1、March 2023Automotive&Assembly PracticeFuture mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityProgress continued on many mobility fronts,even as challenges mounted.by Kersten Heineke and Timo MllerIn 2022,mobility was.on the move.This was a year of transition,which included some leaps forward and some ret

2、renchments.A few indicators of disruption became quite visibleeven part of daily life.More and more electric vehicles(EVs)can now be seen cruising down the roads.Newly installed charging points are popping up in many countries.Novel business models(for instance,cars as a subscription service or as a

3、 direct-to-consumer product)have blossomed.In city centers,car use has come under increasing scrutiny from government authorities,and micromobility options,such as electric scooters,are increasing.As for other realms of mobility,2022 was a year for realignment.Investments in air mobility failed to e

4、qual 2021s record,though many players are advancing their technologies and inching closer to regulatory approval.The fanfare around autonomous drivingonce the subject of record-breaking funding announcements,seemingly on a weekly basishas apparently subsided.But leading entrants are making tremendou

5、s technological progress,scaling their operations across multiple cities,and laying a path toward greater customer acceptance.The automotive sector faced significant headwinds,generated in large part by geopolitical issues and macroeconomic uncertainty.Many automakers have handled this difficult env

6、ironment with aplomb,building resilience in the expectation of a challenging near-term future.Some suppliers are suffering because of supply chain challenges and the contraction of the internal-combustion-engine market,but pockets of growth remain for those that can act boldly.In this article,we she

7、d light on the most important developments of the past 12 months and use the lenses of technology,customer sentiment,and the regulatory and operating environments to envision what those developments could mean in the year to come.Consumer psychologys influence on mobilityA panoply of consumer archet

8、ypesor personashas been emerging and will play a role in shaping mobilitys future(Exhibit 1).Some personas will become more widespread over time.Others will fade or evolve.In urban areas,non-car-centric personas are poised to proliferate.Members of this group will probably sell their current cars wi

9、thout replacing them,or at least drive those cars much less often,reducing the frequency of replacement and thus spending on vehicles.Sometimes decisions will reflect“eco-hyperawareness.”Sometimes theyll result in larger part from concerns about the rising cost of car ownership.Leading autonomous-dr

10、iving entrants are making tremendous technological progress,scaling their operations across multiple cities,and laying a path toward greater customer acceptance.2Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityMicromobility enthusiasts enjoy zipping around town on e-bikes and stand-up electric sco

11、oters,aka e-kickscooters.These consumers tend to use and own different types of micromobility vehicles.The“multimodal urbanist”persona is partial to a sort of portfolio play,believing theres a proper form factor for any given travel purpose.Car-centric consumer personas will endure,but their definit

12、ion of“car”might expand to include emissions-free models.They might also begin to supplement car usage with other types of mobility more often.Micromobility evolves,minimobility enters the sceneBefore the COVID-19 pandemic,funding levels in the shared-micromobility industry(primarily electric bicycl

13、es,mopeds,and e-kickscooters)Exhibit 1McKinsey&CompanyWhere the mobility landscape is headed in the next 10 years,by driver archetype,%Shifting consumer personas will determine the shape of mobilitys future.Note:Figures may not sum to 100%,because of rounding.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobili

14、ty;McKinsey analysisCar fanaticMy car gives me freedomand I drive for funI need to get from A to Bas cheaply as possibleI rely on the known anddont like to change myestablished mobility behaviorI still need a car but activelyseek to reduce my tripsand consider moresustainable optionsI use whatever i

15、s availableto get me from A to B asconveniently as possibleI need a car to master myeveryday life but couldconsider swapping forother optionsI actively seek to be emission-free in my mobilityI ride a bicycle or a kickscooterto get around town I am always among the frstto try new mobility ofersCost-c

16、onstrainedtravelerMobilitytraditionalistObjectivelycar-dependenttravelerEco-conscious carcomplementorMultimodalurbanistNet-zeroenthusiastMicromobilityenthusiastMobility innovationpioneerTodayIn 10 years89731726685513Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realitysoared in line with gro

