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1、LONG TERMGENERATIONEXPANSIONPLAN2022-2041CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD LONG TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN 2022-2041 CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Transmission Division Ceylon Electricity Board Sri Lanka October 2021 Long Term Generation Expansion Planning Studies 2
2、022-2041 PUCSL approval granted with conditions in October 2021(Refer Annex 15)Compiled and prepared by The Generation Planning Unit Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka Long-term generation expansion planning studies are carried out every two years by the T
3、ransmission&Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka and this report is a biennial publication based on the results of the latest expansion planning studies.The data used in this study and the results of the study,which are published in this report,are intended purely for
4、 this purpose.Price Rs.4000.00 Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka,2021 Note:Extracts from this book should not be reproduced without the approval of General Manager CEB Foreword The Report on Long Term Generation Expansion Planning Studies 2022-2041,presents the results of the latest expansion plann
5、ing studies conducted by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board for the planning period 2022-2041,and replaces the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2018-2037.This report,gives a comprehensive view of the existing generating system,future electricity demand
6、 and future power generation options in addition to the expansion study results.The latest available data were used in the study.The Planning Team wishes to express their gratitude to all those who have assisted in preparing the report.We would welcome suggestions,comments and criticism for the impr
7、ovement of this publication.October 2021.Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Letters:5th Floor,Head Office Bldg.Tr.and Generation Planning Branch Ceylon Electricity Board 5th Floor,Ceylon Electricity Board Sir Chittampalam A.Gardinar Mw.P.O.Box 540 Colombo 02 Colombo,Sri Lanka e-mail:cegptgp
8、.trceb.lk Tel:+94-11-2329812 Fax:+94-11-2434866 Prepared by:Reviewed by:Mr.V.B.Wijekoon Mr.G.J.Aluthge Chief Engineer(Generation Planning and Design)Additional General Manager(Transmission)Mr.M.M.S.M.K.Gunaratne Electrical Engineers Former Additional General Manager(Transmission)Mr.R.B Wijekoon Mr.M
9、.L.Weerasinghe Mrs.D.C Hapuarachchi Deputy General Manager(Transmission&Generation Planning)Mrs.M.D.V Fernando Mr.K.H.A Kaushalya Mr.K.A.M.N.Pathiratne Any clarifications sought or request for copies of the report should be sent to the Deputy General Manager(Transmission and Generation Planning)at t
10、he address above.Page i CONTENT Page Contents i Annexes v List of Tables vi List of Figures viii Acronyms x Executive Summary E-1 1 Introduction 1-1 1.1 Background 1-1 1.2 Sri Lankas Economy 1-3 1.2.1 Electricity and Economy 1-4 1.2.2 Economic Projections 1-4 1.3 Sri Lankas Energy Sector 1-5 1.3.1 E
11、nergy Supply 1-5 1.3.2 Energy Demand 1-7 1.4 Electricity Sector 1-9 1.4.1 Global Electricity Sector 1-9 1.4.2 Local Electricity Sector 1-11 1.5 1.6 1.7 Emissions Implementation of the Expansion Plan Structure of the Report 1-19 1-21 1-21 2.The Existing and Committed Generating System 2-1 2.1 Hydro a
12、nd Other Renewable Power Generation 2-1 2.1.1 CEB Owned Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants 2-1 2.1.2 Other Renewable Power Plants Owned by IPPs 2-6 2.1.3 Capability of Hydropower Plants 2-6 2.2 Thermal Generation 2-7 2.2.1 CEB Thermal Plants 2-7 2.2.2 Independent Power Producers(IPPs)2-10 3 Elec
13、tricity Demand:Past and the Forecast 3-1 3.1 Past Demand 3-1 3.2 3.3 Policies,Guidelines and Information on Future Major Development Projects for Electricity Demand Forecast 3.2.1 Policies and Guidelines 3.2.2 Information on Future Major Development Projects Demand Forecasting Methodology 3-3 3-3 3-
14、3 3-4 3.3.1 Medium Term Demand Forecast(2022-2024)3-5 3.3.2 Long Term Demand Forecast(2025-2046)3-5 3.3.3 Cumulative Electricity Demand Forecast 3-8 3.4 Base Demand Forecast 3-11 3.5 Development of Load Projection Scenario based on MAED Model 3-12 3.6 Demand Forecast Scenarios and Sensitivities 3-14
15、 3.7 Comparison with Past Forecasts 3-16 3.8 Electricity Demand Reduction and Demand Side Management 3-17 Page ii 4 Thermal Power Generation Options for Future Expansions 4-1 4.1 Thermal Power Candidate Technologies 4-2 4.1.1 Thermal Power Technologies 4-2 4.1.2 Candidate Thermal Plants for Initial
16、Screening 4-3 4.1.3 Candidate Thermal Plant Specifications 4-3 4.2 Fuel Types 4-5 4.3 Thermal Plant Specific Cost Comparison 4-10 4.4 Current Status of Non Committed Thermal Projects 4-11 4.5 India-Sri Lanka Electricity Grid Interconnection 4-12 5 Renewable Generation Options for Future Expansions 5
17、-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Major Renewable Energy Development 5-2 5.2.1 Available Studies on Hydro Projects 5-2 5.2.2 Committed Hydro Power Projects 5-3 5.2.3 Candidate Hydro Power Projects 5-4 5.2.4 Details of the Candidate Hydro Power Projects 5-5 5.3 Hydro Power Capacity Extensions 5-6 5.3.1 Mah
18、aweli Complex 5-6 5.3.2 Samanala Complex 5-7 5.3.3 Laxapana Complex 5-8 5.4 Other Renewable Energy Development 5-9 5.4.1 Projected future development 5-11 5.4.2 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Study 2020-2030 5-16 5.4.3 Wind Resource Development 5-19 5.4.4 Solar Power Development 5-20 5.4.4.1 Deve
19、lopment of Large and Medium Scale Solar PV Parks 5-20 5.4.4.2 Development of Small Scale Distributed Solar PV Projects 5-20 5.4.4.3 Development of Small Scale Distributed Solar PV schemes in Low Voltage Network 5-21 5.4.4.4 Development of Rooftop Solar PV Installations 5-21 5.4.4.5 Potential to Deve
20、lop Floating Solar PV Plants 5-22 5.4.5 Mini-hydro Development 5-22 5.4.6 Biomass Power Development 5-23 5.4.7 Municipal Solid Waste Based Power Generation 5-23 5.4.8 Other Forms of Renewable Energy Technologies 5-24 5.4.9 Development of Grid Scale Energy Storages 5-24 5.4.9.1 Grid Scale Battery Ene
21、rgy Storage Development 5-24 5.4.9.2 Pumped Storage Hydro Power Development 5-25 6 Generation Expansion Planning Methodology and Parameters 6-1 6.1 Generation Planning Code 6-1 6.2 National Energy Policy and Strategies 6-1 6.3 6.4 General Policy Guidelines on the Electricity Industry for the PUCSL P
22、reliminary Screening of Generation Options 6-4 6-5 6.5 Planning Software Tools 6-5 6.5.1 Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming(SDDP)6-5 6.5.2 OPTGEN/SDDP Software 6-6 6.4.3 MAED Model 6-6 6.6 Modelling of Hydro Power Development 6-6 6.7 Modeling of Other Renewable Energy 6-7 Page iii 6.8 Assessment of
23、 System Operational Capability 6-7 6.9 Assessment of Environmental Implications 6-7 6.10 Assessment of Implementation Time and Financial Scheduling 6-8 6.11 Study Parameters 6-8 6.11.1 Study Period 6-8 6.11.2 Economic Ground Rules 6-8 6.11.3 Plant Commissioning and retirements 6-9 6.11.4 Cost of Ene
24、rgy Not Served(ENS)6-9 6.11.5 Reliability Criteria 6-9 6.11.6 Discount Rate 6-10 6.11.7 Plant Capital Cost Distribution among Construction Years 6-10 6.11.8 Assumptions and Constraints Applied 6-10 7 Generation Expansion Planning Study Development of the Reference Case 7-1 7.1 Introduction 7-1 7.2 R
25、eference Case Plan 7-1 7.2.1 System Capacity Distribution 7-4 7.2.2 System Energy Share 7-5 7.2.3 Environmental Emissions and Implications 7-6 8 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study Base Case Plan 8-1 8.1 Results of the Preliminary Screening of Generation Options 8-1 8.2 Government Policy
26、on Composition of Electricity Generation 8-2 8.3 Base Case Plan 8-4 8.3.1 System Capacity Distribution 8-8 8.3.2 System Energy Share 8-12 8.3.3 Fuel,Operation and Maintenance Cost 8-15 8.3.4 Reserve Margin and LOLP 8-17 8.3.5 Operational Analysis of the Base Case Plan 8-18 8.4 Impact of Demand Varia
27、tion on Base Case Plan 8-24 8.5 Impact of Discount Rate Variation on Base Case Plan 8-25 8.6 Impact of Fuel Price Sensitivity on Base Case Plan 8-26 8.7 Summary 8-27 9 Results of Generation Expansion Planning StudyScenario Analysis and Determination of Base Case 9-1 9.1 Scenario 1:Current Policy Sce
28、nario 9-1 9.2 Scenario 2:70%Low Carbon by 2030 and maintaining the same beyond 2030 9-2 9.3 Scenario 3:70%Low Carbon by 2030 and increasing the same beyond 2030 by restricting coal power development 9-3 9.4 India-Sri Lanka HVDC Interconnection Scenario 9-4 9.5 Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Developme
29、nt Scenario 9-7 9.6 Determination of Base Case 9-8 9.7 Comparison of Energy Supply alternatives in 2041 9-10 9.7.1 Global Context 9-10 9.7.2 Sri Lankan Context 9-11 Page iv 10 Environmental Implications 10-1 10.1 Climate Change 10-1 10.1.1 Greenhouse Gases 10-1 10.1.2 GHG Emission Reduction Protocol
30、s 10-2 10.1.3 Climate Finance 10-4 10.2 Country Context 10-5 10.2.1 Overview of Emissions in Sri Lanka 10-5 10.2.2 Role of Sri Lankaon Climate ChangeMitigation 10-6 10.2.3 Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)of Sri Lanka 10-9 10.2.4 Ambient Air Quality&Stack Emission Standards 10-12 10.3 Emissi
31、on Factors 10-14 10.3.1 Uncontrolled Emission Factors 10-14 10.3.2 Emission Control Technologies 10-14 10.3.3 Emission Factors Used 10-16 10.4 Environmental Implications Base Case 10-17 10.5 Environmental Implications Other Scenarios 10-19 10.5.1 Comparison of Emissions 10-19 10.5.2 Cost Impacts of
32、CO2 Emission Reduction 10-22 10.6 Externalities 10-23 10.6.1 Local Environmental Damage Issues 10-24 10.6.2 Global Damage Issues of GHG Emissions 10-24 11 Recommendations of the Base Case Plan 11-1 11.1 Introduction 11-1 11.2 Recommendations for the Base Case Plan 11-1 12 Implementation and Investme
33、nt of Generation Projects 12-1 12.1 Present Status of Power Plants in the Base Case Plan 12-1 12.1.1 Present Status of the Committed Plants 12-1 12.1.2 Present Status of the Candidate Power Plants 12-3 12.2 Power Plants Identified in the Base Case Plan from 2022 to 2031 12-5 12.3 Implementation Sche
34、dule 12-5 12.4 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2022 2041 and Financial Options 12-6 12.4.1 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2022 2041 12-6 12.4.2 Financial Options 12-6 13 Contingency Analysis 13-1 13.1 Risk Events 13-1 13.1.1 Variation in Hydrology 13-1 13.1.2 Variation in Demand 13-2 13.1.3 D
35、elays in Implementing Power Plants 13-2 13.1.4 Long Period Outage of a Major Power Plant 13-3 13.2 Evaluation of Contingencies 13-4 13.2.1 Single Occurrence of Risk Events 13-4 13.2.2 Simultaneous Occurrence of Several Risk Events 13-5 13.3 Conclusion 13-8 Page v 14 Revision to Previous Plan 14-1 14
36、.1 Government Policies 14-1 14.2 Demand Forecast 14-2 14.3 Fuel Prices Variation 14-3 14.4 Integration of Other Renewable Energy(ORE)14-4 14.5 Introduction of Battery Storage 14-4 14.6 Capacity Share and Energy Share 14-4 14.7 Environmental Emissions 14-6 14.8 Overall Comparison 14-7 References R1 A
37、nnexes Annex 2.1 Reservoir System in Mahaweli,Kelani and Walawe River Basins A2-1 Annex 3.1 Scenarios&Sensitivities of Demand Forecast A3-1 Annex 5.1 Methodology of the Renewable Energy Integration Study 2020-2030 A5-1 Annex 5.2 Modeled Wind Turbine Characteristics and Power Plant Output A5-2 Annex
38、5.3 Solar and Mini-Hydro Plant Production Profiles A5-3 Annex 5.4 Cost Details Other Renewable Energy A5-4 Annex 6.1 Methodology of the Screening of Curve A6-1 Annex 8.1 Screening of Generation Options A8-1 Annex 8.2 Capacity Balance for the Base Case Plan of 2022-2041 A8-4 Annex 8.3 Energy Balance
39、for the Base Case Plan of 2022-2041 A8-5 Annex 8.4 Annual Energy Generation and Plant Factors A8-6 Annex 8.5 Fuel Requirements and Expenditure on Fuel A8-13 Annex 8.6 High Demand Case A8-14 Annex 8.7 Low Demand Case A8-16 Annex 9.1 Scenario 1:Current Policy Scenario A9-1 Annex 9.2 Scenario 2:70%Low
40、Carbon by 2030 and maintaining the same beyond 2030 A9-3 Annex 9.3 Scenario 3:70%Low Carbon by 2030 and increasing the same beyond 2030 by restricting coal power development A9-5 Annex 9.4 Scenario 4:India-Sri Lanka Cross Border HVDC Interconnection Scenario A9-7 Annex 12.1 Investment Plan for Major
41、 Hydro&Thermal Projects(Base Case),2022-2041 A12-1 Annex 12.2 Investment Plan for Major Wind&Solar Developments(Base Case),2022-2041 A12-4 Annex 14.1 Actual Generation Expansions and the Plans from 1993-2022 A14-1 Annex 15 PUCSL Approval Letter A15-1 Page vi LIST OF TABLES Page E.1 Base Demand Forec
42、ast:2022-2046 E-5 E.2 Summary of Planning Scenarios and Present Value cost E-7 E.3 Proposed Base Case 2022-2041 E-8 1.1 Demographic and Economic Indicators of Sri Lanka 1-3 1.2 Forecast of GDP Growth Rate in Real Terms 1-4 1.3 Energy Demand by Energy Source 1-8 1.4 Installed Capacity and Peak Demand
