1、March 2020 LONG TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN 2020-2039(DRAFT)CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Transmission Division Ceylon Electricity Board Sri Lanka March 2020 Long Term Generation Expansion Planning Studies 2020-2039 Compiled and prepared by The Generation Pl

2、anning Unit Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka Long-term generation expansion planning studies are carried out every two years by the Transmission&Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka and this report is a biennial publicatio

3、n based on the results of the latest expansion planning studies.The data used in this study and the results of the study,which are published in this report,are intended purely for this purpose.Price Rs.4000.00 Ceylon Electricity Board,Sri Lanka,2020 Note:Extracts from this book should not be reprodu

4、ced without the approval of General Manager CEB Foreword The Report on Long Term Generation Expansion Planning Studies 2020-2039,presents the results of the latest expansion planning studies conducted by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board for the planning

5、 period 2020-2039,and replaces the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2018-2037.This report,gives a comprehensive view of the existing generating system,future electricity demand and future power generation options in addition to the expansion study results.The latest available data were used in th

6、e study.The Planning Team wishes to express their gratitude to all those who have assisted in preparing the report.We would welcome suggestions,comments and criticism for the improvement of this publication.March 2020.Transmission and Generation Planning Branch Letters:5th Floor,Head Office Bldg.Tr.

7、and Generation Planning Branch Ceylon Electricity Board 5th Floor,Ceylon Electricity Board Sir Chittampalam A.Gardinar Mw.P.O.Box 540 Colombo 02 Colombo,Sri Lanka e-mail:cegptgp.trceb.lk Tel:+94-11-2329812 Fax:+94-11-2434866 Prepared by:Reviewed by:Mr.V.B.Wijekoon Dr.M.N.S.Perera Chief Engineer(Gene

8、ration Planning)Additional General Manager(Transmission)Mr.M.B.S Samarasekara Former Chief Engineer(Generation Planning)Mr.P.L.G.Kariyawasam Former Additional General Manager(Transmission)Mr.M.L.Weerasinghe Deputy General Manager(Trans.&Gen.Planning)Electrical Engineers Mr.R.B Wijekoon Mr.J Nanthaku

9、mar Mrs.D.C Hapuarachchi Former Deputy General Manager(Trans.&Gen.Planning)Mrs.M.D.V Fernando Mr.K.H.A Kaushalya Mr.K.A.M.N.Pathiratne Any clarifications sought or request for copies of the report should be sent to the Deputy General Manager(Transmission and Generation Planning)at the address above.

10、Page i CONTENT Page Contents i Annexes v List of Tables vi List of Figures viii Acronyms x Executive Summary E-1 1 Introduction 1-1 1.1 Background 1-1 1.2 The Economy 1-1 1.2.1 Electricity and Economy 1-2 1.2.2 Economic Projections 1-2 1.3 Energy Sector 1-3 1.3.1 Energy Supply 1-3 1.3.2 1.3.3 Energy

11、 Demand Emissions From Energy Sector 1-4 1-5 1.4 Electricity Sector 1-6 1.4.1 1.4.2 Ease of Doing Business Access to electricity 1-6 1-7 1.4.3 Electricity Consumption 1-8 1.4.4 Capacity and Demand 1-9 1.4.5 Generation 1-11 1.5 1.6 Implementation of Planning Cycle Planning Process 1-14 1-14 1.7 Objec

12、tives 1-14 1.8 Structure of the Report 1-15 2.The Existing and Committed Generating System 2-1 2.1 Hydro and Other Renewable Power Generation 2-1 2.1.1 CEB Owned Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants 2-1 2.1.2 Other Renewable Power Plants Owned by IPPs 2-5 2.1.3 Capability of Existing Hydropower Pl

13、ants 2-5 2.2 Thermal Generation 2-7 2.2.1 CEB Thermal Plants 2-7 2.2.2 Independent Power Producers(IPPs)2-10 3 Electricity Demand:Past and the Forecast 3-1 3.1 Past Demand 3-1 3.2 3.3 Policies,Guidelines and Future Major Development Projects for Electricity Demand Forecast 3.2.1 Policies and Guideli

14、nes 3.2.2 Future Major Development Projects Demand Forecasting Methodology 3-3 3-3 3-3 3-4 3.3.1 Medium Term Demand Forecast(2020-2023)3-4 3.3.2 Long Term Demand Forecast(2024-2044)3-5 3.4 Base Demand Forecast 3-10 3.5 Development of END USER Model(MAED)for Load Projection 3-11 3.6 Demand Forecast S

15、cenarios 3-13 Page ii 3.7 Comparison with Past Forecasts 3-15 3.8 Electricity Demand Reduction and Demand Side Management 3-16 4 Thermal Power Generation Options for Future Expansions 4-1 4.1 Thermal Options 4-1 4.1.1 Available Studies for Thermal Plants 4-1 4.1.2 Thermal Power Candidates 4-2 4.1.3

16、Candidate Thermal Plant Details 4-2 4.2 Fuel 4-4 4.3 Screening of Generation Options 4-9 4.3.1 Thermal Plant Specific Cost Comparison 4-10 4.4 Current Status of Non Committed Thermal Projects 4-10 4.5 India-Sri Lanka Electricity Grid Interconnection 4-12 5 Renewable Generation Options for Future Exp

17、ansions 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Major Renewable Energy Development 5-2 5.2.1 Available Studies on Hydro Projects 5-2 5.2.2 Committed Hydro Power Projects 5-3 5.2.3 Candidate Hydro Power Projects 5-4 5.2.4 Details of the Candidate Hydro Power 5-5 5.3 Hydro Power Capacity Extensions 5-6 5.3.1 Mah

18、aweli Complex 5-6 5.3.2 Samanala Complex 5-8 5.3.3 Laxapana Complex 5-8 5.4 Other Renewable Energy Development 5-9 5.4.1 Projected future development 5-10 5.4.2 Wind Power Development 5-14 5.4.2.1 Development of Mannar Wind Farm Project 5-14 5.4.2.2 Development of Pooneryn Renewable Energy park 5-15

19、 5.4.3 Solar Power Development 5-15 5.4.3.1 Development of Rooftop Solar PV Installations 5-16 5.4.3.2 Development of Small Scale Distributed Solar PV Project development 5-17 5.4.3.3 Development of large Scale Solar PV Parks 5-17 5.4.4 Mini-hydro Development 5-17 5.4.5 Biomass Power Development 5-1

20、8 5.4.6 Municipal Solid Waste Based Power Generation 5-18 5.4.7 Other Forms of Renewable Energy Technologies 5-19 5.4.8 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Study 2020-2030 5-19 5.4.9 Development of Grid Scale Storage Technologies 5-20 5.4.9.1 Pumped Storage Hydro Power Development 5-20 5.4.9.2 Develop

21、ment of Grid Scale Battery Energy Storages 5-22 6 Generation Expansion Planning Methodology and Parameters 6-1 6.1 Generation Planning Code 6-1 6.2 National Energy Policy and Strategies 6-1 6.3 6.4 Policy on Composition of Electricity Generation of Sri Lanka Preliminary Screening of Generation Optio

22、ns 6-2 6-3 6.5 Planning Software Tools 6-3 6.4.1 SDDP and NCP Models 6-3 Page iii 6.4.2 MAED Model 6-3 6.4.3 WASP Package 6-4 6.4.4 MESSAGE Software 6-4 6.4.5 OPTGEN Software 6-4 6.5 Hydro Power Development 6-5 6.6 Assessment of Environmental Implications and Financial Scheduling 6-5 6.7 Modeling of

23、 Other Renewable Energy 6-5 6.8 Study Parameters 6-6 6.8.1 Study Period 6-6 6.8.2 Economic Ground Rules 6-6 6.8.3 Plant Commissioning and retirements 6-6 6.8.4 Cost of Energy Not Served(ENS)6-6 6.8.5 Reserve Margin 6-6 6.8.6 Loss of Load Probability(LOLP)6-7 6.8.7 Discount Rate 6-7 6.8.8 Plant Capit

24、al Cost Distribution among Construction Years 6-7 6.8.9 Assumptions and Constraints Applied 6-7 7 Generation Expansion Planning Study Development of the Reference Case 7-1 7.1 Introduction 7-1 7.2 Reference Case Plan 7-1 7.2.1 System Capacity Distribution 7-3 7.2.2 System Energy Share 7-4 7.2.3 Envi

25、ronmental Emissions and Implications 7-5 8 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study Base Case Plan 8-1 8.1 Results of the Preliminary Screening of Generation Options 8-1 8.2 Government Policy on Composition of Electricity Generation 8-2 8.3 Base Case Plan 8-3 8.3.1 System Capacity Distribution

26、 8-7 8.3.2 System Energy Share 8-11 8.3.3 Fuel,Operation and Maintenance Cost 8-13 8.3.4 Reserve Margin and LOLP 8-16 8.3.5 Spinning Reserve Requirement 8-17 8.4 Impact of Demand Variation on Base Case Plan 8-17 8.5 Impact of Discount Rate Variation on Base Case Plan 8-18 8.6 Impact of Fuel Price Se

27、nsitivity on Base Case Plan 8-19 8.7 Summary 8-20 9 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study Scenario Analysis 9-1 9.1 LTGEP 2018-2037 Base Case Equivalent Scenario 9-1 9.2 Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Development Scenario 9-2 9.3 HVDC Interconnection Scenario 9-3 9.4 Comparison of Energy Sup

28、ply alternatives in 2039 9-5 9.4.1 Global Context 9-5 9.4.2 Sri Lankan Context 9-6 10 Environmental Implications 10-1 10.1 Greenhouse Gases 10-1 10.2 Country Context 10-1 10.2.1 Overview of Emissions in Sri Lanka 10-1 Page iv 10.2.2 Ambient Air Quality&Stack Emission Standards 10-2 10.3 Uncontrolled

29、 Emission Factors 10-4 10.4 Emission Control Technologies 10-5 10.5 Emission Factors Used 10-6 10.6 Environmental Implications Base Case 10-8 10.7 Environmental Implications Other Scenarios 10-9 10.7.1 Comparison of Emissions 10-9 10.7.2 Cost Impacts of CO2 Emission Reduction 10-12 10.8 Climate Chan

30、ge 10-13 10.8.1 Background 10-13 10.8.2 Climate Finance 10-16 10.8.3 Sri Lankan Context 10-16 10.9 Environmental Impact Mitigation Renewable Energy Development 10-21 10.10 Externalities 10-22 11 Recommendations of the Base Case Plan 11-1 11.1 Introduction 11-1 11.2 Recommendations for the Base Case

31、Plan 11-1 11.2.1 Short Term Recommendations for 2020 and 2021 11-1 11.2.2 Long Term Recommendations 11-2 12 Implementation and Investment of Generation Projects 12-1 12.1 Committed and Candidate Power Plants in the Base Case 12-1 12.1.1 Committed Plants 12-1 12.1.2 Present Status of the Committed an

32、d Candidate Power Plants 12-1 12.2 Power Plants Identified in the Base Case Plan from 2020 to 2030 12-3 12.3 Implementation Schedule 12-4 12.4 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2020 2039 and Financial Options 12-6 12.4.1 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2020 2039 12-6 12.4.2 Financial Options 12-

33、6 13 Contingency Analysis 13-1 13.1 Risk Events 13-1 13.1.1 Variation in Hydrology 13-1 13.1.2 Variation in Demand 13-1 13.1.3 Delays in Implementation of Power Plants 13-2 13.1.4 Long Period Outage of a Major Power Plant 13-3 13.2 Evaluation of Contingencies 13-3 11.2.1 Single Occurrence of Risk Ev

34、ents 13-3 11.2.2 Simultaneous Occurrence of Several Risk Events 13-5 13.3 Conclusion 13-9 14 Revision to Previous Plan 14-1 14.1 Government Policies 14-1 14.1 Demand Forecast 14-2 14.2 Fuel Prices Variation 14-3 14.3 Revised Capability of Existing Hydro Power Plants 14-4 14.4 Integration of Other Re

35、newable Energy(ORE)14-4 14.5 Introduction of Battery Storage as an ESS 14-4 14.6 Environmental Emissions 14-5 14.7 Overall Comparison 14-6 Page v References Annexes Annex 2.1 Reservoir System in Mahaweli,Kelani and Walawe River Basins A2-1 Annex 3.1 Scenarios of the Demand Forecast A3-1 Annex 4.1 Ca

36、ndidate Thermal Plant Data Sheets A4-1 Annex 5.1 Candidate Hydro Plant Data Sheets A5-1 Annex 5.2 Other Renewable Energy Tariff A5-3 Annex 5.3 Other Renewable Energy Projections for Low&High Demand Scenarios A5-4 Annex 5.4 Methodology of the Renewable Energy Integration Study 2020-2030 A5-5 Annex 5.

