1、fc Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2023 Report IEA-PVPS T1-44:2023 Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach PVPS Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets What is IEA PVPS TCP?The International Energy Agency(IEA),founded in 1974,is an autonomous body within the fram

2、ework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD).The Technology Collaboration Programme(TCP)was created with a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts with global collaboration.The programme is made up of 6000 experts across government,academia,and

3、 industry dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies.The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme(IEA PVPS)is one of the TCPs within the IEA and was established in 1993.The mission of the programme is to“enhance the international collaborative efforts

4、which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.”In order to achieve this,the Programmes participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications.The overall programme is headed by an Ex

5、ecutive Committee,comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member,which designates distinct Tasks,that may be research projects or activity areas.The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia,Austria,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Israel,Italy,Japan,Korea,M

6、alaysia,Morocco,the Netherlands,Norway,Portugal,South Africa,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Turkey,and the United States of America.The European Commission,Solar Power Europe,the Smart Electric Power Alliance,the Solar Energy Industries Association,the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore

7、 and Enercity SA are also members.Visit us at:www.iea-pvps.org What is IEA PVPS Task 1?The objective of Task 1 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme is promoting and facilitating the exchange and dissemination of information on the technical,economic,environmental and social aspects of PV

8、power systems.Task 1 activities support the broader PVPS objectives:to contribute to cost reduction of PV power applications,to increase awareness of the potential and value of PV power systems,to foster the removal of both technical and non-technical barriers and to enhance technology co-operation.

9、Authors Data:IEA PVPS Reporting Countries,Becquerel Institute(BE).For the non-IEA PVPS countries:Izumi Kaizuka(RTS Corporation),Arnulf Jger-Waldau(EU-JRC),Jose Donoso(UNEF).Analysis:Gatan Masson,Elina Bosch,Adrien Van Rechem,Melodie de lEpine(Becquerel Institute)Editor:Gatan Masson,IEA PVPS Task 1 M

10、anager.Design:IEA PVPS DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency(IEA)but is functionally and legally autonomous.Views,findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its in

11、dividual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts in the relevant countries.Data are valid at the date of publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries due to the publication date.COVER PICTURE 4.6MW PV system on an old in

12、dustrial site at Retzwiller(France)image credits:TRYBA ENERGY.ISBN 978-3-907281-43-7:2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME IEA PVPS Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach Report IEA-PVPS T1-44:2023 April 2023 ISBN 978-3-907281-43-7 Tas

13、k 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents.3 Executive Summary.4 1 Snapshot of the Global PV Market in 2022.6 1.1 Evolution of Annual Installations.6 1.2 Impact of International Trade Disruptions and the Ukraine War.7 1.3 The Top M

14、arkets in 2022.8 2 Market Segmentation.9 3 Cumulative Installed Capacity in the World.10 4 Evolution of Regional PV Installations.10 5 Limits of Reporting Conventions.12 5.1 Decommissioning,Repowering and Recycling.12 5.2 AC or DC Numbers?.13 6 Electricity Production from PV.13 7 Policy&Markets Tren

15、ds.14 7.1 Policy Trends.14 7.2 Competitive Tenders&Merchant PV.15 7.3 Prosumers Policies.15 7.4 Grid Access Policies.16 7.5 Local Manufacturing Policies.16 8 PV in the Broader Energy Transition.17 8.1 PV and Other Renewable Energy Evolutions.17 8.2 Impact of PV Development on CO2 Emissions.18 8.3 PV

16、 Fostering Development of a Cleaner Energy System.19 Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The global PV base once again grew significantly in 2022,reaching 1 185 GW(1,2 TW)of cumulative capacity according to preliminary market data,both des

17、pite and because of post-covid prices hikes and European geo-political strife.With 240 GW of new systems installed and commissioned,and nearly a dozen countries with penetration rates over 10%,(over 19%for Spain!),PV has demonstrated that it is a serious,major,long-term contributor to cost competiti

18、ve electricity generation and emissions reductions of the energy sector.Major trends include:The Chinese market continues to dominate both new and cumulative capacity and added 106 GW1DC or 44%of new capacity to reach 414,5 GW of cumulative capacity,more than double that in Europe.This strong growth

