1、 LONG TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN 2018-2037 CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Transmission Division Ceylon Electricity Board Sri Lanka June 2018 LONG TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN 2018-2037 CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Tr

2、ansmission Division Ceylon Electricity Board Sri Lanka June 2018 Submitted to PUCSL for approval on 05th May 2017,PUCSL approval granted on 12th June 2018 Long Term Generation Expansion Planning Studies 2018-2037 Submitted to PUCSL for approval on 05th May 2017 PUCSL approval granted on 12th June 20

3、18 Compiled and prepared by The Generation Planning Unit Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka Long-term generation expansion planning studies are carried out every two years by the Transmission&Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri L

4、anka and this report is a biennial publication based on the results of the latest expansion planning studies.The data used in this study and the results of the study,which are published in this report,are intended purely for this purpose.Price Rs.4000.00 Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka,2018 Note:

5、Extracts from this book should not be reproduced without the approval of General Manager CEB Foreword The Report on Long Term Generation Expansion Planning Studies 2018-2037,presents the results of the latest expansion planning studies conducted by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of

6、the Ceylon Electricity Board for the planning period 2018-2037,and replaces the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2015-2034.This report,gives a comprehensive view of the existing generating system,future electricity demand and future power generation options in addition to the expansion study resu

7、lts.The latest available data were used in the study.The Planning Team wishes to express their gratitude to all those who have assisted in preparing the report.We would welcome suggestions,comments and criticism for the improvement of this publication.June 2018.Transmission and Generation Planning B

8、ranch Letters:5th Floor,Head Office Bldg.Tr.and Generation Planning Branch Ceylon Electricity Board 5th Floor,Ceylon Electricity Board Sir Chittampalam A.Gardinar Mw.P.O.Box 540 Colombo 02 Colombo,Sri Lanka e-mail:cegp.trceb.lk Tel:+94-11-2329812 Fax:+94-11-2434866 Prepared by:Reviewed by:M.B.S Sama

9、rasekara P.L.G.Kariyawasam Chief Engineer(Generation Planning and Design)Additional General Manager(Transmission)J Nanthakumar Electrical Engineers Deputy General Manager(Transmission&Generation Planning)T.L.B Attanayaka R.B Wijekoon D.C Hapuarachchi M.D.V Fernando K.H.A Kaushalya K.A.M.N.Pathiratne

10、 Any clarifications sought or request for copies of the report should be sent to the Deputy General Manager(Transmission and Generation Planning)at the address above.Page i CONTENT Page Contents i Annexes v List of Tables vi List of Figures viii Acronyms x Executive Summary E-1 1 Introduction 1-1 1.

11、1 Background 1-1 1.2 The Economy 1-1 1.2.1 Electricity and Economy 1-2 1.2.2 Economic Projections 1-2 1.3 Energy Sector 1-3 1.3.1 Energy Supply 1-3 1.3.2 1.3.3 Energy Demand Emissions From Energy Sector 1-4 1-5 1.4 Electricity Sector 1-6 1.4.1 1.4.2 Ease of Doing Business Access to electricity 1-6 1

12、-7 1.4.3 Electricity Consumption 1-8 1.4.4 Capacity and Demand 1-9 1.4.5 Generation 1-11 1.5 Planning Process 1-13 1.6 Objectives 1-13 1.7 Organization of the Report 1-13 2.The Existing and Committed Generating System 2-1 2.1 Hydro and Other Renewable Power Generation 2-1 2.1.1 CEB Owned Hydro and O

13、ther Renewable Power Plants 2-1 2.1.2 Other Renewable Power Plants Owned by IPPs 2-5 2.1.3 Capability of Existing Hydropower Plants 2-5 2.2 Thermal Generation 2-7 2.2.1 CEB Thermal Plants 2-7 2.2.2 Independent Power Producers(IPPs)2-10 3 Electricity Demand:Past and the Forecast 3-1 3.1 Past Demand 3

14、-1 3.2 3.3 Government Policies and Future Major Developments 3.2.1 Government Policies 3.2.2 Future Major Developments Demand Forecasting Methodology 3-3 3-3 3-3 3-4 3.3.1 Medium Term Demand Forecast(2017-2020)3-4 3.3.2 Long Term Demand Forecast(2021-2042)3-5 3.4 Base Demand Forecast 3-9 3.5 Develop

15、ment of END USER Model(MAED)for Load Projection 3-10 3.6 Demand Forecast Scenarios 3-12 3.7 Comparison with Past Forecasts 3-14 Page ii 3.8 Electricity Demand Reduction and Demand Side Management 3-15 4 Thermal Power Generation Options for Future Expansions 4-1 4.1 Thermal Options 4-1 4.1.1 Availabl

16、e Studies for Thermal Plants 4-1 4.1.2 Thermal Power Candidates 4-2 4.1.3 Candidate Thermal Plant Details 4-2 4.2 Fuel 4-4 4.3 Screening of Generation Options 4-8 4.3.1 Thermal Plant Specific Cost Comparison 4-8 4.4 Current Status of Non Committed Thermal Projects 4-8 4.5 India-Sri Lanka Electricity

17、 Grid Interconnection 4-10 5 Renewable Generation Options for Future Expansions 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Major Renewable Energy Development 5-2 5.2.1 Available Studies on Hydro Projects 5-2 5.2.2 Committed Hydro Power Projects 5-3 5.2.3 Candidate Hydro Power Projects 5-4 5.2.4 Details of the Can

18、didate Hydro Power 5-5 5.3 Hydro Power Capacity Extensions 5-6 5.3.1 Mahaweli Complex 5-6 5.3.2 Samanala Complex 5-8 5.3.3 Laxapana Complex 5-8 5.4 Pumped Storage Hydro Power for Peak Power Generation 5-9 5.5 Other Renewable Energy Development 5-10 5.5.1 Projected future development 5-10 5.5.2 Devel

19、opment Mannar wind farm project 5-15 5.5.3 Development of Rooftop Solar PV installations 5-15 5.5.4 Development of 60 x 1MW Solar PV projects 5-16 5.5.5 Renewable Energy integration Study 2018-2028 5-16 5.6 Renewable Energy Resource Estimation 5-17 5.6.1 Estimating Major Hydro Capacity and Energy Co

20、ntribution 5-17 5.6.2 Estimating Wind Capacity and Energy Contribution 5-17 5.6.3 Estimating Solar Capacity and Energy Contribution 5-18 5.6.4 Estimating Mini Hydro Capacity and Energy Contribution 5-19 5.6.5 Estimating Biomass Capacity and Energy Contribution 5-19 5.6.6 Municipal Solid Waste Based

21、Power Generation 5-19 5.6.7 Other forms of renewable energy technologies 5-20 6 Generation Expansion Planning Methodology and Parameters 6-1 6.1 Generation Planning Code 6-1 6.2 National Energy Policy and Strategies 6-1 6.3 Preliminary Screening of Generation Options 6-3 6.4 Planning Software Tools

22、6-3 6.4.1 SDDP and NCP Models 6-3 6.4.2 MAED Model 6-3 6.4.3 WASP Package 6-4 6.4.4 MESSAGE Software 6-4 6.4.5 OPTGEN Software 6-5 6.5 Hydro Power Development 6-5 Page iii 6.6 Assessment of Environmental Implications and Financial Scheduling 6-5 6.7 Modeling of Other Renewable Energy 6-5 6.8 Study P

23、arameters 6-6 6.8.1 Study Period 6-6 6.8.2 Economic Ground Rules 6-6 6.8.3 Plant Commissioning and retirements 6-6 6.8.4 Cost of Energy Not Served(ENS)6-6 6.8.5 Loss of Load Probability(LOLP)6-6 6.8.6 Reserve Margin 6-6 6.8.7 Discount Rate 6-7 6.8.8 Plant Capital Cost Distribution among Construction

24、 Years 6-7 6.8.9 Assumptions and Constraints Applied 6-7 7 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study 7-1 7.1 Results of the Preliminary Screening of Generation Options 7-1 7.2 Base Case Plan 7-2 7.2.1 System Capacity Distribution 7-5 7.2.2 System Energy Share 7-7 7.2.3 Fuel,Operation and Mainte

25、nance Cost 7-10 7.2.4 Reserve Margin and LOLP 7-12 7.2.5 Spinning Reserve Requirement 7-13 7.2.6 Base Case analysis using MESSAGE Energy Planning tool 7-13 7.2.7 Investment,Pricing and Environmental Implications 7-14 7.2.8 Reference Case 7-14 7.3 Fuel Diversification Scenarios 7-16 7.3.1 Future Coal

26、 Power Development Limited to 1800 MW 7-16 7.3.2 No Future Coal Power Development 7-17 7.3.3 Comparison of the Results 7-18 7.4 Impact of Demand Variation on Base Case Plan 7-19 7.5 Impact of Discount Rate Variation on Base Case Plan 7-19 7.6 Impact of Fuel Price Sensitivity on Base Case Plan 7-19 7

27、.7 Natural Gas Breakeven Price Analysis 7-20 7.7.1 Breakeven Price of Imported Natural Gas 7-21 7.7.2 Breakeven Price of Local Natural Gas 7-21 7.8.Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Development Scenario 7-22 7.9 HVDC Interconnection Scenario 7-22 7.9.1 Possibility of Reduction of Cost 7-22 7.10 External

28、ities 7-23 7.10.1 Local Environmental Damage Cost 7-23 7.10.2 Global Damage Cost of GHG Emissions 7-23 7.10.3 Environmental and Social Damage Cost Estimates 7-24 7.11 Comparison of Energy Supply alternatives in 2037 7-25 7.11.1 Global Context 7-25 7.11.2 Sri Lanka Context 7-26 7.12 Summary 7-27 Page

29、 iv 8 Implementation and Investment of Generation Projects 8-1 8.1 Committed and Candidate Power Plants in the Base Case 8-1 8.1.1 Committed Plants 8-1 8.1.2 Present Status of the Committed and Candidate Power Plants 8-1 8.2 Power Plants Identified in the Base Case Plan from 2018 to 2028 8-3 8.3 Imp

30、lementation Schedule 8-4 8.4 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2018 2037 and Financial Options 8-6 8.4.1 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2018 2037 8-6 8.4.2 Financial Options 8-6 8.5 Investment Plan Variation for Scenarios 8-7 8.6 Recommendations for the Base Case Plan 8-8 9 Environmental Implic

31、ations 9-1 9.1 Greenhouse Gases 9-1 9.2 Country Context 9-1 9.2.1 Overview of Emissions in Sri Lanka 9-1 9.2.2 Ambient Air Quality&Stack Emission Standards 9-2 9.3 Uncontrolled Emission Factors 9-5 9.4 Emission Control Technologies 9-5 9.5 Emission Factors Used 9-6 9.6 Environmental Implications Bas

32、e Case 9-8 9.7 Environmental Implications Other Scenarios 9-10 9.7.1 Comparison of Emissions 9-10 9.7.2 Cost Impacts of CO2 Emission Reduction 9-13 9.8 Climate Change 9-11 9.8.1 Background 9-14 9.8.2 Climate Finance 9-16 9.8.3 Sri Lankan Context 9-17 10 Revision to Previous Plan 10-1 10.1 Demand For

33、ecast 10-1 10.1.1 Analysis of Provincial Demand Profiles 10-1 10.1.2 Base Demand Forecast 10-2 10.2 Fuel Prices Variation 10-3 10.3 Revised Capability of Existing Hydro Power Plants 10-4 10.4 Integration of Other Renewable Energy(ORE)10-4 10.5 Introduction of Super Critical Coal Power Plants 10-4 10

34、.6 Reduction in Environmental Emissions 10-5 10.7 Overall Comparison 10-5 11 Contingency Analysis 11-1 11.1 Risk Events 11-1 11.1.1 Variation in Hydrology 11-1 11.1.2 Variation in Demand 11-1 11.1.3 Delays in Implementation of Power Plants 11-2 11.1.4 Long Period Outage of a Major Power Plant 11-2 1

35、1.2 Evaluation of Contingencies 11-3 11.2.1 Single Occurrence of Risk Events 11-3 11.2.2 Simultaneous Occurrence of Several Risk Events 11-3 11.3 Conclusion 11-7 Page v References Annexes Annex 2.1 Reservoir System in Mahaweli,Kelani and Walawe River Basins A2-1 Annex 3.1 Scenarios of the Demand For

36、ecast A3-1 Annex 4.1 Candidate Thermal Plant Data Sheets A4-1 Annex 5.1 Candidate Hydro Plant Data Sheets A5-1 Annex 5.2 Other Renewable Energy Tariff A5-3 Annex 5.3 Other Renewable Energy Projections for Low Demand Scenario and No Future Coal Power Development Scenario A5-4 Annex 5.4 Methodology of