37、5 Modeled Wind Turbine Characteristics and Power Plant Output A5-6 Annex 5.6 Solar and Mini-Hydro Plant Production Profiles A5-7 Annex 5.7 Cost Details Other Renewable Energy A5-9 Annex 6.1 Methodology of the Screening of Curve A6-1 Annex 8.1 Screening of Generation Options A8-1 Annex 8.2 Capacity B

38、alance for the Base Case 2020-2039 A8-3 Annex 8.3 Energy Balance for the Base Case 2020-2039 A8-4 Annex 8.4 Annual Energy Generation and Plant Factors A8-5 Annex 8.5 Fuel Requirements and Expenditure on Fuel A8-11 Annex 8.6 High Demand Case A8-12 Annex 8.7 Low Demand Case A8-14 Annex 9.1 Base Case e

39、quivalent to 2018-2037 A9-1 Annex 9.2 Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Development A9-3 Annex 9.3 India-Sri Lanka HVDC Interconnection Scenario A9-5 Annex 12.1 Investment Plan for Major Hydro&Thermal Projects(Base Case),2020-2039 A12-1 Annex 12.2 Investment Plan for Major Wind&Solar Developments(Base C

40、ase),2020-2039 A12-4 Annex 14.1 Actual Generation Expansions and the Plans from 1992-2018 A14-1 Annex 15 Addendum A15 Page vi LIST OF TABLES Page E.1 Base Load Forecast:2020-2044 E-10 E.2 Base Case Plan(2020-2039)E-11 1.1 Demographic and Economic Indicators of Sri Lanka 1-2 1.2 Forecast of GDP Growt

41、h Rate in Real Terms 1-3 1.3 Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 15 1.4 CO2 Emissions in the Recent Past 16 1.5 Installed Capacity and Peak Demand 1-9 1.6 Electricity Generation 1994 2018 1-11 2.1 Existing and Committed Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants 2-2 2.2 Existing Other Renew

42、able Energy(ORE)Capacities 2-5 2.3 Expected Monthly Hydro Power and Energy Variation of the Existing Hydro Plants for the Selected Hydro Conditions 2-6 2.4 Plant Retirement Schedule 2-7 2.5 Details of Existing and Committed Thermal Plants 2-8 2.6 Characteristics of Existing and Committed CEB Owned T

43、hermal Plants 2-9 2.7 Details of Existing and Committed IPP Plants 2-10 3.1 Electricity Demand in Sri Lanka,2004-2018 3-1 3.2 Variables Used for Econometric Modeling 3-5 3.3 Base Load Forecast 2020-2044 3-10 3.4 Main&Sub Sector Breakdown for MAED 3-11 3.5 Annual Average Growth Rate 2020-2045 3-12 3.

44、6 MAED Reference Scenario 3-12 3.7 Comparison of Past Demand Forecasts with Actuals(in GWh)3-15 4.1 Capital Cost Details of Thermal Expansion Candidates 4-3 4.2 Characteristics of Candidate Thermal Plants 4-3 4.3 Oil Prices and Characteristics for Analysis 4-5 4.4 Coal Prices and Characteristics for

45、 Analysis 4-6 4.5 Associated Cost for LNG Development 4-8 4.6 Specific Cost of Candidate Thermal Plants in USCts/kWh(LKR/kWh)4-10 5.1 Characteristics of Candidate Hydro Plants 5-5 5.2 Capital Cost Details of Hydro Expansion Candidates 5-6 5.3 Details of Victoria Expansion 5-7 5.4 Expansion Details o

46、f Samanalawewa Power Station 5-8 5.5 Energy and Demand Contribution from Other Renewable Sources 5-9 5.6 Projected Future Development of ORE(Assumed as Committed in Base Case Plan)5-10 5.7 Wind resource regimes and expected annual capacity factors 5-14 5.8 Solar resource regimes and average capacity

47、 factors 5-15 5.9 Estimated capital cost of development for proposed PSPP sites locations 5-22 6.1 Committed Power Plants 6-8 6.2 Candidate Power Plants 6-8 6.3 Plant Retirement Schedule 6-9 7.1 Generation Expansion Planning Study Reference Case(2020-2039)7-2 7.2 Capacity Additions by Plant Type Ref

48、erence Case(2020-2039)7-3 Page vii 7.3 Reduction in Annual CO2 Emissions in Base Case Plan(In CO2 million tons)7-5 8.1 Generation Expansion Planning Study-Base Case(2020-2039)8-4 8.2 Generation Expansion Planning Study-Base Case Capacity Additions(2018 2037)8-6 8.3 Capacity Additions by Plant Type B

49、ase Case 8-7 8.4 Capacity Distribution for Selected Years in Base Case 8-10 8.5 Cost of Fuel,Operation and Maintenance of Base Case 8-13 8.6 Capacity Additions by Plant Type High Demand Case 8-17 8.7 Capacity Additions by Plant Type Low Demand Case 8-18 8.8 Fuel Price Escalation percentages(from 202

50、0 prices)8-19 8.9 Cost impact of fuel price escalation of Base case(million US$)8-19 8.10 Comparison of the Sensitivities of the Base Case Plan 8-20 9.1 Capacity Additions by Plant Type Base Case equivalent to LTGEP 2018-2037 9-2 9.2 Capacity Additions by Plant Type Energy Mix with Nuclear Power Dev

51、elopment 9-3 9.3 Capacity Additions by Plant Type HVDC Interconnection Scenario 9-4 9.4 Present&Projected Power Generation Mix in Other Countries 9-5 10.1 CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion 10-2 10.2 Ambient Air Quality Standards and Proposed Stack Emission Standards of Sri Lanka 10-3 10.3 Compariso

52、n of Ambient Air Quality Standards of Different Countries and Organisation 10-3 10.4 Comparison of Emission Standards for Coal Power Plants of Different Countries and Organisations 10-4 10.5 Uncontrolled Emission Factors(by Plant Technology)10-5 10.6 Abatement Factors of Typical Control Devices 10-6

53、 10.7 Emission Factors of the Coal Power Plants 10-7 10.8 Emission Factors per Unit Generation 10-7 10.9 Air Emissions of Base Case 10-8 10.10 Summary of Major COP Decisions 10-14 11.1 Short Term Power Requirement 11-1 11.2 Potential Locations for Future Power Generation Projects 11-4 12.1 ORE Addit

54、ions 2020-2030 12-4 13.1 Expected Annual Energy Output of Five Hydro Conditions and the Difference Compared with Annual Average Hydro Energy 13-1 13.2 Implementation Delays of plants Case 1 13-2 13.3 Implementation Delays of Committed Power Plants 13-3 13.4 Details of Risk Event Outage of a Major Po

55、wer Plant 13-3 13.5 Estimation of Annual Energy Shortage Risk with Plant Implementation Delay Risk(Case 1)13-3 13.6 Breakdown of the capacity additions identified for 2019-2021 period 13-4 13.7 Estimation of Annual Energy Shortage Risk with Plant Implementation Delay Risk(Case 2)13-4 13.8 Impact of

56、Single Occurrence of Risk Events for the Basecase of LTGEP 2020-2039 13-5 13.9 Estimation of Annual Energy Deficit and Energy Shortage Risk 13-6 13.10 Available Plant Capacities in Critical Period for Each Year 13-6 Page viii LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 Growth Rates of GDP and Electricity Sales 1-2 1.2

57、 Share of Gross Primary Energy Supply by Source 1-4 1.3 Gross Energy Consumption by Sectors including Non-Commercial Sources 1-4 1.4 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2016 1-6 1.5 Level of Electrification 1-7 1.6 Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2005-2018)1-8 1.7 Sectorial-Consumption of Electr

58、icity(2018)1-8 1.8 Sri Lanka Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2003-2017)1-9 1.9 Asian Countries Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2004-2016)1-9 1.10 Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand 1-10 1.11 Other Renewable Energy Capacity Development 1-10 1.12 Generation Share in the Recent Past 1-12 1.

59、13 Renewable Share in the Recent Past 1-12 1.14 World Electricity Generation(GWh)1-13 1.15 World Electricity Generation by Source as Percentage 1-13 2.1 Location of Existing,Committed and Candidate Power Stations 2-3 2.2 Potential of Hydropower System from Past 35 Years Hydrological Data 2-6 3.1 Pas

60、t System Loss 3-2 3.2 Past trend in the Load factor 3-2 3.3 Change in Daily Load Curve Over the Last Eight Years 3-2 3.4 Consumption Share Among Different Consumer Categories 3-3 3.5 Net Loss Forecast 2020-2044 3-7 3.6(a)Analysis of Night peak,Day peak and Off peak Trends 2011-2017 3-8 3.6(b)Load Pr

61、ofile Shape Forecast 3-8 3.7 System Load Factor Forecast 2020-2044 3-9 3.8 Generation Forecast Comparison 3-13 3.9 Peak Demand Forecast Comparison 3-13 3.10 Generation Forecast of Low,High,Long Term Time Trend and MAED with Base 3-14 3.11 Peak Demand Forecast of Low,High,Long Term Time Trend and MAE

62、D with Base 3-14 4.1 World Bank and IMF Crude Oil Price Forecast 4-4 4.2 World Bank and IMF Coal Price Forecast 4-5 4.3 World Bank and IMF Natural Gas Price Forecast 4-7 5.1 Total Renewable Energy Capacity Development 5-11 5.2 Past and Future Other Renewable Energy(ORE)Capacity Development 5-12 5.3

63、Energy Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Share for Next 20 Years 5-13 5.4 Three Selected Sites for PSPP after Preliminary Screening 5-21 7.1 Cumulative Capacity by Plant Type in Reference Case 7-4 7.2 Energy Mix over next 20 years in Reference Case 7-5 8.1 Cumulative Capacity by Pl

64、ant type in Base Case 8-8 8.2 Capacity Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 8-9 8.3 Capacity Wise Renewable Contribution over next 20 years 8-9 8.4 Firm Capacity Share over next 20 years in Base Case 8-10 8.5 Energy Mix over next 20 years in Base Case 8-11 8.6 Percentage Share of Energy Mix over next

65、 20 years in Base Case 8-12 8.7 Renewable Contribution over next 20 years based on energy resources 8-12 8.8 Percentage Share of Renewables over next 20 years in Base Case 8-13 Page ix 8.9 Fuel Requirement of Base Case 8-14 8.10 Expected Variation of Fuel Cost in Base Case 8-14 8.11 Expected Annual

66、Coal and Natural Gas Requirement of the Base Case 8-15 8.12 Variation of Reserve Margin in Base Case 8-16 9.1 Capacity Share Comparison in 2039 9-6 9.2 Energy Share Comparison in 2039 9-6 10.1 Average Emission Factor 10-2 10.2 Comparison of Stack Emission of Coal Power Plants 10-4 10.3 PM,SO2,NOx an

67、d CO2 emissions of Base Case Scenario 10-9 10.4 SO2,NOx and CO2 Emissions per kWh generated 10-9 10.5 SO2 Emissions 10-10 10.6 NOx Emissions 10-10 10.7 CO2 Emissions 10-11 10.8 Particulate Matter Emissions 10-11 10.9 Average Emission Factor Comparison 10-12 10.10 Comparison of System Cost with CO2 E

68、missions 10-12 10.11 Comparison of Incremental Cost for CO2 Reduction 10-13 10.12 CO2 Emission Reduction in Base Case Compared to Reference Case 10-18 12.1 Implementation Plan 2020-2039 12-5 12.2 Investment Plan for Base Case 2020 2039 12-6 13.1 High and Low Energy Demand Variation Compared with the

69、 Base Demand 13-2 13.2 Installed Capacity with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 1)13-7 13.3 Available Capacity in Critical Period with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 1)13-7 13.4 Available Capacity in Critical Period with Peak Demand(Contingency Event 2)13-8 13.5 Available Capacity in Critical Period wit

70、h Peak Demand(Contingency Event 3)13-8 14.1 Comparison of 2019 and 2017 Energy Demand Forecasts 14-2 14.2 Comparison of 2019 and 2017 Peak Demand Forecasts 14-3 14.3 Fuel price variation of LTGEP 2017 and LTGEP 2014 14-3 14.4 Comparison of ORE Capacity Addition between LTGEP 2019<GEP 2017 14-4 14.

