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1、1World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041World Air Cargo Forecast 202220411World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Foreword 2Executive Summary 3Air Cargo Industry Overview 4Regional ForecastsAfrica 19Domestic China 29East Asia and North America 33Europe and East Asia 40Europe and North America 46IntraEast Asia an
2、d Oceania 51Intra-Europe 57Latin America and Europe 62Latin America and North America 69Middle East 76North America 82 Russia and Central Asia 90South Asia 95Freighter Fleet Forecast 101Forecast Methodology 109Glossary 111Appendix 112Table of Contents2World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Boeings World A
3、ir Cargo Forecast(WACF)is a biennial addendum to the Commercial Market Outlook,focused on a comprehensive and long-term view of the air cargo market.The forecast offers in-depth analysis of the global air trade markets,including trends,regional market developments,and the worlds freighter fleet grow
4、th.The tumultuous effects of the pandemic in the last two years have upended expectations and caused challenges for long-term planning and analysis.However,the overall aviation and aerospace industries remain resilient,and that extends to the air cargo market.Our intention for this forecast is to ar
5、m our customers,our stakeholders,and the industry at large with valuable information that helps them make the best decisions for the future of air cargo and global trade.We hope the 2022 WACF meets that vital need.We couldnt have done this without our skilled contributors,who offer decades of expert
6、ise in market analysis,trend forecasting,and air cargo traffic analysis:Anime Benkirane Cristina Cavero Andrew Chuang Josh Collingwood Tom Crabtree Kimberly Eagle Sharon Felix Gregg Gildemann Tom Hoang Calvin Jin Jayden Lee Deanna Leingang Christa Roth Wendy Sowers Caroline Young The next WACF updat
7、e will appear in fourth-quarter 2024.We welcome any questions or comments.Please reach out to us at:Boeing Commercial Airplanes P.O.Box 3707,MC 21-33 Seattle,WA 98124-2207 USA Tom Hoang Gregg Gildemann Josh Collingwood Calvin Jin Foreword3World Air Cargo Forecast 202220414.3%AnnualGrowth4.4%4.9%2.6%
8、2.3%East AsiaN.AmericaTop Air Cargo Traffic Flows Forecast(70%of Global Traffc)East AsiaEuropeEuropeN.AmericaNorth AmericaIntra-East AsiaDomestic China5.8%2004060802120222041Revenue Tonne Kilometers(Billions)50%long-term share of air cargo traffic carried by freighters8%freighter share of
9、 the commercial airplane fleet 4.1%annual air cargo traffic growth through 2041950production freighter deliveries by 20411,825freighter conversion deliveries by 20411,600global freighter fleet growth by 2041Executive Summary4World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Air Cargo Overview5World Air Cargo Forecas
10、t 20222041A Unique Value PropositionAir cargo is one part of global goods distribution networks.Across all modes,shippers seek shipments arrive at their destination on time,undamaged and at a reasonable price,regardless of transport mode.Different transport modesroad,rail,maritime and aircan often m
11、ove the same commodities.In domestic and intra-regional markets,ground transport typically dominates.However,express and distribution networks as well as supply chain planners often see air as part of the network.For intercontinental freight,shippers usually have only two choices:air and maritime.Ma
12、ritime transport offers the primary benefit,low cost;air transport offers the benefits of speed and reliability.Maritime for Tonnage,Air Cargo for ValueMeasured in tonnes of goods moved,the maritime transport industry is much larger than the air cargo industry.In 2021,the world maritime industry car
13、ried an estimated 11.1 billion tonnes,compared to 60.9 million tonnes of air cargo.By weight,86%of the worlds maritime trade is in raw materials and other bulk items.Most of these commodities,such as oil,metal ores,and grains,are low in value,not time sensitive,and shipped in specialized vessels.The
14、se cargoes cannot be directly compared to the high-value,dry commodities associated with air transport.However,while air cargo accounts for less than 1%of the worlds trade tonnage,the high value of these goods means it is responsible for about 35%of the value of all globally shipped goods.Air Cargo
15、OverviewWorld Trade Focuses on Bulk CommoditiesSource:S&P Global GTA41%Dry BulkIron and ores of other metals,coal,grains,cement32%Liquid BulkCrude oil,petroleum products,liquefed petroleum gas,liquefed natural gas,other liquids14%Containership CommoditiesConsumer goods,machinery,textiles,fruits,vege
16、tables13%General CargoWood products,perishables,automobiles,specialty chemicals1%Air CommoditiesPerishables,pharmaceuticals,high-value electronics6World Air Cargo Forecast 2022204972006421012Tonnes Loaded(billions)Containerized CargoMain Bulk CommoditiesNon-container
17、ized CargoTanker Cargo3.2%growth4Jan-19Ratio of Air Cargo:Containership Transport PricingJul-1912.311.612.813.112.915.811.815.429.120.416.813.8Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22161282024Air is typically 1015 times more costly than containership transportAir cargo pricing more competativeSpike at o
18、nset of pandemic28326.76.67.03.83.96.25.04.96.05.7Modal CompetitionContainership dynamics influence air cargo markets due to modal competition.Containerized cargo is the maritime sector that most closely corresponds to air cargo.While the majority of maritime cargo is low-value bulk,containerships c
19、arry some of the same commodities as air cargo does,while offering a low-cost alternative for goods that do not require high speed and peak reliability.Before the COVID-19 pandemic,air cargo service generally cost 10 to 15 times more than containership cargo per unit weight,but it offered shorter tr
20、ansit times and higher reliability.Goods shipped by air are typically high in value,time-sensitive,and perishable,so they require speedy,reliable transit.Due to operational challenges in shipping since the pandemics onset,the air-to-maritime cost ratio has dropped by more than half,with mid-2022 air
21、 service rates only 4 to 8 times higher than maritime,even as air cargo yields nearly doubled pre-pandemic levels.Containerships Increase Maritime Market ShareAir Cargo Service:More Competitive Than EverSource:CRSLNote:Comparison of East-West Air Freight Price Index and Drewrys East/West Container F
22、reight Rate Index(converted into cost per kg basis:basis 4,500kg per teu)Source:Drewry Maritime ResearchAir Cargo Overview7World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041While both maritime shipping and air cargo yields are normalizing as capacity challenges recede,maritime yields may remain elevated due to indus
23、try consolidation.In 2000,the top 10 containership operators handled 62%of the worlds shipping capacity.In 2022,that share rose to 86%.Requirements Vary,Air Cargo RespondsVarying requirements drive a range of air cargo services.From an end users perspective,general freight and express offerings are
24、fairly easy to distinguish in terms of commodity and time-definiteness.However,from a business-model perspective,the lines between express and general air cargo continue to blur.Traditional providers are expanding their time-definite offerings,while express carriers,freight airlines,and postal autho
25、rities often provide general cargo service.Ultimately,cargo customers benefit from increased service options and lower prices,as competing services enter the market.International Express is BoomingInternational express growth is outpacing the overall air cargo market.The international express market
26、 grew at a healthy average rate of 7%per year between 2011 and 2021.International express traffic grew 10%in both 2020 and 2021.Higher-than-average annual growth boosted the express share of international air cargo traffic from 4.1%in 1992 to 13.4%in 2008.The international express share remained at
27、about 13%of total international traffic during the 20082010 global financial crisis,but share growth resumed in 2011,and market share reached 21%in 2021.The Containership Top 10 ConsolidateTop 10 leading providers now control 86%of capacity deployedGeneral Freight Compared to ExpressSource:OAG May S
28、chedule SampleSource:OAG May Schedule SampleAir Cargo OverviewExpress 21%of international air cargo traffc Includes frst mile pickup and last mile delivery Total control of logistics fow from shipper to consignee Optimized air network around main and regional hubs Extensive ground network Usually do
29、cuments and small packagesGeneral Freight 79%of international air cargo traffc Capacity is sold to freight forwarders Responsible for moving freight from airport to airport Usually refers to larger,bulky shipments (more than 70 kg)ShippersOriginExport CustomsAir CarrierImportCustomsDestinationConsig
30、neesGeneral FreightExpress5200162021Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units(TEU)(millions)%of Total Capacity2015102550%40%30%80%70%60%90%Top 10 OperatorsOther OperatorsTop 10 Share of Capacity8World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041General Freight Remains StrongGeneral freight transport comprises the majo
31、rity of total world air cargo,including all goods shipped by air except mail products.General freight comprises 81%of worldwide revenue tonne-kilometers,and is integral to the global supply chain worldwide.Carriers specializing in general freight generated half of the worlds air cargo industry reven
32、ues in 2021.E-Commerce Distribution Networks ExpandRapid expansion in e-commerce is expected to boost air cargo growth.The complex logistics of e-commerce rely heavily on local postal systems,express networks,and,in some cases,extensive insourced distribution networks managed by retailers.Air cargo
33、packages are generally not identified specifically as e-commerce by shippers,and airmail shipments are typically bundled in bags with assorted documents and parcels.However,it is clear that e-commerce is revolutionizing customer expectations and air cargo logistics.Global e-commerce revenues are exp
34、ected to more than double pre-pandemic levels by 2026,reaching$8.1 trillionup from$3.4 trillion in 2019,and five times higher than the$1.5 trillion spent in 2015.While domestic e-commerce business is often supported by large ground networks,growth in cross-border e-commerce,as well as emerging marke
35、ts without well-established postal and ground networks,will promote an increased role for air cargo.Express Carrier Air Cargo Share GrowingSource:Cargo Facts Consulting,IATA,ICAO,US Department of TransportationGlobal E-Commerce Revenues Expected to Be More Than Double Pre-Pandemic by 2024Source:eMar
36、keter June 2022Air Cargo Overview200050200250RTKS(billions)International Freight and MailInternational Express20022F2023F2024F2025F2026F642810Global E-commerce sales in USD(trillions)$3.4$4.5$5.2$5.7$6.3$6.9$7.5$8.19World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041While e-commerce i
37、s a global phenomenon,market size and growth vary by country.China represents the largest e-commerce market in the world,after overtaking the United States in 2013.In 2021,the Chinese market surpassed$2 trillion,more than double the United States market,which is estimated at$960 billion.The European
38、 market was roughly one third the size of Chinas market,at$665 billion,in 2021.While currently much smaller,many emerging markets such as India and Brazil are now seeing high growth and rapid network expansion.Airline Business Models VaryAirlines adopt business models tailored to specific air cargo
39、markets.Air cargo operators fall into four main categories:Belly-only operators provide air cargo capability within existing passenger networks.Cargo specialists provide dedicated main-deck freighter capability for general freight,charter operations,and specialized loading and carriage capabilities.