17、wing ridership.From 2015 to 2019,almost$7 billion was invested in this market.Funding contracted sharply in 2020,to roughly$800 million,but the industry soon resumed its growth trajectory,with capital flows rising again in concert.In 2021,micromobility players attracted approximately$2.9 billion in

18、new investment,primarily for e-kickscooters.In 2023,we expect that investments in the privately held ecosystem supporting e-bikes will proceed apace but project that micromobility investors,in general,will sharpen their focus on profitability.This could further the industrys ongoing consolidation.Me

19、anwhile,investment flows might continue to shift away from Asia and toward Europe(Exhibit 2).Another mobility segment has gained traction below the surface.Minimobility options,which include three-and four-wheeled EVs that can fit one or two people,sit in the space between cars and bicycles.These ve

20、hicles have an average weight from 100 to 500 kilograms(about 220 to 1,100 pounds)when unoccupied.Depending on the vehicle type and local regulations,their maximum speed varies from 25 to 90 kilometers(about 15.5 to 56 miles an hour).If interest continues to rise,and regulators are on board,the mini

21、mobility segment could reach a total addressable market of$100 billion annually across China,Europe,and North America by 2030.In a 2021 McKinsey survey of 26,000 people across eight countries,more than 30 percent of the respondents stated that they were likely or very likely to consider using a mini

22、mobility vehicle as one of their future mobility options.Viewpoints varied dramatically by geographic region,however(Exhibit3).Autonomous vehicles:The rise of the robo-taxi and robo-shuttleIn 2022,the fortunes of various robo-taxi and robo-shuttle players diverged:some discontinued development,while

23、 others announced aggressive efforts to scale up their businesses.Strategic investors swallowed smaller players in transactions that were primarily intended for“acquihires.”Exhibit 2McKinsey&CompanyShare of publicly disclosed investments into micromobility companies,by region,1%Europe surpasses Asia

24、 in levels of micromobility investment.1Figures may not sum to 100%,because of rounding.The geographic split is based on the money invested in companies headquartered in diferent regions,not the source of investment.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 201822North AmericaAsiaEuropeTotal invest

25、ment,$billion8.44.53.9204293728Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityWe expect consolidation to continue in 2023especially for smaller and lagging competitorswhich will ultimately strengthen the marketplace.Outside China,we project that only two to four players will

26、 eventually provide fully autonomous robo-taxi and robo-shuttle technology.Consumers could benefit from per-mile costs lower than those of other transportation options in coming years(Exhibit 4).Robo-taxis might be favored in the United States.Europe will more likely favor robo-shuttles,which could

27、steal significant modal mix share from private vehicles,so that cities and citizens can reclaim space from private cars.Air mobility continues to attract fundingUrban and advanced air mobilitya segment that includes electric vertical takeoff and landing(eVTOL)aircraftenjoyed record funding in 2021:r

28、oughly$6.9 billion in new investments.Funding cooled in 2022,partly as a result of macroeconomic conditions,but remained well ahead of its prepandemic pace(Exhibit 5).Leading eVTOL players are following aggressive time lines,hoping to achieve important certifications by the mid-2020s.Meanwhile,Exhib

29、it 3McKinsey&CompanyConsideration of minimobility usage and impliedprivate-vehicle replacement,%of respondentsConsideration of private-vehicle replacement globally,%of respondentsMore than 30 percent of surveyed global consumers indicated they would use a minimobility vehicle in their future mobilit

30、y mix.AustraliaBrazilChinaGermanyItalyJapanSouth KoreaUSGlobal average057329205353535261756312346NotlikelyRatherlikelyLikely3554Yes,I would replace myprivate vehicle completelyNo,but I would consider getting a minimobility vehicle as an extension to my private vehicl

31、e for selected tripsNo,I would not consider replacing my private vehicle with a minimobility vehicleQuestion:How likely are you to consider using a minimobility vehicle as part of your future mobility mix?Question:Would you consider eventually replacing your private vehicle entirely with a minimobil

