1、REPORTMarket OutlookConquering Peaks2023RomaniaREAL ESTATECBRE RESEARCH2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaContentsINDUSTRIALAt the end of 2022,Romanias industrial stock gathers 6.59 mln.sq m of modern spaces,as a record amount of new supply of 895,000

2、 sq m were added throughout the year.04MACROECONOMICS2022 marks the second consecutive year of positive growth for Romanias economy following the global reset experienced in 2020.01RETAILSeventeen new entries opened stores in Romania throughout 2022.The continuous addition of modern products to the

3、countrys retail stock and the well-known Romanian spending habit encouraged new companies from various industries to expand or enter the local market.05INVESTMENT2022 will be remembered as an exceptional year for the Romanian investment market,as the total investment volume exceeded the historical m

4、ilestone of EUR 1.0 bln.by more than 25%.02LANDMore than 220 hectares of development land were transacted throughout Romania during 2022.In terms of future use and what buyers plan to develop on their newly acquired plots,the development sites with industrial potential were the most accounted for 41

5、%of the overall transacted surface.06OFFICEThe total leasing activity in 2022 involved 295,300 sq m.The upward trend of transactional activity indicates a steady recovery of the leasing market and working at the office gaining a larger share in the hybrid working schedule.03MacroeconomicsBlazing New

6、 Trails4CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|Romania2022 marks the second consecutive year of positive growth for Romanias economy following the global reset experienced in 2020.The much-needed jumpstart recorded during the previous year,resulting in a V-shaped

7、 trend line for Romanias YoY evolution,created the momentum for a second year with economic growth.With an estimated 4.3%annual increase overall 2022,the countrys GDP managed to keep an upward trend despite arising challenges.Projections indicate a steady course of evolution with yearly growths of 2

8、.0%in 2023 and 3.0%in 2024.When compared with the Eurozone,if in 2021 the GDP YoY growth was similar,forecasts for 2022 2024 period,indicate for Romania higher annual increases up to 2.1 pps(2.0%vs.-0.1%estimated for 2023).5CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|

9、RomaniaSource:Oxford Economics,CBRE ResearchFigure 1:GDP(real)&Government balance(share of GDP)EvolutionThe optimistic outlook maintained as well regarding Romanias fiscal deficit which spiked in 2020 as a result of governments support during the pandemic.Showing signs of contraction since last year

10、,the budget deficit is forecasted to decrease even further from an estimated-4.7%in 2022 to-3.5%in 2024.-4.7%in 2022 The budget deficit is forecasted to decrease-3.5%in 2024-12.0%-9.0%-6.0%-3.0%0.0%3.0%6.0%9.0%200202021F 2022F 2023F 2024YoY growthRomania GDP real,annual growthEurozone GDP

11、 real,annual growthRomania Government balance,share of GDPEurozone Government balance,share of GDP6CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaimageSource:Oxford Economics,CBRE ResearchFigure 2:Unemployment Rate EvolutionPermanently below the Euro area average

12、considering the analysed time frame,Romanias unemployment rate is set to constantly decrease on the short term.If for 2022 the unemployment rate is estimated at 5.4%,with 1.3 pps lower compared with the rate for Eurozone,for 2024 the prognosis indicates a compression down to 4.8%for Romania,value th

13、at sends further apart the comparison with the Euro region which is expected to register an unemployment rate of 7.1%in two years.0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%200202021F 2022F 2023F 2024RomaniaEurozone7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:Oxf

14、ord Economics,CBRE ResearchFigure 3:Consumer Price Index&Private Consumption EvolutionPrivate consumption in Romania maintains the ascendent trend,for 2022 being forecasted an YoY increase of 6.2%,percentage similar with the one registered for the previous year.Based on the short-term preview of thi

15、s indicator,annual growths are forecasted for both 2023 and 2024 but at a slower pace compared with 2022.With 2.7%in 2023 and 3.5%in 2024,the yearly increases of private consumption indicate a more cautious approach for buyers mainly determined by increased commodity prices.The ongoing inflationary

16、pressures contributed to the National Bank of Romania decision to increase further the monetary policy rate up to 6.75%from 6.25%.Nonetheless,the discrepancies between the core inflation and the banks prognosis,the key policy rate might face increases right from the beginning of 2023.For 2022,CPI in

17、flation estimated for Romania reached at the highest peak in the analysed period,respectively at 13.8%,with 8.7 pps higher compared with the rate registered in 2021.The continuous prices increase of processed food and electricity contributed as well at the notable rise of the projected annual CPI in

18、flation.Nonetheless,the short-term forecast reveal a decreasing tendency,down to 6.3%in 2024.3.5%in 2024 Annual growths are forecasted further,but at a slower pace compared to 20222.7%in 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%200202021F 2022F 2023F 2024YoY GrowthRomania CPIEurozone CPIRomania Private Consu

19、mptionEurozone Private Consumption8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaIn 2022 Romania received EUR 6.3 bln.,consisting in the payment made by the European Commission in October 2022 of EUR 2.6 bln.related to the first request submitted by Romania.The p