19、 follows that of previous years-54,9 GW in 2021 and 48,2 GW in 2020,and evenly balanced between centralised and distributed systems.Europe demonstrated continued strong growth with 39 GW installed,led by Spain(8,1 GW),Germany(7,5 GW),Poland(4,9 GW)and the Netherlands(3,9 GW).High electricity market

20、prices have reinforced the competitivity of PV and several countries have acted policies to further accelerate PV in line with EU and national energy sovereignty engagements whilst others are enacting policies to reduce injections because of grid congestion.The American market contracted to 18,6 GW

21、under the combined influence of trade issues and grid connection backlogs,whilst Brazil installed a high 9,9 GW,nearly doubling the previous years new capacity.India once again showed strong growth with 18,1 GW,predominantly in centralised systems,and a PV penetration of nearly 10%.Strong volumes fr

22、om Australia(3,9 GW despite supply chain issues),and Korea round out the regional market.Japan remained steady at 6,5 GW,the same as in 2021.Nine countries now have penetration rates over 10%with Spain,Greece and Chile above 17%,and whilst grid congestion has become an issue,policy measures,technica

23、l solutions and storage are already providing workable solutions to enhance PV penetration.Individual markets remain sensitive to policy support despite competitivity across most market segments in many countries,however policy support is moving to indirect measures such as accelerated permitting or

24、 facilitating prosumer models or managing grid congestion.Increasing concerns about the concentration of the upstream supply chain in China has led to initiatives and policy support for local manufacturing.PV played an important role in the reduction of the CO2 emissions from electricity in 2022,wit

25、h two-thirds of new renewable capacity installed in 2022,generating over 50%of generation from new renewable capacity and avoiding approximately 1 399 Mt of annual CO2 emissions,up 30%from 2021.This represents around 10%of the total electricity and heat sector emissions and 4%of all energy emissions

26、.This continued positioning PV as one of the key existing and developing solutions to fight climate change here and now.1 All capacity data in this report is DC,unless specified otherwise.For some countries,this means publishing different values to official data for example,Chinas National Energy Ad

27、ministration(NEA)publishes in AC and PVPS applies a conversion ratio from AC to DC.See section 5 for more information.Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 5 Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 6 1 SNAPSHOT OF THE GLOBAL

28、 PV MARKET IN 2022 IEA PVPS has distinguished itself throughout the years by producing unbiased reports on the development of PV all over the world,based on information from official government bodies and reliable industry sources.This 11th edition of the“Snapshot of Global PV Markets”aims at provid

29、ing preliminary information on how the PV market developed in 2022.The 28th edition of the PVPS complete“Trends in Photovoltaic Applications”report will be published in Q4 2023.1.1 Evolution of Annual Installations It appears that 1 185 GW represents the minimum installed cumulative capacity by the

30、end of 2022,and at least 240 GW of PV systems have been commissioned in the world last year.IEA PVPS countries2,for whom there is a firm level of certainty in the data,represented 953 GW(or 80%)of cumulative capacity and 184 GW(77%)of annual installations.In 2022,at least 23 countries installed more

31、 than 1 GW.Sixteen countries(not including the EU)now have more than 10 GW of total cumulative capacity,five have more than 40 GW.China alone represented 414,5 GW followed by the European Union(as EU27),which led rankings until 2015,but now ranks second(209,3 GW),the USA ranks third(142 GW)and Japan

32、 fourth(85 GW).Source:IEA PVPS With continued dynamic growth,China remains the major regional market in 2022 with over 45%of new capacity,a market share not seen since 2018;strong growth in Europe and to a lesser extent the USA and India account for another 30%.Figure 2 below illustrates the changin

33、g dynamics of the global PV market,and the influence of the Chinese PV market,2 For the purpose of this report,IEA PVPS countries are those that are either member in their own right or through the adhesion of the EC.0000038405077103 52400500300GWpFIGURE 1:EVOLUTION O