43、 115 1.5 Electricity Generation 1996 2020 117 1.6 Comparison of Total Installed Capacity of the System by December 2020 1-19 1.7 Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1-20 2.1 CO2 Emissions in the Recent Past 2-1 2.2 Existing and Committed Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants 2-4 2.3 Ex
44、isting Other Renewable Energy(ORE)Capacities 2-6 2.4 Plant Retirement Schedule 2-8 2.5 Details of CEB Owned Existing Thermal Plants 2-8 2.6 Characteristics of Existing CEB Owned Thermal Plants 2-9 2.7 Details of Existing and Committed IPP Thermal Plants 2-10 3.1 Electricity Demand in Sri Lanka,2006-
45、2020 3-1 3.2 Variables Used for Econometric Modeling 3-6 3.3 Base Demand Forecast 2022-2046 3-11 3.4 Main&Sub Sector Breakdown for MAED 3-12 3.5 Annual Average Growth Rate 2022-2046 3-13 3.6 MAED Reference Scenario 3-13 3.7 Comparison of Past Demand Forecasts with Gross Energy Sold(in GWh)3-16 4.1 C
46、ost Details of Thermal Expansion Candidates 4-4 4.2 Characteristics of Candidate Thermal Plants 4-4 4.3 Oil Prices and Characteristics for Analysis 4-6 4.4 Coal Prices and Characteristics for Analysis 4-7 4.5 Specific Cost of Candidate Thermal Plants in USCts/kWh(LKR/kWh)4-9 5.1 Characteristics of C
47、andidate Hydro Plants 5-5 5.2 Capital Cost Details of Hydro Expansion Candidates 5-5 5.3 Details of Victoria Expansion 5-6 5.4 Expansion Details of Samanalawewa Power Station 5-8 5.5 Energy and Demand Contribution from Other Renewable Sources 5-10 5.6 Projected Future Development of ORE(Assumed as C
48、ommitted in Base Case Plan)5-12 5.7 Estimated capital cost of Two Proposed Sites for PSPP 5-26 6.1 Committed Power Plants 6-10 6.2 Candidate Power Plants 6-11 6.3 Plant Retirement Schedule 6-11 7.1 Generation Expansion Planning Study Reference Case(2022-2041)7-2 7.2 Capacity Additions by Plant Type
49、Reference Case(2022-2041)7-4 7.3 Annual Environmental Emissions of the Reference Case 7-6 8.1 Generation Expansion Planning Study-Base Case(2022-2041)8-5 Page vii 8.2 Generation Expansion Planning Study-Base Case Capacity Additions(2022-2041)8-8 8.3 Capacity Additions by Plant Type 8-9 8.4 Capacity
50、Distribution for Selected Years in Base Case 8-12 8.5 Cost of Fuel,Operation and Maintenance of Base Case 8-15 8.6 Results of the Operational Analysis 8-22 8.7 Capacity Additions by Plant Type High Demand Case 8-24 8.8 Capacity Additions by Plant Type Low Demand Case 8-25 8.9 Fuel Price Projections-
51、Current Policy Scenario of World Energy Outlook 2020 8-26 8.10 Sensitivity of Operational Cost due to fuel price variations 8-27 8.11 Comparison of the Sensitivities of the Base Case Plan 8-28 9.1 Capacity Additions by Plant Type of Scenario 1 Current Policy Scenario 9-2 9.2 Capacity Additions by Pl
52、ant Type of Scenario 2:70%Low Carbon by 2030 and maintaining the same beyond 2030 9-3 9.3 Capacity Additions by Plant Type of Scenario 3:Low Carbon by 2030 and increasing the same beyond 2030 by restricting coal power development 9-4 9.4 Sensitivity analysis for the transfer price of the HVDC interc
53、onnection 9-5 9.5 Capacity Additions by Plant Type of HVDC Interconnection Scenario 9-6 9.6 Summary of PV cost of the scenarios 9-9 9.7 Present&Projected Power Generation Mix in Other Countries and Regions 9-10 10.1 Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Gases 10-2 10.2 Summary of Major COP Decision
54、s 10-3 10.3 CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion 10-5 10.4 Ambient Air Quality Standards of Sri Lanka 10-12 10.5 Stack Emission Standards of Sri Lanka 10-12 10.6 Comparison of Ambient Air Quality Standards of Different Countries&Organisation 10-13 10.7 Uncontrolled Emission Factors(by Plant Technology
55、)10-14 10.8 Abatement Factors of Typical Control Devices 10-15 10.9 Emission Factors of the coal power plants 10-16 10.10 Emission Factors of Candidate Power Plants 10-16 10.11 Air Emissions of Base Case 10-17 13.1 Expected Annual Energy Output of Five Hydro Conditions and the Difference Compared wi
56、th Annual Average Hydro Energy 13-1 13.2 Implementation Delay Cases for Major Pipeline Projects 13-3 13.3 Details of Risk Event Outage of a Major Power Plant 13-3 13.4 Additional short term capacity requirement and the differed energy under implementation delay cases compared to the Base Case(drires
57、t hydro condition)13-4 13.5 Impact of Single Occurrence of Risk Events 13-5 13.6 Available Firm Capacities in Critical Period in the Base Case(MW)13-5 13.7 Assessment of the additional capacity deficit and the risk of energy deficit compared to the Base Case under Contingency event 1 due to Risk eve
58、nt 1 and Risk event 3 13-6 13.8 Assessment of the additional capacity deficit and the risk of energy deficit compared to the Base Case under Contingency event 1 due to Risk event 1,3 and 4 13-7 13.9 Assessment of the additional capacity deficit and the risk of energy deficit compared to the Base Cas
59、e under Contingency event 1 due to Risk event 1,2 and 3 13-8 Page viii LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 Balance of competing objectives 1-2 1.2 Growth Rates of GDP and Electricity Sales 1-4 1.3 Energy Flow Diagram 1-5 1.4 Share of Gross Primary Energy Supply by Source 1-7 1.5 Gross Energy Consumption by Sec
60、tors including Non-Commercial Sources 1-8 1.6 World Electricity Generation(GWh)1-10 1.7 World Electricity Generation by Source as Percentage 1-10 1.8 Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2001-2020)1-12 1.9 Sectorial-Consumption of Electricity(2020)1-12 1.10 Sri Lanka Per Capita Electricity Consumpti
61、on(2001-2020)1-13 1.11 Unit Cost of Electricity(2012-2020)1-14 1.12 Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand 1-15 1.13 Other Renewable Energy Capacity Development 1-16 1.14 Generation Share in the Recent Past 1-18 1.15 Renewable Share in the Recent Past 1-18 1.16 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2
62、020 1-20 2.1 Location of Existing,Committed and Candidate Power Stations 2-5 2.2 Potential of Hydropower System from Past 20 Years Hydrological Data 2-7 3.1 Past System Loss 3-2 3.2 Past trend in the Load factor 3-2 3.3 Change in Daily Load Curve Over the Last Eight Years 3-2 3.4 Consumption Share A
63、mong Different Consumer Categories 3-3 3.5 Net Loss Forecast 2022-2046 3-8 3.6(a)Analysis of Night peak,Day peak and Off peak Trends 2011-2019 3-9 3.6(b)Load Profile Shape Forecast 3-10 3.7 System Load Factor Forecast 2022-2046 3-10 3.8 Generation Forecast Comparison 3-14 3.9 Peak Demand Forecast Co
64、mparison 3-14 3.10 Generation Forecast of Low,High,Long Term Time Trend and MAED with Base 3-15 3.11 Peak Demand Forecast of Low,High,Long Term Time Trend and MAED with Base 3-15 4.1 Crude Oil Price Comparison 4-5 4.2 Coal Price Forecast Comparison 4-6 4.3 Natural Gas Price Comparison 4-8 5.1 Other
65、Renewable Installed Capacity by source 2000-2020 5-9 5.2 Classification of phases based on variable renewable integration challenges 5-11 5.3 Past and Future Other Renewable Energy(ORE)Capacity Development 5-13 5.4 Total Renewable Energy Capacity Development 5-14 5.5 Energy Contribution of Renewable
66、 Energy Sources and Energy Share for next 20 Years 5-14 5.6 Energy Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Share for Next 20 Years 5-15 5.7 Three Selected Sites for PSPP after Preliminary Screening 5-27 7.1 Cumulative Capacity by Plant Type in Reference Case 7-5 7.2 Energy Mix over next
67、20 years in Reference Case 7-6 8.1 Cumulative Capacity by Plant type in Base Case 8-10 8.2 Capacity Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 8-10 Page ix 8.3 Capacity Wise Renewable Contribution over next 20 years 8-11 8.4 Firm Capacity Share over next 20 years in Base Case 8-11 8.5 Energy Mix over next
68、20 years in Base Case 8-13 8.6 Percentage Share of Energy Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 8-13 8.7 Percentage Share of Renewables over next 20 years in Base Case 8-14 8.8 Percentage Share of low carbon based generation over next 20 years in Base Case 8-14 8.9 Fuel Requirement of Base Case 8-15 8
69、.10 Expected Variation of Fuel Cost in Base Case 8-16 8.11 Expected Annual Natural Gas Requirement of the Base Case in Different Hydro Scenarios 8-17 8.12 Variation of Reserve Margin in Base Case 8-18 8.13 VRE Capacity and the Energy Share in the Base Case 8-19 8.14 Daily Ramping events from VRE-20t
70、h Week of Year 2030 8-20 8.15 Daily Ramping events of the Net Load-20th Week of Year 2030 8-20 8.16 Hourly Ramps of the Net Load-20th Week of Year 2030 8-21 9.1 Energy Share Comparison in 2041 9-11 9.2 Installed Capacity Share Comparison in 2041 9-12 10.1 Average CO2 Emission Factor 10-5 10.2 Expect
71、ed Emission Reduction of Base Case compared to NDC BAU 10-11 10.3 PM,SO2,NOx and CO2 emissions of Base Case Scenario 10-18 10.4 SO2,NOx and CO2 Emissions per kWh generated 10-18 10.5 Average CO2 Emission Factor Comparison 10-19 10.6 SO2 Emissions 10-20 10.7 NOx Emissions 10-20 10.8 CO2 Emissions 10-
72、21 10.9 Particulate Matter Emissions 10-21 10.10 Comparison of System Cost with CO2 Emissions 10-22 10.11 Comparison of Incremental Cost for CO2 reduction 10-22 12.1 Implementation Plan of Thermal Power Projects 2022-2041 12-6 12.2 Implementation Plan of Major Renewable Energy and Storage Projects 2
73、022-2031 12-6 12.3 Investment Plan for Base Case 2020 2039 12-7 13.1 Comparison of Annual energy demand differences of high and low demand projections with the base demand forecast 13-2 14.1 Comparison of LTGEP 2018-2037 and LTGEP 2022-2041 Energy Demand Forecasts 14-2 14.2 Comparison of LTGEP 2018-
74、2037 and LTGEP 2022-2041 Peak Demand Forecasts 14-3 14.3 Fuel price variation of LTGEP 2018-2037 and LTGEP 2022-2041 14-3 14.4 Comparison of ORE Capacity between LTGEP 2018-2037<GEP 2022-2041 14-4 14.5 Comparison of Capacity Share between LTGEP 2018-2037<GEP 2022-2041 14-5 14.6 Comparison of Ene
75、rgy Share between LTGEP 2018-2037<GEP 2022-2041 14-5 14.7 CO2 and PM Emissions between LTGEP 2018-2037<GEP 2022-2041 14-6 14.8 SO2 and NOx Emissions between LTGEP 2018-2037<GEP 2022-2041 14-6 Page x ACRONYMS ADB -Asian Development Bank API-Argus/McCloskeys Coal price Index bcf-Billion Cubic Fe
76、et BOO -Build,Own and Operate BOOT-Build,Own,Operate and Transfer CCY-Combined Cycle Power Plant CEA-Central Environmental Authority CEB -Ceylon Electricity Board CECB -Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau CIDA-Canadian International Development Agency CIF -Cost,Insurance and Freight CDM -Clean De
77、velopment Mechanism CER-Certified Emission Reduction COP-Conference of Parties CPC-Ceylon Petroleum Cooperation DSM -Demand Side Management EIA -Environmental Impact Assessment ENS -Energy Not Served EOI-Expression of Interest ESP-Electrostatic Precipitator FGD-Flue Gas Desulphurization FO-Furnace O
78、il FOB-Free On Board FOR-Forced Outage Rate FSRU-Floating Storage Regasification Unit GCV-Gross Calorific Value GDP-Gross Domestic Product GHG-Green House Gases GIS-Geographic Information System GT-Gas Turbine HHV-Higher Heating Value HVDC-High Voltage Direct Current IAEA -International Atomic Energ
79、y Agency IC-Internal Combustion IDC -Interest During Construction IEA-International Energy Agency IMF-International Monetary Fund INDC-Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC-Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change IPP-Independent Power Producer JBIC-Japan Bank for International Coopera
80、tion JCC-Japan Crude Oil Cocktail Page xi JICA -Japan International Cooperation Agency JKM-Japanese Korean Marker LKR-Sri Lanka Rupees KPS-Kelanithissa Power Station LCC-Line Commutated Converter LCOE-Levelised Cost of Electricity LDC -Load Duration Curve LF-Load Factor LNG-Liquefied Natural Gas LOL
81、P-Loss of Load Probability LPG-Liquefied Petroleum Gas LTGEP -Long Term Generation Expansion Plan MMSCFD-Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day MAED-The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand MMBTU-Million British Thermal Units MTPA-Million Tons Per Annum NDC-Nationally Determined Contributions NEPS-Natio
82、nal Energy Policy and Strategy NG-Natural Gas NPP-Nuclear Power Plant OECD-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECF -Overseas Economic Co-operation Fund ORE-Other Renewable Energy OTEC-Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion O&M -Operation and Maintenance PF -Plant Factor PM-Particulate M
83、atter PPA-Power Purchase Agreement PRDS-Petroleum Resources Development Secretariat PSPP-Pumped Storage Power Plant PUCSL-Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka PV-Photovoltaic RE-Renewable Energy RFP-Request For Proposals SAM -System Advisor Model SCR -Selective Catalytic Reduction SDDP -Stochast
