1、2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind energy in Europewindeurope.orgWind energy in Europe2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Published in February 2023Chapter name4WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027DISCLAIMERThis report summarises ne

2、w installations and financing activity in Europes wind farms from 1 January to 31 December 2022.It also analyses how European markets will develop in the next five years(2023 to 2024).The outlook is based on WindEurope internal analysis and consultation with its members.The data represents gross ins

3、tallations per site and country unless otherwise stated.Rounding of figures is at the discretion of the author.This publication contains information collected on a regular basis throughout the year and then verified with relevant mem-bers of the industry ahead of publication.Neither WindEurope,nor i

4、ts members,nor their related entities are,by means of this publication,rendering professional advice or services.Neither WindEurope nor its members shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication.TEXT AND ANALYSIS:Giuseppe CostanzoGuy Brindley Phil

5、 ColeEDITOR:Rory OSullivan,WindEuropeDESIGN:Laia Mir,WindEuropePHOTO COVER:ShutterstockACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:WindEurope acknowledges the kind cooperation of the following associations and institutions:EDORA and ODE(BE)/RES Croatia(HR)/Green Power Denmark(DK)/Tuuleenergia(EE)/Suomen Tuulivoimayhdistys ry(

6、FI)/FEE(FR)/BWE,VDMA,Deutsche WindGuard(DE)/HWEA(EL)/WEI(IE)/Elettricit Futura,ANEV(IT)/LWEA(LV)/LWPA(LT)/Ministry of Energy and Spatial Planning(LU)/NWEA(NL)/Fornybar Norge(NO)/PWEA(PL)/APREN(PT)/RWEA(RO)/RES Serbia(RS)/SAPI(SK)/Svensk Vindenergi(SE)/AEE(ES)/TREB(TK)/UWEA(UA)/RenewableUK(UK).MORE I

7、NFORMATION:policywindeurope.orgExecutive summary 71.Wind power in 2022 131.1 Overview 131.2 Installations 141.3 Decommissioning and repowering 171.4 Power generation 181.5 Turbine sizes 231.6 Auction and tenders 242.Wind power in Europe:The full picture 292.1 Europes total wind power capacity 292.2

8、Decommissioning and repowering trends 312.3 Turbine trends 332.4 Power generation trends 343.Market outlook 2023-2027 373.1 WindEuropes Outlook Scenarios 373.2 Repowering 464.Reaching 2030 energy and climate targets 494.1 REPowerEU scenario 494.2 European country targets 534.3 How to deliver 54Annex

9、 1 57Annex 2 58ContentsChapter name6WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-20277Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeExecutive SummaryEurope installed 19 GW of new wind power capacity in 2022.This was 4%more than in 2021

10、.The EU-27 installed 16 GW,up 40%on 2021 but still below what the EU should be building to meet its 2030 Climate and Energy goals.87%of the new wind installations in Europe were onshore,with Germany,Sweden,and Finland building the most.Almost half the offshore installations were in the UK,and France

11、 installed its first large offshore wind farm.EUROPE NOW HAS 255 GWOF WIND CAPACITYExecutive summaryFIGURE A.New onshore and offshore wind installations in Europe in 2022Source:WindEuropeGermanySpainUKFranceSwedenTurkeyItalyPolandAustriaIrelandFinlandBelgiumNorwayOthersOnshore2,403 2,441 2,430 1,590

12、5021,6591,5372328303280546Offshore342004801,60000005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000New installations(MW)NetherlandsGermany14%Sweden13%Finland13%France11%UK9%Spain8%Others32%WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Executive Summary8We expect E

13、urope to install 129 GW of new wind farms over the period 2023-2027,and the EU-27 to install 98 GW of that.Three quarters of the new capacity additions over 2023-27 will be onshore.We expect the EU to build 20 GW of new wind farms a year on average over 2023-2027.The EU should be building over 30 GW

14、 a year of new wind on average to meet its 2030 targets.Permitting bottlenecks remain the biggest barrier to the expansion of wind energy.But Governments are now working actively to tackle these,and the new REPowerEU rules will help.Investments in new wind farms fell in 2022.Europe announced 17bn of

15、 new investments which covers 12 GW of new capacity that will be built this year and beyond.This was less than half the amount invested in 2021.Not a single large-scale offshore wind farm reached a final investment decision.Two factors caused this:(a)high inflation in input costs which is insufficie

16、ntly reflected in developers reve-nues;and(b)unhelpful market interventions by National Governments which undermined investor confidence.FIGURE B.2023-2027 new onshore and offshore wind installations in Europe WindEuropes scenariosSource:WindEurope200224202520262027Capacity(GW)

17、OnshoreOffshoreCentral Scenario2030 Targets Scenario0554045509Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeExecutive Summary2022 Annual figures Europe installed 19.1 GW of new wind power capacity in 2022(gross installations).This was 4%up on 2021.16.1 GW

18、 of the new installations were in the EU-27.Onshore wind made up 87%of the new installations with 16.7 GW.In the EU-27 onshore represented 92%.New offshore wind installations in Europe were 2.5 GW.Europes wind farms generated 487 TWh of electricity in 2022.This covered 17%of the electricity demand i

19、n the EU-27+UK.Investment in new wind farms fell in 2022.Europe announced 17bn of new investments which covers 12 GW of new capacity that will be built this year and beyond.This was less than half the amount invested in 2021.Total installed capacity Europe now has 255 GW of installed wind power capa

20、city:225 GW onshore and 30 GW offshore.The EU-27 has 204 GW installed.188 GW onshore and 16 GW offshore.Performance of new wind farms The anticipated capacity factors of the new onshore wind farms built in Europe in 2022 is 30-45%.And around 50%for offshore wind.The average power rating of new onsho

21、re turbines was 4.1 MW.For offshore wind it was 8.0 MW.Country highlights Germany installed the most wind power capacity in 2022(2.7 GW).88%of that was onshore wind.Sweden(2.4 GW),Finland(2.4 GW),France(2.1 GW),the UK and Spain(each with 1.7 GW)came next.Denmark and Ireland had the highest share of

22、wind in their electricity mix with 55%and 34%respectively.Wind met more than 20%of the electricity demand in another five countries:the UK(28%),Germany(26%),Portugal(26%),Spain and Sweden(both 25%).Despite the war Ukraine installed 83 MW of new capacity.75%of its total installed capacity of 1.8 GW i

23、s currently out of operation.2023-2027 Outlook We expect Europe to install 129 GW of new wind power capacity over the next five years.We expect the EU to install 98 GW of this,19.6 GW a year on average.We expect 74%of the new installations in Europe over 2023-27 to be onshore.The EU needs to build o

24、n average 31 GW a year to 2030 to meet the REPowerEU renewable energy goals.Governments are working to address the permitting issues that have caused construction bottlenecks over the past few years and policies are being introduced that could help streamline the process of approving spatial and pla

25、nning requirements for wind farms.This effort needs to be accelerated if Europe is to meet its energy and climate targets.The EUs upcoming Electricity Market Design revision has to restore investor confidence.It must make clear that EU emergence measures are temporary.Contracts-for-Difference(CfDs)w

26、ill be crucial for new investments.But investors must be allowed to finance their projects with Power Purchase Agreements(PPAs)and on a purely merchant basis if they prefer.Old wind farms and repowering Europe decommissioned 454 MW of wind capacity in 2022.At the same time,it commissioned 591 MW of

27、repowered capacity.The net new capacity additions were 18.7 GW.About 5.6 GW is expected to be decommissioned over the next five years.We expect 3.2 GW of this to be repowered(leading to 5.2 GW of repowered capacity).The remaining 2.4 GW will be fully decommissioned and removed from the system.Repowe

28、ring wind farms on average trebles the output whilst reducing the number of turbines by 25%.1.Referred to as capacity under repowering.WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Executive Summary10EU-27New installations in 2022(MW)Cumulative capacity(MW)Share of

29、wind in power mix in 2022OnshoreOffshoreTotalOnshoreOffshoreTotalOnshoreOffshoreTotalAustria328-3283,586-3,58612%-12%Belgium303-3033,0452,2615,3065%8%13%Bulgaria-707-7074%-4%Croatia-1,100-1,10013%-13%Cyprus-158-1586%-6%Czechia-337-3371%-1%Denmark131-1314,9742,3087,28231%25%55%Estonia-320-3208%-8%Fin

30、land2,430-2,4305,607715,67814%-14%France1,5904802,07020,65348221,1358%-8%Germany2,4033422,74558,2678,05566,32221%5%26%Greece230-2304,682-4,68219%-19%Hungary-329-3291%-1%Ireland280-2804,612254,63734%-34%Italy4963052611,8183011,8487%0%7%Latvia59-59137-1373%-3%Lithuania69-69740-74012%-12%Luxembourg29-2

31、9166-166-Malta-Netherlands9333691,3026,2232,8299,05212%7%19%Poland1,517-1,5177,864-7,86411%-11%Portugal28-285,671255,69626%0%26%Romania-3,029-3,02912%-12%Slovakia-3-30%-0%Slovenia-3-30%-0%Spain1,659-1,65929,793529,79825%-25%Sweden2,441-2,44114,39319214,58525%-25%Total EU-2714,9271,22116,148188,21616

32、,283204,49914%2%16%2.All numbers are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals.3.The impact of the war in Ukraine is unknown.TABLE 1.New additions,total wind capacity and the share of wind in the electricity demand in 2022 2 311Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I

33、WindEuropeExecutive SummaryOthersNew installations in 2022(MW)Cumulative capacity(MW)Share of wind in power mix in 2022OnshoreOffshoreTotalOnshoreOffshoreTotalOnshoreOffshoreTotalAlbania-Belarus-3-3-Bosnia&Herzegovina-135-135-Faroe Islands-68-68-Iceland-3-3-Kosovo-137-137-Liechtenstein-Montenegro-11

34、8-118-North Macedonia-37-37-Norway372604325,083665,14911%-11%Russia-2,043-2,043-Serbia-374-374-Switzerland-87-870%-0%Turkey867-86711,969-11,96911%-11%UK5021,1791,68114,57513,91828,49312%15%28%Ukraine-1,673-1,673-Total others1,7411,2392,98036,30513,98450,289-Total Europe16,6682,46019,128224,52130,267

35、254,78814%3%17%Chapter name12WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-20271.“We connected 19 GW of new wind farms to the electricity grid in 2022.In many ways this is good news especially given the challenges we face as an industry.But the reality is that we need t

