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1、GWEC.NETFROM LOCAL WIND POWER TO GLOBAL EXPORT HUB INDIA WIND ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 2023-2027SponsorGWEC.NET3DisclaimerCopyright August 2023This document contains forward-looking statements.These statements are based on current views,expectations,assumptions and information of the Authors.The Author
2、s and their employees and representatives do not guarantee the accuracy of the data or conclusions of this work.They are not responsible for any adverse effects,loss or damage in any way resulting from this work.Permissions and UsageThis work is subject to copyright.Its content,including text and gr
3、aphics,may be reproduced in part for non-commercial purposes,with full attribution.AttributionFrom local wind power to global export hub:India wind energy market outlook 2023-2027.Global Wind Energy Council and MEC+,2023.AuthorsSidharth Jain(MEC+);Swarnim Srivastava(MEC+);Disha Sodani(MEC+)Feng Zhao
4、(GWEC);Martand Shardul(GWEC);Francis Jayasurya(GWEC);Anjali Lathigara(GWEC);Joyce Lee(GWEC)Report DesignAspire Design,New DelhiImage creditsGWEC and partnersAcknowledgementsWe express our appreciation for providing insights and industry perspectives to this report to the following organisations:Dafa
5、 Group;Danhydra;GE Renewable Energy;KK Wind Solutions;Nibewind;Nissens Cooling Solutions:Resolux;Rewair;Synergy Green;TPI;Vena Energy;WEG;Windar RenovablesFrom local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-20274GWEC.NET5About MEC+MEC+,also known as MEC Intelligence,is a
6、 specialist consulting firm focused on the wind and renewables sector for the last 10 years.MEC+comprises a highly skilled team of consultants with a deep understanding of turbine technology,integration opportunities with battery,hydrogen,project supply chains in offshore and onshore wind,power mark
7、et design,financing/bidding/PPA structuring and regulatory market.MEC+engages with asset owners and supply chain companies on their investment and growth decisions.The support provided extends from building business plans,identification and mitigation of risks,and managing innovation and sales proce
8、sses at client organisations.In India,MEC+has supported multiple acquisitions in the market on both supply chain and asset platforms.MEC+also offers bidding support and strategy building for India.MEC+works with government entities to build a strong commercial understanding of areas related to wind
9、power.Working with GWEC as a knowledge partner on India,MEC+publishes the annual wind power market outlook and engages in multi-stakeholder discussions to promote wind power.Our clients include the largest global wind OEMs,utilities,oil and gas companies,Supply chain players,Equity funds,and Indepen
10、dent Service Providers.For further queries,please visit From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-20276About GWECThe Global Wind Energy Council(GWEC)is the global trade association for the wind power industry.Our mission is to ensure that wind power establishes
11、 itself as the answer to todays energy challenges,providing substantial environmental and economic benefits.We work closely with national governments,policymakers and international institutions to give them transparent information about the benefits and potential of wind power,enabling them to make
12、informed decisions about national energy policies.The members of GWEC represent over 1,500 companies,organisations and institutions in more than 80 countries.Our members are also all of the national wind industry trade associations,from both established and emerging markets,including the worlds larg
13、est markets of the US,all the European markets,India and China.GWEC is actively engaged with emerging markets to unlock their wind potential with proven successes in Latin America,Africa,India and also Southeast Asia.GWEC also works at the highest international political level to create a better pol
14、icy environment for wind power.Working with the UNFCCC,REN21,the IEA,international financial institutions,the IPCC and IRENA,GWEC advocates for policies to help wind power reach its full potential in as wide a variety of markets as possible.GWEC India was established in 2020 as a single advocacy and
15、 research body representing the entire value chain of Indias wind industry.GWEC India works closely with government stakeholders,companies and adjacent technologies to accelerate the momentum around wind power development in India and support the country in achieving its ambitious renewable energy t
16、argets.For further queries please visit or contact .GWEC.NET7ContentsTables,Figures and Boxes 8Abbreviations 9Definitions 11Foreword 13Executive Summary 211.Indias wind energy sector:Background 252.Indias wind pipeline 293.Winds position in Indias energy transition 334.Looking ahead to offshore wind
17、 development 395.The onshore wind outlook in India:2023-2027 416.Expanding the Indian supply chain for the export market 457.Rising up to global supply chain opportunities 518.Conclusion and recommendations for policymakers 61Appendix 67From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Ma
18、rket Outlook 2023-20278Tables,Figures and Boxes Table 1:Onshore wind demand and nacelle supply benchmark between CY 2023 to CY 2030 46Table 2:Standard taxes for wind turbine manufacturing-India vs China 58Figure 1:YoY onshore wind,solar and hybrid installations between CY 2015 to CY 2022 26Figure 2:
19、Standalone onshore wind&hybrid projects-Central tenders from CY 2019 to CY 2023 30Figure 3:Standalone onshore wind&hybrid-State tenders between CY 2019 to CY 2023 31Figure 4:LCoE for standalone onshore wind and solar projects in India between 2020 to 2028 34Figure 5:Status of grid availability for o
20、nshore wind by CY 2027 and CY 2030 36Figure 6:Total RPO demand between FY 2023 to FY 2027 37Figure 7:India Offshore wind-different models and planned trajectory 40Figure 8:Forecast YoY new onshore wind installations in India between 2023 to 2027 43Figure 9:YoY global wind installation between CY 201
21、5 to 2022 and forecast between CY 2023 to 2027 45Figure 10:Global wind key component supply chain overview in 2022 47Figure 11:OEM wise onshore wind installation done in CY 2021 and CY 2022 in India 48Figure 12:Global product technology roadmap for onshore wind turbines by top 10 countries as per fo
22、recast installations 52Figure 13:Cost range of Chinese vs Indian onshore turbines 54Box 1:US Calls for Countervailing Duty on Indian Wind Energy OEMs 53Box 2:Capital expenditures on materials for onshore and offshore wind 55Box 3:Cost differentiation between Indian and Chinese casting manufacturing
23、56GWEC.NET9AbbreviationsAMPCAdvanced Manufacturing Production CreditADAntidumping dutyALMM Approved List of Models and Manufacturers BCDBasic Custom DutyCYCalendar YearCUFCapacity Utilisation FactorCAPEXCapital ExpenditureCEACentral Electricity AuthorityCTUILCentral Transmission Utility of India Lim
24、itedCMCT City Maintenance&Construction Tax C&ICommercial&Industrial CAGRCompound Annual Growth RateCCDCConcessional Custom Duty Exemption Certificate COPConference of PartiesCITCorporate Income TaxCVDCountervailing DutyCRMA Critical Raw Materials ActDISCOMDistribution CompanyEU European UnionFYFinan
25、cial YearGWGigawattGWECGlobal Wind Energy CouncilGSTGoods and Services TaxGUVNLGujarat Urja Vikas Nigam LimitedIPPIndependent Power ProducerINRIndian RupeeIRAInflation Reduction ActIEAInternational Energy AgencyIGSTInterstate Goods and Services TaxISTSInter-State Transmission SystemkWhKilowatt-hourL
26、ATAMLatin America LCOE Levelised Cost of EnergyL1Lowest priceMWMegawattMEISMerchandise Exports from India Scheme MNREMinistry of New&Renewable EnergyMOPMinistry of PowerNIWENational Institute of Wind EnergyNTPCNational Thermal Power CorporationOWOffshore WindOEMOriginal Equipment ManufacturerPLFPlan
27、t Load FactorPPAPower Purchase AgreementPGCILPower Grid Corporation of India LimitedPLI Production Linked IncentiveRoDTEPRemission of Duties or Taxes on Export Products Scheme RE Renewable EnergyRPORenewable purchase ObligationRfSRequest for SelectionRLMMRevised List of Models&ManufacturersRTCRound-
28、the-clockSECISolar Energy Corporation of India LimitedUK United KingdomUSAUnited States of AmericaUMCT Urban Maintenance&Construction TaxVAT Value Added TaxWTGWind Turbine GeneratorYoY Year on YearFrom local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NET11Decarb
29、onisationDecarbonisation tends to refer to the process of reducing carbon intensity,lowering the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the burning of fossil fuels.Generally,this involves decreasing CO2 output per unit of electricity generated.Hybrid Projects/tenders Energy projects that use
30、 two or more energy sources for power generation.For example,SECI Hybrid Projects use solar and wind in combinationNet Zero A target of completely negating the amount of greenhouse gases produced by human activity,to be achieved by reducing emissions.Renewable Purchase Obligation(RPO)Under Section 8
31、6(1)(e)of the Electricity Act 2003 and theNational Tariff Policy 2006,Renewable purchase obligation(RPO),is a mechanism by which the obligated entities are obliged to a purchase certain percentage of electricity from Renewable Energy sources,as a percentage of the total consumption of electricity.Di
32、stribution Licensee A licensee authorised to operate and maintain a distribution system for supplying electricity to the consumers in his area of supply.Supply Chain A supply chain is a network of individuals and companies who are involved in creating a product and delivering it to the end user cust
33、omers or other businesses.Pipeline/pipelining Pipelining is an ongoing,continuous process in which new instructions,or tasks,are added to the pipeline and completed tasks are removed at a specified time.Calendar Year The period of time beginning on January 1 and ending on December 31 of each year.Fi
34、nancial Year FY is a 12-month accounting period starting from April 1 and ending on March 31 of each year.Base case scenario The base case refers to a fundamental or standard scenario that is used as a starting point or reference for analysis,decision-making,or evaluation.It represents the most like
35、ly or realistic situation based on the available information and assumptions.The base case serves as a benchmark against which other scenarios or variations can be compared or assessed.Ambitious case scenario An ambitious case scenario refers to a situation or projection that assumes favourable or p
36、ositive outcomes.It is a best-case or highly positive.It represents an idealistic view of the future with the belief that conditions will be highly favourable and result in the best possible outcomes.Conservative case scenario A conservative case scenario refers to a situation or projection that ass
37、umes unfavourable or negative outcomes.It represents a cautious or sceptical view of the future,with the belief that circumstances will be challenging and result in the least favourable outcomes.DefinitionsFrom local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NE
38、T13Ben BackwellCEO,Global Wind Energy CouncilForewordAs temperatures reach record-highs around the world this year,there is gathering momentum among governments for the global energy transition.Global renewable energy capacity must triple by the end of the decade to at least 11 TW to keep a 1.5C win
39、dow alive.This calls for an unprecedented acceleration of large-scale wind and solar power to mitigate the most harmful effects of climate change.International leadership and cooperation will be critical to achieving this 2030 goal.This year,India presides over the G20 grouping of the largest econom
40、ies of the world representing 85%of global GDP and 80%of global carbon emissions.In this role,India can convene countries around the shared need to scale up wind energy,which is already transforming communities around the world with clean electricity,green jobs and an influx of public/private capita
41、l to propel economic growth.It must be clearly understood that renewables are not only the best solution we have to fight climate change,but also to drive sustainable development and industrial policy.Global leadership in the energy transition must begin at home for India.Already the fourth-largest
42、wind market in the world,India has tremendous potential to expand its domestic wind capacity.High-level targets have been set to reach 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030,including 140 GW of wind energy.But recent annual growth has been dampened,averaging 1.74 GW over the last five years,due