20、ositive sentiment that the country is set on a direction towards economic revival,reflected in the forecasts for indicators such as GDP annual growth,Unemployment rate,Government balance(share of GDP)are backed as well by the ongoing National Recovery and Resilience Plan(PNRR).By the end of 2022 Rom

21、ania received EUR 6.3 bln.,consisting in the payment made by the European Commission in October 2022 of EUR 2.6 bln.related to the first request submitted by Romania,and two pre-financing tranches amounting EUR 3.7 bln.In the last month of the year,Romania submitted the request for second payment of

22、 circa EUR 3.2 bln.and what is noteworthy is that the submission was conditioned by the fulfilment of 51 targets through which are regulated key aspects such as decarbonisation,database interoperability for bureaucracy reduction and governmental cloud.2022 kept the momentum going in terms of economi

23、c growth.Inflicted by the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators such GDP,Private Consumption,Unemployment Rate as well as by the governments plans and actions,the feeling of recovery and further economic growths takes a stronger shape.Daniela GavrilHead of Research,CBRE RomaniaInvestmentScaling New

24、Heights11CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 4:Investment Volume Evolution2022 will be remembered as an exceptional year for the Romanian investment market,as the total investment volume exceeded the historical milestone of EU

25、R 1.0 bln.by more than 25%.The 2022 investment sum in quantum of EUR 1.25 bln.is 36%higher compared with the volume registered for the previous year and 25%higher when analysed against the last pre-pandemic year.Bucharest proved again to be the most liquid real estate market for Romania.Generating a

26、lmost three quarters(respectively 69%)fromthe years total investment volume,the capital city upholds its leading position on the investors radars.Throughout the year,twenty-one deals were closed for properties located in the capital,having an average ticket size of EUR 41.1 mln.,a value which surpas

27、ses last years average by 8%.Regional,secondary and tertiary cities such as Cluj-Napoca,Oradea,Arad,Pitesti and Ploiesti contributed at the investment volume with fifteen transactions with and average deal size of EUR 25.7 mln.In 2022 the Romanian investment market reached the historical milestone o

28、f EUR 1.25 bln,which is 36%higher compared with the volume registered for the previous year.0200,000,000400,000,000600,000,000800,000,0001,000,000,0001,200,000,0001,400,000,0002002020212022EURRomaniaBucharest12CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|Rom

29、aniaNonetheless,what contributed at the years investment performance was the largest office transaction signed in Romania.The Austrians from CA Immo sold their office portfolio consisting of seven office buildings located in Bucharest with a combined gross leasable area of circa 165,000 sq m to the

30、Romanians from Paval Holding.The deal with an estimated net price of EUR 377 mln.,marks not only a record deal for a Romanian investor but a record for the countrys investment market.13CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 5:Inv

31、estment Volume By Sector EvolutionMore than half,meaning 62%of the investment volume was claimed by office sector,almost a quarter(24%)by retail and 7%by industrial segments.Hotel and assets from other sectors managed to jointly attract 7%of the total invested amount.For five consecutive years maint

32、aining the leading position in the investment volume split by sector,the office segment recorded the most liquid properties.Figure 6:2022 Investment Volume By SectorHowever,alternating between the second and third place in the same analysed period,retail and industrial sectors are sought after by bo

33、th local and foreign investors.Retail with a special focus on retail parks and industrial premises became more attractive for investors looking to place their money in Romania once the 2020 health crisis shifted the light towards this type of developments.0200,000,000400,000,000600,000,000800,000,00

34、01,000,000,0001,200,000,0001,400,000,0002002020212022EUROfficeRetailIndustrialHotelMixed-UseOtherResidential62%24%7%4%3%OfficeRetailIndustrialHotelOthers14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaThe biggest contribution to 2022 investment volume,

35、the local investors contribute to Romania investment market grow into a more mature environment,that can be aligned with performant countries within CEE region.Source:CBRE ResearchFigure 7:2022 Investment Volume By Source Of Capital Romanian investors claim half of the years total investment volume,

36、followed but at considerable distances by South Africans with a percentage of 15%and Austrians with 10%.With shares below 10%,investors from Belgium,UK,Hungary and Malta,cumulatively brought their capital for a quarter from the total volume.By investing their capital in real estate assets throughout

37、 the country,local players embedded a sentiment of stability on the medium and long term in the Romanian investment market.With sixteen deals with an average ticket size of EUR 38.7 mln.,and the biggest contribution to 2022 investment volume,the local investors contribute to Romania investment marke

38、t grow into a more mature environment,that can be aligned with performant countries within CEE region.16 Large transactions in 202238.7MAverage ticket size in 202250%15%10%9%4%4%4%4%RomaniaSouth AfricaAustriaBelgiumUKHungaryMaltaOthers2022 can fairly be named an exceptional year for Romania investme