36、o be installing much more for Europe to meet its climate and energy goals for 2030”Giles DicksonChief Executive Officer,WindEurope13Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Power in 20221.1 OverviewNew wind installations in Europe totalled 19.1 GW in 2022,

37、with 16.7 GW of wind capacity installed onshore and 2.5 GW offshore.Despite the challenging economic environment and supply chain difficulties,this was a record year for installations in Europe with an increase of 4%compared with the previous year.However,installations fell short of our realistic ex

38、pectations scenario from 2021 by 12%and were well below the rates requited to meet Europes climate and energy goals.For the EU to reach a 45%renewable energy target by 2030,wind energy installations need to average 31 GW per year between 2023 and 2030.This is based on an installed wind power capacit

39、y target of 440 GW(see section 4.1).Wind farm installations in Germany were the highest in Europe in 2022 with almost 90%of the installed capacity onshore,continuing the trend of recovering installation rates.The offshore wind farm Kaskasi(342 MW)was con-nected to the grid giving Germany a total ins

40、tallations figure of 2.7 GW.Sweden and Finland(2.4 GW each)and France(2.1 GW),including its first large-scale offshore wind farm Saint Nazaire(480 MW),all saw record capacity installations.There were also record installations in Poland(1.5 GW).These installations represent some of the last projects

41、permitted before the introduction of the 10H rule(which restricts the building of onshore wind farms)in 2016.Future installations will grind to a halt if the law is not abolished.The Polish Government should reform the 10H rule and introduce a 500m setback distance in line with European standards.Of

42、fshore wind accounted for 13%of installations in Europe with 2.5 GW of wind farm capacity connecting to the grid.Nearly half of the newly connected capacity was in the UK(1.2 GW)with the remainder coming from France(0.5 GW),the Netherlands(0.4 GW),Germany(0.3 GW)and Italy with its first offshore win

43、d farm Beleolico(30 MW).In 2022 new wind installations in the EU-27 totalled 16.1 GW,representing 84%of all installations in Europe.Wind power in 2022FIGURE 1.New onshore and offshore wind installations in EuropeSource:WindEurope05320002020212022Capacity(GW)Onshore11

44、.111.710.812.314.19.512.012.115.416.7Offshore1.61.53.01.53.22.73.72.92.92.514WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind Power in 2022Outside the EU,the 3 GW installed were attributable to the UK(1.7 GW),Turkey(0.9 GW)and Norway(0.4 GW).There were 0.5 GW of d

45、ecommissioned wind capacity in 2022,so net installations in Europe(installed minus decom-missioned capacity)totalled 18.6 GW.Astonishingly there were 83 MW of new wind energy installations in Ukraine.The tragic war there has led to some destruction of several wind turbines and approximately 1.3 GW o

46、r 75%of its installed capacity was out of operation at the end of 2022,but not destroyed.Given the uncertainty of the situation,data from the region has not been included in the 2022 annual statistics for Europe.1.2 InstallationsGermany installed the most new wind power capacity in 2022 with 2.7 GW.

47、2.4 GW was onshore,up from 1.9 GW in 2021.Additionally,Germany connected 342 MW of offshore wind capacity in the North Seas,all from the Kaskasi offshore wind farm.0.3 GW of old wind farm capacity was decommissioned.Sweden set a new national record for installations in a single year with 2.4 GW,up f

48、rom 2.1 GW in 2021.This was the most onshore wind capacity installed in Europe,equal with Finland.Finland also saw a record year for installations,with them also installing 2.4 GW onshore in 2022,almost four times the installation figure in 2021(0.7 GW).France installed a record 2.1 GW of wind power

49、 capacity,of which 1.6 GW was onshore.The remaining 480 MW were installed at Frances first commercial-scale offshore wind farm,Saint NazaireThe UK installed 1.7 GW of wind power capacity,significantly less than the year before when it installed 2.7 GW.Offshore installations totalled 1.2 GW making th

50、e UK the European country with the most offshore wind capacity installed in 2022.Onshore installations were 0.5 GW.Spain installed 1.7 GW of onshore capacity.This was around twice the capacity installed in 2021 and in line with expectations.Poland hit an all-time record,installing 1.5 GW of onshore

51、wind.This was despite the infamous 10H rule which bans the construction of onshore wind farms within a distance of ten times the height of a turbine from residential buildings.The installations represent some of the last projects permitted before the introduction of the law in 2016.Future installa-t

52、ions will grind to a halt if the 10H rule is not abolished.87%OF WIND INSTALLATIONS IN 2022 CAME FROM ONSHORE WINDFIGURE 2.New wind installations in Europe per country in 2022Source:WindEuropeGermanySpainUKFranceSwedenTurkeyItalyPolandAustriaIrelandFinlandBelgiumNorwayOthersOnshore2,403 2,441 2,430

53、1,5905021,6591,5372328303280546Offshore342004801,60000005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000New installations(MW)NetherlandsGermany14%Sweden13%Finland13%France11%UK9%Spain8%Others32%15Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Power in 2022The

54、Netherlands installed a total of 1.3 GW,of which 0.9 GW were onshore and 369 MW were turbines connected at the Hollandse Kust Zuid 1&2 offshore wind farm.Turkey installed 867 MW of onshore wind capacity in 2022,less than half of the record 1.8 GW installed in 20214.Italy installed 0.5 GW,including i

55、ts first offshore wind farm in the waters of Taranto,in the Apulia region.The Beleolico wind farm has 10 turbines and a total capacity of 30 MW.Norway installed 0.5 GW,372 MW of which were installed onshore.The floating offshore wind farm Hywind Tampen connected seven turbines to the grid with a com

56、bined 60 MW.23 countries did not have any wind installations in 20225.10 of these are EU Member States.4.Turkeys 2021 installations have been revised upward from the 1.4 GW previously communicated.5.Including 83 MW installed in Ukraine.FIGURE 3.Distribution of new wind installations by country in 20

57、13-22Source:WindEurope0246802000022Capacity(GW)GermanyUKFranceSwedenTurkeyNetherlandsSpainPolandFinlandNorwayBelgiumOthers16WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind Power in 2022A total of 2.5 GW of offshore capa

58、city was connected to the grid in Europe.There were seven wind farms across six countries connecting turbines to the grid in 2022.The UK commissioned the worlds largest wind farm Hornsea Two(1,386 MW).In 2022 the last 110 turbines(924 MW)were connected to the grid.In addition,the first turbines at S

59、eagreen were connected(27 turbines 255 MW).The total capacity of the project will be 1,075 MW.In France the 480 MW Saint Nazaire wind farm became the countrys first operational commercial-scale offshore wind farm.In the Netherlands and Germany there were 369 MW and 342 MW of capacity connected to th

60、e grids respectively.At Hollandse Kust Zuid 1&2,which will have a total capacity of 760 MW,34 turbines were connected and all 38 turbines were connected at the Kaskasi offshore wind farm.Finally,after 14 years of delays,Italy installed its first offshore wind farm,the 30 MW Beleolico.FIGURE 4.New of

61、fshore wind farms in Europe in 2022Source:WindEuropeBeleolicoItalyHornsea Two9 92 24 4 MMWWSeagreen2 25 55 5 MMWWSaint-Nazaire4 48 80 0 MMWWFrance4 48 80 0 MMWWHollandse Kust Zuid 1&23 36 69 9 MMWWKaskasi3 34 42 2 MMWWGermany3 34 42 2 MMWWHywind TampenNorway6 60 0 MMWW3 30 0 MMWWNetherlands3 36 69 9

62、 MMWWUnited Kingdom1,179 MW30 MW60 MW17Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Power in 20221.3 Decommissioning and repowering454 MW of wind power was decommissioned in 2022.The decommissioning took place in Germany(266 MW),the Netherlands(80 MW6),Austria

63、(39 MW),Denmark(27 MW),Belgium(16 MW),France(16 MW),Finland(9 MW)and the UK(0.5 MW).Out of the 19.1 GW of wind power capacity added in Europe in 2022 only 591 MW were from repowering projects7.Most repowering took place in Germany and Austria with some also taking place in the Netherlands,Belgium an

64、d France.Repowering represents a major opportunity to quickly boost wind energy installations in Europe.Not only do older projects tend to be located in the best wind locations,but asset owners should be very familiar with the site conditions,with many years of operational data.Much of the infra-str

65、ucture is already in place(roads,substations)and there is generally less opposition from local communities(although it is still important to engage local communities given the likely increase in the size of the turbines).6.Provisional information.7.Based on information provided by National Associati

66、ons.Modelling suggests repowering capacity should be greater.Source:WindEuropeFIGURE 5.Decommissioned and repowered capacity in 20220500300350400450GermanyNetherlandsAustriaDenmarkFranceBelgiumFinlandUKCapacity(MW)266803927350112200DecommissionedRepoweredDecommissioning,capacit

67、y under repowering and repowered capacityWind farms have a finite operational lifetime.For the oldest wind farms this is typically in the region of 15 25 years.Newer wind farms,constructed with more modern turbines will likely have longer lifetimes.When the wind farm reaches the end of its opera-tio

68、nal lifetime,assuming its lifetime is not extended by replacing components or blades,the turbines will be shut off,taken down and removed.This is known as decommissioning.Often it will make sense to repower the wind farm since this involves replacing all the turbines,cables and grid connections with

69、 modern turbines and accessories which are more powerful and efficient.The original capacity that is being replaced is known as capacity under repowering.Wind farm capacity that is decommissioned but not repowered is fully decommissioned.Finally,because of the enormous technological advances since t

70、he early turbines were installed,the new repowered wind farms often have increased capacity even with fewer new turbines.This increased capacity is known as repowered capacity.Decommissioned capacity=Capacity under repower-ing+Fully decommissioned capacityRepowered capacity=Capacity of new wind farm

71、18WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind Power in 2022Obtaining new permits should therefore be quicker and more efficient than greenfield projects.The EU has recognised the potential for repowering projects and has introduced emergency legislation(under

72、 Article 122 of the EU Treaty)to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.The legislation calls on Member States to ensure that all permitting procedures for renewable projects should be completed within two years,and for repowering projects six months.However,high electricity prices and regula

73、tory and invest-ment uncertainty,following on from the various revenue caps and the upcoming EU Electricity Market Design Review,will likely increase the attractiveness for developers and asset owners to extend project lifetimes rather than repower their wind farms.1.4 Power generationWind energy me

74、t a record 17%of demand across the EU-27+UK,an increase of 2%from 2021.Wind conditions,especially in northern Europe,were signifi-cantly better and coupled with strong installations in Sweden and Finland particularly,generation in the EU-27+UK was up more than 9%compared with 2021.Conversely electri