43、 to bottlenecks around grid,downward price pressure and land availability.As this report demonstrates,policy corrections could enable an ambitious scenario of more than 26 GW in wind installations over the next five years through 2027.Authorities are already taking promising steps to realise a faste
44、r pace of growth,such as revising the wind tender mechanism from a reverse-bidding model to a closed-envelope model earlier this year,and publishing a clear roadmap for annual auctions in 2024 split by agency and quarter.The strength of Indias domestic market will in turn determine whether the count
45、ry emerges as a power player in the wind industrys global supply chain.Given the expansive growth for wind power ahead,GWEC foresees that global supply chain constraints will materialise from 2026 onward,due to a gap between the sectors production capacity and forecast deployment pipelines.India can
46、 play a critical role here to ramp up manufacturing and export of wind components to supply the industry in Asia and beyond.Meanwhile,ongoing international dynamics geopolitical tensions,an inflationary environment and From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-
47、202714the lessons learned from the price spikes and bottlenecks of the pandemic have prompted countries to undertake a strategic shift to bolster local renewable energy supply chains.Industrial packages like the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Industrial Deal are designed to strengthen l
48、ocal supply chain investment and re-shore production activity.Against this backdrop of events,India has plenty of comparative advantages as a wind industry hub,such as an existing manufacturing base,favourable location for export and relatively attractive cost of labour.But to capitalise on Indias w
49、ind potential at home and its opportunities to become a global supply chain power,a few key actions will be needed:1.Enable the green open access market for the C&I segment,to ensure economic routes for energy-intensive users to access green electricity.2.Prioritise the resolution of operational and
50、 grid-related challenges with support for both ISTS and non-ISTS projects by state governments through a win-win partnership among key stakeholders.3.Ensure compliance of the wind RPO to support the uptake of wind power,and aggregate trajectories set by states to overall targets of the country.4.Con
51、sider logistics corridors and indexation to ease supply chain challenges in project implementation,and account for commodity price fluctuation to support the timely and cost-efficient commissioning of projects.5.Promote domestic innovation in wind manufacturing through innovation and R&D grants.A ta
52、rgeted production linked incentive(PLI)scheme for the wind sector could also incentivise investment in components to increase the vertical integration of the domestic manufacturing industry and improve quality of locally supplied components.6.Lower import duties on raw material and work-in-progress
53、goods for the wind sector to create a more regionally and globally competitive cost of manufacturing for India in the wind industry.It would also help to ease documentation and approvals for the duty drawback scheme and leverage Free Trade Agreements(FTAs)to design and implement wind exports corrido
54、rs for domestic manufacturers.7.Nurture an offshore wind ecosystem in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu to set the foundation to achieve the Government of Indias seabed lease tender trajectory of 37 GW in this decade.This years report theme “From local wind power to global export hub”conveys the strategic oppo
55、rtunities which India can seize if enhanced government ambition and a strong plan for implementation are in place.Scaling up the transition at home can then demonstrate the transformative social,environmental,industrial and economic benefits brought by wind and renewable energy to other G20 members
56、and countries.I heartily express congratulations to the GWEC and MEC+teams for this timely and relevant report.Finally,I extend GWECs support to the Government of India to host a successful G20 Leaders Summit later this year,and realise its renewable energy ambitions in this decade.GWEC.NET15As the
57、planet continues to warm and extreme weather conditions become more frequent,the need for radical collective actions to bend the emissions curve cannot be emphasized enough.In this spirit,the theme of Indias G20 Presidency,“Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”or“One Earth One Family One Future”,is an implicit mes
58、sage to build greater global consensus for climate action,including climate change mitigation.As per the IRENA Energy Transitions Outlook 2023,in the 1.5 degree scenario,global installed power generation capacity must have 77%and 94%of renewable energy in 2030 and 2050 respectively.The global deploy
59、ment of renewable energy sources including wind energy must increase multi-fold.IRENA has projected 2040 GW of onshore wind and 500 GW of offshore wind deployment by the end of this decade.Earlier GWECs Global Wind Report 2023,emphasized the historic milestone of 1 TW of global wind power deployment
60、 reached this year.Another TW is likely to be achieved within this decade.Translating these projections into reality implies proactive policymaking that will enable fast-paced tendering,commissioning of projects and a greater supply chain reliance.Under the leadership of Honble Prime Minister Narend
61、ra Modi Ji,India has undertaken decisive measures for enhancing the share of renewable energy in the generation mix,including wind energy which currently accounts for slightly more than 10%of the countrys overall power generation capacity.In 2023,the central government notified a trajectory to aucti
62、on 10 GW of annual wind capacity for the next few years this decade.The Ministry of Power notified“Guidelines for Tariff Based Competitive Bidding Process for Procurement of Firm and Dispatchable Power from Grid Sumant SinhaChairperson GWEC India,and Founder,Chairman and CEO,ReNewConnected Renewable
63、 Energy Power Projects with Energy Storage Systems”in June 2023.The centre also released a roadmap for strengthening the availability of the grid network for renewable energy capacity addition in this decade.It is worth commending how the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy(MNRE)has consistently be
64、en holding monthly meetings with central,state and industry stakeholders to address issues as well as to take feedback in order to accelerate deployment of wind energy projects.This edition of the India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 stresses the need for accelerated efforts by the industry an
65、d the government to achieve the 2030 target.As compared to the 140 GW target,several agencies have projected the likelihood of 100 GW of cumulative capacity due to various reasons that have been discussed in this edition.The Outlook also presses ForewordFrom local wind power to global export hub:Ind
66、ia Wind Energy Market Outlook for a greater balance between manufacturing for domestic and export markets.There is a need for facilitating targeted incentives,for example to the castings segment,for quality upgradation as well as capacity enhancement.Global Wind Energy Councils Global Win
67、d Report 2023 has already indicated likelihood of supply chain shortfalls in the US and Europe,and that the spare capacity in the industry being exhausted by 2026 if timely corrective measures are not undertaken through consensus-building.A renewed policy environment,likelihood of diversification of
68、 wind actions across high-potential states and a thrust on decarbonization in the C&I segments are certainly reasons for renewed optimism.Together,wind energy capacity addition and scale-up of manufacturing capacities shall further drive job creation and investment opportunities in the country.I con
69、gratulate the GWEC India and the MEC+teams for yet another enriching and relevant edition of the Outlook which spells out priorities for the wind sector in India and presents a comprehensive picture of interventions that must be convened collaboratively to drive sub-national,national,regional and gl
70、obal clean energy transition priorities.GWEC.NET17Indias wind power industry is poised to harness a number of opportunities.The prospects of growth in the domestic market and shift in the international supply chain requirements,provide an opportunity for Indian companies to increase their participat
71、ion in the global supply chain.Domestic volumes are on the up,and policy measures are in line with advocated changesIn 2022,the Indian market exhibited a robust expansion with the award of 4.7 GW tenders including standalone wind and wind-solar hybrid projects in state and central tenders.Between Ja
72、n to June 2023,nearly 3.5 GW tenders have been awarded and another 5 GW has been announced.The introduction of tenders by both central and state government agencies and the high engagement of C&I developers point towards promising growth.The government policy has emerged supportive of the requiremen
73、ts of developers.The central government has announced a Renewable Purchase Obligation(RPO)trajectory,a grid augmentation plan,and various measures to enhance pricing in wind tenders.This support has been complemented by the states commitment to wind procurement creating a transparent and sustainable
74、 pipeline.New growth pillars towards 2030 are emerging,but short-term execution challenge forecastsThe development of the offshore wind market and the hydrogen ecosystem in India are emerging as key drivers for growth.Together,these advancements lay the foundation for a vibrant industry,setting the
75、stage for a target of creating a 10 GW market for wind installations in India by 2030.However,our analysis adopts a more conservative approach,as some of these policies are still under development,estimating the market to reach the 5 GW range due to potential challenges such as:Delays that happen in
76、 transmitting the central level policies to DISCOMs Local issues that significantly impact the cost of land,evacuation,and transportation of turbines along with high costs of equipment Issues regarding uniformity of open access rules India is in a favorable position among global supply chain shifts
77、The global emphasis on climate change has increased the demand for RE projects.The lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic have underscored the need to diversify and expand the existing supply chain.India,with its strategic geopolitical position and scale,has become a ForewordSidharth JainFounder
78、 and CEO,MEC+From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook prime destination for global players seeking to establish a manufacturing base.This trend is likely to strengthen as the enabling ecosystem develops in India.Supply chain requires infrastructure and s
79、cale to emerge as one of the top 2-3 manufacturing locations globallyTo fortify this opportunity,enhancing the supply chains competitiveness is paramount.Over recent years,domestic volume constraints have compelled companies to pivot towards export of components.But as domestic volumes potentially t
80、riple from a three-year average of 1.5 GW to 4-5GW,and the demand for diversified wind component exports grows,the focus must shift towards reinforcing the supply chain.In this edition of the report,we have delved into the various issues that are on the mind of supply chain companies considering exp
81、orts and upgrade of capabilities.We present a comprehensive overview of the opportunities,the barriers to succeed,and why is now the time for the industry.Our recommendations for the industry include:Ensuring that domestic market expands to encourage high volume and competitive production of tier-2
82、wind components and raw materials Creating Free Trade Agreements and refining tax and documentation procedures to get competitive access to raw materials and technologies Improving the ability to access to technology required to build next level models Reviewing and improving infrastructure to facil
83、itate the transportation and storage of the large sized components Through a combination of insightful analysis and industry feedback,this report aims to provide an understanding of the wind power trajectory in India and the avenues available for the industry.We hope as you delve into the report,you
