1、 !#$%&()*+,!国金证券研究所 分析师：廖馨瑶（执业 S05） 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S03） 联系人：叶思嘉 联系人：俞敏浩 春节消费前瞻关注返乡潮下中低线城市表现及高端酒旅?#$%&%&()*+,-.()*+,-./0123456789:;=0123456789:;?ABC?ABCDD!E!F GH!I GJKLMKNO6789PQRSTUVWXYKWZYKW!Y/456789:;_BC$STJa bYDc0defgPQhTijk IbYlm/STJa nYD op()qrstuvwxy/z|op*+,U45tuBtuD$Jtuk)/BD

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3、D$(EPQFJa/(EPQFJa/*+,UB45GHIJV/*+,UB45GHIJV/01KELMNO01KELMNO!khrkhrDDb“b”n!n!I(E!b Pc0QRK XFn 45$hT+X”nY$ST+XnY/b“!khr XXnbY/zSTKTKlTKUL:V!khr IXYKX“YKX!YKZFYDW!n!I/001KELMNi!khr!“FY$Olm/0IKELMNi!khr Y/_CaXY/Z$:V!khr”YK”XY/zrJa_DG/.()+k/#45GSKgQ$6789:;HIJ$UVDaa$bcbc#45()dglPQO#45()dglPQO b bb b kk/#

4、/#efefddghij6ghij6DDskl()!“Pglmno/!n!IpqWc0gl:V bb k$b!kklhr IY$I“Y/_J#Gva F$”rst/.()u:45/#KKvU45/_ bb hrQ!bYK!“”YKIY/_ bb hrQIIYKI“YKZIY/z#45lmwx/yk+kz!U/|vU45_D$GQAa GQAa/Bx/Bx/opop)NOrNOrDD!b E01GKKB*!khr FYKZbYKZ”YpR FbYKZYKZ!Y/“9ef!khr!Y/Qwx2”;N$wx/d$_P/x_ yD G$?$($KELMW!n!I?456789/op()qrstuvw

5、nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnX$Jtuk)/B nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnF$Jy()bcglpg b“b”K“!K!I nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!I#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!XZJbcglnopg b“b”K“!K!I nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!I XI01G;pg b“bbW!b nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

6、nnnnnnnnn!I X;pg b“bbW!b nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!F“B;pg b“bbW!b nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!F!nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!FbKELMNQJapYb“!/g b“b”K“!K!I nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!F”?KELMNQJapYb“!g b“b”K“!K!I

7、 nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!F(KELMNQJapYb“!g b“b”K“!K!I nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnb“FXKELMNQJapYb“!g b“b”K“!K!I nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnb“FF45pg b“b”K!K!nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnb“?#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!X!?()qr./823456*+,D!FW!I GJKLMKNO6789PQRSTUVWXnYKWZnbYKW!nYD?-/

8、456789:;_BC/STAm/STJa!nXYD!|456789:;|456789:;b b6789:;QST6789:;QSTppb“b”b“b”n n!n n!F!Fb“b”b“b”n n!n n!I!I -./:;-./:;b“b”k/01Q:;PD JKLMKKST:V!“nFYK”nYKZn!YKInYDop-U/()qrsUJ$Utuv vwxyvouD”c0|:;c0|:;-./:;k/c0defgPQhTijk IbYlm/STJa nYD G$7!#$/op:D#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!

9、F!c0defg:c0defg:-./:;?PQb“b”k!E G!X G/QPQST/STva IY/ijkhr!“YDLM$J$:;STva”Y$!Y$Y$ZY/ijkhr!bY$!IY$ZXY$!bIYDX XQ:;Q:;-./:;F FQ:;Q:;|5|5#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!Z!-./:;EFGH2Jtub“b”k!E!“G!F G/myST/k)Dm-hT!Y hT IYDA/BD!E!“G!E!F G/STU”XX/DmQ b”k#hT b!Y/hT!FXY/AABDZ ZCC */C4/C