75、city demand was down in 2022 because of particularly high prices and measures introduced by Governments to reduce demand in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.In 2021 Spain and Italy were alone amongst the major markets in increasing power output from the previous year.In 2022 they were alo

76、ne amongst the major markets in not increasing power output.All other countries in Europe with the exception of Estonia,Slovakia,Hungary and Slovenia,produced more wind power than in 2021.Wind power plants in Europe produced 489 TWh of electric-ity in 2022 and covered 17%of the electricity demand(14

77、.1%from onshore and 3.2%from offshore wind).Wind power achieved record daily production on 16 February(2,927 GWh)corresponding to 122 GW average output or about 56%of the fleet producing at maximum output for the entire day.And wind met 26%of the electricity demand in Europe for the whole of the mon

78、th of February.The day of the year in which wind power plants generated the lowest output of electricity was on 30 May when total generation was 449 GWh,covering 6%of demand in Europe on that day.454 MWDECOMMISSIONED IN 2022FIGURE 6.Power demand and wind energy generation in the EU-27 and the UK in

79、2022(GW)Source:WindEurope0500300350400450GWOnshoreOffshoreDemand in the EU+UKJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec19Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Power in 2022WIND ENERGY MET 17%OF THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN THE EU AND UK IN 2022Denmark

80、 had the highest share of wind with an impressive 55%,followed by Ireland with 34%.The UK became the country with the third highest share of wind with 28%.Germany(26%),Portugal(26%),Spain(25%),and Sweden(25%)followed.Across the board the share of wind was higher in 2022 than 2021.17 countries had wi

81、nd energy shares above 10%.In Sweden and Finland,good wind conditions and strong installations led to an increase in the share of wind of 6%and 5%respectively compared with 2021.The Netherlands also saw a significant increase in the share of wind energy in the electricity mix,from 12%in 2020 to 15%i

82、n 2021 and 19%in 2022.This was driven by the installed onshore and offshore capacity doubling since the start of 2020(2.6 GW onshore and 1.8 GW offshore)and favourable wind conditions in the North Sea in 2022.FIGURE 7.Percentage of electricity demand covered by wind8Source:WindEurope8.The figures re

83、present the average of the share of wind in final electricity demand,captured hourly from ENTSO-E and corrected thanks to national TSOs and Government data.Data is not available from all European countries.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%OnshoreOffshoreSlovakiaSloveniaSwitzerlandCzechiaHungaryLatviaBulgariaCypr

84、usItalyFranceEstoniaTurkeyPolandNorwayAustriaLithuaniaRomaniaCroatiaBelgiumFinlandNetherlandsGreeceSwedenSpainPortugalGermanyUKIrelandDenmarkEUEU+UK0%0%0%1%1%3%4%6%7%8%8%10%11%11%12%12%12%13%13%14%19%19%25%25%26%26%28%34%55%16%17%20WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook f

85、or 2023-2027Wind Power in 2022Wind energy generation in Europe(EU+UK)in 2022 reached new records in terms of absolute production(489 TWh),and for share of consumption met by onshore(14.1%)and off-shore wind energy(3.2%).It is not surprising that the general trend is of increased generation and share

86、 of demand given the new installations of ever more powerful turbines.But wind conditions also play a role and this was highlighted in 2021 when generation was lower than in 2020.The electricity demand in Europe was also lower in 2022 than in 2021,driven down by very high electricity prices across t

87、he year and measures taken by Governments to reduce demand in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.In the EU,the share of wind energy covering electricity demand reached 16%.The lack of the UKs large offshore fleet(which produced 42 TWh in 2022)in the EU figures is the main reason for this lo

88、wer share.The REPowerEU Action Plan envisages an increase in the targeted renewable share in the energy mix from the current goal of 32%by 2030 to 45%(the final target is likely to be a compromise between the two).This amounts to a 36-50%share of wind in the EUs electricity mix by 2030.Capacity fact

89、ors for the entire wind fleet in the EU and UK were 25%on average.Capacity factors for onshore were 24%(up from 22%in 2021),while for offshore they were 36%,up from 32%in 2021.The fleet-wide capacity factor numbers are relatively low compared with new wind farms as they represent the perfor-mance of

90、 the entire wind fleet,including very old installa-tions.Old installations typically feature turbines with large generators and relatively small rotors(short blades).These are best suited for very windy locations.Modern turbines can be built in locations with a lower high-speed wind resource,and thu

91、s need to take advantage of lower-wind speeds.They use larger blades and relatively smaller generators,increasing their capacity factors.Capacity factors for new onshore wind farms are estimated at 30-35%.For new offshore wind farms,this figure ranges between 42%and 55%.TABLE 2.Electricity productio

92、n from wind power in the EU-27 and in the EU+UK(TWh)Electricity consumption in EU+UK(TWh)Onshore wind energy production(TWh)Offshore wind energy production(TWh)Total wind energy production(TWh)Share of consumption met by wind energyEU-272,5493644841216%EU+UK2,8283999048917%21Wind energy in Europe-20

93、22 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Power in 2022Figure 8 shows the range of hourly electricity generation from wind energy during each month of 2022.In January for instance,the average(median)power output of the wind fleet was 66 GW,while we could rely on at least 36 GW mos

94、t of the time(90%of the hours).There were a few instances(10%of all hours)where output exceeded 88 GW.Similarly to 2020 and 2021,February saw the highest average output with 83 GW.And for 90%of the time the EU and UKs wind output was more than 47 GW,equivalent to over 90%of the average demand of Fra

95、nce.Over the summer period from June to August,the variation in electricity produced per hour by wind dropped(shown by the size of the boxes)and the average amount was also lower(shown by the lower position of the boxes).August had the lowest average generation.Output for 90%of the hours exceeded 20

96、 GW,and for 10%of the hours,it was more than 37 GW.Wind energy production is variable,and the hourly variability generally follows a set pattern of more wind generation and greater variability of generation in the winter months.Over the summer when stable,high-pressure systems are more common in Eur

97、ope,wind energy generation tends to be lower and less variable.FIGURE 8.Spread of hourly wind energy generation in the EU+UK in 2022Source:WindEurope020406080100120JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep OctNovDecCombined onshore and offshore generation(GW)90%of the time,wind generation is less than this(”P10”)

98、Most frequent hourly wind energy generation-there is an equal probability of more or less generation in an hour(P50”)90%of the time,wind generation is more than this(”P10”)Chapter name22WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Highest wind energy shares 55%26%3

99、4%28%26%25%25%16 FebruaryRecord in wind production 020406080100120JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecGW17%of EU+UK electricity demandEuropean wind energy generation 2022Onshore windOffshore wind225 GWonshore wind capacity 14%onshore wind of EU+UK electricity demand24%average onshore wind capacity f

100、actor*30 GWoffshore wind capacity 3%offshore wind of EU+UK electricity demand36%average offshore wind capacity factor*Capacity factors of entire fleet including old turbines489 TW/hEU+UK wind energy generation23Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Powe

101、r in 20221.5 Turbine sizesThe size and type of wind turbines installed in Europe varies between countries.The most powerful onshore wind tur-bines were installed in Sweden,with an average power rating of 5.7 MW,closely followed by Finland,with an average power rating of 5.6 MW.Portugal had the lowes

102、t average power rating with 2.2 MW,albeit based on only 13 installed turbines.Poland installed the second lowest average turbine rating of 2.8 MW.Power ratings are closely correlated to the size of the turbines and in Poland the sizes are largely constrained by the so-called 10H rule which limits th

103、e minimum distance between a wind turbine and nearby housing to ten times the tip height of a turbine.The average power rating of onshore turbines installed in 2022 across Europe was 4.1 MW,equal to the value recorded in 2021.In 2022 the average rated capacity of newly installed off-shore turbines w

104、as 8 MW,also equal to the figures for 2021.The Netherlands had the highest average power rating with 10.9 MW.In Italy,the Beleolico wind farm which went through many years of project delays,had the lowest average power rating with 3 MW.FIGURE 9.Number of turbines installed in 2022 and their average

105、power ratingSource:WindEurope020406080100120140UKFranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsNorwayOffshore160Number of wind turbinesAverage power rating(MW)0369121378.68038341078.66.09.010.93.02.200500FranceGermanyPolandSwedenFinlandNetherlandsSpainTurkeyItalyUKBelgiumNorwayAustriaGreeceIrelandDenmarkL

106、ithuaniaLatviaPortugalLuxembourgOnshore6000123456Number of wind turbinesNumber of wind turbinesAverage power ratingAverage power rating(MW)56255673427141372.84.42.85.65.74.64.23.84.24.33.33.65.53.44.23.94.44.24.224WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics an

107、d the outlook for 2023-2027Wind Power in 2022Based on disclosed wind turbine orders,the average power rating of onshore turbines ordered in 2022 was 5.1 MW.For offshore turbines,this figure reached 12.2 MW.These turbines should be installed over the next few years and this will likely continue the t

108、rend of increasing power ratings for installed turbines.1.6 Auction and tendersIn 2022 wind energy secured 16.9 GW in 15 countries,surpassing the figure of 12.4 GW that was allocated in 2021.9.5 GW was awarded to offshore wind in the UK,Germany and the Netherlands and 7.4 GW of onshore wind was awar

109、ded in 15 countries.The results of four auctions in the Czech Republic,France,the Netherlands and Romania are not yet available.OnshoreGermany awarded the most capacity via auctions.3.2 GW was secured from a total available capacity of 4.6 GW through technology-specific auctions.The average capacity

110、-weighted award value was 58.1/MWh,just below the maximum permissible value of 58.8/MWh.In 2023 Germany will auction a staggering 12.8 GW of onshore wind capacity;however it is unlikely that there will be such a vol-ume of permitted projects which could compete.The Federal Network Agency(BNetzA)has

111、been permitted to increase the maximum allowed bid price by up to 25%(73.5/MWh),recognising the impact of inflation and more expensive raw materials on project development costs.The UK awarded almost 1.5 GW of support for onshore wind as part of the Contract-for-Difference(CfD)Allocation Round 4(AR

112、4),all in Scotland.This figure included around 900 MW from a maximum 3.5 GW in Pot 1 for established technologies and just under 600 MW from Pot 2,where onshore remote island wind competed against other less established technologies.Onshore wind under Pot 1 cleared at 42.47/MWh(49.8/MWh),while onsho