84、 get equipped to navigate the realities.GWEC.NET19The pursuit of net-zero emissions and the drive for energy security are propelling the global revolution towards renewables.Leading this movement is India,the fourth-largest country in terms of renewable energy capacity.With 42%of its total energy ca
85、pacity coming from non-fossil fuel sources,India has firmly established itself as a leader in advancing the transition to clean energy.This transformation is underpinned by a combination of progressive policy support,robust public-private partnerships,and the rapid growth of Indias manufacturing cap
86、abilities.The goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 is reshaping Indias energy landscape.Wind energy has emerged as a key catalyst for growth,contributing a substantial 43GW to the countrys energy portfolio and registering a two-fold growth rate in the last decade.This success underscores Ind
87、ias increasing prowess in wind energy manufacturing.The governments recent policy aimed at adding 10GW of wind energy capacity annually until 2030 has further provided significant momentum to the industry.The shift from the reverse bidding mechanism is also expected to accelerate the pace of install
88、ations.Moreover,the integration of green hydrogen production with wind energy has opened new avenues for the sectors advancement.Building upon these positive developments,the wind industry is optimistic about its pivotal role in helping India achieve its climate objectives.Looking to the future,new
89、opportunities will accelerate the progress of the wind energy sector.Indias extensive 7,600 km coastline presents an untapped opportunity for offshore wind energy.Further,policy initiatives aimed at establishing renewable energy parks can expedite the setup of necessary infrastructure.Additionally,a
90、dvancements in large-scale battery storage research are crucial to address the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources.I appreciate the efforts of GWEC for driving renewable energy advocacy globally and in India in particular.I congratulate GWEC and MEC+in releasing“India Wind Energy Market
91、Outlook 2023-27,”which provides a crucial overview and insights about wind energy in India.By fostering strong collaboration between government,industries,and institutions,we can accelerate the widespread adoption of wind energy.The upcoming decade offers a pivotal window for the Indian wind industr
92、y to translate intentions into tangible actions.Together,we can make significant strides toward reaching the milestone of net-zero emissions!ForewordKane XuChairman,Envision Energy IndiaFrom local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NET21Executive Summary
93、The long-term growth and health of Indias economy will depend on access to clean,reliable,and affordable power for all,as well as a strong manufacturing sector to support the renewable energy industry.This years wind energy outlook outlines Indias multiple domestic and international opportunities to
94、 capitalise on wind market growth and drive progress towards these goals.Indias wind market status and trendsIn 2022,India installed 1.8 GW of onshore wind capacity lower than the 2.2 GW in the conservative case of the previous edition of this outlook report.The shortfall was due to nearly 400 MW of
95、 project commissioning shifting from end of 2022 to March 2023,due to grid readiness and Right of Way issues.The capacity added during 2022 is an increase of 300 MW from 2021,and an increase of 500 MW from 2020.This brings cumulative installations of wind energy in India to 41.9 GW,as of December 20
96、22.India issued 10.4 GW of wind and standalone tenders in 2022,of which 4.7 GW was awarded,including 2.9 GW from central auctions and 1.8 GW from state auctions.The central pipeline for 2022 could have been higher if the L1+2%criteria was waived,as 700 MW of tenders could not be awarded due to price
97、 mismatch criteria.A welcome trend during 2022 was the inclusion of state tenders in the above pipeline after a long time GUVNL and Kerala awarded standalone wind tenders1 and hybrid tenders were announced by Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra and Delhi.The outlook to 2027As outlined in Sections 4 and 5 on
98、the market outlook for onshore and offshore wind,Indias active wind pipeline at the end of June 2023 stood 1 Kerala tender later cancelled 60 MW wind project by KSEBLat 12.9 GW(including standalone wind and estimated wind component of hybrid tenders),with 10.7 GW from central tenders and 2.2 GW from
99、 state tenders.Renewable Purchase Obligations(RPO)of Distribution Companies(DISCOMS)and the central government trajectory will drive the growth of wind installations.The Ministry of Power(MoP)has given an RPO target to DISCOMs of estimated 57.5 GW by 2027;33.1 GW is already installed as of 2022,lead
100、ing to a gap of 24.4 GW which needs to be fulfilled by 2027.State regulators have already set an RPO target of 19 GW,against which the state DISCOMS have committed to procure 17 GW from wind so far.These numbers will fuel future tenders and lead to further increase of the pipeline.To give clarity on
101、 scale,during 2023 the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy(MNRE)announced a bidding trajectory of 50 GW renewable From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook auctions per year until FY 2028.Out of these auctions,10 GW of exclusive tenders were carved out f
102、or wind and designated implementing agencies with a calendar of implementation.Planning is underway for multi-fold GW upgrade of transmission infrastructure.The government plans to take up the grid infrastructure available to wind to 111 GW by 2030.Out of this,94 GW is planned to be made available b
103、y 2027,34 GW is already under construction and 6 GW is available.Combining the existing pipeline of 12.9 GW,RPO obligations,bid trajectory announcements,and grid planning,Indias wind market in likely to see an upswing in coming years.However,considering the past experience of time taken to align pol
104、icy and budgets,project delays,issues in Right of Way,and tight financing requirements,delays or even cancellations cannot be entirely ruled out.The total cumulative wind energy capacity in India by 2027 is expected to increase to 63.6 GW and could range from 59.3-68.1 GW,depending on several factor
105、s and conditions across this reports conservative case,base case and ambitious case scenarios.In terms of offshore wind,a strategy paper from MNRE in 2022 announced plans to award 37 GW in tenders towards 2030 in the states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.There are three models for offshore wind developme
106、nt that have been shared,which are explored in Section 4 of this report.Development of the offshore wind market and an emerging hydrogen ecosystem will complement growth of the wider wind industry,and propel wind into a more significant role in Indias power mix after 2030.Shaping India into a global
107、 export hub for wind powerCurrently,India has an estimated 11 GW of annual nacelle capacity.With capacity additions of nearly 5-6 GW projected,the market will still have spare capacity,which can be targeted towards the regional and global wind Figure I Onshore Wind Installation Forecast&Scenarios GW
108、26.2 GW17.4 GW21.7 GWScenario definitionsConservative caseBase caseAmbitious case3.13.94.44.23.53.32.25.15.04.54.34.95.65.75.720232024202520262027Installations 2023-27High paced scenario due to widening of demand and supply coming from timely executed pipelines,MOPs targets,opening of state demands
109、and grid utilization as well as high activity in C&I marketRegularly paced activities coming from 3-4GW of tenders/year,pipeline execution with some delays but majority completion(due to waivers)until 2025 and BAU activities in C&ISlow paced scenario due to slow uptake of new tender scheme;withdrawa
110、l of ISTS waiver and pipeline cancellations;C&I growth at same paceNote:As per calendar years;forecasts are inclusive of hybrid projectsSource:State Annual Revenue Requirement(ARR)under Tariff order published annually;RPO documents;Transmission system for integration of over 500 GW RE capacity by 20
111、30;MEC+AnalysisGWEC.NET23market.Annual global onshore wind installations are likely to increase from 69 GW in 2022 to 122 GW in 2027.The increase of 53 GW in nacelle assembly requirement can provide opportunities to build and export nacelles from India,particularly to serve the US market and new win
112、d geographies in the Asia-Pacific,Africa and Middle East regions.Beyond nacelles,there are attractive opportunities in components.Companies are heavily reliant on China for sourcing components:China accounts for 60%,65%and 75%of global supply chain for blades,generator and gearbox manufacturing.Indi
113、a is in a favourable position to expand as it already has a manufacturing base which provides nearly 11%,7%and 12%of the respective global manufacturing capacity for these components.Given the lessons learned in supply chain security from recent events,including the COVID-19 pandemic,ongoing China-U
114、S trade tensions and geopolitical risks,India can serve to mitigate supply chain issues for global manufacturers as a location for friendly shoring.However,challenges must be overcome to seize these opportunities.First and foremost,India needs to create a strong and sustainable domestic market;inter
115、actions with industry stakeholders for this report reflect that it is difficult to invest in a geography solely for export,when that country lacks a robust domestic market.Second,India must align manufacturing capabilities to overlap with global product portfolios and roadmaps.While towers and blade
116、s demonstrate significant overlap with global sizes,nameplate capacity needs to ramp up to align with global platforms.Third,India needs to demonstrate cost leadership to develop as a global export hub.Indian turbines are 30-60%more expensive than their Chinese counterparts in the same product class
117、.Indian turbines with majority imported components assembled in India are 30%more expensive than those manufactured in China,while locally manufactured WTGs come with a further 30%cost premium.Key here are differences in the cost of raw materials and access to components.Last,India needs to make its
118、 export incentives more accessible to boost export orientation.The current incentives for exports are difficult to access;the wind industry has highlighted a minimum 6-18-month cycle to secure the duty drawback on the paid duties for exported materials.The lengthy documentation process and multi-lev
119、el clearance prolong the process and impact working capital.These challenges can be mitigated as industrial scale increases and aligns to the regional and global demands for manufacturing.Section 8 of this report outlines several concrete recommendations for policymakers to reinvigorate the domestic
120、 wind industry and drive towards an ambitious case scenario for growth,as well as create the conditions for India to become a global export hub.As India pushes towards its 2030 renewable energy goal and its long-term target of net zero by 2070,wind power is poised propel the countrys economic growth
121、 and clean energy transition.This momentum can only be strengthened if the government of India undertakes a holistic strategy to shore up large-scale investment in the domestic market while accentuating its comparative advantages for the global export market.From local wind power to global export hu
122、b:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NET251.Indias wind energy sector:BackgroundIndia needs to meet its high-growth targets and climate goalsAccess to clean,reliable,and affordable power for all,from households to industrial consumers,is important to advance economic growth.This makes
123、the availability of adequate power infrastructure imperative for the long-term health of the Indian economy.Indias electricity demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7%until 20322,driven by factors such as the push for Make in India,rapid urbanisation,and economic growth.The Government of India has
124、 also announced an ambitious set of goals for climate change mitigation and the clean energy transition during the 2 Report on 20th Electric Power Survey of India(EPS)Volume I,published in November 2022COP26 summit held in November 2021 “Panchamrit”,which includes3:500 GW of installed renewable ener
