncertainty.In April 2022,the International Monetary Fund projected global GDP to grow at 2.7%p.a.,on average,over the next decade,which is below the pr

115、e-crisis projections.Moreover,the Outlook projections are made under the assumption that current high energy prices will adjust down by 2023 and remain fixed in real terms for the rest of the decade.Global food consumption,which is the main use of agricultural commodities,is projected to increase by

116、 1.4%p.a.over the next decade,and to be mainly driven by population growth.Most additional demand for food will continue to originate in low-and middle-income countries,while in high-income countries it will be constrained by slow population growth and a saturation in the per capita consumption of s

117、everal food groups.The projected evolution of diets continues to be largely determined by income levels in the coming decade.In high-income countries,heightened concerns about health and the environment are expected to result in a decline in per capita consumption of sugar and a sluggish growth in t

118、he consumption of animal protein.In contrast,consumers in middle-income countries are expected to increase their food consumption and the diversity of their diets,with growing shares of animal products and fats over the next ten years.Diets in low-income countries,however,will remain largely based o

119、n staples,and the projections suggest that food consumption will not increase sufficiently to meet SDG 2 on Zero Hunger by 2030.The Outlook highlights the strong contribution of low and middle-income countries to feed demand growth over the next decade,given the rapid expansion and intensification i

120、n their livestock production.In high-income countries and some upper-middle income countries,lower growth in livestock production and 18 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 improved feeding efficiency should result in slower growth in feed demand compared to last decade.The rebuildi

121、ng of pig herds following the African swine fewer(ASF)outbreak in The Peoples Republic of China,which is characterised by the installation of modern,feed-intensive production facilities,is assumed to lead to further intensification in feed use.Demand for first generation biofuel feedstocks is expect

122、ed to grow slowly over the next ten years,mainly due to declining fuel use and weaker policy incentives in key markets,such as the European Union.Most additional demand for biofuel feedstocks is expected to originate in India and Indonesia,driven by increasing fuel use,and efforts to support the dom

123、estic farm sector through higher biofuel blending rates and subsidies supporting domestic production.The biofuel share of global sugarcane use is projected to increase to 23%by 2031,while the biofuel share of maize is expected to decline.Over the next decade,global agricultural production is project

124、ed to increase by 1.1%p.a.,with the additional output to be predominantly produced in middle-and low-income countries.The Outlook assumes wider access to inputs as well as increased productivity-enhancing investments in technology,infrastructure,and training as critical drivers of agricultural devel

125、opment.However,a prolonged increase in energy and agricultural input prices(e.g.fertilisers)will raise production costs and may constrain productivity and output growth in the coming years.Investments in raising yields and improved farm management are foreseen to drive growth in global crop producti

126、on.Assuming continuing progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems,yield growth is projected to account for 80%of global crop production growth,cropland expansion for 15%,and increasing cropping intensity for 5%.Cropland expansion is expected to be regionally con

127、centrated in Asia,Latin America,and Sub-Saharan Africa.Similar to trends in crop production,a large share of the projected 1.5%annual growth in livestock and fish production will result from improvements in per-animal productivity,stemming from more efficient herd management and higher feed intensit

128、y.Poultry is projected to account for more than half of the global growth in meat production due to sustained profitability and favourable meat-to-feed price ratios.Global milk production is projected to grow strongly in the coming decade,with half of the growth originating in India and Pakistan.Des

129、pite its limited growth prospects,aquaculture is expected to overtake the global production volume of capture fisheries by 2023.The Outlook highlights the significant contribution of agriculture to climate change.Direct GHG emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 6%in the next decade

130、,with livestock accounting for 90%of this increase.Yet,agricultural emissions will grow at a lower rate than production,thanks to yield improvements and a reduction in the share of ruminant production,indicating a decline in the carbon intensity of agriculture.However,more efforts are needed for the

131、 agricultural sector to effectively contribute to global reductions in GHG emissions,as set out in the Paris Agreement on climate change.This includes large-scale adoption of climate-smart production processes and technologies,especially in the livestock sector.Agricultural trade is essential to ens

132、ure food security,diversification of diets,and better rural incomes in many regions.Globally,trade in the main agricultural commodities and processed products is projected to grow in line with production over the next decade.However,some regions are expected to export a growing share of their domest

133、ic production(e.g.Latin America and the Caribbean,Europe and Central Asia),while others are foreseen to import a growing share of their total consumption(e.g.Sub-Saharan Africa).This increasing interdependency between trading partners underscores the critical importance of a well-functioning,transpa

134、rent,and rules-based multilateral trading system.Transportation costs are a pivotal element in trade costs and have been increasing since mid-2020 due to rising oil prices and trade disruptions.Although vulnerable to uncertainty,the Outlook projections assume that trade facilitation costs return to

135、their pre-COVID-19 levels from 2022 onwards.19 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 The agricultural price projections presented in this Outlook result from the interplay of fundamental supply and demand factors under normal weather,macroeconomic and policy assumptions.Based on these

136、 fundamentals,the current price rally of agricultural commodities is projected to be temporary.While prices may remain high in the 2022/23 marketing year,they are expected to subsequently resume their long-term declining trend in real terms.The Outlook is based on the latest information available at

137、 the time of producing the baseline,but,naturally,there is unavoidably a degree of uncertainty attached to the projections and to the underlying assumptions.The Outlook projections suggest that,following a business-as-usual path,SDG 2 on Zero Hunger would not be achieved by 2030 and GHG emissions fr

138、om agriculture would continue to increase.To achieve the Zero Hunger target while simultaneously keeping agricultural emissions on track to reach the Paris Agreement targets,average global agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28%over the next decade.This is more than triple the increa

139、se recorded in the last decade.For crops,the necessary 24%increase in average global yields which acts as a proxy for crop productivity is close to double the increase achieved over the past decade(13%).Global animal productivity would have to increase by 31%,on average,vastly exceeding the growth r

140、ecorded during the last decade.Comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation and to enable the transfer of knowledge,technology,and skills are urgently required in order to put the agricultural sector on the necessary trajectory for sustainable productivity growth and the tran

141、sformation towards sustainable food systems.Additional efforts to reduce food loss and waste and limit excess calorie and protein intakes,particularly from animal sources,would also be necessary.20 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Following a description of the macroeconomic and

142、policy assumptions underlying the projections,including those related to Russias war against Ukraine,this chapter presents the main findings of the Agricultural Outlook.It highlights key projections for consumption,production,trade,and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2022 to 2031.