40、Combination carriers leverage both dedicated main-deck freighters and the belly capacity of extensive passenger networks to provide reliable air connections,particularly to and from home markets and hubs.Express carriers operate main-deck freighter fleets of all sizes to provide time-definite servic
41、es as well as general air cargo capability.Express carriers typically utilize standard body and medium-widebody freighters to support their hub operations.Air Cargo OverviewChinas E-Commerce Market:Worlds Largest2021 E-Commerce Revenues Source:OAG May Schedule SampleChinaEuropean UnionUSAUKJapanSout
42、hKoreaIndiaCanadaRussiaBrazil1,7501,5001,2501,0007505002502,0002,250USD(billions)$2,029$960$496$169$144$121$68$44$19$1610World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Freighters Are IndispensableFreighters are critical for airlines competing in air cargo markets.While nearly half of the worlds air cargo has hist
43、orically been carried in the bellies of passenger airplanes,freighters are a key component of the customized scheduling and operations flexibility that many air cargo customers need.As a result,airlines with main-deck freighters in their fleets earn 90%of the air cargo industrys revenue.While increa
44、singly capable widebody passenger airplanes helped the air cargo industry grow in the decade preceding the pandemic,we expect dedicated freighters to continue to carry at least 50%of the worlds air cargo traffic,even after long-haul passenger networks recover to pre-pandemic levels and beyond.There
45、are several key reasons for freighter preference in air cargo flows:Most passenger-belly capacity does not serve key cargo trade routes.Twin-aisle passenger schedules often do not meet shipper timing needs.Freight forwarders prefer palletized capacity,which is not available on single-aisle aircraft.
46、Passenger bellies cannot transport hazardous materials and project cargo,two important sectors in air cargo flows.Payload-range considerations on passenger airplanes may limit cargo carriage,increasing the risk that cargo will fail to arrive on time.The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance o
47、f main-deck freighters in the global air transportation system.With high air cargo yields and greatly reduced long-haul international networks,conditions were favorable for many airlines to use passenger widebody fleets for cargo-only operations,in order to generate much-needed cash flow and industr
48、y capacity.These“preighters”replaced some of the capacity shortfall,and even(in some cases)generated quarterly profits for carriers,despite minimal passenger operations.While long-haul passenger operations are still recovering,enough passenger capacity has returned to most markets that almost all pr
49、eighter operations have been discontinued.In normal times,airplanes generate more revenue in passenger service.However,the experience of the past two years has highlighted the value of cargo operations.For airlines looking to diversify risk and operations coming out of the pandemic,that experience h
50、as provided an incentive to incorporate cargo operations in their network and fleet planning.Freighters Critical to Air Cargo CompetitionAirlines operating freighters generate 90%of industry cargo revenuesPassenger Widebody Freighter Capacity Vacates the MarketPreighter share of scheduled air cargo
51、capacitySource:Cirium,US Department of Transportation,Airline dataSource:IATAAir Cargo Overview2021$170B90%Express CarrierCombination CarrierAll CargoPassenger Belly Only38%41%11%10%Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-2220%15%10%5%25%30%11World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Near-Term DynamicsAir cargo ca
52、pacity and yield trends were severely disrupted by the pandemic,but are beginning to see a return to longer-term trends.Before the pandemic,nearly 50%of air cargo worldwide was transported in widebody passenger cargo holds.This capacity virtually disappeared in March,2020,as passenger widebody servi
53、ce was suspended globally.Freighter operators responded to this disruption by operating at above-normal utilization levels,delaying freighter retirements,and bringing new and parked airplanes into their fleets to compensate for the cargo-hold shortfall.While overall air cargo capacity has regained 2
54、019 levels,the ratio of main-deck freighter capacity to belly capacity remains elevated,with nearly two thirds of all air cargo capacity being carried on main decks,as long-haul passenger networks continue to rebuild.In the decade prior to the pandemic,air cargo yields averaged a 3%annual decline.Fa
55、lling oil prices in 2014,declining fuel surcharges,and trade dynamics contributed to the softer yield environment.Main-Deck Freighter Share Still ElevatedAir Cargo Yields Climbed Rapidly in 2020 and 2021,Decoupling From Passenger YieldsSource:FlightRadar24 Week 1444 of 2022 compared to Week 1444 of
56、2019Source:AAPA,IATA,ICAO,US DOT,Airline data,BoeingAir Cargo OverviewCargo Capacity Index,2019=100FreighterPassenger WB BellyTrans PacifcTrans AtlanticAsiaEuropeIntra Asia362040020160Yield Index,2006=100Air CargoPassenger7114812World Air Cargo Forecast 20
57、222041During the pandemic,air cargo capacity disruption,strong air cargo demand,and congested supply chains all boosted air cargo yields well above long-term average rates.In 2021,some flows saw rates that tripled pre-pandemic averages.Yields are now starting to fall as supply chains and long-haul p
58、assenger networks recover,bringing air cargo belly capacity back into the market.However,rates in the third quarter of 2022 are still roughly double the pre-pandemic averages.Since March,2022,higher fuel prices have contributed to these elevated levels,but the overall supply-demand balance continues
59、 to be a key factor in bringing additional capacity needs back into air cargo markets.With air cargo traffic volumes now running near pre-pandemic levels,and yields elevated,global air cargo revenues have reached all-time highs.In 2021,air cargo revenues hit$170 billion,up from$100 billion in 2019.C
60、ombination and all-cargo carriers have seen the largest increases,with both segments roughly doubling their 2019 revenues in 2021,while revenues for express and belly-only carriers increased roughly 45%compared to pre-pandemic levels.Global Yields Easing,But Still HighAir Cargo Revenues Exceed Pre-P
61、andemic LevelsPre-Pandemic=March 2018 to February 2020|Pandemic=March 2020 to February 2022|Post-Pandemic=March 2022 to present Source:IATA CargoISAir Cargo Overview200001920202021$90,000$120,000$30,000$60,000$150,000$180,000USD(millions)Combination CarrierExpress Ca
62、rrierAll CargoBelly OnlyGlobalTrans-PacifcTrans-Atlantic$1.00/kg$2.00/kg$3.00/kgUSD per Kilogram$4.00/kg$5.00/kg$6.00/kgEur-Asia+108%$3.82/kg+79%$3.29/kg$1.84/kg+127%$5.50/kg+89%$4.59/kg$2.43/kg+99%$2.97/kg+101%$2.99/kg$1.49/kg+142%$4.77/kg+78%$3.52/kg$1.97/kgPost-PandemicPandemicPre-Pandemic13World
63、 Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Long-Term DynamicsThe global economy and world trade have demonstrated long-term resilience despite near-term challenges.It has been a tumultuous two and a half years since the COVID-19 pandemic brought most activity to a halt.The shock turned out to be very deep,but it w
64、as short-lived by historical standards.After dropping 9%between fourth-quarter 2019 and fourth-quarter 2020,global GDP regained its pre-crisis peak by the first quarter of 2021.Global trade in goods made an even more impressive comeback.Initially disrupted by production shutdowns and uncertainties,t
65、he exchange of goods resumed quickly.Medical goods and protective equipment moved around the globe and,as lockdowns took their toll on in-person service activities,consumers turned to purchases of goods instead.Industrial production and global trade were higher than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.Gr
66、owth continued for the global goods trade in 2021 and into 2022,as consumer spending remained robust and producing industries invested and expanded.As a result,the volume of global trade was more than 8%higher in fourth-quarter 2022 than in fourth-quarter 2019,and it surpassed the previous all-time
67、high of 2018.However,as 2022 drew to a close,the outlook for growth and trade became much less certain.Strong demand for goods created friction in supply chains,leading to price hikes and inflation.This,in turn,set central banks on the path to sharply tighter monetary policies.Russias invasion of Uk
68、raine has thrown commodity and agricultural markets into turmoil,and Chinas stance toward COVID-19 continues to disrupt trade flows and raise uncertainties about demand.Near-term metrics such as the Purchasing Managers Index signal stalling,if not declining,activity in the goods-producing sector.For
69、ecasts for both GDP growth and trade expansion have been revised sharply downward.Many advanced economies are projected to experience a recession in 2023.As the pandemic recedes,consumers are redirecting their spending toward services,and high inflation could sap consumption overall.Goods consumptio
70、n looks ready to normalize or even undershoot trend rates,after a period of extraordinary growth.All this is likely to subdue GDP and Trade Quick to RecoverAir Cargo OverviewQ4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 20229085115Index:Q4 2019=100TradeGDP14Worl
71、d Air Cargo Forecast 20222041near-term trade growth.On the other hand,strong household balance sheets and solid labor markets continue to support demand in many economies.In addition,the easing of supply chain frictions could release backed-up flows of goods,and so introduce a near-term tailwind.The
72、 probable slowdown in economic activity and trade will pose challenges.Uncertainty about the extent of rebalancing efforts and the speed of subsequent recovery could increase and linger into 2023.But growth and trade have proven resilient before.Most experts predict a relatively shallow recession,an
73、d trade remains a crucial part of the global economy.The pandemic has shown how important global linkages are for the provision of medical equipment and vaccines,as well as for the delivery of goods to people and companies as they adjust to changing external circumstances.Supply chains are diversify
74、ing,and many emerging markets are undeterred in their pursuit of global integration as the key to higher standards of living.A case in point is the recent Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade agreement,which links economies across Asia that account for about 30%of the worlds GDP.The Eur
75、opean Union,which continues to advance free trade agreements as well,recently revealed that 2021 exports to preferential trade partners surpassed 1 trillion for the first time.Over the next 20 years,global GDP is expected to grow 2.6%on average.South Asia will lead the world with 5%growth,followed b
76、y China and Southeast Asia.Advanced manufacturing and expanding consumer economieskey building blocks for global tradewill drive growth for these regions.Trade is expected to expand at 2.8%on average over the next 20 years,with essential contributions not only from South and Southeast Asia,but also
77、from many developing countries,as well as substantial,established traders like China.Advanced economies remain foundational parts of the global economy.While GDP is expected to grow at less than the global average,the size and economic breadth of these markets makes them indispensable as traders of
78、advanced goods and services,as well as destinations for the exports of many emerging economies.Air Cargo OverviewAsian Economies Lead Global GrowthAnnual Real GDP Growth,20222041Source:S&P Global Intelligence,3Q20225.0%4.3%3.8%3.1%2.7%2.6%2.5%2.4%2.0%1.4%1.1%South AsiaChinaSoutheast AsiaMiddle EastA
79、fricaGlobalLatin AmericaNorth AmericaOceaniaEuropeNortheast Asia15World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041A Prominent Role for Structural Factors Express networks are proliferating.E-commerce doubled its share of retail sales over the past five years,and this high growth rate was incorporated in pre-pandem
80、ic forecasts.But,as with many things COVID-related,it was a trend that accelerated,with adoption rates taking a big jump during the pandemic.Today,consumers are more acclimated to online shopping,and they have high expectations for fast service.COVID pulled ahead pre-pandemic forecasts and expectati
81、ons with container speed and reliability less suited in some cases to serving the demand.In addition to accelerating growth,the global impact of the pandemic has boosted plans to develop express networks in emerging marketsparticularly Chinaand also has raised expectations for the segment overall,pa
82、rticularly in the standard-body and medium-widebody freighter categories.New Players in the Air Cargo ArenaSome shipping companies are exploring a shift to more vertically integrated operational strategies.Historically,freight forwarders were the primary interface between producers and shipping comp
83、anies.Some shipping companies now aim to compete in the freight-forwarder space by developing their own full-service solutions.For customers,the value propositions here are the elimination of modal uncertainty and the de-risking of service levels.To provide this integrated mobility of goods,some shi
84、pping container and logistics companies are acquiring airplanes to provide the promised range of service levels.This trend suggests some aggregate movement of shipping volumes from sea to air.While the volumes will not likely be large relative to total global trade,even small shifts toward the speed
85、,reliability,and risk mitigation of air could be significant,considering that air cargo now represents only about 1%of global trade volumes.In addition to growth among established logistics providers,markets around the world are seeing a range of air cargo newcomers,including a spurt of operations g
86、rowth for smaller general-freight and express airlines.A fleet analysis in the fourth quarter of 2022 revealed roughly 40 more operators than pre-pandemic.In addition,some belly-only operators have added main-deck freighters to their fleets,in efforts to diversify revenues.Strategic Supply Chain,Log
87、istics InnovationsGlobally,the pandemic experience highlighted the risks of the just-in-time supply chains that had evolved over the previous several decades.As labor shortages constrained both shipping and manufacturing,single-source supply chains became points of failure.As a result,many goods com
88、panies and logistics firms today are exploring diversified supply chains as a way of mitigating future risk.If the past two decades saw the pendulum swing toward reduced costs and greater efficiency,the years ahead suggest a swing toward diversity and reliability.In the near future,supply chain resi