39、nt market,as the total investment volume not only exceeded the EUR 1.0 bln.milestone but made a quarter from the second bln.EUR.When it comes to market liquidity,investors capital route indicates the preference for one location and one type of assets,respectively Bucharest and Office developments.Mi

40、hai PtrulescuHead of Investment Properties,CBRE RomaniaOfficeNew Horizons17CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 8:Modern Office Stock Evolution(New Supply I Vacancy)Bucharest office modern stock gathers at the end of 2022 circa

41、 3.3 mln.sq m,as six office buildings with a total gross leasable area(GLA)of 124,400 sq m were inaugurated throughout the year.Four of the new delivered projects,representing 79%of the years new supply were delivered in the first half of the year,a period that capitalized on the momentum created at

42、 2021 closing.Modern stock composition is changing,and its breakdown wont be exclusively between class A and B,but if green certified or not.With 74%of its office stock already green certified,Bucharest can accommodate companies compliant with ESG regulations,these certifications becoming an importa

43、nt requirement on the must have list.74%Of Bucharests office buildings are already green certified and compliant with ESG regulations 3.3 MBucharest office modern stock by the end of 2022sq m0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0

44、002002020212022SQ MModern Office Stock New Supply(sq m)Vacancy Rate(%)18CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaCenter West sub-market received the largest share from the annual new supply,which translates in a share of 45%consisting of two proje

45、cts:AFI Tech Park 2 with a GLA of 24,500 sq m developed by AFI EuropeSema Park II-Oslo&London office building of 31,500 leasable sq m developed by River DevelopmentWith almost a quarter of the new deliveries,the Center sub-market welcomed:the 21,000 leasable sq m Tandem building,a Forte Partners dev

46、elopmentHagags 7,000 leasable sq m Tudor ArgheziprojectThe North West and Floreasca/BarbuVacarescu office areas marked each a new addition to the modern stock,respectively:the first phase gathering a GLA of 21,000 sq m of Expo developed by Atenor Groupbuilding B having 19,400 leasable sq m of Equili

47、brium project developed by Skanska.ExpoEquilibrium(building B)Tandem buildingTudor ArgheziprojectAFI Tech Park 2Sema Park II(Oslo&London)19CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|Romania31%38%32%Center-WestCenterNorth-WestSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 9:Pipeline Dist

48、ribution By Office Sub-market(U/C 2023)The forecasted new supply to be delivered by the end of 2023 gathers 112,500 sq m in five buildings,amount that will increase Bucharests modern to stock to 3.4 mln.sq m.With no remarkable differences between the areas to be inaugurated,the Center,North West and

49、 Center West office sub-markets will split the future new supply.Representing 38%from the total area,Center area will benefit of the delivery of the second phase of U-Center Campus which will have 35,000 sq m GLA developed by Forte Partners and the new project developed by Strabag,namely Arghezi 4 w

50、ith 7,500 leasable sq m.The North West sub-market will welcome two new buildings also,one being represented by the second phase with 28,600 sq m of Expo developed by Atenor Group and Muse a 7,000 sq m project owned by Primavera Development.As concerns the Center West sub-market,it is expected to rec

51、eive the second phase of One Uniteds project One Cotroceni with an estimated 34,500 sq m GLA.5New buildings to be delivered by end of 2023112,500New supply forecasted this year in Bucharestsq m20CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE Research*N

52、et Absorption:changes in occupied stockFigure 10:New Supply Vs Demand&Vacancy Rate EvolutionThe total leasing activity(TLA)in 2022 involved 295,300 sq m,with 5%more than the value recorded for the previous year and with a bit over 20%compared with 2020.60%of the TLA was represented by take-up(total

53、transactions excluding renewal/renegotiation)and in absolute figures recorded a 9%YoY increase.The upward trend on which transactional activity embarked in the post-pandemic era,indicates a steady recovery of the leasing market and working at the office gaining a larger share in the hybrid working s

54、chedule.From the annual take-up,14%of the leased area was directed towards pre-lease type of deals,percentage that points towards markets capability to immediately absorb the new demand.Moreover,the largest deal of the year was a pre-lease of 10,500 sq m secured in the second phase of One Cotroceni.

55、The auspicious year for the leasing activity contoured since its first quarter,when Booking Holdings,a new company on the Romanian market,leased 9,000 sq m in U-Center Campus phase 1 developed by Forte Partners.Renewal/renegotiation transactions amounted 117,700 sq m,amount quite similar with the on

56、e registered in 2021.Amongst the largest transactions of the year,there could be find two Computers&Hi-Tech companies that chose to renew their contractual terms.295,300Total leasing activity(TLA)in 2022sq m10,500The largest deal of the year,secured in the second phase of One Cotroceni.sq m60%of the

57、 TLA was represented by take-up 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,0002002020212022SQ MTake-up(sq m)New Supply(sq m)Net Absorption(sq m)*Vacancy Rate(%)21CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outloo

58、k 2023|RomaniaAs the forecast at the end of 2021 envisioned,2022 proved to be a mature year in terms of consolidated strategies that balance employees safety,hybrid work options with office disruption proof planning.Nowadays,the hybrid workplace is a work in progress out of which employers must make