143、Agricultural demand growth is expected to slow down over the next decade and to be mainly driven by population growth.Varying income levels and income growth projections,as well as cultural preferences around diets and nutrition,will underlie continuing differences in consumption patterns between co

144、untries.The slower demand growth for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in crop and livestock production,which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat.International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries,and for rural

145、 livelihoods in food-exporting countries.At the end of the chapter,a scenario assesses the level of productivity growth required to achieve the UNs Sustainable Development Goal 2(SDG-2)on Zero Hunger as well as a considerable reduction in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.Over the next d

146、ecade,weather variability,animal and plant diseases,changing input prices,macro-economic developments and other uncertainties will result in variations around the projections.1 Agricultural and food markets:Trends and prospects 21 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Introduction The

147、 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).The Outlook presents a consistent baseline scenario for the evolution of agricultural commodity a

148、nd fish markets at national,regional,and global levels for the period 2022 to 2031.This baseline scenario incorporates the commodity,policy,and country expertise of both organisations,as well as input from collaborating Member countries and international commodity bodies.The baseline projections are

149、 based on the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model,which links sectors and countries covered in the Outlook to ensure consistency and global equilibrium across all markets.The projections are influenced by current market conditions(summarised in Figure 1.1),as well as assumptions about macroeconomic,demogra

150、phic,and policy developments,which are detailed in Section 1.2.The Russian Federations(hereafter“Russia”)war against Ukraine(hereinafter referred to as“war”)is already having considerable impact on agricultural markets,especially for grains and oilseeds,for which Russia and Ukraine are key exporters

151、(Box 1.1).In a number of International organisations,members have expressed their condemnation of Russias war against Ukraine(e.g.United Nations General Assembly and OECD),and/or affirmed the General Assembly resolutions adopted in this regard(e.g.FAO Council and Regional Conference for Europe).1 Th

152、e Outlook projections account for reduced production prospects in Ukraine,and reduced export availability from both Ukraine and Russia,in the marketing year 2022/23.The medium-term impact of the war cannot be assessed based on data that is currently available.The baseline of the Outlook serves as a

153、reference for forward-looking policy planning,and the underlying Aglink-Cosimo model allows simulation analysis,including the assessment of market uncertainties.A detailed discussion of the methodology of the projections,as well as documentation of the Aglink-Cosimo model,are available online at www

154、.agri-outlook.org.The Outlook contains four main parts:Part 1:Agricultural and food markets:Trends and prospects.Following the description of the macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections(Section 1.2),this chapter presents the main findings of the Outlook.It highlights key proj

155、ections and provides insights into the main outcomes and challenges facing agri-food systems over the coming decade.The chapter presents trends and prospects for consumption(Section 1.3),production(Section 1.4),trade(Section 1.5),and prices(Section 1.6).In Section 1.7,an illustrative scenario is use

156、d to assess the level of productivity growth required at the global level to eliminate hunger and reduce agricultural GHG emissions by 2030.Part 2:Regional briefs.This chapter describes key trends and emerging issues facing the agricultural sector in the six FAO regions,i.e.Asia and Pacific,which is

157、 split into Developed and East Asia(Section 2.2)and South and Southeast Asia(Section 2.3),Sub-Saharan Africa(Section 2.4),Near East and North Africa(Section 2.5),Europe and Central Asia(Section 2.6),North America(Section 2.7),and Latin America and the Caribbean(Section 2.8).It highlights the regiona

158、l aspects of production,consumption and trade projections and provides background information on key regional issues.Part 3:Commodity chapters.These chapters describe recent market developments and highlight medium term projections for consumption,production,trade,and prices for the commodities cove

159、red in the Outlook.Each chapter concludes with a discussion of the main issues and uncertainties that might affect markets over the next ten years.This part consists of nine chapters:cereals(Chapter 3),oilseeds and oilseed products(Chapter 4),sugar(Chapter 5),meat(Chapter 6),dairy and dairy products

160、(Chapter 7),fish(Chapter 8),biofuels(Chapter 9),cotton(Chapter 10),and other products(Chapter 11).22 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Part 4:Statistical Annex.The statistical annex presents projections for production,consumption,trade and prices for agricultural commodities,fish

161、and biofuels,as well as macroeconomic and policy assumptions.The evolution of markets over the outlook period is described using annual growth rates and data for the final year(2031)relative to a three-year base period(2019-21).The statistical annex is not part of the printed version of the Outlook

162、but can be accessed online.Box 1.1.Russias war against Ukraine Russias war against Ukraine(hereinafter referred to as“war”),including the annexation of Crimea,started in 2014.Policy responses and their economic consequences have shaped global agricultural markets since then.Previously significant,Ru

163、ssian imports of meat,dairy products,as well as fruits and vegetables,from the European Union,North America and several other countries opposing the 2014 annexation virtually ceased as a result of an import ban.On 24 February 2022,this long-standing situation escalated into an open war when Russia i

164、nvaded Ukraine,further affecting global markets and threatening global food security at the time of already elevated global commodity prices.Importance of Ukraine and Russia for global agricultural markets Ukraine and Russia are among the most important producers and exporters of arable crops in the

165、 world,particularly of wheat,barley,maize,sunflower seed and rapeseed.Production of animal commodities,however,mainly supplies their domestic markets.Based on the average of the last five seasons,Russia and Ukraine accounted for 10%and 3%of global wheat production,respectively.Russia and Ukraine are

166、 the first and fifth largest wheat exporters,accounting for 20%and 10%of global exports,respectively.Both countries also play a critical role in supplying wheat to global markets,including to the Near East and North Africa region,where wheat is the main staple food.Russia and Ukraine account for 20%

167、of global barley production,and are the third and fourth largest exporters,respectively.A large share of the barley produced in both countries is used as feed in domestic animal husbandry.Ukraine is the worlds largest producer of sunflower seed,followed by Russia.Together,they account for more than

168、50%of the global production.Most of the production is crushed domestically into sunflower oil and meal.Sunflower oil is also exported to the global market,making Ukraine the fourth largest exporter of vegetable oil.For rapeseed,maize and soybean,Ukraine and Russia account for less than 5%of global p

169、roduction,with Ukraine having the larger share.As domestic consumption is limited,most of their production is exported;Ukraine is the third largest exporter of both maize and rapeseed.Ukraine is also the largest exporter of soybean outside the Americas.For all three products,Ukraine plays a specific

170、 role in global markets,as it is the largest non-GMO exporter and an important exporter of organic feed.Developments in global input markets Russia also plays an important role in global energy and fertiliser markets.Russia is the worlds top natural gas exporter,second-largest oil exporter,and the t

171、hird coal exporter;accounting for 10%,11%and 18%of global exports,respectively,in 2021(FAO,20221).Russia is also the worlds top exporter of nitrogen fertilisers,the second leading exporter of potassic fertilisers,and the third leading exporter of phosphorous fertilisers(FAO,20221),accounting for ove

