1、Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities in Emerging Markets and Developing EconomiesThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Th

2、rough its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms an

3、d conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.All rights

4、 reserved.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark EstoniaFinland France Germany Greece HungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand NorwayPoland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Swed

5、en Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineUnlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Abstra

6、ct in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The clean energy transition requires a fundamental transformation of power systems,including much higher levels of digitalisation at scale across all grid domains,from generation to transmission and distribution to end-use

7、.Strong policy attention is required to scale up investments in smarter and more resilient grids in emerging and developing economies where electricity consumption is set to grow at a rapid rate while also providing greater levels of electricity access.Investments in smarter and more resilient grids

8、 will be necessary to accommodate the greater deployment of renewable energy and enhance energy security.Digital technologies designed for power systems are instrumental to unlock essential system services required to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy.They can also provide solutions

9、 to leverage data flows,connectivity,and management across the whole electricity system.To unlock these digital opportunities,adequate planning,investment,and policy action are needed.As part of the Digital Demand Driven Electricity Networks(3DEN)initiative,this report provides guidance for energy p

10、olicy makers on possible ways to enable and drive investments in smart and resilient electricity grids.It also gives suggestions on how to start creating an environment that supports the effective use of innovative digital technologies within the electricity sector.It draws on examples and case stud

11、ies to show the wide range of digital opportunities and solutions that can help governments implement efficient and smart power systems.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Table of contents in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of Contents Abstract.3 Acknowledgements

12、,contributors,and credits.5 Executive summary.9 Introduction.17 Emerging markets and developing economies need reliable and efficient grids.17 Losses are weakening utilities and contributing to emissions.21 Decarbonisation requires digitalisation.26 The digitalisation opportunity.31 Smart grid techn

13、ology deployment is still low.31 Smart grids can enable cleaner,more affordable and secure electricity.32 Improving system performance reduces losses and costs.34 How to get investments to flow.47 Grid investment is lagging.47 Different investor profiles can be leveraged to overcome barriers to inve

14、stment.53 How to convey value and attract investors.63 How to accelerate smart grid implementation.69 Create a coherent vision.70 Co-ordinate implementation.76 Facilitate rules and regulations that adequately value digital opportunities.84 Integrate security and resilience across all electricity pol

15、icy domains.90 Track,evaluate and disseminate digitalisation progress.92 Starting the smart grid journey today.95 Actively engage with stakeholders.96 Manage data from the start.96 Ensure an equitable distribution of costs and benefits.96 The way forward.97 Annexes.99 Abbreviations and acronyms.99 U

16、nits of measure.101 Glossary.102 Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Acknowledgements,contributors,and credits in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors,and credits The IEA gratefully acknowledges the Italian Ministry of Environment and Energy Sec

17、urity for their support of this project as part of their contributions to the IEAs Digital Demand Driven Electricity Networks Initiative(3DEN)on electricity grid modernisation and digitalisation and to the Clean Energy Transitions Programme.Special thanks go to Federica Fricano,Annalidia Pansini,Ale

18、ssandra Fidanza,Emanuela Vignola and Alessandro Negrin.The IEA also thanks the Italian Ministry for Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation for its strategic guidance and collaboration,in particular Nicola Bazzani,Stefano Salomoni,Alessandra Pastorelli and Valeria Piazza.This report was devel

19、oped by the IEAs Energy Efficiency Division in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security.Vida Rozite led and co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report.It was authored by Brendan Reidenbach,Emi Bertoli and Ghislaine Kieffer,with key contributions from Pauline Henriot and Sungjin Oh,

20、as well as former IEA analysts George Kamiya and Edith Bayer.Keisuke Sadamori,Director of the Energy Markets and Security Division,Brian Motherway,Head of the Energy Efficiency Division,and Kevin Lane,Senior Programme Manager,provided support and strategic direction.Valuable comments and inputs were

21、 provided by IEA colleagues(in alphabetical order):Ashley Acker,Piotr Bojek,Stphanie Bouckaert,Francois Briens,Eren Cam,Jonathan Coppel,Javier Jorquera Copier,Marc Casanovas,Tanguy De Bienassis,Chiara Delmastro,Michael Drtil,Keith Everhart,Eric Fabozzi,Paolo Frankl,Enrique Gutierrez-Tavarez,Julia Gu

22、yon,Pablo Hevia-Koch,Zoe Hungerford,Nick Johnstone,Rena Kuwahata,Silvia Laera,Rebecca McKimm,Aloys Nghiem,Alessio Pastore,Ksenia Petrichenko,Isaac Portugal,Alison Pridmore,Arnaud Rouget,Alexandre Roussel,Gianluca Tonolo,Kartik Veerakumar,Brent Wanner,Jacques Warichet,and by former IEA analyst Luis L

23、opez.The work benefited from the expertise of consultants Matt Chester,Peter Fraser,Astha Gupta,Luis Munuera,Helena Linquist,Alvaro Lopez-Pea,and Monica Troilo.The IEA would like to thank the following experts who provided valuable inputs,review and encouragement(in alphabetical order):Bunmi Adekore

24、(Breakthrough Energy Ventures),John Andersson(The Lightswitch),Elisa Bastos(Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency(Brazils Electricity Regulator ANEEL),Max Berggren(The Lightswitch),Alberto Biancardi(Italian Energy Service System Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Acknowledgements,contributors,and

25、credits in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Operator GSE),Pierre Bivas(Voltalis),Daniel Brooks(Electric Power Research Institute EPRI,Britta Buchholz(Hitachi Energy),Felipe Calbria(ANEEL),Alicia Carrasco(Olivo Energy),Jos Pablo Chaves vila(Comillas University),Russ Conk

26、lin(US Department of Energy),Ganesh Das(Tata Power),Ercole De Luca(Areti),Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi(International Energy Initiative),Michele de Nigris(Research on the Energy Systems RSE),Mark Dyson(Rocky Mountain Institute),Gabriela Elizondo(World Bank),Juan Manuel Espaa Forero(Medelln University

27、),Niccolo Fattirolli(Olivo Energy),Alex Feil(ANEEL),Yann Fromont(Schneider Electric),Claudia Gibbard(UK Department for Business,Energy and Industrial Strategy BEIS),Pablo Gonzalez(Iberdrola),Giorgio Graditi(Italian National Agency for New Technologies,Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA

28、),Bruno Goulart(ANEEL),Nikos Hatziargyriou(European Technology and Innovation Platform of Smart Networks for Energy Transition),Shan Hu(Tsinghua University),M.Ilham(Indonesian Coordinating Ministry of Maritime Affairs),Selena Jihun Lee(World Bank),Lawrence E.Jones(Edison Electric Institute),Nicole K

29、erkhof-Damen(Dutch Enterprise Agency RVO),Arun Kumar Mishra(National Smart Grids Mission),Massimo La Scala(Politecnico di Bari),Helena Lindquist(The Lightswitch),Kabir Malik(World Bank),Massimo Maraziti(Directorate General for Energy,European Commission),Luca Marchisio(Trasmissione Elettrica Rete Na

30、zionale TERNA).Peter Markussen(Energinet),Rodolfo Martinez(Iberdrola),Luciano Martini(RSE),Vincent Minier(Schneider Electric),Juan David Molina Castro(Colombia Inteligente),Antonello Monti(Rhine-Westphalia Technical University Aachen),Mario Motta(Politecnico di Milano),Ngalula Sandrine Mubenga(Elect

31、ricity Regulatory Agency of Congo),Yacob Mulugetta(University College of London,Department of Science,Technology,Engineering&Public Policy),Stephen Nash(Kuungana Advisory),Andres Pinto-Bello(Smart Energy Europe smartEn),Anil Rawal(IntelliSmart),Tim Reber(NREL),J.B.V.Reddy(Department of Science&Techn

32、ology,Government of India),Jerson Reyes(Comisin Nacional de Energa,Chile CNE),Yvonne Ruwaida(Vattenfall),Ernesto Sandos Vallejo(Olivo Energy),Baris Sanli(Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources,Republic of Trkiye),Marina Santos(Neoenergia),Alexandra Schneiders(Users TCP,Global Observatory P2P),Davi

33、d Shipworth(University College of London,Energy Institute),Sanjay Seth(The Energy and Resources Institute TERI),Reena Suri(India Smart Grid Forum),Marcelo Tardo(CESI),Javier Toro,CNE),Matteo Troncia(Comillas University),Fernando David Martin Utrilla(Iberdrola),Marcos Vasconcelos(Brazilian Electricit

34、y Regulatory Agency,ANEEL),Mariana Vaz(ANEEL),Viviana Vitto(Enel),Kumud Whadwa(National Smart Grid Mission,and Da Yan(Tsinghua University).Thanks also to the IEA Communications and Digital Office(CDO)for their help in producing this publication,especially to Jad Mouawad,Head of CDO,Poeli Bojorquez,C

35、urtis Brainard,Jon Custer,Astrid Dumond,Tanya Dyhin,Merve Erdil,Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Acknowledgements,contributors,and credits in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Grace Gordon,Barbara Moure,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Julie Puech,Charner Ramsey,Gregory Viscusi

36、,Therese Walsh,and Wonjik Yang.Marilyn Smith(ORENDA Communications)edited the report and graphic design was by Caren and David Weeks(Weeks.de)The IEA remembers Kathleen Gaffney and her contribution to the work on energy efficiency and digitalisation.She is dearly missed.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportun

37、ities Acknowledgements,contributors,and credits in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Digital technologies can help resolve immediate c

38、hallenges and reduce investment costs The success of the clean energy transition requires a fundamental transformation of power systems,including much higher levels of digitalisation at scale across all grid domains,from generation to transmission and distribution to end-use.The digitalisation of gr