32、ity vehicle?Source:McKinsey ACES survey,2021(n=26,000)5Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityincumbents are trying to catch up:72 percent of the largest 25 aircraft OEMs and 64 percent of the largest 25 suppliers now participate in some type of advanced air mobility activity.The upcoming

33、 year will pose a crucial test for entrants that wish to stay on path for near-term flight certification.Exhibit 4McKinsey&CompanyEnd customer cost,$per mile on relative basisLower rangeUpper range1Depending on car type for 10,000 miles per year.2Estimation based on a 5-mile trip with a 5-minute wai

34、ting time in Dallas and Los Angeles.3Estimation based on a 5-mile,15-minute trip in Dallas and New York.4Assuming 3 passengers on average and 10%additional miles.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility;Uber fare data;US Department of Transportation mileage dataMobility costs could decline in the

35、coming decade as pooled robo-shuttles emerge at scale.04567PrivatecarTaxiPersonalride-hailingPooledride-hailingPublictransitRobo-taxi(not pooled)Robo-shuttles(pooled)Today2030+The upcoming year will pose a crucial test for advanced air mobility entrants that wish to stay on path for near-

36、term flight certification.6Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityEV uptake differs by region and segmentA successful net-zero transition will require dramatically increased EV sales in coming decades(Exhibit 6).Recent trends have included some regional divergences in EV adoption rates.La

37、st year,uptake rose by about 80 percent in China and by about 40 percent in the United States(compared with 2021).But Europe remains roughly at 2021 levels.The slowdown reflects declining subsidies,high prices for electricity,and the rising cost of raw materialsup 120 percent for lithium,to give one

38、 example.If conditions dont change,EV sales in the European Union could continue to slow.So could overall car sales,as individual mobility becomes more and more expensive for many Europeans.Meanwhile,in the United States,long-term uptake could be accelerated by recently legislated subsidies that sup

39、port EV purchasing,battery cell production,and the build-out of charging infrastructure.With a continued generous regulatory push,the United States could reach EV penetration on par with European levels.An EV adoption divide has also begun to emerge between segments.Buyers in the premium segment are

40、 less price sensitive and more likely to charge electric vehicles at home.Premium OEMs are also setting ambitious EV targets.As a result,the premium segment is two years ahead of the volume segment in the pace of electrification.Exhibit 5McKinsey&CompanyTotal disclosed funding,as of June 30,2022 1In

41、cludes venture capital,disclosed R&D(including$1.5 billion from Hyundai in 2020),private investment in public equity,and funding from special purpose acquisition companies.Year based on transaction announcement date.2Electric vertical takeof and landing aircraft.Source:CB Insights;PitchBook;S&P Glob

42、al;McKinsey analysisFunding for future air mobility has accelerated signifcantly in recent years.30201020130.69811060.10.20.20.60.61.03.06.92022H120132022H120132022H12.2040506070Value of deals,$billionNumber of dealsAverage deal size,$millionPassenger eVTOL2Surveillance/cargo droneSuperso

43、nicSustainable aviationFuture airmobility ecosystem7Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityBatteries remain in high demandAs a result of increased EV production,demand for batteries is surgingand further acceleration is expected(Exhibit 7).To provide commensurate supply,more and larger ba

44、ttery factories will be needed around the world.So far,announcements about future battery supply capabilities roughly match expected demand.But we project that a significant portion of announced future supply will not materialize in a timely manner,so shortages will probably occur.Regional mismatche

45、s in supply and demand could create additional bottlenecks.Despite rising local demand,China will probably continue to have significant excessive production capacity,for instance,while Europe and North America might not be able to meet their own local demand for cell production.The US Inflation Redu

46、ction Act,with its subsidies for battery makers,has made North American production a more appealing option.Further regional regulatory announcements could reshape the attractiveness of battery production in other locales,such as Europe.To support the scale-up,battery manufacturers will need to secur