37、 the Renewable Energy Integration Study 2018-2028 A5-5 Annex 5.5 Modeled Wind Turbine Characteristics and Power Plant Output A5-6 Annex 5.6 Annex 5.7 Solar and Mini-Hydro Plant Production Profiles Other Renewable Energy Sources Cost Details A5-11 A5-12 Annex 6.1 Methodology of the Screening of Curve

38、 A6-1 Annex 6.2 Energy Flow Chart of Electricity System A6-3 Annex 7.1 Screening of Generation Options A7-1 Annex 7.2 Capacity Balance for the Base Case 2018-2037 A7-4 Annex 7.3 Energy Balance for the Base Case 2018-2037 A7-5 Annex 7.4 Annual Energy Generation and Plant Factors A7-6 Annex 7.5 Fuel R

39、equirements and Expenditure on Fuel A7-14 Annex 7.6 Reference Case A7-15 Annex 7.7 Future coal power development limited to 1800 MW A7-16 Annex 7.8 No future coal power development A7-17 Annex 7.9 High Demand Case A7-18 Annex 7.10 Low Demand Case A7-19 Annex 7.11 High Discount Rate(15%)Case A7-20 An

40、nex 7.12 Low Discount Rate(3%)Case A7-21 Annex 7.13 Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Development A7-22 Annex 10.1 Actual Generation Expansions and the Plans from 1990-2015 A10-1 Page vi LIST OF TABLES Page E.1 Base Load Forecast:2018-2042 E-6 E.2 Base Case Plan(2018-2037)E-7 E.3 Summary of Case Study a

41、nalyses E-11 1.1 Demographic and Economic Indicators of Sri Lanka 1-2 1.2 Forecast of GDP Growth Rate in Real Terms 1-3 1.3 Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 15 1.4 CO2 Emissions in the Recent Past 15 1.5 Installed Capacity and Peak Demand 1-9 1.6 Electricity Generation 1992 2016 1-11

42、 2.1 Existing and Committed Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants 2-2 2.2 Existing Development of ORE 2-5 2.3 Expected Monthly Hydro Power and Energy Variation of the Existing Hydro Plants for the Selected Hydro Conditions 2-6 2.4 Details of Existing and Committed Thermal Plants 2-8 2.5 Characteris

43、tics of Existing and Committed CEB Owned Thermal Plants 2-9 2.6 Details of Existing and Committed IPP Plants 2-10 3.1 Electricity Demand in Sri Lanka,2002-2016 3-1 3.2 Variables Used for Econometric Modeling 3-5 3.3 Base Load Forecast 2018-2042 3-9 3.4 Main&Sub Sector Breakdown 3-10 3.5 Annual Avera

44、ge Growth Rate 2015-2040 3-11 3.6 MAED Reference Scenario 3-11 3.7 Comparison of Past Demand Forecasts with Actuals(in GWh)3-14 4.1 Capital Cost Details of Thermal Expansion Candidates 4-3 4.2 Characteristics of Candidate Thermal Plants 4-3 4.3 Oil Prices and Characteristics for Analysis 4-4 4.4 Coa

45、l Prices and Characteristics for Analysis 4-5 4.5 Associated Cost for LNG Development 4-6 4.6 Specific Cost of Candidate Thermal Plants in USCts/kWh(LKR/kWh)4-9 5.1 Characteristics of Candidate Hydro Plants 5-5 5.2 Capital Cost Details of Hydro Expansion Candidates 5-6 5.3 Specific Cost of Candidate

46、 Hydro Plants 5-6 5.4 Details of Victoria Expansion 5-7 5.5 Expansion Details of Samanalawewa Power Station 5-8 5.6 Pump Storage Power Plant Details 5-10 5.7 Energy and Demand Contribution from Other Renewable Sources 5-11 5.8 Projected Future Development of ORE(Assumed as Committed in Base Case Pla

47、n)5-12 5.9 Plant Factors of Wind and Solar Regimes Considered for the Study 5-14 5.10 Wind Measurement Data Availability of Five Wind Regimes 5-17 5.11 Main Parameters of Plant Modelling of Each Wind Regime 5-18 5.12 Results on Annual Energy Production of Each Wind Regime 5-18 5.13 Annual Plant Fact

48、or of Two Modelled Solar Regions 5-19 6.1 Electricity Generation Targets Envisaged for the Year 2015 6-2 6.2 Committed Power Plants 6-7 Page vii 6.3 Candidate Power Plants 6-8 6.4 Plant Retirement Schedule 6-8 7.1 Generation Expansion Planning Study-Base Case(2018-2037)7-3 7.2 Generation Expansion P

49、lanning Study-Base Case Capacity Additions(2018 2037)7-4 7.3 Capacity Additions by Plant Type Base Case 7-5 7.4 Cost of Fuel,Operation and Maintenance of Base Case 7-10 7.5 Capacity Additions by Plant Type-Reference Case 7-15 7.6 Reduction in Annual CO2 Emissions in Base Case Plan(In CO2 million ton

50、s)7-15 7.7 Capacity Additions by Plant Type-Future Coal Development Limited to 1800MW 7-16 7.8 Capacity Additions by Plant Type No Future Coal Power Development 7-17 7.9 Comparison of the scenarios 7-18 7.10 Fuel Price Escalation percentages(from 2018 prices)7-20 7.11 Cost impact of fuel price escal

51、ation of Base case and No Future Coal case 7-20 7.12 Fuel Handling Infrastructure Cost 7-21 7.13 Estimates for Social and Environmental Damage Cost 7-24 7.14 Present&Projected Power Generation Mix in Other Countries 7-26 7.15 Comparison of the Results of Expansion Planning Scenarios and Sensitivitie

52、s 7-27 8.1 ORE Additions 2018-2028 8-4 8.2 Investment Plan for Major Hydro&Thermal Projects(Base Case),2018-2037 8-10 8.3 Investment Plan for Major Wind&Solar Developments(Base Case),2018-2037 8-13 9.1 CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion 9-1 9.2 Ambient Air Quality Standards and Proposed Stack Emissi

53、on Standards of Sri Lanka 9-3 9.3 Comparison of Ambient Air Quality Standards of Different Countries and Organisation 9-3 9.4 Comparison of Emission Standards of Different Countries and Organisations 9-4 9.5 Uncontrolled Emission Factors(by Plant Technology)9-5 9.6 Abatement Factors of Typical Contr

54、ol Devices 9-6 9.7 Emission Factors of the Coal Power Plants 9-7 9.8 Emission Factors per Unit Generation 9-7 9.9 Air Emissions of Base Case 9-8 9.10 Summary of Major COP Decisions 9-15 11.1 Expected Annual Energy Output of Five Hydro Conditions and Difference Compared with Annual Average Hydro Ener

55、gy 11-1 11.2 Implementation Delays of Committed Power Plants 11-2 11.3 Details of Risk Event Outage of a Major Power Plant 11-2 11.4 Single Occurrence of Risk Events 11-3 11.5 Estimation of Annual Energy Shortage Risk with Plant Implementation Delay 11-3 11.6 Estimation of Annual Energy Deficit and

56、Energy Shortage Risk 11-4 11.7 Available Plant Capacities in Critical Period for Each Year 11-4 Page viii LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 Growth Rates of GDP and Electricity Sales 1-2 1.2 Share of Gross Primary Energy Supply by Source 1-4 1.3 Gross Energy Consumption by Sectors including Non-Commercial Sou

57、rces 1-4 1.4 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2014 1-6 1.5 Level of Electrification 1-7 1.6 Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2005-2016)1-8 1.7 Sectorial-Consumption of Electricity(2016)1-8 1.8 Sri Lanka Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2004-2016)1-9 1.9 Asian Countries Per Capita Electricity

58、 Consumption(2004-2013)1-9 1.10 Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand 1-10 1.11 Other Renewable Energy Capacity Development 1-10 1.12 Hydro-Thermal Share in the Recent Past 1-12 1.13 Renewable Share in the Recent Past 1-12 2.1 Location of Existing,Committed and Candidate Power Stations 2-3 2.2 Po

59、tential of Hydropower System from Past 35 Years Hydrological Data 2-6 2.3 Monthly Average Hydro Energy and Capacity Variation 2-7 3.1 Past System Loss 3-2 3.2 Past trend in the Load factor 3-2 3.3 Change in Daily Load Curve Over the Years 3-2 3.4 Consumption Share Among Different Consumer Categories

60、 3-3 3.5 Net Loss Forecast 2018-2042 3-7 3.6 Load Profile Shape Forecast 3-8 3.7 System Load Factor Forecast 2018-2042 3-8 3.8 Generation Forecast Comparison 3-12 3.9 Peak Demand Forecast Comparison 3-12 3.10 Generation Forecast of Low,High,Long Term Time Trend and MAED with Base 3-13 3.11 Peak Dema

61、nd Forecast of Low,High,Long Term Time Trend and MAED with Base 3-13 5.1 Three Selected Sited for PSPP After Preliminary Screening 5-10 5.2 Renewable Energy Capacity Development 5-13 5.3 Energy Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Share for Next 20 Years 5-14 7.1 Cumulative Capacity b

62、y Plant type in Base Case 7-6 7.2 Capacity Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 7-6 7.3 Capacity Wise Renewable Contribution over next 20 years 7-7 7.4 Energy Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 7-8 7.5 Percentage Share of Energy Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 7-8 7.6 Renewable Contribution over

63、 next 20 years in based on energy resources 7-9 7.7 Percentage Share of Renewables over next 20 years in Base Case 7-9 7.8 Fuel Requirement of Base Case 7-10 7.9 Expected Variation of Fuel Cost in Base Case 7-11 7.10 Expected Annual Coal and Natural Gas Requirement of the Base Case 7-12 7.11 Variati

64、on of Critical Reserve Margin and LOLP in Base Case 7-13 7.12 Capacity Contribution from Power Plant in a Day in March/April 2028 7-14 7.13 Percentage Energy Contribution by Plant Type of Future Coal Development Limited to 1800MW Case 7-17 Page ix 7.14 Percentage Energy Contribution by Plant Type of

65、 No Future Coal Power Development Case 7-18 7.15 Screening Curves for LNG and Coal Power Plants of 1200MW 7-21 7.16 Energy share comparison in 2037 7-26 8.1 Implementation Plan 2018-2037 8-5 8.2 Investment Plan for Base Case 2018-2037 8-6 8.3 Annual Cost of Operation 8-7 8.4 Total Annual Cost Compar

66、ison 8-8 9.1 Average Emission Factor 9-2 9.2(a)Comparison of Ambient Air Quality Standards Annual Average 9-4 9.2(b)Comparison of Ambient Air Quality Standards 24 Hour Average 9-4 9.3 Comparison of Stack Emission Standards and Stack Emission Levels of Coal Power Plants 9-4 9.4 PM,SO2,NOx and CO2 emi

67、ssions of Base Case Scenario 9-9 9.5 SO2,NOx and CO2 Emissions per kWh generated 9-9 9.6 SO2 Emissions 9-10 9.7 NOx Emissions 9-11 9.8 CO2 Emissions 9-11 9.9 Particulate Matter Emissions 9-12 9.10 Average Emission Factor Comparison 9-12 9.11 Comparison of System Cost with CO2 Emissions 9-13 9.12 Com

68、parison of Incremental Cost for CO2 Reduction 9-13 9.13 CO2 Emission Reduction in Base Case Compared to Reference Case 9-19 10.1(a)Demand variation of Whole Country 10-2 10.1(b)Demand variation of Whole Country without Western Province 10-2 10.2(a)Comparison of 2017 and 2014 Energy Demand Forecasts

69、10-2 10.2(b)Comparison of 2017 and 2014 Peak Demand Forecasts 10-3 10.3 Fuel price variation of LTGEP 2017 and LTGEP 2014 10-3 10.4 Comparison of ORE Capacity Addition between LTGEP 2017<GEP 2014 10-4 10.5 CO2 and Particulate Emissions 10-5 10.6 SOx and NOx Emissions 10-5 11.1 High and Low Energy

70、Demand Variation Compared to the Base Demand 11-2 11.2 Installed Capacity with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 1)11-5 11.3 Available Capacity in Critical Period with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 1)11-5 11.4 Available Capacity in Critical Period with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 2)11-6 11.5 Available

71、 Capacity in Critical Period with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 3)11-6 Page x ACRONYMS ADB -Asian Development Bank bcf -Billion Cubic Feet BOO -Build,Own and Operate BOOT -Build,Own,Operate and Transfer CCY -Combined Cycle Power Plant CEA -Central Environmental Authority CEB -Ceylon Electricity Boar

