《波音(BOEING):2022-2041年飞行员和和技术人员展望报告(英文版)(11页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《波音(BOEING):2022-2041年飞行员和和技术人员展望报告(英文版)(11页).pdf(11页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、1Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041Pilot and Technician Outlook 202220411Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041Boeings 2022 Pilot and Technician Outlook(PTO)projects that 602,000 new pilots,610,000 new maintenance technicians,and 899,000 new cabin crew members will be needed to fly and maintain th
2、e global commercial aviation fleet over the next 20 years.This forecast is limited to the commercial aviation sector,and assumes that air traffic demand will recover to 2019 levels by 2024.Consistent with last years forecast,this years outlook does not include business aviation and civil helicopter
3、demand.Commercial air travel recovery remains uneven as countries manage their market recoveries in disparate ways.Passenger demand has recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in many areas of the world and will accelerate as travelers regain a sense of safety and security.In the cargo market,accelera
4、ted e-commerce adoption spurred by the pandemic is likely to sustain freighter growth trends.To prepare for the recovery and subsequent growth,the aviation industry will need a long-term strategy that addresses upcoming labor challenges.Investment in early career-development programs and in tactics
5、that spark excitement among future aviators will be essential to a healthy aviation market for years to come.The aviation industry has proven resilient time and again despite major external and macroeconomic shocks.This historic persistence is driven by global commerce and business travel,as well as
6、 peoples desire to visit family and friends and to explore the world.While periodic market downturns are challenging,operators,in time,tend to resume their growth trajectories through collaboration,adaptation,and innovation.Accordingly,some operators today have emerged from the pandemic with updated
7、 business models that will foster sustainable and profitable growth.However,the aviation industrys pandemic-imposed shocks have not followed typical patterns,and the overall market has struggled to adjust.The demand for training and related services has shown signs of faster recovery,but the industr
8、y still faces lingering challenges.Among them are insufficient training capacity to support a significant personnel shortage,and the lag time involved in bringing personnel online while prioritizing safety.This outlook assumes continued investment in an uninterrupted pipeline of qualified personnel
9、to replace those who either reached retirement age or opted for voluntary early retirement during the pandemic.The return of personnel furloughed during the pandemic will provide only limited relief,as many have already left the industry.As a result,competition to recruit and retain top-tier talent
10、will be strong as more flights and routes are added.At the same time,the industry is experiencing a juniority across the workforce,further reinforcing the importance of relevant,affordable,and accessible training.Introduction2Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041Fortunately,innovation is widespread.
11、Personnel trained since the start of the pandemic have encountered new solutions adopted by schools,training providers,and regulators.Digital technologies,virtual formats,and other developments have helped bridge gaps in subject matter while improving the delivery and implementation of training.Meth
12、odologies continue to advance toward a holistic approach focused on competencies rather than prescriptive,task-based syllabuses.As commercial operators and training providers plan for the future,we will see new investments in artificial intelligence,machine learning,and mixed reality that will help
13、tomorrows students learn more quickly,efficiently,and effectively,and will lead to a safer,more efficient aviation industry.Forecast MethodologyNew personnel demand is calculated on the basis of a 20-year fleet forecast for commercial aircraft with more than 30 seats.By analyzing fleet growth,aircra
14、ft utilization,attrition rates,and regional crewing differences specific to aircraft type,Boeings PTO estimates the number of new pilots,maintenance technicians,and cabin crew members that will be needed worldwide.Year-over-year forecasts may vary due to factors that include regulatory changes,crew
15、productivity,and aircraft mix.This years forecast does not include assumptions for single-pilot commercial airplane operations,but it does consider impacts from alternative modes of transportation such as advanced air mobility and high-speed rail.Boeing continues to track the market for indications
16、of regulatory movement and will update upcoming forecasts accordingly.This year,Russias war in Ukraine has had a direct impact on the aviation industry,most notably that it will not be possible to deliver airplanes in Russia.Although there is demand for pilots,technicians and cabin crew in the Russi
17、a and Central Asia region,there is a high level of uncertainty of how long this situation will persist.For that reason,Boeing has chosen not to publish a pilot,technician and cabin crew forecast for this region.Introduction3Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041Air traffic demand has begun to recover