89、lience will be recognized as a key performance indicator.This trend likely will bolster air cargo demand for two reasons:First,air cargos flexibility and point-to-point service are ideal for multi-node supply chains.And,second,the pandemic has demonstrated the value of air cargos speed and reliabili
90、ty.As manufacturers and logistics providers consider ways to diversify supply chains,a range of transport modes is likely to be one more instrument in the toolbox for some commodities.Air Cargo Overview16World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Multiple Drivers of Growth A range of issues beyond cyclical ec
91、onomic trends influence air cargo market growth forecasts.Among them are modal competition,globalization,market liberalization,and new air-eligible commodities.Complementing the 2.6%long-term economic growth outlook,trade and industrial production will be key drivers for air cargo growth.We forecast
92、 that trade will outpace economic growth,increasing 2.8%,and that industrial production will grow 2.2%,both annually,over the next two decades.These economic factors,as well as the regulatory and industry structure dynamics highlighted above,support Boeings forecast that air cargo traffic,measured i
93、n revenue tonne kilometers,will grow an average of 4.1%annually from 2022 to 2041.Air Cargo OverviewMultiple,Complex Factors Influence MarketsAir Cargo Traffic to Double Over Next Two DecadesAverage Annual Growth,202220414.4%4.1%3.6%600500400300200100700800RTKS(billions)History3.6%growth per yearFor
94、ecast4.1%growth per year20026202362041HighBaseLow Airport Operational Curfews Environmental RegulationsRegulatory Market Liberalization New Trade Relationships Trade Quotas&Restrictions Currency Revaluations Export PromotionEconomic Geopolitical Dynamics National Development Pr
95、ograms Oil/Fuel Prices&Availability Regional GDP Growth Air&Service Labor Constraints Directional Imbalances E-commerce GrowthIndustry Structure Manufacturing Relocation&Diversifcation Modal Competition Network Development New Commodities Shipper Utilization Supply Chain Logistics Development17World
96、 Air Cargo Forecast 20222041East Asian markets lead the global air cargo forecast in both volumes and growth rates.Today,the Transpacific and Europe-to-East Asia air cargo flows are the largest.By the end of the forecast period,the intra-East Asia region will become the third largest global market,u
97、p from the number-five position in 2021,with 5.7%projected average annual growth.Driving this shift will be increasing goods production and booming consumer markets.Industrial production,trade,and express-market growth are forecast to propel traffic growth of 5.3%in the domestic China market,the sec
98、ond fastest-growing flow in our 20-year forecast.The intra-North America and Transatlantic air cargo flows will round out the top five markets by the end of the forecast period,with large markets today but slower growth rates due to the more mature market dynamics of Europe and the United States.Air
99、 Cargo OverviewEast Asia Markets Will LeadRegional Traffic Will DiversifyMarket Share by Airline DomicileSource:IATA,ICAO,US DOT,Airline data,Boeing4.4%4.5%5.7%3.1%1.7%5.3%3.9%3.2%4.9%2.4%2.3%East AsiaNorth AmericaEast AsiaEuropeIntra-East AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaNorth AmericaDomestic ChinaEuropeLati
100、n AmericaSouth AsiaEuropeAfricaEuropeLatin AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastEurope2.5%Intra-EuropeAnnualGrowth202120222041RTKs(billions)300609021 Air Cargo Traffic285BRTKsAsia Pacifc:31%North America:27%Europe:20%Middle East:13%Russia and Central Asia:5%Latin America:2%Africa:2%18World Air
101、Cargo Forecast 20222041Since 2000,carriers based in the Middle East have leveraged their geographic position at the crossroads of Africa,Asia,and Europe.Middle East carriers quickly expanded their widebody passenger and freighter fleets,which allowed them to increase their share of world air cargo t
102、raffic from 4%in 1999 to 13%in 2021.In 2021,airlines based in East Asia,Europe,North America,and the Middle East accounted for 91%of all world air cargo traffic.In charter traffic,North American airlines are the leading providers.Growing domestic markets and intra-regional flows are the key drivers
103、for the deployment of standard-body and medium-widebody freighters,while the longer-haul intercontinental flows,typified by the top three regions(Transpacific,Transatlantic,and EuropeAsia),will be the primary users of large-body freighters.These dynamics underpin the Boeing freighter fleet forecast.
104、Air Cargo OverviewAsian Airlines Lead Scheduled Air FreightNorth American Airlines Lead Charter FreightSources:IATA,ICAO,US DOT,Airline data,BoeingSources:IATA,ICAO,US DOT,Airline data,Boeing.2021 data preliminary and may include some preighter operations.20000300RTK
105、S(billions)Russia and Central AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaAsia PacifcMiddle EastAfricaLatin America2005302520151054045RTKS(billions)Russia and Central AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaAsia PacifcMiddle EastAfricaLatin America19World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041AfricaFor the purposes of this fo
106、recast,we define Africa as the entire continent of Africa plus the nations of Cape Verde,the Comoros Islands,Madagascar,Mauritius,Mayotte,Runion,So Tom and Prncipe,and the Seychelles.Nairobi,Kenya20World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Five Countries Lead African International Air TradeMost African inter
107、national air trade is conducted by a small number of economies.Africa can be divided into five distinct economic subregions:North Africa,Southern Africa,East Africa,West Africa,and Central Africa.The East Africa subregion has the largest share of outbound air cargo traffic,while more import traffic
108、comes into the North Africa subregion.However,traffic in this direction is more widely spread across all subregions.Central Africa represents the smallest share of traffic in both directions and is heavily dependent on imports.As of 2021,leading international air cargo markets on the African contine
109、nt included Kenya(18%),Egypt(16%),South Africa(15%),Nigeria(11%),and Ethiopia(11%).Of these,South Africa experienced the greatest growth over 2020,improving 34%in international air freight.Overall,African air cargo traffic bounced back from pandemic-driven lows in 2020,growing 20%in 2021.Africa20212
110、,070,000Internationaltonnes71%KenyaEgyptSouth AfricaNigeriaEthiopiaOther18%16%15%11%11%29%Kenya,Egypt,South Africa,Ethiopia,and Nigeria Lead African International Air Cargo Handled;East Africa Is Largest SubregionSource:ACIHighlights In 2021,air cargo moved by Africa-domiciled carriers grew by 10%ov
111、er 2019 levels.Year-to-date growth(through August,2022)has improved to 12%against 2019,despite minimal improvement in cargo capacity.Africas air cargo market is still predominantly driven by the trade flow with Europe,with perishables defining the northbound traffic,and consumables and industrial go
112、ods driving the other direction.Continued demand for perishables in advanced economies,growing foreign investment in African regions,and a growing number of working-age consumers are some of the key drivers behind annual growth projections of 3.2%and 5.4%over the next 20 years for the Europe and Eas
113、t-Asia markets respectively.23%North Africa37%East Africa20%West Africa3%Central Africa17%Southern Africa21World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Established Relationships Drive African Air Trade Patterns The AfricaEurope market accounts for approximately 2.7%of global air cargo tonnage and 2.8%of global
114、air cargo traffic in tonne-kilometers.Based on regional air trade and airport statistics,overall African air trade was estimated at 3.0 million tonnes in 2021.While East Asia,Middle East,and Intra-Africa flows are critical markets for the region,Europe accounts for 53%of African cargo and commands t
115、he majority of Africas international air trade,largely because of its proximity and long-standing historical and investment ties.Asias share of Africas international air trade suffered a bit during the pandemic,but remains the next largest at 20%in 2021.Growing Chinese investment and commercial ties
116、 to Africa are the principal drivers of growth in this market.Rich in natural resources,Africa continues to draw Chinese enterprises seeking new raw materials to fuel the countrys industrial expansion.Trade among African nations was estimated at 326,000 tonnes for 2021,which accounts for 11%of the t
117、otal Africa cargo market.When we include domestic traffic,intra-Africa trade accounts for 14%of the total market.Despite some loss of traction during the pandemic,new free-trade and air-service agreements(such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and Single African Air Transport Market measure
118、s)encourage operators to develop new intra-Africa air cargo lanes.Implementation is key to stimulating more economic growth within the continent.In addition,current ground infrastructure limitations will continue to drive a special need for air cargo within Africa,because development projects are li
119、mited by the difficulty of securing substantial financial investments.2.52.01.51.00.53.03.5Airborne Metric Tonnes(millions)201120192.7M20213.0M2.1M49%19%47%21%53%20%EuropeEast AsiaMiddle EastIntra-AfricaOtherEurope Gained Ground Lost During the Pandemic,as a Mature Trade Relationship Proved More Res
120、ilientSource:S&P GTA,ACI,and Boeing analysisAfrica22World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041AfricaEurope TrafficAir cargo flows between Africa and Europe grew over the past decade.Traffic from Africa to Europe experienced volatile growth over the last decade,averaging 5.6%per year since 2011,growing 30%in
121、2021,and even growing 3%in 2020,despite the pandemic.Europe-to-Africa air flows showed similar volatility,yet averaged a lower growth rate of 2.6%per year since 2011.Air cargo imports from Europe contracted in 2020 by 7%before rebounding in 2021,with growth of 24%.The directional imbalance between A
122、frica-to-Europe and Europe-to-Africa is relatively small,although northbound trade is steadily growing into a majority,most recently representing 56%in 2021.Traffic Between Africa and Europe Saw a Boost During the Pandemic Growing 27%in 2021Source:S&P GTA,US Department of Commerce,ACI and Boeing ana
123、lysis200072009200,4001,2001,0008006004002001,6001,800Air Cargo Traffc,Tonnes(thousands)4.2%growthAfrica to Europe:5.6%Europe to Africa:2.6%East Africa Dominates Exports to Europe;West Africa Takes More ImportsShare of ExportsAfrica toEuropeShare of ImportsEurope toAf
124、ricaEast AfricaNorth AfricaSouthern AfricaWest AfricaCentral Africa57%19%10%9%5%16%24%22%31%7%Africa23World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Traffic between Africa and Europe depends heavily on the strong perishables trade.In the northbound direction(Africa to Europe),perishable traffic is largely driven
125、by fresh-cut flowers(48%),most of which are produced within the East Africa subregion.In the Europe-to-Africa direction,the commodity mix is more balanced,with machinery and electrical equipment representing the largest category.Other industrial goods,however,play a large role in air cargo trafficpa
126、rticularly chemicals and related goods,a category in which pharmaceutical goods make up 39%.An interesting development for 2021 can be seen in the import of art and collectors pieces from Europe,which is up significantly from previous reported years.Perishables Drive African Exports to Europe;Fresh-
127、Cut Flowers Out of East Africa Top the ListSource:S&P GTA Dashboard83%8%2%2%1%1%3%PerishablesAfrica to Europe880,000 TonnesMetals and Metal ProductsMachinery and Electrical EquipmentTextiles,Leather,and ApparelGlass and Non-Metallic ProductsChemicals and Related ProductsOther20%18%13%12%9%6%4%Machin
128、ery and Electrical EquipmentEurope to Africa689,000 TonnesChemicals and Related ProductsComputers,Offce,Communications,and Professional EquipmentPerishablesArt,Collectors PiecesMetals and Metal ProductsWood,Paper,and Related Products18%OtherLarge Spike in Imported Art During the Pandemic Was Behind
129、Changes in Commodity MixSource:S&P GTA DashboardAfrica24World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041AfricaEast Asia TrafficAfricaEast Asia air cargo trade is driven by continued Asian investment and African consumer demand.The developing AfricaEast Asia air cargo market has increased 3.9%per year on average in
130、 the past decade.Capital investments in African extractive industries,and growing African economies that demand more consumer goodsespecially from Chinawill continue to drive these markets.Air cargo flows are significantly imbalanced,with nearly four times as much Asian air cargo entering as leaving
131、 Africa.Compared to Europe,Central Africa represents a bigger part of the exports to East Asia,although East Africa still exports the most outbound goods.Inbound trade between the regions is more concentrated in the West Africa subregion.Traffic Between Africa and East Asia Experienced a Less Robust
132、 Snapback in 2021,Growing Only 9%YOY20007200920000400300200100600700Air Cargo Traffc,Tonnes(thousands)Africa to East Asia:6.0%East Asia to Africa:3.4%3.9%growthSources:S&P GTA,US Department of Commerce,ACI and Boeing analysisCentral Africa Plays a Bigger Role in Expo
133、rts to East Asia;West Africa Is Largest ImporterShare of ExportsAfrica toEast AsiaShare of ImportsEast Asia to AfricaEast AfricaNorth AfricaSouthern AfricaWest AfricaCentral Africa30%26%6%23%15%23%16%14%40%7%Africa25World Air Cargo Forecast 2022204120%19%12%10%6%6%4%Machinery and Electrical Equipmen
134、tEast Asia to Africa465,000 TonnesTextiles,Leather,and ApparelPerishablesComputers,Offce,Communications,and Professional EquipmentChemicals and Related ProductsMetals and Metal ProductsGlass and Non-Metallic Products2%Transportation Equipment and PartsOther21%OtherIndustrial Goods and Apparel Top Li
135、st of Traded Commodities From East Asia to Africa in 2021Source:S&P GTA DashboardTraffic moving from East Asia into Africa consists of a wide variety of commodities,mostly finished and industrial goods.Machinery and electrical equipment represent the largest share of imported traffic,followed closel
136、y by textiles,leather,and apparel,with the bulk of that(39%)being footwear and apparel.Chemicals and related products,as well as computers and professional equipment,make up a large portion of imported goods,evidence of East Asiasprimarily Chinasindustrial and commercial investment in the continent.