72、d CECB -Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau CIDA -Canadian International Development Agency CIF -Cost,Insurance and Freight CPC -Ceylon Petroleum Corporation CDM -Clean Development Mechanism CER -Certified Emission Reduction COP -Conference of Parties DSM -Demand Side Management DTF -Distance to

73、Frontier EIA -Environmental Impact Assessment ENPEP -Energy and Power Evaluation Package ENS -Energy Not Served EOI -Expression of Interest ESP -Electrostatic Precipitator EWE -Electrowatt Engineering FGD -Flue Gas Desulphurization FOB -Free On Board FOR -Forced Outage Rate GDP -Gross Domestic Produ

74、ct GHG -Green House Gases GIS -Geographic Information System GT -Gas Turbine HHV -Higher Heating Value HVDC -High Voltage Direct Current IAEA -International Atomic Energy Agency IDC -Interest During Construction IEA -International Energy Agency INDC -Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC

75、 -Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change IPP -Independent Power Producer ITDG -Intermediate Technology Development Group JBIC -Japan Bank for International Cooperation JICA -Japan International Cooperation Agency LKR -Sri Lanka Rupees KPS -Kelanatissa Power Station LCC -Line Commutated Converter

76、 LCOE -Levelised Cost of Electricity Page xi LDC -Load Duration Curve LF -Load Factor LNG -Liquefied Natural Gas LOLP -Loss of Load Probability LTGEP -Long Term Generation Expansion Plan mscfd -Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day MAED -The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand MMBTU -Million British T

77、hermal Units MTPA -Million Tons Per Annum NDC -Nationally Determined Contributions NEPS -National Energy Policy and Strategy NG -Natural Gas OECD -Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECF -Overseas Economic Co-operation Fund ORE -Other Renewable Energy OTEC -Ocean Thermal Energy C

78、onversion O&M -Operation and Maintenance PF -Plant Factor PM -Particulate Matter PPA -Power Purchase Agreement PSPP -Pumped Storage Power Plant PV -Present Value RFP -Request For Proposals SAM -System Advisor Model SDDP -Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming ST -Steam Turbine SYSIM -System Simulation

79、Model UNFCCC -United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID -United States Agency for International Development US$-American Dollars WASP -Wien Automatic System Planning Package WB -World Bank WHO -World Health Organization VSC -Voltage Source Converter Generation Expansion Plan 2017 E

80、-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Ceylon Electricity Board(CEB)is under a statutory duty to develop and maintain an efficient,coordinated and economical system of Electricity Supply for the whole of Sri Lanka.Therefore,CEB is required to generate or acquire sufficient amount of electricity to satisfy the dem

81、and.CEB methodically plans its development activities in order to provide reliable,quality electricity to the entire nation at affordable prices.This report presents the Generation Expansion Planning Studies carried out by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Boa

82、rd for the period 2018-2037.The Report also includes information on the existing generation system,generation planning methodology,system demand forecast and investment and implementation plans for the proposed projects and recommends the adoption of the least cost plant sequence derived for the bas

83、e case and also emphasizes the need to implement the plan to avoid energy shortfalls.The Demand Forecasting methodology consists of combination of time trend modelling and Econometric approach while incorporating the expected new mega development projects identified by the government.Sri Lanka Susta

84、inable Energy Authority(SEA)has been entrusted the task of Operation Demand Side Management(ODSM)which will be carried out by a Presidential Task Force on Energy Demand Side Management(PTF on EDSM)and guided by a National Steering Committee(NSC).The formidable barriers to implementation of the DSM p

85、rogramme should be further analysed with associated costs,to gain a better understanding of the benefits and costs of the programme.In addition,in the present mode of implementation,utilities do not have a proper control over the implementation of DSM as it will depend on consumer attitudes.With the

86、 subsidies given to the electricity sector in different categories,ensuring deterministic demand reduction may not be feasible or realistic.Therefore,the DSM forecast having highly speculative public response dependent demand reduction,is not considered as a base in the determination of the future e

87、xpansion plan.However the medium term time trend forecast model will capture the recent year trends including the impact on present DSM activities.It is noted the merits of the DSM program will benefit the electricity industry and is very much encouraged.Separate Analysis was carried out with regard

88、 to night peak,day peak and off peak for the provinces and the country.It was observed that the growth rate of day peak is higher than the night peak.It is predicted that day peak will surpass the night peak by 2030.The Load Forecast used is given in Table E.1.E-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Sri

89、Lanka,a country vulnerable to climate change impacts presented the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDC)to strengthen the global efforts of both mitigation and adaptation.In response to challenges posed by climate change,Sri Lanka has taken several positive steps by introducing national

90、 policies,strategies and actions in order to address climate change induced impacts.While fulfilling the increasing national electricity demand and integrating more renewable sources in combination with conventional fossil source based energy sources;a detail electricity generation expansion plan ha

91、s been developed.The National Energy Policy and Strategy(NEPS)anticipates increasing share of Other Renewable Energy resources and has encouraged use of competitive bidding.Further it is expecting to reduce energy losses by improving of energy distribution infrastructure and energy saving through in

92、troduction of Demand Side Management(DSM).Proposed INDCs are to suggest further actions and sub actions which could directly or indirectly influence to reduction of GHG emission in the energy sector by modifying,adapting and applying new technology in the field.The establishment of large scale wind

93、power farms and adapting of advanced technologies available for broadening the solar power electricity generation is envisioned,while promoting the use of biomass(fuel wood)and waste(municipal waste,industrial and agricultural waste)by elevating its use in the power generation as a modern and conven

94、ient energy source.Mini and Micro Hydro Power generation projects are absorbed as an environmental friendly power generation option to national economy.These major contributors will fulfil the Sri Lankas obligations on Climate Change mitigation commitment from Electricity Sector which were considere

95、d during the preparation of LTGEP 2018-2037.The methodology adopted in the studies optimally selects plant additions from given thermal as well as renewable generation expansion candidates,which will,together with existing and committed power plants meet the forecast electricity demand with a given

96、level of reliability complying with National Energy Policy&Strategies(2008).Several analyses have been carried out to facilitate identification of Energy Mix&Fuel Diversification Policies and Climate Change Mitigation Actions.Possible electricity demand growth variations,the impact on variation in d

97、iscount rate and fuel price have been considered in the sensitivity studies.Each plant sequence presented in this report is the least cost plant sequence for the given scenario.The candidate thermal power plant options considered in the study were 35MW&105MW Diesel-fired Gas Turbines,150MW&300MW die

98、sel operated Combined Cycle Plants,150 MW&300MW LNG fired combined cycle plants,300MW high efficient sub critical and 600MW Generation Expansion Plan 2017 E-3 Super critical coal-fired steam plants,600MW Nuclear power plants,15 MW Reciprocating Engines and 5 MW Dendro Power Plants.The renewable ener

99、gy projects of 35MW Broadlands(2020),122MW Uma Oya(2019)and 30.2MW Morogolla(2022)were considered as committed Power Projects.The commissioning schedules of the hydro projects given by the respective Project were used in the preparation of the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan.The proposed hydro p

100、ower plants,15MW Thalpitigala by year 2020 and 20MW Gin Ganga by year 2022 were considered as candidate plants considering the Cabinet approvals secured by the Ministry of the Irrigation and Water Resource Management.The proposed 20MW Seethawaka Ganga will be developed by Ceylon Electricity Board by

101、 year 2022.The first 100MW Semi dispatchable wind farm developed by Ceylon Electricity Board is considered committed and is expected to be commissioned by 2020.The remaining 275 MW of wind power in Mannar will be developed in stages.The main objective of the development of the wind farm by Ceylon El

102、ectricity Board is to pass the economic benefit of the indigenous resource to all the electricity users in the Country.The 3 x 35 MW Gas turbines at Kelanitissa(2019/2020)and 300 MW multi-fuel combined cycle power plant on a BOOT basis,to be constructed in Kerawalapitiya(2019/2020)is identified as c

103、ommitted thermal power plants.Furthermore Capacities of 100 MW and 70 MW furnace oil plants is expected to be commissioned by 2018.In the Base Case Plan,the contribution from Other Renewable Energy(ORE)was considered and the different ORE technologies were modelled appropriately.The energy contribut

104、ion from ORE plants were maintained above 20%from 2020 onwards complying with the Government Policies.Capacity contribution from Biomass,Wind and Solar plants were taken in to the consideration and delays in implementation would cause impacts in capacity and energy balances.A separate Renewable inte

105、gration study was carried out to identify the renewable resource allocation by minimizing the costs.The operational flexibility reflecting the transmission system constraints were considered in this study.A strong renewable energy development is envisioned which shall increase the annual renewable c

106、apacity absorption level to 4 times higher than the previous 12 years.The total addition of renewable energy within the 20 year period is 1205 MW of wind power,1232 MW of Solar power 200 MW of Mini Hydro power and 80 MW of Bio mass Power.The increased absorption levels of ORE shall maximize the util

107、ization of indigenous natural resources.However during the dry period associated energy from the ORE shall reduce significantly.E-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Decentralized solar power generation is a promising technology to cater the growing energy needs.Apart from the utility scale development

108、s,small scale(1MW)and roof top solar takes plays a significant role and considered effective since energy sources are located at the end user.In view of further enhancing the renewable energy portfolio in the electricity generation in Sri Lanka,the Government of Sri Lanka(GOSL)has launched accelerat

109、ed solar development program in 2016 to promote roof top solar installations in the country.The objective of the above program is to reach an installed capacity of roof top solar to 200MW by 2020.In order to support the GOSLs renewable energy promotional drive,the Net Metering Concept was further en

110、hanced by introducing another two schemes.The scheduled 2x250MW Coal Plants by Trincomalee Power Company Limited which had a prolonged development process over the past years was not granted the approval by PUCSL in the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2015-2034,indicating the letter sent by the

111、Secretary to the MOPRE for the undertaking given to the Supreme Court Case No SCFR 179/2016.However future coal power development has been identified as an integral requirement for catering the power sector demand at lower cost.The Foul point in Trincomalee identified in the NEDO,Japan team study is

112、 the most promising site of the available locations for future coal development.All the future coal fired power plant are proposed to be high efficient with strict emission controls,Indoor coal storages and enclosed coal handling and management facilities.Such mitigation measures result in an additi

113、onal capital cost of approximately 700USD/kW compared with conventional coal power plant.In order to countermeasure for environmental impacts the Supercritical Power plants were selected instead of subcritical coal power plants for development beyond 2025.The possibility of evaluating the introducti

114、on of super critical technology for the coal power plants proposed before year 2025 would be carried out.Supercritical technology based units have enhanced efficiency of power generation which shall reduce coal consumption and overall emissions.The transmission system limitations is considered when

115、identifying possible integration period of introducing the super critical power plants.The environmental impact mitigation costs are reflected through adoption of superior eco-friendly technologies.These proposed coal power plants shall strictly comply with the prevailing Sri Lankan and Internationa

116、l emission standards.Incorporating LNG fired power plants to Sri Lankan power system was also studied.The present trend of LNG fuel prices were considered with the possibility of recovering the capital cost of LNG infrastructure.The option of adopting a land based LNG terminal or Floating Storage Re

117、gasification Unit(FSRU)is to be further evaluated.However LNG infrastructure must be established by 2020 in order gain the maximum benefit of environmental impact mitigation.Generation Expansion Plan 2017 E-5 The combined cycle plants which are operating using oil in western region shall be converte

118、d to LNG immediately when the facility is made available in 2020.The main load center of Sri Lanka is also located in the western region.In order to minimize the Transmission losses,development of power plants closer to the load center is identified.Therefore the development of LNG operated Power pl

119、ants in western region is identified which will comply with the environmental requirements in the western region.Due consideration was given to the availability of natural gas in the Mannar Basin and utilization of the natural gas as a fuel option for the power sector.Possibility of introducing indi

120、genous Natural Gas in Mannar Basin by year 2020 is considered although the determination of the quantity and appropriate price is to be validated.Discovery of the natural gas resources is still at very early stages in Mannar Basin.However high priority for the local natural gas utilization shall be

121、considered when the price is competitive with foreign markets.Social damage should be evaluated independently in terms location of specific studies.During the implementation stage all necessary measures are evaluated and addressed through the Environmental Impact Assessment of each project.The damag

122、e from air pollutants can be mitigated by complying with relevant guideline related to emissions and the damage from thermal pollution could be mitigated by complying with appropriate procedures for thermal discharges.Social and ecological aspects and mitigation actions will be identified during Env

123、ironmental Impact Assessment.Damage costs are influenced by income level of a country,population density around power plants and the specifications of each type of power plant and therefore will not be considered for evaluation.It was considered that 163MW Sojitz Kelanitissa Power Plant would be ope