125、gy by 2030,which includes 280 GW of solar power and 140 GW of wind power;50%of energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030;The reduction in total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes between 2022 and 2030;The reduction of the carbon intensity of the economy by 45%by 2030;and Achievi
126、ng the target of net zero by 2070.3 National Electricity Plan(NEP)Volume I(Generation),published by CEA in March 2023More than one-third of Indias electricity capacity comes from wind powerBy the end of 2022 with eight years to go to reach these targets total installed power generation capacity4 in
127、India stood at 410 GW,out of which 121 GW was from renewable sources(excluding large hydro)amounting to 30%of total installations.Out of the total renewable energy installed,wind contributes 35%(41.9 GW,including 9 GW from the C&I segment),second to solar5.This makes India the fourth-largest wind ma
128、rket in the world,in terms of cumulative installed capacity.In 2022,the total wind installations added were 1.8 GW(see Figure 4 As on 31st Dec 2022,India installed capacity of power stations(Utilities)Monthly report published by CEA5 Solar contributes 52%(63.30 GW)in total renewable energy installed
129、(As on 31st Dec 2022 as per CEA monthly installed capacity report)1).This contrasts with activity in the solar sector,which installed 12.9 GW in 2022 and saw rapid YoY growth primarily due to technological advancements leading to lower costs.To revitalise the wind pipeline in India,the government ha
130、s made a series of interventions in 2022 and early 2023.In July 2022,MNRE notified the MOP of the RPO trajectory until FY 2030,with a specific carve-out for wind RPOs increasing from 0.81%6 in FY 2023 to 6.94%in FY 2030.The move was designed to create a separate demand bucket for wind from other ren
131、ewable energy sources.To support this schedule,the ministry further revamped the auction mechanism for wind.In January 2023,the government eliminated the reverse bidding mechanism7 for 6 Only projects commissioned post March 2022 to be qualified for wind RPO7 MNRE notification:https:/mnre.gov.in/img
132、/documents/uploads/file_f-00.pdf From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook .61.13.64.14.18.02.38.22.48.51.13.71.511.914.01.50.41.81.112.9HybridSolarWind2000212022Adani commissioned 3 hybrid projects of 1.5 GW in total in
133、2022Note:Only Utility scale hybrid projects are considered which includes Adani green energy 3 hybrid projects in FY2022-Hybrid II in Rajasthan of 600MW(September);Tranche I in Rajasthan of 390 MW(May);Adani Renewable Energy Holding Nineteen Private Ltd.of 450 MW(December)Source:CEA report All India
134、 installed capacity of power stations(Utilities);Report on under construction Renewable energy projects by CEA;CTUIL report 2023;MEC+analysisFigure 1:YoY onshore wind,solar and hybrid installations between CY 2015 to CY 2022 GWGWEC.NET27onshore wind tenders and moved to a single-stage two-envelope b
135、idding mechanism to avoid aggressive bidding creating extreme downward price pressure and utilise wind potential through state-specific auctions8.Consequently,at the end of March 2023,the government announced a bidding trajectory of 50 GW renewable auctions9 per year until FY 2028 to achieve the 500
136、 GW RE target for 2030.Of these,10 GW of exclusive tenders were carved out for wind10.MNRE also designated11 SECI,NTPC,NHPC and SJVN as Renewable Energy Implementing Agencies(REIAs)12 for this bidding trajectory and outlined the calendar for auctions in FY 2024 by agency,quarter and technology.In Q1
137、,2.5 GW of wind 8 Guidelines for Tariff Based Competitive Bidding Process for Procurement Power from Grid Connected Wind Power Projects was notified on 26 July 2023.9 PIB notification:https:/www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1913789 10 Not clearly stated if it includes onshore only or onshor
138、e+offshore wind.11 Office memo:https:/mnre.gov.in/img/documents/uploads/file_f-70.pdf 12 GWECs publication“Accelerating Onshore Wind Capacity Addition in India to Achieve the 2030 Target”,released in 2022,pressed for 8-10 GW of annual tender and designation of public sector entities,beyon
139、d SECI,for administering wind tenders.The publication discussed slowdown in wind capacity addition during the reverse auction regime.tenders are to be issued by SECI13,which has specified the Maximum Capacity to be awarded under the RfS in 5 states(TN,KA,TS,AP and MH).Tapping into Indias world-class
140、 wind potentialIndia has an estimated 214 GW onshore wind energy potential,with over 30%CUF which must be exploited to drive climate action,energy security,and clean energy ambitions.The revised tender regime gives a renewed thrust to the wind sector to tap into this resource and recover from the sl
141、owdown in installations experienced in recent years.13 Notice Inviting tender:https:/www.seci.co.in/Upload/New/638209803994394872.pdf From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NET29As of June 2023,India has a pipeline of 12.9 GW projects awarded as w
142、ind standalone or wind component of hybrid projects.Of this volume,10.7 GW are from central tenders and 2.2 GW are from state tenders.Renewed interest in recent tendersIn 2022,the total tenders issued for standalone wind&hybrid projects stood at 10.4 GW,higher than the 9.2 GW as of December 2021.Out
143、 of this volume,which included standalone wind and hybrid tenders,4.7 GW tenders were awarded.The central government auctioned 2.4 GW of tenders14,15 in 2022 for standalone installations,which were oversubscribed continuing the trend from 2021(see Figure 2).Out of this,1.7 GW was awarded.The gap 14
144、SECI 1200 MW ISTS connected wind power project Tranche XII15 RfS for setting up of 1200 MW ISTS connected wind power project Tranche XIIIbetween auctioned and awarded capacity is attributed to stringent criteria of L1+2%16,where bids above the criteria were simply rejected.Easing this criteria would
145、 have led to an additional 0.7 GW in the pipeline.During 2022,central auctions for hybrid projects saw a surge of interest from developers.In the year,5.7 GW of hybrid tenders were announced of which 1.2 GW was awarded.These were:SECI 1.2 GW ISTS connected wind-solar hybrid project-Tranche V17 was a
146、nnounced and awarded.RTC III(2,250 MW),PTC pan India(1,000 MW)and SECI Tranche IV-Peak Power(1,200 MW)were issued in 2022 but not yet awarded.16 Undersubscribed tender SECI tranche XIII 1200 MW ISTS connected wind power project17 SECI 1200 MW ISTS connected wind-solar hybrid project Tranche V2.India
147、s wind pipelineSECI announced tranche XIV of wind of 1.2 GW in February 2023 and NTPC announced 1 GW wind project BoS tender in Gujarat in January 2023.Further,to achieve the target of 10 GW in wind tenders every year,the central government issued its first RfS in May 2023 for setting up 2.5 GW ISTS
148、-connected wind power divided into five states:Tamil Nadu,Karnataka,Telangana,Andhra Pradesh,and Maharashtra.18 Out of the 4.7 GW of announced standalone wind tenders in 2023,only SECI wind tranche XIV has been awarded for 0.7 GW as on June 2023.In addition to this,a hybrid tender-SECI hybrid tranch
149、e VI of 1.2 GW was awarded fully in April 2023.18 RfS for selection of wind power developers for setting up 2500 MW ISTS connected wind power projects in India under Tariff based competitive bidding(Tranche XV)From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook Fig
150、ure 2:Standalone onshore wind&hybrid projects-Central tenders from CY 2019 to CY 20234.2200222023*20022*2023*3.52.12.51.11.03.95.82.42.46.01.74.71.20.72.42.51.92.87.72.84.36.21.55.74.41.21.21.22.3Standalone Wind-Tenders announced vs capacity awardedGWHybrid-Tenders announced vs
151、 capacity awardedGWTender issued Volume subscribedVolume AwardedTender issued Volume subscribedVolume Awarded3142323241#of auctions#of auctionsNote:Total tender capacity for hybrid project has been considered,acual wind capacity for hybrid projects might different;Tenders issued till May 2023 are co
152、nsidered in CY 2023*:For CY 2023 standalone wind tender includes 22500 MW ISTS connected wind tender and NTPC 1 GW wind tender for which RfS has been issued,SECI Tranche-XIV of 1200 MW was awarded*:In case of hybrid tenders in 2022,4 tenders including RTC III(2250 MW),PTC pan India(1000 MW),SECI Tra
153、nche IV(1200 MW),Hybrid Tranche V(1200)has been issued,but only Hybrid tranche V was awarded in 2022*:In case of hybrid tender issued during CY 23,SECI hybrid tranche VI issued in April 2023 is consideredSource:SECI tender result announcement;GWEC auction database;MEC+auction database,MEC+AnalysisGW
154、EC.NET31Expanding state tender activity for wind power One of the key trends in 2022 was the re-opening of state volumes,largely muted since the start of central tenders.Altogether 0.5 GW of standalone wind and 1.25 GW of hybrid tenders were awarded(see Figure 3).In 2022,one standalone wind tender,G
155、UVNL-500 MW,was issued and awarded.Kerala also issued a 60 MW tender,of which only 35 MW was awarded and later cancelled19.On the hybrid front,3 states issued hybrid tenders which totalled to 1.25 GW in 2022,and all were fully subscribed:Madhya Pradesh 0.75 GW20,Maharashtra 0.25 GW21 and Delhi 0.25
156、GW22.In 2023,Gujarat continued the momentum by issuing two more standalone wind tenders:GUVNL Tranche IV and V of 300 MW and 500 MW in January and May 2023.Gujarat has been issuing wind tenders since 2017,while other states began to reconsider wind tenders in 2022 after 19 KSEBL 60 MW wind project,K
157、erala20 RUMSL 750 MW wind-solar hybrid power projects 21 MSEDCL 250 MW hybrid project22 Tata Power Delhi Distributions(TPDDL)255 MW hybrid projectFigure 3:Standalone onshore wind&hybrid-Total state tenders announced vs capacity awarded1.00.50.50.80.90.30.60.70.20.30.50.5200222023*30111.00
158、.20.51.82.80.90.21.42.71.40.20.20.51.31.212022*2023*11144Tender issuedVolume subscribedVolume AwardedTender issuedVolume subscribedVolume Awarded2Standalone Wind Tenders announced vs capacity awardedGWHybrid Tenders announced vs capacity awardedGW#of auctions#of auctionsNote:Total tender
159、capacity for hybrid project has been considered,actual wind capacity for hybrid projects might different;Tenders issued till May 23 are considered for CY 2023*:Standalone wind tender issued in CY23 includes GUVNL Tranche IV and GUVNL Tranche V tender was issued and awarded,but volume of both the ten
160、ders got undersubscribed*:Hybrid tender of CY22 also includes GUVNL Phase XV of 500 MW which was issued but not yet awarded*:Under state hybrid project total 5 tenders are issued in CY23 including REMCL RTC Pan India 1000 MW,CESC Kolkata 150 MW,AEML 1500 MW,RUVNL 1500 MW(Cancelled)and West Bengal DI
161、SCOM 150 MW out of which only REMCL(950 MW)and CESC(150 MW)has been awarded by June 2023Source:GUVNL;TANGEDCO;MSEDCL;RUMSL;TPDDL;REMCL;CESC;GWEC auction database;MEC+auction database;MEC+AnalysisFrom local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook the introduction o
162、f national wind RPO targets.The focus of other states on hybrid tenders continued in 2023,wherein nearly 4.3 GW tenders were issued by various bodies:Railways(1 GW REMCL)and West Bengal(150 MW CESC),Mumbai(1.5 GW AEML)and Rajasthan(1.5 GW RUVNL)contributed to these tenders.Of this,1.1 GW was awarded
163、 in REMCL and CESC West Bengal,while the 1.5 GW tender from RUVNL was cancelled.This shows that the evolution of tender conditions and government support for hybrid projects have led to increased state auction activity.GWEC.NET333.Winds position in Indias energy transition India needs accelerated de
164、ployment and commissioning of wind power projects if it is expected to achieve 140 GW of wind capacity by 2030,and advance towards the long-term goal of net zero by 2070.The three major drivers of wind growth in India are:Cost competitiveness of wind in the overall mix;Dedicated grid infrastructure
165、for integration;Compliance of wind RPO targets by states and other obligated entities;and Acceleration in C&I sector demand.While these will push onshore wind capacity additions,beyond 2030 progress on offshore wind will further propel winds position in the overall power mix.With the increasing popu
166、larity of solar and wind hybrid projects in the C&I market23,penetration of wind in the power mix is likely to increase.However,a recent report24 from the Central Electricity Authority(CEA)indicates that a more cumulative installed capacity of 100 GW might only be achieved by 2030 as 23 Jindal Steel