59、 the most of in order to ensure a successful return to the office,designing an inclusive concept.We know for sure that the office is the place for interaction between employees and team working but what about the employees that thrived working remotely.These fine intertwines are the unknowns that th

60、e new workplace must address to build communities in the most human centered way.22CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 11:2022 Total Leasing Activity By Sub-marketLeasing deals were signed throughout all eleven office sub-mark

61、ets in 2022,but the Center West area managed to attract over a quarter from total TLA.Closely followed by Center and Floreasca/Barbu Vacarescu with shares of 21%and 20%,the three sub-markets were the most sought after in Bucharest and managed to jointly close no more than 70%from the total area subj

62、ect to lease throughout the year.Figure 12:2022 Total Leasing Activity By Domain of ActivityComputers&Hi-Tech sector dominates once again the transactional activity,being responsible for 43%of the leased area.Placing on the second and third places as main sources of demand for office areas,Consumer

63、Services&Leisure and Professional sectors together managed to secure leases for almost the same total area as generated by companies from Computers&Hi-Tech domain.28%21%20%11%20%Center-WestCenterFloreasca/Barbu VacarescuCBDOthers43%Computers&Hi-Tech14%Consumer Services&Leisure10%Professional Sector3

64、3%Others23CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 13:Main Indicators By Sub-market(Modern Stock|Headline Rent)At years closing,Bucharest modern office stock recorded an overall vacancy rate of 14.1%,with 1.0 pps higher compared wi

65、th the vacancy from the end of 2021.When looking exclusively at class A office premises,the vacancy rate is decreasing down to 12.3%.Nonetheless,if the sub-lease availabilities should be considered,the option of spaces to rent increases considerably.The trend that amplified in the post-pandemic era

66、offers a quick fix for tenants in need for a space limited within the contractual term prior agreed by sublessor.At Q4 closing,prime rent reached at EUR 19.50 sq m/month,after a subsequent growth of EUR 0.25 sq m/month registered in the first quarter of the year.Looking retrospectively,the change in

67、 prime rent from Q1 2022 was the first movement registered since the first quarter of 2020,the in between period marking a stagnation at EUR 18.75 sq m/month.Such evolution may come as a response to the overall economic environment,with office owners addressing somehow the increased operational cost

68、s and rising inflation,coupled with the limited office new supply in Bucharest on short-term.Even so,landlords maintain their flexibility when negotiating a lease,offering incentives that can lower the net effective rent.57910100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000CBDCenterCente

69、r-WestFloreasca/BVDimitrie PompeiuPipera NorthNorth-WestBaneasa-OtopeniEastWestSouthEUR/SQ M/MONTHSQ MNon-Green StockGreen StockHeadline RentWe are witnesses of modern office market shaping.The modern stock it isnt any more about solely class A&B,but green versus non-green office projects.With compa

70、nies necessities to comply with ESG regulations and at the same time to create an inclusive office concept,working from the office nowadays fundamentally transformed the workplace,with human centreddesign dedicated to build communities,that ultimately could be chosen over working from home.Tudor Ion

71、escuHead of A&T Services Office,CBRE RomaniaIndustrialNew Benchmarks Achieved26CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 14:Romania Modern Industrial Stock EvolutionAt the end of 2022,Romanias industrial stock gathers 6.59 mln.sq m

72、of modern spaces,as circa 895,000 sq m were added throughout the year.With half of the total new deliveries,Bucharest region continues its development and maintains singularity compared with the other four industrial development regions,which together welcomed the other half of the yearly new supply

73、.6.59 MRomanias industrial stock of modern spaces by the end of 2022sq m895,000Of industrial space was delivered last yearsq m49%Of the total new supply was added in Bucharest -500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,00001,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007

74、,000,0002002020212022BUCH(SQ M)RO(SQ M)RomaniaBucharest27CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 15:2022 Romania ModernStock By RegionThis equity between shares of new supply,broke a consecutiveness of two years when th

75、e capital city usually claimed more than half,meaning 60%in 2021 and 68%in 2020 of the new deliveries.The fifty-fifty share split of new spaces between the capital city and the other industrial regions within the country,can be transposed to the entire modern stock,where Bucharest is the countrys ma

76、in logistic region,with 49%of the total area.Bucharest49%South15%Central10%West/North West24%East/North East2%28CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 16:Romania Industrial Stock EvolutionMoreover,the impressive amount of the 202

77、2 new supply,showing a 54%YoY increase and marking a new peak in terms of new deliveries,indicates not only the prosperous trend inflicted by 2020 events,but developers willingness to expand and develop new hubs throughout the country.The years record can be attributed to both local and internationa

78、lly established industrial developers active in the Romanian market.A further split can be performed for Bucharests stock which at the end of 2022 gathers 3.26 mln.sq m of modern spaces.Here,the most developed logistics area can be found within the axes described by the cardinal points North and Wes