172、r 15%of total global fertiliser exports in 2020(UNTAD,20222).23 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Global energy and fertiliser prices increased from their already high levels due to the war against Ukraine and the resulting uncertainty related to the availability of Russian energy

173、 and fertiliser globally.As the agri-food sector is highly-energy intensive,rising energy and fertiliser prices are translating into higher production costs and contributing to food price increases,as discussed in Box 1.4.Impact on Ukrainian production and exports of agricultural commodities As of M

174、ay 2022,8 million people are internally displaced in Ukraine and 6.3 million people fled Ukraine following the start of the war,while 1.9 million Ukrainians have returned to Ukraine during the same period(UNHCR,20223).This large number of displaced people raises significant food security concerns.Fo

175、r internally displaced people,in particular,domestic logistics channels have to be maintained to provide food and other essential goods and services,including in the areas where a large number of people sought refuge from active fighting.Many initiatives are focusing on addressing these food securit

176、y needs,both through the direct supply of food and through efforts to ensure distribution channels remain open.Ukrainian farmers have shown a high degree of resilience to the disruptions caused by the war and,agricultural field security conditions permitting,are continuing to produce crops and lives

177、tock products.At about 9 Mha,the area planted with winter crops in autumn 2021 reached levels similar to the 2020 season,with some shifts away from wheat and barley to rapeseed.As of May 2022,winter crop climatic conditions are favourable and,as per agricultural calendar,will require fertiliser appl

178、ication and other maintenance before the harvest starts in late June 2022.The sowing of the 2022 spring crops is nearing completion,with levels expected to be about 20%below last year,especially for the main spring crops i.e.sunflower seed,maize and spring barley.Overall,a smaller harvest is expecte

179、d due to,among other factors,direct damages on winter crops caused by active fighting,remnants of the war preventing planting of the spring crops,and high input costs.Preliminary forecasts suggest reductions of more than 30%compared to the 2021 harvest(FAO,20221)(USDA,20224)but still production is e

180、xpected to exceed domestic requirements.The monitoring of animal production is considerably less detailed than that of crops but famers are also continuing to produce.However,the war is likely to affect Ukraines ability to control animal diseases,notably the African swine fever(ASF),significantly in

181、creasing the risk of disease proliferation within Ukraine and in neighbouring countries.As more than half of the crop production of Ukraine is exported,logistics of the export supply chain play a vital role.Any disruptions could result in substantial export losses.In the past,over 90%of Ukraine crop

182、 exports were channelled through seaports at the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.These ports are currently not accessible due to the ongoing war.Other export channels road,rail and river ports do not have the capacity to handle the same quantities as maritime ports.Therefore,current industry estimates

183、 suggest that current exports can only reach 20%of normal export quantities.National and global efforts are under way to increase the capacities of alternative export channels,and to find other outlets.Yet larger quantities than usual remained in storage as current logistics constraints have limited

184、 exports of the 2021 harvest.The upcoming harvest in June-September 2022 will rapidly produce large quantities that will also need to be stored to avoid significant losses.In addition,some storage and processing facilities have been damaged,further delaying and constraining exports.Impact on Russian

185、 exports of agricultural commodities The 2021 Russian wheat harvest was below average due to adverse weather in the growing period.As a result,Russia imposed export restrictions,including export taxes,on its wheat before the start of the war.The war led to reduced access to ports,especially at the S

186、ea of Azov,and an increase in export restrictions.However,some export flows from Russia have continued.Sanctions imposed on Russia 24 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 have so far not targeted agricultural trade but many international companies,including those active in the agribu

187、siness sector,have reduced their engagement in Russia.Financial sanction,insurance classification,and other economic uncertainties have led to a price discount for Russian wheat compared to other origins.Moreover,any loss of export markets for agricultural commodities could depress farmer incomes,th

188、ereby negatively affecting future planting decisions.Russian agriculture depends on imports of pesticides,veterinary medicines and agricultural technology(e.g.machinery and software).Reduced access to these inputs could affect the future production potential of Russian agriculture.Global food securi

189、ty impacts Consumers in many countries depend on cereal,especially wheat and oilseed imports from Ukraine and Russia.Moreover,many farmers rely on Russia for fertiliser exports.The majority of the wheat and a large share of other commodities distributed by the World Food Programme(WFP)was sourced fr

190、om Ukraine.Market balances as of April 2022 by the G-20s Agricultural Market Information System(AMIS)suggest globally sufficient supplies of wheat and other monitored commodities,although markets remain tight,and any shocks are reflected in the balances.Nevertheless,adjustments in trade flows and in

191、creasing energy costs are leading the increases in international agricultural commodity prices.In March 2022,the FAO Food Price Index(FFPI)reached its highest level on record since 1990,at 159.7 points.The FFPI retreated slightly in April 2022,to 158.5 points,though still 30%above its value in the c

192、orresponding month in the previous year(FAO,20225).Particularly exposed to price hikes are vulnerable populations,which spent a large share of their income to food,particularly in the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries(LIFDCs).Given necessary adjustments to global cereal trade to find alternative sup

193、plies should exports from Ukraine,and to a lesser extent from Russia,remain disrupted,it is important to keep trade in food and fertilisers open to prevent the war from negatively affecting global production and consumption needs.Any policy measures put in place as a response to high prices must be

194、carefully weighed against their potential detrimental effect on international markets in the short term and over the longer term.In addition,global market transparency plays a key role when agricultural commodity markets need to adjust to shocks affecting supply and demand.Initiatives like AMIS play

195、 a critical role in improving market transparency.The war and its economic implications on the world economy are the main uncertainties around the baseline projections in this years Outlook,particularly for the first years of the projection period.The Outlook only accounts for the impact of the war

196、in the marketing year 2022/23 and assumes that the recovery starts thereafter.The medium-term impacts of the war on agricultural markets cannot be assessed based on data that is currently available.Several scenarios have been conducted with the Aglink-Cosimo model that assume different impacts on th

197、e harvest and export levels of all crops in Ukraine,and on the export levels of wheat in Russia for the next marketing season(2022/23).Table 1.1 shows the impact of these scenarios on the international wheat price.The full loss of Ukraine capacity to export would lead to a 19%increase in the global

198、wheat price.This highlights the importance of maintaining Ukraines production and export capacity.In the extreme scenario where Russian exports are also affected,wheat prices would be 34%higher than without the war.In this scenario,Russia and Ukraine would jointly export 36 Mt less wheat,but other c

199、ountries would increase their exports by 16 Mt due to the higher international prices.25 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Table 1.1.Relative change in global wheat prices:Scenarios with Aglink-Cosimo for marketing year 2022/23 Restriction of wheat exports by Russia 0%-10%-25%-50%