71、5 CO2 and Particulate Emissions 14-5 14.6 SOx and NOx Emissions 14-5 Page x ACRONYMS ADB -Asian Development Bank API -Argus/McCloskeys Coal price Index bcf -Billion Cubic Feet BOO -Build,Own and Operate BOOT -Build,Own,Operate and Transfer CCY -Combined Cycle Power Plant CEA -Central Environmental A

72、uthority CEB -Ceylon Electricity Board CECB -Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau CIDA -Canadian International Development Agency CIF -Cost,Insurance and Freight CDM -Clean Development Mechanism CER -Certified Emission Reduction COP -Conference of Parties DSM -Demand Side Management DTF -Distance

73、to Frontier EIA -Environmental Impact Assessment ENS -Energy Not Served EOI -Expression of Interest ESP -Electrostatic Precipitator FGD -Flue Gas Desulphurization FOB -Free On Board FOR -Forced Outage Rate GDP -Gross Domestic Product GHG -Green House Gases GIS -Geographic Information System GT -Gas

74、Turbine HHV -Higher Heating Value HVDC -High Voltage Direct Current IAEA -International Atomic Energy Agency IDC -Interest During Construction IEA -International Energy Agency IMF -International Monetary Fund INDC -Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC -Inter-Governmental Panel on Climat

75、e Change IPP -Independent Power Producer JBIC -Japan Bank for International Cooperation JICA -Japan International Cooperation Agency LKR -Sri Lanka Rupees KPS -Kelanatissa Power Station LCC -Line Commutated Converter LCOE -Levelised Cost of Electricity LDC -Load Duration Curve Page xi LF -Load Facto

76、r LNG -Liquefied Natural Gas LOLP -Loss of Load Probability LTGEP -Long Term Generation Expansion Plan mscfd -Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day MAED -The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand MMBTU -Million British Thermal Units MTPA -Million Tons Per Annum NDC -Nationally Determined Contributions N

77、EPS -National Energy Policy and Strategy NG -Natural Gas OECD -Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECF -Overseas Economic Co-operation Fund ORE -Other Renewable Energy OTEC -Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion O&M -Operation and Maintenance PF -Plant Factor PM -Particulate Matter PPA

78、 -Power Purchase Agreement PSPP -Pumped Storage Power Plant PV -Present Value RFP -Request For Proposals SAM -System Advisor Model SDDP -Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming ST -Steam Turbine UNFCCC -United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID -United States Agency for International D

79、evelopment US$-American Dollars WASP -Wien Automatic System Planning Package WB -World Bank WHO -World Health Organization VSC -Voltage Source Converter Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background.As per section 24(1)(c)of the Sri Lanka Electricity Act no 20 of 2009(as amended),C

80、eylon Electricity Board(CEB)as the Transmission Licensee has a statutory duty to ensure that there is sufficient capacity from generation plants to meet reasonable forecast demand for electricity.Additionally,under section 17(c)of the Act,CEB is required to add such capacity on the most economically

81、 advantageous terms and in the most transparent manner.CEB prepares Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan(LTGEP)once in every two years for a 20-year period ahead to ensure that the firm capacity technologies that the CEB is required to procure meets the principle of least cost.Hence,this LTGEP serves

82、 as the first check of least cost before procurement is carried competitively to further ensure least cost and transparency.In addition,CEBs LTGEPs also provide the capacity additions from Non-Conventional Renewable Energy(NCRE)based generating technologies,(termed as Other Renewable Energy-ORE in t

83、his report)to supplement firm generating capacity and to maintain renewable share and fuel diversity to meet government policy guidelines.The specific government policy as applicable to the Electricity Industry is titled the General Policy Guidelines in Respect of the Electricity Industry and the me

84、thodology to formulate and approve such policy guidelines is stipulated under section 5 of the Sri Lanka Electricity Act no 20 of 2009(as amended)and under section 30 of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka(PUCSL)Act no 35 of 2002.The first General Policy Guidelines in respect of the Electri

85、city Industry published after the enactment of the Sri Lanka Electricity Act was in 2009 and remained until April 2019 where an amendment was issued on the 10th April 2019.As the planning studies contained in this LTGEP 2020-2039 has commenced in 2018 and the first draft submission for the approval

86、of the Public Utilities Commission was made in May 2019,the policy guidelines available during the preparation of this report were the guidelines as contained in the original General Policy Guidelines as issued in 2009.However,all possible efforts have been taken to incorporate as much policy change

87、s as contained in the amended policy guideline that was published in April 2019.This report presents the generation expansion planning studies carried out by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board,for the period 2020-2039.The report includes information on th

88、e existing generation system,generation planning methodology,system demand forecast,investment and implementation plans for the proposed projects and recommends the most economical sequence of generating capacity additions to meet the least cost E-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 and government poli

89、cies while maintaining the statutory reliability criteria.The final summarized results of the planning studies are presented in the“revised base case plan as given in Table E.2 Electricity Demand is envisaged to grow at 4.9%annually for the next 20 years The demand forecasting methodology as used in

90、 the planning studies consists of a combination of medium-term forecast and long-term forecasts.Such forecasts also incorporate planned new mega development projects identified by the government.Five-year sales forecasts prepared by the five distribution licensees and time trend analysis of historic

91、al demand are used to determine the medium-term forecast.The econometric approach is used to make the long-term forecast.The econometric approach first develops a correlation between past electricity sales and significant independent variables in different sectors and then the projections available

92、for such variables are substituted to forecast future demand.Even though demand-side management(DSM)is considered as an important tool to conserve and optimize the use of electrical energy at the end-user level,demand reduction due to possible DSM measures are not considered in the forecasts.The res

93、ponsibility to carry out energy efficiency,energy conservation and demand-side management programs is primarily vested with Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority of Sri Lanka(SLSEA).The Operational Demand Side Management is to be carried out by the Presidential Task Force on Energy Demand Side Mana

94、gement(PTF on EDSM)and guided by a National Steering Committee(NSC).Thus,electrical utilities do not have control over the implementation of DSM programs at present.Further,the DSM forecasts and targets are ambitious and their actual realization is based on many other external factors,including end-

95、user willingness.Therefore,demand reduction due to possible DSM measures are not considered in the forecasts that resulted in the base case plan as presented in this report.However,if any conservation is achieved through DSM activities,actual reductions to demand as a result would be captured and re

96、flected in the demand forecasts of subsequent LTGEPs.The shape of the daily load profile is expected to change gradually and the growth rate of the day peak shows a higher increase than the growth rate of the night peak.It is estimated that the day peak would surpass the night peak by 2027.The forec

97、asted annual average growth rate of energy demand for the next 20 years is 4.9%and the annual peak demand growth rate is around 4.6%.The load forecast used is given in Table E.1.Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-3 National Obligations on Mitigating Global and Local Environmental Implications Planning

98、 Studies as contained in this report are carried out to meet all the environmental and climate change obligations of Sri Lanka during the 20 year planning horizon.Sri Lanka,being a partner to COP21 Paris agreement on mitigation of global climate change induced impacts,presented the Nationally Determ

99、ined Contributions(NDC)to strengthen global efforts of both mitigation and adaptation.In response to challenges posed by climate change,Sri Lanka has taken several positive steps by introducing national policies,strategies and actions to mitigate climate change induced impacts.According to the ratif

100、ied NDCs in September 2016 by UNFCCC,among mitigation strategies,Sri Lanka expects a 4%unconditional and 16%conditional reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector.This is incorporated in the LTGEP 2020-2039 by integrating more Other Renewable Energy(ORE)based generation and low

101、carbon thermal generating options to meet the Sri Lankas obligations in COP21 Paris agreement on mitigation of global climate change induced impacts.In addition,the latest General Policy Guidelines for Electricity Industry(as issued in April 2019)requires Non-Conventional Renewable Energy(NCRE),(ref

102、erred to as ORE in this report)to be developed to the optimum levels to diversify generation mix and to minimise dependence on imported resources.It requires ORE resources to be promoted based on a priority order arrived at considering resource potential,economics,the maturity of the technology and

103、quality of supply.First three ORE resources in this priority order are identified as mini-hydro,wind and solar followed by other ORE resources.The policy guidelines also highlight the need to progress with the vision to achieve 50%of electricity generated from renewable sources(under favourable weat

104、her conditions)by 2030.In addition,the policy also advocates Other Renewable Energy based generation to be optimally developed to provide 1/3rd of the power demand by 2030.Planning studies as contained in this report has incorporated above policy requirements(though they are issued at the end of the

105、 planning studies)as much as possible.When a major power project is initiated,a detailed environmental impact assessment(EIA)is carried out taking into account the inter-related socio-economic,cultural and human-health impacts and impacts to the ecological systems,both beneficial and adverse.These a

106、re performed as location specific studies.Necessary mitigation measures are also identified during such Environmental Impact Assessments and such requisites are included in preparing RFPs of relevant power projects,thereby ensuring environmental commitments during implementation stage as well.E-4 Ge

107、neration Expansion Plan-2019 Committed and Candidate Firm Power alternatives for the Growing Electricity Demand The latest General Policy Guidelines states that;While a high priority is to be given to environmental protection,a suitable generation mix from firm energy sources must be maintained to s

108、trengthen the countrys economy and energy security.It also stipulates that;to ensure security,availability and reliability of supply,installed firm power capacity(based on firm energy sources such as fossil fuels and storage hydro)shall be there at all time to provide at least a 2/3rd of the demand

109、for power.The policy also gives the diversified fuel mix in the installed firm power capacity to be maintained by 2030,namely,30%based on Liquefied Natural Gas or indigenous Natural Gas,30%on Coal,25%on large storage hydro and 15%utilizing furnace oil produced during local refinery process as a by-p

110、roduct and ORE based firm energy sources(such as biomass).The candidate thermal power plant options considered for the study are;45 MW gas turbines,300 MW diesel-fired combined cycle plants,150 MW,300 MW&600 MW natural gas-fired combined cycle plants,300 MW high efficient and 600 MW supercritical co

111、al-fired steam plants and 15 MW reciprocating engines.Further,the introduction of 600 MW nuclear power plant is also considered in a separate scenario.3 x 35 MW gas turbines at Kelanitissa as identified in the 2018-2037 LTGEP were considered as a committed project and the same is mentioned as 130 MW

112、 capacity in this revised LTGEP 2020-2039 considering updated information available.A 300 MW dual-fuel(natural gas/auto diesel)fired combined cycle power plant was identified to be commissioned by 2019 in previous LTGEPs(LTGEP 2015-2034 and LTGEP 2018-2037).This power plant was planned to be constru

113、cted at Kerawalapitiya.Though the procurement process for the same was initiated,the award could not be made due to legal disputes.Non-implementation of such planned low-cost power capacities necessitated adding supplementary power capacity for shorter/medium terms as stop-gap measures until planned

114、 long term capacities are added to ensure reliability and to avoid possible power shortage.320 MW of furnace oil-fired reciprocating engine based power plants were identified in the LTGEP 2018-2037 to be installed and commissioned by 2018 as short/medium term measures.170 MW out of this total capaci