79、t,this part of the city gathering 85%of the annual new supply,the remaining share of 15%being distributed to East and South areas,with percentages of 11%respectively 4%.The steady yearly new supply in the last six years,with new spaces per year amounting to more than half a million sq m,with two exc

80、eptions in the analysed period(in 2017 and 2019),led to afast-tracked growth of the countrys modern stock,the total amounted delivered in the 20172022 time frame representing 56%of Romanias stock.As concerns the territorial fragmentation of the yearly new supply,besides the half claimed by the capit

81、al city,the other half was disputed by the West/North West region,which managed to attract a share of 32%from the total area,followed by South,Central and East/North Eastregions with shares of 9%,6%and 3%of the new deliveries.Figure 17:2022 Romania New SupplyFigure 18:2022 Bucharest New Supply01,000

82、,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0002002020212022SQ MModern Industrial StockNew Supply50%32%9%6%3%BucharestWest/North WestSouthCentralEast/North East37%35%13%11%4%NorthNorth WestWestEastSouth29CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 202

83、3|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 19:Romania Modern Industrial Pipeline By Region(U/C to be delivered by end of 2023)In an attempt to minimize distribution chain disruptions for their tenants,industrial developers who choose to create logistics hubs in areas with underdeveloped infrastructure,mana

84、ged to set an alternative way of cargo management(air/sea/railroad).In addition,changes in modern stock and leasing activity bring into the spotlight tenants behavior throughout the year when sale and lease back transactions were concluded,as well as leases concerning nearshoring,consolidation,and s

85、torage areas in accordance with new volumes requested by the market.With an estimated delivery date by the end of 2023,circa 550,000 sq m are expected to be added to the countrys logistics stock,considering the under-construction projects monitored at Q4 2022 closing.Following the trend established

86、in the last six years,the future new supply estimated for 2023 will surpass the half million leasable sq m threshold and will push Romanias modern stock over 7.0 mln.sq m.Nonetheless,when designing future projects,one important aspect that developers should not disregard is the ESG standards complia

87、nce.This has become a necessity nowadays,marking the competitiveness of a new project as well amongst potential tenants.The two most developed industrial regions within the country,Bucharest and West/North Westregions,will further attract the largest share of the future new supply,jointly benefiting

88、 of 68%from the under-construction area.What comes as an encouraging sign as the 2023 forecast unfolds is that the East/North East region places the third with 18%from the future deliveries surface.Once overlooked by investors mostly due to underdeveloped infrastructure in the area,the East/North Ea

89、st part of the country,managed to attract local investors willing to create the foundation of the industrial modern stock in the area,with developments that can further attract and encourage both public authorities and logistics players to invest in this region.Having below 10%share per region,Centr

90、al and South markets will jointly host 14%of the area to be delivered by the 2023 closing.When designing future projects,one important aspect that developers should not disregard is the ESG standards compliance.This has become a necessity nowadays,marking the competitiveness of a new project as well

91、 amongst potential tenants.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%SouthCentralEast/North EastWest/North WestBucharest30CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaAt the end of 2022,the vacancy rate of Romanias industrial modern stock stands at 4.5%,while the vacancy rate

92、 for Bucharest is 5.8%.The marginal YoY growth in the overall vacancy rate of 0.6 pps reflects the moderns stock capacity to absorb the increasing demand for logistics spaces with yearly record values,as well as developers willingness to deliver larger shares of speculative spaces.Headline rent in l

93、ogistic parks registered an increase of EUR 0.2 sq m/month compared with the value from the previous years end,reaching EUR 4.10 sq m/month,while the net effective rent is EUR 3.70 sq m/month for a 5,000 sq m standard unit.The 5%annual growth marks the first changes in rent from the end of 2020 and

94、can be correlated with the general economic context as well as with logistics demand,availabilities,and construction costs.4.5%Vacancy rate of Romanias industrial modern stock in 20224.10Headline rent in logistic parks in 2022sq m/month31CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market

95、 Outlook 2023|RomaniaSumming 1.11 mln.sq m,the industrial transactional activity for the first time overpassed the 1.0 mln.threshold and it is with 31%higher compared with the amount concluded in 2021 and with 21%higher when comparing with 2020 which now became the second-best year in terms of leasi

96、ng activity and new supply.With seven transactions ranging between 88,000 sq m and 20,000 sq m,the average deal size in 2022 stands around 5,800 sq m,with a value of 8%higher than last years average.“RECORD”A single word can describe the industrial total leasing activity(TLA)for 2022,the best year e

97、ver recorded for logistics players.32CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 20:Romania Total Leasing Activity EvolutionTake-up(total transactions excluding renewal/renegotiation)claimed 83%of the total leased surface throughout t

98、he year.Also known as new demand,the overwhelming majority held within the 2022 TLA,the outstanding amount of let area falling in take-up category,is a vivid sign of market players in need for a new or larger leased space.The YoY evolution reveals an increase in take-up,with 50%compared to last year