200、Reduction of Ukraine exports 0%0 2%5%11%-25%4%6%10%16%-50%9%11%15%21%-100%19%22%26%34%Note:The upper left cell in the table refers to the hypothetical situation where exports from both countries are at the same levels as in the past years,not the data presented in the Outlook.Vertically,the producti

201、on and export of cereals in Ukraine are reduced.Horizontally,the wheat exports of Russia are restricted.Source:OECD(2022),Scenario calculation with Aglink-Cosimo.In a separate analysis,based on the development of international prices and the price transmission,the(FAO,20221)projects undernourishment

202、 to increase by about 1%globally in 2022/23,which is equivalent to between about 8 and 13 million people,depending on the assumed severity of the export reduction.A scenario simulating a severe export shortfall from Ukraine and Russia in 2022/23 and 2023/24,and assuming no global production response

203、,suggests an increase in the number of undernourished by close to 19 million people in 2023/24.This adds to the recent increase in global undernourishment following the COVID-19 pandemic.The described impacts are based on the current situation and only take into account the impact of the war during

204、the marketing years 2021 and 2022.Any prolongation of the war beyond 2022 will add additional complexity to the situation and uncertainty to the ten-year projections.26 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 1.1.Market conditions for key commodities Real Price IndexAverage 2012-

205、2021=100Average 2012-2021=100Cereal:Cereal prices have been increasing since mid-2020,continuing in the 2021/2022 marketing season.Wheat prices increased strongly,following reduced harvests in major producing countries as well as reduced exports from Ukraine.While coarse grain prices also increased

206、strongly,international rice prices in 2021 were on average 4%below their 2020 level as a result of ample supplies.Meat:International meat prices trended upward in 2021,reflecting higher demand due to the economic recovery,and higher marketing and transport costs.However,the meat to feed price ratios

207、 fell significantly,putting pressure on sectoral profitability.The ongoing recovery from ASF in China was the largest driver of growth in global meat markets.Oilseed:International prices for oilseeds have continued to climb,supported by strong demand for soybean from China amid reduced global produc

208、tion.The rapeseed harvest in Canada is low,while soybean in Latin America was affected by drought and palm oil in Malaysia is still impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions.Food price inflation is hampering growth in demand for oilseed products.Sugar:Global sugar consumption continues to reboun

209、d from the COVID-19 related downturn,while supply is recovering thanks to better weather conditions in some key producing countries,with the exception of the worlds main supplier,Brazil.The surge in crude oil prices is increasing competition from sugarcane-based ethanol production in Brazil and supp

210、orting higher international prices of sugar.Current market conditionsConsumption index60801920202021Cereal Consumption60801920202021Cereal Prices60801920202021Oilseed Consumption60801920202021Oilseed Prices60801920202021Sugar Consumption60801001

211、202021Sugar prices60801920202021Meat Consumption60801920202021Meat Prices 27 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Note:All graphs expressed as an index where the average of the past decade(2012-2021)is set to 100.Consumption refers to global consumpti

212、on volumes.Price indices are weighted by the average global production value of the past decade as measured at real international prices.More information on market conditions and evolutions by commodity can be found in the commodity snapshot in the Annex and the online commodity chapters.Source:OECD

213、/FAO(2022),OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/unce41 Dairy:Despite lockdowns and transport disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic,the dairy sector has been resilient.Growth in the consumption of dairy products has resumed,supported by

214、 strong demand from Asian countries and to a lesser extent the Middle East.Prices of dairy products,which had fallen in 2020,rebounded in 2021,driven by Chinese import demand for cheese and milk powders,met by exports from New Zealand and the European Union.Fish:Efforts to mitigate the spread of COV

215、ID-19 resulted in reduced demand for fish,and disruptions in production,supply chains and markets during 2020.In 2021,consumption rebounded,particularly strongly in Europe and America.The rapid reopening of economies after lockdowns leads to a significant recovery in prices of fish products in 2021.

216、Biofuels:Supported by the economic recovery,demand for fossil fuels,and higher blending mandates in some countries,biofuel consumption is recovering from the drop in demand in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.However,costs of raw materials and production are high,which erodes the profitabilit

217、y of biofuels production,such as biodiesel in Argentina.Biofuel prices were historically high in 2021.Cotton:International prices of cotton increased in 2021,continuing the upward trend that began in May 2020.In early 2022,cotton prices averaged nearly 50%above their 2021 levels.Strong prices were m

218、ainly a result of consumption increases in most major textile-producing countries.60801920202021Dairy Consumption60801920202021Dairy Prices60801920202021Fish Consumption60801920202021Fish(traded)price60801920202021Biofuel Consumption608010012014

219、0201920202021Biofuel Prices60801920202021Cotton consumption60801920202021Cotton Prices28 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 1.1.Macroeconomic and policy assumptions 1.1.1.Main assumptions underlying the baseline projections This Outlook presents a consistent b

220、aseline scenario for the medium-term evolution of agricultural and fish commodity markets based on a set of macro-economic,policy and demographic assumptions.The main assumptions underlying the projections are highlighted in this section.Detailed data are available in the Statistical Annex.1.1.2.Pop

221、ulation growth The Outlook uses the UN Medium Variant set of estimates from the 2019 Revision of the United Nations Population Prospects database.Over the projection period,world population is expected to grow from 7.8 billion in 2021 to 8.6 billion people in 2031.This corresponds to an average annu

222、al growth rate of 0.9%,a slowdown compared to the 1.1%p.a.rate experienced over the last decade.Population growth is concentrated in developing regions,particularly Sub-Saharan Africa,which is expected to have the fastest growth at 2.5%p.a.over the coming decade(Figure 1.2).With a population of 1.51

223、 billion people in 2031,India is expected to overtake the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)as the most populous country of the world.Figure 1.2.World population growth Note:SSA is Sub-Saharan Africa;LAC is Latin America and Caribbean;ECA is Europe and Central Asia;NENA stands for Near East

224、 and North Africa,and is defined as in Chapter 2;Rest of Asia is Asia Pacific excluding China and India.Source:OECD/FAO(2022),OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/7rgkva 1.1.3.GDP growth and per capita income growth National GDP and per capi

225、ta income estimates for the coming decade are based on the IMF World Economic Outlook(April 2022).Per capita incomes are expressed in constant 2010 US dollars.After a rebound of 5.4%in 2021 following the 2020 recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic,global GDP growth is expected to slowdown in 2022 an

226、d 2023 and to stabilise at an average rate of 2.7%over the next 00.511.522.53SSAIndiaChinaOECDWorldAnnual growth 2012-21Annual growth 2022-31%(b)Annual population growth00708090200320072002320272031North Amer.ECANENALACRest of AsiaChinaIndiaSSAMillion(a)Year-on-year population

227、changes 29 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 decade.However,the path of recovery is expected to differ among countries and regions.The economies of Asia Pacific,North America,and Sub-Saharan Africa had already recovered to their pre-COVID-19 levels in 2021.In Latin America and the

228、 Caribbean,Europe and Central Asia,and Near East and North Africa,GDP is projected to return to the 2019 value in 2022.Over the period 2022-31,GDP will continue to grow strongly in the Asia Pacific region,in particular in India,China and Southeast Asia,at an average of about 4%p.a.In Sub-Saharan Afr

229、ica,and Near East and North Africa,average GDP growth of 4%p.a.and 3%p.a.,respectively,is projected over the next ten years.Lower average GDP growth is expected overall in OECD economies,at 1.8%p.a.National average per-capita income is approximated in this Outlook using per capita real GDP(Figure 1.