137、Of the chemicals and related products category imported from East Asia,34%of it is pharmaceutical goods.Eastbound trade(Africa to East Asia)is heavily driven by natural resources,with metals and metal products and perishables accounting for nearly three quarters of the traffic.Natural Resources Driv
138、e African Exports to East AsiaSource:S&P GTA Dashboard38%35%12%4%4%3%5%Metals and Metal ProductsAfrica to East Asia125,000 TonnesPerishablesEnergy and MiningTextiles,Leather,and ApparelChemicals and Related ProductsMachinery and Electrical EquipmentOtherAfrica26World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041China
139、IndiaAfricaEuropeSoutheast AsiaLatin Americaand CarribbeanNorth AmericaChinaIndiaAfricaEuropeSoutheast AsiaLatin Americaand CarribbeanNorth America895m686m486m460m351m338m210m456m1,088m995m805m440m398m231m20026203120362041Africa ForecastsDriven by developing economies,rich natural resourc
140、es and a rapidly growing working-age population,Africa represents an opportune market for industrialization and air cargo growth.Overall,air cargo trade between Africa and Europe will grow 3.2%per year,while AfricaEast Asia air cargo trade will expand at an average annual growth rate of 5.4%.Africas
141、 Working Age Population Growing SignificantlySource:UN Probabilistic Population Projections,2022Africa27World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Both directions in the AfricaEurope market will grow at relatively similar rates.The Africa-to-Europe market is expected to average 3.3%growth per year.European ec
142、onomic growth,African economic diversification into manufactured products,and continued moderate growth in African perishables are assumed in the baseline forecast for this air-trade flow.A slightly lower level of growth is forecast for the Europe-to-Africa market,at 3.2%.This is mainly due to highe
143、r growth,observed in 2021,which created a greater base year.From a 2019 base,this flow is expected to grow 3.6%per year.The base growth-rate forecast reflects African consumer buying power for goods that arrive by air,as well as increased investment in industries that depend on air cargo for time-cr
144、itical shipments.As the manufacturing base in Africa continues to develop,the diversity of inbound air cargo should increase,reducing its vulnerability to swings in commodity prices.Chinese Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)Has Grown Rapidly,Approaching US Investment LevelsSource:John Hopkins School of
145、Advanced International Studies China Africa Research InitiativeSource:Boston University Development Policy Center Chinese Loans to Africa DatabaseThe AfricaEurope Market Will Grow 3.2%per Year Average Annual Growth,202220413.9%3.2%2.7%3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005003,5004,000Tonnes(thousands)History4.2
146、%growth per yearForecast3.2%growth per year20026203120362041HighBaseLow33.0B61.4B25.3B22.9B14.7BCentralAfricaEastAfrica70605040302010TransportPowerMiningICTWaterOtherWestAfricaSouthernAfricaNorthAfricaUnadjusted US Dollars(billions)90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 208070605040
147、302010China 43.4BUnadjusted US Dollars(billions)U.S.47.5BChinese FDI vs US FDI to Africa,StockChinese Loans by Subregion and SectorAfrica28World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Growth in African air trade with East Asia will be driven principally by Asian imports into the continent.Chinas foreign direct
148、investment(FDI)in Africa grew at a rate of 12%per year between 2011 and 2020,while,during the same period,U.S.FDI contracted an average of 2%per year.By implementing Prosper Africa measures and U.S.Africa strategy proposals,the U.S.hopes to counter growing Chinese investment and geopolitical influen
149、ce in the region.It is difficult to conclude that the recent growth of U.S.FDI in 2020 is a result of these initiatives.Analysis of data on loans from China to Africa shows that the majority of lending is directed to the Central Africa subregion,with most of that money channeled toward the mining se
150、ctor.Transport,power,mining,information and communication technologies,and water are the sectors borrowing the most in U.S.dollars.Follow-on investment by China in African extractive industries and infrastructure,combined with continuing urbanization and rising demand for consumer goods in Africa,wi
151、ll propel East Asia-to-Africa air trade growth at a rate of 5.7%per year for the forecast period.Conversely,Africa-to-Asia air cargo trade will expand at a slower rate of 4%per year,with higher growth expected later in the forecast period as Africa slowly develops industrial ties with East Asia.The
152、AfricaEast Asia Market Will Grow 5.4%per Year5.8%5.4%4.6%1,6001,2008004002,000Tonnes(thousands)History3.9%growth per yearForecast5.4%growth per year20026203120362041HighBaseLowAfrica29World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Domestic ChinaShanghai30World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Market Overview
153、China is the worlds manufacturing colossus,with key industries producing commodities in such categories as apparel,automotive,computing,and telecommunication equipment.Most of these goods are intended for export and have traditionally been transported by air.Domestic Chinas air cargo traffic has gro
154、wn by 6.2%annually over the last two decades.It accounts for 7.5%of the worlds air cargo traffic by tonnage,and for 2.3%of the global air cargo market in tkm.The Stimulus of Consumer DemandTremendous increases in air trade with countries throughout Asia,Europe,and North America have long been major
155、drivers of growth in domestic Chinese air cargo traffic.During the past decade,consumer demand in Chinas rapidly developing cities has become another important stimulus,as China shifts to a consumption-driven economy.The service/consumption sector now contributes more than 53%of Chinas GDP.At 4.5 mi
156、llion tonnes transported annually,the domestic China air cargo market is second only to that of the United States.Chinas market grew 6.2%annually over the past 20 years and,as the shift toward a consumer economy continues,air cargo demand will further expand.Air cargo activity is concentrated in the
157、 coastal and southern provinces,home to the bulk of the countrys 1.4 billion people and its$15.4-trillion economy.Chinas domestic air cargo market grew 2.3%in 2021,after a decline of 10.9%in 2020.For the first six months of 2022,Chinas domestic air cargo traffic also declined,by 27%,mostly due to th
158、e ongoing impacts of Chinas COVID-19 policies.But Chinas economic growth is forecast to reach 3.8%and 4.9%for 2022 and 2023,respectively.Domestic China5002000720092001720192021Tonnes(thousands)2,0001,5001,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000Domestic China Air Cargo Grew 6.2%per Ye
159、ar Since 2001Source:CAACHighlights China is the worlds largest e-commerce market,valued at more than$2 trillion in 2021.Domestic air cargo traffic in China declined 27%in the first half of 2022 due to the continuing impacts of Chinas COVID-19 policies.High-speed rail freight service shows potential,
160、especially in providing additional cargo capacity during peak times,complementary to air cargo service.Led by e-commerce and express markets,domestic air trade in China will grow 5.3%annually.31World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041E-Commerce Spurs GrowthRapidly expanding e-commerce and express markets a
161、re major growth drivers for domestic air cargo.In fact,China boasts the worlds largest e-commerce market,valued at more than$2 trillion in 2021,a rise of 19.1%over 2020.During the past ten years,its annual growth rate has been 30%,about 1.8 times the 17%rate of the US.The pandemic dramatically accel
162、erated e-commerce growth as consumers shopped online to avoid COVID-19 exposure.For 2021,combined sales by Alibaba and JD.com set a record of$139 billion64%over 2020.Alibaba Singles Day sales in 2021 reached$84.5 billion,an increase of 14%in comparison with the previous year.Purchases during JD.coms
163、 618 Shopping Festival amounted to US$53.8 billion,an increase of more than 30%over 2020.Sales of luxury goods increased by 40%over the prior year.Interestingly,consumers purchased US$46.9 million worth of iPhones in the first few minutes after they went on sale on November 1.Consequently,in 2021 mo
164、re than 105 billion parcels had to be movedan increase of 28.3%per year from 2016 through 2021.Chinas airlines responded by growing their freighter fleet by 63%over the same period.By years end,2021,143 freighters were operating to meet Chinas domestic e-commerce and express-market demand.This build
165、up primarily consisted of standard-body and medium-widebody freighters,which make up 77%of the China-domiciled freighter fleet.How HSR Could Complement Air FreightMeanwhile,China boasts the worlds longest,most heavily used high-speed rail(HSR)network.Built over the past 14 years,the network connects
166、 most major cities with nearly 40,000 kilometers of tracknot all of it concentrated in the coastal and southern provinces.That stretch of track could double by 2035 under a plan recently announced by the state-owned China Railway Group.The expansion of HSR service brings us to the question of freigh
167、t transport.Strong growth in the e-commerce and express-cargo markets illustrates the need to deliver goods rapidly.At$2.03 trillion,China commands the worlds largest e-commerce market,which has grown 21%per year over the last five years.Research shows that the HSR passenger network actually could p
168、rovide a foundation for HSR freight development,especially on 20000202021Online retail sales(USD billions)2,5002,0001,5001,000500USAChina30%growth per year17%growth per yearSource:US Census Bureau and Chinas Online Retail Sales Have Passed$2 TrillionDomestic China32W
169、orld Air Cargo Forecast 20222041high-density routes during peak periods.But HSR freight service faces significant challenges.For example,HSR in China is primarily designed for passenger traffic,not freight.Although freight has been carried in vacant HSR passenger carriages,passenger traffic constrai
170、ns operating time and service schedules.And even this qualified freight service is limited to small or light cargo by the weight limits of infrastructure designed for passenger trains.Other infrastructure concerns include platforms that lack freight access or transshipment facilities;widely separate