10、4 I Izzzz */C4/C4 -./:;-./:;MM */C4/C4 !“!“MM /C4/C4 -./:;-./:;!-*!b!b *-./:;-./:;#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!I!”!”mQ:;mQ:;-./:;!/C4/C4 -./:;?J!STUV/B_DiyU/sST#/hT!-#/yhT$vaDST=D!E!“G!E!F G/%&*STU bY/hT!ZY/(

11、)*STU bY/hT bFYDE%&rY=$gz%&1D!E!“G!E!F G/%&*STU XY*ST YDUs();=g8D!E!“G!E!F G/%&*STUY/hT XFY()*STU FY/hT bbYD#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!X!X%&%&*/C4/C4 !F!F()()/C4/C4 -./:;-./:;!#$#$%&()*+,-./012&()*+,-./012 3#4#53#4#5667 7-./:;!I!I%&%&*/C4/C4 !*/C4/C4 -./:;-.

12、/:;#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!“!b“b“%&%&*/C4/C4 b!b!()()/C4/C4 -./:;-./:;(QSTvaD!E!“G!E!F G/*G?Z“Z/STva FYhTva b”YDbbbb */C4/C4 -./:;Jsy,xy-./yABC/)*”y+UVD!E!“G!E!FG/0?nZ,/hT!Y/1?bnFb,/hT bFYDy-Dr STA/ST ZYDb”b”/0/0 */C4/C4 bb11 */C4/C4 -./:;-./

13、:;#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!bXbX*/C4/C4 -./:;?APPAPP?J*#tui!STA/hTU2D!E!“G!E!F G/33?!Xb!/hTU FY/QST”YDBG?!n“b,/hT IY/QSTU”YDbUtu.A/8=#QrY/0/0;D!E!“G!E!F G/8?!F“Z/STU XYD%&C?!bF/hT bXY/ST YD”tu45yST67Am/s_89:yU;?D!E!“G!E!F G/ABC?”nI,/STU”Y/AB?Fnbb,/STU!YDbFbF3333 */C4/C4 bZbZBGBG */C

14、4/C4 -./:;-./:;bIbI88 */C4/C4 bb%&C%&C*/C4/C4#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!b!-./:;-./:;”“”“ABCABC */C4/C4 ”!”!ABAB /C4/C4 -./:;-./:;?GGSKEN;#/W b“b”n!n!I/#45LJN:V b“!khr XYKFXYKFYKIXY/STJ$UV/12.()+kzo/34rYGST45/5$6$7$?8$9:QO b“!khrlmD4

15、56789:;#/#45h;?A!Y$!“IY_wxD!8989%45GSKENQp45GSKENQpY Yb“!b“!hrhr7 7-./IJKL8019:;上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2023-01-1865%59%64%85%120%54%74%101%88%107%93%223%167%110%89%333%106%51%2023-01-1767%61%66%91%124%56%76%103%92%108%95%232%174%109%90%345%108%53%2023-01-1666%60%62%90%104%56%74%89%75%6

16、4%79%147%94%97%84%109%78%53%2023-01-1566%61%62%93%106%56%75%89%74%64%81%150%94%96%84%110%77%55%2023-01-1467%61%62%95%106%56%74%87%74%61%83%151%94%94%84%112%78%58%2023-01-1368%61%62%96%106%58%75%87%76%59%83%153%98%88%84%113%78%59%2023-01-1267%60%63%97%107%58%75%86%76%59%84%154%99%82%84%114%79%59%2023

17、-01-1167%60%63%98%107%58%76%85%76%59%84%154%100%79%85%112%80%58%2023-01-1066%60%63%99%107%57%76%85%75%58%84%152%99%78%85%111%81%59%2023-01-0964%60%63%98%107%56%75%84%73%58%82%149%98%76%85%109%82%59%2023-01-0858%54%61%91%101%52%71%80%69%55%77%142%95%72%82%101%81%58%2023-01-0759%58%61%92%104%52%71%79%

