1、Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and OutreachPVPSTRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022REPORT IEA PVPS T1-43:2022PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMME WHAT IS IEA PVPS TCP?The International Energy Agency(IEA),founded in 1974,is an autonomous body within the framework of the Org

2、anization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD).TheTechnology Collaboration Programme(TCP)was created with a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts with global collaboration.The programme is made up of thousands of experts across government,academia,andindustry

3、dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies.The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme(IEA PVPS)is one of the TCPs within the IEA and was established in 1993.The mission of the programme is to“enhance the international collaborative efforts which faci

4、litate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.”In order to achieve this,the Programmes participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications.The overall programme is headed by an Executive Co

5、mmittee,comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member,which designates distinct Tasks,that may be research projects or activity areas.This report has been prepared under Task 1,which deals with market and industry analysis,strategic research and facilitates the exchange and diss

6、emination of information arising from the overall IEA PVPSProgramme.The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia,Austria,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Israel,Italy,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,the Netherlands,Norway,Portugal,South Africa,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thai

7、land,Turkey,and the United States of America.The European Commission,Solar Power Europe,the Smart Electric Power Alliance(SEPA),the Solar Energy Industries Association and the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore are also members.Visit us at:www.iea-pvps.orgAUTHORSMain Authors:Gatan Masson(B

8、ecquerel Institute),Izumi Kaizuka(RTS Corporation).Analysis:Izumi Kaizuka(RTS Corporation),Elina Bosch,Gatan.Masson(Becquerel Institute),Caroline Plaza(BecquerelInstitute France),Alessandra Scognamiglio(ENEA),Arnulf Jger-Waldau(EU-JRC),Johan Lindahl(Becquerel Institute Sweden),EddyBlokken(SERIS).Dat

9、a:IEA PVPS Reporting Countries,Becquerel Institute(BE),RTS Corporation(JP)and Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau(EU-JRC),Forthe non-IEA PVPS countries UNEF(ES).For the other European Union countries:EU-JRC.For floating PV data:SERIS(SG).For the non-IEA PVPS countries:BSW,UNEF.Editor:Gatan Masson,IEA PVPS Task 1 M

10、anager.Design:Boheem DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency(IEA)but is functionally and legally autonomous.Views,findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its indi

11、vidual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts in the relevant countries.Data are valid at the date of publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries due to the publication date.ISBN ISBN 978-3-907281-35-2:Trends in Photov

12、oltaic Applications 2022.1IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022REPORT SCOPE AND OBJECTIVESThe Trends reports objective is to present and interpret developments in the PV power systems market and the evolving applications for these products within this market.These trends are analysed in

13、the context of the business,policy and nontechnical environment in the reporting countries.This report is prepared to assist those who are responsible for developing the strategies of businesses and public authorities,and to support the development of medium-term plans for electricity utilities and

14、other providers of energy services.It also provides guidance to government officials responsible for setting energy policy and preparing national energy plans.The scope of the report is limited to PV applications with a rated power of 40 W or more.National data supplied are as accurate as possible a

15、t the time of publication.Data accuracy on production levels andsystem prices varies,depending on the willingness of the relevant national PVindustry to provide data.This report presents the results of the 25th international survey.It provides an overview of PV power systems applications,markets and

16、 production in the reporting countries and elsewhere at the end of 2021 and analyses trends in the implementation of PV power systems between 1992 and 2021.Key data for this publication were drawn mostly from national survey reports and information summaries,which were supplied by representatives fr

17、om each of the reporting countries.Information from the countries outside IEA PVPS are drawn from avariety of sources and,while every attempt is made to ensure their accuracy,the validity of some of these data cannot be assured with the same level of confidence as for IEA PVPS member countries.ACKNO

18、WLEDGMENTThis report has been prepared under the supervision by Task 1 participants.A special thanks to all of them.The report authors also gratefully acknowledge special support of Eddy Blokken fromSERIS.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 20222FOREWORDThe annual PV market reached 175 GW w

19、orldwide in 2021.While the world was facing the second year of a pandemic and despite the end-of-year disruptions in Asia,the photovoltaic market continued growing.Without these drawbacks,it probably could have reached 200 GW.This is an exceptional result:945,7 GW of PV power plants were producing e

20、lectricity worldwide at the end of the year,of which around 70%have been installed during the last five years.Over the years,an increasing number of markets have started contributing to global PV installations,and 2021 closed with a record number of new countries installing significant numbers of PV

21、.The upward trend in module prices observed at the global level at the end of 2021,related to stress on several raw materials markets,has not affected the competitiveness and development of the market.PVs role in the global transition to low-carbon energy is confirmed.1200 TWh are produced annually

22、by PV plants,the equivalent of the combined annual consumption of Germany,France,Spain,and Belgium.The PV capacity globally avoided no less than one billion tons of CO2,equating roughly to 3%of annual global emissions,which reached 33 Gt in 2021.PV is thus already a key decarbonization power source.

23、The rapid decline in PV prices over the past years,despite the conjectural recent price increase,has enabled PV systems to achieve competitive prices in several countries.The possibility of developing photovoltaic systems with limited or no financial incentives is now an observable reality.Long-term

24、 private contracts(PPA)and the sale of electricity on wholesale markets have been observed in an increasing number of countries in 2021.This growing competitiveness has also boosted the share of PV installations operating under self-consumption without any financial support mechanism.If electricity

25、prices should remain at the high level experienced in 2022 in several places around the world in 2022,especially in Europe,the question of competitiveness would change completely:without any support scheme limitations,thepotential of the PV market seems virtually unlimited.With this broader integrat

26、ion,the question of access,management,and financing of the grid will become a key challenge.The electrification of the transport sector,as well as storage capacities and the production of green hydrogen,will increase the demand for low-carbon electricity.The competitiveness also paves the way for fu

27、rther integration in buildings,vehicles,infrastructure,and cross-cutting applications with nearly every energy-consuming sector.One of the most promising hybrid segments is called AgriPV,which combines agriculture with energy production.While still a niche market at this point,AgriPV shows significa

28、nt developmentpotential.The social acceptance of the energy transition is a major issue and is becoming a key subject for the development of PV.It is multifaceted:economic,social,societal,and environmental,but also aesthetic.PV is a major contributor on the road to sustainability:the nature of the e

29、nergy transformation,and the acceptance of change are essential elements in the success of this revolution:dealing with the number of jobs concerned,the impact on the environment and the social aspects linked to the development of PV has become unavoidable.Ensuring a local development of the PV indu

30、stry and improving the use of resources is part of the response to the need for PV to be more virtuous than the energy sources that it replaces.In 2022,photovoltaic technology has become increasingly asource of affordable,local,and low-carbon energy.In the context of geopolitical tensions and resour

31、ce scarcity,PV could become a stabilization element,promoting peace through reduced tensions in energy markets while accelerating the development of the world.Gatan Masson Manager Task 1 IEA PVPS ProgrammeDaniel Mugnier Chair IEA PVPS Programme3IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022TABLE

32、OF CONTENTSFOREWORD 2INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY 5PV TECHNOLOGY 5PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKETSEGMENTS 6METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENTINDICATORS 8PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 9THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 9PV MARKET SEGMENTS 16EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTS 19OFF-GRID

33、MARKET DEVELOPMENT 22PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION 22POLICY FRAMEWORK 31PV MARKET DRIVERS AND SUPPORT SCHEMES 33PROSUMERS AND ENERGY COMMUNITIES POLICIES 38ENERGY TRANSITION POLITICS 40INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURINGPOLICIES 42TRENDS IN PV INDUSTRY 43THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR 43THE DOWNSTREAM PV SECTOR 53SOCI

34、ETAL IMPLICATIONS OF PV ANDACCEPTANCE 55ACCEPTANCE OF PV DEPLOYMENT 55CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 57VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY 58AESTHETICS AND LANDSCAPE 64COMPETITIVENESS OF PV ELECTRICITY IN 2021 65MODULE PRICES 65SYSTEM PRICES 68COST OF PV ELECTRICITY 70PV IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 75PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIO

35、N 75PV INTEGRATION AND SECTORCOUPLING 79ANNEXES 81LIST OF FIGURES 84LIST OF TABLES 854TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS/2022PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME WWW.IEA-PVPS.ORGTOTAL BUSINESS VALUE IN PV SECTOR IN 2021$190 BILLION USDTOP 5CHINAEUUSAINDIAJAPAN54.9 GW28.7 GW26.9 GW13.4 GW6.6 GWPV CO

36、NTRIBUTION TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND5%Share of PV in the global electricity demand in 2021CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS1060million tons of CO2 savedin 2021GLOBAL PV CAPACITY END OF 2021PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 20211011 0 or NAPV penetration(Wp/capita)506YEARLY PV INSTALLATION,MODULE PV PRODUCTION AND MODUL

37、E PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2011-2021(GW)0050060020200122011GWTotal module production capacityTotal module PV productionYearly PV installationsPV MARKETS IN 202142 COUNTRIES REACHED AT LEAST1 GWpIN 202118 COUNTRIES INSTALLED AT LEAST1 GWpIN 2021SOURCE IEA PVPS&O

38、THERSPV POWER PER CAPITA1.AUSTRALIA(1 011 Wp/cap)2.THE NETHERLANDS(818 Wp/cap)3.GERMANY(718 Wp/cap)4.JAPAN(622 Wp/cap)5.BELGIUM(620 Wp/cap)174GW772GW946GW2021GLOBAL PV CAPACITY END OF 2020(GW)ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2021(GW)5oneINTRODUCTION TO THECONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGYPV TECHNOLOGYPhotovoltai

39、c(PV)devices convert light directly into electricity and should not be confused with other solar technologies such as concentrated solar power(CSP)or solar thermal for heating and cooling.The key components of a PV power system are various types of photovoltaic cells(often called solar cells)interco

40、nnected and encapsulated to form a photovoltaic module(the commercial product),the mounting structure for the module or array,the inverter(essential for grid-connected systems and required for most off-grid systems),the storage battery and charge controller(for off-grid systems but also increasingly

41、 for grid-connected ones).CELLS,MODULES AND SYSTEMS Photovoltaic cells represent the smallest unit in a photovoltaic power producing device.Wafer sizes,and thus cell sizes have progressively increased,as it is commonly considered by industrial actors as an easy way to improve cell and modules wattag

42、e.Nowadays,wafer sizes range from 156,75 x 156,75 square mm(named M2)up to 210 x 210 square mm(named M12).Tothis date,there is no standard in the wafer size.Nevertheless,M10wafers(182 x 182 square mm)and M12 have gained a lot of traction in the last year.In general,cells can be classified as either