84、ic Dual Dynamic Programming SPPA -Standardized Power Purchase Agreement ST -Steam Turbine TC-Technical Cooperation UNFCCC-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID-United States Agency for International Development US$-American Dollars WB-World Bank WHO-World Health Organization VR
85、E-Variable Renewable Energy VSC-Voltage Source Converter Generation Expansion Plan 2021 E-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION This Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan(LTGEP)2022-2041 is prepared at a time electricity systems world over are undergoing significant changes owing to the worldwide appetite
86、to transit from the traditional fossil fuel-based generation that had dominated power systems for centuries,towards cleaner,environmentally friendly,natural forms of electricity.Considering the significant benefits and opportunities such transition could bring,not only to the Sri Lankan economy to r
87、elieve itself from imported fossil fuel dependency but also to the global environment to make economic development sustainable and go in harmony with environment,Ceylon Electricity Board(CEB)too had readily embraced such concepts as reflected in this Generation Plan.Additionally,this plan has been p
88、repared at a time the entire world is coming to terms with the worldwide Covid 19 pandemic,which is still ravaging and affecting world economies with no end in sight.Planning in such an environment is challenging as the final impact to economy and to the implementation of ongoing projects,are beyond
89、 even the most discerning estimates.LTGEP 2022-2041 presents result of the generation expansion planning studies carried out by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board for the period 2022-2041.The report also includes information on the existing generation sys
90、tem,the generation planning methodology,system demand forecast and the investment requirement and implementation plans for the proposed projects.Out of different possible scenarios,the plan recommends the adoption of the most justifiable generation mix for the future(titled the Base Case plan).It al
91、so contains contingency analysis to prepare for possible contingency events in near term.Key actions and recommendations are separately presented at the end of this executive summary.PLANNING THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DECADES AT THE CROSSROAD FOR THE FUTURE This Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan(This p
92、lan is known in the Sri Lanka Electricity Act as the Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan),a biennial publication prepared by Ceylon Electricity Board,outlines the generating capacity requirement of the power sector during the two decades ahead,to realise a secure and reliable,economical,s
93、ustainable supply of electricity,while adhering to the government policies and environmental obligations of the country.The planning window of this generation planning report extends to the fifth decade of the third millennium,and hence likely to witness the biggest changes to electricity systems si
94、nce they first saw light of day in the late 19th century.PATHWAY FOR A GRADUAL TRANSITION Sri Lanka and the world is clearly at a crossroad,but taking their own individual pathways towards a global carbon neutral future.However,the journey towards such carbon neutral future must be made carefully,as
95、 synchronous power systems that had existed unchanged for centuries due to certain specific attributes of them,cannot be replaced hastily with asynchronous systems due to the desire to go green,no matter how noble such desire is.A country must study its own specific characteristics,capabilities and,
96、more importantly the limitations,before devising its own strategies based on such understanding to choose the right pathway and achievable,desirable milestone targets.Prematurely E-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 abandoning the development of thermal firm generating capacity1 is not advisable unles
97、s the foreseen Renewable Energy development to take over such conventional firm generating capacity could be practically realised,and the grid support technologies are available and economical.MAKE THE GRID CARBON NEUTRAL READY This generation plan intends to take the country progressively,but stead
98、ily towards a greener future,but via a low carbon pathway initially.If a large proportion of renewable energy(RE)based generation is forced to planning studies,a corresponding reduction will be seen to conventional firm generating capacity in the plan to make way for such high RE additions.For an in
99、stance,since RE sources such as Solar PV has very low plant factors,a very high(MW)capacity of solar PV is required to be added,compared to the capacity of a conventional thermal plant required to provide the same energy.As a result,the real time supply demand(MW)balance could be affected when large
100、 MW capacities from such non-controllable sources are integrated.It is of utmost importance to develop sufficient firm capacity in the system in parallel to high RE development,to avoid any capacity shortages.It is noted with interest that a number of innovative and emerging technologies,which when
101、commercially available as mature,proven technologies could assist power systems to completely abandon the development of conventional technologies in favour of renewable sources at some point in future.However,until such enabling technologies are ready,and the prices are right and affordable to coun
102、tries like ours,the best option is to opt for a gradual transition,but without shutting the doors for future introduction of renewables.Thus,this generation plan has continued with the development of re-gasified Liquified Natural Gas(LNG)based thermal capacity to give the required firm capacity and
103、to replace coal as a fuel.Depending on the readiness of enabling grid support technologies,development of the network infrastructure and the capacity of the countrys project development machinery to develop the required RE capacities,in successive generation plans,the thermal firm capacity could be
104、progressively reduced to pave way for the gradual transition to RE and to the greener grid of future.PLANNING FOR THE FIRST TEN YEARS,FACILITATING FOR THE NEXT TEN This generation plan had attempted to fulfil the traditional role of a plan of stipulating the exact generation capacity requirement tha
105、t is required to be developed in to realizable projects to meet the demand for electricity in the next ten years,while presenting a visionary outlook of the last ten years of the 20-year planning window.As things are changing rapidly,and rolling generation plans would be prepared once in two years t
106、o capture such changes in future,the generation schedule during the last ten years of the planning window(2032-2041)is expected to be considerably different to what can be envisioned with todays knowledge.Thus,this generation plan attempts to declare the capacity requirement for the first half of it
107、s planning window to meet the demand and to pave the way to achieve the sustainable future envisaged.1 Firm generating technologies are those that can provide a firm,non-varying power output at their generating terminals at the level requested by the system operators.Storage hydro power,conventional
108、 thermal technologies fall under this category.ORE technologies such as wind and solar outputs vary depending on the resource availability and are unable to be started/stopped,power output raised/lowered on the dispatch instructions of system operators and hence termed non-firm.Generation Expansion
109、Plan 2021 E-3 RESULTS OF THE PLANNING STUDIES THE PLANNING APPROACH CEBs long term planning approach throughout has been to conduct studies2 in advance to explore different technological and fuel options available to be included to plans later,and when the time is right,technologically and economica
110、lly to make the choice,to include those to the long-term generation expansion plans.Similarly,when the cost of non-conventional renewable energy sources(also termed other renewable energy sources ORE)was very high compared to thermal sources,widescale adoption of RE at such prices for 20-year contra
111、ct periods was not facilitated in generation plans.However,when ORE prices started falling rapidly due to falling costs worldwide and low prices brought in due to competitive tendering adopted,CEB plans progressively increased the share of ORE in its plans in considerable amounts.CHANGING ROLES OF F
112、IRM AND NON-FIRM TECHNOLOGIES The traditional planning approach has been to plan for a sufficient firm generating capacity to meet the demand and to meet other technical requirements of the system and,after developing such firm capacity base,absorb ORE based generation to the optimum level to supple
113、ment firm capacity and thereby meet policy obligations and other planning considerations such as fuel diversity and economics.However,with the April 2019 policy guidelines of the government,CEB was given a Renewable Energy Target to aim at by the year 2030 by the policy itself.As per clause 31 under
114、 the section“Environment”,it is stated that;“Subject to favourable weather conditions,country must progress with the vision to achieve 50%of electricity generated in 2030 from renewable sources including large-scale storage hydro and Non-Conventional Renewable energy”.As RE share by 2030 is stipulat
115、ed within the policy document itself,deciding the optimum RE/thermal mix via planning studies had to be replaced by taking the mix declared in the policies directly as input.Accordingly,the 2030 RE milestone target of 50%is now forced in to the plan as input and the planning studies were conducted t
116、o decide the firm capacity and grid support interventions that are required to accommodate the policy target and to address the ensuing technical impacts instead.FLEXIBLE GENERATION The plan proposes natural gas fired Internal Combustion(IC)Engine based generation technology as a solution to provide
117、 operational flexibility required to integrate higher proportion of RE.Additionally,the plan had also requested all future combined cycle power plants to be“technically,operationally and contractually capable of being operated regularly between open cycle and closed cycle operations”to provide opera
118、tional flexibility,particularly when solar generation is high.2 Study for Energy Diversification Enhancement by Introducing LNG Operated Power Generation Option in Sri Lanka,2010,Energy Diversification and Enhancement Project Phase IIA-Feasibility Study for Introducing LNG to Sri Lanka 2014,Pre-Feas
119、ibility Study for High Efficiency and Eco Friendly Coal Fired Thermal Power Plant in Sri Lanka 2014,Feasibility Study on High Efficiency and Eco-friendly Coal-fired Thermal Power Plant in Sri Lanka 2015,Project on Electricity Sector Master Plan Study in Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka 201
120、8.E-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 RENEWABLE ENERGY DESK The plan also had identified other grid support interventions such as the early introduction of a Renewable Energy Desk to the system control centre to separately manage RE capacities that are going to be integrated in large proportions.Intr
121、oduction of solar and wind forecasting too is mandatory to go with the RE Desk.FUEL DIVERSITY Recommended Base Case scenario of this report,facilitates large-scale introduction of renewable energy sources and introduction of natural gas based generation in place of coal to lower the carbon intensity
122、.However,with such heavy dependency now placed on natural gas,the strategic diversity in the fuel supply needs to be separately ensured to protect electricity supply against internal and external vulnerabilities in LNG supply chains.The plan recommends that all-Natural Gas based power plants shall a
123、lso have the dual fuel capability,including suitable fuel supply/storage arrangements locally for such secondary fuel,to ensure supply security in case of disruption to LNG supply.DEVELOPMENT OF THE BASE CASE PLAN DEMAND FORECAST Electricity demand for the period of 2022-2046 was forecasted consider
124、ing a combination of medium term and long-term forecasting approaches.Five-year sales forecast of CEB Distribution Divisions and LECO and time trend approach were used to determine the medium-term forecast.Econometric approach was used for long term forecast.The impact of the ongoing Covid-19 pandem
125、ic to the economy and reduction to the future electricity demand as a result has been considered in preparing the forecast.Generation Expansion Plan 2021 E-5 Table E1-Base Demand Forecast 2022-2046 Year Demand Net Loss*Net Generation Peak Demand(GWh)Growth Rate(%)(%)(GWh)Growth Rate(%)(MW)2022 16,74