124、rated by CEB after acquiring the plant at the end of the Power Purchase Agreement in 2023.All the other IPP Plants were retired as the contract agreements expire.However Ministry of Power and Renewable Energy has appointed several committees to look into the feasibility of acquiring and operating th

125、e asset by CEB once the contract period expires.Base Case Plan is given in the Table E.2 and also in the Table 7.1 of the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan.The Capacity Balance,Energy Balance and Dispatch Schedule are given in Annex:7.2,Annex:7.3 and Annex:7.4 respectively.Scenarios were carried o

126、ut restricting the implementation of coal power plants to determine the cost impact with Base Case Plan.In first scenario,future coal power development was restricted to 1800MW.LNG and Nuclear plants were forced to bridge the gap.The second scenario,development of coal plants were not allowed and LN

127、G power plants were selected to bridge the gap.E-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Table E.1-Base Load Forecast:2018-2042 Year Demand Net Losses*Net Generation Peak Demand(GWh)Growth Rate(%)(%)(GWh)Growth Rate(%)(MW)2018 14588 6.8%9.88 16188 6.8%2738 2019 15583 6.8%9.84 17285 6.8%2903 2020 16646 6.8%

128、9.81 18456 6.8%3077 2021 17478 5.0%9.77 19370 5.0%3208 2022 18353 5.0%9.73 20331 5.0%3346 2023 19273 5.0%9.69 21342 5.0%3491 2024 20242 5.0%9.65 22404 5.0%3643 2025 21260 5.0%9.61 23522 5.0%3804 2026 22332 5.0%9.58 24697 5.0%3972 2027 23459 5.0%9.54 25933 5.0%4149 2028 24639 5.0%9.50 27225 5.0%4335

129、2029 25867 5.0%9.46 28570 4.9%4527 2030*27164 5.0%9.42 29990 5.0%4726 2031 28388 4.5%9.38 31328 4.5%4939 2032 29637 4.4%9.35 32692 4.4%5157 2033 30926 4.3%9.31 34099 4.3%5381 2034 32251 4.3%9.27 35546 4.2%5612 2035 33642 4.3%9.23 37063 4.3%5854 2036 35090 4.3%9.19 38642 4.3%6107 2037 36613 4.3%9.15

130、40302 4.3%6372 2038 38165 4.2%9.12 41992 4.2%6642 2039 39733 4.1%9.08 43699 4.1%6915 2040 41324 4.0%9.04 45431 4.0%7193 2041 42967 4.0%9.02 47227 4.0%7481 2042 44700 4.0%9.00 49121 4.0%7784 5 Year Average Growth 5.9%5.9%5.1%10 Year Average Growth 5.4%5.4%4.7%20 Year Average Growth 5.0%4.9%4.5%25 Yea

131、r Average Growth 4.8%4.7%4.4%*Net losses include losses at the Transmission&Distribution levels and any non-technical losses,Generation(Including auxiliary consumption)losses are excluded.This forecast will vary depend on the hydro thermal generation mix of the future.*It is expected that day peak w

132、ould surpass the night peak from this year onwardsGeneration Expansion Plan 2017 E-7 Table E.2 Base Case Plan 2018-2037 YEAR RENEWABLE ADDITIONS THERMAL ADDITIONS THERMAL RETIREMENTS LOLP%2018 Mini Hydro 15 MW Biomass 5 MW Solar 160 MW 100 MW Furnace Oil fired Power Plant*70 MW Furnace Oil fired Pow

133、er Plant*150 MW Furnace Oil fired Power Plant*8x6.13 MW Asia Power 1.245 Major Hydro 122 MW (Uma Oya HPP)2x35 MW Gas Turbine 1x300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region+-0.220 2019 Mini Hydro 15 MW Solar 95 MW Wind 50 MW Biomass 5 MW 2020 Major Hydro 35 MW (Broadlands HPP)15

134、 MW (Thalpitigala HPP)1x35 MW Gas Turbine 6x5 MW Northern Power 0.237 Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 15 MW Solar 105 MW (Mannar Wind Park)Wind 120 MW Biomass 5 MW 2021 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 75 MW Biomass 5 MW 1x300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region 4x17 MW Kelanitiss

135、a Gas Turbines 0.107 2022 Major Hydro 30 MW (Moragolla HPP)20 MW (Seethawaka HPP)20 MW (Gin Ganga HPP)0.237 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 6 MW Wind 50 MW Biomass 5 MW 2023 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 60 MW Biomass 5 MW 1x300 MW New Coal Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)163 MW C

136、ombined Cycle Power Plant(KPS2)115 MW Gas Turbine*4x9 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel Ext.*163 MW Sojitz Kelanitissa Combined Cycle Plant 0.205 2024 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 45 MW Biomass 5 MW 1x300 MW New Coal Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)4x18 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel 0.145

137、 2025 Major Hydro 200 MW (Pumped Storage Power Plant)1x300 MW New Coal Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)4x9 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel Ext.4x15 MW CEB Barge Power Plant 0.026 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 104 MW Wind 85 MW Biomass 5 MW 2026 Major Hydro 200 MW (Pumped Storage Power Plant)

138、-0.019 Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW Solar 55 MW 2027 Major Hydro 200 MW (Pumped Storage Power Plant)-0.012 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 54 MW Wind 25 MW Biomass 5 MW 2028 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 105 MW Wind 45 MW Biomass 5 MW 1x600 MW New Supercritical Coal Power Plant-0.002 2029 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 54

139、 MW Wind 25 MW Biomass 5 MW-0.008 2030 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 70 MW Biomass 5 MW -0.027 2031 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 54 MW Wind 35 MW Biomass 5 MW 1x600 MW New Supercritical Coal Power Plant-0.005 2032 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 45 MW -0.019 2033 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 54 MW Wind 70

140、 MW Biomass 5 MW 2x300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plants-Western Region 165 MW Combined Cycle Plant(KPS)163 MW Combined Cycle Plant (KPS-2)0.023 2034 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 70 MW -0.108 2035 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 54 MW Wind 70 MW Biomass 5 MW 1x600 MW New Supercritical Coa

141、l Power Plant 300MW West Coast Combined Cycle Power Plant 0.058 2036 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 55 MW Wind 95 MW 1x300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant-Western Region-0.057 2037 Mini Hydro 10 MW Solar 104 MW Wind 70 MW Biomass 5 MW-0.230 Total PV Cost up to year 2037,USD 14,568 million(LK

142、R 2,168.93 billion)E-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 GENERAL NOTES:To meet the demand from year 2018 until major power plants are implemented,70 MW,100MW and 150MW power plants are proposed with operation by FO.Grid integration of 1x300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant would be possi

143、ble once the Kerawalapitiya-Port 220kV cable is available in June 2018.Gas Turbine operation of the Combined Cycle Power Plant is expected to commence in 2019 and the combined cycle operation is expected in 2020.*Retirement of these plants would be evaluated based on the plant conditions.+PV Cost in

144、cludes the cost of projected ORE,USD 2004.6 million based on economic cost(excluding the future Dendro power development)and an additional spinning reserve capacity is kept to compensate for the intermittency of ORE.Sojitz Kelanitissa is scheduled to be retired in 2023 will be operated as a CEB Natu

145、ral Gas fired power plant from 2023 to 2033 with the conversion.West Coast and Kelanithissa Combined Cycle plant are converted to Natural Gas in 2020 with the development of LNG based infrastructure.Committed plants are shown in Italics.All plant capacities are given in gross values.Thalpitigala and

146、 Gin Ganga multipurpose hydro power plants proposed by Ministry of Irrigation are forced considering secured Cabinet approval for the implementation of the Projects.Seethawaka HPP and PSPP units are forced in 2022,2025,2026 and 2027 respectively.Moragahakanda HPP will be added in to the system by 20

147、17,2020 and 2022 with capacities of 10 MW,7.5 MW and 7.5 MW respectively.In order to ensure environmental conservation commitment total of 2717MW ORE capacity shall be developed during the planning horizon.This shall avoid the construction of 900MW coal power plants during the planning horizon which

148、 shall in return reduce the CO2 emissions by 17%.The additional present value cost of USD 153 Million is absorbed by the electricity sector in order to mitigate climate change impacts in accordance with the government policies.During the past years Reserve Margin violation situations were experience

149、d and the demand was met with difficulty.Therefore,the study emphasizes on maintaining the Reserve Margin levels within standards during the worst hydro condition throughout planning horizon.It is important to keep regular monitoring of short-term developments such as demand growth,generator availab

150、ility and hydrology.In the short term context up to year 2023,it is observed that there might be difficulty in operating the system resourcefully due to the foreseen delays in implementation of Uma Oya and Broadlands hydro power projects and the withholding of Coal power project in Sampoor.A severe

151、capacity shortage is identified for the period from 2018-2023.It is recommended to install 320 MW of Reciprocating engine power plants during this critical period,preferably in scattered locations throughout the island.The plants are expected to be kept as stand by power plants beyond the year 2023.

152、With regard to the energy,it is apparent that coal will be the major source of power during the study period with its share reaching 40%by 2025 and 50%by 2034.However,the contribution from renewable energy power plants shall also be considerable with a share of more than 40%by 2025 and 33%by 2034.LN

153、G operated plants shall initially serve the up to 25%of energy for Generation Expansion Plan 2017 E-9 year 2025,even though its energy share shall gradually decrease to 15%in 2034 due to the dispatching of Super Critical Coal Power Plants.Due to the introduction of a capacity mix of Supercritical co

154、al plants,LNG fired combined cycle plants and high integration of ORE,the rate of increase of CO2 emissions gradually decreases.The CO2,NOx and SOx is observed to decrease by 17%,10%and 6%respectively by adopting the Base Case Plan instead of adopting the least cost solution.The total CO2 emission f

155、rom the electricity sector even in year 2037 would be around 24 Million tons and both the total CO2 emission and the per capita CO2 emission would still remain low.The introduction of 3x200MW Pump Storage Power Plant(PSPP)is important with the development of coal power as well as with the prominent

156、peak and off-peak characteristics of the daily demand pattern.The implementation of 3 x 200 MW Pump Storage Power Plant will reduce the off-peak coal power operational issues and improve the efficiency of the coal power plants.Also,PSPP will enhance the ORE absorption capability to the system and re

157、duce the curtailment of ORE power generation.However for the no future coal power development case,which has an additional present value cost of USD 1039 Million compared to the Base case,the integration of PSPP is removed since the combined cycle plants have the possibility of load variation to abs

158、orb renewables.However curtailment of LNG operated combined cycle plants should be reviewed as it will reduce the plant factor of these power plants to undesirable levels for LNG contract agreements.Therefore in such circumstances,LNG procurements contracts should be negotiated to minimize the Take

159、or Pay risks.In the long term,it is important to recognise that coal plant development program will have favorable influence on the economy.Timely implementation of the coal plants in the pipe line is essential and delaying these plants any further will increase the price of electricity and also aff

160、ect the economic development of the country.Therefore it is crucial that proposed power plants are implemented in accordance with the Base Case Plan.The total investment required for implementing the Base Case Plan 2018-2037 in the next 20 years is approximately USD 14.568 Billion without considerin

161、g the projects for which funds have already been committed.It is imperative that the power plants are implemented as scheduled in Base Case 2018-2037.E-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Immediate Actions to be taken:(i)Commissioning of 122MW Uma Oya,35 MW Broadlands and 30.2 MW Moragolla by year 201

162、9,2020 and 2022 respectively.Expected annual energy generation of Uma Oya,Broadlands and Moragolla hydro power projects are 290GWh,126GWh and 97.6 GWh respectively.All plants will also serve as low cost peaking plants in the future.These plants will be the final least cost major hydro power plants a

163、vailable to the system and it is required to expedite their completion.(ii)Commissioning of 100MW Wind farm by year 2020.100MW wind farm is expected to generate approximately 320 GWh annually and wind farm will be one of the major energy contributors to the system from year 2020 onwards.(iii)320MW R

164、eciprocating Engine Power plants by 2018.The severe capacity shortage for the foreseen period till 2023 is to be met through the scattered development of Reciprocating engine power plants.Development of these power plants expeditiously is essential to avoid the imminent power shortage.These power pl

165、ants could be used as standby power plants once the major power plants are commissioned.(iv)3 x 35MW of Gas Turbines by year 2019/2020 In a total power failure situation,immediate restoration of Colombo power could be achieved using gas turbine power plants.Further,these plants will have the capabil

166、ity of operating in the sync-con mode to provide reactive power to improve voltage levels.Power plant would operate to provide peak power as well reduce the dependency on the availability hydro power for peak power generation.It is important to note that this Power plant will have very low plant fac

167、tor.(v)2x300MW Multi Fuel Combined Cycle Power Plants at Kerawalapitiya by 2019 and 2021 respectively and associated LNG import infrastructure by 2020.The first 300 MW Multi Fuel Combined Cycle Power Plant is much needed to cater the increasing demand in western region and it is anticipated to comme