99、 and 28%compared with the reference year 2020.1,11 MRecord industrial transactional activity in Romania reached in 2022sq mseventransactions ranging between 88,000 sq m and 20,000 sq m5,800average deal size in 2022 with a value of 8%higher than last years averagesq m0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,00

100、0,0001,200,0002002020212022SQ MTake-upRenewal/Renegotiation33CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaThe vibrant leasing activity could be felt in all five industrial regions,but even so,Bucharest remains the largest demand generator with 61%from

101、 TLA.Much behind,the second most active market was registered in the Southern region which attracted 19%of the total leased area,followed by West/North West with 11%,Central and East/North Eastregions with 5%,respectively 4%.Demand distribution within the capital city points again towards tenants pr

102、eference for the Western part,representing more than 60%of Bucharest TLA.As concerns,the main purpose to rent an industrial space,almost half of the area was requested for Logistics purposes,while the other half being disputed amongst Storage,Production,and Other purposes.As per tenants domain of ac

103、tivity,retailers and logistics players dominate the transactional activity.As a ripple effect of 2020 supply shortages experienced by retailers,the 2022 TLA noted large areas leased by retailers,especially from F&B and fashion industries,which secured spaces in order easier accommodate requests from

104、 their local and regional buyers.Romania industrial and logistics market just completed a thriving year,one of a kind on its evolutionary path.With new benchmarks achieved in terms of leasing activity and new supply,new thresholds are expected to be crossed this year as well,when Romanias modern sto

105、ck is expected to exceed 7.0 mln.sq m.One aspect that shouldnt be disregarded by market players in a fierce competition,is the green certification which now can be an ace in the sleeve,alongside future infrastructure developments.Victor RchitHead of Industrial&Logistics,CBRE RomaniaRetailScaling-up

106、To Next Level36CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaModern retail stock in Romania,gathers at the end of 2022 circa 4.08 mln.sq m,as eleven new retail parks were inaugurated throughout the year.The annual deliveries amount 86,700 leasable sq m,from which

107、 Bucharest attracted 41%with three newly built retail schemes,while the great majority being developed in tertiary cities but strategically placed near the counties capitals such as Iasi,Timisoara,or Craiova.4.08 MModern retail stock in Romania reached in 2022sq m86,700The annual retail deliveries i

108、n 2022sq m37CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaWith an overall share of 38%of the total stock surface,retail parks gain both larger nationwide coverage and popularity amongst retail developers.Source:CBRE Research,Oxford EconomicsFigure 21:Modern Retai

109、l StockRetail Park developments dominate the years new supply,claiming 81%of the total area,the impressive amount contributing to the countrys modern stock change in composition.With an overall share of 38%of the total stock surface,this format will continue to grow given the development of smaller

110、size cities which cannot accommodate a shopping center.Bucharest is home to more than a quarter of the countrys modern stock,at 2022 closing accounting circa 1.23 mln.sq m,with area split 63%in shopping centers and 37%in retail parks.0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,00

111、0,0004,500,0002002020212022SQ MRegional CitiesBucharest38CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 22:Romania Retail Stock By Format&By LocationThroughout 2023 another 265,000 sq m are expected to be added to the countrys

112、 modern stock considering the under-construction and planned projects with an estimated delivery date by the end of the year.More than three quarters of the future new supply is developed as a retail park format,out of which the overwhelming majority of 93%will be welcomed in secondary and tertiary

113、cities.Even if the capital city hosts enough space for retailers to grow,the advance of retail schemes in Bucharest seems to embark on a slower pace,as regional cities attract local and internationally known investors.The closeness to end users and the untapped territories by established retailers r

114、eveal small-sized towns throughout the country as the new places to pinpoint on their expansion map.265,000New supply expected to be delivered in 2023sq m93%Of the retail parks will be developed in secondary and tertiary cities 75%More than of the future new supply is developed as a retail park form

115、at30%63%37%70%62%38%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,000Modern StockShopping CenterRetail ParkSQ MBucharestRegional Cities39CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaThe continuous addition of modern products to the

116、 countrys retail stock and the well-known Romanian spending habit encouraged new companies from various industries to expand or enter the local market.Seventeen newcomers opened stores in 2022,and most of them chose Bucharest as the first location in the country.For instance,retailers from fashion a

117、nd sport industry such as Primark,Converse,JD Sports or Foot Locker inaugurated their stores in shopping centres,Health&Beauty like Bath&Body Works and Equivalenza,entertainment like Cyber Jump while F&B players such as Popeyes,Poke House,and Submarine Burger selected either shopping centers,high-st

118、reet or within mixed-use projects spaces.The variety of picked places by newcomers to mark their entrance is a powerful statement that shows how competitive Romania is within the CEE region in terms of variety of products and private consumption.Towards years end,the overall vacancy rate in retail s

119、chemes maintained a very low level,with tenants making a clear distinction between prime and non-prime locations.As the footfall is starting to pick up,another reassuring signal for retailers that the market is on an upward trend are the high level of sales for specific shopping centers and retailer