115、ty has been added to the system through the extension of existing IPP contracts.Also,4 x 24 MW reciprocating engine power plants(at the grid substations of Habarana,Moneragala,Horana and Pallekelle)and a 100 MW reciprocating engine based power plant at Galle as identified in LTGEP 2018-2037 are cons

116、idered as committed medium-term projects in the preparation of this LTGEP.Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-5 The ongoing hydropower projects of 35 MW Broadlands,122 MW Uma Oya and 31 MW Moragolla are considered as committed power projects.The latest updated commissioning schedules of these hydro pro

117、jects were used in preparing this revised LTGEP.The proposed 15 MW Thalpitigala hydropower project was considered as a candidate plant for the year 2024,considering the cabinet approvals secured by the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resource Management.The proposed 24 MW Seethawaka Ganga hydropowe

118、r project to be developed by Ceylon Electricity Board was considered for the year 2023.More than 3.5 GW of Renewable Energy Development from Cleaner Indigenous Resources The 100MW wind farm project that is currently being developed by Ceylon Electricity Board at Mannar was considered as a committed

119、project.One of the main objectives of this large wind farm is to operationally test a novel semi-dispatchable operating strategy,by which more wind resources are expected to be integrated.As the transmission infrastructure has been already developed,the remaining wind potential in Mannar is required

120、 to be developed next in phases to meet ORE additions facilitated in this LTGEP to meet government policy targets.During the planning studies,the contribution from ORE was considered and different ORE technologies were modelled as appropriate.Maximum possible ORE integration has been facilitated in

121、this LTGEP to meet government policies,subjected to the operational constraints.A separate renewable integration study was carried out to identify the year by year renewable resource integration.The operational flexibility,transmission and system constraints were considered in this study.A strong re

122、newable energy development has been facilitated through this plan with a more than fivefold increase to the expected total renewable capacity for the next twenty years as compared to the past two decades.The cumulative ORE capacities envisaged at the end of 20 years are 1,323 MW from wind,2,210 MW f

123、rom solar,654 MW from mini-hydro and 144 MW from biomass.Higher ORE share is expected to maximize the utilization of indigenous natural resources.With decreasing global price trends due to improvements to solar PV technology and economies of scale during solar photovoltaic production,development of

124、solar PV has been gaining momentum in Sri Lanka.Solar PV additions take place at present under different schemes such as small-scale rooftop,small scale and large scale ground mounted systems.Incentives offered to high end domestic consumers to avoid consumption in higher blocks in the increasing bl

125、ock tariff domestic tariff structure had contributed to higher interest to install domestic solar rooftop systems.Installation of solar PV systems at rooftops helps the country to utilize the otherwise unproductive asset of rooftop area for a productive economic purpose.Government of Sri Lanka(GOSL)

126、launched an accelerated solar development campaign in 2016 to promote rooftop solar E-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 installations in the country.The program objective of reaching 200 MW of rooftop solar PV capacity by 2020 has been already achieved and a continuous growth in rooftop capacity is o

127、bserved.Procurement work for two directly grid connected ground mounted solar PV projects has been initiated to integrate distributed solar PV schemes at multiple grid locations in sizes of 60 x 1 MW and 90 x 1 MW.Potential large scale solar PV development as concentrated parks too are being studied

128、 at few earmarked potential sites such as Pooneryn and Moneragala,which are to be developed in phases.Additional techno/social/environmental feasibility studies are required and securing land is required prior to committing for development of transmission infrastructure to evacuate power from these

129、sites.Ideally,a priority order is preferred to be developed jointly by CEB and SLSEA to phase out the total ORE development during the 20-year period considering the favourability of resource and additional transmission infrastructure development costs.However,different grid integration strategies s

130、uch as the geographical distribution of Solar PV installations,curtailment during low demand hours and energy storage systems may be required when penetration of solar PV capacity increases,to reduce adverse implications of large solar PV due to variability,intermittency and resource uncertainty.Win

131、d Power is another large indigenous clean energy resource in Sri Lanka with a considerable potential for future development.Large scale wind power development in the country is presently focused in main resource areas such as Mannar,Pooneryn,Puttalam and North.Development of wind resources both as d

132、istributed and concentrated sites is to be carried out to meet ORE additions planned for the planning period.However,integration of wind resource need to be done giving due considerations to various technical constraints due to its intermittency and strong seasonality.The wind power capacities prese

133、nted in this report are expected to experience daily and weekly curtailments to overcome technical and operational restrictions,the amount of which is expected to increase gradually over the years with higher penetration.Therefore,features to remotely curtail wind generation(if so required)to meet t

134、echnical and operational requirements and methods to treat such curtailments need to be incorporated to future contracts,agreements and specifications.Encouraging the development of other newer forms of clean energy technologies,CEB has called for an Expression of Interest from prospective private d

135、evelopers for the development of geothermal energy conversion,compressed air-based power generation,ocean thermal energy conversion(OTEC),ocean energy conversion(Wave),biogas power generation and other storage applications such as grid-scale battery storages and hybrid systems.Facilitation for simil

136、ar applications will continue with the progress of commercialization of technologies.Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-7 Development of 3 GW of Natural Gas&2.1 GW of Coal Based Generation Infrastructure to Ensure Reliable and Economic Supply of Electricity Firm power sources that are available to be

137、dispatched on system requirement and presents an unvarying output while in operation is essential for the proper,reliable and healthy operation of a power system.However continuous delays in implementing the planned low-cost firm power projects have adversely affected the electricity grid as well as

138、 the national economy.Coal power has been identified as one of the most economical generating options to maintain economy/affordability of supply.According to a study conducted by New Energy and Industrial Technology Development(NEDO)-Japan,the Foul point area in Trincomalee was identified as the mo

139、st promising site to carry out future coal power development,considering attributes such as access to the deep sea.Extension of existing Lakvijaya power station is also considered as a near term coal power development alternative due to the possibility of faster implementation to urgently overcome t

140、he firm power capacity deficit at low cost.In all new planned coal power projects,necessary environmental impact mitigation measures such as strict emission control,indoor coal storages and enclosed coal handling facilities are incorporated along with higher conversion efficiency.Such mitigation mea

141、sures are incorporated over and above what is required to meet current environmental laws of the country but at an additional capital cost of about 700USD per kW,compared to a conventional coal power plant.Supercritical technology based coal plants have enhanced operating efficiency and reduced coal

142、 consumption,which in turn decrease overall emissions.Possibility of introducing such supercritical power plants with larger unit capacities would be evaluated considering other system constraints.Natural gas(NG),being a low carbon fuel alternative for thermal generation is the next planned fuel add

143、ition to the generation mix of the country and the first NG fired power plant was identified in the LTGEP 2015-2034.This LTGEP 2020-2039 has adhered to the government policy on fuel diversification in installed firm capacity and added liquefied natural gas(LNG)based generating capacity to meet gover

144、nment policy targets.The existing combined cycle plants that are operating on diesel/naphtha/furnace oil at present are expected to be converted to natural gas once supply of LNG/NG is established Natural gas power generation depends on the availability of natural gas fuel handling infrastructure to

145、 import,re-gasify and distribute natural gas.When sourcing LNG for Sri Lanka,a strategically decided mixture of long and medium term LNG contracts along with short term spot market purchases can be adopted to minimize the“take or pay”type contractual risks under fuel price and to significant weather

146、 related uncertainties.E-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Planning studies have considered current fuel price trends of LNG and capital cost recovery of LNG supply infrastructure.Both the floating storage regasification unit(FSRU)and land-based LNG regasification terminal are considered in the studi

147、es.Establishing LNG fuel handling and supply infrastructure is important to gain the maximum benefit of LNG based power generation which is much more economical and environmentally friendly than fuel oils.Any delays in establishing LNG infrastructure would cause the LNG power plants to operate on fu

148、el oil,resulting in additional cost on power generation as well as increased environmental emissions.Main load centres of Sri Lanka are in the Western region of the country.Therefore,locating low carbon natural gas based power plants are recommended to be developed in the Western region to facilitat

149、e easy distribution of Natural Gas via pipelines,lower transmission losses while complying with the environmental regulations of the Western region.Natural gas exploration work is in progress in the Mannar basin and there is a possibility of using such gas in the natural gas-fired power plants when

150、such fuel is commercially available at economically favourable prices.Key Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study The optimal expansion plan as contained in this report is derived using planning software OPTGEN,SDDP and WASP.The base case as contained in table E2 includes the yearly generatio

151、n capacity additions that provide the total lowest present value cost for the period,while meeting the reliability criteria and other constraints.Variations to demand growth and fuel prices are presented under sensitivity analysis.Each plant sequence presented under a given scenario is the least cos

152、t plant sequence for the given scenario.The draft LTGEP 2020-2039 was initially prepared by CEB based on the government policy guidelines,the planning code and the reliability criteria as published in the gazette notification 2019/28 by PUCSL.Upon submitting same to the Board of CEB for approval,the

153、 Board requested it to be revised to incorporate a higher reliability criterion than what is published by PUCSL by increasing the lower and upper limits of reserve capacity margin to 10%and 25%respectively from 2.5%to 20%as contained in the PUCSL gazette notification 2019/28.Accordingly,the base cas

154、e plan of LTGEP 2020-2039 was changed based on the higher reliability criteria.The Board granted its approval to this base case plan on 22nd April 2019,subject to PUCSL revising the gazette notification to include the enhanced reliability limits proposed by the Board.The Board approved LTGEP 2020-20

155、39 containing the new base case(termed original base case hereafter)was submitted to PUCSL approval on 24th May 2019.Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-9 The original base case plan prepared based on above enhanced reserve margins and submitted to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka on 24th M

156、ay 2019 is given in Table 8.1 of this report.The capacity balance,energy balance and dispatch schedule pertaining to the original base case plan are given in Annex:8.2,Annex:8.3 and Annex:8.4 respectively.All scenario analysis carried out for the original base case plan such as introducing nuclear p

157、ower and HVDC interconnection to the power system are kept unchanged in this report as an additional reference.Though Cabinet approval also was received for the enhanced reliability criteria proposed by the Board,PUCSL had not revised the original gazette notification to include the new reliability

158、criteria.After several written clarifications and meetings between PUCSL and CEB,PUCSL finally requested CEB to revise and resubmit the original base case as contained in the draft LTGEP 2020-2039 submitted to PUCSL,to comply with the reliability criteria stipulated in PUCSL gazette 2019/28.The revi

159、sed base case plan of the LTGEP 2020-2039 prepared after adopting the gazetted reliability criteria of PUCSL of 2.5%(minimum)and 20%(maximum)reserve margin is presented as an addendum in this draft LTGEP 2020-2039 report and is termed revised base case plan.This draft LTGEP 2020-2039 had accommodate

160、d other observations of the commission such as using economic costs,meeting renewable energy policy target for 2030 and using realistic implementation schedules of the power projects based on the updated project information.The revised base case plan is given in the Table E.2 and Table Ad.1 of Annex

161、 15 of the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2020-2039 report.The capacity balance,energy balance and dispatch schedule of the revised base case plan are given in Tables Ad 6,Ad 7 and Ad 8 of Annex 15 respectively.It is to be noted that all analysis as contained in this LTGEP 2020-2039 report is s

162、ame as the original submission made to PUCSL on 24th May 2019,except the following sections that were changed subsequently with the addendum.Executive summary Base case plan Section on externalities Contingency analysis E-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Table E.1-Base Load Forecast:2020-2044 Year

163、Demand Net Loss*Net Generation Peak Demand(GWh)Growth Rate(%)(%)(GWh)Growth Rate(%)(MW)2020 16914 7.4%8.78 18542 7.2%3050 2021 18194 7.6%8.62 19910 7.4%3254 2022 19187 5.5%8.46 20959 5.3%3403 2023 20233 5.5%8.30 22065 5.3%3561 2024 21337 5.5%8.15 23230 5.3%3728 2025 22501 5.5%8.00 24458 5.3%3903 202