39、ids can support utilities to address demand growth,decarbonisation challenges and improve resilience.For example,digital solutions can enable utilities to locate and fix faults more effectively and provide quicker restoration times,lowering the cost and disruption caused by outages.Digital technolog

40、ies can also help improve maintenance and extend the lifetime of grid assets,which could defer an estimated USD 1.8 trillion of grid investment globally to 2050.Globally,current investment in grids is far short of the level needed to be on track for net zero globally;annual investment in grids will

41、need to more than double from around USD 330 billion per year to USD 750 billion by 2030,with around 75%of the investments allocated to the distribution grids to expand,strengthen,and digitalise technologies.There is great potential for raising ambitions;however,many challenges to ramp up investment

42、 remain.This report guides energy policy makers on the functionalities digital technologies can provide for more efficient and resilient electricity grids.In addition,it outlines possible ways to enable and drive investments and create a supportive regulatory and policy environment.Electricity is ce

43、ntral to clean energy transitions,but numerous challenges need to be tackled Electricity demand is set to outpace energy consumption over the next 25 years.In emerging markets and developing economies1,demand could increase by over 2 600 TWh by as early as 2030,equivalent to five times the current e

44、lectricity demand of Germany.Due to underinvestment,electricity systems globally face myriad challenges,including inefficiencies,losses,congestion and outages.Climate change is causing further damage to assets and affecting reliability.Electrification of end-1 In this report,emerging markets and dev

45、eloping economies(EMDE)is not including the Peoples Republic of China.Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|10 IEA.CC BY 4.0.uses,and changes in demand coupled with increasing shares of variable renewables are creating additional press

46、ures for advanced economies,emerging markets,and developing economies.The imperative to strengthen and modernise grids is increasingly acute in emerging markets and developing economies,where electricity consumption is set to grow at around three times the rate of advanced economies.One of the growi

47、ng sources of electricity demand is cooling.Many electricity utilities were already in a difficult financial situation heading into the Covid-19 pandemic,with operational losses climbing substantially since then.Moreover,2022 saw a reversal of recent progress in improving access to electricity,with

48、an additional 20 million people living without access,bringing the total affected number of people to nearly 775 million.Unreliable grids are posing severe risks to economies and people One of the immediate benefits of power system digitalisation is improvements in reliability.The cost of unreliable

49、 grids is high.Due to electricity outages,firms in emerging markets and developing economies operate below capacity each year and must pay for backup electricity generation.IEA estimates that without an improvement in the security of electricity supply enabled by digital technologies,these losses co

50、uld amount to almost USD 1.3 trillion through to 2030.This lost revenue could be vital to improving utilities finances and boosting economic development.In Sub-Saharan Africa in 2021,the amount of electricity produced by backup generators by the end-users exceeded that of all renewable energy produc

51、ed,with expenditure on backup generation exceeding the revenue of all combined national grids in the region.In some countries,unreliable grids have far-reaching effects on the economy,leading to gross domestic product(GDP)losses of up to 6%.Beyond monetary implications,interruptions affect all criti

52、cal infrastructures and can affect water and food supply,access to medical assistance,financial services,telecommunications and mobility.Thereby posing risks to health,wellbeing and safety and constraining daily activities and productivity.In addition,globally,technical losses in grids result in aro

53、und one gigaton of carbon dioxide(Gt CO2)emissions annually,while non-technical losses are the source of lost revenue of 80-100 billion per year but also create severe safety risks for people.Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|11 IE

54、A.CC BY 4.0.Power system digitalisation is crucial for efficiency and decarbonisation Smart grid implementation provides added value across a range of areas.The IEA estimates that digitally enabled demand response could reduce the curtailment of variable renewable energy systems by more than 25%by 2

55、030,increasing system efficiency and reducing costs for customers.Decarbonisation can be further supported through enhanced supply and demand forecasting,enabling integrated energy planning and providing better visibility and greater electricity demand flexibility.Many countries,including Brazil,Ind

56、ia and South Africa,are seeing a rapid increase in the uptake of distributed solar photovoltaic(PV)systems.For example,in Brazil,distributed solar PV installed capacity rose by almost 7 GW in 2022,an increase of more than 50%in one year alone.While higher shares significantly benefit energy security

57、 and decarbonisation,managing such growth is crucial to maintain system reliability,control system costs,and ensure that utility business models keep pace with these changes.Digitally enabled technologies are also crucial for expanding decentralised,clean energy access to communities in remote locat

58、ions or low-income areas not currently serviced by electricity grids.Digital solutions can enable more efficient mini-grids and larger standalone community assets.In addition,technologies such as smart inverters can help automatically monitor and manage electricity delivery and reduce service interr

59、uptions during peak demand while increasing the productive use of electricity during lower demand.Digital technologies can also enable better management of growing demand combined with the electrification of end-uses to help avoid unnecessary investment in grid expansion.In addition,these technologi

60、es limit infrastructure investment needs by providing real-time monitoring and control,especially in distribution systems.For example,space cooling is one of the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand.In some countries,cooling demand in buildings already accounts for as much as 30%of peak ele

61、ctricity loads.Moreover,rapidly increasing ownership and use of air conditioners will likely cause it to rise even faster.From around 2 billion units today,the number of air conditioners globally could double by 20302,of which 590 million may be added in emerging markets and developing economies.As

62、demand grows,the more granular locational and temporal visibility 2 Based on the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|12 IEA.CC BY 4.0.of digital electricity distribution systems,combined with s

63、uper-efficient appliances,can support grid stability,ensure electricity affordability and avoid localised outages.Targeted actions can help scale up investments in smart grid implementation To unlock these digital opportunities,adequate planning,investment and policy action are needed.For example,to

64、 bridge the investment gap and drive investments towards modernising grids,policymakers could consider actions to leverage the full range of potential investors and develop models that adequately value broader benefits.Many potential investors exist for smart grid projects,from state-owned enterpris

65、es to private investors and multilateral organisations.Governments could support the design of projects to leverage each type of investor best,considering their preferences for the right combination of debt,equity or grant financing to mobilise capital while still ensuring appropriate risk allocatio

66、n.Policy makers could consider opportunities to aggregate small projects to increase the potential pool of investors or realise economies of scale when focusing on procurement.To attract continued inward investment and build confidence,governments can signal to the market to form a future pipeline o

67、f projects.This requires future vision,planning and implementation.Substantial potential capital is available for grid projects.Still,it is necessary to build the business case for grid reinforcement,minimise transaction costs,reduce project risk profiles,and open up new value chains.International c

68、o-operation can promote standardisation to reduce barriers and increase digital grid investments.Beyond these points,a critical aspect is creating incentives for utilities to invest and supporting the development of plans,capacity,and tools to stimulate investments and accelerate implementation.Five

69、 policy action areas to support smart grid implementation and continuous improvement Beyond targeted actions to facilitate investments,this report identifies five key steps for governments to accelerate the implementation of digital technologies.Create a coherent vision and modernise planning A cruc

70、ial first step is for governments to envision how digital grid technologies can help meet country priorities including grid upgrades,energy access and decarbonisation.This vision can then be translated into updated policy and Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing econ

71、omies Executive summary PAGE|13 IEA.CC BY 4.0.regulatory frameworks,which recognise the value of investments to harness digital capabilities and system efficiency.This requires engaging all stakeholders from the digital and energy spaces.Governments can also drive investment by helping utilities ado

72、pt integrated planning.As electricity grids become increasingly complex,a whole-systems approach to planning is key to embedding digital deployment into energy and broader economic plans.Too often,planning does not include a systemic approach.It is also important to consider distributed resources an

73、d the demand side in planning and aligning investment decisions across system operators,network companies and other actors in vertically integrated and unbundled markets.Co-ordinate implementation Governments can help ensure coherence between energy,electricity,economy,digital and other departments,

74、digital and energy regulators,and the digital and electricity industry.Governments can also help align national innovation systems for digital transformation with energy policy objectives.For example,large-scale demonstrations can help test digital solutions on energy infrastructure,which generally

75、require a certain scale to validate business cases.Governments can also play an active role,including a convening one,in enhancing data access and sharing all crucial for digital innovations to validate their business models.Government stewardship of power system planning could also ensure that more

76、 comprehensive socio-economic benefits of digitalisation are widely and equitably shared,not least to improve access and provide the skills needed for new employment in smart grids.Facilitate rules and regulations that adequately value digital solutions In their regulatory capacity,governments could

77、 consider dedicated policies and regulations to incentivise and de-risk digitalisation investments.This includes considering a shift towards performance-based regulatory oversight by providing incentives and penalties to meet clean energy transition objectives and measures to support innovation.Gove

78、rnments can also help incorporate the value of electricity across all policies and the importance of supply-demand balance and flexibility.Providing guidance and support for more nuanced evaluations of costs and benefits and future-proofing policies and constraints can pave the way for digitalisatio

79、n to interact with electricity grids in a way that promotes systems efficiency.Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|14 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Integrate resiliency and security across all electricity policy domains In the context of mounting cl

80、imate impacts,there is an opportunity to build resilience while expanding and developing power systems.Governments increasingly strive to integrate resiliency and security across all electricity policy domains,including through long-term planning and strategic frameworks such as Nationally Determine

81、d Contributions(NDCs),energy transition plans,or Low Emissions Development Strategies(LEDS)which highlight the value of physical and digital resilience.They could also ensure cyber resilience is mainstreamed across rules and regulations which can greatly promote digitalisation investment.Governments

82、 also have a key role in helping manage systemic risks and strengthen the ties between digital and physical infrastructure resiliency and security.Track,evaluate and disseminate digitalisation progress Governments can create a data-driven culture in the public sector,which includes monitoring and ev