43、wafer-based crystalline silicon c-Si(mono-and multi-crystalline),compoundsemiconductor(thin-film),or organic.Currently,c-Si technologies account for more than 95%of the overall cell production.Monocrystalline PV cells,formed with wafers manufactured using a single crystal growth method,feature comme

44、rcial efficiencies between 20%and 25%(singlejunction).They have gained the biggest market share in recent years,over 85%of the c-Si share.Multicrystalline silicon(mc-Si)cells,also called polycrystalline,are formed with multicrystalline wafers,manufactured from a cast solidification process.They are

45、still in production due to their lower production prices.Nevertheless,theyare less efficient,with an average conversion efficiency of around 18%-21%in mass production(single-junction).Thin-film cells are formed by depositing extremely thin layers of photovoltaic semiconductor materials onto a backin

46、g material such as glass,stainless steel or plastic.III-V compound semiconductor PV cells are formed using materials such as Gallium Arsenide(GaAs)on Germanium(Ge)substrates and have high conversion efficiencies from 25%up to 30%(not concentrated).Due to their high cost,they are typically used in co

47、ncentrated PV(CPV)systems with tracking systems or for space applications.Thin-film modules used to have lower conversion efficiencies than basic crystalline silicon technologies,but this has changed in recent years.Theyare potentially less expensive to manufacture than crystalline cells thanks to t

48、he reduced number of manufacturing steps from raw materials to modules,and to reduced energy demand.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 20226Thin-film materials commercially used are cadmium telluride(CdTe),and copperindium-(gallium)-diselenide(CIGS and CIS).Amorphous(a-Si)and micromorph si

49、licon(-Si)used to have a significant market share but failed to follow both the price of crystalline silicon cells and the efficiency increase of other thin filmtechnologies.Organic thin-film PV(OPV)cells use dye or organic semiconductors as the light-harvesting active layer.This technology has crea

50、ted increasing interest and research over the last few years and is currently the fastest-advancing solar technology.Despite the low production costs,stable products are not yet available for the market,nevertheless development and demonstration activities are underway.Tandem cells based on perovski

51、tes are researched as well,with either a crystalline silicon base or a thin film base and could hit the market sooner than pure perovskites products.In 2021,perovskite solar cell achieved 28,0%efficiencies in silicon-based tandem and 23,26%efficiencies in CIGS-based tandems.Photovoltaic modules are

52、typically rated from 290 W to 600 W,depending on the technology and the size.Specialized products for building integrated PV systems(BIPV)exist,sometimes with higher nominal power due to their larger sizes.Crystalline silicon modules consist of individual PV cells connected and encapsulated between

53、a transparent front,usually glass,and a backing material,usually plastic or glass.Thin-film modules encapsulate PV cells formed into a single substrate,in a flexible or fixed module,with transparent plastic or glass as the front material.Theirefficiency ranges between 9%(OPV),10%(a-Si),17%(CIGS and

54、CIS),19%(CdTe),25%GaAs(non-concentrated)and above 40%forsome CPVmodules.A PV system consists of one or several PV modules,connected to either an electricity network(grid-connected PV)or to a series of loads(off-grid).It comprises various electric devices aimed at adapting the electricity output of t

55、he module(s)to the standards ofthe network or the load:inverters,charge controllers or batteries.A wide range of mounting structures has been developed especially for BIPV;including PV facades,sloped and flat roof mountings,integrated(opaque or semi-transparent)glass-glass modules andPV tiles.Single

56、 or two-axis tracking systems have recently become more and more attractive for ground-mounted systems,particularly for PV utilization in countries with a high share of direct irradiation.Byusing such systems,the energy yield can typically be increased by 10-20%for single axis trackers and 20-30%for

57、 double axis trackers compared with fixed systems.PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKETSEGMENTSWhen considering distributed PV systems,it is necessary to distinguish BAPV(building applied photovoltaics)and BIPV(buildings integrated photovoltaics)systems.BAPV refers to PV systems installed on an existing buildi

58、ng while BIPV imposes to replace conventional building materials by some which include PV cells.Amongst BIPV solutions,PV tiles,or PV shingles,are typically small,rectangular solar panels that can be installed alongside conventional tiles or slates using a traditional racking system used for this ty

59、pe of building product.BIPV products can take various shapes,colours and be manufactured using various materials,although a vast majority use glass on both sides.Theycan be assembled in a way that they fill multiple functions usually devoted to conventional building envelope solutions.Bifacial PV mo

60、dules collect light on both sides of the panel.Depending on the reflection of the ground underneath the modules(albedo),the energy production increase is estimated to a maximum of 15%with a fixed structure,and possibly up to 30-35%with a single-axis system.Bifacial modules have a growing competitive

61、 advantage despite higher overall installation costs.Indeed,recent competitive projects in desert areas boosted the market confidence in bifacial PV performance and production lines are increasingly moving towards bifacial modules.The additional factors affecting bifacial performance into their mode

62、ls are also better understood and integrated in the downstream industry.Bifacial PV panels have gained traction again in 2021 and are expected to take growing market shares in the coming years for utility-scale applications.PV TECHNOLOGY/CONTINUED7IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022Flo

63、ating PV systems are mounted on a structure that floats on awater surface and can be associated with existing grid connections for instance in the case of dam vicinity.The development of floating PV on man-made water areas is a solution to land scarcity in high population density areas and can be co

64、mbined with hydropower.Agricultural PV combine crops and energy production on the same site.The sharing of light between these two types of production potentially allows a higher crop yield,depending on the climate and the selection of the crop variety and can even be mutually beneficial in some cas

65、es,as the water which evaporates from the crops can contribute to a reduction of PV modules operatingtemperature.PV thermal hybrid solar installations(PVT)combine a solar module with a solar thermal collector,thereby converting sunlight into electricity and capturing the remaining waste heat from th

66、e PV module to produce hot water or feed the central heating system.It also allows to reduce the operating temperature of the modules,which benefits the global performances of the system.VIPV or vehicle integrated PV.The integration of solar cells into the shell of the vehicles allow for emissions r

67、eductions in the mobility sector.The solar cell technological developments allow to meet both aesthetic expectations for car design and technical requirements such as lightweight and resistance to load.VAPV relates to the use of PV modules on vehicles without integration.Various Solar Home Sytems(SH

68、S)or pico PV systems have experienced significant development in the last few years,combining the use of efficient lights(mostly LEDs)with charge controllers and batteries.With a small PV panel of only a few watts,essential services can be provided,such as lighting,phone charging and powering a radi

69、o or a small computer.Expandable versions of solar pico PV systems have entered the market and enable starting with a small kit and adding extra loads later.They are mainly used for off-grid basic electrification,mainly in developing countries.GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMSIn grid-connected PV systems,an

70、 inverter is used to convert electricity from direct current(DC)as produced by the PV array to alternating current(AC)that is then supplied to the electricity network.The typical weighted conversion efficiency is in the range of 95%to 99%.Most inverters incorporate a Maximum Power Point Tracker(MPPT

71、),which continuously adjusts the load impedance to provide the maximum power from the PV array.One inverter can be used for the whole array or separate inverters may be used for each string of modules.PV modules with integrated inverters,usually referred to as“AC modules”,can be directly connected t

72、o the electricity network(where approved by network operators),they offer better partial shading management and installation flexibility.Similarly,micro-inverters,connected to up to four panels also exist,despite their higher initial cost,they present some advantages where array sizes are small and

73、maximal performance is to be achieved.Grid-connected distributed PV systems are installed to provide power to a grid-connected customer or directly to the electricity network,more specifically the distribution network.Such systems may be on,or integrated into,the customers premises often on the dema

74、nd side of the electricity meter,on residential,commercial or industrial buildings,or simply in the built environment on motorway sound-barriers,etc.Size is not a determining feature while a 1MW PV system on a rooftop may be large by PV standards,this is not the case for other forms of distributed g

75、eneration.Grid-connected centralized PV systems perform the functions of centralized power stations.The power supplied by such a system is physically not associated with an electricity customer,and the system is not located to specifically perform functions on the electricity network other than the

76、supply of bulk power.These systems are typically ground-mounted and functioning independently of any nearby development.Hybrid systems combine the advantages of PV and diesel generator in mini grids.They allow mitigating fuel price increases,deliver operating cost reductions,and offer higher service

77、 quality than traditional single-source generation systems.The combining of technologies provides new possibilities to provide a reliable and cost-effective power source in remote places such as for telecom base stations.Large-scale hybrids can be used for large cities powered today by diesel genera

78、tors and have been seen,for instance in central Africa,often in combination with batterystorage.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 20228OFF-GRID PV SYSTEMSFor off-grid systems,a storage battery is required to provide energy during low-light periods.Nearly all batteries used for PV systems

79、are of the deep discharge lead-acid type.Other types of batteries(e.g.NiCad,NiMH,Li-Ion)are also suitable and have the advantage that they cannot be overcharged or deep-discharged.The lifetime of a battery varies,depending on the operating regime and conditions,but is typically between 5 and 10 year

80、s even ifprogresses are seen in that field.A charge controller(or regulator)is used to maintain the battery at the highest possible state of charge(SOC)and provide the user with the required quantity of electricity while protecting the battery from deep discharge or overcharging.Some charge controll

81、ers also have integrated MPP trackers to maximize the PV electricity generated.If there is a requirement for AC electricity,a“stand-alone inverter”can supply conventional AC appliances.Off-grid domestic systems provide electricity to households and villages that are not connected to the utility elec

82、tricity network.They provide electricity for lighting,refrigeration and other low power loads,have been installed worldwide and are increasingly the most competitive technology to meet the energy demands ofoff-grid communities.Off-grid non-domestic installations were the first commercial application

83、 for terrestrial PV systems.They provide power for a wide range of applications,such as telecommunications,water pumping,vaccine refrigeration and navigational aids.These are applications where small amounts of electricity have a high value,thus making PV commercially cost competitive with other sma

84、ll generating sources.METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSThis report counts all PV installations,both grid-connected and reported off-grid installations.By convention,the numbers reported refer to the nominal power of PV systems installed.These are expressed in W(or Wp).Some co

85、untries are reporting the power output of the PV inverter(device converting DC power from the PV system into AC electricity compatible with standard electricity networks).The difference between the standard DC Power(in Wp)and the AC power can range from as little as 5%(conversion losses)to as much a