120、s,amount overpassing the level marked in 2019 a reference year for retail market.very low levelfor overall vacancy rate in retail schemes40CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaA retail component that returned to the spotlight is the high street,a comebac

121、k mainly triggered by the pandemic outburst,which managed to maintain and further attract both tenants and clients throughout the year.Started as a helping hand for retailers,transforming pedestrian areas at weeks end within the city,established high street locations such as Victoriei Avenue in Buch

122、arest became a weekend destination.With the possibility to choose amongst multiple restaurants,bars,coffee,and ice-cream shops,and several clothing and accessories stores,it seems that retailers from F&B industry are the first to gain from this revival,while players from the Fashion sector either wa

123、it for this type of retail to gain more popularity amongst the local buyers or search for the best location for their products.41CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaAt the end of 2022,prime rents maintained at the same level from the end of the previous

124、 year for high street locations,respectively at 45 EUR/sq m/month,while shopping centers witnessed an increase of 5.0 EUR/sq m/month,from 70 to 75 EUR/sq m/month.Source:CBRE ResearchFigure 23:Modern Retail Stock Evolution|Romania(Forecast)Forecasted to reach 4.35 mln.sq m by the end of 2023,consider

125、ing the underconstruction and planned projects,Romanias modern stock is set for an accelerated growth,with retail players resuming development plans adapted to current market requirements and as close as possible to their customers.With a share of 78%of the future new supply,the specialized format o

126、f retail parks is the type of brick-and-mortar on which retailers agreed to mainly expand the modern stock,marking a resilient and adaptive evolutionary stepfor the market.The in-store brand experience is something that was longed for in recent years,and even though e-commerce gains new users,the co

127、mfort of being advised and see,try and buy on the spot a product are the things that will keep traditional retail in the investors real estate race.Even if summing advantages such as higher products variety and offers,the e-commerce slowed down its growth in 2022,being estimated a 10%YoY increase of

128、 the total amount transacted.Nonetheless,remaining on the traditional side of retail,developers must address the latest requirements of the tenants with direct reverberation on the quality of users experience.ESG compliance can not be named a novelty in this sector as more and more investors and dev

129、elopers make continuous efforts in reducing carbon footprint and remain in the same time competitive on the market.0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0005,000,0002002020212022F2023SQ MModern Retail StockNew SupplyThe bricks in brick-and-mortar ret

130、ail projects seems to have rearranged.Clearly distinguishing between prime and non-prime locations,2022 meant for specific shopping centers and retailers a rise of sales,towards levels overpassing the results registered in 2019 a reference year for retail players.The powerful sign sent by market pla

131、yers comes from the seventeen newcomers which testify Romanias competitiveness amongst CEE region in terms of variety of products and private consumption.Carmen RavonHead of Retail Occupier CEE,CBRE RomaniaLandChanging The Perspective44CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market O

132、utlook 2023|RomaniaThe total transacted plots in Romania summed more than 220 hectares during last year,split between Bucharest with its proximity(48%)and secondary and tertiary regional cities(52%).Source:CBRE ResearchFigure 24:Total Land Transactions(sq m)by Type of UseMore than 220 hectares of de

133、velopment land were transacted throughout Romania during 2022.Almost half of the total area is located in Bucharest and its proximity,part of Ilfov County,while 52%of the sold land plots can be found within secondary and tertiary regional cities such as but not limited to Oradea,Timisoara,Iasi,Const

134、anta,Sibiu and Targu Mures.In terms of future use and what buyers plan to develop on their newly acquired plots,the development sites withindustrial potential were the most accounted for 41%of the overall transacted surface.At a considerable distance but with a bit over a quarter from the total area

135、,land plots suitable for residential developments were the next in line as the most desirable assets,followed by land plots suitable for mixed-use developments with a share of 23%.The remaining 8%was distributed towards sites for future retail,office,hotel and other types of projects.41%Industrial28

136、%Residential23%Mixed-use6%Retail2%Others45CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaThe largest transaction in 2022 was concluded in a regional city and is represented by the acquisition of circa 27 hectares of land by Oradea City Hall.The public authority in

137、tends to expand the Industrial Park IV and to further attract investments within the project.Nonetheless,notable transactions were made in Bucharest as well,as 24 hectares of land,part of the former Chimoparplatform,located in the Eastern part of the city was purchased by the local company Edificia

138、Star Construct.For this particular site the buyers envisioned a large future residential project.24 haWere acquired in Bucharest by Edificia Star Construct for a future residential project.27 haThe largest land acquisition made in 2022 by Oradea City Hall for industrial development.46CBRE RESEARCH 2

139、023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaThe buyers requests and signed agreements over the year,contoured the real estate market trends for each development sector,offering the possibility to forecast future developments and trends.Thus,looking at the office market,there

140、are several projects in stand-by,developers usually expecting to secure a large pre-lease in order to deliver the building.Moreover,since the public authorities did not manage to solve the zonal urbanistic plan(PUZ)issue in Bucharest,a shortage in office new supply already can be observed.This block