164、6 23667 5.2%7.90 25696 5.1%4079 2027*24819 4.9%7.80 26918 4.8%4241 2028 26025 4.9%7.70 28195 4.7%4444 2029 27279 4.8%7.60 29522 4.7%4655 2030 28573 4.7%7.50 30890 4.6%4872 2031 29917 4.7%7.45 32325 4.6%5101 2032 31279 4.6%7.40 33778 4.5%5332 2033 32675 4.5%7.35 35267 4.4%5569 2034 34119 4.4%7.30 368

165、06 4.4%5814 2035 35607 4.4%7.25 38390 4.3%6067 2036 37126 4.3%7.25 40028 4.3%6328 2037 38692 4.2%7.25 41716 4.2%6597 2038 40298 4.2%7.25 43448 4.2%6873 2039 41937 4.1%7.25 45215 4.1%7155 2040 43623 4.0%7.25 47033 4.0%7445 2041 45368 4.0%7.25 48914 4.0%7745 2042 47170 4.0%7.25 50857 4.0%8054 2043 490

166、37 4.0%7.25 52870 4.0%8376 2044 50978 4.0%7.25 54963 4.0%8709 5 Year Average Growth 6.0%5.8%5.1%10 Year Average Growth 5.5%5.3%4.8%20 Year Average Growth 4.9%4.8%4.6%25 Year Average Growth 4.7%4.6%4.5%*Net losses include losses at the Transmission&Distribution levels and any non-technical losses,Gen

167、eration(Including auxiliary consumption)losses are excluded.This forecast will vary depend on the hydro thermal generation mix of the future.*It is expected that day peak would surpass the night peak from this year onwards Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-11 Table E.2 Revised Base Case 2020-2039 YEA

168、R RENEWABLE ADDITIONS THERMAL ADDITIONS THERMAL RETIREMENTS LOLP3%2020 Solar 100 MW(including 35 MW committed)Wind 20 MW (2x10 MW Chunnakam Wind)Mini Hydro 15 MW*Biomass 5 MW*200 MW Short Term Basis Supplementary Power Plants 100 MW Short Term Basis Supplementary Power Plants 145 MW Reciprocating En

169、gine Power Plants 6 x 5 MW Northern Power 1.427 2021 Solar 110 MW (including 70 MW+2x10MW committed)100 MW Mannar Wind Park Mini Hydro 20 MW*Biomass 5 MW*Uma Oya HPP 122 MW Broadlands HPP 35 MW 395 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants 130 MW Gas Turbine 2 100 MW ACE Embilipitiya 20 MW ACE Matara 51

170、MW Asia Power 200 MW Short Term Basis Supplementary Power Plants 100 MW Short Term Basis Supplementary Power Plants 1.362 2022 Solar 60 MW Wind 150 MW(including 60 MW committed)Mini Hydro 20 MW*Biomass 5 MW*4 x 24 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants 100 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants Galle 20

171、0 MW Open Cycle Operation of 1 x 300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region2 290 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants 1.424 2023 Solar 60 MW Wind 110 MW Mini Hydro 20 MW*Biomass 5 MW*Moragolla HPP 31 MW Seethawaka HPP 24 MW 100 MW Steam Turbine Operation of 1 x 300 MW Natural

172、 Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region2(Combined Cycle Operation)(Identified in LTGEP 2015-2034 and LTGEP 2018-2037 to be commissioned by 2019)300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region2(Identified in LTGEP 2018-2037 to be commissioned by 2021)300 MW Lakvijaya C

173、oal Power Plant Extension 163 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant(KPS2)4 190 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants 4x17 MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbines 115 MW Gas Turbine 1 4x9 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel Ext.1 163 MW Sojitz Kelanitissa Combined Cycle Plant 4 0.449 2024 Solar 60 MW Wind 90 MW Mini Hydro 20 MW*Bioma

174、ss 5 MW*Thalpitigala HPP 15 MW 300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 4x17 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel1 0.345 2025 Solar 80 MW Wind 40 MW Mini Hydro 20 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 4x15.6 MW CEB Barge Power Plant1 0.331 2026 Solar 90 MW Wind 35 MW Mini

175、Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*2 x 300 MW New Coal fired Power Plant (Foul Point Phase I)60 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants 4x9 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel Ext.1 0.077 2027 Solar 90 MW Wind 50 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*-0.210 2028 Solar 100 MW Wind 40 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*Pumped Storage

176、 HPP 200 MW -0.152 E-12 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 YEAR RENEWABLE ADDITIONS THERMAL ADDITIONS THERMAL RETIREMENTS LOLP3%2029 Solar 100 MW Wind 40 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*Pumped Storage HPP 200 MW -0.121 2030 Solar 100 MW Wind 20 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*Pumped Storage HPP 200 MW

177、 300 MW New Coal fired Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)-0.019 2031 Solar 100 MW Wind 60 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*-0.155 2032 Solar 110 MW Wind 50 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 196 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Pla

178、nts 4 x 24 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants 100 MW Reciprocating Engine Power Plants Galle 0.128 2033 Solar 110 MW Wind 35 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region 300 MW New Coal Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)1

179、65 MW Combined Cycle Plant(KPS)163 MW Combined Cycle Plant(KPS-2)3 x 8.93 MW Uthuru Janani Power Plant 0.182 2034 Solar 120 MW Wind 70 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW New Coal Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)-0.105 2035 Solar 120 MW Wind 45 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass

180、 5 MW*300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant Western Region 300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 300MW West Coast Combined Cycle Power Plant 0.060 2036 Solar 110 MW Wind 50 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power Plant-0.055 2037 Sol

181、ar 110 MW Wind 50 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*-0.241 2038 Solar 110 MW Wind 70 MW Mini Hydro 10 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW New Coal Power Plant (Change to Super critical will be evaluated)-0.193 2039 Solar 110 MW Wind 70 MW Mini Hydro 5 MW*Biomass 5 MW*300 MW Natural Gas fired Combined Cycle Power

182、Plant-0.178 Total PV Cost up to year 2039,USD 16,555 mil USD(LKR 2,981.45 billion)GENERAL NOTES:1.Retirement of these plants would be evaluated based on the plant conditions.2.The plant has dual fuel capability and would be operated with Natural Gas.3.Refer Contingency Analysis for additional capaci

183、ty requirements in occurrence of risk events.4.PPA of Sojitz Kelanitissa is scheduled to be expired in 2023,and will be operated as a CEB Natural Gas fired power plant from 2023 to 2033 with the conversion.West Coast and Kelanithissa Combined Cycle plant are converted to Natural Gas in 2023 with the

184、 development of LNG based infrastructure.*Mini-hydro and Biomass annual capacity additions are not restricted to the planned capacities.Committed plants are shown in Italics.All plant capacities are given in gross values.Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-13 Battery storage is proposed to be added to

185、the system in phase development.(Total 50 MW by 2025 and 100 MW by 2030).Exact capacities and entry years will be evaluated during the detailed design stage of battery storage integration.PV cost includes the cost of projected ORE development,USD 2274.04 million based on economic cost.Cost of batter

186、y storage is not included in the PV cost.Thalpitigala and Gin Ganga multipurpose hydropower plants are proposed and developed by Ministry of Irrigation.As a committed power plant,Thalpitigala is scheduled to begin commercial operation by 2024 while feasibility studies are still being carried out for

187、 Gin Ganga project.Seethawaka HPP is expected in 2023 while PSPP units are expected in 2028,2029 and 2030 respectively.Refer addendum for the required transmission system reinforcements for the implementation of major power plants in the years up to 2026.A generation capacity shortage is observed in

188、 the short term up to the year 2023 when compared to forecasted demand due to non-implementation of projects identified in previous plans,mainly delays in the implementation of the two 300 MW natural gas-fired combined cycle projects which should have been commissioned in 2019 and 2021 as per previo

189、us plans.Therefore,it is necessary to ensure adequate short term capacity additions during the initial years.The demand forecast as contained in this report(table 3.3)is the results of detailed forecasting studies carried out in 2018,the usual commencement year of the work related to LTGEP 2020-2039

190、.As the consensus with PUCSL to revise the draft plan was reached in January 2020,demand forecasts are not revised performing a complete planning cycle to include the latest demand data,as that would further delay the submission and approval process of the plan.However,as actual sales figures are no

191、w available for years 2018 and 2019,those demand figures could be appropriately used in short term studies to revise the short-term capacity requirement identified in this report to determine the actual minimum capacity requirement for initial years.Once the planned low cost long term major plants a

192、re commissioned during 2023 2025,the majority of short term capacity additions are to be retired as shown in the revised base case.The capacity share from coal and natural gas as contained in this report are maintained to comply with the fuel diversity requirement of firm capacity as stipulated in t

193、he government policy guidelines.Accordingly,by 2025 the firm capacity share of coal power plants is to be 22%and natural gas power plants to be 38%.By 2030,this share will be 30%from coal and 30%from natural gas,complying exactly with the policy targets.Implementation of the Plan and Future Work Thi

194、s plan only stipulates the most economical capacity additions for the future.To implement such plans,the assistance of all stakeholders is required.The National Energy Policy and Strategies as published in the Gazette Extraordinary 2135/61 dated 09th August 2019 states under section 3.9;Considering

195、limitation to land with specific attributes that are required to develop certain technologies and considering the extensive financial losses incurred in the past owing to E-14 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 shifting of sites to locate power plants,strategic locations to establish future energy infra

196、structure will be earmarked and secured in advance to ensure timely implementation of such facilities and to minimise adverse social impacts.It is hence of utmost importance to identify and secure land required to locate power capacities as identified in this plan.It is important to recognise the co

197、ntinuous development of coal as a baseload power generating option,not only to maintain the fuel diversity but also due to unparallel economic advantages that it offers.It was noted during the planning studies that other prominent economies in the region such as India,Indonesia,Vietnam and Banglades

198、h are continuing the development of coal power plants owing to the economic advantages they offer.Timely implementation of coal plants is considered essential to keep costs of electricity down and thereby making costs of production of Sri Lankan goods low to compete with regional countries.In order

199、to facilitate the harnessing of indigenous resources and to maintain renewable energy portfolio in the generation mix,a total of 3,495 MW of ORE capacity has been identified to be developed during the planning horizon.Once developed,energy coming from such ORE based power plants are expected to repl

200、ace the energy that otherwise would have to be generated from thermal power plants.Though ORE based plants,other than biomass and solid waste,do not contribute to installed firm capacity,the energy contribution from such plants reduces the need to install firm capacity in the long run.Thus,unless su

201、ch ORE capacities identified are not developed,share of thermal firm capacity additions need to be increased in future plans.Responsibility of identifying and preparing renewable resource inventories and maps and managing such renewable energy resources lies with Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authori

202、ty.CEB,through this plan,has facilitated the absorption of ORE based resources.However,for the actual and economical exploitation of such ORE resources,CEB requires the assistance of other agencies.Introduction of pumped storage power plants as a grid scale energy storage solution is mandatory to en

203、hance the planned ORE absorption and to give operational flexibility.The present high cost of battery energy storage technologies is expected to decline in future with the technology developments,thus making battery energy storage a possible economically viable solution.To facilitate such developmen

204、t and to gain knowledge of such technology,battery storage is facilitated in this report for phased development.It is important to note that actual energy dispatch in a given future year would depend on the fuel prices prevailing in that year and weather conditions.Based on the fuel price forecasts

205、considered for planning purposes and at average weather conditions coal generation is expected to have a share of 28%by 2025 and 41%by 2030.The Energy contribution from natural gas in 2025 and Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-15 2030 would be 29%and 22%respectively.Contribution from renewable energy

206、 is going to be over 37%by 2025 and 35%by 2030.Under favourable weather conditions,the latter is expected to go further up.The generating capacity mix identified in this plan is operationally capable of raising the share of generation from cleaner sources,(Natural Gas and renewable energy)up to 70%o

207、f total generation.The total present value of implementing the revised Base Case Plan 2020-2039 in the next 20 years is approximately USD 16,555 million with discount rate of 10%.E-16 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Immediate Actions to be taken:(i)Reciprocating engine power plants for short term req

208、uirement.The anticipated capacity shortage for the period till 2023 is to be met through the development of reciprocating engine power plants.Development of these power plants expeditiously is essential to increase low reserve capacity margins in the initial years and avoid capacity shortage as a re