86、s 40%(for instance some grid regulations limit output to as little as 65%of the peak power from the PV system,but also higher DC/AC ratios reflect the evolution of utility-scale PV systems).Conversion of AC data has been made when necessary,to calculate the most precise installation numbers every ye

87、ar.Global data should be considered as indications rather than exact statistics.Data from countries outside of the IEA PVPS network have been obtained through different sources,some of them based on trade statistics.As an increasing share of the global installed PV capacity is attaining a certain li

88、fetime-the very first waves of installations dating back to the nineties-performance losses and decommissioning must be considered to calculate the PV capacity and PV production.For this report,the PV penetration was estimated with the most recent global data about the PV installed capacity,the aver

89、age theoretical PV production and the electricity demand based.Ingeneral,PV penetration is amongst one of the best indicators to reflect the market dynamics in a specific country or region.If a global PV penetration level does not reflect the regional disparities,it gives an indication about the abi

90、lity of the technology to keep up with the global demand growth.Hence,regarding climate goals for instance,the PV penetration is a better indicator than the absolute market growth.PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKETSEGMENTS/CONTINUEDERR 能研微讯 微信公众号：Energy-report 欢迎申请加入 ERR 能研微讯开发的能源研究微信群，请提供单位姓名（或学校姓名），申请添加智库

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92、 资报告号：ERR 能研微讯 订阅号二维码（左）丨行业咨询、情报、专家合作：ERR 能研君（右)视频、图表号、研究成果：能研智库 订阅号二维码（左）丨 ERR 能研微讯头条号、西瓜视频（右)能研智库视频号（左）丨能研智库抖音号（右)9IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022twoPV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSSince the early beginnings of the PV market development,over 945,4 GW of PV plants have been installed

93、globally,of which around 70%has been installed in the past five years.Over the years,a growing number of markets have started to contribute to global PV installations,and the year 2021 closed with a record number of new countries installing significant PV numbers.A large majority of PV installations

94、 are grid-connected and include an inverter which converts the variable direct current(DC)output of solar modules into alternating current(AC)to be injected into the electrical grid.PV installation data is reported in DC by default in this report(see also Chapter 1).When countries are reporting offi

95、cially in AC,this report converts in DC to maintain coherency.Whenofficial reporting is in AC,announced capacities are mentioned as MWac or MWdc in this report.By default,MWimplies capacities mentioned in DC.For more information on registering PV installations,download the IEA PVPS report on registe

96、ring PV installations published recently.Global PV installed capacity(GW)+22%YoY growthDownload the“dataModel for PV System”reports:THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITYAt the end of 2021,the global PV installed capacity represented 945,4 GW of cumulative PV installations.Presently it appears that 173,5

97、GW represented the minimum capacity installed during 2021 with a reasonably firm level of certainty.This level is the highest ever recorded for PV installations,despite the pandemic related perturbations which have delayed market development in several countries.The real impact of the pandemic is di

98、fficult to estimate,since the delays observed in the first part of the year were sometimes compensated in the second part.However,it seems reasonable that many projects might have been delayed.In addition,prices increased and logistic issues possibly reduced the installations in the last part of the

99、 year 2021.Hence the market results could have probably been even higher,reflecting the sector mood.The group of IEA PVPS countries represented 753 GW of the global installed capacity.The IEA PVPS participating countries in 2021 are Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France

100、,Germany,Israel,Italy,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Photo by Denis Schroeder,NREL 55200IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202210Mexico,Morocco,the Netherlands,Norway,Portugal,South Africa,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Turkey,andthe United States of America.The other key markets that have been c

101、onsidered and which are not part of the IEA PVPS Programme,represented a total cumulative capacity of 154,3 GW at the end of 2021.Amongst them,India covered around one third of that capacity with 61GW.Vietnam reached 18,4 GW after three years of important PV development(in particular over 11 GW inst

102、alled in 2020).The remaining part of PV capacities is mainly located in Europe,and partly related to historical installations as well as to the contribution of emerging markets:UK with 14,6 GW,Polandwith7,7 GW,Ukrainewithover6 GW,Greece with 5 GW,the Czech Republic with 2,0 GW installed,Romania with

103、 1,6 GW,and Bulgaria almost 1,3 GW.The other major countries that accounted for the highest cumulative installations at the end of 2021 and that are not part of the IEA PVPS programme are:Brazil with 13,7 GW,and Taiwan with 7,7GW.Numerous countries all over the world have started to deploy PV,but fe

104、w have yet reached a significant development level in terms of cumulative installed capacity outside the ones mentioned above.New developments occurred in Africa(Egypt,South Africa)and in the Middle East(UAE)which led to GW-scale installation levels:4,6 GW in South Africa,3,5 GW in the UAE and3,4 in

105、 Egypt forinstance.FIGURE 2.1:EVOLUTION OF CUMULATIVE PV INSTALLATIONSGWIEA PVPS countriesOther countries00500600700800900020001,0100,8138,6178,7228,2306,0408,9513,5626,4771,8945,4SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSPV PENETRATION PER CAPITAIn just a few year

106、s,Australia has reached the highest installedPV capacity per inhabitant with 1 011 W/cap in IEA-PVPS andsurveyed countries.The Netherlands is second with 818 W/cap.Germany comes next with 718 W/cap followed by Japan with 622W/cap and Belgium with 620 W/cap.Switzerland and Korea nearly tied at the 6t

107、h place with respectively 422 W/cap and 416W/cap.Denmark(399 W/cap)and Spain(396 W/cap)come next.Italy and the USA are closing the top 10(among IEA PVPS countries)with 374 and 371W/cap.As a comparison,500 W represents the power of a large PV module,one can say that in some countries one module per p

108、erson have been installed.Australia has reached the highest installed PV capacity per inhabitant with 1 011 W/cap.THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY/CONTINUED11IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022EVOLUTION OF PV ANNUALINSTALLATIONSFIGURE 2.2:PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 20211011 0 or NAPV

109、 penetration(Wp/capita)506SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSFIGURE 2.3:EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONSGW020406080002020001,529,837,840,150,576,8102,9104,6112,9145,5173,5JapanUSAOther countriesOther IEA PVPS countriesChinaIndiaEuropean UnionSOURCE IEA P

110、VPS&OTHERSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202212The IEA PVPS countries installed at least 129 GW in 2021.Whilethey are more difficult to track with a high level of certainty,installations in non-IEA PVPS countries contributed an estimated amount of 44 GW.The noteworthy trend of 2021 is

111、the important year on year growth for the second year in a row,of the global PV market despite the supply chain turmoil which could have paused or delayed market development in some countries.As in 2020,the rise of emerging markets in addition to the growth of key markets contributed to this market

112、growth in 2021.For the ninth year in a row,China was in the first place and installed almost 55 GW in 2021,according to Chinas National Energy Administration;an installation level that surpassed the level reached in the country in 2017(52,8 GW).The total installed capacity in China reached 308,5 GW,

113、and by that the country kept its market leader position in terms of total installed capacity.The Chinese market represented 31%of the global installation in 2021.Annual PV installations(GW)+19%YoY growthSecond was the European Union,which experienced growth for the third year in a row with 28,7 GW,w

114、hich exceeds the 23,2GW recorded in 2011.Germany(5,8 GW)and Spain(4,9GW)were the key markets this year followed by Poland(3,7 GW),theNetherlands(3,6 GW)and France(3,4 GW)and several others.Third was the United States with 26,9 GW installed,marking a significant growth again compared to the previous

115、year making 2021 the largest single year increase in installations in the U.S.Both the utility sector installations and the residential market increased over 2020 installation levels.At the end of 2021,the U.S.reached 123 GW of cumulative installed capacity.India was in fourth place with 13,7 GW ins

116、talled,bringing back the annual market to levels close to those observed in 2017,2018 and 2019.The official number has been recalculated based on official AC data using IEA PVPS assumptions on AC-DC ratio.The market in Japan contracted slightly with 6,6 GW in 2021,itslowest level since 2012.FIGURE 2

117、.4:EVOLUTION OF MARKET SHARE OF TOP COUNTRIES02040608020001320122011s tekraM VP l abo lG 01 poTtekraM VP l abo lG t s1s tekraM VP l abo lG 5 poT%19%28%28%27%30%45%52%42%27%33%48%69%71%77%78%83%85%72%58%64%57%86%85%88%88%90%91%85%76%78%32%62%76%SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERST

118、HE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY/CONTINUED13IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022Together,these five leading individual or block of countries represented around 75%of all installations recorded in 2021,thesame level as in 2020.In terms of cumulative installed capacity,these countries repr

119、esent 76%of the global capacity.This shows that the global PV market concentration is again increasing,with new markets contributing proportionally less to global installation numbers than established ones.Behind the top 5,Brazil installed 5,7 GW leading to a cumulative market of 13,7 GW in 2021.Aft

120、er years of limited PV market development,Brazil appears now as one of the key global players,demonstrating its much higher potential than the levels reached until now.Australia installed 4,9 GW in 2021,a stable level since 2018 and atremendous level given the countrys population.For several years t

121、he country has been experiencing a boom in utility-scale applications together with a robust demand for distributed PV systems.Thetotal installed PV capacity reached 26 GW at the end of 2021.Korea installed 4,2 GW in 2021 with an important share of utility-scale plants,a slight decrease compared to

122、2020 when the highest level of installations ever in the country was recorded.Korea is one key industrial actor in the PV sector,with several key players such as Hanwha and OCI.Chiles position in the top 10 countries for PV installations comes from 2,7 GW installed in 2021,marking a tremendous boom

123、in PV market development in the country.In the tenth position comes Vietnam where PV installations significantly decreased after the massive growth observed in 2020.In total around 2 GW were installed.Together,these 10 markets cover around 76%of the 2021 annual world market,a sign that the growth of

124、 the global PV market has been driven by a limited number of countries again,and this even if the remaining markets are starting to contribute more significantly.Market concentration has been fuelling fears for the markets stability in the past,if one of the top three or top five markets would exper

125、ience a slowdown.As shown in Figure 2.4,the market concentration steadily decreased in 2019 before growing again in 2020 and stabilising in 2021,mostly due to the growth of the Chinese PV market.As new markets are starting to emerge,the versatility of the global PV market minus China reduces,and the

126、refore the risks.However,the size of the Chinese PV market continues to shape the evolution of the PV market as a whole.As we have seen in 2019,the global growth was limited due to the decline of the first market,which almost wiped out the global growth,while in 2021,Chinas installations maximized t

127、he global growth.The level of installations required to be included in the top 10(country wise)has increased steadily since 2014:from 0,78 GW to 1,6 GW in 2018,and around 3,5 GW in 2020 and 2021.Thisreflects the global growth trend of the solar PV market,butalso itsvariations from one year to anothe