126、1 5.8%8.03 18,203 5.7%2,967 2023 17,705 5.8%7.97 19,238 5.7%3,117 2024 18,725 5.8%7.90 20,331 5.7%3,276 2025 19,854 6.0%7.83 21,541 6.0%3,452 2026*21,036 6.0%7.77 22,808 5.9%3,636 2027 22,286 5.9%7.70 24,145 5.9%3,852 2028 23,451 5.2%7.63 25,390 5.2%4,069 2029 24,692 5.3%7.57 26,714 5.2%4,282 2030 2
127、6,035 5.4%7.50 28,146 5.4%4,513 2031 27,438 5.4%7.45 29,647 5.3%4,755 2032 28,835 5.1%7.40 31,139 5.0%4,996 2033 30,301 5.1%7.35 32,705 5.0%5,249 2034 31,826 5.0%7.30 34,332 5.0%5,511 2035 33,445 5.1%7.25 36,060 5.0%5,790 2036 35,100 4.9%7.25 37,844 4.9%6,078 2037 36,792 4.8%7.25 39,668 4.8%6,372 20
128、38 38,506 4.7%7.25 41,516 4.7%6,671 2039 40,255 4.5%7.25 43,402 4.5%6,975 2040 42,046 4.4%7.25 45,333 4.4%7,287 2041 43,859 4.3%7.25 47,288 4.3%7,602 2042 45,705 4.2%7.25 49,278 4.2%7,924 2043 47,590 4.1%7.25 51,310 4.1%8,252 2044 49,544 4.1%7.25 53,417 4.1%8,592 2045 51,597 4.1%7.25 55,630 4.1%8,95
129、0 2046 53,703 4.1%7.25 57,901 4.1%9,317 5 Year Average Growth 5.9%5.8%5.2%10 Year Average Growth 5.6%5.6%5.4%20 Year Average Growth 5.2%5.2%5.1%25 Year Average Growth 5.0%4.9%4.9%*Net losses include losses at the Transmission&Distribution levels and any non-technical losses,Generation(Including auxi
130、liary consumption)losses are excluded.This forecast will vary depending on the hydro thermal generation mix of the future*It is expected that day peak would surpass the night peak from this year onwards Demand for electricity in the country has been growing at an average rate of about 4.4%per annum
131、during the last fifteen years,while peak demand has been growing at a rate of 2.6%per annum on average.However,during year 2020 demand contracted(by 2%,300 GWh compared to 2019)due to COVID 19 pandemic.As per past experience,electricity demand usually makes a comeback following such short-term dips
132、and make the correction later to follow usual growth trends again.As per demand projections,the growth is expected to continue at an average rate of 5.2%in the long run.The changes in daily electricity demand pattern reveals the trend of the day time demand is becoming prominent and is anticipated t
133、o surpass the night peak and become the dominant peak beyond 2026.However,due to large addition of embedded solar PV generation,such high day peak demand may not be seen at the transmission level.E-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 THREE POLICY BASED SCENARIOS As stipulated in the Generation Planning
134、 code,it is mandatory to adhere to the duly approved government policy issued under section 5 of the Sri Lanka Electricity Act when conducting planning studies.The current policy for the sector is contained in the document The General Policy Guidelines in Respect of the Electricity Industry as issue
135、d in April 2019.In addition,it was clear from various policy indications given by the government that the intention of the government is to develop a low carbon electricity supply system and gradually take the sector towards indigenous renewable sources and ultimately towards energy independency.Thu
136、s,planning studies were conducted under three main separate scenarios,each of which fulfil the RE absorption target given in the General Policy Guidelines while aiming to achieve the high renewable,greener grid of future.1.Scenario 1:In compliance to the fuel mix as given in the existing General Pol
137、icy Guidelines issued in April 2019.Key attributes Required diversity to be maintained to the fuel mix of the installed firm capacity to maintain energy security,namely,30%from Coal,30%from LNG,25%from large hydro by 2030;To progress with the vision to achieve 50%of electricity from RE sources by 20
138、30 under favourable weather conditions.2.Scenario 2:Achieve 70%of electricity from low carbon sources by 2030,including a minimum of 50%from RE,and maintain 70%low carbon share up to 2041.3.Scenario 3:Achieve 70%of electricity from low carbon sources by 2030,and increase the share of low carbon sour
139、ces beyond 2030 by restricting Coal Power development.The Table E2 below present the comparison of the long term expansion planning scenarios considered in this LTGEP 2022-2041.Generation Expansion Plan 2021 E-7 Table E2.Summary of Planning Scenarios and Present Value cost Total Present Value Cost(M
140、USD)Difference of PV Cost compared to reference scenario(MUSD)Reference 15,924 Scenario 1 Current policy on Fuel Diversification 16,147 223 Scenario 2 70%Low Carbon by 2030 and maintaining the same beyond 2030 16,276 352 Scenario 3 70%Low Carbon by 2030 with restricting Coal power Development beyond
141、 2030 16,280 356 Scenario 4 Cross-border Interconnection 16,304 380 Considering the governments intention of developing a low carbon electricity system,considering the worldwide movement to low carbon intensity energy systems,considering small difference to total present value cost(PV)between the th
142、ree scenarios as given in Table E2,and considering operational flexibility that needs to be maintained in generation to absorb high proportion of RE in future,Scenario 3 as depicted in Table E3,was adopted as the Base Case scenario to facilitate long term transition towards low carbon electricity sy
143、stem beyond 2030.E-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Table E3:Proposed Base Case 2022-2041(To be referred in conjunction with conditions stipulated by PUCSL through letter in Annex 15)YEAR RENEWABLE CAPACITY&GRID SCALE ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY ADDITIONS(h)(i)THERMAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS(a)THERMAL CAPACI
144、TY RETIREMENTS(c)(d)2022 Solar 340 MW Wind 20 MW Mini Hydro 15 MW Biomass 14 MW Uma Oya HPP 120 MW Broadlands HPP 35 MW 250 MW Short Term Supplementary Power 1 -2023 Solar 260 MW Wind 35 MW Mini Hydro 20 MW Biomass 4 MW 130 MW New Gas Turbines at Kelanitissa 2 200 MW Open Cycle Operation of First 35
145、0 MW Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant Kerawalapitiya 163 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant(KPS2)3 4x17 MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbines 4 163 MW Sojitz Kelanitissa Combined Cycle Plant 3 100 MW Short Term Supplementary Power 2024 Solar 270 MW Wind 40 MW 5 Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW Moragolla HPP 31
146、MW 150 MW Steam Turbine Operation of First 350 MW Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant Kerawalapitiya 200 MW Open Cycle Operation of Second 350 MW Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant Kerawalapitiya 150 MW Short Term Supplementary Power 2025 Solar 260 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW
147、 Battery Energy Storage 20 MW 9 150 MW Steam Turbine Operation of Second 350 MW Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant Kerawalapitiya 300 MW Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant Extension7 4x15.6 MW CEB Barge Power Plant 6 2026 Solar 195 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW 250 MW IC Engine Power Plan
148、t(Natural Gas)Southern Region7 115 MW Gas Turbine(GT7)8 4x17 MW Sapugaskande Diesel 8x9 MW Sapugaskande Diesel Ext.2027 Solar 160 MW Wind 120 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW 400 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region(Natural Gas)7-2028 Solar 170 MW Wind 120 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW 30
149、0 MW New Coal Power Plant-Foul Point7-2029 Solar 160 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW Battery Energy Storage 30 MW 9 Pumped Storage HPP 200 MW -2030 Solar 170 MW Wind 130 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW Biomass 5 MW Battery Energy Storage 50 MW 9 Pumped Storage HPP 200 MW -Generation Expansion Plan
150、2021 E-9 Table E3:Proposed Base Case 2022-2041(To be referred in conjunction with conditions stipulated by PUCSL through letter in Annex 15)YEAR RENEWABLE CAPACITY&GRID SCALE ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY ADDITIONS(h)(i)THERMAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS(a)THERMAL CAPACITY RETIREMENTS(c)(d)2031 Solar 190 MW Wind
151、100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW Pumped Storage HPP 200 MW -2032 Solar 190 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 200 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7 100 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2033 Solar 180 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 400 MW Combined Cycle Power P
152、lant(Natural Gas)-Western Region7 200 MW IC Engine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7 165 MW Combined Cycle Plant(KPS)163 MW Combined Cycle Plant(KPS-2)3 x 8.93 MW Uthuru Janani Power Plant 2034 Solar 200 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 200 MW IC Engine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2035 Solar 240 MW
153、 Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 400 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant(Natural Gas)Western Region7 200 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7 300 MW West Coast Combined Cycle Power Plant 2036 Solar 250 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 200 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7 10
154、0 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2037 Solar 240 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 400 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2038 Solar 240 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 100 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2039 Solar 240 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW
155、Biomass 5 MW 400 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2040 Solar 240 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 250 MW IC Engine Power Plant(Natural Gas)7-2041 Solar 240 MW Wind 100 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW Biomass 5 MW 400 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant(Natural Gas)7 100 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant
156、(Natural Gas)7 300 MW Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant Unit 1 GENERAL NOTES a.All plant capacities(MW)shown are the Gross Capacities.b.Conventional,firm capacity power plants are shown in bold text.Committed Power Projects are shown in italic.E-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 c.Dates of all plant additi
157、ons and plant retirements,(other than retirements of existing plants on PPA)as contained in the table are the dates considered for planning studies,and considered as added/retired at the beginning(as at 1st January)of the respective year.(For example,a generating capacity retirement indicated for ye
158、ar 2025 implies that the plant has been considered as retired from the 1st of January 2025).However,for existing power plants that are governed by Power Purchases Agreements(PPA),the actual retirement month/date as contained in the PPA were considered for studies.d.Retirement dates of existing firm
159、capacity plants are dates considered as inputs to planning studies.The ACTUAL retirement of all power plants is to be made after further evaluating the actual plant condition at the time of retirement,(including the availability of useful operating hours beyond the scheduled retirement date),and the
160、 implementation progress of planned power plant additions.e.With the development of LNG supply infrastructure,the existing 300MW West Coast power plant and 165MW Kelanithissa Combined Cycle plant are expected to be converted to natural gas in 2024.f.Considering the heavy dependency in future on liqu
161、efied natural gas as a fuel for electricity generation,all Natural Gas based power plants shall also have the dual fuel capability,including suitable fuel supply/storage arrangements locally for such secondary fuel,to ensure supply security in case of disruption to LNG supply.g.All new natural gas b
162、ased Combined Cycle Power plants should be technically,operationally and contractually capable of being operated regularly between open cycle and closed cycle operations.h.Mini-hydro and Biomass annual capacity additions are not restricted to the planned capacities mentioned in the table.Higher capa
163、city additions will be evaluated case by case.i.Thalpitigala and Gin Ganga multipurpose hydropower plants are proposed and developed by Ministry of Irrigation and both these plants are considered as candidate power plants with no specific commissioning years at present.SPECIFIC NOTES 1.-Technology o
164、f supplementary capacity can be opened for both Gas Turbine and IC engine technology.Fuel option can be specified as appropriate at the time of procurement for suitable fuels that has established supply chains and having regulated,transparent pricing mechanisms.-The 50 MW CEB owned diesel based IC e