18、 in many markets around the world,occasionally surpassing 2019 levels in some countries.Vaccine access has increased dramatically,travel restrictions have eased,and people are eager to travel.The resulting surge in demand for pilots has restored many of the jobs affected by the pandemic,and created
19、openings for new pilots.While the industry refocuses on recovery and growth,operators must plan to ensure adequate staffing of qualified pilots to fly their routes.Because the industry already was heading toward a global pilot shortage before the pandemic,many airlines instituted cadet pilot program
20、s to fill their talent pipelines.Operators that paused or cancelled these programs during the pandemic will likely resume their focus on new pilot development.Concurrently,the industry as a whole must address a global shortage of certified flight instructors.However,accelerated training efforts will
21、 take years to pay off,while experienced pilots are in short supply today.Two factors have driven the shortfall globally and regionally:During the downturn,many junior pilots lost their jobs;some will not return,having changed careers and left the industry altogether.Through the same period,numerous
22、 veteran pilots accepted voluntary early retirement packages;those who remain will no longer be able to fly commercially once they reach the mandatory retirement age.As a result,competition for qualified pilots will remain strong over the next few years.New pilots will have much to gain by building
23、hours in flight instruction and through opportunities in government,business aviation,and general aviation.Aspiring pilots who begin flight training today will be positioned to seize emerging opportunities by the time they graduate.For the airlines,the pandemic meant significant uncertainty and chan
24、ge.Airline network planning and scheduling teams,for example,had to adapt to increasingly dynamic market conditions as flight bookings became more spontaneous and crew availability grew less predictable.These conditions are expected to persist in the near term,driving a temporary need for reserve pi
25、lots to fill anticipated gaps.Flight-training scheduling will remain a challenge as the surge in air traffic stimulates pilot recalls and hiring.The reasons are twofold:Pilots may need additional training before they return to the flight deck if their currency or type rating certifications have laps
26、ed.Pilots4Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041PilotsAdditionally,as airlines adjust their fleet mixes to meet demand,increasing numbers of pilots will be required to complete qualification or differences training.While many aspects of training have transitioned to digital formats over the past two
27、years,full-flight simulator training time is expected to remain a constant in commercial flight training.Training methodologies are evolving to focus on proficiencies and competencies rather than prescribed tasks,and it is expected that these priorities will gradually come to dominate the flight tra
28、ining curriculum.In conclusion,demand for pilots is likely to soar.Projections indicate that,over the next 20 years,602,000 new pilots will be needed to meet demand from commercial operators.5Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041The aviation maintenance market has endured a number of pandemic-relate
29、d challenges,led by the large-scale parking of the global fleet.Operators have employed various strategies to stem the outflow of cash,including deferments of non-critical maintenance that subsequently impact the labor market.Technician demand is,however,expected to recover robustly within the next
30、few years.As air traffic increases and aircraft come out of storage,aviation technicians will play a vital role in inspecting,repairing,and restoring them to airworthiness.While technicians have been busy in aircraft and engine preservation over the past two years,the near term will require addition
31、al labor to bring airplanes back into service.These complex tasks,including extensive checks,maintenance,and cleaning,can occupy each team for several weeks per aircraft.Technicians are critical to operational safety,and they play a key role in supporting the industrys recovery.But in some cases the
32、yre spread thin.They are leaving the workforce through retirement and natural attrition,and retirements will accelerate over the next five to ten years.All the while,fleets are expected to continue to grow.In mature aviation markets,the average age of the technician workforce keeps rising,while the
33、number of new entrants to the profession tapers off.Educational outreach efforts will be necessary to reverse this trend,and knowledge transfer to junior workers will remain essential to conserve critical expertise and specialized skills.Meanwhile,the role of the aviation maintenance technician cont
34、inues to evolve as new generations of aircraft join the global commercial fleet.New sensors and flight data recorders generate torrents of data,enabling maintenance providers to implement new,predictive solutions.These innovations drive demand for technicians who can accurately analyze,interpret,and