128、r.Considering the European Union(a member of theIEA PVPS)as one entity rather than a collection of markets is an editorial choice of the writers.Considering the European PV Markets separately,Germany would rank fifth,Spain eighth and Poland tenth.This doesnt change the general conclusions of this ch

129、apter;the ten first countries would cover 76%of the global PV market.TABLE 2.1:EVOLUTION OF TOP 10 MARKETSRANKING200002020211ITALYGERMANYCHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINA2GERMANYITALYJAPANJAPANJAPANUSAINDIAINDIAUSAUSAUSA3CHINACHINAUSAUSAUSAJAPANUSAUSAINDI

130、AVIETNAMINDIA4USAUSAGERMANYUKUKINDIAJAPANJAPANJAPANJAPANJAPAN5FRANCEJAPANITALYGERMANYINDIAUKTURKEYAUSTRALIAVIETNAMGERMANYGERMANY6JAPANFRANCEUKSOUTH AFRICA GERMANYGERMANYGERMANYTURKEYAUSTRALIAAUSTRALIABRAZIL7BELGIUMAUSTRALIAROMANIAFRANCEKOREATHAILANDKOREAGERMANYSPAINKOREAAUSTRALIA8UKINDIAINDIAKOREAAU

131、STRALIAKOREAAUSTRALIAMEXICOGERMANYINDIASPAIN9AUSTRALIAGREECEGREECEAUSTRALIAFRANCEAUSTRALIABRAZILKOREAUKRAINESPAINKOREA10GREECEBULGARIAAUSTRALIAINDIACANADATURKEYUKNETHERLANDSKOREANETHERLANDSPOLANDRANKING EUMARKET LEVEL TO ACCESS THE TOP 10426 MW843 MW792 MW779 MW675 MW818 MW944 MW1 621 MW3

132、 130 MW3 492 MW3 710 MWIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202214Other countries that installed several GW in the last years or were found in the top 10 countries,didnt succeed in maintaining a sufficiently high level of installations to stay in the rankings:Mexico,Turkey,France and many ot

133、her countries.The versatility of the markets is a feature of the PV industry that,from its inception,had to deal with changes in policies and therefore in market development.This is levelizing progressively with PV reaching competitiveness faster than many expected.After having reached GW-scale inst

134、allations in 2019 and 2020,PV deployment declined in Egypt in 2021,with 300 MW installed.In the UAE,almost 700 MW came online in 2021 through large-scale tenders,amongst the most competitive globally.Self-consumption policies didnt contribute much but could represent a complementary driver in the ne

135、ar future.Mexicos annual installations maintained their 2020 level with 1,6 GW in 2021,in a complex policy environment,which might put the brakes on its market in the coming years.As detailed above,the IEA PVPS choice consists in reporting DC capacities.An estimate of AC capacities would put the new

136、 installed capacities number around 129 GW in 2021.This number(in the same way as the DC number)is an approximation of the reality and represents an estimated value of the maximum power that all PV systems globally could generate instantaneously,assuming they would all produce at the same time.This

137、number is indicative and should in no case be used for energy production calculation.FIGURE 2.5:GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2021 CHINA,31,64%OTHER COUNTRIES,24,37%USA,15,49%JAPAN,3,77%GERMANY,3,32%AUSTRALIA,2,85%SOUTH KOREA,2,44%INDIA,7,87%SPAIN,2,82%BRAZIL,3,29%POLAND,2,14%SOURCE IEA PVPS,RTS CORPORATIONFI

138、GURE 2.6:CUMULATIVE PV CAPACITY END 2021 SOURCE IEA PVPS,RTS CORPORATION CHINA,32,62%OTHER COUNTRIES,21,99%USA,13,01%JAPAN,8,29%GERMANY,6,31%AUSTRALIA,2,75%SOUTH KOREA,2,28%INDIA,6,45%SPAIN,1,96%VIETNAM,1,95%ITALY,2,39%Other countries reached significant installation levels in 2021:Around 3,7 GW of

139、PV installations were added in Poland in 2021,mostly as small distributed installations.3,6 GW were installed in the Netherlands,3,4 GW in France marking a significant growth compared to previous year and also 1,9 GW in Taiwan,1,5 GW inTurkey and 1,2 GW in Greece.Other countries that installed signi

140、ficant amounts of PV but below the GW mark,were Israel(940 MW),Italy(944 MW),Belgium(850 MW),Hungary(800 MW),Austria(740 MW),the UK(730MW)and Denmark(720 MW).The market uptake in the European Union makes it the second largest market globally.The total installed capacity in most surveyed countries ta

141、kes decommissioning of PV plants into account.While such numbers remain relatively limited for the time being,they start to impact numbers at a very low level,which can lead to discrepancies in national statistics of several IEA PVPS countries.Off-grid numbers are difficult to track and most numbers

142、 are estimates.Changes(including repowering)and decommissioning are higher for these applications than in other segments and can lead to numerical glitches.In this report,global annual installations and the cumulative capacity are computed based on a variety of sources and could,despites all efforts

143、,differ from other publications.The development in many non-IEA countries is an estimate,duetothe lack of official statistics in numerous countries.THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY/CONTINUED15IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202200500600700800900020016201

144、520011GWRest of the WorldMiddle East&AfricaAsia-PacificThe AmericasEuropeFIGURE 2.7:EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONSSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS00500600700800900020192018GWJapanUSAOther countriesOther IEA PVPS countriesChinaIndiaEuropean UnionFIGURE 2.8:2018-2021 GRO

145、WTH PER REGIONSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202216PV MARKET SEGMENTSSolar PV experienced another growth year mainly driven by utility-scale projects which continued to develop fast both in established markets and in countries which only appeared recently on the P

146、V development map.Although the role of distributed generation should not be underestimated,utility-scale PV is likely to keep dominating electricity generation in many countries.Themain reason is that economies of scale outweigh the savings in transmission costs and the self-consumption possibilitie

147、s brought by embedded installations.Ground mounted utility-scale PV installations increased in 2021 with more than 95 GW,compared to 86 GW in 2020 and 71 GW in 2019.However,the share of utility-scale still represented around 55%of cumulative installed capacity because distributed PV also grew signif

148、icantly,up to 78 GW in 2021 compared to 59 GW in 2020.Off-grid and edge-of-the-grid applications are increasingly integrated in these two large categories.UTILITY-SCALE PV:THE PV MARKET DRIVING FORCEUtility-scale PV plants are in general ground-mounted(orfloating)installations.In some cases,they cou

149、ld be used for self-consumption when close to large consumption centres or industries,butgenerally they feed electricity directly into the grid.Due to the simplicity of setting up policies to develop them,withor without tenders,utility-scale applications are thriving in new PV markets.More countries

150、 are proposing tendering processes to select the most competitive projects.Merchant PV,where PV electricity is directly sold to electricity markets or(C-)PPAs,where it is directly sold to(corporate)consumers is experiencing growth in numerous countries,but this market driver remains limited sofar.On

151、e of the key trends of 2021 is the wider development of utility-scale plants without financial incentives(on wholesale electricity markets or from private customers).Such development is mostly independent from financial incentives and therefore policy decisions,which makes its potential virtually un

152、limited.Limitations are already seen due to grid congestion in some places:this has modified the tendering approaches which might lead to bidding at the lowest possible cost to secure a grid connection.This has been seen in Portugal for instance.New utility-scale PV plants are increasingly using tra

153、ckers to maximise production and in parallel,the use of bifacial PV modules increases relatively fast as well.The addition of storage systems also becomes a trend in some countries,either pushed by specific rules in tenders or by the willingness to better serve the wholesale and grid services market

154、s.In 2021,utility-scale plants amounted to 95 GW globally and the total installed capacity for all of these applications amounted to 534 GW;or 56%of the cumulative installed capacity.TABLE 2.2:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALIZED PV INSTALLED IN 2021COUNTRYGWCHINA25,60USA20,26INDIA11,62SOUTH KOREA4,00SP

155、AIN3,50JAPAN2,99NETHERLANDS2,35FRANCE2,22GERMANY2,01AUSTRALIA1,71SOURCE IEA PVPSTABLE 2.3:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CUMULATIVE CENTRALIZED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2021COUNTRYGWCHINA199,94USA80,33INDIA52,90JAPAN30,12SOUTH KOREA18,91SPAIN15,23GERMANY11,10AUSTRALIA9,00NETHERLANDS8,49UK8,35SOURCE IEA PVPS17

156、IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022PROSUMERS,EMPOWERING CONSUMERSProsumers are consumers producing part of their own electricityconsumption.Historically driven by simple financial incentives such as net-metering,prosumers segments increasingly develop thanks to various schemes based on

157、 the concept of self-consumption.Indeed,the new generation of solar schemes is often making the distinction between the electricity consumed and the electricity injected into the grid,thereby incentivizing self-consumption.An important factor in the success of self-consumption schemes is the retail

158、electricity price which is still being maintained artificially low in some countries.Subsidies for fossil fuels are still a reality and reduce the attractiveness of solar PV installations,also in market segments involving self-consumption.Conversely,the PV market tends to grow quickly when electrici

159、ty prices increase.Overall,there is a trend toward self-consumption of PV electricity in most of countries,often with adequate regulations offering a value for the excess electricity.This can be done with a FiT,afeed-in-premium added to the spot market price or more complex net-billing.Unfortunately

160、,the move towards pure self-consumption schemes can create temporary market slowdowns,especially if the transition is abrupt.However,if the market conditions are favourable and the market regains confidence,self-consumption can become amarket driver.FIGURE 2.9:CENTRALIZED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER R

161、EGION 202060The AmericasMiddle East and AfricaEuropeAsia PacificGWFIGURE 2.10:CENTRALIZED PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 20200250300350The AmericasMiddle East and AfricaEuropeAsia PacificGWSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSThe distributed market has been

162、oscillating around 16-19 GW from 2011 to 2016,until China succeeded in developing its own distributed market:it allowed the distributed PV market to grow significantly to more than 36 GW globally in 2017 to 78 GW in 2021.Several countries promote collective and distributed self-consumption as a new

163、model for residential and commercial electricity customers.This model allows different consumers located in the same building or private area(collective self-consumption),or in the same geographical area which requires to use the public grid(distributed or virtual or delocalized self-consumption),to

164、 share the self-generated electricity,thereby unlocking access to self-consumption for a wide range of consumers.Such regulation,if well implemented,will allow development of new business models for prosumers,creating jobs and local added value while reducing the price of electricity for consumers a