47、e additional manufacturing equipment and raw materials.This could pose challenges.Australia and Chile,for example,now produce about 70 percent of the worlds supply of lithiumwhich could be a limiting factor.Supply chain snags,and shortages of raw materials such as nickel,could also influence shifts

48、in favored battery chemistry.Exhibit 6McKinsey&CompanyMobility 2022Exhibit 6 of 12By 2035,the largest automotive markets in China,the European Union,and the United States will be fully electric.BEV,FCEV,and PHEV sales as a share of new passenger vehicle sales,%by scenarioBEV,FCEV,and PHEV sales as a

49、 share of new passenger vehicle sales,%by country/regionBattery electric vehicle.Fuel cell electric vehicle.Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.Source:McKinsey Center for Future MobilityUSEUChina0204060800100CurrenttrajectoryFurtheraccelerationAchievedcommitments202020252030203520202025203020

50、358Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityEventually,the battery market could be even more dramatically disrupted by developments in next-generation batteries(for example,silicon anode and solid-state varieties),as well as new technologies,such as sodium ion.Europe must ramp up the chargi

51、ng infrastructureWith more EVs on roads in Europe,it will need a major build-out of its EV-charging infrastructure.A recent analysis suggests that in even the most conservative scenario,the EU-27 will require at least 3.4 million operational public-charging points by 2030a significant step up from t

52、he estimated 375,000 charging stations in 2021(Exhibit 8).Extensive utility grid upgrades will be necessary to distribute electricity to these new charging stations.Higher renewable-energy production capacity will be needed to supply those grids with clean power.In all,the build-out of Europes EV-ch

53、arging infrastructure might cumulatively cost upward of 240 billion by 2030.Exhibit 7McKinsey&CompanyMobility 2022Exhibit 7 of 12By 2030,40 percent of global battery demand could come from Chinaevenly split between the top two battery chemistries.Demand for lithium-ion batteries,201530,gigawatt-hour

54、s(GWh)Breakdown of demand,2030,GWh01,000200302,0003,0004,00001,0002,0003,0004,000Consumer electronicsGrid storageMobilityannually+32%By geographyBy chemistryRest ofworldUSEUChinaOtherLithium cobalt oxideNickel cobaltaluminumNickelmanganesecobaltLithium ironphosphate9Future mobility 2022:H

55、ype transitions into realitySemiconductor shortages persistDemand for automotive semiconductors continues to outpace supply,but the gap varies by node size(Exhibit 9).For nodes greater than 90 nanometers(nm),which are in high demand by the automotive industry,the shortage is likely to persist becaus

56、e mature nodes have low profit margins.Some customers value the low price points for these nodes and have little incentive to migrate to smaller ones.For wafers from 22 to 65 nm,the shortage will not be fully resolved over the short to medium term but may lessen if(as expected)semiconductor companie

57、s increase supply.Overall,however,it is difficult to predict the size of the demandsupply gap for specific products that use smaller nodes,because of the high heterogeneity of device types and technologies.Semiconductor shortages will probably persist until 2026,given the long lead times for chip ma

58、nufacturing.To mitigate chip supply issues,OEMs can take several steps,including these:establishing control rooms that combine staff from procurement,supply chain management,and sales to help ensure that near-term supplies of semiconductors dont drop to unacceptable levelsExhibit 8McKinsey&CompanyMo

59、bility 2022Exhibit 8 of 12Target rate refects utilization-oriented scenario described in the European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA)report.2Alternating current.3Direct current.4There are 470 weeks left until the end of 2030 and some 3 million public-charging points to be installed.Source

60、:European Alternative Fuels Observatory;national transport and mobility organizations;McKinsey analysisThe pace of public-charger installations in Europe must quadruple by 2025.Installed public-charging points for electric vehicles(EVs),number of installations per weekAverage acceleration of weekly

61、EV-charging infrastructure rollout needed by mid-2020s to reach required number of public AC2 and DC3 charging points41,600 per week is current rate of installation of new charging points6,000 per week is target rate for installation of new charging points4202,50010Future mobility 2022:Hy