35、 act on the information generated.At the same time,older aircraft remain in service,requiring providers to employ technicians with vast skillsets who can maintain and repair aircraft built decades ago.In short,the coming years will demand flexible training that addresses not only traditional mainten
36、ance but also emerging,analytical skillsets.Technicians6Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041TechniciansAlready,prospective and current technicians can enhance their skills and knowledge with learning technologies and methodologies introduced since the pandemic.COVID-19-related restrictions accelera
37、ted the industrys transition to virtual learning,and it is expected that investments in modern and non-traditional instruction platforms will continue.The long-term outlook for learning modernization is positive,as schools and industry providers adapt to attract a new generation of students.Over the
38、 next 20 years,610,000 new technicians will be needed to meet demand from fleet operators and providers of maintenance,repair,and overhaul services.The combination of fleet growth,attrition,and replacement will continue to drive high demand for the foreseeable future.7Pilot and Technician Outlook 20
39、222041The cabin crew profession remains an attractive career for those interested in aviation,travel,and customer service.Cabin crew members will remain essential to ensure passenger safety and comfort,as well as to provide services that enable airline brand differentiation.Cabin crew members mainta
40、in a high level of professionalism as they work to ensure the safety of their passengers and the airplane.While typically known for customer service,their primary mission is to ensure safety in the cabin.Increasingly,cabin crew members are called upon to resolve,manage,and defuse disruptive situatio
41、ns.Cabin crew members are trained to respond to the most likely disorderly scenarios.This training is increasingly supplemented with augmented and virtual reality for more immersive learning experiences.On a related front,training in cabin hygiene and sanitation is expected to remain a high airline
42、priority,as health and safety continue to concern passengers.In addition,refresher courses and skills training will be in demand for cabin crew members who have been recalled from furlough or have been away from service for extended periods.Finally,regulatory requirements,attrition,replacement,and b
43、usiness-model differentiators will drive strong cabin crew demand across the industry.Over the next 20 years,899,000 new cabin crew personnel will be needed to meet demand from airlines.Cabin Crew8Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041Pilot and Technician Outlook by RegionNorth America435,000Europe44
44、9,000Russia and Central Asia*China412,000Latin America118,000Middle East202,000PilotsTechniciansAfrica67,000Cabin Crew MembersSoutheast Asia193,000South Asia114,000Northeast Asia84,000Oceania37,000New Personnel DemandMarket Outlook Summary2,111,00020222041Cabin Crew899,000Pilots602,000Technicians610
45、,000*PTO 2022 does not include a forecast for new personnel in Russia due to sanctions against aircraft exports.9Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041Outlook on a PageNew Personnel DemandRegionAfricaChinaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaNortheast AsiaOceaniaSouth AsiaSoutheast AsiaWorldTot
46、al New Personnel67,000 412,000 449,000 118,000 202,000 435,000 84,000 37,000 114,000 193,000 2,111,000 Pilots20,000 126,000 122,000 35,000 53,000 128,000 22,000 9,000 37,000 50,000 602,000 Technicians21,000 124,000 120,000 35,000 50,000 134,000 24,000 10,000 34,000 58,000 610,000 Cabin Crew26,000 16
47、2,000 207,000 48,000 99,000 173,000 38,000 18,000 43,000 85,000 899,000 10Pilot and Technician Outlook 20222041This year,Russias war in Ukraine has had a direct impact on the aviation industry,most This year,Russias war in Ukraine has had a direct impact on the aviation industry,most notably that it
48、 will not be possible to deliver airplanes in Russia.Although there is demand notably that it will not be possible to deliver airplanes in Russia.Although there is demand for pilots,technicians and cabin crew in the Russia and Central Asia region,there is a for pilots,technicians and cabin crew in t
49、he Russia and Central Asia region,there is a high level of uncertainty of how long this situation will persist.For that reason,Boeing has high level of uncertainty of how long this situation will persist.For that reason,Boeing has chosen not to publish a pilot,technician and cabin crew forecast for
50、this region.chosen not to publish a pilot,technician and cabin crew forecast for this region.The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only.The
51、se statements do not constitute an offer,promise,general information purposes only.These statements do not constitute an offer,promise,warranty,or guarantee of performance.Actual results may vary depending on certain warranty,or guarantee of performance.Actual results may vary depending on certain e
52、vents or conditions.This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose events or conditions.This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.other than that intended by Boeing.Copyright 2022 Boeing.All rights reserved.Copyright 2022 Boeing.All rights reserved.For more information,visit our