168、nce open cycle operation in 2019.The combined cycle operation must be made available at least by 2020.The associated LNG importing infrastructure must also be developed on a fast track process with sufficient capacity to cater both the new power plant and also to cater the conversion of other oil fi

169、red combined cycle power plants in the western region.Furthermore another 300 MW Multi Fuel Combined Cycle Power Plant must be made available by 2021.Generation Expansion Plan 2017 E-11(vi)2 x300MW High Efficient Coal Power Plants must be available by year 2023 and 2024 respectively and therefore ne

170、cessary studies and site allocations must be commenced immediately.In order to evaluate the impact of risk events,which could lead to inadequacy of supply a separate contingency analysis was prepared for the next five years,i.e.from 2018 to 2022.The risks considered for evaluation were the variation

171、 in hydrology,variation in demand,delays in implementation of power plants and outage of major power plant.By considering the various combinations of these occurrences,it is suggested to consider of having an additional capacity of 150MW in the system to mitigate the risk of capacity and energy shor

172、tage.The Summary of Case Studies during the preparation of the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2018-2037 are given in Table E.3.Table E.3-Summary of Case Study Analyses No.Study Option Total Cost(mn US$)Remarks 1 Base Case 14,568 20%Energy from ORE considered from 2020 onwards.3x200MW PSPP intro

173、duced in 2025.2.Reference Case 14,415 Only existing ORE plants as at 1st January 2017 were included.3.High Demand Case 16,604 Demand forecast considering 1%increase of the annual growth rate in Base Load Forecast.Twenty year average demand growth is 6.0%.4.Low Demand Case 13,055 Demand forecast cons

174、idering 1%reduction from the annual growth rate in Base Load Forecast.Twenty year average demand growth is 4.0%.5.High Discount Case 10,915 Discount Rate taken as 15%6.Low Discount Case 24,065 Discount Rate taken as 3%7.Fuel Price Escalation Case 15,828 Fuel price escalation based on International E

175、nergy Agency forecast,WEO-2016 Fuel Diversification Cases 8.Future Coal Power Development Limited to 1800MW Case 14,895 No additional coal plants were permitted as candidate plants after developing 1800 MW of Coal plants.9.No Future Coal Power Development Case 15,608 No additional coal plants are pe

176、rmitted for development.10.Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Development Case 15,126 Energy mix including Nuclear Power Plant Development is considered after 2030.The identified Coal Power units of Base Case Plan beyond 2030,are replaced by two 600MW Nuclear power units in 2032 and 2035.Generation Expan

177、sion Plan-2017 Page 1-1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background The Electricity sector in Sri Lanka is governed by the Sri Lanka Electricity Act,No.20 of 2009 amended by Act No.31 of 2013 1.Ceylon Electricity Board(CEB),established by CEB Act No.17 of 1969(as amended),is under legal obligation to deve

178、lop and maintain an efficient,coordinated and economical system of Electricity supply in accordance with Licenses issued.CEB is responsible for most of the generation and distribution licenses while being sole licensee for transmission.CEB has been issued a generation license,a transmission license

179、and four distribution licenses.Lanka Electricity Company(LECO),a subsidiary of CEB is the other distribution licensee and there are several Independent Power Producers,whose production is also purchased by CEB.The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka(PUCSL)is the regulator of the sector and was

180、established by the PUCSL Act No.35 of 2002 and empowered by the Electricity Act.The Sri Lankan power system has a total installed capacity of approximately 4054MW by end of year 2016 with a total dispatchable capacity of 3538 MW.The maximum demand recorded in 2016 was 2453MW and total generation was

181、 14250GWh.Generation expansion planning is a part of the process of achieving the above objectives.In order to meet the increasing demand for electrical energy and to replace the thermal plants due for retirement,new generating stations need to be installed as and when necessary.The planning studies

182、 presented in this report are based on the Annual Report 2015 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2 and electricity sector data up to 2016.The information presented has been updated to December 2016 unless otherwise stated.The generating system has to be planned taking into consideration the electricity de

183、mand growth,generation technologies,environmental considerations and financial requirements.It is necessary to evaluate each type of candidate generating plant,both thermal and hydro and select the optimum plant mix schedule in the best interest of the country.1.2 The Economy In the last five years(

184、2011-2015),the real GDP growth in the Sri Lanka economy has varied from 8.4%in 2011 to 4.8%in 2015.In 2015,Sri Lanka has achieved a growth rate of 4.8%.Details of some demographic and economic indicators are given in Table 1.1.Page 1-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Table 1.1-Demographic and Economi

185、c Indicators of Sri Lanka Units 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mid-Year Population Millions 20.68 20.87 20.42 20.58 20.77 20.97 Population Growth Rate%1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 GDP Real Growth Rate%8 8.4 9.1 3.4 4.9 4.8 GDP/Capita(Market prices)US$2,744 3,129 3,351 3,610 3,853 3,924 Exchange Rate(Avg.)

186、LKR/US$113.06 110.57 127.60 129.11 130.56 135.94 GDP Constant 2010 Prices Mill LKR 6,413,668 6,952,720 7,588,517 7,846,202 8,228,986 8,622,825 Source:Annual Report 2015,Central Bank of Sri Lanka 1.2.1 Electricity and Economy Electricity demand growth rate in the past has most of the times revealed a

187、 direct correlation with the growth rate of the countrys economy.Figure 1.1 shows growth rates of electricity demand and GDP from 1994 to 2015.Figure 1.1-Growth Rates of GDP and Electricity Sales 1.2.2 Economic Projections The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has forecasted the latest GDP growth rates in r

188、eal terms for four consecutive years,which is published in Annual Report 2015 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2 Annual Report 2014 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka 3 as depicted in Table 1.2.-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.069200020004200520062007200820092001

189、320142015Growth Rate(%)YearGDPElectricityGeneration Expansion Plan-2017 Page 1-3 Table 1.2-Forecast of GDP Growth Rate in Real Terms Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 Forecast 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 2015 Forecast 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.0 Source:Annual Reports 2015&2014,Central Bank of Sri Lanka 1.3 Energy Sector 1

190、.3.1 Energy Supply Biomass or fuel wood,petroleum and hydro are the major primary energy supply sources,which cater the Sri Lanka energy demand with a per-capita consumption of about 0.5 tons of oil equivalent(TOE).Biomass or fuel wood,which is mainly a non-commercial fuel,at present provides approx

191、imately 40 percent of the countrys total energy requirement.Petroleum turns out to be the major source of commercial energy,which covers about 40 percent of the energy demand.Although electricity and petroleum products are the major forms of commercial energy,an increasing amount of biomass is also

192、commercially grown and traded.Hydropower which covers 9%of the total primary energy supply is the main indigenous source of primary commercial energy in Sri Lanka.Estimated potential of hydro resource is about 2000MW,of which more than half has already been harnessed.Further exploitation of hydro re

193、sources is becoming increasingly difficult owing to social and/or environmental impacts associated with large-scale development.Apart from these,there is a considerable potential for wind and solar power development.The first commercial wind power plants were established in 2010 and the total capaci

194、ty of wind power plants by end of 2016 is 127MW.100MW wind farm at Mannar Island is at the implementation stage.The steps have been initiated to harness the economical wind and solar potential in Sri Lanka in an optimal manner.The first commercial solar power plants were commissioned in year 2016 an

195、d the total capacity of commercial solar power plants by end of 2016 was 21MW and nearly 50MW of solar roof tops were also connected by end of 2016.Scattered developments of small scale solar power plants have been already initiated and feasibility studies were initiated to develop solar power plant

196、s in park concept.A small quantity of Peat has been located in the extent of marshy lands to the North of Colombo.However,the master plan study,1989 4 has indicated that the quality and extent of the reserve would not prove to be commercially viable for extraction and use as a source in power genera

197、tion.As at present,the total fossil fuel requirement of the country is imported either as crude oil or as refined products and used for transport,power generation,industry and other applications.Apart from this,initiatives have been launched in towards oil exploration with the prime intention of har

198、nessing potential petroleum resources in the Mannar Basin.Exploration license has been awarded to explore for oil and natural gas in the Mannar Basin off the north-west coast and drilling of the test wells has been carried out.At present,natural gas has been discovered in Mannar basin(off shore from

199、 Kalpitiya Pennisula)with a potential of 70 mscfd.Discoverable gas amount of this reserve is estimated approximately 300 bcf.This may even extend beyond the potential of 2TCF with daily extraction rates of 100 mscfd but further exploration should be carried out in order to verify these figures.Page

200、1-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 In 2015 the primary energy supply consisted of Biomass(4831 ktoe),Petroleum(4840 ktoe),Coal(1239 ktoe),Hydro(1177 ktoe)and other renewable sources(366 ktoe).The share of these in the gross primary energy supply from 2010 to 2015 is shown in Figure 1.2.Hydro electri

201、city is adjusted to reflect the energy input required in a thermal plant to produce the equivalent amount of electricity.Figure 1.2-Share of Gross Primary Energy Supply by Source 1.3.2 Energy Demand Figure 1.3-Gross Energy Consumption by Sectors including Non-Commercial Sources Sectorial energy cons

202、umption trend from 2010 to 2015 is shown in Figure 1.3.According to the above chart,household and commercial sector appears to be the largest sector in terms of energy consumption when all the traditional sources of energy are taken into account.Further,it shows a decreasing trend while industry sec

203、tor shows an increasing trend.41%43%46%37%39%38.9%46%44%43%43%42%39%11%9%6%13%8%9%1%3%4%4%8%10%2%2%2%3%3%3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2001320142015Share%YearPetroleumBiomassHydroCoalOther Renewable Energy24%24%25%25%26%31%27%28%29%29%29%29%49%48%47%46%45%41%0%20%40%60%80%100%20013201420

204、15Share%YearIndustryTransportHousehold,commercial and othersSource:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Source:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 1-5 The consumption for 2015 is made up of biomass(4793 ktoe),petroleum(4093 ktoe),coal(55 ktoe)and electricity(

205、1010 ktoe).Due to poor conversion efficiency of biomass,the composition of the net(or useful)energy consumption in the domestic sector could be different from the above.On the other hand,being the cheapest and most easily accessible source of energy,fuel wood still dominates the domestic sector cons

206、umption.Even though it is traded in urban and suburban areas fuel wood is still classified as a non-commercial form of energy.1.3.3 Emissions from Energy Sector The Total CO2 Emission levels of Sri Lanka are 16.7 Million tons,which is approximately only 0.05%of the total CO2 emissions generated in t

207、he World.The absolute emission levels as well as the per capita emission levels are much below compared to many other countries in the world as tabulated in Table 1.3.Table 1.3-Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Country kg CO2/2010 US$of GDP kg CO2/2010 US$of GDP Adjusted to PPP Tons o

208、f CO2 per Capita Total CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Sri Lanka 0.23 0.08 0.81 16.7 Pakistan 0.67 0.17 0.74 137.4 India 0.92 0.29 1.56 2019.7 Indonesia 0.46 0.17 1.72 436.5 Malaysia 0.70 0.31 7.37 220.5 Thailand 0.64 0.24 3.6 243.5 China 1.08 0.53 6.66 9134.9 Japan 0.21 0.27 9.35 1188.6 France 0.10 0.17

209、 4.32 285.7 Denmark 0.11 0.15 6.12 34.5 Germany 0.20 0.21 8.93 723.3 Switzerland 0.06 0.09 4.61 37.7 United Kingdom 0.16 0.17 6.31 407.8 USA 0.32 0.32 16.22 5176.2 Canada 0.31 0.37 15.61 554.8 Australia 0.26 0.36 15.81 373.8 South Africa 1.06 0.66 8.10 437.4 Qatar 0.48 0.27 35.73 77.6 Brazil 0.20 0.