62、pe transitions into reality charting clear technology road maps that more precisely define future semiconductor needs(for next-generation products,among other things)jointly investing with suppliers in projects to improve capacityThe growing importance of softwareAutomotive companies and their suppl

63、iers continue to invest heavily in software.By 2030,the global automotive software and electronics market is expected to reach$462 billiona 5.5 percent CAGR from 2019 to 2030(Exhibit 10).In contrast,the overall automotive market for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles is projected to grow a

64、t a compound annual rate of only 1 percent during the same period.This divergence,reflecting a significant shift in the future of mobility,has been propelled by the expansion of urban access restrictions,Exhibit 9McKinsey&CompanyMobility 2022Exhibit 9 of 0078732547849552616562172A combina

65、tion of structural issues and crisis reactions has led to semiconductor shortages across all industries.Global semiconductor demand and supply,2022,300-millimeter equivalent,million wafers per yearShare of global semiconductor demand,by node size,2021,%Note:Figures may not sum to 100%,because of rou

66、nding.1Supply is installed capacity in million 300-millimeter(mm)-equivalent wafers;demand foundation is conversion of million square inches into million 300-mm-equivalent wafers.Source:Omdia Semiconductor Silicon Demand Forecast Tool(Q1 2022);SEMI World Fab Forecast(Mar 2022);McKinsey analysisDeman

67、dSupplycapacityForecastdemand90 nanometer(nm)Node size:2265 nm IncreasedstocklevelCrisisreaction Over-orderingCAGR analysis,202125,1%DemandSupplyDiference14 nmNode size:2265 nm90 nm98157+2541Allindustries,%of totaldemandAutomotive industry,%of automotivedemandShortage11Future mobility 2022:Hype tran

68、sitions into realitysuch as bans on internal-combustion-engine vehicles in city centers;the rising adoption of nonownership models,including car sharing and micromobility;and disruptive technologies,such as urban autonomous driving.In this environment,automotive companies look to software and electr

69、onics as the next frontier for transforming the industry.Ongoing pressure on automotive suppliersOver the past four years,as players across the automotive value chain increased their margins,the profitability of automotive suppliers fell by half.In 2022,the margin pressures for automotive suppliers

70、accelerated for various reasons,including shortages of semiconductors and energy,increasing costs for raw materials and freight,supply base consolidation,shrinking demand,Exhibit 10McKinsey&CompanyMobility 2022Exhibit 10 of 12The automotive software and electronics market is expected to grow at 5.5

71、percent per year through 2030.Note:This is a forecast for light vehicles,including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.1 Electrical and electronic components.2Electronic control units and domain control units.Hardware only.3Includes onboard charger,direct current(DC)/DC converter,and high-v

72、oltage inverter.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Automotive software and E/E1 market by components,$billionSoftware(functions,operating system,middleware)Integration,verifcation,and validation servicesECUs/DCUs2SensorsPower electronics(excluding battery cells)3Other electronic components(w

73、iring harness,displays,speakers,board net)Vehicle production,million vehiclesCAGR 201930,%2062+5.5352257+9.2+9.7+4.8+6.3+23.1+2.24246332612+1.3%per annum202520302099310212Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realityand the volatility(sometimes daily)

74、of automotive production volumes(Exhibit 11).In 2023,we project that margin pressures will continue because of ongoing macroeconomic,geopolitical,and technological disruptions.Increases in the cost of labor and energy could add to the squeeze.Automotive suppliers will need to focus on keeping their

75、costs in check.Possible cost reduction measures include the following:ensuring that OEMs provide strong support(through,for example,indexation,raw-material clauses,or direct or directed buy programs)to compensate for price increases revising OEM contracts and booking longer-term commitments to stabi

76、lize volumes adapting portfolios and canceling smaller,unprofitable programs rightsizing footprints and overhead costsWe also project that suppliers of components for internal-combustion-engine vehicles will experience future consolidation as production of those vehicles declines.Demand for zero-emi