165、ngine power capacity shall be considered appropriately to meet a part of the short term supplementary power capacity requirement.-Short-term supplementary capacity requirement under different contingency events are assessed in the contingency analysis under chapter 13 of the LCLTGEP 2022-2041 report
166、.Such requirements too shall be appropriately considered prior to initiating procurement.-Extension of the contracts of existing capacities could be considered as appropriate to meet short term requirement.2.This power plant is required to have the special capability to carry out restoration of supp
167、ly in case of an island wide power failure.3.PPA of Sojitz Kelanitissa is scheduled to be expired in 2023,and to be operated as a CEB owned power plant from 2023 to 2033 after conversion to Natural Gas in 2024.It is indicated as KPS-2 as a capacity addition.4.Retirement date of the 4 x 17 MW Kelanit
168、issa Gas Turbines are to coincide with the commissioning of the new 130 MW Gas Turbine Plants at the Kelanitissa to comply with local environmental emission regulations.5.In addition,Mannar Stage II(100 MW)could be accommodated if development is carried out on fast track basis provided plant has win
169、d forecasting and semi-dispatchable capability.Generation Expansion Plan 2021 E-11 6.Decision to extend the retirement year of 4 x 15.6 MW Barge Power Plant until the end of year 2026 will be evaluated based on the cost of any refurbishments required for such an extension and the potential benefit o
170、f extending beyond the scheduled retirement year.7.As per letter ref.PUC/LIC/AP21/01 dated October 5,2021 by PUCSL(Annex 15),development of coal power-based generation will not be carried out(despite appearing in base case).Other thermal capacity additions will be reviewed and revised in the next pl
171、anning cycle to comply with the new government policy sent by Secretary,Ministry of Power.8.Retirement year of 115 MW Kelanitissa GT7 is extended until the end of 2025 on the basis of carrying out manufacturer recommended major scheduled maintenance work,along with any other essential maintenance re
172、quired to keep the plant operational.9.Additions of planned battery energy storage capacities are mainly to provide grid level support for renewable energy integration.The additions beyond 2030 will be re-evaluated based on the exact system requirement as well as the progress of the variable renewab
173、le energy development.MEETING ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE OBLIGATIONS The 20-year development plan presented in this report meets all the environmental and climate change obligations of Sri Lanka during its 20-year planning horizon.In response to the climate change challenges,Sri Lanka too has
174、taken several initiatives by introducing national policies,strategies and actions to mitigate the impacts.Sri Lanka,being a partner to COP21 Paris agreement on mitigation of global climate change induced impacts,presented its 1st Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC)in September 2016 to strengthe
175、n global efforts,expressing a commitment of 4%unconditional and 16%conditional reduction of GHG emissions compared to the business as usual(BAU)scenario of LTGEP 2013-2032 for the electricity sector.The country is currently planning to further enhance its commitments through the 2nd NDC submission f
176、or electricity sector,by unconditionally reducing GHG emissions by 5%and conditionally by 20%as compared to the BAU.The base case plan,once fully implemented,is expected to reduce the GHG emissions beyond 25%and thus is fully capable of meeting even the enhanced target.RENEWABLE CAPACITY ADDITIONS T
177、he planned RE capacity as contained in this plan for the period beyond 2030 is expected to be further enhanced in successive generation plans with consideration of progress of implementation and advancement in renewable energy and storage technologies.In the event of further increase to RE capacitie
178、s beyond 2030,a corresponding reduction is expected from natural gas fired generating capacities.Replacement of conventional technologies need to be made gradually,and proportionately with the development of enabling grid support technologies and hence the generation mix beyond 2030 is expected to c
179、hange significantly in favour of RE though cannot be quantified at this stage.The indigenous renewable energy based generation is to dominate in both capacity and energy terms throughout the planning period with a further 3,500 MW of additions envisaged by 2030 and 9,500 MW by 20403.3 As compared wi
180、th actual RE capacity as at end of 2020 E-12 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 STORAGE HYDRO Development of major storage hydro capacity is expected to be limited after completing the projects that are currently in the pipeline amounting to 186 MW(120 MW Uma Oya,35 MW Broadlands and 31 MW Moragolla hyd
181、ropower plants).SOLAR PV Capacity of Solar PV,is planned to be increased up to 2,024 MW by end of 2025 from a capacity of 425 MW(as at end 2020)under a mix of small to large scale developments.It is planned to increase solar capacity to reach 2,874 MW by end of 2030 and is to account for the largest
182、 share in the incremental RE capacity additions.Solar PV is expected to retain its dominant share throughout the 20 year planning period.WIND Installed wind capacity is planned to be increased up to 1,113 MW by end of 2030 and is expected to grow beyond 2030 at the same rate.Unlike solar PV,large sc
183、ale wind projects are expected to dominate the wind development.MINI HYDRO,BIO MASS Moderate growth is expected from Mini-hydro and biomass resources within next twenty years.The plan had not placed any restriction to the mini hydro and biomass capacities to be added.Even though mini hydro is a non-
184、firm technology,outputs of mini hydro plants are not intermittent to the same extent as solar and wind and hence much grid friendly than variable renewable energy(VRE)technologies such as solar and wind.Biomass is not a conventional technology but can be considered a firm generating technology.Thus,
185、no restriction to the development of biomass and mini hydro is placed in this plan and hence such capacities could be developed beyond year-by-year capacities mentioned in the plan subjected to any local grid restrictions,if potential exist.The total renewable energy capacity is planned to be increa
186、sed from 2,427 MW as at end 2020 to 6,240 MW by end of 2030 and to 9,600 MW by end of 2040.The year-by-year renewable energy capacities in the plan are based on the study titled“Integration of Renewable Based Generation into Sri Lankan Grid 2021-2030”conducted by the Ceylon Electricity Board to inve
187、stigate the technical and economic implications of renewable energy development dictated by the policy and to study the necessary enabling measures required for the successful renewable energy development program.The scale of wind and solar development envisaged in the LTGEP 2022-2041 will elevate t
188、he country to the level of nations having high proportion of electricity generation from RE and hence along with it the expected challenges too in not only developing but also operating and maintaining such a system.THERMAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS The plan proposes the development of 5,130 MW of Natural
189、Gas&600 MW of Coal based Generation4 to ensure reliable and economic supply of electricity for the 20-year period.They are to come in different technologies such as Gas Turbines,Combined Cycle plants,Steam Turbines and Internal Combustion Engine(IC)technologies.4 Refer PUCSL letter in ANNEX 15.Devel
190、opment of new Coal capacity will not be carried out accordingly.Generation Expansion Plan 2021 E-13 NATURAL GAS A 1,480 MW capacity from natural gas fired technologies are to be added by the end of 2030.Additions beyond 2030 are predominantly to provide system flexibility that is required when opera
191、ting with higher shares of renewable sources.The existing combined cycle plants that are operating on diesel/naphtha/furnace oil at present are expected to be converted to natural gas once supply of LNG/NG is established.COAL No coal power development has been identified beyond 2030 to enable the lo
192、w carbon transition.The plan contains the already committed 300 MW extension to Lakvijaya coal plant and another solitary 300 MW coal identified to be developed in 20285.These two coal plants will add the much-needed fuel diversity in the firm conventional generating capacity mix to ensure energy su
193、pply security.GRID SUPPORT TECHNOLOGIES A 600 MW capacity from pumped storage hydro and a further 100 MW from battery energy storage systems are planned to be developed within the first decade of the planning horizon to enhance the flexibility of the electricity system to integrate large amount of v
194、ariable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar PV.Pumped storage hydro,that typically has lifespans of over 50 years,is considered a long term grid support solution for the country.Battery too is a very promising technology with rapidly declining price trends.However,current battery technol
195、ogies need to be replaced in much shorter cycles of 10-15 years and thus,will not help to achieve energy independence to the same extent as pumped storage hydro.Thus,a mixed solution is envisaged in the plan with pumped hydro as long-term solution.Grid storage requirements as contained in the plan b
196、eyond 2030 will be further revised in successive plans depending on the development of technology and economics.IMMEDIATE ACTION TO BE TAKEN Timely implementation of following is mandatory to ensure adequate,economical and reliable supply of electricity in both near and long term.1.35 MW Broadlands
197、Hydropower plant,120 MW Uma Oya Hydropower plant and 31 MW Moragolla Hydropower plant 2.130 MW New Gas Turbines at Kelanitissa to facilitate restoration of supply in case of an island wide power failure 3.Establishing the Floating Storage Regasification Unit(FSRU)and associated natural gas supply in
198、frastructure 4.2x350 MW LNG fired combined cycle power plants at Kerawalapitiya in 2023 and 2024 5 Refer PUCSL letter in ANNEX 15.Development of new Coal capacity will not be carried out accordingly.E-14 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 5.Conversion of existing combined cycle power plants to natural g
199、as by the time natural gas supply is in place 6.300 MW Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant extension project6 7.Wind and solar PV development in a mix of small to large scale development having monitoring and controlling facilities enabled at National System Control Centre 8.Renewable energy resource forecas
200、ting system in intra-hour,intra-day and day-ahead timeframes 9.Critical transmission infrastructure to evacuate power from planned near term power plants such as the 2nd 220kV cable between Kerawalapitiya and Colombo RECOMMENDATIONS Following are the main recommendations derived from the long term p
201、lanning studies and it is imperative to take necessary measures by all the stakeholders of the electricity industry to fulfil these recommendations for a secure and reliable,economical,sustainable supply of electricity.1.Project by project development order of renewable energy resources as provided
202、in the plan,year by year,must be prioritized primarily on economics.Development cost,levelized cost of electricity,quality of the resource and cost of additional transmission infrastructure shall be considered during prioritization.Sufficient geographical staggering also to be maintained for solar P
203、V to minimize grid impact due to cloud movement.2.Amendment to the Grid Code to safeguard the grid against large RE additions.3.Strategically minimize the contractual risk of LNG fuel supplies considering fuel price volatility,weather related uncertainties and additional uncertainties caused by rene
204、wable energy generation that affect the short term,seasonal and long term LNG requirement.4.It is highly recommended to minimize the vulnerability of the natural gas supply and delivery infrastructure system minimizing the risks of any gas supply interruptions.Also,it is recommended to ensure the du
205、al fuel capability,including suitable fuel supply/storage arrangements locally for such secondary fuel,to ensure electricity supply security in case of disruption to LNG supply considering the degree of dependency on liquefied natural gas based generating capacity.5.Capacity shortage is observed in
206、during 2022 and 2023 period due to the already delayed major power projects and maintaining adequate generation capacity is important during 2022 to 2023 to alleviate short term capacity shortages.A contingency analysis is presented in this report indicating the minimum capacity requirement to maint