165、nd energy communities.These models of production could also positively impact grid integration of PV systems by enhancing adequacy between production and demand.In the case of“virtual(ordistributed)self-consumption”,the prosumers are not grouped behind a meter.We will call“virtual(or distributed or

166、delocalized)self-consumption”,the case where production and consumption can be compensated at a certain distance,whilepaying a fair share to cover the gridcosts.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202218FIGURE 2.11:DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PERREGION 20230354045The Americ

167、asMiddle East and AfricaEuropeAsia PacificGWFIGURE 2.12:DISTRIBUTED PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 20200250The AmericasMiddle East and AfricaEuropeAsia PacificGWSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSTABLE 2.4:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED IN 2021COUNTRYG

168、WCHINA29,28USA6,62BRAZIL4,16GERMANY3,75JAPAN3,55AUSTRALIA3,20POLAND2,90INDIA2,04TAIWAN1,59SPAIN1,40SOURCE IEA PVPSTABLE 2.5:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2021COUNTRYGWCHINA108,22GERMANY48,56JAPAN48,11USA42,68AUSTRALIA16,68ITALY14,55VIETNAM10,46TURKEY9,73BRAZIL9

169、,08FRANCE8,70SOURCE IEA PVPSPV MARKET SEGMENTS/CONTINUED19IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTSGlobally,centralized PV continued to represent 56%of the market in 2021,mainly driven by China,the USA,and emerging PV markets.In the same trend as in previous years,

170、2021 saw again some new records in terms of PV electricity prices through extremely competitive tenders.Although renewed competitive FIGURE 2.13:ANNUAL SHARE OF CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED GRID-CONNECTED INSTALLATIONS 2011 2021%02040608020001320122011Grid-connected c

171、entralizedGrid-connected distributedSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSFIGURE 2.14:CUMULATIVE SHARE OF GRID CONNECTED PV INSTALLATIONS 2011 2021%02040608020001320122011Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERStenders contributed to the utility-sca

172、le market,distributed PV also increased significantly in 2021,with around 78 GW installed;with 29,3 GW from China alone.Remarkably,the distributed segment took off in the Middle East due to adequate policies in Israel andJordan.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202220With the exception of

173、 the European market which incentivized residential segments from the start,initially most of the major PV developments in emerging PV markets are coming from utility-scale PV.This evolution had different causes.Utility-scale PV requires developers and financing institutions to set up plants in a re

174、latively short time.This option allows the start of using PV electricity in a country faster than what distributed PV requires.Moreover,tenders are making PV electricity even more attractive in some regions.However,both trends are compatible as some policies were implemented recently in emerging mar

175、kets to incentivize rooftop installations and tenders for rooftop installations are being organized in several historical markets.FLOATING PV:A GROWING MARKET SEGMENTThe installed capacity of Floating PV(FPV)systems worldwide has surpassed 3 GWp in 2021,according to data from the Solar Energy Resear

176、ch Institute of Singapore(SERIS)at the National University of Singapore(NUS).SERIS maintains a global database of close to 700 projects in operation and more than 300 projects under planning,development,or construction.Apart from some installations in Europe,especially in the Netherlands,France,and

177、the UK,Floating Solar is so far mostly located in Asia with more than 85%deployed in East and South-East Asia.In densely populated areas the proximity of water bodies to load centers is often an advantage.Traditional land-based solar systems face either competing uses with industrial,or agricultural

178、 activities or may not be economically viable due to high cost of land.This is also why Japan was one of the early adopters of Floating PV and still has the highest number of FPV projects(200).Floating PV is even possible in city states such as Singapore,which inaugurated a 60 MWp FPV plant in June

179、2021 and has called for a study for another 140 MWp.The highest installed FPV capacity to-date is deployed in China(a total of 1,3GWp)where developers largely took advantage of water bodies that were created when former coal mines filled-up with ground water.These so-called subsidence areas are almo

180、st ideal as they are considered as unstable territories(hence not suitable for industrial or agricultural activities)and often have little bioactivities(leading to minimal environmental impacts).Another great opportunity for Floating Solar is the combination with existing hydropower dams.This is eve

181、n more so when conjointly operating the solar and hydro power generation(rather than pure colocation of the FPV plant on the reservoir).Apart from the diurnal cycle(i.e.,generating solar power during the day and saving water for hydropower generation at night),there is also a possible seasonal benef

182、it in areas with dry and wet seasons.Depending on the turbines and their reaction times,itis also possible to cloud some of the short-term variability from solar(due to could movements)and hence use the reservoirs as a“giant battery”.Many of the announced Floating Solar projects are on hydropower re

183、servoirs,for example in Thailand(3,5 GWp),Korea(2,1 GWp)and Laos(1,2 GWp).Another area of increasing interest are near-shore and off-shore marine floating PV projects.Such projects will see additional challenges but also almost endless opportunities.The challenges are the much more demanding environ

184、ments,where tidal currents,richer marine life,wind,waves and the presence of salt water all need to be considered.But the opportunities in near-shore areas alone are enormous:significant unused space can be activated for energy harvesting close to load centers in coastal settlements and harbours.Goi

185、ng further off-shore aggravates the challenges and cost but still has possible applications,especially for powering oil&gas platforms or for utilising the vast ocean spaces between the towers in off-shore wind farms.In those cases,the FPV project would take advantage of the existing transmission inf

186、rastructure and also of the fact that solar and wind generation are often complementary in their resource availability.The first such testbeds are being set up in the Netherlands and Belgium.In terms of floating structures,the vast majority of the FPV installations in operation use HDPE plastic floa

187、ts,for which Ciel&Terre and Sungrow together have more than 50%market share.There is an increasing number of players,however,which follow different designs,ranging from a combination of floats and metal structures(e.g.Zimmermann)to membranes that are held in place by large plastic rings(e.g.Ocean Su

188、n).For off-shore applications,more robust designs are being test-bedded,for example by Oceans of Energy or SolarDuck.AGRI-PV:DUAL USE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FASTThe development of PV on agricultural land had existed since the beginning of utility-scale PV but,in some cases,crops have been replaced by

189、 photovoltaics and thus the use land was mostly shifted from agriculture towards electricity production.Agri-PV proposes a different perspective with the possibility to use land for both purpose:food and energy production.With higher PV penetration rates,competition for land can limit PV development

190、 in a certain number of countries.Dual use of land is an option deeply investigated around the world to address this topic.EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTS/CONTINUED21IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022PV potential on agricultural land and how it can contribute to achieving renewable energy

191、 targets have been highlighted in some regions,and interest but also reluctance increased.On one hand the agri-PV market potential is unsurpassed.An example of the potential relative weight of this segment,in Japan a mapping of all agricultural land suitable for PV concluded that just 10%could hold

192、440 GW of PV,while 6,5 GW have been installed in 2021 for all the segments reaching 78,2 GW cumulative installed capacity.SouthKoreas perspective of agri-PV development is 10 GW in 2030,which is half of the cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2021(21,5 GW).In France,between 5 and 10 GW could

193、 be installed using 0,1%of the agricultural land(agricultural land covers half of the French territory)while annual installations achieved 3,4 GW in 2021.The potential of 1%of the European Unions agricultural lands had been calculated at 410 GW while 29,3 GW were installed in the European Union inst

194、alled in 2021.Even if PV potential is huge,other strong considerations must be taken into account.Food production security and sufficiency are the first priority.The various crises in 2020 and 2021 highlighted how crucial these aspects are.The agricultural sectors economic balance,environmental eval

195、uation,social acceptance and water management must be assessed and shape future regulations to ensure sustainable development.Following pioneer countries such as Japan,where“solar sharing”has been defined since 2003,and refers to PV installation above 2 m where 80%of agricultural yields are maintain

196、ed,France,Germany and Italy have published frameworks or guidelines in 2022.Cross-sectorial groups have been working on frameworks.Defining“agrivoltaic”,or“agrovoltaic”,“agri-PV”is challenging but a trend is clear:not every PV installation set up in an agricultural environment is considered an agriv

197、oltaic installation,and most existing plants on agricultural land could hardly qualify as such.Along the publications of the different frameworks and support mechanisms,in most countries agriPV or PV in agricultural land is segmented:PV systems above the crops or plants.The system allows raising dif

198、ferent kinds of crops with reduced solar insolation,allowing better development in sunny regions,and possibly new business models-such as recovery of damaged crops for instance-orgrowing different crops that would not have been profitable in some regions.This dual use imposes a different kind of PV

199、systems,which can in some cases change their position,from horizontal to vertical and be designed either to maximize PV production or maximize crop production depending on the weather conditions.Tracking systems are not the only component that can help maintain or enhance agricultural production whi

200、ch is a prerequisite to be labelled as agri-PV.Agricultural production profitability must dominate,and energy production is an addedvalue.Crops,grassland,animal husbandry between PV systems.The systems must enable the land to maintain its agricultural purpose.The space between the rows or the height

201、s is adapted.These systems are economically performant and cost effective.Energetic production dominates but agricultural production must be maintained.System costs and profitability vary depending on the importance given to agricultural production compared to energy production.Support mechanisms an

202、d financial aid intensity can also vary accordingly.PV systems falling under the most restrictive definition of agri-PV typically receive higher incentives or,insome countries,are even the only type of PV plant allowed to be developed in agricultural areas.For now,agriPV is still an emerging market.