34、F ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONSNon IEA PVPS CountriesIEA PVPS CountriesJapanUSAEuropean UnionChina Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 7 but also the fast pace of growth in India and emerging countries.Japan,once a principal market maintains a steady rhythm of new

35、projects but with no market acceleration as elsewhere.Source:IEA PVPS 1.2 Impact of International Trade Disruptions and the Ukraine War After three years it is still difficult to precisely quantify the impacts of the pandemic.Of the principal markets,only India showed a contraction in 2020,and all o

36、ther principal markets showed growth through 2020 to 2022 despite significant disruption to the supply chain and trade with increases in polysilicon,glass,aluminium,steel,and freight costs,and hence module and system costs.In parallel,since early 2022 the political tensions in Europe and resulting r

37、educed gas acquisitions have resulted in much higher wholesale and domestic electricity prices,not just in Europe but across a range of other countries as far as Australia.The increase in costs,especially in 2022,do not seem to have slowed growth in PV markets apart from in India(where red tape cons

38、traints can explain much of the delays),although in some countries especially in Europe very competitive medium and large-scale systems were cancelled or put on hold as their business models couldnt hold up to increased costs.It is highly possible that stable costs could have led to faster growth ra

39、tes,although,considering manufacturing capacity,there may have still been prices rises on polysilicon,even if new manufacturing plans had been launched earlier.By mid-2022 transport and material costs were mostly stabilising,and PV markets continued to grow.Overall,it is difficult to distinguish if

40、this acceleration effect is stronger or weaker than the braking effect of higher PV hardware prices.8203330387717202738.744304855106.00500300200212022GWpFIGURE 2:2018-2022 GROWTH PER REGIONOther countriesOther IEA PVPS countriesIndiaJapanUSAEuro

41、pean UnionChina Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 8 The enhanced PV competitiveness in many countries has brought grid parity to a much larger range of segments than even 18 months ago,from domestic systems to utility scale systems,with impacts on policy an

42、d financing mechanisms that are discussed in Section 7.The resiliency of the PV market despite the major economic and logistic disruptions is remarkable and shows the potential of the technology to limit economic downturns and social damage brought on by regional or worldwide upheaval.Green recovery

43、 plans and better regulations could propel the PV industry far beyond the current installation trends to meet the Paris Climate Agreement.1.3 The Top Markets in 2022 The Chinese market grew again at a remarkable rate and installed 106 GW in 2022(up from 55 GW in 2021),or 44%of the global market.With

44、 38,9 GW of annual installations the European Union ranked second followed by the USA where an estimated 18,6 GW were installed,a market hit by trade disputes and grid connection backlogs,followed by India with an increased market of 18,1 GW.Brazil comes in fourth with an estimated 9,9 GW,the most d

45、ynamic market in Latin America.Note:The European Union grouped 27 European countries in 2022,out of which Germany,Spain,France,the Netherlands and Italy also appear in the Top Ten,either for the installed capacity or the annual installations.The European Commission is a member of IEA-PVPS through it

46、s Joint Research Centre(EU-JRC).Source:IEA PVPS To reach the Top Ten for new capacity in 2022,countries needed to install at least 3 GW of PV systems(compared to 1,5 GW in 2018).Korea and France gave way to Poland and the Netherlands despite reasonable performance.The Top Ten of total cumulative ins

47、talled capacities shows more inertia due to past levels of installations:France exited the Top Ten for cumulative installed capacity in 2022 and was replaced by Italy that is now back in the Top Ten.There remains a significant gap between the first five and the next five;Australia,Spain,Italy,Korea

48、and Brazil have very similar cumulative capacities of between 20 GW and 30 GW,under half as much as number five,Germany.Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 9 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION Preliminary data indicates that in absolute terms,both rooftop and utility scal

49、e segments grew in 2022.Market segments were balanced,with 48%of new capacity on rooftops.The share of the rooftop segment has been growing continuously since 2018 as markets open in new countries and decreasing costs makes it more accessible for residential and commercial investors,with notable vol

50、umes(2,5 GW)and market shares in China,Brazil,and Germany as well as Poland and Australia.On both segments new applications are in growth;from BIPV in the rooftop segment to utility scale floating PV.Still marginal but growing,agrivoltaic projects and BIPV are as yet hard to quantify,as are VIPV/VAP