207、ain minimum reliability under different risk events for the first five-year period.Exact capacity requirement shall be assessed through the short term situational analysis.6.Implementation of the planned 3 x 200 MW pumped storage hydropower plant as a long term measure to enhance the flexibility and
208、 security of the system with high shares of renewable energy technologies Implementing the planned Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant performing necessary feasibility studies to enable the development of the planned wind and solar resources.6 Refer PUCSL letter in ANNEX 15.Development of new Coal capac
209、ity will not be carried out accordingly.Generation Expansion Plan 2021 E-15 7.Timely implementation of planned flexible thermal power plants ensuring flexible performance by both technical and contractual terms to facilitate the integration of indigenous renewable energy technology.Development of th
210、e planned flexible power plants with emphasized flexible characteristics is important to facilitate the variable renewable energy integration.8.Due to the intermittent and variable nature of VRE,the power system needs to have sufficient flexible power sources to ensure system stability and reliabili
211、ty.These flexible power plants should possess the fast start up,fast ramping and deloading capabilities to support the power system to manage the daily net load fluctuations typically seen with high VRE levels.9.Reviewing the present operating reserve policy of the system operation with dynamic,upwa
212、rd and downward requirements to provide additional regulation for the planned renewable energy capacities.10.Enhancing the grid support features of variable renewable energy projects including enhanced Ride through capabilities,Frequency Ramp Rate Control functions and it is recommended to periodica
213、lly review and upgrade the existing interconnection and operating codes/regulations based on detailed studies and up-to-date industry practices.11.It is recommended to streamline renewable energy development procedures to ensure faster implementation as well as strict compliance to interconnection c
214、odes.Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Ceylon Electricity Board(CEB),established by CEB Act,No.17 of 1969(as amended),has a statutory obligation under section 11 of the CEB Act to develop and maintain an efficient,coordinated and economical system of elect
215、ricity supply for the whole of Sri Lanka.In order to fulfil this legal obligation,CEB has been preparing Long Term Generation Expansion Plans for nearly four decades.Since power sector projects,both generation and transmission,has long gestation periods,it is important to identify and commence such
216、development activities early in order to cater to the growing demand for electricity,to cater to retirement of existing generating assets and to construct and refurbish high voltage transmission network infrastructure.As a result,Generation Plans are prepared for a 20 year period ahead.They are also
217、 updated once in two years to capture any changes to the economic and social landscape of the country since the last plan,to adopt to changes to the electricity sector requirements,and to adjust and compensate to the progress of ongoing power and network infrastructure development projects.Once a Lo
218、ng-Term Generation Expansion Plan is finalized,a corresponding Long Term Transmission Development Plan too is prepared to identify and commence the developments required in the transmission network to evacuate power from the existing and future generating plants and to cater to the growing demand fo
219、r electricity.As the flow of power along transmission lines is dependent both on the location of power plants and geographical spread of forecasted demand for electricity,a Long-Term Transmission Development Plan cannot be prepared unless a corresponding Long term generation Plan is prepared first.T
220、hus,the two activities are to be treated as complimentary.With the enactment of the Sri Lanka Electricity Act,No.20 of 2009 in April 2009,the electricity sector was brought under the regulatory purview of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka(PUCSL),established under the Public Utilities Comm
221、ission of Sri Lanka Act,No.35 of 2002.With such change in law,CEB was issued with a generation license,a transmission license and four distribution licenses,and the duty to ensure that there is sufficient capacity from generation plant to meet reasonable forecast demand for electricity was made a re
222、sponsibility of the Transmission Licensee.Subsequently,with the enactment of the Sri Lanka Electricity(Amendment)Act,No.31 of 2013 in August 2013,CEB,as the Transmission licensee,was required to prepare the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan,(referred to in the Act as Least Cost Long Term Generatio
223、n Expansion Plan),indicating the future electricity generating capacity requirements determined on the basis of least economic cost and meeting the technical and reliability requirements of the electricity network,and submit the same for the approval of PUCSL 1.Generation expansion planning studies
224、were carried out in order to develop the Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan as contained in this report.Such studies have considered the forecasted electricity demand growth,candidate generating technologies most suitable to provide the capacity Page 1-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 requirement,e
225、nvironmental and climate change considerations including obligations of the country,and declared government policies in arriving at this generation planning report.A typical generation planning exercise strives to add a balance between three main competing objectives,as illustrated in Figure 1.1 I.T
226、he security and reliability of electricity supply II.Sustainability III.Economics of supply and affordability Figure 1.1 Balance of competing objectives Thus,this generation planning study is conducted to achieve a balance of all three as much as possible,while adhering to limits and targets specifi
227、ed for any of the above objectives by way of policy or by legal and regulatory requirements.Accordingly,the planning studies carried out were based on the reliability criteria as published by the PUCSL in the Government Gazette No 2109/28 dated 2019-02-28 2,a requirement under section 43(8)of the El
228、ectricity Act,and the electricity sector specific government policy applicable as stated under section 5 of the Sri Lanka Electricity Act titled The General Policy Guidelines in Respect of the Electricity Industry 3.In addition,studies have also considered directions given in the National Energy Pol
229、icy and Strategies of Sri Lanka as published in the Government Gazette No 2135/61 dated 2019-08-09 4 and policy guidance given by the government.A generation planning study typically takes about ten months to be completed.Prior to planning studies,a comprehensive analysis is carried out to determine
230、 the renewable energy capacity that could be integrated into the expanding network.To coincide with the present planning window of 2022-2041,a similar study titled Renewable Energy Integration Study 2022-2031 was initiated in June 2020,and was conducted by a specially appointed team comprising engin
231、eers from the two planning teams(generation planning and transmission planning),the System Control and Renewable Energy Development branch.Results of such study have been considered as valuable inputs in preparing this Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2022-2041.The planning studies conducted to p
232、roduce this Long Term Generation Plan 2022-2041 have been carried out adhering to all the government policies that are binding on the sector as stipulated under the Electricity Act and has been duly issued to CEB,and the reliability criteria published by PUCSL.Any Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page
233、 1-3 future change to government policy and reliability criteria will be appropriately considered during the next planning cycle 2024-2043.The planning methodology,planning criteria and policy framework is explained in detail in the chapter 6 of this report.The primary objectives of the generation p
234、lanning studies conducted by CEB are,(a)To project the national long term electricity demand forecast for next 25 years(b)To identify the most suitable generating capacity mix and required grid support interventions to meet the forecasted demand for electricity at lowest economic cost while meeting
235、the reliability requirements and meeting the declared sector specific policies of the government as required under law.(c)To investigate techno economic feasibility of new alternate generating technologies to expand the generating system(d)To prepare the capital investment program for the expansion
236、of the generating system(e)To investigate the robustness of the economically optimum plan by analyzing its sensitivity to changes in the key input parameters.(f)To conduct scenario analysis to guide the government to consider different policy alternatives.The information presented in this report has
237、 been updated to December 2020 unless otherwise stated.1.2 Sri Lankas Economy The Sri Lankan economy did not exhibit a strong growth in real GDP during last six years(2015-2020).Due to the worldwide impact of Covid-19 pandemic,the economy encountered renewed challenges in 2020,further aggravating th
238、e situation.However,countrys economy is expected to rebound according to the projections of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.Nevertheless,the expected recovery and future economic growth trajectory contains a high level of uncertainty due to the still prevailing global pandemic.Thus,the same could also
239、 affect the forecasts made to electricity demand as contained in this report.Details of some demographic and economic indicators are given in Table 1.1.Table 1.1-Demographic and Economic Indicators of Sri Lanka Units 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mid-Year Population Millions 20.97 21.20 21.44 21.67
240、21.80 21.91 Population Growth Rate%0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.5 GDP Real Growth Rate%5 4.5 3.6 3.3 2.3-3.6 GDP/Capita(Market prices)US$3841 3886 4077 4079 3852 3682 Exchange Rate(Avg.)LKR/US$135.94 145.60 152.46 162.54 178.78 185.52 GDP Constant 2010 Prices Mill LKR 8,647,833 9,035,830 9,359,147 9,665,37
241、9 9,883,350 9,530,606 Source:Annual Report 2020,Central Bank of Sri Lanka Page 1-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 1.2.1 Electricity and Economy Historical electricity demand growth rate has shown to hold a direct correlation with the growth rate of the countrys economy.Figure 1.2 shows the yearly gr
242、owth rate of electricity demand and that of GDP from 2000 to 2020.Figure 1.2-Growth Rates of GDP and Electricity Sales 1.2.2 Economic Projections The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has forecasted the latest GDP growth rates in real terms for four consecutive years ahead,as published in the Annual Report
243、2020 5and Annual Report 2019 6 as reproduced in Table 1.2.Table 1.2-Forecast of GDP Growth Rate in Real Terms Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2019 Forecast 1.5 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.5 2020 Forecast 6.0 5.2 5.8 6.5 7.0 Source:Annual Reports 2019&2020,Central Bank of Sri Lanka -20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.0
244、15.020.02000200042005200620072008200920000192020Growth Rate(%)YearGDPElectricity Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-5 1.3 Sri Lankas Energy Sector Overall energy requirements of the country are ensured directly by primary energy sources such as biomass(
245、fuel wood)and coal,or by secondary sources such as electricity and refined petroleum products.The Energy Flow diagram as published by the Sri Lankan Sustainable Energy Authority is given in Figure 1.3.The energy flow diagram clearly shows the types of primary energy sources entered to the supply cha
246、in,their transition to secondary sources such as electricity and finished petroleum products at the middle and how they have ended up at different sectors of the economy.Figure 1.3 Energy Flow Diagram(2018)1.3.1 Energy Supply The primary energy supply of Sri Lanka consists of biomass,petroleum,coal,
247、major hydro and other renewable energy.The primary energy supply is dominated by biomass and petroleum.By end of 2018,petroleum turns out to be the major source of energy supply,which covers a share of 40.2%.The countrys petroleum supply is sourced through direct import of finished products and part
248、ly by processing imported crude oil.The only refinery in Sri Lanka,located in Sapugaskanda,converts imported crude oil to refined products to supply approximately half of the petroleum requirement of the country.There are also plans for expanding this refinery capacity.Apart from this,initiatives ha