18、66%54%77%137%90%71%81%92%77%53%2023-01-0657%57%58%87%103%49%69%76%62%51%76%131%85%73%77%85%73%49%2023-01-0553%56%57%82%103%46%67%74%58%49%74%127%81%75%75%79%71%47%2023-01-0448%54%55%77%101%44%65%70%54%45%71%122%77%74%72%74%69%44%2023-01-0342%51%52%70%101%41%62%67%49%43%69%115%72%71%69%65%66%41%2023-

19、01-0237%49%50%64%100%38%60%63%44%40%66%107%67%68%67%59%63%38%2023-01-0137%52%49%62%106%38%61%62%42%40%67%103%66%68%68%60%62%35%2022-12-3133%47%47%56%102%35%59%57%39%39%64%99%72%69%70%64%64%35%2022-12-3031%46%45%51%102%33%57%53%36%37%62%93%69%62%68%69%61%32%2022-12-2928%43%41%46%99%30%54%47%34%35%58%

20、85%63%58%65%79%55%29%2022-12-2826%39%38%43%96%27%51%42%32%32%56%77%58%54%62%90%50%26%2022-12-2726%36%35%41%91%24%48%37%33%29%53%73%55%50%58%114%46%26%2022-12-2627%33%33%42%86%23%45%33%35%26%50%69%52%46%54%145%42%27%2022-12-2528%29%31%46%79%22%41%29%38%23%46%67%#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A2022-12-2429%27

21、%29%49%76%23%38%28%41%21%44%66%50%39%47%212%40%30%2022-12-2331%26%28%53%72%25%36%27%45%19%41%68%53%36%44%229%42%33%2022-12-2237%22%27%61%67%30%32%28%53%18%37%74%60%33%42%251%48%37%2022-12-2143%19%28%68%63%36%29%32%61%18%35%81%70%30%40%271%55%40%2022-12-2049%17%30%75%63%42%26%38%67%19%33%88%81%27%39%

22、298%63%43%2022-12-1956%15%33%82%65%49%25%45%75%21%32%98%93%25%40%327%72%46%#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!”!8888%456789:;Qp456789:;QpY Yb“!b“!hrhr7 7-./IJKL8019:;(E b“b”n!nZ/ir“P b“b”k(EB/C679D:EFG/b“b”k(ErYKgHNi b“nX,45/hT nXY/b“!khr Z“n”YDb“b”n!n!I(E!b Pc0QRK XFn 45$hT+X”nY$ST+XnY/b“!khr XXnbY/:67IJ#/STKTKlTKUL

23、:VRKI“K”IFKXbnXK!n 45/hT+bZn”YKFn!YK”!nXYK”nY$b“!khr IXYKX“n”YKX“nIYKZFYDc0BTHgN”Fnb K5/zKegN bbnb K5/ST!n!Y/T b“!khr!bnZY/T b“bbkhr!“nIYD”(ERKNp45(ERKNp45 -./8019:;北京上海广州深圳成都东莞杭州合肥南京宁波青岛苏州天津武汉西安长沙郑州重庆保定哈尔滨桂林哈尔滨 呼和浩特济南兰州南昌三亚厦门石家庄沈阳太原乌鲁木齐西宁2023-01-1893%95%87%86%99%83%92%94%102%89%96%95%104%99%112%98%

24、102%91%102%83%88%83%83%106%103%87%108%89%103%98%99%111%92%2023-01-1796%94%92%89%101%84%92%95%102%89%96%96%106%101%112%101%103%94%103%85%89%85%83%107%104%86%106%91%104%100%99%115%92%2023-01-1698%95%97%99%106%92%95%96%98%95%95%99%114%115%111%101%110%95%98%91%88%91%88%103%104%98%105%99%101%98%105%108%9

25、3%2023-01-1599%97%99%101%108%94%96%95%99%96%95%102%113%116%110%103%110%96%97%92%89%92%88%101%104%98%103%100%100%99%103%108%93%2023-01-1499%98%99%101%109%96%97%96%100%97%94%102%113%117%111%105%110%97%98%90%92%90%87%100%102%99%103%100%99%98%105%110%93%2023-01-1399%95%98%102%108%97%97%96%99%96%94%100%1