230、3).This indicator is used to represent household disposable income,which is one of the main determinants of demand for agricultural commodities.As shown in the World Banks Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 report,however,national economic growth is unevenly distributed.In particular,in several Sub-

231、Saharan African countries the incomes of the poorest 40%of the population have lagged average income growth.For this reason,national average food demand projections in this Outlook can deviate from what might be expected based on average income growth.In addition,the COVID-19 pandemic has deepened i

232、ncome inequalities within countries.In 2020-21,the annual growth rate in per capita income of the poorest 40%of the population declined sharply in all economies(compared to 2012-17 period).After falling in 2020,global per capita income increased by 4.4%in 2021 but is expected to slow down in 2022 an

233、d 2023.Over the next decade,an average annual growth rate of 1.8%in real terms is projected.Strong growth is expected in Asia,with per capita income increasing by 5.3%p.a.in India,and by 4.8%p.a.in China.Growth in per capita income is also expected to be strong in Viet Nam,at 5.8%p.a.,and in the Phi

234、lippines,Indonesia,and Thailand at 4.9%,4.2%and 3.1%p.a.,respectively.In Sub-Saharan Africa,average per capita incomes are projected to grow slowly at 1.3%p.a.over the coming decade.Real per capita income is projected to stagnate in Nigeria and South Africa but to be robust in Ethiopia,at 3.5%p.a.In

235、 the Latin America and the Caribbean,average per capita income growth is projected at 1.6%p.a.,driven by high growth in Colombia,Paraguay,and Chile at 2.9%p.a.,2.4%p.a.and 2%p.a.,respectively,while an average annual growth rate of 1.5%and 1.7%is expected in Brazil and Argentina,respectively.In the N

236、ear East and North Africa region,average per capita income growth is projected at 1.6%p.a.,led by the Near East region,especially Jordan,and the Emirates at 2.7%and 3.1%p.a.,respectively.Strong growth in per capita income is also expected in Egypt,at 3.8%p.a.,while in Saudi Arabia per capita income

237、is expected to grow at 1.6%p.a.over the next ten years.Average per capita incomes are expected to rise by 1.8%p.a.and 1.3%p.a.in Europe and Oceania,respectively,to 2031.These growth rates are in line with the OECD average,where per capita income is projected to increase at around 1.3%p.a.Among OECD

238、countries,the highest growth is expected for Colombia,followed by Trkiye and Korea at 2.9%,2.6%and 2.5%p.a.respectively,while per capita incomes are expected to grow slowest in Canada at 0.9%p.a.In the European Union,the United States and Japan,per capita incomes are projected to increase at 1.8%,1.

239、2%and 1.1%p.a.,respectively.30 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 1.3.Per capita income Note:SSA is Sub-Saharan Africa;LAC is Latin America and Caribbean;SEA is Southeast Asia;NENA stands for Near East and North Africa,and is defined as in Chapter 2.The graph shows per capit

240、a GDP in constant 2010 US dollars.Source:OECD/FAO(2022),OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/vkt8gx Figure 1.4 decomposes the GDP growth projections into per capita GDP and population growth for key regions and selected countries.Globally,ec

241、onomic growth will be mainly driven by per capita income growth.This is especially the case in OECD countries and China.By contrast,high population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa means that the relatively high rate of economic growth in the region(3.8%p.a.)corresponds to only a modest growth in per ca

242、pita terms(at around 1.3%p.a.).The same applies to a lesser extent in the Near East and North Africa region.By contrast,the modest economic growth in Europe at 1.7%p.a.,where population is expected to decrease over the next ten years,translates into a per capita income growth rate of 1.8%p.a.over th

243、e coming decade.Figure 1.4.Average annual GDP growth rates Note:SSA is Sub-Saharan Africa;LAC is Latin America and Caribbean;SEA is Southeast Asia;NENA stands for Near East and North Africa,and is defined as in Chapter 2.Source:OECD/FAO(2022),OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook,OECD Agriculture statistics

244、(database).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/tqxgch 0070IndiaChinaSSALACSEAOceaniaNENAEuropeNorth AmericaWorld000 USDaverage -2-101234567IndiaChinaSSALACSEAOceaniaNENAEuropeNorth AmericaWorldPer capita GDP growth 2022-31Population growth 2022-31GDP growth 2012-21%31 OECD-FAO AGRICULT

245、URAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 1.1.4.Exchange rates and inflation Exchange rate assumptions are based on the IMFs World Economic Outlook(April 2022).Nominal exchange rates against the US dollar are primarily determined by differences in inflation against the United States.With high inflation ex

246、pected in Argentina,Egypt and Ethiopia in particular,the currencies of these countries should depreciate significantly in nominal terms.In real terms,exchange rates are assumed to be more stable for the period 2022-31;but some currencies should appreciate significantly against the US dollar,such as

247、those of Chile,Nigeria,Brazil and China.On the other hand,a significant depreciation in real terms is expected for India.Inflation projections are based on the private consumption expenditure(PCE)deflator from the IMF World Economic Outlook(April 2022).In OECD countries,inflation is projected to be

248、significantly higher than in the previous decade,at 5.2%p.a.,with a very high annual inflation rate of 15.8%p.a.in Trkiye,and an average rate of 2.1%p.a.for the United States,2%p.a.for Canada,and 2.1%p.a.for the Euro zone.Among emerging economies,consumer price inflation is expected to remain high a

249、t 9%p.a.in Argentina,despite a strong decrease compared to the previous decade.Inflation should ease in India from 4.9%p.a.to 3.9%p.a.and in Brazil,from 6%p.a.to 3%p.a.By contrast,China should experience the same rate of consumer price inflation(2%p.a.)as over the last decade.Inflation is projected

250、to remain high in Sub-Saharan Africa(Ethiopia 13.4%p.a.,Nigeria 10.7%p.a.and Ghana 6.3%p.a.).High inflation is also expected in Egypt(7.2%p.a.)and Pakistan(6.5%p.a.).1.1.5.Input costs Production projections in the Outlook incorporate a composite cost index,which covers seed,energy and fertiliser,as