171、d stations and parcel distribution centers;and stations without cargo warehouses,stacking areas,machinery for loading and unloading,or large-scale sorting facilities.Whats more,on the business side,dedicated high-speed freight lines would require significant volume guarantees from mail and parcel de
172、livery companies or other shippers.So,over all,the present passenger-dedicated system will need to be fundamentally transformed,emerging as a mixed passenger-freight service.This HSR freight service may at first be limited to a few dense lanes that support local express-package traffic demand.But,ev
173、entually,given Chinas strong e-commerce and express market growth,HSR freight services could complement the air cargo business.Context:Outpacing the AverageChinas GDP is forecast to grow 4.2%per year and increase 2.3 times over the next 20 years.China currently accounts for 58%of all East Asia GDP a
174、nd is projected to account for 66%by 2041.For this forecast,base-,low-,and high-growth GDP models were developed to forecast domestic China air cargo growth.The low-and high-growth air cargo scenarios reflect GDP projections for 0.5%below and 0.5%above the baseline GDP per capita growth,respectively
175、.Overall,domestic China air trade will grow 5.3%annually for the forecast period,with most rapid growth in the first half and some slowing in the second half,in conjunction with growth rates.Chinas GDP Is Expected to Increase 2.3 Times in the Next 20 YearsDomestic China Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 5
176、.3%per YearAverage Annual Growth,20222040262031203620415,00020,00015,00010,00025,00030,00035,00040,000China GDP(USD,billions)History6.2%growth per yearForecast4.2%growth per year200031203620412,0008,0006,0004,00010,00012,00014,00016,000China GDP(USD,billio
177、ns)History6.2%growth per yearForecast5.3%growth per yearHighBaseLow6.0%5.3%4.6%Source:S&P GTADomestic China33World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041East AsiaNorth AmericaFor the purposes of this forecast,we define East Asia as Australia,Cambodia,China,Hong Kong,Indonesia,Japan,Macau,Malaysia,New Zealand,t
178、he Philippines,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand,and Vietnam.We define North America as Canada and the United States.Seoul,South Korea34World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Market OverviewThe East AsiaNorth America market represents 23.1%of the worlds air cargo in tonne-kilometers and 9.2%in tonnage
179、.Over all,the market grew 1.3%and 27.9%in 2020 and 2021,respectively.Air freight in the East Asia-to-North America direction increased from 2.8 million tonnes in 2020 to 3.5 million tonnes in 2021.Westbound air freight volumes from North America to East Asia increased from 1.4 million tonnes in 2020
180、 to 1.9 million tonnes in 2021.East AsiaNorth America15%-15%25%5%-5%MacauIndonesiaJapanSingaporeAustraliaPhilippinesNew ZealandHong KongCambodiaThailandSouth KoreaChinaTaiwanVietnamMalaysia2021 Year-Over-Year Growth2020 Year-Over-Year Growth-25%-20%20%40%60%80%100%East AsiaNorth America Air Freight
181、Market Grew 28%in 2021 Source:US Department of Commerce and IHS S&P GlobalHighlights The transpacific air cargo market has grown by nearly 30%since 2019,but growth slowed in the first half of 2022 due to COVID-19 restrictions,economic headwinds,and supply chain challenges.China,Japan,Taiwan,and Sout
182、h Korea remain the top Asian air cargo markets,collectively responsible for roughly 70%of total volumes.Vietnam is the fastest growing market and is now the fifth largest.Economic fundamentals,supply chain diversification,and manufacturing investment throughout Asia are key drivers behind the 4.4%an
183、nual growth projected for the East AsiaNorth America flow.35World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041The United States accounts for nearly 90%of the overall air trade market between East Asia and North America.U.S.monthly market activity can therefore approximate the overall transpacific market.During the f
184、irst six months of 2022,overall East AsiaU.S.air cargo traffic grew 2.5%,compared with the first six months of 2021.Traffic grew 1.8%and 2.8%in the U.S.-to-East Asia and East Asia-to-U.S.directions,respectively.For the first quarter,U.S.East Asia air cargo traffic grew 12.7%,with U.S.imports growing
185、 13.7%and U.S.exports growing 11.1%.Further COVID outbreaks leading to additional restrictions in a number of countries,a rise in inflation,and high energy prices resulted in a U.S.East Asia air cargo traffic decline of 6.4%in the second quarter of 2022.20000212022-4
186、0%20%0%-20%40%60%80%100%United States to East AsiaEast Asia to United StatesEast AsiaNorth America Air Freight Grew 2.5%for First Half of 2022Monthly Change in Air Cargo Tonnage Year Over YearSource:US Department of CommerceEast AsiaNorth America36World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Country Market Shar
187、es Vary WidelyThe ChinaNorth America air cargo market grew 7.4%and 15%in 2020 and 2021,respectively.China continues to represent the largest air cargo market in the East AsiaNorth America market;its market share rose from 20%in 2001 to 43%in 2011,and stood at 46%in 2021.This increased Chinese domina
188、nce led to a decline in Japans share from 28%in 2001 to 16%in 2011 and 13%in 2021.Vietnam is the fastest growing air cargo market,expanding 20.6%per year over the past 20 years.Vietnams market share has increased from 0.3%in 2001 to 5.2%in 2021,and now accounts for 7%of the East Asia-to-North Americ
189、a market.China Accounts for 46%of Transpacific Air Cargo MarketChina Market Remains Dominant;Vietnam Grew Significantly Over Two DecadesSource:US Department of Commerce and IHS MarkitSource:US Department of Commerce and S&P Global3,500,000TonnesEast Asia-to-North AmericaNorth America-to-East Asia1,9
190、00,000TonnesOther:11%Thailand:5%South Korea:4%Taiwan:8%Vietnam:7%Japan:11%China:54%China:30%Japan:16%Other:13%Taiwan:6%Australia:6%Singapore:8%Hong Kong:8%South Korea:13%200120112021%Share28.3%20.3%11.4%8.1%6.4%6.2%5.0%3.8%3.6%2.7%2.2%1.0%1%1%1%1%JapanChinaTaiwanSouth KoreaSingaporeHong KongMalaysia
191、AustraliaThailandPhilippinesIndonesiaNew ZealandMacauVietnamCambodiaLaos%Share45.7%13.0%7.4%7.1%5.2%4.5%3.5%3.3%3.1%3.1%1.6%1.2%1%1%1%1%ChinaJapanTaiwanSouth KoreaVietnamThailandSingaporeMalaysiaAustraliaHong KongIndonesiaPhilippinesNew ZealandCambodiaMacauLaosEast AsiaNorth America37World Air Cargo
192、 Forecast 202220416%24%23%12%9%11%3%12%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentNorth America-to-East Asia1,900,000 TonnesTextiles,Leather,and ApparelDocuments and Small PackagesChemicals and Related ProductsComputers,Offce,Communicationsand Professional EquipmentAnimal ProductsVegetable ProductsMiscellane
193、ousDrivers of Eastbound vs.Westbound FlowFour commodity categories account for 75%of East Asia-to-North America air cargo traffic:apparel;computers and communication equipment;machinery and electrical equipment;documents and small packages.In the opposite direction,nearly 50%of all traffic falls int
194、o two categories:machinery and electrical equipment;chemicals and related products.East Asian exports to North America grew 6.2%and 24.4%in 2020 and 2021,respectively.Communication equipment;chemicals and related products;machinery and electrical equipment;and documents and small packages grew 20.2%
195、,25.7%,43.5%,and 22%,respectively.Textiles,leather,and apparel declined 17%.North American exports to East Asia grew 34.7%in 2021,after a decline of 7.2%in 2020.Office and communication equipment grew 21%;chemicals and related products grew 71.1%;machinery and electrical equipment grew 33.5%;and doc
196、uments and small packages grew 36.8%.Vegetables and animal products grew 34%in the same period.Consumer Goods Drive Eastbound Transpacific Flow;Manufacturing Materials Drive Westbound FlowSource:S&P Global and US Department of Commerce26%22%16%11%8%3%3%11%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentEast Asia-
197、to-North America3,500,000 TonnesTextiles,Leather,and ApparelDocuments and Small PackagesChemicals and Related ProductsComputers,Offce,Communicationsand Professional EquipmentMetals and Metal ProductsTransportation Equipment and PartsMiscellaneousEast AsiaNorth America38World Air Cargo Forecast 20222
198、041Growth for East AsiaNorth America TrafficTotal air tonnage on the transpacific route is determined by the combined economic activities of North American and East Asian countries,international trade patterns,and the various types of trade commodities.Economic growth in the importing region primari
199、ly determines directionality,but flow is also influenced by exchange rates,which affect the cost of imported goods in national currencies.As COVID moves from a pandemic to an endemic,much of its impact continues,affecting the growth forecast for air trade between East Asia and North American.Accordi
200、ng to Chinas Global Times,air transport costs rose more than 30%in 2020,compared to pre-pandemic levels,but air freight demand continues to accelerate,despite rising cost and supply chain crises(due to COVID disruptions),coupled with a boom in demand.The COVID pandemic,and subsequent supply-chain di
201、sruptions across the globe,have accelerated some companies diversification strategies in manufacturing.While China remains the market-leading giant in manufacturing across East Asia,companies are beginning to incorporate“China Plus One”strategies,in which investment in manufacturing becomes increasi
202、ngly attractive in other Asian regions.Alongside the China-plus-one strategy is the desire for East Asian countries to relocate their manufacturing domestically.Both Taiwan and Japan are offering subsidies and assistance to bring high-tech manufacturing back home.Taiwan has implemented an“Invest Tai
203、wan”initiative that offers attractive loans to motivate manufacturing relocation,and Japan has allocated 2.2 billion to shift production back to domestic plants.External investment is also increasing in East Asian countries.Vietnam and Malaysia are experiencing development booms in high-value manufa
204、cturing,and Thailand,Indonesia,Singapore,and South Korea are becoming increasingly attractive for manufacturing of other goods such as automotive parts,machinery,pharmaceuticals,and packaged goods.East Asia-to-North America Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.2%per Year Average Annual Growth,20212041North
205、 America-to-East Asia Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.4%per Year Average Annual Growth,202031203620414.02.06.08.010.0Tonnes(millions)History4.9%growth per yearForecast4.3%growth per yearHighBaseLow5.1%4.3%3.5%200262031203620413.02.01.04.05.06.0Tonnes(millions)History1.