209、sult.170 MW of extended IPP plants and 300 MW of short-term capacity in operation in 2020 is expected to be retired in 2021.As a result,395 MW of capacity is seen as required for 2021.This is in addition to another 145 MW required for 2020.If further extension of IPP contracts is expected to be cons

210、idered along with other competitive capacity procurements,initiation of such capacity additions is recommended to be commenced at earliest upon obtaining approval to this plan.(ii)Reciprocating engine power plants on medium-term requirement.Out of 320 MW reciprocating engine capacity identified in L

211、TGEP 2018-2037,following power projects had been identified as medium-term capacity developments.It is essential to fast track the development of these projects and complete the projects by 2022.a)4x24 MW Reciprocating engines plants at four grid locations.b)100 MW Reciprocating engine based power p

212、lant in Galle (iii)Commissioning of 35 MW Broadlands,122MW Uma Oya,and 31 MW Moragolla by the year 2021,2021 and 2023 respectively.(iv)Commissioning of 100 MW wind farm at Mannar by the year 2021.The semi dispatchable Mannar wind farm that is expected to generate approximately 337GWh annually need t

213、o be expedited.As the transmission infrastructure is already available up to Mannar,additional wind resource at Mannar island needs to be developed next.Generation Expansion Plan 2019 E-17(v)Commissioning of Other renewable energy projects Approximate capacity addition of 1,200 MW of Wind and 2,000

214、MW of solar is facilitated through this plan for the 20 year planning horizon.It is the responsibility of all agencies including Sustainable Energy Authority to carry out necessary resource availability studies and to come out with suitable locations where such capacities could be developed.(vi)130

215、MW of gas turbines by the year 2021 The power plant is expected to add much needed peaking capacity and reduce the dependency on hydropower.(vii)Natural gas fired combined cycle power plants and associated LNG import infrastructure.Two,300 MW dual fuel combined cycle power plants must be commissione

216、d in western region by 2023.The associated LNG supply infrastructure having sufficient capacity to be developed on a fast track basis to cater to the two new power plants and the existing combined cycles that are to be converted to natural gas.Two additional 300 MW natural gas fired combined cycle p

217、ower plants are identified as required for 2024 and 2025.The land acquisition process and all other necessary approvals are required to be obtained immediately to commence the project procurement activities for these two power plants.Development of associated transmission facilities also required to

218、 be commenced in parallel to the power plant implementation schedule.Early approval to this LTGEP is essential to commence development work on those two plants.(viii)Extension of Lakvijaya Power Plant.The 4th Unit of Lakvijaya coal power plant is planned to be commissioned by 2023.Prompt action is r

219、equired from all stakeholder authorities to enable timely implementation of the project on the targeted date.E-18 Generation Expansion Plan-2019(ix)High efficient coal power plant development Two,300 MW High Efficient Coal Power Plants are planned to be commissioned in 2026 at Foul Point in Trincoma

220、lee.The land acquisition process and all other necessary approvals are required to be obtained immediately to commence the project procurement activities.(x)Pumped storage power plant development Implementation of 3 x 200MW pumped storage power plant has been identified for 2028,2029 and 2030 respec

221、tively.Pumped storage plants with variable speed pumping mechanisms is not only useful as an energy storage method,but also to facilitates absorption of maximum ORE and reduces possible ORE generation curtailments.In addition,this will operate as a peaking power plant by minimizing the high cost the

222、rmal generation.It is also identified that such pumped storage hydro plants are required in the future to provide operational flexibility,including fast ramping up/down capability and frequency regulation.In order to account for the occurrence of risk events,a separate contingency analysis has been

223、carried out as contained under Contingency Analysis for the first five year period.Low hydrology than what is planned,increase in demand beyond forecast,delays in implementation of power plants and outage of a major power plant are considered as risk events in the contingency analysis.Generation Exp

224、ansion Plan-2019 Page 1-1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background The Electricity sector in Sri Lanka is governed by the Sri Lanka Electricity Act,No.20 of 2009 amended by Act No.31 of 2013 1.Ceylon Electricity Board(CEB),established by CEB Act No.17 of 1969(as amended),is under legal obligation to de

225、velop and maintain an efficient,coordinated and economical system of Electricity supply in accordance with Licenses issued.CEB is responsible for most of the generation and distribution licenses while being sole licensee for transmission.CEB has been issued a generation license,a transmission licens

226、e and four distribution licenses.Lanka Electricity Company(LECO),a subsidiary of CEB is the other distribution licensee and there are several Independent Power Producers,whose production is also purchased by CEB.The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka(PUCSL)is the regulator of the sector and wa

227、s established by the PUCSL Act No.35 of 2002 and empowered by the Electricity Act.The Sri Lankan power system has a total installed capacity of approximately 4046 MW by end of year 2018 with a total dispatchable capacity of 3436 MW.The maximum demand recorded in 2018 was 2616 MW and total net genera

228、tion was 1537GWh.Generation expansion planning is a part of the process of achieving an efficient and economical electricity supply system to the country.In order to meet the increasing demand for electrical energy,while considering the retirements of existing the thermal plants,new generating stati

229、ons need to be installed as and when necessary.The planning studies presented in this report are based on the Annual Report 2017 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2 and electricity sector data up to 2018.The information presented has been updated to December 2018 unless otherwise stated.The generating sy

230、stem has to be planned taking into consideration the electricity demand growth,generation technologies,environmental and climate change considerations,fuel diversification mix,prevailing government policies and financial requirements.Evaluation of each type of candidate generating plant technologies

231、,from both renewable and thermal is screened,to select the optimum plant mix schedule in the best interest of the country.1.2 The Economy In the last six years(2013-2018),the real GDP growth in the Sri Lanka economy has varied from 5%to 3.2%in 2018.Details of some demographic and economic indicators

232、 are given in Table 1.1.Page 1-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Table 1.1-Demographic and Economic Indicators of Sri Lanka Units 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mid-Year Population Millions 20.58 20.77 20.97 21.20 21.44 21.67 Population Growth Rate%0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 GDP Real Growth Rate%3.4 5 5

233、4.5 3.4 3.2 GDP/Capita(Market prices)US$3609 3819 3842 3886 4104 4102 Exchange Rate(Avg.)LKR/US$129.11 130.56 135.94 145.60 152.46 162.54 GDP Constant 2010 Prices Mill LKR 7,846,202 8,235,429 8,647,833 9,034,290 9,344,839 9,644,728 Source:Annual Report 2018,Central Bank of Sri Lanka 1.2.1 Electricit

234、y and Economy Electricity demand growth rate in the past has most of the times revealed a direct correlation with the growth rate of the countrys economy.Figure 1.1 shows growth rates of electricity demand and GDP from 1997 to 2018.Figure 1.1-Growth Rates of GDP and Electricity Sales 1.2.2 Economic

235、Projections The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has forecasted the latest GDP growth rates in real terms for four consecutive years,which is published in Annual Report 2018 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2 and Annual Report 2017 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka 3 as depicted in Table 1.2.-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05

236、.010.015.020.092000200042005200620072008200920001620172018Electricity Demand Growth(%)Growth Rate(%)YearGDPElectricityGeneration Expansion Plan-2019 Page 1-3 Table 1.2-Forecast of GDP Growth Rate in Real Terms Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2017 Foreca

237、st 5.0 5.5 60 6.0 6.0 2018 Forecast 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 Source:Annual Reports 2017&2018,Central Bank of Sri Lanka 1.3 Energy Sector 1.3.1 Energy Supply Biomass or fuel wood,petroleum and hydro are the major primary energy supply sources,which cater the Sri Lankan energy demand.Petroleum turns out to

238、 be the major source of commercial energy,which covers more than 40 percent of the energy demand.Biomass or fuel wood,which is mainly a non-commercial fuel,at present also provides approximately 40 percent of the countrys total energy requirement.Although electricity and petroleum products are the m

239、ajor forms of commercial energy,an increasing amount of biomass is also commercially grown and traded.Hydropower which covers 6%of the total primary energy supply is the main indigenous source of primary commercial energy in Sri Lanka.Estimated potential of hydro resource is about 2000MW,of which si

240、gnificant resource has already been harnessed.Further exploitation of hydro resources is becoming increasingly difficult owing to social and/or environmental impacts associated with large-scale development.Apart from these,there is a considerable potential for wind and solar power development.The fi

241、rst commercial wind power plants were established in 2010 and the total capacity of wind power plants by end of 2018 is 128MW.100MW wind farm at Mannar Island is at the implementation stage.The steps have been initiated to harness the economical wind and solar potential in Sri Lanka in an optimal ma

242、nner.The first commercial solar power plants were commissioned in year 2016 and the total capacity of commercial solar power plants by end of 2018 was 51MW and nearly 170MW of solar roof tops were also connected by end of 2018.Scattered developments of small scale solar power plants have been alread

243、y initiated and feasibility studies were initiated to develop solar power plants in park concept.By end of 2018,37 small scale solar PV parks of 1MW has been awarded to private investors for development and another 90 small scale solar PV parks of 1MW has been under evaluation to award during 2019.A

244、s at present,the total fossil fuel requirement of the country is imported either as crude oil or as refined products and used for transport,power generation,industry and other applications.Apart from this,initiatives have been launched in towards oil exploration with the prime intention of harnessin

245、g potential petroleum resources in the Mannar Basin.Exploration license has been awarded to explore for oil and natural gas in the Mannar Basin off the north-west coast and drilling of the test wells has been carried out.At present,natural gas has been discovered in Mannar basin(off shore from Kalpi

246、tiya Pennisula)with a potential of 70 mscfd.Discoverable gas amount of this reserve is estimated approximately 300 bcf.This may even extend beyond the potential of 2TCF with daily extraction rates of 100 mscfd but further exploration should be carried out in order to verify these figures.In 2017 the

247、 primary energy supply consisted of Biomass(4607 ktoe),Petroleum(5462 ktoe),Coal(1358 ktoe),Hydro(738 ktoe)and other renewable sources(387 ktoe).The share of these in the gross primary Page 1-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 energy supply from 2012 to 2017 is shown in Figure 1.2.Hydro electricity is

248、 adjusted to reflect the energy input required in a thermal plant to produce the equivalent amount of electricity.Figure 1.2-Share of Gross Primary Energy Supply by Source 1.3.2 Energy Demand Figure 1.3-Gross Energy Consumption by Sectors including Non-Commercial Sources Sectorial energy consumption

249、 trend from 2012 to 2017 is shown in Figure 1.3.According to the above chart,household and commercial sector appears to be the largest sector in terms of energy consumption when all the traditional sources of energy are taken into account.Further,it shows a decreasing trend while industry and Transp

250、ort sector shows an increasing trend.46%37%39%38.9%44.5%43.5%43%43%42%39%36%37%6%13%8%9%7%6%4%4%8%10%10%11%2%3%3%3%2%3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2001520162017Share%YearPetroleumBiomassHydroCoalOther Renewable Energy25%25%26%31%24%24%29%29%29%29%36%36%47%46%45%41%40%40%0%20%40%60%80%100%2012201320

251、017Share%YearIndustryTransportHousehold,commercial and othersSource:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Source:Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Page 1-5 The consumption for 2017 is made up of biomass(4564 ktoe),petroleum(4364 ktoe),coal(44.2 ktoe)an

252、d electricity(1150 ktoe).Due to poor conversion efficiency of biomass,the composition of the net(or useful)energy consumption in the domestic sector could be different from the above.On the other hand,being the cheapest and most easily accessible source of energy,fuel wood still dominates the domest

253、ic sector consumption.Even though it is traded in urban and suburban areas fuel wood is still classified as a non-commercial form of energy.1.3.3 Emissions from Energy Sector The Total CO2 Emission levels of Sri Lanka are 20.9 Million tons,which is approximately only 0.06%of the total CO2 emissions

254、generated in the World.The absolute emission levels as well as the per capita emission levels are much below compared to many other countries in the world as tabulated in Table 1.3.Table 1.3-Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Country kg CO2/2010 US$of GDP kg CO2/2010 US$of GDP Adjusted