26、13%116%111%104%102%99%98%87%94%87%86%97%101%98%107%99%97%100%97%112%94%2023-01-12102%93%99%102%110%97%95%94%99%95%93%99%113%115%109%103%101%98%96%87%94%87%81%96%101%96%105%98%96%99%95%108%92%2023-01-11103%93%100%104%112%98%95%96%97%95%93%99%112%117%110%103%101%99%95%86%93%86%77%96%102%95%104%98%95%9

27、7%91%105%93%2023-01-10104%94%99%104%114%98%95%97%97%95%94%99%112%117%112%102%102%99%96%84%93%84%77%96%103%95%102%98%96%97%90%102%94%2023-01-09105%94%98%103%117%98%96%99%99%96%94%100%111%116%112%103%103%101%96%80%94%80%77%97%105%96%100%98%97%96%89%102%95%2023-01-0899%90%93%99%113%95%93%97%95%93%91%96

28、%107%111%108%99%100%97%94%73%91%73%75%94%102%93%98%93%94%91%85%102%93%2023-01-07105%93%95%101%114%96%95%98%97%95%95%98%109%113%109%100%101%101%95%75%90%75%76%97%104%94%98%95%98%94%85%101%94%2023-01-06102%92%94%98%113%93%93%97%96%93%94%97%107%112%106%97%102%98%93%74%88%74%75%97%104%93%96%92%97%92%89%

29、101%93%2023-01-05100%89%93%95%118%92%92%96%94%92%92%95%105%113%104%95%104%98%93%70%87%70%76%95%103%93%94%88%98%88%90%100%94%2023-01-0498%86%91%90%118%90%90%94%91%90%90%93%103%111%102%93%105%97%94%70%86%70%78%94%103%92%92%86%99%83%92%98%93%2023-01-0395%83%89%87%117%89%88%92%88%88%88%90%101%109%99%91%

30、105%95%93%71%85%71%77%92%102%91%90%83%97%82%90%97%92%2023-01-0291%81%86%84%116%87%85%89%84%86%85%88%99%108%95%89%105%93%93%70%84%70%75%88%100%89%89%81%94%81%88%96%91%2023-01-0195%80%87%83%121%87%85%89%85%86%86%88%100%113%97%91%106%96%94%72%84%72%74%88%101%90%89%82%97%84%88%96%91%2022-12-3191%76%84%8

31、0%118%85%82%86%81%84%82%84%97%108%94%86%104%93%93%70%83%70%71%84%99%86%87%79%95%82%87%94%88%2022-12-3090%75%82%80%117%86%81%84%81%83%82%84%96%108%92%85%102%93%95%73%83%73%70%84%98%86%86%79%95%81%89%90%88%2022-12-2987%74%80%78%106%84%80%81%78%82%81%82%94%104%89%82%97%89%94%76%80%76%70%82%96%82%86%81%

32、93%83%89%89%87%2022-12-2884%73%77%78%102%83%79%78%77%81%81%81%92%101%85%80%91%87%93%76%79%76%70%79%94%80%86%82%91%85%88%89%85%2022-12-2780%73%75%77%98%82%78%77%75%82%80%81%89%96%81%77%87%83%92%75%78%75%69%77%92%77%86%84%88%84%86%89%84%2022-12-2675%72%74%77%93%82%77%75%74%82%79%80%86%93%78%75%83%78%8

33、9%74%77%74%68%75%90%75%86%83%85%82%85%90%83%2022-12-2570%73%73%78%87%84%78%74%74%83%79%81%83%88%75%74%81%75%87%72%78%72%68%74%88%74%87%85%82%79%84%91%83%2022-12-2469%73%73%78%85%84%78%74%74%83%80%82%83%87%75%75%81%72%86%70%78%70%67%75%87%75%87%87%81%78%82%94%83%2022-12-2369%73%73%79%84%85%80%75%75%8