51、V3 volumes(PV integrated in vehicles)although they are expected to develop well in the coming years.Technological evolutions,such as bifacial PV will also impact the development of these new market segments.Source:IEA PVPS,Becquerel Institute 3 BIPV Building Integrated PV;VIPV Vehicle Integrated PV;

52、VAPV-Vehicle Integrated PV 05003002000022GWpFIGURE 4:SEGMENTATION OF PV INSTALLATION 2013-2022ROOFTOPUTILITY SCALE Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 10 3 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN THE WORLD In 2022 the glob

53、al cumulative installed capacity passed the symbolic 1 TW mark,reaching an estimated 1 185 GW,as shown in Figure 5.Frontrunners-from China down to India and then Germany(67,2 GW)have at least 30 GW more than the next countries.Their positions are unlikely to be challenged in 2023 or 2024,not even a

54、doubling or tripling of Brazils dynamic 2022 market(9,9 GW)would be sufficient.Brazil joined the next group of countries with smaller,similar cumulative capacities of between 20 GW and 30 GW:Australia,Spain,Italy,Korea and now Brazil.Source:IEA PVPS 4 EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS The distr

55、ibution of regional market shares has remained steady since 2018.Asia Pacific has captured the major share with 64%of the total cumulative installed capacity in 2022(see Figure 6),driven by China with strong contributions from India.Japan installed a stable 6,5 GW whilst markets in both Korea(down t

56、o 3,6 GW)and Australia(3,9 GW)contracted slightly-supply chain challenges and investment lags in Australia should be resolved in 2023.Some smaller established Asian markets-Taiwan and Malaysia,also experienced growth in 2022,where other markets,such as Thailand,Singapore,Indonesia and the Philippine

57、s have seen only slow or intermittent growth over the years.In the European Union,Spain took the lead with 8,1 GW after four years steady between 4 GW and 5 GW annually.Germany followed closely with 7,5 GW after a fourth year of over 120%increase then Poland(4,9 GW installed)with a similar growth ra

58、te.The Netherlands 2310414.5468440756008001,0001,2001,4002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022GWpFIGURE 5:GLOBAL EVOLUTION OF CUMULATIVE PV INSTALLATIONS Other CountriesIEA PVPS CountriesIndiaJ

59、apanUSAEuropean UnionChina Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 11 ranked fourth with 3,9 GW installed.They are followed by France with 2,9 GW and Italy(2,5 GW).A further five countries installed over 1 GW:Denmark(1,6 GW),Greece(1,4 GW),and Austria and Hungary

60、 both at 1 GW.European countries not in the EU installed a combined 3,4 GW in 2022,led by Turkey(1,6 GW),Switzerland(850 MW)and the UK(555 MW).Notable growth was observed in Norway(+300%relative increase),Italy(+163%relative increase),Sweden(+96%)and Slovenia(+98%relative increase).Source:IEA PVPS D

61、espite the US markets underperformance(18,6 GW,down from 27 GW in 2021),the overall Americas market increased,pulled by strong growth in Brazil(9,9 GW installed in 2022),followed by Chile which installed around 1,8 GW and Mexico with 680 MW.The market in Canada grew at around 449 MW installed capaci

62、ty in 2022.In the Middle East and Africa,Israel installed an additional 1,2 GW,a significant increase compared to the previous year,followed by Qatar(0,8 GW).Africa and the Middle East represented around 3%of global PV installations in 2022 with off-grid installations growing rapidly and rooftop PV

63、outside of any regulatory scheme are progressing in many countries rapidly.02004006008001,0001,2001,4002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022GWpFIGURE 6:EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONSEuropeAsia PacificAfrica&Middle EastRo

64、WThe Americas Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 12 5 LIMITS OF REPORTING CONVENTIONS As the PV market grows constantly,reporting of PV installations is becoming more complex.IEA PVPS has decided to count all PV installations,both grid-connected and off-grid