251、well as various other tradable and non-tradable inputs.It is constructed on the basis of historical cost shares for each country and commodity,which are held constant for the duration of the outlook period.Energy costs are represented by the international crude oil price expressed in domestic curren

252、cy.The progression of costs of tradable inputs such as machinery and chemicals is approximated by the evolution of the real exchange rate,while the costs of non-tradable inputs(mainly labour)are approximated by changes in the GDP deflator.Seed prices follow the respective crop prices,while an aggreg

253、ate fertiliser price is approximated by a formula that takes both crop and crude oil prices into account.Historical data for world oil prices are based on Brent crude oil prices in 2020 from the short-term update of the OECD Economic Outlook N110(December 2021).For 2021,the annual average daily spot

254、 price in 2021 was used.For 2022,an estimate based on the situation in April 2022 is used.For the remainder of the projection period,the reference oil price used in the projections is assumed to follow the growth rate of the World Bank average oil price,which implies an increase from USD 71/barrel i

255、n 2021 to USD 89/barrel in nominal terms in 2031,and decrease in real terms to USD 56/barrel in 2031.1.1.6.Policy assumptions Policies play a significant role in agricultural,biofuel and fisheries markets such that policy reforms may trigger changes in market structures.The Outlook projections are m

256、ade under the assumption that policies currently in place will remain unchanged throughout the projection period,thus providing a useful benchmark for the evaluation and analysis of future policy changes.The projections of the Outlook do not take into account the planned reform of the European Union

257、(EU)Common Agricultural Policy(CAP),as the European Commission is still reviewing Members States strategic plans,which describe how the CAP and Green Deal objectives will be achieved.As National Strategic plans will enter into force at the beginning of 2023,for this Outlook a continuation of current

258、 agricultural and trade policies in the European Union is assumed over the projection period.32 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 The relationship between the EU-27 and the United Kingdom(UK)is based on the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement provisionally applied from 1 January

259、 2021.A duty-free/quota-free trade relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom is assumed,with some short-term trade disruptions due to additional border checks and logistical issues considered only for the 2022 projections.The free trade agreements considered in the Outlook are t

260、hose ratified by the end of December 2021(e.g.Association of Southeast Asian Nations,United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,African Continental Free Trade Area)while others(e.g.Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,EU-Mercosur)are considered as pending.The COVID-19 pandemic has added a signific

261、ant additional element of uncertainty to the macroeconomic assumptions underlying the projections of the Outlook.Although the assumptions suggest a continuation of the global economic recovery in the coming period,the actual pace will largely depend on the evolution of coronavirus outbreaks(e.g.spre

262、ad of new variants)and vaccination rates,as well as policies that support the recovery of businesses and consumer demand.The Outlook assumes that the restrictive measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic will not be permanent and will be lifted as part of the economic recovery in 2022.

263、1.2.Consumption The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook projects future trends in the use of the main crop commodities(cereals,oilseeds,roots and tubers,pulses,sugar cane and sugar beet,palm oil and cotton),livestock products(meat,dairy,eggs and fish),2 and their by-products3 as food,animal feed,raw mater

264、ials for biofuels and other industrial uses.For most commodities,food is the main component of overall use.However,non-food uses,mainly feed and fuel,are also important for several commodities(Figure 1.5).Future demand for food is directly influenced by population and demographic changes,by income g

265、rowth and distribution,and by food prices.Food demand will also be shaped by socio-cultural and lifestyles changes,including urbanisation and rising female participation in the workforce,as well as increasing consumer awareness of health and sustainability issues.Policies altering the price of agric

266、ultural products(e.g.fiscal measures,border measures)and,as far as possible,policies influencing consumption patterns(e.g.food labelling,regulations)are also considered.Taken together,these factors will determine the level and structure of food demand over the next decade.Demand for non-food uses of

267、 agricultural commodities is also shaped by a number of specific factors.Feed demand has two main drivers.First,the overall demand for animal products,which determines the production level of the livestock and aquaculture sectors.Second,the structure and efficiency of the production systems,which de

268、termine the amount of feed needed to produce a given output of livestock and aquaculture products.Industrial uses of agricultural commodities mostly for biofuel production and as input in the chemical industry are largely influenced by general economic conditions,regulatory policies,and technologica

269、l change.In the case of biofuels,consumption is highly sensitive to changes in policies,as well as overall demand for transport fuel,which in turn depends on the crude oil price.The macroeconomic assumptions underlying the projections suggest a widespread economic recovery following the COVID-19 pan

270、demic.However,the actual pace of this recovery will depend on several factors that cannot easily be anticipated,which introduces uncertainty into the projections of demand for agricultural commodities.The Outlook projections also account for reduced export availability from both Ukraine and Russia i

271、n the marketing year 2022/23(Section 1.3.7).33 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 1.5.Global use of major commodities Note:Crushing of oilseeds is not reported as the uses of vegetable oil and protein meal are included in the total;Dairy refers to all dairy products in milk

272、solid equivalent units;Sugar biofuel use refers to sugarcane and sugarbeet,converted into sugar equivalent units.Source:OECD/FAO(2022),“OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database),http:/dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/8hqoa0 1.2.1.Demand growt

273、h is slowing and mostly driven by population Global demand for agricultural commodities(including for non-food uses)is projected to grow at 1.1%p.a.over the coming decade,well below the growth experienced over the last decade(2%p.a.).This is mainly due to an expected slowdown in demand growth in Chi

274、na(0.6%pared to 2.3%p.a.over the last decade)and other middle-income countries,and in global demand for biofuels.For most commodities(except dairy),per capita demand growth will be limited over the next ten years(Figure 1.6).Population growth will thus be the main determinant of demand growth,with t

275、he bulk of additional demand originating in regions with high population growth,namely Sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia,Near East,and North Africa.For cereals and fish,global demand will grow at about half the rate of the past decade,while for vegetable oil only a third of last decades growth is expect

276、ed(Figure 1.6).Vegetable oil was the fastest-growing commodity over the last ten years,partly driven by biofuel policies.Over the next decade,demand growth for vegetable oil will be constrained by stagnant to declining biodiesel consumption in the two main markets,the United States and the European

277、Union(Section 1.3.5).Growth in food demand for vegetable oil is also projected to slow down as high-income countries and some middle-income countries,including China,are approaching saturation levels.02004006008001000120014-2120-2120-2120312019-2120

278、-2120-212031MaizeOther coarsegrainsRiceWheatOilseeds andproductsPulsesRoots andtubersMeatDairyFishSugarMtFoodFeedBiofuelOther uses34 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 1.6.Annual growth in demand for key commodity groups Note:The population