249、ve been launched in towards oil exploration with the prime intention of harnessing potential petroleum resources in the Mannar Basin.Exploration license has been awarded to explore for oil and natural gas in the Mannar Basin off the north-west coast and drilling of the test wells has been carried ou
250、t.At present,natural gas has been discovered in Mannar basin(off shore from Kalpitiya Peninsula)with a potential of 70 mscfd.Discoverable gas amount of this reserve is estimated approximately 300 bcf.This may even extend beyond the potential of 2TCF with daily Source:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Aut
251、hority Page 1-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 extraction rates of 100 mscfd but further exploration should be carried out in order to verify these figures.Biomass or fuel wood,which is mainly a non-commercial fuel,provided approximately 36.2%of the countrys total energy supply.Biomass is the most w
252、idely available source of energy supply in the country.Due to the abundant availability,only a limited portion of the total biomass use is channeled through a commodity market and hence the value of the energy sourced by biomass is not properly accounted.Coal which is mainly imported for electricity
253、 generation accounted for 10.3%of the primary energy supply in year 2018.Hydro power accounted for 9.7%each from the total primary energy supply in year 2018.Hydropower is the main indigenous source of primary commercial energy in Sri Lanka.Estimated potential of hydro resource is about 2000 MW,of w
254、hich significant resource has already been harnessed.Further exploitation of hydro resources is becoming increasingly difficult owing to social and/or environmental impacts associated with large-scale development.Other renewable energy share accounted for 3.7%of total energy supply(wind,solar,biomas
255、s,small hydro)in year 2018.There is a considerable potential for wind and solar power development in the country.Steps have been initiated to harness the economical wind and solar potential in Sri Lanka in an optimal manner.The first commercial wind power plants were established in 2010 and the tota
256、l capacity of wind power plants by end of 2020 was 179 MW.The first large scale wind farm was commissioned in Mannar island in 2020.The first commercial solar power plants were commissioned in year 2016 and the total capacity of commercial solar power plants by end of 2020 was 67 MW and nearly 347 M
257、W of solar roof tops were also connected by end of 2020.Scattered developments of small scale solar power plants have been already initiated and feasibility studies were initiated to develop solar power plants in park concept.A minor portion of the biomass supply is used for power generation thoroug
258、h dendro,agricultural waste and municipal waste sources.In 2018 the primary energy supply consisted of Biomass(4629ktoe),Petroleum(5144ktoe),Coal(1313ktoe),Hydro(1239ktoe)and other renewable sources(475ktoe).The share of these in the gross primary energy supply from 2009 to 2018 is shown in Figure 1
259、.4.Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-7 Figure 1.4-Share of Gross Primary Energy Supply by Source 1.3.2 Energy Demand The energy demand is classified based on its energy source in to four categories.These are Biomass,Petroleum,Electricity and coal.The largest use of Biomass is in the domestic sec
260、tor for cooking purposes The total fossil fuel requirement of the country is for the transport,power generation,industry and other applications.In the past,the total demand for coal had been in the industries and railway transport sector.But with the commissioning of coal power plants in Norochchola
261、i,96%of the total coal imports have been used for electricity generation.The total energy demand by energy source over the recent past is shown in Table 1.3.The biomass,petroleum and coal demand figures presented are only in terms of final energy use and this does not include the fuels consumed in e
262、lectricity generation.0%20%40%60%80%100%200920001620172018Share%YearBiomassOther Renewable EnergyHydroPetroleumCoalSource:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Renewable Share Page 1-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Table 1.3 Energy Demand by Energy Source Year Biomass Petrole
263、um Electricity Coal PJ%PJ%PJ%PJ%2015 200.7 49.8 158.1 39.2 42.3 10.5 2.3 0.6 2016 194.3 45.7 183.2 43.1 45.8 10.8 2.1 0.5 2017 191.1 46.2 172.1 41.6 48.3 11.7 1.8 0.4 2018 191.4 46.2 170.0 41.0 50.8 12.3 2.0 0.5 The main sectors of energy demand can be categorized into Industry,Transport and househo
264、ld and commercial sector.The Sectorial energy consumption trend from 2009 to 2018 is shown in Figure 1.5.According to the above chart,household and commercial sector appears to be the largest sector in terms of energy consumption when all the traditional sources of energy are taken into account.Howe
265、ver,it illustrates that it is moving through a decreasing trend while the Transport sector shows an increasing trend.Figure 1.5-Gross Energy Consumption by Sectors including Non-Commercial Sources 24%24%24%25%25%26%31%24%24%26%25%27%28%29%29%29%29%36%36%33%51%49%48%47%46%45%41%40%39%41%0%20%40%60%80
266、%100%200920001620172018Share%YearIndustryTransportHousehold,commercial and othersSource:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-9 1.4 Electricity Sector 1.4.1 Global Electricity Sector The global electricity demand has been growing at an ave
267、rage annual growth rate of approximately 3%during the last two decades.Over the past three decades,worldwide electricity demand has been predominantly supplied by fossil fuel based thermal generation.However,the contribution from indigenous renewable energy source is on the rise manly driven by the
268、growth in solar PV and Wind resources followed by moderate growths in mini-hydro and biomass generation.Due to the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,global electricity demand is projected to fall by 2%and is forecasted to record its largest decline since the middle of 20th century.With the gra
269、dual recovery of the global economy,global electricity demand is expected to rebound,but starting with a modest growth in 2021.Over the years,coal power generation remained the largest source of electricity generation,contributing to approximately 40%of electricity generated globally.There is an ave
270、rage annual growth of 3%in electricity generated using coal during the past two decades,which is equivalent to the global average annual growth rate for electricity.Natural gas based power generation is the second most predominant energy source at present having a share of 23%out of electricity gene
271、rated.This share has been increasing from 17%(in 2000)to 23%,(in 2018),with a steady growth during past two decades.In contrast the global oil based power generation is following a steep decline and the percentage of electricity generation from oil has decreased from 8%(in 2000)to 3%(in 2018).During
272、 the same time period the global nuclear power based generation remained at the same level.However,the nuclear energy share has declined from 17%to 10%of total electricity production as the shares of other resources increase.The total renewable energy generation worldwide,including large storage hyd
273、ro power,has increased from 19%-26%during the period from 1999-2018.While the hydro energy share has roughly remained constant,the non-hydro renewable share has risen from 1.5%to 9.6%,owing to the rapid growth in solar and wind technologies.The annual electricity produced from solar has risen by 46%
274、in past two decades while wind energy has risen by 25%.World electricity generation during the last twenty years is summarized in Figure 1.6 and world electricity generation by source as a percentage is shown in Figure 1.7 Page 1-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Figure 1.6 World Electricity Generat
275、ion(GWh)Figure 1.7 World Electricity Generation by Source as Percentage 050000000000020000000250000003000000002002200420062008200162018GWhCoalOilGasNuclearHydroSolar PVWindOther RE0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%920007200920017CoalOi
276、lGasNuclearHydroORESource:International Energy Agency Statistics Source:International Energy Agency Statistics Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-11 1.4.2 Local Electricity Sector 1.4.2.1 Overview The countrys electricity demand has grown at an average rate or 5.7%during last five years.The maxim
277、um recorded peak demand to date of 2,717 MW was recorded in(month)2020.Total net electricity generation in 2020 was 15,714 GWh.At the end of 2020,Sri Lanka had a total installed generating capacity,including rooftop solar,of(approximately)4,615 MW.This included 2,447 MW of renewable energy based gen
278、erating capacity and 2,168 MW of thermal capacity.The renewable energy based generation capacity includes major hydro,mini hydro,solar,wind and biomass technologies and the thermal power generation fleet currently includes reciprocating engines,open cycle and combined cycle turbines and steam plants
279、 operated on imported fuel sources of coal and oil.However not all power plants have the capability of providing firm power and hence further sub categorized as dispatchable power plants and non dispatchable power plants.All thermal power plants are capable to operate as dispatchable power plants.Th
280、e major hydro power plants are dispatchable but with constraints due to hydrological conditions and multipurpose usages while other renewable energy plants are inherently non dispatchable in nature.At present the total dispatchable generation capacity is 3551 MW while the balance of 1064 MW from ORE
281、 are non dispatchable.Steps are underway to introduce natural gas to the primary fuel mix in the near future.With the introduction of natural gas,the thermal fuel mix is expected to be diversified even further.natural gas introduction is through the imported Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG)and establishin
282、g the necessary infrastructure is underway.A Floating Storage and Regasification Unit(FSRU)is planned to be established offshore at Kerawalapitiya.to provide regasified liquid natural gas to operate power plants at Kerawalapitiya and Kelanithissa.With the introduction of a very high proportion of re
283、newable energy based generation as included in this report,the fuel mix used for power generation is expected to be further diversified with a major shift from import dependent commercial fuels to indigenous sources.1.4.2.2 Access to Electricity Sri Lanka has achieved near 100%electrification by ext
284、ending the transmission and distribution network throughout the country,thus providing access to electricity for every citizen.The transmission and distribution losses too were brought down gradually from 21.4%in 2000 to 9.08%in 2020.However,the electricity network is required to be expanded continu
285、ously to cater to the growing demand for electricity and to relieve certain bottlenecks in the transmission network.In order to facilitate industrial growth,grid substation and transmission capacities are to be continuously enhanced and new generating capacity is to be added to facilitate the unhind
286、ered economic growth and development.Page 1-12 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 1.4.2.3 Electricity Consumption Figure 1.8-Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2001-2020)The sectorial electricity consumption(tariff category wise)from 2001 to 2020 is shown in Figure 1.8 Figure 1.9 gives the share of se
287、ctorial electricity consumption in 2020.The combined consumption of the industrial and commercial sectors(commercial sector consist of the General Purpose,Hotel,Government tariff categories)is higher than domestic sector consumption,a favorable attribute for an economy with ambitious GDP growth proj
288、ections.However due to the COVID pandemic,in year 2020 the combined electricity consumption of the industrial and commercial sectors has decreased,while the domestic sector consumption has increased.Figure 1.9-Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2020)The average per capita electricity consumption i
289、n year 2020,was 652 kWh.This is a slight decrease to 670 kWh in 2019.The same has been generally rising steadily;except during the period 2007 to 2009 and during 2012 and 2013.Figure 1.10 illustrates the variation to per capita electricity consumption of Sri Lanka between 2001 to 2020.225
290、94285930563264024040553737424549563677276848994989342499429372352734468344430542265249026403.4102103.451331321291