83、aluating digitalisation progress.Targeting,implementing and enforcing government policies can all be enhanced by continuously monitoring the implementation of energy transition and digital strategies.Digital tools can play a key role in this respect,provided governments reinforce their institutional

84、 capacity to manage and monitor project implementation.Policy makers could consider actions to promote information sharing underpinned by robust data frameworks,monitoring and evaluation.Strengthening international collaboration and knowledge sharing is vital to developing common practices and stand

85、ards and identifying areas where innovation can be leveraged jointly,accelerating progress at a lower cost.Collaborative approaches are warranted for demonstration projects to provide valuable lessons on how to manage digital technologies at a larger scale and create evidence of the value created by

86、 digital solutions and technologies,which can,in turn,help de-risk future investments.The IEA monitors electricity system digitalisation progress and provides continued guidance Produced under the Digital Demand Driven Electricity Networks(3DEN)initiative,this publication is the first of a set of th

87、ree IEA 2023 reports on grids and digitalisation as part of a growing portfolio of analysis and policy guidance.It will be followed by an IEA Special Report on Power Grids,that will provide a global stock-take and perspectives,which in turn will be followed by a further 3DEN report“Grids of the Futu

88、re”that will focus on the role of digital technologies in accelerating and integrating distributed and renewable energy technologies and Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|15 IEA.CC BY 4.0.the policy actions needed today.This report

89、 will look through the lens of the IEA Net Zero Emissions Scenario and examine the shifts in electricity landscapes and the functionalities needed to address these changes while maintaining security,affordability,and sustainability.This will then be used as a mirror to reflect on electricity grids t

90、oday to explore what actions will be necessary to facilitate the increased demand due to cross-sectoral electrification,higher shares of variable renewable energy penetration,and how digitalisation can be leveraged as a tool to manage the intermittency of supply,provide system balancing,and ultimate

91、ly increase whole system efficiency.In addition,the IEA is producing a range of knowledge products and is creating opportunities for peer-to-peer experience exchange and learning.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Unlocking smart grid opportunities in emerging markets and developing economies Executive summary PAGE|16 I

92、EA.CC BY 4.0.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|17 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Introduction Emerging markets and developing economies need reliable and efficient grids In recent decades electricity grids in many emerging markets and developing economi

93、es have improved dramatically,with increased reliability,added capacity,and access extended to millions of people for the first time.However,these improvements have not been replicated in all regions,where some have struggled to meet growing demand with limited resources and a legacy of old,ineffici

94、ent power systems.With many households still lacking access to reliable electricity,there is great potential for well-functioning,modern,digitally enabled electricity grids to drive socio-economic development.The start of the 2020s has greatly exacerbated these issues,amplifying a sense of urgency a

95、bout the state of electricity infrastructure and its role in the planets future.First,in addition to bringing the immediate burden of a major public health crisis,the Covid-19 pandemic triggered economic recessions in many emerging markets and developing economies.Second,in 2022,the Russian Federati

96、ons(hereafter,Russia)invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves through global energy markets.The spike in fuel costs in 2022-23 has created extraordinarily difficult financial circumstances for utilities around the world.Many were already under pressure to minimise price increases,as customers are partic

97、ularly sensitive to price hikes and still maintain financial strength.The impact on utilities in emerging markets and developing economies is even more debilitating as it slashes funds available for investment when such financing needs to increase substantially and rapidly.For many utilities,the nee

98、d to deal with a continual flow of pressing challenges makes it impossible to plan or direct limited resources towards embedding modern functionalities during routine asset replacements.Ultimately,this can lead to stranded assets or inefficient technological lock-ins.In turn,unreliable supply and as

99、sociated load-shedding practices create a vicious circle that further undermines utility revenues.These recent crises highlight the increasing urgency to transform energy systems in line with the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.The latest(2023)assessment from the International Panel on Climate Change(I

100、PCC)concludes that to limit global warming to 1.5C,global CO2 emissions must be reduced by nearly one-half by 2030 and reach net zero by around 2050.This hinges on two major transformations:bringing online vast amounts of clean electricity generation,much of it variable;electrifying large volumes of

101、 demand.To achieve a people centred Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|18 IEA.CC BY 4.0.and inclusive clean energy transition that enhances peoples lives,an overarching challenge is to ensure access to reliable,affordable,and sustainable

102、 electricity.With growing populations,increased urbanisation and economic development leading to an increased standard of living,electricity demand is expected to continue to increase significantly in the coming years.Electricity demand in emerging markets and developing economies could increase by

103、over 2 600 TWh3 by as early as 2030,equivalent to five times the current electricity demand of Germany.One of the growing sources of electricity demand is cooling.Opportunities exists to develop and implement strategies that shift towards electrification.While still in the early stages in most emerg

104、ing markets and developing economies,electrification of heating,transport and many industrial processes will also drive electricity demand and change demand patterns.Space cooling demand by region in the Stated Policies Scenario and Announced Policies Scenario by 2030 and 2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Ele

105、ctricity demand for cooling rises by 3 200 TWh to 2050 in the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS);growth is cut by more than 50%in the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS)thanks to air conditioner and building envelope efficiency gains.Whether emerging markets and developing economies can leverage this oppor

106、tunity depends heavily on whether electricity generated can be delivered efficiently and reliably to demand centres which raises the core question of grid preparedness.In recent years in many emerging markets and developing economies,there has been good progress in financing and constructing additio

107、nal generation capacity.However,the effectiveness of these responses,in particular the amount of new variable renewables that could be interconnected to the grids,3 Based on IEA Announced Pledges Scenario,electricity demand for EMDE countries excluding the Peoples Republic of China.4%8%12%2 0004 000

108、6 0002021STEPSAPSSTEPSAPSLeft axis labelRest of worldJapanAfricaEuropean UnionC&S AmericaMiddle EastSoutheast AsiaUnited StatesChinaIndiaShare of electricityUnlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|19 IEA.CC BY 4.0.will depend on the grid infr

109、astructure itself and operational readiness of grid operators,at distribution and transmission level.Private investment has also not helped alleviate the situation:the international focus has been kept on channelling investment flows toward generation assets.Current and future challenges for electri

110、city grids in emerging markets and developing economies IEA.CC BY 4.0.Underinvestment is holding back development Today we are experiencing a global energy crisis not just oil but also gas,coal,and electricity.The shortages of gas and coal are driving electricity prices up and making electricity una

111、ffordable and,in some cases,unavailable.While much of the attention has been on Europe,this crisis is affecting emerging and developing countries even more including through growing inability to pay te high prices for gas and coal that we now see in world markets.This is causing electricity security

112、 concerns in some countries such as Pakistan,Bangladesh,India,and Thailand facing difficulty to secure gas contracts with all the potential negative impacts on the health of citizens and on economic growth and development.Concerns about electricity grid reliability and the cost of grid-supplied elec

113、tricity are driving more and more consumers to invest in alternatives,often fossil-fuelled generators.This places additional pressure on already weak utilities.In markets with the highest fossil fuel-based generator use,including much of Sub-Saharan Africa,spending on fuel for generators now exceeds

114、 that of the entire electricity grid.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|20 IEA.CC BY 4.0.However,these are symptoms of a broader,chronic issue:the cost of long-term underinvestment in electricity infrastructure in many parts of the world

115、.There are cost and value implications for energy utilities,businesses,citizens,and the national economy.Insufficient infrastructure is constraining economic growth It is estimated that due to electricity outages,each year firms in emerging markets and developing economies experience an efficiency l

116、oss of around USD 38 billion due to operating below capacity,sales losses of USD 82 billion,fixed and variable costs for back up electricity generation of USD 65 billion,all of which could amount to almost USD 1.3 trillion through to 2030.In some emerging markets and developing economies,the loss of

117、 electricity is more frequent.On average,Nigerian firms for example,experience 25 electricity outages in a typical month,while in Bangladesh,firms reported over 100 electricity outages a month.There are obvious impacts from electricity outages to a firm relying on electricity for productive work,sho

118、ps and markets being affected,and food manufacturing being forced to stop production and creating supply chain issues.Many firms rely on electricity for card payment,for staff working from home or onsite,or for administration purposes.The global economic effects of electricity outages are not spread

119、 evenly.China,it is estimated that the interruption costs to firms for a single outage event is around USD 200 million.Firms in high-income countries experience,on average a loss in sales of as little as 0.5%annually,whereas firms in EMDEs can experience as much as 5.5%loss in sales.Measuring the co

120、sts of insecure electricity supply One metric used to estimate the economic effects of insecure energy is the value of lost load(VoLL),which is seen as the price society is willing to pay to avoid an electricity cut.Studies show that the VoLL in the European Union ranges up to more than USD 130.00/k

121、Wh,and in the United States and New Zealand to more than USD 250.00.In Indonesia,it is calculated to be just over USD 2.00/kWh while in Brazil,it is less than USD 1.50.The VoLL can be used to evaluate direct costs of limited amounts of energy not supplied,dependant on several factors such as the aff

122、ected stakeholders,the time of day,duration,frequency and season of the disruption.However,it does not fully reflect all the broader costs to society of interruption,especially for high-impact events or lack of access.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing

123、 economies PAGE|21 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Losses are weakening utilities and contributing to emissions One issue that contributes to both grid instability and poor financial standing of utilities is losses.In both electrical transmission and distribution systems,there are two categories of losses:technical l

124、osses(TL)and non-technical losses(NTL).Some TL are a function of the size of a grid and are due to the distances electricity needs to travel along transmission and distribution systems.However,technical losses can also be attributed to aging infrastructure or faulty workmanship at weak points where