210、16 2.31 476 World 0.44 0.32 4.47 32381 Even though electricity sector is the major contributor for emissions in the world,the transport sector contributes for majority of the emissions in Sri Lanka.The contribution to emissions from electricity sector of recent four years is tabulated in Table 1.4 a

211、nd sector wise comparison of CO2 emissions in 2014 is shown in Figure 1.4.Table 1.4-CO2 Emissions in the Recent Past Year World CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Sri Lanka CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions (Million tons)2011 31342.2 14.98 5.46 2012 31734.3 15.86 6.45 2013 32189.7

212、13.74 4.04 2014 32381.0 16.74 6.79 Page 1-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Figure 1.4-CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2014 1.4 Electricity Sector 1.4.1 Ease of Doing Business The“Ease of Doing Business”index ranks countries based on capability of starting businesses with an overall Distance to Fr

213、ontier(DTF)score.The score is determined by several factors which includes the subsection of“Getting Electricity”.The Getting Electricity index is based on the procedures,time and cost required for a business to obtain a permanent electricity connection for a newly constructed warehouse,while assess

214、ing efficiency of connection process,Reliability of supply and transparency of tariff index measures,reliability of power supply and the price of electricity.The Doing the business 2017 05 report published by World Bank Group,classified Sri Lanka at an overall Distance to Frontier(DTF)score of 58.79

215、 creating a Ease of Doing Business rank of 110th out of 190 countries,with the subsection of Getting Electricity DTF score of 71.12 which ranked 86th out of all 190 countries.(a)World (a)Sri Lanka Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2016 Edition)04-2014 Data 42%5%19%24%10%41%0%6%48%5%Gener

216、ation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 1-7 .4.2 Access to Electricity By the end of June,2016,approximately 98.7%of the total population had access to electricity from the national electricity grid.When the planned electrification schemes are implemented it is expected that this will increase further.Figure

217、 1.5 shows the percentage level of electrification district wise as at end of June 2016.Figure 1.5-Level of Electrification Page 1-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 1.4.3 Electricity Consumption Figure 1.6-Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2005-2016)The amount of energy consumed by each sector(i.e

218、.each tariff category)from 2005 to 2016 is shown in Figure 1.6 while Figure 1.7 depicts sectorial electricity consumption share in 2016.These Figures reveal that the industrial and commercial(general purpose,hotel,government)sectors consumption together is more than the consumption in the domestic s

219、ector.This is a pleasing situation for an economy with ambitious GDP growth projections.Figure 1.7-Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2016)The average per capita electricity consumption in 2015 and 2016 were 562kWh per person and 603 kWh per person respectively.Generally it has been rising steadil

220、y;however in the period 2007 2009 with the slowing down of the electricity growth,the per capita consumption has stagnated.A similar trend is observed during 2012 to 2013.Figure 1.8 illustrates the trend of per capita electricity consumption of Sri Lanka from 2004 to 2016.It is compared to other Asi

221、an countries per capita electricity consumption variation from 2004 to 2013 as depicted in Figure 1.9.285930563264024045636772768426902859289429372352734422652490262595

222、400060008000400020052006200720082009200016GWhYearDomesticReligiousIndustrialCommercialStreet LightingDomestic,37.8%Religious,0.7%Industrial,32.6%Commercial,27.9%Street Lighting,1.0%Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 1-9 1.4.4 Capacity and Demand Sri Lanka

223、 electricity requirement was growing at an average annual rate of around 5%-6%during the past 20 years,and this trend is expected to continue in the foreseeable future.The total installed capacity peak demand over the last twenty years are given in the Table 1.5 and graphically shown in Figure 1.10.

224、The development of other renewables through the past years is illustrated in Figure 1.11 Table 1.5-Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Year Installed Capacity Capacity Growth Peak Demand Peak Demand Growth MW(%)MW(%)1996 1409 0%968-1%1997 1585 12%1037 7%1998 1636 3%1137 10%1999 1682 3%1291 14%2000 17

225、64 5%1404 9%2001 1874 6%1445 3%2002 1893 1%1422-2%2003 2180 15%1516 7%2004 2280 5%1563 3%2005 2411 6%1748 12%2006 2434 1%1893 8%2007 2444 0.4%1842-2.7%2008 2645 8%1922 4%2009 2684 1%1868-3%2010 2818 5%1955 5%200250300350400450500550600650200420052006200720082009200016kWh/Person

226、Figure 1.8 Sri Lanka Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2004-2016)Figure 1.9 Asian Countries Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2004-2013)0200400600800020042005200620072008200920013kWh/personVietnamIndiaPakistanSri LankaBangladeshPage 1-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Year In

227、stalled Capacity Capacity Growth Peak Demand Peak Demand Growth MW(%)MW(%)2012 3312 5%2146-1%2013 3355 1%2164 1%2014 3932 17%2152-1%2015 3847-2%2283 6%2016 4054 6%2453 7%Last 5 year avg.growth 5.25%3.71%Last 10 year avg.growth 5.82%3.37%Last 20 year avg.growth 5.08%4.70%Figure 1.10 Total Installed C

228、apacity and Peak Demand Figure 1.11 Other Renewable Energy Capacity Development 0400800024002800320036004000440080420052006200720082009200016Inst.Capacity&Peak Demand(MW)YearTotal Installed CapacityPeak Demand39738812122273

229、20367442455504005006002003200420052006200720082009200016Capacity(MW)YearGeneration Expansion Plan-2017 Page 1-11 1.4.5 Generation In early stages the electricity demand of the country was mainly supplied by hydro generation and the contribution from thermal generatio

230、n was minimal.With the time,thermal generation has become prominent.At present,thermal generation share is much higher than that of hydro.Further the other renewable energy generation from mini hydro,wind,solar,dendro etc is also increasing.Electricity Generation during the last twenty years is summ

231、arized in Table 1.6 and graphically shown in Figure 1.12.Table 1.6-Electricity Generation 1992-2016 Year Hydro Generation Other Renewable Thermal Generation Self-Generation Total GWh%GWh%GWh%GWh%GWh 1992 2900 81.9 640 18.1 0 0.0 3540 1993 3796 95.4 183 4.6 0 0.0 3979 1994 4089 93.2 275 6.3 22 0.5 43

232、86 1995 4514 94.0 269 5.6 17 0.4 4800 1996 3249 71.8 1126 24.9 152 3.4 4527 1997 3443 66.9 1463 28.4 235 4.6 5146 1998 3915 68.9 1654 29.1 114 2.0 5683 1999 4175 67.6 1901 30.8 97 1.6 6173 2000 3154 46.1 46.7 0.7 3486 51.0 158 2.3 6841 2001 3045 46.0 68.3 1.0 3407 51.4 105 1.6 6625 2002 2589 37.3 10

233、7.1 1.5 4114 59.2 136 2.0 6946 2003 3190 41.9 123.4 1.6 4298 56.5 0 0.0 7612 2004 2755 33.8 208.7 2.6 5080 62.3 115 1.4 8159 2005 3173 36.2 282.0 3.2 5314 60.6 0 0.0 8769 2006 4290 45.7 348.0 3.7 4751 50.6 0 0.0 9385 2007 3603 36.7 347.0 3.5 5864 59.8 0 0.0 9811 2008 3700 37.4 438.0 4.4 5763 58.3 0

234、0.0 9893 2009 3356 34.1 551.0 5.6 5975 60.6 0 0.0 9856 2010 4988 46.9 732.0 6.9 4994 47.0 0 0.0 10628 2011 4018 34.9 725.0 6.3 6785 58.9 2.9 0.0 11528 2012 2727 23.1 736.0 6.2 8339 70.7 1.4 0.0 11801 2013 5990 50.1 1178.0 9.8 4773 39.9 0 0.0 11962 2014 3632 29.2 1217.0 9.8 7556 60.8 0 0.0 12418 2015

235、 4904 37.5 1467.0 11.2 6718 51.3 0 0.0 13089 2016 3499 24.6 1160.2 8.1 9591 67.3 0 0.0 14248 Last 5 year av.Growth 6.43%3.56%4.83%Last 10 year av.Growth-0.33%5.62%4.23%Page 1-12 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Figure 1.12-Hydro Thermal Share in the Recent Past Sri Lankan Power System has operated mai

236、ntaining 40%-60%share of renewable energy throughout the recent years.This trend will be continued in the future also with the optimum amount of renewable energy integration to the system.Total renewable energy share over the past ten years are shown in Figure 1.13.Figure 1.13 Renewable Share in the

237、 Recent Past 0200040006000800040009702000420052006200720082009200016Generation GWhYearSelf GenerationOther RenewableThermal GenerationHydro Generation0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%00400050006000700080002006200720082009201020112012

238、20016PercentageEnergy(Gwh)YearMajor HydroOther RETotal RE PercentageGeneration Expansion Plan-2017 Page 1-13 1.5 Planning Process CEB is under a statutory duty to develop and maintain an efficient,co-coordinated and economical system of electricity supply for the whole of Sri Lanka.In ord

239、er to fulfill the above duty,CEB revises the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan(LTGEP)once in two years complying with Section 43 of SLSEA ACT,No 31 of 2013.Intensive studies are conducted by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the CEB in order to prepare this plan.A coordinating com

240、mittee representing the relevant Branches of CEB meets during the study period to review the study inputs and the findings.Operating information on the existing generating plants is obtained from records maintained in the Generation Planning Branch and the individual power stations.Certain operation

241、al information and system limitations are obtained from the System Control Centre and the Generation Division of CEB.Details and costs of candidate thermal and hydro plants which are to be considered for system addition are obtained from various pre-feasibility and feasibility studies commissioned b

242、y CEB in the recent past.These data are used on computer models and a series of simulations are conducted to derive the feasible optimum generation expansion sequence.1.6 Objectives The objectives of the generation planning studies conducted by CEB are,(a)To investigate the feasibility of new genera

243、ting plants for addition to the system in terms of plant and system characteristics.(b)To specifically investigate the future operations of the hydro-thermal system in order to determine the most economical operating policy for reservoirs,hydro and thermal plants.(c)To conduct system simulation stud

244、ies to determine the economically optimum mix of generating plants to meet the forecast demand and the acceptable reliability levels in the 20 year period ahead.(d)To investigate the robustness of the economically optimum plan by analyzing its sensitivity to changes in the key input parameters.1.7 O

245、rganization of the Report The next Chapter,Chapter 2 of the report,presents the existing and committed generation system of Sri Lanka.The past and forecast electricity demand with the forecasting methodology is explained in Chapter 3.Thermal and Renewable Generation options for the future system exp

246、ansions are discussed in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively.Chapter 6 explains the Generation expansion planning guidelines,methodology and the parameters while the expansion planning results are given in Chapter 7.Chapter 8 describes required implementation schedule and financing for the generation proj

247、ects.Environmental implications of the expansion plan are discussed in Chapter 9 and finally,Chapter 10 provides a comparison of this year plan with the previous plan.Chapter 11 will conclude on the contingency analysis on the provided plan.Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 2-1 CHAPTER 2 THE EXIST

248、ING AND COMMITTED GENERATING SYSTEM The existing generating system in the country is mainly owned by CEB with a considerable share owned by the private sector.Until 1996 the total electricity system was owned by CEB.Since 1996,private sector has also participated in power generation.The existing gen

249、erating system in the country has approximately 4054 MW of installed capacity by end of 2016 including non-dispatchable plants of capacity 516 MW owned by private sector developers.The majority of dispatchable capacity is owned by CEB(i.e.about 82%of the total dispatchable capacity),which includes 1

250、379.25MW of hydro and 1506.7 MW of thermal generation capacity.Balance dispatchable capacity,which is totally thermal plants,is owned by Independent Power Producers(IPPs).2.1 Hydro and Other Renewable Power Generation Hydropower is the main renewable source of generation in the Sri Lanka power syste

251、m and it is mainly owned by CEB.However,other renewable sources such as mini hydro,wind,solar,dendro,and biomass are also connected to the system,which are owned by the private sector developers.2.1.1 CEB Owned Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants Most of the comparatively large scale hydro resour

252、ces in Sri Lanka have been developed by the CEB.At present,hydro projects having capacities below 10MW(termed mini hydro),are allowed to be developed by private sector as run-of river plants and larger hydro plants are to be developed by the CEB.Since these run-of river type mini hydro plants are no

253、n-dispatchable,they are modeled differently from CEB owned hydro plants in the generation expansion planning simulations.The operation and maintenance cost of these CEB hydro power plants was taken as 12.48 US$/kW per annum.(a)Existing System The existing CEB generating system has a large share base

254、d on hydropower(i.e.1379.25MW hydro out of 2885.95MW of total CEB installed capacity).Approximately 48%of the total existing CEB system capacity is installed in 17 hydro power stations and only 24.55%of the total energy demand was met by the large hydro plants compared to 37.4%in 2015.Details of the

255、 existing and committed hydro system are given in Table 2.1 and the geographical locations of the Power Stations are shown in the Figure 2.1.The major hydropower schemes already developed are associated with Kelani and Mahaweli river basins.Five hydro power stations with a total installed capacity o

256、f 354.8MW(26%of the total hydropower capacity)have been built in two cascaded systems associated with the two main tributaries of Kelani River,Kehelgamu Oya and Maskeliya Oya(Laxapana Complex).The five stations in this complex are generally not required to operate for irrigation or other water requi

257、rements;hence they are primarily designed to meet the power requirements of the country.Castlereigh and Moussakelle are the major storage reservoirs in the Laxapana hydropower complex located at main tributaries Kehelgamu Oya and Maskeliya Oya respectively.Castlereigh reservoir with storage of 60 MC