203、Japan has seen more than 1 800 agriPV farms realised,most of them are small systems.Between 2013 and 2018,approximately 150 MW were installed,and between 500 to 600 MW in 2021.China has also an important capacity installed but this segment doesnt appear to be monitored separately.Italy announced a m

204、ajor funding package support for 2GW,including the so-called agriPV on roofs of rural areas.Specificcalls for tender have been set for agri-PV in numerous countries:in France for around 300 MW,in Germany for 150MW,in Israel for 100 MW,and in the Netherlands for45MW.BIPV:WAITING FOR THE UPTAKEThe BIP

205、V market remains a niche which is difficult to estimate.With multiple business models,different incentives,many kinds of buildings and infrastructures(including roads),from tiles and shingles for residential roofs to glass curtain walls and more exotic faade elements in case of commercial buildings,

206、BIPV covers different segments with a large variety of products.Depending on the definition considered,the BIPV market ranged from 200 MW to 400 MW per year in Europe last year and probably reached 1 GW globally.Indeed,the differences between custom-made elements and traditional glass-glass modules

207、can be difficult to assess.In that respect,simplified BIPV,using conventional PV modules with dedicated mounting structures,experienced positive developments in numerous EU countries in 2021,and is leading the BIPV market.The market is also split between some industrial products such as prefabricate

208、d tiles(found in the USA and multiple European countries for instance),to custom-made architectural products fabricated on demand.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202222OFF-GRID MARKET DEVELOPMENTNumbers for off-grid applications are generally not tracked with the same level of accuracy

209、as grid-connected applications.Theoff-grid and edge-of-the-grid market can hardly be compared to the grid-connected market because the rapid deployment of grid-connected PV dwarfed the off-grid market.Nevertheless,off-grid applications are developing more rapidly than in the past,mainly thanks to ru

210、ral electrification programs essentially in Asia and Africa but also in Latin America.In some countries in Asia and in Africa,off-grid systems with back-up represent an alternative to bringing the grid into remote areas or as an anticipation of grid connection.Two types of off-grid systems can be di

211、stinguished:Mini-grids,also termed as isolated grids,involve small-scale electricity generation with a capacity between 10 kW and 10MW.This grid uses one or more renewable energy sources(solar,hydro,wind,biomass)to generate electricity and serves a limited number of consumers in isolation from natio

212、nal electricity transmission network.Back-up power can be batteries and/or diesel generators.Stand-alone systems,for instance solar home systems(SHS)that are not connected to a central power distribution system and supply power for individual appliances,households or small(production)business.Batter

213、ies are also used to extend the duration of energy use.This trend is specific to countries that have enough solar resources throughout the year to make a PV system viable.In such countries,PV has been deployed to power off-grid cities and villages or for agricultural purposes such as water pumping i

214、nstallations.PV increasingly represents a competitive alternative to providing electricity in areas where traditional grids have not yet been deployed.In the same way as mobile phones are connecting people without the traditional lines,PV is expected to leapfrog complex and costly grid infrastructur

215、e,especially to reach the“last miles”.The challenge of providing electricity for lighting and communication,including access to the internet,will see the progress of PV as one of the most reliable and promising sources of electricity in developing countries in the coming years.Specificbusiness model

216、s are developed in Africa for instance and large energy groups such as Engie Energy access for instance are targeting millions of people with such products.In most developed countries in Europe,Asia or the Americas,this trend remains unseen,and the future development of off-grid applications will mo

217、st probably only be seen on remote islands.PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGIONThe early PV developments started with the introduction of incentives in Europe,particularly in Germany,and caused a major market uptake in Europe that peaked in 2008.While the global market size grew from around 200 MW in 2000 to a

218、round 1 GW in 2004,the market started to grow very fast,thanks to European markets in 2004.In 2008,Spain fuelled market development while Europe as a whole accounted for more than 80%of the global market:a performance repeated until 2010.From around 1 GW in 2004,the market doubled in 2007 and reache

219、d 8 GW and 17 GW in 2009 and 2010.From 2011 onward,the share of Asia and the Americas started to grow rapidly,with Asia taking the lead.This evolution is quite visible and still true today,with the share of the Asia-Pacific region stabilizing around 54%in 2021.Since then,Asia continues to lead PV de

220、velopment,with the other regions following.Detailed information about most IEA PVPS countries can be found in the yearly National Survey Reports and the Annual Report of the programme.IEA PVPS Task 1 representatives can be contacted for more information about their own individual countries.%01020304

221、05060708090100Middle East and AfricaEuropeThe AmericasAsia PacificFIGURE 2.15:ANNUAL GRID-CONNECTED CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLATIONS BY REGION IN 2021SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSGrid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributed23IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022THE AMERICAST

222、he Americas represented 40 GW of installations and a total cumulative capacity of 164 GW in 2021.Whilst most of these capacities are installed in the USA,several countries have started to install PV in the central and southern countries of the continent:first in Chile and Honduras and more recently

223、in Mexico and Brazil.PV is developing in the Americas mostly through tenders except in the USA.Distributed applications start to develop in several countries.Next to the USA market that dominates by far,instability has characterized the development of PV in most American countries in the last years,

224、with stop-and-go policies in Canada,Honduras or Mexico for instance.The market was dynamic in 2021 in Chile and Brazil,to mention these two,with prospects for development in several central American countries,such as CostaRica,Guatemala and more.Outside of the IEA PVPS membership,Brazil remains the

225、most important market:it finished the year 2021 with 13,7 GW ofcumulative PV installed capacity with most of the newly installed capacity coming from distributed generation.PV installations in Chile grew in 2021 reaching a cumulative installed capacity of 6,2 GW.In other countries,such as Argentina,

226、development is starting to take off,with around 960 MW cumulative installed capacity in the country at the end of 2021 and 200 MW installed in 2021.Othermulti-MW installations have been reported in Peru in recent years,in Honduras or in Colombia.Several other countries in Central and Latin America h

227、ave put support schemes in place for PV electricity,and an increasing number of power plants are connected to the grid mainly in Dominican Republic,Ecuador and El Salvador,closely followed by Uruguay and Panama which could indicate that the time has come for PV in the Americas.In countries with a hi

228、gh hydroelectricity contribution to the electricity mix,such as Venezuela,PV could become an alternative to the variable production due to changes in rain patterns.FIGURE 2.16:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN THE AMERICAS PER SEGMENT%02040608020001320122011Grid-conne

229、cted centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-gridSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202224ASIA-PACIFICThe Asia-Pacific region installed close to 93 GW in 2021 and the total installed capacity reached more than 540 GW.The market was dynamic in all parts of Asia,(in In

230、dia as well this year compared to 2020),and significant growth was recorded.In 2021 the region represented 57%of the global PV installations.As the most populated continent,Asia was poised to become the largest PV market globally and this happened relatively fast.Apart from the dynamism of China and

231、 Japan for several years now,Asia is home to several IEA-PVPS additional GW-scale markets:Australia,Korea,and also Thailand.The size of the Chinese PV market makes it a dominant player in the Asian and global PV markets,while all other markets are lagging.Outside of the IEA-PVPS network,the largest

232、market in terms of installations and potential is India.Given the population of the country,its potential would be at least at the level of China,or more,given the need for electrification.The Indian market developed in the last years but plateaued around the 10 GW mark on an annual basis,before goi

233、ng down to 4,4 GW in 2020 due to a series of administrative issues and difficulties.Some policy changes such as tariff ceilings and safeguard duties in combination with a falling currency also impacted the tendering procedures.In2018 and 2019,several tender procedures found very few bidders and even

234、 not enough takers in some cases.The support of the federal government in India for PV is obvious,especially now that the government raised its renewables ambition to 225GW towards 2022(and 100 GW for PV),but the road to a fast development implies additional policy changes.In 2021,the PV market in I

235、ndia was reinvigorated with 13,7 GW installed leading to a cumulative capacity of 61 GW.The International Solar Alliance(ISA)initiated by India and France and supported by more than 120 countries aims to install 1 000 GW in its member(emerging)countries by2030.In Vietnam,after a solar market take of

236、f in 2019 with over 5,2 GW installed(and a total installed capacity of 5,3 GW)and a boom in 2020 with at least 11,1 GW installed(mostly rooftop applications but also of utility-scale plants(including floating PV applications),the marker shrunk to 2 GW in 2021 pushing the total installed capacity to

237、18,4 GW.The government target for 2030,12 GW,isalready reached,much faster than expected,while the countrys electricity demand is expected to soar in the coming years.In 2021,Taiwan(Chinese Taipei)installed about 1,9 GW a steady growth compared to previous years.It now reaches around 7,7 GW of cumul

238、ative capacity.The market is supported by a FiT scheme guaranteed for 20 years.Larger systems and ground-mounted systems must be approved in a competitive bidding process.TheFiT level is higher for floating PV and the projects employing high-efficiency PV modules.In addition to these three countries

239、 where installations reached GW-scale levels,the market is dynamic in several other Asian countries,with the market being driven by utility-scale applications under tenders for instance in Indonesia,the Philippines,Nepal orKazakhstan.The Government of Bangladesh has been emphasizing the development

240、of solar home systems(SHS)and solar mini-grids since about half of the population has no access to electricity.Thanksto the decrease in prices of the systems and a well-conceived micro-credit scheme,off-grid PV deployment exploded in recent years.The country targets 3,2 GW of renewables by 2021,out

241、of which 1,7 GW of PV.The market is growing in several other countries,at a different speed,such as in Pakistan,where the government has published a target of 5 GW of solar power by 2022,therefore,more projects are expected to come online in the coming years.Last but not least,in Singapore,the total

242、 PV installed capacity was 630 MW at the end of 2021.Asia is a continent so diverse,that it can be difficult to derive trends from PV market development:however,the dynamics are positive and while the challenges,as seen in India,are numerous,a massive PV market suitable for energy transition goals i

243、s coming.In that respect,Asia will continue to dominate the PV charts and pave the way for larger adoption of PV globally.25IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022EUROPEIn the first years of this century,Europe led PV development for years and represented more than 70%of the global cumulat

244、ive PV market until 2012.From 2013 to 2017,European PV installations decreased while there has been rapid growth in the rest of the world,mainly in Asia and the Americas.The fast development of PV led to a strong opposition from many stakeholders from the energy sector,and the market declined rapidl

245、y in several countries.In addition,several countries implemented measures aiming at decreasing the cost of PV installations for the community by retroactively changing the remuneration levels or by adding taxes.This phenomenon happened mostly in Europe,where the fast development of PV took place bef

246、ore other regions of the world:Spain,Italy,Czech Republic,Belgium,France and others took some measures with a consequent impact on the confidence of developers and prosumers.But since then,the situation improved gradually in most countries and PV installations rose in Europe.This was the case again

247、in 2021.Europe saw its PV market growing again in 2021,with30,9GW installed,which accounted for 18%of the global PV market.European countries had close to 198 GW of cumulative PV capacity by the end of 2021,the second largest capacity globally.It is important to distinguish the European Union and it

248、s countries,which benefit from a common regulatory framework for part of the energy market,and other European countries which have their own energy regulations and are not part of the European Union.Most European countries used Feed-in Tariffs schemes to start developing PV and moved in the last yea

249、rs to self-consumption(or variants)for distributed PV while tenders became the standard for utility-scale PV.These trends are not typical to Europe,butself-consumption developed faster here than in other locations.Collective and delocalized self-consumption are developing in several countries.BIPV h

250、as been incentivized more than in any other location in the past but remains a niche market after several GW of installations.Simplified BIPV seems to develop well in some countries.Merchant utility-scale PV developed in Spain and Germany and could lead to a significant market share in a near future