125、cables are jointed together or terminated at transformers or switchgear.Infrastructure operating outside of its designed parameters for example,where underground cables,overhead line conductors or transformers are inadequately sized for current they are carrying will also exacerbate efficiency losse

126、s.In contrast,NTL are linked to other factors such as faulty meters,unregistered meters or fraudulent meter reading teams;bypassed meters;or illegal connections to the distribution system;or incorrect billing by the utility.NTL can be from both residential and large non-residential users.Indeed,when

127、 NTL are greater than 25%of supply to the system,then it is likely to be from large commercial or industrial users.Globally,technical losses in grids result in around 1 gigaton of carbon dioxide(Gt CO2)emissions annually.The IEA estimates that reducing worldwide losses towards efficient levels of ar

128、ound 5%from as much as 18%in some regions today could reduce these emissions by over 400 million tonnes(Mt CO2),which is more than the total annual emissions of Mexico.Globally,it is estimated that the commercial effects of non-technical losses amount to between USD 80-100 billion each year.The addi

129、tional burden of weak grids To mitigate the intermittency of electricity supply,many firms faced the decision of whether to accept that there will be periods in which activities will cease because of outages or to invest in an element of self-resilience.This is usually an emergency backup generator,

130、which most of the time relies on diesel as a source of fuel.Firms incur additional costs to acquire and operate such systems.It is estimated that,each year,firms in emerging markets and developing economies spend USD 6 billion to procure generators and almost USD 60 billion on operating costs for fu

131、el and maintenance.In India,for example,commercial and industrial entities Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|22 IEA.CC BY 4.0.consume up to 300 litres of diesel each hour during outages of up to 6 hours per day.In Sub-Saharan Africa,the

132、 collective spend on fuel for generators is more than the expenditure for operating the combined national grids.This further reinforces the trap of the vicious cycle of underinvestment in electricity infrastructure.In Sub-Saharan Africa,backup generator capacity was 45 GW in 2021,more than all the r

133、enewablesbased generation capacity in the region.Nigeria alone has 13 GW,with 40%of total electricity produced from backup generation.Worsening financial difficulties experienced by many emerging markets and developing economies utilities are hampering investment in new transmission and distribution

134、 assets,resulting in a progressively obsolescent system.For firms,the additional running costs for backup generation can be twice as expensive as grid-connected electricity.Between 2021 and 2022 in Nigeria,for consumers using a mix of grid and backup generation,electricity costs increased by 150 to

135、170%;those dependent on diesel generators alone have faced an increase of 220 to 260%.Economic effect to firms due to insecure electricity supply,with average annual electricity service interruptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA(2023),IEA analysis based on World Bank(2023),and World Bank(2019),The Busin

136、ess Costs of Unreliable Infrastructure in Developing Countries(accessed 30 May 2023)Backup generation is also linked to environmental issues in developing countries,contributing over 100 Mt CO2 emissions annually,which is more than the total emissions of Belgium.It also creates localised ambient(out

137、door)air pollution with deadly levels of particulate matter.Globally,ambient air pollution is responsible for over 4 million premature deaths annually,and disproportionately affects developing countries.People in Africa are six times more likely than those in the United States to die prematurely fro

138、m air pollution.10%20%30%40%50%60%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35MoroccoTunisiaIndonesiaIndiaColombiaBrazilSouth AfricaSystem average interruption duration index(SAIDI),2020 System average interruption duration index(SAIDI)Average losses due to electrical outages(%of annual sales)If a generator is used,averag

139、e proportion of electricity from a generator(%)Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|23 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The main factors for NTL can be unaffordability for the user,poor customer-energy utility relations where unpaid consumption is viewed as

140、a means of protest and a culture of non-payment has been established,or faulty equipment where the customer or utility may be unaware of an issue.In Ghana,after multiple interventions,NTL is over 25%of gross electricity generated and has an estimated cost of over USD 400 million annually.In 2021,NTL

141、s in Brazil amounted to almost 36 TWh,costing around USD 1.8 billion.Loss of life is another challenge,particularly for those who come in to contact with live cables while actively involved in illegally obtaining electricity or do so unwittingly.One electrical distribution utility in Ghana stated th

142、at in their operational area alone covering 30%of the country,between 2014 and 2022,over 180 people suffered electric shock,of which more than 130 were fatally injured.The true number is likely to be much higher,particularly in rural areas where incidents may go unreported.For example,in Ugandas Eas

143、tern region,there are an estimated 50 incidents of electric shock occur per week.The Ghanaian Dumsor Crisis Dumsor is translated from local dialects in Ghana as“quench and kindle”or“off-on”and is used colloquially to describe persistent electricity outages.Dumsor has provided a fascinating insight i

144、nto how unreliable supply reduced the value of electricity and created a vicious cycle of reduced willingness to pay.Initially,a capacity shortage precipitated the Dumsor due to reduced water levels in the Volta Hydroelectric Dam.To increase the security of supply,additional gas turbines were brough

145、t online in subsequent years,but damage to a Nigerian gas pipeline supplying Ghana led to further capacity shortages and subsequent electricity outages.The economic effects from Dumsor over the period 2012-16 have been estimated as a GDP loss somewhere between USD 320-920 million,amounting to betwee

146、n 2-6%of Ghanaian GDP.At the subnational level,the effects of outages were not evenly spread across the electricity grid,with some feeders experiencing more loss of supply incidences.The data from a 2019 study on non-payment of electricity in Ghana demonstrated how these events contribute to a vicio

147、us circle.There is an almost 17%increase in unpaid electricity bills from customers on the most-affected sections of the grid compared to those that had uninterrupted supply,with the average debt standing at almost three times the monthly charge.This situation of poor quality of supply,high non-paym

148、ent of bills and low financial performance of the utility is not the case only of Ghana.Of 76 utilities in the 45 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa,around one-in-three recover their operating and debt-service costs.Without government subsidies,this ratio falls even lower,to one-in-four.Unlocking Smart

149、 Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|24 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Millions have lost access to electricity The first priorities for electricity policy across Africa remain increasing access and improving reliability for endusers.In 2022,some 80%of firms and close to

150、 60%of households in the region face regular unplanned and lengthy outages.Electricity access remained unavailable for almost 775 million people in 2022 mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa.In fact,up to 30 million people across the continent who previously enjoyed access can no longer afford electricity.Th

151、is number is on the increase,reversing a decade of steady improvement.Fewer than 6 in 10 African households are connected to an electric grid.Preliminary findings from an ongoing IEA assessment indicate that around one-third of African households cannot afford to pay for 100 kWh per month,which corr

152、esponds to the electricity needed to power on a daily basis for four lightbulbs for four hours,a TV for three hours,a fan for six hours and a refrigerator running 24/7.Unreliable electricity supply also causes strain on businesses,disrupting production and commerce by forcing the closure of shops an

153、d affecting revenues.Moreover,electricity quality is critical for businesses as electrical tools and machinery are sensitive to disturbances such as sags in voltage.These can lead to expensive downtime and production losses or could damage equipment with increased outlays for new equipment,repair or

154、 maintenance costs.Pressure on electricity systems is increasing In recent years,increasing demand for electricity,a lack of flexibility and increased frequency and severity of climaterelated disasters including storms,floods and wildfires are increasing the risk profile for transmission and distrib

155、ution(T&D)systems and assets.Individually or collectively,they can lead to high losses,large-scale outages,changes in transfer capacity,physical damage and accelerated aging all of which can undermine energy access,availability,reliability and security.Globally,around half of electricity networks ar

156、e currently located in areas with a high fire weather index,meaning meteorological conditions are favourable for fires to start and spread.Some 18%of grids are exposed to a high risk of wildfires,experiencing more than 200 days of fire weather annually.In turn,over 10%of systems are exposed to tropi

157、cal cyclones.In Indonesia,tropical cyclones damaged electricity transmission networks in 2019 and 2021.An extreme heatwave in 2019 triggered a havoc-wreaking combination of higher peak electricity demand for cooling and lower production capacity,resulting in rolling blackouts on Lombok Island over s

158、everal weeks.In Beijing,50%of all distribution network failures in recent years have been linked to meteorological disasters.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|25 IEA.CC BY 4.0.But not all climate change impacts are sudden and severe ano

159、malies.In 2021,in Central and South America,lower than expected rainfall in the last few years including in Argentina,Ecuador and Mexico meant the Brazilian hydroelectricity grid which is around 60%of electricity gross supply experienced its worst natural inflow rate in almost 100 years.The need to

160、use the full thermal backup capacity and to procure emergency assets and electricity exchange from foreign countries pushed up the generation-driven costs that get passed on to retail all consumers.For instance,during the peak of the financial crisis from September 2021 to April 2022,the retail segm

161、ent approximately 60%of the power market,saw the variable part of the tariff increase by 980%against the same period average pattern of the three preceding years.Anticipated sea-level rise may force some countries or companies to relocate electricity grid assets.One study found that to avoid inundat

162、ion,Bangladesh would have to relocate approximately one-third of all electricity plants by 2030.These data demonstrate the importance of investing to make grids more resilient.Managing demand growth is becoming more challenging In many places,continued urbanisation and economic development leading t

163、o increased living standards is driving high energy demand growth,particularly for electricity.Space cooling is already one of the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand,and rapidly increasing air conditioner(AC)ownership and use is likely to cause it to rise even faster.Heatwaves are expecte

164、d to increase in frequency and intensity as average temperatures rise and populations grow and become increasingly urbanised,further pushing up cooling needs.By 2040 as identified in the IEA India Energy Outlook,increased demand for cooling could increase annual electricity demand by 10%,with a dail