65、,when numbers are reported,and to estimate the remaining part on unreported installations.For countries with historically significant capacity and good reporting,a slow yet growing gap between shipped/imported capacity and installed capacity can be attributed to several factors including conversion

66、factors from AC to DC,repowering and decommissioning.The extremely fast paced development of micro systems(plug&play systems with only a few modules),whilst not significant in overall volumes is symptomatic of the development of unreported systems reaching the market and sometimes being invisible to

67、 distribution system operators and data collection.Other market evolutions such as off-grid applications are difficult to track even in member countries,and significant growth in installations in third countries without a robust reporting system is also a likely source of underreporting.In light of

68、this,reporting here takes into account reported and expert estimates of new commissioned capacity as well as probable unreported volumes installed in one of the above contexts.Data on estimated shipped capacity,in inventories,has been incorporated in Figure 3 to improve market visibility.5.1 Decommi

69、ssioning,Repowering and Recycling Data published by IEA PVPS reports on new annual installed capacity and total cumulative installed capacity are based on official data in reporting countries.Depending on reporting practices,cumulative capacity(the sum of new annual capacity)may outstrip operating c

70、apacity as systems are decommissioned.Repowered capacities replace some decommissioned capacity but also generally increase operational capacity,as the repowered capacity is higher than the initial plant capacity due to PV module efficiency improvements.There is no standardised reporting on these su

71、bjects across IEA PVPS countries.Several countries already incorporate decommissioning of PV plants in their total capacity numbers by reducing the total cumulative number.Other countries report capacity in operation for that year,and do not include repowered volumes in new annual capacity or decomm

72、issioned volumes in operational capacity.Many countries do not track decommissioning or repowering with any consistency.Repowering is still relatively unusual given the age of the oldest installations,but it is expected to increase in the near future-serial defects with backsheets manufactured in th

73、e period 2009 2011 is a good example,as the past 2 years have seen a few hundred MW replaced.Module capacity that has been used to repower systems with defective or underperforming modules will appear in shipped volumes but not necessarily in new annual installations.Real decommissioning is expected

74、 to be rare,as land usage constraints and cheaper PV on buildings encourages repowering.Recycling numbers can provide a glimpse Primary&trusted secondary source194.12Approximative source-25.86Expert Guess-19.78Total Shipped-284Total installed-2400500300Annual installed capacity(GW)FIGURE

75、3:INSTALLED VS SHIPPED VOLUMES 20221 SOURCE:IEA PVPS Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 13 of what is happening with regards to repowering and decommissioning in countries where recycling schemes are active,however reporting is often in tonnage and the avail

76、ability of data must be improved before it can be used more generally.In the coming years,IEA PVPS will follow the dynamic evolution of decommissioning,repowering and recycling closely,with the expected impact on the installed capacity,market projections for repowering and the decline in PV performa

77、nces due to ageing PV systems.5.2 AC or DC Numbers?By convention,the numbers reported refer to the nominal power of PV systems installed.These are expressed in W(or Wp).Some countries report the power output of the PV inverter(the device converting DC power from the PV system into AC electricity com

78、patible with standard electricity networks)or the grid connection power level.The difference between the standard DC power(in Wp)and the AC power can range from as little as 5%(conversion losses,inverter set at the DC level)to as much as 60%.For instance,some grid regulations limit injections to as

79、low as 70%of the peak power from the residential PV systems installed in the last years.Most utility-scale plants built in 2022 have an AC-DC ratio between 1,1 and 1,6.For some countries,numbers indicated in this report have been transformed to DC numbers to maintain the coherency of the overall rep

80、ort.In general,IEA PVPS recommends registering PV systems with both the DC power and the AC value.DC power allows a reliable calculation of the energy production whilst AC power allows a better understanding of the theoretical maximum power output of the PV fleet.More information about recommendatio

81、ns to properly register PV plants can be found in the Data Model and Data Acquisition report(see link and QR code above).6 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM PV PV generation is easy to measure for an individual system but more complex for an entire country.Electricity self-consumed by prosumers is general

82、ly not metered.Converting installed capacity to electricity is subject to errors-solar irradiation can vary depending on the local climate;weather can differ from year to year.Systems installed in December will have produced only a fraction of their annual electricity output;systems installed on bui