251、.Portugal saw competitive tenders below a reasonable price in 2020,sign of speculation on grid connections.In general,PV development in Europe has experienced a significant acceleration,and rising electricity prices in 2022 are increasing the competitiveness of PV electricity.FIGURE 2.17:EVOLUTION O

252、F PV INSTALLATIONS IN ASIA PACIFIC PER SEGMENT%02040608020001320122011Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-gridSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202226European UnionPolicy Framework The European Union has a strong i

253、nfluence on climate and energy policies and has historically supported high renewable energy developments to tackle climate change.In recent years,the EU has set increasingly ambitious goals,which have been augmented several times:In December 2018,the revised European Renewable Energy Directive(RED

254、II)set a 32%renewable energy target by 2030,up to 20%in comparison with 2020.Since then,the target has been increased:the share of renewables in the EUs final energy consumption has been set to 45%by 2030.In 2019 the European Green Deal was introduced,an action plan to boost the efficient use of res

255、ources by moving to a clean,circular economy and to restore biodiversity and reduce pollution.Oneof the pillars of the European Green Deal is a commitment to be climate neutral by 2050.The European Commission raised the 2030 climate targets to 55%GHG reduction by 2030.In May 2021,the European Counci

256、l received a formal notification about the approval of the Recovery and Resilience Facility(RRF)by all Member States.Together with the next long-term budget,this represents EUR 2,02 trillion of spending between 2020 and 2027 which can be partially used to develop renewables including local manufactu

257、ring:Each recovery and resilience plan has to include a minimum of 37%of expenditure earmarked for actions to fight climate change.The recovery and resilience plans do not themselves set new targets for the deployment of renewables at a national level.Rather they define a package of strategic projec

258、ts,ranging from technological to socio-economic and administrative.Most national recovery and resilience plans include measures to support the installation of solar PV systems and targets for green hydrogen from renewable energy sources.This comprises the electrification of transport mentioned in va

259、rious plans that will require additional renewable electricity capacities.Rooftop installations are mentioned by several countries,often with regard to building renovation.However,total numbers are often difficult to derive as PV and wind are often bundled.In 2022,the REPowerEU has been proposed as

260、a joint European action for more affordable,secure,and sustainable energy:it has been deemed as necessary both to accelerate the energy transition and to secure the EUs energy supply and disconnect Europe from Russian gas and oil imports.REPowerEU includes short and medium-term milestones which aim

261、at a full independence from all Russian energy imports by 2027.The plan would bring the total renewable energy generation capacities to 1 236 GW by 2030,in comparison to the original“Fit for 55”1 067 GW planned by 2030.Also,as part of the REPowerEU plan,the EU Solar Energy Strategys aim is to boost

262、the roll-out of photovoltaic energy.Thisstrategy aims to bring online over 320 GW of solar PV capacity by 2025,and almost 600 GW by 2030.This plan will be FIGURE 2.18:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN EUROPE PER SEGMENT%02040608020001320122011Grid-connected centralize

263、dGrid-connected distributedOff-gridSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS27IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022paving the way for an era of renewable energy at affordable prices while accelerating their development.It aims at achieving energy savings,produce clean energy and diversify the EUs energy su

264、pply sources.The Cypriot Recovery Plan includes investments into an“EuroAsia Interconnector”in the territory of Cyprus.The Euro Asia Interconnector is a cross border interconnector between Crete,Cypriot,and Israeli power grids.The realisation of this 1208 km long interconnection would allow more PV

265、electricity capacity without additional storage.In March 2021,Cyprus,Greece and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding for the interconnector with a power capacity between 1 000 to 2000MWac.It is expected that the connection will be completed by 2024,with operations starting in 2025.The implica

266、tions for new PV capacity in the three partnering countries are significant.Different to its partners Cyprus has not yet revealed the planned additional renewable electricity capacity.Israel announced that the interconnection would allow an additional installation of 12 to 15 GW PV capacity by 2030.

267、Greece decided to phase out coal by 2028 and add an additional 5 GW of PV capacity by 2030.To do so,a strong interconnection as well as the announced energy storage framework are crucial.In March 2021,Hungary announced to close its last coal fired power plant 5 years earlier in 2025.This could lead

268、to an increase of PV deployment,meaning that the 2030 target of 6,5 GW can be reached earlier.To what extend the 2040 target of 12 GW of PV systems will be brought forward is not yet clear.The Polish recovery plan mentions rooftop PV but includes no concrete target.However,together with the Polish h

269、ydrogen strategy,which aims for 2 GW of electrolysers and the aim to replace coal heating system in residential buildings with heat pumps,will drive the demand for renewable electricity.The Polish Institute of Renewable Energy,responsible for tracking the capacity additions in the country,forecasts

270、that the cumulative installed capacity will exceed the NECP target in 2022 and could reach 15 GW by 2025 and over 20 GW by 2030.In Turkey,systems below 1 MW fall under the category of“nonlicenced plants”which allowed the market to take off.At the end of 2020,the cumulative capacity had exceeded 9,5

271、GW,most of it in the category of“non-licenced”according to the Turkish transmission operator.In May 2019,the Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority(EPDK)published new rules for net metering of PV systems with a capacity between 3 and 10 kW.Also,in May 2019,the Turkish Government amended the rule

272、s for“nonlicenced plants”increasing the project size up to 5 MW.However,only public installations used for agricultural irrigation,water treatment plants or waste treatment facilities are eligible as ground mountedprojects.State of PlayAt the end of 2021,the total installed PV power capacity in the

273、European Union had surpassed 170 GW.Almost 55%of this were residential and commercial rooftop installations.The PV market in the European Union was declining for six years before the trend reversed in 2018.This trend continued in 2021 when the European Union added upward of 28,7 GW of new PV power c

274、apacity.Spain(4,9 GW),Germany(5,8GW),Poland(3,7 GW),the Netherlands(3,6 GW)and France(3,4GW)can be mentioned as leading countries.Greece added over 1 GW while eight countries added more than 500 MW,namely Hungary,Austria,Denmark,Belgium,Italy,Portugal,Switzerland andSweden.Over the last few years,th

275、e number of European Member States conducting auctions for solar energy has continuously increased and driven down prices to the current average level of EUR 35/MWh and EUR 70/MWh across the European Union.In 2020,the second Portuguese auction attracted the lowest bids.The winning projects offered e

276、lectricity between EUR 11,2/MWh.Other European CountriesOutside of the IEA-PVPS network,UK installed 730 MW in 2021,still far from the GW-scale market it used to be a few years ago.The country had more than 14 GW of PV at the end of the year 2021,with a market mostly focused on small-scale applicati

277、ons.PPA-driven utility-scale PV could develop in the coming years.In the Russian Federation the“Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period Up to 2035”set a target share of renewable energy in total electricity production at 4.5%by 2024.Furthermore,the Russian government set a target of 25 GW for the i

278、nstallation of renewable electricity capacities towards 2030.In 2021 about 200 MW of new PV capacity was installed in Russia,increasing the total capacity to slightly above 2 GW(including ca 400 MW in Crimea).IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202228MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICAOver the past deca

279、de,many countries,especially in the Middle East have started to connect large-scale PV power plants and more are in the pipeline.Several countries are defining PV development plans and the prospects on the short to medium term are positive.The Middle East is amongst one of the most competitive place

280、s for PV installations,with PPAs granted through tendering processes among the lowest in the world.In 2021,around 6 GW have been installed in the region,representing 3,5%of the global market.In MEA(Middle East and Africa)countries,the development of PV remains modest compared to the larger markets,e

281、specially in the African countries.However,almost all countries saw a small development of PV in the last years and some of them a significant increase.There is a clear trend in most countries to include PV in energy planning,to set national targets and to prepare the regulatory framework to accommo

282、date PV.Next to IEA-PVPS countries with a dynamic market such as Israel and more recently Morocco,the regions PV development is extremely diverse with Egypt,Saudi Arabia and the UEA leading installations.In the middle East,the market has been driven mostly for competitive tenders for years and distr

283、ibuted applications started to develop only recently(net metering policies have been implemented in Israel,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and Tunisia).Often,energy prices are supported by government spending,which limited for years the ability of PV to compete.This situation is changing slowly,with new distrib

284、uted schemes being proposed such as in Dubai(UAE).Tenders are still competitive and SaudiArabia became early 2021 the country with the most competitive tender:the lowest acceptable bid reached 10,4 USD per MWh,the lowest on record.Another trend in the fast-developing region is the willingness for go

285、vernment to develop brand new cities or neighbourhoods,which aim at becoming showcases of renewable energies.This was the case for Masdar City(UAE)or Spark and Neom(Saudi Arabia).The situation is similar in northern Africa,with tenders driving PV market development in Egypt(even if the development w

286、as slower than expected),Algeria,and Morocco.In several countries,the question of local manufacturing is essential even if not yet visible in current policies.The willingness to manufacture locally and develop a manufacturing industry is present and will influence PV deployment in the coming years,e

287、specially in Morocco and SouthAfrica.FIGURE 2.19:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST PER SEGMENT%02040608020001320122011Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-gridSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS29IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICA

288、TIONS 2022In the Middle East,countries such as Saudi Arabia,Bahrain,Jordan,Oman and the United Arab Emirates have defined targets for renewable and solar energy for the coming years.Tenders are an integral part of the plans for PV development in the short or long term in the region,while several wer

289、e organized again in 2019 and 2020 and more have been announced.Almost 3 GWdc have been installed in the UAE through several plants and more is expected to come.Jordan is aiming for 1 GW of PV in 2030 and already launched several tenders and installed several hundreds of MW.Qatar published the resul

290、ts of its third tender for 800 MW in January 2020.Saudi Arabia launched a series of tenders in the past and has again in 2020,with an initial objective totalling 3,3 GW.Bahrain has announced the development of 225 MW;Oman has launched several tenders,each for at least 500 MW and plans to reach 4 GW

291、of RES capacity by 2030,Tunisia launched a tender for 500 MW and for 70 MW,Libya 100 MW.Lebanon plans 180 MW towards 2020 and is investigating a plant of 500 MW as well.In Sub-Saharan Africa,with the notable exception of South Africa,the market has been slower to develop.Development Aid is often a k

292、ey tool for financing hybrid PV systems and electrify directly through new grid connection.Egypt is the new African market leader with close to 300 MW installed in one year.The policies engaged for several years now have started to produce positive effects and the market is poised to develop further

293、.South Africa was the first major African PV market,under several tenders that led to 4,6 GW cumulatively installed at the end of 2021.While a large part of the market was driven by tenders,the market should rebalance towards rooftop applications in the coming years under government support.In Afric