167、 and ReNew have joined hands to commission a 300 MW hybrid power plant;Amazon is setting up a cumulative 300 MW wind-solar hybrid project in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka with Vibrant Energy.Tata Power Renewable Energy Limited(TPREL)and Tata Power Delhi Distribution Limited(Tata Power-DDL)have partne
168、red to set up a hybrid project with an expected 340 MW wind capacity;Also,Amplus Solar and EverRenew have been reported to build a 200 MWp open-access wind-solar power plant in Tamil Nadu.Tata Power has reported that the Tata Power Renewable Energy subsidiary has received a Letter of Award to set up
169、 a 966 MW Round-the-clock(RTC)Hybrid Renewable Power Project for Tata Steel.Similarly,KPI Green has been reported to have received a letter-of-intent for executing a Wind-Solar Hybrid Power Project of 40 MW(with 21.50 MW wind power)capacity from Anupam Rasayan India,Gujarat.Amp Energy India is likel
170、y to set up a 150 MW hybrid power project for CESC Limited.24 Report on Optimal Generation Mix 2030 Version 2.0 by CEA,published in April 2023compared to the central governments target of adding a cumulative 140 GW installed wind energy capacity by 2030.In the meanwhile,the National Institute of Win
171、d Energy(NIWE)has released“Indias Wind Potential Atlas at 150 Above Ground Level”and has mapped a 1164 GW of technical wind power generation potential in pan India.Cost competitiveness of wind energy in IndiaThe average cost of conventional energy-based power is reportedly higher than the power tari
172、ff from wind,making wind power already competitive with traditional power sources25.However,wind generation costs in the country have recently increased.25 Accelerating Onshore Wind Capacity Additions in India to Achieve the 2030 Target,Global Wind Energy Council,2022.Bids for standalone wind in Tra
173、nche XIV in June 2023 were awarded in the range of INR 3.18-3.24 per kWh as compared to tenders awarded in 2020 which lies in the range of INR 2.99-3 per kWh.India saw a 10-12%jump in generation costs26 of wind projects between 2020 and 2022,causing the LCOE to increase from INR 2.8-3.3 per kWh in 2
174、020 to INR 3.2-4.1 per kWh.This can be attributed to rising raw material costs in the supply chain,including steel(which comprises over 70%of raw material used for turbines)27 and aluminium,logistic bottlenecks,an inflationary environment and fairly high taxes levied on wind turbines.Combining this
175、cost increase with varying CUFs based on the location of projects produces a range of LCOE for wind power.26 LCoE number is based on MEC+analysis.27 Cost of wind energy Review 2015,National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2
176、For average sites located at Wind Zones II&III(WPD between 250 and 400 W/m2)28,an average CUF of 31%29 and 3.4 MW wind turbines generally carries an LCOE of INR 4.1/kWh.For the best sites located at Wind Zones IV(WPD above 400 W/m2),a CUF of 37%30 would generally carry an LCOE of INR 3.2/k
177、Wh in 2022.The solar supply chain faced similar pressures in 2022,primarily due to a hike in polysilicon prices post-2020 owing to manufacturing bottlenecks in China.Certain policy interventions in India31and high demand for solar panels kept prices high until Q1 2023.As polysilicon manufacturing ha
178、s returned to normal levels,the price of solar cells and modules is expected to decline.The drop in the cost of wind power is likely to be less than that of solar towards 2028,as an exponential decrease in the cost of steel and aluminium is not foreseen in the near future.It is projected that wind p
179、ower 28 WPD:Wind Power Density,Petition for seeking revision in wind zone by MEDA with respect to wind power projects29 Lazards Levelised Cost of Energy analysis Version 15.0(Page 10)30 Wind repowering in India:Potential,Opportunities and Challenges by USAID31 MNRE order forALMMof Solar Photovoltaic
180、 modules2.82.43.22.42.43.02.32.82.22.53.32.94.12.83.92.73.72.63.43.2420262028SolarWindSource:Case study on C&I wind solar hybrid plant by JMK research;A 100%renewable power system across India by 2050 study by Wartsila and LUT University;Multiplying the Transition:Market-based solutions f
181、or catalyzing clean energy investment in emerging economies published by BNEF;MEC+LCoE Model;MEC+Analysis Figure 4:LCoE for standalone onshore wind and solar projects in India between 2020 to 2028 INR/kWhcosts will remain around INR 3.4/kWh by 2028(see Figure 4).Nevertheless,wind remains well positi
182、oned against conventional power,as coal plants LCoE in 2022 reportedly ranged from INR 5.2-6.2/kWhand expected to remain in the range of INR 4.8-6.0 per kWh towards 2028,due to soaring coal prices.This reflects a promising outlook for wind power projects in India.Gearing up grid infrastructure for w
183、ind powerThe total grid available to wind power projects in India comprises(a)grid capacity that is underutilized because of termination/non-execution of tendered renewable projects;(b)grid capacity that is under construction;and(c)grid capacity additions that have been planned for augmentation.To s
184、upport the wind pipeline,robust grid infrastructure is required to ensure that clean power can be efficiently transmitted to where it is needed.The central government has undertaken significant planning around grid needs.GWEC.NET35As of April 2023,there are 6.4 GW32 of margins available in ISTS subs
185、tation for new grid connection,where wind resource is above 6m/s at 150m hub height.In addition to this existing capacity,government has planned new capacity augmentation for wind power projects.This plan can be segmented in three parts:1.The 66.5 GW RE capacity integration33 plan for ISTS grid infr
186、astructure,planned by MNRE in 2018.As on December 2022,58 GW of planned grid capacity is under various stages of construction and is yet to be augmented.Of which,34 GW is relevant for wind projects given the wind resource.The 34 GW capacity under-construction comprise 14 substations in the states of
187、 Karnataka,Gujarat,Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra,and Tamil Nadu.2.The second part of grid planning is related to renewable energy parks and zone allocation,wherein 55 GW of capacity is planned for augmentation.Within 32 Based on a substation for resource above 6m/s at 150m hub height from the margins a
188、vailable at the existing ISTS substation;see status of margins available at existing ISTS substation for proposed RE integration as on 30th April 2023 by PGCIL33 https:/cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/1st_trans-1.pdfthis plan,12.6 GW capacity from Gujarat(Khavda Zone)and Leh RE parks are relev
189、ant for wind3.Lastly,the latest plan from the the CEAs“Transmission System for over 500 GW RE capacity by 2030”report34,58 GW of grid is planned for wind evacuation towards 2030,divided in 24 GW by 2025,17 GW by 2027 and 17 GW by 2030;distributed across 6 states of Rajasthan,Andhra Pradesh,Karnataka
190、,Telangana,Madhya Pradesh&Maharashtra for onshore wind and Gujarat and Tamil Nadu for offshore wind.34 Transmission System for over 500 GW RE capacity by 2030.Published by CEA,Ministry of Power,Government of India.From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-20273
191、6Figure 5 below illustrates the break-down grid availability by time period for wind power augmentation.It may be interpreted that an ISTS grid capacity of 94 GW may be available by 2027 and a total of 111 GW of ISTS grid capacity may be available by 2030,reflecting the overall step-up Figure 5:Stat
192、us of grid availability for onshore wind by CY 2027 and CY 203034.012.617.017.024.06.436.6111.094 GWExisting Capacity in ISTS substation as on 30th April 2023Under-implementation grid plan(500 GW RE Intergration plan)New grid planning(500 GW RE Integration plan)Part of RE capacity of 66.5 GW existin
193、g plan-under-implementationExisting ISTS S/s capacity for wind*Grid Availability between 2023-27*Additional grid for wind by March 2025*Additional grid for wind by December 2027Additional grid for wind by December 2030Grid availbility for wind augmentation by December 2030Khavada RE park:8.6 GWLeh R
194、E park:4 GW Note:Substation above 6ms/s resource at 150m hub height has been considered under existing pipeline*:Existing capacity of 6.4 GW coming from PGCIL S/s available margins database shows,5.4 GW of readily available pipeline and addition of 1GW with ICT augmentation on Kurnool*:Under the cat
195、egory of RE capacity of 66.5 GW to be integrated to ISTS network and mapping the resources available;Total 14 S/s falls into the category and the augmentation grant accounts to 34 GW*:Accounts for additional 13 GW coming from Khavada RE park:17.2 GW(assuming 50%wind component 8.6 GW)and Leh RE park:
196、4 GW wind(from 55 GW augmentation plan and 24 GW planned until March 2025 from 181 GW augmentation plan)Source:Transmission system for Integration of over 500 GW RE capacity by 2030 report by Ministry of Power;Report on optimal generation Mix 2030 version 2.0 by CEA;Status on margins available at ex
197、isting ISTS substations for proposed RE integration as on 30th April 2023 published by CTUIL;MEC+AnalysisPart of additional RE capacity of 236.58 GW to be integrated to ISTS networkin alignment between an expanded wind pipeline and grid infrastructure plans of the central government.GWEC.NET3733.157
198、.517.02.057.524.4 GWMOP target is calculated based on utility demand forecast done by EPSTotal wind installed in India Mar 23Budgeted wind installedState RPO wind installation MoP RPO target*Total RPO demand for wind installation in Discoms by 2027*9 GW deducted due to C&I usage16 StatesNote:Study f
199、or 16 states including 28 discoms who have procured wind energy from SECI and state based tenders since 2018*:9 GW installed wind by C&I excluded from total wind installations till Dec 2022*:Calculated based on total demand forecasted in 20th Electric Power Survey(EPS)report and wind installation of
200、 4.29%(MOP target)Source:SECI;GUVNL;MSEDCL;TANGEDCO;NTPC;MNRE;Renewable Purchase Obligation(RPO)and energy storage obligation trajectory till 2029-30;Report on 20th Electric Power Survey(EPS)in India(Volume I);MEC+analysis5.4Figure 6:Total RPO demand between FY 2023 to FY 2027The wind RPO as a deman
201、d driver in the utility sectorGrowing grid infrastructure will support the increased demand coming from the RPO mechanism under central and state governments.In July 2022,the MoP35 announced a new trajectory to 2030 with separate wind RPOs a welcome move to reignite wind power procurement in India.T
202、otal wind installations in India stand at 41.9 GW36 which includes 9 GW of C&I installations.Annual growth in the last few years has been relatively slow,averaging 1.74 GW from 2018 to 2022.According to state RPO targets,a capacity of 17 GW in the next four years is likely to be added(see Figure 6),
203、which more than doubles the annual installation rate to 4.25 GW.In the conservative scenario,if states execute on their committed renewable purchase capacity from annual plans,17.4 GW of wind will be installed by 2027.Additionally,if states were to align to the MoP trajectory,new wind installations
204、can 35 Renewable Purchase obligation(RPO)and energy storage obligation trajectory until 2029-30 by Ministry of Power(MoP)published on 22nd July 202236 India installed capacity of power stations by CEA as on 31st December 2022From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook
205、 go up to 24.4 GW between .This would mean an average annual installation of around 6.1 GW for the next 4 years,which is the most ambitious case,and this could lead to a total of 57.5 GW wind installed capacity at the end of 2027.Among the 28 states and 8 UT,4 states38 have ado
206、pted the RPO of MoP.The progress of these will determine whether the installed capacity will be higher or not.Delhi was the first to issue an RPO trajectory until 202639.Apart from Delhi,in the states of Rajasthan40 and Haryana,the respective Regulatory Commissions have notified wind RPOs.The state
207、of Bihar as well has made progress 37 Calculated based on demand projected in the 20th EPS report(Volume I)by CEA and multiplied by wind RPO trajectory set by MoP in document RPO and energy storage obligation trajectory until 2029-3038 States and UTs whose Regulatory Commissions have notified wind R
208、POs are Delhi,Rajasthan,Haryana and Bihar.39 https:/www.derc.gov.in/sites/default/files/DERC%20DRAFT%20RPO%20%26%20REC%20Regulation%2C%202023_First%20Amendment.pdf 40 Rajasthan Electricity Regulatory Commission(Renewable Purchase Obligation)Regulations,2023.Accessed online from https:/rerc.rajasthan