165、y difference between the lowest and highest airconditioning load of over 200 GW4,compared with less than 40 GW today.Most people with space cooling needs still do not have access to adequate means to cool their homes.Only 10%of households have AC in India and Indonesia,compared to over 90%in the Uni

166、ted States and Australia.Even so,the 2022 heatwaves in India created unprecedented spikes in demand from AC units and fans,causing electricity outages for millions and prompting plans to boost coal production by 100 Mt over the next three years(2023 to 2026)to satisfy increased fuel demand for elect

167、ricity stations.Electrification of many other end-uses is also rapidly changing the overall demand outlook.While still in the early stages in most emerging markets and developing economies due to lower ability to pay and limited availability of affordable models,4 Based on IEA(2021),Stated Policies

168、Scenario,India Energy Outlook.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|26 IEA.CC BY 4.0.electrification of heating and transport is expected to further push up demand while also changing demand patterns.Around 20%of new car sales in the People

169、s Republic of China(hereafter,“China”)are now electric vehicles.In Brazil,India and Indonesia,fewer than 0.5%of new car sales are electric.However,many countries are seeing rapidly increasing electric two-and three-wheeler sales.In 2021,sales of two-and three-wheelers reached 230 000 in Viet Nam and

170、 300 000 in India,and China registered 9.5 million new sales alone.Decarbonisation requires digitalisation Secure,affordable,clean energy transitions require large increases in investment in electricity grids.While solar,wind and other renewables receive a lot of attention in emerging markets and de

171、veloping economies,a blind spot regarding the role of grids is increasingly evident.To make the transition to clean electricity generation more secure and affordable,more electricity will need to flow through T&D networks,coming from more sources and being delivered to more end-use points.Without ad

172、equate and timely investment in electricity T&D networks,developing and deploying new generation capacity may fail to deliver on both climate action goals and purely economic terms.Faster deployment of variable renewable energy can help emerging markets and developing economies boost national energy

173、 independence and meet climate goals earlier.This potential,however,is being seriously constrained by shortcomings in two key areas:a)lack of investment in T&D grid infrastructure,including modern,digital solutions;and b)the need to strengthen planning and operational practices of utilities to moder

174、n standards in order to properly assess stability,reserves,generation,and adequacy.The Brazilian example is illustrative.Over a 20-year period from 2003,Brazil has systematically pursued a strategy to more than double its transmission infrastructure,from 80 000 km to almost 190 000 km,and included l

175、arge-scale deployment of both distributed and utility-scale variable renewables.This ambitious expansion however,posed certain challenges including transmission constraints.A recent study by the Brazilian regulator examined the transmission-driven costs embedded in electricity tariffs,and made recom

176、mendations based on node-level pricing.This provided better economic signals regarding localities where investments and reinforcements are most needed,the new regulation is designed such that transmission tariffs reflect more precisely the generation-siting costs.Across emerging markets and developi

177、ng economies,the next decade is essential to ensure electricity grids can reliably absorb the large volumes of renewable electricity needed for energy security and climate change mitigation.In parallel to substantially increased grid investments,this requires opening up systems in Unlocking Smart Gr

178、id Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|27 IEA.CC BY 4.0.these regions to new technologies and solutions that support increased demand flexibility.The IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario:indicates that,by 2030,around one-quarter of global grid flexibility

179、needs would be met by demand response and battery storage.Demand-side flexibility in particular grows ten-fold compared to 2020 levels to reach 500 GW by 2030 a capacity equivalent to all of Europes wind and solar plants in 2022.Opportunity exists to draw on lessons learned Many countries are active

180、ly promoting increased uptake of distributed solar photovoltaic(DPV)systems as well as demand-side and flexibility assets.All have decarbonisation benefits:if not managed carefully,however,they can create unintended stress for electricity grids.Rapid uptake of DPV,if unmanaged,can increase operation

181、al complexity and impact the resilience of transmission networks.Reverse flows in distribution feeders could lead to mass disconnection when the grid becomes unstable;in turn,additional,further stress on the grid could trigger a blackout.As such,large DPV deployment may make it necessary to reinforc

182、e certain parts of the grid.It may also require addressing net demand forecast uncertainty and create difficulties in planning and operation of electricity grids.All of these changes could have the negative effect of reducing revenues for utilities and thus challenge their viability.As noted above,w

183、hile distribution companies in Brazil have made considerable investments to boost DPV connections,actual operations are affecting the affordability of electricity for consumers.In South Africa,frequent blackouts resulting from generation inadequacy prompted an increase of DPV installations,which had

184、 the effect of reducing supply bought from the grid and meant that surplus injected through older meters actually turned the meters backwards.This results,de facto,in a net-metering scheme for consumers and a financial strain for utilities which is expected to accelerate with the launch of regulator

185、y incentives designed to have DPV help plug the electricity supply gap.These examples demonstrate that,without adequate planning and deployment of tools to allow for visibility,monitoring,management and control,large-scale DPV deployment could become a grid problem.Electric vehicles(EVs)are another

186、important element in broader energy system decarbonisation.Globally,EV sales reached an historical high of 10 million in 2022.The share of electric cars in total car sales was 14%in 2022,more than 10 times their share in 2017.How EVs affect electricity demand and electricity grids will differ region

187、ally.In Germany,adding an EV to a typical household of four people could increase its peak electricity demand by 70%.While the share of EVs in emerging markets and developing economies is still low,uptake is on the rise Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developi

188、ng economies PAGE|28 IEA.CC BY 4.0.and projections suggest that by 2030 there could be over 240 million EVs5,including two-and three-wheelers,on the road in EMDE countries,with another 100 million in China.Sales of electric cars in India,Thailand and Indonesia more than tripled in 2022 compared to 2

189、021.Over half of Indias three-wheeler registrations in 2022 were electric.In areas with robust grids,a high level of EV penetration can be achieved without any negative impacts.Where transformers are already overloaded,however,even low levels of EV uptake can cause disruptions.To avoid such operatio

190、nal problems and lost revenues,system operators could adequately plan,develop processes,and deploy tools that allow for visibility,monitoring,management and control of large-scale DPV deployment.In fact,opportunity exists to integrate DPVs and EVs such that they contribute to improving overall syste

191、m efficiency and electricity security.In Australia,the market operator has a digital register for all distributed energy resources(DER)installations such as DPV and behind-the-meter batteries to improve visibility and controllability.This enables the operator to know what has been installed and wher

192、e,and which firm completed the installation.It also identifies the independent agent that could disconnect the device in an emergency situation to avoid a cascading blackout.Smart grids can help resolve challenges faster and at a lower cost Drawing on lessons learned in planning and execution from e

193、arlier adopters of digitalisation around the world,emerging markets and developing economies could significantly benefit from targeted smart grid deployments to both upgrade their electricity network infrastructure,and tackle the numerous challenges outlined.Early investment can help bring down the

194、total cost of clean energy transitions over time.Smart grid implementation provides added value across a range of areas.The IEA estimates that realising the potential of digitalisation in grids could reduce the curtailment of variable renewable energy systems by more than 25%by 2030,increasing syste

195、m efficiency and reducing costs for customers.Digital technologies applicable to electricity grids encompass both hardware and software.In the first category,examples include smart meters,digital substations,sensors and other digital monitoring equipment,smart EV charging infrastructure,and smart in

196、verters.Software solutions typically optimise use of such tools by adding capacities such as renewable generation and demand forecasting,geographic information systems(GIS),automated monitoring and decision support(AMDS)tools,advanced grid planning,and asset management.Most are 5 Based on IEA(2023),

197、Stated Policies Scenario,Global EV Outlook 2023.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|29 IEA.CC BY 4.0.supported by enabling infrastructure in the form of communication networks and platforms that collect,store and manage data.By providing

198、improved data and analytics for planning and decision making,as well as enhanced controls and automation,digital technologies support system-wide efficiency and resilience.AMDS tools,for example,help pre-empt problems on the grid and improve maintenance,thereby avoiding faults and extending the life

199、span of assets.Enhanced monitoring and early warning systems also hold potential to respond more rapidly and effectively to unusual circumstances,such as extreme weather events.By providing quicker restoration times,they can lower the cost and disruption caused by outages.Digital technologies can al

200、so help reduce losses,whether technical or non-technical,by reducing operational costs which translates into lower bills for most consumers.Lower losses also improve electricity quality,thereby reducing the risk of damage to consumer assets.Importantly as electricity grids become more decentralised,

201、tools to better monitor and manage supply and demand can improve reliability,unlock new sources of flexibility,increase the hosting capacity of renewables and distributed energy resources,reduce curtailment of renewables and DERs,and improve productivity of plants.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities

202、Introduction in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|30 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|31 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The digitalisation opportunity Smart grid technology deployment is still low Many count

203、ries worldwide are well underway on a journey of electricity grid modernisation,including through upgrading existing infrastructure with modern digitally enabled technologies.Others are just starting to explore what opportunities digitalisation can unlock and what challenges smart grid technologies

204、can help resolve.Digitalisation is a broad term that encompasses a wide range of technologies,applications and functionalities that leverage information and communications technologies(ICT).For the electricity sector,digitalisation opens new opportunities to improve the efficiency and resilience of

205、systems by leveraging data collection and data insights to implement new levels of observability,control and automation.Digital technologies allow for increased communication among devices and facilitates both remote control and self-regulation.A smart grid is an electricity network that uses digita

206、l and other advanced technologies to monitor and manage the transport of electricity from all generation sources to meet the varying electricity demands of end-users.Smart grids co-ordinate the needs and capabilities of all generators,grid operators,end-users and electricity market stakeholders to o