206、8%growth per yearForecast4.4%growth per yearHighBaseLow5.2%4.4%3.5%East AsiaNorth America39World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Despite booming demand and efforts to relocate manufacturing domestically,China remains competitiveand the fastest-growing market for manufacturing investment,a position that c
207、ontributes significantly to forecast growth in air trade among East Asian and North American routes.According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,foreign direct investment(FDI)increased in China by nearly 25%over the past five years,more than 17%of it from 2020 to 2021.Vietnam
208、also experienced high growth of almost 10%over the past five years,reinforcing East Asias emergence as an increasingly attractive and high-growth market.On East AsianNorth America trade routes,the forecast assumes growth will increase as FDI in the region continues to grow,especially as the global m
209、arket recovers from COVID supply chain pressures,and demand increases for air-transported goods.North American exports to East Asia grew at a lackluster rate of 1.8%over the last decade,due not only to the economic slowdown,but also to disasters that included Japans 2011 tsunami and nuclear catastro
210、phe.Record flooding in Malaysia,Thailand,and Indonesia during 2014 and 2015,which displaced 367,000 people,also hampered growth.North American exports to East Asia are forecast to grow 4.4%per year over the next two decades,driven largely by the rise of the Asian middle class.In 2020,the Asian middl
211、e class reached 2 billion people,compared to 647 million in the Americas.Asia is expected to account for 65%of the worlds middle class(which will reach an estimated 3.5 billion)by 2030.Chinas middle-class population is expected to nearly double,from more than 400 million in 2021 to over 750 million
212、by 2041.Asias fast-growing middle class is driving demand and shaping consumption patterns across sectors that range from travel to luxury goods to food,where consumption trends emphasize health and sustainability.As an example,food-related products like beef,fish,pork,and vegetables increased from
213、15%in 2011 to 20%,as a share of North America-to-Asia tonnes,in 2021.East AsiaNorth America40World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Europe East AsiaFor the purposes of this forecast,we define Europe as all 27 member countries of the European Union plus Albania,Gibraltar,Iceland,Norway,Switzerland,Turkey,a
214、nd the countries of the former Yugoslavia.We define East Asia as Australia,Cambodia,China,Hong Kong,Indonesia,Japan,Macau,Malaysia,New Zealand,the Philippines,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand,and Vietnam.Hong Kong41World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Strong Growth in 2021;Challenging Market Dynami
215、cs in 2022The EuropeEast Asia market represents 18.8%of the worlds air cargo in tonne-kilometers,and 9.2%in tonnage.After contracting 8.4%in 2020 due to pandemic impacts,the overall EuropeEast Asia market grew 15.7%in 2021.The Europe-to-East Asia flow grew 14.6%in 2021 after contracting 12.8%in 2020
216、,while,in the East Asia-to-Europe direction,traffic contracted 4.1%in 2020 and grew 16.8%in 2021.Air freight in the East Asia-to-Europe direction increased from 2.5 million tonnes in 2020 to 2.9 million tonnes in 2021.Eastbound(from Europe to East Asia)air freight volumes increased from 2.2 million
217、tonnes in 2020 to 2.6 million tonnes in 2021.EuropeEast Asia air cargo traffic grew an average of 4.3%per year over the last two decades.After the global economic downturn of 2008/2009,the market quickly recovered,growing 5.7%per year between 2009 and 2017,but then saw no growth in 2018,followed by
218、a decline of 2%in 2019.Europes economic slowdown contributed to the situation.After growing 3%in 2017,the European economy slowed to 2.1%and 1.7%growth for 2018 and 2019,respectively.The introduction of the mandatory Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure(WLTP)for EU car manufacturers al
219、so played a role in the slowdown.This stricter new control system for fuel consumption and emissions applied not only to new vehicles,but also to vehicles that were already approved under the previous system but had not yet been sold.EuropeEast AsiaHighlights The EuropeEast Asia air cargo market has
220、 grown 4.3%since 2001,but growth slowed in the second decade due to the European sovereign debt crisis and COVID-19.The Europe-to-Asia flow is expected to approach parity with Asia-to-Europe,as Asias growing middle class accelerates a shift to a consumption economy,increasing the demand for European
221、 goods.Robust economic fundamentals,a growing Asian middle class,and manufacturing investment throughout Asia are key drivers behind the 4.5%annual growth projected for the East AsiaEurope flow.42World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Air Trade Flow Dynamics EuropeEast Asia annual trade growth includes ov
222、erall air traffic flows between Europe and Asia and also contains some sixth-freedom traffic that flows air cargo via other regions.Thus,the chart does not represent the actual trade flows by direction.Comparisons,therefore,should not be made between the chart at right and the following air trade fl
223、ow analysis.Between 2004 and 2008,Europes imports from East Asia grew 12%per year,while its exports to Asia grew at 8.4%.By 2008,Europe was importing 2.3 million tonnes from East Asia and exporting 1.6 million tonnes to the same region.The gap between Europes imports and exports narrowed,reaching pa
224、rity in 2011 due to the global economic downturn of 2008 and 2009,as well as aggressive financial stimulus in Asia.China led the way with a stimulus package equivalent to 3.2%of its GDP in 2009.Since 2011,Europe-to-East Asia and East Asia-to-Europe volumes grew 2.1%and 3.2%,respectively.The Europe-t
225、o-East Asia flow is expected to remain close to parity with East Asia-to-Europe,as the higher disposable income of Asias growing middle class accelerates a shift to a consumption economy,increasing the demand for European goods.More recently,the pandemic significantly disrupted economic activity as
226、well as international air travel between the two regions,impacting both air freight demand and capacity.Before COVID-19,passenger widebody belly capacity accounted for 57%of all EuropeEast Asia air cargo capacity.With the onset of the pandemic,nearly 40%of the EuropeEast Asia air cargo capacity exit
227、ed the market.As a result,freighter operators raised their fleet utilization and load factors to unprecedented levels.Despite increased operations,the additional freighter capacity was not sufficient to compensate for the lost belly capacity of passenger aircraft.This led to escalating cargo yields.
228、While beginning to moderate as passenger capacity gradually returns to the market,EuropeEast Asia cargo rates remain elevated due to the Ukraine War,which has reduced cargo capacity and caused airlines to implement a“war surcharge”until normal operations return.EuropeEast Asia1.0200072009
229、2001720192021Tonnes(millions)4.03.02.05.06.0The EuropeEast Asia Air Cargo Market Has Grown 4.3%per Year European Air Imports From East Asia Account for 53%of the Market200072009200.52.01.51.00.53.03.5Tonnes(millions)Asia-to-Europe,4.2%Per Year GrowthEurope
230、-to-Asia,4.4%Per Year Growth43World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Air Trade CommoditiesIn the Europe-to-East Asia flow,three commodity categories account for 60%of all air cargo traffic.In descending order,they are machinery and electrical equipment;perishables such as meat,fish,fruits,vegetables,and f
231、lowers;and documents and small packages.In the East Asia-to-Europe direction,three commodity categories also account for 77%of air trade.Here,the categories are machinery and electrical equipment;computers,office,and communication equipment;and documents and small packages.One particularly fast-grow
232、ing market segment between Europe and East Asia has been documents and small packages,sometimes referred to as traditional express traffic.This trade flow has average 6.7%annual growth in annual shipment count in both directions since 2001,as the movement of business samples,legal documents,and othe
233、r expedited small-batch items between Europe and East Asia has increased.The total bidirectional express market averaged over 1 billion shipments in 2021.EuropeEast AsiaCommodities Flows for EuropeEast Asia Air Cargo Market33%27%17%11%3%9%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentEast Asia-to-Europe2.9M Ton
234、nesTextiles,Leather,and ApparelDocuments and Small PackagesPerishablesComputers,Offce,Communications,and Professional EquipmentOther29%16%15%8%7%25%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentEurope-to-East Asia2.6M TonnesTextiles,Leather,and ApparelDocuments and Small PackagesPerishablesComputers,Offce,Commu
235、nications,and Professional EquipmentOther44World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Air Cargo Market ForecastAir trade flowing in both directions of the EuropeAsia air cargo market is forecast to grow an average of 4.5%per year during the next 20 years.The flow from East Asia to Europe is projected to grow
236、at an average rate of 4.3%per year over the next two decades.The flow from Europe to East Asia is forecast to grow 4.6%per year during the upcoming 20 years.Analysis:Economic Growth and Supply Chain Dynamics Drive OutlookEurope-to-East Asia cargo traffic growth slowed to 2.1%over the last 10 years,f
237、rom 4.3%over the last 15 years,due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic,during which traffic declined 12.8%in 2020.Our forecast anticipates that above-global-average economic growth in East Asia will continue,as a result of strong economic development initiatives.Asias GDP is forecast to grow 3.5%per ye
238、ar during the next 20 years.China will continue to play a major role,with expected GDP growth of 4.2%per year over the next 20 years.Chinas economy currently accounts for 57%of East Asias GDP,and will increase to 66%by 2041.The established economies of Europe are expected to grow 1.5%per year.Evolvi
239、ng supply chain strategies also contribute to the flows outlook.The pandemic,coupled with geopolitical developmentsincluding USChina tensions and the Ukraine Warhighlighted the vulnerabilities of the global supply chains and their dependence on the production outputs of a limited number of economies
240、.Supply-chain disruptions across the globe have accelerated the manufacturing diversification strategies of some companies.While China remains the market-leading giant in manufacturing across East Asia,companies are beginning to incorporate a China-plus-one strategy,in which manufacturing-sector inv
241、estment is becoming increasingly attractive in other Asian regions.EuropeEast AsiaEurope-to-East Asia Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.6%per YearAverage Annual Growth,202220423620412.04.06.08.0Air Freight Tonnes(millions)History2.1%growth per yearForecast4.6%growth per yearHighBas
242、eLow5.3%4.6%3.9%Source:S&P Global,Boeing AnalysisEast Asia-to-Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.2%per YearAverage Annual Growth,202220423620412.04.06.08.0Air Freight Tonnes(millions)History3.2%growth per yearForecast4.3%growth per yearHighBaseLow4.9%4.3%3.7%Source:S&P Global
243、,Boeing Analysis45World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Over the last five years,flows of Foreign Direct Investment to Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,Singapore,and Vietnam have averaged about 11%,up from 6%between 2012-2017.Infrastructure initiatives and manufacturing account for this growth
244、.Vietnam and Malaysia are experiencing strong development growth in high-value manufacturing,and Thailand,Indonesia,and Singapore are becoming increasingly attractive investment regions for the manufacture of other goods,such as automotive parts,machinery,pharmaceuticals,and packaged goods.One Belt,
245、One Road:Primarily Complementary to Air CargoChinas Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),also known as“One Belt,One Road,”was launched in 2013 and is one of the most ambitious global infrastructure projects in history.China plans to invest up to$8 trillion in 115 countries,building roads,railways,maritime
246、shipping lanes,and airports to better connect China to Central Asia,Southeast Asia,Russia,Europe,and Africa.This vast investment will stimulate economic growth in the region,supporting increased trade volumes.EuropeEast Asia is expected to benefit from BRI due to improved connectivity and lower cost
247、 of trade.The project is targeted for completion in 2049.From a modal perspective,growing China-to-Europe connectivity will impact freight markets.The cost of rail is twice the cost of sea freight,but only a quarter the cost of air freight.Transit times for rail average 1318 days,compared to 30 days
248、 for ocean and five days for air freight.(Those figures include customs clearance,warehousing,etc.)From a commodity level,the value per kilogram of products moved by rail is much closer to sea than to air.As these comparisons illustrate,rail is more competitive with sea freight than with air freight