255、 to PPP Tons of CO2 per Capita Total CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Sri Lanka 0.26 0.09 0.99 20.9 Pakistan 0.67 0.17 0.79 153.4 India 0.84 0.269 1.57 2076.8 Indonesia 0.44 0.17 1.74 454.9 Malaysia 0.63 0.28 6.93 216.2 Thailand 0.60 0.23 3.55 244.6 China 0.93 0.46 6.57 9101.5 Japan 0.19 0.24 9.04 1147.1

256、France 0.10 0.12 4.38 292.9 Denmark 0.10 0.13 5.84 33.5 Germany 0.19 0.21 8.88 731.6 Switzerland 0.06 0.08 4.53 37.9 United Kingdom 0.14 0.15 5.65 371.1 USA 0.2.9 0.29 14.95 4833.1 Canada 0.30 0.35 14.91 540.8 Australia 0.26 0.36 16.0 392.4 Qatar 0.46 0.27 30.77 79.1 Brazil 0.19 0.15 2.01 416.7 Worl

257、d 0.42 0.30 4.35 32314.2 Even though electricity sector is the major contributor for emissions in the world,the transport sector contributes for majority of the emissions in Sri Lanka.The contribution to emissions from electricity sector of recent four years is tabulated in Table 1.4 and sector wise

258、 comparison of CO2 emissions in 2016 is shown in Figure 1.4.Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2018 Edition)04-2016 Data Page 1-6 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 42%5%19%24%10%41%8%45%6%Table 1.4-CO2 Emissions in the Recent Past Year Sri Lanka CO2 Emissions(Million tons)Electricity Sector

259、CO2 Emissions (Million tons)2013 13.74 4.04 2014 16.74 6.79 2015 19.5 6.8 2016 20.9 8.7 Figure 1.4-CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2016 1.4 Electricity Sector 1.4.1 Ease of Doing Business The“Ease of Doing Business”index ranks countries based on capability of starting businesses with an overall D

260、istance to Frontier(DTF)score.The score is determined by several factors which includes the subsection of“Getting Electricity”.The Getting Electricity index is based on the procedures,time and cost required for a business to obtain a permanent electricity connection for a newly constructed warehouse

261、,while assessing efficiency of connection process,Reliability of supply and transparency of tariff index measures,reliability of power supply and the price of electricity.The Doing the business 2019 05 report published by World Bank Group,classified Sri Lanka at an overall Distance to Frontier(DTF)s

262、core of 61.22 creating a Ease of Doing Business rank of 100th out of(a)World (a)Sri Lanka Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2018 Edition)04-2016 Data Source:IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(2018 Edition)04-2016 Data Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Page 1-7 190 countries,with the sub

263、section of Getting Electricity DTF score of 74.37 which ranked 84th out of all 190 countries.1.4.2 Access to Electricity By the end of December,2018,approximately 99%of the total population had access to electricity from the national electricity grid.Figure 1.5 shows the percentage level of electrif

264、ication district wise as at end of June 2016.Figure 1.5-Level of Electrification Page 1-8 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 1.4.3 Electricity Consumption Figure 1.6-Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2005-2018)The amount of energy consumed by each sector(i.e.each tariff category)from 2005 to 2018 is

265、shown in Figure 1.6 while Figure 1.7 depicts sectorial electricity consumption share in 2018.These Figures reveal that the industrial and commercial(general purpose,hotel,government)sectors consumption together is more than the consumption in the domestic sector.This is a pleasing situation for an e

266、conomy with ambitious GDP growth projections.Figure 1.7-Sectorial Consumption of Electricity(2018)The average per capita electricity consumption in 2017 and 2018 were 626kWh per person and 650 kWh per person respectively.Generally,it has been rising steadily;however,in the period 2007 2009 with the

267、slowing down of the electricity growth,the per capita consumption has stagnated.A similar trend is observed during 2012 to 2013.Figure 1.8 illustrates the trend of per capita electricity consumption of Sri Lanka from 2004 to 2018.It is compared to other Asian countries per capita electricity consump

268、tion variation from 2004 to 2013 as depicted in Figure 1.9.285930563264024040555559596367727684899426902859289429372352734020260264033383130130020

269、0040006000800040000620072008200920001620172018GWhYearDomesticReligiousIndustrialCommercialStreet LightingDomestic,37.0%Religious,1%Industrial,32%Commercial,29%Street Lighting,1%Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Page 1-9 00500600700800900

270、000200420052006200720082009200016kWh/personYearVietnamIndiaPakistanSri LankaBangladesh 1.4.4 Capacity and Demand Sri Lanka electricity requirement was growing at an average annual rate of around 5%-6%during the past 20 years,and this trend is expected to c

271、ontinue in the foreseeable future.The total installed capacity peak demand over the last twenty years are given in the Table 1.5 and graphically shown in Figure 1.10.The development of other renewables through the past years is illustrated in Figure 1.11 Table 1.5-Installed Capacity and Peak Demand

272、Year Installed Capacity Capacity Growth Peak Demand Peak Demand Growth MW(%)MW(%)1998 1636 3%1137 10%1999 1682 3%1291 14%2000 1764 5%1404 9%2001 1874 6%1445 3%2002 1893 1%1422-2%2003 2180 15%1516 7%2004 2280 5%1563 3%2005 2411 6%1748 12%2006 2434 1%1893 8%2007 2444 0.4%1842-2.7%2008 2645 8%1922 4%20

273、09 2684 1%1868-3%2010 2818 5%1955 5%2011 3141 10%2163 10%2012 3312 5%2146-1%00500600700kWh/PersonYearFigure 1.8 Sri Lanka Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2004-2018)Figure 1.9 Asian Countries Per Capita Electricity Consumption(2004-2016)25030035040045050055060065070020042005200620072008

274、200920001620172018kWh/PersonYearPage 1-10 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Year Installed Capacity Capacity Growth Peak Demand Peak Demand Growth MW(%)MW(%)2013 3355 1%2164 1%2014 3932 17%2152-1%2015 3847-2%2283 6%2016 4018 4%2453 7%2017 4060 1%2523 3%2018 4046-0.3 2616 4%Last 5

275、year avg.growth 0.73%5.01%Last 10 year avg.growth 4.67%3.81%Last 20 year avg.growth 4.73%3.79%Figure 1.10 Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Figure 1.11 Other Renewable Energy Capacity Development 0400800024002800320036004000440002000420052006200720082009201020

276、00172018Inst.Capacity&Peak Demand(MW)YearNon Dispatachble Capacity MWDispatachble Capacity MWPeak Demand39738867442455502003004005006007002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Capacity(MW)YearGeneration E

277、xpansion Plan-2019 Page 1-11 1.4.5 Generation In early stages the electricity demand of the country was mainly supplied by hydro generation and the contribution from thermal generation was minimal.With the time,thermal generation has become prominent.At present,thermal generation share is much highe

278、r than that of hydro.Further the other renewable energy generation from mini hydro,wind,solar,dendro etc is also increasing.Electricity Generation during the last twenty-five years is summarized in Table 1.6 and graphically shown in Figure 1.12.Table 1.6-Electricity Generation 1994-2018 Year Hydro G

279、eneration Other Renewable Thermal Generation Self-Generation Total GWh%GWh%GWh%GWh%GWh 1994 4073 93.4 0 0.0 265 6.1 22 0.5 4360 1995 4496 94.2 0 0.0 260 5.5 17 0.4 4774 1996 3233 72.0 3 0.1 1102 24.5 152 3.4 4490 1997 3426 67.1 4 0.1 1441 28.2 235 4.6 5107 1998 3892 69.1 6 0.1 1620 28.8 114 2.0 5632

280、 1999 4135 67.5 21 0.3 1871 30.6 97 1.6 6125 2000 3138 46.3 46 0.7 3437 50.7 158 2.3 6780 2001 3030 46.2 68 1.0 3361 51.2 105 1.6 6564 2002 2575 37.4 107 1.6 4074 59.1 136 2.0 6892 2003 3175 42.0 124 1.6 4263 56.4 0 0.0 7562 2004 2739 33.8 208 2.6 5051 62.3 115 1.4 8113 2005 3158 36.3 282 3.2 5269 6

281、0.5 0 0.0 8709 2006 4272 45.9 349 3.7 4694 50.4 0 0.0 9314 2007 3585 36.8 347 3.6 5800 59.6 0 0.0 9733 2008 3683 37.5 438 4.5 5697 58.0 0 0.0 9819 2009 3338 34.0 552 5.6 5914 60.3 0 0.0 9803 2010 4969 46.7 731 6.9 4948 46.5 0 0.0 10649 2011 3999 35.2 725 6.4 6629 58.4 2.9 0.0 11356 2012 2710 23.1 73

282、6 6.3 8280 70.6 1.4 0.0 11727 2013 5990 50.3 1179 9.9 4729 39.7 0 0.0 11898 2014 3632 29.5 1217 9.9 7466 60.6 0 0.0 12316 2015 4904 37.5 1467 11.2 6718 51.3 0 0.0 13090 2016 3481 24.6 1160 8.2 9507 67.2 0 0.0 14148 2017 3059 20.8 1464 10.0 10148 69.2 0 0.0 14671 2018 5149 33.8 1715 11.2 8390 55.0 0

283、0.0 15255 Last 5 year av.Growth 9.12%8.94%2.96%5.50%Last 10 year av.Growth 4.94%13.42%3.96%5.04%The Total Generation and ORE Generation excludes the contribution from Rooftop Solar Page 1-12 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Figure 1.12-Generation Share in the Recent Past Sri Lankan Power System has op

284、erated maintaining 30%-60%share of renewable energy throughout the recent years.This trend will be continued in the future also with the optimum amount of renewable energy integration to the system.Total renewable energy share over the past ten years are shown in Figure 1.13.Figure 1.13 Renewable Sh

285、are in the Recent Past 020004000600080004000998042005200620072008200920001620172018Generation(GWh)YearHydro GenerationOil GenerationCoal GenerationSelf GenerationOther Renewable0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%00400050006000700080002

286、0072008200920001620172018PercentageEnergy(Gwh)YearMajor HydroOther RETotal RE PercentageGeneration Expansion Plan-2019 Page 1-13 In Comparison World Electricity Generation has been mainly depended on Thermal Generation throughout the past two decades.Coal Power Generation is th

287、e major source contributing approximately 40%of the World Electricity Generation from 1996 to 2016.Gas power Generation has increased from 15%to 23%,while Oil Power Generation has decreased from 9%to 3%during the past two decades.The total Renewable Generation including Large Hydro power has increas

288、ed from 20%-23%during the time horizon while Nuclear Power Generation has decreased from 17%to 10%.World Electricity Generation during the last twenty years is summarized in Figure 1.14 and World Electricity Generation by source as a percentage is shown in Figure 1.15 Figure 1.14 World Electricity G

289、eneration(GWh)Figure 1.15 World Electricity Generation by Source as Percentage 05000000000002000000025000000300000001996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016GWhCoalOilGasNuclearHydroGeothermalBiofuelsWasteSolar PVSolar thermalW

290、indTide0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%702000420052006200720082009200016CoalOilGasNuclearHydroORESource:International Energy Agency Statistics Source:International Energy Agency Statistics Page 1-14 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 1.5 Implementa

291、tion of Planning cycle The performance evaluation of previous years indicates that the CEB overall cost at selling point has increased by 5.75%in 2018 compared to 2016.The Transmission and Distribution losses of CEB has improved from 9.63%in 2016 to 8.34%by 2018.The previous versions of LTGEP have i

292、dentified the commissioning of low cost major power plants in the system.The LTGEP 2013-2032,had identified the commissioning of 2x 250 MW Sampoor Coal Power Plant by 2018.The Sampoor Coal Power plant which went through the initial gestation stage,that is finalizing the feasibility studies,EIA,land

293、reservation,and initiating tender procedure,was cancelled in 2015.In LTGEP 2015-2034,a 300 MW Natural Gas Combined Cycle plant was introduced to be commissioned in 2019.After receiving the commission approval for LTGEP 2015-2034 in September 2016,the tender process was initiated by CEB in November 2