113、re remote island wind cleared at 46.39/MWh(54.4/MWh).For CfD AR 5 which will launch in 2023,the administrative strike price of onshore wind has been kept at 53/MWh(62.2/MWh),while for remote island wind it has been reduced to 53/MWh from 62/MWh(72.7/MWh).Frances partial results for 2022 indicate tha

114、t 589 MW of onshore wind capacity was awarded through two rounds:one part of the AO PPE2 technology neutral auction scheme(321 MW)and the other part of the AO PPE2 technology specific auction scheme(268 MW).The weighted average price for onshore wind in the technology neutral round was 78.8/MWh,whil

115、e the technology specific auction round reported a weighted average price of 67.3/MWh.A second technology specific auction round was run at the end of 2022.Turkey awarded support for 850 MW of wind power capacity spread over 20 projects as part of the countrys Renewable Energy Resources Zone YEKA te

116、nder programme.The lowest bid offer was TRY40.8c/kWh(23.6/MWh),while the highest bid offer was TRY77.8c/kWh(45.0/MWh).Ireland awarded 414 MW of onshore wind capacity via the second edition of its technology neutral Renewable Electricity Support Scheme,RESS 2.The weighted average Price of successful

117、bids including both onshore wind and solar PV,as well utility-scale and community projects was 97.9/MWh.Poland allocated 245 MW of onshore wind support in its technology neutral auction,out of 11.25 TWh offered.This was below the 460 MW awarded to onshore wind in the equivalent auction in 2021.The m

118、inimum price achieved for onshore wind was PLN150/MWh(32.3/MWh).Italy saw only 213 MW awarded,despite more than 5.7 GW being offered over three rounds in the unsubscribed FER1 technology neutral scheme.The average weighted strike price of the successful bids was 64.2/MWh.The FER 1 CfD scheme which w

119、as launched in 2019 originally featured only seven rounds.However,unallocated capacity each round is rolled over to subsequent rounds with the option to create additional rounds if capacity is not fully allocated.Nearly 1.3 GW remains to be tendered under the FER 1 auction scheme.Greece awarded 166

120、MW of onshore wind in its technology neutral auction.The average bidding price of the awarded onshore wind volumes was 57.7/MWh.FIGURE 10.Share of auctions and tenders for wind energy support schemes by country in 2022Source:WindEuropeOthers189 MWGreece166 MWItaly213 MWPoland245 MWIreland414 MWFranc

121、e589 MWTurkey850 MWNetherlands1,520 MWGermany4,205 MWUK8,512 MW25Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind Power in 2022Croatia awarded 78 MW of onshore wind in its first utili-ty-scale technology neutral auction,which made 300 MW available for onshore wind

122、.The successful projects were awarded premiums of HRK 453.60/MWh(60.2/MWh).The maximum strike price was set at HRK 460.91(61.4/MWh).Austria awarded 45 MW to onshore wind as part of its new renewable energy auction scheme under the recently adopted Renewable Expansion Act.The volume available was cap

123、ped at 190 MW for 2022 instead of 390 MW which will be tendered annually from 2023 onwards.The average price recorded as part of the auction was 82.2/MWh.Spain awarded just 45 MW out of 1.5 GW offered to onshore wind.The Spanish Government set a maximum bidding price but did not disclose the cap to

124、bidders.It was later revealed to be at around 45/MWh,but most participants priced their projects at around 60/MWh on average,making their bids unsuccessful.Estonia tendered support for 540 GWh of renewable electricity as part of its first technology neutral auction.The volume offered was increased f

125、rom the original 450 GWh due to strong demand.A total of 1,201 GWh of bids were submitted of which 220 GWh was successful from a hybrid onshore wind-solar PV facility.The auction model is based on a one-sided sliding premium(capped at 20/MWh)equal to the difference between the winning bid price(stri

126、ke price)and the market price of electricity.The results of some auctions that took place in 2022 are not yet available.They include the Netherlands scheme on Sustainable Energy Production and Climate Transition Incentive SDE+,the Czech Republics first renewable energy auction,which featured 30 MW a

127、vailable for onshore wind,and Romanias investment subsidy auction for around 950 MW of eligible technologies including onshore wind.In the second half of 2022 Albania completed the initial phase of its first wind power auction for 200 MW.Bids are expected to be submitted in 2023.OffshoreThe UK aucti

128、oned the most offshore wind capacity with 7 GW awarded as part of the CfD AR 4(Pot 3),exclusively to bottom-fixed offshore.This included the Scottish wind farms Inch Cape Phase 1(1,080 MW)and the Moray West Offshore Wind Farm which secured support for 294 MW out of its total 882 MW capacity.Other wi

129、nners were EA3 Phase 1(1,372 MW),Norfolk Boreas Phase 1(1,396 MW)and Hornsea 3(2,852 MW),all in England.The strike price was a record low of 37.35/MWh(43.8/MWh).The TwinHub Floating Offshore Wind Project(32 MW)was also successful in securing support from Pot 2 for emerging technologies with a strike

130、 price of 87.30/MWh(102.4/MWh).The Netherlands awarded the rights to develop just over 1.5 GW of capacity to Hollandse Kust West VI and VII,with 760 MW each.Both auctions were almost exclusively evaluated against non-price criteria.Site VI was evaluated on biodiversity protection criteria and Site V

131、II on system integration.Germany awarded 980 MW for the N-7.2 area in the North Sea via a zero-subsidy tender,but the original developer exercised their step-in rights to develop the site.26WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind Power in 2022OnshoreAucti

132、onMW awardedType of auctionSupport mechanismPrice in/MWhAustriaEAG-202245Technology specificFeed-in-premium(floating)82CroatiaOIE br.1/202278Technology specificContract for Difference60EstoniaTechnology neutral 202221Technology neutralFeed-in-premium(floating)19-35FranceAO PPE2 Neutre321Technology n

133、eutralFeed-in-premium(floating)79AO PPE2 Eolien terrestre268Technology specificFeed-in-premium(floating)67GermanyEEG-February bidding round1,328Technology specificFeed-in-premium(floating)58EEG-May bidding round931Technology specificFeed-in-premium(floating)59EEG-September bidding round773Technology

134、 specificFeed-in-premium(floating)58EEG-December bidding round189Technology specificFeed-in-premium(floating)59GreeceJoint Competitive Tendering Process166Technology neutralContract for Difference58IrelandRESS 2414Technology neutralContract for Difference98ItalyFER 1 bidding round 840Technology neut

135、ralContract for Difference65FER 1 bidding round 9151Technology neutralContract for Difference65FER 1 bidding round 1022Technology neutralContract for Difference65PolandAZ/2/2022(systems 1 MW)245Technology neutralContract for Difference32SpainOnshore wind 202245Technology specificContract for Differe

136、nce43TurkeyYEKA RES-3 wind850Technology specificFeed-in-tariff24-45UKCfD AR 4-Onshore wind888Technology specificContract for Difference50CfD AR 4-Remote island wind598Technology specificContract for Difference54OffshoreAuctionMW awardedType of auctionSupport mechanismPrice in/MWhGermanyN-7.2980Techn

137、ology specificZero-subsidy bidn.a.NetherlandsHollandse Kust West VI&VII1,520Technology specificZero-subsidy bidn.a.UKCfD AR 4-Offshore wind6,994Technology specificContract for Difference44CfD AR 4-Floating offshore32Technology specificContract for Difference102TABLE 3.Auctions and tenders for wind e

138、nergy support schemes in 2022Chapter name27Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropePhoto:Jason BickleyChapter name28WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-20272.“Wind energy is delivering more clean power to Europe than eve

139、r before meeting 17%of its electricity demand in 2022,up from 13%five years ago.And the further build-out of wind will be key to reducing our dependence on imported fossil fuels and transitioning to climate neutrality”Sven UtermhlenCEO,RWE Offshore Wind WindEurope Chairman29Wind energy in Europe-202

140、2 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind power in Europe:The full picture2.1 Europes total wind power capacityA total of 255 GW of wind power capacity is now installed in Europe.88%of this(225 GW)is onshore and 12%(30 GW)is installed offshore.In the EU-27 the total installed wind

141、power capacity has reached 204 GW with 188 GW(92%)onshore and 16 GW(8%)offshore.Wind power in Europe:The full pictureFIGURE 11.Installed wind power capacity in Europe,2013-2022Source:WindEurope255 GWOF WIND POWER CAPACITY IS NOW INSTALLED IN EUROPECapacity(GW)2000022

142、Onshore842082250500300Offshore785283030WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind power in Europe:The full pictureGermany continues to have the largest installed wind power fleet in Europe with over 66 GW of instal

143、led capacity.With Spain(30 GW),the UK(29 GW),France(21 GW),Sweden(15 GW)and Turkey(12 GW),the top six countries account for two-thirds of the total installed capacity in Europe.Italy now sits seventh in Europe with just under 12 GW of installed capacity.The Netherlands,Poland,Denmark,Portugal,Finlan

144、d,Belgium,and Norway(ranked here in descending order)all have installed wind power capacity in excess of 5 GW.Among these,Finland jumped five places after record installations in 2022.The next four countries each have over 3 GW of installed capacity.They are Greece,Ireland,Austria,and Romania.FIGURE

145、 12.Total wind power installed capacity in by country,2022Source:WindEuropeCapacity(GW)GermanySpainUKFranceSwedenTurkeyItalyNether-landsPoland Denmark Portugal FinlandBelgiumNorwayOthersOnshore583085663525Offshore802000070Germany26%Spain12%UK11%France8%Sweden6%Turkey

146、5%Others32%2/3 OF EUROPES WIND POWER IS INSTALLED IN JUST SIX COUNTRIES31Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind power in Europe:The full picture2.2 Decommissioning and repowering trends454 MW of wind power capacity was decommissioned in Europe in 2022.1.