258、M feeds the Wimalasurendra Power Station of capacity 2 x 25MW at Norton-bridge,while Canyon 2 x 30MW is fed from the Moussakelle reservoir of storage 115 MCM.Page 2-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Table 2.1-Existing and Committed Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants Plant Name Units x Capacity Ca

259、pacity(MW)Expected Annual Avg.Energy(GWh)Active Storage(MCM)Rated Head(m)Year of Commissioning Canyon 2 x 30 60 160 108.8(Moussakelle)192.7 1983-Unit 1 1989-Unit 2 Wimalasurendra 2 x 25 50 112 53.58(Castlereigh)225.6 1965 Old Laxapana 3x 9.6+2x12.5 53.5 286 0.245(Norton)472.4 1950 1958 New Laxapana

260、2 x 58 116 552 0.629(Canyon)541 Unit 1 1974 Unit 2 1974 Polpitiya 2 x 37.5 75 453 0.113(Laxapana)259.1 1969 Laxapana Total 354.8 1563 Upper Kotmale 2 x 75 150 409 0.8 473.1 Unit 1-2012 Unit 2-2012 Victoria 3 x 70 210 865 688 190 Unit 1-1985 Unit 2-1984 Unit 3-1986 Kotmale 3 x 67 201 498 154 201.5 Un

261、it 1-1985 Unit 2&3 88 Randenigala 2 x 61 122 454 558 77.8 1986 Ukuwela 2 x 18.5 37 154 2.1 75 Unit 1&2 76 Bowatenna 1 x 40 40 48 36.53 52 1981 Rantambe 2 x 24.5 49 239 4.4 32.7 1990 Mahaweli Total 809 2667 Samanalawewa 2 x 60 120 344 218 320 1992 Kukule 2 x 37.5 75 300 1.67 186.4 2003 Small hydro 20

262、.45 Samanala Total 215.45 644 Existing Total 1379.25*4874 Committed Broadlands 2x17.5 35 126 0.198 56.9 2020 Moragolla 2x15.1 30.2 97.6 1.98 69 2022 Mannar Wind Park 100 320 2020 Multi-Purpose Projects Uma Oya 2x61 122 290 0.7 722 2019 Gin Ganga 2x10 20 66 0.2-2022 Thalpitigala 2x7.5 15 51.3 11.42 9

263、3 2020 Moragahakanda(2x5)+7.5+7.5 25 114.5 430 38 34 34 Unit 1-2017 Unit 2-2020 Unit 3-2022 Total 347.2 1065.4*Note:*According to feasibility studies.*3MW wind project at Hambantota not included.Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 2-3 Figure 2.1-Location of Existing,Committed and Candidate Power Sta

264、tions The development of the major hydro-power resources under the Mahaweli project added seven hydro power stations(Ukuwela,Bowatenna,Kotmale,Upper Kotmale,Victoria,Randenigala and Rantambe)to the national grid with a total installed capacity of 809MW(58.2%of the total hydropower capacity).Three ma

265、jor reservoirs,Kotmale,Victoria and Randenigala,which were built under the accelerated Mahaweli development program,feed the power stations installed with these reservoirs.The latest power station in this system is 150MW Upper Kotmale hydro power plant.No.Power Plant Capacity MW Hydro Power Plants(E

266、xisting)1 Canyon 60 2 Wimalasurendra 50 3 New Laxapana 116 4 Old Laxapana 53.5 5 Polpitiya 75 6 Kotmale 201 7 Victoria 210 8 Randenigala 122 9 Rantambe 49 10 Ukuwela 37 11 Bowatenna 40 12 Samanalawewa 120 13 Udawalawe 6 14 Inginiyagala 11.25 15 Nilambe 3.2 16 Kukule 75 17 Upper Kotmale 150 Hydro Pow

267、er Plants(Committed)18 Broadlands 35 19 Uma Oya 122 20 Moragolla 30.2 Hydro Power Plants(Candidate)21 Gin Ganga 20 22 Thalpitigala 15 23 Moragahakanda 25 24 Seethawaka 20 Other Renewable(Committed)25 Mannar Wind Park 100 Thermal Power Plants A Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant 900 B Kelanithissa PP,Sojitz

268、PP 523 C Sapugaskanda PP,Asia Power 211 D Uthuru Janani 27 E CEB Barge Mounted Plant 60 F West Coast PP 300 G Northern Power 38 H ACE Power Embilipitiya 100 H 25 Page 2-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Polgolla-diversion weir(across Mahaweli Ganga),downstream of Kotmale and upstream of Victoria,dive

269、rts Mahaweli waters to irrigation systems via Ukuwela power station(37MW).After generating electricity at Ukuwela power station the water is discharged to Sudu Ganga,upstream of Amban Ganga,which carries water to Bowatenna reservoir.It then feeds both Bowatenna power station(40MW)and mainly Mahaweli

270、 System-H by means of separate waterways.Water discharged through Bowatenna power station goes to Elahera Ela and is available for diversion to Mahaweli systems D and G.The schematic diagrams of the hydro reservoir networks are shown in Annex 2.1.Unlike the Laxapana cascade,the Mahaweli system is op

271、erated as a multi-purpose system.Hence power generation from the associated power stations is governed by the down-stream irrigation requirements as well.These requirements being highly seasonal which in turn affects the operation of these power stations during certain periods of the year.Samanalawe

272、wa hydro power plant of capacity 120MW was commissioned in 1992.Samanalawewa reservoir,which is on Walawe River and with storage of 278MCM,feeds this power plant.Kukule power project which was commissioned in 2003,is a run-of river type plant located on Kukule Ganga,a tributary of Kalu Ganga.Kukule

273、power plant is 70MW in capacity and which provides an average of 300GWh of energy per year under average hydro conditions.The contribution of the three small hydro plants(Inginiyagala 11.25MW,UdaWalawe-6MW and Nilambe 3.2MW)to the National Grid is comparatively small(20.45MW)and is dependent on irri

274、gation water releases from the respective reservoirs.Due to recent rehabilitation work carried out at New Laxapana,Old Laxapana,Wimalasurendra,and Polpitiya Power Stations,the efficiency of above plants has been increased which has resulted in the increase of capacity.In addition to the above hydro

275、plants,CEB has a 3MW wind plant at Hambantota.This project was implemented as a pilot project in order to see the feasibility of wind development in Sri Lanka.(b)Committed Plants The 35MW Broadlands hydropower project located near Kithulagala on the Maskeliyaoya was considered as a committed plant.T

276、he dam site of the project is to be located near Polpitiya power house and in addition to the main dam,there will be a diversion weir across Kehelgamuoya.The project has a 0.216 MCM storage and it is expected to generate 126GWh energy per annum.It will be added to the system in 2020.122MW Uma Oya mu

277、ltipurpose hydro power project was considered as a committed plant.Under Uma Oya multipurpose hydro power project,two small reservoirs will be built close to Welimada where the water from these two reservoirs will be diverted through a tunnel to the underground power house located at Randeniya near

278、Wellawaya.It is expected to generate 231GWh of annual energy and will be added to the system in 2019.This project is implemented by the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment.Moragolla Hydro Power project with a reservoir of 4.66MCM is located on the Mahaweli River close to Ulapane village

279、 in Kandy District of Central Province.This committed power plant is having a capacity of 30.2MW and 97.6 GWh of mean annual energy.This plant will be added to the system in 2022.Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 2-5 Mannar Wind Park is the first semi dispatchable wind park developed in Sri Lanka.

280、During the 1st stage 100 MW of wind power will be developed by CEB in the southern coast of the Mannar Island which would contribute 320 GWh of mean annual energy.Gin Ganga(20MW),Thalpitigala(15MW)and Moragahakanda(25MW)are three Irrigation Projects with a power generation component.These projects w

281、ill add another 233GWh to the system.Gin Ganga(20MW)and Thalpitigala(15MW)will be developed by Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resource Management.Moragahakanda(25MW)will be developed by Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment 2.1.2 Other Renewable Power Plants Owned by IPPs Government of

282、Sri Lanka has taken a policy decision to develop hydropower plants below 10MW capacities through private sector participation.Many small hydro plants and other renewable power plants have been connected to the system since 1996.Total capacity of these plants is approximately 543.5MW as at 28th Febru

283、ary 2017.These plants are mainly connected to 33kV distribution lines.CEB has signed standard power purchase agreements for another 261MW of small power producers.The existing Capacity contributions from other renewables as of are tabulated in Table 2.2.Table 2.2 Existing Development of ORE In this

284、study,a capacity and energy contributions from these mini hydro and other non-conventional renewable energy plants were considered in the base case as committed and modeled accordingly.The figures were projected based on expected development according to current project pipeline records.The projecte

285、d committed development used in this study is given and further explained in chapter 5.2.1.3 Capability of Existing Hydropower Plants The Sri Lankan power system is still highly dependent on hydropower.Hence,it is necessary to assess the energy generating potential of the hydropower system to a high

286、 degree of accuracy.However,this assessment is difficult owing to the multipurpose nature of some reservoirs,which have to satisfy the downstream irrigation requirements as well.Further,the climatic conditions of Sri Lanka is Project Type Number of Projects Capacity(MW)Mini Hydro Power 178 349.64 Wi

287、nd Power 15 123.45 Biomass Agricultural&Industrial Waste 4 13.08 Biomass Dendro Power 5 11.02 Solar Power 7 41.36 Page 2-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%Energy(GWh)DurationAnnual TotalAverage4050 GWhcharacterized by the monsoons,causing

288、inflows to the reservoirs as well as the irrigation demands to fluctuate over the year exhibiting a strong seasonal pattern.Figure 2.2-Potential of Hydropower System from Past 35 years Hydrological Data The annual energy variation of the existing hydro system,using the inflow data from 1979 to 2014

289、and based on SDDP computer simulation is shown in Figure 2.2.This shows that the capability of the major hydro system(Mahaweli,Laxapana and Samanala)could vary as much as from 3238 GWh to 4994 GWh.For 2018 expansion studies the worst conditions in dry and very dry scenarios were considered in calcul

290、ating the average and it resulted in a reduction in the weighted average figure.The corresponding summary of the hydro potential is given in Table 2.3 with probabilities of 10%(very wet),20%(wet),50%(medium),15%(dry)and 5%(very dry)hydro conditions.Table 2.3 Expected Monthly Hydro Power and Energy V

291、ariation of the Existing Hydro Plants for the Selected Hydro Conditions Month Very Wet Wet Medium Dry Very Dry Average Energy(GWh)Power(MW)Energy(GWh)Power(MW)Energy(GWh)Power(MW)Energy(GWh)Power(MW)Energy(GWh)Power(MW)Energy(GWh)Power(MW)Jan 300.1 890.6 299.1 897.1 293.6 884.5 293.2 880.4 287.2 802

292、.5 295.0 882.9 Feb 241.0 840.3 228.9 848.8 205.0 809.1 178.7 811.3 166.7 775.4 207.5 818.8 Mar 261.4 845.5 233.8 830.3 215.3 794.7 180.5 772.6 157.8 696.9 215.5 798.7 Apr 268.5 802.6 246.0 788.4 225.7 751.0 199.9 691.2 198.9 641.1 228.8 749.2 May 418.4 858.8 399.0 856.8 333.6 835.3 280.0 808.8 299.9

293、 801.3 345.4 836.3 Jun 464.2 978.7 450.9 986.5 378.1 981.8 322.9 943.7 333.9 902.9 390.8 972.8 Jul 423.3 985.8 414.8 976.3 348.4 899.7 316.5 880.3 291.3 849.7 361.6 918.2 Aug 409.0 957.6 390.4 948.3 325.7 894.6 270.0 858.0 255.7 841.4 335.1 903.5 Sep 471.3 992.1 410.7 979.4 344.4 938.4 277.8 906.4 2

294、56.8 815.6 356.0 941.0 Oct 588.9 1122.3 514.9 1117.7 463.8 1075.6 388.0 1033.1 344.7 940.8 469.2 1075.6 Nov 457.0 1073.0 377.6 1053.1 342.7 1022.8 298.6 993.9 262.3 911.4 350.5 1024.0 Dec 531.1 1198.1 517.6 1192.3 489.8 1178.9 483.1 1168.7 408.3 1096.5 494.4 1177.8 Total 4834.4484 3966 3489 3264 405

295、0 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 2-7 Figure 2.3-Monthly Average Hydro Energy and Capacity Variation 2.2 Thermal Generation 2.2.1 CEB Thermal Plants(a)Existing Majority of the present thermal power generating capacity in the country is owned by CEB with a total capacity of 1506.7 MW.It is made u