249、.EuropeEast Asia46World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Europe and North AmericaAmsterdam47World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Market OverviewAir trade between Europe and North America accounts for approximately 6.1%of the worlds air cargo tonnage,and 8.2%of its tonne-kilometers.EuropeNorth America air trad
250、e rebounded in 2021,while emerging countries supported significant growth.Overall Tonnage RisesThe EuropeNorth America air cargo market has,historically,been volatile.Most recently,the snapback from pandemic disruptions,and the ensuing pent-up demand for goods,accelerated 2021 air cargo tonnage as c
251、onsumers boosted e-commerce spending.Total air trade was down 19%in 2020,but up 31%in 2021,compared to average annual growth of 1.6%over the last two decades.In the U.S.-to-Europe direction,annual air cargo traffic contracted 16%in 2020 due to pandemic constraints,but expanded 32%in 2021.In the Euro
252、pe-to-U.S.direction,annual air cargo traffic contracted 21%in 2020 and expanded 31%in 2021.Overall,the market saw its highest volumes ever in 2021,up 6%over pre-pandemic levels.Total air cargo tonnage between Europe and the United States was 3.6 million tonnes in 2021 compared to 2.7 million tonnes
253、in 2020.Europe and North America200072009200.02.52.01.51.00.53.54.0Tonnes(millions)Europe to North AmericaNorth America to EuropeTotalEuropeNorth America Total Air Trade Has Grown an Average of 1.6%per Year Over the Last Two DecadesSource:US Department of Commerce TR
254、ADE,S&P GTAHighlights EuropeNorth America air trade growth is largely driven by industrial growth in manufacturing equipment and chemicals,while apparel has more recently increased its growth contribution.Five countriesFrance,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,and the United Kingdomaccount for nearly 65%
255、of all European air trade with North America,while emerging European countries gained market share in recent years.The EuropeNorth America air cargo market grew 6%since 2019,but has slowed due to the Russia-Ukraine war and supply-chain challenges.The long-term outlook is for 2.2%growth annually.48Wo
256、rld Air Cargo Forecast 20222041European Air Trade Diversity Increases On average,since 1980,five countriesFrance,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,and the United Kingdomaccounted for nearly 65%of all European air trade with North America.Recently,however,fast-growing trade in the Central and Eastern Eur
257、opean Countries(CEEC)has increased the regions air trade share.With the majority of the CEEC joining the EU in the early 2000s,more than 1,800 German companies invested in 3,500 projects in the CEEC between 2006 and 2017,boosting both trade and income growth.Eastern Europe was a bright spot for trad
258、e in 2021,with Polands year-over-year industrial growth rate at 15%,while Western Europe recovered from pandemic losses,enabling countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany to see growth of 5%.However,industrial growth slowed again in early 2022 due to the RussiaUkraine wars impacts on energy p
259、rices and manufacturing supply chains.Five Countries Account for 65%of EuropeNorth America Air Trade3.6MTonnesGermany:23%United Kingdom:13%Italy:11%France:9%Netherlands:9%Eastern Europe:7%Belgium:5%Norway:3%Switzerland:3%Other:17%Real GDP Growth Rate(Europe)EuropeUS Air Trade Slowed at the Start of
260、the RussiaUkraine WarSteady improvement after initial shock in April2000020202120226420-2-4-6810Real GDP Growth Rate(%)Western EuropeCentral Europe and BalkansJan-20Jul-20Jan-20Jul-21Jan-22Jun-228070130140Monthly Change in Air Cargo Index,2019=100United St
261、ates to EuropeEurope to United StatesSource:IHS MarkitEurope and North America49World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Industrial Commodities Drive Cargo Growth Industrial production of certain commodities is a key driver of growth in air cargo flows.Seven commodity groups make up approximately 75%of the
262、air cargo flows from Europe to North America.Industrial and manufactured goods,like components and processing equipment,are key elements of both eastbound and westbound flows.Chemicals and capital equipment compose the second largest group,with express shipments trailing close behind as the third la
263、rgest commodity group.In the North America-to-Europe direction,capital equipment,chemicals,and express shipments made up nearly 55%of all air trade volumes in 2021.With these commodities in mind,both belly capacity and dedicated freighters are key to the North American and European markets.As the la
264、rgest long-haul passenger flow,the transatlantic routes demand high capacity,greater frequencies,and diversity of destinations from airplanes with enhanced belly cargo capabilities,which often carry commodities like express shipping and small bulk cargo.Oversized cargo such as machinery and industri
265、al commodities like chemicals,combined with the varied and unique demands of shippers and shipping regulations,support dedicated freighter capacity.Before the pandemic,dedicated transatlantic freighter capacity was roughly one third of the total.After the pandemics onset,the ratio of belly to main d
266、eck cargo capacity flipped,with main deck freighters supplying two thirds of that capacity.Transatlantic shipping leads the recovery of long-haul passenger capacity,so this ratio is starting to normalize,with current shares running close to half-and-half.Top Commodities Account for About 80%of the D
267、irectional Flows21%20%14%11%8%6%20%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentNorth America to Europe1.5M TonnesChemicals and Related ProductsDocuments and Small PackagesMetals and Metal ProductsComputers,Offce,Communications,and Professional EquipmentVegetable ProductsOtherSource:US Department of Commerce T
268、RADE,S&P GTATop Commodities Account for 75%of the Directional Flows26%13%13%9%8%6%25%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentEurope to North America2.1M TonnesChemicals and Related ProductsDocuments and Small PackagesAnimal ProductsComputers,Offce,Communications,and Professional EquipmentMiscellaneous Goo
269、dsOtherSource:S&P GTA Dashboard,Eurostat Trade DataEurope and North America50World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041EuropeNorth America Forecast:20222041 GDP growth in Europe and North America will continue to be the broadest-based driver of air trade between these two mature economies.Baseline economic g
270、rowth projections for Europe and North America through 2041 anticipate an average annual growth of 1.3%and 1.7%,respectively.Low-and high-growth scenarios are based on projections of 0.5%below and above baseline GDP growth rates.Baseline growth of total air trade in this market over the next 20 year
271、s is projected to be 2.2%annually,compared to the 1.6%annual average of the previous two decades.European and North American economies are working to bolster high-technology industrial development for commodities like chips and semiconductors,most recently investing in infrastructure and capital equ
272、ipment to support operations in both regions.As a result,air commodities are forecast to grow slightly faster than historical trends.Air trade in the North AmericaEurope direction will average 1.8%growth per year,and will grow slightly faster in the EuropeNorth America direction,at an average of 2.8
273、%per year.For comparison,according to the S&P Global Trade Atlas,the containership sector between Europe and North America will expand 2%annually through 2035.Pandemic shocks caused reliability to waver in maritime shipping due to high containership costs,harbor union strikes,labor shortages,and COV
274、ID-19 outages,which prompted suppliers to seek alternate modes of transportation.Air cargo was the answer,providing quick,reliable service in a time of need.This experience reaffirmed the complementary roles of air cargo and maritime shipping,as they empower global businesses to fully recover and su
275、cceed in the long term.North America to Europe Air Trade Forecast to Grow 1.8%per YearAverage Annual Growth,202220423620411.00.51.52.02.53.0Growth rate%History1%growth per yearForecast1.8%growth per yearHighBaseLow1.1%1.8%2.2%Europe to North America Air Trade Will Grow 2.7%per
276、YearAverage Annual Growth,202220423620411.00.51.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Growth rate%History2.4%growth per yearForecast2.7%growth per yearHighBaseLow3.5%2.7%1.9%Europe and North America51World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Intra-East Asia and OceaniaThis section focuses on countries of
277、the eastern Pacific Rim:Australia,China(including the special administrative districts of Hong Kong and Macau,unless otherwise noted),Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,New Zealand,the Philippines,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand,and Vietnam.No domestic flows are examined in this section;for Chinas domes
278、tic flows,please see“Domestic China,”page 29.Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam52World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Market Overview and Recent DynamicsThe intra-Asia air cargo market remains one of the worlds largest trade flows,despite increasing economic uncertainties.Despite tonnage that grew nearly 5%per ye
279、ar between 2011 and 2018,intra-East Asia and Oceania cargo trade volume contracted by more than 12%overall in 2019 and 2020,due to trade disputes,pandemic constraints,and supply chain challenges.Currently,the flow represents 7.4%of the worlds air cargo in tonne-kilometers,and 14.1%in tonnage.By 2041
280、,the flow is forecast to carry 12%of global air cargo traffic in tonne-kilometers and become the third largest market in the world.Intra-East Asia and OceaniaHighlights Above-global-average economic and trade expansion will fuel air cargo traffic growth.Double-digit e-commerce growth will drive expr
281、ess-network development,further supporting a robust air cargo outlook.Supply chain diversification and regional terrain constraints mean that air cargo will remain a key component of the goods-transport infrastructure.20000202021Tonnes(millions)108642Regions Air Carg
282、o Growth 2.6%per Year Since 2011Source:AAPA,ICAO TFS,Airline/airport sources,Government Trade Statistics 53World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Economic Fundamentals Support Long-Term GrowthChina,which represents more than 50%of the regions GDP,will continue to lead economic output and hold its position
283、 as the regions primary air cargo customer.Economies and trade in other Asian countries are also expected to see strong growth,which will bolster the overall intra-Asia trade outlook.In the regions mix of mature and emerging markets,established economic growth rates are among the worlds highest.Desp
284、ite uncertainties such as currency depreciation,high inflation,and rising oil prices,intra-Asia trade has continued to expand at well above the average rate.The region experienced a decrease in air cargo volume in 2019,as did most other parts of the world,falling 5.4%in 2019 due to trade disputes,we
285、aker manufacturing activities,and lower consumer and business confidence.However,before the onset of COVID-19,the region was starting to show recovery in the fourth quarter of 2019 and early 2020.Now,nearly three years into the pandemic,restrictions have started to ease,and the regions near-term GDP
286、 outlook remains resilient,despite uncertainties in the global economy.We forecast continued expansion of private consumption and industrial production in the post-pandemic environment.In the longer term,the regions Asian economies are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6%,expanding th
287、e overall GDP by nearly 50%in the next 20 years.China will continue to increase its share of the regions GDP in two ways:First,its economy,expected to grow 4.3%per year,will account for nearly 65%of the regions overall GDP by 2041.Second,Chinas influence will broaden,as it shifts further toward cons
288、umer-driven production of higher-value manufactured goods.It is worth noting that air cargo traffic in critical subassemblies and parts has grown to support the emerging supply chains of various Asian manufacturing sectors.At the same time,“China-plus-one”strategies have led many of the regions coun
289、tries to establish manufacturing hubs outside China.Emerging markets in Southeast Asia have been the primary beneficiaries of these trends,due to competitive labor costs,high productivity,and business environments that favor direct foreign investment.Pandemic-driven supply chain optimization and de-
290、risking look likely to accelerate this dynamic.While these developments likely will affect all traffic that touches Chinaespecially when it involves parts and subassemblies such as automotive components and machineryair cargo demand is not expected to change notably over all,but rather to shift to o