147、5 GW was expected to be decommissioned but very high electricity prices throughout the year likely enabled Europes oldest turbines to continue operating.Of the 19.1 GW installed in 2022,591 MW were repowered projects9.The total repowered capacity increased for the fourth year running and was the hig

148、hest since 2017.FIGURE 13.Decommissioned and repowered capacity in Europe,2013-22Source:WindEuropeCapacity(GW)2000022Decommissioned capacity4444553295556844662Repowered capacity0058001,0001,2009.Based on information provide

149、d by National Associations.Modelling suggests repowering capacity should be greater.32WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind power in Europe:The full pictureAs the European wind turbine fleet ages,it is expected that repowering volumes will increase.Some

150、 Governments are setting out new rules to facilitate repowering.But as long as power prices remain higher than expected,the economic situation will continue to favour the lifetime extension of turbines.Many of Europes onshore wind farms are approaching the end of their planned operational lifetime.C

151、urrently,14 GW of Europes existing wind farms have already been running for more than 20 years.By 2030,78 GW of capacity will be more than 20 years old.On average,Denmark,Spain and Portugal have the oldest wind fleets.Germany has the larg-est installed capacity which could potentially be repowered w

152、ith 17 GW older than 15 years.Most wind farms reaching the end-of-life stage currently opt for some form of lifetime extension,not only because of the current economic situation,but often because legislative frameworks for repowering are not yet in place.Wind farm repowering boosts output three time

153、s over on average,while also cutting down the number of turbines.It therefore represents a great opportunity to quickly ramp up the wind energy production in Europe.Almost all repowered capacity by 2030 will be from onshore wind.FIGURE 14.Age of onshore wind farms in EuropeSource:WindEuropeCapacity(

154、GW)02468203040506070GermanySpainFranceUKSwedenTurkeyItalyPolandNether-landsPortugalAverage age of turbines(years)0-4 years5-9 years10-14 years15-19 years20-24 years25-30 yearsAverage age of turbinesAverage age11.313.38.08.76.06.111.46.96.613.433Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and th

155、e outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind power in Europe:The full pictureFIGURE 15.Average power rating of installed turbines in Europe,2013-22Source:WindEurope02468942000212022Turbine power rating(MW)OnshoreOffshore3.93.84.25.06.06.87.88.28.08.02.42.52.52.62.82.93.1

156、3.54.14.12.3 Turbine trendsOnshoreThe average power rating of turbines installed onshore in 2022 was 4.1 MW,equal to the figure for 2021.Before this,the average power rating grew from a value of 2.4 GW in 2013,an increase of more than 70%over the last decade.In addition to new,more powerful machines

157、,turbines with relatively larger rotor diameters and lower power ratings were unveiled in 2022.These are designed for sites charac-terised by lower wind speeds.The average power rating of onshore turbines ordered over the year reached a record 5.1 MW.Their deployment on the ground in the following y

158、ears is likely to lead to further increases to the average power rating of installed onshore wind turbines.OffshoreAfter a period of continuous growth between 2014 and 2020 when installed turbine power ratings more than doubled,the average power rating of offshore wind turbines has remained steady a

159、t around 8 MW since.The 2022 value was impacted by the commissioning of Italys first offshore wind farm featuring ten relatively small offshore wind turbines of 3 MW each.The wind farm was first proposed in 2008 but suffered significant permitting delays during which time offshore wind turbines have

160、 greatly increased in size and power.Orders of offshore turbines in 2022 also reached a record high,averaging 12.2 MW.With new,more powerful turbines about to enter the market,average installed offshore wind turbines are expected to see their power ratings increase from 2023 on.34WindEurope I Wind e

161、nergy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Wind power in Europe:The full picture2.4 Power generation trendsWind energy generation in Europe has been growing steadily from 370 TWh in 2018 to 489 TWh in 2022,with one anomalous year in 2021 when generation was lower than in 2020.Over

162、the same period,electricity demand has fallen from 2,960 TWh in 2018 to 2,830 TWh in 2022.In part this was the result of lockdowns from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the war in Ukraine in 2022.Wind energy met 13%of the demand in the EU and UK in 2018,and in 2022 it covered 17%.In the EU,wind ene

163、rgys share of demand was 12%in 2018,increasing to 16%in 2022.In general,capacity factors for wind turbines increase over time as turbine technology improves and many countries have seen rising fleet-wide capacity factors over the years as they install more modern turbines.For example,Finlands onshor

164、e wind capacity factor showed particularly strong growth over the last five years,growing from 21%in 2018 to 32%in 2022.Norway saw a similar increase(27%-37%).Both of these countries had strong installation figures between 2018-22 and typically install relatively large onshore turbines,leading to a

165、significant increase in generating capacity.FIGURE 16.Wind energy generation and share of demand in EU+UK,2018-22Source:WindEuropeWind energy generationWind energy share of demandWind energy generation(TWh)Share of demand met by wind energy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0500300350400450

166、50020021202235Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeWind power in Europe:The full pictureWhen looking at Europe as a whole,other factors become important.The size of turbines being installed in each country has a major impact.If there are more tur

167、bines installed in countries which typically install smaller turbines(for example because they have more restrictive rules),this would boost the proportion of turbines with lower capacity factors in Europe.The European fleets capacity factors could fall as a result.Wind conditions across the contine

168、nt also impact fleet-wide capacity factor trends.In 2021,wind conditions were lower than average in northern Europe.Even though they were higher than usual in southern Europe,the larger part of installed wind capacity is located in the north.The impact is visible in the capacity factor statistics fo

169、r that year.Offshore fleet capacity factors are more variable than onshore wind since it is concentrated in a smaller region(albeit over generally larger farms stronger and steadier wind resources).This points to the advantages of diversifying resources;the wind is always blowing somewhere in Europe

170、.FIGURE 17.Average capacity factor of installed wind turbines in EU+UK,2018-22Source:WindEuropeOnshoreOffshoreCapacity factor0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%200212022Chapter name36WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-20273.“Governments across Europe see

171、the value of wind in decarbonising their economies,and crucially,boosting energy security.The pledges are there.But over the next five years we expect installations in Europe to fall short.To stay the course Governments must now deliver on the simplification and acceleration of permitting”Pierre Tar

172、dieuChief Policy Officer,WindEurope37Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeMarket outlook 2023-20273.1 WindEuropes Outlook ScenariosThe five-year WindEurope Market Outlook for wind installa-tions looks at the likely development of wind power capacity in Euro

173、pe.It features two outcomes:Our Central Scenario.This scenario lays out the best estimate for installed capacity in Europe over the next five years,including any likely political or economic develop-ments which could affect installations.We consider the latest developments in EU regulation,national

174、policies,announcements of signed power purchase agreements(PPAs),project development timelines and the ability of wind to secure further capacity in upcoming auctions and tenders.Under this scenario,Europe will install 129 GW,with an average installation rate of 25.8 GW per year.In the EU,we expect

175、installations of 98 GW between 2023 and 2027 at an average rate of 19.6 GW a year.This is significantly less than the average installation rate of 31 GW per year between 2023 and 2030,which is required to meet our energy and climate targets.Our 2030 Targets Scenario.This scenario represents a the-or

176、etical installation rate required to meet the REPowerEU target(440 GW10)and the 2030 targets of non-EU coun-tries,namely the UK(50 GW),Turkey(18 GW),Norway(12 GW)and Switzerland(0.2 GW).The installation rate begins at the level of installations from 2022 and increases to a peak growth rate between 2

177、026 and 2027,showing the expected ramp-up in installations over the next few years.Annual installations continue to increase after 2027,albeit at a slower rate(including an allowance for expected decommissioning),leading to the 2030 targets being met.Under this scenario,Europe needs to install 145 G

178、W over the next five years to stay on target.In the EU,117 GW would need to be installed from 2023-27 to stay on track to meet the REPowerEU targets for 2030.In Europe,we expect there to be 19.4 GW of new capacity installations in 2023.The small increase in installations compared with 2022 will be m

179、ainly driven by offshore installations.But in the EU installations are expected to be just 15.8 GW,falling from 16.1 GW in 2022.High inflation from energy and raw material price increases,together with global supply chain bottlenecks have made developing projects much more challenging.But there is a

180、lso a lot of uncertainty for developers and investors.This follows on from the patchwork of measures introduced by National Governments across Europe to protect consumers from the effects of the energy crisis.Investments in 2022 were down from previous years and orders of wind turbines were 47%lower

181、 than in 2021.The EU must make Europe an attractive place for renewables again and ensure that proposed changes to the electricity market design do not reverse 20 years of European energy market integration.Over the five years to 2027,installations in Europe are expected to fall short 16 GW short of

182、 the required ramp-up rates set out in the 2030 Targets Scenario.Market outlook .See section 4.1 for an explanation of the REPowerEU targets.38WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Market outlook 2023-2027Germany will continue to be Europes larges

183、t wind market with the build out of wind power capacity over the next five years expected to be 21 GW onshore and 6.4 GW offshore.In 2022 the German Parliament adopted a new Onshore Wind Law(WindLandG)which sets an installation target of 10 GW a year from 2025.It also enshrines the principle that th

184、e expansion of renewables is a matter of“overriding public interest”and includes improvements to onshore wind permitting.The onshore wind auction schedules have been revised as well.In 2023 alone 12.8 GW of onshore wind will be auctioned followed by 10 GW per year in the period 2024-2028.It is unlik

185、ely that there will be sufficient permit-ted projects to fill the schedule in the early years,particularly in 2023 when there may be up to 6 GW of permitted projects available.Germany will also auction 8.8 GW of offshore wind in 2023,followed by 8-9 GW in 2024,3-5 GW a year in 2025-2026,and 4 GW in

186、2027.In Spain onshore wind power capacity is expected to increase by 12 GW over the next five years,making it one of the largest markets in Europe.The PPA and merchant markets remain strong,allowing annual volumes to exceed the 1.5 GW of onshore wind scheduled to be auctioned each year until 2025.Wh

187、ile there is currently no dedicated offshore wind energy auction schedule,Spain might,in 2023,launch an auction tender for a floating wind farm in the Canary Islands,with an indicative volume of approximately 300 MW.In France the National Assembly and Senate approved its first law on renewable energ

188、y in February 2023.The so-called Renewable Acceleration Law makes local elected officials jointly responsible for the implementation of the energy transition.There are 6.5 GW of onshore wind capac-ity auctions scheduled(with an additional 2 GW available in technology neutral auctions)over the next f

189、ive years and the build out is expected to reach 7.5 GW.There is also positive language in the new law for offshore wind,where a frame-work for development is set to be established.France is set to auction 2.75 GW of offshore wind capacity in 2023 and 1.5 GW in 2024.Overall it is expected to install

190、 3.6 GW of new offshore wind power capacity between 2023 and 2027.Sweden is expected to install 6.5 GW of new onshore capac-ity over the period from 2023 to 2027.The new Government has put less emphasis on renewables,but wind energy is still likely to play an important role in the decarbonisation of

191、 industry.Sweden does not currently run auctions to grant support for the development of wind energy,but the country has a strong PPA market which will continue to support wind energy development.The Netherlands wind capacity growth over the 2023-2027 period is expected to come predominantly from th

192、e offshore sector,with 4.3 GW of new capacity expected to be installed.In 2023 the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy will auction 4 GW of offshore wind capacity for the IJmuiden Ver sites I,II,III,and IV,originally scheduled to be tendered over the 2023-26 period.There is some uncertai

193、nty surrounding the expected onshore wind build-out in the Netherlands.The scale of future installations depends on the outcome of the unresolved Nevele judgment case.This centres around the standards which are currently used to licence onshore wind farms.We have forecasted 1.5 GW of new onshore cap

194、acity by 2027.Poland is expected to commission 4.2 GW over the period from 2023-27.While a significant portion(2 GW)is expected to come from offshore facilities,the onshore sector is still expected to contribute 2.2 GW.The 10H rule,which forbids the construction of wind turbines if located at a dist

195、ance from buildings equal to ten times their tip height,has excluded onshore wind from 98%of Polish territory since 2016.The lower chamber of the Parliament voted for a new law in February 2023 which theoretically makes it easier to build new onshore wind,but the original proposal(a 500 m FIGURE 18.