294、a,besides the above-mentioned countries,Algeria has installed several hundreds of MW.Reunion Island,Senegal,Kenya,Mauritania,Namibia and Ghana have already installed some capacity.As the costs are decreasing,the interest in PV is growing in other African countries.However,the market has not really t

295、aken off despite the huge potential and the growing competitiveness of solar PV,especially in off-grid applications.The main barrier is the financial aspect as the higher upfront investment costs remains a barrier despite lower LCOE.The most competitive segment for the development of solar in Africa

296、,especially in remote areas,is PV plants to replace or complement existing diesel generators.Such kinds of hybrid plants have been developed in Democratic Republic of Congo,Rwanda,Ghana,Mali,Ivory Coast,Burkina Faso,Cameroon,Gambia,Mauritania,Benin,Sierra Leone,Lesotho and others.Pay-as-you-go model

297、s are used to leverage financing difficulties for residential consumers,different pricing formats exist to foster access to clean and reliable electricity.Several large-scale PV plants have been announced or are under construction in several countries in Africa:Burkina Faso(20MW and 30 MW),Namibia(4

298、5 MW and 30 MW),Nigeria(100 MW),Cameroon(30 MW and 25 MW projects ongoing)and Kenya(several projects ranging from 30 MW to 80 MW)to name just a few.The question of African power markets is essential since many countries have a small,centralized power demand,sometimes below 500 MW.In this respect,the

299、 question is not only to connect PV to the grid but also to reinforce the electricity grid infrastructure and interconnection with neighbouring countries.However,concerning remote areas,micro-grids and off-grid PV applications,such as water pumping installations,are expected to play a growing role i

300、n bringing affordable power to the consumers,in a continent with 700 million people still lack a basic access toelectricity.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202230TABLE 2.6:2021 PV MARKET STATISTICS IN DETAILCOUNTRY2021 ANNUAL CAPACITY(MW)2021 CUMULATIVE CAPACITY(MW)DECENTRALIZEDCENTRALI

301、ZEDTOTALDECENTRALIZEDCENTRALIZEDTOTALAUSTRALIA3 2311 7134 94417 0378 99826 035AUSTRIA658817392 6791042 783CANADA1183044211 5332 6024 135CHILE1 2501 4312 6811 3234 8426 165CHINA29 28025 60054 880108 580199 940308 520DENMARK2714477181 5148302 344FINLAND9551004085413FRANCE1 1332 2193 3508 7347 71616 45

302、0GERMANY3 7532 0085 76048 55911 10359 661ISRAEL6682679351 9391 4103 349ITALY8905494414 5468 04822 594JAPAN3 5532 9926 54548 29230 12178 413KOREA2283 9974 2252 640189 0821 548MALAYSIA301693707281 6032 330MEXICO8258011 6252 0406 1598 199MOROCCO-493-699NETHERLANDS1 2872 3453 6325 8618 48814 349NORWAY45

303、0452050205PORTUGAL91 0791 647SOUTH AFRICA584004581 0583 5724 630SPAIN1 4003 5004 9003 27715 22618 503SWEDEN576235991 6901081 798SWITZERLAND615686833 4312263 656THAILAND2502505009003 1784 078TURKEY8456471 4929 7351 18210 917UNITED STATES6 61820 25526 87342 67780 327123 004IEA PVPS 58 79769

304、 978129 267335 552417 642753 891NON-IEA PVPS19 31925 37344 20075 802116 697191 801TOTAL78 11695 351173 467411 354534 339945 692SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS31IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022threePOLICY FRAMEWORKIn the early phase of PV development,most markets have been powered by a broad

305、spectrum of support policies,fromfeed-in tariffs and direct subsidies to competitive calls for tender and premiums.The first aim was to reduce the gap between PVs cost of electricity and the price of conventional electricity sources thanks to financial support.The rapid price decline that PV experie

306、nced in the last years has enabled PV systems to reach competitive prices in several segments and countries(for more detail,see Chapter 6,competitiveness of PV electricity).The possibility to develop PV systems in many locations with limited or no financial incentives is now an observable reality.Di

307、rect long-term private contracts between PV plant owners and off-takers for the electricity produced(PPAs),and the sale of electricity on wholesale markets(merchant PV),have seen in an increasing number of countries in 2021(a large part of ground-mounted PV plants installed capacity in Spain in 2021

308、 was developed through PPAs).The growing competitiveness of PV electricity has also boosted the share of non-incentivized self-consumption PV installations,which have reached 6%in 2021.Moreover,the increase in energy costs in 2021 and 2022,and specifically electricity prices,have enhanced PV competi

309、tiveness in numerous countries.If high market prices for electricity remain,the question of competitiveness will change completely as will the way to conceive PV market support and policy framework.Without any support scheme limitation,thePV market potential looks virtually unlimited.However,the com

310、petitiveness of PV is not yet guaranteed in all segments and locations.Therefore,targeted financial incentives might still be needed for some years to overcome costs or investment barriers in specific countries.Support schemes are evolving according to market maturity,PV electricity competitiveness

311、and investor confidence.Predefined feed-in-tariffs that support centralized PV are being replaced in many countries by auctions with calls for tenders to propose the most competitive PV electricity.This mechanism can be adapted,setting the same auctions but for a variable premium,given on top of the

312、 wholesale market price where the electricity is sold.When no more incentive is needed,PV plants selling electricity through PPAs can be setup followed by plants that sell electricity directly to the market.Support for the distributed PV market often begins by setting feed-in tariffs too,which still

313、 support half of these segments in 2021(54%),even if the trend leans towards lower tariffs.In places where self-consumption is incentivized,supported initially by net-metering mechanisms turning to net-billing mechanisms,premiums or FiT tariffs for the excess electricity fed into the grid before com

314、petitive self-consumption without any incentives can take place.Since the question of the competitiveness of PV is less pressing,a large part of new policies is also focussed on self-consumption schemes,citizen communities and innovating forms of collective and delocalised self-consumption.Policies

315、supporting self-consumption might be considered as non-financial incentives since they set up the regulatory environment to allow consumers to become prosumers or an energy community.Even if electricity procurement can be compensated by PV production,taxes and the financing of distribution and trans

316、mission grids are still animating the debate,shaping the regulatory framework and impacting the business models and the price for PV electricity to compete.Photo by Denis Schroeder,NREL 60075IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202232In addition to direct policies supporting PV development,o

317、ther indirect policies have a tremendous effect on PV development.Sustainable building requirements,for instance,will become increasingly essential to support a long-lasting PV market development even if most of the time the requirements are technology agnostic.Electric vehicle development roadmaps

318、will also have a direct impact on electricity demand,as well as hydrogen production.Cross-sectoral aspects of PV development will also imply that PV will be submitted to additional regulations and policies,in the building and transport sector,but also in agriculture,the urban environment,water areas

319、(including the seas),industrial process and more.With the share of PV electricity growing in the electricity system of several countries,the question of integration to the electricity grid is becoming more acute.Simplification of inadequate and costly administrative barriers and streamlining of perm

320、it procedures is also a driver and progress has been noted in most countries in the last years.Today,climate policies have an indirect effect but are shifting the competitiveness of renewable energy sources upwards.FIGURE 3.1:EVOLUTION OF MARKET INCENTIVES AND ENABLERS:2010,2015,2021TRADING OF GREEN

321、 CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,3%FEED-IN TARIFF 85%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,11%TRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,2%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR PPA,7%FEED-IN TARIFF 60%NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION,0,2%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,16%INCENTIVIZED

322、 SELF-CONSUMPTION OR NET-METERING,15%TRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,3%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR PPA,20%NON INCENTIVIZED,17%FEED-IN TARIFF 28%NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION,6%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,16%INCENTIVIZED SELF CONSUMPTIONOR NET METERING/NET BILL

323、ING,10%203IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022PV MARKET DRIVERS AND SUPPORT SCHEMESThe question of market drivers is a complex one since the market is always driven by a combination of several regulations and incentives.In these figures,the focus is put on the major driver fo

324、r each macro-segment(distributed or centralized),while other drivers are playing a key role.This should be regarded as a general indication of the main PV drivers.FEED-IN TARIFFS Globally,about 28%of the PV installations are receiving a predefined tariff for part or all of their production;respectiv

325、ely 54%and 6%for the distributed and the centralized segments.There is a global trend towards lower tariffs.This decreasing FiTs are in line with the price decrease of the PV technology.The increase seen in 2021,although possibly temporary,might put the brakes on the tariffsdecline.The concept of Fi

326、T is quite simple.Electricity produced by the PV system and injected into the grid is paid at a predefined price and guaranteed during a fixed period.FiT are paid in general by official bodies or utilities in order to set-up a PV market segment.In theory,the price could be indexed on the inflation r

327、ate,but this is rarely the case.The FiT model generally assumes that a PV system produces electricity for injecting into the grid rather than for local consumption.However,a FiT can be used to incentivize self-consumption projects through a remuneration for the excess electricity injected into the g

328、rid.FIGURE 3.2A:MAIN DRIVERS OF THE DISTRIBUTED PV MARKET IN 2021TRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,0,3%FEED-IN TARIFF 54%NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION,14%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,9%INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION OR NET-METERING,23%78GWSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSFIGURE 3.

329、2B:MAIN DRIVERS OF THE CENTRALIZED PV MARKET IN 202195GWTRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,6%NON INCENTIVIZED,31%FEED-IN TARIFF,6%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,21%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR PPA,36%SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERSAmongst the IEA PVPS members many countries had a

330、 FiT scheme in 2021,in most cases to support the residential market(Australia,Canada,China,France,Germany,Japan,Portugal,Switzerland)The attractiveness of FiT has been slightly reduced compared to the early developments of PV but so far it still represents a major driver of PV installation,although

331、some countries announced aphase-out(such as Austria in 2021,Kenya in 2022).Depending on the country specifics,FiT can be defined at the national level and at the regional,county or city level(Australia,Canada,China,etc.)with some regions opting for it and others not,or with different characteristics

332、.FiT can also be granted by utilities themselves(Switzerland),outside of the policy framework to increase customer fidelity.FiT remains a very simple instrument to develop PV,but it needs to be fine-tuned on a regular basis to ensure a stable market development.Indeed,the market can grow out of cont

333、rol if there is an imbalance between the level off the tariffs and the effective cost of PV systems,especially when the budget available for the FiT payments is not limited.Most market booms in countries with unlimited FiT schemes were caused by the unpredictable steep price decrease of PV systems,while the level of the FiT was not adapted fast enough.This situation caused the market to grow out o