34、5%80%82%82%85%74%76%80%71%83%62%80%62%67%75%86%75%87%88%79%78%80%98%86%2022-12-2267%76%73%84%83%91%84%78%79%88%81%86%80%82%75%79%79%70%80%60%84%60%64%74%84%78%89%92%77%75%80%100%91%2022-12-2165%78%74%88%81%95%86%80%83%91%83%89%80%80%76%81%79%69%79%59%86%59%65%74%83%80%90%96%76%75%82%104%90%2022-12-2

35、065%82%75%93%81%99%90%84%88%95%86%93%80%80%79%85%79%69%78%58%90%58%67%75%82%84%92%99%76%74%84%109%91%2022-12-1964%86%77%97%81%102%93%88%94%98%90%98%81%80%83%89%79%71%78%60%92%60%69%76%82%88%94%104%76%74%87%110%91%2022-12-1865%91%79%100%83%105%96%93%101%101%94%101%82%81%89%95%81%72%77%64%95%64%70%78%

36、81%93%95%105%75%76%91%112%91%2022-12-1765%94%80%101%85%106%99%95%105%103%95%103%82%82%91%97%82%74%76%68%96%68%72%78%80%94%96%105%75%76%92%118%91%2022-12-1664%96%81%103%86%107%100%97%108%104%96%104%83%84%94%98%83%75%76%76%96%76%73%78%80%96%97%106%75%78%94%124%89%2022-12-1564%101%84%103%91%105%100%101

37、%110%105%100%108%87%88%99%100%86%77%76%80%95%80%77%81%80%98%97%105%76%82%96%126%85%2022-12-1465%103%85%103%95%103%101%102%110%105%102%108%90%91%103%101%88%78%75%81%95%81%77%82%79%100%97%104%76%85%96%125%86%2022-12-1366%104%86%101%98%102%100%102%109%104%103%107%92%94%105%100%90%79%74%82%95%82%76%83%7

38、8%100%97%102%76%87%97%122%87%2022-12-1266%104%87%100%101%102%100%100%108%104%103%107%94%99%107%99%93%80%73%84%95%84%74%83%78%101%97%101%77%89%98%122%88%2022-12-1167%105%88%100%103%101%100%98%106%105%103%107%96%102%109%97%94%80%73%83%95%83%72%83%78%101%96%98%77%90%97%121%88%2022-12-1067%104%89%99%104

39、%100%100%98%105%105%103%106%97%103%109%96%95%79%73%82%95%82%70%83%78%101%96%98%78%90%97%116%88%2022-12-0967%104%89%98%103%100%100%97%104%106%102%105%97%103%111%95%94%79%74%81%95%81%67%83%78%101%96%97%78%90%97%111%88%2022-12-0867%102%89%97%103%100%100%95%102%105%99%102%97%103%112%93%94%76%74%76%92%76

40、%64%82%78%100%95%96%78%88%96%111%88%2022-12-0767%102%89%97%103%99%102%94%103%107%99%102%96%102%111%93%95%73%73%74%88%74%62%81%78%102%95%95%76%85%97%111%85%2022-12-0667%104%87%97%103%99%103%93%103%109%97%103%95%99%112%94%95%71%73%72%85%72%60%79%78%101%95%95%75%82%96%112%81%2022-12-0566%106%85%96%99%9

41、9%104%94%104%110%95%105%94%94%110%96%91%69%73%73%82%73%56%76%77%101%95%94%74%79%94%113%81%2022-12-0466%105%83%96%95%99%103%94%103%108%95%105%92%89%105%96%86%66%72%73%79%73%56%74%76%101%96%97%72%78%92%115%80%2022-12-0365%103%83%97%94%99%101%92%100%107%94%104%91%87%101%95%84%65%71%73%77%73%57%74%76%99

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54、5678019:;0%20%40%60%80%100%120%---------11OCC（%19）ADR（%19）RevPAR（%19）0%20%40%60%80%100%120%------112022-01202

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