196、New installations in Europe WindEuropes scenariosSource:WindEurope200224202520262027Capacity(GW)OnshoreOffshoreCentral Scenario2030 Targets Scenario05540455039Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeMarket outlook 2023-2027setb

197、ack distance)was watered down resulting in a 700 m setback distance.This will continue to restrict onshore wind development if adopted.Finland will continue to expand its onshore wind installed capacity,albeit at a slower pace than in 2022.In total,it is expected to add 4.8 GW during the period from

198、2023-2027,all onshore.However the Government is working on its first offshore wind auction,which could take place in 2023 or 2024,the details of which have not yet been finalised.Finland does not currently run onshore wind auctions but has strong merchant and PPA markets.Italy is expected to add lim

199、ited volumes of wind power capacity over the next five years.Most of this will be onshore wind(3.6 GW).Just under 0.8 GW are expected to come from offshore installations.In 2023 Italy will allocate the remaining 1.3 GW volume for the technology neutral FER 1 auction scheme which went unawarded in 20

200、22.Similarly it should launch the long-awaited FER 2 auction scheme in Spring 2023,dedicated to less established technologies including floating wind(and possibly also bottom-fixed).This scheme should feature an overall volume of 3.5 GW spread over the period 2023-26.Denmarks build out of wind power

201、 capacity from 2023-2027 is expected to be around 2 GW of onshore wind and 2.4 GW offshore.Around one quarter of the forecasted offshore wind capacity was expected to be developed under Denmarks open scheme.It is unclear how the recent decision to pause the scheme by the Danish Government will affec

202、t the projects involved.In Spring 2023 Denmark will launch the tender procedure for its North Sea energy island and in Q4 it should publish the contract notice for the Energy Island Bornholm.The award of the concession is expected to take place in Q4 of the following year.Finally,following the chang

203、e to the Hessel Offshore Wind Farm location,the awarding of the concession is now expected sometime in 2025-26.Ireland is expected to install 3.2 GW over the next five years,most of which will be onshore wind(2.6 GW).The country is set to unveil the details of its third onshore wind auction scheme,t

204、he RESS 3,later in 2023.It will also be running its first offshore wind auction scheme,the ORESS 1,in the first half of 2023,which is expected to tender 2.5 GW of offshore capacity.Belgium is expected to install annual onshore wind volumes similar to those recorded for 2022,totalling 1.6 GW by 2027.

205、New offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 1 GW by the same date.While Belgium does not run onshore auctions,it is expected that 3.5 GW of offshore wind will be auctioned between 2024-26 as part of the Princess Elisabeth Island project.In Greece,wind power additions over the 2023-27 period are

206、expected to come exclusively from onshore wind,totalling 2 GW.In 2023,it will hold two 600 MW multi-technology tenders featuring wind power,and two 100 MW tenders for small PV and wind power systems.In 2024,there will be tenders for at least 500 MW of eligible technologies including wind power,but f

207、urther details about this auction are not yet known.Austrias wind energy outlook for 2027 is 2 GW of capacity additions.The countrys latest renewable energy law aims to auction 390 MW of wind per year.For the EU overall,98 GW of capacity additions are expected over the next five years,with onshore w

208、ind accounting for 78%.Offshore wind capacity additions should total 21 GW.FIGURE 19.New installations in the EU Central scenarioSource:WindEuropeCapacity(GW)20232024202520262027Offshore3.52.72.84.57.7Onshore12.314.115.717.017.5050WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the

209、 outlook for 2023-2027Market outlook 2023-2027Outside of the EU-27,the UK is expected to install the most new wind power capacity over the next five years,second only to Germany in Europe.Most will be offshore installa-tions(12.7 GW).Onshore wind build-out is expected to be 7.3 GW,with most of this

210、likely to be built in Scotland due to the lasting effects of the de facto ban of onshore wind in England.The UK will launch its fifth CfD Allocation Round in 2023.Bottom-fixed offshore will compete against onshore wind and floating offshore wind will compete in a separate pot for less mature technol

211、ogies.In Norway,strong local opposition and laws enabling local communities to block any project have led to a bleak outlook for onshore wind.The Government is developing its frame-work for offshore wind,both for bottom fixed and floating,but there are unlikely to be any installations before 2027(be

212、sides small demonstrators and the final turbines being connected to the grid at Hywind Tampen).Turkey is expected to install 8.2 GW between 2023 and 2027,all of which will be onshore.Total capacity additions across Europe over the next five years are expected to come to 129 GW,95 GW(74%)from onshore

213、 wind and 34 GW of new capacity installed off-shore.Up to 500 MW of this will be floating offshore wind,including Hywind Tampen and the first projects in France and the UK.FIGURE 20.New installations in Europe Central scenarioSource:WindEuropeCapacity(GW)05540Onshore2023202420252026202714

214、.517.718.921.023.3Offshore5.04.44.78.411.6Photo:Jason Bickley42WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Market outlook 2023-2027EU-27(MW)20232024202520262027OnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreAustria400-400-400-400-400-Be

215、lgium290-300-00Croatia50-150-250-300-300-Czechia40-40-80-80-70-Denmark403505580800410900Estonia60-240-100-150-200-Finland1,000-1,200-1,000-780-800-France1,2009901,5005301,5009901,5003001,800800Germany3,0002503,5001,6304,5009005,0001,4205,0002,210Greece590-330-410-350-350-Ire

216、land290-520-490-Italy450-450-,140520Latvia-50-150-300-300-Lithuania150-290-290-360-380-Luxembourg10-10-10-10-10-Netherlands4001,97002303502501,000Poland450-250-,090Portugal90-120-200-200-380-Romania60-300-450-550-320-Slovakia-10-Spain2,200-2,500-2,500-2,

217、500-2,500160Sweden1,540-1,100-1,090-1,330-1,420-Total EU-2712,3103,50014,1602,70015,6602,80017,0304,54017,5107,740TABLE 4.Expected new installations per country 2023-27 WindEuropes Central Scenario43Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeMarket outlook 2023-2

218、027Others(MW)20232024202520262027OnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOffshoreAlbania-20-50-50-Bosnia&Herzegovina100-130-130-100-Montenegro60-100-North Macedonia50-20-100-100-100-Norway1040-10-Serbia110-280-780-70-300-Switzerland50-50-50-50-Turkey1,000-1,350-1,600-1,900

219、-2,300-UK8101,4201,7601,6705801,9001,5003,8902,6303,820Ukraine-150-300-Total others2,1901,4603,5901,6703,2601,9103,9203,8905,7803,820Total Europe14,5004,96017,7504,37018,9204,71020,9508,43023,29011,56044WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Market outlook 20

220、23-2027Permitting prospects in EuropeThe REPowerEU Action Plan recognises that renewa-bles-based decarbonisation is key for climate neutrality and energy security.And the EU understands that the simplification and acceleration of permitting is a top priority.In December 2022 the EU formally agreed e

221、mergency measures on permitting.Under the new rules Member States:1.Have signed up to the principle that renewables are of overriding public interest:This means the EU Member States can speed up renewables permitting while ensuring a good working balance with other societal interests such as the pro

222、tection of biodiversity.2.Must now permit new repowering projects within 6 months,including the Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA)and the grid permits.These new rules apply to all new permitting applications.Member States can apply them to permits already in the pipeline.The EU is revising its 201

223、8 Renewables Directive in parallel which we expect to incorporate these proposals.Permitting statusApproximately 80 GW of wind power capacity is currently stuck in permitting procedures across Europe,of which at least 59 GW are onshore.Of these,12 GW are in the final stages and should receive their

224、final approvals shortly.A further 14 GW have received all their permits and are ready for construction.This means that at least 47 GW of onshore wind capacity are stuck in administrative procedures with no clear timeline on their progress.TABLE A.Onshore wind energy capacity under permitting in Euro

225、peCountryPermitting pipeline*(GW)Permitting final stages(GW)Permitted(GW)Croatia1.8n/a0.1Denmark0.2n/an/aFinland12.82.21.0France11.04.8n/aGermany4.7n/a4.0Greece3.01.00.8Italy2.7n/an/aLatvia0.3n/an/aNetherlands0.80.50.8Norway2.5n/an/aPoland0.6n/an/aSpain9.73.31.3Sweden8.8n/a6.1Total58.811.814.2*Pipel

226、ine of projects likely to receive permits.In Poland it is unclear how much of the 0.6 GW is affected by uncertainty surrounding the changing legisla-tion on setback distances.There are also significant volumes of wind energy projects in the process of applying for permitting.Hundreds of GW of onshor

227、e and offshore wind in Europe are at some stage in the permitting process,with varying probabilities of being built.This makes it difficult to decipher a single value which represents a true potential build-out.The volumes listed in the table above are all likely to receive a permit and therefore co

228、uld potentially be released by improving the permitting process.With at least 26 GW of onshore wind permitted or in the final stages,things are starting to look better-but there is more to do and it needs to be done faster.Alongside the new rules,the REPowerEU Action Plan contains detailed recommend

229、ations to national Governments on how exactly they can and should simplify their permitting procedures.See WindEuropes summary of the European Commissions new laws and guidance to simplify the permitting of wind energy projects below.Apply the fastest judicial procedure available at national levelLe

230、gal challengesThe European Commission has issued new laws and guidance to simplify the permitting of wind energy projectsIdentify areas where renewablescan be permitted faster with a single strategic Environmental Assessment(Go-to areas)Adopt a population-based approach to biodiversity protection Co