294、016.However,the Power Plant has not been awarded and timely implementation of the power plant in 2019 is not achievable.Due to the non-implementation of low cost power plant as planned in to the system high cost supplementary power needed to be procured to overcome shortages as stop gap measures.Sup

295、plementary Power sources of 56MW had provided 37.2 GWh for a period of 7 months in 2018.The PPA of retired IPP,ACE Power Embilipitya was extended and it supplied 362.84 GWh energy in 2018.1.6 Planning Process CEB is under a statutory duty to develop and maintain an efficient,co-coordinated and econo

296、mical system of electricity supply for the whole of Sri Lanka.In order to fulfill the above duty,CEB revises the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan(LTGEP)once in two years complying with Section 43 of Sri Lanka Electricity Act,No 31 of 2013.Intensive studies are conducted by the Transmission and Ge

297、neration Planning Branch of the CEB in order to prepare this plan.A coordinating committee representing the relevant Branches of CEB meets during the study period to review the study inputs and the findings.Operating information on the existing generating plants is obtained from records maintained i

298、n the Generation Planning Branch and the individual power stations.Operational information and system limitations are obtained from the System Control and the Generation Division of CEB.The details of Independent Power producers are verified from latest power purchase agreements.Details and costs of

299、 candidate thermal and hydro plants which are to be considered for system addition are obtained from various pre-feasibility and feasibility studies commissioned by CEB in the recent past.These data are used on computer models and a series of simulations are conducted to derive the feasible optimum

300、generation expansion sequence.1.7 Objectives The objectives of the generation planning studies conducted by CEB are,(a)To determine the Demand Forecast for next 25 years.(b)To investigate the feasibility of new generating plants for addition to the system in terms of plant and system characteristics

301、.Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Page 1-15 (c)To specifically investigate the future operations of the hydro-thermal system in order to determine the most economical operating policy for reservoirs,hydro and thermal plants.(d)To conduct system simulation studies to determine the economically optimum

302、mix of generating plants to meet the forecast demand and the acceptable reliability levels in the 20 year period ahead.(e)To investigate the robustness of the economically optimum plan by analyzing its sensitivity to changes in the key input parameters.1.8 Structure of the Report The Long Term Gener

303、ation Expansion Plan 2020-2039 consists of the following chapters as indicated in the Grid Code.Chapter 2 Presents the existing and committed generation system of Sri Lanka.Chapter 3 The past and forecast electricity demand with the forecasting methodology is explained.Chapter 4 Thermal Generation o

304、ptions for the future system expansions are discussed.Chapter 5 Renewable Generation options for the future system expansions are discussed.Chapter 6 Explains the Generation expansion planning guidelines,methodology and the parameters.Chapter 7 Explains the Development of the Reference Case.Chapter

305、8 Describes the Development of the Base Case and Sensitivity Analysis.Chapter 9 Focuses on Policy and Scenario Analysis.Chapter 10 Discusses the Environmental implications of the expansion plan.Chapter 11 Elaborates the Recommendations of the Base Case Plan.Chapter 12 Based on required implementatio

306、n schedule and investments for the generation projects.Chapter 13 Shall concentrate on the contingency analysis on the provided plan.Chapter 14 Provides a comparison of this year plan with the previous plan.Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Page 2-1 CHAPTER 2 THE EXISTING AND COMMITTED GENERATING SYSTE

307、M The existing generating system in the country is mainly owned by CEB with a considerable share owned by the private sector.Until 1996 the total electricity system was owned by CEB.Since 1996,private sector has also participated in power generation.The existing generating system in the country has

308、approximately 4046 MW of installed capacity by 2019 including non-dispatchable plants of capacity 610 MW owned by private sector developers.The majority of dispatchable capacity is owned by CEB(i.e.about 84%of the total dispatchable capacity),which includes 1398.85 MW of hydro and 1504 MW of thermal

309、 generation capacity.Balance dispatchable capacity,which is totally thermal plants,is owned by Independent Power Producers(IPPs).2.1 Hydro and Other Renewable Power Generation Hydropower is the main renewable source of generation in the Sri Lanka power system and it is mainly owned by CEB.However,ot

310、her renewable sources such as mini hydro,wind,solar,dendro,and biomass are also connected to the system,which are owned by the private sector developers.2.1.1 CEB Owned Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants Most of the comparatively large scale hydro resources in Sri Lanka have been developed by th

311、e CEB.At present,hydro projects having capacities below 10MW(termed mini hydro),are allowed to be developed by private sector as run-of river plants and larger hydro plants are to be developed by the CEB.Since these run-of river type mini hydro plants are non-dispatchable,they are modeled differentl

312、y from CEB owned hydro plants in the generation expansion planning simulations.The operation and maintenance cost of these CEB hydro power plants was taken as 12.24 US$/kW per annum.(a)Existing System The existing CEB generating system has a substantial share based on hydropower(i.e.1398.85 MW hydro

313、 out of 2903 MW of total CEB installed capacity).Approximately 48%of the total existing CEB system capacity is installed in 17 hydro power stations and 32%of the total energy demand was met by the major hydro plants in 2018.Details of the existing and committed hydro system are given in Table 2.1 an

314、d the geographical locations of the Power Stations are shown in the Figure 2.1.The major hydropower schemes already developed are associated with Kelani and Mahaweli river basins.Five hydro power stations with a total installed capacity of 369.8 MW(26%of the total hydropower capacity)have been built

315、 in Laxapana Complex where two cascaded systems are associated with the two main tributaries of Kelani River,Kehelgamu Oya and Maskeliya Oya.The five stations in this complex are generally not required to operate for irrigation or other water requirements;hence they are primarily designed to meet th

316、e power requirements of the country.Castlereigh and Moussakelle are the major storage reservoirs in the Laxapana hydropower complex located at main tributaries Kehelgamu Oya and Maskeliya Oya respectively.Castlereigh reservoir with active storage of 52 MCM feeds the Wimalasurendra Power Station of c

317、apacity 2 x 25MW at Norton-bridge,while Canyon 2 x 30MW is fed from the Moussakelle reservoir of storage 108 MCM.Page 2-2 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Table 2.1-Existing and Committed Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants Plant Name Units x Capacity Capacity(MW)Expected Annual Avg.Energy(GWh)Acti

318、ve Storage(MCM)Rated Head(m)Year of Commissioning Canyon 2 x 30 60 160 107.9(Moussakelle)207.2 1983-Unit 1 1989-Unit 2 Wimalasurendra 2 x 25 50 112 52.01(Castlereigh)227.38 1965 Old Laxapana 3x 9.6+2x12.5 53.8 286 0.245(Norton)472.4 1950 1958 New Laxapana 2 x 58 116 552 0.629(Canyon)541 Unit 1 1974

319、Unit 2 1974 Polpitiya 2 x 45 90 453 0.113(Laxapana)259 1969 Laxapana Total 369.8 1563 Upper Kotmale 2 x 75 150 409 0.8 473 Unit 1-2012 Unit 2-2012 Victoria 3 x 70 210 865 688 190 Unit 1-1985 Unit 2-1984 Unit 3-1986 Kotmale 3 x 67 201 498 154 201.5 Unit 1-1985 Unit 2&3 88 Randenigala 2 x 61.3 122.6 4

320、54 462 77.8 1986 Ukuwela 2 x 20 40 154 2.1 75.1 Unit 1&2 76 Bowatenna 1 x 40 40 48 23.5 50.9 1981 Rantambe 2 x 25 50 239 3.4 32.7 1990 Nilambe 2 x 1.6 3.2-0.005 110 1988 Mahaweli Total 816.8 2667 Samanalawewa 2 x 60 120 344 218 320 1992 Kukule 2 x 37.5 75 300 1.67 186.4 2003 Small hydro 17.25 Samana

321、la Total 212.25 644 Existing Total 1398.85*4874 Committed Broadlands 2x17.5 35 126 0.198 56.9 2020 Moragolla 2x15.1 30.2 97.6 1.98 69 2023 Mannar Wind Park 103.5 337 2020 Multi-Purpose Projects Uma Oya 2x61 122 290 0.7 722 2021 Total 290.7 850.6*Note:*According to feasibility studies.*3MW wind proje

322、ct at Hambantota not included.Generation Expansion Plan-2019 Page 2-3 Figure 2.1-Location of Existing,Committed and Candidate Power Stations The development of the major hydro-power resources under the Mahaweli project added seven hydro power stations(Ukuwela,Bowatenna,Kotmale,Upper Kotmale,Victoria

323、,Randenigala and Rantambe)to the national grid with a total installed capacity of 817 MW(58.4%of the total hydropower capacity).Three major reservoirs,Kotmale,Victoria and Randenigala,which were built under the accelerated Mahaweli development program,feed the power stations installed with these res

324、ervoirs.The latest major power station in this system is 150MW Upper Kotmale hydro power plant.Polgolla-diversion weir(across Mahaweli Ganga),downstream of Kotmale and upstream of Victoria,diverts Mahaweli waters to irrigation systems via Ukuwela power station(40 MW).After generating electricity at

325、Ukuwela power station the water is discharged to Sudu Ganga,upstream of Amban Ganga,which carries water to Bowatenna reservoir.It then feeds both Bowatenna power station(40MW)and No.Power Plant Capacity MW Hydro Power Plants(Existing)1 Canyon 60 2 Wimalasurendra 50 3 New Laxapana 116 4 Old Laxapana

326、53.8 5 Polpitiya 90 6 Kotmale 201 7 Victoria 210.3 8 Randenigala 126.8 9 Rantambe 51.8 10 Ukuwela 38.6 11 Bowatenna 40 12 Samanalawewa 120 13 Udawalawe 6 14 Inginiyagala 11.25 15 Nilambe 3.2 16 Kukule 75 17 Upper Kotmale 150 18 Moragahakanda 25 Hydro Power Plants(Committed)19 Broadlands 35 20 Uma Oy

327、a 122 21 Moragolla 30.2 Hydro Power Plants(Candidate)22 Thalpitigala 15 23 Seethawaka 24 Other Renewable(Committed)24 Mannar Wind Park 100 Thermal Power Plants A Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant 900 B Kelanithissa PP,Sojitz PP 523 C Sapugaskanda PP,Asia Power 211 D Uthuru Janani 27 E CEB Barge Mounted Pla

328、nt 60 F West Coast PP 300 G Northern Power 38 H ACE Power Embilipitiya 100 H 24 Page 2-4 Generation Expansion Plan-2019 mainly Mahaweli System-H by means of separate waterways.Water discharged through Bowatenna power station goes to Elahera Ela and is available for diversion to Mahaweli systems D an

329、d G.The schematic diagrams of the hydro reservoir networks are shown in Annex 2.1.Unlike the Laxapana cascade,the Mahaweli system is operated as a multi-purpose system.Hence power generation from the associated power stations is governed by the down-stream irrigation requirements as well.These requi

330、rements being highly seasonal which in turn affects the operation of these power stations during certain periods of the year.Samanalawewa hydro power plant of capacity 120MW was commissioned in 1992.Samanalawewa reservoir,which is on Walawe River and with active storage of 218 MCM,feeds this power p

331、lant.Kukule power project which was commissioned in 2003,is a run-of river type plant located on Kukule Ganga,a tributary of Kalu Ganga.Kukule power plant is 70 MW in capacity and which provides an average of 300 GWh of energy per year under average hydro conditions.The contribution of the three sma

332、ll hydro plants(Inginiyagala 11.25MW,UdaWalawe-6MW and Nilambe 3.2MW)to the National Grid is comparatively small(20.45MW)and is dependent on irrigation water releases from the respective reservoirs.(b)Committed Plants The 35MW Broadlands hydropower project located near Kithulagala on the Maskeliyaoy

333、a was considered as a committed plant.The dam site of the project is to be located near Polpitiya power house and in addition to the main dam,there will be a diversion weir across Kehelgamuoya.The project has a 0.198 MCM active storage and it is expected to generate 126GWh energy per annum.It will be added to the system in 2020.122MW Uma Oya multipurpose hydro power project was considered as a com