279、growth component is calculated assuming per capita demand remains constant at the level of the year preceding the decade.Growth rates refer to total demand(for food,feed and other uses).Source:OECD/FAO(2022),“OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database),http:/dx.doi.org/10.17

280、87/agr-outl-data-en.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/z59kfa 1.2.2.Low-and middle-income countries are driving food demand growth Global food demand is projected to increase by 1.4%p.a.over the next decade,driven by population and per capita income growth.Most additional demand for food will continue to c

281、ome from low and middle-income countries,while in high-income countries it will be constrained by slow population growth,and a saturation in the per capita consumption of several commodities(Section 1.3.3).World population is projected to grow from 7.8 billion in 2021 to 8.6 billion in 2031.Two-thir

282、ds of this increase is expected to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa,India and Near East and North Africa(Section 1.2.2).Consequently,these regions will generate a large share of additional demand for food,in particular cereals(two-thirds of additional demand),and other staples(i.e.roots and tubers,and pu

283、lses)(Figure 1.7).Continuing income growth and urbanisation in China,India,and Southeast Asia will also drive food demand growth for several commodities.China is expected to account for 41%and 34%of additional global food demand for fish and meat,respectively,while half of additional global demand f

284、or fresh dairy products will be sourced in India(Figure 1.7).-2-1012------31CerealsMeatFishDairySugar cropsVegetable oil%p.a.Due to per capita demand growth(food&other uses)Due to population growth 35 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL

285、 OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 1.7.Regional contributions to food demand growth,2012-21 and 2022-31 Note:Each column shows the increase in global demand over a ten-year period,split by region,for food uses only.NENA stands for Near East and North Africa,and is defined as in Chapter 2.Source:

286、OECD/FAO(2022),“OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database),http:/dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/xb9krf 1.2.3.Convergence in diets expected to be limited over the coming decade UN Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger by 2030 will be a

287、challenge Globally,average food availability per person is projected to grow by 4%to reach over 3 070 kcal/person/day in 2031.Staples and animal products will account for 70%of additional calories(Figure 1.8).Food availability is the closest indicator to food consumption available in the Aglink-Cosi

288、mo model.It is higher than actual consumption because some of the food that is potentially available to consumers is lost or wasted along the supply chain.The term food consumption is used for food availability for ease of interpretation.Global average food consumption per person masks important dif

289、ferences between regions and countries.While consumers in middle-income countries are expected to increase their food consumption and diversify their diets in the coming decade,diets in low-income countries will remain largely unchanged.Therefore,the projections suggest that it will be challenging t

290、o meet the Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)2 on Zero Hunger by 2030(United Nations,n.d.6).In Section 1.7,an illustrative scenario assesses the level of productivity growth that would be required to achieve SDG2 as well as a considerable reduction in agricultural greenhouse gases(GHG)emissions by 20

291、30.Per capita food consumption will level off in high-income countries over the next decade as it is already at high levels for the different food groups,and an ageing population and more sedentary lifestyles limit additional calorie requirements(Figure 1.8).However,income growth and changing consum

292、er preferences will increase the substitution away from staples and sweeteners,towards nutritious foods,including fruits and vegetables,and to a lesser extent,animal products.The projected decline in per capita consumption of sweeteners reflects growing consumer concerns about the negative health ef

293、fects of excessive sugar consumption.Several countries(e.g.France,United Kingdom,and Norway)have implemented measures 0204060801001201401------31CerealsMeatFishFresh dairySugarVegetable oilRest of WorldNENAChinaIndiaSub-Sa

294、haran AfricaOECDMt36 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 to discourage the consumption of caloric sweeteners over the last decade,which are assumed to remain in effect over the projection period and reduce demand for these products.In upper-middle income countries,per capita food co

295、nsumption is expected to increase by 4%by 2031(Figure 1.8).Given the expected high-income growth and the strong preference to consume more meat in several of these countries,including China,45%of additional calories will be provided by animal products and 20%by fats.Per capita food consumption is pr

296、ojected to increase by almost 7%in lower-middle income countries over the next decade,the largest gain of all income groups.Staples and animal products will account for two-thirds of this increase,and fats for 18%.The projected increase in fats consumption in middle-income countries is underpinned b

297、y ongoing urbanisation and changing lifestyles(e.g.increasing tendency to eat outside the home),which favour higher consumption of processed and convenience foods.Figure 1.8.Per capita calorie availability of the main food groups,by country income group Note:Estimates are based on historical time se

298、ries from the FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets database,which are extended with the Outlook database.Products not covered in the Outlook are extended by trends.The 38 individual countries and 11 regional aggregates in the baseline are classified into the four income groups according to their respective p

299、er-capita income in 2018.The applied thresholds are:low:USD 1 550,lower-middle:USD 3 895,upper-middle:USD 13 000.Staples includes cereals,roots and tubers and pulses.Animal products include meat,dairy products(excluding butter),eggs and fish.Fats include butter and vegetable oil.Sweeteners include s

300、ugar and HFCS.The category others include other crop and animal products.Source:FAO(2022).FAOSTAT Food Balances Database,http:/www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS;OECD/FAO(2021),“OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database),http:/dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en.StatLink 2 ht

301、tps:/stat.link/hk9jo8 In low-income countries,average food consumption is projected to increase by 5%to reach 2 560 kcal/person/day in 2031(Figure 1.8).Average diets in low income-countries will remain heavily based on staples,which are projected to account for more than half of additional calories

302、and will continue to provide 70%of calories by 2031.Strong growth in per capita consumption of sweeteners(11%of additional calories)is driven by ongoing urbanisation,which favours higher consumption of sugar-rich confectionery products and soft drinks.However,given the low base level,per capita cons

303、umption of sweeteners in these countries will remain well below those of middle and high-income countries by 2031.Growth in the consumption of animal products and other nutritious foods(e.g.fruits and vegetables)will be limited due to income constraints,exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.Given the

304、 higher cost of these food items,consumers in low-income countries will only slightly increase the diversity of their diets.050002500300035-2120-2120WorldHigh IncomeUpper Middle IncomeLower Middle IncomeLow Incomekcal/day/personStaplesAnimal

305、productsFatsSweetenersFruits&vegetablesOther 37 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Aligning global diets with the World Health Organization(WHO)guidelines on the intake of sugar and fat would improve food security and nutrition,and environmental sustainability,but could negatively

306、affect farmer livelihoods,as explained in Box 1.2.Box 1.2.Potential impact of dietary changes on the triple challenge facing food systems Global dietary patterns have changed substantially over the past 50 years,with people increasingly consuming resource-intensive and energy-dense foods.Changes in