209、.gov.in/rerc-user-files/regulations on 31 July 2023 and Haryana Electricity Regulatory Commission(Terms and Conditions for determination of Tariff from Renewable Energy Sources,Renewable Purchase Obligation and Renewable Energy Certificate)Regulations,2021,(2nd Amendment)2022.Accessed online from ht
210、tps:/herc.gov.in/WriteReadData/Pdf/R20230103.pdf on 31 July 2023.on this front41.Hence,both wind power generating and non-wind power generating states have made progress on the wind RPO.Demand from the C&I market for windWind installations in India started on back of corporate procurement mechanism
211、back in 90s.However,given the lower per unit economics of solar as compared to onshore wind,solar has now become the first choice of C&I procurers to lower their electricity overheads and offset carbon emissions through least cost pathway.In 2022,300 MW of wind was installed in the C&I sector,signif
212、icantly higher than 100 MW in 2021,however,in the same period,3.4 GW of solar was installed in 2022 and 700 MW in 202142.The numbers indicate the preference of C&I consumers towards solar installations.41 “Bihar Electricity Regulatory Commission(Renewable Purchase Obligation,its compliance and REC F
213、ramework Implementation)(4th Amendment)Regulation 2022.Accessed online from https:/berc.co.in/orders/other-orders/2670-suo-motu-proceeding-for-4th-amendment-of-berc-renewable-purchase-organisation-its-compliance-and-rec-framework-implementation-regulations-2010-regulations-2010-4 on 31 July 2023.42
214、Mec+C&I project trackerPositive undercurrents are visible in the market,indicating the re-emergence of wind as the part of portfolio of corporate power procurement.In 2022,multiple corporates indicated the need of round-the-clock power,including a 1 GW tender from Indian railways for supply of round
215、-the-clock RE power with combination of wind,solar and energy storage.Additionally,nearly 2.3 GW of pipeline for hybrid projects in visible in the market currently,which can be calculated to be 700 MW to 1 GW of wind project pipeline for the sector.Multiple drivers are visible for uptake of wind in
216、the C&I sector including:Saturation of C&I consumers with 20-30%power consumption coming from solar,expansion beyond which is difficult without storage or supportive banking regulations;Central governments efforts to align the regulations and charges across states through Green Energy Open Access re
217、gulations;Indias focus on green hydrogen and other green derivatives,which will open up demand for round-the-clock power,with a major role for wind;and Opening of multiple revenue streams for developers in open access market,including exchange-based products,as well as tertiary43 and secondary reser
218、ve ancillary markets44.But sensitivity to state level charges,regulations,and continuous withdrawal of waivers,banking provision,especially for vanilla wind projects will keep the C&I outlook lumpy.Despite a huge potential,the market can swing between 200 MW to 700 MW in the coming 5 years,unless C&
219、I consumers needs become more specific to wind generation needs.43 Detailed Procedure for Tertiary Reserve Ancillary Service(TRAS)https:/testancillary.grid-india.in/assets/files/TRAS%20Detailed%20Procedure%20April_2023_Final_Website.pdf 44 Central Electricity Regulatory Commission(Ancillary Services
220、)Regulations,2022 https:/cercind.gov.in/Regulations/Ancillary-Service-Regulations-2022.pdf GWEC.NET394.Looking ahead to offshore wind developmentGlobally,India ranks fourth in installed onshore wind energy capacity45.While onshore wind power has been a backbone of the countrys RE journey,there is no
221、w growing domestic and international appetite to tap into Indias significant offshore wind resource.Harnessing the full potential of offshore wind energy will be needed to lever the country towards its net zero target by 2070.A strategy paper released by the MNRE in July 2022 announced the trajector
222、y to award 37 GW of offshore wind tenders towards 203046 in the 45 Global Wind Energy Council:GWEC database46 Strategy paper for establishment of offshore wind energy projects in India published by MNRE in 2022states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.The strategy includes:47Three models of offshore wind dev
223、elopment in India Model 1(1 GW):PPA award along with exclusive lease award based on quoted tariff/VGF requirement bid for Gujarat Zone B3.Model 2(divided into models 2A and 2B):Model 2A(24 GW)is for non-exclusive lease award on a first-come-first-served basis,for consequent procurement by the govern
224、ment through PPAs.Model 2(no stated volume)is for non-exclusive lease award rights on a 47 The authors note that a Revised Offshore Wind Strategy paper was released on 17 August 2023;the analysis in this section is based on the previous version of the strategy paper,and not the revised version.first
225、-come-first-served basis,for captive/open-access sales.Model 3(12 GW):Exclusive lease award based on the lease fee bid for captive/open access sales(no government-backed PPA)for Tamil Nadu.As shown in Figure 7,1 GW,24 GW,and 12 GW capacities are planned to be auctioned under models 1,2A,and 3,respec
226、tively.However,looking at the recent developments in the offshore wind areas in India,none of the capacities will come online in this reports forecast period of 2023 to 2027.From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook Figure 7:India Offshore wind-different
227、models and planned trajectory4321115512444FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FY28FY29FY3044555Model 1Model 2AModel 3India OW bidding modelsModel 22AModel 1Model 31 GW24 GW12 GW2BMNRE notified a trajectory for bidding out Offshore wind energy blocks from FY 23 to FY 30,cumulating to 37 GW in June3 models of OW deve
228、lopment are suggested in the strategy paperIndia OW Strategy paperPPA award along with exclusive lease award based on quoted tariff/VGF requirement bidNon-exclusive lease award on first-come-first-serve basis,for consequent procurement under model 1Non-exclusive lease award rights on first-come-firs
229、t-serve basis,for captive/open-access salesExclusive lease award based on lease fee bid for captive/open access sales Note:VGF Viability Gap Funding Source:Strategy Paper for establishment of offshore wind energy projects;MEC+analysisGWEC.NET415.The onshore wind outlook in India:2023-2027Wind instal
230、lations in India between 2023 to 2027 are forecast in three different scenarios:Ambitious case:High-paced scenario with total 26.2 GW installations.Acceleration driven by alignment of state RPOs to MOPs RPO targets,opening wider demand for wind,as well as acceleration in C&I related wind installatio
231、ns with corporates looking to expand beyond pure solar and more load following generation.Base case:Normal-paced scenario with 21.7 GW of installations driven by existing pipeline and continued current pace of tender award at 3-4 GW of new capacity award annually.The scenario expects a peak in the i
232、nstallations in the year 2025,due to tapering off of the ISTS charge waiver starting in June 2025.In the scenario,C&I installations related to wind also scale up from current levels,although slower than ambitious scenario.Conservative case:Slow-paced scenario estimating 17.4 GW installations,wherein
233、 the market takes some time to adjust to the new mechanism for bidding and demand for wind suffers a setback due to increased price of wind discovered in tenders.As for C&I related wind installations,a higher price of wind than solar continues to deter scale-up and the market remains at current pace
234、.In the base case,India is expected to install 21.7 GW by 2027.This installation rate could go up to 26.2 GW in the ambitious case and down to 17.4 GW in the conservative case(see Figure 8).Ambitious case analysis In the ambitious scenario,India installs 26.2 GW of onshore wind between 2023 and 2027
235、,reaching 68.1 GW onshore wind capacity by 2027.The 26.2 GW can be segmented into 23.4 GW coming from central and state tenders and 2.8 GW from the C&I sector wind installations.Of the volume coming from central and state tenders,12.5 GW is from existing pipeline(including 400 MW cancellations)and 1
236、0.9 GW from new tender awards.The scenario anticipates acceleration in the tender activity on back of the From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GW48 trajectory announced by the central government,leading to higher and faster new pipeline creation.A
237、lthough the scenario,does not anticipated successful 10+GW award annually,it does assume an acceleration in tender activity to award 10.9 GW in 2023 and 2024,all of which comes online by 2027.In order to achieve the scenario,it is critical for state RPO trajectories to align with the central MOP RPO
238、 trajectory,taking the demand to 24.4 GW for wind procurement until December 2027.Out of 26.2 GW additions in the scenario,C&I is expected to contribute 2.8 GW of installations,increasing from 300 MW in 2023 to 700 MW per year in 2027.The opening of voluntary offtakers for green power needs and glob
239、al renewable energy commitments remains crucial for achievement of this scale of activity.Base case analysisIn the base case,India is expected to install nearly 21.7 GW of wind capacity between 2023 and 2027,48 Accelerating Onshore Wind Capacity Additions in India to Achieve the 2030 Target,Global W
240、ind Energy Council,2022.reaching cumulative installation of 63.6 GW at the end of December 2027.Of the new installations,19.4 GW is expected to be contributed by central and state tenders while nearly 2.3 GW is from C&I-related wind installations.Out of the 19.4 GW capacity from central and state te
241、nders,the scenario assumes successful execution of the 12.5 GW existing wind pipeline in India including few cancellations,estimated to be in range of 400 MW.The existing pipeline is supported by 3 GW of new capacity awarded in 2023,which comes online in 2026,and 3.9 GW of new capacity award in 2024
242、,coming online in 2027.The scenario does not account for the impact of the 10 GW tender trajectory in the forecast period,as it is too early to anticipate the impact.A factor which inhibits overall ramp-up is delay in the adoption of MOP RPO trajectory within states.The current RPO trajectories and
243、targets of 16 states that are active buyers in wind auctions,aggregates to 19 GW,capping the demand from wind auctions in the market.Even if the central government were to auction 10 GW annual wind capacities,procurement beyond 19 GW would be a challenge.Secondly,but more pertinently,the tapering of
244、 ISTS charge waivers from June 202549 will impact the economics of the new wind tender capacities in the latter half of 2023 and 2024,since the capacities would be coming online after June 2025.Hence,the subscription of tenders and offtaker interest would be impacted,leading to installations peaking
245、 in this year,as the pipeline rushes to commission before the deadline.On the other hand,nearly 2.3 GW of capacity within 21.7 GW forecast in next five years,is expected to come from the C&I market.The interest in procurement of hybrid capacities has been gaining traction in the C&I market as they m
246、ove beyond meeting initial demand from solar.The base case assumes annual installations ramping from 300 MW per year in 2023 to 600 MW per year in 2027.To meet the upcoming demand,the central government has also planned ISTS grid infrastructure with an addition of 40.4 GW,assuming 6.4 49 Waiver of I
247、nterstate transmission charges on the transmission of electricity generated from solar and wind sources of energy under Para 6.4(6)of the tariff policy,2016GWEC.NET43Figure 8:Forecast YoY new onshore wind installations in India between 2023 to 2027 GW26.2 GW17.4 GW21.7 GWScenario definitionsConserva
248、tive caseBase caseAmbitious case3.13.94.44.23.53.32.25.15.04.54.34.95.65.75.720232024202520262027Installations 2023-27High paced scenario due to widening of demand and supply coming from timely executed pipelines,MOPs targets,opening of state demands and grid utilization as well as high activity in
249、C&I marketRegularly paced activities coming from 3-4GW of tenders/year,pipeline execution with some delays but majority completion(due to waivers)until 2025 and BAU activities in C&ISlow paced scenario due to slow uptake of new tender scheme;withdrawal of ISTS waiver and pipeline cancellations;C&I g