296、p of name plate capacities of Lakvijaya Coal power plant of 900MW,Kelanitissa Gas Turbines of 195MW,Kelanitissa Combined Cycle plant of 165MW,Sapugaskanda Diesel power plants of 160MW,Uthuru Janani diesel power plant of 26.7 MW and Barge Mounted Plant of 60MW.The Lakvijaya Coal plant 900MW funded by

297、 EXIM Bank China commissioned in 2011(Phase I)and 2014(Phase II)was the latest thermal power plant addition to the CEB system.(b)Plant Retirements For planning purposes,it was considered that 4x17MW Gas Turbines at Kelanitissa and 4x18MW diesel plants at Sapugaskanda are due for retirement in 2021 a

298、nd 2023 respectively.113MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbine was considered for retirement in 2023.A 4x9MW Sapugaskanda Diesel extension are due to be retired in 2024 and the other 4x9MW Sapugaskanda Diesel extension are to be retired in 2025.Capacity and energy details of the existing and committed thermal p

299、lants are shown in Table 2.4.Cost and technical details of the existing thermal generation plants as input to the 2016 Expansion Planning Studies is summarized in Table 2.5.0200400600800000500600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecCapacity(MW)Energy(GWh)MonthEnergy(GWh)Capacity

300、(MW)Page 2-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2017(c)Committed Table 2.4-Details of Existing and Committed Thermal Plants Plant Name No of Units x Name Plate Capacity(MW)No of Units x Capacity used for Studies(MW)Annual Max.Energy(GWh)Commissioning Puttalam Coal Power Plant Lakvijaya CPP 3 x 300 3 x 275 -2

301、011&2014 Puttalam Coal Total 900 825 -Kelanitissa Power Station Gas turbine(Old)4 x 20 4 x 16.3 417 Dec 81,Mar 82,Apr 82,Gas turbine(New)1 x 115 1 x 113 707 Aug 97 Combined Cycle(JBIC)1 x 165 1 x 161 1290 Aug 2002 Kelanitissa Total 360 339.2 2414 Sapugaskanda Power Station Diesel 4 x 20 4 x 17.4 472

302、 May 84,May 84,Sep 84,Oct 84 Diesel(Ext.)8 x 10 8 x 8.7 504 4 Units Sept 97 4 Units Oct 99 Sapugaskanda Total 160 139.2 976 Other Thermal Power Plants UthuruJanani 3 x 8.9 3 x 8.67 Jan 2013 Barge Mounted Plant 4 x 16 4 x 15 Acquired in 2015 Existing Total Thermal 1510.7 1389.4 3390 Committed Kelanit

303、issa Gas 3 x 35 105 2019/2020 Committed Total Thermal 105 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 2-9 Table 2.5-Characteristics of Existing and Committed CEB Owned Thermal Plants Note:All costs are in January 2017 US$border prices.Fuel prices are based on CPC&Lanka Coal Company data based on market pric

304、e of average fuel prices of 2016.Heat rates and calorific values are given in HHV.Kelanitissa Sapugaskanda Lakvijaya Coal Other Name of Plant Units GT(Old)GT(New)Comb.Cycle(JBIC)Diesel(Station A)Diesel(Ext.)(Station B)Coal(Phase I II)Uthuru Janani Barge Mounted Plant Basic Data Engine Type GE FRAME

305、5 FIAT(TG 50 D5)VEGA 109E ALSTHOM PIELSTIC PC-42 MAN B&W L58/64-Wartsila 20V32 Mitsui MAN B&W 12K50MC-S Fuel Type Auto Diesel Auto Diesel Naphtha Heavy fuel oil Heavy fuel oil Coal Fuel Oil Fuel Oil Inputs for studies Number of sets 4 1 1 4 8 3 3 4 Unit Capacity MW 16.3 113 161 17.4 8.7 275 8.67 15

306、Minimum operating level MW 16.3 79 100 17.4 8.7 200 8.67 15 Calorific Value of the fuel kCal/kg 10500 10500 10650 10300 10300 6300 10300 10300 Heat Rate at Min.Load kCal/kWh 4022 3085 2168 2246 2059 I-2750 II-2597 2136 2210 Incremental Heat Rate kCal/kWh 0 2337 1359 0 0 I-1792 II-1793 0 0 Heat Rate

307、at Full Load kCal/kWh 4022 2860 1850 2246 2059 I-2489 II-2378 2136 2210 Fuel Cost USCts/GCal 7235 7235 6864 5550 5550 1205 5550 5550 Full Load Efficiency%21.4 30.1 46.5 38.3 41.8 I-35 II-36 40.3 38.9 Forced Outage Rate%29 25.4 8.4 11.1 7.7 I 14 II-U2 7.7 U3-11.8 22.9 4.9 Scheduled Maintenance Days/Y

308、ear 35 52 30 50 47 52 38 58 Fixed O&M Cost$/kWmonth 3.35 0.2 2.06 9.35 8.56 1.7 1.93 5.4 Variable O&M Cost$/MWh 0.72 5.56 3.01 6.34 1.88 3.15 9.21 11.03 Page 2-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 2.2.2 Independent Power Producers(IPPs)(a)Existing Apart from the thermal generating capacity owned by CEB

309、,Independent Power Producers have commissioned diesel power plants and combined cycle power plants given in Table 2.6.Table 2.6-Details of Existing and Committed IPP Plants Plant Name Name Plate Cap.(MW)Cap.used for Studies Min.Guarenteed Ann.Energy(GWh)Commissioning Contract Period.(Yrs.)Independen

310、t Power Producers Asia Power Ltd Sojitz Kelanitissa(Pvt.)Ltd ACE Power Embilipitiya Ltd+West Coast(pvt)Ltd.Northern Power 51 163 100 300 38 50.8 163 99.5 270 30 330-697-1998 June GT-March 2003 ST-October 2003 2005 April 2010 May 2009 December 20 20 10 25 10 Existing Total IPP 652 613.3 Committed-Fur

311、nace Oil based+100+70 100+70 2018 LNG Combined Cycle 300 287 2019 Open cycle 2020 Combined cycle Committed Total IPP 470 457-Note +The contract of ACE Power Embilipitiya Power Plant which expired was extended on short term basis.+The Furnace Oil Based Power Plant is expected to be operated as IPP.Ge

312、neration Expansion Plan-2017 Page 3-1 CHAPTER 3 ELECTRICITY DEMAND:PAST AND THE FORECAST 3.1 Past Demand Demand for electricity in the country during the last fifteen years has been growing at an average rate of about 6.0%per annum while peak demand has been growing at a rate of 4.0%per annum as sho

313、wn in Table 3.1.However the peak demand has grown at a rate of 3.4%during the last 5 years and energy demand has been growing at a rate of 5.1%per annum.In 2016,the total electricity generated to meet the demand amounted to 14,250GWh,which had been only 9,814GWh ten years ago.The recorded maximum de

314、mand within the year 2016 was 2,453MW which was 2,283MW in year 2015 and 1,842MW ten years ago.Table 3.1-Electricity Demand in Sri Lanka,2002 2016 Year Demand Avg.Growth Total energy Losses+Generation Avg.Growth Load Factor Peak Avg.Growth (GWh)(%)(%)(GWh)(%)(%)(MW)(%)2002 5638*5.6 19.2 6810 4.4 54.

315、7 1422-1.6 2003 6209 10.1 18.4 7612 11.8 57.3 1516 6.6 2004 6782*9.2 17.1 8043 5.7 58.7 1563 3.1 2005 7255 7.0 17.3 8769 9.0 57.3 1748 11.8 2006 7832 8.0 16.6 9389 7.1 56.6 1893 8.3 2007 8276 5.7 15.7 9814 4.5 60.8 1842-2.7 2008 8417 1.7 15.0 9901 0.9 58.6 1922 4.3 2009 8441 0.3 14.6 9882-0.2 60.4 1

316、868-2.8 2010 9268 9.8 13.5 10714 8.4 62.6 1955 4.7 2011 10026*8.2 13.1 11528 7.6 60.8 2163 10.6 2012 10475*4.5 11.2 11801 2.4 62.8 2146-0.8 2013 10624 1.4 11.2 11962 1.4 63.1 2164 0.8 2014 11063 4.1 10.9 12418 3.8 65.9 2152-0.6 2015 11786 6.5 10.4 13154 5.9 65.8*2283 6.1 2016 12785 8.5 10.3 14250 8.

317、3 66.3*2453 7.4 Last 5 year 5.1%4.8%3.4%Last 10 year 5.0%4.2%3.2%Last 15 year 6.0%5.4%4.0%*Include Self-Generation*Load Factor includes Other RE+Includes generation auxiliary consumption Page 3-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Figure 3.1 shows a considerable decrease in percentage of system losses d

318、uring 2000-2016.The major contribution towards this decrement is the decrease in Transmission&Distribution Losses.Figure 3.2 shows the System Load Factor which calculated including Other RE(Mini hydro,Wind&Solar)and Self-Generation.Overall improvement in the load factor can be observed as shown in F

319、igure 3.2 and in 2016 it was calculated as 66.3%.Figure 3.1-Past System Loss Figure 3.2 Past Trend in the Load Factor Figure 3.3 shows the countrys daily load curve recorded on the day of annual peak for previous eight years.From the Figure 3.3,it could be observed that the shape of the load curve r

320、emain as the same.However,significant growth in the day peak could be seen during 2015&2016 compared to other years.The system peak demand occurred for short period from about 18.30 to 22.00 hours daily.The recorded maximum system peak is 2,283MW in year 2015,while in year 2016 the peak is 2,453MW.F

321、igure 3.3-Change in Daily Load Curve Over the Years 8.010.012.014.016.018.020.022.00200220042006200820016Net Losses(%)YearPast LossNet LossGross Loss5355575962003200420052006200720082009200016Load Factor(%)YearSystem Load Factor%05000

322、250030000246802224Demand(MW)Time(GMT+06:00)2009200016Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Page 3-3 Figure 3.4 shows the percentage consumption shares among different consumer categories from 1977 to 2016.In 2016,share of domestic consumption in the total demand was 38%whil

323、e that of industrial and commercial sectors were 33%and 28%respectively.Religious purpose consumers and street lighting,which is referred as the other category,together accounted only for 2%.Similarly in 2006(10 years ago),share of domestic,industrial,commercial and religious purpose&street lighting

324、 consumptions in the total demand,were 39%,37%,22%and 2%respectively.Figure 3.4-Consumption Share among Different Consumer Categories 3.2 Government Policies and Future Major Developments 3.2.1 Government Policies The Electricity Demand Forecast 2018-2042 prepared complying with the following govern

325、ment policies and guidelines.National Energy Policy and Strategies of Sri Lanka in 2008 General Policy Guidelines on the Electricity Industry for the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka in 2009 3.2.2 Future Major Developments The Government has proposed and planning for large scale developments

326、 which will lead to increase in demand in the future.The major developments plans are identified by Western Region Megapolis Plan and Hambantota Port Development Plan in Southern Region.The Western Region Megapolis Plan identifies following major clusters for the development.Transport Multi Model Tr

327、ansport Hub(Pettah)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%321020132016Precentage Share(%)YearOtherCommercialIndustrialDomesticPage 3-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2017 Colombo Central Business District Housing Development Horana&Mirigama Industrial Township SME In

328、dustry Colombo Port City Science and Technology City Tourism The cumulative electricity demand requirements due to the above developments are indicatively estimated as 390MW by 2020,975MW by 2025 and 1949MW by 2030.The Colombo Port City Development Project is the significant project under the Wester

329、n Region Megapolis Plan and indicative cumulative electricity demand requirement estimated as 30MW by 2020,177MW by 2025,313MW by 2030 and 393MW by 2040.Hambantota Port Development Plan in Southern Region also estimated approximately 400MW electricity demand for the initial stage in the present deve

330、lopment plan.The Electricity Demand Forecast 2018-2042 was prepared considering major portions of power requirements identified in the above projects,since those will be developed over a period of time.For the long term planning purpose,it is required to identify the time based load requirement to d

331、etermine the load pattern which would impact on electricity demand.3.3 Demand Forecasting Methodology A combination of Time Trend modelling and Econometric approach has been adopted by CEB for the preparation of future electricity demand forecast.For the medium term as first four years,Time Trend mo

332、delling has been adopted by capturing recent electricity sales pattern and the growth.For the long term,econometric approach has been adopted by analysing past electricity sales figures with significant independent variables.Further,the End User Approach was adopted separately through MAED model as

333、described in section 3.5.In End user modelling,extensive analysis of end user energy demand considered by identifying technological,social and economic driving factors in Industry,Transportation,Household and Service sectors separately.3.3.1 Medium Term Demand Forecast(2017-2020)Time trend modelling has been adopted for the electricity demand forecast for 2017-2020 and the sales figures of the pas