141、age coupled with tenants preference to integrate the hybrid working schedule make office developers reluctant in investing and announcing large-scale projects.The sites with residential development potential showed their resilience during challenging economic environment,while the first transactions

142、 with land plots for residential use but with a rent component were recorded this year.This type of demand is starting to pick up against the backdrop of the increase in interest rates and inflation,two factors that put pressure on selling prices.Another change in habits is revealed by developers wh

143、ich became willing to find business partners and create joint venture projects in order to dissipate risks,including the risk of a delayed project due to urbanism approvals.Nonetheless,demand for development land plots targeted by investors of luxury residential compounds seem to not be affected as

144、there is a constant demand for apartments generated by cash buyers.Demand for development land plots targeted by investors of luxury residential compounds seem to not be affected.In Bucharest,a shortage in office new supply already can be observed,since the public authorities did not manage to solve

145、 the zonal urbanistic plan(PUZ)issue.47CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaRemarkable and constant outcomes marked by the industrial market,especially in terms of leasing activity contributed at the increased demand for sites throughout the country suit

146、able for such developments.Even if logistics premises can be rapidly build-up once authorizations are in place,landlords still prefer to start construction works applying a half-half strategy,meaning that at least half of the leasable area is built-to-suit based on a pre-lease agreement,while the re

147、maining area is available at any time,no matter the construction status.In addition,the buoyant transactional activity encouraged developers to extend their attention towards regional cities,not necessarily established as industrial hubs.Thus,cities gathering approx.200,000 inhabitants such as Ploie

148、sti,Braila,Brasov and Iasi are amongst the new places were investors secure land plots for future logistics projects.Retail developers especially those with focus on retail parks,are actively acquiring and in search for sites throughout the country,including small cities with 10,000 inhabitants.Even

149、 so,the scarce offer for suitable land plots leads to retailers flexibility when negotiating a viable opportunity.Retail developers are actively acquiring and in search for sites throughout the country.The buoyant transactional activity in the industrial market,encouraged developers to extend their

150、attention towards regional cities.48CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaFor 2023 asking prices are estimated to maintain at the same level for office land plots located in prime locations,while a downward pressure can be felt for those in secondary loca

151、tions.Asking prices for residential sites are expected to witness a decrease as well,while development plots for retail are forecasted to maintain at the same level from 2022.*CUT refers to land use coefficientSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 25:Bucharest Asking Selling Price(Range)|Development LandOffice

152、 land plots in:prime locationssecondary locationsResidential land plotsRetail land plotsPrice evolution in 2023(EUR/CUT*point)5008007001,0005007004050(EUR/CUT*point)2003003006003004502035(EUR/sq m)(EUR/sq m)OFFICERESIDENTIALRETAILINDUSTRIALPrime Location Secondary Location 49CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,

153、INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaWhat comes as a conclusion based on the impressive track record registered throughout the entire 2022(arising from both sellers and buyers requirements),is that the price level is stable and transactions are concluded especially for land plo

154、ts with permits in place,not only for office use but for residential as well.If such properties are difficult to find in Bucharest,developers already took the necessary steps towards regional cities sized according to their expansion strategy and where they can obtain building authorizations and eas

155、ily foresee a delivery schedule.The infrastructure is the key element which becomes the ground zero for future logistics hubs in the vicinity of new ring roads,express roads and highways.Industrial sites with good location alongside approved urbanistic plans,developed infrastructure,easy access to u

156、tilities and public transport will maintain their value in 2023.On the other hand,with industrial developers focusing on in city logistics and sites in the vicinity of major roads(either existing,under construction or planned)such as the future modern A0 ring road for Bucharest activate new land off

157、ers determining a price competition.The impressive results marked by the industrial market,especially in terms of leasing activity contributed at the increased demand for sites throughout the country suitable for such developments.All this translating in a consistent industrial and logistics pipelin

158、e,encouraged developers to embrace a half pre-leased-half speculative type of strategy as well as to focus on smaller cities where infrastructure development projects were announced.Gabriela VladSenior Consultant A&T Services Land,CBRE Romania Copyright 2023.All rights reserved.This report has been

159、prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they are subject tosignificant uncertainties and contingencies,many of which are beyond CB

160、REs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have different opinions,projections and analyses,andactual market conditions in the future may cause CBREscurrent views to later be incorrect.

161、CBREhas no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBREs securities or of the performance of any other companys securities.You should not pu

162、rchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability forsecurities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all claims against CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents

163、,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,completeness,adequacy or your use of theinformation herein.Tudor IonescuHead of A&T Services OCarmen RavonHead of Retail Occupier CEEVictor RchitHead of Industrial&LAgency ContactsRzvanIorguManaging D Luiza MoraruHead of Property Management CEEMihai PtrulescuHead of Investment P Research ContactsDaniela GavrilHead of R Elena erbanSenior Research A RzvanIonescuMarketing MContactsGabriel BalabanHead of Project MOvidiu IonHead of VGabriela VladSenior Consultant A&T Services L