250、rowth at same paceNote:As per calendar years;forecasts are inclusive of hybrid projectsSource:State Annual Revenue Requirement(ARR)under Tariff order published annually;RPO documents;Transmission system for integration of over 500 GW RE capacity by 2030;MEC+AnalysisGW is currently in the pipeline,an
251、d 34 GW as part of 66.5 GW will be augmented by 2027.Conservative case analysisIn the conservative case scenario,onshore installations in the next 5 years reach 17.4 GW,and cumulative installations total 59.3 GW at the end of 2027.The 17.4 GW of installations are segmented into 16.4 GW of installati
252、ons via central and state tenders and 1 GW in the C&I sector.The 16.4 GW of installations within central and state tenders are driven by the delivery of 12.2 GW from the existing pipeline and 4.2 GW from new tender award.This scenario assumes a higher cancellation of projects in the existing pipelin
253、e by as much as 700 MW,leading to delivery of 12.2 GW from the existing pipeline of 12.9 GW.The cancellations arise from challenges in timely availability of land for projects and Right of Way issues,which increases the time for delivery to 36-42 months.In addition,the scenario assumes 4.2 GW of new
254、 tender capacity to be commissioned by 2027,lower than the base case,due to a change in tender rules and the time required for market to adjust.The conservative case assumes that the state will stick to its committed wind procurement volume of 17.4 GW as per respective RPO budgeting,capping the over
255、all volumes from offtaker side.In addition to 16.4 GW,1 GW is anticipated from the C&I market.The scenario assumes a continued current pace of 200 MW installations per annum in the mechanism until 2027.This is driven by the focus of C&I offtaker to secure the lowest cost in renewables contracts and
256、finding least cost of carbon abatement,as well as limitation of offtakers to those mandated by targets and not voluntary uptake.Given current market drivers,GWEC with MEC+believe that the base case forecast of 3.3 GW in 2023,3.9 GW in 2024,5.1 GW in 2025,5 GW in 2026 and 4.5 GW in 2027 seems most li
257、kely,leading to the cumulative installation of 21.7 GW in the forecast period.Additionally,this will lead to a total cumulative installed capacity of 63.6 GW in India by 2027.If India continues installations with the same average rate of 4.5 GW p.a.installations,then India could reach 77.1 GW of ons
258、hore wind by 2030.From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NET45The big picture:The global wind supply chainThe global power sector is witnessing a momentous transformation as the world moves towards a decarbonised future.Global RE installations hav
259、e increased at a rapid pace.According to GWECs Global Wind Report 2023,wind installations have grown by a CAGR of 3%over the last eight years(see Figure 9).The pace of growth is set to accelerate,spurred by net zero targets and an expanding coalition of countries committing to renewable energy.Sever
260、al countries have raised their national targets for wind power,as a means to increase energy security and combat climate change.GWEC forecasts that global wind installations could increase by 551 GW in the next five years.6.Expanding the Indian supply chain for the export market605349465588736997106
261、9074200202243202620276455545062425OffshoreOnshoreSource:GWEC Global Wind Report 2023Forecast of Global wind installation3%CAGR between CY2015 to 2022551 GWGlobal onshore wind installationFigure 9:YoY global wind installatio
262、n between CY 2015 to 2022 and forecast between CY 2023 to 2027From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook The key drivers for this are50:An anticipated 10-year installation uplift in the US,driven by the passage of the IRA(Inflation Reduction Act)and the na
263、tional goal to achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2035 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 205051(see Appendix).The EU has also set ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the REPower EU program,including up to 480 GW
264、of installed wind capacity by 2030.It aims to enhance energy security by achieving a share of 45%of renewable energy in the total energy consumed by 203052.Additionally,the EU Renewables Directive seeks to simplify and fast-track permitting procedures for climate-neutral industrial infrastructure,ma
265、ndating a two-year limit for new projects to attain administrative,grid connection and Environmental Impact Assessment permits.Efforts are also being made to reduce dependence on non-EU 50 GWEC Global Wind Report 202351 US net zero target by 205052 European Commission:Targets for renewablessources o
266、f raw materials and rare earth elements(REEs)under the Green Deal Industrial Plan(see Appendix).Many geographies like Vietnam,South Africa,China and Colombia are setting aggressive new targets for wind power.Additionally,some markets,including Turkey,UK and Sweden,are accelerating wind installations
267、.When comparing existing production capacities with expected onshore wind installations,GWEC concludes that the supply chain in China,India,and Latin America will have enough nacelle production capacity to meet demand through 2030(see Table 1).On the other hand,if countries such as US and Europe pri
268、oritise domestic manufacturing industries via“Made in the USA”or“Made in Europe”initiatives,these markets may face chronic production shortages as soon as 2026.Table 1:Onshore wind demand and nacelle supply benchmark between CY 2023 to CY 2030 Demand vs Supply analysis between CY 2023-2030(in MW)Ann
269、ual nacelle capacity 20232024202520262027202820292030Europe21,60014,50017,75018,92020,95023,29023,50024,00025,000USA13,6008,0009,00010,00013,00015,00017,00018,00020,000LATAM6,1505,8605,3625,2005,0505,0305,0005,0005,000China82,00060,00060,00060,00060,00060,00065,00065,00065,000India11,5003,4004,2004,
270、5004,7004,5004,5005,0005,000Rest of World3505,6199,95510,42413,56013,70514,00014,30015,000SufficientPotential bottleneckSource:GWEC Global Wind Report 2023GWEC.NET47Additionally,if we look beyond nacelle demand versus supply analysis,the problem is likely to be exaggerated due to a much higher depen
271、dence on imports at the sub-component level.Majorly subcomponents such as towers,gearboxes,generators,etc.,are imported(see Figure 10),highlighting the high degree of concentration of the global wind supply chain in a few geographies,with 70-80%of these components coming from China,India,Latin Ameri
272、ca and the rest of the world.A concentrated supply chain combined with domestic sourcing strategies are certain to generate bottlenecks.As shown in Figure 10,manufacturing of 60%of blades,65%of generators and 75%of gearboxes produced for the global wind power industry currently takes place in China.
273、In addition to these components,China controls the global supply chain for castings,forgings,slewing bearings,towers and flanges,with more than 70%global market share.A shift to“de-couple”or“de-risk”supply chain dependencies from China will take considerable time,learning and cost reduction curves,w
274、hich could slow down the deployment of wind energy in the meantime,or erode its cost-competitiveness versus conventional fuel sources.Although,the shift has already started to emerge,as per data published by US department of energy and Berkeley Lab analysis.In 202053,China contributed 13%in US impor
275、ts whereas India contributed 19%.Furthermore,in 2022,India 53 Land based wind market report:2021 Edition by US Department of Energy,Office of Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energydrastically increased its share to 24%whereas imports from China reduced to 4%.The shift indicates a changing trend in globa
276、l trade dynamics and highlights Indias growing importance as an export hub.Worldwide manufacturers are exploring opportunities to diversify the location of their manufacturing units with an aim to cut future supply chain risks due to geopolitical concerns,situations like COVID-19,and to capitalise o
277、n attractive incentives available in markets outside China.Status of the Indian wind supply chain India is witnessing a revolution in its domestic manufacturing capabilities due to various initiatives such as“Make in India”as well as“Atmanirbhar Bharat.”Currently,India has 11.5 GW of nacelle manufac
278、turing capacity located in the states of Karnataka,Maharashtra,Gujarat,and Tamil Nadu(see Figure 11).In 2016,the Government of India set a target of installing 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022,including 60 GW of wind power54 which 54 In 2016,Government of India plans to produce 175 GW of
279、renewable energy by 202214%11%60%65%22%12%1%75%12%7%3%3%1%7%7%Blade manufacturingGenerator manufacturingGearbox manufacturingChinaEuropeIndiaUSLATAMOther APACSource:GWEC Global Wind Report 2023Figure 10:Global wind key component supply chain overview in 2022From local wind power to global export hub
280、:India Wind Energy Market Outlook meant additions of 5 GW per year.This would have led to domestic manufacturing investments by OEMs55.However,the market has been muted since 2017 with the end of the FiT regime,and India only recorded an average commissioning volume of 1.74 GW from 2018-2
281、022.As Figure 11 shows,out of the total 11.5 GW,only 2 GW was utilised and installed in 2022.Most of the manufacturing capacity was underutilised due to lower volume in the domestic market and relatively low exports of nacelles from India.Suzlon and GE have significantly increased installations in 2
282、022 as compared to 2021,which increased the utilisation of their manufacturing capacities in India.SGRE has been a leading supplier and manufacturer in India and continues to show consistent results in terms of installations.Other OEMs including Envision,Inox Wind,Vestas and Senvion saw installation
283、s of 758 MW in 2022.Although wind manufacturing facilities are underutilised compared to current and forecast demand,a significant upside can be obtained in the domestic wind market.Maximum 55 Accelerating Onshore wind capacity addition in India to achieve the 2030 target by GWECwind power installat
284、ions per year under the base,conservative,and ambitious scenarios stand at 5.1 GW,4.4 GW,and 5.7 GW,respectively,which may still lead to underutilised manufacturing capacity in India.Therefore,this creates an avenue of export potential for manufacturers to enhance their position within the global wi
285、nd supply chain.Figure 11:OEM wise onshore wind installation done in CY 2021 and CY 2022 in IndiaOEMsFactoriesInstalled capacity(MW)-2021Export 93002383147670220Installed capacity(MW)-2022NADaman,Padubiri(KA),PuducherryMamandur(TNPune(MH)Chennai(TN)Bhuj(GJ),Una(HP),Barwani(MP)C
286、hennai(TN)Pune(MH)Baramati(MH)Note:KA-Karnataka;TN-Tamil Nadu;MH-Maharastra;MP-Madhya Pradesh;GJ-Gujarat;HP-Himachal Pradesh *:Installed capacity in year 2021 and 2022 is as per Calender Year(CY)Source:Company websites;Directory India wind power 2022 by Consolidated Energy Consultants Ltd(CECL);MEC+
287、analysisGWEC.NET49Indian opportunities in the global supply chainDriven by pressures to reduce wind power LCOE,the global wind supply chain has been heavily reliant on low-cost and high-scale manufacturing in China and Eastern Europe.However,due to concentration risk in the supply chain,countries an
288、d regions are now emphasising the importance of self-reliance.Several factors have contributed to this shift,including the impact of COVID-19 pandemic,geopolitical tensions such as the China-US trade disputes and Russias invasion of Ukraine.Consequently,numerous countries are actively engaged in res
289、horing or“de-risking”initiatives,aiming to diversify their supply chains away from China and reduce vulnerabilities.This strategic shift is expected to have substantial implications for the global supply chain dynamics and the relationships between suppliers and buyers.COVID-19 supply chain disrupti
290、ons Like many other sectors,the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted and imposed a drag upon the global wind supply chain.This prompted the shift of manufacturing and export activity from China to India.India was recognised by leading turbine OEMs like Vestas as a stopgap solution after turbine manufacturing
291、 and component production facilities in China were locked down due to the pandemic.To support their new supply chain strategies,sub-suppliers cooperating with major Western turbine OEMs such as Baetter,LJM,and Flender have either invested in new production facilities or expanded existing facilities