231、nsider renewable projects as of overriding public interestCoordinate maritime spatial planning at sea-basin levelAdministrationMax.2 year process for new renewables and 1 year for projects in go-to-areas and repoweringAllow the combination of wind projects with solar and storage technologies(hybrid

232、power plants)Ensure permits allowthe deployment of state-of-the-art technologyApply“positive silence”:when an authority doesnt comment by an internal deadline,they are deemed to support the permitIncrease staffingDigitalise processesSet a single contact point for all permitting procedures(One-stop-s

233、hop)Be transparent on deadlines,next steps,roles and responsibilities of the different authoritiesSite selectionAuction designGrid connectionImplement long-term grid planning and investmentProvide transparent and digital procedure for grid connection applicationsHow to simplify permittingChapter nam

234、e46WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Market outlook 2023-2027FIGURE 21.New and repowered wind energy installations in Europe-WindEuropes Central ScenarioSource:WindEuropeCapacity(GW)202320222024202520262027Repowered wind farms67891011New wind farms249267

235、28730933737005003003504004503.2 RepoweringRepowering decisions are driven by many factors and are carried out on a case-by-case basis.The most relevant factors when making a decision to repower include:current and future wholesale electricity prices;existing incentives for repowering vers

236、us lifetime exten-sion;and regulation around the Environmental Impact Assessment and other environmental restrictions that have changed over recent years.Over the next five years we expect Europe to install 5.2 GW of repowered wind energy projects11(repowered capacity).The new repowered capacity is

237、expected to come from 3.2 GW of wind farms which will be decommissioned for repowering.We assume that the new repowered capacity is 2.7 times the original capacity,in line with our analysis of past repowering projects.We also assume that there is a timing delay so that there is not a direct annual r

238、elation-ship between the capacity under repowering and the final installed repowered capacity.Germany will remain the largest repowering market,fol-lowed closely by the Netherlands,Italy,Denmark,and Spain.We expect 33 GW of projects to reach 20 years of age or more over the next five years,and with

239、16 GW of projects becoming 25 years old and 1 GW of projects becoming more than 30 years old,we will have 51 GW of projects that will require a decision on whether to repower,extend the life of the asset or decommission them.If Governments do not adopt the right policies to ease bottlenecks in new i

240、nstallations,we might see a fall in total installations in some countries.The repowering of wind farms is crucial if Europe is to meet its energy and climate targets but the current barriers to repowering prevent us from taking full advantage of it.We estimate that if repowering rates are doubled fo

241、r wind farms between 20 and 30 years of age(resulting in up to just 8%of wind farms being repowered a year),an additional 3.5 GW of repowered capacity could be installed.The potential is much higher.11.See Annex 2 for details of repowering and decommissioning assumptions.Chapter name47Wind energy in

242、 Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeMarket outlook 2023-2027Based on current trends and the policy context,we estimate that about 3.2 GW will be decommissioned for repowering and 2.4 GW will be fully decommissioned.This is lower than our previous assumptions,as high ele

243、ctricity prices have boosted the economic prospects of older wind farms.In total around 5.6 GW will be decommissioned over the next five years.The remaining 45 GW will continue to operate and will prob-ably be assessed for life-time extension services(perhaps with partial replacement of certain comp

244、onents such as gearboxes or blades).FIGURE 22.Additional repowering potential in Europe,2022-27Source:WindEuropeCapacity(MW)202220232024202520262027Additional repowering02505807509101,020Expected repowering9108701,0401,0301,1001,20005001,0001,5002,0002,500Chapter name48WindEurope I Wind energy in Eu

245、rope-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-20274.“The wind industry is ready to deliver,but attracting investment remains crucial.Electricity grids,both onshore and offshore,will need major development in the next decade to ensure they can maximise Europes plentiful clean energy resources to deli

246、ver a cleaner,fairer and more secure energy system for its citizens”Cordi OHaraPresident,National Grid Ventures49Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeReaching 2030 Energy and Climate targets4.1 REPowerEU scenarioThe EU is committed to a 55%greenhouse gas em

247、issions reduction target by 2030(compared to 1990 levels).Based on the European Commissions Impact Assessment for reaching the 40%renewable energy target,it was estimated that the EU would need 453 GW of wind energy capacity by 2030(374 GW onshore and 79 GW offshore).The Russian invasion of Ukraine

248、shifted the narrative on energy policy.The war has underlined the critical importance of energy independence and the value that renewable technologies can deliver in addition to their primary benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.In response,the European Commission put forward the REPowerEU A

249、ction Plan which aims to cut the EUs reliance on fossil fuel imports from Russia and reduce fossil fuel imports in general by accelerating the build out of renewa-bles and renewable hydrogen.Under the plan the EU binding renewables target would be increased to 45%of total energy demand,up from 40%in

250、 the Fit-for-55 proposal.According to the Commissions assessments,this would mean a revised target of 510 GW of wind energy by 2030,an additional 57 GW.But this target has been calculated using capacity factors that do not reflect current technology.440 GW:enough to deliver the REPowerEU wind energy

251、 targetThe original REPowerEU Action Plan and Fit-for-55 targets of 510 GW are based on a production of wind energy required to meet 45%of energy demand.The installed capacity required to meet this figure largely depends on the electric-ity output from these expected installations.In the Impact Asse

252、ssment carried out by the European Commission in 2020,it was assumed that onshore and offshore wind would have capacity factors of 27%and 32%respectively.Capacity factors give an indication of the energy that a power plant can produce.A 100%capacity factor would indi-cate that the energy produced th

253、roughout the year is equal to the maximum nameplate capacity of the plant.Capacity factors of 27%and 32%of onshore and offshore wind are reasonable for all of the wind farms in Europe combined but these include a significant proportion of older wind farms with smaller,less powerful turbines.But toda

254、ys turbines are much more efficient.We expect that onshore wind farms installed today will have capacity factors of around 35%.For offshore wind,new wind farms are already achieving capacity factors of 50%.Using a conservative offshore capacity factor of 45%and 35%for onshore reduces the total wind

255、farm capacity that needs to be installed by 2030 to meet the energy production targets.Reaching 2030 energy and climate targets50WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Reaching 2030 Energy and Climate targetsMeeting the Fit-for-55s 40%renewable energy target

256、would require 325 GW of onshore and 59 GW of offshore wind by 2030 allowing for the superior capacity factors of new turbines installed between 2023 and 2030.The REPowerEU Action Plan sets out an additional target of 57 GW of wind power capacity to boost the renewables share of energy in the EU to 4

257、5%by 2030.We do not reduce the additional REPowerEU target because the assumptions behind the calculations are unclear(for example there is no breakdown between onshore and offshore wind).The result-ing wind power capacity needed to meet a 45%renewable energy target by 2030 when accounting for the s

258、uperior capacity factors is 440 GW.FIGURE 23.Onshore and offshore 2030 wind targetsSource:WindEurope3743683636335020025030035040027%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%Onshore Fit-for-55 targets(GW)Capacity factors of new onshore wind farmsOffshore Fit-for-55 targets(GW)Capacity factors fo

259、r new offshore wind farmsThe onshore wind needed to produce 866 TWh a year with different capacity factorsThe offshore wind needed to produce 251 TWh a year with different capacity factors7976747276260405060708032%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%51Wind energy in Europe-2

260、022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeReaching 2030 Energy and Climate targetsCurrent 2030 wind energy pledgesPledges made by EU Member States for wind energy targets in 2030 have grown in light of the new political context.There have been more ambitious commitments,particularly f

261、or offshore wind where current pledges stand at 111 GW by 2030.This is almost double the revised Fit-for-55 target and surpasses the additional REPowerEU target by 9 GW.There is still a 17 GW gap between Member State pledges and the 440 GW target.We assume that this is more likely to be met by new o

262、nshore wind given the optimistic offshore wind pledges.The 45%renewables target has not been agreed at the time of writing and a compromise might be found at 42.5%or 43%.This would reduce the 2030 target approximately to the current value of Member State pledges 423 GW.FIGURE 24.REPowerEU targets an

263、d current 2030 wind energy pledgesSource:WindEuropeOnshoreOffshorePledges shortfall for 45%170Pledges covering REPowerEU057Member State pledges31154Total3290200250300350Capacity(GW)52WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Reaching 2030 Energy and C

264、limate targetsAt the end of 2022,there was 205 GW of wind power capacity installed in the EU.To meet the 440 GW REPowerEU renewable energy target the EU needs to install on average 31 GW a year to 2030.In our REPowerEU Scenario we consider a theoretical instal-lation rate which rises each year with

265、a maximum increase between 2026 and 2027.This represents the need for the supply chain to develop capacity to increase production over the next few years and the expected ramp-up in installa-tions rates.The rate of increase of installations slows each year after 2027,with maximum installations of 25

266、 GW of onshore wind and 22 GW of offshore wind in 2030.If achieved,this build-out would result in cumulative installations of 440 GW in the EU in 2030 after making an allowance for the expected decommissioning of older wind farms.The EU-27 installed 16 GW in 2022 and we believe that 20 GW per year o

267、n average will be installed over the next five years.This is less than the 23 GW that would need to be installed each year between 2023 and 2027 to stay on track to meet a 45%renewable energy target.Given the ramp-up in required installation rates,the EU will need to install around 44 GW per year be

268、tween 2028 and 2030.It is therefore vital that installations over the next few years are as close as possible to the required rates if the targets are to be met.FIGURE 25.Build out of wind energy in the EU under the REPowerEU ScenarioFIGURE 26.New installations in EU-WindEuropes scenariosSource:Wind

269、EuropeSource:WindEurope20222023202420252026202720282029203001020304050Capacity(GW)Offshore wind1.21.83.85.79.814.117.520.122.4Onshore wind14.914.714.215.717.220.322.323.925.2055200224202520262027Capacity(GW)OnshoreOffshoreCentral ScenarioREPowerEU ScenarioWE EXPECT T

270、O BUILD 20 GWPER YEAR IN THE EU,BUT WE NEED TO BE BUILDING 31 GW PER YEAR53Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeReaching 2030 Energy and Climate targets4.2 European country targetsOutside of the EU,other European countries have made significant 2030 commitm

271、ents for wind energy.The UK has set a target of 50 GW of offshore wind alone.With a 2030 target for onshore wind of 22 GW,the UKs total wind energy target is 72 GW making it the second highest in Europe after Germany(145 GW).Turkey has set a wind energy target of 18.1 GW by 2030 and 29.6 GW by 2035.