207、perate all parts of the system as efficiently as possible,minimising costs and environmental impacts while maximising system reliability,resilience,flexibility and stability.Digital solutions to tackle short-and long-term network challenges IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:DG=Distributed generation.Source:World E

208、conomic Forum,Accelerating Smart Grid Investments.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|32 IEA.CC BY 4.0.At the transmission level,advanced sensors such as phasor management units(PMUs)support faster and more flexible oper

209、ation and improved control,making the grid more observable so that effects of further integration of variable renewable energy(VRE)and other technologies can be better understood and managed.At present,however,deployment is still low in some emerging markets and developing economies.Globally,digital

210、 infrastructure investment is increasingly being directed towards distribution grid with two activities dominating.The first is the roll-out of smart meters,and secondly the automation of substations,feeders,lines,and transformers via deployment of sensors and monitoring devices.The spectrum of solu

211、tions available is becoming broader and is rapidly expanding.Examples of technologies that have potential to reduce costs and improve performance include digital twins which are digital simulations of physical infrastructure that mimic real-world conditions,and new approaches such as non-wire altern

212、atives which use digital management to manage demand to postpone or avoid replacing sections of grid infrastructure.The large menu of digital options is linked to an important point:there is no singular starting point or universal pathway towards establishing a smarter grid.Progress is achieved over

213、 time through systematic,incremental processes and the final state varies depending on each system.Reflecting the challenges at hand and the resources available,changes and improvements in system are usually implemented incrementally.The pathways towards smart grids will also vary across national an

214、d regional contexts;the existing state of transmission and distribution infrastructure;generation capacities and demand patterns;and priorities,needs and capabilities.Smart grids can enable cleaner,more affordable and secure electricity Smart grid technologies have applications across the whole elec

215、tricity system,including generation,transmission,distribution and demand side.While some technologies offer functionalities for specific parts of the system,the main value of digital technologies arises from opportunities to leverage data flow,connectivity and management across systems.Unlocking Sma

216、rt Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|33 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Digital solutions for clean energy and system-wide efficiency IEA.CC BY 4.0.Digitalisation can provide real-time data to help improve grid operating reliability,reduce operational

217、costs through automation while improving worker safety,and increase overall system efficiency.To capture their full benefits,technologies need to be utilised in harmony across various parts of systems.To better understand the potential of specific solutions and how they can be integrated for optimal

218、 gains,technologies and solutions can be categorised in groups based on functionalities provided.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|34 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Five main areas where digital technologies can positively impact grids

219、 today IEA.CC BY 4.0.Improving system performance reduces losses and costs Deploying and using digital technologies creates more efficient,agile,and resilient systems in which decisions are based on robust evidence and reaction times are dramatically reduced from tens of minutes,or even hours to sec

220、onds or less.In helping to decrease losses,temper peak time strains,reduce the number and Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|35 IEA.CC BY 4.0.duration of electricity outages,minimise curtailment,and avoid traditional wi

221、re upgrades,digital solutions help reduce system costs.Better data and insights,coupled with enhanced system monitoring,can also help improve planning and build resilience to withstand impacts of climate change.All of these measures also provide wider public good benefits in terms of improving relia

222、bility of electricity supply,which can help create a more attractive business environment for investors and enable local businesses to develop and grow.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Reducing electricity system losses A combination of digital technologies and approaches,including digital metering and analytics,custo

223、mer-centred actions,and new payment options,can help to assess and reduce both TL and NTL.This can be done in cost-effective ways,thus ensuring available capacity is efficiently used,improving the quality of supply,boosting billing accuracy,and increasing payment collection.In turn,reducing both los

224、ses and operational and management costs for utilities can lower consumer bills.By investing in smart meter deployment,with over 45 million units deployed globally between 2001 2022,network automation and digitalisation,Enel has improved the efficiency of distribution networks in many systems around

225、 the world.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|36 IEA.CC BY 4.0.There are also gains to be had in advanced economies.In Italy,this has contributed to a considerable drop in the average number of minutes of service interr

226、uption annually,corresponding to just 42 minutes in 2022,as well as loss reduction by more than 20%from 6%in 2014 to 4.7%in 2022.When placed throughout networks,sensors provide realtime measurements and help uncover the dynamics of electricity flows.In Pakistan,the Peshawar Electric Supply Company t

227、ested a system to monitor and control distribution transformers,and achieved line loss reduction of 6.7%.Since 2005,the Ugandan utility Umeme has doubled the size of its distribution network,increased its customer base sixfold to around 1.6 million customers and reached over 99%payment recovery for

228、electricity sold,while also more than halving losses from 38%to 17%.In Kenya,a telecom provider is planning to supply 330 000 smart meters via the build,own,operate,transfer(BOOT)model to Kenya Electricity customers.The overarching goal is to reduce both technical losses costing nearly USD 90 millio

229、n annually,and non-technical losses valued at over USD 160 million each year.Countering informal connections and reducing non-technical losses By significantly reducing non-technical losses,digitally enabled devices are substantially improving the profitability of utilities.However,digital devices a

230、lone are insufficient to achieve such gains:in parallel,utilise typically need to implement procedures to monitor and intervene where necessary.Early trials to use digital prepaid meters to reduce non-payment of electricity by users demonstrate this point.In Ghana,evidence shows that installing smar

231、t meters did not,by itself,reduce theft;additional intervention was needed in the form of monitoring and enforcement.A subsequent study in 2019 of a smart pre-pay meters programme reported an increase in customer bills of over 13%,demonstrating reduced NTL.Monitoring consumption data is one means of

232、 reducing losses from meter bypassing but,similarly,it is applicable only if customers are metered in the first place.Traditional methods can also be used to further reduce NTL.Arial bundled/bunched cables(ABCs)for example,are insulated conductors can be installed on overhead distribution lines to p

233、revent the“hooking”that leads to NTL.Providing formal distribution systems to many locations may not be economic without heavy subsidies,as revenues from average consumption would be less than the fixed cost of the installation.There could be a case,however,for providing grants to support basic supp

234、ly as a means of reducing excessive NTL and to begin formalising electricity distribution in districts with historically high Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|37 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Decreasing outages and achieving faster r

235、estoration By installing multiple sensors on lines and assets,utilities can rapidly locate faults.In turn,automated systems can reroute electricity to where it is needed while limiting areas affected by outages.In fact,automated systems can react more quickly than human operators,promptly isolating

236、parts of the grid that are experiencing issues before problems spread and affect more customers.In Ghana,use of GIS,outage management systems,and automation and control on medium voltage lines resulted in a 15fold reduction in the number of hours of average outage duration for each customer served i

237、n Accra.Colombia aims to reduce electricity outages in locations with a high proportion of overhead lines from around 30 hours per user per year to about 5 hours by 2030 through the use of“self-healing”auto-reclosing circuit breakers while also reducing the duration of transient faults using supervi

238、sory control and data acquisition(SCADA)and other methods of communication.Similarly,a smart grid demonstration project in Haryana state in India sought to identify opportunities to improve the reliability of electricity supply.It showed that a combination of hardware such as circuit breakers and lo

239、ad break switches,and grid reconfiguration analytics in a SCADA system could significantly reduce the duration and frequency of outages by 6.7%for SAIDI(System Average Interruption Duration Index)and 23.5%for SAIFI(System Average Interruption Frequency Index).In Florida,installation of self-healing

240、technologies helped Duke Energy automatically restore more than 160 000 customers during a recent electrical storm,saving nearly 3.3 million hours of total lost outage time.Sensors can also help detect stress on system assets,signalling the need to divert electricity or reduce consumption to avoid c

241、ongestion or outages.PMUs,for example,provide synchronised,real-time measurement of multiple remote points in the grid.As PMUs have a high cost,“right-sizing”their use is critical.Analysis of the transmission infrastructure in Kenya showed that it was possible to reduce the number of PMUs needed nat

242、ionwide from 31 to 26 units,thus minimising losses.Such an approach would help prevent overloading electricity networks and reduce outages.In a 2019 study of 11 smart grid pilot projects in India,all reported reduced electricity losses between 1%and 15%.In Delhi,Tata Power-DDL managed to reduce loss

243、es from 53%in 2002 to around 8%in 2020 using a combination of advanced distribution management systems,integrated GIS,smart meters,automated demand response and field force automation,in addition to network upgrades to replace old and inefficient cables,transformers and other equipment.Unlocking Sma

244、rt Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|38 IEA.CC BY 4.0.potential expenditure without lowering the quality of service.In Brazil,synchronised data from PMUs and SCADA provides real-time analysis to support decision making for enhanced mo

245、nitoring of auxiliary services in the electricity market.This also improves electricity monitoring and operation,transmission capacity,and reliability of grid operation.In many situations,advanced monitoring and controls make it possible to balance electricity loads,troubleshoot and resolve issues w

246、ithout the need for direct interventions by technicians.Digital technologies can also uncover vital insights that analogue approaches cannot and trigger much faster reactions,thereby lowering losses and damages.For instance,Elvira,one of Northern Europes largest electricity companies,uses smart grid

247、 technologies to monitor unexpected changes and react before equipment fails,outages happen or fires start.With sensors and other smart technologies,operators also have more control over electricity distribution.Energy can be monitored all the way down the line,from when it leaves the electricity pl

248、ant to when it arrives at the customer.In India,Powergrid and Adani Transmission Limited have developed integrated centralised dashboards that capture general,system-related information across a broad spectrum of parameters.Remote monitoring systems have also been installed to capture data with a hi

249、gh level of granularity on system availability,tripping and outages,which makes it possible to supervise design and respond to situations in a fraction of a second.Advanced metering infrastructure(AMI)provides utilities with granular visibility on electricity consumption in terms of magnitude,time a