307、dietary patterns have contributed to a double burden of malnutrition,with more than 1.9 billion people overweight in 2016 and,of these,over 650 million were obese(WHO,20217)and nearly 768 million people undernourished in 2020(FAO et al.,20218).Growing population and per capita food consumption have

308、also increased environmental resource pressure and degradation and led to a rise in GHG emissions from the agriculture,forestry and other land use sector.Current dietary and population growth trends will exacerbate risks to both people and the planet.A dietary shift toward healthy diets and more sus

309、tainable food systems could contribute to achieving many of the 17 UN SDGs by 2030,and countries commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement(COP21).Using the Aglink-Cosimo model and indicators of the triple challenge namely food security and nutrition,livelihoods,and environmental sustainability(Tall

310、ard et al.,20229)look at the potential impacts on food systems of aligning global diets with the WHO guidelines on the intake of sugar and fat.Specifically,this scenario assesses the impact of reducing the consumption of free sugars and fat to a maximum of 10%and 30%of an appropriate caloric intake,

311、respectively.1 These changes in diets are simulated to be implemented over ten years across all of the population in each country,excluding undernourished individuals.Following implementation of this dietary change,the model estimates that global per capita calories consumed from sugar fall by 8%,ca

312、lories from HFCS fall by 16%,and calories from fat fall by 11%in 2030,compared to the baseline of the 2020-29 Outlook(OECD/FAO,202110).Such a change in diets has a large impact on food security and nutritional outcomes,with the prevalence of obesity and overweight declining by 46%(638 million people

313、)and 28%(1 billion people),respectively,compared to the baseline.Moreover,as prices fall for most commodities,global food expenditure decreases by 35%,resulting in a 3%decline in the prevalence of undernourishment at the global level(20 million people)(Figure 1.9).This dietary change also has signif

314、icant impact on farmer livelihoods and environmental sustainability.Strong price declines for sugar(-28%),poultry(-44%),pork(-62%),beef(-63%),butter(-73%),and cheese(-53%),result in a 30%drop in agricultural revenues relative to the baseline.Lower production of several commodities,including emission

315、-intensive products such as meats and dairy,result in a 10%decline in GHG emissions from agriculture(-532 MtCO2-eq).The impact on global land use,however,is small (-0.5%)(Figure 1.9).The analysis indicates that it is the reduction in fat consumption that drives most of the impacts on the triple chal

316、lenge indicators,given the size of the vegetable oil and livestock sectors,the importance of these products in diets,and the substantial gap between current levels of fat consumption and the WHO recommendations(Tallard et al.,20229).38 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 Figure 1.9.

317、Global change in Indicators of the triple challenge:Sugar and fat scenario%change relative to the baseline Source:Tallard et al.(20229).St https:/stat.link/q6pets Overall,achieving WHOs targets on the intake of sugar and fat would have a positive impact on food security and nutrition,leading to a de

318、cline in both over-nourishment and undernourishment,as well as on environmental sustainability.However,the reduction in food prices and global production resulting from this change in diets negatively affects farmers livelihood.This suggests that when designing food policies,potential synergies and

319、trade-offs need to be taken into account in order to develop a coherent mix of policies that benefit agriculture,human health and the environment.Note:1 To translate WHO recommendations into specific values,this scenario rely on the Average Daily Energy Requirement,which captures the average calorie

320、 intake requirements of an average individual,taking into account a range of factors such as demographics and levels of physical activity.Source:Tallard et al.(20229).Continuing differences in the main sources of protein between countries Average per capita consumption of protein is projected to inc

321、rease by 4%to reach 87g/person/day in 2031.Income-related and cultural differences in the composition of protein consumption are expected to persist,with lower middle-and low-income countries remaining heavily dependent on proteins from plant sources.Populations in high-income countries will continu

322、e to derive the majority of their proteins from animal sources.In high-income countries,average per capita consumption of proteins is not expected to expand much over the next decade,due to near saturation in consumption,and heightened concerns about health and the environment(Figure 1.10).These con

323、cerns,together with ethical considerations regarding the welfare and eating of animals,could also boost demand for plant-based proteins and alternative protein sources(e.g.insects,cultured meat),as discussed in Section 1.3.7.Strong growth in per capita consumption of proteins is expected in upper an

324、d lower middle-income countries,by 6%and 8%,respectively;with about 60%of additional proteins being provided by animal-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50CaloriesFood expenditures UndernourishedObeseOverweightAg.RevenuesAg.Land Use Ag.DirectemissionFood security and nutritionLivelihoodsEnvironment%39 OECD

325、-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 products(Figure 1.10).This will bring average per capita consumption of proteins in upper-middle income countries close to the levels of high-income countries by 2031.Much of this convergence is driven by a strong growth in per capita consumption of a

326、nimal protein(mainly meat)in China.Despite significant growth in per capita consumption of animal protein(mainly dairy)in lower middle-income countries,their consumption levels will remain well below those of upper middle and high-income countries given their low base level.Indias traditionally low

327、consumption of animal protein,especially of meat,is the main contributor to this trend.Per capita consumption of proteins is projected to increase by 4%in low-income countries(Figure 1.10).Additional proteins will come almost entirely from plants,which will continue to provide more than 80%of availa

328、ble proteins by 2031.Per capita consumption of animal protein is low and is expected to grow slowly over the coming decade,mainly due to relatively low growth in per capita incomes following the COVID-19 pandemic.Supply chain problems(e.g.lack of a cold chain infrastructure)also remain a constraint

329、in some areas,whereas dietary preferences for non-animal protein sources continue to limit demand growth in others.Per capita consumption of fish protein is even projected to decline over the next decade,as population growth in Africa is projected to outpace the expansion in supply.Figure 1.10.Per c

330、apita protein availability,by country income group Note:Crops include cereals,pulses,and roots and tubers.Source:OECD/FAO(2022),“OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database),http:/dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/afdzv8 1.2.4.Feed use efficiency

331、 gains and intensification Low-and middle-income countries drive growth in feed use The evolution of global consumption patterns towards more animal products in diets requires growing crops and other agricultural products as feed.In 2019-21,about 1.7 billion tonnes of cereals,protein meals and proce

332、ssing by products(e.g.cereals bran)were used as animal feed.Global feed use is projected to increase by 1%p.a.over the coming decade,reaching 2 billion tonnes in 2031.4 00700204060801001-2120-212031High-Income countriesUpper middle-income countriesLower m

333、iddle-income countriesLow-Income countries%g/person/dayCropsMeatDairyEggFish%animal protein in total protein availability(right axis)40 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 20222031 OECD/FAO 2022 In lower middle and low-income countries,feed use is projected to grow faster,at about 2%p.a.over the next ten years,reflecting the rapid expansion in non-ruminant and aquaculture production,as well as intensifi