272、There is no breakdown between onshore and offshore,but we expect that all the wind farm capacity installed by 2030 will be onshore.The 18.1 GW target puts Turkey in the top 10 countries in Europe for 2030 wind energy ambitions.Norway has over 5 GW of wind energy installed(mostly onshore)and does not

273、 have 2030 bidding targets for wind.Onshore wind currently faces strong opposition from local communities which will hold up installations in the short and medium term.The Government is now looking to offshore wind and will run its first offshore wind auctions(3 GW total)in 2023.The winning projects

274、 should be commissioned by 2030.Beyond this the Government announced last year that it will allocate 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2040,mostly for exporting electricity to mainland Europe.Serbias Government has set a target to increase installed wind power capacity tenfold by 2030 which would s

275、uggest a target of 3.5 GW.Switzerland want to increase wind energy output to 0.3 TWh by 2025 and 1.2 TWh by 2035.This would need approximately 240 MW of capacity to be installed by 2030 to be on track.In total,including pledges set by EU Member States of approximately 423 GW,European countries have

276、set targets of 520 GW of wind power capacity by 2030.Today there are 255 GW of wind power capacity installed in Europe.54WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Reaching 2030 Energy and Climate targets4.3 How to deliverWindEuropes outlook shows that installati

277、on rates over the next five years are likely to be insufficient to remain on track to delivering on the 2030 energy and climate targets.And the 2030 Targets Scenario requires annual installation rates in Europe of over 50 GW at the end of the decade.PermittingAs shown above(see Permitting prospects

278、in Europe Box)there is a huge amount of capacity stuck in administrative permitting procedures across Europe:at least 80 GW.If Governments act now to accelerate the permitting of these projects,47 GW of capacity could be made available for development earlier than expected.This would increase manufa

279、cturing pipelines,improve investments signals for developing the supply chain and allow Europe to increase installation rates over the next few years.In the EU,Governments have agreed emergency measures to improve permitting procedures including introducing new deadlines for securing all permits.Per

280、mitting authorities will have two years from the moment the documents are sub-mitted,including the evaluation of the Environmental Impact Assessment,to provide a definitive outcome.For repowered projects the deadline will be six months.Furthermore,renewables are to be considered in the“over-riding p

281、ublic interest”.This should help to prevent projects being bogged down in lengthy permitting processes or litigation.These EU Emergency Measures under Article 122 of the EU Treaty apply to new projects,but Member States can apply them to projects already in the pipeline.These measures will be replac

282、ed by the upcoming Renewable Energy Directive which will apply to both new and existing projects.Supply chainToday the wind industry in Europe employs 300,000 people and manufactures components in over 250 factories.But the wind energy supply chain is struggling.Inflation,challenging access to raw m

283、aterials,the lack of a clear project pipelines and increasing competition from non-European manufactur-ers and markets are all putting pressure on the industry.This is all compounded by the 80 GW of wind energy projects that are currently stuck at various stages of permitting across Europe.Together,

284、these issues create an environment that leads to companies holding back investment decisions for new manufacturing facilities.With the large-scale roll-out of wind turbine installations that are needed and expected as we head towards 2030,Europe could run into significant bottlenecks across the supp

285、ly chain if the right investment environment is not created.Today we already see waiting periods of up to three years for offshore foundations and the availability of cable and instal-lation vessels will also become an issue in the short-term if more are not produced.As new markets in Asia and North

286、 America open up to offshore wind expected competition for vessels is only going to increase.Onshore wind,which will make up the lions share of installa-tions between now and 2030,is being hit by historically low turbine prices(which were agreed 2-3 years previously)that,combined with the pressures

287、of raw material price increases and wider inflation,create a commercial environment that is not sustainable long-term.To meet these challenges,the EU and European countries need to provide a more predictable and supportive environ-ment to sustain and grow its wind energy manufacturing base through t

288、he right policy and regulatory frameworks.This includes:simplifying permitting processes for wind farms;expanding and investing in the grid;reforming auction designs to take indexation into consid-eration,and to include non-price criteria such as system integration,biodiversity and benefits to local

289、 communities as a significant decision-making factor;speeding up access to funding for infrastructure invest-ments;and creating a level-playing field for European manufacturers competing against unfairly subsidised competitors from around the world.A quick adoption of new measures that are manufactu

290、r-er-friendly is vital for a healthy European wind energy supply chain,capable of delivering the continents renewable energy targets.55Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeReaching 2030 Energy and Climate targetsMarket design and investment signalsInvestors

291、 need stable regulatory conditions to make informed decisions regarding long-term investments.Unfortunately,despite Governments attempting to act in the best interest of consumers in the short-term by applying measures to protect them from high energy prices,the resulting patchwork of measures acros

292、s Europe has created an uncertain regulatory environment.This has negatively impacted investment security and threatens Europes longer-term renewable development goals.Investments in wind energy in 2022 were down compared with previous years and particularly with respect to required investment for n

293、ew projects.Turbine orders were down 47%on 2021 orders.With the introduction of the Net-Zero Industry Act and the review of the Electricity Market Design to take place in the EU,there is an opportunity to reverse these negative trends.The Net-Zero Industry Act should focus on delivering key technolo

294、gies for climate neutrality,namely wind energy,solar,storage,heat pumps and electrolysers.As mentioned above,support for the supply chain is vital and the EU should dedicate financial resources to support immediate invest-ments in wind energy manufacturing in Europe.Given the timeframes required to

295、increase the rate of build-out across the EU,investments in renewables and renew-ables manufacturing are needed now.So it is crucial that accessing support for these investments is made as simple and efficient as possible.The EU is also looking at reforming the Electricity Market Design.It is import

296、ant that the patchwork of different revenue caps seen across Member States are not embedded and remain a temporary measure.Renewables need long-term price visibility to be developed with the greatest cost efficiency.Developers and investors should be allowed to achieve that price visibility in a var

297、iety of ways.In many situations this will be through a Government-backed 2-sided Contract-for-Difference(CfD)but other long-term contracts are also important.Other examples include Power Purchase Agreements(PPAs)or hedging power prices where available,as well as merchant investments.Relying exclusiv

298、ely on one form could lead to unwanted market distortions.GridsFor years Europe has been under-investing in the electricity grid.To deliver a grid compatible with a climate neutral energy system,Europe needs to double the rate of invest-ment.It is estimated that grid investments in the region of 460

299、bn12 are needed over the next decade to support the electrification of the EUs energy system.The development of offshore grids needs to be coordinated across borders,and it is a welcome step that the UK will once again take part in the North Seas Energy Cooperation given the size and importance of B

300、ritish offshore wind to Europe.Europe should take the opportunity to lead the development in offshore grids by fully leveraging the potential of offshore hybrids and energy islands rather than rely only on point-to-point connections.The Electricity Market Design reform is a key opportunity to develo

301、p the right investment framework for optimising the electricity grid build-out.SummaryTo meet renewable energy and climate targets,Governments in Europe need to ramp up the build-out of both onshore and offshore wind by:1.Continuing to improve permitting procedures by make them faster and easier.2.S

302、upporting the wind energy supply chain by unlocking permitting projects and making financial support accessi-ble for immediate investment in manufacturing facilities.3.Supporting a market design that allows renewables to take advantage of all forms of long-term contracts and merchant investments.4.I

303、nvesting in developing the electricity grid and working across borders to develop offshore hybrid structures and energy islands.12.Based on REPowerEU estimate of 584bn of grid investments needed between 2020 and 2030.Chapter name56WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook fo

304、r Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027 I WindEuropeAnnex 1GlossarySupport mechanismDescriptionFeed-in-TariffsA type of price-based policy instrument whereby eligible renewable energy generators are paid a fixed price at a guaranteed level(irrespective of the

305、 wholesale price)for the RES electricity produced and fed into the grid.Feed-in-premium(fixed)A type of price-based policy instrument whereby eligible renewable energy generators are paid a premium price which is a payment in addition to the wholesale price.The floating premium would be calculated a

306、s the difference between an average wholesale price and a previously defined guaran-teed price.Effectively it works as a floor price,always guarantees a minimum revenue.Feed-in-premium(floating)A type of price-based policy instrument whereby eligible renewable energy generators are paid a premium pr

307、ice which is a payment in addition to the wholesale price.The floating premium would be calculated as the difference between an average wholesale price and a previously defined guaran-teed price.Effectively it works as a floor price,guarantees always a minimum revenue.Contracts for differencesSimila

308、r to the floating premium.However,under contracts for difference,if the wholesale price rises above the guaranteed price,generators are required to pay back the difference between the guaranteed price and the wholesale price.Zero-subsidy bids(Dutch model)Developers compete for the right to build a w

309、ind farm in a tender in which the selection criteria is not based on the price.The selection is made according to the experience of the bidders,the quality of the project design,the capacity of the project and the social costs,with added weight given to the quality of the survey,risk analysis and mi

310、tigation measures.While the winner doesnt receive any price premium,the transmission costs for the project are covered by the Government.Green CertificatesA tradable commodity proving that certain electricity is generated using renewable energy sources.May have guaranteed minimum prices.The certific

311、ates can be traded separately from the energy produced.Annex 158WindEurope I Wind energy in Europe-2022 Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027Annex 2Annex 2Assumptions for decommissioning and repowering13Projection yearDecommissioning rateRepowering rateRepowered wind farmsOnshoreOffshoreOnshoreOf

312、fshoreOnshoreOffshore0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-150%-161%-90%-0%-171%-90%-0%-181%-90%-0%-191%-90%-0%-201%-90%-1%-211%-75%-1%-221%-75%-1%-232%15%75%100%1%15%244%15%75%100%3%15%255%15%60%100%3%15%268%25%50%75%4%19%278%50%40%50%3%25%288%50%25%10%2%5%2915%50%10%-2%-3050%50%-3150%50%-3250%50%-335

313、0%50%-3450%50%-35100%100%-13.Repowered wind farms assumption represents proportion of original fleet which is repowered each year,i.e.out of all the wind farms installed in year 0,21%will be repowered.WindEurope is the voice of the wind industry,actively promoting wind power in Europe and worldwide.

314、It has over 500+members with headquarters in more than 35 countries,including the leading wind turbine manufacturers,compo-nent suppliers,research institutes,national wind energy associations,developers,contractors,electricity providers,financial institutions,insurance companies and consultants.This combined strength makes WindEurope Europes largest and most powerful wind energy network.Rue Belliard 40,1040 Brussels,BelgiumT+32 2 213 1811 F+32 2 213 1890windeurope.org