250、nd place.As such,it can enable the mapping of consumption patterns and projections that can be used to develop effective demand-response programmes.In parallel,smart meters reduce costs for labour to manually record consumption while also enabling the digital environment to provide customers with ch

251、oices,including a variety of tariffs and incentives to provide demand-side flexibility.Smart meters can identify events that change how owners of rooftop solar consume or store their generation.Importantly,they can also reveal opportunities to implement new business models.Unlocking Smart Grid Oppor

252、tunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|39 IEA.CC BY 4.0.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Smoothing out demand is increasingly important in systems that are growing quickly,while simultaneously aiming to decarbonise.Digital technologies can help shift,store or shape el

253、ectricity demand according to the available capacity of production,transmission and distribution assets,which is increasingly important in systems that are decarbonising.They can help shift energy demand towards times of high levels of VRE production,thereby reducing curtailment.Virtual electricity

254、plants are networks of decentralised generation combined with flexible loads and storage systems that can remotely and automatically,manage demand as well as DERs to provide clean energy and grid services while also meeting customers energy needs in a reliable manner.They can help reduce peak demand

255、 and related investment in additional capacity and infrastructure to serve a peak load.Such plants are increasingly being deployed across the world,with most to date in Europe,Australia and the United States.For regions and grids at earlier stages of implementing distributed generation,if the goal r

256、emains Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|40 IEA.CC BY 4.0.providing system-level benefits,these private aggregators can fill gaps where the rate and scale of performance of new models for consumers to use distributed g

257、eneration have previously lagged.Enabling energy access at a lower cost Digitally enabled mobile communications technologies play a crucial role in expanding decentralised,clean energy access to communities in remote locations particularly in challenging climates or low-income areas not currently se

258、rviced by electricity grids.Globally,at least 19 000 mini-grids are installed in 134 countries,providing electricity to about 47 million people.These small electric grid systems are usually comprised of a generation units and distribution lines that link a number of households and/or other consumers

259、.Typically,these systems are not connected to main electricity networks.However,even on mini-grids,technologies such as smart inverters can help automatically monitor and manage electricity delivery and reduce service interruptions during peak demand while increasing productive use of electricity du

260、ring lower demand.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Digitally enabled mini-grid solutions offer effective opportunities to provide energy access.Mobile off-grid solar systems with batteries,for example,can provide efficient and fast access in remote locations.In favourable geographies,standalone solar systems can provi

261、de enough electricity to cover basic needs.Potential exists for digital solutions to provide more resilient supply by further expanding and enabling more efficient mini-grids and larger,standalone Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Ec

262、onomies PAGE|41 IEA.CC BY munity assets with islanding capabilities which enable the“islanded”section to continue operating when there are outages elsewhere in the grid.In Tanzania,mini-grids achieve 98%reliability compared with 47%for the national grid.In Cambodia,the company Okrasolar undertook a

263、solar peer-to-peer“mesh-grid”project to connect 140 households in 3 villages,generating enough electricity to support also providing fridges,rice cookers,kettles and food blenders.A cloud-based,mobile-enabled application connects to the system,which uses internet of things(IoT)connectivity to optimi

264、se the distribution of electricity among connected properties.The app can also be used to pay for energy or to identify issues with the system.These systems have also been deployed in Haiti,Nigeria and the Philippines.In Bangladesh,Solshare uses a similar digitally enabled,peer-to-peer platform with

265、 more than 115 mini-grids,supplying over 1 500 customers and 300 electric three-wheelers while reducing CO2 emissions by 142 Mt annually.In Uganda,due to good progress in recent years almost 60%of the population now has access to electricity,of which around half of those are grid-connected,and the o

266、ther half are supplied by off-grid means.A new model is being trialled to accelerate the electrification of remote communities where demand is low,and costs for connection to the distribution grid would be prohibitive for prospective customers.A recent pilot project,called Utilities 2.0,has demonstr

267、ated the potential for private developers to fund remote mini-grid projects that will be operated using digital meters monitored by the national distribution system operator(DSO)Umeme.Importantly,the local network will be installed to the utilitys technical standards.This has the benefit minimising

268、costs for customers while guaranteeing interoperability to enable easy integration to the grid-connected distribution system in the future.This could cut by half the cost of connecting the final 10 million people to the grid,currently estimated at USD 7 billion.Remote monitoring can also facilitate

269、management of isolated renewable electricity plants.Since 2018,the National Thermal Power Corporation(NTPC,Indias largest electricity utility)has had the capabilities to remotely operate the 800-MW Koldam hydroelectricity plant in Himachal Pradesh from its control centre in Delhi some 300 km away.Bo

270、osting resilience to prepare for the future Upgrading electricity grids can be challenging in some countries,where mapping of electrical infrastructure can be incomplete or inaccurate.Without such knowledge,it becomes difficult and costly to make informed investment decisions to expand and modernise

271、 electric grid infrastructure.Digital technologies can also provide advanced planning tools and approaches that enhance resilience for electricity grids.Key areas of current development include improving visibility and multi-scale and multi-objective modelling;integrated planning approaches across g

272、eneration,transmission,distribution,and Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|42 IEA.CC BY 4.0.customer or third-party systems;granular,DER forecasting tools;scenario analysis tools;and inclusion of resilience as a plannin

273、g objective.Multiple entities have made progress in recent years in improving asset and system visibility through diverse platforms.The World Bank funded Africa Electricity Grids Explorer records some locations of high voltage transmission and distribution lines by leveraging OpenStreetMap,satellite

274、 imaging and GPS analysis.Much greater granularity is required for spatial analysis to identify weaknesses and improve stability.Open-source data sets and tools can support electricity access planning and help to target loss-reduction measures.In Lamwo district in Uganda,Sunbird AI is helping the Mi

275、nistry of Energy to identify electrification needs and options for enabling access using Googles Open Buildings,population data and existing national data sets.Open Buildings also includes data from countries in South and Southeast Asia such as Bangladesh,Indonesia,Laos,Nepal,the Philippines,Singapo

276、re,Sri Lanka,Thailand and Viet Nam.The Clean Energy Access Tool,developed by the European Union,gathers granular geospatial data on electricity infrastructure and demographics to support electricity access decision making.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunit

277、y in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|43 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Modelling and simulation tools can help grid planners analyse data and project future demand patterns.This allows them to make decisions on capacity expansions or upgrades,resulting in more efficient and cost-effective grid plannin

278、g.Digital technologies,through multi-scale modelling,can also help optimise the costs associated with grid planning by identifying optimal locations for new transmission lines or substations and minimising the costs associated with construction,maintenance and operations.These technologies can also

279、help grid planners assess and manage the risks associated with planning exercises.Simulation tools can be used to evaluate the impact of future extreme weather events,identify potential vulnerabilities in grid systems and develop plans to mitigate those risks.Technologies can also improve communicat

280、ion between grid planners,operators and stakeholders.Involving market design processes in integrated planning is important to have a positive feedback loop of what is needed,who needs to deliver it and how to better incentivise behaviour to achieve those goals.Real-time data and analytics can be sha

281、red with stakeholders to help them understand grid performance and plan accordingly.Digital technologies can help grid planners improve grid resilience.Modelling tools can simulate the impact of disruptions and identify areas or specific points at which backup electricity or other resilience measure

282、s are needed.Digital technologies can also increase resilience in more immediate ways.Early warning systems that collect and analyse multiple,real-time data sets provide utilities and other stakeholders with more time to prepare for and react to the ravages of extreme weather events.Advanced monitor

283、ing and control systems can help recovery and ensure faster reconnection of electricity for critical infrastructures or vulnerable populations,including by better scheduling restoration crews.Advanced image processing and artificial intelligence(AI)can help identify overgrown vegetation and equipmen

284、t defaults from pictures collected,for example,by drones.In India,the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation(NHPC)has launched a cloud-based software application with real-time data from the Indian Meteorological Department.By monitoring river water levels and discharges upstream and downstream of

285、 hydroelectricity plants,it serves as an early warning system that can issue warnings to allow relevant stakeholders to act.The NHPC is also planning to set up a central control room facility to monitor hydroelectric projects and plants.Paving the way for higher shares of variable renewables Digital

286、 technologies such as renewable energy forecasting tools and advanced distribution system management(ADMS)can reduce the cost of installing and integrating renewable electricity generation.Forecasting and ADMS help improve Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging

287、 Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|44 IEA.CC BY 4.0.the productivity of renewable electricity generators.Data and analysis can also help optimise siting of renewable energy projects to improve productivity and grid integration.Egypt,with the support of a range of international initiatives and or

288、ganisations,developed a high-resolution solar atlas to help guide future investments and develop plans for efficient exploitation of solar energy.In turn,the atlas helped secure funding of USD 2.2 billion for solar projects.Improved data and analytics can also enhance the productivity of other renew

289、able energy assets.In India,a demonstration project using analytics of atmospheric and operational data in a wind farm boosted output by 1-3%,depending on wind speed.The additional information provides guidance for adjusting the orientation of wind turbines in a co-ordinated way to avoid the wake ef

290、fect.Better data and modelling can also reduce errors associated with forecasting,as well as with product and project design.Vortex,a company specialising in wind modelling,has developed tools that enable error reduction by 3-4%.Preparing for the data revolution The number of smart power meters worl

291、dwide exceeded 1 billion in 2022,a 10-fold increase since 2010.Meanwhile,connected devices with automated controls and sensors are expected to reach 13 billion in 2023,up from less than a billion a decade ago.This number could exceed 25 billion in 2030.In addition,there are a range of other data sou