83、ldings may not be at optimum orientation or may have partial shading during the day.PV penetration is based on the theoretical electricity production from PV per country,calculated based on cumulative PV capacity at the end of 2022,close to optimum siting,orientation,and yearly weather conditions.Fi

84、gure 7 shows how PV theoretically contributes to meet the electricity demand in key IEA PVPS countries and others,based on the installed capacity by the end of 2022.Numbers are estimates based on total cumulative capacity at years-end and they may differ from official PV production numbers in some c

85、ountries.They should be considered as indicative,providing a reliable estimation for comparison between countries and do not replace official data.IEA PVPS Task 1 Report:Data Model and Data Acquisition for PV Registration Schemes and Grid Connection Best Practice and Recommendations Available for do

86、wnload here.Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 14 Nine countries now have penetration rates over 10%(up from 7 in 2021):Spain at over 19%,Greece and Chile above 17%and the Netherlands and Australia over 15%.High penetration rates are not reserved for small a

87、re sunny climates,nor for countries with very low consumption as demonstrated by both Germany and India in the top group the increasingly large volumes of installed capacity are making a tangible contribution to electricity consumption around the world.The two principal markets China(6,5%)and Europe

88、(8,8%)demonstrate this.In total,PV contribution amounts to 6,2%of the electricity demand in the world.7 POLICY&MARKETS TRENDS 7.1 Policy Trends The combination of market competitivity,climate action goals and the search for energy sovereignty has led to changes in policy support for photovoltaics in

89、 a number of countries in 2022 often in quite contradictory directions.Some countries(China,Australia)are phasing out support mechanisms for end users(tenders,feed in tariffs,direct and fiscal subsidies)as PV has become competitive,whilst others(Germany,Austria)have stepped up support(new remunerati

90、on bonus for prosumers,6.2%0.2%0.4%0.6%1.0%1.9%2.4%3.4%3.5%4.2%4.4%4.7%4.6%4.7%4.8%5.1%5.2%5.8%5.9%6.5%6.6%7.1%7.3%8.4%8.7%8.7%9.1%9.5%10.2%12.3%12.4%12.9%15.7%15.9%17.0%17.5%19.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%GlobalNorwayFinlandMalaysiaCanadaSwedenSlovakiaThailandCzech RepublicSouth AfricaRomaniaKoreaFranceUKMor

91、occoUSAMexicoBulgariaAustriaChinaTurkeySwitzerlandDenmarkPortugalBelgiumEUItalyIndiaJapanIsraelGermanyHondurasAustraliaNetherlandsChileGreeceSpainFIGURE 7:THEORETICAL PV PENETRATION 2022 Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 15 increased tender capacities)to dr

92、ive further capacity growth to meet climate imperatives.In parallel,many countries have used indirect support mechanisms addressing permitting complexity and costs,facilitated access to electricity markets or grid access policies for prosumers to accelerate PV deployment.The past year has demonstrat

93、ed that despite PV competitivity,national markets remain sensitive to policy,with different segments responding to policy changes as they become effective.This is particularly visible in emerging applications,such as agrivoltaics,floating PV or collective self-consumption and energy communities.In p

94、articular,two major subjects have mobilised policy makers in 2022 grid access policies and support of local manufacturing.Grid access policies have emerged as a limiting factor in an increasing number of countries and markets,as congestion and shifting of cost-burdens slows projects and worries Dist

95、ribution System Operators-DSOs.Support for local manufacturing in the context of PV targets,disrupted supply chains and the high concentration of manufacturing capacity in China has led to some reformative support policies around the world.7.2 Competitive Tenders&Merchant PV Tenders continued to be

96、the main driver of utility scale PV development in 2022,although the increase in electricity prices led to a surge in projects exploring PPA(Power Purchase Agreements or merchant PV)as a financing mechanism in many countries(Europe,Americas).Despite this,many countries continued to run tenders in 20

97、22,although factors such as the attractiveness of market electricity costs or poorly anticipated reserve prices led to lower subscription rates than expected in some countries(Germany,France,Spain).The increase in material and transport costs in 2021 and 2022 may have impacted the viability of some