291、ther country pairs in the region.Intra-East Asia and Oceania200262030250Index,100=2011 levelsChinaJapanKoreaAustraliaIndonesiaTaiwanOther10Y CAGR5.2%(20112021)10Y CAGR3.6%(20212031)Resilience Expected in GDP GrowthSource:S&P Global54World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041E-Commerce M
292、arket Expansion Will Drive Growth China is the largest e-commerce market in the world.Even before the pandemic,the regions e-commerce market was growing at double-digit rates.This growth accelerated during the pandemic,as e-commerce became the preferred consumer purchasing behavior.China,Japan,and K
293、orea are among the five largest e-commerce markets globally,and they continue to expand their market shares of retail sales in both domestic and cross-border transactions.With a growth rate of 20.6%in 2022,Southeast Asia is forecast to see the worlds fastest e-commerce retail growth.Over the next th
294、ree years,Southeast Asias e-commerce revenue is expected to increase more than 15%annually,reaching a projected market volume of nearly$220 billion by 2025.As the e-commerce market(both domestic and cross-border)further expands,the demand for faster and more reliable movement of goods will particula
295、rly benefit the air cargo market,especially in areas that lack well-established postal and ground network support.ChinaUSUKJapanKoreaBillions2,2502,0001,7501,5001,2501,000750500250E-Commerce Is a Key Growth FactorTop 5 E-Commerce Sales by Country(2021)Sources:US Census Bureau,eMarketerIntra-East Asi
296、a and Oceania55World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Multiple Factors Will Propel Air Cargo DevelopmentA variety of dynamics,both geographic and demographic,are speeding air cargo development.Home to 30%of the global population,the region inherently offers vast market potential.As the source of a high pr
297、oportion of the worlds consumer goods,it represents a stronghold of both supply and demand.And,while todays surging consumerism has fed explosive economic growth,geopolitical tensions elsewhere in the world soon may impose new stresses on intra-Asia supply chains.Asia is the largest continent,encomp
298、assing about 30%of Earths landmass.Its terrain varies widely:mountain ranges;plateaus;plains,deserts,and steppes;rivers,lakes,and seas.Many of these features impede ground transportation.Consequently,the range and effectiveness of ground-transport infrastructures vary by country and region.For examp
299、le,nations like Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan enjoy the advantages of well-developed ground infrastructures,and contribute significantly to Asias trade volumes.But the reach of an island-or peninsula-based ground system is limited to domestic markets.At the same time,despite the past decades rapid gr
300、ound-infrastructure developments,challenging terrains still limit access to vast expanses of China and Southeast Asia.Taken together,those dynamics mean that much of the regions trade still depends on air transport.Since water separates most of the regions major manufacturing centers(China,Japan,Sou
301、th Korea),maritime shipment has always been considered an efficient transportation mode.But,when COVID-19 constrained maritime shipping due to labor shortages and elevated transportation costs,some suppliers sought alternatives.As a result,air cargo services gained new business,particularly by deliv
302、ering high-value industrial goods and perishablesthe core air-cargo commoditiesreliably and on schedule.So,while air cargo and maritime shipping will continue to play complementary roles in the region,air cargo services will gain momentum by supporting the development of national economies that are
303、experiencing strong growth in per capita incomes.The leading commodity sectors in the regionmachinery and electrical equipment and computers;office communications;professional equipmentmake up almost half of the regions air cargo volumes.The perishables,chemicals,and related product groups each repr
304、esent about 20%of the trade,while the textiles,leather,and apparel sector accounts for 6%.25%19%18%11%9%6%11%Machinery and Electrical EquipmentChemicals and Related ProductsComputers,Offce,Communications,and Professional EquipmentPerishablesMiscellaneous GoodsTextiles,Leather,and ApparelOtherRegions
305、 Commodity Mix Is DiverseIntra-East Asia and Oceania56World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Air Cargo Growth Forecast at 5.7%Through 2041 Before 2019,intra-Asia air cargo traffic enjoyed an average annual growth of 5.2%over each preceding decade.However,the regions air cargo volume contracted by more tha
306、n 12%during 2019 and 2020,mostly due to trade disputes,pandemic constraints,and related impacts on air cargo capacity.At 2.6%,growth from 2011 to 2021 reduced the pre-pandemic trend by half.The region relies heavily on the belly capacity of widebody passenger aircraft.While dedicated freighter utili
307、zation remains historically high,it is still insufficient to make up for todays shortfall in belly capacity.Belly capacity,however,is expected to recover in the near term,as travel restrictions ease in many of the regions key markets.Economic forecasts show improved trade and continued robust GDP gr
308、owth,which will fuel the expansion of air trade in the region.Increased consumption in the region,combined with demand for intercontinental export markets,will support the return of stronger air cargo traffic growth.Along with some other,longer-haul flows that touch the Asia-Pacific region,the intra
309、-Asia and Oceania cargo market outlook is expected to remain robust.E-commerce growth and express network development will boost long-term growth in the region.We forecast an average annual growth of 5.7%over the next 20 years.Intra-East Asia and Oceania2000403540Mil
310、lionsHighBaseLowHistory2.6%growth per yearForecast5.7%growth per year6.3%5.7%5.0%Regions Air Cargo Market Will Grow 5.7%per Year57World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Intra-EuropeFor the purposes of this forecast,we define Europe as all 27 member countries of the European Union,plus Albania,Gibraltar,Ic
311、eland,Norway,Switzerland,Turkey,the United Kingdom,and the countries of the former Yugoslavia.Frankfurt,Germany58World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Still Recovering From Pandemic LowsThe intra-Europe air cargo market comprises approximately 4%of the worlds air cargo tonnage.However,because the region
312、is geographically compact,it includes only 1%of the worlds tonne-kilometers.Approximately 68%of all air cargo moving into,within,and out of Europe passes through one or more of the northern European countries(Belgium,Germany,France,Luxembourg,the Netherlands,and the United Kingdom).This concentratio
313、n has remained relatively stable throughout recent history.The proximity of markets within Europe generally limits routes to relatively short hauls,typically between 900 and 1,200 kilometers.This analysis surveys domestic and transborder intra-Europe air cargo traffic,regardless of its true origin o
314、r destination.Between 2014 and the onset of the pandemic,expansion in the intra-Europe air cargo market exceeded long-term trends.Growth peaked in 2017,jumping nearly 10%over 2016 levels.However,growth ground to a halt with the arrival of COVID-19,contracting nearly 22%in 2020.Recovery started in 20
315、21,as intra-Europe traffic grew about 17%over 2020.The scheduled freight sector fared slightly better,growing 23%over 2020,but trailing 2019s results by 4%.Meanwhile,accelerated growth in the business-to-consumer(e-commerce)sector helped to mitigate pandemic headwinds,and will continue to play a lar
316、ge role in the regions traffic recovery.Intra-EuropeHighlights Intra-Europe air cargo traffic exceeded 2020 levels by 17%,but remains 8.5%below 2019 levels.By the end of August,2022,trans-border general cargo tonnage had grown 6%over the same period in 2021.Despite the regions weak overall air cargo
317、 traffic performance,pandemic-related changes in consumer behavior drove significant growth in daily express shipments,which jumped approximately 14.5%in 2020.Led predominantly by express shipments and longer scheduled-freight hauls to eastern and southern Europe,intra-Europe air cargo traffic is fo
318、recast to expand at an annual rate of 2.5%through 2041.2001620212.52.01.51.00.53.03.5RTKS(billions)2.8%growthExpressMailScheduled FreightStill Recovering From the Pandemic,the Intra-Europe Air Cargo Market Grew 2.8%per Year in the Past DecadeExpress Makes Up Nearly 70%of Intra-Europe Tonn
319、es Moved by AirSource:AEA,ICAO,IATA,OAG,Cirium,Boeing20212.4MTonnesScheduled FreightMailExpressSource:AEA,ICAO,IATA,OAG,Cirium,Boeing59World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041Although intra-Europe air cargo tonnage recovered to 2.4 million tonnes in 2021,it still trails 2019 levels by approximately 9%.The
320、express sector made up less than 10%of intra-Europe air trade,over all,in the late 1980s,but now commands nearly 70%of this market.The express sectors share grew to 72%in 2020,at the height of the pandemic,as passenger services were suspended or greatly reduced.Intra-Europe Air Cargo Traffic Include
321、s Scheduled Freight,Mail,and ExpressThe three primary components of air cargo traffic within Europescheduled freight,mail,and expressgrew at differing rates.Express traffic averaged 2.8%growth per year during the past 20 years.Scheduled freight and mail,combined,grew at a slower rate of 1.8%during t
322、he same period.The intra-Europe air cargo market has expanded nearly 3%per year since 2011,although,prior to the pandemic,this rate averaged nearly 5%.Scheduled freight and mail traffic were stagnant in the first decade of the past 20 years,while the express segment alone accounted for nearly all gr
323、owth in the intra-Europe air cargo market.During the most recent decade,excluding the pandemic,scheduled freight and mail have recovered,with 6.8%and 1.6%average annual growth,respectively.Much of this growth emanates from network expansion among a small number of passenger airlines on the periphery
324、 of Europe.Except during the 20082009 global financial crisis and in 2019 and 2020,express traffic has grown steadily for the past two decades.While express traffic grew 6.4%in 2017 and 6.7%in 2018,this segment of intra-Europe air cargo traffic is estimated to have contracted 3.6%in 2019 and 19.2%in
325、 2020,largely as a result of industrial traffic weakness,network consolidation among major express carriers,and lockdowns earlier in the pandemic.Integrated express carrier traffic has made up more than half of all intra-Europe air cargo tonnage since 2003,reflecting the declining market share of sc
326、heduled freight and mail.It is important to note that express network traffic within Europe includes significant general freight,which fills out freighter loads when traffic is light in the small parcels and documents that traditionally make up express cargo.Nearly all air cargo growth since the lat
327、e 1990s is a result of the expansion of integrated air express carrier services.Of course,geography has traditionally favored surface transport within Europe,but the 1990 Schengen Agreement represented a turning point.It eliminated customs inspections of goods moving between several northern Europea
328、n countriesand,later,within most of the EU.This development facilitated intra-Europe truck transport,and reduced the demand for expedited scheduled airfreight service.Consequently,trucking has become the preferred mode of transport for most freight and mail,and even for small-parcel express shipment
329、s in short-haul markets.Intra-EuropeIntra-Europe Air Express Shipments Have Nearly Tripled Since 2001International Shipments OnlySource:Cargo Facts Consulting2004006008001000Estimated Daily Shipments(thousands)200120111.6X20212.8X60World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041While growth slowed during the 2008
330、2009 global financial crisis,the estimated number of daily international air express shipments expanded at an average rate of 4.5%annually between 2001 and 2011.Since then,daily shipment-count growth reaccelerated,showing an average 6.1%growth per year as consumers turned to online shopping during t
331、he pandemic.Daily intra-Europe express shipments expanded from approximately 326,000 per day in 2001 to 922,000 daily in 2021.Trucks Complement Scheduled Airplane Freight ServicesAir cargo has never been solely an airport-to-airport service.Instead,air cargo is one component of an infrastructure tha
332、t links the shipper and the consignee.Trucking offers door-to-door and factory-to-distribution center service,which air transport alone cannot provide.Scheduled airlines that serve the intra-Europe market have used truck flights(trucking services registered with their own flight numbers)to extend th
333、eir networks and increase scheduling flexibility.Airline-Scheduled Truck-Flight Frequency Returned to 2019 LevelsIntra-Europe520062007200820092000002001,0008006001,2001,400Weekly Frequency of Truck Flights(thousands)Truck Flight Airport PairsSource:OAG May 2022 Schedule Sample61World Air Cargo Forecast 20222041In Europe,long-haul truck-flight