292、in India.US-China trade disputes:The onset of the China-US trade disputes in 2018 triggered a notable transition in the global wind gearbox supply chain,redirecting it from China to India.The worlds three major wind gearbox manufacturers,ZF,Winergy,and NGC,are the primary suppliers to the US and hav
293、e facilities in India.To supply competitively to the US,however,all of them utilised their manufacturing base in China to meet demand.This supply chain model worked well until 2018,when the US imposed a 25%tariff on US$50 billion of Chinese exports including wind gearboxes.The two European suppliers
294、 ZF and Winergy were able to utilise their global footprints to shift to production facilities in both Europe and India.Since NGC was producing exclusively in China at that time,the Chinese gearbox producer experienced more pressure than its European counterparts.NGC started building a gearbox assem
295、bly factory near Chennai in 2019,with an annual production capacity up to 2,000 units.At the same time,ZF and Winergy also expanded production facilities in India.Following the new investment in the past four years,India has now replaced Europe as the worlds second-largest wind gearbox production hu
296、b.Geopolitical concern and building supply chain security Russias invasion of Ukraine has amplified the critical need to reinforce security of supply and reduce dependency on single geographies for materials and components critical for energy systems.To mitigate insecurity in the energy supply chain
297、,countries are now initiating policies aimed at reshoring manufacturing away from China.While this carries the risk of increasing the overall costs of renewable energy and creating new logistics bottlenecks that could slow down deployment,some countries are willing to pay for the redundancy in order
298、 to shore up supply chain resilience.Policies such as reshoring,de-risking and China plus One enhanced manufacturing and export opportunities for countries with relatively low production and labour costs,and established infrastructure and seaways.Against this backdrop of events and geopolitical shif
299、ts,India is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities in the global wind supply chain but it will need to resolve a few critical challenges to do so.From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook GWEC.NET51Attracting investments for the scale-up of ma
300、nufacturing will have massive socio-economic benefits.Wind companies that may be exploring investment decisions in India will make rational business decisions based on multiple factors,including cost-competitiveness,infrastructure highways,ease of doing business and other factors.These decisions are
301、 highly likely to be also influenced by comparative advantages with other countries seeking supply chain investments.To enhance its competitiveness in a supply chain moving towards fragmentation,India must address key priorities like technology alignment,convergence in costs and a supportive tax and
302、 incentive regime.Technology alignment of Indian turbines with other countriesGlobally,wind turbine technology choice depends on available sites and resource in the region.Currently,India produces 2-3.6 MW wind turbines,as a reflection of its current domestic deployment needs56.Figure 12 reviews thi
303、s relationship between localised manufacturing and deployment needs in detail:56 Wind turbine models included in RLMM after the declaration of the new procedure(i.e.1st November 2018)by MNRE.Adani New Industries Ltd.turbine of 5.2MW which is expected to be launched in the Indian market in 2023.7.Ris
304、ing up to global supply chain opportunities From local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook Figure 12:Global product technology roadmap for onshore wind turbines by top 10 countries as per forecast installationsWind speed*GermanyFranceUnited KingdomSpainSwedenT
305、urkeyAustraliaUSABrazil090367506902.02.73.22.12.53.82.03.23.62.83.66.24.64.26.05.04.35.66.03.5IndiaCountryName plate capacity MWHub heightmeterRotor diametermeterLowHighWind Installation-onshore(FY23-2
306、7)GW21.316.021.07.57.312.26.58.27.655.0Note:Top countries are being selected based on forecasted installation between FY 2023 to 27 to map potential global market for Indian supply chain;China is excluded from the list due to its self-sufficiency in wind turbine and component manufacturing*:2021-22
307、wind data is used for all countries;Spain and Sweden data obtained from different OEMs through news article and may not include all installations in 2021-22*:Wind speed is categorized using weighted average of top turbines dataSource:German Wind Energy Association;France Wind Observatory;UK onshore
308、wind farms;Sweden OEM;Turkey Wind Energy Statistics;US wind market;India wind power market directory by CECL;ABEElica(Primary);MEC+analysisGWEC.NET53The primary challenge is technological advancements of wind turbines,which can be mapped on three major parameters:nameplate capacity,hub height and ro
309、tor diameter.Upon analysing the top 10 countries for wind installations until 2027,it can be inferred that India lags behind in terms of nameplate capacity,lags to a lesser degree on rotor diameter and fares well on hub height.In the case of nameplate capacity,limited overlap is seen between the tec
310、hnologies of different countries.Three out of 10 countries,including the US,France,and Sweden,use almost the same size turbines which can be targeted by Indian manufacturers.This opens an immediate market for India at the sub-component level,including generator and gearbox,which accounts for 65 GW u
311、ntil 2027.If India wishes to supply turbines to Brazil,the UK,and Australia,a significant upscaling will be required to open an opportunity of 31 GW market by 2027.In terms of rotor diameter,India holds a good position.Additionally,the US,France,the UK,and Sweden can become major hubs to expand Indi
312、as wind supply chain.Moreover,India can become an export hub for blades as the technological requirements for rotor diameter by other countries are in line with Indias manufactured turbines.India is at a sweet spot in terms of hub height which is in the range of 75-140 meters.While looking at recent
313、 technological installations,countries have installed turbines in the same category,which would support the export of towers from India.Among the top countries in terms of forecast wind installations,the US,Brazil,and France can be directly targeted,accounting for 78 GW of the installations between
314、2023 and 2027,providing a vast opportunity for the Indian wind supply chain to become a part of the global wind market.In September 2020,the US Department of Commerce received Countervailing Duties(CVD)petitions concerning imports of utility-scale wind towers from India and Malaysia,filed on behalf
315、of the Wind Tower Trade Coalition,whose members are Arcosa Wind Towers and Broad Wind Towers.The petitions were accompanied by anti-dumping duty petitions concerning imports of wind towers from India,Malaysia,and Spain.The alleged dumping margins as per the petition filed under the International Tra
316、de Administration(ITA)are as follows:54.1%for India;93.8%for Malaysia;and 73%for Spain.The coalition alleged that India and Malaysia provide countervailable subsidies to producers of wind towers and argued that the imports of the towers are materially injuring,or threatening material injury to,the d
317、omestic industry producing wind towers in the United States.For India,the Department of Commerce initiated an investigation on 69 subsidy programmes,including the provision of goods for and services for Less than adequate remuneration(LTAR),direct/indirect tax programmes,export subsidies,energy and
318、resource subsidies,loans,and grant programmes.In October 2021,the Department of Commerce announced its affirmative final determinations in the antidumping duty investigations and CVD investigation of utility-scale wind towers from India.The final rates imposed were streamlined across all OEMs at 51.
319、9%.Box 1:US Calls for Countervailing Duty on Indian Wind Energy OEMsFrom local wind power to global export hub:India Wind Energy Market Outlook Cost competitiveness and convergenceWhile India has competitive advantage in relatively low labour costs,it still lags behind other countries in
320、terms of manufacturing efficiency and cost-competitiveness.The major challenge is the significant difference in the manufacturing cost of turbines in India versus China.MEC+has drawn a comparative analysis between WTG OEMs:manufacturing in India,importing components and assembling in India,and Chine
321、se local manufacturers.Chinese-made turbines are considered to be the most cost-effective in the global market.The Chinese wind industry has invested heavily in manufacturing technology,and raw materials are available domestically at a cheaper rate than the other regions.Consequently,China has achie
322、ved economies of scale that enables it to produce turbines in the range of INR 3.4-3.8 crore per MW(EUR 0.39 to 0.43 million),which is almost 30%lower than the cost of locally assembled Indian turbines that lie in the range of INR 4.6-4.8 crore per MW(EUR 0.52 to 0.54 million).However,turbines mostl
323、y manufactured in India are the most costly,and lie in the range of INR Indian turbinesChinese turbinesLocally ManufacturedComponents imported and Assembled EUR 0.67-0.71 millionEUR 0.64-0.67 millionEUR 0.52-0.54 millionEUR 0.39-0.43 millionINR crore 5.9-6.3INR crore 5.6 5.9INR crore 4.6 4.8INR cror
324、e 3.4 3.8European OEMs manufacturing in IndiaComponents imported and assembled in IndiaSource:Companies Annual report;Investors Presentation;MEC+AnalysisFigure 13:Cost range of Chinese vs Indian onshore wind turbines INR Crore per MW5.6-6.3 crore per MW(EUR 0.64 to 0.71 million)(see Figure 13).The d
325、ifference of 30%in the cost of turbines is mainly due to:Costs of raw materials:With up to 50-60%57 of a wind turbines 57 Study by IEA on the impact of increasing commodity and energy prices on solar PV,wind and biofuels;SGRE capital market day 2022 presentation(Page no.7)mass made of iron and steel
326、,there will be heightened demand for these materials as the global wind fleet expands.India faces constraints like low supply GWEC.NET55and high cost of raw materials including the steel,copper,and rare earth elements(REEs)required in the wind turbines.In 2022,the difference between the cost of stee
327、l in India58 and China59 was INR 16,000 per tonne(EUR 181),which increased for specific grade steels that were required for wind turbines up to INR 16,400-20,500 per tonne(EUR 186-233).This makes a 9-12%cost difference.Unavailability of components:The challenge of unavailability of components,includ
328、ing large castings,generators,and other critical components,can pose significant challenges for the wind supply chain in India,which in turn leads to a significant cost difference in the turbine components,including blades,towers,and gearboxes,as compared to China.These components contribute 55%of t
329、he total cost of turbines,and a significant cost difference of almost INR 0.9-1 crore per MW(EUR 0.10 to 0.11 million)between Indian and Chinese wind turbines.58 Cost of steel in India MEPS International Ltd.59 Steel Home China Steel Price Index-SHCPIBox 2:Capital expenditures on materials for onsho
330、re and offshore wind The sudden recovery of industrial production following the pandemic shock of 2020 led to fierce competition among different industries for raw materials and bottlenecks in manufacturing capacity and transport logistics such as shipping.This had a significant impact on the wind i
331、ndustry as procurement and freight for raw materials and commodities of wind turbines,including steel,concrete,copper,nickel and a small but high-value volume of REEs,and their subsequent manufacturing into wind turbine components make up the lions share of wind project CAPEX.For onshore wind,turbin
332、e capital costs are estimated to contribute 70%of total CAPEX;viewed as measure of LCOE across a 25-year project lifetime,nearly 50%of onshore wind project LCOE is made up of turbine costs,according to NREL.For offshore wind,turbine capital costs are estimated to contribute 34%of total CAPEX;viewed
333、as a measure of LCOE across a 25-year project lifetime,23%of offshore wind project LCOE is made up of turbine costs.These substantial capital expenditures on turbine procurement of raw materials and commodities make the wind supply chain highly sensitive to upstream cost inflation and trade protection measures.Price spikes for raw materials,as well as price fluctuations for the electricity to powe