77、ssions trucksFor electric light commercial vehicles,hockey stick growth in demand could outstrip supply.In this market,many companies are looking for zero-emissions delivery vehicles because of various factors:more stringent decarbonization regulations in both the United States and Europe,at the nat

78、ional and the city levels environmental,social,and governance accounting standards(which expand accountability across the value chain)for Scope 3 emissions the desire to take advantage of emerging low-cost financing to reduce the costs of a transition to zero-emissions vehiclesExhibit 11McKinsey&Com

79、panyWeb 2023Mobility 2022Exhibit 11 of 12 Hit to cost base by supplier type,%of afected suppliersUtility,gas,and electricity shortages and cost infationFreight costs,volume fuctuation,foreign exchange efectsRaw material cost infation Semiconductor shortagesSignifcant hit Hit No hit5046415

80、5035Represents approximately more than 5 percentage points of EBIT.Represents approximately 1 to 5 percentage points of EBIT.Source:CLEPA and McKinsey Pulse Check SurveyAutomotive suppliers are facing price increases that create margin pressures.13Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into reality g

81、reater corporate commitments to ambitious emissions reduction targets in response to rising consumer demand for more sustainable products fluctuating energy prices and a general decline in the cost of battery packs,both of which are pushing the total cost of ownership toward parityeven today,in cert

82、ain use casesbetween zero-emissions vehicles and their diesel-powered counterparts(Exhibit 12)In 2022,mobility shifted away from major new announcements and concepts and toward a sharpened focus on implementation and scaling.Traditional OEMs and tier-one suppliers remained Exhibit 12McKinsey&Company

83、Web 2023Mobility 2022Exhibit 12 of 12Fluctuating energy prices and general declines in the cost of battery packs are pushing the total cost of ownership of zero-emissions vehicles toward parity.Total cost of ownership(TCO)parity point with diesel trucks in Europe,yearsOn-demand long-haul HDT 2022203

84、2+20222032+20222032+Weight40 tonsRange800 kmAnnual mileage175,000 kmOn-demand long-haul HDT Regional distribution HDT Weight40 tonsRange500 kmAnnual mileage125,000 kmWeight18 tonsRange300 kmAnnual mileage60,000 kmBEVFCEVParity withincentivesParity withoutincentives10%advantageNote:TCO model assumes

85、the following cost levels for heavy-duty,long-haul,line-haul truck in Europe in 2030:up-front vehicle costs.1Battery electric vehicle.2Fuel cell electric vehicle.3TCO breakeven including Germany-like incentives,subsidy covering 80%of up-front cost gap with diesel(currently valid until 2024)and 100%d

86、iscount on tolls.TCO breakeven with diesel in European markets.Heavy-duty trucks.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility14Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into realitypreoccupied with the short-term effects of supply chain issues and the transition to electric vehicles.Disruptors marched ahe

87、adbut faced increasing consolidation.Meanwhile,regulators continued to pressure players to decarbonize more quickly.Cities ramped up their urban-mobility initiatives.And consumer interest in sustainable(and shared)mobility accelerated further and will almost certainly continue to accelerate.The indu

88、stry landscape will have a very different shape beyond 2030.But the next 18 to 24 months could indicate who the winners on the other side of that transformation might be.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights AppDesigned by McKinsey Global PublishingCopyright 2

89、023 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Kersten Heineke is a partner in McKinseys Frankfurt office,and Timo Mller is a partner in the Cologne office.The authors wish to thank Susanne Birkhold,Saral Chauhan,Julian Conzade,Michael Guggenheimer,Antonia Gutzler,Martin Hattrup-Silberberg,Benedikt Kloss,

90、Nicolas Laverty,Felix Rupalla,Patrick Schaufuss,and Alexandre van de Rijt for their contributions to this article.Additionally,the authors wish to thank all members of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility team for their research activities in 2022.15Future mobility 2022:Hype transitions into reality