98、successful candidates,with projects being delayed(Spain)or state organisations considering adjusting remuneration methods(France).The increased market competitivity has led to the termination or gradual phasing out of tenders,for example in Australia,China elsewhere,climate engagements or market imp

99、eratives have led to new or increased volumes to be tendered(Germany,Saudi Arabia).Tenders can be exclusively cost based or integrated multiple factors such as land use,carbon footprint or geographical location.As concerns over the concentration of supply chains in China evolve,some governments have

100、 looked to tender mechanisms to encourage local content,although trade rules make this a complex undertaking.Merchant PV(direct sales on electricity markets or through PPA)is growing steadily as PV developers and owners take advantage of higher electricity prices to avoid the constraints of tenders(

101、timing,restrictive conditions,or insufficient volumes)or as the sole alternative when support mechanisms are phased out.Some countries are experimenting with non-monetary support to encourage the development of market PPAs,such as guarantee funds,virtual PPA frameworks(Malaysia)or tenders for grid a

102、ccess(Spain).7.3 Prosumers Policies Prosumers(entities that are both producers and consumers of energy)are becoming more active market drivers around the world as electricity consumption prices go up and PV penetration rates increase,improving understanding of and access to prosumer policies.Task 1

103、Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 16 Prosumer excess generation is generally paid for through net metering(traditionally in emerging markets),or net billing in more experienced markets with smart or communicating meters.Remuneration rates vary and can be low to di

104、ssuade injections into the grid or on the contrary benefit from feed in tariffs or market premiums.These remuneration rates can be associated with a range of different constraints,from capacity limits to mandatory building integration or carbon footprints.Collective self-consumption where one or sev

105、eral PV producers(even utility-scale plants)supply one or more consumers in the same building or within a small geographical perimeter with reduced use of the public grid-continues to grow,although the wide range of mechanisms used can make it difficult to compare between countries.The use of self-c

106、onsumption in collective buildings is growing(many EU countries),whilst other models such as distributed(or virtual)self-consumption are becoming more common.These models have in common that they allow a higher rate of self-consumption than if only one consumer is associated,and are increasingly see

107、n as a market substitute,allowing small scale generators to sell directly to consumers without having to become commercial operators,an often complex process.In the Clean energy for all Europeans package,the European Union introduced the concept of Renewable Energy Communities(REC)and of Citizen Ene

108、rgy Communities(CEC).REC should allow citizens to sell renewable energy production to their neighbours,while some crucial components are the definition of the perimeter and the tariffication for grid use.Those key components are defined in the national implementation in the member states.This concep

109、t of energy communities is likely to expand existing PV market segments and to allow cost reductions for consumers not able to invest in a solar installation themselves.7.4 Grid Access Policies With increasingly high penetration rates of PV in more and more countries,and some small regions reaching

110、100%RES over several hours or days,transmission and distribution system operators are having to anticipate and more actively manage PV.New policies have been proposed or implemented to manage grid access and cost sharing,from tenders for capacity(Spain)to cut offs of solar exports in case of saturat

111、ion(Australia)or taxes on grid exports(California,Belgium).How the cost burden of managing,reinforcing and renewing grid infrastructure is shared has become one of the more sensitive topics.Increased behind-the-meter generation can reduce revenue collected on consumption,whilst midday exports can co

112、ngest grids and impact grid balancing.As penetration rates increase,new governance models compatible with market and climate policy driven deployment targets will need to be established to ensure PV can be smoothly deployed.7.5 Local Manufacturing Policies The different disruptions of 2021 and 2022(

113、covid,geopolitical tensions around the world and pollution episodes in China)have highlighted the fragility of the PV value chain,at a time when governments are looking to increase generation from PV.Supporting local manufacturing at various steps of the PV value chain has become important in differ

114、ent regions,pushing numerous governments to support local manufacturing through policies,subsidies and regulation notable examples include the USAs Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 17 While trade conflicts have diminished in in