291、3230060008000400002200320042005200620072008200920000192020GWhYearDomesticReligiousIndustrialCommercialStreet LightingDomestic,40.7%Religious,0.6%Industrial,31.1%Commercial,26.6%Street Lighting,0.9%Generation Expa
292、nsion Plan-2021 Page 1-13 1.4.2.4 Cost of Electricity Low electricity price is an essential pre requisite to keep costs of production of both goods and services produced in the country low and hence be competitive in international markets.In order to keep the electricity prices low,it is mandatory t
293、o keep the electricity costs too low as artificially keeping the electricity tariffs at below costs is not sustainable and lead to wasteful use.Both the fixed cost and the variable cost of producing and supplying a unit of electricity and losses decides the final cost of electricity supplied at end
294、user level.The fixed cost component consists of the fixed generation cost,the costs pertaining to transmission and distribution of electricity,while the variable cost component is mainly determined by the cost of fuel used for thermal generation and variable energy charge paid to renewable sources.D
295、ue to different hydrological conditions,the cost of generating a unit of electricity could significantly vary over the years.The same also could be heavily impacted when market prices of imported fuels that are used to generate from thermal sources fluctuates.Generation planning studies are carried
296、out to find the most economical technology mix under various hydrological conditions occurring in different probabilities.Figure 1.11 illustrates how the actual cost of electricity(at selling point)has changed from year 2012 to 2020.It can be seen that unit cost of electricity at selling point has i
297、ncreased when expressed in local currency(Rs/kWh)but had remained stable when expressed in USDs(US Cts/kWh).289300322348369394414 416 4562665067065200500600700800200042005200620072008200920000192020kWh/PersonFigure 1.10 Sri
298、 Lanka Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2001-2020)Page 1-14 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Figure 1.11 Unit cost of Electricity(2012-2020)1.4.2.5 Electricity Demand and Supply Sri Lankas peak power demand for electricity has been growing at an average annual rate of around 3.4%during the past 20 y
299、ears,and this trend is expected to continue in the foreseeable future.Countrys daily electricity demand profile has three distinguishable periods classified as the night peak,day peak and off peak.Though,the night peak records the highest electricity demand at present,the day time demand is expected
300、 to become prominent in years to come.The total installed capacity consists of both dispatchable and non dispatchable forms of generation sources.Ensuring adequate dispatchable capacity from both thermal and major hydro resources has become more important with the growing peak demand and the firm ca
301、pacity shortfalls experienced in dry hydrological conditions.By the end of 2020,the total installed capacity was 4,612 MW including non dispatchable power plants(small hydro,wind,ground mounted and rooftop solar PV and biomass)of capacity The growth of the installed capacity and peak demand over the
302、 last twenty years are given in the Table 1.4 and illustrated in Figure 1.12.(The rooftop solar installed capacity is excluded in Table 1.4 and Figure 1.12)18.54 13.12 15.32 11.09 12.42 13.34 11.76 13.49 11.43 23.66 16.94 20.00 15.07 18.08 20.34 19.12 24.12 21.21 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.0020
303、001820192020Unit Cost at Selling PointYearUnit Cost Uscts/kWhUnit Cost Rs/kWh Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-15 Table 1.4-Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Year Installed Capacity(MW)Capacity Growth (%)Peak Demand(MW)Peak Demand Growth (%)2001 1,874 5.9%1,445 2.9 2002 1
304、,893 1.0%1,422-1.6 2003 2,180 13.2%1,516 6.6 2004 2,280 5.6%1,563 3.1 2005 2,411 4.2%1,748 11.8 2006 2,434 0.9%1,893 8.3 2007 2,444 0.4%1,842-2.7 2008 2,645 7.6%1,922 4.3 2009 2,684 1.5%1,868-2.8 2010 2,818 4.8%1,955 4.7 2011 3,141 10.3%2,163 10.6 2012 3,312 5.2%2,146-0.8 2013 3,355 1.3%2,164 0.8 20
305、14 3,932 14.7%2,152-0.6 2015 3,850-2.1%2,283 6.1 2016 4,018 4.2%2,453 7.4 2017 4,087 1.7%2,523 2.9 2018 4,046-1.0%2,616 3.7 2019 4,217 4.1%2,668 1.9 2020 4,265 1.1%2,717 1.8 Last 5 year avg.growth 2.01%3.40%Last 10 year avg.growth 3.93%3.18%Last 20 year avg.growth 4.22%3.17%Figure 1.12 Total Install
306、ed Capacity and Peak Demand 0400800024002800320036004000440048008042005200620072008200920000192020Installed Capacity&Peak Demand(MW)YearNon Dispatachble Capacity MWDispatachble Capacity MWPeak Demand MW Page 1-16 Generation
307、 Expansion Plan-2021 The Figure 1.13 below illustrates the past development of other renewable energy sources including Mini hydro,Wind,Solar PV and Biomass.Solar PV led the growth in capacity in recent years followed by wind capacities.Moderate growth recoded from Mini-hydro and Biomass Capacities
308、Figure 1.13 Other Renewable Energy Capacity Development Electricity generation of the country was predominantly 100%from hydropower until Mid-nineties.However,with the growth in electricity demand during the last 20 years and the limited potential to develop new large hydropower resources,the power
309、generation mix in the country has shifted to a mixed hydrothermal system.Relatively high share of oil based power generation still exists in the present generation mix due to the growing demand,hydrological variations and delays in implementing other major power projects which has a significant impa
310、ct on the cost of generation.In the year 2020,nearly 37%of the generation share came from coal based generation and another 37%came from renewable energy based generation.Electricity Generation during the last twenty-five years is summarized in Table 1.5 and illustrated in Figure 1.14.40748510811813
311、97264288307342354394433437778309404040000000005775000000000042860080042005200620072008200920000192020Capacity(MW)YearMini hydrowindBiomassSolar Bulksolar roo
312、ftop Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-17 Table 1.5-Electricity Generation 1996-2020 Year Hydro Generation Other Renewable Thermal Generation Self-Generation&Small Islands Total GWh%GWh%GWh%GWh%GWh 1996 3,233 72.0 3 0.1 1,102 24.5 152 3.4 4,490 1997 3,426 67.1 4 0.1 1,441 28.2 235 4.6 5,107 1998
313、 3,892 69.1 6 0.1 1,620 28.8 114 2.0 5,632 1999 4,135 67.5 21 0.3 1,871 30.6 97 1.6 6,125 2000 3,138 46.3 46 0.7 3,437 50.7 158 2.3 6,780 2001 3,030 46.2 68 1 3,361 51.2 105 1.6 6,564 2002 2,575 37.4 107 1.6 4,074 59.1 136 2 6,892 2003 3,175 42 124 1.6 4,263 56.4 0 0 7,562 2004 2,739 33.8 208 2.6 5,
314、051 62.3 115 1.4 8,113 2005 3,158 36.3 282 3.2 5,269 60.5 0 0 8,709 2006 4,272 45.9 349 3.7 4,694 50.4 0 0 9,314 2007 3,585 36.8 347 3.6 5,800 59.6 0 0 9,733 2008 3,683 37.5 438 4.5 5,697 58 0 0 9,819 2009 3,338 34 552 5.6 5,914 60.3 0 0 9,803 2010 4,969 46.7 731 6.9 4,948 46.5 0 0 10,649 2011 3,999
315、 35.2 725 6.4 6,629 58.4 2.9 0 11,356 2012 2,710 23.1 736 6.3 8,280 70.6 1.4 0 11,727 2013 5,990 50.3 1,179 9.9 4,729 39.7 0 0 11,898 2014 3,632 29.5 1,217 9.9 7,466 60.6 0 0 12,316 2015 4,904 37.5 1,467 11.2 6,718 51.3 0 0 13,090 2016 3,481 24.6 1,160 8.2 9,507 67.2 0 0 14,148 2017 3,059 20.8 1,464
316、 10 10,148 69.2 0 0 14,671 2018 5,149 33.8 1,715 11.2 8,390 55 2.4 0 15,257 2019 3,784 23.8 1,761 11.1 10,373 65.1 18.7 0.1 15,937 2020 3,911 24.9 1,866 11.9 9,933 63.2 4.2 0 15,714 Last 5 year av.Growth 6.2%10.1%3.8%Last 10 year av.Growth 11.6%11.4%4.0%Last 20 year av.Growth 16.2%7.9%4.3%Note:Rooft
317、op solar self-consumption is excluded and rooftop solar(export)only included from year 2019 onwards.Page 1-18 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Figure 1.14-Generation Share in the Recent Past Sri Lankan electricity system has been able to maintain the total renewable energy share between 30%-60%during
318、recent past.Major Hydro contribution has varied notably depending on the hydrological conditional and the other renewable energy share has been increasing steadily.The total renewable energy share varied over the past fifteen years are shown in Figure 1.15.This clean energy share is expected to incr
319、ease further in the future with the planned renewable energy development.Figure 1.15 Renewable Share in the Recent Past 02000400060008000400099692000200042005200620072008200920000192020Generation(GWh)YearOil GenerationCoal
320、GenerationHydro GenerationSelf Generation&Small islandsOther Renewable0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0040005000600070008000200620072008200920000192020PercentageEnergy(Gwh)Major HydroOther RETotal RE Percentage Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-19 1.5 Emissions
321、 The total CO2 emission of Sri Lanka in 2018 was 20.6million tons,which is only 0.06%of the total world CO2 emissions.The absolute emission levels as well as the per capita emission levels of Sri Lanka remains low compared to the overall global average and when compared to many regional countries,co
322、untries having similar economies and with the developed world as tabulated in Table 1.6.Table 1.6-Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Country kg CO2/2015US$of GDP kg CO2/2015US$of GDP Adjusted to PPP Tons of CO2 per Capita Total CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Sri Lanka 0.23 0.07 0.95 20.6 P
323、akistan 0.61 0.17 0.92 194.1 India 0.89 0.23 1.71 2,307.8 Bangladesh 0.34 0.12 0.51 82.0 Indonesia 0.54 0.16 2.03 542.9 Malaysia 0.65 0.24 7.23 228.0 Thailand 0.54 0.19 3.47 241.0 China 0.71 0.40 6.84 9,528.2 Japan 0.23 0.20 8.55 1,080.7 France 0.12 0.11 4.51 303.5 Denmark 0.09 0.11 5.53 32.0 German
324、y 0.20 0.17 8.40 696.1 Switzerland 0.05 0.06 4.20 35.7 United Kingdom 0.11 0.12 5.30 352.4 Russia 1.12 0.43 10.99 1,587.0 USA 0.25 0.25 15.03 4,921.1 Canada 0.34 0.33 15.25 565.2 Australia 0.29 0.32 15.32 382.9 South Africa 1.31 0.57 7.41 428.0 Qatar 0.51 0.26 30.95 87.0 Egypt 0.59 0.19 2.27 223.6 B
325、razil 0.23 0.13 1.94 406.3 World 0.41 0.26 4.42 33,513 Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2020 Edition)7-2018 Data Page 1-20 Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Globally,electricity sector is the major contributor of CO2 emissions out of total energy use or fuel combustion.However,in Sri Lanka
326、,the transport sector is the largest contributor to emissions whereas electricity sector comes second.The sector wise contributions to emissions of Sri Lanka in the recent past is tabulated in Table 1.7 and sector wise comparison of CO2 emissions of Sri Lanka and the world in 2018 is shown graphical
327、ly in Figure 1.16.Table 1.7 Sri Lanka CO2 Emissions in the Recent Past Year Overall CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions (Million tons)2013 13.74 4.04 2014 16.74 6.79 2015 19.5 6.8 2016 20.9 8.7 2017 23.1 9.9 2018 20.6 8.1 Figure 1.16-CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2020 42
328、%5%18%25%10%39%4%48%9%(a)World (a)Sri Lanka Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2020 Edition)7-2018 Data Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2020 Edition)7-2018 Data Generation Expansion Plan-2021 Page 1-21 1.6 Implementation of the Expansion Plan After a long term generation exp
329、ansion plan is prepared and approval is received,a corresponding long term transmission development plan is prepared for facilitating the transmission infrastructure for the anticipated generation expansion.The last generation plan that received the approval of the PUCSL was the LTGEP 2018-2037.Thus
330、,the last transmission development plan that is available is the Long Term Transmission Development Plan 2018-2027,which was prepared in correspondence to the LTGEP 2018-2037.As no transmission development plan is available to commence transmission development beyond 2027,obtaining the approval to t
331、he generation plan 2022-2041,without delay,is critically important.Since 2013,when the approval of PUCSL was made mandatory to Long Term Generation Expansion Plans,the three generation plans submitted for PUCSL approval had taken over 13 months for approval,due to varying reasons.The last LTGEP 2020
332、-2039 could not obtain the approval even after 20 months,before it was completely abandoned and preparation of this new plan was commenced.As generation plans are prepared once in two years,and as preparation of a plan itself takes more than ten months,securing the approval within a reasonable time
333、frame is important.As per the Sri Lanka Electricity Act,a power plant cannot be added to the system unless the same is identified first in an approved LTGEP.As a result,if a power plant that is identified in an approved generation plan is cancelled due to some reason,another power plant cannot be brought to replace it unless it is included in a generation plan and approval is obtained.Further,as t