292、rces that can in combination provide insights to enable enhanced electricity system planning and operation.Leveraging the full potential of digital solutions rests on the success of data management frameworks and strategies.Data needs to be collected,stored,analysed,and shared,while ensuring privacy

293、 and cybersecurity.Good data management can be beneficial for power systems in many ways.Granular data on consumption,combined with better demand forecasts,allows connected and automated consumer appliances(such as water heaters or electric vehicle chargers)to provide flexibility for the power syste

294、m:by turning off at peak time or switching on when renewable output is high,they facilitate the integration of renewables,resolve grid congestion,and reduce peak consumption.Moreover,easily accessible high-quality data on consumption and power systems can also help commercial parties develop new ser

295、vices and products for power customers.It also speeds up power restoration after faults.While large amounts of data can bring many benefits to electricity grids,current data sets are not being fully exploited and insufficient efforts are made to access and analyse new data.Globally,smart meter data

296、utilisation is still below its potential,with only 2%to 4%of data available currently being used to enhance Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|45 IEA.CC BY 4.0.the efficiency of grid operations.A survey of 10 Transmissi

297、on system operators(TSO)shows that most agree their control rooms do not make full use of data analytic applications,even when they have fully digitalised grids equipped with sensors and remote control.The energy system is collecting more data than ever,but too much of it remains idle,or stuck in si

298、loed storage,with significant untapped potential.There are a range of areas that require attention to ensure more effective use of data including:Data security:As more data are generated and transmitted across grids,the risk of cyberattacks and data breaches increases,which could potentially comprom

299、ise grid security and reliability.Data management:Managing and processing large amounts of data can require significant investments in data storage,processing and analysis capabilities.Privacy concerns:The collection and use of large amounts of data can raise questions among consumers about how thei

300、r data are being used and who has access to it.Interoperability:With the increasing number of data sources and systems on grids,additional effort is needed to ensure interoperability among different systems and platforms.Human error:While digitalisation can enable greater automation of tasks on the

301、grid,it can also change the risk of human error,as operators and technicians may be required to manage increasingly complex and sophisticated systems.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities The digitalisation opportunity in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies PAGE|46 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sys

302、tematic approaches and national initiatives can start to effectively address data challenges and help unlock opportunities.The UK government,the electricity regulator Ofgem and Innovate UK set up the Energy Data Task Force to develop an integrated data and digital strategy for the energy sector in 2

303、018.The task force,in its recommendations released in 2019,highlighted that progress towards modern energy systems is hindered by poor quality,inaccurate or missing data and outlined actions needed to tackle these problems.Following these recommendations,in 2021,the Energy Digitalisation Task Force

304、was established to continue to support progress towards effective use of data for clean and affordable energy.Digital tools for data access and use can also be leveraged to stimulate innovation and develop low-cost solutions.The Government of Ghana and the Millennium Challenge Corporation(MCC)are in

305、vesting in increasing the quality of the electric grid to reduce outages.MCC partnered with a UC Berkeley team to pilot new technologies as a way to crowdsource grid measurements using smartphones(ElectricityWatch)and low-cost,fixed-point sensors.Utilising these two sensing methodologies in conjunct

306、ion with cellular networks,the team successfully piloted a uniquely scalable grid monitoring system to answer questions about when and where outages occur,how long they last and whether infrastructure improvement investments increase reliability.Programmes and platforms can also be created to identi

307、fy challenges and support innovative ideas to tackle them,such as hackathons and competitions.The data science platform Zindi works with stakeholders across Africa to develop challenges based on current issues and shared datasets,which data scientists can help to solve.The Tunisian Company of Electr

308、icity and Gas organised an AI hackathon event to help reduce the USD 60 million worth of NTL each year.By using advanced ML techniques,researchers were able to study data and ascertain that they could locate anomalies with a high level of confidence.By applying this technique to real-time,smart mete

309、r data,it is possible to alert utilities for rapid investigation.The Brazilian independent system operator has been promoting hackathon events that apply statistical and ML techniques to help foster its forecasting frameworks of hydroelectricity inflows,wind,and load.There is a range of other option

310、s in terms of crowd sourcing.Meter Hero targets schools and communities,providing both learning opportunities and data insights.In South Africa,to bridge current gaps,ESKOM is using a digital platform to crowdsource people with mechanical,nuclear,electrical,system,operations,and maintenance skills a

311、nd expertise.Mobile phone applications and text message notifications can help both to inform and to gather information from consumers on ongoing outages to resolve the issue.The Urja Mitra initiative in India provides a web-based and mobile outage management platform for more than 50 distribution c

312、ompanies.This delivers real-time outage information and is integrated with the meter data acquisition system in order to allow field staff to more effectively intervene and restore electricity.Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities How to get investments to flow in emerging markets and developing econom

313、ies PAGE|47 IEA.CC BY 4.0.How to get investments to flow Grid investment is lagging Investment in electricity network infrastructure has been lagging in recent years,which poses multiple challenges to meet current demand and prepare for the significant ramp-up required in the coming decades.The shif

314、t towards deeply decarbonised electricity systems necessitates a re-thinking of how grids operate,which could guide investment decisions.In developing economies,most investments will need to be directed towards expanding and strengthening the grid,while also shifting towards smarter and more resilie

315、nt distribution grids to accommodate the increased deployment of new cooling,heating and electrified transport technologies.Global average annual investment in the power sector by category,2011-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0 Note:Investment is measured as ongoing capital spending on new power capacity;all numb

316、ers throughout are in 2022 USD;Fossil fuel power includes unabated and abated power;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;2023e=estimated values for 2023.The IEA estimates that the annual average investment in grids needs to more than double from an estimated USD 330 billion in 2023 to arou

317、nd USD 750 billion6 by 2030.Currently,over 75%of total global investments in grid digitalisation are directed to distribution grids with the aim to expand,strengthen,and enhance the reliability and flexibility of the grid.However,while investments in grids have increased globally,jumping 8%in 2022,t

318、he share of investments in grids in 6 Based on IEA(2022),Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,World Energy Outlook 2022.10%20%30%40%50%250 500 7501 0001 2200222023eBillion USD(2022)Battery storageElectricity gridsNuclearFossil fuel powerRenewable powerEMDEs excl.China(shar

319、e,right axis)Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities How to get investments to flow in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|48 IEA.CC BY 4.0.EMDEs have fallen in the last decade.This is a worrying trend when electricity demand in EMDE is expected to grow substantially.While each country has its

320、 own specificity,challenges related to high perceived risk and cost of capital,as well as to poor financial health of utilities,are hindering investment in grids across many countries.After the surge in 2021 and 2022,many critical mineral prices started to moderate in 2023 but remain well above the

321、historical averages.In 2022,copper and aluminium represented around 30%of the cost of new grid investment,10%higher than in the investments made between 2010 and 2020.Current inflation levels are increasing the cost of clean energy technologies such as solar PV modules,batteries and inverters.The co

322、sts of solar and hybrid minigrids are estimated to have increased by more than 20%on average in 2022;the market price of solar home systems increased by around 30%since 2020.Combined with local currency depreciation,this could discourage investment in affected countries.Public-private partnerships i

323、nvestment in energy projects and external debt stocks in EMDE countries,2011-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on World Bank(2023).According to the Inter-American Development Bank,to ensure universal access to electricity by 2030,Latin America and the Caribbean would need to invest more t

324、han USD 25 billion in new infrastructure,mainly at distribution networks level of which 80%is in urban areas.In addition,around USD 64 billion is needed to maintain and replace distribution grid assets in the region.In India,investment in grids has trended downwards in recent years,from more than ha

325、lf of electricity 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20001920202021USD TrillionUSD BillionUSD billion PPP investmentsUSD trillion external debtUnlocking Smart Grid Opportunities How to get investments to flow in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|49

326、 IEA.CC BY 4.0.investment in 2015 to around one-third in 2020,reflecting the challenging financial situation of distribution companies.Globally,in addition to investments in grids to maximise the potential for digitalisation,over USD 400 billion is needed for universal digital connectivity by 2030,w

327、ith India alone requiring almost USD 100 billion.The governments of many emerging markets and developing economies are under the increasing strain of debt,which has doubled in the last decade,much of it owed externally.The unprecedented challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic have added to these economi

328、c woes with a global slowdown that has pushed many countries further towards debt distress.As national debt has risen in many emerging markets and developing economies in the last two decades,in parallel the corresponding volume of investments from public-private partnerships(PPPs)which can be used

329、to minimise increasing national debt burdens have plummeted by around two-thirds.Additionally,many of these recent private investments have focused on the generation side rather than improving electricity grids.Average annual investment in the power sector by geography and category,2011-2023e IEA.CC

330、 BY 4.0.Note:REP=renewable power;FFP=fossil fuel power;batteries are excluded here;2023e=estimated values for 2023.The energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine has created further disarray,just as many nations began to recover from the pandemic-related economic slowdown,which led to se

331、vere disruptions in financial markets,increased risk aversion among investors,and reduced economic projections.These two events also led to an increase in public debt,putting a number of countries at risk and further deteriorating investment prospects.Extreme weather 50 100 150 200 250 300REPGridsFF

332、PNuclearREPGridsFFPNuclearREPGridsFFPNuclearAdvanced economiesChinaOther EMDEsBillion USD(2022)-202021-23eUnlocking Smart Grid Opportunities How to get investments to flow in emerging markets and developing economies PAGE|50 IEA.CC BY 4.0.events related to climate change are becoming more

333、 frequent and severe and could result in further government debt increase.Such endogenous and exogenous pressures on national budgets further reduce the availability of public funds to invest in among others,the critical physical and digital electricity infrastructure needed to reach universal access to electricity and energy security,thus leaving a widening spending gap.This calls for identifying