115、tensity in the last years,the willingness to support local production has increased with initiatives in Europe,the USA,India,Morocco or Saudi Arabia.This reflects the growing perception of the importance that PV could take in the coming years and the willingness to secure strategic production in som

116、e countries.This trend is increasing globally,often without a clear understanding of the industry dynamics and the complexities of PV manufacturing,which will lead to less real projects than what some governments would like to see.Materials supply for the PV manufacturing industry is growing as a pe

117、rcentage of total material consumption,and precautions must be taken when analysing the impact growth in PV manufacturing could have on global supply chains and other industries.8 PV IN THE BROADER ENERGY TRANSITION 8.1 PV and Other Renewable Energy Evolutions PV is playing a major role the energy t

118、ransition and in 2022 represented two thirds of all new renewable electricity technologies,thanks to its consistent costs,technical performance and accessibility,and generally faster permitting procedures than wind or hydro.As installed volumes increases,so does workforce competency and investor con

119、fidence,allowing solar to be adopted as a safe,mature technology investment.With the hindsight of the past three years,clearly solar is now a mainstream energy source.Sources:compilation of IEA PVPS,BNEF,GWEC,IRENA and estimations for 2022 In 2022,solar PV generated approximately 50%of the total ren

120、ewable electricity production from new production assets despite being two thirds of new capacity.The difference between capacity and generation is due to the different capacity factors of renewable technologies.Whereas biomass installations can virtually produce all day and all year-round,wind and

121、PV installations outputs strongly depend on the available resources that can vary locally.050030035040020000022GWpFIGURE 8:EVOLUTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ANNUAL INSTALLATIONSWindPVHydroOther renewables(non hydro)Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and O

122、utreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 18 Sources:IEA PVPS,BNEF,GWEC and estimations for 2022 8.2 Impact of PV Development on CO2 Emissions Global energy related CO2eq emissions increased to 36 800 Mt in 20224,just 0,9%more than 2021,much lower than expected considering the shift from gas to coa

123、l in some countries.The total emissions of the electricity and heat sector reached 14 600 Mt of CO2eq in 2022,an all-time high.5 PV played an important role in the reduction of the CO2 emissions from electricity in 2022,avoiding approximately 1 399 Mt of annual CO2 emissions,up 30%from 2021.This is

124、calculated as the emissions that would have been generated from the same amount of electricity produced by the different grid mixes in all countries and taking into consideration life cycle emissions of PV systems.This amount of avoided CO2 emissions represents around 10%of the total electricity and

125、 heat sector emissions(+3%from 2021)and 4%of all energy emissions.4 IEA,Global Energy Review:CO2 Emissions in 2022,March 2023(https:/www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022)5 IEA,Global Energy Review:CO2 Emissions in 2022,March 2023(https:/www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022)FIGURE 9:ELECTRI

126、CITY PRODUCTION OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGYCAPACITY INSTALLED IN 2022Wind offshoreWind onshorePVHydro Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 19 8.3 PV Fostering Development of a Cleaner Energy System PV provides direct and immediate carbon emission economies as it r

127、eplaces or displaces fossil fuel generation.Anticipating large amounts of cost competitive green electricity from PV soon,an increasing number of research,pre-industrial and commercial investments are being made to leverage the future electricity production for hydrogen or other molecules such as am

128、monia,methanol,toluene or similar,seen by many as technologies with a potential to tackle climate change.The electrification of transport is accelerating in many countries and whilst the link between PV development and EVs is not yet fully understood,the growth of self-consumption policies and grid

129、congestion limiting injections are factors to be considered.Charging EVs during peak load implies rethinking power generation,grid management and smart metering,and concepts such as virtual self-consumption could rapidly provide a framework for EVs as mobile storage for excess PV generation.With 10,

130、5 million EVs sold in 2022(+60%on 2021),the growth curve of EV sales crossed that of PV this year,demonstrating an accelerated development beyond that of PV.Source:IEA PVPS&EV Volumes 02468502002503003504004505002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022EV sales(millions)PV installation(GW)FIGURE 10:EVOLUTION OF EV AND PV ANNUAL GROWTH PV installation(GW)EV sales(millions)Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 20